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Tag: foreign interests

  • How Is Trump’s Venezuela Takeover Going?

    Since the U.S. ousted Maduro, the former vice president has been working to meet the Trump administration’s demands — while at times publicly denouncing what the U.S. has done — and all the while working to consolidate her control over the regime and country. Per Bloomberg:

    [Rodríguez] has seamlessly moved into the role of acting president. She has chaired meetings with senior officials, greeted international envoys, welcomed the press at Miraflores Palace and met privately with diplomats. But beneath the continuity, the bedrock of Chavismo — Venezuela’s brand of socialism — is beginning to shift as Rodríguez quickly moves to consolidate authority and unite the fractured ruling coalition. There are some subtle changes. Rodríguez’s days start earlier, her public remarks are far more concise and the marathon speeches that defined Maduro’s rule are gone. Public officials are now allowed back on X.

    Other moves are far more consequential, including a reshaping of the cabinet and security apparatus and the release of dozens of political prisoners. Decisions on senior personnel are being received positively by the Trump administration, according to one person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named discussing sensitive deliberations.

    Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have repeatedly said that Rodríguez has been doing what the administration tells her. Trump has called her a “terrific person” and last week told Reuters that she “has been very good to deal with.” He also said that he thinks she’s “eventually” going to come to the White House, and that “I’ll go to their country too.”

    In her state of the union speech Thursday, Rodríguez called for opening the country’s oil sector to foreign investment.

    The regime has also moved to reopen the U.S. embassy in Caracas and has already hosted a U.S. delegation. At the same time, Rodríguez and other regime officials have been trying to have it all ways, signaling willing partnership and shared opportunity with Trump and the U.S., while also insisting they are just as anti-imperialist as they ever were.

    On Thursday, Rodríguez met in Caracas with CIA director John Ratcliffe, the most senior Trump administration official to visit the country since the invasion. His high-profile visit was reportedly intended to further signal the administration’s support for Rodríguez as the country’s interim leader. (Ahead of the Maduro operation, a CIA assessment indicated that Rodríguez would be the best choice to take over and maintain stability in the country.)

    Here’s what Freddy Guevara, the former vice president of the Venezuelan National Assembly, who has been living in exile for the past four years, recently told Reveal about Rodríguez and her grip on power:

    I know her and I know her brother. I was involved, as I said, in negotiation processes and they were both in there. And I have to tell you that they are not moderate at all, they are super radical, and they believe they are smarter than everyone. I am sure that what they’re trying to do is to convince Trump or the Trump administration to allow them to have kind of a Saudi Arabia or China in Latin America. Which means international investments, but no political freedom for example. I think that’s her plan A.  

    I think their plan B is to outsmart Trump and figure it out, how to survive and buy time, make small concessions enough to not get them out of power.

    Chas Danner

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  • How Many People Have Been Killed in Iran’s Brutal Protest Crackdown?

    Despite the communications blackout, a number of disturbing videos, first-hand accounts, and other reports have emerged from Iran. Taken together, they appear to confirm that at least a few thousand people have been killed. And though there are no verifiable estimates of the death toll thus far, even that lowest estimate would be extraordinary in modern Iran’s history.

    Reuters reported Tuesday that according to Iranian government officials, about 2,000 people were killed in the protests, including civilians and security personnel.

    The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) says it has confirmed that at least 2,403 protesters have been killed in the 17 days since protests began.

    The New York Times reported on Tuesday that according to senior Iranian government officials, the death toll was at least 3,000, but it’s currently impossible to independently verify that:

    Human rights groups are struggling to reach their contacts inside Iran and follow the methodology they normally use to verify information but say they have counted more than 500 dead. Multiple American officials say that U.S. intelligence agencies have conservatively estimated that more than 600 protesters have been killed so far. The agencies have noted that both the current protests and the crackdown are far more violent than those in 2022 or other recent uprisings against the government.

    A senior Iranian health ministry official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said about 3,000 people had been killed across the country but sought to shift the blame to “terrorists” fomenting unrest. The figure included hundreds of security officers, he said. Another government official, also speaking on the condition of anonymity, said he had seen an internal report that referred to at least 3,000 dead, and added that the toll could climb.

    There are also much higher estimates of the number of dead.

