ReportWire

Tag: forecasting

  • We’re Addicted to This Gloriously Retro Digital Weather Channel

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    In the days of yore—the 1990s—there were no smartphone apps providing real-time, on-the-spot weather updates. People actually had to turn their TVs on, flip to The Weather Channel, and wait for the cycle of forecasts to show the conditions in their city.

    It was a simpler time filled with ambient smooth jazz and teletext. If you just breathed a heavy sigh of longing, boy do I have news for you. Behold WeatherStar 4000+, a web recreation of The Weather Channel’s 90s aesthetic—jazz and all. Built by programmer Matt Walsh, the website provides accurate weather forecasts for any location you type into the search bar.

    The project is based on the work of software engineer Mike Battaglia, who created the code that draws the weather displays as well as the background graphics and maps. Walsh’s iteration is accessible via a web browser or installable on your computer.

    A brief history of WeatherStar

    The site gets its name from the original WeatherStar 4000, the first graphical weather information system for cable television. The Weather Channel developed and produced this iteration of its WeatherStar system in 1990, then retired it in 2014 along with the broadcast of its analog satellite feed.

    For decades, the WeatherStar system allowed The Weather Channel to receive, generate, and transmit local forecast information based on where viewers live. The “Star” part of the name is short for Satellite Transponder Addressable Receiver, describing the method by which the system receives weather data and commands in the field via satellite.

    The technology was composed of a computer unit installed in a cable system’s central broadcasting facility, or “headend.” Intellistar—the system that The Weather Channel relies on today—is similar to WeatherStar in the sense that it receives data over a satellite connection and over the internet, but it can receive more complex information more efficiently.

    The OG WeatherStar4000, but better

    Walsh created WeatherStar4000+ purely for the sake of nostalgia. “​​This is by no means intended to be a perfect emulation of the WeatherStar 4000, the hardware that produced those wonderful blue and orange graphics you saw during the local forecast on The Weather Channel,” Walsh explains on the project’s GitHub page. “Instead, this project intends to create a simple to use interface with minimal configuration fuss.”

    WeatherStar 4000+ runs on the National Weather Service’s open-source meteorological data. Walsh’s simulation includes a number of modifications to both the original hardware unit and Battaglia’s code, such as an hourly forecast display and a graph of the temperature, cloud cover, and precipitation chances.

    Walsh advises against relying on WeatherStar4000+ during life-threatening weather situations, but on the average day, those yearning for the heyday of cable television can use this site to scratch that itch and access accurate forecast information.

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    Ellyn Lapointe

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  • Google’s AI Weather Model Nailed Its First Major Storm Forecast

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    While generative AI tools that primarily amount to slop generators grab most of the attention in the artificial intelligence space, there are occasionally some actually useful applications of the technology, like Google DeepMind’s use of AI weather models to predict cyclones. The experimental tool, launched earlier this year, successfully managed to provide accurate modeling of Hurricane Erin as it started gaining steam in the Atlantic Ocean earlier this month.

    As Ars Technica first reported, Hurricane Erin—which reached Category 5 status and caused some damage to the island of Bermuda, parts of the Caribbean, and the East Coast of the United States—provided Google DeepMind’s Weather Lab with the first real test of its capabilities.

    According to James Franklin, former chief of the hurricane specialist unit at the National Hurricane Center, it did quite well, outperforming the National Hurricane Center’s official model and topping several other physics-based models during the first 72 hours of modeling. It did ultimately fall off a bit the longer the prediction effort ran, but it still topped the consensus model through the five-day forecast.

    While Google’s model was impressively accurate in the first days of modeling, it’s the latter ones that are most important to experts, per Ars Technica, as days three through five of the model are the ones that officials count on to make decisions on calls for evacuation and other preparatory efforts. Still, it seems like there may be some promise in the possibility of AI-powered weather modeling—though the sample size here is pretty small.

    Most of the current gold standard modeling techniques used for storm prediction use physics-based prediction engines, which essentially try to recreate the conditions of the atmosphere by factoring in things like humidity, air pressure, and temperature changes to simulate how a storm might behave. Google’s model instead pulls from a massive amount of data that it was trained on, including a “reanalysis dataset that reconstructs past weather over the entire Earth from millions of observations, and a specialized database containing key information about the track, intensity, size and wind radii of nearly 5,000 observed cyclones from the past 45 years.”

    According to Google, it tested its model on storms from 2023 and 2024, and found that its five-day prediction managed to predict the path of a storm with more accuracy than most other models, coming about 140km or 90 miles closer to the ultimate location of the cyclone than the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ ensemble model, which is considered the most accurate model available. Now it can point to a storm that it tracked in real-time as proof of concept, though there is no reason to think AI tools like this will completely displace the other approaches at this stage.

