The Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are demanding an explanation from Beijing after China’s top envoy to France questioned the independence of former Soviet countries like Ukraine.
Lu Shaye, China’s ambassador to France, said in an interview on Friday with French television network LCI that former Soviet countries have no “effective status” in international law.
Asked whether Crimea belongs to Ukraine, Lu said that “it depends how you perceive the problem,” arguing that it was historically part of Russia and offered to Ukraine by former Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.
“In international law, even these ex-Soviet Union countries do not have the status, the effective [status] in international law, because there is no international agreement to materialize their status as a sovereign country,” he said.
The comments sparked outrage among Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia — three former Soviet countries.
Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs said in a tweet that his ministry summoned “the authorized chargé d’affaires of the Chinese embassy in Riga on Monday to provide explanations. This step is coordinated with Lithuania and Estonia.”
He called the comments “completely unacceptable,” adding: “We expect explanation from the Chinese side and complete retraction of this statement.”
Margus Tsahkna, Estonia’s foreign minister, called the comments “false” and “a misinterpretation of history.”
Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s foreign minister, shared the interview on Twitter with the comment: “If anyone is still wondering why the Baltic States don’t trust China to “broker peace in Ukraine,” here’s a Chinese ambassador arguing that Crimea is Russian and our countries’ borders have no legal basis.”
Kyiv also pushed back strongly against the ambassador’s comments.
“It is strange to hear an absurd version of the ‘history of Crimea’ from a representative of a country that is scrupulous about its thousand-year history,” Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, said in a tweet on Sunday. “If you want to be a major political player, do not parrot the propaganda of Russian outsiders.”
France in a statement on Sunday stated its “full solidarity” with all the allied countries affected, which it said had acquired their independence “after decades of oppression,” according to Reuters. “On Ukraine specifically, it was internationally recognized within borders including Crimea in 1991 by the entire international community, including China,” a foreign ministry spokesperson was quoted as saying.
The foreign ministry spokesperson also called on China to clarify whether the ambassador’s statement reflects its position or not.
The row comes ahead of a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg on Monday, where relations with China are on the agenda.
BRUSSELS — Just when you thought Europe’s China policy could not be more disunited, the two most powerful countries of the European Union are now also at odds over whether to revive a moribund investment agreement with the authoritarian superpower.
For France, resuscitating the so-called EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) is “less urgent” and “just not practicable,” according to French President Emmanuel Macron.
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in favor of “reactivating” the agreement, which stalled soon after it was announced in late 2020 after Beijing imposed sanctions on several members of the European Parliament for criticizing human rights violations.
Speaking to POLITICO aboard his presidential plane during a visit to China earlier this month, Macron said he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping discussed the CAI, “but just a little bit.”
“I was very blunt with President Xi, I was very honest, as far as this is a European process — all the institutions need to be involved, and there is no chance to see any progress on this agreement as long as we have members of the European Parliament sanctioned by China,” Macron told POLITICO in English.
Beijing has proved skilled at preventing the EU from developing a unified China policy, using threats ranging from potential bans on French and Spanish wine to warnings that China will buy American Boeing instead of French Airbus planes.
Disagreement over the CAI is only one further example of divergence over China policy in Europe, where Beijing has expertly courted various countries and played them against each other in games of divide-and-rule over the past decade.
Merkel sought to seal the deal and ingratiate herself with Beijing before Washington could apply pressure to block it, causing tension with the incoming administration of U.S. President Joe Biden.
Germany has long been the most vocal cheerleader for the CAI due to its scale of manufacturing investments in China, particularly in the car-making and chemicals sectors.
The CAI would have made it marginally easier for European companies to invest in China and protect their intellectual property there. But critics decried weak worker protections and questioned to what degree it could be enforced.
Xi Jinping during Macron’s visit to Beijing | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
Soon after the agreement was announced, Beijing imposed sanctions on several European parliamentarians in retaliation for their criticism of human rights abuses in the restive region of Xinjiang.
The deal, which requires ratification by the European parliament, went into political deep freeze.
Scholz, who at times seems to mimic the more popular Merkel, would like to take CAI “out of the freezer” — but has cautioned that “this must be done with care” to avoid political pitfalls, according to a person he briefed directly but who was not authorized to comment publicly.
“It is surprising Scholz still thinks this is a good idea, despite the vastly changed context from a couple of years ago,” said one senior EU official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to freely discuss sensitive diplomatic issues.
EU branches split
Not only are EU countries divided on how to approach CAI — there’s also a rift among institutions in Brussels.
With its members sanctioned, the European Parliament is certain to reject any fresh attempt to ratify the CAI.
But like Scholz, European Council President Charles Michel also hopes to resuscitate the deal. He has discussed this with Chinese communist leaders, including during his solo visit to Beijing late last year, according to a senior EU official familiar with the matter who was not authorized to speak publicly.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, however, has stymied Michel’s attempts to place the agreement back on the agenda in Brussels. Von der Leyen is far more skeptical of engaging with China, citing increasing aggression abroad and repression at home.
Von der Leyen accompanied Macron on part of his China trip earlier this month, but said of her brief meeting with Xi Jinping and other Chinese officials that the topic of CAI “did not come up.” She has publicly argued that the deal needs to be “reassessed” in light of deteriorating relations between Beijing and the West.
Meanwhile, Chinese officials have made overtures to Michel and other sympathetic European leaders, suggesting China could unilaterally lift its sanctions on members of the European Parliament — but only with a “guarantee” the CAI would eventually be ratified.
A spokesperson for Michel said an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers will discuss EU-China relations on May 12. “Following that discussion we will then assess when the topic of China is again put on the table of the European Council,” he said.
During the same interview with POLITICO, Macron caused consternation in Western capitals when he said Europe should not follow America, but instead avoid confronting China over its stated goal of seizing the democratic island of Taiwan by force.
Manfred Weber, head of the center-right European People’s Party, the largest party in the European Parliament, described the French president’s comments as “a disaster.”
In an an interview with Italian media, he said that the remarks had “weakened the EU” and “made clear the great rift within the European Union in defining a common strategic plan against Beijing.”
Just meters from a busy train station in the heart of Paris, scientists have uncovered 50 graves in an ancient necropolis which offer a rare glimpse of life in the modern-day French capital’s predecessor, Lutetia, nearly 2,000 years ago.
Somehow, the buried necropolis was never stumbled upon during multiple road works over the years, as well as the construction of the Port-Royal station on the historic Left Bank in the 1970s.
However, plans for a new exit for the train station prompted an archaeological excavation by France’s National Institute of Preventive Archaeological Research (INRAP), which covers about 200 square meters of land. The excavation revealed burials believed to be part of the Saint Jacques necropolis dating back to the 2nd century, the research institute said in a news release.
Camille Colonna, an anthropologist at INRAP, told a press conference that there were already “strong suspicions” the site was close to Lutetia’s southern necropolis.
The Saint Jacques necropolis, the largest burial site in the Gallo–Roman town of Lutetia, was previously partially excavated in the 1800s.
However, only objects considered precious were taken from the graves, with the many skeletons, burial offerings and other artifacts abandoned.
The necropolis was then covered over and again lost to time.
The INRAP team discovered one section that had never before been excavated.
“No one has seen it since antiquity,” said INRAP president Dominique Garcia.
Colonna said the team was also “very happy” to have found a skeleton with a coin in its mouth, allowing them to date the burial to the 2nd century A.D.
The excavation, which began in March, has uncovered 50 graves, all of which were used for burial — not cremation, which was also common at the time.
