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Tag: Foreign policy

  • The Gaza war is escalating. How bad will the Middle East crisis get?

    The Gaza war is escalating. How bad will the Middle East crisis get?

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    On October 7, Hamas fighters launched a bloody attack against Israel, using paragliders, speedboats and underground tunnels to carry out an offensive that killed almost 1,200 people and saw hundreds more taken back to the Gaza Strip as prisoners. 

    Almost three months on, Israel’s massive military retaliation is reverberating around the region, with explosions in Lebanon and rebels from Yemen attacking shipping in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Western countries are pumping military aid into Israel while deploying fleets to protect commercial shipping — risking confrontation with the Iranian navy.

    That’s in line with a grim prediction made last year by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, who said that Israel’s counteroffensive in Gaza meant an “expansion of the scope of the war has become inevitable,” and that further escalation across the Middle East should be expected. 

    What’s happening?

    The Israel Defense Forces are still fighting fierce battles for control of the Gaza Strip in what officials say is a mission to destroy Hamas. Troops have already occupied much of the north of the 365-square-kilometer territory, home to around 2.3 million Palestinians, and are now stepping up their assault in the south.

    Entire neighborhoods of densely-populated Gaza City have been levelled by intense Israeli shelling, rocket attacks and air strikes, rendering them uninhabitable. Although independent observers have been largely shut out, the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry claims more than 22,300 people have been killed, while the U.N. says 1.9 million people have been displaced.

    On a visit to the front lines, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned that his country is in the fight for the long haul. “The feeling that we will stop soon is incorrect. Without a clear victory, we will not be able to live in the Middle East,” he said.

    As the Gaza ground war intensifies, Hamas and its allies are increasingly looking to take the conflict to a far broader arena in order to put pressure on Israel.

    According to Seth Frantzman, a regional analyst with the Jerusalem Post and adjunct fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “Iran is certainly making a play here in terms of trying to isolate Israel [and] the U.S. and weaken U.S. influence, also showing that Israel doesn’t have the deterrence capabilities that it may have had in the past or at least thought it had.”

    Northern front

    On Tuesday a blast ripped through an office in Dahieh, a southern suburb of the Lebanese capital, Beirut — 130 kilometers from the border with Israel. Hamas confirmed that one of its most senior leaders, Saleh al-Arouri, was killed in the strike. 

    Government officials in Jerusalem have refused to confirm Israeli forces were behind the killing, while simultaneously presenting it as a “surgical strike against the Hamas leadership” and insisting it was not an attack against Lebanon itself, despite a warning from Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati that the incident risked dragging his country into a wider regional war. 

    Tensions between Israel and Lebanon have spiked in recent weeks, with fighters loyal to Hezbollah, the Shia Islamist militant group that controls the south of the country, firing hundreds of rockets across the frontier. Along with Hamas, Hezbollah is part of the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance” that aims to destroy the state of Israel.

    In a statement released on Tuesday, Iran’s foreign ministry said the death of al-Arouri, the most senior Hamas official confirmed to have died since October 7, will only embolden resistance against Israel, not only in the Palestinian territories but also in the wider Middle East.

    The Israel Defense Forces are still fighting fierce battles for control of the Gaza Strip in what officials say is a mission to destroy Hamas | Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images

    “We’re talking about the death of a senior Hamas leader, not from Hezbollah or the [Iranian] Revolutionary Guards. Is it Iran who’s going to respond? Hezbollah? Hamas with rockets? Or will there be no response, with the various players waiting for the next assassination?” asked Héloïse Fayet, a researcher at the French Institute for International Relations.

    In a much-anticipated speech on Wednesday evening, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah condemned the killing but did not announce a military response.

    Red Sea boils over

    For months now, sailors navigating the narrow Bab-el-Mandeb Strait that links Europe to Asia have faced a growing threat of drone strikes, missile attacks and even hijackings by Iran-backed Houthi militants operating off the coast of Yemen.

    The Houthi movement, a Shia militant group supported by Iran in the Yemeni civil war against Saudi Arabia and its local allies, insists it is only targeting shipping with links to Israel in a bid to pressure it to end the war in Gaza. However, the busy trade route from the Suez Canal through the Red Sea has seen dozens of commercial vessels targeted or delayed, forcing Western nations to intervene.

    Over the weekend, the U.S. Navy said it had intercepted two anti-ship missiles and sunk three boats carrying Houthi fighters in what it said was a hijacking attempt against the Maersk Hangzhou, a container ship. Danish shipping giant Maersk said Tuesday that it would “pause all transits through the Red Sea until further notice,” following a number of other cargo liners; energy giant BP is also suspending travel through the region.

    On Wednesday the Houthis targeted a CMA CGM Tage container ship bound for Israel, according to the group’s military spokesperson Yahya Sarea. “Any U.S. attack will not pass without a response or punishment,” he added. 

    “The sensible decision is one that the vast majority of shippers I think are now coming to, [which] is to transit through round the Cape of Good Hope,” said Marco Forgione, director general at the Institute of Export & International Trade. “But that in itself is not without heavy impact, it’s up to two weeks additional sailing time, adds over £1 million to the journey, and there are risks, particularly in West Africa, of piracy as well.” 

    However, John Stawpert, a senior manager at the International Chamber of Shipping, noted that while “there has been disruption” and an “understandable nervousness about transiting these routes … trade is continuing to flow.”

    “A major contributory factor to that has been the presence of military assets committed to defending shipping from these attacks,” he said. 

    The impacts of the disruption, especially price hikes hitting consumers, will be seen “in the next couple of weeks,” according to Forgione. Oil and gas markets also risk taking a hit — the price of benchmark Brent crude rose by 3 percent to $78.22 a barrel on Wednesday. Almost 10 percent of the world’s oil and 7 percent of its gas flows through the Red Sea.

    Western response

    On Wednesday evening, the U.S., Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom issued an ultimatum calling the Houthi attacks “illegal, unacceptable, and profoundly destabilizing,” but with only vague threats of action.

    “We call for the immediate end of these illegal attacks and release of unlawfully detained vessels and crews. The Houthis will bear the responsibility of the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy, and free flow of commerce in the region’s critical waterways,” the statement said.

    The Houthi movement insists it is only targeting shipping with links to Israel in a bid to pressure it to end the war in Gaza | Houthi Movement via Getty Images

    Despite the tepid language, the U.S. has already struck back at militants from Iranian-backed groups such as Kataeb Hezbollah in Iraq and Syria after they carried out drone attacks that injured U.S. personnel.

    The assumption in London is that airstrikes against the Houthis — if it came to that — would be U.S.-led with the U.K. as a partner. Other nations might also chip in.

    Two French officials said Paris is not considering air strikes. The country’s position is to stick to self-defense, and that hasn’t changed, one of them said. French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu confirmed that assessment, saying on Tuesday that “we’re continuing to act in self-defense.” 

    “Would France, which is so proud of its third way and its position as a balancing power, be prepared to join an American-British coalition?” asked Fayet, the think tank researcher.

    Iran looms large

    Iran’s efforts to leverage its proxies in a below-the-radar battle against both Israel and the West appear to be well underway, and the conflict has already scuppered a long-awaited security deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

    “Since 1979, Iran has been conducting asymmetrical proxy terrorism where they try to advance their foreign policy objectives while displacing the consequences, the counterpunches, onto someone else — usually Arabs,” said Bradley Bowman, senior director of Washington’s Center on Military and Political Power. “An increasingly effective regional security architecture, of the kind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are trying to build, is a nightmare for Iran which, like a bully on the playground, wants to keep all the other kids divided and distracted.”

    Despite Iran’s fiery rhetoric, it has stopped short of declaring all-out war on its enemies or inflicting massive casualties on Western forces in the region — which experts say reflects the fact it would be outgunned in a conventional conflict.

    “Neither Iran nor the U.S. nor Israel is ready for that big war,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Middle East Institute’s Iran program. “Israel is a nuclear state, Iran is a nuclear threshold state — and the U.S. speaks for itself on this front.”

    Israel might be betting on a long fight in Gaza, but Iran is trying to make the conflict a global one, he added. “Nobody wants a war, so both sides have been gambling on the long term, hoping to kill the other guy through a thousand cuts.”

    Emilio Casalicchio contributed reporting.

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    Gabriel Gavin, Antonia Zimmermann and Laura Kayali

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  • EU, US warn against Israel-Hamas war expanding into regional conflict

    EU, US warn against Israel-Hamas war expanding into regional conflict

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    EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, both on trips to the Mideast, warned on Saturday against the Israel-Hamas war escalating into a regional conflict as hostilities increased following the killing this week of a top Hamas official.

    “It is absolutely imperative to ensure Lebanon is not drawn into a regional conflict,” Borrell told a press conference in Beirut, according to Reuters and Agence France-Presse. “I’m also sending this message to Israel: No one will win from a regional conflict,” he said,.

    Blinken met on Saturday with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan as part of a new diplomatic tour of the Middle East. Blinken “emphasized the need to prevent the conflict from spreading, secure the release of hostages, expand humanitarian assistance and reduce civilian casualties,” U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in comments to Reuters.

    Borrell said he agreed with Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati to work on “de-escalation and long-term stability,” during a meeting that touched on southern Lebanon, the Gaza war and Syria.

    He also sounded the alarm about a “worrying intensification of exchange of fire” at the United Nations demarcation between Lebanon and Israel, known as the Blue Line.

    “The priority is to avoid regional escalation and to advance diplomatic efforts with a view to creating the conditions to reach a just and lasting peace between Israel, Palestine and in the region,” said Borrell in a post on X.

    Fears that the Israel-Hamas conflict will spread to neighboring countries have grown as the Gaza Strip death toll of nearly 23,000 keeps rising after three months of Israel’s heavy military retaliation to a Hamas massacre in early October that killed over 1,200 people and led to the hostage-taking of nearly 250 others.

    Lebanese militant group Hezbollah on Saturday fired dozens of rockets at Israel after a strike earlier this week killed Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri. Houthi militants, meanwhile, have increased their attacks of commercial ships in the Red Sea.

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    Clothilde Goujard

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  • Muslim leaders expand campaign to abandon Biden in 2024 over Israel-Hamas war

    Muslim leaders expand campaign to abandon Biden in 2024 over Israel-Hamas war

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    U.S. President Joe Biden joins Israel’s Prime Minister for the start of the Israeli war cabinet meeting, in Tel Aviv on October 18, 2023, amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas.

    Miriam Alster | Afp | Getty Images

    Muslim leaders announced on Saturday that they are going national with an effort to dissuade voters from reelecting President Joe Biden in 2024 due to his failure to call for a cease-fire in Gaza.

    The #AbandonBiden campaign officially began earlier in December, led by Muslim leaders in swing states like Michigan, Minnesota and Arizona, who disapproved of Biden’s support for Israel’s counterattacks against Hamas. The counterattacks have come at the cost of tens of thousands of innocent Palestinian lives.

    Now, the coalition intends to expand the pressure campaign to all 50 states.

    “We will save America from itself, by punishing Biden at the ballot box,” said lead organizer Jaylani Hussein in a statement.

    The Biden campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    The coalition plans to endorse an independent presidential candidate, Hussein told CNBC. He added that the campaign does not support former President Donald Trump, the current Republican frontrunner, though it is aware of the risks of depleting Biden’s voter base.

    “There is a likelihood that our votes may weaken the Democrats that the Republicans may win,” Hussein said. “We’re not fools about that.”

    The #AbandonBiden campaign is willing to take that risk, he said: “We will risk an unknown four years of Trump.”

    Trump’s track record on protecting Muslim freedoms does not garner optimism though and the former president has been vocal about his plans to pick up where he left off. Should Trump win a second term, he said he wants to reintroduce and expand his Muslim ban, which prohibited U.S. entry of people from seven Muslim-majority countries.

    Still, Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war has been a blight to his reelection campaign so far, especially among key voter demographics that helped put him in office four years ago.

    Young voters sunk Biden’s approval rating to an all-time low in a November NBC poll, due centrally to his foreign policy actions in the war. And Muslim-Americans in battleground states, who helped win Biden his thin margin of victory in 2020, have said they would rather vote for a third-party candidate or not vote at all this time around.

    That is not exclusive to Muslim-Americans. An October Gallup poll found that a majority of voters are so dissatisfied with the Republican and Democratic parties that they think an independent party candidate is needed.

    It is too soon to tell whether the third-party momentum will hold at the ballot box. Roughly a year out from election day, this kind of polling represents a snapshot in time, not a decisive prediction, but it can offer insight into emerging trends and how a campaign may think to reposition itself for the future.

    The Biden administration has repeatedly said it expects Israel to abide by international humanitarian law and take every possible measure to reduce civilian deaths. However, the White House has yet to formally condition U.S. aid to Israel on those humanitarian standards.

    On Friday, Biden sidestepped Congress for the second time this month to pass $147.5 million in emergency military support to Israel.

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  • Russia pummels Ukraine with 'massive' wave of airstrikes; 18 reported killed

    Russia pummels Ukraine with 'massive' wave of airstrikes; 18 reported killed

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    An aerial view of a destroyed building after Russian strikes hit the city center in Dnipro, Ukraine on December 29, 2023. A mall, maternity hospital and many other buildings were damaged in the attack.

    Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

    Russia on Friday launched one of its worst aerial attacks on Ukraine since the start of the war, killing at least 18 civilians, according to officials.

    Ukraine’s Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba said around 110 Russian missiles and numerous drones targeted areas across the country, including a maternity ward, schools, hospitals, residential buildings and commercial areas.

    The National Police of Ukraine put the number of reported deaths at 18 in an update at 1p.m. local time (6 a.m. ET).

    Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk called it “the most massive attack from the air” on the messaging app Telegram.

    “Today, Russia used nearly every type of weapon in its arsenal: ‘Kindzhals,’ S-300s, cruise missiles, and drones. Strategic bombers launched X-101/X-505 missiles. A total of around 110 missiles were fired against Ukraine, with the majority of them being shot down,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on X.

    “We will surely respond to terrorist strikes. And we will continue to fight for the security of our entire country, every city, and every citizen. Russian terror must and will lose,” he added.

    A woman walks past a damaged business centre after a rocket attack in the centre of Kyiv on December 29, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    Sergei Chuzavkov | Afp | Getty Images

    Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said the death toll in the capital was now three, after bodies were pulled from the rubble of a warehouse. A metro station and business center were damaged and scores were injured.

    Other deaths and injuries were reported in Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, Dnipro and beyond. The Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office said three died after the city was hit 22 times over three hours starting at 5 a.m. local time. Odesa’s governor said three people died and 22 were injured, including two children aged six and eight, and a pregnant woman.

