TOKYO—President Trump said Japanese auto giant Toyota is poised to invest $10 billion in auto plants in the U.S., coming as Tokyo released some details about the over half a trillion dollars it has pledged to invest in America as part of a trade deal.
Trump made the remark while addressing U.S. military personnel in Japan, saying that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told him of the carmaker’s plan.
The Danish wind turbine maker last year unveiled plans to build a new blade factory in Szczecin, near the Baltic Sea coast, to support Europe’s build-out of offshore wind parks.
Spain’s electricity-grid operator said there was no risk of an imminent second major blackout in the country after detecting two sharp voltage variations in recent weeks.
Red Electrica which operates Spain’s grid, and in which the Spanish government owns a 20% stake, said the recent voltage swings didn’t pose a risk to the supply of electricity because they didn’t surpass the acceptable limits.
The Biden administration’s announcement Friday that it’s pausing liquefied natural gas export approvals sparked political backlash, drew cheers from climate activists and stoked uncertainty in energy markets, but is unlikely to see the U.S. give up its title as the world’s top LNG exporter.
The U.S. will delay its decisions on new LNG exports to non-free trade agreement countries, allowing time for the Energy Department to update the underlying analyses for LNG export authorizations, the White House said.
Those analyses are roughly five years old and “no longer adequately account for considerations” such as potential cost increases for American consumers and manufacturers or the “latest assessment of the impact of greenhouse gas emissions,” it said.
The Biden administration likely “realizes the role of LNG in foreign policy, but at the same time it needs to show the Democrat base that it is doing something for climate change,” said Anas Alhajji, an independent energy expert and managing partner at Energy Outlook Advisors, pointing out that the announcement comes during a presidential election year.
“Delaying one project or stopping it may not be a big deal, but it is a problem if it becomes a trend,” he said in emailed commentary.
Environmental groups, which have pushed for action, cheered the decision.
The 12 impacted projects in the U.S. “would spew out as much climate-warming pollution as 223 coal plants per year, and they present explosion risks to the communities where they’re located and emit other health-harming chemicals,” the Sierra Club, an environmental group, said in a statement welcoming the decision.
Top exporter
The announcement is particularly important for a nation that became the world’s biggest LNG exporter in the span of less than a decade.
The U.S. became the world’s largest LNG exporter during the first half of 2022 on the back of increases in LNG export capacity, international natural gas and LNG prices, and global demand, particularly in Europe, according to the Energy Information Administration.
The country’s exports of LNG climbed to a fresh record in November 2023, with the EIA reporting domestic exports of 386.2 billion cubic feet, up from 384.4 bcf a month earlier. Exports in December 2016 were at just 41.8 bcf.
U.S. LNG exports soared after 2016.
EIA
With 90% of U.S. LNG going to non-free trade agreement destinations, withholding licensing effectively “halts project development,” John Miller, managing director, ESG and sustainability policy at TD Cowen wrote in a Friday note.
Equities
LNG equities with operating facilities likely won’t benefit from the administration’s announcement, at least not immediately, until the impacts of this pause in export approvals to non-FTA countries becomes more clear, Jason Gabelman, director, sustainability & energy transition at TD Cowen said.
U.S. companies with government approvals that have not been sanctioned, “could have a higher probability of moving forward this year, albeit modestly” as offtakers may be hesitant to sign up to new U.S. projects with LNG development getting “politicized,” he said. Among those, he pointed out approvals for proposed liquefaction units at NextDecade Corp.’s NEXT, +2.30%
Rio Grande LNG export facility project in Brownsville, Texas.
At the same time, it would not be a surprise if U.S. LNG companies pursuing growth that do not yet have non-FTA approval see downside pressure, said Gabelman.
LNG projects take around 4 years to build and any delays to project sanctions today will take “multiple years to manifest in the market,” he said.
Still, the U.S. announcement “introduces the risk of more stringent oversight that could limit new U.S. capacity” more than four years out, Gabelman said.
Companies that supply equipment to LNG liquefaction projects include Baker Hughes Co. BKR, +0.59%
and Chart Industries Inc. GTLS, -7.54%,
said Marc Bianchi, a senior energy analyst at TD Cowen.
Any slowing of approval would create “overhand on order growth,” he said.
Climate change
The White House said Friday that its decision will not impact the ability of the U.S. to continue supplying LNG to its allies in the near term but also acknowledged environmental concerns.
“I think we’ve got to be clear eyed about the challenges that we face. The climate crisis is an existential crisis, and we’ve got to be, I think, really forward leaning into making sure that we’re taking that head on,” said Ali Zaidi, the White House national climate adviser, told reporters Friday.
He added that given the number of approvals already completed, the number of projects under construction are set to double existing capacity with approvals beyond that set to double capacity yet again.
“So there’s a long runway here, and we’re taking a step back and thinking, OK, let’s take a hard look before that runway continues to build out,” he said.
Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise, argued that U.S. LNG exports actually reduce global carbon emissions as natural gas typically “displaces coal to generate electricity in countries such as China and India.”
They also improve global energy security as U.S. natural gas is becoming Europe’s primary energy supplier, replacing Russia, he said.
In a statement Friday, Sen. Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat and chairman of the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said that if the Biden administration has facts to prove that additional LNG export capacity would hurt Americans, it needs to make that information public. But if the pause is “another political ploy to pander to keep-it-in-the-ground climate activists,” he said he would “do everything in my power to end this pause immediately.
Manchin plans to hold a hearing on the decision in the coming weeks.
Market impact
The U.S. decision to delay new LNG export permits is unlikely to have an impact on domestic natural-gas supplies or prices, said Energy Outlook Advisors’ Alhajji.
LNG prices and the rate at which new LNG export terminals can be constructed help determine LNG export volumes, the EIA said, and higher LNG exports can result in upward pressure on U.S. natural-gas prices, while lower U.S. LNG exports can pressure prices.
On Friday, natural gas for February delivery NG00, +0.23%
NGG24, +0.26%
settled at $2.71 per million British thermal units, up 7.7% for the week.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is likely to keep its position as the world’s top LNG exporter, according to Tortoise’s Thummel.
The U.S. is the currently the largest LNG exporter at almost 12 bcf per day, with Qatar coming in second, he said.
Qatar is expanding its LNG export capacity and is expected to have the ability to export almost 20 bcf per day by 2028, he said. The EIA reported recently that Qatar has averaged 10.3 bcf per day in exports during the last 10 years.
