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Tag: Financial Investment Services

  • Credit Suisse shares tumble after flagging $1.6 billion 4Q loss amid strain for wealth management comes

    Credit Suisse shares tumble after flagging $1.6 billion 4Q loss amid strain for wealth management comes

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    Credit Suisse Group AG shares tumbled in Wednesday morning trading after the bank said asset outflows at its wealth-management business would lead to a fifth consecutive quarterly loss.

    Shares
    CS,
    -1.45%

    CSGN,
    -4.64%

    at 0830 GMT were down 4.9% to CHF3.66.

    The Swiss lender said it expects to post a loss before taxes of around 1.5 billion Swiss francs ($1.58 billion) in the fourth quarter, after lower deposits and assets under management led to reduced commissions and fees.

    The bank, Switzerland’s second-largest by assets, said that it net-asset outflows in the quarter to Nov. 11 were around 6%, or $88.3 billion of its total $1.47 trillion assets under management.

    At the bank’s wealth-management arm, its key business serving the world’s rich, customers removed $66.7 billion.

    It came after the Zurich-based company experienced deposit and net-asset outflows in the first two weeks of October, it said, after social-media reports and a spike in credit-default swaps caused a frenzy over the bank’s financial position.

    The bank said the outflows led its liquidity to fall below some local-level legal requirements, but it maintained its required group-level liquidity and funding ratios at all times.

    Write to Ed Frankl at edward.frankl@dowjones.com

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  • Tesla stock at two-year low, other EV-maker shares plunge as concerns simmer about China, oil futures

    Tesla stock at two-year low, other EV-maker shares plunge as concerns simmer about China, oil futures

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    Tesla Inc. shares on Monday were poised to end at a fresh two-year low, with shares of other electric-vehicle makers also underperforming the broader equity market as worries about China’s COVID-19 lockdowns re-emerged and oil futures prices dropped to their lowest level since January.

    Shares of Tesla
    TSLA,
    -6.84%

    extended their losing streak to a fourth session and were on track for their lowest close since Nov. 20, 2020, when they closed at $163.20. The stock was the 10th worst performer in the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -0.39%

    and fourth worst in the Nasdaq 100
    COMP,
    -1.09%

    — and the most active stock on both exchanges.

    American depositary shares of several China-based EV makers, including Nio Inc.
    NIO,
    -4.30%

    and XPeng Inc.
    XPEV,
    -5.67%
    ,
    also underperformed the broader market. In contrast, shares of General Motors Co.
    GM,
    -0.63%

    and Ford Motor Co.
    F,
    -0.29%

    merely edged lower.

    The energy sector was taking a broad beating as well, with the SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF
    XLE,
    -1.35%

    looking at a four-week low.

    Related: GM’s EV roadmap is ‘ambitious,’ but Wall Street doesn’t give it full credit just yet

    Tesla’s underperformance as compared with the broader indexes holds on a monthly and yearly basis as well. The stock is down more than 25% so far in November and 52% this year.

    If the trend continues, this would be the worst yearly performance for the stock on record.

    The S&P has lost about 17% year to date and has clawed back to a 2% gain so far in November.

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  • Oil Could Rise After Latest EU Sanctions on Russia. Why a Rally May Not Last.

    Oil Could Rise After Latest EU Sanctions on Russia. Why a Rally May Not Last.

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    The European Union’s ban on seaborne imports of Russian oil, along with the Group of Seven’s plan to cap prices of oil from Russia early next month won’t guarantee that prices for the commodity will see a lasting rally, or that supplies will tighten further in the days ahead.

    “In isolation, the sanctions on Russia should be bullish for prices,” says Matt Smith, lead oil analyst, Americas, at Kpler. However, they may have a limited effect, as Russian barrels get “rerouted and not taken off the market,” while a price cap still has so much uncertainty surrounding it that its impact may be “muted due to workarounds or may simply be ineffective.”

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  • ‘What. H.A.P.P.E.N….’ — Sam Bankman-Fried’s latest slow roll of tweets spark scorn as well as concern

    ‘What. H.A.P.P.E.N….’ — Sam Bankman-Fried’s latest slow roll of tweets spark scorn as well as concern

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    The latest message from former FTX chief executive Sam Bankman-Fried left onlookers puzzled and alarmed after the swift decline into bankruptcy for the cryptocurrency exchange he founded.

    In successive tweets, Bankman-Fried’s twitter account merely stated, “What,” followed by capital letters H.A.P.P.E.N., unfurled slowly over the span of about 19 hours.

    Bankman-Fried has been an active tweeter throughout FTX’s demise, earlier having written that he was “shocked to see things unravel the way they did.”

    Twitter and Tesla
    TSLA,
    -2.56%

    CEO Elon Musk, who’s also having some difficulties, tweeted with fire emojis to an attempt at a translation of the cryptic tweet.