One of the skeletons unearthed in an ancient necropolis found meters from a busy Paris train station.
Thomas Samson/AFP/File
Ferryman of Hades
The remains of the men, women and children are believed to be Parisii, a Gallic people who lived in Lutetia, from when the town on the banks of the Seine river was under the control of the Roman Empire.
The skeletons were buried in wooden coffins, which are now only identifiable by their nails.
About half of the remains found during the recent excavation were buried alongside offerings, such as ceramic jugs goblets, dishes and glassware.
Sometimes a coin was placed in the coffin, or even in the mouth of the dead, a common burial practice at the time called “Charon’s obol.” In Greek mythology, Charon is the ferryman of Hades, and the coin was considered a bribe to carry the souls of the dead across the river Styx.
The archaeologists also found traces of shoes inside the graves. They identified them based on the remains of small nails that would have been used in the soles. Some of the dead appeared to have been buried with shoes on their feet, while others were seemingly buried with shoes placed on either side of the body inside the grave, according to INRAP.
Colonna said the shoes were placed “either at the feet of the dead or next to them, like an offering.”
Jewelry, hairpins and belts were also discovered with the graves, while the entire skeleton of a pig and another small animal was discovered in a pit where animals were thought to have been sacrificed to the gods.
Unlike the excavation in the 1800s, this time the team plans to remove everything from the necropolis for analysis.
“This will allow us to understand the life of the Parisii through their funeral rites, as well as their health by studying their DNA,” Colonna said.
Garcia said that the ancient history of Paris was “generally not well known,” adding that the unearthed graves open “a window into the world of Paris during antiquity.”
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba slammed the EU on Thursday for failing to “implement its own decision” to jointly purchase ammunition for Ukraine as the bloc’s members spar over how to enact the plans.
“The inability of the EU to implement its own decision on the joint procurement of ammunition for Ukraine is frustrating,” Kuleba said on Twitter, marking a considerable change in tone from Kyiv toward the club it hopes to join.
EU leaders agreed last month on the idea to band together and draw money from a communal pot to help deliver Kyiv up to 1 million shells in the next 12 months as Ukraine fights off Russia’s invasion. But negotiations have hit an impasse at the ambassador level over how to spend the €1 billion set aside for joint contracts.
Kuleba said this was a test of the EU’s ability to make crucial new security decisions and whether the bloc truly has “strategic autonomy” — echoing the favorite term used by French President Emmanuel Macron when he recently stirred up controversy by saying Europe must not become “America’s followers.”
The main point of contention in the ammunition purchase talks revolves around how much to restrict the money to EU manufacturers, and whether to include companies in places like the U.S. and U.K.
France has been leading the charge to keep the money within the bloc, while others, including Poland, fear that Europe’s defense industry may not be up to the task of delivering 1 million shells to Ukraine in the promised timeframe of 12 months.
Talks will likely continue next week, meaning EU foreign ministers won’t have a deal in hand when they meet on Monday in Luxembourg to discuss the war.
“For Ukraine, the cost of inaction is measured in human lives,” Kuleba said.
RAMSTEIN AIR BASE, Germany — American-made Abrams tanks that Ukrainians will use for training will arrive in Germany in the next few weeks, allowing soldiers to begin learning to use the much-anticipated armor, according to two U.S. Defense Department officials.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is expected to announce the move at a Friday press conference after the 11th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a gathering of more than 40 nations dedicated to supporting Kyiv against Russia’s all-out assault, said one of the DoD officials, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive operations.
The 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks — a Ukrainian battalion’s worth — will arrive at the Grafenwoehr Training Area in Germany by mid-to-late May, according to the officials. The training will begin a week or two later, after the tanks go through a maintenance period.
But the tanks the Ukrainian armed forces will train on in Germany are different from the ones that will eventually arrive in Ukraine for use on the battlefield, the first DoD official added, noting that those are still being refurbished.
The training on how to operate and maintain the Abrams is expected to take up to 10 weeks and may include instruction on how to maneuver in combat, the official said. Some 250 Ukrainians are expected to go through the training program, which is run by 7th Army Training Command.
The U.S. is accelerating the delivery of the Abrams by opting to send older M1A1 versions, rather than the newer M1A2 type originally planned to go to Ukraine. The Pentagon anticipates the tanks will arrive on the battlefield by the end of the year.
During his opening remarks ahead of the contact group meeting, Austin applauded his counterparts for their donations. He noted that Italy, France, Canada and Norway are also providing air defense systems, while Estonia has spent more than 1 percent of its GDP on Ukraine.
“Our common efforts have made a huge difference to Ukraine’s defenders on the battlefield. And they underscore just how badly the Kremlin miscalculated,” Austin said. “After more than a year of Russian aggression and deceit, this contact group is as united as ever and more global than ever.”
The group is also working to deliver defense systems to counter Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, Austin said. Two Patriot missile defense systems, including one from the U.S. and one made up of components from Germany and the Netherlands, arrived in Ukraine on Wednesday.
In total, the members of the contact group have provided more than $55 billion in security assistance for Ukraine since the group’s founding a year ago. The U.S. alone has provided $35 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began, including the most recent package of $325 million.
The United States is the only advanced economy that does not guarantee paid time off.
“You have entire cultures like France … where pretty much everybody takes August off, and it’s just part of the culture there,” said Shawn Fremstad, director of law and political economy at the Center for Economic and Policy Research. “You don’t really see that here in the United States.”
France provides a minimum of 30 paid vacation days per year. What’s more, many European countries have paid holidays as well, giving workers there even more paid days off.
“When I came to France, I noticed that vacation is a way of life,” said Fatima Cadet-Diaby, an American who has been living in Paris for nearly seven years. “People are constantly talking about their vacations.”
More vacation time could also equate to overall economic gains in the U.S.
Even though a majority of Americans do have some kind of paid time off, nearly half of workers report not using all of those days. About half worry they might fall behind on their work if they take time off, with close to 20% thinking it could hurt their career growth and 16% saying they fear losing their job, according to data from the Pew Research Center.
“There’s a certain fear we don’t have any legal protections and people have been fired for taking vacation time,” said John de Graaf, author of the book “Take Back Your Time.”
Watch the video above to learn more about why American’s aren’t going on vacation even though they have the days off and what we can learn from our counterparts in France.