That would mark sizable growth. But the EIA reported in November that LNG export capacity from North America is likely to more than double from around 11.4 bcf per day to 24.3 bcf per day by the end of 2027.
The EIA said North America’s LNG export capacity is likely to more than double by 2027.
EIA
Given expected growth in U.S. LNG export capacity, the U.S. is likely to “remain the largest exporter of LNG in the world” despite the U.S. announcement, said Thummel.
Oil futures fell on Friday, but finished off the session’s lows to eke out a gain for the week — the first for U.S. and global benchmark crude prices in eight weeks.
Attacks on ships traveling through the Red Sea, blamed on Yemen’s Houthi rebels, raised the potential for disruptions to the transport of oil and other goods, providing some support for prices.
Oil saw larger declines early Friday after a Federal Reserve official walked back dovish comments made earlier this week by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, helping to strengthen the U.S. dollar.
Price action
West Texas Intermediate crude for January CL00, +0.49%
CLF24, +0.49%
declined by 15 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $71.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with prices ending 0.3% higher for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
BRNG24, +0.52%,
the global benchmark, fell 6 cents, or nearly 0.1%, to $76.55 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, settling 0.9% higher for the week.
January gasoline RBF24, -0.16%
added 0.9% to $2.14 a gallon, up almost 4.3% for the week, while January heating oil HOF24, +0.20%
climbed 1.1% to $2.62 a gallon on Nymex, marking a weekly rise of 1.5%.
Natural gas for January delivery NGF24, -0.88%
gained 4.1% to $2.49 per million British thermal units, but still logged a weekly loss of 3.5%.
The Red Sea is “one of the hot pockets of seaborne crude flows,” accounting for approximately 10% of global volume, said Manish Raj, managing director at Velandera Energy Partners. “Although the attackers lack sophistication … shipping crews are even less sophisticated, making them easy targets.”
A potential blockage of the Red Sea route would be “chaotic indeed, but not nearly as detrimental as blockage of [the] Strait of Hormuz near Iran, for which there is no viable alternative,” Raj said.
For now, there is concern over higher insurance costs for these ships, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group.
“With ships in the Red Sea continuing to be at high risk, ‘it won’t take that much for the market’ to see oil prices spike if an oil tanker should be hit.”
— Phil Flynn, Price Futures Group
Obviously, the risk to oil supply is large, although “so far, most of the attacks have been on cargo ships and not oil-related ships,” Flynn told MarketWatch.
However, as ships in the Red Sea continue to be at high risk, “it won’t take that much for the market” to see oil prices spike if an oil tanker is hit, Flynn said.
For the week, both U.S. and global benchmark crude prices posted gains.
“The combination of lower U.S. inventories, stronger economic data, and improved OPEC compliance [with production cuts] for the month of November were the highlights of the week,” said Peter McNally, global head of sector analysts at Third Bridge.
“However, there are ongoing seasonal challenges that forced OPEC to sustain production cuts through the first quarter of 2024, so it remains to be seen if they have done enough to prevent inventories from continuing their upward trend,” he said.
Oil had been trading lower early Friday after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams told CNBC that it is “premature” to discuss whether it is time to cut interest rates. “We aren’t really talking about cutting interest rates right now,” Williams said.
That ran contrary to Powell’s comments Wednesday that Fed officials were starting to discuss when to cut rates.
After the euphoria in the U.S. stock market over the Powell “pivot party” on Wednesday, we got a “wake-up call” from Williams when he pushed back on market expectations for a March rate cut, Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said in market commentary.
Oil futures fell Monday to their lowest levels in more than two weeks, building on recent declines that came after a round of voluntary production cuts announced by OPEC+ left traders skeptical about compliance.
Price action
West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery CL00, -0.63%
BRNG24, -0.44%
dropped $1.29, or 1.6%, $77.59 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
January gasoline was down 0.1% at $2.1198 a gallon, while January heating oil HOF24, +0.85%
edge down 0.4% to $2.6501 a gallon.
January natural gas NGF24, -4.48%
declined 5.3% to $2.664 per million British thermal units.
Market drivers
The OPEC+ deal last week was “unconvincing, to say the least, and oil prices have been in decline ever since,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.
“With markets seemingly anticipating more of an economic slowdown next year, the announcement simply doesn’t go far enough,” he said in market commentary. “It’s another large cut but how much will actually be delivered on? And are we at the limits of what the alliance is willing to achieve to balance the markets?”
Crude prices ended last week with back-to-back losses after OPEC+ producers on Thursday agreed to voluntarily cut around 2.2 million barrels a day (mbd) of crude from the market in the first quarter of next year, a figure that included a widely expected extension of Saudi Arabia’s 1 mbd voluntary output cut and Russia’s 300,000 barrel a day cut to crude exports.
OPEC+ cuts “look like they have rebalanced the market” for the first quarter of next year, but without further OPEC+ cuts in supply from the second quarter, “oil looks to register a 1 mbd surplus in that quarter, analysts at Citi wrote in a note dated Monday.
The voluntary nature of the overall reductions sparked skepticism around enforcement and compliance, analysts said.
“Soft price action since the OPEC+ meeting is reflective of an investor cohort that remains perplexed on how to deploy risk. The near-term path of least resistance is lower, given the degree of ambiguity and lack of catalysts,” Michael Tran, commodity and digital intelligence strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said in a Sunday note.
“Oil has become a ‘show me’ type market. Now here comes the hard part: Prices will likely remain volatile and potentially directionless until the market sees clear data points pertaining to the voluntary output cuts,” he said.
Those cuts won’t be implemented until next month, with country-level production and export data to follow. That means it will be a “long and volatile” two months before there is even preliminary clarity on compliance — “a long stretch for a market that is seeing a high degree of uncertainty, lack of risk deployment and a liquidity vacuum,” Tran wrote.
Traders were also monitoring developments in the Middle East following an escalation of maritime attacks related to the Israel-Hamas war.
Ballistic missiles fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels hit three commercial ships Sunday in the Red Sea, while a U.S. warship shot down three drones in self-defense during the hourslong assault, according to the U.S. military. The Iranian-backed Houthis claimed two of the attacks.
Oil futures spiked higher following the Hamas attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7 but failed to challenge their late September highs. Crude subsequently fell back as fears of a broader conflict that could threaten crude flows faded, trading well below levels seen just before the start of the conflict.
A weak session is setting up for Tuesday, with oil under pressure after unexpectedly downbeat China export data. So the preference is for bonds this morning, as stock futures tilt south.
