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Tag: fiscal deficit

  • Centre’s Fiscal Deficit Crosses 62% Of Full-Year Budget Target In November

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    New Delhi:

    The Centre’s fiscal deficit at the end of November stood at Rs 9.76 lakh crore, or 62.3 per cent of the annual budget target for 2025-26, compared to 52.5 per cent in the year-ago period, according to government data released on Wednesday.

    The Centre estimates the fiscal deficit (the gap between expenditure and revenue) during 2025-26 at 4.4 per cent of GDP, or Rs 15.69 lakh crore.

    According to data released by the Controller and Auditor General of India (CAG), the central government received Rs 19.49 lakh crore (55.7 per cent of the corresponding BE 2025-26 of total receipts) up to November 2025.

    This comprised Rs 13,93,946 crore of tax revenue (net to Centre), Rs 5,16,366 crore of non-tax revenue and Rs 38,927 crore of non-debt capital receipts.

    CGA data showed Rs 9,36,561 crore was transferred to state governments as devolution of share of taxes by the Centre during the period, a rise of Rs 1,24,498 crore year-on-year.

    The total expenditure incurred by the Centre was Rs 29.26 lakh crore (57.8 per cent of the corresponding BE 2025-26), out of which Rs 22,67,700 crore was on revenue account and Rs 6,58,210 crore on capital account.

    Out of the total revenue expenditure, Rs 7,45,765 crore was towards interest payments and Rs 2,88,333 crore on account of major subsidies.

    Commenting on the data, Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist with Icra, said the rating agency anticipates a shortfall of Rs 1.5 lakh crore in the Centre’s gross tax revenues in the current fiscal relative to the FY2025-26 budget estimate (BE).

    “Overall, we expect the potential miss on the taxes side to be offset by higher-than-budgeted non-tax revenues and sizeable expenditure savings on the revenue spending front. As a result, we do not anticipate fiscal slippage at the current juncture,” Nayar said. 

    (Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)


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  • Deutsche Bank expects FY25 fiscal deficit target could be lowered to under 5 per cent of GDP

    Deutsche Bank expects FY25 fiscal deficit target could be lowered to under 5 per cent of GDP

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    A faster-than-anticipated pace of fiscal consolidation could pave the way for a sooner-rather-than-later sovereign rating upgrade for India, according toKaushik Das, Chief Economist – India and South Asia, Deutsche Bank. 

    “The Central government’s target to bring the fiscal deficit down to 5.1 per cent of GDP in FY25 and further to 4.5 per cent of GDP in FY26 looks more credible now as the FY24 fiscal deficit has finally come in at 5.6 per cent of GDP vs the revised estimate of 5.8 per cent of GDP. Indeed, the FY25 fiscal deficit target could be lowered to under 5 per cent of GDP, in our view, thanks to a larger-than-expected dividend transfer by the RBI to the Government of India,” Das said in a note.

    For FY25, Deutsche Bank is forecasting real GDP growth of 6.9 per cent year on year vs 8.2 per cent in FY24, with momentum likely to moderate further to 6.5 per cent in FY26. “We are forecasting real GVA growth to moderate to 6.3 per cent in FY25 (from 7.2 per cent in FY24) and further to 6.2 per cent in FY26. With GDP growth of 8.2 per cent in FY24E, the base will become more challenging for this year’s growth, and hence we keep our growth estimate slightly below 7 per cent at this stage (the RBI’s growth projection is 7 per cent for FY25).

    The data revisions of the past year, the GDP deflator issue and the large discrepancies in the GDP component make analysis of the trend growth rate difficult. Consequently, we rely more on the GVA growth trend as well as the momentum of high-frequency growth indicators to inform our view on India’s growth outlook,” Das said.

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