Credit: Orange County Mayor Jerry L. Demings/Facebook
David Jolly leads Jerry Demings in one of the first major polls of the Democratic primary for governor of Florida in 2026, but the majority of 400 registered Democratic voters surveyed are undecided.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows Jolly, a former Republican member of Congress, leading Demings, mayor of Orange County, 23%-19%. But 58% are undecided in the August primary.
It’s a little clearer in the GOP primary in the Mason-Dixon survey, with Naples U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds with a huge lead over three other Republicans.
Donalds gets 37% of the vote, with Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (now officially in the race), a distant second with 7%. Former House Speaker Paul Renner is at 4% and investment firm CEO James Fishback is at 3%.
However, nearly half (49%) say they are undecided in the Republican race.
Other polls taken in recent months show Donalds leading in the GOP race, with his numbers rising exponentially when pollsters inform Republican voters that Donalds has been endorsed by President Donald Trump.
“It should be noted that Donalds is the only candidate in either race whose name is recognized by more than half of his party’s voters,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker. ” That name recognition advantage is an important factor behind his frontrunner status.”
The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy from Jan. 8 through Jan. 13, 2026. It was made up of two separate statewide samples – one of 400 registered Democratic voters and one of 400 registered Republican voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 5%.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ popularity has dipped in the newest public opinion survey conducted by veteran polling firm Mason-Dixon.
The survey of 625 registered Florida voters shows the governor at 50% approval and 46% disapproval. That’s down from a Mason-Dixon survey taken last March, when he was at 53%, and the lowest ranking taken by Mason-Dixon since July 2020, when he was just at just 45%, following his opening up the state during the height of the COVID crisis.
The survey was conducted from Jan. 8 through Jan. 12. The margin for error was at +/- 4 percent.
Brad Coker, the Mason-Dixon pollster, pointed to “notable drops” among several voter groups from a 2025 survey. Among voters with no party affiliation, DeSantis approval rating has dropped 10 points, from 51% to 41%. He’s dropped with Hispanic voters as well, declining from 57% to 49%, and among black voters from 16% to 7%.
He is also now under water with women, with 49% disapproving and only 45% approving.
Coker says there are several reasons why the governor’s numbers might be dropping, including national trends for Republicans and voter fatigue as he begins his eighth and final year in office.
“With no immediate announced political plans, DeSantis’ popularity drop probably has no immediate impact,” Coker writes. “Overall, a 50% approval rating is not bad — it is simply somewhat lower than what he has enjoyed throughout his tenure.”
The poll results are being released as the governor enters his last year in office. On Tuesday, he presented his final State of the State address.
“Jay’s a good guy. He served this country admirably as a Green Beret. He has a great conservative record in the Florida Senate,” DeSantis said during an appearance in Davie. “I don’t know what he’s going to announce or not announce. You know, my role, obviously, I’m focused on the State of the State (address, which will be given Tuesday) and some other things. If I get involved in the primary, you know, you’ll know it. It’ll be at a time and place of my choosing, and so we’ll see.”
When he made the lieutenant governor appointment, DeSantis praised Collins for supporting issues such as combating illegal immigration and revamping election laws, while also calling him a “warrior” for assisting rescue workers in areas of the state hit by hurricanes and participating in efforts to rescue Floridians in Israel.
“I think he’s been one of the most productive senators we have had in modern Florida history,” DeSantis said in August. “And on all the big issues, he not only was an ally of mine, he was standing up for you.”
The lieutenant governor position had been vacant since February when Jeanette Nuñez — DeSantis’ 2018 and 2022 running mate — was named interim president of Florida International University. She was later named president.
A political committee led by Collins, Quiet Professionals FL, had just over $922,000 in cash on hand as of Sept. 30. A separate Collins-chaired political committee, Keep Florida Strong PC, opened in August but had not raised money as of Dec. 31, according to information posted on the state Division of Elections website.
By comparison, as of Sept. 30, Donalds had about $27 million in cash on hand in his Friends of Byron Donalds political committee.
Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings and former Congressman David Jolly are the highest-profile Democrats running for governor.
Democratic Governors Association spokesman Kevin Donohoe said in a news release that “Collins and his Republican opponents only offer more of the failed status quo that has left working families behind and turned Florida into one of the least affordable states in the country.”
Credit: Photo via Congressman Byron Donalds/Facebook
A new public opinion survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters shows Naples U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is running away with the 2026 Republican race for governor.
Donalds, who was elected to Florida’s 19th Congressional District in 2020, leads Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis — who has not declared a candidacy for governor — by “only” 13 points, 39%-26%, in a poll conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, a GOP political polling firm.
However, when voters are informed that Donalds has already been endorsed by President Donald Trump, his lead swells to 58 points, 68%-10%.
When GOP voters were asked how they would vote were the gubernatorial race held today, Donalds leads investment firm CEO James Fishback, 47%-5%. His lead leaps to 76%-6% over Fishback when voters are informed about the Trump endorsement. Former House Speaker Paul Renner gets 4%, but that number drops to 1% when informed about the Trump endorsement.
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins has discussed entering the race, but has yet to do so. The pollsters write that despite a high-profile series of television ads promoting him that aired in the last part of 2025, the needle hasn’t moved at all for the LG.
“Any sugar high from Jay Collins’ multimillion ad buy has completely dissipated,” they write. “Virtually no RPVs [Republican primary voters] recall seeing anything about Collins (only 16%) and Donalds crushes him in every ballot permutation.”
There have been no major polls of the Democratic primary race, which features former GOP U.S. Rep. David Jolly and Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings.
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates conducted the survey of 600 likely GOP Florida voters from Jan. 4-6. The margin of error is +4.0%.
The state says the testing results show that the heavy metals included mercury, arsenic, lead, and cadmium.
The 34-page bill would presume certain non-citizens are at fault in car accidents, severely restrict their employment, and prevent Florida banks from loaning them money
HB 991 is sponsored by state Reps. Jenna Persons-Mulicka, R-Fort Myers, and Dana Trabulsy, R- Fort Pierce
Can anyone stop Byron Donalds from becoming Florida’s next governor?
There’s still more than 10 months until Floridians elect a successor to Ron DeSantis, but there’s no question the Naples Republican is in the pole position after his campaign announced Thursday that he has raised more than $40 million since February.
How impressive is that?
“For perspective, that is 2½ times what then-candidate Ron DeSantis raised and $3 million more than Adam Putnam raised in total in the last open Republican gubernatorial primary in 2018,” writes Ryan Smith, the Donalds’ campaign’s chief strategist, in a memo published Thursday.
Donalds also continues to dominate in most public-opinion polls of the candidates running in the August 2026 Republican primary, despite having yet to air a single television ad.
A survey of 800 Republican primary voters taken Dec. 8-9 by The American Promise showed Donalds with a 27-point lead over Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, 38%-9%. (While Collins is not a declared candidate for governor, a political committee has been running ads for weeks in certain key Florida media markets touting him as such. Pollster Ryan Tyson said in a memo that the survey was taken to determine whether those ads helped Collins at all. It appears they have not).
In addition to being endorsed by Donald Trump, Donalds is backed by Florida U.S. Sen. Rick Scott as well as 17 of the state’s 20 members of Congress and 63 members of the Florida House of Representatives.
The other major Republican candidates are former House Speaker Paul Renner and investment firm CEO James Fishback.
Former GOP U.S. Rep. David Jolly and Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings are the leading contenders for the Democratic nomination for governor in 2026.
Gov. Ron DeSantis unveiled a $117.3 billion state budget proposal Wednesday, his eighth and last, that includes new money for a Make America Healthy Again commission, transfers part of the University of South Florida to New College, and bolsters military installations in hopes of deterring oil drilling off the Florida coast.
The proposal, which runs roughly $3 billion higher than the current-year budget, would allocate a record $1.56 billion for teacher salary increases, $14.3 billion for infrastructure and transportation projects, and $1.4 billion for Everglades and water quality projects.
“Since I became governor, we have run budget surpluses, reduced the state’s legacy debt by more than 50%, and enacted record tax relief,” DeSantis said in a statement, hours after his Orlando budget rollout. “Today I announced the ‘Floridians First’ Budget, which will keep Florida on the course of fiscal responsibility and delivers on the priorities that have made Florida the greatest state in America.”
His proposal would eliminate 354 vacant positions — 225 of which are county health roles — and launch novel testing of contaminants in food with a $5 million allocation toward Florida’s new MAHA Commission, co-chaired by First Lady Casey DeSantis and Lieutenant Gov. Jay Collins.
The commission emerged in September as a way for Florida to align with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy’s nationwide push to “make America healthy again” through targeting processed foods and chemicals, and questioning water fluoridation.
The governor proposed a bill, too, that would transfer land from University of South Florida’s Sarasota-Manatee campus to New College of Florida. DeSantis proposed last session that those Ringling Museum facilities be transferred to New College.
The governor’s budget would expand the school guardian program, providing security to K-12 schools, colleges, and universities, with about $6 million to implement it.
Another provision is aimed at an emerging battle between Florida officials and the Trump administration. DeSantis wants to allocate $6 million to the Florida Defense Support Commission and $1.5 million for the Defense Reinvestment Grant Program to counter the White House’s plan to explore for oil off the Florida Gulf coast.
“This investment is especially critical as Florida continues to advocate that leasing of oil and gas developments off Florida’s Gulf coast may negatively impact the Gulf Testing Range,” the governor’s office wrote in the budget proposal.
The document referred to concerns that the military’s ability to train in the Panhandle would be severely hindered by oil rigs near their training areas. Florida has multiple military bases in Panama City and the Pensacola area.
One of the big items being sought by DeSantis is $1.56 billion targeted for teacher pay raises, nearly 15% more toward increases than last year. The governor emphasized that the stand-alone item for teacher pay can ensure that money appropriated from Tallahassee goes to the classroom and benefits students.
“The classroom, 90% of it is what teacher do you have standing in front of the classroom. That’s the most important thing,” DeSantis said.
Fiscal strength
DeSantis, who is term-limited from running for reelection, touted the state’s fiscal strength, noting that his proposed spending plan earmarks $118 million for the Budget Stabilization Fund, also known as the state’s “rainy day” fund. DeSantis has tripled the amount in the fund since first taking office. The fund could reach the constitutional limit of $5 billion next year if the Legislature approves.
“Our overall footprint from a government perspective is that we have the lowest number of state government workers per capita and we either are the lowest or the second-lowest in state spending per capita of all 50 states. So, the outcomes are superior to states that are spending 25, 50, 100 percent more per capita … ,” DeSantis said.
The 2026 regular legislative session begins Jan.13. Although the Legislature will consider thousands of bills during the 60-day session, there is just one they are required to pass: the General Appropriations Act, or the budget. If lawmakers are unable to pass a budget within that time, the Legislature can extend the session or call a special session.
Homestead property tax relief
DeSantis focused much of his energy on the proposed spending plan but also used the opportunity to push for property tax reductions for homestead properties in the coming session. DeSantis’ budget would set aside $300 million to “support ongoing property tax relief conversations.”
DeSantis called the issue “huge” and said he’d have more to say about it “going forward.”
“But we have an opportunity to give people relief on this. So, we’re going to be working, you know, I know there’s been a lot of great work that is being discussed, you know, I’ve been talking with some of the senators, but I know some House members are working on a lot of stuff. We got to be bold, we got to be strong, and we got to do something that’s going to have a meaningful difference in people’s lives and the lives of families. And, you know, otherwise, you know, it just ain’t gonna it ain’t gonna fly,” DeSantis said.