Onto our call of the day, which deals with another worry — a wall of government debt that will be with us for decades. It comes from Bridgewater’s highly regraded co-chief investment officer Bob Prince, who was speaking at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit on Tuesday, hosted by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
Prince touches on asset liability mismatches, such as what was seen during the banking crisis earlier this year. He explains that one big factor behind a crisis is when a certain economic regime exists for an extended period of time and “people extrapolate that into the future on the basis of leverage and asset liability mismatches. Then you get a shift in that regime.”
The events of March, which saw the collapse of SVB, Signature Bank and Silvergate, were a perfect example of that, Prince says. Then he turns to what he calls the “broader effects of a transition from 15 years of abundant free money,” that was first used to battle deleveraging pressures in the financial system in 2008 and then the pandemic.
One long-term effect of that gets particular attention by Prince, who points out how U.S. government Treasury debt to GDP was about 70% in 2008, around where it had been for decades.
“The after effects of offsetting deleveraging and pandemic, you’ve had a massive wealth shift from the public sector to the private sector and that’s left the government with debt to GDP up from 70% up to 120%. And the particular vulnerability of that is in the debt rollovers and the gross issuance that you’re going to see in the coming decades . You’re stuck with that debt until you pay it off and that means you have to roll it over like anybody else does,” said Prince.
“Gross debt issuance will be running at 25% for as far as the eye can see, that means every year you’re issuing 25% of GDP in debt. In 1960, the average amount of debt issuance was 12% of GDP,” he said.
Prince says most people really don’t pay attention to debt rollovers because they just assume those will get done, but notes that when countries have experienced balance of payments crisis in the past, mostly emerging markets, that is because they have been unable to roll over that debt.
In the U.S. case, it’s crucial to look at who is holding the debt, particularly the 27% held by foreign investors and 18% by central banks. “Foreign investors would normally be a reliable source of investment but it does heighten sensitivity to geopolitical risk, and so geopolitical risk converges with debt rollovers and gross issuance of the Treasury is an issue that you need to pay attention to in the coming years.
While not an “acute problem,” he says, it’s a lingering one, and when it comes to central banks it’s also unclear whether their holdings also present a “rollover risk.”
Prince also touches on the fact that that all that “abundant free money” has fueled a private-equity boom, but with interest rates now at 8% instead of 2% or 3%, “the pace and transaction cycle is bound to slow,” and they are starting to see that.
“When we talk to institutional investors around the world, many of them are experiencing liquidity issues right now and the liquidity issues result from the fact so much money was allocated to private assets and the transaction cycle is slowing,” he said.
A team of analysts at Citigroup led by Nathan Sheets have also weighed in on government debt, telling clients in a new note that “it’s unwise for policy makers to experiment or test” where the threshold for too much debt lies. Here’s their chart showing the bleak trajectory:
Dirk Willer, head of global asset allocation at Citigroup, said a debt crisis scenario in the U.S. would likely mean a selloff of risk assets globally. He notes that bonds in rival countries may not be the best bet as they don’t always benefit. And both gold and bitcoin underperformed during the U.K. gilt crisis, so those may be out.
UBSG, +2.79%
swung to a $785 million quarterly loss on lingering effects of its Credit Suisse takeover, but it pulled in $33 billion in new deposits and shares are up.
The U.S. trade deficit climbed 5% in September to $61.5 billion as imports rebounded. Still to come is consumer credit at 3 p.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks at 9:15 a.m., followed by Fed Gov. Christopher Waller at 10 a.m.
According to this recent JPMorgan survey, two-thirds of investors are ready to start pumping more money into equities, while just 19% plan to increase bond exposure. Also, note that 67% also said they did not expect performance of the Magnificent 7 stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta — to “crack before the end of the year.”
Top tickers
These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:
Orsted booked a 28.4 billion Danish kroner ($4.02 billion) impairment charge in the third quarter related to its U.S. offshore wind portfolio and said it will stop development of two wind farm projects off the coast of New Jersey amid spiraling costs and supplier delays.
The Danish renewable-energy company had previously warned of up to DKK16 billion of impairments after flagging increasing supply-chain risks at U.S. projects, while a lack of favorable progress on U.S. tax credits and higher interest rates were also sending project costs higher.
Nokia on Thursday set out plans to cut its workforce by up to 14,000 as it reported a steep drop in third-quarter profit.
The telecom equipment maker said it’s looking to reduce its workforce to between 72,000 and 77,000 workers, from 86,000 now, by the end of 2026. Nokia NOKIA, -4.14%
NOK, -2.87%
said that could save the company as much as €1.2 billion ($1.3 billion), or up to 15% of personnel expenses.
“We continue to believe in the mid to long term attractiveness of our markets. Cloud Computing and AI revolutions will not materialize without significant investments in networks that have vastly improved capabilities. However, given the uncertain timing of the market recovery, we are now taking decisive action on three levels: strategic, operational and cost. I believe these actions will make us stronger and deliver significant value for our shareholders,” said Pekka Lundmark, president and chief executive, in a statement.
The company didn’t provide a regional breakdown of the job cuts but said it will “act quickly” as it targeted mobile networks, cloud and network services, as well as its corporate function, for cuts.
Nokia’s profit dropped by 69% to €133 million, or 2 cents a share, as revenue fell 20% to €4.98 billion. Analysts polled by Visible Alpha forecast earnings of €395 million on revenue of €5.66 billion.
Nokia shares dropped 4%, and have fallen by 28% this year.
In echoes of what rival Ericsson ERIC.B, -1.21%
said on Tuesday, Nokia said a slowdown in India’s 5G deployment could not offset the situation in North America.
Nokia said it’s tracking toward the lower end of its net sales range for 2023 and toward the mid-point of its comparable operating margin range.
Uranium prices have reached their highest level in more than a decade as a global supply shortage persists, with the bull market for uranium investments still in its “earliest days.”
The market is “definitely in a structural deficit as demand is growing at a 5% annual rate and the current (2023) gap between global production and consumption remains at over 50 million pounds,” Scott Melbye, executive vice president at mining company Uranium Energy Corp. UEC, +0.78%,
told MarketWatch.
Weekly spot uranium prices stood at $72.75 a pound as of Oct. 2, the highest since February 2011, according to data from nuclear-fuel consulting firm UxC, and were last at $69 as of Oct. 9. Weekly prices have climbed nearly 45% since the end of last year.
Weekly prices for uranium have climbed around 45% year to date, data from UxC show.
