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  • Analysis: Loans to Russian soldiers fuel calls for European banks to quit

    Analysis: Loans to Russian soldiers fuel calls for European banks to quit

    BERLIN/LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) – A Russian scheme to grant loan payment holidays to troops fighting in Ukraine, and for banks to write off the entire debt if they are killed or maimed, has added to growing pressure for the remaining overseas lenders in Russia to leave.

    Almost a year since Moscow launched what it calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine, a handful of European banks, including Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International (RBIV.VI) and Italy’s UniCredit (CRDI.MI), are still making money in Russia.

    The loan relief scheme has not only triggered criticism from Ukraine’s central bank, which said it had appealed to Raiffeisen and other banks to stop doing business in Russia, but also from investors concerned about any reputational impact.

    Raiffeisen and UniCredit are both deeply embedded in the Russian financial system and are the only foreign banks on the central bank’s list of 13 “systemically important credit institutions”, underscoring their importance to Russia’s economy, which is grappling with sweeping Western sanctions.

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    Their role in supporting the Russian economy at a critical time for President Vladimir Putin has prompted some investors to go public with their misgivings.

    “Companies should be very careful,” said Kiran Aziz, of Norwegian pension fund KLP, cautioning of a major risk that the banks could be used to “in other ways finance the war”. KLP funds hold shares in both Raiffeisen and UniCredit.

    At the time the payment holiday law was going through parliament in September, Vyacheslav Volodin, the influential speaker of the lower house, made clear its importance to Russia.

    “Soldiers and officers ensure the security of our country and we must be sure that they will be taken care of,” he said.

    Eric Christian Pederson of Nordea Asset Management, which has more than 300 billion euros ($320 billion) under management, said he too was concerned about Raiffeisen and UniCredit’s Russian presence and had raised this with them.

    The requirement that the banks grant payment holidays to soldiers “illustrates the dangers of operating in jurisdictions where companies can … be forced into actions that go directly against their corporate values,” he added.

    “We feel that it is right for companies to withdraw from Russia, given its unprovoked attack on Ukraine,” said Pederson. Refinitiv data shows Nordea owns shares in UniCredit.

    Banks restructured a total of 167,600 loans for military personnel or their family members, worth more than 800 million euros, between Sept. 21 and the end of last year, Russian central bank data shows.

    Raiffeisen said that only 0.2% of its Russian loans are affected by the “government-imposed loan moratorium”, a sum it described as “negligible”. The bank has a total of almost 9 billion euros of loans in Russia, where it has been for more than 25 years, including to companies.

    It made a net profit of roughly 3.8 billion euros last year, thanks in large part to a 2 billion euro plus profit from its Russia business.

    UniCredit, which entered the Russian market almost 20 years ago when it acquired an Austrian bank, said that the rule was “mandatory under the federal law … for all banks”, declining to say how many of its loans had been forgiven.

    The Italian bank added that its business in Russia was focused on companies rather than individuals. Of UniCredit’s more than 20 billion euro total revenue last year, Russia accounted for more than 1 billion euros.

    But despite an initial sharp fall, UniCredit’s shares are now significantly higher than before Russia moved its troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year, while Raiffeisen’s, with a more limited free float, have not recovered.

    “Any profiteering on the ongoing war is not acceptable or aligned with our view of responsible investments,” said a spokesperson for Swedbank Robur, one of Scandinavia’s top investors, adding that reputational risk was a worry.

    Swedbank Robur said it has stakes in both banks, but did not disclose figures.

    Larger institutional investors, including France’s Amundi and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, which advocates responsible investing, declined to comment when asked for their views.

    WINDOW CLOSING?

    Some foreign banks have made relatively quick exits.

    France’s Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) severed its Russia ties in May by selling Rosbank (ROSB.MM) to businessman Vladimir Potanin’s Interros Group.

    But the continued presence of two of Europe’s biggest banks is attracting the attention of regulators at the European Central Bank (ECB), one person familiar with the matter said.

    Andrea Enria, the ECB’s chief supervisor, said the window to quit was “closing a bit” because Russian authorities were taking a more “hostile” approach. But he also voiced support for any bank wanting to reduce their business there or leave.