    UN Humanitarian Coordinator in Ukraine Denise Brown condemned the attacks, which she said had killed and injured civilians in “almost every region of the country.”

    The Russian Ministry of Defense said in its daily briefing Friday that it had carried out “50 group and one massive strike” between Dec. 23 and Dec. 29 using “precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles.”

    It claimed the strikes were against military facilities and storage units, and Ukrainian armed forces units.

    Ukraine’s Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba said he wished the “sounds of explosions” could be heard “in all major capitals, headquarters, and parliaments, which are currently debating further support for Ukraine.”

    “Our only collective response can and must be continued, robust, and long-term military and financial assistance to Ukraine,” he added.

    Ukraine has the backing of the United States and European Union, but both have become embroiled in political disputes over the continuation of significant financial support for the war-torn country.

    The U.S. on Wednesday released $250 million in weaponry for Ukraine, but officials warned this could be the final delivery as the release of further funds fails to pass Congress.

    The EU earlier this month also failed to pass a 50-billion-euro ($54-billion) aid package for Ukraine after the move was vetoed by Hungary.

    It comes at a crucial time as Kyiv assesses what progress it can make in occupied and under-attack areas in 2024 after its summer counteroffensive operation proved tougher than hoped.

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  • With hopes of victory fading, Ukraine's war against Russia could get even harder in 2024

    With hopes of victory fading, Ukraine's war against Russia could get even harder in 2024

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    A Ukrainian soldier is seen inside an artillery vehicle in his fighting position as Russia-Ukraine war continues in the direction of Kharkiv, Ukraine on November 20, 2023.

    Diego Herrera Carcedo | Anadolu | Getty Images

    At the start of 2023, hopes were high that a much-vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive — expected to be launched in the spring — would change the dial in the war against Russia.

    It didn’t, and the prospect of a breakthrough in 2024 is also unlikely, military experts and defense analysts told CNBC.

    They predict intense fighting is likely to continue into the next year but say Kyiv’s forces are unlikely to launch any more counteroffensives. Russia, meanwhile, is likely to focus on consolidating the territory it has already seized, particularly in eastern Ukraine.

    Away from the battlefield, military experts said that the trajectory the Russia-Ukraine war takes in 2024 will mostly be dictated thousands of miles away in the U.S., Ukraine’s largest military supporter, and whether aid declines in the run-up — and following — the U.S. presidential election.

    “War is an uncertain endeavor,” retired Army Lt. General Stephen Twitty, former deputy commander of U.S. European Command, told CNBC.

    “Russia can win the war, or the Ukrainians can win the war. And, as you’re seeing things now, if you really think about it, what has been achieved this year? Very little has been achieved by Russia, and you can say the same thing for the Ukrainians,” he said.

    Ukrainian servicemen take part in a military training exercise not far from front line in the Donetsk region on June 8, 2023.

    Anatolii Stepanov | Afp | Getty Images

    “We’re in this situation now where if there’s not a clear winner, there’s going to be a stalemate, and there’s going to be, perhaps, a future frozen conflict. What can tilt the balance, in my view, is if the Ukrainians are not resupplied and they’re not re-funded and they don’t get the equipment and people that they need. Then this war could tilt to the Russians,” Twitty noted.

    Expectations not met

    Panorama of the city from a bird’s-eye view, shot on a drone, covered with snow on December 7, 2023 in Avdiivka, Ukraine.

    Libkos | Getty Images

    Weather conditions are deteriorating in Ukraine, with mud, freezing rain, snow, and ice making offensive and reconnaissance operations challenging. Intense fighting continues nonetheless, and particularly around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine where Russian forces are conducting offensive operations and have made some recent, confirmed advances.

    Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted last week that Russian forces have likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front, during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season, “in an effort to seize and retain the initiative” prior to the Russian presidential elections in March 2024.

    In the meantime, the ISW noted in analysis, “Ukrainian forces establish and consolidate defensive positions to conserve manpower and resources for future offensive efforts.”

    Ukrainian forces have adopted a more defensive stance as circumstances dictate; a senior army general warned last week that frontline Ukrainian troops face artillery shortages and have scaled back some military operations because of a shortfall of foreign assistance.

    Aid and politics

    Another year of war in Europe has undoubtedly drained Western military resources and the political appetite to maintain massive amounts of military aid for Ukraine.

    Ongoing funding for Ukraine is far from secure in 2024 given the fact that the U.S. presidential election could herald a seismic change in the attitude toward, and support for Kyiv.

    Specifically, all eyes are on former U.S. president and Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, who cultivated close relations with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during his presidency.

    There are concerns that, given Trump’s previous good relations with Moscow and “America First” policy, aid for Ukraine could be shelved rapidly. Defense analysts agree that much of the outlook for Ukraine is dependent on the outcome of the U.S. vote.

    “I think it’s important to understand the extent to which Ukraine is reliant on the U.S. right now, because it’s quite significantly more reliant on the U.S. than it is on the EU,” Sam Cranny-Evans, defense analyst at the Royal United Services Institute defense think tank told CNBC.

    “If the U.S. election goes in a way that is not in Ukraine’s favor, coupled with the fact that the EU is not really stepping up to the plate — it’s ammunition production is so far off what it should have been by now to give Ukraine a hope of surviving and a hope of victory — it’s not a very cheery prediction for 2024.”

    Good chemistry: President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands during a joint press conference after their summit on July 16, 2018 in Helsinki, Finland.

    Chris McGrath | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Rumblings of discontent over continuing Ukraine aid have been heard in some Republican quarters for months now, as well as in eastern Europe.

    Former U.S. ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker told CNBC he believes American and EU aid packages for Ukraine will be approved come January, saying he believed this funding would tide Ukraine over for another year, militarily. Volker said that aid packages must include more advanced weaponry for Ukraine, however, like F-16 fighter jets which have been pledged by Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands.

    Ukrainian pilots are beginning their training on the jets now but it could be a number of months before they’re deployed in Ukraine. The U.S. is not providing F-16s to Ukraine but has authorized allies to provide their own jets.

    “A couple of things ought to change,” Volker told CNBC. “We ought to lift restrictions on the weapons we’re providing. We still don’t provide the longest range missiles and we still have not delivered any Western aircraft in Ukraine yet. Those things have to happen. And I think we have to try to give the Ukrainians more of a technological advantage,” he noted.

    The United States has said that it will begin flight training for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets.

    Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

    Volker believes that a Trump presidency might not be the catastrophe for Ukraine that is feared, but said it would make future funding uncertain.

    “I doubt that even if Trump were elected that he would abandon support for Ukraine overall, because it would be a disaster for U.S. interests, and it would appear to be a failure. You’d have these images of Russians over-running places, and brutality and so forth, so I don’t think he wants that. But it’s not clear exactly what he would do to try to end the war.”

    For his part, Trump has said that he’d be able to resolve the Ukraine war “in one day” if he was re-elected, saying he’d convince the leaders of Ukraine and Russia to make a deal.

    More stalemate or negotiations?

    Russia has shown that it is committed to a long conflict in Ukraine and that it has the capacity to send hundreds of thousands of men to war. Putin claimed in his end-of year press conference that 617,000 troops were currently active in Ukraine.

    Putin denied a second wave of mobilization was necessary for now, but in early December he signed a decree ordering the military to increase the number of Russian armed forces personnel by 170,000, bringing the total number of troops to 1.32 million.

    Russia is also massively boosting military spending in 2024, with almost 30% of its fiscal expenditure to be directed toward the armed forces. Its military-industrial complex has also ramped up the production of hardware from drones to aircraft.

    Ukraine’s defense ministry said last week that its main goal in 2024 is to boost its domestic defense industry in the face of uncertain future supplies from its Western allies. It has also changed conscription laws, foreseeing the need to bolster its forces, which are dwarfed in size by Russia’s but are more highly trained and equipped. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that the military had asked for up to 500,000 additional conscripts but said he needed to hear “more arguments” to support the sensitive and costly proposal.

    With both Ukraine and Russia investing heavily in the war, it’s unlikely there will be any negotiations to end the war or agree a cease-fire. Defense analysts argue that neither side would want to go into negotiations unless they’re in a position of strength and able to dictate terms.

    “In the case of a Republican winning the presidential election next year, especially if that’s Donald Trump, who seems to be the front runner, and [if] funding is decreased substantially, then there will be increased pressure on Ukraine to negotiate,” Mario Bikarski, a Europe and Russia analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), told CNBC.

    A Ukrainian tank drives along the field on December 7, 2023 in Avdiivka, Ukraine.

    Kostya Liberov | Getty Images

    “Of course, Ukraine currently doesn’t want to negotiate … but given the circumstances, it will have little choice but to comply with that. And then the question also remains if Russia will be willing to negotiate because if there are signs that the West will stop supporting Ukraine, and Ukraine will be coerced into these negotiations, Russia might see this as another window of opportunity to consolidate a lot more gains.”

    Defense experts told CNBC their baseline scenario for 2024 was a continuation of the current intensity of fighting but the same sense of stalemate with neither side able to progress much on the ground and take or reclaim territory.

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  • Houthi attacks rocking Red Sea trade routes likely won't end anytime soon. Here's what can happen next

    Houthi attacks rocking Red Sea trade routes likely won't end anytime soon. Here's what can happen next

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    Houthi military helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released on Nov. 20, 2023.

    Houthi Military Media | Via Reuters

    Drone and missile attacks by Yemen-based Houthi militants have upended shipping through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, a narrow waterway through which some 10% of the world’s trade sails.

    U.S. Central Command over the weekend said it shot down “14 unmanned aerial systems launched as a drone wave from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.” A day later, oil major BP announced it would “temporarily pause” all transits through the Red Sea, following similar decisions by shipping giants Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM.

    The Pentagon said Monday it was forming a maritime security coalition with allies to counter the threat and provide protection for shippers, who as of Tuesday had diverted more than $30 billion worth of cargo away from the Red Sea.

    Many tankers and cargo ships that would normally transit via the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean are instead being rerouted around the continent of Africa, which adds 14 to 15 days on average to sea voyages. International logistics firm DHL warned that “the diversion will significantly increase transit times between Asia and Europe and require shipping lines to increase planned capacity.”

    The changes have already spiked insurance premiums on ships and contributed to a bump in oil prices. And U.S. military might in the area may not be enough to quell the disruptions.

    “A dedicated naval task force will be able to more effectively intercept drone and missile attacks and prevent boarding operations, but the task force won’t be able to be everywhere all at once,” Ryan Bohl, senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at Rane, told CNBC.

    “So long as there are significant numbers of civilian ships moving through this area, the Houthis will have plenty of targets to choose from.”

    But who are the militants attacking the ships, and why are they doing it? And will a U.S.-led naval security coalition be effective enough to make the Red Sea trade routes safe for trade again?

    Who are the Houthis?

    The Houthis are a Shiite sect of Islam called Zaydi Muslims, a minority in mostly-Sunni Yemen whose roots there go back hundreds of years. They emerged as a political and militant organization in the 1990s, opposing the Yemeni government over issues like corruption, U.S. influence and perceived mistreatment of their group.

    After carrying out insurgencies against the state from the early 2000s onward, the Houthis capitalized on the instability that followed the 2011 Arab Spring to increase their following. In 2003, influenced by the Lebanese Shiite militant organization Hezbollah, they adopted the official slogan: “God is the greatest, death to America, death to Israel, a curse upon the Jews, victory to Islam.”

    Supporters of the Houthi movement shout slogans as they attend a rally to mark the 4th anniversary of the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen’s war, in Sanaa, Yemen March 26, 2019.

    Khaled Abdullah | Reuters

    In 2014, Houthi rebels took over the capital Sanaa, setting off a war with the Saudi and Western-backed Yemeni government. A Saudi-led Arab coalition in 2015 launched an offensive against Yemen which went on to create what the U.N. called one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world.

    The war continues to this day with limited cease-fires, and the Houthis have launched hundreds of drone and projectile attacks on Saudi Arabia since it began, with many of the weapons allegedly provided by Iran.

    The Houthis now control most of Yemen, including Sanaa and the important Red Sea port of Hodeida, and their ranks have massively expanded along with their military capabilities, aided significantly by Iran.

    Some call the group an Iranian proxy, but many Yemen experts say it is not a direct proxy of the Islamic Republic. Rather, the two have a mutually beneficial relationship but the Houthis pursue their own interests, which often align with Iran’s, and they enjoy Tehran’s military and financial support.

    Why are they attacking cargo ships?

    Yemen’s Houthis have made clear their intention of targeting Israeli ships and any ships headed to or from Israel, in retaliation for the country’s war in Gaza that has so far killed more than 20,000 people there and triggered a humanitarian catastrophe. Israel launched its offensive on Oct. 7, after the Palestinian militant group Hamas carried out a brutal terrorist attack that killed some 1,200 people in Israel’s south and took another 240 hostage.

    Mock drones and missiles are displayed at a square on December 07, 2023 in Sana’a, Yemen.

    Mohammed Hamoud | Getty Images

    So far, the Houthis have deployed direct-attack drones, anti-ship missiles, and even physically seized a merchant ship via helicopter landing. And they don’t plan on stopping.

    Mohammed al-Bukaiti, a senior Houthi political official, said during a news conference Tuesday: “Even if America succeeds in mobilizing the entire world, our military operations will not stop unless the genocide crimes in Gaza stop and allow food, medicine, and fuel to enter its besieged population, no matter the sacrifices it costs us.”

    What happens next?

    The U.S.-led naval coalition, which is still being formed, “is collectively capable of deploying a considerable maritime force in the Red Sea,” said Sidharth Kaushal, sea power research fellow at ​​​​the London-based Royal United Services Institute. Other members of the multinational initiative include the U.K., Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, and Spain.

    “As we have seen with the USS Carney’s recent activity in the region, modern vessels can provide considerable protection to both themselves and other ships in a theatre against air and missile threats,” Kaushal said, referencing the American guided-missile destroyer that shot down 14 drones on Saturday.

    The Galaxy Leader, recently seized by Yemen, shown in close-up satellite imagery near Hodeida, Yemen.

    Maxar | Getty Images

    But the challenge remains, Kaushal said, because of the “relatively low cost of the drones and missiles” targeting shipping and the fact that naval ships still have to return to friendly ports to reload their air defense interceptors.

    Another major risk is the threat of escalation. The most effective way to take out the Houthi threat is to attack their launch sites — which “would not automatically result in a regional conflagration, but could raise the risks of one,” Kaushal said, adding that “I don’t think that either the Houthis and Iran or the U.S. wants a wider escalation at this point in time.”

    Corey Ranslem, CEO of maritime security firm Dryad Global, expects the threat to shipping “to continue for the foreseeable future as long as the conflict continues in Gaza,” he told CNBC.

