Several energy companies are expected to post record earnings in 2022.
Exxon Mobil
alone is on track to make about $60 billion. But 2023 is a different story. While the setup is still very strong for most oil-and-gas companies, many are expected to see their earnings per share fall from 2022 levels.
Oil prices have fallen well below last year’s highs, and natural gas has slipped too. Producers of oil and gas are also expecting higher costs this year, with oil services companies raising their rates.
Failure to act on the climate emergency means ‘parts of our planet will be uninhabitable and for many it will be a death sentence’, Antonio Guterres warns.
Some big oil companies ignored their own science on the dangers of climate change and “peddled the big lie” for decades about the safety of burning fossil fuels, the United Nations chief said.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres delivered a sobering message to the elite gathering of world leaders and corporate executives in the Swiss ski resort of Davos.
The world is in a “sorry state” because of myriad interlinked challenges – including climate change and Russia’s war in Ukraine – which are “piling up like cars in a chain reaction crash” amid the “gravest levels of geopolitical division and mistrust in generations”, said Guterres.
He singled out climate change as an “existential challenge” and said a global commitment to limit the Earth’s temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) “is nearly going up in smoke”.
“Every week brings another climate horror story. Greenhouse gases are at record levels and growing. Without action, we are going up to a 2.8C increase and the consequences – as we all know – would be devastating.
“Several parts of our planet will be uninhabitable and for many, it will be a death sentence.”
‘Baking our planet’
Guterres, who has been one of the most outspoken world figures on climate change, referenced a recent study that found scientists at Exxon Mobil made remarkably accurate predictions about the effects of climate change as far back as the 1970s, even as the company publicly doubted global warming was real.
“The science has been clear for decades. I’m not talking only about UN scientists, I’m talking even about fossil fuel scientists,” Guterres said.
“We learned last week that certain fossil fuel producers were fully aware in the 1970s that their core product was baking our planet, and just like the tobacco industry, they rode roughshod over their own science.
“Some in Big Oil peddled the big lie. And like the tobacco industry, those responsible must be held to account.”
DAVOS, Switzerland—As snow pounds the Swiss mountain town of Davos, American lawmakers are huddled in warm, quiet rooms trying to assuage European concerns that the United States hasn’t just turned into a protectionist power.
The passage of Washington’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the $369 billion behemoth legislation stuffed with clean-energy incentives, has upended EU-U.S. relations, prompting European accusations that the U.S. is unfairly boosting its own companies to encourage local investment.
In response, the EU is looking to counter with state-provided aid of its own. As the World Economic Forum hosts its annual event in Davos this week, a U.S. delegation — featuring some of the most high-profile members of Congress — was planning to meet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen Monday night to discuss the issue before she gives a much-anticipated speech here Tuesday morning. That meeting was canceled due to travel issues for von der Leyen, however, though U.S. lawmakers are still hoping to reschedule.
The mix of U.S. senators and House members say Europe has it all wrong. The U.S., they told POLITICO in multiple exclusive interviews on the sidelines of the elite gathering, is simply investing in its own energy and economic security. And a stronger America means a stronger ally, they argued.
Europe and Germany “became too reliant on Russian energy,” said Senator Chris Coons, a Democrat from Delaware who’s leading the delegation, adding “my hope is that we can together find a path forward.” American and European leaders need to “have that conversation about the alignment of values and priorities.”
But Europe doesn’t see alignments right now — only breaks.
After something of a golden era of EU-U.S. cooperation following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — the two sides worked constructively together to devise complex sanctions packages against Moscow — Europe was caught off guard by America’s subsidy-heavy legislation. In particular, a provision granting tax credits for electric vehicles manufactured in North America incensed the Europeans — including big car producers like France and Germany.
American lawmakers understand the criticism but believe it’s misguided. Senator Joe Manchin, the centrist Democrat from West Virginia who was instrumental in passing the IRA, said Europe is being “hyper hypocritical” after decades of European protectionism.
Manchin continued that, on a separate occasion, he told French President Emmanuel Macron the IRA couldn’t possibly hurt Europe, despite the concerns.
That’s the same message he’s delivering in the winter wonderland.
“That bill was designed to basically strengthen the United States so that we can help our allies and friends, which need it right now,” Manchin said. “And if anybody needs it, the EU needs it. And without that, we’re not going to be and maintain the superpower status of the world if we’re not energy independent.”
Representative Gregory Meeks from New York, the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s top Democrat, said Europeans still seem nervous despite the bipartisan message from Democrats and Republicans. They’re asking if lawmakers can still amend the legislation to assuage fears of withering European investments. Meeks has been retorting that “there’s no perfect bill,” and that it’s “extremely important” to secure America’s supply chain for critical semiconductors and to combat climate change.
Yet how the U.S. tackles climate change is still a point of contention within Congress, as Manchin — who retains immense sway with a razor-thin Democratic majority in the Senate — says fossil fuels remain vital to the American economy.
“I told them, I said, the most important thing is basically you cannot eliminate your way to clean your climate,” Manchin said outside the Hilton Garden Inn, where lawmakers are staying. “You can innovate it, and that’s what we’re doing in the U.S.”
Von der Leyen is expected to touch on the subsidy spat during her keynote speech Tuesday at the World Economic Forum.
She previewed last week that EU officials are focusing their attention on trying to secure changes that would allow them to also benefit from the U.S. tax incentives, which currently extend to Mexico and Canada. Privately, however, EU officials concede there is minimal room for maneuver, given the IRA has already passed Congress.
This week in Davos could be an opportunity for two of the world’s biggest trading blocs — the EU and the United States — to try and iron out their differences. But with little room for compromise, the Atlantic Ocean between the two seems as wide as ever.
This article was updated after a meeting Monday between Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. lawmakers was canceled due to travel issues.
Even during a year in which the S&P 500 index declined 19%, with 72% of its stocks in the red, there were plenty of winners.
Before showing you the list of the best performers in the benchmark index, let’s look at a preview: Here’s how the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 SPX, -0.25%
performed for the year:
Index
2022 price change
Forward P/E
Forward P/E as of Dec. 31, 2021
Energy
59.0%
9.7
11.1
Utilities
-1.4%
18.9
20.4
Consumer Staples
-3.2%
21.0
21.8
Health Care
-3.6%
17.6
17.2
Industrials
-7.1%
18.3
20.8
Financials
-12.4%
11.9
14.6
Materials
-14.1%
15.8
16.6
Real Estate
-28.4%
16.5
24.2
Information Technology
-28.9%
20.1
28.1
Consumer Discretionary
-37.6%
21.3
33.2
Communication Services
-40.4%
14.3
20.8
S&P 500
-19.4%
16.8
21.4
Source: FactSet
Maybe you aren’t surprised to see that the energy sector was the only one to increase during 2022. But it might surprise you to see that despite the sector’s weighted price increase of 59%, its forward price-to-earnings ratio declined and remains very low relative to all other sectors.
It might also surprise you that West Texas Intermediate crude oil CL.1, +2.69%
gave up most of its gains from earlier in the year:
FactSet
The reason investors are still confident in energy stocks is that oil producers have remained cautious when it comes to capital spending. They don’t want to increase supply enough to cause prices to crash, as they did in the run-up to the summer of 2014, after which prices fell steadily through early 2016, causing bankruptcies and consolidation in the industry.
Now the oil companies are focusing on maintaining supply, raising dividends and buying back shares, as Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s OXY, +1.14%
chief executive explained in a recent interview with Matt Peterson. Click here for more about Occidental and the long-term supply/demand outlook for oil.
Best-performing S&P 500 stocks of 2022
Here are the 20 stocks in the benchmark index that rose most during 2022, excluding dividends. Proving that there are always exceptions, not all of them are in the energy sector.
Harris Kupperman, the president of Praetorian Capital, made a couple of interesting calls heading into 2022. He predicted that stocks of the giant tech-oriented companies that led the bull market would be sold off, and that oil prices would continue to rise through the end of 2022.
The first prediction came true, while the second one for oil prices fizzled. After rising to $130 in March, oil prices have fallen back to where they started the year. Then again, that second prediction still could have made you a lot of money because the share prices of oil companies kept rising anyway.
That leads to a new prediction for 2023 and a related stock screen below.
Here’s a chart showing the movement of front-month contract prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil CL.1, -0.62%
since the end of 2021:
FactSet
Even though Kupperman didn’t get his oil price call right, the energy sector of the S&P 500 SPX, -1.20%
was up 60% for 2022 through Dec. 27, excluding dividends. That is the only one of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to show a gain in 2022. And the energy sector is also cheapest relative to earnings expectations, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8, compared with 16.7 for the full S&P 500.
WTI pulled back from its momentary peak at $130.50 in early March, but that didn’t reverse the long-term trend of low capital spending by oil and natural gas producers, which has given investors confidence that supplies will remain tight.