The governor’s budget bill would amend a 2023 statute that made it illegal for a governmental entity, the state group health insurance plan, or a state-contracted health care provider to spend state dollars on gender-affirming or -conforming care.
The bill would expand that law to ban all governmental entities from spending tax dollars on “efforts which advance, promote, entertain, or support fundamental considerations of social justice, including those focused on critical race theory; diversity, equity, and inclusion; or that otherwise defend the concept that mankind is inherently racist, sexist, or oppressive, whether consciously or unconsciously, solely by virtue of his or her race or sex.”
DeSantis’s proposed budget bill would prevent governmental entities from spending funds to advance, promote, entertain, or support Net Zero policies, carbon taxes and assessments, and carbon emission trading programs, commonly known as cap-and-trade or cap-and-tax programs. The bill would amend statutes to say such programs are “detrimental to the state’s energy security and economic interests. “
He’s also suggesting $693,455 — nearly identical to the current budget — for the State Board of Immigration, a commission created during the 2025 session to oversee Florida’s immigration laws and ensure statewide enforcement and compliance.
The governor’s budget would expand the school guardian program, providing security to K-12 schools, colleges, and universities and about $6 million to implement it.
Jay Waagmeester contributed to this report.
Florida Phoenix is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Contact Michael Moline for questions: info@floridaphoenix.com. Follow Florida Phoenix on Facebook and Twitter.
Credit: Orange County Mayor Jerry L. Demings/Facebook
Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings on Thursday formally announced his bid for governor, setting up a Democratic primary fight next year against former Congressman David Jolly.
Demings, a former Orlando police chief and former Orange County sheriff who opened a campaign account for the gubernatorial race last week, issued a statement early Thursday that focused on a need to make Florida more affordable.
“Our state has become more expensive and less fair for everyone, all while power is being stripped away from local communities that know their residents best,” Demings said. “Florida needs a change. We need a different type of governor who puts delivering results before grabbing headlines and petty political fights.”
Demings, who has been Orange County mayor since 2018, was expected to hold an event later Thursday in Orlando to further launch the campaign.
With Gov. Ron DeSantis unable to run in 2026 because of term limits, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds and former state House Speaker Paul Renner are seeking the Republican nomination for governor.
Jolly, a former Republican who kicked off his campaign in June, welcomed Demings to the race Thursday.
“All of Florida — Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike — deserves a spirited Democratic Party primary that puts voters first, one rooted in real solutions for the affordability of housing and health care, the future of public education, protecting personal freedoms, and restoring trust and competence in government,” Jolly said in a prepared statement.
The tone Thursday was different from a memo that Jolly’s campaign sent earlier in the week outlining “the choice before Democrats.”
Touting Jolly, the memo asked who can unite the party, break nearly three decades of Republican control of the state and “has the credibility and message to defeat Republican extremism — not with partisan rhetoric, but with practical ideas that connect across political lines?”
The memo said that “for 30 years, Florida Democrats have repeated the same losing formula: Campaigns built around consultants instead of communities, focused on fundraisers and corporate boardrooms instead of front porches and town halls. We’ve ignored voters, chased special-interest money, and prioritized the political class over everyday Floridians.”
It also included former U.S. Rep. Val Demings, who is married to Jerry Demings, among “well intended, dedicated nominees” who “still came up short” in statewide contests. Val Demings, who served in Congress from 2017 to 2023, lost a bid for the U.S. Senate in 2022 to then-Sen. Marco Rubio, who is now U.S. Secretary of State.
Asked about the contest Wednesday, Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried said having two prominent candidates will provide an “opportunity for the people of our state to hear from our statewide candidates, to share their vision, ask the tough questions.”
Fried said the party’s job is to build “the infrastructure that no matter who the Democrats in our primary decide to choose, we are going to be ready to build a coalition to again share the vision of what the next chapter of Florida looks like.”
Whoever emerges from the Democratic primary is expected to be the underdog in the general election, as Republicans have huge edges in fundraising and voter registration. The last Democrat to win a gubernatorial race was Lawton Chiles, who was re-elected in 1994.
The Republican Party of Florida greeted Demings’ entry into the contest with a news release saying his campaign is “destined to flop.”
“Under Republican leadership, Florida is booming, freedom is prevailing, and Republicans hold a record voter advantage,” GOP Chairman Evan Power said in the release.
As of Sept. 30, Florida had about 5.5 million “active” Republican registered voters and nearly 4.12 million Democrats. Another 3.38 million voters had no party affiliation.
The Republican Governors Association took a shot at Democrats, saying Demings opening a campaign account was a sign “Florida Democrats are clearly unimpressed with David Jolly’s Charlie Crist impersonation.”
Crist, a former congressman who won statewide races including the 2006 gubernatorial contest as a Republican, was the unsuccessful Democratic gubernatorial nominee in 2014 and 2022.
Equal Ground, a Black-led, nonprofit organization, noted that with Demings entering the campaign, Florida could have Black candidates topping the ticket for both major parties in 2026. Donalds, who has the backing of President Donald Trump, is Black.
“This moment represents a defining chapter for Florida … It stands as a powerful milestone in a state where Black voices, leadership, and civic power have for far too long faced systemic barriers towards progress,” Equal Ground said in an email.
Confirming rumors of a potential run, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings officially filed paperwork to enter Florida’s highly anticipated gubernatorial race next year, with current Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis term-limited from running for reelection.
Demings, a former Orlando Police Chief and Orange County Sheriff, is running for governor as a Democrat in a state that’s trended increasingly red in recent years. He’s the second high-profile Democrat to launch a bid for the seat, challenging former Rep. David Jolly (a former Republican turned Democrat) for the Democratic nomination.
Demings, the husband of former U.S. Rep. Val Demings, is reportedly expecting to share a formal announcement of his campaign for governor at the Rosen Centre later this week. Records publicly available through the state Division of Elections website show Demings officially filed his candidate paperwork on Friday, allowing him to begin raising money for his campaign.
A couple of high-profile Republican candidates have already filed to run for governor as well, setting up what is likely to be a competitive election to succeed the right wing’s anti-woke champion DeSantis.
First Lady Casey DeSantis, Ron’s Republican wife caught up in a scandal involving alleged theft of government funds earlier this year, is also reportedly mulling over a run for governor, while Lt. Gov. Jay Collins — a former state senator — has also teased a run but hasn’t yet filed paperwork.
Demings is the mayor of one of the last Democratic-leaning counties in Florida, and one of the largest. Orange County, located in Central Florida, is also one of the Sunshine State’s tourism capitals, home to Disney World, Universal Orlando Studios, SeaWorld and other major tourist attractions that collectively draw in more than 75 million visitors annually.
Recent polling published last week found that Republican Byron Donalds and Casey DeSantis currently share nearly identical leads in voter sentiment on the candidates running for governor. A survey from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Lab found Democrat Jolly trailing Donalds by 11 percentage points, 45 percent to 34 percent, while Jolly trails DeSantis by 13 points. Survey respondents were also asked about Demings, then just a rumored candidate. Results show he also trailed Donalds and DeSantis by similar margins.
“We’re still a year away from the midterm election, and there are quite a few undecided voters,” said Dr. Michael Binder, a political science professor and faculty director for the Public Opinion Lab. “At this point, it looks like both Republicans are more than 10 points ahead of whoever emerges on the Democratic side.”
Demings hasn’t been afraid to challenge Florida’s current governor, and his allies, as it is. After facing scrutiny from Florida’s Department of Government Efficiency (“DOGE”) task force, Demings defended the county’s spending habits, arguing that while the county’s budget has increased in recent years, so has the county’s population and “the myriad challenges that we face” — with rising homelessness being one of them.
Demings also called on DeSantis last week to dip into the state’s emergency funding to fund federal food assistance, known as SNAP, for Florida’s nearly 3 million recipients. As a result of the federal government shutdown that began Oct. 1, the Trump administration has declined to utilize its contingency funding to fund SNAP, a program that serves more than 41 million low-income Americans, including many seniors, children and people with disabilities.
“In Orange County, more than 175,000 residents depend on SNAP benefits and will lose access to funds needed to purchase groceries for their families starting November 1st if immediate action is not taken,” Demings wrote in an Oct. 29 letter addressed to Gov. DeSantis. The federal and state governments, he added, “have a responsibility to ensure residents have access to nutritious food,” noting that the Orange County government alone has dedicated $5.3 million in funding to the region’s largest hunger relief organization this year, Second Harvest Food Bank.
“This is a fundamental right, and we must not allow our most vulnerable populations to be deprived,” Demings wrote.
DeSantis has rejected Democrats’ pleas for him to declare a state of emergency over the SNAP freeze (despite several other governors deciding to do so). Facing growing pressure, DeSantis finally conceded Monday that the state’s agriculture department would “be doing more” to help SNAP recipients, the Tampa Bay Times reported, without offering any specifics on how they will do so or what that will look like.
Although a federal judge last week ordered the Trump administration to use contingency funds to cover SNAP benefits for November — even with the ongoing government shutdown — it’s unclear when that will trickle down to Floridians through the state’s administrator. Plus, as NBC News reports, the contingency funds agreed to by the administration on Monday are only likely to cover “50% of eligible households’ current allotments.”
Demings was elected as Orange County’s first Black mayor in 2018, and won reelection in 2022 with about 60 percent of the vote in a four-way race. Florida’s gubernatorial race (still likely to see the entrance of additional candidates) is set for November 2026. The Democratic primary will take place next August.
Photo via Paul Renner/Facebook Credit: Photo via Paul Renner/Facebook
Ron DeSantis does not want former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner to succeed him as governor, he told a packed crowd Wednesday.
“I’m not supporting Paul Renner,” DeSantis said during a Valrico press conference, hours after the Palm Coast Republican filed for the 2026 governor’s race. Renner will face the only other high-profile Republican in the race, Donald Trump-endorsed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds.
“I think it was an ill-advised decision to enter the race,” DeSantis added.
His blunt take on the 48-year-old’s candidacy stood in contrast to Renner’s campaign launch earlier Wednesday, when the former House Speaker lauded himself as a top GOP figure who played a key role in advancing DeSantis’s agenda.
“As a legislator and Speaker of the House, I stood with Ron DeSantis to brand our state the Free State of Florida. I’m running for Governor so that when the DeSantis era comes to an end, we can defend our victories and solve the challenges that remain,” Renner said in a press release.
DeSantis doesn’t think so.
Less than a year before the gubernatorial primary, Renner is the second high-profile Republican DeSantis has publicly dismissed in the governor’s race. When Trump endorsed Donalds in February for Florida’s top job, DeSantis accused the three-term member of Congress of missing out on Florida’s “wins” during his tenure in Washington.
Still, Renner remains confident that he can “earn the support” of DeSantis as his campaign continues.
“The governor and I had a fantastic partnership making us the Free State of Florida, and I’m confident I’ll earn his support along the way,” he said in a statement to the Florida Phoenix.
DeSantis has yet to formally announce who he does support as a successor. For months, he juxtaposed Donalds and First Lady Casey DeSantis, touting her as a Rush Limbaugh-approved gubernatorial candidate while hinting that she might run. But those rumors faded to a faint whisper after Hope Florida, a charity championed by the First Lady, was barraged with scandalous financial allegations.
Recent reports suggest that Jay Collins, a former state senator elevated by DeSantis as lieutenant governor, will be DeSantis’ pick as his successor.
Renner’s gubernatorial hopes are not new to DeSantis.
