[ad_1]
Public and private markets converge
Public high yield remains roughly the same size as a decade ago, about $1.5 trillion, but its composition has changed dramatically. Higher-quality issuers now dominate the market, while the more aggressive edge of credit creation has shifted toward leveraged loans and private credit.
Leveraged loans, used in leveraged buyouts (LBOs) and private equity, are now also at nearly $1.5 trillion, with private credit following a similar rise. Together, they’ve absorbed much of the growth that once flowed into the public high-yield bond market.
That migration has effectively fused the two spheres into a single continuum of credit, from liquidity on one end to flexibility on the other. As Brad Foster, Head of Fixed Income & Private Markets at Bloomberg, put it, “one of the most striking shifts in fixed income is how the once-clear line between public and private credit is blurring.” Direct lending, once a niche for single lenders, has evolved into multi-lender clubs, drawing in investment-grade borrowers and private equity sponsors who now choose opportunistically between public and private funding.
Direct lending, once a niche for single lenders, has evolved into multi-lender clubs, drawing in investment-grade borrowers and private equity sponsors who now choose opportunistically between public and private funding. This convergence reflects not only the maturation of private markets but also the structural diversification of corporate financing, a trend likely to accelerate as investors continue to search for yield and liquidity beyond traditional bond markets. “There’s almost no scenario where, in the next few years, privates or alternatives are anything less than what they are today. In fact, they’ll be significantly larger,” said Foster.
Insurance companies take the lead
The most powerful structural driver of that continuum is insurance companies, as they become key allocators to private credit.
With annuity issuance reaching about $430 billion in 2023 and projected to reach $1.5 trillion by 2030, according to Carlos Mendez, Co-Founder and Managing Partner at Crayhill Capital Management, a torrent of long-duration capital is being deployed directly into private deals.
“This is a fundamental realignment,” Mendez said. “Deposits are moving out of the broader banking community, while capital is flowing into insurance firms.”
Demographics are the underlying engine, Mendez noted. By 2034, the U.S. population aged 65 and older is projected to outnumber children under 18. More than 10,000 Americans are turning 65 each day through the decade, and their roughly $80 trillion in household wealth is expected to migrate steadily toward products that, like fixed income, deliver predictable income and security.
Scale, discipline, and the next test
Private credit is entering a new phase of maturity, shaped by diversification, scale, and a renewed emphasis on discipline. “Once synonymous with direct lending, the market has grown to cover asset-based finance, junior capital, and cross-border expansion,” said Christina Lee of Oaktree Capital.
Scale now matters as much as yield. Borrowers increasingly prefer lenders capable of providing large, repeatable facilities. Yet experience, not just size, will determine who successfully navigates the next downturn: only about 3.5% of the roughly 600 direct lenders in the market have managed portfolios through a full credit cycle.
That experience gap is prompting a renewed focus on transparency and risk controls as the industry confronts the opacity investors once tolerated. Across the market, managers are strengthening collateral monitoring and liquidity oversight, applying lessons learned from past excesses to booming sectors like renewable energy and leveraged lending. As private markets scale, old-school discipline may prove the most durable edge.
ETFs redefine efficiency and access
While private markets expand the credit universe, public markets are also evolving as fixed income ETFs become essential tools for price discovery, liquidity, and portfolio efficiency. Fixed income indices are at the center of this evolution, providing the benchmarks that underpin ETF design, guide portfolio construction, and define performance standards across the bond market.
Today, more than $1 trillion in assets track Bloomberg fixed income indices, underscoring how the ETF structure has institutionalized bond investing. Innovation now lies not in leverage but in how funds manage flows, distribute income, and maximize after-tax yield. For example, through in-kind transfers and swap-based structures, ETFs can convert coupon income into unrealized capital gains, turning tax efficiency into a new source of alpha.
The versatility of ETFs is widening access to fixed income. Investors can now use them to express precise credit views, from short-duration Treasuries to investment-grade corporates, or even portfolios that incorporate elements of private credit exposure. Active fixed-income ETFs are also emerging as a genuine growth area, reflecting the complexity and fragmentation of the bond market, which is harder to replicate than equities.
In many ways, the rise of fixed-income ETFs mirrors the broader transformation of credit markets. What began as a vehicle for equity-style trading is maturing into a strategic fixed-income allocation tool, channeling liquidity into bonds with greater efficiency, flexibility, and scale.
AI and the Fed: A new macro equation
The macro environment remains a shifting backdrop. With inflation cooling and the Federal Reserve’s focus shifting to employment, the risk of a slowdown, amplified by automation and AI-driven restructuring, now looms larger than inflation.
The rise of artificial intelligence complicates that macro picture. Capital expenditure on data centers and computing infrastructure could contribute as much as 1.5 percentage points to U.S. GDP growth annually through the decade, even as it displaces workers across industries. That scale of investment is difficult to model, and parallels to the early-2000s tech exuberance linger. Rising energy demand and power prices linked to AI infrastructure also add pressure. This uncertainty is closely monitored by the Fed.
“There’s a cyclical slowdown being masked by this structural AI theme,” Misra warned. “The Fed can’t let this run too much, so that’s why they will be quick to cut rates.”
Looking ahead
Supported by favorable demographics and policy, the bond market is evolving toward a new equilibrium, one defined by sharper credit selection, disciplined duration management, and deeper structural sophistication. With insurers driving private credit growth, ETFs redefining access, and investors rediscovering the value of yield and discipline, fixed income is entering a new phase of growth marked by stability, net yield maximization, and product sophistication.
To that end, fixed income indices will continue to play a central role in this next phase, offering the structure, transparency, and comparability needed to navigate an increasingly complex market landscape.
Discover how Bloomberg fixed income indices deliver clarity, consistency, and insight across the bond market landscape, click here.
Insights in this article are based on panels and fireside discussions at the Bloomberg Future of Fixed Income event held in New York in October 2025.
[ad_2]
Bloomberg
Source link