Vicki Hollub, the CEO of Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY, -3.50%
— the best-performing S&P 500 stock of 2022 — said during a recent interview that there was “no pressure to increase production right now,” citing a $40 per barrel break-even point for oil prices.
At the end of November, these 20 oil companies stood out as reasonable plays for 2023 based on expectations for free-cash-flow generation and dividend payments.
For this next screen, we are only looking at ratings and consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet.
There are 23 energy stocks in the S&P 500, and you can invest in that group easily by purchasing shares of the Energy Select SPDR ETF XLE, -2.24%.
We can expand the list of large-cap names by looking at the components of the iShares Global Energy ETF IXC, -1.91%,
which holds all the energy stocks in the S&P 500 plus large players based outside the U.S.
Prices on the tables in this article are in local currencies.
IXC holds 51 stocks. To expand the list for a stock screen, we added the energy stocks in the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index MID, -1.24%
and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index SML, -1.89%
to bring the list up to 91 companies, which we then pared to 83 covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.
Here are the 20 companies in the list with at least 75% “buy” or equivalent ratings that have the most upside potential over the next 12 months, based on consensus price targets:
Investors love dividend stocks but there are different ways to look at them, including various “quality” approaches. Today we are focusing on high yields.
A high dividend yield can be a warning that investors have lost confidence in a company’s ability to maintain its dividend payout. But there are always exceptions, some of which can be brought about by market events — some investors remain skeptical of energy stocks, for example, after so much pain before this year’s outstanding performance for the sector.
Below is a screen of stocks that have high dividend yields and are favored by analysts. The screen has no financial quality filters.
For investors who are interested in dividend stocks but wish to focus on quality and total returns, this recent look at the S&P Dividend Aristocrats (companies that have raised dividends consistently for many years) might be of interest. For those looking for income but also worried about dividend cuts, here is a list of stocks with dividend yields of at least 5% whose payouts are expected to be well-covered by free cash flow in 2023.
Removing the filters for a high-yield dividend-stock screen
For a broad screen of stocks with high dividend yields that are favored by analysts, we began with the S&P Composite 1500 Index SP1500, +1.42%,
which is made up of the S&P 500 SPX, +1.42%,
the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index MID, +1.48%,
and the S&P 600 Small Cap Index SML, +1.49%.
The S&P indexes exclude energy partnerships, so we added the 15 stocks held by the Alerian MLP ETF AMLP, +1.81%
to the list. Energy partnerships tend to have high distribution yields, in part because they pass most earnings through to investors. But they also can make tax preparation more complicated. They can also be volatile as oil CL00, +2.96%
CL00 and natural-gas NG00, +1.58%
prices swing.
The S&P indexes also exclude business development companies, or BDCs, so we expanded our initial screen to include the 24 stocks held by the VanEck BDC income ETF BIZD, +0.76%.
BDCs are specialized leveraged lenders that make loans with high interest rates, mainly to middle-market companies. They often take equity stakes in the companies they lend to, for a venture-capital-type of investment style. The BDC space features several stocks with very high dividend yields, but is also known for volatility.
You have been warned — this particular stock screen focuses only on high yields and favorable ratings among analysts working for brokerage firms. There is no look back at dividend cuts and no cash-flow analysis as featured in other dividend-stock articles. If you see anything of interest resulting from the screen, you need to do your own research to consider whether or not a long-term commitment to one or more of these companies is worth the risk as you seek high income.
The screen
Starting with the S&P Composite 1500 and the components of AMLP and BIZD, there are 68 stocks with dividend yields of at least 8%, according to data provided by FactSet.
Among the 68 companies, 55 made the first screen, because they are covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.
Among the 55 companies, 11 have “buy” or equivalent ratings among at least 70% of analysts.
Here they are, ranked by upside potential implied by analysts’ consensus price targets:
A major overhaul of the bloc’s flagship carbon market and a brand new fund to protect vulnerable people from rising CO2 costs were agreed on by EU negotiators in the early hours of Sunday as part of a “jumbo” trilogue that started on Friday morning.
“After 30 hours of (net!) negotiation time we have an agreement about a new ETS and the creation of a social climate fund (SCF),” tweeted Esther de Lange, vice chair of the European People’s Party and a key climate lawmaker.
Touted as the cornerstone of Europe’s climate efforts, reforming the Emissions Trading System (ETS) is key to achieving the goal of slashing 55 percent of CO2 emissions by 2030 from 1990 levels.
“We just found an agreement on the biggest climate law ever negotiated in Europe,” said German MEP Peter Liese, who steered the negotiations on the bill.
As part of the hard-fought compromise, EU brokers stipulated that power generators and heavy polluters covered by the ETS will have to curb their pollution by 62 percent by the end of the decade, 1 percent more than what the European Commission had initially proposed.
Waste will be covered by the scheme from 2028, with potential derogations until 2030.
The deal also mandates that all the revenues generated by the carbon market “shall” be spent on climate action.
“That’s one of the biggest wins of the Parliament,” Liese told a briefing held shortly after the end of the talks.
Free CO2 certificates, given to industry to remain competitive against rivals from outside the bloc, will be phased out entirely by 2034 as a planned Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is due to enter into force from 2026 at the end of a three-year transition period. The Commission and the Council sought an end-date of 2036, while the Parliament fought for a speedier phaseout by 2032.
The border tax covers cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electric energy production, hydrogen, iron and steel.
However, negotiators stopped short of introducing rebates to protect exports, arguing they would have proven incompatible with World Trade Organization rules. Instead, the EU’s 27 nations will be granted the right to ring-fence revenues to support companies at risk of being harmed by the phaseout of free permits.
The deal also calls for a parallel carbon market to cover fossil fuels used to power cars and heat buildings from 2027 — easily one of the most controversial elements due to worries that it could increase energy poverty and unleash political turmoil if not designed in a just way.
“Germany desperately wanted the second carbon market and the inclusion of other fuels. They got it and they should celebrate,” said German MEP Peter Liese | John Thys/AFP via Getty images
To reach a deal, Parliament dropped its call for a split between commercial users and private owners — something the Commission and Council had called unworkable.
But to make it more palatable, policymakers agreed the so-called ETS2 would come with an emergency brake to be triggered in the event carbon prices per ton exceed €90 — which would cause the start to be delayed by one year. The pact also foresees that prices will be capped at €45 at least until 2030.
To help low-income households swiftly shift to cleaner forms of transport and heating so that they won’t be unfairly hit by the measure, EU policymakers signed off on a Social Climate Fund worth €86.7 billion running from 2026 until 2032.
That’s much larger than the €59 billion fund supported by the Council; 25 percent will be raised through co-financing by EU governments while a so-called “all fuels approach” covering process emissions means more CO2 permits will be sold under the scheme.
Several negotiators said the talks were made particularly tough by Germany’s foot-dragging.
“Germany desperately wanted the second carbon market and the inclusion of other fuels. They got it and they should celebrate,” said Liese, adding that, “instead of celebrating, they created problems until the last minute.”
The agreement also confirmed that the ETS will be extended to the shipping sector.
Following a sharp and sustained rise in interest rates, U.S. stocks have taken a broad beating this year.
But 2023 may bring very different circumstances.
Below are lists of analysts’ favorite stocks among the benchmark S&P 500 SPX,
the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index MID
and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index SML
that are expected to rise the most over the next year. Those lists are followed by a summary of opinions of all 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA.
Stocks rallied on Dec. 13 when the November CPI report showed a much slower inflation pace than economists had expected. Investors were also anticipating the Federal Open Market Committee’s next monetary policy announcement on Dec. 14. The consensus among economists polled by FactSet is for the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate by 0.50% to a target range of 4.50% to 4.75%.
A 0.50% increase would be a slowdown from the four previous increases of 0.75%. The rate began 2022 in a range of zero to 0.25%, where it had sat since March 2020.
A pivot for the Fed Reserve and the possibility that the federal funds rate will reach its “terminal” rate (the highest for this cycle) in the near term could set the stage for a broad rally for stocks in 2023.
Wall Street’s large-cap favorites
Among the S&P 500, 92 stocks are rated “buy” or the equivalent by at least 75% of analysts working for brokerage firms. That number itself is interesting — at the end of 2021, 93 of the S&P 500 had this distinction. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has declined 16% in 2022, with all sectors down except for energy, which has risen 53%, and the utilities sector, which his risen 1% (both excluding dividends).
Here are the 20 stocks in the S&P 500 with at least 75% “buy” or equivalent ratings that analysts expect to rise the most over the next year, based on consensus price targets:
Most of the companies on the S&P 500 list expected to soar in 2023 have seen large declines in 2022. But the company at the top of the list, EQT Corp. EQT,
is an exception. The stock has risen 69% in 2022 and is expected to add another 62% over the next 12 months. Analysts expect the company’s earnings per share to double during 2023 (in part from its expected acquisition of THQ), after nearly a four-fold EPS increase in 2022.