    Musk also tweeted his amusement at the claim that Bankman-Fried played a “League of Legends” game — the same game the executive infamously was playing when the venture-capital firm Sequoia invested in FTX. Court filings from Musk’s failed attempt to get out of his Twitter purchase show that he doubted that Bankman-Fried ever had $3 billion liquid to co-invest in Twitter.

    While the broader social-media sentiment was a wish for Bankman-Fried to be jailed, there also was concern for his health.

    FTX has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and over the weekend there also seems to have been a hack of customer funds. The securities regulator in FTX’s headquarters of the Bahamas meanwhile said it had not requested the prioritization for withdrawals of funds for Bahamian clients.

    Reuters reported the allegation Bankman-Fried had a “back door” that allowed him to mask the transfer of customer funds to his Alameda hedge fund, which Bankman-Fried told the news agency was just “confusing internal labeling.”

    The former FTX CEO couldn’t be reached for comment.

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  • FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried: ‘I was shocked to see things unravel the way they did’

    FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried: ‘I was shocked to see things unravel the way they did’

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    Sam Bankman-Fried, co-founder at crypto exchange FTX, tweeted Friday that he was “shocked to see things unravel the way they did,” after he quit as chief executive and the company and its related entities filed for bankruptcy.

    See: Sam Bankman-Fried resigns as CEO of FTX as cryptocurrency exchange files for Chapter 11 U.S. bankruptcy

    The bankruptcy “doesn’t necessarily have to mean the end for the companies or their ability to provide value and funds to their customers chiefly, and can be consistent with other routes,” Bankman-Fried tweeted Friday.

    Bankman-Fried has seen his net worth plunge to almost zero from $16 billion in less than a week, according to Bloomberg Billionaires index.

    FTX was once the third largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. Bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    +0.10%

    fell 3.4% Friday to around $16,838, hovering at around a two-year low, according to the CoinDesk data.

    A representative at FTX didn’t respond to a request seeking comment.

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  • Bitcoin falls to 2-year low, other cryptos down after market reacts to FTX bankruptcy news

    Bitcoin falls to 2-year low, other cryptos down after market reacts to FTX bankruptcy news

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    FTX, the crypto exchange, filed for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy in a Delaware court on Friday, and chief executive Sam Bankman-Fried has resigned.

    Following the news, here is how prices are doing for major cryptocurrencies, according to CoinDesk data.

    Bitcoin  BTCUSD, -4.92%  The price for Bitcoin was around $19,350 before the announcement of the potential FTX/Binance deal on Tuesday. The price jumped to $20,590 in less than an hour after the announcement. But dropped to a 2-year low of $17,484. Currently, the Bitcoin price is $16,907.19, a change of -5.04% over the past 24 hours.

    Ethereum  ETHE, -9.66% Currently, the Ethereum price is $1,252.60, a change of -6.60% over the last 24 hours. The price of Ethereum was around $1,438 before the announcement, and peaked at $1,562 under an hour after. Later on Nov 8, the price dropped to $1,289.

    FTT: Today the price of FTT, which is the FTX token, is $2.74, down 20.37% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data. At the beginning of the week, on Nov 7, the price was around $22.06.

    Solana: Currently, the price is $17.34, a change of 2.91% over the past 24 hours. The price of Solana before the announcement was around $27.69, and peaked at $31.29 shortly after the announcement.

    Binance Coin: The Binance Coin price is $285.74, a change of -7.02% over the past 24 hours. The Binance Coin price was around $322 before the announcement that Binance might acquire FTX on Nov 8.

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  • Crypto lender BlockFi pauses withdrawals in wake of FTX’s collapse

    Crypto lender BlockFi pauses withdrawals in wake of FTX’s collapse

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    Crypto lending platform BlockFi announced it was halting withdrawals Thursday night in the wake of the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.

    “We are shocked and dismayed by the news regarding FTX and Alameda,” BlockFi said in a tweet. “We, like the rest of the world, found out about this situation through Twitter.”

    BlockFi said that due to the “lack of clarity” regarding FTX and Alameda, “we are not able to operate business as usual,” and that until there is “further clarity, we are limiting platform activity, including pausing client withdrawals.”

    The company asked clients not to deposit into BlockFi Wallet or Interest Accounts at this time, and said it will share more specifics “as soon as possible,” though it warned it likely would communicate “less frequently” than what its clients and stakeholders are used to.

    In June, BlockFi received a $250 million bailout from FTX to help keep it afloat.

    FTX, once valued at $32 billion, collapsed this week under a liquidity crisis, and faces a shortfall of up to $8 billion, according to several media reports. Without a cash injection, the company might plunge into bankruptcy, according to a Bloomberg report.