France has been mired in turmoil for months, as president Emmanuel Macron’s push to raise the pension age led to widespread protests . But oddly, the French stock market has been climbing, thanks in part to high-end consumers in China and a seemingly insatiable demand for all things Cartier, Dior and Chanel. The iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ) is nearing an all-time high, and Strategas Securities’ ETF and technical strategist Todd Sohn said in a note to clients that the fund is getting a boost from its large percentage of luxury goods companies, which give investors a more stable way to bet on China’s economic reopening after its Zero Covid slowdown. “There’s crazy volatility with Chinese markets, because they decline 20-40% in any given year. And so if I don’t want to deal with that, if I can’t stomach it, let me play a derivative of it, and France, in a way, is the best way to do that,” Sohn told CNBC. For example, the biggest holding in EWQ is LVMH Moet Hennessy — Louis Vuitton , which reported that 16% of its revenue came from Asia ex-Japan in 2022 , down from 30% in 2019 , before the pandemic. With China’s reopening gaining steam this year, Paris-traded LVMH has jumped by 29%, making its chairman and CEO Bernard Arnault the world’s richest man . LVMH accounts for about 13% of the EWQ. Other large luxury holdings in the ETF include cosmetics maker L’Oreal and women’s scarves and silk accessory company Hermes International . Those stocks have helped push up the EWQ more than 14% this year to levels rarely seen in its history. The fund is threatening to top its all-time closing high, set back in November 2021, according to FactSet data. That rally barely topped a previous high from 2007. EWQ ALL mountain The iShares MSCI France ETF is trading at close to its all-time high. “You’ve been, in a way, rangebound for 15 years now,” Sohn said. To be sure, the outsized rallies for luxury stocks — and new highs for the fund — could also be a sign that a reversal is near, at least in the short-term. However, Roth MKM chief market technician JC O’Hara said in a note to clients on Sunday that it appears that luxury stocks still have room to run. “We first highlighted the strength of the Luxury Goods market in early December. Since that time, the S & P Global Luxury Goods Index has risen +13%, versus the S & P 500, +1.8%. We continue to favor the technical setup of many of the luxury good charts,” O’Hara wrote. Investors could certainly buy some of the individual luxury names on their own. But from an ETF perspective, the EWQ — with an expense ratio of 0.53% — might be the smartest option for U.S. investors even if it is not a pure play, according to Sohn. What’s more, not all French luxury goods stocks trade in the U.S. “If you want to get exposure, the France country ETF is the best way, because otherwise you’re playing Europe regional ETFs or international quality ETFs, and they’re more watered down. There’s no good thematic way to play those luxury names,” Sohn said. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Kylian Mbappé has already achieved much in his young career. The 24-year-old has won a World Cup, scored a hattrick in a World Cup final and is captain of France.
On Saturday, he added more to his résumé by becoming Paris Saint-Germain’s all-time leading scorer in Ligue 1.
Mbappé was the star of the show in a crucial 3-1 victory against Lens, scoring the opener for his 139th league goal for the club. He also beautifully set up Lionel Messi – who scored three minutes after Vitinha had put PSG 2-0 up – in a brilliant team goal.
The Frenchman has achieved his feat in 169 Ligue 1 games, overtaking Edison Cavani who netted 138 times in Ligue 1 for the club in 200 league games.
Second-placed Lens is challenging PSG for the Ligue 1 title but now nine points adrift of the Parisians it is looking likely that PSG will win an 11th title.
Salis Adbul Samed’s red card in the 19th minute didn’t help Lens.
PSG had been going through an indifferent period, losing two home games on the bounce to give title rivals Lens and Marseille hope.
PSG coach Christophe Galtier told PSG TV after the match: “If there was a match we had to win, it was this one, after the two straight losses at the Parc. Lens are one of our rivals and obviously it was important to win.
“There are seven games left. I know that Lens and Marseille will not give up. We must continue to be focused. I just saw that we have been in top spot since the beginning of the season.
“We have to continue like that and prepare well for the Angers game, which comes early, on Friday. Our fixture list looks favorable, but it is only favorable if we invest ourselves fully and show a great determination to win.”
PSG next plays Angers at the Stade Raymond-Kopa on April 21.
PARIS (AP) — French President Emmanuel Macron’s unpopular plan to raise France’s retirement age from 62 to 64 was enacted into law Saturday, the day after the country’s constitutional body approved the change.
Macron’s signature and publication in the Official Journal of the French Republic allowed the law to enter into force. The authorized changes will start being implemented in September, French government spokesperson Olivier Veran said.
On Friday, the Constitutional Council rejected some parts of the government’s pension legislation but approved the higher minimum retirement age, which was central to Macron’s plan and the focus of opponents’ protests.
The nine-member council’s decision capped months of tumultuous debates in parliament and fervor in the streets. Spontaneous demonstrations took place in Paris and across the country after the ruling.
France’s main labor unions, which organized 12 nationwide protests since January in hopes of defeating the plan, have vowed to continue fighting until it is withdrawn. They called for another mass protest on May 1, which is International Workers’ Day.
Students demonstrate Friday, April 14, 2023 in Paris.
The government argued that requiring people to work two years more before qualifying for a pension was needed to keep the pension system afloat as the population ages; opponents proposed raising taxes on the wealthy or employers instead, and said the change threatened a hard-won social safety net.
Opinion polls show Macron’s popularity has plunged to its lowest level in four years. The centrist president, who made raising the retirement age a priority of his second term, plans to make a televised national address on Monday evening, Macron’s office said.
“The president’s remarks are very much awaited” and will both seek to appease tensions in the country and explain decisions that have been made in the past months regarding the pension reform, government spokesperson Veran said.
Macron was first elected in 2017 on a promise to make France’s economy more competitive, including by making people work longer.
Since then, his government has made it easier to hire and fire workers, cut business taxes and made it more difficult for the unemployed to claim benefits.
Riot police guard the Constitutional Council building during a demonstration against pension reform in central Paris, France, on Thursday, April 13, 2023. French unions are held strikes and protests on Thursday against President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform, seeking to maintain pressure on the government before a ruling on the law’s constitutionality.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
France’s Constitutional Council on Friday approved President Emmanuel Macron‘s controversial raising of the retirement age, as nationwide protests rumbled on.
The council passed the core of the pension reforms, including the increase in the retirement age for most workers from 62 to 64, but removed six additional provisions as had been expected.
It also rejected a bid to hold a citizens’ referendum on the changes.
Macron’s unpopular plan to raise France’s retirement age was enacted into law Saturday. The president’s signature and publication in the Official Journal of the French Republic allowed the law to enter into force.
The authorized changes will start being implemented in September, French government spokesperson Olivier Veran said.
Long traffic jams formed in cities including Marseille on Friday as crowds gathered around the country to hear the court decision. Protesters made their way into the headquarters of luxury goods giant LVMH and lit smoke flares on Thursday — the same day the company’s share price reached a fresh record high, following the release of its first-quarter results.
A procession of students shouting opposition slogans with a sign reading ”Macron guillotine? Yes maybe” during a demonstration where for the twelfth time in 3 months, several thousand people, employees and students, demonstrated in the streets of Paris.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
“The Constitutional Council decision shows that it is more attentive to the needs of the presidential monarchy than to those of the sovereign people. The fight continues and must gather its forces,” said Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the leftist La France Insoumise party,according to a Reuters translation.
Far-right politician Marine Le Pen, who also opposes the reforms, said, “The people always have the last word, it is the people’s right to prepare for the change in power that will be the result of this unnecessary and unjust reform.” Analysts have said the pensions saga may provide a boost to Le Pen’s National Rally party.
Ahead of the decision, Macron said he would seek to meet with unions, which expressed their anger throughout the day.
“Given the massive [public] rejection of this reform, the unions request him solemnly to not promulgate this law, the only way to calm the anger which is being expressed in the country,” trade unions said in a joint statement reported by Agence France-Presse.
Macron and French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire argue that the reforms are fiscally necessary to secure the costly pension system into the future.
Opponents argue that the changes mark a political decision that disproportionally impacts lower-paid workers and women, while companies report bumper profits.
In an interview with French TV stations last month, Macron insisted that the moves were necessary, but acknowledged that people felt a “sense of injustice” and said he would look to make businesses contribute more.
Demonstrators march along the vieux port during the 12th day of nationwide strike on pension reform on April 13, 2023 in Marseille, France.
Marion Pehee | Getty Images News | Getty Images
The French president has faced a huge uphill political battle to get the pension changes, which he has advocated for years. His popularity has plummeted, and widespread strikes and protests that have involved clashes with police have been staged since the start of the year.