    “Depending on how the U.S.-led coalition comes together, we could also see the threat level against commercial shipping decline if their efforts are effective,” he said.  

    U.S. response in Red Sea provides deterrence but risks widening of war: Harvard's Meghan O’Sullivan

    Ranslem predicts minimal economic impact in the short term. But each year there are “approximately 35,000 vessel movements … primarily trading between Europe, the Middle East and Asia” in the Red Sea region, accounting for roughly 10% of global GDP, he said.

    That means that if the threats continue, countries in those regions could see significant economic impacts. Israel’s economy could be seriously affected as well if more shipping companies decline to take on cargo destined there; two companies have already done just that.

    “For the Houthis, the challenge will be to present enough of a threat to deter shipping companies from passing through the Bab al-Mandab while avoiding actions that could trigger an overwhelming military response from the U.S.-led coalition,” said Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal MENA analyst at Verisk Maplecroft. 

    “The Houthis don’t need to physically prevent ships from passing through the Red Sea; they only need to cause enough disruption to make maritime insurance premiums prohibitive or compel most shipping liners to suspend activities there.”

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  • Keir Starmer pitches for summit with Joe Biden ahead of 2024 elections

    Keir Starmer pitches for summit with Joe Biden ahead of 2024 elections

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    LONDON — He’s embraced Bidenomics. Now, U.K. Labour leader Keir Starmer wants to meet U.S. President Joe Biden for face-to-face talks before both men head into elections next year.

    The U.K. opposition leader — on course to become Britain’s next prime minister, if current polling proves correct — is seeking talks with Biden in 2024, two Labour Party officials told POLITICO. They were granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

    “David Lammy [Starmer’s shadow foreign secretary] has been tasked with making it happen,” one of the officials said. “But it’s tricky because we don’t know when the election is going to be.”

    The precise date of the U.K. election will be chosen by Starmer’s opponent, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who indicated on Monday that it would be some time in 2024.

    Lammy has emerged as a key figure in Labour’s efforts to deepen its relationship with the Biden administration. He has visited the U.S. five times in his two years as shadow foreign secretary, and prides himself on his Washington contacts — even counting former U.S. President Barack Obama as a friend.

    “If I become foreign secretary, I don’t just want to build on those links, I want to bring a little bit of American energy into Britain’s foreign policy,” Lammy said. “We need to travel, make connections and share ideas at more of an American pace.”

    But while polls suggest Starmer is on course for victory in 2024, Biden faces a struggle to be re-elected.

    There are also questions over whether Starmer’s team is really prepared for a possible win by former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2024 — and therefore how warmly the party should embrace Biden’s economic ideas in the meantime.

    Hangin’ with Joe

    As the U.K. election approaches, Starmer has been keen to present himself as a prime-minister-in-waiting, lining up meetings with leaders around the globe.

    So far he’s sat down with France’s Emmanuel Macron, Canada’s Justin Trudeau, Australia’s Anthony Alabanese, Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Greece’s Kyriakos Mitsotakis, among others.

    Biden, however, has remained elusive — even though Labour politicians and officials have become a regular presence in Washington over the past year.

    Shadow Cabinet ministers including Lammy, Rachel Reeves, John Healey, Nick Thomas-Symonds and Lisa Nandy, and top aides such as Morgan McSweeney, have all crossed the Atlantic in the past 12 months to meet senior U.S. figures.

    Labour’s closeness to Biden’s administration has been likened by some to Tony Blair’s courtship of Bill Clinton’s Democrats | Anna Moneymaker via Getty Images

    In interviews and in private, Labour politicians stress their closeness in policy terms to the Biden administration as well as their embrace of Bidenomics — an interventionist U.S. policy characterized by robust green subsidies and a push for domestic manufacturing.

    “The economic analysis — where you link foreign policy and domestic policy — is something on which there is a really, really strong sense of shared mission,” one shadow Cabinet minister said, granted anonymity to speak frankly.

    They added: “The other thing which has been a real shared point is the green transition … Joe Biden has said ‘when I think climate, I think jobs, jobs jobs.’ And I think that’s very similar in terms of the approach that that we will want to take as well.”

    Beyond the headline goals, key Labour figures have been talking tactics as well.

    On a trip to D.C. in May, Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves was convinced she had to water down her pledge to invest £28 billion a year in green projects until 2030. On her return, she downgraded this to an “ambition” that Labour hoped to meet in its first term in government.

    One of the Labour officials cited earlier said that Democrat strategists had advised them to “make yourself as small [a target] as possible” by addressing any political weaknesses well ahead of the election — and that the decision to dilute the £28 billion pledge was part of that strategy. The governing Tories have used the huge spending commitment as a regular attack line against Labour.

    Labour’s closeness to Biden’s administration has been likened by some to Tony Blair’s courtship of Bill Clinton’s Democrats in the run-up to the 1997 general election and the 1996 presidential run in the U.S.

    Yet that proximity presents Starmer and Reeves with a problem: “If the electorate rejects [Bidenomics] in America, that puts them in a difficult position,” former Starmer aide Chris Ward told POLITICO’s Westminster Insider podcast.

    “Does that mean Starmer and Reeves now suddenly say, ‘actually, do you know what? That kind of approach isn’t the right one?’”

    Trumped by Trump?

    Labour’s embrace of Biden also raises questions about the party’s preparedness for a Trump victory in November 2024.

    Starmer told POLITICO’s Power Play podcast in September that a Trump win would not be his “desired outcome.” He later told the BBC he would have to make the relationship work if Trump did become president.

    But Labour’s recent internal split over a cease-fire in Gaza demonstrates how foreign policy issues can throw up difficulties for the center-left party.

    While polls suggest Starmer is on course for victory in 2024, Biden faces a struggle to be re-elected | Leon Neal/Getty Images

    Asked about the prospect of a Trump victory, Starmer’s Shadow Climate Secretary Ed Miliband told guests at a private event in November that he simply hoped it wouldn’t happen, according to two of those in the room. “He seemed very unwilling to even think about Trump winning,” one of the two said.

    Michael Martins, a former political and economic specialist at the U.S. State Department, suggested Labour’s approach would need to evolve as the U.S. election grows near.

    “Starmer has already done a lot to rebuild Labour’s credibility,” he said. “Now the party has to develop a foreign policy that is not just sticking as close to President Biden as possible.”

    “If President Trump wins in 2024 — which currently seems like the most likely outcome — Starmer will have to strike a balancing act between representing U.K. interests and managing his own party. Many Labour MPs and party members will want him to [publicly] criticize Trump and his politics.”

    Bridging the divide

    Nevertheless, senior Labour MPs insist they’re building links with American politicians on all sides, and would be ready to work with any administration.

    Lammy and Shadow Defense Secretary John Healey traveled to Washington in September to meet senior American politicians, and held lengthy talks with Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. “He gave us a great deal of his time in a diary which normally struggles to accommodate a 5-minute meeting,” Healey said.

    But Healey stressed that the broader purpose of the trip was to strengthen “Labour’s credentials as a wannabe government of Britain — not party relations with the Democrats.”

    “David and I deliberately made our program bipartisan,” he said. “We met and spoke with as many Republican Senators and Congress members as we did Democrats.”

    “I’m an Atlanticist who spent childhood summers with my aunt in New York, studied law at Harvard and worked as a lawyer in San Francisco,” Lammy said. “These days some of my closest political relationships, which I’ve built up over many years, are on the Hill. Not only with Democrats, but also Republicans.”

    Lammy’s Republican contacts include former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Nadia Schadlow, Trump’s former deputy national security adviser .

    “Whoever is in charge, the U.S. remains the UK’s most important military, intelligence and nuclear relationship,” Lammy said.

    Healey agreed: “The U.S. is the U.K.’s most important security ally, and vice versa. That will remain, and has survived through decades, whatever the ups and downs of the political leaderships.”

    A second Trump presidency would undoubtedly test that maxim.

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  • Marcos vows to defend the Philippines' sovereignty amid China's 'aggression and provocations'

    Marcos vows to defend the Philippines' sovereignty amid China's 'aggression and provocations'

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    A Chinese Coast Guard ship sails near a Philippine vessel (R) that was part of a convoy of civilian boats in the disputed South China Sea on December 10, 2023. A convoy of civilian boats planning to deliver provisions to Filipino fishermen and troops in the disputed South China Sea aborted the trip on December 10 after “constant shadowing” by Chinese vessels, the organiser said.

    Ted Aljibe | Afp | Getty Images

    Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has vowed to step up the country’s defense of its maritime zones in the South China Sea after Filipino and Chinese vessels collided over the weekend.

    “We remain undeterred,” Marcos said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

    “The aggression and provocations perpetrated by the China Coast Guard and their Chinese Maritime Militia against our vessels and personnel over the weekend have only further steeled our determination to defend and protect our nation’s sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction in the West Philippine Sea.”

    This comes as the Philippines has stepped up its resistance this year against China’s aggressive claims and projection of power over almost the entire waterway that Manila calls the West Philippine Sea.

    Other Southeast Asian countries like Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam also claim parts of the South China Sea. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague ruled that China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea have no legal basis.

    CNBC has reached out to China’s foreign ministry for comment.

    On Sunday, the Philippines accused China of causing “severe damage” to one of its vessels and ramming into another.

    China’s Coast Guard “directly targeted” Filipino vessels, “disabling the vessel and seriously endangering the lives of its crew,” according to a statement by the Philippines Maritime Task Force, shared by Jay Tarriela, Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea.

    The Filipino vessels were part of a convoy on a resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal, where Filipino soldiers live on a grounded warship in the submerged reef in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.

    A spokesperson for the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs said at a press conference on Monday in Manila that the Chinese ambassador has been summoned. The Philippines also lodged diplomatic protests with the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Teresita Daza said.

    A China Coast Guard spokesperson said Sunday the Philippines was “entirely” responsible for the “deliberate collision” and ignored China’s repeated dissuasion and warnings by “insisting” on sending four vessels to deliver supplies to the warship that Beijing said was illegally “sitting on the beach.”

    The U.S. State Department threw its weight behind the Philippines, accusing Chinese ships of “reckless maneuvers, including forcing a collision.”

    According to the U.S. State Department, a separate incident at the Scarborough Reef on Saturday used acoustic devices, incapacitating the Filipino crew members, and drove away Philippine fishing vessels.

    “As reflected in an international tribunal’s legally binding decision issued in July 2016, the PRC has no lawful maritime claims to the waters around Second Thomas Shoal, and Filipinos are entitled to traditional fishing rights around Scarborough Reef,” said State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller.

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  • The Two Republican Theories for Beating Trump

    The Two Republican Theories for Beating Trump

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    The latest GOP presidential debate demonstrated again that Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley are pursuing utterly inimical strategies for catching the front-runner, Donald Trump.

    The debate, on Wednesday evening, also showed why neither approach looks remotely sufficient to dislodge Trump from his commanding position in the race.

    DeSantis delivered a stronger overall debate performance than Haley. But the evening mostly displayed the structural limitations of the theory that each campaign is operating under, and the limited progress either candidate has made toward surmounting those obstacles.

    As he showed during the debate, DeSantis is grounding his coalition on the right by defining himself as an unflagging champion for the party’s most conservative elements. During the debate, the Florida governor’s frequent attacks on Haley, and more infrequent (and oblique) jabs at Trump, both represented variations on the charge that neither rival can be trusted to advance conservative priorities.

    Haley, in mirror image, is grounding her coalition in the party’s center. She has focused on consolidating the centrist GOP voters and donors who have long expressed the most resistance to Trump. That includes moderates, people with at least a four-year college degree, GOP-leaning independents, and suburbanites.

    DeSantis’s vision, in other words, has been to start on the right and over time build toward the center; Haley wants to grow in the opposite direction by locking down the center, and then expanding into the right.

    Supporters of both Haley and DeSantis believe that the other’s approach lowers their ceiling too much to ultimately topple Trump. The problem for all Republicans looking for an alternative to the former president is that last week’s debate offered the latest evidence that each camp may be right about the other’s limitations. With the voting beginning only five weeks from Monday in the Iowa caucus, neither Haley nor DeSantis has found any effective way to loosen Trump’s grip on the party.

    Neither, in fact, has even tried hard to do so. Instead, they have centered their efforts almost entirely on trying to squeeze out the other to become Trump’s principal rival. To beat Trump, or to come close, eventually either of them will need to peel away some of the roughly 60 percent of GOP voters who now say in national polls that they intend to support him for the nomination. But both have behaved as if they can leave that challenge for a later day, while focusing on trying to clear the field to create a one-on-one contest with the front-runner.

    The theory in DeSantis’s camp has been that the only way to beat Trump is to aim directly at his core supporters with a conservative message. DeSantis advisers acknowledge that his positioning has not connected with many centrist voters. But his camp believes that if DeSantis can emerge after the early states as the last viable alternative to Trump, the moderates most resistant to the former president will have no choice but to rally around the Florida governor, even if they consider him too Trump-like himself.

    The voters now drawn to Haley “share a goal in common with Governor DeSantis in that they want an alternative to Trump,” Bob Vander Plaats, a prominent Iowa religious conservative who has endorsed DeSantis, told me. “The more that DeSantis proves there is one alternative to Trump, he will start peeling off that lane as well.” By contrast, Vander Plaats argues, if DeSantis falls out of contention, his support is more likely to flow back to Trump than toward Haley. “I haven’t heard any supporter of DeSantis yet saying: ‘I’m deciding between him and Haley,’” he told me. “Basically, they are between Trump and him.”

    DeSantis’s supporters anticipate that his strategy will pay off if he finishes strongly in Iowa. But so far, his decision to offer voters what amounts to Trumpism without Trump has returned few dividends. With his Trump-like agenda on immigration and foreign policy, and emphasis on culture-war issues such as transgender rights, DeSantis has alienated many of the centrist GOP voters most dubious of the former president while failing to dislodge many of his core supporters.

    “Ron DeSantis should have consolidated the non-Trump wing of the party from the get go and then gone after soft Trump supporters,” Alex Stroman, a former executive director of the South Carolina Republican Party, told me in an email. “Instead, he tried to out-MAGA Trump from the right and alienated not only soft-Trump voters but also the more pragmatic wing of the party. It was a strategic blunder.”

    Haley has filled that vacuum with the elements of the party most skeptical of Trump. Her approach has been to start with the primary voters who like the former president the least, with the hope of eventually attracting more of those ambivalent about him. Her backers believe she has a better chance than DeSantis to reach those “maybe Trump” voters. As the veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres told me, DeSantis “has tried to appeal to some of the ‘always Trump’ voters, but the ‘always Trump’ voters are always Trump for a reason. Nikki Haley seems to have figured out the job is to consolidate the ‘maybe Trump’ voters who supported Trump twice but now … want a different style and different temperament.”