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    AJ Dellinger

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  • Want To Run Your Business Better? Then Run These 3 Reports. | Entrepreneur

    Want To Run Your Business Better? Then Run These 3 Reports. | Entrepreneur

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    Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

    As a lifelong accountant, I have what may be surprising news for you: your monthly financial statements aren’t very effective.

    Sure, they can help. It’s good to look back at the prior month and the year-to-date results so that you can determine if your company is profitable and also where there may be overspending. Don’t ignore your monthly financial statements. But take them with a grain of salt: they’re usually prepared well after the fact (for many of my clients, it’s weeks after the month ends). So although they serve as a good post-mortem review of results, they’re not so useful to run a business in real-time.

    So what is useful? I’ve found that these three reports are core for the managers of my best clients who run profitable businesses. Why? Because they tell the manager what’s going on right now and what is likely to happen in the near future.

    Related: The 5 Most Important Accounting Reports for Your Small Business

    The flash report

    Maybe you’ve never heard of this report because it’s not a common name among accountants. But for my best clients their “flash report” is a critical tool for keeping their real-time pulse on the business.

    The flash report is an aggregation of data from many different sources. It’s usually produced 2-3 times a week and put together not necessarily by a finance person but by a good administrative person who has access to the data needed. I have clients where the administrative person creates this report manually (literally) on a piece of paper and leaves it on the desk of the owner. I have others that do it by spreadsheet or via email. The report brings together numbers from various places that are key to the current operations of a business.

    These numbers vary by industry, but for the most part, they include current cash, receivables and payables. The report also shows year-to-date sales, backlog, purchase orders and open quotes. It shows year-to-date hours and overtime. Some of my clients like to see updated data about specific ongoing jobs or product lines.

    The most important thing about this report is benchmarking. Every current number has a corresponding number from its prior period. For example, if cash on hand is $500, what was cash on hand at the end of last year? Or if year-to-date sales are $10,000, what were the same sales at this point last year? Are we ahead or behind? You have to benchmark your current numbers against a similar period to put things into context.

    The pipeline report

    Where the flash report takes numbers from different sources, the pipeline report should be taking numbers from your customer relationship management (CRM) system — which is an application every company should have. When you’re using your CRM system the right way, you will be tracking quotes and opportunities, as well as tasks and emails connected to those things.

    My best clients leverage this data weekly and review a pipeline report. The pipeline report lists all open opportunities usually by “hot,” “warm” and “cold” designations, which are internally defined. It shows the dollar value of the opportunity, the date it’s estimated to close and the “weight” or chance it will turn into a sale. It also shows who’s working on the opportunity and the historical and future tasks that need to be done to complete the opportunity.

    When used the right way, the pipeline report is a tool for managing the sales team and seeing who is doing what and how effectively. This report is a sales forecast and serves as a critical instrument for knowing whether growth or contraction is in the cards. If you produce this report every week, you’ll not only be able to better direct your under-performing sales people towards more productive activities, but you’ll also have your thumb on the blood flow of your business: your expected revenues.

    There are other great reports you can run from your CRM system, but that’s a topic for another day. Relying on the pipeline report will not only help to increase and manage your company’s expected revenues but also increase the usage of your CRM system.

    The rolling cash forecast report

    If you’ve got a great pipeline report, then good for you — you are forecasting your revenues. But just forecasting revenues isn’t enough. My best clients forecast their cash flow. Why? Because successful people are always looking ahead. They don’t like surprises. They want to know what’s coming, so they can make decisions in advance and better manage the future to the full extent. Sales are important, but in the end, it’s all about cash. Do you know what your cash will be just 90 days from now? You probably don’t. But you should. And to know this, you’ll need to have a rolling cash forecast report.

    Putting this report together isn’t so tough. Here’s how:

    First, estimate your overhead over the next 90 days. You know this: it’s your payroll, utilities, rent, internet: all the recurring costs you’re already paying.

    Next, estimate your typical margin on a sale, which takes into account the direct materials and labor needed. I realize that this may differ based on many factors, from the product line to the time of year. But this is not science — it’s just an estimate. So come up with a reasonable number.

    Assuming you’re producing a reliable pipeline report, you’ve got your sales forecast for the next 90 days. There are sales that are not on this report because they’ve already closed and are considered open orders. Add this. Then talk with your sales team to further refine this 90 days sales forecast.

    Now, take your estimated sales, multiply the estimated margin and deduct your estimated overhead. You’re almost there!

    Think about any anomalies over the next 90 days — an estimated tax payment, a big supplier check that will be due, etc. — and figure that in. Take your beginning cash, add/deduct the net results from the above and you’ll have your ending cash in 90 days. Voila! You’ve now done a rolling cash forecast.