    Raiffeisen and UniCredit confirmed they were in discussions about Russia with the ECB.

    UniCredit said it kept the ECB “fully and regularly up to date on our strategy of orderly de-risking our exposure to Russia”.

    But with money still to be made, Raiffeisen saw profit from its business in Russia more than triple last year.

    Meanwhile, Russian savers lodged more than 20 billion euros with the bank, which offers a place to deposit funds with fewer sanctions risks.

    This means there is no great impetus for banks to leave Russia, despite regulatory pressure.

    And in Austria, which has close historical and economic ties to eastern Europe and Russia, politicians are largely silent on Raiffeisen’s continuing Russian presence, which in recent months prompted protests outside its headquarters.

    Johann Strobl, Raiffeisen’s CEO, has said he is examining options for the Russian business, although points out that any move is complicated, having earlier said that the bank is not “a sausage stand” that could be closed overnight.

    For some the question is more about morality than money.

    Heinrich Schaller, head of RBI’s third largest shareholder Raiffeisenlandesbank Oberoesterreich and deputy chairman of Raiffeisen, is among those to have aired doubts about staying.

    “Of course it is a question of morals,” he said recently. “No doubt about it.”

    Whatever shareholders may say, a decree by Putin is likely to make getting out of Russia difficult. It banned investors from so-called unfriendly countries from selling shares in banks, unless the Russian President grants an exemption.

    ($1 = 0.9376 euros)

    Additional reporting by Alexandra Schwarz-Goerlich in Vienna and Tom Sims in Frankfurt; Writing by John O’Donnell; Editing by Alexander Smith

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Adani’s market losses top $100 bln as crisis shockwaves spread

    Adani’s market losses top $100 bln as crisis shockwaves spread

    • Market rout deepens in Indian tycoon Adani’s shares
    • Adani Enterprises loses $26 bln in value since report
    • Falls after Adani pulled share sale, investors spooked
    • Analysts say signals confidence crisis in Indian market

    NEW DELHI/MUMBAI, Feb 2 (Reuters) – Adani’s market losses swelled above $100 billion on Thursday, sparking worries about a potential systemic impact a day after the Indian group’s flagship firm abandoned its $2.5 billion stock offering.

    Another challenge for Adani on Thursday came when S&P Dow Jones Indices said it would remove Adani Enterprises from widely used sustainability indices, effective Feb. 7, which would make the shares less appealing to sustainability-minded funds.

    In addition, India’s National Stock Exchange said it has placed on additional surveillance shares of Adani Enterprises <ADEL.NS>, Adani Ports <APSE.NS> and Ambuja Cements <ABUJ.NS>. read more

    However, Adani Group Chairman Gautam Adani is in talks with lenders to prepay and release pledged shares as he seeks to restore confidence in the financial health of his conglomerate, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday. read more

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    The shock withdrawal of Adani Enterprises’ share sale marks a dramatic setback for founder Adani, the school dropout-turned-billionaire whose fortunes rose rapidly in recent years but have plunged in just a week after a critical research report by U.S.-based short-seller Hindenburg Research.

    Aborting the share sale sent shockwaves across markets, politics and business. Adani stocks plunged, opposition lawmakers called for a wider probe and India’s central bank sprang into action to check on the exposure of banks to the group. Meanwhile, Citigroup’s (C.N) wealth unit stopped making margin loans to clients against Adani Group securities.

    The crisis marks an dramatic turn of fortune for Adani, who has in recent years forged partnerships with foreign giants such as France’s TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) and attracted investors such as Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company as he pursues a global expansion stretching from ports to the power sector.

    In a shock move late on Wednesday, Adani called off the share sale as a stocks rout sparked by Hindenburg’s criticisms intensified, despite it being fully subscribed a day earlier.

    “Adani may have started a confidence crisis in Indian shares and that could have broader market implications,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank.

    Adani Enterprises shares tumbled 27% on Thursday, closing at their lowest level since March 2022.