    DeSantis still leads Haley in most national polls, though that may be changing. And he remains even or ahead of her in the polls in Iowa, where he has campaigned relentlessly, won support from most of the state’s Republican leadership (including Governor Kim Reynolds), attracted broad backing in the influential religious-conservative community, and spent heavily on building a grassroots organization.

    But DeSantis is in a much weaker position in the other early states. A recent poll by CNN and the University of New Hampshire found him falling to fourth in the Granite State. That poll found Haley emerging as a clear second to Trump, as did another recent CNN survey in South Carolina. In each state, she attracted about twice as much support as DeSantis did. Polls also consistently show Haley running much better than DeSantis, or Trump, in hypothetical general election match ups against President Joe Biden.

    All of these positive trends largely explain why DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, another GOP contender, attacked Haley at the debate. Haley was right when she suggested that the attention reflected anxiety in DeSantis’s camp about her rise. But that motivation doesn’t necessarily make the attacks any less effective.

    After delivering the most assured performances in the first three GOP debates, Haley seemed wobbly last week as DeSantis and Ramaswamy pummeled her from the right. Dave Wilson, a longtime Republican and social-conservative activist in South Carolina, told me that Haley had not faced that kind of sustained ideological assault from the right during her career in the state. “It hasn’t been used against her in South Carolina,” Wilson said. “Nikki has never been some kind of mainstreamer or a shill for the big corporations. That’s not who she has portrayed herself as, or how she governed, when she was governor of South Carolina.”

    At the debate, Haley never seemed to find solid ground when DeSantis accused her of resisting the hard-line approaches he has championed in Florida on issues affecting transgender people. Haley neither embraced DeSantis’s agenda nor challenged it and instead insisted he was mischaracterizing her own record, without entirely clarifying her views. “Especially on those types of cultural issues, it is probably always going to be advantage DeSantis,” Vander Plaats told me. “I think if you turned down the volume and just [looked at] the physical appearance, Nikki was very concerned at that point, like she knew she was in a tough space, and DeSantis was in a very confident space.”

    Her uneasy response on issues of LGBTQ rights was a stark contrast to the confident course she has set on abortion. One reason Haley has gained favor with more centrist Republicans is that she has so clearly argued that the GOP cannot achieve sweeping federal abortion restrictions and must pursue consensus around more limited goals. “I think Nikki Haley talks about social issues the same way that real people do: not through demagoguery or hysterics like some candidates, but having real policy disagreements while showing compassion for those affected—and I think that’s the winning formula,” Stroman said.

    But at the debate, Haley was unwilling to apply that formula to LGBTQ issues, even as she seemed to seek a more empathetic tone than DeSantis.

    “She has clearly thought through a more moderate, nuanced position on abortion that would have greater appeal in a general election,” Alice Stewart, a longtime GOP strategist who has worked for leading social-conservative candidates, told me. “It appears she has not mapped out her position on other culture-war issues, such as transgender procedures and school bathrooms.”

    Doubling down on his message at the debate, DeSantis’s campaign told me afterward that “within the confines of the Constitution” he would support nationalizing the key laws affecting transgender people that he has passed in Florida, such as banning gender-affirming care for minors. Haley’s campaign still appeared focused mostly on deflecting this argument: In comments to me after the debate, her aides stressed that although DeSantis criticized her for opposing legislation as governor requiring students to use the restroom of the gender they were assigned at birth, he similarly indicated that the issue was not a priority for him not long thereafter, during his first gubernatorial campaign in 2018. Their message was that DeSantis is stressing these issues now merely out of expediency. But in an email exchange with me after the debate, Haley’s campaign drew a clearer distinction with DeSantis than she did during the encounter: rather than national action to impose on every state the restrictions Florida has approved on LGBTQ issues, the campaign said Haley would “encourage states to pass laws” that ban classroom discussion of sexual orientation or regulate bathroom use for transgender kids. The one exception the campaign noted is that, like DeSantis, she would also support national legislation banning transgender girls from competing in school sports.

    The debate drew only a small audience and is unlikely by itself to significantly change the trajectory of the DeSantis and Haley competition. Wilson and Stroman both said they doubt that DeSantis’s ideological attacks will hurt Haley much in the South Carolina primary. “It’s going to be harder in South Carolina than he thinks, because everyone knows what Nikki Haley did in this state,” Wilson said. “Under her leadership, a lot of strong conservative stands were taken.”

    But, of course, GOP voters don’t know nearly as much about Haley in the cascade of states that will vote in early March, after South Carolina. DeSantis supporters view her unsteady response to his ideological assault at the debate as validation of their belief that Haley can never attract enough conservative voters to genuinely threaten Trump. “There’s just no path for her to win the nomination,” Vander Plaats argued. “That lane doesn’t exist.”

    The path for any alternative to beat Trump is a rocky one, but it’s premature to assume that Haley cannot outlast DeSantis to become the last viable challenger to the former president. She still has time to formulate better responses to the charge that she’s insufficiently conservative for the Trump-era GOP. Portraying Haley as too squishy in the culture war might help her in New Hampshire, the state where she’s hoping to emerge as Trump’s principal rival.

    But the debate underscored her need to sharpen her answers on those issues as the race moves on. And for Haley’s supporters, it raised an ominous question: If she couldn’t respond more effectively to an attack on her conservative credentials from DeSantis and Ramaswamy, how would she hold up if she ever becomes enough of a threat for Donald Trump to press that case himself?

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    Ronald Brownstein

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  • David Cameron is living his best life — while Boris Johnson squirms

    David Cameron is living his best life — while Boris Johnson squirms

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    LONDON — As David Cameron heads to Washington this week for his first big speech back on the world stage, his bête noire Boris Johnson will be sat in a dingy room in west London.

    Johnson is to give two days of televised testimony before Britain’s COVID-19 inquiry, answering a barrage of questions under oath about decisions he took while prime minister in 2020 and 2021 which — many believe — cost thousands of people their lives.

    As Johnson battles to salvage his battered reputation, Cameron will be strutting through America in a ministerial motorcade, glad-handing Washington’s power players and preparing to address the Aspen Security Forum as U.K. foreign secretary.

    It’s a stark symbol of just how quickly the political sands can shift.

    Cameron had long been written out of the British political scene, famously retreating to a hut in his garden to write his memoirs after calling — and losing — the divisive Brexit referendum in 2016. Johnson — an old acquaintance from his school days — had fought on the opposite side, and his star rose rapidly after the referendum victory. As Cameron licked his wounds, Johnson became foreign secretary in 2016 and then prime minister — with the landslide majority Cameron also craved — three years later.

    But with Johnson now long gone and Cameron handed a dramatic ministerial comeback — along with a seat in the House of Lords — in Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Cabinet reshuffle last month, the two men’s fate has come full circle.

    And former colleagues say Cameron is making no secret of his delight at the turn of events, frequently texting associates to say how much he is enjoying the new gig. 

    Despite now having the run of the palatial Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office — known as the grandest building on Whitehall — Cameron has also been awarded two large private rooms in the House of Lords, displacing Conservative colleagues in the process. 

    Some friends believe he’s having more fun than when he was actually running the country.

    “He has got the bits of the job he enjoyed, he has shed the bits he didn’t. It is the perfect semi-retirement job for him,” a former No. 10 adviser who worked for Cameron said. (The adviser was granted anonymity, like others in this article, to speak candidly about private interactions with the foreign secretary)

    “All prime ministers like being on the world stage. It allows them to grapple with big issues,” a second former No. 10 adviser who worked closely with Cameron said. 

    Cameron’s closest political ally, his ex-Chancellor George Osborne, says his friend’s return will have fulfilled the “strong element of public service” in the ex-prime minister, which he claimed has “always been part of his DNA.”

    Cameron’s closest political ally, his ex-Chancellor George Osborne (left), says his friend’s return will have fulfilled the “strong element of public service” in the ex-PM | Pool photo by Petar Kujundzic via Getty Images

    “It’s like the sound of the trumpet. Back on … the political playing field, and serving your country. He’s doing it because above all he thinks he can make a difference,” Osborne said on a recent podcast.

    Others are less impressed.

    One Whitehall official, while acknowledging the diplomatic advantages of having a former PM in post, described Cameron’s appointment as “failing upward, writ large.”

    Cameron’s peerage means MPs cannot quiz him in the House of Commons like other ministers, another fact which rankles with opponents.

    “Once again Cameron is jetsetting around the globe with seemingly no accountability to the British public,” Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokesperson Layla Moran said. 

    “We have very little idea whom this unelected foreign secretary is meeting and what he is saying. Maybe if he spent as much time — or indeed any time at all — making himself available for scrutiny from MPs, we would understand exactly what his foreign policy priorities are.”

    Back on the world stage

    On his first visit to the U.S. since becoming foreign secretary on Wednesday, Cameron will meet key members of the Biden administration, including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, as well as Republican and Democratic Congressional figures in an effort to shore up support for Ukraine. 

    Cameron’s appointment has certainly made diplomats in foreign capitals sit up and take notice, if only because his is a familiar name in the hard-to-follow soap opera of British politics. 

    Even in the U.S., his appointment triggered some excitement. As one U.K. official put it, “Americans have a sort of respect for former office-bearers in a way that Brits don’t.”

    An EU diplomat said that despite having “gambled” on the Brexit referendum, Cameron is still well thought of in Brussels.

    Cameron will certainly feel at home, having relished life on the world stage as prime minister, according to multiple advisers who worked with him at the time. 

    “You get the idiosyncrasies of different leaders and he enjoyed that. He has a good sense of humor,” the second former adviser quoted above said. The aide recounted how a Nigerian president had once left a soap opera playing on TV throughout his meeting with the British prime minister. “[Cameron] came out laughing. He could roll with the weird and wonderful.”

    With Johnson now long gone and Cameron handed a dramatic ministerial comeback in Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Cabinet reshuffle last month, the two men’s fate has come full circle | Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

    Predictably, Cameron has slipped back easily into government — perhaps a little too easily, according to the Whitehall official quoted above who said he had to be reminded he needed clearance before texting friendly hellos to former acquaintances from foreign powers. 

    The same person said he was demanding fast, detailed briefings at a rate more associated with No. 10, and has sometimes sent papers back asking for a more creative approach. They pointed out his only previous job in government had been as prime minister, which influences his way of working. 

    Green with envy

    The notoriously competitive Cameron also won’t be displeased by the reaction to his appointment by his political peers. 

    Arch-rival and former school frenemy Johnson, who was ousted from office in 2022 over his handling of various personal scandals, couldn’t help but mock Cameron’s return, describing it as “great news for retreads everywhere.”

    Osborne, Cameron’s closest political friend, admitted to being “a little bit jealous, but in a good way,” after he returned. 

    “There’s a little bit of me that goes ‘I’d fancy being foreign secretary,’” Osborne admitted, before insisting: “But I’m very happy with what I’m doing with the rest of my life, and I think it probably keeps me sane.”

    Even the man who appointed Cameron — Sunak — may start to envy Cameron’s ability to detach from the day-to-day management of a fractious Conservative Party, something he endured throughout his own premiership from 2010-2016. 

    Two government officials said Cameron was essentially “prime minister of foreign affairs,” leaving Sunak to fix his attention on a raft of nightmarish domestic problems in the run-up to the next election, which he is expected to lose.

    “[Cameron] can really dedicate himself in a way he never could as PM, because you’re on the plane back and you’ve got to deal with Mark Pritchard and circus tent animals, or whatever else there is when you are prime minister,” a third former adviser said, referencing a furor over a Tory backbench rebellion on banning circus animals. 

    Adrenaline rush

    Life will certainly be different from the past seven years. Shortly after his appointment last month, Cameron told peers the Chippy Larder food project — where he volunteered for two years during his political retirement — would have to manage without him for a while.

    “There’s an element of it being quite hard to replay that adrenaline rush [of being PM], the pace of what you do,” the second former adviser quoted above said, noting Cameron had quit before he was 50 and had been “at the peak of his abilities.”

    “It’s a shot of redemption,” the third former adviser added. “He’s got another chance at it — and this one probably isn’t going to end in his failure.”

    Jon Stone contributed reporting

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    Annabelle Dickson and Esther Webber

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  • PolitiFact – Trump claims he made peace in the Middle East with Abraham Accords. That’s False

    PolitiFact – Trump claims he made peace in the Middle East with Abraham Accords. That’s False

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    As the Israel-Hamas war continues, Donald Trump, who is campaigning for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, said that when he was president, he brokered a deal to protect Israel.

    “With the historic Abraham Accords, I even made peace in the Middle East, we’re gonna have peace in the Middle East,” Trump said at a Dec. 2 rally in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. “So, for four straight years, I kept America safe. I kept Israel safe.”

    Trump has repeatedly said this since Hamas attacked Israel Oct. 7.

    The Abraham Accords normalized diplomatic relations between Israel and some Arab countries in 2020, but did not achieve peace across the Middle East. Many experts told us that the Palestinians felt that the agreements bypassed them and inflamed their relationship with Israel.

    “In reality, the accords simply elevated and formalized relations between countries that already maintained backchannel ties,” said Omar H. Rahman, a U.S.-based research fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, a think tank in Qatar. “Moreover, none of the parties to the Abraham Accords were ever engaged in military conflict against each other, so framing normalization as peace is a gross misrepresentation of what the agreements actually achieved.”

    Abraham Accords did not address the Palestinian-Israeli conflict

    In 2020, leaders of Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco signed the Abraham Accords. The countries agreed to peace and cooperation with Israel, establishing embassies in one another’s countries, preventing hostile activities and fostering tourism and trade cooperation.

    A Trump campaign spokesperson cited a statement from the Embassy of the United Arab Emirates, which praised the accords as a tool to achieve prosperity and stability in the region. The UAE described the accords as a “historic normalization agreement” and its relationship with Israel as a “warm peace.”

    In 2020, Trump said the agreements would “serve as the foundation for a comprehensive peace across the entire region.”

    Some experts from the outset said that Trump’s statement was overblown or that the accords did not amount to Middle East peace. Coinciding with the signing, Gaza fired rockets toward Israel and Israel fired back.

    Steven Cook, an expert on U.S.-Middle East policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in 2020 that the accords were not a peace treaty because Israel and the United Arab Emirates were not at war.

    The agreements established cooperation among Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, and Trump deserves credit for that, said Aaron David Miller, a former adviser to Republican and Democratic secretaries of state on Palestinian-Israeli negotiations who is now a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

    But Hamas’ attacks on Israel “demonstrated with terrifying clarity, peace in the Middle East between Israel and all of its neighbors is still a very distant goal,” Miller said. 