    Also see: ‘Bedazzled by money’: Democratic ties to Sam Bankman-Fried under scrutiny after FTX collapse

    FTX founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried reportedly extended about $10 billion in loans to its affiliated trading firm Alameda Research — amounting to about half of FTX’s customer assets of $16 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    “I fucked up, and should have done better,” Bankman-Fried said in a tweet Thursday, saying he had, among other things, misread the use of margin on the platform.

    More: The $26 billion rise and fall of FTX crypto king Sam Bankman-Fried

    Late Thursday, it was revealed that Alameda appeared to have shorted the stablecoin Tether, according to blockchain data.

    The FTX fiasco has spread fear of a “contagion” across the broader crypto industry, and sent the price of bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    -3.87%

    at one point to its lowest level since November 2020.

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  • The $26 billion rise and fall of FTX crypto king Sam Bankman-Fried

    The $26 billion rise and fall of FTX crypto king Sam Bankman-Fried

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    Just six months ago, CEOs, celebs and world leaders like Bill Clinton and Tony Blair flocked to him, gathering at a Davos-like conference he hosted in the Bahamas where he lives as one of the most outspoken evangelists for the power of the blockchain.  

    Fast forward to Sunday and Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire came crashing down, the victim of an old-fashioned bank run that quickly exposed the weaknesses of the new finance system he had championed. 

    Almost overnight, Bankman-Fried’s cryptocurrency exchange, FTX, had gone from being valued at $32 billion to worthless, leaving scores of investors scrambling to get their deposits back and triggering probes in the U.S. by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice, according to reports.

    On Thursday, the 30-year-old Bankman-Fried took to Twitter to level with his clients.

    “I fucked up, and should have done better,” he wrote.

    A very rapid rise

    It took less than five years for Bankman-Fried to build a personal fortune that was estimated at its highest point to be more than $26 billion, making him among the richest people in the world.

    His schlubby, boyish appearance — ill-fitting t-shirts, gym shorts and a mop of curly hair — made him look more like a college student ripping bong hits in the basement of a frat house than a finance guru, but fit nicely with the anti-establishment ethos that appealed to crypto enthusiasts.

    The son of law professors at Stanford University, Bankman-Fried was a wunderkind from an early age. He studied physics and mathematics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

    After a stint as an ETF trader for Jane Street Capital, a highly respected Wall Street firm that is known for attracting genius quantitative traders, Bankman-Fried became interested in the concept of effective altruism, a philosophy that focuses on using reason and evidence to find solutions that benefit the most people possible. In 2017, he launched Alameda Research, a quantitative trading firm focused on digital currencies.

    Over the next year, he began building his fortune through arbitrage trading of Bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    +11.10%

    between exchanges in the U.S. and Japan, where prices were often slightly higher. In 2019, Bankman-Fried launched the crypto exchange FTX.

    The timing was fortuitous: as the COVID-19 pandemic spread across the globe the following year, interest in cryptocurrencies among people exploded. FTX took off and brought in the big-name celebrity endorsers and partners, like professional athletes Tom Brady and Steph Curry. 

    Bankman-Fried soon found himself feted by some of the biggest institutions in finance, attracting investment from the biggest names on Wall Street and beyond like Softbank
    9984,
    -2.65%

    Group, Sequoia Capital, Blackrock
    BLK,
    +13.26%
    .
    Tiger Global Management and Thoma Bravo. He even raised money from billionaire hedge fund legends Paul Tudor Jones and Israel Englander.

    Soon, FTX was among the biggest players in the industry.

    The face of crypto

    Despite his ballooning wealth, Bankman-Fried maintained the appearance and lifestyle of a teenage gamer. He moved to the Bahamas, where he reportedly lived in a penthouse apartment with 10 roommates.

    On Zoom calls, he would often play video games while talking — his favorite game being League of Legends. Profiles of him often noted that he kept a bean bag just feet from his desk to sleep on.

    What set Bankman-Fried apart from other crypto tycoons, was his professed interest in working with regulators to create a more robust framework around the nascent industry and treat it more like a traditional finance network. 

    To that end, Bankman-Fried appeared before Congress to try to explain to skeptical U.S. lawmakers how the crypto industry worked. He also said he welcomed regulation, not always a popular position in the crypto world.

    “FTX believes [government agencies] could play an even more prominent role in the digital-asset ecosystem and bring greater investor protections by closing some regulatory gaps,” he said before a senate panel in February. “FTX believes that such efforts would combine the best aspects of traditional finance and digital-asset innovations.”

    Bankman-Fried even put his great wealth to play in politics, becoming a major campaign donor for the Democratic party. In 2020, he was one of President Joe Biden’s largest single donors and spent nearly $40 million on political campaigns this year for the midterm elections, according to campaign filings.

    As cryptocurrencies have experienced significant declines in prices this year, triggering the collapse of several operations, Bankman-Fried arose as a savior, buying up several failing partners as positioning himself as a kind of Robin Hood for the industry.