    A U.S. official told Axios that Israeli intelligence has assessed that at least 5,000 protesters have been killed.

    The editorial board of Iran International, an opposition media organization based in London, said Tuesday that it estimates that at least 12,000 people have been killed, mostly on January 8 and 9. That estimate, the board said, was based on:

    … a rigorous, multi-stage process and in accordance with established professional standards – information received from a source close to the Supreme National Security Council; two sources in the presidential office; accounts from several sources within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the cities of Mashhad, Kermanshah, and Isfahan; testimonies from eyewitnesses and families of those killed; field reports; data linked to medical centers; and information provided by doctors and nurses in various cities.

    CBS News also reported on Tuesday that, according to two sources, the death toll was at least 12,000, and as high as 20,000, but it’s not possible to confirm the accuracy of those numbers, either:

    A source inside Iran who was able to call out told CBS News on Tuesday that activist groups working to compile a full death toll from the protests, based on reports from medical officials across the country, believed the toll was at least 12,000, and possibly as high as 20,000. The same source said security forces were visiting the many private hospitals across Tehran, threatening staff to hand over the names and addresses of those being treated for injuries sustained in the protests. CBS News has not been able to independently verify the massive death toll indicated by the source, which is some many times larger than the numbers reported by most activist groups independently in recent days — though those groups have always made it clear that their tallies are likely underestimated.

    Videos shared from Iran in recent days have seemed to confirm an unprecedented scale of bloodshed. In horrifying footage recorded at a single morgue in Kazhirak, just outside the capital Tehran, hundreds of bodies can be seen lined up on the ground. And there are reports of similar scenes in other cities, as well as multiple reports of hospitals that were overwhelmed by casualties.

    Even the lowest estimates at this point would surpass the number of people killed in previous crackdowns on mass protests by the Islamic Republic. According to human-rights organizations, dozens were killed during the Green Movement protests in 2009 and more than 550 during the Mahsa Amini protests in 2022. According to one report, roughly 1,500 Iranians were killed over multiple weeks when the regime crushed the the Bloody November protests in 2019.

    It’s also difficult to determine how many people have been injured and how many have been arrested during this new wave of protests. HRANA says it has confirmed that at least 1,134 people have suffered severe injuries, and that more than 18,400 people have been arrested.

    Chas Danner

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  • Now What for Israel, Gaza, and Trump the Peacemaker?

    In an essay at The New Yorker, Palestinian journalist Mohammed R. Mhawish explains the political reality on the ground in Gaza and insists that self-determination is the only viable path forward

    Reconstruction that restores roads but not representation will only re-create dependency. The next phase of Gaza’s life must be shaped by those who have lived through its collapse. If the world tries to govern Gaza from abroad, Palestinians must insist on governing themselves from within. The rubble is already being cleared for a new administration. The question is whether Palestinians can transform the ruins of a political order into the foundation of another that belongs to them.

    In December, 2023, an Israeli air strike destroyed my home in Gaza, and it collapsed on top of me and my family. I fled to Egypt in 2024, and have been living in exile since. I have lost family members in Gaza. I have lost friends and colleagues. Even so, I count myself among those who have lost the least. I am not asking for pity, or charity, or anything in return. None of us is. The world will not make it up to us, and we are not waiting for it to try. What matters now is a restoration of Gaza’s political life. In my lifetime, Palestinian political participation has been almost nonexistent. Older generations in Gaza have voted once or twice, but I have never had the chance to take part in any political exercise. Most young people have had no say in who leads them or how policy is made in Gaza or in the West Bank. The only thing we ask for now is the right to chart our own political future on our own terms.

    There is no faster poison than despair declared permanent. For Palestinians, refugee camps have hardened into towns, and checkpoints into landmarks. The ration boxes meant to feed the hungry have become a generation’s economy. We grew up knowing walls better than schools. We were instructed to believe that ruins were homes, breadlines were governance, and silent misery was “calm.” Fear has been institutionalized—budgeted, distributed, sold as peace. Submission was repackaged as maturity. The cruellest occupation is not of land but of the imagination.