    Each of the Arab nations involved in the Abraham Accords signed for its own reasons, said Gerald M. Feierstein, a U.S. ambassador to Yemen under President Barack Obama and a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, a nonprofit, Washington, D.C.-based think tank. 

    For Bahrain and the UAE, ties to Israel strengthened their security in relation to Iran. Arab countries also hoped for economic benefit through trade and investment ties to Israel’s high-tech economy. The UAE wanted access to advanced U.S. military equipment, the F-35 fighter jet and MQ-9 Reaper drones. Morocco sought and received U.S. recognition of its sovereignty in the western Sahara. 

    Accords did not bring peace between Israelis and Palestinians

    Trump told Fox News’ “Fox and Friends” in 2020 that “certainly a piece” of the accords was to pressure Palestinians into peace negotiations with Israel.

    That strategy failed.

    “The Abraham Accords did not achieve peace in the Middle East or help resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” said Osamah Khalil, a historian of U.S. foreign relations and the modern Middle East at Syracuse University. 

    Trump’s actions sidelined Palestinians, including his decision to eliminate funding for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees.

    The accords did not resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and emboldened Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plans to annex the occupied West Bank, Khalil said.

    Guy Ziv, associate director at the Center for Israel Studies at American University, said that “the Palestinians were sidelined throughout the Trump era.”

    The Arab-Israeli conflict retains three major conflictual relationships: Israel-Lebanon (and especially Israel-Hezbollah), Israeli-Palestinian and Israel-Syria, said Jeremy Pressman, Middle East studies director at the University of Connecticut.

    “None of these three conflicts improved as a result of the Abraham Accords,” Pressman said. 

    The Abraham Accords remain in effect under Biden. 

    Our ruling

    Trump said “with the historic Abraham Accords, I even made peace in the Middle East.”

    The accords, signed among Israel and a few Arab countries in 2020, established cooperation, but the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco were not at war with Israel. The accords bypassed several conflicts, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

    Trump did not achieve peace across the entire region.

    We rate this statement False.

    RELATED: All of our claims about Israel and Gaza 

    RELATED: More than 900 fact-checks of Donald Trump

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  • Pentagon reports U.S. warship, commercial ships encounter Houthi drones in Red Sea

    Pentagon reports U.S. warship, commercial ships encounter Houthi drones in Red Sea

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    The U.S. Navy destroyer USS Carney (DDG 64) sets sail in the Bosphorus in Istanbul, Turkey, July 14, 2019.

    Yoruk Isik | Reuters

    A U.S. naval ship shot down several Houthi drones after commercial vessels were attacked in the Red Sea, the Pentagon reported on Sunday, the same day Yemen’s Houthi rebel group said it had targeted two Israeli ships there.

    “We’re aware of reports regarding attacks on the USS Carney and commercial vessels in the Red Sea and will provide information as it becomes available,” the Pentagon said in a statement.

    Later in the day, a National Security Council official said that preliminary assessments of the situation show that only the commercial ships, not the Carney, were targeted.

    The attacks on took place over several hours and are believed to have come from Houthi missiles, according to defense officials, which would represent an escalation of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.

    The Carney, a U.S. naval destroyer, observed a ballistic missile fired at a civilian commercial ship named the “Unity Explorer” and then responded to distress reports from the vessel. As it assisted the Unity Explorer, the Carney destroyed another Houthi drone headed towards itself and the Unity Explorer.

    The Iran-backed Houthi group said in a statement on Sunday it had launched missile and drone attacks against two ships it believed were connected to Israel in the Red Sea’s Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, also known as the Gate of Tears.

    The Houthi statement didn’t mention any attacks on U.S. ships, only the “Unity Explorer” and the “Number Nine,” both of which the group said are associated with Israel.

    “The Yemeni armed forces continue to prevent Israeli ships from navigating the Red and Arab Seas until the Israeli aggression against our steadfast brothers in the Gaza Strip stops,” the Houthis said.

    Yemen’s military has previously warned that all Israeli ships or any entities connected to Israel will be a “legitimate target” for attack until the war in Gaza end. In November, the group said it had captured an Israeli ship.

    WATCH: Israel resumes its offensive in Gaza

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  • Henry Kissinger, America’s Most Notorious War Criminal, Dies At 100

    Henry Kissinger, America’s Most Notorious War Criminal, Dies At 100

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    Secretary of State Henry Kissinger speaks to State Department employees on Sept. 28, 1973. Kissinger urged them to seize what he described as unparalleled opportunity to bring about a peaceful international structure. The speech came just two weeks after Kissinger and the U.S. backed a military coup in Chile that established a brutal dictatorship that is estimated to have left 3,000 people dead or tortured and 40,000 more missing.

    Henry Kissinger — who as a top American foreign policy official oversaw, overlooked and at times actively perpetrated some of the most grotesque war crimes the United States and its allies have committed — died Wednesday at his home in Connecticut. He was 100 years old.

    Kissinger’s death was announced by his consulting firm on Wednesday evening. No cause of death was immediately given.

    Kissinger served as secretary of state and national security adviser under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, positions that allowed him to direct the Vietnam War and the broader Cold War with the Soviet Union, and to implement a stridently “realist” approach that prioritized U.S. interests and domestic political success over any potential atrocity that might occur. 

    The former led to perhaps the most infamous crime Kissinger committed: a secret four-year bombing campaign in Cambodia that killed an untold number of civilians, despite the fact that it was a neutral nation with which the United States was not at war. 

    During his time in charge of the American foreign policy machine, Kissinger also directed illegal arms sales to Pakistan as it carried out a brutal crackdown on its Bengali population in 1971. He supported the 1973 military coup that overthrew a democratically elected socialist government in Chile, gave the go-ahead to Indonesia’s 1975 invasion of East Timor, and backed Argentina’s repressive military dictatorship as it launched its “dirty war” against dissenters and leftists in 1976. His policies during the Ford administration also fueled civil wars in Africa, most notably in Angola. 

    Even the most generous calculations suggest that the murderous regimes Kissinger supported and the conflicts they waged were responsible for millions of deaths and millions of other human rights abuses, during and after the eight years he served in the American government.

    Kissinger never showed remorse for those misdeeds. He never paid any real price for them either. He maintained a mocking tone toward critics of his human rights record throughout his life, and remained a member in good standing of elite Washington political society until his death. 

    In May 2016, for instance, President Barack Obama came as close as the United States ever does to apologizing for its role in a human rights atrocity during a visit to Argentina. The U.S. “has to examine its own policies as well, and its own past,” Obama said, in an expression of regret for the United States’ role in the “dirty war.” “We’ve been slow to speak out for human rights, and that was the case here.” He pledged to declassify thousands of documents related to the dictatorship’s reign of terror and U.S. support for it.

    The examination must have been quick. Two months later, the Obama administration handed Kissinger, who those documents showed had cozied up to Argentine military dictator Jorge Rafael Videla in the 1970s, the Distinguished Public Service Award, the highest honor the Pentagon offers civilians. 

    Kissinger’s acolytes argue that honors like these are more than deserved. His accomplishments, including an opening of relations with China and detente with the Soviet Union, outweigh any abuses that helped make them possible. At the very least, they posit, the abuses were part of a cold calculation that “ensuring a nation’s survival sometimes leaves tragically little room for private morality,” as Robert D. Kaplan argued in 2013. Kissinger’s defenders suggest that even more death may have occurred if the U.S. had pursued a more morally grounded foreign policy instead.

    His critics have made persuasive cases in numerous books, documentaries and publications that Kissinger was not just a war criminal but responsible for the creation of an imperial foreign policy that eventually embroiled the U.S. in a state of perpetual war and led it to commit and overlook numerous abuses of human rights in the decades after he left power.

    Kissinger (center) remained a member in good standing of the Washington political, press and societal elite throughout his life, even among leaders like President Barack Obama (left), who criticized the human rights abuses that took place on his watch.Kissinger (center) remained a member in good standing of the Washington political, press and societal elite throughout his life, even among leaders like President Barack Obama (left), who criticized the human rights abuses that took place on his watch.

    Kissinger (center) remained a member in good standing of the Washington political, press and societal elite throughout his life, even among leaders like President Barack Obama (left), who criticized the human rights abuses that took place on his watch.

    Kissinger (center) remained a member in good standing of the Washington political, press and societal elite throughout his life, even among leaders like President Barack Obama (left), who criticized the human rights abuses that took place on his watch.

    Still others have argued that Kissinger was, in the words of New Yorker essayist Thomas Meaney, “a far less remarkable figure than his supporters, his critics — and he himself — believed.” Rather than an outlier, Meaney and others have suggested, Kissinger was a consummate political actor and a natural product of the American war machine, if one who had an outsize sense of self-importance even compared with many of the supposedly “great men” who’ve led the country before and after him.

    Settling on an ultimate legacy for Kissinger is an enticing task — one historians, foreign policy experts and journalists have sought to perfect for decades. It is a pertinent endeavor, too, for determining if Kissinger’s war crimes made him a particularly evil figure, or if they reveal that it is simply impossible to steer an empire the size of the United States for so long without doing some heinous things. Maybe both can be true.

    What is undeniable, on the occasion of his death, is that millions of Argentinians, Bangladeshis, Cambodians, Chileans, East Timorese and others cannot offer their opinion on Henry Kissinger’s legacy or the world he helped create, because they died at the hands of the tyrants Kissinger enabled.

    ***

    Born Heinz Alfred Kissinger in Bavaria in 1923, Kissinger and his family immigrated to the United States in 1938 to flee Nazi persecution of German Jews.

    Kissinger forever downplayed the effect that had on his life, but historians have argued differently: Kissinger’s experience as a child likely shaped his “legendary insecurity, paranoia and extreme sensitivity to criticism” and planted the seeds of his “emphasis on stability and equilibrium, and his fears about revolution and disorder,” Thomas A. Schwartz, a Vanderbilt University historian, wrote in his biography of Kissinger in 2020. That Kissinger’s father, a teacher who was fired for being Jewish, lost everything, Schwartz continued, “contributed to Kissinger’s own sense that not only do the meek not inherit the earth, but that power is the ultimate arbiter in both life and international relations.”

    Or, as a longtime Kissinger colleague put it in another quote Schwartz relayed: “Kissinger’s philosophy of life was that ‘good will won’t help you defend yourself on the docks of Marseilles.’”

    Drafted into the U.S. Army in 1943, Kissinger served in Germany during World War II and became an accomplished intelligence agent. He earned a Bronze Star in part for his success in hunting down members of the Gestapo, the Nazis’ secret police force, in the immediate aftermath of the war. 

    After returning to the U.S. and graduating from Harvard, he fast-tracked his way to foreign policy influence, initially gaining fame within the establishment by arguing that President Dwight D. Eisenhower needed to accept that “limited nuclear war” in Europe might be necessary to protect the U.S. and its allies from the emerging power of the Soviet Union.

    President Richard Nixon (left) and Kissinger, as national security adviser, talk together in Washington on Nov. 25, 1972.President Richard Nixon (left) and Kissinger, as national security adviser, talk together in Washington on Nov. 25, 1972.

    President Richard Nixon (left) and Kissinger, as national security adviser, talk together in Washington on Nov. 25, 1972.

    President Richard Nixon (left) and Kissinger, as national security adviser, talk together in Washington on Nov. 25, 1972.

    Kissinger’s rapid ascent up the foreign policy ladder was also possible because he was such a skilled political operator, Schwartz argued. He offered diplomatic and foreign policy advice to both Eisenhower, a Republican, and to President John F. Kennedy, a Democrat. 

    He advised former New York Gov. Nelson Rockefeller in three separate bids for the presidency. But when Rockefeller failed to win the GOP nomination in 1968, Kissinger maintained positive relations with both Richard Nixon, the Republican candidate, and Democrat Hubert H. Humphrey throughout the general election. It was almost a given in Washington that Kissinger would assume a prominent role in the next administration, no matter the outcome.

    Nixon prevailed and made Kissinger his first major foreign policy appointment, naming him White House national security adviser. Kissinger, like Nixon, was an ardent skeptic of bureaucrats he believed were too idealistic and moralistic in their approach to the Vietnam War and Soviet communism, and early in his tenure reshaped the White House National Security Council into its modern form in order to “tame the bureaucracy” and foster “a more centralized and secretive approach to foreign policy,” Schwartz wrote.

    It would come in handy. Kissinger may have sought out the status he earned as a celebrity diplomat, and he sensed the importance of public opinion to an administration’s ability to exercise its foreign policy. But he preferred to do his dirtiest work in secret, away from the potentially scornful eyes of State Department diplomats, Congress, journalists or the public.

    Kissinger personally ‘approved each of the 3,875 Cambodia bombing raids’ that occurred between 1969 and 1970.

    In the spring of 1969, desperate to bring an end to the Vietnam War, Kissinger authorized one of its most horrific chapters: the secret carpet-bombing campaign in Cambodia. The theory was that it would force North Vietnam to accept improved U.S. conditions for ending the war, an early use of a “bombs as an instrument of diplomacy” approach, as Yale historian and fierce Kissinger critic Greg Grandin has described it, that has become a hallmark of U.S. foreign policy.

    From 1969 to 1973, when a Congress that had been largely kept in the dark about the Cambodian campaign moved to halt it, the United States dropped a half-million tons of bombs on the neutral country. Kissinger personally “approved each of the 3,875 Cambodia bombing raids” that occurred between 1969 and 1970, according to a Pentagon report released later.

    The bombing campaign ultimately killed between 150,000 and a half-million Cambodian civilians, various estimates suggest. It also helped unleash a civil war inside Cambodia that led to the rise of the Khmer Rouge and Pol Pot, a dictator whose regime killed as many as 2 million Cambodians, according to modern appraisals.

    The Cambodian landscape in 1968 shows the damage inflicted by B-52 bombing there.The Cambodian landscape in 1968 shows the damage inflicted by B-52 bombing there.

    The Cambodian landscape in 1968 shows the damage inflicted by B-52 bombing there.

    The Cambodian landscape in 1968 shows the damage inflicted by B-52 bombing there.

    Kissinger and the U.S. negotiated the Paris Peace Accords with North Vietnam in 1973, paving the way for the war’s end. It earned Kissinger a Nobel Peace Prize. Two prize committee members resigned in response.

    That was the second of his major accomplishments. The year prior, he had helped Nixon reestablish diplomatic relations with China, which both Kissinger and Nixon saw as crucial to deepening a divide between it and the Soviet Union, the world’s two largest communist powers.

    The two episodes define Kissinger’s career and how it has been interpreted. They made him a superstar within the Nixon administration and the American foreign policy establishment. The accomplishments they paved the way for — including major arms limitation treaties with the Soviet Union and the full restoration of diplomatic recognition with China — are still cited as lasting Kissinger victories.