Shares of Amazon.com Inc. AMZN
are expected to soar 50% over the next year, following a decline of 46% so far in 2022. If the shares were to rise 50% from here to the price target of $136.02, they would still be 18% below their closing price of 166.72 at the end of 2021.
You can see the earnings estimates and more for any stock in this article by clicking on its ticker.
Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.
Mid-cap stocks expected to rise the most
The lists of favored stocks are limited to those covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.
Among components of the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index, there are 84 stocks with at least 75% “buy” ratings. Here at the 20 expected to rise the most over the next year:
Among companies in the S&P Small Cap 600 Index, 91 are rated “buy” or the equivalent by at least 75% of analysts. Here are the 20 with the highest 12-month upside potential indicated by consensus price targets:
European Union countries have agreed to put a cap on Russian oil prices of $60 per barrel, bringing an end to days of arguments over how hard to hit Vladimir Putin’s fossil fuel revenues.
According to EU diplomats, a deal was struck on Friday after Poland, which had been holding out for a harsher cap, came on board.
Under the agreement, countries will ban their insurance and shipping firms from facilitating Russian oil shipments to third countries if they are sold above the capped price.
The system will be reviewed every two months, one of the diplomats said. The aim is for the cap to be set at a level which is at least 5 percent below the market price for Russian crude during the review process, the diplomat added.
The EU plan was drawn up following a proposal from the G7 leading democracies to cap the price paid for Russian oil and is now expected to be implemented widely.
“The EU agreement on an oil price cap, coordinated with G7 and others, will reduce Russia’s revenues significantly,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. “It will help us stabilize global energy prices, benefitting emerging economies around the world.”
The key question now is how Russia responds.
The $60 price is higher than the level at which Russia currently sells its crude oil — which is trading at a discount to benchmark prices. That gives Putin room to dismiss the West’s move as meaningless. He has threatened to cut production, which could drive up global oil prices, and to not supply countries that sign up to the cap.
EU sanctions coming into force from Monday will ban seaborne imports of Russian oil. The sanctions package also contained a ban on shipping insurance for tankers transporting Russian oil around the world but the price cap would override this, lessening the disruption to markets.
There had been fears that the EU sanctions would trigger a surge in oil prices if shipping insurance had been unavailable. As talks dragged on among EU countries in Brussels, the U.S., which first proposed the cap, intervened in an attempt to break the deadlock. Poland also secured a commitment from Brussels to begin work on a new package of sanctions against Moscow.
Poland, Estonia and Lithuania had been leading demands for a harsher cap to cause maximum damage to Putin’s war chest.
“I welcome the EU’s political agreement on setting a price cap on Russian oil,” Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said on Twitter. “Crippling Russia’s energy revenues is at the core of stopping Russia’s war machine.”
She added that Estonia had been hoping for a cap in the range of $30 to $40 a barrel, which “would substantially hurt Russia.”
“However, this is the best compromise we could get today,” she said. “We will have the first review of the price already in mid-January.”
America Hernandez and Barbara Moens contributed reporting
Income-seeking investors are looking at an opportunity to scoop up shares of real estate investment trusts. Stocks in that asset class have become more attractive as prices have fallen and cash flow is improving.
Below is a broad screen of REITs that have high dividend yields and are also expected to generate enough excess cash in 2023 to enable increases in dividend payouts.
REIT prices may turn a corner in 2023
REITs distribute most of their income to shareholders to maintain their tax-advantaged status. But the group is cyclical, with pressure on share prices when interest rates rise, as they have this year at an unprecedented scale. A slowing growth rate for the group may have also placed a drag on the stocks.
And now, with talk that the Federal Reserve may begin to temper its cycle of interest-rate increases, we may be nearing the time when REIT prices rise in anticipation of an eventual decline in interest rates. The market always looks ahead, which means long-term investors who have been waiting on the sidelines to buy higher-yielding income-oriented investments may have to make a move soon.
During an interview on Nov 28, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, discussed the central bank’s cycle of interest-rate increases meant to reduce inflation.
When asked about the potential timing of the Fed’s “terminal rate” (the peak federal funds rate for this cycle), Bullard said: “Generally speaking, I have advocated that sooner is better, that you do want to get to the right level of the policy rate for the current data and the current situation.”
Fed’s Bullard says in MarketWatch interview that markets are underpricing the chance of still-higher rates
In August we published this guide to investing in REITs for income. Since the data for that article was pulled on Aug. 24, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.29%
has declined 4% (despite a 10% rally from its 2022 closing low on Oct. 12), but the benchmark index’s real estate sector has declined 13%.
REITs can be placed broadly into two categories. Mortgage REITs lend money to commercial or residential borrowers and/or invest in mortgage-backed securities, while equity REITs own property and lease it out.
The pressure on share prices can be greater for mortgage REITs, because the mortgage-lending business slows as interest rates rise. In this article we are focusing on equity REITs.
Industry numbers
The National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (Nareit) reported that third-quarter funds from operations (FFO) for U.S.-listed equity REITs were up 14% from a year earlier. To put that number in context, the year-over-year growth rate of quarterly FFO has been slowing — it was 35% a year ago. And the third-quarter FFO increase compares to a 23% increase in earnings per share for the S&P 500 from a year earlier, according to FactSet.
The NAREIT report breaks out numbers for 12 categories of equity REITs, and there is great variance in the growth numbers, as you can see here.
FFO is a non-GAAP measure that is commonly used to gauge REITs’ capacity for paying dividends. It adds amortization and depreciation (noncash items) back to earnings, while excluding gains on the sale of property. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) goes further, netting out expected capital expenditures to maintain the quality of property investments.
The slowing FFO growth numbers point to the importance of looking at REITs individually, to see if expected cash flow is sufficient to cover dividend payments.
Screen of high-yielding equity REITs
For 2022 through Nov. 28, the S&P 500 has declined 17%, while the real estate sector has fallen 27%, excluding dividends.
Over the very long term, through interest-rate cycles and the liquidity-driven bull market that ended this year, equity REITs have fared well, with an average annual return of 9.3% for 20 years, compared to an average return of 9.6% for the S&P 500, both with dividends reinvested, according to FactSet.
This performance might surprise some investors, when considering the REITs’ income focus and the S&P 500’s heavy weighting for rapidly growing technology companies.
For a broad screen of equity REITs, we began with the Russell 3000 Index RUA, -0.04%,
which represents 98% of U.S. companies by market capitalization.
We then narrowed the list to 119 equity REITs that are followed by at least five analysts covered by FactSet for which AFFO estimates are available.
If we divide the expected 2023 AFFO by the current share price, we have an estimated AFFO yield, which can be compared with the current dividend yield to see if there is expected “headroom” for dividend increases.
For example, if we look at Vornado Realty Trust VNO, +1.03%,
the current dividend yield is 8.56%. Based on the consensus 2023 AFFO estimate among analysts polled by FactSet, the expected AFFO yield is only 7.25%. This doesn’t mean that Vornado will cut its dividend and it doesn’t even mean the company won’t raise its payout next year. But it might make it less likely to do so.
Among the 119 equity REITs, 104 have expected 2023 AFFO headroom of at least 1.00%.
Here are the 20 equity REITs from our screen with the highest current dividend yields that have at least 1% expected AFFO headroom:
Click on the tickers for more about each company. You should read Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.
The list includes each REIT’s main property investment type. However, many REITs are highly diversified. The simplified categories on the table may not cover all of their investment properties.
Knowing what a REIT invests in is part of the research you should do on your own before buying any individual stock. For arbitrary examples, some investors may wish to steer clear of exposure to certain areas of retail or hotels, or they may favor health-care properties.
Largest REITs
Several of the REITs that passed the screen have relatively small market capitalizations. You might be curious to see how the most widely held REITs fared in the screen. So here’s another list of the 20 largest U.S. REITs among the 119 that passed the first cut, sorted by market cap as of Nov. 28:
For the first time ever, rich nations, including a top-polluting U.S., will pay for the climate-change damage inflicted upon poorer nations.
These smaller economies are often the source of the fossil fuels CL00, +0.19%,
minerals PICK, -0.20%
and other raw materials behind the developed world’s modern conveniences and technologicial advancement, including many practices responsible for the Earth-warming emisisons. And yet the developing world shoulders the worst of the droughts, deadly heat, ruined crops and eroding coastlines that take lives and eat into economic growth.
The deal, called “loss and damage” in summit shorthand, was struck as the U.N.’s Conference of Parties, or COP27, gaveled to a close near dawn Sunday in Egypt. Official talks ended Friday, but negotiations extended into the weekend.