    Other group companies also lost further ground, with 10% losses at Adani Total Gas (ADAG.NS), Adani Green Energy (ADNA.NS) and Adani Transmission (ADAI.NS), while Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone shed nearly 7%.

    Since Hindenburg’s report on Jan. 24, group companies have lost nearly half their combined market value. Adani Enterprises – described as an incubator of Adani’s businesses – has lost $26 billion in market capitalisation.

    Adani is also no longer Asia’s richest person, having slid to 16th in the Forbes rankings of the world’s wealthiest people, with his net worth almost halved to $64.6 billion in a week.

    The 60-year-old had been third on the list, behind billionaires Elon Musk and Bernard Arnault.

    His rival Mukesh Ambani of Reliance Industries (RELI.NS) is now Asia’s richest person.

    Reuters Graphics

    BROADER CONCERNS

    Adani’s plummeting stock and bond prices have raised concerns about the likelihood of a wider impact on India’s financial system.

    India’s central bank has asked local banks for details of their exposure to the Adani Group, government and banking sources told Reuters on Thursday.

    CLSA estimates that Indian banks were exposed to about 40% of the $24.5 billion of Adani Group debt in the fiscal year to March 2022.

    Dollar bonds issued by entities of Adani Group extended losses on Thursday, with notes of Adani Green Energy crashing to a record low. Adani Group entities made scheduled coupon payments on outstanding U.S. dollar-denominated bonds on Thursday, Reuters reported citing sources.

    “We see the market is losing confidence on how to gauge where the bottom can be and although there will be short-covering rebounds, we expect more fundamental downside risks given more private banks (are) likely to cut or reduce margin,” said Monica Hsiao, chief investment officer of Hong Kong-based credit fund Triada Capital.

    In New Delhi, opposition lawmakers submitted notices in parliament demanding discussion of the short-seller’s report.

    The Congress Party called for a Joint Parliamentary Committee be set up or a Supreme Court monitored investigation, while some lawmakers shouted anti-Adani slogans inside parliament, which was adjourned for the day.

    ADANI VS HINDENBURG

    Adani made acquisitions worth $13.8 billion in 2022, Dealogic data showed, its highest ever and more than double the previous year.

    The cancelled fundraising was critical for Adani, which had said it would use $1.33 billion to fund green hydrogen projects, airports facilities and greenfield expressways, and $508 million to repay debt at some units.

    Hindenburg’s report alleged an improper use of offshore tax havens and stock manipulation by the Adani Group. It also raised concerns about high debt and the valuations of seven listed Adani companies.

    The Adani Group has denied the accusations, saying the allegation of stock manipulation had “no basis” and stemmed from an ignorance of Indian law. It said it has always made the necessary regulatory disclosures.

    Adani had managed to secure share sale subscriptions on Tuesday even though the stock’s market price was below the issue’s offer price. Maybank Securities and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority had bid for the anchor portion of the issue, investments which will now be reimbursed by Adani.

    Late on Wednesday, the group’s founder said he was withdrawing the sale given the share price fall, adding his board felt going ahead with it “will not be morally correct”.

    Reporting by Chris Thomas, Nallur Sethuraman, Tanvi Mehta, Ira Dugal, Aftab Ahmed, Sumeet Chatterjee, Anshuman Daga, Summer Zhen, Ross Kerber and Bansari Mayur Kamdar; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Jason Neely and Alexander Smith

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  • Adani crisis ignites Indian contagion fears, credit warnings

    Adani crisis ignites Indian contagion fears, credit warnings

    • Both houses of parliament adjourned amid row
    • Flagship Adani firm plunges 35% at one point
    • Moody’s warns will find it harder to raise capital

    NEW DELHI, Feb 3 (Reuters) – Financial contagion fears spread in India on Friday as the Adani Group’s crisis worsened, with ratings agency Moody’s warning the conglomerate may struggle to raise capital and S&P cutting the outlook on two of its businesses.

    Chaotic scenes in both houses of India’s parliament led to their adjournment on Friday as some lawmakers demanded an inquiry after a dramatic meltdown in the stock market values of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani’s companies.

    The crisis was triggered by a Hindenburg Research report last week in which the U.S.-based short-seller accused the Adani Group of stock manipulation and unsustainable debt.