Borne used a special constitutional measure to pass the changes without a parliamentary majority because of the large number of opposing politicians. The process involved triggering Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to amend the social security budget. The government then narrowly survived a no-confidence vote.
The appeal to the Constitutional Council was based on three points concerning the information that was provided to lawmakers, the suitability of the procedure and whether the bill fills the budgetary scope, Le Monde reported.
An outright rejection was considered unlikely because the move has precedent, but the council was expected to remove more minor provisions, such as a requirement for large companies to publish annual reports on how many workers they employ who are aged 55 and over.
Ahead of the announcement, Renaud Foucart, senior lecturer in economics at Lancaster University, told CNBC that a partial approval was likely the best outcome for Macron. “He can then sit down with unions and say we can negotiate some sort of new additions or reforms with a more social focus,” Foucart said.
Demonstrations are likely to continue.
“Tonight, Paris will burn,” Foucart said. “But the decision today is likely to provide a chance for Macron to try to change the subject.”
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Foucart noted that, while the nine-member council is France’s top constitutional authority, it is not akin to a supreme court in other countries and mainly comprises former politicians elected to serve nine-year terms, rather than lawyers.
Opinion polls have suggested roughly two-thirds of people supported strikes to oppose the measures.
Christiane Denis, a 57-year-old living in outer Paris, said she was against raising the pension age to 64 because some jobs were difficult at that age and it would most impact those who start work early.
But it does have some support.
“Given the increased life expectancy, in a few years there will be too many retirees and if nothing is done today, then everyone’s pensions will be greatly reduced,” Christophe David, a 49-year-old quality control inspector, said. “Even if it does not suit me, we have no choice but to take this directive.”
The Constitutional Council rules in favour of key provisions of the reform, including raising the retirement age to 64.
French President Emmanuel Macron has signed into law a controversial bill to raise the country’s retirement age by two years.
The proclamation of the law came after France’s Constitutional Council on Friday approved the main retirement-age measure and follows months of protests against the reform, which the government forced through parliament without a final vote.
The battle to implement the law turned into the biggest domestic challenge of Macron’s second mandate, as he faced widespread popular opposition to the changes but also sliding personal popularity.
The nine-member Constitutional Council ruled in favour of key provisions of the reform, including raising the retirement age to 64 and extending the years of work required for a full pension, saying the legislation was in accordance with French law.
French police stand in position during a demonstration in front of the Paris City Hall [Stephane Mahe/Reuters]
Six minor proposals were rejected, including forcing large companies to publish how many people above 55 they employ, and the creation of a special contract for older workers.
The appearance of the text in France’s Official Journal – the gazette of record – means it has now been enacted into law.
“The Social Security Code is thus amended. In the first paragraph, the word: ‘sixty-two; is replaced by the word: ‘sixty-four’,” states the text, referring to the retirement age.
‘We don’t want it’
Spontaneous demonstrations were held around France before the council’s ruling.
Opponents of the pension reform blockaded entry points into some cities, including Rouen in the west and Marseille in the south, slowing or stopping traffic.
Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne was interrupted while visiting a supermarket outside Paris by a group of people chanting, “We don’t want it”, referring to the way she skirted the vote by lawmakers to advance the pension reform.
The government’s decision to get around a parliamentary vote in March by using special constitutional powers heightened the fury of the measure’s opponents, as well as their determination. Another group awaited Borne in the parking lot.
Union leaders have said the Constitutional Council’s decisions would be respected, but have pledged to continue protests in an attempt to get Macron to withdraw the measure.
The general secretary of the CGT union, Sophie Binet, called for a “popular and historic tidal wave” of people on the streets to oppose the reforms on May 1.
Far-right lawmaker Marine Le Pen denounced the pension reform as “brutal and unjust”. In a statement, she said once the reform is put into practice, it “will mark the definitive rupture between the French people and Emmanuel Macron”.
Polls have consistently shown the majority of French citizens are opposed to working two more years before being able to reap pension benefits.
The legislation also requires people to work 43 years to receive a full pension, among other changes to the system.
President Emmanuel Macron‘s controversial pension overhaul, pushed through by overriding the country’s parliament, could eventually erase what the French leader has been working for over the last six years, political analysts told CNBC.
Macron has placed himself as a centrist politician. When aiming to become president in 2017, he chose to establish his own party (La Republique en Marche!, which has been rebranded Renaissance) and tried to break away from the traditional conservative and socialist stances. He positioned himself as an opposite to extremism and a solution to the rather staid politics of the past.
At elections in 2017 and 2022, he comfortably overcame the far-right challenge of Marine Le Pen — but analysts now predict a more clouded outlook with Macron not eligible to run in 2027.
Macron’s recent decision to use special legislative powers to push through a hike in the retirement age adds to a wider dissatisfaction with the political system, Armin Steinbach, a professor of European law and economics at H.E.C. Business School, told CNBC last week.
A poll published earlier this month by the French business channel BFM TV showed that if there were a vote today between Macron and the National Rally’s Le Pen, the sitting president would lose with 45% of the votes. Macron won the 2022 election with 58.5% of the support.
Macron is not grooming anyone and that’s part of the problem.
Shahin Vallée
senior research fellow, German Council on Foreign Relations
Macron’s popularity rating has worsened in the wake of the pension reforms. At the end of March, almost 70% of people surveyed disapproved of the president, versus 61% at the start of the year.
“The bottom line is that it is definitely increasing the split in the society,” Steinbach added.
France has seen 11 days of protest against the new pension laws. The proposed legislation pushes the retirement age up from 62 to 64, and for Macron, and his government, it’s a necessity in order to balance the public finances.
Without enough parliamentary support for the reforms, the French government used Article 49.3 of the constitution, which means the law passes through the lower chamber without a vote. The move angered many French lawmakers and citizens and France’s top court on Friday is due to rule on whether the proposals follow the country’s constitution.
When asked if Macron’s actions would boost more extremist parties, Shahin Vallée, a senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, said: “Yes, absolutely.”
Vallée, a former economic advisor to Macron when he served as French economy minister, added that the reforms are “polarizing” voters and will have “disastrous medium-term consequences for the French public.”
Le Pen has voiced her opposition to the pension reform. In the 2022 election, she said she was in favor of keeping the retirement age at 62 and lowering it to 60 for workers who started their careers before the age of 20.
On top of potentially more support for parties from the political extremes, experts have mentioned how Macron’s lack of a clear successor will also impact future elections.
“Macron is not grooming anyone and that’s part of the problem,” Vallée said, adding that “Renaissance [party] is a one man party.”
Macron is serving his second mandate as president and the French constitution prevents him from running again for the job in 2027. Without a strong candidate to lead his party at the next election, the centrist group might struggle to pick up enough votes.
Three different spokespeople for the Renaissance party, including Secretary General Stéphane Séjourné, were not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.
But the fact that there’s not a clear successor from Macron’s own party could also be tactical.
“None of them have an interest in being the official successor,” Steinbach said, mentioning Bruno Le Maire, the current finance minister, and Edouard Philippe, the former prime minister, as potential successors. He argued that a “natural break” from Macron would be more helpful for potential successors when gathering votes, as they could more easily distance themselves from the negative connections of the sitting president.
Vallée also said he wouldn’t be surprised if Macron takes on a job in the European Union after this mandate, “it could be a great holding spot, especially if Le Pen gets elected in 2027.”
In an interview with Politico, François Bayrou, a top ally of Macron, also said that Macron’s participation in French politics will not end after his second mandate as president.
