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Tag: FRX

  • Exclusive: India’s Bank of Baroda stops clearing payment for above-cap Russian oil – sources

    Exclusive: India’s Bank of Baroda stops clearing payment for above-cap Russian oil – sources

    NEW DELHI, April 4 (Reuters) – India’s Bank of Baroda (BOB.NS) has stopped clearing payments for Russian oil sold above the price cap set by the West from this month, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, a move that could expedite transition to a rupee trade mechanism.

    Some Indian refiners were paying in the United Arab Emirates dirham currency for Russian low-sulphur crude priced above the $60 a barrel cap using Bank of Baroda, mainly to Dubai-based traders, sources said.

    The Group of Seven economies, the European Union and Australia, set the price cap late last year to bar Western services and shipping from trading Russian oil unless sold at an enforced low price to deprive Moscow of funds for its Ukraine war.

    “Bank of Baroda is extremely cautious in settling payments for Russian oil bought (at levels) above the price cap,” one of the sources said.

    “They have told us no for settling payments for above-cap barrels,” the person said.

    The state-run lender told refiners last month that it would not settle payment from Russian barrels bought above the price cap, the three sources said.

    Bank of Baroda did not respond to requests for comment from Reuters.

    Before the Ukraine war, Indian refiners rarely bought oil from Russia due to higher freight costs. After Western sanctions on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, Indian refiners have been gorging on discounted Russian oil.

    Russia has replaced Iraq as the top oil supplier to India in the last few months, data from trade sources showed.

    Sources anticipate that prices of Russian sweet crude such as Sokol and ESPO Blend, which was sold near $60 a barrel in recent weeks, could breach the price cap due to a sharp spike in global oil prices triggered by Sunday’s OPEC+ decision to cut output.

    Some refiners, mainly private operators, have been clearing payments in dirhams for Russian crude through private lender Axis Bank (AXBK.NS), sources told Reuters last month. It was not clear if Axis Bank had also stopped settling trades for Russian oil sold above the price cap.

    Axis Bank did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

    Although Indian refiners buy Russian oil on a delivered basis, copies of invoices reviewed by Reuters also show shipping charges, which helps in calculating the price of crude at Russian ports.

    Sources said that problems in settling trade for Russian oil could push sellers to accept rupee payments, at least for barrels that exceed the price cap.

    “We have neither stopped nor reduced purchases of Russian oil after Bank of Baroda’s decision … we will consider using rupees to pay for oil purchased above the price cap,” another source said.

    India does not recognise the Western price cap on Russian oil, a senior oil ministry source said last month.

    SETTLEMENT MECHANISM

    India set up a mechanism to settle its international trade in rupees last year. Some Russian banks later opened vostro accounts with banks in India to facilitate rupee trade.

    The mechanism has not yet started given the lack of Russian appetite for rupees and India’s trade deficit with Moscow.

    However, during a visit last week to India, Igor Sechin, chief executive of Russian oil major Rosneft, discussed ways to expand cooperation with India across the hydrocarbons value chain, including the possibility of making payments in national currencies.

    A switch to rupee payments would help wean Russia from dollars and would save foreign exchange for India.

    Reporting by Nidhi Verma; Additional reporting by Siddhi Nayak in Mumbai; Editing by Tony Munroe and Jacqueline Wong

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Canada’s deep yield curve inversion adds to BoC rate hike dilemma

    Canada’s deep yield curve inversion adds to BoC rate hike dilemma

    TORONTO, Dec 4 (Reuters) – As the Bank of Canada considers ditching oversized interest rate hikes, it is dealing with an economy likely more overheated than previously thought but also the bond market’s clearest signal yet that recession and lower inflation lie ahead.

    Canada’s central bank says that the economy needs to slow from overheated levels in order to ease inflation. If its tightening campaign overshoots to achieve that objective it could trigger a deeper downturn than expected.

    The bond market could be flagging that risk. The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond has fallen nearly 100 basis points below the 2-year yield, marking the biggest inversion of Canada’s yield curve in Refinitiv data going back to 1994 and deeper than the U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion.

    Some analysts see curve inversions as predictors of recessions. Canada’s economy is likely to be particularly sensitive to higher rates after Canadians borrowed heavily during the COVID-19 pandemic to participate in a red-hot housing market.

    “Markets think the Canadian economy is about to suffer a triple blow as domestic consumption collapses, U.S. demand weakens and global commodity prices drop,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay.

    The BoC has opened the door to slowing the pace of rate increases to a quarter of a percentage point following multiple oversized hikes in recent months that lifted the benchmark rate to 3.75%, its highest since 2008.

    Money markets are betting on a 25-basis-point increase when the bank meets to set policy on Wednesday, but a slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll expect a larger move.

    RESILIENT ECONOMY

    Canada’s employment report for November showed that the labour market remains tight, while gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the third quarter.

    That’s much stronger than the 1.5% pace forecast by the BoC and together with upward revisions to historical growth could indicate that demand has moved further ahead of supply, economists say.

    But they also say that the details of the third-quarter GDP data, including a contraction in domestic demand, and a preliminary report showing no growth in October are signs that higher borrowing costs have begun to impact activity.

    The BoC has forecast that growth would stall from the fourth quarter of this year through the middle of 2023.

    The depth of Canada’s curve inversion is signaling a “bad recession” not a mild one, said David Rosenberg, chief economist & strategist at Rosenberg Research.

    It reflects greater risk to the outlook in Canada than the United States due to “a more inflated residential real estate market and consumer debt bubble,” Rosenberg said.

    Inflation is likely to be more persistent after it spread from goods prices to services and wages, where higher costs can become more entrenched. Still, 3-month measures of underlying inflation that are closely watched by the BoC – CPI-median and CPI-trim – show price pressures easing.

    They fell to an average of 2.75% in October, according to estimates by Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics. That’s well below more commonly used 12-month rates.

    “The yield curve would not invert to this extent unless investors also believed that inflation will drop back down toward the Bank’s target,” said Brown.

    Like the Federal Reserve, the BoC has a 2% target for inflation.

    “The curve is telling us the Bank of Canada will be forced into a reversal by late 2023, with rates remaining depressed for years to come,” Corpay’s Schamotta said.

    Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Andrea Ricci

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of U.S. dollars

    Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of U.S. dollars

    ACCRA, Nov 24 (Reuters) – Ghana’s government is working on a new policy to buy oil products with gold rather than U.S. dollar reserves, Vice-President Mahamudu Bawumia said on Facebook on Thursday.

    The move is meant to tackle dwindling foreign currency reserves coupled with demand for dollars by oil importers, which is weakening the local cedi and increasing living costs.

    Ghana’s Gross International Reserves stood at around $6.6 billion at the end of September 2022, equating to less than three months of imports cover. That is down from around $9.7 billion at the end of last year, according to the government.

    If implemented as planned for the first quarter of 2023, the new policy “will fundamentally change our balance of payments and significantly reduce the persistent depreciation of our currency,” Bawumia said.

    Using gold would prevent the exchange rate from directly impacting fuel or utility prices as domestic sellers would no longer need foreign exchange to import oil products, he explained.

    “The barter of gold for oil represents a major structural change,” he added.

    The proposed policy is uncommon. While countries sometimes trade oil for other goods or commodities, such deals typically involve an oil-producing nation receiving non-oil goods rather than the opposite.

    Ghana produces crude oil but it has relied on imports for refined oil products since its only refinery shut down after an explosion in 2017.

    Bawumia’s announcement was posted as Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta announced measures to cut spending and boost revenues in a bid to tackle a spiraling debt crisis.

    In a 2023 budget presentation to parliament on Thursday, Ofori-Atta warned the West African nation was at high risk of debt distress and that the cedi’s depreciation was seriously affecting Ghana’s ability to manage its public debt.

    The government is negotiating a relief package with the International Monetary Fund as the cocoa, gold and oil-producing nation faces its worst economic crisis in a generation.

    Reporting by Cooper Inveen and Christian Akorlie
    Writing by Sofia Christensen
    Editing by Estelle Shirbon and Elaine Hardcastle

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • As UK’s Truss fights for job, new finance minister says she made mistakes

    As UK’s Truss fights for job, new finance minister says she made mistakes

    • Truss sacked finance minister on Friday
    • New chancellor Hunt warns of tough decisions
    • ‘I’ve listened, I get it’, Truss says
    • BoE’s Bailey says agrees with Hunt on need to fix finances
    • Some Conservative lawmakers say Truss will be ousted

    LONDON, Oct 15 (Reuters) – Britain’s new finance minister Jeremy Hunt said on Saturday some taxes would go up and tough spending decisions were needed, saying Prime Minister Liz Truss had made mistakes as she battles to keep her job just over a month into her term.

    In an attempt to appease financial markets that have been in turmoil for three weeks, Truss fired Kwasi Kwarteng as her chancellor of the exchequer on Friday and scrapped parts of their controversial economic package.

    With opinion poll ratings dire for both the ruling Conservative Party and the prime minister personally, and many of her own lawmakers asking, not if, but how Truss should be removed, Truss is relying on Hunt to help salvage her premiership less than 40 days after taking office.

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    In an article for the Sun newspaper published late on Saturday, Truss admitted the plans had gone “further and faster than the markets were expecting”.

    “I’ve listened, I get it,” she wrote. “We cannot pave the way to a low-tax, high-growth economy without maintaining the confidence of the markets in our commitment to sound money.”

    She said Hunt would lay out at the end of the month the plan to get national debt down “over the medium term”.

    But, the speculation about her future shows no sign of diminishing, with Sunday’s newspapers rife with stories that allies of Rishi Sunak, another former finance minister who she beat to become leader last month, were plotting to force her out within weeks.

    On a tour of TV and radio studios, Hunt gave a blunt assessment of the situation the country faced, saying Truss and Kwarteng had made mistakes and further changes to her plans were possible.

    “We will have some very difficult decisions ahead,” he said.”The thing that people want, the markets want, the country needs now, is stability.”

    The Sunday Times said Hunt would rip up more of Truss’s original package by delaying a planned cut to the basic rate of income tax as part of a desperate bid to balance the books.

    According to the newspaper, Britain’s independent fiscal watchdog had said in a draft forecast there could be a 72 billion pound ($80 billion) black hole in public finances by 2027/28, worse than economists had forecast.

    Truss had won the leadership contest to replace Boris Johnson on a platform of big tax cuts to stimulate growth, which Kwarteng duly announced last month. But the absence of any details of how the cuts would be funded sent the markets into meltdown.

    She has already ditched plans to cut tax for high earners, and said a levy on business would increase, abandoning her proposal to keep it at current levels. But a slump in bond prices after her news conference on Friday still suggested she had not gone far enough.

    ‘MEETING OF MINDS’

    Kwarteng’s Sept. 23 fiscal statement prompted a backlash in financial markets that was so ferocious the Bank of England (BoE) had to intervene to prevent pension funds being caught up in the chaos as borrowing costs surged.

    BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said he had spoken to Hunt and they had agreed on the need to repair the public finances.

    “There was a very clear and immediate meeting of minds between us about the importance of fiscal sustainability and the importance of taking measures to do that,” Bailey said in Washington on Saturday. “Of course, there was an important measure taken yesterday.”

    He also warned that inflation pressures might require a bigger interest rate rise than previously thought due to the government’s huge energy subsidies for homes and businesses, and its tax cut plans.

    Hunt is due to announce the government’s medium-term budget plans on Oct. 31, in what will be a key test of its ability to show it can restore its economic policy credibility.

    He cautioned spending would not rise by as much as people would like and all government departments were going to have to find more efficiencies than they were planning.

    “Some taxes will not be cut as quickly as people want, and some taxes will go up. So it’s going to be difficult,” he said. He met Treasury officials on Saturday and will hold talks with Truss on Sunday to go through the plans.

    ‘MISTAKES MADE’

    Hunt, an experienced minister and viewed by many in his party as a safe pair of hands, said he agreed with Truss’s fundamental strategy of kickstarting economic growth, but he added that their approach had not worked.

    “There were some mistakes made in the last few weeks. That’s why I’m sitting here. It was a mistake to cut the top rate of tax at a period when we’re asking everyone to make sacrifices,” he said.

    It was also a mistake, Hunt said, to “fly blind” and produce the tax plans without allowing the independent fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, to check the figures.

    The fact that Hunt is Britain’s fourth finance minister in four months is testament to a political crisis that has gripped Britain since Johnson was ousted following a series of scandals.

    Hunt said Truss should be judged at an election and on her performance over the next 18 months – not the last 18 days.

    However, she might not get that chance. During the leadership contest, Truss won support from less than a third of Conservative lawmakers and has appointed her backers since taking office – alienating those who supported her rivals.

    The appointment of Hunt, who ran to be leader himself and then backed Sunak, has been seen as a sign of her reaching out, but the move did little to placate some of her party critics.

    “It’s over for her,” one Conservative lawmaker told Reuters after Friday’s events.

    ($1 = 0.8953 pounds)

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    Reporting by Michael Holden, Alistair Smout and William Schomberg
    Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Helen Popper, Ros Russell and Diane Craft

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Dow posts record closing high, stocks gain for 3rd week; dollar dips

    Dow posts record closing high, stocks gain for 3rd week; dollar dips

    • S&P 500, Nasdaq end session lower
    • Evergrande averts default with surprise interest payment
    • U.S. 10-year yields lower

    NEW YORK, Oct 22 (Reuters) – The Dow Jones industrial average registered a record closing high on Friday and major equity indexes posted a third straight week of gains while the U.S. dollar slipped.

    On the day, MSCI’s broadest gauge of global shares (.MIWD00000PUS) was flat, and the S&P 500 (.SPX) and Nasdaq (.IXIC) ended lower.

    Stocks came under pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank was “on track” to begin reducing its purchases of assets. read more

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    Intel’s stock (INTC.O)fell 11.7% and was among the biggest drags on the S&P 500. Late Thursday, Intel reported sales that missed expectations and pointed to shortages of chips holding back sales of its flagship processors. read more

    American Express Co’s stock (AXP.N) gained, boosting the Dow after the company beat profit estimates for the fourth straight quarter.

    Next week brings reports from several key mega-cap names including Amazon (AMZN.O). read more

    The dollar pared losses after Powell’s comments, but the dollar index was last down 0.10% at 93.64, and is off from a one-year high of 94.56 last week. read more

    “There’s a bit of a positioning unwind taking place. We’ve obviously seen a firmer dollar since the September” Fed meeting, said Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in New York. “That also dovetails with the seasonal tendency for the dollar to soften into the end of the month.”

    Investors also digested news that China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) appeared to avert default with a source saying it made a last-minute bond coupon payment. read more

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 73.94 points, or 0.21%, to 35,677.02, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 4.88 points, or 0.11%, to 4,544.9 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 125.50 points, or 0.82%, to 15,090.20.

    The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.46% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe shed 0.03%.

    The MSCI index posted gains for a third straight week along with the three major U.S. stock indexes.

    In the U.S. bond market, yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasuries slid.

    The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 1.6 basis points to 1.659% after rising to a five-month high of 1.7064% late Thursday.

    Oil rose and ended up for the week, near multi-year highs. Brent crude futures rose 92 cents to settle at $85.53 a barrel, and registered its seventh weekly gain. U.S. crude futures gained $1.26, to settle at $83.76, and rose for a ninth straight week. read more

    Spot gold was up 0.6% at $1,793.82 per ounce.

    Among cryptocurrencies, bitcoin last fell 2.21% to $60,841.96.

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    Additional reporting by Simon Jessop in London, and Karen Brettell, Sinead Carew and Herbert Lash in New York and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo
    Editing by Hugh Lawson Mark Potter and David Gregorio

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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