    A swift collapse

    For as fast a rise to the top of the world that Bankman-Fried enjoyed, the fall was just as rapid.

    On Sunday, Changpeng Zhao, the CEO of FTX’s competitor, Binance, and an archrival of Bankman-Fried’s, announced on Twitter that his firm, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange, was liquidating its sizable holdings of FTT, the coin issued by FTX, “due to recent revelations that have come to light.”

    Bankman-Fried accused Zhao of spreading false rumors. But the damage was done.

    Binance’s move triggered a massive selloff with customers seeking to redeem some $5 billion in deposits. FTX didn’t have it and redemptions froze up.  

    On Tuesday, Bankman-Fried announced that FTX had reached a tentative agreement to be acquired by Binance, due to a “significant liquidity crunch.” The turmoil set off broad declines among several of the most popular cryptocurrencies and even spilled into the world of traditional finance, sending markets tumbling.

    The next day, the chaos increased, with reports that FTX and Bankman-Fried were under investigation by several U.S. agencies. By the end of the day, Binance said it was walking away from the deal because due diligence had revealed that “the issues are beyond our control or ability to help.” 

    Binance’s deal seemed like the only thing preventing FTX from potentially collapsing. “At some point I might have more to say about a particular sparring partner,” Bankman-Fried tweeted on Thursday. “For now, all I’ll say is: well played; you won.”

    Also on Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Bankman-Fried had been using some customer deposits to fund risky bets by his Alameda Research firm, setting FTX up for collapse.

    With the Binance lifeline gone and with few options available, Bankman-Fried told investors he needed $8 billion or more to plug the hole in FTX’s books, according to reports. 

    On Twitter, Bankman-Fried said he would focus all his efforts on making sure depositors got their money back. He also tried to explain FTX’s collapse, saying “a poor internal labeling of bank-related accounts meant that I was substantially off on my sense of users’ margin. I thought it was way lower.”

    Said Bankman-Fried: “My #1 priority–by far–is doing right by users,” he wrote. “Right now, we’re spending the week doing everything we can to raise liquidity. I can’t make any promises about that.”

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  • Crypto investors rattled as Binance abandons its proposed acquisition of rival FTX

    Crypto investors rattled as Binance abandons its proposed acquisition of rival FTX

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    Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, is abandoning its proposed acquisition of the non-U.S. assets of rival FTX, amid the latter’s liquidity crunch.

    “As a result of corporate due diligence, as well as the latest news reports regarding mishandled customer funds and alleged US agency investigations, we have decided that we will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX.com,” according to a tweet by Binance’s official account Wednesday.

    “Our hope was to be able to support FTX’s customers to provide liquidity, but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help,” Binance wrote.

    Executives at Binance have found a gap, likely in billions and possibly more than $6 billion, between the liabilities and assets of FTX, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing an anonymous source familiar with the matter. 

    Representatives at Binance and FTX didn’t immediately respond to a request seeking comments.

    On Tuesday, Changpeng Zhao, Binance’s chief executive, said the exchange had signed a letter of intent to acquire FTX.com, a separate entity from FTX.US, after FTX “asked for help.”

    Read: Bitcoin falls to two-year low after crypto exchange Binance proposed to buy rival FTX

    Investors are worried about any contagion, as concerns over FTX’s solvency spilled over to the already battered crypto market. BitcoinBTCUSD plunged Wednesday to as low as $16,863, the lowest level since November 2020.

    FTX is the third largest crypto exchange by trading volume, according to CoinMarketCap. 

    Also read: Crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried’s net worth could shrink by over $13 billion

    See also: FTX problems mean big headaches for its private equity investors

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  • Coinbase prepares for likely worse 2023, Q3 revenue drops more than 50%

    Coinbase prepares for likely worse 2023, Q3 revenue drops more than 50%

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    Coinbase Global Inc. late Thursday reported a wider quarterly loss and a 54% drop in revenue, saying the headwinds for its business will continue and likely intensify next year.

    Coinbase
    COIN,
    -8.09%

    said it lost $545 million, or $2.43 a share, in the quarter, swinging from earnings of $406 million, or $1.62 a share, in the year-ago period.

    Revenue dropped to $576 million from $1.24 billion a year ago.

    Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected the crypto exchange to report a loss of $2.38 a share on revenue of $641 million.

    Shares traded lower immediately after the report, but at last check were rising more than 8% in the extended session.

    The quarter was “mixed” for Coinbase, the company said in a letter to shareholders. “Transaction revenue was significantly impacted by stronger macroeconomic and crypto market headwinds, as well as trading volume moving offshore.”

    On the plus side, Coinbase saw “strong growth in our subscription and services revenue,” it said.

    Those headwinds, however, continued to impact transaction revenue, which was down 44% quarter on quarter, Coinbase said in the letter.

    Trading volume dropped to $159 billion in the quarter from $217 billion in the second quarter.