In July, as the Jacksonville attorney was touting his pro-DeSantis record on social media, Renner told the governor he wanted to succeed him. The private conversation came after a brutally long legislative session marked by rare infighting between the governor and top GOP lawmakers, when Renner publicly sided with DeSantis on a controversial insurance revamp bill.
Citing distaste for diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, the former House Speaker also led the charge to block Santa Ono, a former University of Michigan president, from becoming president of the University of Florida.
A month-and-a-half later, Renner’s plan came to fruition. And evidenced by Wednesday’s pithy public questioning of Renner’s decision making, DeSantis isn’t pleased.
Come to think of it, it’s already started and Florida’s gubernatorial race is no exception.
Current Gov. Ron DeSantis will not be able to run again in 2026 due to term limits and more than 20 candidates have filed with the Florida Division of Elections to replace him in the governor’s mansion in the November 2026 election.
Others have announced they intend to run but haven’t yet filed the required paperwork.
Here’s a breakdown of who’s running for Florida governor.
Countdown to Florida general election 2026
Why can’t Ron DeSantis run for governor in 2026?
DeSantis was first elected in 2018 and began his term in office on Jan. 8, 2019. He was re-elected by a landslide in 2022.
Florida limits governors to two consecutive, four-year terms.
DeSantis will be ineligible to run again in the next Florida gubernatorial election in 2026 due to term limits. Florida governors cannot be elected to three consecutive terms.
DeSantis will leave office in January 2027 but could run for governor again in the future.
27 candidates have filed to run for Florida governor in 2026
As of Sept. 3, 27 candidates have filed to run for Florida’s governor in 2026, according to the Florida Department of Elections. The most recent candidate, Renner, filed Wednesday morning. By party, the candidates are:
Governor Ron DeSantis held a news conference early Monday morning after Hurricane Debby made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region, and he’s expected to speak again Monday afternoon. The governor was joined by the Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie shortly after landfall. The two are expected to address the state again at 3:30 p.m. as Tropical Storm Debby continues to work through the northern part of the state. First news conferenceShortly after then Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee, DeSantis laid out some important safety tips for Floridians as the hurricane continues its path across the northern portion of the state.DeSantis and Guthrie were both very adamant that post-storm deaths are preventable. They remind Floridians to stay put as the weather continues to pass, to avoid driving (especially on flooded roads) and to run generators at least 20 feet away from any home. While the governor said the amount of reported power outages was much less than previous hurricanes, he assured the population that officials were being deployed to restore power where needed. DeSantis also reminded residents the state is stocked with resources and rescue personnel, but doubted the need to use all of the assets.As the state continues to monitor the progress of the storm and the historic amount of rainfall the system is expected to dumb on the southeast, DeSantis told residents that Florida was prepared to respond appropriately. Second news conferenceDeSantis and Guthrie are expected to speak again from the State Emergency Operations Center as the system works across Florida and into Georgia.Just after 11 a.m., Hurricane Debby was downgraded to a tropical storm. The system continues to threaten the state with heavy winds and rains. WESH 2 will stream the news conference in the player above at 3:30 p.m. >> Track Tropical Storm Debby
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. —
Governor Ron DeSantis held a news conference early Monday morning after Hurricane Debby made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region, and he’s expected to speak again Monday afternoon.
The governor was joined by the Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie shortly after landfall. The two are expected to address the state again at 3:30 p.m. as Tropical Storm Debby continues to work through the northern part of the state.
First news conference
Shortly after then Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee, DeSantis laid out some important safety tips for Floridians as the hurricane continues its path across the northern portion of the state.
DeSantis and Guthrie were both very adamant that post-storm deaths are preventable. They remind Floridians to stay put as the weather continues to pass, to avoid driving (especially on flooded roads) and to run generators at least 20 feet away from any home.
While the governor said the amount of reported power outages was much less than previous hurricanes, he assured the population that officials were being deployed to restore power where needed. DeSantis also reminded residents the state is stocked with resources and rescue personnel, but doubted the need to use all of the assets.
As the state continues to monitor the progress of the storm and the historic amount of rainfall the system is expected to dumb on the southeast, DeSantis told residents that Florida was prepared to respond appropriately.
Second news conference
DeSantis and Guthrie are expected to speak again from the State Emergency Operations Center as the system works across Florida and into Georgia.
Just after 11 a.m., Hurricane Debby was downgraded to a tropical storm. The system continues to threaten the state with heavy winds and rains.
WESH 2 will stream the news conference in the player above at 3:30 p.m.
Facts and history seems to be short in the Florida Governor’s campaign against marijuana
For those who love exploring and have visited Hershey, Pennsylvania, you know it has a unique smell. Built to produce the famous candy bar, the area smells like chocolate. It is a factory town pumping out the order all day long. Few places in the country has issues with smells like Hersey. But if you listen to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, you would think over half the country has to deal certain odors.
DeSantis has called recreational cannabis a problem and lamented marijuana’s “stench”. This is in response to the state’s Supreme Court allowing recreational marijuana be put on the November ballot. It seems something’s smelly about DeSantis weed statement. He seems to not understand science or history. And with over 50% of the country population having access to legal marijuana, you think there might have been a bigger stink if his statement was correct.
Now those over 40 can remember when it was legal to smoke inside, meaning in restaurants, groceries stores and other public spaces. You did get a whiff of stale tobacco. But smoking outside is now required by law. And while Florida is not in top 10 states which smoke, an estimated 2.2+ million of its citizens (not counting tourists) still light up. Yet, he has not made a comment of being near a beach or roaming the street of the state capital and smelling a Marlboro.
Near Tallahassee, where the Governor sits, he is near the Florida Panhandle. For generations, its economy was driven by paper mills. Living in this panhandle puts you near some of hte most beautiful beaches, but will also, in some areas, assult your sense of smell. RockTenn, one of the areas larger paper mills, produces some particularly odorous fragrances when they “cook” paper. A strong sulfuric smell occasionally wafts across the region, and though harmless, it’s certainly unmistakeable. An economic lifeline paper mills are a part of the fabric of North Florida. When the Foley Cellulose Mill in Perry closes, economist at the university of Florida predict havoc. It will cost Florida nearly 2,000 jobs and $9.9 million in state and local taxes. This is much less than the almost zero smell of gummies and vapes which will be part of the $1+ billion plus industry in the Sunshine State alone.
There are now 24 states (plus the District of Columbia) with legalized recreational marijuana as of February 2024. Some including California, New York and DC have high visitor counts, and yet no one complains of a long or even mid term cannabis odor over the city. Yes, like cigarettes, when you walk by someone smoking you can smell it, but as you pass, it goes away.
The Governor seems dismayed the Florida State Supreme Court advanced a proposed adult-use cannabis legalization initiative, by a 5-2 ruling, to the November 5, 2024, ballot. Florida voters again will be able to express their opinion.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has been clear about his views on marijuana. He has called recreational cannabis a problem, lamented marijuana’s “stench” and grimly warned drugs are killing this country. After voters approved medical marijuana, he said it wasn’t enough and made them vote again where it passed by 71%. Despite his campaign receiving major funds from a few large players in the industry, his public state has been consistent. As Florida put together a ballot initiative to legalize recreational, DeSantis signaled his displeasure. Ashley Moody, the attorney general of Florida and ally of Gov. Ron DeSantis, asked the state Supreme Court to nix a proposed constitutional amendment which would legalize recreational cannabis.
Today, in a 5-2 ruling, the Florida State Supreme Court advanced a proposed adult-use cannabis legalization initiative to the November 5, 2024, ballot. This delivers multi blows to the governor as it dismisses his and the state attorney general argument. Marijuana, along with another ballot initiative are on the ballot and it is sure to drive voters who may not vote in line with DeSantis’s goals. And it shows despite his posturing, his administration, including the courts, are not in lockstep.
“This is one of the most important cannabis legalization campaigns in recent years,” said Matthew Schweich, executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project. “We have the opportunity to end the injustice of cannabis prohibition for over 22 million Americans.”
The ballot initiative, which is being spearheaded by Smart and Safe Florida, would legalize cannabis for adults 21 and over and allow legal sales through licensed businesses. In order to pass, the initiative must be approved by 60% of voters. Of the 24 states with an initiative process, Florida is the only state that requires 60% to pass an initiative.
If the ballot hits the 60% approval mark, the initiative would take effect six months after Election Day. The initiative would allow adults 21 and older to possess up to one ounce of cannabis flower and five grams of concentrate. Medical cannabis dispensaries would be permitted to sell cannabis to adults over the age of 21. The legislature would retain the ability to issue more licenses in the future.
Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed five of the seven justices. One justice said were “baffled” by the state’s argument about the language being misleading, and other justices were similarly skeptical of the state’s push against the amendment. This signals another blow the court ruling against the governor’s stated position.
“We’ve become a party of losers,” the conservative businessman Vivek Ramaswamy declared during the opening minutes of tonight’s Republican primary debate in Florida. He bemoaned the GOP’s lackluster performance in Tuesday’s elections, and then he identified the Republican he held personally responsible for the party’s defeats. Was this the moment, a viewer might have wondered, that a top GOP presidential contender would finally take on Donald Trump, the absent frontrunner who hasn’t deigned to join his rivals on the debate stage?
Of course not.
Ramaswamy proceeded to blame not the GOP’s undisputed leader for the past seven years but Ronna McDaniel, the party functionary unknown to most Americans who chairs the Republican National Committee. After calling on McDaniel to resign, Ramaswamy then attacked one of the debate moderators, Kristen Welker of NBC News, before turning his ire on two of his onstage competitors, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.
The moment was a fitting encapsulation of a debate that, like the first two Republican primary match-ups, all but ignored the candidate who wasn’t there. Five Republicans stood on the Miami stage tonight—Ramaswamy, Haley, DeSantis, Chris Christie, and Tim Scott—and none of them are likely to be elected president next year. The candidate of either party most likely to win the election is Trump, who held a rally a half hour away. His putative challengers barely uttered his name.
NBC’s moderators tried to force the issue at the start. Lester Holt asked each of the candidates to explain why they should be president and Trump should not. Haley and DeSantis, who are now Trump’s closest competitors (a modest distinction), offered some mild criticism. The Florida governor chastised Trump for increasing the national debt and failing to get Mexico to pay for his Southern border wall. “I thought he was the right president at the right time. I don’t think he’s the right president now,” was the most that Haley, who was Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, could muster. Only Christie, the former New Jersey governor who has become Trump’s fiercest GOP critic on the campaign trail, assailed the former president with any relish. “Anybody who’s going to be spending the next year-and-a-half of their life focusing on keeping themselves out of jail cannot lead this party or this country,” Christie said.
And with that, Trump became an afterthought for the remainder of the debate. The evening featured plenty of substance, as the candidates offered mostly robust defenses of Israel in its war with Hamas, denounced rising anti-Semitism on college campuses, and disputed how much support the U.S. should give Ukraine. At the behest of moderator Hugh Hewitt, they spent several minutes discussing the optimal size of America’s naval fleet.
The spiciest exchanges involved Ramaswamy and Haley, who made no effort to hide their disdain for one another. Ramaswamy drew boos from the audience after he criticized Haley’s hawkish foreign policy by calling her “Dick Cheney in three-inch heels.” Later he invoked her daughter’s use of TikTok to accuse her of hypocrisy on China’s ownership of the social-media platform. “Keep my daughter’s name out of your voice,” Haley shot back. “You’re just scum.” Ramaswamy and Haley also went after DeSantis, though in less personal terms.
That Ramaswamy would target Haley was not a surprise. She came into the debate as the challenger of the moment, having displaced Ramaswamy, whose candidacy has lost momentum since his breakout performance in the first GOP primary debate in August. He can partly blame Haley for his slide: Her mocking retort—“Every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber”—was the highlight of the last everyone-but-Trump pile-up in September. The former South Carolina governor’s consistency across both debates has helped her overtake DeSantis for second place in New Hampshire and gain on him in Iowa. Haley also fared the best in a hypothetical general-election match-up with Biden in a batch of swing-state polls released this week by The New York Times and Siena College.
As my colleague Elaine Godfrey reported this week, Haley is appealing to primary voters who are “yearning for a standard-issue Republican”—a tax-cutting, socially conservative foreign-policy hawk who won’t have to spend the next several months fighting felony charges in courtrooms up and down the Eastern Seaboard. Her performance tonight—as steady as during the first two debates—seems unlikely to hurt her standing. The problem for Haley, as for the other contenders on tonight’s stage, is that less than half of the GOP electorate wants a standard-issue Republican. Trump still has a tight grip on a majority of GOP voters, and his lead over Biden in recent polling undermines his rivals’ argument that his nomination could cost the party next year’s election.
If nothing else, each of these Trump-less debates offers his opponents a free shot to make the case against him, a platform to criticize the frontrunner without facing an immediate rebuttal. For the third time in a row, Haley and her competitors mostly passed up their chance. If they’re angling to be Trump’s running mate or emergency replacement, perhaps they’ve advanced their cause. But if their goal is to dislodge Trump as the nominee, opportunities like tonight’s are slipping away.
People near me at the Iowa State Fair were frantic. “Do you see him yet?” they panted. “Do you think he’ll come out into the crowd to talk?” When the presence of Secret Service officers made it clear that former President Donald Trump would appear at the Steer ’N Stein restaurant on the Grand Concourse, fairgoers formed a line whose end was out of sight.
Not all of them could squeeze into the restaurant, so they filled the street outside, one giant blob of eager, sweating Iowans. When the former president finally appeared, the scrum was so dense that they could barely make out his silhouette through the restaurant’s open side. “You know, the other candidates came here, and they had like six people,” Trump’s giddy voice said through the speakers above us. The audience responded with hoots and cheers.
One of the few rules of American politics to have withstood the weirdness of these past tumultuous years is that anyone who wants to be president of the United States must endure both the many splendors and the equally many ritual humiliations of the Iowa State Fair. It is an essential audition, at least for the GOP. (The Democratic Party has recently shuffled the order of its primary season, demoting the Iowa caucus from its first-in-the-nation status.)
If a Republican candidate, drenched in sweat and stuffed with fried butter, can pique the interest of Iowa’s choosy voters, then that candidate has a real shot in the caucuses and, perhaps, the White House. Sometimes, a long-shot outsider can work the crowds and gain an unexpected edge, as Rick Santorum did in 2012, and Ted Cruz did in 2016.
So the fair is a place to charm and be charmed. Early on in the weekend, it seemed to be working its magic.
“He’s really very engaging,” Shirley Burgess, from Des Moines, said of Mike Pence. “I thought he delivers a much clearer message in person than what I’m getting from him on TV.” The former vice president had just wrapped one of several “Fair-Side Chats” hosted by Republican Governor Kim Reynolds. This was a new feature at the fair, at which the governor asks the candidates such hard-hitting questions as “What’s your favorite walkout song?”
The night before, Pence had been heckled by a man who asked how he was doing “after Tucker Carlson ruined your career.” Another said, “I’m glad they didn’t hang you!”
But on Friday morning, Pence drew a respectful crowd for his conversation with Reynolds at J.R.’s Southpork Ranch. Attendees asked him polite questions, and half a dozen people personally thanked him for his “integrity” when Trump was trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
Pence had company, however. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and the entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy also attracted crowds at the Pork Ranch and at the Des Moines Register’s Soapbox venue. Most of the undecided Iowans who attended told me that they’d supported Trump in 2016 and in 2020. These voters appreciated his service, they said, but after eight years of idiotic rants on social media, baseless but relentless assertions of election fraud, and a string of criminal indictments, they were hankering for some new energy. You know, a leader without so much baggage, they told me; someone more … classy.
“Everything out of his mouth is like, ‘Shut up, Donald,’” Charles Dunlap, a two-time Trump voter from Johnston, Iowa, told me. He was eager to hear from Ramaswamy and Haley, people he believed would “institute similar policies” to Trump’s—just without the drama.
But the intimate enchantment of the fair—the promise of thoughtful, measured consideration—dissipated around 1 p.m. Saturday, when the former president arrived. What very quickly became clear was that the Trump-exhausted, change-minded Iowans I’d met that morning were in the minority. Most folks? They still love Trump.
The former president skipped possible speaking slots at the Soapbox and with Reynolds (because of his strange beef with the governor), but showed up to mingle with his people. They packed into every fair establishment where the president might conceivably speak. Because his event wasn’t on any official schedule, everyone was kept guessing. Parts of the fairground came to a standstill. People who just wanted to slurp lemonade and admire the prize-winning steers were annoyed. “Why did we have to come on the day that all the politicians are here?” a man pushing a stroller through the throng asked his wife. (Almost every Iowan, for the record, has at one point uttered the phrase.)
Given his commanding lead in the GOP primary polling, it’s not so shocking that Trump’s presence would create such fervor. But seeing it, feeling it, was different. By contrast, the crowds that had gathered for the other Republican candidates didn’t seem impressive at all. Suddenly, the entire GOP primary contest felt painfully futile, pathetic even. Why are they even doing this? For the also-rans—basically, the rest of the field already—was suffering the abuses of the campaign trail worth even the best-case scenario of being anointed Trump’s running mate?
On Saturday, while Pence stood in the sun flipping pork burgers, people in the crowd whispered about him. “Look at him sweat,” someone behind me said. “He’s a dweeb, and so is DeSantis,” a young man from Cedar Rapids named Jacob, who declined to give his last name, told me. “You just want to take their lunch money. It’s instinct.” Ramaswamy, whose big personality has charmed many Republicans, apparently felt the need to put on a non-dweeb showing after his interview with the governor, and rapped confidently to the Eminem song “Lose Yourself.” A sea of silver-haired onlookers, who found themselves trapped near the front of the stage, were obliged to awkwardly bob along.
DeSantis, more than anyone else, suffered at the fair. While he spoke with Reynolds, a plane flew in circles overhead, carrying a long sign that read Be likable, Ron! DeSantis pretended not to notice it. When the Florida governor took his turn in the Pork Tent, Trump supporters gathered behind his photo op, wearing green-and-yellow trucker hats handed out by the Trump campaign. They chanted and yelled insults as DeSantis and his wife flipped burgers.
And when Trump finally arrived on Saturday afternoon, he brought with him a posse of Florida lawmakers who had endorsed him over DeSantis. (Representative Matt Gaetz warmed up the crowd by saying that he’d grilled burgers well done at the Pork Tent, but “the most done you can be is Ron DeSantis.”) Will the humiliation pay off in the end? DeSantis’s campaign has to hope so. At least in Iowa, the Florida governor is running somewhat closer to Trump than he is nationally.
Earlier in the day, I’d interviewed Matt Wells, a DeSantis supporter and a county chair from Washington, Iowa, who had been following the candidate around the fair all morning. Trump’s people “don’t really know what they’re doing; it’s all an emotional thing,” he told me. Wells worked for Ted Cruz’s campaign in 2016. They’d had a strong ground game then, as DeSantis does now, he said. “Trump,” Wells added, “doesn’t have any ground game here.”
Cruz may have won Iowa, but he quite memorably did not go on to win the 2016 election. I was about to bring up this fact when someone near us gasped. A dozen fingers pointed toward the sky, and people began to scream with excitement. There, in the bright-blue ocean above us, was a plane with TRUMP emblazoned on its side heading for the nearby airport. Someone whispered, “Did I tell you that I shook his hand twice?” The clamor grew louder.
Trump would be here soon. The man, the myth, had landed.
Ron DeSantis’ first speech as a presidential contender was a dark and broody recitation of the forces he blames for ruining the country. Standing in front of a two-story American flag on a stage in Iowa, he rattled them off: “cultural Marxism,” “woke ideology,” Hunter Biden and, finally, corporate America.
“There was a little business that you may have heard of in Florida,” he said, “named Disney. People told me, ‘Listen, the media’s coming after you, the left — but if Disney weighs in, they’re the 800-pound gorilla. You better watch out, they’re going to steamroll you.’ Well, here I stand. I’m not backing down one inch,” he said to whoops and scattered applause.
“We run the state of Florida. They do not run the state of Florida.”
It’s strange days in the ongoing realignment of the modern GOP. A majority of Republican voters have gone from admiring large companies and financial institutions to reviling them. Presidential candidates are crusading against giant corporations like Bud Light for the crime of acknowledging LGBTQ+ people, and DeSantis has declared open war on his state’s most valuable employer for daring to come to their defense. The Republican Party has a rich tradition of drafting off of hatred for minorities, but never before has it placed them on such a direct collision course with their other primary source of power, the American boardroom.
DeSantis has bet he can ride these shifting currents by styling himself as America’s most vicious culture warrior. His nebulous path to victory depends on peeling support away from the original fake populist, Donald Trump, despite having none of the former president’s charisma. And his fight with Disney offers a way for him to manufacture the illusion that he poses a serious threat to corporate America. For good measure, he has also picked an abstract fight over “woke banking.”
But an illusion is all it is. In interviews with Florida politicians, activists and members of the business community — many of whom won’t whisper a word against him on the record — they describe how DeSantis has catered to special interests as ferociously as he has fought the culture wars. DeSantis wields near-dictatorial sway over his state, which he has used to grant special interests a breathtaking list of favors. He has helped them evade accountability, steamrolled regulations, funded their pet projects, and foisted bailouts and tax breaks onto ordinary taxpayers. Often he does so quite openly. One day after launching his 2024 presidential campaign in a live event on Twitter with its owner, Elon Musk, he signed a law relieving private space companies like SpaceX, another Musk company, from liability for accidentally killing its employees.
In exchange for how he has run the state, DeSantis raised more money for his 2022 reelection than any governor in U.S. history. The funds now power his nascent presidential campaign: Just a few weeks ago, he transferred $82.5 million from his gubernatorial campaign into his presidential super PAC. As a declared presidential contender, he continues to be a fundraising juggernaut, despite donors complaining he has all the personality of wet cardboard.
This doesn’t mean businesses are getting everything they want — it means they’re getting everything DeSantis wants them to have. Despite building his campaign around falsehoods about LGBTQ+ people and fearmongering of woke boogeymen, DeSantis has identified one true thing, which is how few countervailing forces there are against corporations and their political whims. Even in states where Republicans have gerrymandered popular opinion into irrelevance, big consumer-facing companies remain invested in public sentiment. North Carolina’s anti-trans bathroom bill cost the state the NBA All-Star Game. Racist voting restrictions in Georgia did the same for the MLB All-Star Game and draft. DeSantis understands the threat this poses to his ascendance but remains reliant on corporate financial support, which is why his most meaningful attacks on corporate power have all involved reducing it relative to his own.
The word is out. “If you want to get in good with this governor and his team, you have to pay up,” said a Republican consultant in Florida who requested anonymity. The consultant added, “You need to be very careful getting crosswise with the governor.” He will not hesitate to remind you who really runs the state.
A Lock On The Legislature
The Florida 2023 legislative session doubled as the opening act of DeSantis’ presidential campaign. The House and Senate were under the control of a Republican supermajority, which in turn was under the thumb of DeSantis. “I’ve never seen a governor in my lifetime with this much absolute control of the agenda in Tallahassee as Ron DeSantis,” one of his allies, super-lobbyist Brian Ballard, told the Tampa Bay Times.
Virtually every bill that passed somehow furthered his presidential ambitions, allowing him to enter the race without resigning as governor and to conceal his travel records from the public.He signed a ban on gender-affirming care for minors (it has since been blocked in federal court), a six-week abortion ban, a law (likely unconstitutional) allowing non-unanimous juries to impose the death penalty, a vast expansion of private school vouchers and a bill to rename a road after the deceased blowhard Rush Limbaugh.
This is his “blueprint for America’s revival,” a spokesperson for his presidential campaign has said. DeSantis’ pitch is that he will “Make America Florida,” a place where he stomped the “woke elites” by taking on corporate power. “In this environment, old-guard corporate Republicanism is not up to the task at hand,” he wrote in his second biography, “The Courage to Be Free.”
At least that is DeSantis’ carefully crafted mythology. Insofar as you know DeSantis as the book- and drag-show-banning governor, it’s catching on. Other pieces of his legislative agenda — particularly the many bills he signs without cameras present — tell another story altogether.
“If you want to get in good with this governor and his team, you have to pay up.”
This June, having accepted more than $2 million in donations from Florida car dealerships, he signed a law cementing their profits by banning direct-to-consumer sales of cars. The law contains a notable carve-out for Tesla, which relies heavily on direct sales and is another Musk property.
Another law he signed this month will exempt Minor League Baseball players from Florida’s minimum wage law. When the bill was filed, minor leaguers were at the bargaining table, trying to raise minimum starting salaries above $20,000. “I’ve been covering Florida politics for more than 20 years now, and I have never seen a more mean-spirited piece of legislation than this,” said Jason Garcia, an independent journalist and Florida’s foremost chronicler of pay-to-play politics. “It’s the sort of bill Montgomery Burns would sponsor.” The day after the bill was filed, Joe Ricketts, whose family owns the Chicago Cubs, gave $1 million to DeSantis’ 2022 reelection fund.
Some donors have enjoyed a striking return on investment. In May, he signed a bill discounting insurance for homeowners who install spray-foam insulation that was written by a chemical company struggling to sell spray-foam insulation. The company, Huntsman Corp., its CEO, Peter Huntsman, and his mother, Karen Huntsman, gave DeSantis’ campaign a combined $27,000 last year, and the company hired his ex-chief of staff and ex-economic development director to lobby for the bill.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis delivers remarks at the 2022 CPAC conference at the Rosen Shingle Creek in Orlando, Thursday, February 24, 2022. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel)
Orlando Sentinel via Getty Images
Even DeSantis’ messaging bills tend to serve his biggest backers. A key bill DeSantis rammed through the legislature this year prohibits Florida’s public pensions and state-held funds from taking ESG (environmental, social and governance) factors into consideration before investing. ESG investing is a recurring villain in DeSantis’ “war on woke”; at press conferences, he sometimes appears under banners bearing inscrutable catchphrases like “Government of Laws. Not woke CEOs.” But the law serves a second purpose. It also contains a provision that would specifically punish banks that have refused to do business with the GEO Group, a Florida-based private prison contractor and one of DeSantis’ earliest and most steadfast donors.
It didn’t start out this way, with DeSantis openly picking his state’s winners and losers. His path to the Governor’s Mansion ran through a grinding 2018 primary campaign in which nearly every Florida politician and industry association of note supported his main opponent, Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. After defeating Putnam, DeSantis won the general election by the thinnest of margins, beating Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum by less than half a percentage point.
He used his first year in office to broaden his appeal, seeking funds to raise teacher pay and restore the Florida Everglades, and appointing Democrats to his administration. He deliberately stopped appearing on Fox News, where he had been a bellicose fixture throughout the campaign.
The kinds of political favors he granted were business-as-usual for a state that had always been friendly to its business lobby. The first significant tax legislation he signed — a $2.8 billion reduction in the state’s corporate income taxes — simply continued the cuts negotiated under his Republican predecessor, Gov. Rick Scott. DeSantis even abandoned key parts of his agenda when they conflicted with corporate interests, like when he scrapped a campaign promise to force all Florida employers to adopt E-Verify and check employees’ immigration status.
Privately, though, DeSantis had a plan.
Two weeks after he was sworn in as governor, his campaign already had a strategy for raising donations from high rollers around the country. A private memo, drafted by the fundraising consultant for his Friends of Ron DeSantis organization and uncovered by the Tampa Bay Times, proposed that his first year in office be loaded with “intimate and high dollar gatherings” at donors’ homes and nine-hole, one-on-one rounds of golf for which contributors would be expected to pay $100,000. “This timeframe is relatively aggressive because it is the governor’s desire to fundraise and maintain a high political profile at all times ― inside and outside of Florida,” Susie Wiles, his then-campaign manager, wrote in an email presenting the plan to the governor’s staff.
Fundraising has always been DeSantis’ forte. “You’re talking about a politician whose almost singular skill and dedication is the money chase,” said David Jolly, a former Republican representative from Florida who ascended to Congress around the same time as DeSantis. “It was incredible to see his success because he was a safe freshman in a Republican district, and here he was nationally fundraising with some of the biggest Republican donors — the Ricketts, the Adelsons, you can go down the list — because he was a man in a hurry.”
As governor, he honed this into a science. His in-state travel, the memo urged, should sync up with when ultra-wealthy snowbirds flocked to their homes on Hobe Sound and John’s Island. If he traveled to a fundraiser out of state — he had invitations from Republican mega-donors in Texas, Nevada and New York — DeSantis ought to demand a minimum commitment of $250,000.
Wiles denied to the Times that DeSantis executed the plan, but the facts suggest otherwise. Campaign finance records from his first year in office show he routinely raised six figures in a single day, from just a few wealthy donors at a time. About half of his campaign contributions came from onetime supporters of Putnam. Just a few weeks into his term, Duke Energy was pledging $100,000 for three of its lobbyists to play golf with DeSantis on Biscayne Bay. (“All political contributions made by Duke Energy come from shareholders, not customers,” Shawna Berger, a Duke spokesperson, said in response. Other donors mentioned in this story did not return requests for comment.)
For the eye-popping sums he commanded, DeSantis often spent just a single hour with his benefactors. Supporters have complained over the years that he is impersonal, irritable and downright rude. “He’s a block of wood,” said a longtime Florida insider, when I asked how DeSantis acts in a room full of donors.
Charm was simply not necessary. Along with his fundraising objectives, DeSantis entered office with a tactical plan to accumulate more executive power than any governor preceding him. “One of my first orders of business after getting elected was to have my transition team amass an exhaustive list of all the constitutional, statutory, and customary powers of the governor,” he wrote in “The Courage to Be Free.” “I wanted to be sure that I was using every lever available to advance our priorities.”
“It is the governor’s desire to fundraise and maintain a high political profile at all times ― inside and outside of Florida.”
The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in early 2020 gave DeSantis an unexpected opportunity to speed-run his plans. Even among Republicans, he distinguished himself for his willingness to politicize a sweeping health emergency. He ended virtually all public safety precautions after just three weeks of lockdowns — declaring, “We will never do any of these lockdowns again” — and resumed his Fox News appearances in order to rail against school closures and, later, mandatory vaccinations. When local leaders tried to impose mask mandates, he signed an executive order invalidating them.
Many governors during that time brought their legislatures into special session, giving elected representatives the ability to help shape extraordinary COVID-era policymaking. Not DeSantis. Instead, he seized total power to set the state’s masking policies and dole out federal COVID funding himself. “The legislature let the governor run roughshod during the state of emergency,” said Anders Croy, communications director for Florida Watch, a progressive organization. The balance of power has never recovered. “Since then, the governor has essentially ruled by administrative fiat.”
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis vows to keep restaurants open during COVID-19 at a news conference on Dec. 15, 2020, at Okeechobee Steakhouse in West Palm Beach, Florida. DeSantis and California Gov. Gavin Newsom are sparring over the transporting of migrants to California authorized by DeSantis. (Michael Laughlin/South Florida Sun Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
South Florida Sun-Sentinel via Getty Images
The pandemic forged the belligerent, autocratic DeSantis who runs Florida today. Before, there was always a give and take. The state House and Senate had their priorities, and the governor had his priorities and there was friendly horse-trading. (Republicans have held a trifecta in Florida for 24 out of the last 25 years.) “It is completely different right now,” Croy said. “The fact that everything comes from the plaza level” — meaning, the governor’s office on the Plaza Floor of the state Capitol — “and they’re dictating 90% of the agenda is an absolute flip of how it used to be.”
Now Republicans wanting to vote no on DeSantis-backed legislation had to obtain permission. He had become a household name and a right-wing folk hero, and any lawmaker who put a toe out of line would pay. Using the 2022 elections as a live threat — the governor was hand-selecting midterm candidates to run for the legislature and even local school boards — DeSantis rammed through a bevy of laws that raised his national profile while targeting and immiserating minorities, such as the “Don’t Say Gay” ban on classroom discussions of gender identity and sexual orientation and a ban on the teaching of critical race theory.
“There is no acceptance of the idea of opposition,” said a longtime political organizer who requested anonymity for all the reasons just laid out.“I’ve been around this for a very long time, and this feels different. He shook the shit out of all of them. What is very clear is, from the very top, there is an agenda, and if you fucked with that agenda, it’s ‘I’m going to fuck with you.’”
When Disney Didn’t Get In Line
“Florida is becoming a testing grounds to see how far people will go,” said Sheena Rolle, the senior director of strategy for Florida Rising. “Did he invent crony capitalism? No, but he is a test of ‘Can he get away with being so blatant?’”
The pandemic unleashed this side of DeSantis, too. Early in his first term, DeSantis stacked state boards, commissions and task forces with more campaign donors than did his predecessors. But it was in the years after the pandemic when the list of favors DeSantis doled out became truly staggering.
In 2021, he signed a $2.6 billion corporate tax cut that shifted the burden of refilling the state’s unemployment fund, which had been devastated by COVID, off of Florida’s largest employers and onto ordinary shoppers via an internet sales tax. For the year 2021, the top 100 employers would have owed $193 million more in unemployment taxes if the law hadn’t been in place.
His administration approved a $16.5 million state grant to upgrade a vehicle import facility a few weeks before the owner, JM Family, gave his political committee $200,000. A lottery vendor that gave DeSantis $125,000 was awarded a multimillion-dollar state gaming contract by a DeSantis appointee. The owner of a Key West cruise ship pier donated just shy of $1 million to Friends of Ron DeSantis before the governor signed a law overturning Key West’s ban on cruise ship docking.
“There is no acceptance of the idea of opposition.”
Rob Walton, whose family owns Walmart and is one of the wealthiest families on the planet, donated $25,000 to DeSantis in April, just days before he signed the first of two new laws that were privately championed by a law firm handling the Waltons’ fortune. The laws increased secrecy around family trusts incorporated and permitted trusts, which the ultra-wealthy use to pass on tax-free inheritances, to exist for 1,000 years. Another law he signed raised the commission that grocery stores and gas stations pocket anytime they sell a lottery ticket. Two of the biggest beneficiaries were Publix, the grocery store giant that has donated $150,000 to DeSantis since he became governor, and Sunshine gas station, whose parent company owns a pair of jets it lends free to DeSantis.
Into this ongoing power trip walked Disney.
It was summer 2022, and the Florida Legislature was on the verge of passing the “Don’t Say Gay” bill, an open assault on LGBTQ+ teachers and students. “Acceptance and understanding in the classroom promote compassion and kindness,” said one Tampa Bay high school teacher. The law would create “a world where their identities are summarily erased.” Among the fearful and outraged were Disney’s 75,000-plus Florida employees and their families. Disney’s then-CEO, Bob Chapek, opted to stay silent until after the bill had passed and all that was missing was DeSantis’ signature. Then he broke his silence and said Disney opposed the bill and was pausing all of Disney’s Florida political donations.
“People forget: They closed the faucet,” said state Rep. Anna Eskamani (D).Disney had made $1 million in contributions to Florida Republicans in 2020. DeSantis was up for reelection in November and entering the most high-stakes fundraising period to date of his political career, the one that would tee him up to challenge Trump. By this time, he had raised $100 million to face an uncontested primary and a field of weak Democrats — “a gaudy figure,” the Sarasota Herald-Tribune called it, traceable to how boldly DeSantis was rewarding his contributors.
Disney itself had enjoyed countless special favors. Just a year before the “Don’t Say Gay” law, the DeSantis administration had worked to exempt the Disney+ streaming platform from a tech regulation bill. Now here was Disney thinking it could threaten him.
In his memoir, he recalled giving Chapek a counter-warning: “You will end up putting yourself in an untenable position.”
Weeks later, DeSantis announced lawmakers would consider a proposal, previously relegated to the libertarian edge of his party, to dissolve the special tax district that allows Disney to self-govern its Florida theme parks. Known then as the Reedy Creek Improvement District, the arrangement allows Disney to avoid many state regulations, raise money using tax-exempt bonds and generally save millions of dollars a year. There are hundredsof special tax districts across Florida, each costing the state revenue, but DeSantis was only interested in attacking this one.
Not even Disney seemed to realize how hellbent he was on getting retribution. When the bill came up for debate, allies with the Associated Industries of Florida and the Florida Chamber of Commerce sat in the back rows, silent. “The thinking at the time was, he’ll do this, he’ll get some headlines, it’ll go away,” said someone familiar with their thinking. His relentlessness also stunned many Florida Republicans, who have worked hand-in-glove with Disney for decades. “I can’t tell you how many Republican legislators there are in the House and Senate who openly behind-the-scenes” — openly behind-the-scenes! — “mock the governor for this fight with Disney,” said a Republican consultant in Florida who requested anonymity.
LAKE BUENA VISTA, FL – JUNE 3: A “Don’t Say DeSantis” t-shirt at Disney World’s Magic Kingdom on Saturday, June 3, 2023 in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. “Gay Days” at Disney began three decades ago and is one of the nation’s largest Pride Month events. (Photo by Thomas Simonetti for The Washington Post via Getty Images)
The Washington Post via Getty Images
Jolly, the former Republican congressman, said they were missing the point. Grievance politicians have no predictable allies, only temporary friends and enemies. “Trump has ushered in a post-ideological party, and DeSantis is a perfect example of that.”
At the signing of the 2022 state budget, DeSantis line-item vetoed millions in funding for his fellow Florida Republicans’ personal passion projects. He said he was targeting “pork” spending. Around the same time, he approved a sales tax exemption for tickets to Formula One Grand Prix races. The tax break was sought by Steve Ross, the billionaire owner of Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium, who had donated $100,000 to DeSantis one month earlier.
The way that DeSantis has tried to resolve his fight with Disney is telling. (The company and DeSantis are now locked in a legal battle.) A series of laws he signed this year requires the company to answer to a handpicked board of cultural warriors but leaves its tax-exempt status and ability to raise revenue through tax-exempt bonds, which has saved the company millions of dollars, intact. They made Disney weaker mainly insofar as it has to answer to him.
By the time his first term ended, DeSantis had a gigantic seed fund for his presidential ambitions. The Herald-Tribune’s political editor counted 42 billionaires among DeSantis’ donors. (You can add one more to the list: Records show that Todd Wagner, who co-owns 2929 Entertainment with Mark Cuban, is linked to a limited liability company that donated $300,000 to DeSantis a week after his reelection.)
His top donor, the Republican Governors Association, took in millions from companies with business before the state of Florida — such as Florida Power & Light, which benefited from DeSantis administration-approved consumer rate hikes. He cruised to reelection in November having raised $217 million, more money than any governor in U.S. history.
“They’re all saying the quiet part out loud; there’s no effort to hide it. It’s just all out in the open.”
And he never stopped passing the hat. Members of his administration were texting lobbyists for contributions to his presidential campaign, NBC reported, during the weeks when DeSantis could line-item veto their clients’ political priorities. In addition to the $82.5 million he transferred into his presidential super PAC, his super PAC had separately raised $30 million as of April. (The group will not have to disclose its donors until July 1.)
“Under his administration, crony capitalism has just been given full license,” said Rich Templin, the director of politics and public policy for the Florida AFL-CIO. “They’re all saying the quiet part out loud; there’s no effort to hide it. It’s just all out in the open.”
Whether or not average Floridians are tracking these feudal machinations, they are probably feeling the effects. Last year, Realtor.com ranked Florida as the least affordable state in the country. Rents in all four of Florida’s major metro areas — Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville — grew faster than the national average, with rent in some markets shooting up 31% and even 57% year over year. This year, Florida is one of the only places in the country where home prices are still rising. Meanwhile, home insurance prices surged 50% during DeSantis’ first term in office.
DeSantis’ answer to these crises is essentially to offer what the relevant industries want. After Hurricane Ian sent Florida’s insurance markets into a tailspin, he called a special session where lawmakers passed a $1 billion taxpayer-funded bailout of struggling insurers that didn’t put any brakes on insurance prices. “The industry got a wish list of reforms,” said Democratic state Rep. Hillary Cassel. “What have we done for consumers? Nothing. What have we done for insurance companies? Everything.” Florida insurance prices are projected to rise an additional 40% this year.
His moves to address the affordable housing crisis have won broader support but are also limited to market solutions. In the spring, he committed $711 million in incentives to homebuilders to construct badly needed worker housing. The same package prohibited local governments from regulating landlord-tenant agreements in any way. The law preempted rent control and other tenant-friendly measures passed in Democratic strongholds like Miami-Dade County, Pinellas County and St. Petersburg. In Orange County, where the average household spends 37% of its income on rent, the law preempted a ballot measure passed in November that would have temporarily capped rent increases at 9.8%.
“People are sleeping on their children’s couches, literal grown-ass women,” said Roxey Nelson, the executive vice president of 199SEIU United Healthcare Workers East, the country’s largest healthcare workers union, who is also an Orlando area resident. David Maldonado, the pastor of Hablamos Español Florida, said members of his congregation have slept in their cars or rental storage units. “I know one woman, with two children, who spent a few nights in a U-Haul truck she rented to sleep in because she had no other option.”
Clouds Over DeSantis’ Sunshine State
DeSantis has a message for his haters: People love it here. He won reelection in a 19-percentage-point landslide and with a strong approval rating while thousands of others voted with their feet. “Florida is the fastest-growing state in the nation,” he said in March at his annual state of the state address. “We did it our way, the Florida way. And the result is that we are the number one destination for our fellow Americans who are looking for a better life.”
DeSantis didn’t invent moving to Florida. Its population has grown faster than the rest of the country in every decade since the 1950s — never faster than in the 1950s, at the dawn of the air conditioner. Still, he’s right. Florida grew about three times faster than the rest of the country from 2021 to 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, with most of its growth coming from the more than 444,000 new residents who were seduced by Florida’s permanent summer, lack of COVID restrictions or 0% income tax.
*Rent control advocates for Orange County demonstrate in front of the Florida Realtors office building Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
Few people have relocated with as much fanfare as Ken Griffin, the CEO of the titanic hedge fund Citadel. In June 2022, Griffin announced that he was moving his family and the headquarters of his $59-billion-assets-under-management company from his longtime home of Chicago to Miami. Griffin had spent the months leading up to the announcement blasting Illinois leadership over Chicago’s crime rates. (In 2021, when he began complaining, overall crime in Chicago had actually fallen for three years running.) “If people aren’t safe here, they’re not going to live here,” he said. He called his new home “a vibrant, growing metropolis that embodies the American Dream.”
His move dovetailed nicely with the story DeSantis is telling — on the surface. Griffin, whose estimated net worth is more than $36.3 billion, had also just endured a bruising political loss. In Illinois’ gubernatorial primaries, he spent $50 million on a Republican who whimpered to a third-place finish. A Chicago Sun-Times headline dubbed it the “worst political investment in Illinois history.”
“He wasn’t going to have a future of control and influence, politically speaking, in Illinois,” said a source deeply rooted in Chicago’s business community — a reality check that just so happened to coincide with his decision to move to Florida.
When ordinary people daydream about moving to Florida, they think of sunshine, beaches and low taxes, said Croy, of Florida Watch. “When billionaires and large corporations look at Florida, they know they can increase their bottom lines and decrease workers’ wages and not have to worry about regulations from the government.” The latter group has done an extraordinary job of profiting off of the former. And for now, they rely almost entirely on DeSantis’ favor in order to do so.
But as the presidential campaign takes him further away from his power source, there is the possibility that his grip on power will weaken. A majority of Florida’s Republican caucus in Congress have endorsed Trump. His fear tactics don’t work as well on people without business before the state of Florida, and several major Wall Street donors have recoiled from his campaign as early polls show him losing to Trump. Suddenly, he’s not their only option.
Even Griffin is feeling fickle. As of last year, he was DeSantis’ largest donor, having given him more than $10 million, and he backed the idea of DeSantis running for president. But two sources said his enthusiasm waned after DeSantis signed Florida’s six-week abortion ban; he also reportedly disapproves of DeSantis’ opposition to military funding for Ukraine. (A spokesperson for Citadel did not respond to a request for comment.)
“Ultimately, what do people that wealthy want? Control,” said the Chicago source. Griffin blamed his move on crime, this person believed, because what else could he do? “He’s not going to say, I want to be the puppet master, so I’m moving to the place where there are more puppets.”
Will capital stay under Ron DeSantis’ thumb? Does it matter? A longtime Florida organizer told me her job from now until November 2024 is to “save the rest of the American populace from Ron DeSantis” — but even that might not constitute a victory. Win or lose, DeSantis is taking his brand of authoritarian capitalism on a national roadshow. What would stop a wised-up second Trump administration from copying the Florida way?
“A lot of us in Florida right now are just wondering when the cavalry is coming,” said the AFL-CIO’s Templin. “All of the book banning and privatization of public education — we really feel like we no longer live in the United States.”
In his nightmare scenario, Florida begins to feel familiar again because it’s the same as it is everywhere else.
Real-life Ron DeSantis was here, finally. In the fidgety flesh; in Iowa, South Carolina, and, in this case, New Hampshire. Not some distant Sunshine State of potential or idealized Donald Trump alternative or voice in the far-off static of Twitter Spaces. But an actual human being interacting with other human beings, some 200 of them, packed into an American Legion hall in the town of Rochester.
“Okay, smile, close-up,” an older woman told the Florida governor, trying to pull him in for another photo. DeSantis and his wife, Casey, had just finished a midday campaign event, and the governor was now working a quick rope line—emphasis on quick and double emphasis on working. The fast-talking first lady is much better suited to this than her halting husband. He smiled for the camera like the dentist had just asked him to bite down on a blob of putty; like he was trying to make a mold, or to fit one. It was more of a cringe than a grin.
“Governor, I have a lot of relatives in Florida,” the next selfie guy told him. Everybody who meets DeSantis has relatives in Florida or a time-share on Clearwater Beach or a bunch of golf buddies who retired to the Villages. “Wow, really?” DeSantis said.
He was trying. But this did not look fun for him.
Retail politicking was never DeSantis’s gift. Not that it mattered much before, in the media-dominated expanse of Florida politics, where DeSantis has proved himself an elite culture warrior and troller of libs. DeSantis was reelected by 19 points last November. He calls himself the governor of the state “where woke goes to die,” which he believes will be a model for his presidency of the whole country, a red utopia in his own image.
What does the on-paper promise of DeSantis look like in practice? DeSantis has performed a number of these in-person chores in recent days, after announcing his presidential campaign on May 24 in a glitchy Twitter Spaces appearance with Elon Musk.
As I watched him complete his rounds in New Hampshire on Thursday—visits to a VFW hall, an Elks Club, and a community college, in addition to the American Legion post—the essential duality of his campaign was laid bare: DeSantis is the ultimate performative politician when it comes to demonstrating outrage and “kneecapping” various woke abuses—but not so much when it comes to the actual in-person performance of politics.
The campaign billed his appearance in Rochester as a “fireside chat.” (The outside temperature was 90 degrees, and there was no actual fire.) The governor and first lady also held fireside chats this week at a welding shop in Salix, Iowa, and at an event space in Lexington, South Carolina. The term conjures the great American tradition started by President Franklin D. Roosevelt during the Great Depression. Those were scary times—grim visages of malnourished kids and food riots and businessmen selling pencils on the street. FDR’s cozy evenings around the radio hearth were meant to project comfort and avuncular authority.
Sitting on gray armchairs onstage in Rochester—Casey cross-legged and Ron man-spread—the DeSanti reassured their audience that the Florida governor was the candidate best equipped to protect Americans from contemporary threats no less serious than stock-market crashes and bank closures. He was focused on a distinct set of modern menaces: “woke indoctrination” and “woke militaries” and “woke mind viruses” and “woke mobs” that endanger every institution of American life. He used woke more than a dozen times at each event (I counted).
Also, DeSantis said he’s a big supporter of “the death penalty for pedophiles” (applause); reminded every audience that he’d sent dozens of migrants to “beautiful Martha’s Vineyard” (bigger applause); and promised to end “this Faucian dystopia” around COVID once and for all (biggest applause).
Casey talked at each New Hampshire stop about the couple’s three young children, often in the vein of how adorably naughty they are—how they write on the walls of the governor’s mansion with permanent markers and leave crayon stains on the carpets. Ron spoke in personal terms less often, but when he did, it was usually to prove that he understands the need to protect kids from being preyed upon by the various and ruthless forces of wokeness. One recurring example on Thursday involved how outrageous it is that in certain swim competitions, a girl might wind up being defeated by a transgender opponent. “I’m particularly worried about this as the father of two daughters,” DeSantis told the Rochester crowd.
This played well in the room full of committed Republicans and likely primary voters, as it does on Fox. Clearly, this is a fraught and divisive issue, but one that’s been given outsized attention in recent years, especially in relation to the portion of the population it directly affects. By comparison, DeSantis never mentioned gun violence, the leading cause of death for children in this country, including many in his state (the site of the horrific Parkland massacre of 2018, the year before he became governor). DeSantis readily opts for the culture-war terrain, ignoring the rest, pretty much everywhere he goes.
His whole act can feel like a clunky contrivance—a forced persona railing against phony or hyped-up outrages. He can be irascible. Steve Peoples, a reporter for the Associated Press, approached DeSantis after a speech at a VFW hall in Laconia and asked the governor why he hadn’t taken any questions from the audience. “Are you blind?” DeSantis snapped at Peoples. “Are you blind? Okay, so, people are coming up to me, talking to me [about] whatever they want to talk to me about.”
No one in the room cared about this little outburst besides the reporters (who sent a clip of it bouncing across social media within minutes). And if the voters did care, it would probably reflect well on DeSantis in their eyes, demonstrating his willingness to get in the media’s face.
Journalists who managed to get near DeSantis this week unfailingly asked him about Donald Trump, the leading GOP candidate. In Rochester, NBC’s Gabe Gutierrez wondered about the former president’s claim that he would eliminate the federal government’s “administrative state” within six months of a second term. “Why didn’t you do it when you had four years?” DeSantis shot back.
In general, though, DeSantis didn’t mention Trump without being prompted—at least not explicitly. He drew clear, if barely veiled, contrasts. “I will end the culture of losing in the Republican Party,” he vowed Thursday night in Manchester. Unsaid, obviously, is that the GOP has underperformed in the past three national elections—and no one is more to blame than Trump and the various MAGA disciples he dragged into those campaigns.
“Politics is not about building a brand,” DeSantis went on to say. What matters is competence and conviction, not charisma. “My husband will never back down!” Casey added in support. In other words: He is effective and he will follow through and actually do real things, unlike you-know-who.
“Politics is not about entertainment,” DeSantis said in all of his New Hampshire speeches, usually at the end. He might be trying to prove as much.
After his historic indictment was announced Thursday night, former President Donald Trump reacted with his characteristic cool and precision: “These Thugs and Radical Left Monsters have just INDICATED the 45th President of the United States of America.” Presumably this was a typo, and he meant INDICTED. But the immediate joining of arms around the martyr was indeed a perfect indication of precisely who the Republicans are right now.
“When Trump wins, THESE PEOPLE WILL PAY!!” Representative Ronny Jackson of Texas vowed.
“If they can come for him, they can come for anyone,” added Representative Andy Biggs, Republican of Arizona—or at least come for anyone who has allegedly paid $130,000 in hush money to a former porn-star paramour (and particularly anyone who allegedly had unprotected sex with her shortly after his third wife had given birth).
As usual, the Republicans’ latest rush to umbrage on behalf of Trump, before the indictment is even unsealed, was imbued with its own meaning—namely, about what the party has allowed itself to become in service to him. Trump is no longer just Republicans’ unmoveable leader; he is their everyman. His life is not some spectacularly corrupt and immoral web—but rather his victimization has become a proxy for their own imagined mistreatment.
And soon enough, Trump has promised, he will be their “retribution.” He is their patron crybaby.
The GOP’s ongoing willingness to fuse itself to Trump’s deranged and slippery character has been its most defining feature for years. The question is why it continues, after all these embarrassments and election defeats. And why Republicans, at long last, don’t use the former president’s mounting milestones of malfeasance as a means of setting themselves free from their orange albatross.
The popular assumption among Republicans that Trump’s indictment strengthens him politically shows how cowed they all still are. Yes, Trump’s indictment is “unprecedented,” as his defenders keep reminding us. But this is not necessarily flattering to the former president. They perceive him to be invulnerable, and he behaves as such. In their continued awe, they see their only choice as continued capitulation.
There is, of course, an alternate response: the exact opposite. “My fellow Americans, I am personally against paying hush money to porn stars. Maybe I am naive or even, forgive me, a bit conservative in how I choose to live my life. But it is my personal view that our leaders, especially those seeking our highest office, should not be serial liars, should not be subject to multiple state and federal investigations, and should not call for the termination of the Constitution in order to re-install themselves as president against the democratic will of the American people.”
In some long-ago Republican universe, there would in fact be a dash to condemn the former president’s words and conduct. This is not who we are, some might say, or try to claim. Sure, there could be some old-fashioned political opportunism involved here. (It wouldn’t be the first time!) But what politician wouldn’t seize such an opening to score points?
Instead, the response from the GOP’s putative leaders was as predictable as the indictment news itself. Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor who supposedly represents the Republicans’ most promising possible break from Trump in 2024, seized the chance to pander his way back into the old tent. He vowed that Florida would “not assist in an extradition request” that might come from Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, whose office is responsible for the indictment. DeSantis called the indictment “un-American” and dismissed Bragg as a “Soros-backed Manhattan District Attorney” (bonus points for Ron, getting Soros in there).
DeSantis also cited the “political agenda” behind the indictment. Or “witch hunt,” as it was decried by distinguished elder statesmen and women such as Representatives Matt Gaetz, Lauren Boebert, and George Santos, among others. Gee, where do they learn such phrases?
Former Vice President Mike Pence announced on CNN that he was “outraged” by the “unprecedented indictment of a former president.” (Pence, of course, expressed far more “outrage” over Trump’s predicament than he ever publicly did over his former boss leaving him to potentially be hanged at the Capitol on January 6, 2021.) Meanwhile, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, one of Trump’s few official 2024 challengers, rejected Bragg’s move as “more about revenge than it is about justice.” Senator Tim Scott, another possible presidential rival, condemned Bragg as a “pro-criminal New York DA” who has “weaponized the law against political enemies.”
No one knows yet how solid Bragg’s case against Trump is. But there are simple alternatives to this ritual circling of the withering wagons every time Trump lands himself in even deeper trouble. “We need to wait on the facts and for our American system of justice to work like it does for thousands of Americans every day,” Asa Hutchinson, the Republican former governor of Arkansas, said in a statement, offering one such alternative.
Or, speaking to the matter at hand, “being indicted never helps anybody,” former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said recently on ABC’s This Week. In a normal world, this would represent the ultimate duh statement. But among today’s Republicans, Christie was making himself an outlier.
In the early stages of the 2024 Republican primary, Christie has been the rare figure to step into a “lane” that’s been left strangely wide open. Christie dropped into New Hampshire on Monday and continued to tease the notion that he might run for president again himself. He pummeled Trump while doing so—and sure, good for Christie, I guess. Better several years late than never.
He makes for an imperfect messenger, this onetime Trump toady of Trenton. My elite political instincts lead me to suspect Christie will not go on to become our 46th president. But his feisty drop into Manchester was constructive nonetheless. “When you put yourself ahead of our democracy as president of the United States, it’s over,” Christie told a receptive crowd at Saint Anselm College, referring to Trump’s refusal to accept his defeat in 2020 and subsequent efforts to sabotage the transfer of power. I found myself nodding along to Christie’s words, and willing to overlook, for now at least, his past record of bootlicking. If nothing else, Christie knows Trump well and understands his tender spots.
You don’t always get the pugilists you want. Especially when the likes of DeSantis, Pence, Haley, et al., have shown no appetite for the job. The leading contenders to beat Trump in the primary have offered, to this point, only the most flaccid critiques of the former president, who—perhaps not coincidentally—seems to be only expanding his lead in the (very) early polling.
If Trump has demonstrated one thing in his political career—dating to his initial cannonball into the pool of the 2016 campaign—it is that he thrives in the absence of resistance. In his initial foray, none of Trump’s chief Republican rivals, including Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, bothered to take him on until he was well ensconced as the front-runner. Christie was himself a towering titan of timidity in that campaign. He dropped out after finishing sixth in the New Hampshire primary and immediately led the charge to Trump’s backside.
This time around, DeSantis, viewed by many Trump-weary Republicans as the top contingency candidate, has barely said a critical word about the former president. Trump, in turn, has been pulverizing the Florida man for months, dismissing him as an “average governor.”
Meanwhile, Pence has managed only to rebuke Trump at a private dinner of Washington journalists. Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, a favorite of many Republican donors and consultants, recently told Politico that he prefers leaders who can “disagree with people without being disagreeable.” He then summarized what sets him apart from Trump. “We just have different styles,” Youngkin concluded. Ah yes, if only Trump had a more agreeable “style,” everything would be cool.