It was a big win for poorer nations which have long sought money — sometimes viewed as reparations — because they are often the victims of climate-worsened floods, famines and storms despite contributing little directly to the pollution that heats up the globe. It took last-minute, pre-summit negotiations to even get the topic on the official agenda.
“Three long decades and we have finally delivered climate justice,” said Seve Paeniu, the finance minister of island nation Tuvalu, according to the Associated Press. “We have finally responded to the call of hundreds of millions of people across the world to help them address loss and damage.”
“ ‘Three long decades and we have finally delivered climate justice.’ ”
— Seve Paeniu, finance minister for Tuvalu
Pakistan’s environment minister, Sherry Rehman, said the establishment of the fund “is not about dispensing charity.” Pakistan, hit by devastating drought and more, dominated climate-change headlines this year.
“It is clearly a down payment on the longer investment in our joint futures,” she said, speaking for a coalition of the world’s poorest nations.
How does COP27 ‘loss and damage’ work? And where’s China?
According to the agreement, the fund would initially draw on contributions from developed countries and other private and public sources such as international financial institutions, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
While major emerging economies such as China wouldn’t automatically have to contribute, that option remains on the table. This is a key demand by the European Union and the U.S., who argue that China and other large polluters currently classified as “developing” countries have the financial clout and responsibility to pay their way.
The fund would be largely aimed at the most vulnerable nations, though there would be room for middle-income countries that are severely battered by climate disasters to get aid.
Getting serious about methane
Attention on methane, a more-potent but shorter-lasting greenhouse gas than carbon, was considered a major win at the summit. Some 150 countries have now signed on to the voluntary Global Methane Pledge, an official effort to cap the release of the GHG whose reduction presents perhaps the easiest way to reduce the global warming.
With the pledge, countries representing 45% of global methane emissions have vowed to reduce their emissions by 30% by 2030. If methane-reduction pledges are met, the result would be equivalent to eliminating the GHG emissions from all of the world’s cars, trucks, buses and all two- and three-wheeled vehicles, according to the International Energy Agency.
COP27 talks wrapped without concrete progress on the contentious issue of shifting an overall 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature limit from a voluntary marker to an established requirement of nations. Most voluntary pacts among nations and private entities, including a vow by Amazon.com AMZN, -0.75%,
Ford Motor F, +0.58%,
Apple AAPL, +0.38%
and others signing on to a “First Movers” pledge, loosly use the 1.5-degree limit set in 2015 when talks took place in Paris.
Private banks, insurers and institutional investors representing $130 trillion said they would align their investments with the goal of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, toward a pledge to net-zero emissions economy-wide by 2050. Advocacy groups cheer the pledge and its expanding roster but are also keeping up pressure on the signatories to speed up progress toward this goal and to stop undermining the pledge with fossil-fuel investment.
The Egypt pact was also void of firmer language on emissions cutting and the desire by some officials to target all fossil fuels NG00, +1.16%
for a phase-down.
Natural gas, which is relatively cheaper to produce than other fossil fuels, has been the major alternative to more-polluting coal in electricity generation. Still, it has its own emissions risk.
In the U.S., for example, electricity is the most common energy source used for cooking — electricity often powered by gas. Still, about 38% of U.S. households use natural gas directly for cooking, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Natural gas providers also own an established pipeline infrastructure that may serve alternative energy, and is pushed by the industry as a viable alternative alongside solar, wind ICLN, -0.15%
and other means. The industry also promotes its efforts to cap methane leaks.
“ ‘It is more than frustrating to see overdue steps on mitigation and the phase-out of fossil energies being stonewalled by a number of large emitters and oil producers.’”
— Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock
With fossil fuels in their sight, the European Union and other nations fought back at what they considered backsliding in the Egyptian presidency’s overarching cover agreement and threatened to scuttle the rest of the process, while advancing their own draft. The package was revised again, removing most of the elements Europeans had objected to but adding none of the heightened ambition they were hoping for, the AP said.
Egypt has played a unique role as host, representative of Africa, which sits at the front lines of those hurt by climate change and yet, remaining loyal to its own fossil-fuel ambitions and those of OPEC nations.
Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock voiced frustration.
“It is more than frustrating to see overdue steps on mitigation and the phase-out of fossil energies being stonewalled by a number of large emitters and oil producers XOM, -0.87%
The agreement includes a veiled reference to the benefits of natural gas as low- emission energy, despite many nations calling for a phase down of natural gas, which does contribute to climate change.
Fossil-fuel industry’s presence
At least 636 representatives of the fossil fuel industry registered to attend the summit, a 25% increase over the industry’s presence last year, according to an analysis released by three advocacy groups.
More fossil fuel lobbyists are on the roster than any single national delegation, besides the UAE who has registered 1,070 delegates compared to 176 last year, according to a report from Corporate Accountability, Corporate Europe Observatory (CEO) and Global Witness (GW).
Frances Colón, senior director for International Climate Policy at the Center for American Progress, found plenty of fault with this round of talks.
“The final text reflects the outsized and corrupting presence of fossil fuel and big agricultural lobbyists at COP27, compounded by a lack of ambition from key, high-emitting countries,” she said, in a statement. “The agreement makes only a passing reference to the 1.5-degree Celsius warming goal and does not include any new language on phasing down or phasing out all fossil fuels RB00, -0.09%
— the only way to reach emissions reduction goals and secure a livable future.”
Colón also worried that the official statement did not adequately advance efforts. World leaders failed to reference the twin, interlocking crises of nature loss and climate change, and declined to link COP27 to next month’s U.N. biodiversity summit in Montreal.
“ ‘The agreement makes only a passing reference to the 1.5-degree Celsius warming goal and does not include any new language on phasing down or phasing out all fossil fuels — the only way to reach emissions reduction goals and secure a livable future.’”
— Frances Colón of the Center for American Progress
While the new agreement doesn’t ratchet up calls for reducing emissions, it does retain language to keep alive the voluntary global goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). The Egyptian presidency kept offering proposals that harkened back to 2015 Paris language which also mentioned a looser goal of 2 degrees.
This year’s pact also neglected to toughen the main sticking point from the previous COP, in Glasgow last year. At that time, China and India united to dig in unless coal language was softened. Nations this year did not expand on last year’s call to phase down global use of “unabated coal” even though India and other countries pushed to include oil and natural gas in language from Glasgow.
“We joined with many parties to propose a number of measures that would have contributed to this emissions peaking before 2025, as the science tells us is necessary. Not in this text,” the United Kingdom’s Alok Sharma said.
Climate campaigners are concerned that pushing for strong action to end fossil fuel use will be even harder at next year’s meeting, which will be hosted in Dubai, located in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates.
The EU is under immense pressure to cap the price of imported natural gas to contain energy costs — but many of the companies making a fortune selling cheap U.S. gas to the Continent at eye-watering markups are European.
The liquefied natural gas (LNG) loaded on to tankers at U.S. ports costs nearly four times more on the other side of the Atlantic, largely due to the market disruption caused by a near-total loss of Russian deliveries following the invasion of Ukraine.
The European Commission has come under fierce pressure to sketch out a gas price cap plan, but some countries, led by Germany, worry such a measure could prompt shippers to send gas cargoes elsewhere. The Commission is also reluctant, and its proposal issued Tuesday sets such demanding requirements that they weren’t met even during this summer’s price emergency.
But a large part of the trade is in European hands, according to America’s biggest LNG exporter.
“Ninety percent of everything we produce is sold to third parties, and most of our customers are utilities — the Enels, the Endesas, the Naturgys, the Centricas and the Engies of the world,” said Corey Grindal, executive vice president for worldwide trading at Cheniere Energy, rattling off the names of big-name European energy providers.
Cheniere, which this year saw 70 percent of its exported LNG sail to Europe, sells its gas on a fix-priced scheme based on the American benchmark price, dubbed Henry Hub, which is currently at about $6 per million British thermal units.
On average, the price across all Cheniere contracts is 115 percent of Henry Hub plus $3, Grindal said. That works out to about €33 per megawatt-hour. For comparison, the current EU benchmark rate, dubbed TTF, is €119 per MWh.
It’s a big markup for whoever is reselling those LNG cargoes into Europe’s wholesale market, profiting from fears that there may not be enough gas to last the winter.
Despite fears that any EU cap will send gas to higher bidders in Asia and result in bloc-wide shortages, Grindal gave a resounding “no” when asked if a cap would have any impact on how Cheniere does business with European companies.
“Our balance sheet is underpinned by those long-term contracts,” he added.
Translation: If buyers choose to trade their precious cargoes away for higher profits beyond Europe once they receive them, that’s their decision.
Blame game
“The United States is a producer of cheap gas that they are selling us at a high price … I don’t think that’s friendly,” said French President Emmanuel Macron | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
The difference between U.S. and EU gas prices hasn’t gone unnoticed by European politicians — but most of the finger-pointing has been at American producers rather than the resellers closer to home.
