Tag: forecast model

>> JUST GETTING IN THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE 05:00AM ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM FAIR. NOT NOW. THIS IS REALLY JUST MAINTAINING STRENGTH, BUT IT’S OVER 300 MILES NOW EAST-NORTHEAST OF EVEN BERMUDA. SO THIS IS JUST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AND IT IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 12 MILES PER HOUR. SO NOT LOOKING ALL TOO IMPRESSIVE. AND WITH THE LATEST SPAGHETTI PLOTS, WE DO HAVE A REALLY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PUNCHING THAT THIS CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST HEADING TOWARD THE FAR NORTHERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WHERE I DO EXPECT IT TO EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SO THE LATEST FORECAST CONE SHOWING THAT WHAT WE COULD SEE SOME WOBBLES IN INTENSITY, PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL STRENGTHENING, NOT FOR LONG. WE DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS OF HER. AND WE EXPECT THIS TO EVENTUALLY ON WEDNESDAY TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MEETING. IT WILL HAVE LOST ALL OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IT POSES NO THREAT TO THE U.S.. THAT IS, OF COURSE NOT. THE ONLY THING I’M MONITORING THIS MORNING ON TOP OF TROPICAL STORM FAIR NON-LOCAL INTO THE SOUTH OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. A DISTURBANCE WITH LOW ODDS FOR DEVELOPMENT. WE’RE TALKING HAD DECREASED OVER THE WEEKEND TO JUST 10%. SO OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS, EVEN THE NEXT WEEK, LOW ODDS TO SEE SOME SORT OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THIS IS STILL PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS. EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE IS DECREASING A BIT THIS MORNING AND FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS, AT LEAST SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT E DAY TODAY, EVEN INTO TOMORROW AS THIS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST. SO AS OF NOW, NOT SEEING HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS EVER ACTUALLY DEVELOPS. BUT WE’RE GOING TO BE STAYING ON TOP OF IT, OF COURSE, AT THIS POINT IN HURRICANE SEASON. WE’RE ALSO 3RD THROUGH OUR STORM NAMES LIST. THE NEXT NAME ON THE LIST. GABRIEL AND THEN UMBERTO. SO WE’RE GONNA BE WATCHING FOR THAT. AND KEEP IN MIND, WE’RE JUST ABOUT 2 WEEKS OUT FROM THE STATISTICAL PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON. ALL RIGHT, LIVE RADAR, SWEEPING, CLEAR WATCHING SOME OF THOSE SPOTTY SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY. BUT MOST OF US IN GREAT SHAPE AFTER A VERY SOGGY WEEKEND, HOWEVER, WITH EVEN SOME FLOODING CONCERNS FOR PARTS OF LEE COUNTY. SO WHO IS FAVORED TO SEE THE RAIN AGAIN TODAY? WHILE COASTAL SPOTS, SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AND WE’RE LOOKING AT THAT POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORM. SO WE DO NOT EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS WHAT WE SAW SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, YOU ARE STILL GOING TO WANT THE UMBRELLA HANDY. WE’RE LOOKING AT A RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN STILL EVERY SINGLE DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK. SO NOT SEEING THE RAINY SEASON WEAKENING ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT, THE RAINY SEASON DOESN’T COME TO AN END UNTIL USUALLY THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. SO WE STILL HAVE QUITE A WAYS TO GO TEMPERATURE NO RELIEF THERE. LOW TO MID 90’S EVERY SINGLE DAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70’S. SO PRETTY SEASONAL. I DON’T EXPECT RECORD HEAT, BUT WE’RE ALSO NOT GETTING IN ON ANY SORT OF COOL DOW