UxC
In late August, Jonathan Hinze, president at UxC, told MarketWatch that the market was seeing the “best set up for nuclear power expansion” that he’d ever seen. That observation still holds, he said.
It is clear that the uranium supply/demand balance remains “extremely tight, and it will likely only get tighter” in the coming 12 to 24 months as demand continues to rise, “while new supplies are taking more time to materialize, and inventories keep getting drawn down,” he said.
Since late August, financial players, including hedge and publicly traded funds active in uranium, have been quite active buying additional uranium off the spot market, said Hinze. These funds “clearly believe that prices are set to rise further, and investors are therefore adding money to their coffers to allow them to buy physical uranium.”
This is demand that isn’t fully anticipated in the market and this has added to the overall positive demand picture, he said.
Price pullback
Still, Melbye pointed out that uranium prices have pulled back a bit more recently as some traders took some “very handsome profits on their accumulated long positions.”
That pullback may have also come as an “overreaction,” he said, to news from Kazakhstan, which produced the world’s largest share of uranium from mines in 2022, according to the World Nuclear Association. Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan’s national operator for the export and import of uranium, announced in late September a return to full production in 2025 to meet global nuclear energy demand.
Melbye believes there was an overreaction in uranium prices because “this will ultimately have little impact on Western supply and demand as most analysts had them producing close to those levels by that time in their forecasts.”
Even with that production assumption, the market is “still dramatically undersupplied,” and based on Melbye’s estimation, requires eight to 10 new mines starting up globally by 2030, he said.
And while uranium has been among the best performing commodities year to date, it has only recently reached the level which “incentivizes the world’s best mines,” he said.
This bull market in uranium investments is “still in its earliest days,” said Melbye.
Among the exchange-traded funds, the Global X Uranium ETF URA
has gained more than 25% on the year through Friday afternoon, while the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF URNM
has added almost 36%. The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust SRUUF,
a closed-end fund, trades nearly 39% higher.
Broader new mine developments with significant capital investments in an inflationary environment require higher prices to move ahead, Melbye said. “Even at those levels, the long lead times needed to achieve these necessary start ups could leave the market in a short squeeze for several years.”
The recent spot market move lower in prices marks a “temporary pause, and not a peak,” he said. “Buyers should be active on this welcome dip.”
Supply ‘challenges’
Contributing to supply concerns, a July coup has disrupted mining operations in the country of Niger in West Africa. Niger produced just over 4% of the world’s uranium in 2022, according to World Nuclear News.
The coup caused borders to close, and major uranium mine and mill operation called Somair has been halted, said UxC’s Hinze. The mine, operated by the French company Orano, sells most of uranium to customers in Europe, he said.
Meanwhile, Cameco Corp. CCJ, +0.64%,
one of the world’s largest providers of uranium, said it’s encountered challenges at its mine and milling operation in Canada. The company now expects to produce nearly 3 million pounds of uranium concentrate less this year than previously anticipated, said Hinze.
“These production challenges add to the overall view that the supply/demand balance is very tight and will get even tighter,” he said.
Two things investors can be sure about: Nothing lasts forever and the stock market always overreacts. The spiking of yields on long-term U.S. Treasury securities has been breathtaking, and it has led to remarkable declines for some sectors and possible bargains for contrarian investors who can commit for the long term.
First we will show how the sectors of the S&P 500
have performed. Then we will look at price-to-earnings valuations for the sectors and compare them to long-term averages. Then we will screen the entire index for companies trading below their long-term forward P/E valuation averages and narrow the list to companies most favored by analysts.
Here are total returns, with dividends reinvested, for the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, with broad indexes below. The sectors are sorted by ascending total returns this year through Monday.
Returns for 2022 are also included, along with those since the end of 2021. Last year’s weakest sector, communications services, has been this year’s strongest performer. This sector includes Alphabet Inc. GOOGL
and Meta Platforms Inc. META,
which have returned 52% and 155% this year, respectively, but are still down since the end of 2021. To the right are returns for the past week and month through Monday.
On Monday, the S&P 500 Utilities sector had its worst one-day performance since 2020, with a 4.7% decline. Investors were reacting to the jump in long-term interest rates.
Here is a link to the U.S. Treasury Department’s summary of the daily yield curve across maturities for Treasury securities.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes
jumped 10 basis points in only one day to 4.69% on Monday. A month earlier the 10-year yield was only 4.27%. Also on Monday, the yield on 20-year Treasury bonds
rose to 5.00% from 4.92% on Friday. It was up from 4.56% a month earlier.
The Treasury yield curve is still inverted, with 3-month T-bills
yielding 5.62% on Monday, but that was up only slightly from a month earlier. An inverted yield curve has traditionally signaled that bond investors expect a recession within a year and a lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Demand for bonds pushes their prices down. But the reverse has happened over recent days, with the selling of longer-term Treasury securities pushing yields up rapidly.
Another way to illustrate the phenomenon is to look at how the Federal Reserve has shifted the U.S. money supply. Odeon Capital analyst Dick Bove wrote in a note to clients on Friday that “the Federal Reserve has not deviated from its policy to defeat inflation by tightening monetary policy,” as it has shrunk its balance sheet (mostly Treasury securities) to $8.1 trillion from $9 trillion in March 2022. He added: “The M2 money supply was $21.8 trillion in March 2022; today it is $20.8 trillion. You cannot get tighter than these numbers indicate.”
Then on Tuesday, Bove illustrated the Fed’s tightening and the movement of the 10-year yield with two charts:
Odeon Capital Group, Bloomberg
Bove said he believes the bond market has gotten it wrong, with the inverted yield curve reflecting expectations of rate cuts next year. If he is correct, investors can expect longer-term yields to keep shooting up and a normalization of the yield curve.
This has set up a brutal environment for utility stocks, which are typically desired by investors who are seeking dividend income. In a market in which you can receive a yield of 5.5% with little risk over the short term, and in which you can lock in a long-term yield of about 5%, why take a risk in the stock market? And if you believe that the core inflation rate of 3.7% makes a 5% yield seem paltry, keep in mind that not all investors think the same way. Many worry less about the inflation rate because large components of official inflation calculations, such as home prices and car prices, don’t affect everyone every year.
We cannot know when this current selloff of longer-term bonds will end, or how much of an effect it will have on the stock market. But sharp declines in the stock market can set up attractive price points for investors looking to go in for the long haul.
Screening for lower valuations and high ratings
A combination of rising earnings estimates and price declines could shed light on potential buying opportunities, based on forward price-to-earnings ratios.