    Do a rolling cash forecast every month. It’ll be tough at first, but easier after you get it down. Trust me when I tell you it will change your life. No longer will you be running your business in the dark. You will have a better idea of the future and can make better decisions because of it.

    In summary, there are lots of reports that are great for a business. But most involve analyzing the past. My best clients do this. But the reports that really help them focus on the present — and the future — are the reports I’ve listed above. Get in the practice of producing these reports and you’ll find yourself running a more profitable, sustainable organization.

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    Gene Marks

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  • 4 Ways Entrepreneurs Can Deal with Cash Flow Problems in 2023

    4 Ways Entrepreneurs Can Deal with Cash Flow Problems in 2023

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    Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

    Cash flow problems are an unfortunate — but all too common — reality for entrepreneurs and small to medium-sized businesses (SMBs). This is especially clear in times of uncertainty and rapid change. The Russo-Ukrainian War, for example, has been particularly hard on SMBs due to rising fuel costs, government sanctions and global supply chain disruption.

    Cash flow problems can have many causes, but the end result is always the same — a lack of available liquidity to cover daily operational costs, such as paying suppliers and meeting payroll obligations. Failing to meet these basic operational needs impacts a business’s ability to achieve or maintain profitability, which often leads to knock-on effects of its own.

    But it’s important to realize that cash flow problems are not inevitable. And when they do occur, they are not always insurmountable. That said, here are a few possible solutions for SMB owners when dealing with cashflow problems (or even avoiding them entirely).

    Related: The 5 Worst Cash-Flow Mistakes Small-Business Owners Make

    1. Simplify your billing & invoicing process

    According to a YouGov survey, 55% of U.S. SMBs are currently waiting on money that is tied up in late invoices. And the SMBs that are waiting have been waiting for a long time — 25% of U.S. SMBs are paid more than 20 days late on average.

    Making it easy and rewarding for your clients and customers to pay you quickly is one of the best ways to minimize cash flow problems. There is no silver bullet here — each business needs to find the solution that works best for them.

    One of the most effective methods is overhauling your payment system to make it simpler for clients and customers to make timely payments. This might mean adding one-click payment links to invoices or allowing alternative payment options (e.g. direct debits, installment payments or recurring payments).

    Another effective method involves updating your payment terms to include incentives for early payments and penalties for late payments. For example, you might offer a 2% discount on invoices paid within 5 days and charge 2% interest for each month an invoice payment is late.

    This two-pronged approach helps encourage customers and clients to prioritize timely payments that support healthy cash flow.

    2. Create a cash flow forecast

    A cash flow forecast is a document (usually running for a period of 12 months) that estimates monthly inflows and outflows. It’s an essential tool for any SMB since it allows you to identify potential cash flow problems before major issues arise, identify the best time for large purchases or investments and gauge the impact of changes in income or outgoings.

    Creating a cash flow forecast is relatively simple. You can start with a specialized accounting tool that has preloaded reports and features for cash flow management and forecasting. This automates the process and makes it much easier for businesses to stay on top of their cash flow.

    Alternatively, you can create a forecast manually in Excel or Google Sheets — all you need is a clear overview of your expected and actual income, expenditure, assets, and liabilities.

    Related: 6 Hacks for Getting Clients to Pay You Faster

    3. Build up cash reserves

    In personal finance, the concept of an emergency fund is relatively common knowledge. Building up a cash reserve for your business works in much the same way. By setting aside money in a separate, interest-bearing account, SMBs can ensure they always have access to the funds needed to cover costs and eliminate the need to strike off the business.

    The size of your emergency fund will depend on factors like the nature of your business and where it’s located. As a general guideline, it’s recommended to set aside around 2–6 months of essential operating costs.

    Building up a cash reserve can be difficult, but it’s worth persevering with. It’s one of the best ways to protect your business from shutting down and other serious problems related to poor cash flow management.

    4. Negotiate with creditors

    According to the most recent available data, 73% of U.S.-based SMBs are in debt — whether to banks, suppliers or creditors.

    When cash flow slows, it might be time to negotiate the terms of your existing contracts. This can be tricky, since SMBs may not have the same negotiating power as larger businesses. That said, some suppliers are more than happy to strike a deal — especially if you explain your situation honestly and show flexibility.

    You may be able to pay off debt with smaller (but more frequent) payments, negotiate reduced interest rates, barter goods, and services or negotiate payment terms for large orders.

    Similarly, if you’re expecting a bill but cannot pay it in full, you might be able to strike a deal with your creditor. For example, you could offer to pay part of the total now and then make regular payments until the debt is cleared. As always, communication and honesty are key!