Or maybe Republicans should consider a change in “style.” The delicate deference they continue to afford Trump—through two impeachments, repeatedly poor election showings, and (at least) one indictment—seems only to have solidified his hold over them.
Campaigns are supposed to be “disagreeable” sometimes, right? Especially when the face of your party is about to become a mug shot.
Former President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he will mount a third White House campaign, launching an early start to the 2024 contest. The announcement comes just a week after an underwhelming midterm showing for Republicans and will force the party to decide whether to embrace a candidate whose refusal to accept defeat in 2020 pushed American democracy to the brink.
“I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States,” Trump said to an audience of several hundred supporters, club members and gathered press in a chandeliered ballroom at his Mar-a-Lago club, where he stood flanked by more than 30 American flags and banners that read, “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
Trump enters the race in a moment of political vulnerability. He hoped to launch his campaign in the wake of resounding GOP midterm victories, fueled by candidates he elevated during this year’s primaries. Instead, many of those candidates lost, allowing Democrats to keep the Senate and leaving the GOP with a path to only a bare majority in the House.
Far from the undisputed leader of the party, Trump is now facing criticism from some of his own allies, who say it’s time for Republicans to look to the future, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis emerging as an early favorite White House contender.
The former president is still popular with the GOP base. But other Republicans, including former Vice President Mike Pence, are taking increasingly public steps toward campaigns of their own, raising the prospect that Trump will have to navigate a competitive GOP primary.
He’s launching his candidacy amid a series of escalating criminal investigations, including several that could lead to indictments. They include the probe into dozens of documents with classified markings that were seized by the FBI from Mar-a-Lago and ongoing state and federal inquiries into his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.
Another campaign is a remarkable turn for any former president, much less one who made history as the first to be impeached twice and whose term ended with his supporters violently storming the Capitol in a deadly bid to halt the peaceful transition of power on Jan. 6, 2021.
But Trump, according to people close to him, has been eager to return to politics and try to halt the rise of other potential challengers. Aides have spent the last months readying paperwork, identifying potential staff, and sketching out the contours of a campaign that is being modeled on his 2016 operation, when a small clutch of aides zipping between rallies on his private jet defied the odds and defeated far better-funded and more experienced rivals by tapping into deep political fault lines and using shocking statements to drive relentless media attention.
Even after GOP losses, Trump remains the most powerful force in his party. For years he has consistently topped his fellow Republican contenders by wide margins in hypothetical head-to-head matchups. And even out of office, he consistently attracts thousands to his rallies and remains his party’s most prolific fundraiser, raising hundreds of millions of dollars.
But Trump is also a deeply polarizing figure. Fifty-four percent of voters in last week’s midterm elections viewed him very or somewhat unfavorably, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 94,000 voters nationwide. And an October AP-NORC poll found even Republicans have their reservations about him remaining the party’s standard-bearer, with 43% saying they don’t want to see him run for president in 2024.
Trump’s candidacy poses profound questions about America’s democratic future. The final days of his presidency were consumed by a desperate effort to stay in power, undermining the centuries-old tradition of a peaceful transfer. And in the two years since he lost, Trump’s persistent — and baseless — lies about widespread election fraud have eroded confidence in the nation’s political process. By late January 2021, about two-thirds of Republicans said they did not believe President Joe Biden was legitimately elected in 2020, an AP-NORC poll found.
VoteCast showed roughly as many Republican voters in the midterm elections continued to hold that belief.
Federal and state election officials and Trump’s own attorney general have said there is no credible evidence the 2020 election was tainted. The former president’s allegations of fraud were also roundly rejected by numerous courts, including by judges Trump appointed.
But that didn’t stop hundreds of midterm candidates from parroting his lies as they sought to win over his loyal base and score his coveted endorsement. In the end, many of those candidates went on to lose their races a sign that voters rejected such extreme rhetoric.
While some Republicans with presidential ambitions, like former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, have long ruled out running against Trump, others have said he would not figure into their decisions, even before his midterm losses.
They include Pence, who released a book Tuesday, and Trump’s former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, as well as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who ran against Trump in 2016. Other potential candidates include Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Trump is also likely to face challenges from members of the anti-Trump wing of the party like Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, vice chair of the House committee that has been investigating Jan. 6.
But the person who has most occupied Trump and his allies in recent months is DeSantis, whose commanding reelection as governor last week was a bright spot for Republicans this cycle. The former congressman, who became a popular national figure among conservatives during the pandemic as he pushed back on COVID-19 restrictions, shares Trump’s pugilistic instincts and has embraced fights over social issues with similar zeal.
Even some enthusiastic Trump supporters say they are eager for DeSantis to run, seeing him as a natural successor to Trump but without the former president’s considerable baggage.
Trump has already begun to lash out at DeSantis publicly. On Tuesday, the Florida governor shot back.
“At the end of the day, I would just tell people to go check out the scoreboard from last Tuesday night,” DeSantis told reporters.
A crowded field of GOP rivals could ultimately play to Trump’s advantage, as it did in 2016 when he prevailed over more than a dozen other candidates who splintered the anti-Trump vote.
Trump’s decision paves the way for a potential rematch with Biden, who has said he intends to run for reelection despite concerns from some in his party over his age and low approval ratings. The two men were already the oldest presidential nominees ever when they ran in 2020. Trump, who is 76, would be 82 at the end of the second term in 2029. Biden, who is about to turn 80, would be 86.
If he is ultimately successful, Trump would be just the second U.S. president in history to serve two nonconsecutive terms, following Grover Cleveland’s wins in 1884 and 1892.
But Trump enters the race facing enormous challenges beyond his party’s growing trepidations. The former president is the subject of numerous investigations, including the monthslong probe into the hundreds of documents with classified markings found in boxes at Mar-a-Lago.
Meanwhile, Trump is facing Justice Department scrutiny over efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. In Georgia, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is investigating what she alleges was “a multi-state, coordinated plan by the Trump Campaign” to influence the 2020 results.
And in New York, Attorney General Letitia James has sued Trump, alleging his namesake company engaged in decades’ worth of fraudulent bookkeeping by misleading banks about the value of his assets. The Trump Organization is also now on trial, facing criminal tax fraud charges.
Some in Trump’s orbit believe that running will help shield him against potential indictment, but there is no legal statute that would prevent the Justice Department from moving forward — or prevent Trump from continuing to run if he is charged.
It wasn’t any secret what he had been planning.
At a White House Christmas party in December 2020, Trump told guests it had “been an amazing four years.”
“We are trying to do another four years,” he said. “Otherwise, I’ll see you in four years.”
That the FBI’s search of Donald Trump’s Florida home has become a rallying point for Republicans—ever eager to demonstrate fealty to the former president and rage at government overreach—is not exactly a shock. What is noteworthy is how the news might shift political considerations in MAGA world.
In another universe, last week’s FBI search could have provided a perfect opportunity for a wannabe party leader like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to set himself apart. A reckless has-been running off with nuclear secrets? Not my president! But in this universe—and given this particular cult of personality—DeSantis has parked his wagon next to all the others encircling Trump.
“These agencies have now been weaponized to be used against people that the government doesn’t like,”DeSantis told a crowd on Sunday at an Arizona political rally alongside the GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and the Senate candidate Blake Masters. If the Florida governor had been gearing up to launch his own presidential bid, the FBI search—and what could come after—might be forcing him to rethink his plans. “Now that Trump is beleaguered and in legal trouble and the current narrative is Rally to the king!, he will rally to the king,” Mac Stipanovich, a Florida Republican strategist, told me.
DeSantis has Trump to thank for his political success. The president’s endorsement—and multiple campaign appearances—helped him when he was the underdog candidate in his 2018 Republican primary, and ultimately led to his slim victory in the general election. In the three years since DeSantis got the keys to the governor’s mansion, he has worked diligently to position himself as the natural inheritor of Trumpism. He’s waded dutifully into the culture wars, opposing lockdown orders, blasting critical race theory and banning lessons on sexuality in school. He’s even mastered Trump’s hand gestures.
If the former president should decide not to run again in 2024, DeSantis has seemed ready and willing to accept the baton. In polls, Republican voters have consistently chosen him as their second-favorite choice for president.
Some strategists told me that DeSantis might even try to challenge Trump in a primary by arguing—carefully, respectfully—that the MAGA movement does not belong to just one man. “Before the Mar-a-Lago raid, I was of the mind that it would be a crowded primary” in 2024, David Jolly, a former GOP representative from Florida, told me. “DeSantis has been so strong that he could say, ‘Enough voters are asking me to get in the race; I’m going to stand. But if Trump wins, I’ll support him.’”
The FBI search, though, might have sabotaged DeSantis’s diligent plans. The news was read by MAGA world as the opening salvo of a war on Trump, and every Republican with a political survival instinct has proclaimed righteous anger on his behalf. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene tweeted an upside-down American flag in apparent support of Trump; “We are seeing the justice system being used as a hammer to batter political opponents,” the Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano told Newsmax. Even former Vice President Mike Pence came to Trump’s defense, despite recent reporting that Trump had expressed support for Pence’s hanging: “I share the deep concern of millions of Americans over the unprecedented search of the personal residence of President Trump,” Pence tweeted.
DeSantis, too, was not about to bite the hand that feeds. He issued an angry tweet condemning the Biden “Regime” for its overreach. As DeSantis continues to campaign for MAGA-type candidates ahead of the midterms, including Mastriano in Pennsylvania and the Senate candidate J. D. Vance of Ohio, you can bet that he’ll keep talking about “the raid,” pointing to it as evidence of a leftist takeover of American government. This may be pure pandering. “There is no [advantage] in being seen to betray Donald Trump in his hour of travail,” Stipanovich said. Doing so risks appearing like a traitor to the MAGA cause and losing the base’s admiration. The most that DeSantis or any other presidential hopeful can do is be a loyalist and hope that, eventually, Trump falls or makes room for them to run.
Still, even in his condemnation of the search, DeSantis appears to be walking a careful line. During his speech in Arizona, he didn’t actually mention Trump by name. Instead, he accused the FBI of “targeting people who go against the regime.” The remarks seemed intended to demonstrate loyalty to the base rather than to Trump himself. Maybe DeSantis assumed that the audience wouldn’t notice? Or maybe he’s making a judgment that MAGA world wants Trump’s rhetoric but no longer requires Trump the man to be its mouthpiece.
DeSantis could be leaving himself a small opening: If the various investigations into Trump never amount to anything, DeSantis might still have room to challenge the former president. But if Trump is actually indicted for a crime related to the Capitol attack on January 6, or to whatever classified documents he’s allegedly taken from the White House, last week’s rally-round-the-king moment offered a glimpse of what we can expect. Every Republican politician, including any potential challengers, would be forced to choose between defending Trump and siding with Joe Biden’s corrupt, leftist “deep state.” “The prosecution of Donald Trump would be the most catalyzing moment available to the former president,” Jolly said. “That’s a harder case for DeSantis to get into the race.”
Last week, after the Mar-a-Lago search, Trump’s lead over DeSantis in a potential primary matchup widened by 10 points. But beyond gaming out DeSantis’s diminished options, the takeaway from the federal investigation is the simple fact that an angry septuagenarian still holds the Grand Old Party in a vise grip. Whatever succession plans those who dutifully kissed the ring were hatching, their political fortunes and futures remain tied to Trump.