    “For 2022, we remain cautiously optimistic that we will operate within the $500 million adjusted EBITDA loss guardrail that we previously communicated,” the company said. That assumes that the crypto market does not deteriorate further, it said.

    For next year, however, Coinbase is “preparing with a conservative bias and assuming that the current macroeconomic headwinds will persist and possibly intensify,” the company said.

    Coinbase earlier this week said its chief product officer was stepping down as the company reorganizes its business.

    In August, the company reported a $1.1 billion loss.

    Coinbase shares have lost more than 77% this year, compared with losses of around 21% for the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -1.06%
    .

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  • Where Are Markets Headed? Six Pros Take Their Best Guess

    Where Are Markets Headed? Six Pros Take Their Best Guess

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    A massive selloff in bonds. A plunge in tech stocks. The implosion of cryptocurrencies. The highest inflation in four decades.

    Amid a brutal and uncertain climate, we asked six heavyweights in the world of finance to share their thoughts on the state of the markets, how they have handled this year’s carnage and what they anticipate in the future.

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  • Mobileye prices IPO above targeted range to raise nearly $1 billion, and most of it will go to Intel

    Mobileye prices IPO above targeted range to raise nearly $1 billion, and most of it will go to Intel

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    Mobileye Global Inc. priced its initial public offering higher than its targeted range late Tuesday to raise nearly $1 billion, most of which will go to Intel Corp.

    Mobileye priced its initial public offering at $21 late Tuesday, the company announced in a news release, after previously stating a targeted range of $18 to $20; shares are expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “MBLY” on Wednesday. Intel
    INTC,
    +0.85%

    will sell at least 41 million shares of Mobileye, which would raise $861 million, and also agreed to a $100 million concurrent sale of stock to General Atlantic, which would make the total raised at least $961 million.

    Intel paid $15.3 billion to acquire Mobileye in 2017, and was reportedly aiming for a valuation as high as $50 billion when originally planning this IPO, but instead will settle for a basic valuation of roughly $16.7 billion. After a record year with more than 1,000 offerings in 2021, the IPO market has largely dried up in 2022.

    Read: Mobileye IPO: 5 things to know about the Intel autonomous-driving spinoff

    Underwriting banks — Intel listed two dozen underwriters, led by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
    GS,
    +1.13%

    and Morgan Stanley
    MS,
    +1.36%

    — have access to an additional 6.15 million shares for overallotments, which could push the total raised higher than $1 billion and make Mobileye the second-largest offering of the year. Only two offerings thus far this year have raised at least $1 billion — private-equity firm TPG Inc.
    TPG,
    +4.21%

    raised exactly $1 billion in January, and American International Group Inc. 
    AIG,
    -0.11%

    spinoff Corebridge Financial Inc.
    CRBG,
    +1.36%

    raised at least $1.68 billion in September.

    Intel will receive the bulk of the proceeds of the offering — after promising to make sure that Mobileye has $1 billion in cash and equivalents, the chip maker will take the rest of the proceeds for its own coffers. Wells Fargo analysts calculated that Mobileye will need about $225 million to hit that level, leaving at least $736 million for Intel before fees and other costs.

    Intel will also maintain control of the company after spinning it off, keeping class B shares that will convey 10 votes for each share while selling class A shares that convey one vote per share. Intel will retain more than 99% of the voting power and nearly 94% of the economic ownership of the company, and the Mobileye board is expected to include four members with ties to Intel, including Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger serving as chairman of the board.

    Read also: Intel files for Mobileye IPO, creating a share structure that will keep the chipmaker in control

    Mobileye will continue to be led by founder Amnon Shashua, who served as chief executive before Intel acquired the company and stayed at the helm while it was part of the Silicon Valley chip maker. Shashua founded Mobileye in 1999 and turned it into a pioneer in the field of automated-driving technology and one of Israel’s most prominent tech companies.

    Mobileye filed for the initial public offering at the end of September, when executives were still reportedly hoping for a $30 billion valuation.

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  • ‘Material risk’ looms over stocks as investors face bear market’s ‘second act,’ warns Morgan Stanley

    ‘Material risk’ looms over stocks as investors face bear market’s ‘second act,’ warns Morgan Stanley

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    Stock-market investors have been adjusting to the jump in interest rates amid high inflation, but they have yet to cope with profit headwinds faced by the S&P 500, according to Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

    “While a rate peak may solidify estimates for the equity risk premium and valuation multiples, equity investors still face the bear market’s second act — the earnings outlook,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Monday. 

    “They have been slow to recognize that pricing power and operating margins, which hit all-time highs in the past two years, are unsustainable,” she said. “Even without a recession, the mean reversion of profits in 2023 translates to a 10%-to-15% decline from current estimates.”


    MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT NOTE DATED OCT. 17 2022

    Unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus during the throes of the pandemic had led to the largest U.S. companies booking record operating margins that were 150 to 200 basis points above norms seen in the past decade, according to Shalett. 

    See: Stock market’s wild gyrations put earnings in focus as inflation crushes Fed ‘pivot’ hopes

    She said that company profits may now be imperiled by slowing growth, with “demand skewing toward services” after pulling forward toward goods earlier in the pandemic, and a likely reversal in “extremely strong” pricing power as the Fed fights surging inflation with interest-rate hikes.

    “Such risks are not discounted in 2023 consensus yet, constituting a material risk to stocks for the remainder of the year,” Shalett said.

    While many sectors have discounted the potential drop in 2023 profits from current estimates that could stir headwinds even with no recession, “the megacap secular growth stocks that dominate market-cap indexes have not,” she warned. “And those indexes are where risk gets repriced in the bear market’s final stages.”

    Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson estimates as much as 11% downside from consensus estimates, with his base-case, earnings-per-share forecast for the S&P 500 for 2023 being $212, according to Shalett’s note. 

    U.S. stocks were bouncing Monday, with major stock benchmarks trading sharply higher in the afternoon, after sinking Friday amid inflation concerns as earnings season got under way. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.65%

    was up 2.7% in afternoon trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +1.86%

    gained 1.9% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 3.5%, FactSet data show, last check. 

    In the bond market, Treasury rates were trading slightly lower Monday afternoon, after the 2-year yield hit a 15-year high and the 10-year yield notched a 14-year high on Friday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Two-year yields ended last week at 4.507%, the highest level since August 8, 2007 based on 3 p.m. Eastern time levels, while the 10-year rate climbed to 4.005% for its highest rate since Oct. 15, 2008.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.992%

    was down about 1 basis point Monday afternoon at around 4%, while two-year yields
    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.439%

    fell about five basis points to around 4.45%, FactSet data show, at last check.

    Meanwhile, as investors capitulated to higher inflation, “peak policy rates moved up aggressively in the fed funds futures market, with the terminal rate now at nearly 5%, an aggressive stance that smacks of ‘peak hawkishness,’” according to the Morgan Stanley note.

    “Critically, although the market is still pricing 1.5 cuts in 2023, the January 2024 fed-funds rate is estimated at 4.5%, a comfortable 100 basis points above our forecast” for core inflation measured by the consumer-price index, Shalett wrote.

    “Consider locking in solid short-term yields in bonds and shoring up positions in high growth, dividend-paying stocks,” she said. “Short-duration Treasuries look attractive, especially because the yield is more than 2.5 times that of the dividend yield on the S&P 500.”

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  • Bank of America Reports Earnings Monday. What Wall Street Is Watching.

    Bank of America Reports Earnings Monday. What Wall Street Is Watching.

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    Bank of America Reports Earnings Monday. What Wall Street Is Watching.

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  • JPMorgan profit falls but beats estimates while Wells Fargo misses

    JPMorgan profit falls but beats estimates while Wells Fargo misses

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    JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares rose Friday after the megabank beat analyst targets for third-quarter profit and revenue and said it would top forecasts for its net interest in come in the coming quarter.

    In a busy day for bank earnings, Wells Fargo & Co.
    WFC,
    +4.62%

    fell short of earnings target but its stock rose in premarket trades as it beat revenue estimates.

    Morgan Stanley
    MS,
    +3.55%

    shares fell after it missed Wall Street’s targets for earnings and revenue.

    Citigroup Inc.
    C,
    +5.17%

    shares rose after beating its profit mark, although revenue fell 1% after breaking out the impact of divestitures.

    Overall, banks benefited from higher interest rates and strong trading volumes, but investment banking deal activity fell sharply. Banks also channeled more capital into reserves and away from their collective bottom lines to prepare for a potential economic downturn.

    As the largest bank in the U.S. and a bellwether for the sector, JPMorgan Chase
    JPM,
    +5.56%

    turned in a “solid performance” in the latest quarter, in the words of Chief Executive Jamie Dimon.

    The bank said it expects to meet its capital requirements under the international Basel III banking guidelines and resume stock buybacks early in 2023.

    “In the U.S., consumers continue to spend with solid balance sheets, job openings are plentiful and businesses remain healthy,” Dimon said. “However, there are significant headwinds immediately in front of us – stubbornly high inflation leading to higher global interest rates, the uncertain impacts of quantitative tightening, the war in Ukraine, which is increasing all geopolitical risks, and the fragile state of oil supply and prices.”

    Dimon said the bank remains “prepared for bad outcomes” so it can continue to operate even in the most challenging times.

    Dimon’s prepared statement comes a day after the oft-quoted CEO said the U.S. consumer sector remains strong currently, but inflation will start weighing on people by 2023.

    Also Read: JPMorgan CEO Dimon says inflation hasn’t dampened consumer spending yet but give it time

    JPMorgan Chase’s stock rose 2.4% ahead of Friday’s open after it said its third-quarter net income fell 16.7% to $9.74 billion, or $3.12 a share, from $11.69 billion, or $3.74 a share, in the year-ago quarter.

    Third-quarter revenue at the megabank rose to $32.72 billion from $29.65 billion in the year-ago quarter.

    Wall Street analysts expected JPMorgan Chase to earn $2.90 a share on revenue of $32.12 billion, according to estimated compiled by FactSet. T

    The bank said a net credit reserve build of $808 million ate into its net income for the latest quarter, compared with a net reserve release of $2.1 billion in the prior year.

    Net interest income climbed 34% to $17.6 billion and net interest income excluding its Markets unit rose 51% to $16.9 billion on higher interest rates.

    JPMorgan Chase’s total assets under management fell 13% to $2.6 trillion in the face of losses in the equities market and difficult conditions in the bond market.

    Looking ahead, JPMorgan Chase said it expects fourth-quarter net interest income of about $19 billion, ahead of the $18.2 billion analyst estimate.

    Octavio Marenzi, CEO of management consultant company Opimas said the bank’s results were “surprisingly solid” and if you strip away its payments for loan reserves, its profit is basically unchanged.

    “Individual lines of business, such as investment banking and mortgages did predictably badly, but this was more than compensated for by strength in other areas of lending and in trading,” Marenzi said.

    Shares of JPMorgan Chase have lost 30.9% in 2022 compared with a 17.3% drop by the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +2.83%

    and a 23.0% loss by the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.60%
    .

    Wells Fargo misses profit target but share rise

    Wells Fargo & Co. shares advanced 2% in Friday’s premarket after the bank posted net income of $3.528 billion, or 85 cents a share, for the quarter to end September, down from $5.122 billion, or $1.17 a share, in the year-earlier quarter.

    The megabank fell short of the earnings-per-share target of $1.09 a share.

    Wells Fargo’s revenue rose to $19.505 billion from $18.834 billion a year ago, ahead of the $18.775 billion FactSet consensus.

    Chief Executive Charlie Scharf said performance was “significantly impacted” by $2 billion, or 45 cents a share, in operating losses “related to litigation, customer remediation, and regulatory matters primarily related to a variety of historical matters.”

    However, the bank is seeing historically low delinquencies and high payment rates, and the “timing of deterioration in those measures due to high inflation remains unclear. “

    The bank set aside $784 million in provisions for loan losses, after reducing them by $1.395 billion a year ago.

    Net interest income rose 36%, while noninterest income fell 25%, as mortgage banking income declined.

    Citi analyst Keith Horowitz said Wells Fargo turned in a “good” quarter overall, although larger-than-expected one-time charges and a reserve build reduced profits. But Wells Fargo also raised its outlook for net interest income “and we still see upside to 2023 consensus,” Horowitz said.

    Shares of Wells Fargo have declined 12% in the year to date.

    Morgan Stanley shares fall on results

    Morgan Stanley fell 2.6% in premarket trades after the investment bank missed Wall Street’s targets for earnings and revenue amid a drop in deal activity.

    Morgan Stanley said its third-quarter net income fell to $2.49 billion, or $1.47 per share, from net income of $3.7 billion, or $1.98 per share in the year-ago quarter.

    Third-quarter revenue dropped to $12.99 billion from $14.75 billion.

    Wall Street analysts were looking for earnings of $1.52 a share and revenue of $13.29 billion, according to FactSet data.

    “Firm performance was resilient and balanced in an uncertain and difficult environment, delivering a 15% return on tangible common equity,” said CEO James Gorman. “Wealth Management added an additional $65 billion in net new assets and produced a pre-tax margin of 28%, excluding integration-related expenses, demonstrating scale and stability despite declining asset values.”

    Morgan Stanley shares have lost 19.2% in 2022.

    Citi beats targets but shares lose ground

    Citigroup shares fell 1.3% in premarket trades Friday after the bank posted stronger-than-expected profit, but revenue fell 1% after breaking out divestiture-related impacts, as growth in net interest income was more than offset by lower non-interest revenue.

    Citi said its third-quarter net income dropped to $3.5 billion, or $1.63 per share, from $4.6 billion, or $2.15 a share, in the year-ago quarter.

    Excluding divestiture-related impacts, earnings were $1.50 a share.

    Total revenue increased to $18.5 billion from $17.4 billion.

    Analysts were looking for earnings of $1.42 a share and revenue of $18.26 billion for Citigroup, according to a FactSet survey.

    Citi said it continues to shrink its operations in Russia, and expects to end nearly all of the institutional banking services offered in the country next quarter. “To be clear, our intention is to wind down our presence in this country,” Chief Executive Jane Fraser said.

    Shares of Citigroup have dropped 28.9% in 2022.

