Tim Draper, founder of Draper Associates, onstage at the Web Summit 2022 tech conference.
Ben McShane | Sportsfile via Getty Images
Venture capitalist Tim Draper thinks bitcoin will hit $250,000 a coin by the middle of 2023, even after a bruising year for the cryptocurrency marked by industry failures and sinking prices.
Draper previously predicted that bitcoin would top $250,000 by the end of 2022, but in early November, at the Web Summit tech conference in Lisbon, he said it would take until June 2023 for this to materialize.
He reaffirmed this position Saturday when asked how he felt about his price call following the collapse of FTX.
“I have extended my prediction by six months. $250k is still my number,” Draper told CNBC via email.
Bitcoin would need to rally nearly 1,400% from its current price of around $17,000 for Draper’s prediction to come true. The cryptocurrency has plunged over 60% since the start of the year.
Digital currencies are in the doldrums as tighter monetary policy from the Fed and a chain reaction of bankruptcies at major industry firms including Terra, Celsius and FTX have put intense pressure on prices.
FTX’s demise has also worsened an already severe liquidity crisis in the industry. Crypto exchange Gemini and lender Genesis are among the firms said to be impacted by the fallout from FTX’s insolvency.
Last week, veteran investor Mark Mobius told CNBC that bitcoin could crash to $10,000 next year, a more than 40% plunge from current prices. The co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners correctly called the drop to $20,000 this year.
Nevertheless, Draper is convinced that bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, is set to rise in the new year.
“I expect a flight to quality and decentralized crypto like bitcoin, and for some of the weaker coins to become relics,” he told CNBC.
Draper, the founder of Draper Associates, is one of Silicon Valley’s best-known investors. He made successful bets on tech companies including Tesla, Skype and Baidu.
In 2014, Draper purchased 29,656 bitcoins confiscated by U.S. Marshals from the Silk Road dark web marketplace for $18.7 million. That year, he predicted the price of bitcoin would go to $10,000 in three years. Bitcoin went on to climb close to $20,000 in 2017.
Some of Draper’s other bets have soured, however. He invested in Theranos, a health startup that falsely claimed it was able to detect diseases with a few drops of blood. Elizabeth Holmes, Theranos’ founder, has been sentenced to 11 years in prison for fraud.
Draper’s rationale for bitcoin’s breakout next year is that there remains a massive untapped demographic for bitcoin: women.
“My assumption is that, since women control 80% of retail spending and only 1 in 7 bitcoin wallets are currently held by women, the dam is about to break,” Draper said.
Crypto has long had a gender disparity problem. According to a survey conducted for CNBC and Acorns by Momentive, twice as many men as women invest in digital assets (16% of men vs. 7% of women).
“Retailers will save roughly 2% on every purchase made in bitcoin vs dollars,” Draper added. “Once retailers realize that that 2% can double their profits, bitcoin will be ubiquitous.”
Payment middlemen such as Visa and Mastercard currently charge fees as high as 2% each time credit cardholders use their card to pay for something. Bitcoin offers a way for people to bypass the middlemen.
However, using the digital coin for everyday spending is tough, since its price is very volatile and the coin is not widely accepted as currency.
“When people can buy their food, clothing and shelter all in bitcoin, they will have no use for centralized banking fiat dollars,” Draper said.
“Management of fiat is centralized and erratic. When a politician decides to spend $10 trillion, your dollars become worth about 82 cents. Then the Fed needs to raise rates to make up for the spend, and those arbitrary centralized decisions create an inconsistent economy,” he added. Fiat currencies derive their worth from their issuing government, unlike cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, the next so-called bitcoin halving — which cuts the bitcoin rewards to bitcoin miners — in 2024 will also boost the cryptocurrency, according to Draper, as it chokes the supply over time. The total number of bitcoins that will ever be mined is capped at 21 million.
The bitcoin logo displayed on a smartphone with euro banknotes in the backgrouund.
Andrea Ronchini | NurPhoto via Getty Images
The European Central Bank gave a strong critique of bitcoin on Wednesday, saying the cryptocurrency is on a “road to irrelevance.”
In a blogpost titled “Bitcoin’s last stand,” ECB Director General Ulrich Bindseil and Analyst Jürgen Schaff said that, for bitcoin’s proponents, the apparent stabilization in its price this week “signals a breather on the way to new heights.”
“More likely, however, it is an artificially induced last gasp before the road to irrelevance — and this was already foreseeable before FTX went bust and sent the bitcoin price to well below USD16,000,” they wrote.
Bitcoin topped $17,000 Wednesday, marking a two-week high for the world’s largest digital coin. However, it struggled to maintain that level, falling slightly to $16,875. Vijay Ayyar, vice president of corporate development and international at crypto exchange Luno, warned that the bounce is likely just a bear market rally and would not be sustained. “This is just a bearish retest,” he told CNBC.
The remarks from the ECB officials are timely, with the crypto industry reeling from one of its most catastrophic failures in recent history — the downfall of FTX, an exchange once valued at $32 billion. And the market has been largely down in the dumps this year amid higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
Bindseil and Schaff said that bitcoin didn’t fit the mold of an investment and wasn’t suitable as a means of payment, either.
“Bitcoin’s conceptual design and technological shortcomings make it questionable as a means of payment: real Bitcoin transactions are cumbersome, slow and expensive,” they wrote. “Bitcoin has never been used to any significant extent for legal real-world transactions.”
“Bitcoin is also not suitable as an investment. It does not generate cash flow (like real estate) or dividends (like equities), cannot be used productively (like commodities) or provide social benefits (like gold). The market valuation of Bitcoin is therefore based purely on speculation,” they added.
Analysts say that FTX’s insolvency is likely to hasten regulation of digital currencies. In the European Union, a new law called Markets in Crypto Assets, or MiCA, is expected to harmonize regulation of digital assets across the bloc.
Bindseil and Schaff said it was important not to mistake regulation as a sign of approval.
“The belief that space must be given to innovation at all costs stubbornly persists,” they said.
“Firstly, these technologies have so far created limited value for society — no matter how great the expectations for the future. Secondly, the use of a promising technology is not a sufficient condition for an added value of a product based on it.”
They also raised concerns with bitcoin’s poor environmental credentials. The cryptocurrency’s technical underpinnings are such that it requires a massive amount of computing power in order to verify and approve new transactions. Ethereum, the network behind bitcoin rival ether, recently transitioned to a new framework that backers say would cut its energy consumption by more than 99%.
“This inefficiency of the system is not a flaw but a feature,” Bindseil and Schaff said. “It is one of the peculiarities to guarantee the integrity of the completely decentralised system.”
It’s not the first time the ECB has raised doubts about digital currencies. ECB President Christine Lagarde in May said she thinks cryptocurrencies are “worth nothing.” Her comments came on the back of a separate scandal for the industry — the multibillion-dollar implosion of so-called stablecoin terraUSD.
Banks can onboard and meet the evolving needs of business customers when they integrate and use data analytics to tailor the customer experience. Understanding what the data reveals about clients— and the gaps financial institutions can fill through partnerships or vendors’ digital products — is paramount, Dean Jenkins, vice president of product marketing at e-banking […]
Binance’s Co-founder & CEO Changpeng Zhao has given several interviews discussing the outlook for cryptocurrency following a turbulent couple of weeks in the market.
NurPhoto / Contributor / Getty Images
Cryptocurrency exchange Binance on Thursday announced new details about its industry recovery fund, which aims to prop up struggling players in the wake of FTX’s calamitous bankruptcy.
In a blogpost, Binance said it will devote $1 billion in initial commitments to the recovery fund. It may increase that amount to $2 billion at a point in time in the future “if the need arises,” the company added.
It has also received $50 million in commitments from crypto-native investment firms including Jump Crypto, Polygon Ventures, and Animoca Brands.
Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao shared the public wallet address showing its initial commitment and said: “We do this transparently.” Public blockchain data reviewed by CNBC showed a balance of around $1 billion in Binance’s own BUSD stablecoin.
BUSD is a stablecoin issued by blockchain infrastructure firm Paxos and is approved and regulated by the New York State Department of Financial Services, according to Paxos’ website.
The fund is an attempt by Binance to keep the crypto industry afloat after controversial entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried’s exchange FTX filed for bankruptcy earlier this month.
Zhao has emerged as a new savior-like figure for the ailing industry, filling a gap left by Bankman-Fried, whose firm had bought or invested in a number of beleaguered crypto firms — from Voyager Digital to BlockFi — prior to its collapse.
FTX’s failure was triggered in part by a tweet posted by Binance’s CEO which drew attention to a CoinDesk report raising questions over its accounting. Since FTX’s rapid winddown two weeks ago, investors have fretted over a possible crypto contagion affecting every corner of the industry.
In the first court hearing for the bankruptcy case on Tuesday, a lawyer for the company gave a damning verdict of FTX and its leadership, saying the company was run as the “personal fiefdom” of Bankman-Fried.
Binance said the vehicle “is not an investment fund” and is intended to support companies and projects that, “through no fault of their own, are facing significant, short term, financial difficulties.” Zhao has said previously it is his intention to prevent further “cascading contagion effects” stemming from FTX’s collapse.
Binance said it anticipates the program will last around six months. It is accepting applications from investors to contribute additional funds.
Binance said it is “flexible on the investment structure” and is accepting contributions in tokens, cash and debt. “We expect individual situations to require tailored solutions,” the company added.
Around 150 companies have already applied for support from the fund, Binance said.
Crypto markets didn’t react significantly to the news. In the past hour, bitcoin was up about 0.2%, while ether was trading flat for the session.
Thin trading volumes are expected in the U.S. as Americans celebrate the Thanksgiving holiday.
Sebastian Siemiatkowski, CEO of Klarna, speaking at a fintech event in London on Monday, April 4, 2022.
Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg via Getty Images
HELSINKI, Finland — Klarna will become profitable again by next year after making deep cuts to its workforce, CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski told CNBC.
Klarna lost more than $580 million in the first six months of 2022 as the buy now, pay later giant burned through cash to accelerate its expansion in key growth markets like the U.S. and Britain.
Under pressure from investors to slim down its operations, the company reduced headcount by about 10% in May. Klarna had hired hundreds of new employees over the course of 2020 and 2021 to capitalize on growth fueled by the effects of Covid-19.
“We’re going to return to profitability” by the summer of next year, Siemiatkowski told CNBC in an interview on the sidelines of the Slush technology conference last week. “We should be back to profitability on a month-by-month basis, not necessarily on an annual basis.”
The Stockholm-based startup saw 85% erased from its market value in a so-called “down round” earlier this year, taking the company’s valuation down from $46 billion to $6.7 billion, as investor sentiment surrounding tech shifted over fears of a higher interest rate environment.
Buy now, pay later firms, which allow shoppers to defer payments to a later date or pay over installments, have been particularly impacted by souring investor sentiment.
Siemiatkowski said the firm’s depressed valuation reflected a broader “correction” in fintech. In the public markets, PayPal has seen its shares slump more than 70% since reaching an all-time high in July 2021.
Siemiatkowski said the timing of the job cuts in May was fortunate for Klarna and its employees. Many workers would have been unable to find new jobs today, he added, as the likes of Meta and Amazon have laid off thousands and tech remains a competitive field.
“To some degree, all of us were lucky that we took that decision in May because, as we’ve been tracking the people who left Klarna behind, basically almost everyone got a job,” Siemiatkowski said.
“If we would have done that today, that probably unfortunately would not have been the case.”
His comments may raise eyebrows for former employees, some of whom reportedly said the layoffs were abrupt, unexpected and messily communicated. Klarna informed staff of the redundancies in a pre-recorded video message. Siemiatkowski also shared a list of the names of employees who were let go publicly on social media, sparking privacy concerns.
While Siemiatkowski admitted to making some “mistakes” around moves to keep costs under control, he stressed that he believed it was the right decision.
“I think to some degree actually, Klarna was ahead of the curve,” he said. “If you look at it now, there’s been tons of people who’ve been making similar decisions.”
“I think it’s a good sign that we faced reality, that we recognized what was going on, and that we took those decisions,” he added.
Siemiatkowski said there was some “insanity” caused by the competition among tech firms to attract the best talent. The job market was largely employee-driven, particularly in tech, as employers struggled to fill vacancies.
That trend is under threat now, however, as the threat of a looming recession has prompted employers to tighten their belts.
Earlier this month, Meta, Twitter and Amazon all announced they would lay off thousands of workers. Meta let go 11,000 of its employees, while Amazon parted with 10,000 workers. Under the reign of its new owner Elon Musk, Twitter laid off about half of its workforce.
The tech sector has been under pressure broadly amid rising interest rates, high inflation and the prospect of a global economic downturn.
But the mass layoff trend has been criticized by others in the industry. Julian Teicke, CEO of digital insurance startup Wefox, decried the wave of layoffs, telling CNBC in an interview that he’s “disgusted” by the disregard of some companies for their employees.
“I believe that CEOs have to do everything in their power to protect their employees,” he said in a separate interview at Slush. “I haven’t seen that in the tech industry. And I’m disgusted by that.”
Mobile banking app provider Dave has enough cash to survive the current downturn for fintech firms and reach profitability a year from now, according to CEO Jason Wilk.
The Los Angeles-based company got caught up in the waves rocking the world of money-losing growth companies this year after it went public in January. But Dave is not capsizing, despite a staggering 97% decline in its shares through Nov. 18, Wilk said.
Shares jumped as much as 13% on Monday and closed 7.9% higher.
“We’re trying to dispel the myth of, ‘Hey, this company does not have enough money to make it through,’” Wilk said. “We think that couldn’t be further from the truth.”
Few companies embody fintech’s rise and fall as much as Dave, one of the better-known members of a new breed of digital banking providers taking on the likes of JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. Co-founded by Wilk in 2016, the company had celebrity backers and millions of users of its app, which targets a demographic ignored by mainstream banks and relies on subscriptions and tips instead of overdraft fees.
Dave’s market capitalization soared to $5.7 billion in February before collapsing as the Federal Reserve began its most aggressive series of rate increases in decades. The moves forced an abrupt shift in investor preference to profits over the previous growth-at-any cost mandate and has rivals, including bigger fintech Chime, staying private for longer to avoid Dave’s fate.
“If you told me that only a few months later, we’d be worth $100 million, I wouldn’t have believed you,” Wilk said. “It’s tough to see your stock price represent such a low amount and its distance from what it would be as a private company.”
The shift in fortunes, which hit most of the companies that took the special purpose acquisition company route to going public recently, has turned his job into a “pressure cooker,” Wilk said. That’s at least partly because it has cratered the stock compensation of Dave’s 300 or so employees, Wilk said.
In response, Wilk has accelerated plans to hit profitability by lowering customer acquisition costs while giving users new ways to earn money on side gigs including paid surveys.
The company said earlier this month that third-quarter active users jumped 18% and loans on its cash advance product rose 25% to $757 million. While revenue climbed 41% to $56.8 million, the company’s losses widened to $47.5 million from $7.9 million a year earlier.
Dave has $225 million in cash and short-term holdings as of Sept. 30, which Wilk says is enough to fund operations until they are generating profits.
“We expect one more year of burn and we should be able to become run-rate profitable probably at the end of next year,” Wilk said.
Still, despite a recent rally in beaten-down companies spurred by signs that inflation is easing, investors don’t yet appear to be convinced about Dave’s prospects.
“Investors haven’t jumped back into fintech more broadly yet,” Devin Ryan, director of fintech research at JMP Securities, said in an email. “In a higher interest rate backdrop where the cost of capital has been materially raised, we don’t see any abatement in investors challenging companies toward operating at cash profitability … or at the very least, demonstrating a clear and credible path toward that.”
Among investors’ concerns are that one of Dave’s main products are short-term loans; those could result in rising losses if a recession hits next year, which is the expectation of many forecasters.
“One of the things we need to keep proving is that these are small loans that people use for gas and groceries, and because of that, our default rates just consistently stayed very low,” he said. Dave can get repaid even if users lose their jobs, he said, by tapping unemployment payments.
Investors and bankers expect a wave of consolidation among fintech startups and smaller public companies to begin next year as companies run out of funding and are forced to sell themselves or shut down. This year, UBS backed out of its deal to acquire Wealthfront and fintech firms including Stripe have laid off hundreds of workers.
“We’ve got to get through this winter and prove we have enough money to make it and still grow,” Wilk said. “We’re alive and kicking, and we’re still out here doing innovative stuff.”
FTX’s new CEO said on Saturday that the bankrupt crypto exchange is looking to sell or restructure its global empire, even as Bahamian regulators and FTX squabble in court filings and press releases about whether the bankruptcy filing should proceed in New York or in Delaware.
“Based on our review over the past week, we are pleased to learn that many regulated or licensed subsidiaries of FTX, within and outside of the United States, have solvent balance sheets, responsible management and valuable franchises,” FTX chief John Ray, said in a statement.
Ray, who replaced FTX’s founder Sam Bankman-Fried when the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Nov. 11, added that it is “a priority” in the coming weeks to “explore sales, recapitalizations or other strategic transactions with respect to these subsidiaries, and others that we identify as our work continues.”
Ray’s statement came with a flurry of Saturday morning filings in Delaware bankruptcy court. In those filings, FTX asked for permission to pay outside vendors, consolidate bank accounts, and establish new ones.
The exact timing of a possible sale is unclear. FTX indicated that it has not set a specific timetable for the completion of this process and said that it “does not intend to disclose further developments unless and until it determines that further disclosure is appropriate or necessary.”
Both FTX and Bahamas securities regulators are seeking jurisdiction over the bankruptcy process in two different U.S. courts. Last week, Bahamian regulators moved potentially hundreds of millions of “digital assets” from FTX custody into their own, acknowledging the deed in a press release after FTX attorneys accused them of doing so in an emergency court filing.
Ray singled out some of the company’s healthier subsidiaries for praise. One example was LedgerX, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated derivatives platform. LedgerX was one of the few FTX-related properties that are not a part of its bankruptcy proceedings and remains operational today. The platform, which FTX acquired in 2021, lets traders buy options, swaps and futures on bitcoin and ethereum.
The new FTX CEO asked that employees, vendors, customers, regulators and government stakeholders “be patient” with them.
FTX and its accountants had identified 216 bank accounts, across 36 banks, with positive balances globally. Cash balances across all entities totaled some $564 million, with $265.6 million of that in the custody of LedgerX on a restricted basis.
FTX attorneys also want to employ a “cash pooling system,” merging all the cash assets of each disparate FTX entity into one consolidated balance statement and in new bank accounts, which FTX is currently in the process of opening.
Notably, FTX attorneys wrote that they were “working, and will continue to work, closely with [existing FTX banks] to ensure that prior authorized signatories do not have access” to any prior FTX accounts that will continue to be used. Prior reporting and court filings have indicated that Sam Bankman-Fried held nearly absolute control over cash management and account access.
FTX’s bank accounts reflect the global influence of the crypto-asset empire. Institutions in Cyprus, Dubai, Japan and Germany held a wide array of global currencies. FTX subsidiaries held more than a dozen accounts at Signature Bank, an American institution that made an aggressive foray into servicing crypto customers in 2021. With the exception of one Bank of America account for Blockfolio, major American banks are unaccounted for on the list. Blockfolio was acquired by FTX in the summer of 2020.
In another petition, FTX lawyers moved to access $9.3 million for vendor payments that FTX called “critical.” No list was provided, but the FTX motion established criteria for “critical vendor” status.
In welcome news for customers, FTX attorneys applied to the court for permission to redact “certain confidential information,” including the names and “all associated identifying information” of FTX’s customers. “Public dissemination of [FTX’s] customer list could give […] competitors an unfair advantage to contact and poach their customers,” the filing read, potentially jeopardizing FTX’s ability to sell off assets or businesses.
FTX lawyers want the proceedings to continue in Delaware. Bahamas regulators, on the other hand, claim they do not recognize the authority of those Chapter 11 proceedings and want to hold a Chapter 15 process in New York.
Chapter 15 bankruptcy is the route that the defunct hedge fund Three Arrows Capital has pursued. The implosion of Three Arrows launched a spiraling crisis that has taken down Voyager, Celsius, and ultimately FTX.
The Chapter 11 process that FTX seeks would allow for restructuring or sale of the company to the highest bidder, although it isn’t clear who that might be. Rival exchange Binance initially made an offer before pulling it. That turnaround deepened a liquidity crisis at FTX and revealed a multibillion-dollar hole.
FTX’s first hearing in its bankruptcy court case is set for Tuesday in Delaware.
Doug Leone, managing partner at Sequoia Capital LLC, speaks during the Bridge Forum conference in San Francisco, California, U.S., on Wednesday, April 17, 2019. The event brings together leaders in finance and technology from Asia and Silicon Valley to connect and share insights.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
HELSINKI, Finland — Billionaire venture capitalist Doug Leone said there wasn’t much his firm Sequoia Capital could do to predict the solvency crisis at FTX.
Leone was asked by fellow Sequoia partner Luciana Lixandru onstage at the Slush startup conference in Helsinki: “Sequoia has been in the press a lot for the past couple of weeks — what should we have done differently?”
Without mentioning FTX by name — though strongly hinting at it (“I’m not going to mention any acronyms”) — Leone said Sequoia had done “careful due diligence” on FTX.
Sequoia, which invested $210 million in FTX, wrote down the value of its stake in the crypto exchange to zero last week after rival exchange Binance’s withdrawal of an offer to rescue the company left it facing bankruptcy.
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried stepped down as the firm’s CEO last Friday as the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. FTX, once valued at $32 billion, collapsed in a matter of days amid a liquidity crunch and allegations that it was misusing customer funds. The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Justice are reportedly investigating what happened.
“What you see at the end of the quarter is a due diligence statement [which] doesn’t reflect what someone may have done in the middle before,” Leone told an audience of entrepreneurs and investors in Helsinki.
“We’ve looked at it,” he said, adding: “There’s nothing much we could have done any differently.”
Sequoia was one of numerous blue-chip funds that backed FTX before its demise. Other backers included SoftBank, Tiger Global and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan.
In an article on Sequoia’s website, Bankman-Fried was praised as a “genius” who would go on to create the “dominant all-in-one financial super-app of the future.” In that same piece, which has since been deleted, it is revealed the FTX chief was playing the video game League of Legends while on a Zoom meeting with Sequoia’s partners.
Bankman-Fried was replaced as CEO by John Ray III, who formerly oversaw Enron’s bankruptcy. On Thursday, Ray said in a filing with the U.S. Delaware district bankruptcy court that, in his 40 years of legal and restructuring experience, he had never seen “such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information.”
Leone hinted that FTX’s implosion may affect Sequoia’s investing principles in the near term. Sequoia is “in a dream business” with entrepreneurs, Leone said. “I can tell you that, for the next three to six months, we’re going to dream a little less,” he added.
However, the venture capital investor added: “Like having a child, you forget the pain of having that child three months later, a year later. We want to be in a dream business.”
“We do not want to lose … our true belief to align ourselves with you and to dream with you — I think we lose that and we’re out of business,” Leone said.
Leone joined Sequoia in 1996 and, up until earlier this year, led the firm’s global operations. He was replaced as Sequoia’s “senior steward” in July by Roelof Botha, another top executive at the firm.
The economy was one of the defining issues of the midterm elections, with inflation and the rising cost of living topping the list of concerns for American voters.
Now, a divided Washington faces the task of finding common ground to tackle these pocketbook challenges. Supporting an open and competitive economy should be a top priority, because a competitive marketplace means more choices and lower costs for consumers, businesses and the economy.
But Washington can help unleash even more consumer benefits by modernizing its approach to financial policy and regulation. Taking an affirmative, risk-based approach to regulation will help unleash the competitive benefits of financial technologies for more Americans, from the young person using an alternative payments platform to purchase items interest-free to the local coffee shop owner reaching new customers online or the daughter managing her elder parent’s finances through budgeting apps.
Other countries and regions are updating their regulatory frameworks to account for these developments, providing greater regulatory certainty to fintechs and increased consumer choice. Modernizing the U.S. financial regulatory framework to address fintech innovations will help ensure U.S. competitiveness from a global perspective. Pilots and sandboxes that carry the appropriate safe harbors could help facilitate policymakers’ efforts to encourage and advance responsible innovation.
Consumers’ top reason for using fintech is to access their financial information in real time from anywhere, but payments are a crucial area needing modernized policy. Giving a broader set of firms, including financial technology companies, access to federal payment rails would help lower costs, drive competition and speed up payments for consumers. That can start by ensuring the leading payments companies can access infrastructure like FedNow, a real-time settlement service that the Federal Reserve is developing to facilitate instant payments 24 hours a day, every day.
Innovations in artificial intelligence and machine learning are also bringing competition to financial services. The responsible use of AI/ML technologies helps lower costs, increase efficiency, expand fairness and enhance access to credit. But there is a need for clear guidelines to continue fostering the use of AI/ML, both for the companies using the technology and the regulators overseeing it.
Strengthening consumers’ control of their financial data and affirming their right to choose their preferred financial services is critical to ongoing innovation and competition in the marketplace. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is leading efforts to establish consumers’ data rights through Section 1033 rulemaking. Conversations are also ongoing on Capitol Hill and elsewhere about the future of alternative credit services like buy now/pay later and early wage access products, which help consumers take control of their finances.
Financial technology can mean the difference between being able to pay a bill on time and incurring an overdraft fee, or weathering a short-term financial shock and turning to a predatory lender. At a time when almost40% of American adults don’t have enough savings to cover a $400 emergency, these fintech advances are meaningful because they give consumers alternatives to expensive legacy financial products.
Consumers are turning to fintech because they prefer speed, convenience and transparency. It’s time for our financial policy to catch up and embrace these critical drivers of consumer-friendly services. Modernizing our approach to financial policies will be essential for America to remain competitive moving forward and can be an area of productive common ground for a new Washington.
Banking-as-a-service (BaaS) provider Treasury Prime and API-data network fintech Plaid are partnering to deliver faster payments for financial institutions and their customers. Through the partnership which has been in the works for two years, Treasury Prime clients will have access to platforms including cash flow app Branch and budgeting tool Rocket Money to improve user […]
In this photo illustration, the FTX website is seen on a computer on November 10, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency firm, agreed to acquire FTX, another large cryptocurrency exchange, in a rushed sale in order to prevent a liquidity crisis, which is known as the “Lehman Moment” in the crypto industry.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images
John Ray, FTX’s new CEO and chief restructuring officer, said the bankrupt crypto exchange is “in the process of removing trading and withdrawal functionality” and it is “moving as many digital assets as can be identified to a new cold wallet custodian,” according to a statement tweeted by the company’s general counsel, Ryne Miller.
The suspected hack was announced by an admin in FTX’s Telegram Channel, according to blockchain analytics firm Elliptic and was followed by a tweet from Miller indicating that the wallet movements were abnormal.
Elliptic found that stablecoins and other tokens are being rapidly converted to ether and dai on decentralized exchanges, a technique the firm says is commonly used by hackers in order to prevent their haul from being seized.
“The way that these assets have been moved is highly suspicious,” said Tom Robinson, Elliptic’s chief scientist. “Very similar transaction patterns have been seen with large-scale thefts in the past — whereby the stolen assets are quickly swapped at decentralized exchanges, in order to avoid seizure.”
The new FTX chief said the exchange is coordinating with law enforcement and relevant regulators about the breach and that it was making “every effort” to secure all assets globally.
Miller, FTX’s general counsel, said the decision to push digital assets into cold storage was meant “to mitigate damage upon observing unauthorized transactions.”
People who choose to hold their own cryptocurrency can store it “hot,” “cold,” or some combination of the two. A hot wallet is connected to the internet and allows owners relatively easy access to their coins so that they can access and spend their crypto, whereas cold storage generally refers to crypto stored on wallets whose private keys are not connected to the internet. The trade-off for convenience with hot storage is potential exposure to bad actors.
— CNBC’s Rohan Goswami contributed to this report.
Sam Bankman-Fried’s cryptocurrency exchange FTX has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S., according to a company statement posted on Twitter. Bankman-Fried has also stepped down as CEO and has been succeeded by John J. Ray III, though the outgoing chief will stay on to assist with the transition.
Approximately 130 additional affiliated companies are part of the proceedings, including Alameda Research, Bankman-Fried’s crypto trading firm, and FTX.us, the company’s U.S. subsidiary.
In the 23-page bankruptcy filing obtained by CNBC, FTX indicates it has more than 100,000 creditors, assets in the range of $10 billion to $50 billion, as well as liabilities in the range of $10 billion to $50 billion. Bankman-Fried also indicated he wishes to appoint Stephen Neal as the firm’s new chairman of the board.
CNBC reached out to Adam Landis, founding partner of Landis Rath & Cobb LLP, who filed the Chapter 11 proceedings on behalf of FTX. CNBC did not immediately hear back to our request for comment.
“The immediate relief of Chapter 11 is appropriate to provide the FTX Group the opportunity to assess its situation and develop a process to maximize recoveries for stakeholders,” said the new FTX chief, Ray.
“The FTX Group has valuable assets that can only be effectively administered in an organized, joint process. I want to ensure every employee, customer, creditor, contract party, stockholder, investor, governmental authority and other stakeholder that we are going to conduct this effort with diligence, thoroughness and transparency,” continued Ray.
He added that stakeholders should understand that events have been fast moving, that the new team is engaged only recently and that they should review the materials filed on the docket of the proceedings over the coming days for more information.
It caps off a tumultuous week for one of the biggest names in the sector.
In the space of days, FTX went from a $32 billion valuation to bankruptcy as liquidity dried up, customers demanded withdrawals and rival exchange Binance ripped up its nonbinding agreement to buy the company. FTX founder Bankman-Fried admitted on Thursday that he “f—ed up.”
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and short-time Trump communications director, flew to the Bahamas this week to help Bankman-Fried as an investor and friend. When Scaramucci got there, he says, it appeared beyond the point of a simple liquidity rescue. He said he didn’t see evidence of this mishandling when he and other investors first screened FTX as a potential business partner.
“Duped I guess is the right word, but I am very disappointed because I do like Sam,” Scaramucci said Friday morning on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “I don’t know what happened because I was not an insider at FTX.”
An FTX spokesperson did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on this story, including on Scaramucci’s remarks.
In a short period of time, FTX expanded into non-crypto elements of life, such as pop culture. For example, in the past Super Bowl, it aired a commercial featuring comedian Larry David, in which David turned down an opportunity to invest in crypto. “Ehh, I don’t think so. And I’m never wrong about this stuff. Never.”
GameStop is winding down its partnership with FTX, according to people familiar with the matter. Under the agreement, announced in September, GameStop sold FTX gift cards in select stores and while FTX promoted the retailer on its exchange.
The winding down of business agreements, like the one with GameStop, will likely continue following the FTX bankruptcy filing.
The Chapter 11 proceedings exclude the following subsidiaries: LedgerX LLC, FTX Digital Markets Ltd., FTX Australia Pty Ltd., and FTX Express Pay Ltd.
— CNBC’s Jack Stebbins and Lillian Rizzo contributed to this report.
An attendee wears a “Will Work for NFTs” shirt during the CoinDesk 2022 Consensus Festival in Austin, Texas, US, on Thursday, June 9, 2022. The festival showcases all sides of the blockchain, crypto, NFT, and Web 3 ecosystems, and their wide-reaching effect on commerce, culture, and communities.
Jordan Vonderhaar | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A year ago this week, investors were describing bitcoin as the future of money and ethereum as the world’s most important developer tool. Non-fungible tokens were exploding, Coinbase was trading at a record and the NBA’s Miami Heat was just into its first full season in the newly renamed FTX Arena.
As it turns out, that was peak crypto.
In the 12 months since bitcoin topped out at over $68,000, the two largest digital currencies have lost three-quarters of their value, collapsing alongside the riskiest tech stocks. The industry, once valued at roughly $3 trillion, now sits at around $900 billion.
Rather than acting as a hedge against inflation, which is near a 40-year high, bitcoin has proven to be another speculative asset that bubbles up when the evangelists are behind it and plunges when enthusiasm melts and investors get scared.
And the $135 million that FTX spent last year for a 19-year deal with the Heat? The crypto exchange with the naming rights is poised to land in the history books alongside another brand that once had its logo on a sports facility: Enron.
In a blink this week, FTX sank from a $32 billion valuation to the brink of bankruptcy as liquidity dried up, customers demanded withdrawals and rival exchange Binance ripped up its nonbinding agreement to buy the company. FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried admitted on Thursday that he “f—ed up.”
“Looking back now, the excitement and prices of assets were clearly getting ahead of themselves and trading far above any fundamental value,” said Katie Talati, director of research at Arca, an investment firm focused on digital assets. “As the downturn was so fast and violent, many have proclaimed that digital assets are dead.”
Whether crypto is forever doomed or will eventually rebound, as Talati expects, the 2022 bloodbath exposed the industry’s many flaws and served as a reminder to investors and the public why financial regulation exists. Bankruptcies have come fast and furious since midyear, leaving clients with crypto accounts unable to access their funds, and in some cases scrapping to retrieve pennies on the dollar.
If this is indeed the future of finance, it’s looking rather bleak.
Crypto was supposed to bring transparency. Transactions on the blockchain could all be tracked. We didn’t need centralized institutions — banks — because we had digital ledgers to serve as the single source of truth.
That narrative is gone.
“Speaking for the bitcoiners, we feel like we’re trapped in a dysfunctional relationship with crypto and we want out,” said Michael Saylor, executive chairman of MicroStrategy, a technology company that owns 130,000 bitcoins. “The industry needs to grow up and the regulators are coming into this space. The future of the industry is registered digital assets traded on regulated exchanges, where everyone has the investor protections they need.”
Saylor was speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” as FTX’s demise roiled the crypto market. Bitcoin sank to a two-year low this week, before bouncing back on Thursday. Ethereum also tanked, and solana, another popular coin used by developers and touted by Bankman-Fried, fell by more than half.
Equities tied to crypto suffered, too. Crypto exchange Coinbase tumbled 20% over two days, while Robinhood, the trading app that counts Bankman-Fried as one of its biggest investors, fell by 30% during the same period.
There was already plenty of pain to go around. Last week, Coinbase reported a revenue plunge of more than 50% in the third quarter from a year earlier, and a loss of $545 million. In June, the crypto exchange slashed 18% of its workforce.
“We are actively updating and evaluating our scenario plans and prepared to reduce operating expenses further if market conditions worsen,” Alesia Haas, Coinbase’s finance chief, said on the Nov. 3 earnings call.
The downdraft started in late 2021. That’s when inflation rates started to spike and sparked concern that the Federal Reserve would begin hiking borrowing costs when the calendar turned. Bitcoin tumbled 19% in December, as investors rotated into assets deemed safer in a tumultuous economy.
The sell-off continued in January, with bitcoin falling 17% and ethereum plummeting 26%. David Marcus, former head of crypto at Facebook parent Meta, used a phrase that would soon enter the lexicon.
“It’s during crypto winters that the best entrepreneurs build the better companies,” Marcus wrote in a Jan. 24 tweet. “This is the time again to focus on solving real problems vs. pumping tokens.”
The crypto winter didn’t actually hit for a few months. The markets even briefly stabilized. Then, in May, stablecoins became officially unstable.
A stablecoin is a type of digital currency designed to maintain a 1-to-1 peg with the U.S. dollar, acting as a sort of bank account for the crypto economy and offering a sound store of value, as opposed to the volatility experienced in bitcoin and other digital currencies.
When TerraUSD, or UST, and its sister token called luna dove below the $1 mark, a different kind of panic set in. The peg had been broken. Confidence evaporated. More than $40 billion in wealth was wiped out in luna’s collapse. Suddenly it was as if nothing in crypto was safe.
The leading crypto currencies cratered, with bitcoin dropping 16% in a single week, putting it down by more than half from its peak six months earlier. On the macro front, inflation had shown no sign of easing, and the central bank remained committed to raising rates as much as would be required to slow the increase in consumer prices.
In June, the bottom fell out.
Lending platform Celsius paused withdrawals because of “extreme market conditions.” Binance also halted withdrawals, while crypto lender BlockFi slashed 20% of its workforce after more than quintupling since the end of 2020.
Prominent crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital, or 3AC, defaulted on a loan worth more than $670 million, and FTX signed a deal giving it the option to buy BlockFi at a fraction of the company’s last private valuation.
Bitcoin had its worst month on record in June, losing roughly 38% of its value. Ether plummeted by more than 40%.
Then came the bankruptcies.
Singapore-based 3AC filed for bankruptcy protection in July, just months after disclosing that it had $10 billion in assets. The firm’s risky strategy involved borrowing money from across the industry and then turning around and investing that capital in other, often nascent, crypto projects.
After 3AC fell, crypto brokerage Voyager Digital wasn’t far behind. That’s because 3AC’s massive default was on a loan from Voyager.
“We strongly believe in the future of the industry but the prolonged volatility in the crypto markets, and the default of Three Arrows Capital, require us to take this decisive action,” Voyager CEO Stephen Ehrlich said at the time.
Next was Celsius, which filed for Chapter 11 protection in mid-July. The company had been paying customers interest of up to 17% to store their crypto on the platform. It would lend those assets to counterparties willing to pay sky-high rates. The structure came crashing down as liquidity dried up.
Meanwhile, Bankman-Fried was making himself out to be an industry savior. The 30-year-old living in the Bahamas was poised to pick up the carnage and consolidate the industry, claiming FTX was in better position than its peers because it stashed away cash, kept overhead low and avoided lending. With a net worth that on paper had swelled to $17 billion, he personally bought a 7.6% stake in Robinhood.
SBF, as he’s known, was dubbed by some as “the JPMorgan of crypto.” He told CNBC’s Kate Rooney in September that the company had in the neighborhood of $1 billion to spend on bailouts if the right opportunities emerged to keep key players afloat.
“It’s not going to be good for anyone long term if we have real pain, if we have real blowouts, and it’s not fair to customers and it’s not going to be good for regulation. It’s not going to be good for anything,” Bankman-Fried said. “From a longer-term perspective, that’s what was important for the ecosystem, it’s what was important for customers and it’s what was important for people to be able to operate in the ecosystem without being terrified that unknown unknowns were going to blow them up somehow.”
It’s almost as if Bankman-Fried was describing his own fate.
FTX’s lightning-fast descent began this past weekend after Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao tweeted that his company was selling the last of its FTT tokens, the native currency of FTX. That followed an article on CoinDesk, pointing out that Alameda Research, Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, held an outsized amount of FTT on its balance sheet.
Not only did Zhao’s public pronouncement cause a plunge in the price of FTT, it led FTX customers to hit the exits. Bankman-Fried said in a tweet Thursday that FTX clients on Sunday demanded roughly $5 billion of withdrawals, which he called “the largest by a huge margin.” Lacking the reserves to cover the virtual bank run, FTX turned to Zhao for help.
Binance announced a nonbinding agreement to acquire FTX on Tuesday, in a deal that would’ve been so catastrophic for FTX that equity investors were expecting to be wiped out. But Binance reversed course a day later, saying that FTX’s “issues are beyond our control or ability to help.”
Bankman-Fried has since been scrambling for billions of dollars in an effort to stay out of bankruptcy. He says he’s also been working to maintain liquidity so clients can get their money out.
Venture firm Sequoia Capital, which first backed FTX in 2021 at an $18 billion valuation, said it was marking its $213.5 million investment in FTX “down to 0.” Multicoin Capital, a crypto investment firm, told limited partners on Tuesday that while it was able to retrieve about one-quarter of its assets from FTX, the funds still stranded there represented 15.6% of the fund’s assets, and there’s no guarantee it will all be recouped.
Additionally, Multicoin said it’s taking a hit because its largest position is in solana, which was tumbling in value because it “was generally considered to be within SBF’s sphere of influence.” The firm said it’s sticking to its thesis and looking for assets that can “outperform market beta across market cycles.”
“We are not short term or momentum traders, and we do not operate on short time horizons,” Multicoin said. “Although this situation is painful, we are going to remain focused on our strategy.”
It won’t be easy.
Ryan Gilbert, founder of fintech venture firm Launchpad Capital, said the crypto world is facing a crisis of confidence after the FTX implosion. While it was already a tumultuous year for crypto, Gilbert said Bankman-Friedman was a trusted leader who was comfortable representing the industry on Capitol Hill.
In a market without a central bank, an insurer or any institutional protections, trust is paramount.
“It’s a question of, can trust exist at all in this industry at this stage of the game?” Gilbert said in an interview Thursday. “To a large extent the concept of trust is as bankrupt as some of these companies.”
Binance is backing out of its plans to acquire FTX, the company said Wednesday, leaving Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire on the verge of collapse.
The reversal comes one day after Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao announced that the world’s largest cryptocurrency firm had reached a non-binding deal to buy FTX’s non-U.S. businesses for an undisclosed amount, rescuing the company from a liquidity crisis. Earlier this year, FTX was valued at $32 billion by private investors.
“In the beginning, our hope was to be able to support FTX’s customers to provide liquidity,” Binance said in a tweet on Wednesday. “But the issues are beyond our control or ability to help.”
On Monday night, facing a liquidity crunch, Bankman-Fried was scrambling to raise money from venture capitalists and other investors before he went to Binance, according to sources with knowledge of the matter. Zhao initially agreed to step in, but his company quickly changed course, citing reports of “mishandled customer funds and alleged U.S. agency investigations.”
It’s unclear who is next in line to buy the beleaguered crypto exchange. Bankman-Fried told investors that the company is facing a shortfall of up to $8 billion from withdrawal requests and needs emergency funding, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Read more about tech and crypto from CNBC Pro
The disintegration of the Binance-FTX deal is the latest chapter in a shocking collapse that’s rocked the crypto world this week. Bankman-Fried tried to reassure investors just on Monday that the company’s assets were fine. But after Binance’s Zhao said publicly that his company was selling its holdings in FTX’s native token FTT, the selloff was on, and FTX could do nothing to stop it.
One of Silicon Valley’s most prominent VC firms, Sequoia Capital, sank $210 million into the company, according to reporter Eric Newcomer. FTX was telling investors recently that its operating income in 2022 was projected to drop to $144 million this year, down from $338 million in 2021, while revenue was projected to rise to $1.1 billion from $1 billion last year, Newcomer reports.
Bankman-Fried said on Tuesday that customers had demanded withdrawals to the tune of $6 billion. He also deleted tweets from the prior day indicating that FTX had enough assets to cover clients’ holdings.
Zhao told Binance employees in a memo earlier on Wednesday that he “did not master plan” the collapse of FTX. He said FTX going down is “not good for anyone in the industry” and employees should not “view it as a win for us.”
He also told them not to trade FTT tokens while this ordeal unfolds.
“If you have a bag, you have a bag,” he wrote. “DO NOT buy or sell.”
FTT had already lost 80% of its value between Monday and Tuesday, falling to $5 and wiping out more than $2 billion in a day. It fell by more than half on Wednesday to around $2.30, shrinking the total value of circulating tokens to roughly $308 million.
Cryptocurrencies have plummeted amid the deal turmoil, with bitcoin falling 15% on Wednesday after a 13% drop on Tuesday. It’s trading below $16,000 for the first time since November 2020. Ether, meanwhile, has plunged more than 30% over the past two days and is close to falling below $1,000.
Here’s the company’s full statement:
“As a result of corporate due diligence, as well as the latest news reports regarding mishandled customer funds and alleged US agency investigations, we have decided that we will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX.com.
In the beginning, our hope was to be able to support FTX’s customers to provide liquidity, but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help.
Every time a major player in an industry fails, retail consumers will suffer. We have seen over the last several years that the crypto ecosystem is becoming more resilient and we believe in time that outliers that misuse user funds will be weeded out by the free market.
As regulatory frameworks are developed and as the industry continues to evolve toward greater decentralization, the ecosystem will grow stronger.”
Correction: FTX was telling investors its operating income was projected to drop to $144 million this year, down from $338 million in 2021.
Despite incurring quarterly losses, fintech major Paytm continued to see steady growth in its lending business in the September quarter this fiscal. The platform disbursed 9.2 million loans worth Rs 7,313 crore in Q2, recording a 224 per cent year-on-year growth, Paytm said in its earnings statement.
“[Our] loan distribution business has scaled up significantly over the last 12 months, seeing increased adoption by users. We exited Q2 FY23 with disbursements in our loan distribution business at an annualised run-rate (ARR) of about Rs 34,000 crore,” Paytm shared.
The value of personal loans jumped 736 per cent to Rs 2,055 crore since last September (Q2 FY22). More than 40 per cent of the disbursements were made to existing Paytm Postpaid [the Buy-Now-Pay-Later product] users. The average ticket size (ATS) of personal loans stood at Rs 110,000, while ATS for merchant loans was at Rs 150,000 in Q2 FY23.
Total merchant loans disbursed amounted to Rs 1,208 crore, a YoY growth of 342 per cent. “Repeat loans continue to see a healthy take up with 50 per cent of merchants having taken a loan more than once. More than 85 per cent of value disbursed this quarter was to merchants with a deployed Paytm payment device,” the company said in exchange filings.
Meanwhile, Paytm Postpaid, which powers purchases at checkouts with instant credit, disbursed loans worth Rs 4,050 crore, growing at 449 per cent. This was driven by increasing user adoption and rising offline-online merchant acceptance, with the network reaching 15 million at the end of Q2 FY23. Paytm Postpaid’s signed-up user base has now crossed 6 million. “Postpaid continues to show significant cross-sell opportunities in personal loans and credit cards,” according to the company.
Even though Paytm’s lending business has grown consistently, the Vijay Shekhar Sharma-led company reckons it is still an under-penetrated market, with more headroom for growth and at high profit margins.
Paytm Postpaid penetration stands at 4 per cent of average Monthly Transacting Users (MTU); personal loans penetration is at a mere 0.6 per cent of average MTU; and merchant loans penetration is at 4.4 per cent of total devices deployed by Paytm. “Our penetration level for each product remains low, and gives us a long growth runway ahead,” the company said.
Overall, Paytm’s revenue in the ‘Financial Services and Others’ business was Rs 349 crore, up 293 per cent YoY, and now accounts for 18 per cent of the company’s total revenues. This is “driven by sourcing and collection revenues in our loan distribution business”, the company revealed.
It added, “Our collections efforts continue to deliver good performance, with indicative portfolio performance across loan products holding up well. We continue to seek growth and upsell opportunities as low penetration supports future growth potential, while working with our lending partners to maintain healthy credit quality.”
Has the internet of things — the vast, interconnected, computer-centered ecosystem of today — reached a point where it is so complex, so multilayered, has so many architects, and has so many national interests embedded in it that it has become a threat to itself?
Will the electric grid, the financial system or the air traffic control apparatus implode not by the hand of a malicious hacker but because the system — which is now systems of systems — has become the most subtle threat it faces?
Worse, as the speed of telephony increases with 5G, will that speed up the system implosion with devastating consequences?
Will this technological meltdown be triggered from within by a long-forgotten piece of code, a failed sensor or inferior products in vital, load-bearing points in this system?
This kind of disaster from complexity is known as “emergent behavior.” Remember that concept. Likely, you will hear a lot about it going forward.
Emergent behavior is what happens when various objects or substances come together and trigger a reaction which can’t be predicted, nor can the trigger be predetermined.
Robert Gardner, founder and principal at New World Technology Systems and a National Security Agency consultant, tells me that the computer ecosystem is highly subject to emergent behavior in the so-called complex, adaptive system of systems which is today’s cyberworld. It is a world which has been built over time with new layers of complexity added willy-nilly as computing, and what has been asked of it, has become a huge, impregnable structure, beyond the reach of its present-day architects and minders, including cybersecurity aficionados.
In At The Creation
Gardner, to my mind, is worth listening to because he was, if you will, in at the beginning. At least, he was on hand and worked on the computer evolution, starting in the 1970s when he helped build the first supercomputers and has consulted with various national laboratories, including Lawrence Livermore and Los Alamos. He has also played a key role in the development of today’s super-sophisticated financial computing infrastructure, known as “fintech.”
Gardner says of emergent behaviors in complex systems, “They can’t be predicted by examining individual components of a system as they are produced by the system as a whole — facilitating a perfect storm that conspires to produce catastrophe.”
Complexity is the new adversary, he says of these huge, virtual systems of systems.
Gardner adds, “The complexity adversary does not require outside assistance; it can be summoned by minor user, environmental or equipment failures, or timing instabilities in the ordinary operation of a system.
“Current threat detection software does not seek or detect these system conditions, leaving them highly vulnerable.”
Gardner cites two examples where the system failed itself. The first example is when a tree branch which fell on a power line in Ohio set in motion a blackout across the Michigan, New York, and Canada. The system became the problem: It went berserk, and 50 million people lost power.
The second example is how something called “counterparty risk” sped the demise of Lehman Brothers, the Wall Street colossus. That was when a single default embedded in the system initiated the implosion of the whole structure.
No Nefarious Actors
Of these, Gardner says, “There were no nefarious actors to defend against; the complex, heterogeneous nature of the systems themselves led to emergent behaviors.”
Going forward, the best practices in cyber hygiene won’t defend against catastrophe. The entwined systems are their own enemy. Utilities take note.
And the danger may get worse, according to Gardner.
The villain is 5G: the super-fast phone and data system now being deployed across the country. It will come in what are called “slices,” but for that you can read stages.
· Slice one is what is being built out now: It is faster than today’s 4G, which is what phones and data use currently. It features mobile broadband.
· Slice two, called “machine to machine,” is faster yet.
· Slice three will move vast quantities of data at astounding speeds which, if the data is damaging to the system and has occurred at an unidentifiable location, represents a threat to a whole tranche of human activity.
Self-destroying machines will be unstoppable when they have 5G slice three to speed bad information throughout their system and connected systems. Tech Armageddon.
Aerial view of the seafront Manara district near downtown Beirut.
Bilwander | Getty Images
When Georgio Abou Gebrael first heard about bitcoin in 2016, it sounded like a scam.
But by 2019, as Lebanon plunged into a financial crisis following decades of expensive wars and bad spending decisions, a decentralized and borderless digital currency operating outside the reach of bankers and politicians sounded a lot like salvation.
Gebrael was an architect living in his hometown of Beit Mery, a village eleven miles due east of Beirut. He had lost his job and needed to figure out another way to quickly get ahold of cash. In the spring of 2020, Gebrael says, the banks were closed and locals were barred from withdrawing money from their accounts. Receiving cash via international wire transfer wasn’t a great option either, since these services would take U.S. dollars from the sender and give Lebanese pounds to the recipient at a much lower rate than market value, according to the 27-year-old.
“I would lose around half of the value,” explained Gebrael of the experience. “That’s why I was looking at bitcoin – it was a good way to get money from abroad.”
Gebrael discovered a subreddit dedicated to connecting freelancers with employers willing to pay in bitcoin. The architect’s first job was to film a short commercial for a company that sold tires. Gebrael was paid $5 in bitcoin. Despite the tiny amount, he was hooked.
Georgio Abou Gebrael filmed a short commercial for a company that sells tires, in exchange for $5 worth of bitcoin.
Georgio Abou Gebrael
Today, half of Gebrael’s income is from freelance work, 90% of which is paid in bitcoin. The other half comes from a U.S. dollar-denominated salary paid by his new architecture firm. Beyond being a convenient way to earn a living, bitcoin has also become his bank.
“When I get paid from my architecture job, I withdraw all my money,” continued Gebrael. He then uses that cash to buy small amounts of bitcoin every Saturday. The rest he keeps as spending money for daily needs and home renovations.
Gebrael isn’t alone in seeking alternative ways to earn, save, and spend money in Lebanon – a country whose banking system is fundamentally broken after decades of mismanagement. The local currency has lost more than 95% of its value since Aug. 2019, the minimum wage has effectively plummeted from $450 to $17 a month, pensions are virtually worthless, Lebanon’s triple-digit inflation rate is expected to be second only to Sudan this year, and bank account balances are just numbers on paper.
“Not everyone believes that the banks are bankrupt, but the reality is that they are,” said Ray Hindi, CEO of a Zurich-based management firm dedicated to digital assets.
“The situation hasn’t really changed since 2019. Banks limited withdrawals, and those deposits became IOUs. You could have taken out your money with a 15% haircut, then 35%, and today, we’re at 85%,” continued Hindi, who was born and raised in Lebanon before leaving at the age of 19.
“Still, people look at their bank statements and believe that they’re going to be made whole at some point,” he said.
Despite losing nearly all of their savings and pension, Gebrael’s parents – both of whom are career government employees – are holding out hope that the existing financial system will rightsize at some point. In the meantime, Gebrael is covering the difference.
Others have lost faith in the monetary system altogether. Enter cryptocurrency.
CNBC spoke with multiple locals, many of whom consider cryptocurrencies a lifeline for survival. Some are mining for digital tokens as their sole source of income while they hunt for a job. Others arrange clandestine meetings via Telegram to swap the stablecoin tether for U.S. dollars in order to buy groceries. Although the form that crypto adoption takes varies depending upon the person and the circumstances, nearly all of these locals craved a connection to money that actually makes sense.
“Bitcoin has really given us hope,” Gebrael said. “I was born in my village, I’ve lived here my whole life, and bitcoin has helped me to stay here.”
Bettmann | Lebanon League of Progress | Getty Images
Between the end of the second World War and the start of Lebanon’s civil war in 1975, Beirut was in its golden age, earning it the title of “the Paris of the Middle East.” The world’s elite flocked to the Lebanese capital, which boasted a sizable Francophone population, Mediterranean seaside cafes, and a banking sector known for its resilience and emphasis on secrecy.
Even after the brutal 15-year civil war ended in 1990, Lebanon competed with offshore banking jurisdictions such as Switzerland and the Cayman Islands as an ideal destination for the rich to park their cash. Lebanese banks offered both a certain degree of anonymity and interest rates ranging from highs of 15% to 31% on U.S. dollars, according to one estimate shared by Dan Azzi, an economist and former CEO of the Lebanese subsidiary of Standard Chartered Bank. In return, Lebanon drew in the foreign currencies that it so desperately needed to re-stock its coffers after the civil war.
There were strings attached. Some banks, for example, had a lock-up window of three years and steep minimum balance requirements. But for a while, the system worked pretty well for everyone involved. The banks got an influx of cash, depositors saw their balances swiftly grow, and the government went on an undisciplined spending spree with the money it borrowed from the banks. The mirage of easy money was further reinforced by the government putting some of that borrowed cash towardmaintaining a fixed exchange rate for deposit inflows at an overvalued peg.
Tourism and international aid, plus foreign direct investment from oil-rich Gulf states, also went a long way toward shoring up the balance sheet of the central bank, Banque du Liban. The country’s brain drain and the subsequent boom in remittance payments sent home by the Lebanese diaspora injected dollars as well.
World Bank data shows remittances as a percentage of gross domestic product peaked at more than 26% in 2004, though it stayed high through the 2008 global financial crisis. Those payments, however, began to slow through the 2010s amid unrest throughout the region, and the growing prominence of Hezbollah – an Iranian-backed, Shiite political party and militant group – in Lebanon alienated some of the country’s biggest donors.
To try to stave off a total economic meltdown, in 2016, central bank chief Riad Salameh, an ex-Merrill Lynch banker who had been on the job since the early 1990s, decided to dial up banking incentives. People willing to deposit U.S. dollarsearned astronomical interest on their money, which proved especially compelling at a time when returns elsewhere in the world were relatively underwhelming. El Chamaa tells CNBC that those who deposited U.S. dollars and then converted those dollars to Lebanese lira earned the highest interest.
The era of easy money fell off a cliff in October 2019, when the government proposed a flurry of taxation on everything from gas, to tobacco, to WhatsApp calls. People took to the streets in what became known as the October 17 Revolution.
As the masses revolted, the government defaulted on its sovereign debt for the first time ever in early 2020, just as the Covid pandemic took hold around the world. Making a terrible situation worse, in Aug. 2020, an explosion of a stockpile of ammonium nitrate stored at the port in Beirut – blamed on gross government negligence – killed more than 200 people and cost the city billions of dollars in damages.
Anti-government protesters take part in a demonstration against the political elites and the government, in Beirut, Lebanon, on August 8, 2020 after the massive explosion at the Port of Beirut.
STR | NurPhoto via Getty Images
The banks, spooked by all the chaos, first limited withdrawals and then shut their doors entirely as much of the world descended into lockdown. Hyperinflation took root. The local currency, which had a peg of 1,500 Lebanese pounds to $1 for 25 years, began to rapidly depreciate. The street rate is now around 40,000 pounds to $1.
“You need a backpack to go for lunch with a group of people,” explained Hindi.
After re-opening, the banks refused to keep up with this extreme depreciation, and offered much lower exchange rates for U.S. dollars than they were worth on the open market. So money in the bank was suddenly worth much less.
Azzi dubbed this new form of money “lollars,” referring to U.S. dollars deposited into the Lebanese banking system before 2019. Today, withdrawals of lollars are capped, and each lollar is paid out at a rate worth about 15% of its actual value, according to estimates from multiple locals and experts living across Lebanon.
Meanwhile, banks still offer the full market-rate exchange rate for U.S. dollars deposited after 2019. These are now known colloquially as “fresh dollars.”
For many Lebanese, this was the point at which money just stopped making sense.
“I send actual dollars from my dollar account in Switzerland to my dad’s Lebanese account,” Hindi told CNBC. “They count as fresh dollars because it came from abroad, but of course, my dad is running counterparty risk with the bank.”
Mohamad El Chamaa, a 27-year-old Beirut-based journalist at L’Orient Today tells CNBC that when the bank began instituting these restrictions, he had $3,000 in his savings account from odd jobs he did in grad school.
“One of my life’s regrets was not withdrawing my money in full before the crisis hit,” said El Chamaa, who is studying for a Masters in Urban Planning at the American University of Beirut. “I could see the writing on the wall, because the bank started charging me a small percentage for every dollar withdrawal I made a month before the crisis hit, which I thought was kind of odd.”
El Chamaa says that he has since grown accustomed to withdrawing money from his bank account at a “bad rate” of 10% to 15% of its original worth, but “there is no way in hell” he would ever deposit cash in a Lebanese bank ever again. Instead, he keeps what remains of his life savings in cash and just uses his bank account to pay for his iCloud service and music streaming account.
Currency exchange dealer in Lebanon shows a U.S. dollar and Lebanese lira as the value of the country’s currency against the USD continues to plunge.
Houssam Shbaro | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Access to his account is spotty. The banks closed again in September, and there are daily nationwide power cuts, which translate to limited ATM access.
“It gets worse over time, but the fundamentals have been bad since 2019. They haven’t changed that much,” said Hindi.
The World Bank says Lebanon’s economic and financial crisis is among the worst it’s seen anywhere on the planet since the 1850s. The United Nations estimates that 78% of the Lebanese population has now fallen below the poverty line.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimate losses at the local banks are around $65 billion to $70 billion – a figure that is four times the country’s entire GDP. Fitch projects inflation rising to 178% this year – worse than in both Venezuela and Zimbabwe – and there are conflicting messages from the government’s top brass as to whether the country is officially bankrupt.
The International Monetary Fund is in talks with Lebanon to put a big bandaid over the whole mess. The global lender is considering extending a $3 billion lifeline – with a lot of conditions attached. Meanwhile, there is a power vacuum as Parliament keeps trying and failing to elect a president.
Demonstrator looks on as Lebanese policemen stand guard outside the Central Bank in Dec. 2018.
A little over two years ago, Ahmad Abu Daher and his friend began mining ether with three machines running on hydroelectric power in Zaarouriyeh, a town 30 miles south of Beirut in the Chouf Mountains.
At the time, ethereum — the blockchain underpinning the ether token — operated on a proof-of-work model, in which miners around the world would run high-powered computers that crunched math equations in order to validate transactions and simultaneously create new tokens. This is how the bitcoin network is still secured today.
The process requires expensive equipment, some technical know-how, and a lot of electricity. Because miners at scale compete in a low-margin industry, where their only variable cost is energy, they are driven to migrate to the world’s cheapest sources of power.
Abu Daher taps into a hydropower project which harnesses electricity from the 90-mile Litani River that cuts across southern Lebanon. He says he is getting 20 hours a day of electricity at old pre-inflationary rates.
“So basically, we are paying very cheap electricity, and we are getting fresh dollars through mining,” continued Abu Daher.
Ahmad Abu Daher and his friend began mining ether with three machines running on hydroelectric power in Zaarouriyeh, a town 30 miles south of Beirut in the Chouf Mountains. Abu Daher has since scaled his business to thousands of machines spread across Lebanon.
Ahmad Abu Daher
When 22-year-old Abu Daher saw that his mining venture was profitable, he and his friend expanded the operation.
They built their own farm with rigs acquired at fire sale prices from miners in China and began re-selling and repairing mining equipment for others. They also started to host rigs for people living across Lebanon, who needed stable money but lacked the technical expertise, as well as the access to cheap and steady electricity — a highly coveted commodity in a country with crippling electricity blackouts. Abu Daher also has customers outside of Lebanon, in Syria, Turkey, France, and the United Kingdom.
It has been 26 months since they first set up shop, and business is thriving, according to Abu Daher. He says that he had profits of $20,000 in September — half from mining, half from selling machines and trading in crypto.
The government, facing electrical shortages, is trying to crack down.
In Jan., police raided a small crypto mining farm in the hydro-powered town of Jezzine, seizing and dismantling mining rigs in the process. Soon after, the Litani River Authority, which oversees the country’s hydroelectric sites, reportedly said that “energy intensive cryptomining” was “straining its resources and draining electricity.”
AntMiner L3++ miners running at one of Ahmad Abu Daher’s crypto farms in Mghayriyeh in the Chouf Mountains.
Ahmad Abu Daher
“We had some meetings with the police, and we don’t have any problems with them, because we are taking legal electricity, and we are not affecting the infrastructure,” he said.
Whereas Abu Daher says that he has set up a meter that officially tracks how much energy his machines have consumed, other miners have allegedly hitched their rigs to the grid illegally and are not paying for power.
“Basically, a lot of other persons are having some issues, because they are not paying for electricity, and they are affecting the infrastructure,” he said.
Rawad El Hajj, a 27-year-old with a marketing degree, found out about Abu Daher’s mining operation three years ago through his brother.
“We started because there is not enough work in Lebanon,” El Hajj said of his motivation to jump into mining.
El Hajj, who lives south of the capital in a city called Barja, began small, purchasing two miners to start.
“Then every month, we started to go bigger and bigger,” El Hajj told CNBC.
Rawad El Hajj, a 27-year-old with a marketing degree, tells CNBC that his 11 machines mine for litecoin and dogecoin.
Rawad El Hajj
Because of the distance to Abu Daher’s farms, El Hajj pays to outsource the work of hosting and maintaining the rigs. He tells CNBC that his 11 machines mine for litecoin and dogecoin, which collectively bring in the equivalent of about .02 bitcoin a month, or $426.
It’s a similar story for Salah Al Zaatare, an architect living 20 minutes south of El Hajj in the coastal city of Sidon. Al Zaatare tells CNBC that he began mining dogecoin and litecoin in March of this year to augment his income. He now has 10 machines that he keeps with Abu Daher. Al Zaatare’s machines are newer models so he pulls in more than El Hajj — about $8,500 a month.
Al Zaatare pulled all of his money out of the bank before the crisis hit in 2019, and he held onto that cash until deciding to invest his life savings into mining equipment last year.
“I got into it, because I think it will become a good investment for the future,” Al Zaatare told CNBC.
Official government data shows that just 3% of those earning a living in Lebanon are paid in a foreign currency such as the U.S. dollar, so mining offers a rare opportunity to get ahold of fresh dollars.
“If you can get the machine, and you get the power, you get the money,” said Nicholas Shafer, a University of Oxford academic studying Lebanon’s crypto mining industry.
Abu Daher, who graduated from the American University of Beirut six months ago, has also been experimenting with other ways to get more use out of crypto mining. As part of his year-end project at university, he designed a system to harness the heat from the miners as a means to keep homes and hospitals warm during the winter months.
But mining crypto tokens to earn a living is not for everybody.
Gebrael considered it, but ultimately, the cost of buying gear, plus paying for electricity, cooling, and maintenance seemed like a roundabout way of getting what he wanted.
“It’s easier to just buy bitcoin,” he said.
AntMiner L3++ miners running at one of Ahmad Abu Daher’s crypto farms in his village of Zaarouriyeh.
When Gebrael needs cash to pay for groceries and other basics, he first uses a service called FixedFloat to swap some of the bitcoin he has earned through his freelance work for tether (also known as USDT), a stablecoin that is pegged to the U.S. dollar. After that, he goes to one of two Telegram groups to arrange a trade of tether for U.S. dollars. While tether does not offer the same potential for appreciation as other cryptocurrencies, it represents something more important: a currency that Lebanese still trust.
Each week, Gebrael finds someone willing to make the swap, and they set up an in-person meeting. Because he is often making the trade with a stranger, Gebrael typically chooses public spaces, like a coffee shop, or the ground floor of a residential building.
“One time I was scared because it was at night and the person I contacted asked me to go up to their apartment,” Gebrael said of one hand-off. “I asked them to come meet me on the street, and it all went fine. I try to stay as safe as possible.”
These kinds of backchannels have become a critical lifeline to fresh dollars, which are vital in Lebanon’s mostly-cash economy.
“It’s easy here to get cash from crypto,” said El Hajj of his experience. “There’s a lot of guys that exchange USDT for cash.”
Exchanges over the Telegram group that Gebrael uses range from $30 to trades in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.
In addition to Telegram, a network of over-the-counter traders specialize in swapping several different types of fiat currencies for cryptocurrencies. The model bears resemblance to the centuries-old hawala system – which facilitates cross-border transactions via a sophisticated network of money exchangers and personal contacts.
Lebanese anti-government protesters seal an ATM with tape in Beirut during a rally against the banking system on November 11, 2019.
Patrick Baz | AFP | Getty Images
Abu Daher offers exchange services in tandem with his mining business, and charges a 1% commission fee to both of the parties participating in the trade.
“We started by selling and buying USDT because the amount of demand on USDT is very high,” said Abu Daher, who added that he was “shocked” at the flood of inbounds for his service.
Some people are tinkering with covering their daily expenses in tether directly to avoid either paying commissions to crypto exchangers — or having to go through the motions of setting up an informal trade with a stranger.
A man stands outside a currency exchange booth in the Lebanese capital on October 1, 2019.
Joseph Eid | AFP | Getty Images
Even though accepting crypto as a payment method is prohibited under Lebanese law,businesses are actively advertising that they accept crypto payments on Instagram and other social media platforms.
“The use of USDT is widespread. There’s a lot of coffee shops, restaurants, and electronics stores that accept USDT as a payment, so that’s convenient if I need to spend not in fiat, but from my bitcoin savings,” explained Gebrael. “The government has much bigger problems right now than to worry about some stores accepting cryptocurrency.”
Local businesses in the Chouf region have also begun to accept crypto payments amid the rise of mining farms, according to El Chamaa. In Sidon, the 26-year-old owner of a restaurant called Jawad Snack says that around 30% of his transactions are in crypto, according to written comments translated by Abu Daher and shared with CNBC via WhatsApp.
“It’s better for me to accept tether or U.S. dollars due to the huge inflation in the Lebanese lira,” continued the owner, who added that once he is paid in tether, he cashes it out to fiat through a trader in the black market. He says he typically uses Abu Daher for this, since he lives the closest.
Abu Daher uses tether to pay for imported machines, but he still has to cover a lot of his expenses in the Lebanese lira (electricity, internet fees, and rent), as well as in U.S. dollars (cooling systems and security systems).
Some hotels and tourism agencies accept tether, as does at least one auto mechanic living in Sidon.
Detailed administrative and political vector map of Lebanon.
Getty Images
Indeed, new research from blockchain data firm Chainalysis shows that Lebanon’s crypto transaction volume is up about 120%, year-over-year, and it ranks second only to Turkey in terms of the volume of cryptocurrency received among countries in the Middle East and North Africa. (Globally, it’s in 56th place in peer-to-peer trading volume.)
Access to a smartphone is critical, too. Although officialstatistics show that internet penetration in Lebanon is around 80%, the country’s debilitating power cuts disrupt internet service. But the country’s telecom networks operate their own power generators to keep running continuously.
“We are putting our money in our phones. That is the easiest way,” said Abu Daher.
A Lebanese woman stands next to her empty refrigerator in her apartment in the port city of Tripoli, north of Beirut, on June 17, 2020.
In 2017, Marcel Younes was working as a marketing manager with Pfizer in Beirut when he tried to get rich by getting into bitcoin.
A pharmacist by training, Younes soon strayed from tracking price charts and instead became engrossed by the economic theory underpinning digital currencies like bitcoin.
As he continued his studies, he noticed a lot of similarities between Lebanon, Venezuela, and Argentina.
“I panicked and withdrew all my money from the bank,” said Younes, who added that he emptied his account in mid-2019 — just a couple months before banks locked people out of their accounts. “I was paranoid thanks to bitcoin.”
Younes tells CNBC that he initially moved 15% of his money into bitcoin, and he kept the remaining balance in cash. Today, 70% of his cash is in bitcoin.
“I was actually telling everyone to do the same in my family, like, please try to withdraw some money, and don’t keep it in the bank,” said Younes.
“But no one really believes a pharmacist — a person who is not related to our banking system,” said Younes.
Graffiti reading “VIRUS” and “THIEF” covers the facade of a fortified local branch of the Bank of Beirut in the Lebanese capital on May 18, 2020.
Patrick Baz | AFP | Getty Images
Younes, who was born in Poland but moved to Lebanon with his family in 1998, tells CNBC that most of his family works in the banking system in Lebanon.
“They always believe that everything is fine with the banking system, so you get this confidence that everything is alright,” he said.
Within months, his family was wiped out.
His father-in-law, who is 75 years old and retired years ago, had safeguarded his entire net worth in the bank.
“My family, like every single family member in Lebanon, got really hurt by the whole devaluation and currency crisis,” said Younes.
A by-product of the spiraling currency has been the erosion of earning power.
“My aunt, for example, she’s a teacher. Right now, her salary is $50 per month. My father, who’s a doctor with over 30 years of experience, his salary is around $500 a month,” explained Younes. “It happened gradually, because every few months, we have a small devaluation, and it all culminated in a 95% devaluation of the Lebanese lira.”
Younes has since founded Bitcoin du Liban (a play on the name of Lebanon’s central bank, Banque du Liban), a group with a mission to help close the knowledge gap on bitcoin in Lebanon through in-person meetings, online tutorials, and chats via the organization’s Telegram group.
A man holding a smartphone shows a screen grab taken from a video of an armed depositor gesturing at employees of a local bank in Beirut after he stormed the branch and held employees and customers as hostages. The man, who entered the bank carrying a machine gun and gasoline, demanded to be handed over part of his deposited money, which amounts to $209,000.
Marwan Naamani | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Multiple sources tell CNBC that people across the country are afraid to put their money in the banks or store it in cash at home because of the risk of theft. Alex Gladstein, chief strategy officer for the Human Rights Foundation, says these kinds of situations are one clear value proposition for bitcoin.
In bitcoin, one of the mantras is — “not your keys, not your coins” — meaning that rightful ownership of tokens comes through the custody of the passwords that enable the crypto to be moved out of the wallet.
“If you had your money in the bank in Lebanon, it’s all gone. Who knows how much of it you will ever see again. Meanwhile, bitcoin rises and falls in the global market, but if you self-custody your bitcoin, you always have it as an asset, and you can use it as you see fit and send it anywhere in the world,” explained Gladstein. “It has superpowers compared to fiat currency.”
There are a lot of ways to store crypto coins. Online exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, and PayPal will custody tokens for users. Abu Daher, for example, keeps 100% of his cash in online crypto wallets on Binance and KuCoin, as does Al Zaatare, who says that he saves his bitcoin on Binance.
More tech-savvy users sometimes cut out the middleman and hold their crypto cash on personally owned hardware wallets. Gebrael, for example, prefers the autonomy and security that he derives from self-custody of his bitcoin. He tells CNBC that he keeps all of his bitcoin in cold storage on a thumb drive-sized device called a Trezor hardware wallet.
A person holds a cryptocurrency hardware wallet.
Geoffroy Van Der Hasselt | AFP | Getty Images
Beyond the added security of holding his own keys and disconnecting his wallet from the internet, Gebrael says the appeal of cold storage has a lot to do with the fact that he doesn’t have to connect his personal identity to his bitcoin. He added that the anonymity offered by self-custody helps protect him from being caught in the crosshairs of government-issued sanctions. Gebrael cited the example of the Canadian government blacklisting all crypto exchange wallets connected to the truckers participating in the ‘Freedom Convoy’ protests.
Gebrael says he also doesn’t like the user experience of centralized digital asset exchanges like Binance and Coinbase “with all their flashy charts.”
“It’s like one huge casino, and they want you to gamble your money,” said Gebrael.
Lebanon has six bitcoin ATMs — one in Aamchit and five in Beirut, according to metrics offered by coinatmradar.com. But those who spoke with CNBC for this story say that the optimal on-ramps to accessing bitcoin are either earning it (through mining or paid work), or buying it with tether.
A worker uses a mobile phone torchlight to illuminate his cutting space at the fish market, where portable emergency lighting runs due to a power cut, in Beirut, Lebanon, on Wednesday, Sept. 8, 2021.
Francesca Volpi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
When asked how reliable it is to safeguard wealth in an inherently volatile asset like bitcoin — which is down more than 70% in the last year — Younes says that “it’s a matter of perception.”
“If you go back to two, three years ago, it was $3,500,” said Younes, who added that he isn’t really concerned about the price of bitcoin.
When Younes first bought bitcoin, it was trading at about $20,000, so as of today, he tells CNBC that he hasn’t made any money. But investing his cash into the world’s largest cryptocurrency also has to do with the fact that he wants to bet on a new monetary system.
“Bitcoin offers a system that is uncorruptible; a system that is basically permissionless and censorship-resistant,” he said. “No one can really devalue bitcoin due to its monetary policy, which is 21 million bitcoin.”
Ultimately, money is a human belief system. For some in Lebanon, it has been a lifeline, for others, it’s a passing fad.
El Chamaa hasn’t turned to crypto, and he stands by the decision, even after spending time reporting on the ground at Abu Daher’s crypto mines.
“If you look at what bitcoin and ethereum are worth today, I mean, it’s worth a fraction of what it was a year ago. So I’m kind of glad I didn’t get into it,” said El Chamaa.
“Warren Buffett is basically saying that it doesn’t have an intrinsic value and just passing it on to the next person and helping to make a profit off of that doesn’t make any sense. So I’m a bit skeptical,” he said.
SINGAPORE — Banks have to prioritize consumer protection as they embark on digital asset experiments, said Umar Farooq, chief executive officer of JPMorgan’s blockchain unit Onyx.
Many blockchain projects and other crypto protocols have the potential to make financial services more efficient, accessible and affordable. But without proper precautions, they could also expose customers to cybersecurity risks.
In recent months, many crypto investors have been struck by hacks and scams. For example, crypto exchange Binance was hit by a $570 million hack in October and Deribit lost $28 million in a hot wallet hack this month.
“What a bank needs to do from a regulatory point of view and customer’s point of view is that we need to protect our customers. We cannot lose their money,” Farooq said during a panel at the Singapore Fintech Festival 2022 on Wedneday.
“I do think you need some sort of identity solution or know-your-customer solution which verifies who the human being that is interacting is and what they are allowed to do. Because without that, in the longer term, it just doesn’t work,” he added.
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Farooq explained that JPMorgan is using a solution called verifiable credentials that live in the customer’s blockchain wallet. When the customer goes to a protocol to trade, the protocol validates the credential.
“I can’t foresee people being able to send money across borders if no one checks and no one knows who’s sending money to who, because sooner or later they will be in a money laundering incident,” said Farooq.
“So those are the very fundamental things that need to be addressed before you even get to systematic issues. Education, protection and identity need to be in place,” he added.
Farooq and Onyx tackled some of these security and verification issues as part of Project Guardian, an industry pilot the Monetary Authority of Singapore announced in May.
“It was very, very hard,” Farooq said.
In the pilot, DBS Bank, JPMorgan and SBI Digital Asset Holdings conducted transactions in tokenized foreign exchange and government bonds. Tokenizing a financial asset involves converting its ownership rights into digital tokens. It allows financial transactions such as borrowing and lending to be performed autonomously on a blockchain without the need for intermediaries.
“It was the first time we had tokenized deposits. I actually think it’s the first time any bank in the world has tokenized wallets on a public blockchain,” Farooq told CNBC in an interview.
“Using public blockchain, we had to spend a lot of time thinking through identity. We did lots of audits of smart contracts because again — they were publicly visible. And finally, it was using a protocol to actually make it all happen. It’s a lot of managing the risks. All of these were firsts for us,” he said.
Representations of cryptocurrency Bitcoin are seen in this illustration, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
Dado Ruvic | Reuters
Bitcoin’s lack of volatility lately isn’t a bad thing and could actually point to signs of a “bottoming out” in prices, analysts and investors told CNBC.
Digital currencies have fallen sharply since a scorching run in 2021 which saw bitcoin climb as high as $68,990. But for the past few months, bitcoin’s price has bounced stubbornly around $20,000 in a sign that volatility in the market has settled.
Last week, the cryptocurrency’s 20-day rolling volatility fell below that of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes for the first time since 2020, according to data from crypto research firm Kaiko.
Stocks and cryptocurrencies are both down sharply this year as interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar weighed on the sector.
Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks has increased over time as more institutional investors have invested in crypto.
But bitcoin’s price has stabilized recently. And for some investors, that easing of volatility is a good sign.
“Bitcoin has essentially been range bound between 18-25K for 4 months now, which indicates consolidation and a potential bottoming out pattern, given we are seeing the Dollar index top out as well,” Vijay Ayyar, head of international at crypto exchange Luno, told CNBC in emailed comments.”
“In previous cases such as in 2015, we’ve seen BTC bottom when DXY has topped, so we could be seeing a very similar pattern play out here.”
Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo, said bitcoin’s price stability was “a strong sign that the digital assets market has matured and is becoming less fragmented.”
Cryptocurrencies have suffered a brutal comedown this year, losing $2 trillion in value since the height of the 2021 rally. Bitcoin, the world’s biggest digital coin, is off around 70% from its November peak.
The current so-called “crypto winter” is largely the result of aggressive tightening from the Fed, which has been hiking interest rates in an effort to tame rocketing inflation. Large crypto investors with highly leveraged bets like Three Arrows Capital were floored by the pressure on prices, further accelerating the market’s drop.
However, some investors think the ice may now be beginning to thaw.
There are signs of an “accumulation phase,” according to Ayyar, when institutional investors are more willing to place bets on bitcoin given the lull in prices.
“Bitcoin being stuck in such a range does make it boring, but this is also when retail loses interest and smart money starts to accumulate,” Ayyar said.
Matteo Dante Perruccio, president of international at digital asset management firm Wave Financial, said he’s seen a “counterintuitive increase in demand of traditional institutional investors in crypto during what is a time where generally you would see interest fall off in the traditional markets.”
Financial institutions have continued taking steps into crypto despite the fall in prices and waning interest from retail investors.
Goldman Sachs suggested we may be close to the end of a “particularly bearish” period in the latest cycle of crypto movements. In a note released Thursday, analysts at the bank said there were parallels with bitcoin’s trading in Nov. 2018, when prices steadied for a while before rising steadily.
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“Low volatility [in Nov. 2018] was following a large bitcoin bear market,” Goldman’s analysts wrote, adding that “crypto QT” (quantitative tightening) occurred as investors poured out of stablecoins like tether, reducing liquidity. The circulating supply of USD Coin — a stablecoin that’s pegged to the U.S. dollar — has fallen $12 billion since June, while tether’s circulating supply has dropped over $14 billion since May.
Selling pressure has slowed, too, as bitcoin miners reduced their sales of the cryptocurrency, suggesting the worst may be over for the mining space. Publicly-traded bitcoin miners sold 12,000 bitcoins in June and only around 3,000 in September, according to Goldman Sachs.
Wave Financial’s Perruccio expects the second quarter of next year to be the time when crypto winter finally comes to an end.
“We’ll have seen a lot more failures in the DeFi [decentralized finance] space, a lot of the smaller players, which is absolutely necessary for the industry to evolve,” he added.
James Butterfill, head of research at crypto asset management firm CoinShares, said it was difficult to draw too many conclusions at this stage. However, he added, “we err on the side of greater potential for upside rather than further price falls.”
“The largest fund outflows recently have been in short-Bitcoin positions (US$15m this month, 10% of AuM), while we have seen small but uninterrupted inflows into long Bitcoin over the last 6 weeks,” Butterfill told CNBC via email.
The main thing that would lead to greater buying of bitcoin would be a signal from the Federal Reserve that it plans to ease its aggressive tightening, Butterfill said.
The Fed is expected to hike rates by 75 basis points at its meeting next week, but officials at the central bank are reportedly considering slowing the pace of future increases.
“Clients are telling us that once the Fed pivots, or is close to it, they will begin adding positions to Bitcoin,” Butterfill said. “The recent liquidations of net shorts is in sync with what we are seeing from a fund flows perspective and implies short sellers are beginning to capitulate.”
An array of bitcoin mining units inside a container at a Cleanspark facility in College Park, Georgia, U.S., on Friday, April 22, 2022.
Elijah Nouvelage | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Core Scientific, one of the largest publicly traded crypto mining companies in the U.S., raised the possibility of bankruptcy in a statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company also disclosed that it will not make its debt payments coming due in late Oct. and early Nov.
Core’s stock was down as much as 77% on Thursday following the filing.
Since listing on the Nasdaq through a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, Core’s market capitalization has fallen to $90 million, down from a $4.3 billion valuation in July 2021 when the company went public. The stock is now down more than 97% this year. In the event of a bankruptcy, Core says that holders of its common stock could suffer “a total loss of their investment.”
Core Scientific mines for proof-of-work cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. The process involves powering data centers across the country, packed with highly specialized computers that crunch math equations in order to validate transactions and simultaneously create new tokens. The process requires expensive equipment, some technical know-how, and a lot of electricity.
Core, which primarily mints bitcoin, has seen the price of the token drop from an all-time high above $69,000 in Nov. 2021, to around $20,500. That 70% loss in value, paired with greater competition among miners — and increased energy prices — have compressed itsprofit margins.
The crypto miner said its “operating performance and liquidity have been severely impacted by the prolonged decrease in the price of bitcoin, the increase in electricity costs,” as well as “the increase in the global bitcoin network hash rate” — a term used to describe the computing power of all miners in the bitcoin network.
The filing also blamed “litigation with Celsius Networks LLC and its affiliates” for Core’s financial struggles. Celsius was once one of the biggest names in the crypto lending space, offering annual returns of nearly 19%, until it filed for bankruptcy this spring.
The Austin, Texas-based miner, which has operations in North Dakota, North Carolina, Georgia, and Kentucky, says that it may “seek alternative sources of equity or debt financing.” The company is also considering asset sales, as well as delaying larger capital expenditures, including construction projects.
As for its creditors, Core wrote in the filing that they were free to sue the company for nonpayment, take action with respect to collateral, as well as“electing to accelerate the principal amount of such debt.”
Analysts believe Chapter 11 bankruptcy is a real possibility.
“With the substantial decline in mining rig prices in 2022, we believe there’s a significant chance the creditors holding this debt decide to restructure instead of taking possession of the collateral,” wrote analysts from Compass Point. “Still, without knowing how discussions are going with CORZ’s creditors, we think a scenario where CORZ has to file for Chapter 11 protection has to be taken seriously, especially if BTC prices decline further from current levels.”
Core — which is one of the largest providers of blockchain infrastructure and hosting, as well as one of the largest digital asset miners, in North America — isn’t alone in its struggles. Compute North, which provides hosting services and infrastructure for crypto mining, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Sept., and at least one other miner, Marathon Digital Holdings, reported an $80 million exposure to the bankrupt mining firm.