Let’s look at the sectors again, in the same order, this time to show their forward P/E ratios, based on weighted rolling 12-month consensus estimates for earnings per share among analysts polled by FactSet:
Sector or index
Current P/E to 5-year average
Current P/E to 10-year average
Current P/E to 15-year average
Forward P/E
5-year average P/E
10-year average P/E
15-year average P/E
Utilities
82%
86%
95%
14.99
18.30
17.40
15.82
Real Estate
76%
80%
81%
15.19
19.86
18.89
18.72
Consumer Staples
93%
96%
105%
18.61
19.92
19.30
17.64
Healthcare
103%
104%
115%
16.99
16.46
16.34
14.72
Financials
88%
92%
97%
12.90
14.65
14.08
13.26
Materials
100%
103%
111%
16.91
16.98
16.42
15.27
Industrials
88%
96%
105%
17.38
19.84
18.16
16.56
Energy
106%
63%
73%
11.78
11.17
18.80
16.23
Consumer Discretionary
79%
95%
109%
24.09
30.41
25.39
22.10
Information Technology
109%
130%
146%
24.20
22.17
18.55
16.54
Communication Services
86%
86%
94%
16.41
19.09
19.00
17.43
S&P 500
94%
101%
112%
17.94
19.01
17.76
16.04
DJ Industrial Average
93%
98%
107%
16.25
17.49
16.54
15.17
Nasdaq Composite Index
92%
102%
102%
24.62
26.71
24.18
24.18
Nasdaq-100 Index
97%
110%
126%
24.40
25.23
22.14
19.43
There is a limit to how many columns we can show in the table. The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is now 17.94, compared with 16.79 at the end of 2022 and 21.53 at the end of 2021. The benchmark index’s P/E is above its 10- and 15-year average levels but below the five-year average.
If we compare the current sector P/E numbers to 5-, 10- and 15-year averages, we can see that the current levels are below all three averages for four sectors: utilities, real estate, financials and communications services. The first three face obvious difficulties as they adjust to the rising-rate environment, while the real-estate sector reels from continuing low usage rates for office buildings, from the change in behavior brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Your own opinions, along with the pricing for some sectors, might drive some investment choices.
A broader screen of the S&P 500 might point to companies for you to research further.
We narrowed the S&P 500 as follows:
Current forward P/E below 5-, 10- and 15-year average valuations. For stocks with negative earnings-per-share estimates for the next 12 months, there is no forward P/E ratio so they were excluded. For stocks listed for less than 15 years, we required at least a 5-year average P/E for comparison. This brought the list down to 138 companies.
“Buy” or equivalent ratings from at least two-thirds of analysts: 41 companies.
Here are the 20 companies that passed the screen, for which analysts’ price targets imply the highest upside potential over the next 12 months.
There is too much data for one table, so first we will show the P/E information:
Much of the northern half of the U.S. could see a milder winter in coming months thanks to a combination of the latest El Niño and ongoing patterns of above-average heat owed to human-made climate change.
That’s especially true of forecasts for Maine and parts of Washington and Oregon.
The recurring weather phenomenon known as El Niño could mean greater rain amounts in Florida’s typical wet season, and still doesn’t preclude a freeze that could put citrus crops at risk. The western Carolinas, too, could see greater-than-usual snow.
The latest predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration could mean short-term relief for Americans who struggled through summer’s heat extremes, but also pose a downside for retailers banking on a flurry of winter-clothing and supplies purchases. The added precipitation, however, points to plenty of snowpack for skiing and snowboarding at popular sites.
According to NOAA’s models, there is a 95% chance El Niño continues through the winter. Generally, whenever there is an El Niño pattern in place, the Northern U.S. has warmer winters, NOAA said.
NOAA
Meanwhile, across the South and for much of the Atlantic coast into southern New England, the forecast calls for greater chances of a wetter-than-normal winter, said NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Parts of the Northwest, Mountain West and Great Lakes could see greater chances of below-normal precipitation and while a less-snowy winter can mean safer travel, it can hurt the precipitation build relied upon for a healthy crop-growing season later in 2024.
What’s an El Niño and what does it mean for climate change?
Because an El Niño, packing the opposite effect of a cooling La Niña, happens every few years, people often wonder what the relationship is between these weather events and long-running atmospheric warming known as climate change.
“Climate change will likely strengthen any ‘normal’ El Niño effects,” Dr. Stefan Schnitzer, professor of biological sciences Marquette University, told MarketWatch. “The increased global temperatures will add to the El Niño event, especially where rainfall increases.”
Human-made climate change — caused by the greenhouse gas emissions put off by burning coal, oil CL00, -0.02%
and gas and blamed for accelerating historical climates shifts — has been warming the Earth’s temperature.
An El Niño is the somewhat regular pattern in the tropical Pacific that brings warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures and influences weather. It emerged earlier-than-expected in 2023.
NOAA in earlier reporting said that the continental U.S. had its ninth-warmest August on record. It also was the 15th-warmest summer on record for the continental U.S. alone. Globally, August 2023 was the hottest on record. Through August, 2023 has been the second-warmest year on record across the world, NOAA said.
“Not only was last month the warmest August on record by quite a lot, it was also the globe’s 45th-consecutive August and the 534th-consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average,” said Dr. Sarah Kapnick, NOAA’s chief scientist.
“Global marine heat waves and a growing El Niño are driving additional warming this year, but as long as emissions continue driving a steady march of background warming, we expect further records to be broken in the years to come,” she said.
What about El Niño and winter weather in the U.S. South and Midwest?
El Niño tends to bring wetter conditions to the Southeast. Florida, in particular, experiences higher-than-average rainfall during El Niño winters. This can lead to localized flooding, especially in low-lying areas and regions prone to heavy downpours.
According to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, Central Florida averages between 8 to 10 inches of rainfall during a typical winter. But during El Niño winters, that rainfall total rises to between 10 and 13 inches.
As for other parts of the South, El Niño typically means more precipitation, which in mountain areas, can mean snow.
Because the jet stream is displaced farther south, El Niño brings frequent storms across these areas, leading to above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures. This combination typically means more snow in Western North Carolina. In fact, some of the biggest seasonal snow totals have come during El Niño winters. Most notably, in the winter of 1968-69, more than 48 inches of snow fell in Asheville, N.C. And more recently, the winter of 2009-10 was unusually snowy with a whopping 39 inches accumulating.
In the Midwest, El Niño normally results in warmer and drier winters, meaning less snow.