    They also came at an incredible human cost that was a direct result of Kissinger’s desperation to achieve them. Much like the end of the Vietnam War had been, the opening of relations with China was directly preceded by an atrocity the United States broadly ignored: the 1971 Pakistani killings of at least 500,00 people in present-day Bangladesh, then known as East Pakistan. 

    Focused on Beijing, Nixon and Kissinger did not merely look the other way when what was then known as West Pakistan launched an aggressive campaign against East Pakistan. Kissinger and Nixon saw West Pakistan as a crucial ally against the Soviets and a “gateway to open diplomatic relations with China.” In an effort to keep that door open, the Nixon administration largely refused to condemn West Pakistan’s efforts to repress Bengalis in the east, and even authorized potentially illegal arms shipments to West Pakistan.

    Bengali forces, with support from India, eventually forced the Pakistanis to surrender,leading to the creation of independent Bangladesh — but not before Pakistani armed forces and other allied militant groups killed as many as 3 million people and raped some 400,000 women, according to modern estimates. The crisis forced millions of others to flee the country.

    To Kissinger, it mattered little. In 1971, the Pakistanis helped shuttle him into China for a secret visit that helped pave the way for Nixon’s eventual trip to Shanghai.

    “Not one has yet understood what we did in India-Pakistan and how we saved the China option which we need for the bloody Russians,” Kissinger said to Nixon in 1972, according to reports from the Press Trust of India based on memos that were declassified decades later. “Why should we give a damn about Bangladesh?”

    ***

    Declassified memos and notes have made clear that Kissinger rarely missed a chance to take a similarly cavalier approach to human rights and democracy as his career progressed.

    After Chileans elected socialist President Salvador Allende in 1970, Kissinger and Nixon almost immediately began plotting the overthrow of his government. The Chilean military carried out a coup in 1973, and Gen. Augusto Pinochet established a murderous dictatorship that killed an estimated 3,000 supposed dissidents and tortured as many as 40,000 more, according to a national truth commission established after Chile’s return to democracy in 1990. 

    Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet, an Army general, took power in a U.S.-supported coup in 1973 and embarked on a brutal reign of tyranny. Kissinger knew of the abuses and murders that took place on Pinochet's watch but regarded him as a defense against communism even as his contemporaries in the State Department criticized his approach.Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet, an Army general, took power in a U.S.-supported coup in 1973 and embarked on a brutal reign of tyranny. Kissinger knew of the abuses and murders that took place on Pinochet's watch but regarded him as a defense against communism even as his contemporaries in the State Department criticized his approach.

    Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet, an Army general, took power in a U.S.-supported coup in 1973 and embarked on a brutal reign of tyranny. Kissinger knew of the abuses and murders that took place on Pinochet’s watch but regarded him as a defense against communism even as his contemporaries in the State Department criticized his approach.

    Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet, an Army general, took power in a U.S.-supported coup in 1973 and embarked on a brutal reign of tyranny. Kissinger knew of the abuses and murders that took place on Pinochet’s watch but regarded him as a defense against communism even as his contemporaries in the State Department criticized his approach.

    Ever disdainful of what he saw as moralistic bureaucrats, Kissinger mocked the concerns State Department officials expressed about the dictatorship’s abuses.

    “I read the briefing paper for this meeting and it was nothing but Human Rights,” he told a U.S. official about Chile in 1973, according to records obtained by the National Security Archive, a nonprofit library of public records and declassified documents. “The State Department is made up of people who have a vocation for the ministry. Because there are not enough churches for them, they went into the Department of State.”

    Kissinger, who became secretary of state just a month after Pinochet’s coup, told State Department officials in October 1973 that the United States should not position itself as a defender of the military regime’s human rights abuses. But U.S. policy, he explained, was that “no matter how unpleasant they act, the [Pinochet] government is better for us than Allende was.”

    Three years later, he told Pinochet in an official meeting that the Chilean dictatorship had become the victim of international propaganda efforts that had distorted its human rights record, according to declassified documents that notably were not shared with a U.S. Senate select committee that investigated covert American actions in the Chilean coup.

    Top left: The Chilean presidential palace La Moneda under fire during the coup led by Pinochet in Santiago in 1973. Top right: Aides and others involved with the presidency of Salvador Allende are guarded by soldiers outside La Moneda. Bottom left: Chilean soldiers take cover behind a tank from fire by Allende's bodyguards during the ground attack. Bottom right: Soldiers supporting the coup take cover as bombs are dropped on the presidential palace.Top left: The Chilean presidential palace La Moneda under fire during the coup led by Pinochet in Santiago in 1973. Top right: Aides and others involved with the presidency of Salvador Allende are guarded by soldiers outside La Moneda. Bottom left: Chilean soldiers take cover behind a tank from fire by Allende's bodyguards during the ground attack. Bottom right: Soldiers supporting the coup take cover as bombs are dropped on the presidential palace.

    Top left: The Chilean presidential palace La Moneda under fire during the coup led by Pinochet in Santiago in 1973. Top right: Aides and others involved with the presidency of Salvador Allende are guarded by soldiers outside La Moneda. Bottom left: Chilean soldiers take cover behind a tank from fire by Allende’s bodyguards during the ground attack. Bottom right: Soldiers supporting the coup take cover as bombs are dropped on the presidential palace.

    “My evaluation is that you are a victim of all left-wing groups around the world and that your greatest sin was that you overthrew a government that was going Communist,” he told the Chilean.

    In December 1975, Kissinger and Ford flew to Indonesia to meet with Suharto, a military dictator who took control of the country after the overthrow of Sukarno, an Indonesian nationalist, in 1967. At the time, Suharto was considering an invasion of neighboring East Timor, which was seeking independence.The U.S. and Suharto feared the independence effort could lead to an anti-colonialist government sympathetic to the Soviets.

    Suharto launched the invasion not long after Kissinger and Ford returned to the United States, and declassified memos have shown that he did so “knowing that he had the full approval of the White House.”

    “It is important that whatever you do succeeds quickly,” Kissinger told Suharto, according to declassified memos obtained by the National Security Archive. “It would be better,” he continued, “if it occurred” after he and Ford had returned to the United States.

    Indonesian forces proceeded to carry out what some historians now regard as a genocide of East Timorese populations — some estimates suggest they murdered 2,000 people in the initial days of the invasion alone. A truth and reconciliation committee later suggested that between 100,000 and 200,000 East Timorese people died throughout the conflict and the resulting Indonesian occupation of the island, which lasted until 1999. 

    Our government has failed to denounce the suppression of democracy. Our government has failed to denounce atrocities.Arthur Blood, then-U.S. consul general to East Pakistan, in a 1971 memo

    Near the end of his time as secretary of state, Kissinger relayed similar messages to Argentina’s military dictatorship, which overthrew its government in 1976. In a meeting that year, Kissinger told the country’s foreign minister to “get the terrorist problem” — by which he meant dissenters against the new dictatorship — “over as quickly as possible,” according to memos declassified in 2002 and obtained by the National Security Archive. The Argentine left the meeting convinced the U.S. had greenlighted its “dirty war” and that Kissinger considered the elimination of dissenters far more important than human rights.

    The same year, Kissinger visited Brazil and showered praise on the country’s military dictatorship, which had come to power in a coup in 1964, before Kissinger entered government. By then, though, it was well known that the regime was in the midst of its most brutal period of repression. In 2014, the country’s national truth commission found that the dictatorship killed at least 434 political dissidents and tortureding thousands more. 

    Kissinger’s sympathy for tyrants continued after he left the government in 1977. Kissinger attended the 1978 World Cup in Argentina as a special guest of Videla, the dictator, and lauded the regime for its success in “wiping out” its opponents, documents declassified in 2016 showed.

    At the time, a State Department official expressed concern that the Argentines “may use Kissinger’s laudatory statements as justification for hardening their human rights stance.” Indeed, the dictatorship, which was fond of throwing dissenters out of helicopters and into the sea, eventually disappeared as many as 30,000 people.

    After serving as national security adviser under Nixon, Kissinger became secretary of state under President Gerald Ford.After serving as national security adviser under Nixon, Kissinger became secretary of state under President Gerald Ford.

    After serving as national security adviser under Nixon, Kissinger became secretary of state under President Gerald Ford.

    After serving as national security adviser under Nixon, Kissinger became secretary of state under President Gerald Ford.

    There is no doubt that Kissinger knew these many abuses were taking place throughout his career.

    In 1971, Archer Blood, the U.S. consul general in East Pakistan, wrote a memo detailing Pakistani atrocities in Bangladesh, telling his superiors that Pakistan was “systematically eliminating” Bangladeshis “by seeking them out and shooting them down.” A month later, he authored another telegram accusing the U.S. of displaying “moral bankruptcy” for refusing to condemn or attempt to limit the violent crackdowns on East Pakistan. “Our government has failed to denounce the suppression of democracy. Our government has failed to denounce atrocities,” the telegram said.

    Not long after Blood sent the memo about Pakistan, Kissinger and Nixon reassigned him to a diplomatic post in Washington.

    As Kissinger plotted an overthrow of Allende’s government in Chile, a National Security Council official warned that it was “patently a violation of our own principles and policy tenets.” But the warnings did nothing to stop Kissinger from fomenting coups and singing the praises of those who committed atrocities.

    Kissinger believed these atrocities were worth it, both to stop the spread of Soviet communism and to bolster American interests and credibility in the world.

    Former President George H.W. Bush, who served as ambassador to the United Nations under Nixon, described Kissinger as paranoid, according to Princeton historian and Kissinger critic Greg Bass, and this paranoia about communism appeared repeatedly during his career.

    Kissinger saw Allende’s election in Chile as evidence of the unstoppable march of Marxism that might overtake the world if the U.S. didn’t act to stop it, and the Pinochet regime’s abuses as merely a necessary price to pay to stop it.

    In 1973, he asked a top Latin America official at the State Department whether Pinochet’s human rights violations were “that much worse than in other countries in Latin America.” When the official told him they were, he said only that cutting off military aid would have “very serious” consequences.

    Kissinger did not believe that American foreign policy could be successful if it let morality overtake pragmatism and self-interest. Moral outcomes, he argued, came from the advance of human freedom, and he believed his actions achieved that.

    “A country that demands moral perfection of itself as a test of its foreign policy will achieve neither perfection nor security,” Kissinger wrote in his 1994 book, “Diplomacy.”

    He also despised armchair quarterbacks. Governing, he posited, is difficult, and doesn’t allow for the luxury of hindsight that academics and his critics enjoy.

    “The analyst runs no risk. If his conclusions prove wrong, he can write another treatise,” he wrote in “Diplomacy.” “The statesman is permitted only one guess; his mistakes are irretrievable.”

    Kissinger’s defenders argue that his critics now treat “the West’s victory” in the Cold War “as a foregone conclusion,” and that across the world, “revolutionary nihilists” were busy massacring people too. But these are convenient excuses for many of the atrocities Kissinger tolerated or authorized, and they ignore that many of Kissinger’s contemporaries often saw clear paranoia and fault in his actions well in advance.

    “Is Allende a mortal threat to the U.S.?” Viron Vaky, the NSC official who criticized Kissinger’s efforts to foment a coup in Santiago, asked in a 1970 memo that was later obtained by the National Security Archive. “It is hard to argue this.”

    ***

    In 2003, the film director Errol Morris released “The Fog of War,” a documentary featuring former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert McNamara, who oversaw much of the Vietnam War. The film centered McNamara detailing lessons he had learned from the experience as he sought to make peace with the “immense moral burden of his actions” in Vietnam, as The New Yorker’s Jon Lee Anderson wrote in 2016.

    Kissinger never engaged in any such reflection. Instead, he continued to peddle lies about his actions, including an absurd suggestion, in 2014, that U.S. drone warfare had resulted in more deaths than the Cambodian bombing campaign.

    “Unlike Robert McNamara, Kissinger has shown little in the way of a conscience,” Anderson wrote. (Kissinger, as Anderson noted, in fact mocked McNamara for espousing regret in the film.) “And because of that, it seems highly likely, history will not easily absolve him.”

    Washington, however, spent the final decades of Kissinger’s life doing exactly that.

    Kissinger served as an informal adviser to numerous presidents, secretaries of state and foreign policy heavyweights even after he left the government. He was welcome at Washington’s swankiest dinner parties, feted by leaders of both major political parties and large think tanks, and given generous platforms to offer his advice and perspective on American military crusades in the pages of the country’s most prominent newspapers and on the airwaves of its biggest TV and radio networks.

    Kissinger with President George W. Bush, who leaned on the former official as an informal adviser throughout the administration's global Kissinger with President George W. Bush, who leaned on the former official as an informal adviser throughout the administration's global

    Kissinger with President George W. Bush, who leaned on the former official as an informal adviser throughout the administration’s global

    Kissinger with President George W. Bush, who leaned on the former official as an informal adviser throughout the administration’s global “war on terror.” Kissinger was an ardent supporter of the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

    He used those platforms to, among other things, cheerlead for war in Iraq: In 2002, a year before the U.S. invaded, he called for regime change in Baghdad. Kissinger served as an “informal adviser,” as historian Grandin described it, to President George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and top aide Karl Rove throughout that war, during which as many as 200,000 Iraqi civilians may have died, according to estimates, and the U.S. amassed a litany of new human rights abuses to add to its record.

    Kissinger’s sense of bipartisanship never faltered. Hillary Clinton leaned on him for advice as secretary of state and called him a friend. Samantha Power, who served as Obama’s ambassador to the United Nations, often criticized Kissinger and argued that human rights should play a much more prominent role in American foreign policy. Yet in 2014, she attended a Yankees-Red Sox game with Kissinger, and two years later accepted an award named for him. The Obama administration leaned on the bombing of Cambodia as the legal justification for its drone wars, including the targeted killings of American citizens abroad. 

    That his influence never waned makes it easy to see Kissinger’s fingerprints on every ill — or accomplishment, as his acolytes would frame them — that followed. There’s probably some truth, too, to the idea that Kissinger maintained that influence in large part to help ensure his place in history as America’s most significant foreign policy mind, no matter who wrote it.

    The United States, after all, overthrew numerous democratically elected governments, waged secret bombing campaigns, and committed and permitted human rights abuses well before Kissinger came to power. And the U.S. government has carried out decades of endless war that have resulted in significant civilian death tolls, the expanded use of torture, indefinite detention, illegal rendition and extrajudicial murder since Kissinger left government. 

