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Tag: fixed income ETFs

  • How often should you rebalance?

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    But markets do not stand still. Over time, some asset classes outperform while others lag. Stocks may surge ahead during a bull market. Bonds may stabilize the portfolio during downturns. As those returns compound at different rates, the asset mix begins to drift from your original allocations. 

    An 80% equity portfolio can quietly become 85% or 90% equities after a strong rally. A rough year for stocks can tilt you further into fixed income than you intended. Performance swings, good or bad, can push your portfolio away from the risk profile you originally chose. 

    At some point, the mix no longer reflects your original plan. So, should you step in and rebalance?

    You might look to large ETF providers for guidance. The answers are not always clear. The Vanguard Growth ETF Portfolio (VGRO), for example, states that its 80% stock and 20% bond portfolio may be rebalanced at the discretion of the sub-advisor. That leaves plenty of room for interpretation.

    Others are more prescriptive. The Hamilton Enhanced Mixed Asset ETF (MIX) uses 1.25x leverage on a 60% S&P 500, 20% Treasury, and 20% gold allocation. Hamilton specifies that it rebalances automatically if weights drift 2% from their targets. That is a tight band and implies frequent turnover.

    But you are not running a fund with institutional constraints or leverage targets. You are managing your own portfolio. For most DIY investors, a simpler approach works better. Rather than reacting to every small market move, sticking to a consistent, time-based rebalancing schedule can reduce complexity and prevent decision fatigue. 

    In today’s column, we will look at why you should rebalance, how different time-based approaches have historically behaved, and why consistency often matters more than perfect timing.

    Why rebalance your portfolio at all?

    Rebalancing is the process of selling assets that have grown beyond their target weight and buying those that have fallen below it, such that you restore your portfolio to its intended allocation.

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    When you combine assets that are not perfectly correlated and periodically rebalance them back to target weights, you create what is referred to as a rebalancing premium. The underlying explanation has to do with how returns compound. 

    The arithmetic return is the simple average of yearly or periodic returns. It treats each period independently. The geometric return is the compounded growth rate of your money over time. It shows what you actually earn after gains and losses build on each other.

    The arithmetic average of returns does not reflect the true investor experience. Investors live with the geometric return, which accounts for the effects of compounding and the impact of volatility. 

    Large swings in portfolio value widen the gap between arithmetic and geometric returns. By blending assets with different correlations and rebalancing them, overall volatility can be reduced. That narrows that gap and improves the compounding outcome. A simple back test illustrates this effect. 

    Source: testfolio.io

    From April 2007 through February 2026, U.S. stocks returned 10.5% annualized. U.S. bonds returned 3.16% annualized. If you simply averaged those two numbers, you get 6.83%.

    Now consider a portfolio that held 50% U.S. stocks and 50% U.S. bonds and rebalanced once per year. That portfolio returned 7.25% annualized over the same period. The difference between 7.25% and 6.83% of 0.42% per year reflects the benefit of combining and rebalancing the two asset classes rather than simply averaging their stand-alone returns.

    The improvement also shows up in risk-adjusted terms. The all-stock portfolio delivered a Sharpe ratio of 0.53. Bonds delivered 0.35. The 50-50 portfolio, rebalanced annually, achieved a Sharpe ratio of 0.62. Even though its raw return was lower than 100% stocks, it generated more return per unit of risk taken.

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    Tony Dong, MSc, CETF

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  • If not bonds, then what? – MoneySense

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    Over the same time, equity markets have provided returns well above historical averages, which can lead people to take more risk than they normally would by reducing their bond holdings.  

    Adding to that, if you look at pre-tax historical bond returns, there have been some long stretches when returns have been really bad as you can see in the table below.

    U.S. government bond returns

    Time Period Annualized Return
    Before Inflation After Inflation
    1926–2024 4.9% 1.9%
    1926–1980 3% 0.1%
    1980–2020 9.1% 5.9%
    2020–2024 -5.8% -9.6%

    Given that historical context and the knowledge that from 1980 to 2020 we were in a decreasing interest rate environment, ideal for bonds, why would you invest in bonds today? 

    Your question reminds me of a book I read about 10 years ago, Why bother with bonds? The author, Rick Van Ness, suggests there are four reasons to consider bonds: 1. Stocks are risky, 2. Bonds make risk more palatable, 3. Bonds can be a safe bet, and 4. Bonds can be an attractive diversifier in your portfolio. I’ll walk through each of these but, as I do, consider how each of these would apply to your portfolio needs.

    1. Stocks are risky

      I am guessing you have read that equities become safer over time. That is true and false. Sure, if you invest $1 today in equities, the longer you hold it the more likely you are to enjoy positive returns. You can see this looking at the historical data. Great! But does that mean equities became safer? No!

      If you have a $100,000 portfolio and equities drop 40%, taking your portfolio to $60,000, are you feeling good that the $1 you invested 10 or 20 years ago may still have a positive return? No, you are thinking you just lost $40,000. Will it get worse, will you get your money back, and how long will it take? What if you had a million-dollar portfolio that went to $600,000? 

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      Equity markets are always at risk of dropping. What if they drop while you are drawing an income or spending money from your portfolio? The reason for holding bonds or an alternative to bonds is to protect the money you plan to spend in the short term from market declines and provide liquidity for spending needs.

      2. Bonds make risk more palatable

      Holding bonds may prevent you from buying high and selling low. Imagine you have a $1-million portfolio rapidly dropping to $600,000; what are you going to do? Buy, sell, or hold? Some people will panic and sell, which is the real threat to investment success. Volatility on its own is not a problem. It only becomes a problem when it is combined with a withdrawal.  

      What typically happens when a panic sell occurs? You wait for the right time to get back into the market, if you ever get back into the market. A scared investor doesn’t wait until things get even worse to invest so they can buy low. Instead, they wait until markets recover, things feel good, and then they buy high.   

      In this case the reason for holding bonds or an alternative to bonds is to anchor your portfolio so that it only drops to an amount you can tolerate before panic selling. Liquidity is not necessarily a requirement to make risk more palatable.  

      Have a personal finance question? Submit it here.

      3. Bonds can be a safe bet

      In its basic form, a bond is a simple interest-only loan. You lend money to a government or company and in return, they promise to pay you a rate of return. At the end of the term, they give you back your money. There are some risks with bonds, often associated with changes in interest rates, the length of the term, the strength of the originator, and the ability to buy and sell bonds. However, in general they are safer than equities at protecting your capital—capital you can use for spending. Equities are for protecting your long-term purchasing power, matching or beating the rate of inflation.

      If you are considering an alternative to bonds, ask yourself: is the investment as safe as a bond? 

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    Allan Norman, MSc, CFP, CIM

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