    Adani Group, one of India’s top conglomerates, has rejected the criticism and denied wrongdoing in detailed rebuttals, but that has failed to arrest the unabated fall in its shares.

    In the latest sign of the crisis widening, India’s ministry of corporate affairs has begun a preliminary review of Adani Group’s financial statements and other regulatory submissions made over the years, two government officials told Reuters.

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    Although shares in Adani companies recovered after sharp falls earlier on Friday, the seven listed firms have still lost about half their market value, totalling more than $100 billion since Hindenburg published its report on Jan. 24.

    Moody’s warned the share plunge could hit the Adani Group’s ability to raise capital, although fellow credit ratings agency Fitch saw no immediate impact on its ratings.

    “These adverse developments are likely to reduce the group’s ability to raise capital to fund committed capex or refinance maturing debt over the next 1-2 years. We recognise that a portion of the capex is deferrable,” Moody’s said.

    For Adani, a former school drop-out from Gujarat, the western home state of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the crisis presents the biggest reputational and business challenge of his life, as his firm struggles to assuage investor concerns.

    Amid fears the turmoil could spill over into the broader financial system, some Indian politicians have called for a wider investigation, and sources have told Reuters the central bank has asked lenders for details of exposure to the group.

    “Contagion concerns are widening, but still limited to the banking sector,” Charu Chanana, a market strategist with Saxo Markets in Singapore, said on Friday.

    The Reserve Bank of India said the country’s banking system remains resilient and stable. State Bank of India said it was not concerned about the exposure to Adani Group, but further financing to its projects would be “evaluated on its own merit”.

    Adani Enterprises shares closed 1.4% higher, after earlier slumping 35% to hit their lowest since March 2021. That low took its losses to nearly $33.6 billion since last week, a 70% fall.

    Shares fell 5% in Adani Total Gas (ADAG.NS), a joint venture with France’s TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA), which said its exposure to Adani companies was limited.

    Traffic moves past the logo of the Adani Group installed at a roundabout on the ring road in Ahmedabad, India, Feb. 2, 2023. REUTERS/Amit Dave

    Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSE.NS) was up 8%, while Adani Transmission (ADAI.NS) and Adani Green Energy (ADNA.NS) were both down 10%.

    “There is a risk that investor concerns about the group’s governance and disclosures are larger than we have currently factored into our ratings,” S&P said, as it cut its outlook on Adani Ports and Adani Electricity to negative from stable.

    India’s divestment secretary Tuhin Kanta Pandey told Reuters that Life Insurance Corp (LIC) shareholders and customers should not be concerned about its exposure to the Adani Group.

    State-run LIC (LIFI.NS) has a 4.23% stake in the flagship Adani Enterprises, while its other exposures include a 9.14% stake in Adani Ports.

    Reuters Graphics

    ‘ONE INSTANCE’

    Adani, 60, has in recent years forged partnerships with, and attracted investment from, foreign giants as he pursued global expansion in industries from ports to power.

    The market and financial crisis means foreign investors, many already underweight on India as they consider its stock market overpriced, are reducing exposure.

    “One instance, however much talked about globally it may be … is not going to be indicative of how well Indian financial markets are governed,” Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told Network18 when asked about the market weakness.

    Reuters Graphics

    Hindenburg’s report said key listed Adani companies had “substantial debt” and shares in the seven listed firms had a downside of 85% due to what it called sky-high valuations.

    The Adani Group has called the report baseless and said over the past decade, its companies have “consistently de-levered”.

    The listed Adani firms now have a combined market value of $107.5 billion, versus $218 billion before the report.

    That has forced Adani to cede the crown of Asia’s richest person to Indian rival Mukesh Ambani of Reliance Industries Ltd (RELI.NS), and he has slid to 17th in Forbes’ list of the world’s wealthiest people.

    He had ranked third, behind Elon Musk and Bernard Arnault.

    Reporting by Aditya Kalra, Chris Thomas, Ankur Banerjee, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Shivam Patel, Tanvi Mehta and Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Clarence Fernandez, Mark Potter and Alexander Smith

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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