    Much like Kissinger, the architects of those disasters faced few, if any, meaningful repercussions. A country that so often predicates its concern for human rights on the specific humans in question, and in which elite accountability for even the most blatant crimes and abuses is so rare, seems to have made up its mind about morality’s place in politics and public policy without much need for Kissinger’s help. He was just happier than most to provide it.

    Perhaps, then, Kissinger’s life was most remarkable for how brightly it illuminated a simple and ugly truth about the nation he served.

    “If all the sins of the U.S. security state can be loaded onto one man, all parties get what they need: Kissinger’s status as a world-historic figure is assured, and his critics can regard his foreign policy as the exception rather than the rule,” Meaney, the essayist, posited for The New Yorker in 2020. “It would be comforting to believe that American liberals are capable of seeing that politics is more than a matter of personal style, and that the record will prevail, but the enduring cult of Kissinger points to a less palatable possibility: Kissinger is us.”

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  • JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon to business leaders: ‘Help Nikki Haley’

    JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon to business leaders: ‘Help Nikki Haley’

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    JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has a message for some of the world’s wealthiest corporate leaders: Help Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign.

    “Even if you’re a very liberal Democrat, I urge you, help Nikki Haley, too. Get a choice on the Republican side that might be better than [Donald] Trump,” Dimon said Wednesday at a conference hosted by The New York Times’ DealBook franchise.

    Present in the audience for Dimon’s remarks was a who’s who of Wall Street titans, including hedge fund veteran Bill Ackman. Billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk, media titan David Zaslav and Disney CEO Bob Iger were all scheduled to speak later in the day.

    Dimon was clearly addressing his remarks to the people in the room, and not to all liberal Democrats.

    The comments come as Haley is riding a wave of new support from key big money political backers. On Tuesday, the political network financed largely by billionaire Charles Koch formally endorsed the former governor of South Carolina.

    Haley told CNBC’s Squawk Box that she and Dimon spoke by phone recently about the state of the economy. Dimon has a net worth is $1.8 billion, according to Forbes.

    At the Dealbook conferene, Dimon stopped short of saying the Republican presidential nominee should be anyone but Trump.

    “I would never say that, you know, because he might be the president and I have to deal with him too,” said Dimon.

    Haley’s current momentum extends beyond Wall Street. A recent CNN poll showed 42% of likely GOP primary voters in the key primary state of New Hampshire supported Trump, with Haley in second place, getting 20%. For Haley, that’s an 8-point increase since the last CNN/University of New Hampshire poll in September.

    Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was in fourth place in that poll at 9%, behind former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s 14%.

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  • Jamie Dimon says JPMorgan Chase would exit China if ordered to

    Jamie Dimon says JPMorgan Chase would exit China if ordered to

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    JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday that his bank would exit China if the U.S. government ordered him to.

    “If the American government makes me leave China, I’m leaving China,” Dimon said at the DealBook Summit during a discussion about a potential future conflict over Taiwan. “If there’s a war in Taiwan, you would take all bets off.”

    JPMorgan, which says on its website that it’s been active in China for a century, does investment and corporate banking, payments and asset management there. Growing geopolitical tensions — fueled by wars in Ukraine and Israel — have raised concerns that China could move to annex Taiwan.

    “No one thinks it’s going to happen; it may happen,” Dimon said about war over Taiwan. “That would be really bad for the world and really bad for China.”

    Chairman and C.E.O. of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Jaime Dimon speaks during the New York Times annual DealBook summit on November 29, 2023 in New York City. 

    Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

    Dimon called relations with China, the world’s second largest economy, “a very complicated subject” and said that engagement with both China and the U.S. government was necessary.

    “I think it’s good for an American bank to be there to help multinationals around the world and China with their own development if it makes sense,” Dimon said. “If for some reason the American government says ‘Nope, can’t do that anymore,’ then so be it.”

    Dimon also pointed out that while the U.S. maintains good relations with Mexico and Canada, China has “done a pretty good job angering all the people around them,” and the country has “terrible demographics.”

    The bank advises Chinese clients including fast-fashion retailer Shein and Tiktok-parent company ByteDance.

    Dimon addressed security concerns related to TikTok, saying, “You can imagine the due diligence and work we do to figure out the truth about those things.”

    “If some of those people are doing things that we think are truly bad, we would not bank them,” he said.

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  • Joe Biden’s secret Ukraine weapon: Liz Truss

    Joe Biden’s secret Ukraine weapon: Liz Truss

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    LONDON —  She might have crashed Britain. But can she save the world?

    Former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss landed in Washington this week to drum up support for Ukraine among skeptical Republican lawmakers.  

    On both sides of the Atlantic there are hopes Truss can help steer the debate on the American right away from isolationism and toward the active international role espoused by both U.K. prime minister Rishi Sunak and U.S. President Joe Biden.

    Truss — no fan of either man — makes for an unlikely diplomatic superhero.

    The trip comes barely a year after her humiliating resignation ended a disastrous tenure as Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister. Since the end of her 49-day stint in Downing Street, Truss has tried to carve out a place for herself as a champion of right-wing policies around the world.

    She is in Washington this week as part of a delegation of the Conservative Friends of Ukraine (CFU), alongside fellow former Tory leaders Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard. The group has a packed schedule, with around two dozen meetings planned with conservative U.S. lawmakers and think tanks.

    The delegation’s arrival coincides with a stand-off between Biden and Republican lawmakers, who are stalling on a request to send billions more dollars in military aid to Ukraine. Congress has twice passed spending bills this fall that omitted funding for the conflict.

    Republicans have sought to tie support for Ukraine with measures to strengthen the U.S–Mexican border.

    Former President Donald Trump, who is widely expected to secure the Republican nomination for next year’s general election — and whom polling suggests is ahead of Biden in a series of key battleground states — shares this skeptical view of Ukraine aid. Back in May, Trump refused to say even whether he thought Ukraine or Russia should prevail in the war.

    A showdown is expected next week with a potential vote in the Senate on Joe Biden’s $106 billion aid package — $61.4 billion of which is earmarked for Ukraine. Senior diplomats on both sides of the Atlantic hope Truss could help break the impasse.

    One U.K. official said of the delegation: “They bring a more authentic voice to those kind of Republicans who like speaking to people from their own party — they’re not encumbered by government policy, they don’t have to sort of say nice things about the [Biden] administration.

    “If that resonates with Republican lawmakers in a way that governments don’t, then all to the good.”

    “We’ve targeted Trump-leaning or Trump-supporting Republicans to try and get them to think strategically,” Tory MP Jake Lopresti said | Jim Vondruska/Getty Images

    Showing the right what’s right

    Truss’ full-bodied right-wing agenda might have ended in disaster in Downing Street — but it puts her in a good stead with the Republican right.

    Far from being nice about the Biden administration, Truss was quick to explicitly endorse the Republican Party ahead of her trip, writing in the Wall Street Journal that she hoped “a Republican will be returned to the White House in 2024.”

    She went on: “There must be conservative leadership in the U.S. that is once again bold enough to call out hostile regimes as evil and a threat.”

    The CFU said there is no meeting with Trump himself on its agenda. Instead, Jake Lopresti, a Tory MP who is among the delegation, told POLITICO the group was focusing on lawmakers ahead of the expected Senate vote next week. “We’ve targeted Trump-leaning or Trump-supporting Republicans to try and get them to think strategically,” he said.

    Lopresti said the case the delegation was making was simple: “If you want to avoid conflict in the future, you have to have a strong deterrent. There’s trouble bubbling up all over the world. It’s a bit like the 1930s.

    “It’s cheaper and cleaner and quicker to actually solve it now, send a message — we won’t allow people to walk into other people’s countries in the 21st century. Ukraine is an independent nation, free, democratic. It’s got a right to run its own affairs.”

    High stakes

    John E. Herbst, a senior director at the Atlantic Council — and former U.S. Ambassador to Kyiv — said his think tank is supporting the delegation because it agrees Washington has a “vital stake … in making sure Russia loses in Ukraine.”

    “When Tory MPs come to the United States to explain to populist Republicans that the policy view of those Republicans on Ukraine is a great mistake, we think they should be supported,” he said.

    Notably, the delegation is following in Boris Johnson’s footsteps — another former British PM who has travelled to Washington several times this year to bring the case for supporting Ukraine to wavering Republican lawmakers.

    Johnson addressed a lunch organized by a pro-Ukraine think tank deep in the Republican territory of Dallas, Texas, where he told those present that victory for Vladimir Putin would be “terrible in its ramifications.” He evoked China’s claim over Taiwan, a major foreign policy concern for U.S. politicians of all stripes — especially Republicans.

    Duncan Smith, who has been sanctioned by China for criticizing its human rights record, similarly warned in a speech to the Heritage Foundation this week that the conflict in Ukraine and China’s threats against Taiwan are “linked inexorably” by a “new axis of totalitarian states.”

    “To ignore one is to multiply the danger in the others,” he said. “If Ukraine loses or is forced into some weak settlement with Russia … this in turn will be the strongest signal that the free world will not stand by Taiwan.”

    Whether enough Republicans are ready to listen remains to be seen.

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  • ‘Joe Biden is your best friend, until he isn’t’

    ‘Joe Biden is your best friend, until he isn’t’

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    Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe. 

    TEL AVIV — Do Israel’s Western allies really believe that the country has the right to defend itself?

    Israelis aren’t sure.

    To varying degrees since the military offensive was launched against Hamas, Western allies have sought to persuade Israel to curtail the campaign, and clearly some would prefer for it to be aborted altogether.

    Reeling from the shock at the sheer ISIS-like savagery of the Hamas attack on kibbutzim in southern Israel, Western allies quickly embraced Israel’s right to self-defense. But many hedged this right from the get-go with caveats — some justified — about the lack of a defining post-war end goal.

    There was handwringing also about the risks of the war expanding and inflaming the whole region and worry, too, that Israel might allow its anger to push it into over-reaching.

    Behind the scenes, the Biden administration was urging Benjamin Netanyahu to delay launching the offensive — a bid to run the clock, hoping the passing of time might lead Israel to scale back its military plans.

    And, of course, as the death toll in Gaza climbed, the shock of October 7 wore off for many Western allies.

    France’s Emmanuel Macron was the first major Western leader to call for a cessation of hostilities, making him an unsurprising outlier. But others have not been far behind, and now they hope to stretch the four-day truce for as long as possible, which would provide further time and opportunity to pile pressure on Israel to halt the military campaign for good. Or at least scale it back considerably.

    Characteristically, U.S. President Joe Biden has been inconsistent, trying to have it all ways.

    Two weeks ago, when asked what the chances were for a cease-fire in Gaza, Biden was in warrior mode and dismissive. “None. No possibility,” he said.

    In an op-ed in the Washington Post on November 18, he wrote: “We stand firmly with the Israeli people as they defend themselves against the murderous nihilism of Hamas.” He highlighted how he’d quickly gone to Israel after October 7 to “reaffirm to the world that the United States has Israel’s back.”

    “As long as Hamas clings to its ideology of destruction, a cease-fire is not peace. To Hamas’s members, every cease-fire is time they exploit to rebuild their stockpile of rockets, reposition fighters and restart the killing by attacking innocents again. An outcome that leaves Hamas in control of Gaza would once more perpetuate its hate and deny Palestinian civilians the chance to build something better for themselves,” he wrote.

    U.S. President Joe Biden speaks as Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu listens on prior to their meeting in Tel Aviv on October 18, 2023 | Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

    But less than a week later, while in Nantucket, Massachusetts for Thanksgiving, that was all forgotten and Biden struck a different chord saying “the chances are real” that the pause could open the door to a longer cease-fire.

    No worries there about how Hamas exploits every cease-fire for war preparations.

    Admittedly, Biden hasn’t talked yet of a permanent cease-fire and he’s linked any truces to the release of hostages. But the change in the mood music was striking and has been noted in Israel, where there’s rising anxiety that the Biden administration is making electoral calculations swayed by progressive Democrats, Arab leaders and Europeans.

    The problem with that is Hamas doesn’t really want a permanent end to hostilities, Israelis argue. Just ask Ghazi Hamad, a member of Hamas’ political bureau and a man some once suggested was a moderate, they say. Speaking on Lebanese television in October he applauded the slaughter of October 7 and promised that Hamas “will do this again and again.”

    “There will be a second, a third, a fourth,” he added. “Israel is a country that has no place on our land. We must remove that country, because it constitutes a security, military, and political catastrophe to the Arab and Islamic nation, and must be finished,” he declared.

    Israelis question whether the United States — as well as most other Western allies — really understand that Hamas isn’t interested in political negotiations about a two-state solution. “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free,” means what it says. No Jewish state.

    Politicians across the ideological spectrum in Israel are always careful to praise Biden publicly, but most are suspicious of the U.S. president, noting his inconstancy and his long-established pattern to talk grandiosely but act cautiously. And then there’s his habit of switching positions.

    In fact, the quip doing the rounds in Tel Aviv is that “Biden is your best friend, until he isn’t.”

    Others note the U.S. leader tends to go by his gut instincts when making decisions. “Does that mean we’re hostages to the fortunes of his digestive tract?” an aide to a member of Israel’s security cabinet remarked to me last week. He asked not to be named, not wanting to impact his boss’s relations with the White House.

    While some Israelis fault Netanyahu for reaching too easily for Holocaust comparisons and of failing to define a day-after governance plan for Gaza when Hamas is no more, the one overwhelming message from most is that this time Hamas must be defeated comprehensively, and that a truncated military campaign would in effect be a win for Hamas.

    Opinion polls bear that out with Israeli attitudes towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict more hawkish than at any time in recent memory. Only 24.5 percent of Israeli Jews favor peace negotiations with the Palestinian Authority – a fall from 47.6 in favor in September.

    In a survey conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute before the current pause, only 10 percent of Israeli Jews said they would support a pause in fighting to exchange hostages.

    A woman holds an Israeli flag and a portrait of a hostage during a protest asking for the release of Israeli hostages in Tel Aviv on November 25, 2023 | Gil Cohen-Magen/AFP via Getty Images

    Meanwhile, 44 percent said they wanted the government to negotiate for the hostages’ return without any pause and 27 percent said there should be no negotiations, only fighting. And 12 percent said hostage talks should only take place when Hamas has been defeated.

    Israelis do worry that international pressure will mount to such an extent that they are compelled to stop the war on Hamas far short of the war aims. A halt now or before the goal has been accomplished would be “for Yahya Sinwar [Hamas’ leader in Gaza] a victory,” says Michael Milshtein, a former head of the Department for Palestinians Affairs in Israel’s Defense Intelligence agency.

    “If this war ends with Hamas’ survival, it will further weaken the PLO-led Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and we can kiss goodbye to any serious talks in the future about a two-state solution or a political settlement with the Palestinians. Hamas isn’t interested in a political resolution – it wants to extinguish the state of Israel,” Milshtein adds. The only question will be when the next war will begin, he and others say.

    “We have to end their capability of threatening Israel ever again,” Ophir Falk, Benjamin Netanyahu’s top foreign policy adviser, told me. “This can’t be just another cycle of violence. Almost everybody in Israel is fully united. The people in the streets and the government and the cabinet and everybody understands that this is a must thing for us to do,” he added.

    So, what if the pressure mounts from Western allies for a cessation of hostilities? “No, that’s not an option,” Falk told me. “We are going to destroy Hamas. And asking us for a ceasefire would be like asking for a ceasefire after 9/11 or Pearl Harbor. It’s just not going to happen,” he added.

    Pretty much across the board, Israelis from all walks of life are unequivocal: There should be no let-up in the campaign to uproot Hamas from Gaza. “This isn’t Bibi’s war; it is Israel’s war,” I have been told time and again the past month. 

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  • Kamala Harris at climate summit: World must ‘fight’ those stalling action

    Kamala Harris at climate summit: World must ‘fight’ those stalling action

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    DUBAI — The vast, global efforts to arrest rising temperatures are imperiled and must accelerate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris told the world climate summit on Saturday. 

    “We must do more,” she implored an audience of world leaders at the COP28 climate talks in Dubai. And the headwinds are only growing, she warned.

    “Continued progress will not be possible without a fight,” she told the gathering, which has drawn more than 100,000 people to this Gulf oil metropolis. “Around the world, there are those who seek to slow or stop our progress. Leaders who deny climate science, delay climate action and spread misinformation. Corporations that greenwash their climate inaction and lobby for billions of dollars in fossil fuel subsidies.” 

    Her remarks — less than a year before an election that could return Donald Trump to the White House — challenged leaders to cooperate and spend more to keep the goal of containing global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach. So far, the planet has warmed about 1.3 degrees since preindustrial times.

    “Our action collectively, or worse, our inaction will impact billions of people for decades to come,” Harris said.

    The vice president, who frequently warns about climate change threats in speeches and interviews, is the highest-ranking face of the Biden White House at the Dubai negotiations.

    She used her conference platform to push that image, announcing several new U.S. climate initiatives, including a record-setting $3 billion pledge for the so-called Green Climate Fund, which aims to help countries adapt to climate change and reduce emissions. The commitment echoes an identical pledge Barack Obama made in 2014 — of which only $1 billion was delivered. The U.S. Treasury Department later specified that the updated commitment was “subject to the availability of funds.”

    Meanwhile, back in D.C., the Biden administration strategically timed the release of new rules to crack down on planet-warming methane emissions from the oil and gas sector — a significant milestone in its plan to prevent climate catastrophe.

    The trip allows Harris to bolster her credentials on a policy issue critical to the young voters key to President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign — and potentially to a future Harris White House run. 

    “Given her knowledge base with the issue, her passion for the issue, it strikes me as a smart move for her to broaden that message out to the international audience,” said Roger Salazar, a California political strategist and former aide to then-Vice President Al Gore, a lifetime climate campaigner. 

    Yet sending Harris also presents political peril. 

    Biden has taken flak from critics for not attending the talks himself after representing the United States at the last two U.N. climate summits since taking office. And climate advocates have questioned the Biden administration’s embrace of the summit’s leader, Sultan al-Jaber, given he also runs the United Arab Emirates’ state-owned oil giant. John Kerry, Biden’s climate envoy, has argued the partnership can help bring fossil fuel megaliths to the table.

    Harris has been on a climate policy roadshow in recent months, discussing the issue during a series of interviews at universities and other venues packed with young people and environmental advocates. The administration said it views Harris — a former California senator and attorney general — as an effective spokesperson on climate. 

    “The vice president’s leadership on climate goes back to when she was the district attorney of San Francisco, as she established one of the first environmental justice units in the nation,” a senior administration official told reporters on a call previewing her trip. 

    Joining Harris in Dubai are Kerry, White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi and John Podesta, who’s leading the White House effort to implement Biden’s signature climate law. 

    Biden officials are leaning on that climate law — dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act — to prove the U.S. is doing its part to slash global emissions. Yet climate activists remain skeptical, chiding Biden for separately approving a series of fossil fuel projects, including an oil drilling initiative in Alaska and an Appalachian natural gas pipeline.

    Similarly, the Biden administration’s opening COP28 pledge of $17.5 million for a new international climate aid fund frustrated advocates for developing nations combating climate threats. The figure lagged well behind other allies, several of whom committed $100 million or more.

    Nonetheless, Harris called for aggressive action in her speech, which was followed by a session with other officials on renewable energy. The vice president committed the U.S. to doubling its energy efficiency and tripling its renewable energy capacity by 2030, joining a growing list of countries. The U.S. also said Saturday it was joining a global alliance dedicated to divorcing the world from coal-based energy. 

    Like other world leaders, Harris also used her trip to conduct a whirlwind of diplomacy over the war between Israel and Hamas, which has flared back up after a brief truce.

    U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Harris would be meeting with “regional leaders” to discuss “our desire to see this pause restored, our desire to see aid getting back in, our desire to see hostages get out.”

    The war has intruded into the proceedings at the climate summit, with Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas both skipping their scheduled speaking slots on Friday. Iran’s delegation also walked out of the summit, objecting to Israel’s presence.

    Kirby said Harris will convey “that we believe the Palestinian people need a vote and a voice in their future, and then they need governance in Gaza that will look after their aspirations and their needs.”

    Although Biden won’t be going to Dubai, the administration said these climate talks are “especially” vital, given countries will decide how to respond to a U.N. assessment that found the world’s climate efforts are falling short. 

    “This is why the president has made climate a keystone of his administration’s foreign policy agenda,” the senior administration official said.

    Robin Bravender reported from Washington, D.C. Zia Weise and Charlie Cooper reported from Dubai. 

    Sara Schonhardt contributed reporting from Washington, D.C.

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  • Nuclear’s uncertain role in the shift away from fossil fuels is seen as critical and very contentious

    Nuclear’s uncertain role in the shift away from fossil fuels is seen as critical and very contentious

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    Cooling towers at a nuclear power plant in Slovakia. Nuclear power is likely to be discussed in great detail at the COP28 climate change summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

    Janos Kummer | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    The role that nuclear power should play in creating a more sustainable future has long provoked strong feelings — among advocates and critics alike.

    It’s set to be a hot topic at the COP28 summit in Dubai, which begins this week. There are reports that there will be a concerted effort to get behind a big increase in nuclear capacity from now to 2050.

    Of particular interest to observers will be a ministerial event called “Atoms4NetZero” on Dec. 5. Co-hosted by the International Atomic Energy Agency and the COP28 presidency, the event will “announce the IAEA Statement on Nuclear Power,” according to the COP28 website.

    That, it adds, reflects the “critical role of nuclear in the net zero transition.”

    Atoms4NetZero was namechecked by the World Nuclear Association in September when it announced the launch of an initiative called "Net Zero Nuclear," which aims to triple the planet's nuclear capacity by the middle of the century.

    In a statement issued alongside that announcement, Rafael Mariano Grossi, the IAEA's director general, stressed the importance of the coming climate summit.

    "Building on the efforts made during COP 26 and COP 27, nuclear energy will feature even more prominently at COP28," he said.

    "As more nations understand the role nuclear can play in achieving energy security and decarbonisation targets, global support for nuclear energy is growing," he added.

    The IAEA, for its part, will also have its own "Atoms4Climate" pavilion at COP28, where it says it will "showcase how nuclear technology and science are addressing the twin challenge of climate change mitigation and adaptation."

    A major debate

    In a sign of how polarizing the debate around the subject can be, this month, the leader of Germany's center-right Christian Democratic Union lamented his country's move away from nuclear power after the closure of its last three plants in April 2023.

    "The German government took a decision which was in our view absolutely wrong, a strategic mistake to get out of nuclear," Friedrich Merz told CNBC's Annette Weisbach.

    Merz — whose party is not in the coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz — said rather than focusing only on wind and solar, "all energy sources" need to be utilized.

    "The energy supply — for this country, for our industry — is decisive for our competitiveness," he went on to state.

    High-profile figures in the German government do not share Merz's viewpoint.

    "The phase-out of nuclear power makes our country safer; ultimately, the risks of nuclear power are uncontrollable," Steffi Lemke, Germany's federal minister for the environment and nuclear safety, said in April.

    "We now face decades full of challenges before we can safely and responsibly dispose of our nuclear legacy," she later added.

    "But switching off the final three nuclear power plants will usher in a new era in energy production."

    This kind of analysis — that nuclear is not the answer — is shared by environmental organizations like Greenpeace.

    "Nuclear power is touted as a solution to our energy problems, but in reality it's complex and hugely expensive to build," its website says. "It also creates huge amounts of hazardous waste."

    "Renewable energy is cheaper and can be installed quickly," it added. "Together with battery storage, it can generate the power we need and slash our emissions."

    While Germany — Europe's largest economy — has moved away from nuclear, other countries are looking to expand their capacity.

    They include the U.K., which says it wants to deliver as many as 24 gigawatts by 2050, and Sweden, which is looking to construct new reactors.

    France, a major player in nuclear power, is also planning to increase its number of reactors.

    Stock picks and investing trends from CNBC Pro:

    Energy markets are still affected by the shocks from Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and discussions about nuclear power are not going away anytime soon.

    "Amid today's global energy crisis, reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels has become the top energy security priority," noted the International Energy Agency, viewed by many as a leading authority on the energy transition.

    "No less important is the climate crisis: reaching net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by mid-century requires a rapid and complete decarbonisation of electricity generation and heat production," it added.

    "Nuclear energy, with around 413 gigawatts (GW) of capacity operating in 32 countries, contributes to both goals by avoiding 1.5 gigatonnes (Gt) of global emissions and 180 billion cubic metres (bcm) of global gas demand a year."

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  • Far-right anti-Islam candidate clinches shock Dutch election win. Here’s what comes next

    Far-right anti-Islam candidate clinches shock Dutch election win. Here’s what comes next

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    SCHEVENINGEN, NETHERLANDS – NOVEMBER 22: Geert Wilders, Dutch right-wing politician and leader of the Party for Freedom (PVV), reacts to the exit poll and early results that strongly indicate a victory for his party in the Dutch elections on November 22, 2023 in Scheveningen, Netherlands. Dutch voters have gone to the polls today in one of the most tightly contested general elections in recent years. (Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images).

    Carl Court | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Far-right politician Geert Wilders sent shockwaves through the European political landscape as he led his party to a decisive victory in the Netherlands’ general elections.

    Only late in the campaign did polls begin to suggest that controversial Wilders, who rails against immigration and espouses a series of Islamophobic policies, could come to power after 25 years in politics.

    The result of Wednesday’s election will be concerning both to Brussels — Wilders’ Euroskepticism extends as far as calling for a ‘Nexit’, or Netherlands exit from the European Union — and to Ukraine, as Wilders has pledged to cut off military aid.

    The Netherlands is the EU’s fifth-biggest economy and has proved influential, with a significant sway in policymaking. For 13 years the country has been led by centre-right Mark Rutte, who developed a reputation as the “teflon prime minister” for his ability to weather scandals while being a pragmatic dealmaker.

    The Netherlands is also a key U.S. ally in the ever-important spheres of trade and technology, where it has rolled out export restrictions on advanced semiconductor equipment amid U.S. efforts to curb supplies to China. Its role here is vital due to its homegrown firm ASML, one of the most important semiconductor companies in the world.

    Next steps

    Forming a coalition in the 150-seat Dutch parliament is typically lengthy and difficult, even where the victor is not a political pariah.

    There is still no guarantee Wilders will become the new prime minister, even with his Freedom Party (PVV)’s 37 seats. Much hinges on whether other parties will go back on previous pledges not to work with the PVV, particularly in light of the size of its victory.

    Sarah de Lange, professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Amsterdam, said the most likely outcome appears to be a right-wing government comprised of the PVV, Rutte’s conservative VVD Party, and Pieter Omtzigt’s New Social Contract party, which was formed in August with a pledge to “do politics differently.”

    This would likely require Wilders to give up the most extreme components of his manifesto, which include proposals to bring immigration to zero, ban the Quran and close mosques, many of which are unconstitutional, de Lange told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

    On fiscal policy, Wilders’ party has a “clear populist” bent, said Ester Barendregt, chief economist at Rabobank.

    “So, a lot of wishes for more public spending, for instance, pensions, higher minimum wages and lots of other things, but much less clear ideas on how to pay for it. Certainly one wish of Geert Wilders is to pay less to Europe. Of course, it remains to be seen how much room for maneuver he will have.”  

    However, forming a government may involve a coalition with parties that are “keen on keeping government financing under control,” Barendregt added, which would mean spending was balanced by cuts.

    “I would expect markets to understand the political landscape in the Netherlands, which means coalition forming and compromises on all sides… And in fact, Geert Wilders has been able to win these elections, I think, also because of his more moderate tone in recent weeks, which has drawn more voters than was previously expected,” she said.

    The PVV did not follow the convention of submitting its economic plan to a planning board for an analysis of its viability, noted Liza Mügge, an associate professor at the University of Amsterdam — adding to uncertainty.

    EU nerves?

    The decisive issues in Wilders’ victory were likely immigration and the Dutch housing crisis, Mügge said by phone, with the European Union and foreign policy discussed much less frequently.

    Overall, analysts said, a Wilders-led government is likely to be more antagonistic within the EU, but the extent of this may be reined in by coalition partners.

    This may not ease nerves in Brussels over the future of unity in the bloc and agreement on topics such as Ukraine aid, migration and refugees.

    Wilders would join fellow EU leaders who are heavily critical of its policies — such as in Slovakia and Hungary — and those who are pushing their countries’ politics further to the right, like in Sweden and Italy.

    The EU will now be watching the Netherlands’ government formation closely, Alexandra Kellert, associate director at consultancy Control Risks, said by email.

    To court allies, Wilders may need to rule out any “Nexit” vote, she said.

    There is little indication that such a vote would gather much momentum in any case, with polling from this year suggesting that around 67% of people have a favorable view of the EU.

    “In the unlikely event that Wilders does become prime minister, the biggest impact would be in the European Council. This is where there is the potential for Wilders to team up with other Eurosceptic leaders like [Hungary’s] Viktor Orban to disrupt policy-making, especially on foreign policy issues like sanctions, which require unanimity, and support for Ukraine,” Kellert said.

    “The EU will also be thinking about what the results mean for the upcoming European Parliament elections next June. A repeat of the PVV’s success and of other populist parties across the EU would make it harder for the EU to pass legislation in some areas, particularly related to climate change.”

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