    Cash flow management is a critical part of running an SMB — and it always pays to be proactive. By following the steps outlined above, you can take control of your cash flow and prevent strike-offs. Additionally, as with any important business process, it’s worth seeking professional advice or using specialized tools to help streamline the process. This can make it easier to keep track of cash flow, as well as spot potential problems before they become major issues for your business.

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    Pritom Das

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  • Happy New Year’s Eve? Many Business Owners Dread It — Here’s Why.

    Happy New Year’s Eve? Many Business Owners Dread It — Here’s Why.

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    Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

    For most people, New Year’s Eve is a big night of celebration, a chance to end the holiday season with a bang, a time to reflect on the year before and to make resolutions about the year ahead. But unfortunately, for some of my clients, New Year’s Eve is not a celebratory occasion. Some would even regard it as the worst night of the year. But, why?

    “Because every year I’m reminded that New Year’s Eve is the end of the year,” one client recently told me. “Which means having to start again at the beginning.”

    Despite all the reports of an economic slowdown, the fact is that most of my clients had a pretty good 2022. But none of them will say that it came easy and this year was particularly hard, what with higher inflation, rising interest rates and continuing economic challenges. But they battled and hustled and worked hard to make the year a success. So what’s their reward at the end of the year?

    They get to do it all over again. Yay! All of our prior accomplishments were short-lived. They’re already in the past. They’ve been wiped clean. January 1st sets everything back to the beginning. And for many business owners, the future is uncertain and unsettling. That’s why they hate New Year’s Eve.

    But it doesn’t have to be this way. If you’re like many of my clients and dread the beginning of a new year I’ve got a way for you to ease your concerns: forecast. Ask yourself this question on December 31st: Do you know what your cash will be on March 31, a mere 90 days from now? If you can reasonably predict your future cash, then won’t feel a little less uncertain about the future?

    Related: 7 Must-Dos Before the End of the Year

    Of course, you will. That’s because when you know the future you can make a plan. and when you have a future plan you can feel better about the present. And you can do all of this with a simple, basic cash forecast. It’s not as hard as you think. All it takes is these four simple steps:

    Step 1: Determine your overhead for the next 90 days

    This should be easy: You know what your payroll will be. You know your lease, debt and rent payments. You know what your utility, internet and other operating costs should be. I’m not asking you to forecast this for all of the year. Just the next 90 days. Write this down.

    Step 2: Agree on a reasonable estimated margin — or two

    This doesn’t have to be exact. Forecasting is an art, not a science. By now I’m pretty sure you know how much gross profit you make on a typical sale which is the sale price less the direct cost of materials and labor to make or deliver it. If you have a lot of products take an average. If you have just a few product lines and it’s easy to calculate, then use two margins and split it amongst your sales accordingly. Again, this is just an estimate. Maybe it’s about 20%. Or 30%. Whatever it is, pick a reasonable number.

    Related: 3 Stress-Reducing E-commerce Tips to Prepare You for the Holiday Rush

    Step 3: Now the “hard” part: Forecast your cash sales

    I put quotes around “hard” because every client I have thinks this is difficult. But it’s not, really. You’re just thinking of 90 days, not the whole year. I’m sure you have a listing of open quotes and open orders (which haven’t been converted to sales). You’ve got receivables that will convert to cash during that period. You probably have some sort of pipeline report from your customer relationship management system. You can talk to your sale team to better understand what deals are cooking. And, assuming you were in business before the pandemic, you’ve got historical sales from similar periods. Put all that together and I bet you’ll come up with a reasonable estimate of sales over the coming three months.

    So now, take those sales. Apply the estimated margin against them and then deduct your overhead. Congratulations: You’ve now forecasted your operating cash. But you’re not completely finished. There’s one final step.

    Step 4: Consider any extraordinary items

    Do you have any big debt payments coming up? Large purchases? A pending large sale? Estimated tax payments? Bonuses? Is there anything else significant you think of that’s out of the ordinary? Figure that in too.

    And there you have it, your final cash profit for the next 90 days.

    Take your cash on New Year’s eve, apply the final number to it (hopefully it’s positive) and you’ll know your cash 90 days from now. Not so tough. What’s tough is doing it the first couple of times. Once you get the process down, and you’re doing it every month, something big will happen: you will feel better. Why? Because you’ll know the future. And that’s what my best clients do. They don’t like surprises. They’re always looking ahead. They do their best to know what’s coming later so they can make their plans now. They take the time each month to forecast their cash because they don’t like to run their businesses in the dark.

    Forecasting is easier than you think. And it’s a critical management tool to help you run your business. Done consistently you will find yourself making much smarter decisions. But best of all, you’ll find yourself enjoying New Year’s Eve much, much more in the future. So Happy New Year.

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    Gene Marks

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