Stop driving Europe away from the United States, dismayed central and eastern European officials fumed on Tuesday as French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments continued to ripple across the Continent.
Macron jolted allies in the EU’s eastern half after a visit to China last week when he cautioned the Continent against getting pulled into a U.S.-China dispute over Taiwan, the self-ruled island Beijing claims as its own, imploring his neighbors to avoid becoming Washington and Beijing’s “vassals.”
The comments rattled those near the EU’s eastern edge, who have historically favored closer ties with the Americans — especially on defense — and pushed for a hasher approach to Beijing.
“Instead of building strategic autonomy from the United States, I propose a strategic partnership with the United States,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Tuesday before flying off to the U.S., of all places, for a three-day visit.
Privately, diplomats were even franker.
“We cannot understand [Macron’s] position on transatlantic relations during these very challenging times,” said one diplomat from an Eastern European country, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to freely express themselves. “We, as the EU, should be united. Unfortunately, this visit and French remarks following it are not helpful.”
The reactions reflect the long-simmering divisions within Europe over how to best defend itself. Macron has long argued for Europe to become more autonomous economically and militarily — a push many in Central and Eastern Europe fear could alienate a valuable U.S. helping keep Russia at bay, even if they support boosting the EU’s ability to act independently.
“In the current world of geopolitical shifts, and especially in the face of Russia’s war against Ukraine, it is obvious that democracies have to work closer together than ever before,” said another senior diplomat from Eastern Europe. “We should be all reminded of the wisdom of the first U.S ambassador to France Benjamin Franklin who rightly remarked that either we stick together or we will be hanged separately.”
Macron, a third senior diplomat from the same region huffed, was freelancing yet again: “It is not the first time that Macron has expressed views that are his own and do not represent the EU’s position.”
Walking into controversy
In his interview, Macron touched on a tense subject within Europe: how it should balance itself against the superpower fight between the U.S. and China.
The French president encouraged Europe to chart its own course, cautioning that Europe faces a “great risk” if it “gets caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building its strategic autonomy.”
Macron said he wants Europe to become a “third pole” to counterbalance China and the U.S. in the long term | Pool photo by Jacques Witt/AFP via Getty Images
It’s a stance that has many adherents within Europe — and has even worked its way into official EU policy as officials work to slowly ensure the Continent’s supply lines aren’t fully yoked to China and others on everything from weapons to electric vehicles.
Macron said he wants Europe to become a “third pole” to counterbalance China and the U.S. in the long term. An imminent conflict between Being and Washington, he argued, would put that goal at risk.
Yet out east, officials lamented that the French leader was simply treating the U.S. and China as if they were essentially the same in a global power play.
The comments, the second diplomat said, were “both ill-timed and inappropriate to put both the United States and China on a par and suggest that the EU should keep strategic distance to both of them.”
A Central European diplomat flatly dismissed Macron’s stance as “pretty outrageous,” while another official from the same region chalked it up to an attempt “to distract from other problems and show that France is bigger than what it is” — a reference to the protests roiling France amid Macron’s pension reforms.
The frustration in Central and Eastern Europe stems in part from a feeling that the French president has never made clear who would replace Washington in Europe — especially if Russia expands its war beyond Ukraine, said Kristi Raik, head of the foreign policy program at the International Centre for Defence and Security, a think tank in Estonia, a country of about 1.3 million people that borders Russia.
It’s an emotional point for Europe’s eastern half, where memories of the Soviet era linger.
“We hear Macron talking about European strategic autonomy, and somehow just being completely silent about the issue, which has become so clear in Ukraine, that actually European security and defense depends very strongly on the U.S.,” Raik said.
Raik noted, of course, that European countries, most notably Germany, are scrambling to update their militaries. France has also pledged large increases in its defense budgets.
But these changes, she cautioned, will take a “very long time.”
If Macron “wants to be serious in showing that he really aims at a Europe that is capable of defending itself,” Raik argued, “he also should be showing that France is willing to do much more to defend Europe vis-à-vis Russia.”
BERLIN — German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is heading to China to represent Berlin, but she’ll likely have more explaining to do about Paris in the wake of French President Emmanuel Macron’s explosive comments on Taiwan.
As Baerbock embarked on her two-day visit Wednesday evening, officials in Berlin were eager to stress that Germany and the EU care about Taiwan and stability in the region, arguing it’s mainly China that must contribute to de-escalation by refraining from aggressive military maneuvers close to the island nation.
Baerbock’s trip comes amid international backlash against Macron’s comments in an interview with POLITICO, arguing Europe should avoid becoming America’s follower, including on the matter of Taiwan’s security. Although German government spokespeople refused to comment directly on the French president’s remarks, a spokesperson for the foreign ministry specifically called out Beijing when expressing “great concern” over the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
“We expect all parties in the region to contribute to peace. That applies equally to the People’s Republic of China,” the spokesperson said, adding: “And it seems to us that actions such as military threatening gestures are counter to that goal and, in fact, increase the risk of unintended military clashes.”
Nils Schmid, the foreign policy spokesperson for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), said he expects Baerbock to “set the record straight” during her trip to China, which will involve meetings with Beijing’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang, Vice President Han Zheng and top diplomat Wang Yi.
“We clearly defined in the [government] coalition agreement that we need a changed China policy because China has changed. The chancellor made that clear during his visit. Above all, Scholz also issued clear warnings about Taiwan during his visit [last year],” Schmid wrote in a tweet. “I assume that Foreign Minister Baerbock will repeat exactly that and thus set the record straight and make a clarification after Macron’s botched visit.”
Berlin traditionally has been much more in sync with the U.S. on foreign and security policy than France has, which is why many politicians and officials in the German capital reacted with horror to Macron’s comments. The French president said Europe should not take its “cue from the U.S. agenda and a Chinese overreaction,” suggesting the EU stood between the two sides, rather than being aligned with its longtime democratic partners in Washington.
Macron gave the impression to some in the U.S. that Europeans see Beijing and Washington as “equidistant” from Brussels in terms of values and as allies, said SPD foreign policy lawmaker Metin Hakverdi, who is currently on a parliamentary visit to the U.S.
“That was foolish,” Hakverdi told POLITICO, adding that “Macron potentially damaged the peaceful status quo around Taiwan” by giving “the public impression that Europe has no particular interest in the conflict over Taiwan.
“The issue of Taiwan is not an internal matter for the People’s Republic of China. Anything else would virtually invite Beijing to attack Taiwan,” Hakverdi added. “I am confident that our foreign minister will make that clear during her trip to Asia — both to Beijing and to our Asian partners.”
Katja Leikert from the main German opposition party, the center-right CDU, criticized Macron’s comments as “extremely short-sighted,” and added: “Should China decide to strike Taiwan militarily, either by invading it or by starting a maritime blockade, this would have significant political and economic repercussions for us. We cannot just wish that away.
“What we actually need to do right now is strengthen our defense against aggressive measures from Beijing,” Leikert said.
For Berlin, Macron’s comments also come at a particularly bad moment for transatlantic ties. The German government is keen to mend cracks in its relationship with Washington that have emerged over the controversial benefits for U.S. businesses under Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Europe hopes to reach an agreement so that its own companies may also be eligible for these subsidies.
Macron’s comments “will not help in renegotiations on the Inflation Reduction Act, nor will they help Joe Biden in the election campaign against populist Republican candidates,” said the SPD’s Hakverdi.