“During an El Niño winter, the polar jet stream shifts northward, reducing the extremely low temperatures that normally swing down into the Midwest, including Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, and so on,” said Marquette’s Schnitzer.
Schnitzer reminds that weather variability is always unpredictable. Forecasts use models and historical patterns to try to offer an educated guess about the coming months.
“Occasionally we can get very cold temperatures and snow during an El Niño. It depends on what other weather systems blow through the area,” he said.
NOAA
What is El Niño’s impact on skiing and snowboarding?
Of course the amount of precipitation can impact how much snowfall is expected at higher elevations and what kind of season major skiing and snowboarding destinations can expect.
During the early parts of the winter season, through the rest of 2023, data suggests a normal- to drier-than-normal period for most of the western U.S. As for the eastern U.S., predictions look wetter than normal, says meteorologist Chris Tomer, in an outlook for the On the Snow website, with a prediction closely aligning with other experts looking at NOAA’s data.
Chris Tomer/On the Snow
By January, says Tomer, the bulk of the El Niño-driven snowfall typically occurs across parts of the West with a strong subtropical jet.
“The pattern suggests a higher likelihood of atmospheric river (AR) events. In the Northeast, normal- to above-normal snowfall appears possible. Be warned, though. “The pattern suggests that NorEaster storm systems are more likely,” Tomer said.
To him, that means New England ski areas could see a particularly advantageous snowy winter, which would be a welcome snapback from last season’s winter on the East Coast.
Many Colorado ski areas, including Summit County resorts, Loveland, Telluride and Arapahoe Basin, also stand to be among the biggest snow “winners,” says Tomer. He’s also upbeat for accumulation for New Mexico ski areas and California ski areas in the Sierras.
“El Niño historically doesn’t favor any particular outcome for Wasatch, Aspen Snowmass and Vail [in Colorado],” he added. “However, if the Modoki contribution [when the warming is generated in a different part of the Pacific Ocean] to this El Niño increases, then all of these resorts could tilt a little higher to 105% to 110% of normal winter snowfall.”
Inflation remains a top concern among Americans, so what do the Republicans seeking President Joe Biden’s job say they’ll do about it?
MarketWatch asked the 2024 GOP White House hopefuls to give at least three ways that they would address the elevated prices that have blown up many household budgets.
Most campaigns provided responses, while some didn’t but have offered proposals in other venues. See what they’re all planning below.
The economy is the No. 1 issue for Republican voters, according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll, which found 36% citing the economy generally and an additional 10% citing inflation.
MarketWatch contacted the eight contenders who took part in their primary’s first debate, along with former President Donald Trump, who skipped the debate, and two relatively well-known contenders who failed to qualify for the first debate, Larry Elder and former Congressman Will Hurd. They are listed below in order of their ranking in the latest polls, based on a RealClearPolitics moving average.
Inflation was low when Trump became president, with prices rising less than 2% a year. That was even considered a problem before the COVID-19 pandemic, with inflation often characterized as stubbornly or persistently low. Inflation began to spike in 2021, shortly after Biden took office, due to a global shortage of goods and a huge rebound in consumer demand following the pandemic’s early stages. Economists say massive stimulus by both the Trump and Biden administrations as well as low interest rates fostered by the Federal Reserve helped to push inflation to a 40-year high.
“I would get inflation down,” Trump said in a recent interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press,” while saying that “we did a great job with inflation.” His campaign pointed MarketWatch to a number of policy proposals in which Trump himself is quoted.
Former President Donald Trump walks over to speak with reporters before departing from Atlanta’s airport last month.
AP
The former president says he’ll rein in what he calls Biden’s “wasteful spending,” which Trump says is key to stopping inflation. Trump is proposing to use what’s known as impoundment authority to reduce federal spending. That term refers to the ability of a president to withhold congressionally appropriated funds from their intended use, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Trump also calls for boosting energy output. “When I’m back in the White House, I will immediately unleash energy production, slash regulations, like I did just three years ago, and repeal Biden’s tax hikes to get inflation down as fast as possible, and it will go quickly, so that interest rates can get back under control,” Trump says on his campaign website. “I would get inflation down, because drill we must,” he told “Meet the Press.”
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, says a spokesman, “will reduce inflation by, among other measures, tackling government spending, unleashing domestic energy and removing burdensome Biden administration regulations.”
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks in July during a press conference in West Columbia, S.C.
AP Photo/Sean Rayford
In his economic plan, DeSantis leans heavily into energy policy for addressing inflation. “DeSantis will unleash our domestic energy sector, modernize and protect our grid and advance American energy independence. This will not only increase our economic and national security while reducing inflation, [but] it will also help fuel a manufacturing renaissance that will create jobs, revitalize our communities and improve our standard of living,” says his plan.
He told “CBS Evening News with Norah O’Donnell” that, as president, he would “stop spending so much money. We need a president that’s going to be a force for spending restraint, because that’s one of the root causes, with Congress spending so much.” He criticized both Democrats and Republicans for government spending.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy speaks in April at an event in Iowa.
AP
“This isn’t complicated,” entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy said in a recent post on X. “Fight inflation, unleash growth by taking the handcuffs [off] the U.S. energy sector & dismantling the regulatory state.” His campaign didn’t respond to MarketWatch’s request for comment, but his campaign website offers the following proposals:
Ramaswamy is also calling for dramatically changing the Federal Reserve, by ending the central bank’s dual mandate of keeping inflation low and maintaining full employment. “Limit the U.S. Fed’s scope: stabilize the dollar DXY
& nothing more,” his campaign site says.
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley is a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina governor.
Getty Images
“We want to eliminate the federal gas tax completely,” Haley told Fox Business. “We have to get more money in our taxpayers’ pockets.” That tax helps pay for highways, but she said the system isn’t working, echoing a point that some policy analysts have previously made. Biden pushed for temporarily suspending the federal gas tax in 2022, but Congress didn’t provide sufficient support for his proposal. In her economic speech, Haley also promised to cut income taxes for working families and make permanent the tax cuts that small businesses scored in 2017’s GOP tax overhaul.
The former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said members of Congress are “spending like drunken sailors,” as she promised to reduce the federal government’s outlays. “I will veto any spending bill that doesn’t take us back to pre-COVID levels,” she told Fox Business, referring to budgets that date to before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020.
Haley in her speech Friday pledged to support the U.S. energy industry, as she suggested that Washington has been “stifling it.” She said: “We’ll drill so much oil and gas, families will save big on their utility bills.”