“In today’s geopolitical context, among countries that support Ukraine there are two categories being created in the gas market: those who are paying dearly and those who are selling at very high prices,” French President Emmanuel Macron told a group of industrial players last week. “The United States is a producer of cheap gas that they are selling us at a high price … I don’t think that’s friendly.”
Macron’s dig conveniently ignored that the largest European holder of long-term U.S. gas contracts is none other than France’s own TotalEnergies.
At the company’s latest earnings call last month, TotalEnergies CFO Jean-Pierre Sbraire trumpeted the fact that the firm’s access to more than 10 million tons of U.S. LNG annually “is a huge advantage for our traders, who can arbitrage between the U.S. and Europe.”
“And now, given the price of LNG, each cargo represents something like $80 million, even $100 million. So, when we are able reroute or to arbitrage between the different markets, of course, it’s a very efficient way to maximize the value coming from that business,” Sbaire added. “Cash flow generation of this order of magnitude marks the start of a new era for the company.”
Spain’s Naturgy — which has some 5 million tons of U.S. LNG a year from Cheniere under contract — has also earned nearly five times more trading gas so far this year compared with 2021 thanks to “the increased spread between [Henry Hub] and TTF,” it wrote in its half-year report.
Long-term contracts with the U.S. weren’t always so profitable. In fact, from 2016 to at least 2018, buyers were mostly losing money on the fixed deals, leading some to sell them off.
In 2019 Spain’s Iberdrola, for example, pawned off its 20-year Cheniere contract to Asian trader Pavilion Energy, which is now benefiting from selling into a high-priced global market.
In the U.K, Centrica tried — and failed — to sell off its LNG portfolio in 2020 when government-ordered lockdowns drove real-time prices through the floor. That included a 20-year fixed Cheniere contract set to run through 2038.
Now that real-time prices have shot back up, Centrica — part of Shell-owned British Gas — is reaping the rewards and eagerly snapping up more long-term contracts, most recently a 15-year deal with U.S. LNG exporter Delfin beginning in 2026.
“This is a really important profit stream for us,” Centrica CFO Chris O’Shea told investors on a Friday trading update call.
Unlike some producers — for example in the Middle East — which restrict the final destination of the LNG to consumers in Asia and prevent it being sold onward at a higher price, American gas changes ownership the minute it’s loaded onto a ship and comes with no strings attached.
That leaves buyers free to redirect the precious supply wherever it’s most profitable — sometimes at the expense of their downstream clients, if it’s cheaper to break those pre-existing domestic delivery commitments.
“We can only control what we can control,” said Cheniere’s Grindal. “U.S. LNG is destination-free.”
But as far as getting it on the ship at previously agreed prices, “our focus is being that reliable supplier, being committed to the obligations that we’ve made to our customers, and we’re committed to doing everything that we can to help the EU in this situation.”
More than 1 million barrels a day of Russian oil exports are set to be upended by Western sanctions expected to come into force within weeks, shipments Moscow will struggle to redirect elsewhere which threatens to further tighten global energy markets, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.
Russian crude oil exports, including to the European Union, were largely unchanged last month, despite the prospect of an imminent EU ban on Russian crude oil imports and a separate plan to cap prices for Russian crude oil sales, the Paris-based agency said in a monthly report.
Russian exports to the EU were 1.5 million barrels a day in October, of which 1.1 million barrels a day will be halted when the bloc’s ban comes into effect on December 5, the IEA said.
It was unclear how much of those supplies Russia would be able to redirect to customers elsewhere in the world, the IEA said. India, China and Turkey have snapped up discounted Russian crude shipments, but buying from those nations has stabilized in recent months, the IEA said. Meanwhile, the volume would be too large for the remaining nations to absorb, the agency said.
The warning comes as the IEA predicted additional demand this year and next would come from China as the nation slowly eases its Covid-19 lockdown measures–though global demand growth will be sluggish as economies are expected to struggle.
The agency upped its 2022 global oil demand forecasts by 170,000 barrels a day to 99.8 million barrels a day. For 2023, the IEA raised its oil demand forecasts by 130,000 barrels a day to 101.4 million barrels a day.
Russia’s declining oil output will drag on global supplies which will grow at an anemic rate next year, failing to keep pace with growing oil demand. The IEA said global oil supplies would rise to 100.7 million barrels a day in 2023, 100,000 barrels a day more than it was forecasting last month, but still 700,000 barrels a day short of the world’s expected appetite for oil CL.1, -0.85%
SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt — Climate change talks have long been stymied over demands for transfers of billions of dollars — on Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron backed a new push for the conversation to be measured in trillions.
Speaking at the COP27 climate summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, Macron gave his support to elements of a plan outlined by Barbados’ Prime Minister Mia Mottley that seeks to overhaul the way climate finance flows to the countries that most need it.
He called for a “huge shock of concessional financing,” suspension of debt for disaster-struck countries and putting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on notice.
It was a speech that signaled a shift in tone that developing countries have been long been pushing for.
During the first day of official speeches, leader after leader from wealthy countries highlighted the need to demonstrate “solidarity” with developing countries after a year in which calamitous disasters and a bubbling debt crisis helped reshape the often contentious conversation about climate finance.
“It’s the right thing to do,” said U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
Money is a central focus of this year’s climate talks given the widening gap between what has been pledged and what is needed. It extends from everything from clean energy transitions to hardening countries’ defenses against climate impacts to potential payments for irreparable climate damages.
In September, Barbados issued the world’s first pandemic and natural disaster bond. “The time has come for the introduction of natural disaster-pandemic clauses in our debt instruments,” Mottley said.
“God forbid, if we are hit tomorrow, we unlock 18 percent of GDP over the next two years, because what we do is effectively put a pause on all of our debt,” she said.
Macron called for the rules of the IMF, the World Bank and other major lenders to be changed to makeclauses that halt debt repayments in the event of a disaster far more common.
“What you’re asking of us in terms of debt reimbursement and guarantees, when we are affected by a climate shock, when we are a victim of a climate accident, to some degree, there must be a suspension of those conditions,” said the French president.
Broken promises
While the need for finance to spur the transition to clean energy across the world and guard against the ravages of climate change is already stretching into trillions, the U.N. climate system remains stuck on a broken decade-old promise from rich countries. They pledged to deliver $100 billion a year in climate finance by 2020, but that’s not likely to happen until next year.
As climate impacts have grown more extreme and prolific, appeals for new and more innovative forms of finance have escalated. Ballooning debt in the wake of the pandemic has heightened those calls, with dozens of vulnerable countries threatening a debt strike in the lead-up to COP27.
Mottley has been a champion of elevating the debt crisis facing nations like her own and highlighting how it adds to climate inequities. The plan she outlined in September hinges on debt relief, increased finance, and new mechanisms for post-disaster recovery, like bonds.
The Barbados leader’s call to arms and Macron’s heavyweight backing brought a new reality and scale to the financial discussion.
Mottley has pushed for the IMF’s special drawing rights to be put toward helping climate-vulnerable nations recover and respond to climate impacts. That could be used to help unlock far more money from the private sector — $500 billion from the IMF could result in $5 trillion in investments, she said Monday.
The challenge is getting shareholders in those financial institutions to agree to reforms.
Officials in the U.S., Germany and other major economies have pushed for an overhaul of the way multilateral development banks lend to allow them to extend more climate finance. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has called on the World Bank to draft a roadmap by the end of the year that could then be used to drive reform efforts at other development banks.
On Monday, Macron went further, saying that by next spring, global financial institutions would need to devise ways to “come up with concrete solutions to activate these innovative financing solutions and to help us to provide access to new liquidities.”
He paid tribute to Mottley’s “force of character” and said the two leaders — one who commands an economy 600 times larger than the other — had agreed to form a group of “wise minds” to develop suggestions for the overhaul of the international financial system.
But one Mottley suggestion that Macron swerved was her call for fossil fuel companies to pay a levy on their profits into a fund for disaster-hit countries.
“How do companies make $200 billion in profits in the last three months and not expect to contribute at least 10 cents on every dollar of profit to a loss and damage fund?” she asked.
How good is a company’s chief executive officer at investing your money most efficiently? This is an important question for long-term investors. It may underline the difference between a steady long-term performer and a flash in the pan.
And Apple Inc. AAPL, -4.24%
now makes up 7% of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, -1.03%,
the first and largest exchange-traded fund (with $360 billion in assets), which tracks the benchmark S&P 500 SPX, -1.06%.
That’s close to an all-time record, and the iPhone maker has a whopping 14.1% position in the Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ, -1.95%,
which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index NDX, -1.98%.
Looking at the full Nasdaq Index COMP, -1.73%,
which has 3,747 stocks, Apple takes a 13.5% position.
Apple now makes up 7.3% of the S&P 500 by market capitalization, close to the 8% record it set late in September.