The German foreign ministry spokesperson was quick to stress that both France and Germany were involved in shaping a joint EU-China policy | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
The German foreign ministry spokesperson was quick to stress that both France and Germany were involved in shaping a joint EU-China policy, which was also done in cooperation “with our transatlantic partner.”
During her trip to China, Baerbock plans to raise the situation in the Taiwan Strait; Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine; the human rights situation in China; as well as the fight against climate crisis, the spokesperson said.
Baerbock’s foreign ministry is also currently drafting Germany’s first China strategy. A draft of this seen by POLITICO last year vowed to take a much harder line toward Beijing. Baerbock and her Green party are at the forefront of pushing such a tougher position, while Scholz has long preferred a softer approach.
Incidentally, however, the German government said Wednesday it is reassessing whether to potentially take a firmer stance and ban Chinese state company Cosco from going through with a highly controversial move to buy parts of a Hamburg port terminal.
Scholz had strongly pushed for the port deal ahead of his own trip to Beijing last year, but the future of the transaction is now in doubt after German security authorities classified the terminal as “critical infrastructure.”
There’s an Emmanuel Macron-shaped shadow hovering over this week’s U.S. visit by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
In contrast to the French president — who in an interview with POLITICO tried to put some distance between the U.S. and Europe in any future confrontation with China over Taiwan and called for strengthening the Continent’s “strategic autonomy” — the Polish leader is underlining the critical importance of the alliance between America and Europe, not least because his country is one of Kyiv’s strongest allies in the war with Russia.
“Instead of building strategic autonomy from the United States, I propose a strategic partnership with the United States,” he said before flying to Washington.
In the U.S. capital, Morawiecki continued with his under-the-table kicks at the French president.
“I see no alternative, and we are absolutely on the same wavelength here, to building an even closer alliance with the Americans. If countries to the west of Poland understand this less, it is probably because of historical circumstances,” he said on Tuesday in Washington.
Unlike France, which has spent decades bristling at Europe’s reliance on the U.S. for its security, Poland is one of the Continent’s keenest American allies. Warsaw has pushed hard for years for U.S. troops to be stationed on its territory, and many of its recent arms contracts have gone to American companies. It signed a $1.4 billion deal earlier this year to buy a second batch of Abrams tanks, and has also agreed to spend $4.6 billion on advanced F-35 fighter jets.
“I am glad that this proposal for an even deeper strategic partnership is something that finds such fertile ground here in the United States, because we know that there are various concepts formulated by others in Europe, concepts that create more threats, more question marks, more unknowns,” Morawiecki said. “Poland is trying to maintain the most commonsense policy based on a close alliance with the United States within the framework of the European Union, and this is the best path for Poland.”
Fast friends
Poland has become one of Ukraine’s most important allies, and access to its roads, railways and airports is crucial in funneling weapons, ammunition and other aid to Ukraine.
That’s helped shift perceptions of Poland — seen before the war as an increasingly marginal member of the Western club thanks to its issues with violating the rule of law, into a key country of the NATO alliance.
Warsaw also sees the Russian attack on Ukraine as justifying its long-held suspicion of its historical foe, and it hasn’t been shy in pointing the finger at Paris and Berlin for being wrong about the threat posed by the Kremlin.
“Old Europe believed in an agreement with Russia, and old Europe failed,” Morawiecki said in a joint news conference with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris. “But there is a new Europe — Europe that remembers what Russian communism was. And Poland is the leader of this new Europe.”
That’s why Macron’s comments have been seized on by Warsaw.
According to Poland’s PM Mateusz Morawiecki, Emmanuel Macron’s talks of distancing the EU from America “threatens to break up” the block | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
“I absolutely don’t agree with President Macron. We believe that more America is needed in Europe … We want more cooperation with the U.S. on a partnership basis,” Marcin Przydacz, a foreign policy adviser to Polish President Andrzej Duda, told Poland’s Radio Zet, adding that the strategic autonomy idea pushed by Macron “has the goal of cutting links between Europe and the United States.”
While Poland is keen on European countries hitting NATO’s goal of spending at least 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense — a target that only seven alliance members, including Poland, but not France and Germany, are meeting — and has no problem with them building up military industries, it doesn’t want to weaken ties with the U.S., said Sławomir Dębski, head of the state-financed Polish Institute of International Affairs.
He warned that Macron’s talks of distancing Europe from America in the event of a conflict with China “threatens to break up the EU, which is against the interests not only of Poland, but also of most European countries.”
Europe has special forces on the ground in Ukraine. Poland and Slovenia are providing nearly half of the tanks heading to Kyiv. And Hungary may be letting arms through its airspace.
Those are just a few of the eye-catching details about Europe’s participation in the war buried in a 53-page dossier POLITICO reviewed from a leak of unverified U.S. military intelligence documents.
The disclosure has generated a tempest of head-spinning revelations that has the U.S. playing clean-up with allies. The documents detail American doubts about Ukraine’s spring offensive, suggest it was spying on South Korea and display intelligence accusing Egypt of plotting to prop up Russia’s quixotic war.
Yet Europe, for the most part, has been spared these relationship-damaging divulgences.
That doesn’t mean there isn’t knowledge to be gleaned about Europe’s war effort from the documents, however. The leaked files contain insights on everything from a U.K.-dominated special forces group in Ukraine to how — and when — France and Spain are getting a key missile system to the battlefield. The documents also contain allegations that Turkey is a potential source of arms for Russian mercenaries.
POLITICO has not independently verified the documents, and there have been indications that some of the leaked pages were doctored. But the U.S. has acknowledged the intelligence breach and arrested a suspect late on Thursday.
Here are a few of POLITICO’s findings after poring over the file.
Europe has boots on the ground
There is a Europe-heavy special forces group operating in Ukraine — at least as of March 23 — according to the documents.
The United Kingdom dominates the 97-person strong “US/NATO” contingent with 50 special forces members. The group also includes 17 people from Latvia, 15 from France and one from the Netherlands. Fourteen U.S. personnel round out the team.
The leaked information does not specify which activities the forces are carrying out or their location in Ukraine. The documents also show the U.S. has about 100 personnel in total in the country.
Predictably, governments have remained mostly mum on the subject. The Brits have refused to comment, while the White House has conceded there is a “small U.S. military presence” at the U.S. embassy in Ukraine, stressing that the troops “are not fighting on the battlefield.” France previously denied that its forces were “engaged in operations in Ukraine.”
The rest of the countries did not reply to a request for comment.
Europe is providing the bulk of the tanks
A Ukrainian tank drives down a street in the heavily damaged town of Siversk | Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Tanks are one area where Europe — collectively — is outpacing America.
Within the file, one page gives an overview of the 200 tanks that U.S. allies have committed to sending Ukraine — 53 short of what the document says Ukraine needs for its spring offensive.
Poland and Slovenia appear to be the largest contributors, committing nearly half of the total, according to an assessment dated February 23. France and the U.K. are also key players, pitching in 14 tanks each.
Then there’s the Leopard 2 crew, which is donating versions of the modern German battle tanks that Ukraine spent months convincing allies it needed. That lineup includes Germany, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Greece and Finland.
The document indicates Germany had committed just four Leopard 2s — the most high-end model — but Berlin said in late March that it had delivered 18 Leopards to Ukraine. It also shows Sweden pledging 10 tanks of an “unknown type,” which media reports suggest may be Leopards.
Separately, the U.S. has said it will send Ukraine 31 of its modern tanks, though those aren’t expected to arrive until at least the fall.
Europe’s deliveries are lagging, too
The idea behind Europe taking the lead on tanks was partly that it could get the tanks to Ukraine and ready for battle swiftly — ideally in time for the spring offensive.
But the document shows that as of February 23, only 31 percent of the 200 tanks pledged had gotten to the battlefield. It did note, however, that the remaining 120 tanks were on track to be transferred.
Separately, another leaked page recounts that France told Italy on February 22 that a joint missile system would not be ready for Ukraine until June. That’s the very end of a timeline the Italian defense ministry laid out in February, when officials said the anti-aircraft defense system would be delivered to Ukraine “in the spring of 2023.”
Hungary sees America as the enemy — but might be letting allies use its airspace
Hungary pops up a couple of times in the pile of creased pages, offering more insights into a country that regularly perplexes its own allies.
The most eye-popping nugget is buried in a “top secret” CIA update from March 2, which says Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán branded the U.S. “one of his party’s top three adversaries during a political strategy session” on February 22.
The remarks, it notes, constitute “an escalation of the level of anti-American rhetoric” from Orbán.
Indeed, Orbán’s government has charted its own course during the war, promoting Russia-friendly narratives, essentially calling on Ukraine to quit and caustically dismissing allied efforts to isolate Russia’s economy.
However, the leaked U.S. documents also indicate Hungary — which shares a small border with Ukraine — may be secretly letting allies use its airspace to move arms toward the battlefield, despite pledges to bar such transfers.
Intelligence leaks suspect Jack Teixeira reflected in an image of the Pentagon in Washington, DC | Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
One of the leaked documents details a plan for Ukrainian pilots to fly donated helicopters from Croatia to Ukraine “through Hungarian air space.” If true, the information would not only show Hungary is letting arms pass through its skies, but also contradict press reports indicating the helicopters would be transferred on the ground or through flights into Poland.
Hungarian and Croatian officials didn’t reply to requests for comment.
Did the Brits downplay a confrontation with Russia?
Publicly, the U.K. has told a consistent story: A Russian fighter jet “released” a missile “in the vicinity” of a U.K. surveillance plane over the Black Sea last September. A close call, to be sure, but not a major incident.
The leaked U.S. dossier, however, hints at something more serious. It describes the incident as a “near shoot-down” of the British aircraft. The language appears to go beyond what U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told lawmakers last October. This week, The New York Times reported that the Russian pilot had locked on the British aircraft before the missile failed to fire properly.
The document also details several other close encounters in recent months between Russian fighter jets and U.S., U.K. and French surveillance aircraft — a subject that jumped into the news last month when a Russian fighter jet collided with a U.S. drone, sending it crashing into the Black Sea.
Wallace has not commented on the leaked description, and a ministry spokesperson on Thursday pointed to a prior statement saying there was a “serious level of inaccuracy” in the divulged dossier.
Turkey is the war’s middleman in Europe
Turkey has portrayed itself as a conciliator between Ukraine and Russia, helping negotiate a deal to keep grain shipments flowing through the Black Sea and maintaining diplomatic ties with Russia while also providing Ukraine with drones.
The leaked pile of clandestine U.S. intelligence reports, however, shows a darker side to Turkey’s position as a middleman that distinctly favors Russia.
One page describes how Turkey helped both Russia and its ally Belarus evade strict Western sanctions — a concern U.S. officials have expressed publicly.
For Belarus, the document says, “Turkish companies purchased sanctioned goods” and then “sold them in European markets.” In the opposite direction, it adds, these companies “resold goods from Europe to Russia.”
More alarming is another leaked document that describes a meeting in February between “Turkish contacts” and the Wagner Group, the private militia firm fighting for the Kremlin. It says Wagner was seeking “to purchase weapons and equipment from Turkey” for the group’s “efforts in Mali and Ukraine.”
The information, which the document says came from “signals intelligence” — a euphemism for digital surveillance — does not explain whether the purchases have occurred.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
For Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, next month’s election is of massive historical significance.
It falls 100 years after the foundation of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s secular republic and, if Erdoğan wins, he will be empowered to put even more of his stamp on the trajectory of a geostrategic heavyweight of 85 million people. The fear in the West is that he will see this as his moment to push toward an increasingly religiously conservative model, characterized by regional confrontationalism, with greater political powers centered around himself.
The election will weigh heavily on security in Europe and the Middle East. Who is elected stands to define: Turkey’s role in the NATO alliance; its relationship with the U.S., the EU and Russia; migration policy; Ankara’s role in the war in Ukraine; and how it handles tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The May 14 vote is expected to be the most hotly contested race in Erdoğan’s 20-year rule — as the country grapples with years of economic mismanagement and the fallout from a devastating earthquake.
He will face an opposition aligned behind Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, nicknamed the “Turkish Gandhi,” who is promising big changes. Polls suggest Kılıçdaroğlu has eked out a lead, but Erdoğan is a hardened election campaigner, with the full might of the state and its institutions at his back.
“There will be a change from an authoritarian single-man rule, towards a kind of a teamwork, which is a much more democratic process,” Ünal Çeviköz, chief foreign policy adviser to Kılıçdaroğlu told POLITICO. “Kılıçdaroğlu will be the maestro of that team.”
Here are the key foreign policy topics in play in the vote:
EU and Turkish accession talks
Turkey’s opposition is confident it can unfreeze European Union accession talks — at a standstill since 2018 over the country’s democratic backsliding — by introducing liberalizing reforms in terms of rule of law, media freedoms and depoliticization of the judiciary.
The opposition camp also promises to implement European Court of Human Rights decisions calling for the release of two of Erdoğan’s best-known jailed opponents: the co-leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party Selahattin Demirtaş and human rights defender Osman Kavala.
“This will simply give the message to all our allies, and all the European countries, that Turkey is back on track to democracy,” Çeviköz said.
Even under a new administration, however, the task of reopening the talks on Turkey’s EU accession is tricky.
Turkey’s opposition is aligned behind Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, nicknamed the “Turkish Gandhi” | Burak Kara/Getty Images
Anti-Western feeling in Turkey is very strong across the political spectrum, argued Wolfango Piccoli, co-founder of risk analysis company Teneo.
“Foreign policy will depend on the coherence of the coalition,” he said. “This is a coalition of parties who have nothing in common apart from the desire to get rid of Erdoğan. They’ve got a very different agenda, and this will have an impact in foreign policy.”
“The relationship is largely comatose, and has been for some time, so, they will keep it on life support,” he said, adding that any new government would have so many internal problems to deal with that its primary focus would be domestic.
Europe also seems unprepared to handle a new Turkey, with a group of countries — most prominently France and Austria — being particularly opposed to the idea of rekindling ties.
“They are used to the idea of a non-aligned Turkey, that has departed from EU norms and values and is doing its own course,” said Aslı Aydıntaşbaş a visiting fellow at Brookings. “If the opposition forms a government, it will seek a European identity and we don’t know Europe’s answer to that; whether it could be accession or a new security framework that includes Turkey.”
“Obviously the erosion of trust has been mutual,” said former Turkish diplomat Sinan Ülgen, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank, arguing that despite reticence about Turkish accession, there are other areas where a complementary and mutually beneficiary framework could be built, like the customs union, visa liberalization, cooperation on climate, security and defense, and the migration agreement.
The opposition will indeed seek to revisit the 2016 agreement with the EU on migration, Çeviköz said.
“Our migration policy has to be coordinated with the EU,” he said. “Many countries in Europe see Turkey as a kind of a pool, where migrants coming from the east can be contained and this is something that Turkey, of course cannot accept,” he said but added. “This doesn’t mean that Turkey should open its borders and make the migrants flow into Europe. But we need to coordinate and develop a common migration policy.”
NATO and the US
After initially imposing a veto, Turkey finally gave the green light to Finland’s NATO membership on March 30.
But the opposition is also pledging to go further and end the Turkish veto on Sweden, saying that this would be possible by the alliance’s annual gathering on July 11. “If you carry your bilateral problems into a multilateral organization, such as NATO, then you are creating a kind of a polarization with all the other members of NATO with your country,” Çeviköz said.
A protester pushes a cart with a RRecep Tayyip Erdoğan doll during an anti-NATO and anti-Turkey demonstration in Sweden | Jonas Gratzer/Getty Images
A reelected Erdoğan could also feel sufficiently empowered to let Sweden in, many insiders argue. NATO allies did, after all, play a significant role in earthquake aid. Turkish presidential spokesperson İbrahim Kalın says that the door is not closed to Sweden, but insists the onus is on Stockholm to determine how things proceed.
Turkey’s military relationship with the U.S. soured sharply in 2019 when Ankara purchased the Russian-made S-400 missile system, a move the U.S. said would put NATO aircraft flying over Turkey at risk. In response, the U.S. kicked Ankara out of the F-35 jet fighter program and slapped sanctions on the Turkish defense industry.
A meeting in late March between Kılıçdaroğlu and the U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Jeff Flake infuriated Erdoğan, who saw it as an intervention in the elections and pledged to “close the door” to the U.S. envoy. “We need to teach the United States a lesson in this elections,” the irate president told voters.
In its policy platform, the opposition makes a clear reference to its desire to return to the F-35 program.
Russia and the war in Ukraine
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkey presented itself as a middleman. It continues to supply weapons — most significantly Bayraktar drones — to Ukraine, while refusing to sanction Russia. It has also brokered a U.N. deal that allows Ukrainian grain exports to pass through the blockaded Black Sea.
Highlighting his strategic high-wire act on Russia, after green-lighting Finland’s NATO accession and hinting Sweden could also follow, Erdoğan is now suggesting that Turkey could be the first NATO member to host Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Maybe there is a possibility” that Putin may travel to Turkey on April 27 for the inauguration of the country’s first nuclear power reactor built by Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom, he said.
Çeviköz said that under Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership, Turkey would be willing to continue to act as a mediator and extend the grain deal, but would place more stress on Ankara’s status as a NATO member.
“We will simply emphasize the fact that Turkey is a member of NATO, and in our discussions with Russia, we will certainly look for a relationship among equals, but we will also remind Russia that Turkey is a member of NATO,” he said.
Turkey’s relationship with Russia has become very much driven by the relationship between Putin and Erdoğan and this needs to change, Ülgen argued.
Turkey brokered a U.N. deal that allows Ukrainian grain exports to pass through the blockaded Black Sea | Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images
“No other Turkish leader would have the same type of relationship with Putin, it would be more distant,” he said. “It does not mean that Turkey would align itself with the sanctions; it would not. But nonetheless, the relationship would be more transparent.”
Syria and migration
The role of Turkey in Syria is highly dependent on how it can address the issue of Syrians living in Turkey, the opposition says.
Turkey hosts some 4 million Syrians and many Turks, battling a major cost-of-living crisis, are becoming increasingly hostile. Kılıçdaroğlu has pledged to create opportunities and the conditions for the voluntary return of Syrians.
“Our approach would be to rehabilitate the Syrian economy and to create the conditions for voluntary returns,” Çeviköz said, adding that this would require an international burden-sharing, but also establishing dialogue with Damascus.
Erdoğan is also trying to establish a rapprochement with Syria but Syrian President Bashar al-Assad says he will only meet the Turkish president when Ankara is ready to completely withdraw its military from northern Syria.
“A new Turkish government will be more eager to essentially shake hands with Assad,” said Ülgen. “But this will remain a thorny issue because there will be conditions attached on the side of Syria to this normalization.”
However, Piccoli from Teneo said voluntary returns of Syrians was “wishful thinking.”
“These are Syrians who have been living in Turkey for more than 10 years, their children have been going to school in Turkey from day one. So, the pledges of sending them back voluntarily, it is very questionable to what extent they can be implemented.”
Greece and the East Med
Turkey has stepped up its aggressive rhetoric against Greece in recent months, with the Erdoğan even warning that a missile could strike Athens.
But the prompt reaction by the Greek government and the Greek community to the recent devastating earthquakes in Turkey and a visit by the Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias created a new backdrop for bilateral relations.
A Turkish drill ship before it leaves for gas exploration | Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images
Dendias, along with his Turkish counterpart Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, announced that Turkey would vote for Greece in its campaign for a non-permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council for 2025-26 and that Greece would support the Turkish candidacy for the General Secretariat of the International Maritime Organization.
In another sign of a thaw, Greek Defense Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos and Migration Minister Notis Mitarachi visited Turkey this month, with Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar saying he hoped that the Mediterranean and Aegean would be a “sea of friendship” between the two countries. Akar said he expected a moratorium with Greece in military and airforce exercises in the Aegean Sea between June 15 and September 15.
“Both countries are going to have elections, and probably they will have the elections on the same day. So, this will open a new horizon in front of both countries,” Çeviköz said.
“The rapprochement between Turkey and Greece in their bilateral problems [in the Aegean], will facilitate the coordination in addressing the other problems in the eastern Mediterranean, which is a more multilateral format,” he said. Disputes over maritime borders and energy exploration, for example, are common.
As far as Cyprus is concerned, Çeviköz said that it is important for Athens and Ankara not to intervene into the domestic politics of Cyprus and the “two peoples on the island should be given an opportunity to look at their problems bilaterally.”
However, analysts argue that Greece, Cyprus and the EastMed are fundamental for Turkey’s foreign policy and not much will change with another government. The difference will be more one of style.
“The approach to manage those differences will change very much. So, we will not hear aggressive rhetoric like: ‘We will come over one night,’” said Ülgen. “We’ll go back to a more mature, more diplomatic style of managing differences and disputes.”
“The NATO framework will be important, and the U.S. would have to do more in terms of re-establishing the sense of balance in the Aegean,” said Aydıntaşbaş. But, she argued, “you just cannot normalize your relations with Europe or the U.S., unless you’re willing to take that step with Greece.”
At least four people were killed and several others injured in an avalanche that struck the French Alps over the weekend.
Emergency workers were deployed after the incident at the Armancette glacier near Mont Blanc in southeast France, Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin tweeted on Sunday. Rescue work is ongoing.
Clouds of snow rolled down the mountainside, according to video footage shared by Reuters that was tweeted by a nearby ski station, Contamines-Montjoie.
The avalanche spread across an area of 1 kilometer by 500 meters, at an altitude of 3,500 meters (11,480 feet), according to a spokesperson for the local authorities of Haute-Savoie, Reuters reported.
The people swept away by the avalanche were backcountry skiing and the identities of the victims are being confirmed.
The mayor of the town of Contamines-Montjoie, Francois Barbier, told Agence France-Presse it was “the most deadly avalanche this season.”
French President Emmanuel Macron sent his condolences to the victims and their loved ones.
“At the Armancette glacier in the Alps, an avalanche has caused casualties. We are thinking of them and their families. Our rescue forces have been mobilized to find people still stuck in the snow. Our thoughts are with them too,” Macron tweeted on Sunday.
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