Mike Pence
A spokesman for Pence’s campaign pointed to the former vice president’s plan for “ending inflation,” which calls for actions such as reducing the federal government’s spending and changing the Federal Reserve’s job description.
Former Vice President Mike Pence served as governor of Indiana and as a congressman before becoming Donald Trump’s running mate in 2016.
AP
A Pence administration would “end runaway deficits by freezing non-defense spending, eliminating unnecessary government programs, repealing over $3 trillion in new spending under Biden, and reforming mandatory programs that drive our debt,” the plan says. Earlier this year, he urged “commonsense and compassionate” reforms for programs such as Social Security and Medicaid.
Pence wants to end the Fed’s dual mandate, which calls for the U.S. central bank to focus on full employment and stable prices. “Trying to serve two, often contradictory goals has led to wild fluctuation in rates,” his plan says, adding that it’s better to “leave employment policy to the president and Congress.”
The former vice president’s plan said he aims to bring supply chains and production “back home,” and that would happen by “removing regulatory burdens, enacting pro-growth tax policies, and ensuring access to abundant American energy.” In other words: “We will fight inflation by making America the best place to do business again.”
Similar to his 2024 GOP rivals, Pence blasts Biden’s energy policies, though some of the Democratic incumbent’s stances, such as his approval of the Willow drilling project in Alaska, have also been criticized by environmental groups. Pence’s plan says: “It is time to reverse Biden’s attack on American energy by restarting oil and gas leasing on federal lands, opening the Arctic and offshore regions for exploration XOP,
approving safe transportation of oil and gas, mining rare earth minerals, and rejecting climate change hysteria that is causing U.S. energy XLE
production to fall.”
Chris Christie
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie addresses a New Hampshire audience in April.
AP Photo/Charles Krupa
Chris Christie’s White House campaign didn’t respond to MarketWatch’s requests for comment, but the former New Jersey governor has emphasized that reducing government spending will help tame inflation.
“The out-of-control government spending has created this inflation,” Christie said in June during a CNN town hall. “I mean, even Larry Summers, who I don’t agree with much on, former Democratic Treasury secretary, warned Joe Biden, ‘Don’t do this spending. It’s going to cause the inflation.’ So, first, we need to bring spending down, and we’ve talked about that before.”
U.S. Sen. Tim Scott pointed to reducing the federal government’s spending and repealing one of Biden’s signature legislative packages, when asked about how he would address inflation.
Tim Scott, a U.S. senator from South Carolina, speaks last month during the presidential debate in Milwaukee.
Getty Images
Scott, from South Carolina, said in a statement that he would aim to “snap non-defense discretionary spending back to the pre-COVID 2019 baseline.” He described that as stopping Democrats from “turning the temporary pandemic into permanent socialism.”
Scott said he would rescind the Inflation Reduction Act, which is Democrats’ big economic package aimed at addressing climate change, capping drug costs and raising hundreds of billions of dollars through taxes on corporations. “The Inflation Reduction Act actually increased inflation and the only thing it reduced was money in our pockets,” he said in his statement. “Cutting that off and restoring tax cuts and eliminating the tax increases would go a long way to having the kind of stimulative impact in our economy and controlling spending.”
Scott called for stronger economic growth. “We have to also grow our economy somewhere near 5% consistently,” he said, adding that could create 10 million jobs. The U.S. economy grew by nearly 6% in 2021 after contracting in 2020 as COVID hit, then it expanded by about 2% in 2022.
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson blames “excessive federal spending” for leading to inflation when giving speeches, and outlines a plan for “fiscal responsibility” on his campaign site.
Asa Hutchinson, governor of Arkansas from 2015 until this year, speaks at an Iowa event in April.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
“Restore discipline by reducing federal government size, cutting spending, balancing the budget, and lowering the deficit to tame inflation,” it states.
When Hutchinson was governor, he signed a $500 million tax-cut package, saying “it could not come at a better time with the continued challenge of high food and gas prices.” That was in August 2022. On his campaign website, he repeats a call to cut taxes and “reduce regulations to boost the private sector and enhance wages for American workers.”
Hutchinson’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment from MarketWatch.
Doug Burgum
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, a GOP presidential hopeful, speaks at the Iowa State Fair in August.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum’s website says that as president he would “get inflation under control, cut taxes, lower gas prices RB00, +0.31%,
reduce the cost of living and help people realize their fullest potential.” It doesn’t provide specifics.
A spokesman for Burgum’s White House campaign didn’t respond to MarketWatch’s requests for comment. A spokesman reportedly told the New York Times that the campaign will roll out its vision and plans on its own timeline.
Larry Elder
Larry Elder, a conservative radio host and a gubernatorial candidate in California in the failed 2021 recall of Democratic incumbent Gavin Newsom, said he views energy and tax policy and a constitutional amendment as ways to whip inflation.
Larry Elder is a conservative radio host and former gubernatorial candidate in California.
AP
“Reverse the war on oil CL00, +0.93%
and gas NG00, -2.65%
; permit drilling in Anwar [Arctic National Wildlife Refuge]; authorize the Keystone Pipeline; reverse the Biden restrictions on drilling on federal lands; and encourage nuclear energy NLR,
” Elder said in a statement.
“Encourage an amendment to the Constitution to set spending to a fixed percent of the GDP,” he also said.
Elder said the reduction in spending forced by that constitutional amendment would “coincide with a steep reduction in personal and corporate income taxes,” offering further help to Americans with stretched budgets.
Will Hurd
2024 Republican presidential hopeful Will Hurd, a former Texas congressman, speaks in Iowa in July.
AFP via Getty Images
Former U.S. Rep. Will Hurd of Texas announced his candidacy in June but so far hasn’t made it to the debate stage. In his campaign-launch video, he labeled inflation “still out of control.”
In a post on X in June, Hurd called for reining in spending. “You cannot be putting government funds into, at a time where you’re seeing the rising inflation,” he said.
And he said tax hikes are a nonstarter when inflation is high. “The worst time to talk about increasing taxes is when everybody’s hurting from inflation.”
Hurd also said the deficit should be addressed, to “start bending the curve back on the debt.”
Hurd’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment from MarketWatch.
August was a hot month and it wasn’t just about the weather. Financial markets are now bracing for what’s likely to be a rebound in headline U.S. inflation next week, fueled by higher energy prices.