FactSet
This is very much an Apple stock market, with the company topping the broad indexes that are weighted by market capitalization. You are likely to be invested in the company indirectly. You also might be feeling Apple’s impact in other ways. Apple’s App Store ecosystem drives more than $600 billion in annual revenue for developers.
Tim Cook’s tenure as Apple’s CEO has been nothing short of breathtaking when measured by the company’s financial performance. Apple is not one of the fastest-growing companies when measured by sales or earnings — it is too big for that. But its excellent stock performance has reflected Cook’s ability to deploy invested capital with improving efficiency. Cook has also been a market trendsetter in other important ways. He has Apple repurchasing $90 billion of its shares annually, setting the pace for stock buybacks in the market. Cook’s steady hand has also helped Apple withstand the market’s tech wreck and remain a stable pillar for the teetering Nasdaq Composite index generally. For all these reasons, Cook has earned a spot on the MarketWatch 50 list of the most influential people in markets.
Apple keeps improving by this important measure
Investors in the stock market are looking for growth over the long term. The best measure of that is whether or not a company’s share price goes up or down. But Cook isn’t just managing Apple’s stock. Digging a bit deeper into the company’s actual operating performance can provide some insight into what a good job Cook has done.
What should a corporate manager focus on? The stock price? How about the most efficient and most profitable way to provide goods and services? There are different ways to do this, and Apple has focused on quality, reliability and excellent service to build customer loyalty.
Apple’s commitment can be experienced by anyone who calls the company for customer service. It is easy to get through to a well-trained representative who will solve your problem. How many companies can say that at a time when it seems many companies cannot even handle answering the phone?
Apple’s returns on invested capital have increased markedly over the past six years.
FactSet
A company’s return on invested capital (ROIC) is its profit divided by the sum of the carrying value of its common stock, preferred stock, long-term debt and capitalized lease obligations. ROIC indicates how well a company has made use of the money it has raised to run its business. It is an annualized figure, but available quarterly, as used in the chart above.
The carrying value of a company’s stock may be a lot lower than its current market capitalization. The company may have issued most of its shares long ago at a much lower share price than the current one. If a company has issued shares recently or at relatively high prices, its ROIC will be lower.
A company with a high ROIC is likely either to have a relatively low level of long-term debt or to have made efficient use of the borrowed money.
Among companies in the S&P 500 that have been around for at least 10 years, Apple placed within the top 20 for average ROIC for the previous 40 reported fiscal quarters as of Sept. 1.
As you can see on the chart, Apple’s ROIC has improved dramatically over the past five years, even as the wide adoption of the company’s products and services has led to an overall slowdown in sales growth.
A quick comparison with other giants in the benchmark index
It might be interesting to see how Apple stacks up among other large companies, in part because some businesses are more capital-intensive than others. For example, over the past four quarters, Apple’s ROIC has averaged 52.9%, while the average for the S&P 500 has been a weighted 12.1%, by FactSet’s estimate.
Here are the 10 companies in the S&P 500 reporting the highest annual sales for their most recent full fiscal years, with a comparison of average ROIC over the past 40 reported quarters:
Among the largest 10 companies in the S&P 500 by annual sales, Apple takes the top ranking for average ROIC over the past 10 years, while ranking second for total return behind UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, +0.03%
and ahead of Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, -3.06%.
UnitedHealth has been able to remain at the forefront of managed care during the period of transition for healthcare in the U.S., in the wake of President Barack Obama’s signing of the Affordable Care Act into law in 2010.
Here’s a chart showing 10-year total returns for Apple, UnitedHealth Group, Amazon and the S&P 500:
FactSet
Apple is only slightly ahead of Amazon’s 10-year total return. But what is so striking about this chart is the volatility. Apple has had a smoother ride. During the bear market of 2022, Apple’s stock has declined 18%, while the S&P 500 has gone down 20%, the Nasdaq has fallen 32% (all with dividends reinvested) and Amazon has dropped 45%.
The broad indexes would have fared even worse so far this year without Apple.
Vicki Hollub’s Occidental Petroleum controls the biggest piece of the most important area for oil production in the United States. Not so long ago, an oilman in a position like that—and it would’ve been a man, before Hollub came along—would have gone for broke, turning up production to its physical limits.
Not Hollub. Occidental produces on average the equivalent of about 1.15 million barrels of oil a day, and that’s more than enough to turn a profit. The company can make money as long as oil prices are above $40 a barrel. They’ve been above $80 for almost all of this year, as the war in Ukraine takes a toll on global markets and the Saudi-led oil cartel OPEC now slashes production.
“We don’t feel like we’re in a national crisis right now,” Hollub told MarketWatch in an interview. And that means Hollub can keep executing on her plans: making shareholders happy by paying down debt and buying back shares. “When you have such a low break-even, to me there’s no pressure to increase production right now, when we have these other two ways that we can increase shareholder value,” Hollub said.
That market-focused logic puts her at odds with President Biden, who is acting like there is a national energy crisis ongoingprecisely because of what oil CEOs like Hollub are doing. The size of oil companies’ profits is outrageous, Biden said Monday. They’re raking in cash not because of innovation or investment but as a windfall from the war in Ukraine, Biden said. “Rather than increasing their investments in America or giving American consumers a break, their excess profits are going back to their shareholders and to buying back their stock, so the executive pay is — are going to skyrocket,” Biden said. He has ordered releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to keep down gas prices and asked Congress to tax oil-company profits.
But Hollub is single-mindedly focused on seizing the moment to improve the company’s financial position. Occidental still has significant debt left over from a challenging acquisition Hollub spearheaded before the pandemic. In the second quarter alone, the company used its windfall to repay $4.8 billion in debt. If Biden called, she’d listen, but she hasn’t spoken to him one-on-one. Hollub said she’d spoken to the administration through Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm. (“She doesn’t know the industry very well right now, but it’s because she hasn’t been in her job very long,” Hollub said.) The White House and the Department of Energy did not return requests for comment.
Hollub says she’s just following the market. “If demand goes down, we reduce production, if it goes up, we increase.” Oil prices have fluctuated rapidly over the year, and with a recession widely anticipated in the near future, demand could drop, Hollub said. Biden’s releases of oil from the SPR, she added, may have reduced gasoline prices, but at a cost to national security. “The SPR should be reserved for emergency situations, and you never know when those might come,” Hollub said.
Hollub’s message may not be politically convenient, but it’s exactly what her shareholders want to hear. Occidental OXY, -2.29%
is America’s hottest stock and has returned 150% this year, making it the top-performing company in the S&P 500 SPX, -0.65%.
Investors who bought shares of Occidental in January and held them through today would have more than doubled their money, even as the broader market has crashed. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has gone on a buying spree this year, and now owns more than 20% of Occidental’s shares. How Hollub got here constitutes America’s greatest corporate saga in recent years, from her 2019 debt-fueled decision to buy bigger rival Anadarko Petroleum over the vocal objections of activist investor Carl Icahn, to the pandemic-induced collapse in oil prices that almost bankrupted Occidental, and Buffett’s extension, removal, and re-extension of support.
With Occidental now on solid financial footing, Hollub is continuing to leave a mark on the oil industry and the world, landing her on the MarketWatch 50 list of the most influential people in markets. Hollub’s tangles with the wise men of Wall Street have left her savvier about how to manage her business. Stung by previous boom-and-bust cycles, Hollub has helped lead America’s oil frackers away from being “swing producers” that could counter the war-driven increase in energy prices, as she paid down debt and returned cash to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks instead of plowing some of that money into shale oil fields. She is also pushing investment into Occidental’s massive new carbon-capture effort.
More than anything, Hollub is focused on guys like Bill Smead, founder of Smead Capital Management, who is a long-term investor in Occidental and a Hollub fan. “She’s somebody that we have a great deal of respect for and appreciate all the money she’s making us,” he said.
With that kind of backing, Hollub is planning to put Occidental in the driver’s seat of the massive national economic transition induced by climate change. She is positioning Occidental to be the company of the energy transition, one geared not to the free-for-all economy of the last century or some carbonless vision of the next, but the oil company for right now. She might even stop drilling new oil wells entirely.
“Now we feel like we control our own destiny,” Hollub said.
For the chief executive of a company that’s having a banner year on Wall Street while investors choke down generational losses, Hollub seems to constantly be on the alert for threats. Talking through the company’s prospects, she repeats a certain phrase: “I know that this will ultimately get me in trouble, but…”
Trouble? Hollub and Occidental have known their share.
The drama surrounding Occidental’s 2019 acquisition of Anadarko would make for a good boardroom thriller—or at least a lively business-school case study. Anadarko had big assets in the crucial Permian Basin region of Texas and New Mexico, where horizontal drilling in shale rock had reinvigorated an aging oil field into the nation’s biggest production zone.