    We as Palestinians are often congratulated for our resilience. It has become the badge pinned on us—the costume of the noble victim. Our ability to breathe under rubble is praised as a virtue, when it’s actually an indictment of the world that put us there. If it does not lead to freedom, resilience delivers only another day of captivity. Survival is the most meagre inheritance. To call us resilient is to praise the caged bird while ignoring the cage’s latch. Surviving destruction is not the same as defeating it. There’s cruelty in this praise. It tells the world to marvel at our strength while ignoring the cost paid in blood and hunger. Our pain is romanticized, and our survival treated as the whole story—when it is only the beginning.

    Read the rest of Mwhaish’s essay here.

    Chas Danner

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  • What Will Iran’s Attack on Israel Mean? Live Updates

    What Will Iran’s Attack on Israel Mean? Live Updates

    Bloomberg reports that Iran’s large scale attack may have yielded valuable data on Israel’s air defenses:

    Iran will likely carefully monitor the Israeli and US response to see how its technology competes with Western air systems and tactics, according to a former US intelligence official, who asked not to be identified given the sensitivity of the issue. Iran could use those insights for future attacks, as well as share it with proxies to improve their effectiveness with Iranian weapons.

    According to the Institute for the Study of War’s analysis, the attack “shows that Iran is learning from the Russians and the Houthis to develop increasingly dangerous and effective strike packages against Israel and the U.S.”:

    The combination of Iranian drones and both cruise and ballistic missiles against Israel is meant to confuse and overwhelm Israeli air defenses. Launches of concurrent attacks by Iranian-backed actors in Lebanon and Yemen are part of this effort.

    This Iranian approach mirrors Russia’s experimentation with combinations of ballistic and cruise missiles alongside Iranian drones to launch increasingly effective strike packages able to penetrate US and European anti-missile and air defense systems.

    Iran has also learned from Houthi attacks targeting international shipping around Yemen. The Houthis have used combinations of Iranian drones and missiles against US air and missile defense systems, allowing Iran and the Houthis to test and improve their strike packages.

    The continued use of Iranian-designed drones by multiple enemies of the US and the deepening ties between the actors using them will help Tehran, Russia, North Korea, and China to refine their use of these systems against the United States and its allies and partners. The US and its allies and partners face an increasingly interconnected group of adversaries helping one another and learning from one another.

    Chas Danner

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  • Israelis Are Hostages of Netanyahu

    Israelis Are Hostages of Netanyahu

    Relatives and supporters of the Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza since the October 7 attack hold placards, wave Israeli flags, and display a caricature of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a demonstration in front of the Defense Ministry in the Israeli coastal city of Tel Aviv on Saturday.
    Photo: Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images

    We’ve received terrible news,” Carmit Palty Katzir announced on Facebook on Saturday: Elad, her brother who had been held hostage by Hamas since October 7, was dead. Carmit already lost her father to Hamas gunmen that day and her mother had been held in captivity for over a month until she was released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Though she noted the military’s “courageous operation” to retrieve Elad’s body, Carmit excoriated her country’s leaders for allowing him to die in Gaza. He “could have been saved if a deal had been reached in time,” she wrote. “Our leadership is cowardly and motivated by political considerations, and that is why that didn’t happen.”

    Protesters feel the same way. On Saturday, Israel was rocked by the largest demonstrations against the government since the war began six months ago. Some families of Israeli hostages marched to Benjamin Netanyahu’s home carrying photos of the captives, torches, and banners reading:

    “WE’RE ALL HOSTAGES.”

    Hostages, that is, of the prime minister and his incompetent government that failed to stop Hamas from killing some 1,200 people and taking another 250 hostage, more than half of whom remain in captivity.

    “Six months later, and Netanyahu and his entire government fucked this up, and they’re still there,” says Itzhak Amar, a taxi driver in Tel Aviv. “It’s a middle finger to all of us. He’s just hanging on by his fingernails.”

    On trial for corruption, unwell (he underwent mysterious “hernia surgery” last week), and clinging to power, the 74-year-old leader is also trapped. Netanyahu refuses to entertain a commission of inquiry “until after the war,” a time he refuses to identify, presumably because that would finally be the end of his political career.

    In the past week, prominent family members of some of the hostages began to openly say Netanyahu was sabotaging any hope for their release. On Saturday night, Katzir and numerous other families accused him of “torpedoing” efforts to achieve a deal that would release hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and a ceasefire, which would likely fracture his coalition and lead its more radical members to bolt in protest over what they consider a precipitous end to the war.

    Rumors have circulated in Jerusalem for weeks that Netanyahu has been slow-walking negotiations by refusing to give his representatives real authority to make a deal with Hamas. On Thursday, President Bidenurged the prime minister to empower his negotiators” to conclude a deal to bring Israeli hostages home, according to the White House, in a stern call after Israeli forces killed seven members of the World Central Kitchen aid group delivering food to Gaza.

    Amar, the taxi driver, stopped outside Habima Plaza, once a tony hub surrounded by cultural institutions, now renamed Hostages Square, where the captives’ desperate family members camp out in tents. Poster-sized portraits of their loved ones line the square, some adorned with pink hearts (the freed or the rescued) and some adorned by black ribbons (those killed). On Saturday, Elad Katzir’s picture was covered in black.

    Families of the Israeli hostages march with torches and photos of their loved ones last week in Jerusalem. The sign reads: “We’re all hostages”. Thousands of Israelis gathered around the Knesset to protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, followed by a march led by the hostages’ families to Netanyahu’s residence on Azza Street — demanding an immediate hostage deal and general elections. Protesters later clashed with the Israeli police at a barrier erected around Netanyahu’s house.
    Photo: Matan Golan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

    Netanyahu’s refusal to resign after presiding over the worst disaster in Israel’s history — let alone fire a single minister, military, or intelligence official over it — has left Israel feeling frozen in the amber of October 7. The war is not over in Gaza or at home where some 200,000 Israelis remain displaced from the south and north due to threats from Hamas and Hezbollah, respectively. As the six-month anniversary approached, Israel braced itself for yet another attack, this time directly from Iran in retaliation for a general killed in Syria by the IDF last week. On Thursday, people’s phones in Tel Aviv told them they were in Damascus, or in some cases Beirut. The geolocation failure was caused by the Israeli army scrambling GPS signals to thwart any incoming Iranian missiles — though the army failed to inform residents, prompting widespread confusion and massive traffic jams.

    If any snapshot symbolizes the desolation of Israelis over the past six months, it is the remarkable video of a confrontation between Reuma Kedem, a renowned Israeli fashion designer, and Yoav Gallant, Netanyahu’s defense minister.

    It was a chance meeting. Kedem lost her daughter, Tamar, three grandchildren, son-in-law Johnny, and his mother, Carol on October 7. On January 11, Kedem had returned to the destroyed community of Nir Oz to salvage some personal mementos. Behind their ruined home, she was surprised to find herself face-to-face with Gallant, who, like other Israeli ministers, no longer announces his whereabouts for fear of being jeered by the public — but brought cameras to document his visit.

    “Where were you?” Kedem beseeched the defense minister, who stood silent and expressionless while she spoke, pointing to the destruction all around them. “What are you doing? This trash government… This wasn’t fate. These were people who didn’t do their jobs.”

    Kedem, whose father was a founder of the IDF’s vaunted cyber intel Unit 8200, said that a single warning would have saved 1,200 lives.
    “Tamar would have left after one phone call,” she cried to Gallant, over and over again. “Tamar would have left after one phone call.”

    “My heart is gone,” she said. “My heart was burned away.”

    Speaking on the eve of the six-month anniversary of their murders, Kedem says “there’s been no change. Change for the worse.”

    Even after her encounter with Gallant, which went viral in Israel, she says “no one has called us. No one from the government. No minister. No deputy minister. No one.”

    She believes the state itself has collapsed. “It took me two weeks to find my daughter’s and grandchildren’s bodies,” she says, her voice a thin whisper. “No one knows anything.”

    “We were abandoned completely,” says Reuma Kedem. On October 7, she and her husband sheltered inside their home in Kibbutz Ein HaShlosha as Hamas attacked. She lost six members of her family and says it took authorities two weeks to identify her grandchildren’s remains. Today the Kedems are among those displaced from the country’s south.

    “The prime minister has forsaken us. Hamas isn’t our problem,” she says. “We are hostages in the clasp of Netanyahu, Ben Gvir, Smotrich, and Levin” — a list of Netanyahu’s more radical associates.

    “We’ve learned that we were completely abandoned,” she says of the six months since October 7. “Abandoned. Abandoned. Abandoned.”

    By Noga Tarnopolsky

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