Barclays BARC, +0.18%,
BofA Securities BAC, +0.62%,
and TD Securities expect August’s consumer price index to reflect a 0.6% monthly rise, up from the 0.2% monthly readings seen in July and in June. In addition, they put the annual CPI inflation rate at 3.6% or 3.7% for last month, which compares with the 3.2% and 3% figures reported respectively for the prior two months.
While Federal Reserve policy makers and analysts are loath to read too much into one report, August’s CPI has the potential to disrupt expectations that getting back to the central bank’s 2% target will be easy. Inflation has instead been nudging back up since June, with the likely rebound in August being regarded as primarily driven by the energy sector. What now remains to be seen is how much longer energy prices will remain elevated and whether they’ll begin to feed into narrower measures of inflation that matter most to the Fed.
“We’re going to see a spike in gas prices and other commodity prices driven by supply cuts, which means headline CPI goes back up,” said Alex Pelle, a U.S. economist for Mizuho Securities in New York. Via phone on Friday, Pelle said that prospects for a hotter August CPI report have already been factored in by financial markets, with all three major U.S. stock indexes heading for weekly losses.
How investors react to next Wednesday’s data will likely come down to whether the rebound in headline figures is seen as “a one-off” or something that gets repeated, and “what that means for the bottoming off of inflation,” Pelle said. “The equity market is going to have some trouble in the fourth quarter after a pretty impressive first half. Earnings expectations are still pretty high, but the macro-driven backdrop is challenging.”
Rising energy prices in August have already spilled into the month of September, with gasoline reaching the highest seasonal level in more than a decade this week. Voluntary production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia are a major contributing factor curtailing the supply of crude oil into year-end, and Goldman Sachs has warned that oil could climb above $100 a barrel.
In financial markets, there’s one group of traders which is telegraphing that the final mile of the road toward 2% inflation won’t be smooth.
Traders of derivatives-like instruments known as fixings anticipate that the next five CPI reports, including August’s, will produce annual headline inflation rates above 3%. Though policy makers care more about core readings that strip out volatile food and energy prices, they’re aware of how much headline figures can impact the public’s expectations.
Source: Bloomberg. The maturity column reflects the month and year of upcoming CPI reports. The forwards column reflects the year-ago period from which the year-over-year rate is based.
At BofA Securities, U.S. economist Stephen Juneau said August’s CPI won’t necessarily change his firm’s view that inflation is likely to move lower next year and fall back to the Fed’s target without the need for a recession. BofA Securities expects just one more Fed rate hike in November and will maintain that view if August’s CPI report comes in as he expects, Juneau said via phone.
After stripping out volatile food and energy items, BofA Securities, along with Barclays and TD Securities, expects August’s core CPI readings to come in at 0.2% month-over-month — matching June and July’s levels — and to fall to 4.3% on an annual basis.
Based on core measures, August’s report wouldn’t “change the narrative all that much: Everything points to a moderation in price growth,” Pelle said. “There’s a reason why food and energy are typically excluded,” and “we don’t want to put too much stock into one month.”
As of Friday afternoon, all three major U.S. stock indexes were headed higher, with the S&P 500 attempting to snap a three-day losing streak. Dow industrials DJIA,
the S&P 500 SPX
and Nasdaq Composite COMP
were respectively on track for weekly losses of 0.7%, 1.2%, and 1.7%. They’re still up for the year by more than 4%, 16% and 31%.
Meanwhile, Treasury yields turned were little changed on Friday as fed funds futures traders priced in a 93% chance of no action by the Fed at its next policy meeting in less than two weeks, and a more-than-50% likelihood of the same for November and December — which would leave the Fed’s main policy rate target between 5.25%-5.5%.
“There is a risk that investors are too complacent about the inflation report,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Elm Grove, Wis. “We might not get to 2% inflation as quickly as many hope.”
Central bankers like to focus on core inflation readings, which strip out food and energy prices, but that doesn’t mean that they, or investors, will be able to ignore a renewed surge in crude-oil prices.
In a Thursday note, DataTrek Research observed that the correlation between energy prices and the core reading of the consumer-price index has returned to levels seen in the 1970s and 1980s. It stands at 0.62 since 2020, compared with an average of 0.68 in those prior decades, and well above its long-run average of 0.31. A reading of 1.0 would mean the measures were moving in perfect lockstep. (See table below.)
DataTrek Research
Core measures of inflation typically strip out volatile items like food and energy. While that often leads to eye-rolling by commentators who note that food and energy make up a big chunk of what consumers spend money on, the logic behind the move holds that such items are less responsive to monetary policy.
Policy makers put more emphasis on the core reading for a better read on what they can influence. The core personal-consumption expenditures, or PCE, index, for example, is often described as the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation indicator.
But that doesn’t mean rising energy or food prices can be ignored. Energy, after all, is an input, and can have an influence on overall prices.
“Recent data says energy prices hold more sway on core inflation than any time since the 1970s/1980s, so rising oil prices are a legitimate concern for both the Fed and capital markets. Food inflation fits the same bill,” said DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas in the note.
Oil prices have been on a tear this summer, with the rally accelerating after Saudi Arabia announced earlier this week it would extend a production cut of 1 million barrels a day through the end of the year, with Russia also pledging to extend a supply cut.
West Texas Intermediate crude CL00, +0.48%,
the U.S. benchmark, extended a winning streak to nine days on Wednesday, while Brent crude BRN00, +0.60%,
the global benchmark, rose for a seventh straight day. Both grades ended at 2023 highs Wednesday before pulling back modestly in the Thursday session.
The surge in crude threatens to further drive up fuel prices, including gasoline and diesel.
And rising oil prices this week got a chunk of the blame from investors and analysts for a pickup in Treasury yields as market participants began to pencil in a longer stretch of higher interest rates — or weighed the possibility the Fed may need to deliver more monetary tightening. That’s also contributed to a rise in the U.S. dollar, with the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY,
a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, hitting a six-month high.
U.S. stocks have weakened in the face of rising yields, with technology and growth shares, which are particularly rate-sensitive, leading the way lower. The Nasdaq Composite COMP
was on track for a 2% decline so far this holiday-shortened week, while the S&P 500 SPX
has pulled back 1.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA
has lost 1%.
“With oil prices rising again, we got to wondering about the spillover effects of this move on inflation. Will pricier crude derail recent disinflationary trends?” Colas wrote.
Oil futures settled higher on Wednesday, with U.S. prices posting a ninth consecutive climb — the longest streak of daily gains since early 2019.
Prices for U.S. and global benchmark crude futures marked fresh settlement highs for the year so far, following the recent extension of supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