Hollub and her team made an offer to buy Anadarko after months of research. She thought she had a deal locked, only to hear on the radio that Anadarko had announced plans to combine with Chevron. She nearly drove off the road, Texas Monthly recounts.
Hollub turned to Buffett for help. He agreed to what was effectively a $10 billion loan at 8% interest, in the form of preferred shares, along with warrants that allow Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett’s company, to buy more common stock. That got Hollub what she wanted, but many on Wall Street hated it. “The Buffett deal was like taking candy from a baby and amazingly she even thanked him publicly for it!” Icahn wrote in a letter to his fellow shareholders. Icahn had bought a slug of Occidental’s shares and, in the ensuing months, the billionaire investor led a shareholder campaign against Hollub, insisting that she needed stronger board oversight. Icahn allies were made Occidental directors.
In 2020, as COVID-19 flattened the global economy, deeply indebted Occidental was forced to cut its dividend for the first time in decades. Buffett sold his stock. At Icahn’s urging, the company issued 113 million warrants to its shareholders, allowing them to buy shares at $22, at a time when the stock was trading at $17. Gary Hu, one of the Icahn directors on Occidental’s board, pointed to those warrants as evidence of their success. “Our involvement in Occidental represented activism at its finest,” said Hu.
Hollub flatly disagrees. Icahn saw an opportunity to make an easy profit in derailing the Anadarko deal, Hollub said. “And what he expected is that we would lose and he would benefit from that. Since that didn’t happen, he managed to maneuver his way onto the board.” Icahn’s representatives on the board came to Hollub with a number of plans, including the warrants. She felt that one wouldn’t do any harm. “So that’s what we agreed to, but yeah, the other 10 or so weird things, we didn’t do.”
““She’s somebody that we have a great deal of respect for and appreciate all the money she’s making us.””
— Bill Smead, founder of Smead Capital Management
Former Occidental CEO Stephen Chazen returned to chair the board at Icahn’s insistence. Icahn and Occidental ultimately reached a settlement. His board members left, and the activist sold his common shares earlier this year. Chazen passed away in September. The experience embittered both sides, but there is one point of agreement: Hollub will do as she sees fit. “We were clearly wrong about the board’s ability to restrain Vicki’s ambitions,” Hu said.
Icahn made a $1.5 billion profit. At a MarketWatch event in September, Icahn said he still holds the warrants. But he hasn’t let go of the issues that motivated him to push into Occidental in the first place, though he insists he has no problem with Hollub personally. He likened her to a kid who got lucky gambling in Vegas. “The system allowed her to do it. And she’s just one small example of what is wrong with corporate governance.”
But as Icahn has himself shown, the system of corporate money in America is malleable. Its players can learn the rules of the game and adapt. Quarter after quarter since the dark days of the pandemic, Hollub turned up on corporate earnings calls pledging to keep cash flows strong, to invest in the highest-returning assets, and not to fall into the trap of overinvesting in debt-fueled or expensive production capacity, as so many failed shale producers have done in the past. She’s driven the company’s debt from nearly $40 billion following the Anadarko acquisition to less than $20 billion today. She increased the company’s dividend earlier this year. Along the way she transformed from market pariah to textbook CEO.
Hollub and other CEOs who run America’s biggest shale-oil producers have learned from the industry’s past mistakes. After proving a decade ago they could successfully extract shale oil, many U.S. oil producers were cheered on by growth and momentum stock investors as they borrowed billions to ramp up production, only to have those same investors abandon them after Saudi Arabia induced a plunge in oil prices. In the years that followed, U.S. shale-oil producers cultivated a new set of more value-oriented shareholders by promising they would share in profits through dividends and stock buybacks. Hollub and many of those other CEOs are not interested in chasing unrestrained growth again.
The world’s most famous value investor is now also on board. For Buffett, an earnings call Hollub led in February was the turning point. “I read every word, and said this is exactly what I would be doing. She’s running the company the right way,” Buffett told CNBC. Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, +0.15%
started buying Occidental stock soon after. In August, federal regulators gave Buffett’s company permission to buy up to half of the company. (Asked for comment, a representative of Berkshire Hathaway asked for questions by email but did not respond to them.)
The markets are rife with speculation that Buffett will go all the way and purchase the entire company, though neither Hollub nor Berkshire have said as much. Hollub said simply that Buffett is bullish on oil, so she expects him to invest for the long haul. A Buffett buyout wouldn’t necessarily be a win for the investors who’ve hung on as Occidental’s stock price has recovered. “I’d probably make more money if he doesn’t buy it,” said Smead.
Warren Buffett is back to betting on Hollub and bought 20% of Occidental’s stock this year.
Johannes Eisele/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Where Hollub might cause real trouble is in the fight to keep carbon dioxide out of the earth’s atmosphere. That’s not because she’s a climate-denier. Far from it. Like many of her fellow oil-and-gas CEOs in recent years, Hollub has come to see climate change not as a threat to the business, but as an opportunity to be managed.
“I know some people don’t want oil to be produced for very long, but it’s going to be,” Hollub said. For that to change, people have to start using less oil. “It’s not that the more supply we generate, then the more that people are gonna use. It’s all driven by demand,” she said. And even with an electric vehicle in every driveway, we’d still need to extract oil to produce plastics and to create airplane fuel, among other projects that fall under the category of hard-to-abate emissions.
Hollub’s plan for Occidental is to wrap the company around that lingering stream of demand for hydrocarbons. She says Occidental is now in the business of carbon management, a euphemism that glides over the messiness of the climate transition and companies’ role in it. Companies need to show anxious shareholders that they’re serious about reducing their carbon emissions, but they also need to keep operating in an economy that is still seriously short on meaningful alternatives to fossil fuels. Occidental is here to help, spurred along by a series of state and federal incentives that the company lobbied for over years, culminating in the passage this year of the Inflation Reduction Act.
Climate advocates have for years tried to make the use of fossil fuels reflect their full cost on the environment. That has put them deeply at odds with oil-and-gas executives like Hollub, who opposes carbon taxes. It’s also left U.S. climate policy stalled as the planet warms. But the IRA tries something else. “I do not see the IRA as a handout to the energy industry,” said Sasha Mackler, executive director of the energy program at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a D.C. think tank. Rather than making dirty energy more expensive, the IRA tries to make clean energy cheaper, Mackler said. And that’s something Hollub can get on board with. She’s selling the idea that a barrel of oil can be clean.
Getting to a net-zero barrel of oil, as Hollub calls it, involves literally rerouting the route carbon dioxide takes through the world. For companies like Occidental, CO2 isn’t just a planet-destroying waste product. It’s a critical input to the process of oil production. Engineers can use CO2 to essentially juice aging oil wells by pumping it underground to displace hydrocarbons. The process is called enhanced oil recovery, or EOR. Occidental is the industry leader, producing the equivalent of 130,000 barrels per day of EOR oil and gas as of 2020. And that oil can, in theory, be less impactful on the climate. “We have it documented that it takes more CO2 injected into the reservoir than what the incremental barrels from that CO2 that are produced will emit when they’re used,” she said.
The trick is where that injected CO2 comes from. The Permian is crisscrossed with thousands of miles of pipelines that bring CO2 to oil fields from as far away as Colorado. At the moment, the vast majority comes from naturally occurring reservoirs or as a byproduct of the production of methane. One of the strangest ironies of modern oil production is that companies like Occidental don’t actually have enough CO2. “There’s two billion barrels of resources remaining to be developed in our conventional reservoirs using CO2,” Hollub said.
So she and her team went out looking for more. Eventually they hit on the idea that’s encapsulated in the IRA. Instead of pulling CO2 out of the ground only to put it back, Occidental could divert some of the CO2 that’s being produced by so-called industrial sources, companies that would otherwise be dumping it into the atmosphere because, of course, there’s no business reason not to.
Finding companies that wanted to do the right thing with their waste CO2 turned out to be harder than Hollub thought. “We knocked on the doors of a lot of emitters,” Hollub said. They found one taker—a Texas ethanol producer that was willing to try a pilot. It was a decent start but not enough to unlock all those buried barrels.
That may soon change, driven by the IRA. The law puts new financial incentives behind those conversations Occidental was having with CO2 emitters. The IRA significantly beefed up the so-called 45Q tax incentive for companies to put CO2 permanently in the ground. Occidental can get $60 a ton in tax credits if the CO2 is stored in the process of pumping more oil for EOR, or $85 if the company just buries it.
There’s also a higher tier of incentives if companies obtain that CO2 using an experimental technology called direct air capture. Occidental is spending $1 billion to build what would be the world’s largest direct-air-capture facility in Texas, which you can loosely think of as a giant fan to suck ambient CO2 directly out of the atmosphere. Hollub plans to build as many as 70 by 2035.