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  • WSJ News Exclusive | Peloton Co-Founder John Foley Faced Repeated Margin Calls From Goldman Sachs as Stock Slumped

    WSJ News Exclusive | Peloton Co-Founder John Foley Faced Repeated Margin Calls From Goldman Sachs as Stock Slumped

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    John Foley, the co-founder and former chief executive of Peloton Interactive faced repeated margin calls on money he borrowed against his Peloton holdings before he left the fitness company’s board last month, according to people familiar with the situation.

    As Peloton’s shares slumped over the past year, Goldman Sachs Group asked Mr. Foley several times to provide fresh funds or additional collateral for personal loans the bank had extended to him, the people said. The company’s share price has fallen nearly 95% from its $160 peak in December 2020.

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  • Dow books 630-point drop after strong jobs data rattles investors, but stocks cement weekly gains

    Dow books 630-point drop after strong jobs data rattles investors, but stocks cement weekly gains

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    U.S. stocks finished sharply lower Friday, but still booked their best weekly gains in a month, after September jobs data showed an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate that’s anticipated to reinforce the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep tightening monetary policy.

    Investors also weighed a profit warning at a leading microchip maker ahead of next week’s increase in quarterly earnings results.

    What happened
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      -2.11%

      fell 630.15 points, or 2.1%, ending at 29,296.79, but off the session low of 29,142.66.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      -2.80%

      dropped 104.86 points, or 2.8%, closing at 3,639.66.

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      -3.80%

      shed 420.91 points, or 3.8%, to finish at 10,652.40.

    Stocks posted back-to-back losses, trimming weekly gains, but recorded their best weekly gains since Sept. 9, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Read: Will the stock market be open on Columbus Day?

    What drove markets

    Stocks recorded sharp losses Friday after the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate declined to 3.5% from an August reading of 3.7%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%.

    Still, a powerful rally earlier in the week boosted all three major stock indexes to weekly gains, a departure from three straight weekly losses, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    “It’s manic. We are all on edge,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist at Capitol Securities Management, of the sharp market swings.

    “Any piece of good news is a cause for an explosive rally,” Engelke said by phone. On the flip side, he pegged technology-based trading “in an illiquid and emotional market” as exacerbating Friday’s selloff.

    “It’s a reflection that people have re-entered the mind-set that the Fed is going to be raising rates at a rapid clip, probably for longer than what they might have suspected at the start of the week,” said Robert Pavlik, a senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management, by phone.

    Pavlik expects the Fed to keep tightening financial conditions to try to head off inflation. “But once we turn the corner, and the economy slows down, the Fed probably will be more aggressive in cutting rates on the way down.”

    In addition, the Fed has been “draining liquidity from the system at a remarkable pace,” wrote Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, in a Friday client note, while pointing to an astounding $1.3 trillion decline in the central bank’s balance sheet since the December 2021 peak.

    Pavlik at Dakota Wealth said he anticipates the Fed will start slowing interest rate hikes by mid-next year, which likely means continued pressure for the stock market, particularly with a backdrop of big oil-price
    CL00,
    +5.37%

    gains this week after global crude producers voted to cut monthly production and with the U.S. dollar’s
    DXY,
    +0.44%

    surge this year against a basket of rival currencies.

    U.S. crude oil prices climbed for a fifth day in a row on Friday to settle at $92.64 a barrel, while booking at 16.5% weekly gain.

    New York Fed President John Williams said Friday that benchmark interest rates likely need to hit 4.5% over time. The Fed’s policy rate now sits in a 3%-3.25% range, up from a zero-0.25% range a year ago.

    The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.889%

    climbed to 3.883% Friday, as the key metric used to gauge the affordability of credit for businesses, household and the economy posted 10 straight weeks of gains, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Read: Bond markets facing historic losses grow anxious of Fed that ‘isn’t blinking yet’

    Investors continued to hope for relief on the inflation front and will be monitoring next week’s release of the September consumer-price index, as well as corporate earnings season as it picks up.

    Companies in focus
    • Twitter Inc.
      TWTR,
      -0.43%

      shares fell 0.4% Friday after a judge delayed a looming trial between the company and Elon Musk to allow the Tesla Inc.
      TSLA,
      -6.32%

      CEO more time to close his $44 billion acquisition of the social media platform.

    • Besides the jobs report, investors weighed a profit warning from microchip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, which said the PC market weakened significantly during the quarter. AMD shares fell 13.9%, and rivals including Nvidia Corp. NVDA and Intel Corp. INTC also closed lower.

    • U.S. cannabis stocks were choppy Friday, with the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF
      MSOS,
      -2.80%

      ending lower, following steep gains earlier in the week after President Joe Biden said the U.S. would consider de-scheduling cannabis from its current position as a Schedule 1 narcotic under federal law.

    —Steven Goldstein contributed reporting to this article

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