The problem some see with this plan, and with Hollub and others’ efforts to shape legislation around it, is it tightens the economy’s dependence on fossil fuels rather than loosening it. Americans will now effectively pay Occidental to pursue more enhanced oil recovery. Those net-zero barrels of oil—should they materialize—might be better in climate terms than a traditional barrel. But that’s not the only alternative. Dollar for dollar, public money would be better spent on solar energy and other low-carbon options than on EOR, said Kurt House, who knows as much because he’s tried it. House got a Ph.D. at Harvard in the science of carbon capture and storage more than a decade ago and co-founded a company to put the idea into practice. “It is bad, bad economics,” he said. “If you pay people a million dollars a ton of CO2 sequestering, they will sequester a lot of CO2. But it’ll cost us. It’ll make solving global warming much, much, much, much, much more expensive.”
But Hollub isn’t likely to change course. “I would say to those who don’t like what we’re doing, who do they want to do this? Tell me who have they gotten to, that will commit to take CO2 out of the atmosphere?” she said. “This climate transition cannot happen as fast as some people want it to happen because the world can’t afford it,” Hollub said. “We’re looking at, you know, $100 to $200 trillion for this climate transition. We cannot spend that kind of money to make this transition happen without help from diverting some of the CO2 to enhanced oil recovery, which enables then the technology to be developed and to be built at a faster pace.” And in the meantime, Occidental can sell carbon offsets to companies like United Airlines, which is supporting the direct-air-capture facility.
Those companies can choose whether they want the CO2 Occidental is capturing to be buried, full stop, or used for more oil production. But it’s clear Hollub thinks EOR is a big part of the future for Occidental. She has often said that the last barrel of oil should come from EOR. “I think there could be a world where we do stop drilling new wells,” she said. “To increase recovery from the remaining conventional reservoirs is something that’s kind of like a best kept secret for the United States. Nobody very much realizes that, but that is there. And that gives us that longevity beyond what some people are forecasting,” Hollub said.
Hollub is well-aware of her critics. Perhaps that’s why she keeps looking around for signs of trouble. But even if it finds her, she doesn’t plan to change much. “I have no regrets,” she said.
Shares in London-listed fracking companies slumped on Wednesday after new U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he would stick by his party’s manifesto pledge to ban the shale gas extraction process in Britain.
IGas Energy stock IGAS, -27.66%
dropped 28% and the equity of Egdon Resources EDR, -18.21%
slumped 11%. The shares of AJ Lucas AJL, +2.99%,
which owns nearly 50% of U.K. fracker Cuadrilla, are quoted on the Australian stock exchange, which was closed.
The fracking sector is tiny in the U.K. — the two U.K.-quoted companies have a combined valuation of less than £60 million — with few suitable sites for the process to be viable.
But the industry’s practices are highly controversial, with campaigners arguing it causes small earth tremors, pollutes water tables and is not compatible with lower carbon production targets.
The shares of IGas Energy had jumped around ninefold since the start of the year, getting an extra recent boost from previous Prime Minister Liz Truss’s decision to go against the Conservative Party’s wishes and allow fracking.
You probably already know that because of market-capitalization weighting, a broad index such as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.67%
can be concentrated in a handful of stocks. Index funds are popular for good reasons — they tend to have low expenses and it is difficult for active managers to outperform them over the long term.
For example, look at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, -0.71%,
which tracks the S&P 500 by holding all of its stocks by the same weighting as the index. Five stocks — Apple Inc. AAPL, +0.08%,
Microsoft Corp. MSFT, -0.85%,
Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, -1.11%,
Alphabet Inc. GOOG, -1.08%
But there are other considerations when it comes to diversification — namely, factors. During an interview, Scott Weber of Vaughan Nelson Investment Management in Houston explained how groups of stock and commodities can move together, adding to a lack of diversification in a typical portfolio or index fund.
Weber co-manages the $293 million Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select Fund VNSAX, -0.96%,
which carries a five-star rating (the highest) from investment-researcher Morningstar, and has outperformed its benchmark, the S&P 500.
Vaughan Nelson is a Houston-based affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers, with about $13 billion in assets under management, including $5 billion managed under the same strategy as the fund, including the Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select ETF VNSE, -0.87%.
The ETF was established in Sept, 2020, so does not yet have a Morningstar rating.
Factoring-in the factors
Weber explained how he and colleagues incorporate 35 factors into their portfolio selection process. For example, a fund might hold shares of real-estate investment trusts (REITs), financial companies and energy producers. These companies are in different sectors, as defined by Standard & Poor’s. Yet their performance may be correlated.
Weber pointed out that REITs, for example, were broken out of the financial sector to become their own sector in 2016. “Did that make REIT’s more sensitive to interest rates? The answer is no,” he said. “The S&P sector buckets are somewhat better than arbitrary, but they are not perfect.”
Of course 2022 is something of an exception, with so many assets dropping in price at the same time. But over the long term, factor analysis can identify correlations and lead money managers to limit their investments in companies, sectors or industries whose prices tend to move together. This style has helped the Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select Fund outperform against its benchmark, Weber said.
Getting back to the five largest components of the S&P 500, they are all tech-oriented, even though only two, Apple and Microsoft, are in the information technology sector, while Alphabet is in the communications sector and Tesla is in the consumer discretionary sector. “Regardless of the sectors,” they tend to move together, Weber said.
Exposure to commodity prices, timing of revenue streams through economic cycles (which also incorporates currency exposure), inflation and many other items are additional factors that Weber and his colleagues incorporate into their broad allocation strategy and individual stock selections.
For example, you might ordinarily expect inflation, real estate and gold to move together, Weber said. But as we are seeing this year, with high inflation and rising interest rates, there is downward pressure on real-estate prices, while gold prices GC00, -0.01%
have declined 10% this year.
Digging further, the factors also encompass sensitivity of investments to U.S. and other countries’ government bonds of various maturities, credit spreads between corporate and government bonds in developed countries, exchange rates, and measures of liquidity, price volatility and momentum.
Stock selection
The largest holding of the Select fund is NextEra Energy Inc. NEE, -1.89%,
which owns FPL, Florida’s largest electric utility. FPL is phasing-out coal plants and replacing power-generating capacity with natural gas as well as wind and solar facilities.
Weber said: “There’s not a company on the planet that is better at getting alternate (meaning solar and wind) generation deployed. But because they own FPL, some of my investors say it is one of the largest carbon emitters on the planet.”
He added that “as a consequence of their skill in operating, they re generating amazing returns for investors.” NextEra’s share shave returned 446% over the past 10 years. One practice that has helped to elevate the company’s return on equity, and presumably its stock price, has been “dropping assets down” into NextEra Energy Partners LP NEP, -2.61%,
which NEE manages, Weber said. He added that the assets put into the partnership tend to be “great at cash-flow generation, but not on achieving growth.”
When asked for more examples of stocks in the fund that may provide excellent long-term returns, Weber mentioned Monolithic Power Systems Inc. MPWR, -0.24%,
as a way to take advantage of the broad decline in semiconductor stocks this year. (The iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX, +0.64%
has declined 21% this year, while industry stalwarts Nvidia Corp. NVDA, +0.70%
and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, -1.19%
are down 59% and 60%, respectively.)
He said Monolithic Power has been consistently making investments that improve its return on invested capital (ROIC). A company’s ROIC is its profit divided by the sum of the carrying value of stock it has issued over the years and its current debt. It doesn’t reflect the stock price and is considered a good measure of a management team’s success at making investment decisions and managing projects. Monolithic Power’s ROICC for 2021 was 21.8%, according to FactSet, rising from 13.2% five years earlier.
“We want to see a business generating a return on capital in excess of its cost of capital. In addition, they need to invest their capital at incrementally improving returns,” Weber said.
Another example Weber gave of a stock held by the fund is Dollar General Corp. DG, +0.33%,
which he called a much better operator than rival Dollar Tree Inc. DLTR, +0.14%,
which owns Family Dollar. He cited DG’s roll-out of frozen-food and fresh food offerings, as well as its growth runway: “They still have 8,000 or 9,000 stores to build-out” in the U.S., he said.
Fund holdings
In order to provide a full current list of stocks held under Weber’s strategy, here are the 27 stocks held by the the Natixis Vaughan Select ETF as of Sept. 30. The largest 10 positions made up 49% of the portfolio:
You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for a detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch.com quote page.
Fund performance
The Natixis Vaughan Select Fund was established on June 29, 2012. Here’s a 10-year chart showing the total return of the fund’s Class A shares against that of the S&P 500, with dividends reinvested. Sales charges are excluded from the chart and the performance numbers. In the current environment for mutual-fund distribution, sales charges are often waived for purchases of new shares through investment advisers.
FactSet
Here’s a comparison of returns for 2022 and average annual returns for various periods of the fund’s Class A shares to that of the S&P 500 and its Morningstar fund category through Oct. 18:
