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  • What markets are watching after digesting the US jobs data | CNN Business

    What markets are watching after digesting the US jobs data | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    In an unusual coincidence, the US jobs report was released on a holiday Friday — meaning stock markets were closed when the closely-watched economic data came out.

    It was the first monthly payroll report since Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed. It also marked a full year of jobs data since the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates in March 2022.

    While inflation has come down and other economic data point to a cooling economy, the labor market has remained remarkably resilient.

    Investors have had a long weekend to chew over the details of the report and will likely skip the typical gut-reaction to headline numbers.

    What happened: The US economy added 236,000 jobs in March, showing that hiring remained robust though the pace was slower than in previous months. The unemployment rate currently stands at 3.5%.

    Wages increased by 0.3% on the month and 4.2% from a year ago. The three-month wage growth average has dropped to 3.8%. That’s moving closer to what Fed policymakers “believe to be in line with stable wage and inflation expectations,” wrote Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in a note.

    “That wage data tends to suggest that the risk of a wage price spiral is easing and that will create space in the near term for the Federal Reserve to engage in a strategic pause in its efforts to restore price stability,” he added.

    The March jobs report was the last before the Fed’s next policy meeting and announcement in early May. The labor market is cooling but not rapidly or significantly, and further rate hikes can’t be ruled out.

    At the same time Wall Street is beginning to see bad news as bad news. A slowing economy could mean a recession is forthcoming.

    Markets are still largely expecting the Fed to raise rates by another quarter point. So how will they react to Friday’s report?

    Before the Bell spoke with Michael Arone, State Street Global Advisors chief investment strategist, to find out.

    This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

    Before the Bell: How do you expect markets to react to this report on Monday?

    Michael Arone: I think that this has been a nice counterbalance to the weaker labor data earlier last week and all the recession fears. This data suggests that the economy is still in pretty good shape, 10-year Treasury yields increased on Friday indicating there’s less fear about an imminent recession.

    There’s this delicate balance between slower job growth and a weaker labor market without economic devastation. I think this report helps that.

    As it relates to the stock market, I would expect the cyclical sectors to do well — your industrials, your materials, your energy companies. If interest rates are rising, that’s going to weigh on growth stocks — technology and communication services sectors, for example. Less recession fears will mean investors won’t be as defensively positioned in classic staples like healthcare and utilities.

    Could this lead to a reverse in the current trend where tech companies are bolstering markets?

    Yes, exactly. It’s difficult to make too much out of any singular data point, but I think this report will hopefully lead to broader participation in the stock market. If those recession fears begin to abate somewhat, and investors recognize that recession isn’t imminent, there will be more investment.

    What else are investors looking at in this report?

    We’ve seen weakness in the interest rate sensitive parts of the market — areas that are typically the first to weaken as the economy slows down. So things like manufacturing, things like construction. That’s where the weakness in this jobs report is. And the services areas continue to remain strong. That’s where the shortage of qualified skilled workers remains. I think that you’re seeing continued job strength in those areas.

    What does this mean for this week’s inflation reports? It seems like the jobs report just pushed the tension forward.

    it did. I expect that inflation figures will continue to decelerate — or grow at a slower rate. But I do think that the sticky part of inflation continues to be on the wage front. And so I think, if anything, this helps alleviate some of those inflation pressures, but we’ll see how it flows through into the CPI report next week. And also the PPI report.

    Is the Federal Reserve addressing real structural changes to the labor market?

    The Fed was confused in February 2020 when we were in full employment and there was no inflation. They’re equally confused today, after raising rates from zero to 5%, that we haven’t had more job losses.

    I’m not sure why, but from my perspective, the Fed hasn’t taken into consideration the structural changes in the labor force, and they’re still confused by it. I think the risk here is that they’ll continue to focus on raising rates to stabilize prices, perhaps underestimating the kind of structural changes in the labor economy that haven’t resulted in the type of weakness that they’ve been anticipating. I think that’s a risk for the economy and markets.

    A few weeks ago, Before the Bell wrote about big problems brewing in the $20 trillion commercial real estate industry.

    After decades of thriving growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. Office and retail property valuations have been falling since the pandemic brought about lower occupancy rates and changes in where people work and how they shop. The Fed’s efforts to fight inflation by raising interest rates have also hurt the credit-dependent industry.

    Recent banking stress will likely add to those woes. Lending to commercial real estate developers and managers largely comes from small and mid-sized banks, where the pressure on liquidity has been most severe. About 80% of all bank loans for commercial properties come from regional banks, according to Goldman Sachs economists.

    Since then, things have gotten worse, CNN’s Julia Horowitz reports.

    In a worst-case scenario, anxiety about bank lending to commercial real estate could spiral, prompting customers to yank their deposits. A bank run is what toppled Silicon Valley Bank last month, roiling financial markets and raising fears of a recession.

    “We’re watching it pretty closely,” said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, a wealth manager. While he doesn’t expect office loans to become a problem for all banks, “one or two” institutions could find themselves “caught offside.”

    Signs of strain are increasing. The proportion of commercial office mortgages where borrowers are behind with payments is rising, according to Trepp, which provides data on commercial real estate.

    High-profile defaults are making headlines. Earlier this year, a landlord owned by asset manager PIMCO defaulted on nearly $2 billion in debt for seven office buildings in San Francisco, New York City, Boston and Jersey City.

    Dig into Julia’s story here.

    Tech stocks led market losses in 2022, but seemed to rebound quickly at the start of this year. So as we enter earnings season, what should we expect from Big Tech?

    Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, says that he has high hopes.

    “Tech stocks have held up very well so far in 2023 and comfortably outpaced the overall market as we believe the tech sector has become the new ‘safety trade’ in this overall uncertain market,” he wrote in a note on Sunday evening.

    Even the recent spate of layoffs in Big Tech has upside, he wrote.

    “Significant cost cutting underway in the Valley led by Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and others, conservative guidance already given in the January earnings season ‘rip the band- aid off moment’, and tech fundamentals that are holding up in a shaky macro [environment] are setting up for a green light for tech stocks.”

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  • Wall Street says bad news is no longer good news. Here’s why | CNN Business

    Wall Street says bad news is no longer good news. Here’s why | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    There’s been a seismic shift in investor perspective: Bad news is no longer good news.

    For the past year, Wall Street has hoped for cool monthly economic data that would encourage the Federal Reserve to halt its aggressive pace of interest rate hikes to tame inflation.

    But at its March meeting — just days after a series of bank failures raised concerns about the economy’s stability — the central bank signaled that it plans to pause raising rates sometime this year. With an end to interest rate hikes in sight, investors have stopped attempting to guess the Fed’s next move and have turned instead to the health of the economy.

    This means that, whereas softening economic data used to signal good news — that the Fed could potentially stop raising rates — now, cooling economic prints simply suggest the economy is weakening. That makes investors worried that the slowing economy could fall into a recession.

    What happened last week? Markets teetered after a slew of economic reports signaled that the red-hot labor market is finally cooling (more on that later), flashing warning signals across Wall Street.

    Investors accordingly shed high-growth, large-cap stocks that have surged recently to rush into defensive stocks in industries like health care and consumer staples.

    While tech stocks recovered somewhat by the end of the short trading week — markets were closed in observance of Good Friday — the Nasdaq Composite still slid 1.1%. The broad-based S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6%.

    What does this mean for markets? Now that Wall Street is in “bad news is bad news and good news is good news” mode, it will be looking for signs that the economy remains resilient.

    What hasn’t changed is that investors still want to see cooling inflation data. While the central bank has signaled that it will pause hiking rates this year, its actions so far have only somewhat stabilized prices. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 5% for the 12 months ended in February — far above its 2% inflation target.

    Moreover, Wall Street might be overly optimistic about how the Fed will act going forward: Some investors expect the central bank to cut rates several times this year, even though the central bank indicated last month that it does not intend to lower rates in 2023.

    It’s unclear how markets will react if the Fed doesn’t cut rates this year. But there likely won’t be a notable rally unless the central bank pivots or at least indicates that it plans to soon, said George Cipolloni, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management.

    Commentary that’s hawkish or reveals inflation worries could hurt markets, he adds. “It keeps that boiling point and that temperature a little high.”

    What comes next? The Fed holds its next meeting in early May. Before then, it will have to parse through several economic reports to get a sense of how the economy is doing, and what it will be able to handle. Markets currently expect the Fed to raise interest rates by a quarter point, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    The labor market appears to be cooling somewhat, at least according to the slew of data released last week. But it’s still far too early to assume that the job market has lost its strength.

    President Joe Biden said in a statement Friday that the March data is “a good jobs report for hard-working Americans.”

    The March jobs report revealed that US employers added a lower-than-expected 236,000 jobs last month. Economists expected a net gain of 239,000 jobs for the month, according to Refinitiv.

    The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s below expectations of holding steady at 3.6%.

    The jobs report was also the first one in 12 months that came in below expectations.

    But that doesn’t mean that the job market isn’t strong anymore.

    “The labor market is showing signs of cooling off, but it remains very tight,” Bank of America researchers wrote in a note Friday.

    Still, other data released last week help make the case that cracks are finally starting to form in the labor market. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February revealed last week that the number of available jobs in the United States tumbled to its lowest level since May 2021. ADP’s private-sector payroll report fell far short of expectations.

    What this means for the Fed is that the cooldown in the latest jobs report likely won’t be enough for the central bank to pause rates at its next meeting.

    “The Fed will more than likely raise rates in May as the labor market continues to defy the cumulative effects of the rate hikes that began over a year ago,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.

    Monday: Wholesale inventories.

    Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Earnings from CarMax (KMX), Albertsons (ACI) and First Republic Bank (FRC).

    Wednesday: Consumer Price Index and FOMC meeting minutes.

    Thursday: OPEC monthly report and Producer Price Index. Earnings from Delta Air Lines (DAL).

    Friday: Retail sales and University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C) and PNC Financial Services (PNC).

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  • House Oversight Committee quietly issues several new subpoenas as part of Biden family probe | CNN Politics

    House Oversight Committee quietly issues several new subpoenas as part of Biden family probe | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    House Oversight Chairman James Comer has quietly issued several subpoenas for documents and bank records as part of the Republican-led investigation into the financial dealings of President Joe Biden’s family, according to an internal memo shared among Democrats on the panel.

    The memo, obtained by CNN, reveals new details about the subpoenas issued by Comer as part of the ongoing probe, which has stoked the ire of Democratic members who have accused the Kentucky Republican of covertly investigating business dealings by the president’s son, Hunter Biden.

    “This memorandum serves to ensure that Committee Democrats have access to all relevant information, including the six document subpoenas issued to date,” it says.

    The memo comes a day after the committee’s top Democrat, Maryland Rep. Jamie Raskin, criticized committee Republicans for “shielding information” related to the panel’s investigations. House rules mandate that committee materials are shared between the majority and minority.

    “Committee Republicans’ decision to conduct this probe behind a veil of secrecy runs counter to the Committee’s traditional commitment to transparency and raises serious questions about the integrity of the investigation,” Democrats wrote in the memo.

    According to the Democrats’ memo, subpoenas have been sent to: Bank of America, Cathay Bank, JPMorgan Chase, HSBC USA N.A and Mervyn Yan, a former business associate of Hunter Biden. In most cases the subpoenas to the banks span 14 years and relate to six individuals and 10 different entities, House Democrats say. The business entities covered by the subpoenas include several with ties to China and the energy sector, according to those listed in the memo.

    The subpoena to HSBC was initially sent, and later reissued, after the bank requested an updated cover page, according to a person familiar with the matter. A spokesperson for HSBC declined to comment.

    CNN has reached out to JP Morgan Chase & Co., and an email address associated with Mervyn Yan for comment.

    “Cathay Bank, a NASDAQ-listed, U.S. financial institution for over 60 years, has cooperated with the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability’s request for information,” said a bank spokesperson. “The bank intends to continue to cooperate with the committee.”

    CNN first reported on Comer’s subpoena for Bank of America in March to compel the bank to turn over records relating to three of Hunter Biden’s business associates.

    The six subpoenas listed do not include “friendly” subpoenas Comer has issued to some witnesses, including former Twitter employees, who have testified before the committee.

    “Despite their vast efforts, Committee Republicans have failed to identify any evidence connecting President Biden to or implicating him in the foreign transactions under investigation,” according to the memo from Democrats.

    Comer slammed the Democrats’ memo in a statement on Friday. “Ranking Member Raskin has again disclosed Committee’s subpoenas in a cheap attempt to thwart cooperation from other witnesses,” Comer said. “No one should be fooled by Ranking Member Raskin’s games. We have the bank records, and the facts are not good for the Biden family.”

    Democrats also laid out what they called “inconsistencies” among the investigations that Comer and the panel’s Republican members are interested in pursuing, arguing they are only interested in probing the Biden family, but not do want to investigate similar issues pertaining to former President Donald Trump and his family.

    “To date, Chairman Comer has issued six subpoenas and sent 39 letters in the Biden family investigation alone. Notably, Mr. Comer has failed to issue a single document subpoena in any other Committee investigation this Congress,” Democrats wrote.

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  • The Fed could easily drive Black unemployment much higher than the overall jobless rate | CNN Business

    The Fed could easily drive Black unemployment much higher than the overall jobless rate | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Millions of jobs could be on the chopping block this year, as the Federal Reserve continues its rate-hiking campaign to tame inflation. But the effects of that action likely won’t reverberate evenly across the economy.

    The Fed has seen some success: Inflation has cooled for eighth consecutive months, according to the February Consumer Price Index. The Producer Price Index shows a dramatic drop in wholesale prices in February. And the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, has also started to moderate.

    But the job market has proved to be a formidable force, humming steadily in the face of climbing rates meant to slow its growth. After adding more than half a million jobs in January, the US economy then added 311,000 jobs in February, with an unemployment rate of 3.6% — just above a half-century low — according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    However, the jobless rate isn’t expected to be that low for long.

    At its most recent policy-making meeting, the Fed released projections for the year ahead that showed unemployment could jump to 4.5%, representing another 1.5 million job losses, by the end of the year.

    While that’s a small improvement from the central bank’s previous 4.6% jobless rate estimate, economists say it’s possible the unemployment rate could rise above the Fed’s expectations. Moreover, they say that historically disadvantaged groups could be disproportionately affected by the central bank’s stringent monetary policy.

    While some groups often sidelined in the job market have seen benefits from this hot job market — women have seen a faster pace of job gains than men in recent months, for example — others, including Black women and Latino men, have seen slower recoveries in jobless rates since the onset of the Covid pandemic.

    Recession fears gained traction last month when the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank sent markets wobbling, raising concerns about the economy’s ability to handle more stress. Goldman Sachs revised its estimate of the United States entering a recession over the next 12 months to a 35% chance, up from its estimate of a 25% chance before the banking sector turmoil.

    That’s of particular concern to certain demographic groups: Jobless rates for Black and Hispanic Americans often increase by more than those of their White counterparts during recessions, said Rakesh Kochhar, a senior researcher focusing on demographics and social trends at the Pew Research Center.

    History makes that discrepancy clear.

    A Pew Research Center report comparing two recessions in recent decades shows how Black and Hispanic Americans experience disproportionate effects on their jobless rates during periods of economic downturn. From the second quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009, during the Great Recession, the unemployment rate rose 6.5 percentage points for Black Americans. The Hispanic unemployment rate climbed 6.3 percentage points. For White workers, it increased 4 percentage points.

    And from the first quarter of 1990 to the first quarter of 1991, the unemployment rate climbed 1.4 percentage points for Black Americans and 2.1 percentage points for Hispanic Americans. The White unemployment rate rose 1.3 percentage points.

    Economists say it’s hard to guess the trajectory of the unemployment rate this year, noting it could very well exceed the Fed’s estimate.

    “There’s just tons of momentum, and once you slow the economy enough to get the unemployment rate moving up, it’s very hard to sort of turn that cruise ship back around,” said Josh Bivens, research director and chief economist at the Economic Policy Institute.

    As such, the Fed’s tightening efforts could easily drive the Black unemployment rate much higher than the overall jobless rate, said William Spriggs, an economics professor at Howard University and chief economist to the AFL-CIO.

    “If the Fed continues to use unemployment as its measure of labor force slack, and thinks they want a 4.5% unemployment rate — to make that happen, the Fed would have to induce net job loss in the labor market,” Spriggs told CNN in an email. “If we go through two months of negative job growth, all bets are off. The Black unemployment rate will easily get to 9% in that scenario.”

    One other likely consequence of growing unemployment is slowing wage growth, Bivens said.

    Like rising unemployment, stunted wage growth tends to hit marginalized groups harder. A 2021 Economic Policy Institute report shows that a 1 percentage point increase in overall unemployment correlates with about 0.5% slower wage growth for White median hourly wages. Wage growth falls by roughly 0.8% for Black median hourly wages.

    “A lot of people have this idea that in a recession, if unemployment rises by a couple of percentage points, as long as you’re not one of those unlucky people to lose the job, you’ve dodged the bullet,” Bivens said. “And that’s not true at all.”

    Still, a robust labor market isn’t a permanent solution to bridging employment disparities, even if the Fed does keep rates lower, says Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project and a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution.

    The job market’s recent strength is unsustainable, she said. The US economy needs about 75,000 net job gains a month to keep stable and is currently adding about 350,000 net job gains a month on average, according to Edelberg.

    “[The Fed is] right to be confident that one of the things that’s going to have to happen to get inflation back down to a normal, stable level is to get job growth to a normal, sustainable level,” Edelberg said. “But if the Fed’s actions resulted in a slower labor market, then inflation stayed high — that would be a disaster.”

    The March jobs report from the Department of Labor, due to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m., is expected to show the US economy gained 240,000 positions last month. ADP’s private-sector payroll report, generally seen by investors as a proxy for the trajectory of Friday’s number, fell short of expectations, with just 145,000 jobs added. Economists had expected private hiring would rise by 200,000 positions last month.

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  • What the OPEC cuts mean for Putin and Russia | CNN Business

    What the OPEC cuts mean for Putin and Russia | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Some of the world’s largest oil exporters shocked markets over the weekend by announcing that they would cut oil production by more than 1.6 million barrels a day.

    OPEC+, an alliance between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a group of non-OPEC oil-producing countries, including Russia, Mexico, and Kazakhstan, said on Sunday that the cuts would start in May, running through the end of the year. The news sent both Brent crude futures — the global oil benchmark — and WTI — the US benchmark — up about 6% in trading Monday.

    OPEC+ was formed in 2016 to coordinate and regulate oil production and stabilize global oil prices. Its members produce about 40% of the world’s crude oil and have a significant impact on the global economy.

    What it means for Putin: OPEC+’s decision to cut oil production could have big implications for Russia.

    After Russia invaded Ukraine last year, the United States and United Kingdom immediately stopped purchasing oil from the country. The European Union also stopped importing Russian oil that was sent by sea.

    Members of the G7 — an organization of leaders from some of the world’s largest economies: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States — have also imposed a price cap of $60 per barrel on oil exported by Russia, keeping the country’s revenues artificially low. If oil prices continue to rise, some analysts have speculated that the US and other western nations may have to loosen that price cap.

    US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Monday that the changes could lead to reassessing the price cap — though not yet. “Of course, that’s something that, if we’ve decided that it’s appropriate to revisit, could be changed, but I don’t see that that’s appropriate at this time,” she told reporters.

    “I don’t know that this is significant enough to have any impact on the appropriate level of the price cap,” she added.

    Russia also recently announced that it would lower its oil production by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of this year.

    Just last week Putin admitted that western sanctions could deal a blow to Russia’s economy.

    “The illegitimate restrictions imposed on the Russian economy may indeed have a negative impact on it in the medium term,” Putin said in televised remarks Wednesday reported by state news agency TASS.

    Putin said Russia’s economy had been growing since July, thanks in part to stronger ties with “countries of the East and South,” likely referring to China and some African countries.

    Russia, China and Saudi Arabia: The OPEC+ announcement came as a surprise this week. The group had already announced it would cut two million barrels a day in October of 2022 and Saudi Arabia previously said its production quotas would stay the same through the end of the year.

    “The move to reduce supply is fairly odd,” wrote Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING in a note Monday.

    “Oil prices have partly recovered from the turmoil seen in financial markets following developments in the banking sector,” he wrote. “Meanwhile, oil fundamentals are expected to tighten as we move through the year. Prior to these cuts, we were already expecting the oil market to see a fairly sizable deficit over the second half or 2023. Clearly, this will be even larger now.”

    Saudi Arabia stated that the cut is a “precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market,” but Patterson says it will likely “lead to further volatility in the market,” later this year as less available oil will add to inflationary feats.

    Still, the changes signal shifting global alliances with Russia, China and Saudi Arabia around oil prices, said analysts at ClearView Energy Partners. Higher-priced oil could help Russia pay for its war on Ukraine and also boosts revenue in Saudi Arabia.

    The White House, meanwhile, has spoken out against OPEC’s decision. “We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment given market uncertainty – and we’ve made that clear,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Monday.

    – CNN’s Paul LeBlanc and Hanna Ziady contributed to this report

    The crisis triggered by the recent collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank is not over yet and will ripple through the economy for years to come, said JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday.

    In his closely watched annual letter to shareholders, the chief executive of the largest bank in the United States outlined the extensive damage the financial system meltdown had on all banks and urged lawmakers to think carefully before responding with regulatory policy.

    “These failures were not good for banks of any size,” wrote Dimon, responding to reports that large financial institution benefited greatly from the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank as wary customers sought safety by moving billions of dollars worth of money to big banks.

    In a note last month, Wells Fargo banking analyst Mike Mayo wrote “Goliath is winning.” JPMorgan in particular, he said, was benefiting from more deposits “in these less certain times.”

    “Any crisis that damages Americans’ trust in their banks damages all banks – a fact that was known even before this crisis,” said Dimon. “While it is true that this bank crisis ‘benefited’ larger banks due to the inflow of deposits they received from smaller institutions, the notion that this meltdown was good for them in any way is absurd.”

    The failures of SVB and Signature Bank, he argued, had little to do with banks bypassing regulations and that SVB’s high Interest rate exposure and large amount of uninsured deposits were already well-known to both regulators and to the marketplace at large.

    Current regulations, Dimon argued, could actually lull banks into complacency without actually addressing real system-wide banking issues. Abiding by these regulations, he wrote, has just “become an enormous, mind-numbingly complex task about crossing t’s and dotting i’s.”

    And while regulatory change will be a likely outcome of the recent banking crisis, Dimon argued that, “it is extremely important that we avoid knee-jerk, whack-a-mole or politically motivated responses that often result in achieving the opposite of what people intended.” Regulations, he said, are often put in place in one part of the framework but have adverse effects on other areas and just make things more complicated.

    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has said it will propose new rule changes in May, while the Federal Reserve is currently conducting an internal review to assess what changes should be made. Lawmakers in Congress, like Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, have suggested that new legislation meant to regulate banks is in the works.

    But, wrote Dimon, “the debate should not always be about more or less regulation but about what mix of regulations will keep America’s banking system the best in the world.”

    Dimon’s letter to shareholders touched on a number of pressing issues, including climate change. “The window for action to avert the costliest impacts of global climate change is closing,” he wrote, expressing his frustration with slow growth in clean energy technology investments.

    “Permitting reforms are desperately needed to allow investment to be done in any kind of timely way,” he wrote.

    One way to do that? “We may even need to evoke eminent domain,” he suggested. “We simply are not getting the adequate investments fast enough for grid, solar, wind and pipeline initiatives.”

    Eminent domain is the government’s power to take private property for public use, so long as fair compensation is provided to the property owner.

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  • JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warns banking crisis will be felt for ‘years to come’ | CNN Business

    JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warns banking crisis will be felt for ‘years to come’ | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    The banking crisis triggered by the recent collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank is not over yet and will ripple through the economy for years to come, said JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday.

    In his closely watched annual letter to shareholders, the chief executive of America’s largest bank outlined the extensive damage the financial system meltdown had on all banks — large and small — and urged lawmakers to think carefully before responding with increased regulation.

    “These failures were not good for banks of any size,” wrote Dimon, responding to reports that large financial institution benefited greatly from the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank as wary customers sought safety by moving billions of dollars worth of money to big banks.

    In a note last month, Wells Fargo banking analyst Mike Mayo wrote “Goliath is winning.” JPMorgan in particular, he said, was benefiting from more deposits “in these less certain times.”

    “Any crisis that damages Americans’ trust in their banks damages all banks — a fact that was known even before this crisis,” he wrote. “While it is true that this bank crisis ‘benefited’ larger banks due to the inflow of deposits they received from smaller institutions, the notion that this meltdown was good for them in any way is absurd.”

    The failures of SVB and Signature Bank, he argued, had little to do with banks bypassing regulations. He said that SVB’s high Interest rate exposure and large amount of uninsured deposits were already well-known to both regulators and to the marketplace at large.

    Current regulations, he argued, could actually lull banks into complacency without actually addressing real system-wide banking issues. Abiding by these regulations, he wrote, has just “become an enormous, mind-numbingly complex task about crossing t’s and dotting i’s.”

    And while regulatory change will almost certainly follow the recent banking crisis, Dimon argued that, “it is extremely important that we avoid knee-jerk, whack-a-mole or politically motivated responses that often result in achieving the opposite of what people intended.” Regulations, he said, are often put in place in one part of the framework but have adverse effects on other areas and just make things more complicated.

    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has said it will propose new rule changes in May, while the Federal Reserve is currently conducting an internal review to assess what changes should be made. Lawmakers in Congress, including Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, have suggested that new legislation meant to regulate banks is in the works.

    But, wrote Dimon, “the debate should not always be about more or less regulation but about what mix of regulations will keep America’s banking system the best in the world.”

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  • China Renaissance suspends trading, delays results after founder’s disappearance | CNN Business

    China Renaissance suspends trading, delays results after founder’s disappearance | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    China Renaissance, a top dealmaker in the country’s tech industry, said it would suspend trading of its shares and delay the release of its annual results because it still can’t get in touch with its founder.

    Bao Fan, 52, started the boutique investment bank in 2005 and has been unreachable since the middle of February, according to the company. Shares in China Renaissance have plunged since Bao went missing, at one point dropping as much as 50%.

    China Renaissance said in late February that it had learned Bao was “cooperating in an investigation” being carried out by certain authorities in the country. It gave no other details.

    Chinese media have reported Bao might be assisting in an investigation related to a former executive at China Renaissance.

    In a filing on Sunday, China Renaissance said auditors couldn’t complete their work or sign off on their report because of Bao’s absence. The board was also unable to give an estimate about when it would be able to approve its audited results for 2022 or dispatch its annual report by an April 30 deadline as required by Hong Kong’s listing rules.

    Trading in the company’s shares was suspended from Monday as a result.

    Bao is known as a veteran dealmaker who works closely with top technology companies in China. He helped broker the 2015 merger between two of the country’s leading food delivery services, Meituan and Dianping. Today, the combined company’s “super app” platform is ubiquitous in China.

    His team has also invested in US-listed Chinese electric vehicle makers Nio

    (NIO)     and Li Auto and helped Chinese internet giants Baidu

    (BIDU)     and JD.com

    (JD)     complete their secondary listings in Hong Kong.

    Over the weekend, China’s top anti-graft watchdog launched an investigation into Liu Liange, former party secretary and chairman of Bank of China, according to a statement by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the State Supervision Commission. The bank is state-owned and one of the country’s four biggest lenders.

    Liu is suspected of “serious violations of discipline and law,” the statement said. He is among the most senior financial executives targeted in a broader financial crackdown by President Xi Jinping.

    In January, Wang Bin, former party chief and chairman of China Life Insurance, was charged by national-level prosecutors with taking bribes and hiding overseas savings.

    — Michelle Toh contributed reporting.

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  • Oil prices surge after OPEC+ producers announce surprise cuts | CNN Business

    Oil prices surge after OPEC+ producers announce surprise cuts | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong/Atlanta
    CNN
     — 

    Oil prices spiked during Asian trade Monday after OPEC+ producers said they would cut production in a surprise move.

    Brent crude, the global benchmark, jumped 4.8% to $83.73 a barrel, while WTI, the US benchmark, rose 4.9% to $79.36.

    Rising oil prices could mean inflation remains higher for longer, adding pressure to a hot-button issue for consumers around the world.

    On Sunday, Saudi Arabia announced that it would start “a voluntary reduction” in its production of crude oil, alongside other members or allies of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

    The cuts will start in May and last through the end of the year, an official with the Saudi Ministry of Energy was quoted as saying by Saudi state-run news agency SPA.

    The reductions are on top of those announced by OPEC+ in October, according to SPA.

    That month, oil producers had agreed to slash output by 2 million barrels a day, the largest cut since the start of the pandemic and equivalent to about 2% of global oil demand.

    Saudi Arabia now says it will cut oil production by another half a million barrels a day.

    Meanwhile, Iraq will slash production by 200,000 barrels per day, and the United Arab Emirates will decrease output by 144,000 barrels per day.

    Kuwait, Algeria and Oman will also lower production by 128,000, 48,000 and 40,000 barrels per day, respectively.

    In a Sunday note, Goldman Sachs analysts said the move was unexpected but “consistent with the new OPEC+ doctrine to act pre-emptively because they can without significant losses in market share.”

    The collective output cut by the nine members of OPEC+ totals 1.66 million barrels per day, said the analysts, who hiked their price forecast for Brent this year to $95 per barrel.

    Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry described its latest reduction as a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil markets, according to SPA.

    The White House pushed back on that notion — as well as the latest cuts by OPEC+.

    “We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment given market uncertainty — and we’ve made that clear,” a spokesperson for the National Security Council said. “We’re focused on prices for American consumers, not barrels.”

    In October, OPEC+’s decision to cut production had already rankled the White House.

    US President Joe Biden pledged at the time that Saudi Arabia would suffer “consequences.” But so far, his administration appears to have back off on its vows to punish the Middle East kingdom.

    Russia, a member of OPEC+, also said Sunday that it would extend a voluntary reduction of 500,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023. The move was announced by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, as cited by state-run news agency TASS.

    That decision was less surprising. Goldman analysts said they had forecast the cut would last into the second half of the year.

    — CNN’s Hanna Ziady and Arlette Saenz contributed to this report.

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  • Swiss prosecutor probes Credit Suisse takeover | CNN Business

    Swiss prosecutor probes Credit Suisse takeover | CNN Business

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    Switzerland’s Federal Prosecutor has opened an investigation into the state-backed takeover of Credit Suisse

    (AMJL)     by UBS Group, the office of the attorney general said Sunday.

    The prosecutor, based in the Swiss capital Bern, is looking into potential breaches of the country’s criminal law by government officials, regulators and executives at the two banks, which agreed on an emergency merger last month to avoid a meltdown in the country’s financial system.

    There were “numerous aspects of events around Credit Suisse” that warranted investigation and which needed to be analyzed to “identify any criminal offenses that could fall within the competence of the [prosecutor],” it said in a statement.

    “The Office of the Attorney General wants to proactively fulfill its mandate and responsibility to contribute to a clean Swiss financial center and has set up a monitoring system so that it can take action immediately on any issues that fall within its area of responsibility,” it added.

    It gave no indication of any specific aspects of the merger agreement it might look into or how long the investigation might last.

    Both UBS and Credit Suisse declined to comment.

    “It’s astonishing that the prosecutor would comment,” said Mark Pieth, professor emeritus of the University of Basel, where he has taught criminal law and criminology. But the rescue “is so out of the ordinary that they had to say something.”

    Pieth said the prosecutor could be probing breaches of secrecy provisions by officials, or the trading on inside information, adding that the wiping out of some bondholders as planned under the deal is also problematic.

    In the deal announced March 19 and orchestrated by the Swiss government, the central bank and market regulator, UBS would acquire rival Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.3 billion). The bank is trying to close the deal by as soon as the end of April, sources have told Reuters.

    The Swiss public and politicians have voiced concerns about the level of state support, with nearly 260 billion Swiss francs in liquidity and guarantees offered by the government and Swiss National Bank.

    A poll of Swiss economists found that nearly half think the takeover of Credit Suisse was not the best solution. They warned that the situation had dented Switzerland’s reputation as a banking center.

    The takeover, which was also designed to help secure financial stability globally during a period of turmoil, has sparked concern among critics about the size of the merged bank, with $1.6 trillion in assets and more than 120,000 staff worldwide.

    Up to 30% of staff could lose their jobs due to the takeover, according to an unnamed senior UBS manager quoted in Swiss media.

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  • Who will end up paying for the banking crisis: You | CNN Business

    Who will end up paying for the banking crisis: You | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    It cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation about $23 billion to clean up the mess that Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank left in the wake of their collapses earlier this month.

    Now, as the dust clears and the US banking system steadies, the FDIC needs to figure out where to send its invoice. While regional and mid-sized banks are behind the recent turmoil, it appears that large banks may be footing the bill.

    Ultimately, that means higher fees for bank customers and lower rates on their savings accounts.

    What’s happening: The FDIC maintains a $128 billion deposit insurance fund to insure bank deposits and protect depositors. That fund is typically supplied by quarterly payments from insured banks in the United States. But when a big, expensive event happens — like the FDIC making uninsured customers whole at Silicon Valley Bank — the agency is able to assess a special charge on the banking industry to recover the cost.

    The law also gives the FDIC the authority to decide which banks shoulder the brunt of that assessment fee. FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg said this week that he plans to make the details of the latest assessment public in May. He has also hinted that he would protect community banks from having to shell out too much money.

    The fees that the FDIC assesses on banks tend to vary. Historically, they were fixed, but 2010’s Dodd-Frank act required that the agency needed to consider the size of a bank when setting rates. It also takes into consideration the “economic conditions, the effects on the industry, and such other factors as the FDIC deems appropriate and relevant,” according to Gruenberg.

    On Tuesday and Wednesday, members of the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee grilled Gruenberg about his plans to charge banks for the damage done by SVB and others, and repeatedly implored him to leave small banks alone.

    Gruenberg appeared receptive.

    “Will you commit to using your authority…to establish separate risk-based assessment systems for large and small members of the Deposit Insurance Fund so that these well-managed banks don’t have to bail out Silicon Valley Bank?” asked the US Rep. Andy Barr, a Republican who represents of Kentucky’s 6th district.

    “I’m certainly willing to consider that,” replied Gruenberg.

    “if smaller community banks in Texas will be left responsible for bailing out the failed banks in California and New York?” asked US Rep. Roger Williams, a Republican who represents Texas’ 25th district.

    “Let me just say, without forecasting what our board is going to vote, we’re going to be keenly sensitive to the impact on community banks,” replied Gruenberg.

    Representatives Frank Lucas, John Rose, Ayanna Pressley, Dan Meuser, Nikema Williams, Zach Nunn and Andy Ogles all asked similar questions and received similar responses. As did US Sens. Sherrod Brown and Cynthia Lummis.

    “I don’t doubt he’s still fielding a lot of phone calls,” from politicians pressuring him to place the burden on large banks, former FDIC chairman Bill Isaac told CNN.

    Smaller banks are saying that they’re unable to pick up this tab and didn’t have anything to do with the failure of “these two wild and crazy banks,” said Isaac. “They’re arguing to put the assessment on larger banks and as I understand it, the FDIC is thinking seriously about it,” he added.

    A spokesperson from the FDIC told CNN that the agency “will issue in May 2023 a proposed rulemaking for the special assessment for public comment.” In regard to Greunberg’s testimony they added that “when the boss says something, we defer to the boss.”

    Big banks: “We need to think hard about liquidity risk and concentrations of uninsured deposits and how that’s evaluated in terms of deposit insurance assessments,” said Gruenberg to the Senate Banking Committee, indicating that smaller banks that are operating carefully could be asked to bear less of the assessment.

    A larger assessment on big banks would add to what will already be a multi-billion dollar payment from the nation’s largest banks like JPMorgan Chase

    (JPM)    , Citigroup

    (C)    , Bank of America

    (BAC)     and Wells Fargo

    (WFC)    .

    The argument is that the largest US banks will be able to shoulder extra payments without collapsing under it. Those large banks also benefited greatly from the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank as wary customers sought safety by moving billions of dollars worth of money to big banks. 

    Passing it on: Regardless of who’s charged, the fees will eventually get passed on to bank customers in the end, said Isaac. “It’s going to be passed on to all customers. I have no doubts that banks will make up for these extra costs in their pricing — higher fees for services, higher prices for loans and less compensation for deposits.”

    It’s hard out there for a Wall Street banker. Or harder than it was.

    The average annual Wall Street bonus fell to $176,700 last year, a 26% drop from the previous year’s average of $240,400, according to estimates released Thursday by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli.

    While that’s a big decrease, the 2022 bonus figure is still more than twice the median annual income for US households, reports CNN’s Jeanne Sahadi.

    All in, Wall Street firms had a $33.7 billion bonus pool for 2022, which is 21% smaller than the previous year’s record of $42.7 billion — and the largest drop since the Great Recession.

    For New York City and New York State coffers, bonus season means a welcome infusion of revenue, since employees in the securities industry make up 5% of private sector employees in NYC and their pay accounts for 22% of the city’s private sector wages. In 2021, Wall Street was estimated to be responsible for 16% of all economic activity in the city.

    DiNapoli’s office projects the lower bonuses will bring in $457 million less in state income tax revenue and $208 million less for the city compared to the year before.

    Beleaguered retailed Bed Bath & Beyond will attempt to $300 million of its stock to repay creditors and fund its business as it struggles to avoid bankruptcy, reports CNN’s Nathaniel Meyersohn.

    If it’s not able to raise sufficient money from the offering, the home furnishings giant said Thursday it expects to “likely file for bankruptcy.”

    Bed Bath & Beyond was able to initially avoid bankruptcy in February by completing a complex stock offering that gave it both an immediate injection of cash and a pledge for more funding in the future to pay down its debt. That offering was backed by private equity group Hudson Bay Capital.

    But on Thursday, Bed Bath & Beyond said it was terminating the deal with Hudson Bay Capital for future funding and is turning to the public market.

    Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond dropped more than 26% Thursday. The stock was trading around 60 cents a share.

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  • ‘It’s not zero.’ Wall Street is pricing in a small but growing risk of a disastrous US default | CNN Business

    ‘It’s not zero.’ Wall Street is pricing in a small but growing risk of a disastrous US default | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    A US default would have such devastating economic and financial consequences that many observers dismiss the possibility out of hand. But investors are not ruling out such a nightmare scenario.

    Even though a default could wipe out millions of jobs and wreak havoc on Wall Street, the White House and Republican leaders in Washington are nowhere near a deal to avert disaster that could strike as soon as July.

    As politicians sleepwalk toward a potential debt ceiling crisis, financial markets have begun pricing in a small — but growing — chance of a disastrous default.

    The implied probability of a US government default has increased to approximately 2%, according to modeling by research provider MSCI shared exclusively with CNN. That calculation is based on the cost to insure US debt in the market for credit default swaps.

    Although the probability of default is tiny, it has increased roughly fivefold since January 2, MSCI said.

    Since then, chaos in Congress, underlined by the historic dysfunction leading up to the election of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, have raised concerns about how lawmakers will reach a compromise on much thornier issues such as the debt ceiling.

    “The probability of default has gone up noticeably,” Andy Sparks, head of portfolio management research at MSCI, told CNN in an interview. “It is small, but it’s not zero. And it has gone up in a very significant way.”

    An actual default would be terrible — for both Wall Street and Main Street. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi has described a default as “financial Armageddon.”

    “I don’t think anyone should be complacent about this,” said Sparks. “Turmoil in the banking system shows how things can change very quickly.”

    The federal government hit the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling in January, forcing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to take accounting moves known as “extraordinary measures” to avoid default.

    Yellen has used unusually strong language for a former central banker to warn Congress against messing with the debt ceiling. On Thursday, Yellen said a breach of the debt ceiling could spark a “prolonged downturn and a global financial crisis.”

    “It could upend the lives of millions of Americans and those around the world,” Yellen said in a speech.

    Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius told CNN in January that even a near-default could cause a recession as well as turmoil in financial markets. Moody’s estimates that even a brief breach of the debt limit would kill almost a million jobs.

    All of this explains why many believe Washington will get a deal done before disaster strikes, as it has in the past.

    Even though leaders in Washington are not seriously negotiating on a debt ceiling deal, there is still time.

    The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that even without addressing the debt ceiling, the government will have enough cash to avoid a default until sometime between July and September. The exact timing for the so-called X-date will depend in large part on 2022 tax collections in April.

    Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, told CNN last week that it’s “hard to imagine” the government would breach the debt ceiling.

    Still, Barkin conceded if it happened the Fed would be forced to react, much like it did after the Sept. 11 terror attacks.

    Others are more pessimistic about the debt ceiling.

    Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments, only sees a 60% chance that Congress reaches a deal to address the debt ceiling.

    “I think we’ll come right up to the precipice,” Valliere, who is based in Washington, told CNN. “Most people in this city feel it’s inconceivable we could default on our debt. I agree it’s unlikely but it’ll be much closer than people thought.”

    He pointed to the more radical makeup of the Republican caucus and the reluctance among some lawmakers to vote for a debt ceiling hike.

    Even McCarthy, the Republican House Speaker, told CNBC this week there has been “no progress” in negotiations. “Time is ticking. Now I’m very concerned about where we are,” McCarthy said.

    “I worry there are just enough House radicals who might not accept anything. And it doesn’t take many of them to make this a crisis,” Valliere said.

    Asked about MSCI’s estimate of a 2% implied probability of a default, Valliere said that number is low.

    “The markets are too sanguine,” he said. “The market has felt for months that this is like the little boy who cries wolf. But this is not a typical debt ceiling debate.”

    There are some early indicators of concern popping up in the bond market.

    Morgan Stanley wrote in a report on Thursday that “kinks” have emerged in the Treasury bill market around bonds that mature around the X-date.

    “Market attention could swing back to this issue soon” Morgan Stanley advised clients.

    Or maybe not.

    McCarthy and his top lieutenants say they are prepared to push ahead with a fallback plan: A party-line bill to raise the debt ceiling, CNN’s Manu Raju reports.

    But such a move could be risky. Republicans can only afford to lose four of their own members in any party-line vote.

    There is also a possibility that Congress punts, reaching a short-term agreement to delay the issue by a few months.

    Eurasia Group analyst Jon Lieber said in a report Thursday there is a growing chance that lawmakers put off a debt ceiling solution until the end of the year.

    “A short-term punt would merely delay and not eliminate the disruption risks of the debt limit,” Lieber said.

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  • Alabama men’s basketball star Brandon Miller declares for NBA Draft, per reports | CNN

    Alabama men’s basketball star Brandon Miller declares for NBA Draft, per reports | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    University of Alabama men’s basketball star Brandon Miller has declared for the 2023 NBA Draft, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

    The 20-year-old freshman forward Miller is considered one of the top prospects in this year’s draft class. Miller averaged 18.8 points and 8.2 rebounds per game in 37 games played.

    Miller said he thanks “God, my family, my fans and all the coaches at the University of Alabama,” in a statement to ESPN.

    Miller helped lead the Crimson Tide to a 31-6 record and the top overall seed in the men’s NCAA tournament. Miller, playing through an injury, struggled in the tournament and Alabama would go on to lose in the Sweet 16 to San Diego State.

    CNN has reached out to the Alabama athletic department for comment but did not immediately hear back.

    The embattled star did not miss a game for the Crimson Tide this season, despite a fatal shooting near campus which the school said he is a “cooperative witness” in.

    A law enforcement officer testified that another man had texted Miller to bring the man’s gun to the scene, where Jamea Jonae Harris was shot dead in January, according to CNN affiliate WBMA.

    Two men have been charged with murder.

    Miller has not been charged with any crime.

    The Alabama athletic department said in February that Miller is “not considered a suspect … only a cooperative witness” in the murder case.

    The 2023 NBA Draft is scheduled for June 22 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

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  • UBS brings back Sergio Ermotti as CEO to oversee Credit Suisse rescue | CNN Business

    UBS brings back Sergio Ermotti as CEO to oversee Credit Suisse rescue | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong/London
    CNN
     — 

    UBS is bringing back its former chief executive, Sergio Ermotti, to manage the hugely complex and risky task of completing the bank’s emergency takeover of rival Credit Suisse

    (CS)    .

    The surprise appointment, announced Wednesday, highlights the scale of the challenge facing the Swiss lender as it executes a first-of-its-kind merger of two global banks with combined assets of nearly $1.7 trillion.

    The Swiss government engineered the rescue 10 days ago as Credit Suisse teetered on the brink of collapse, a failure that would have rocked a global financial system already reeling from the second-biggest American banking collapse in history.

    Ermotti was UBS

    (UBS)     CEO between 2011 and 2020 and is credited with successfully overhauling the bank following its bailout during the 2008 financial crisis. He is seen as a safe pair of hands capable of turning around embattled Credit Suisse.

    His second stint in the top job, which begins April 5, means the end of current CEO Ralph Hamers’ tenure after just two and a half years in the role, during which time the bank has delivered successive record results.

    Hamers “has agreed to step down to serve the interests of the new combination, the Swiss financial sector and the country,” UBS said in a statement. Hamers will remain at the lender for a transition period.

    UBS chairman Colm Kelleher thanked Hamers for his contribution but said the board felt Ermotti was “the better horse” for such a massive integration. “There’s a huge amount of risk in integrating these businesses,” Kelleher said at a press conference.

    As a first order of business, Ermotti will need to cut thousands of jobs and downsize Credit Suisse’s investment bank, while aligning it with a more conservative risk culture — a task he is familiar with.

    During his previous tenure as CEO, Ermotti “transformed” UBS’ investment bank “by cutting its footprint and achieved a profound culture change within the bank which allowed it to regain the trust of clients and other stakeholders, while restoring people’s pride in working for UBS,” the lender said in its statement.

    Kelleher and Hamers both highlighted the cultural differences with Credit Suisse. UBS’ smaller rival has been plagued by scandals and compliance failures in recent years that wiped out its profit and cost several top managers their jobs.

    In a fresh blow to Credit Suisse’s reputation, a US Senate investigation published Wednesday found that the bank is complicit in ongoing tax evasion by ultra-wealthy Americans.

    “We do not want to import a bad culture into UBS,” Kelleher told reporters, adding that UBS would put all Credit Suisse employees “through a culture filter, to make sure we don’t import something into our ecosystem that causes culture issues.”

    Hamers said integrating the banks is something he would have “loved to do,” but that he supported the board’s decision, which was in the best interests of the new entity and its stakeholders — including Switzerland and its financial sector.

    The merger is high-stakes for Switzerland’s economy, too. The combined bank’s assets are worth twice as much as the country’s annual output, while local deposits in the new entity equal 45% of GDP — an enormous amount even for a nation with healthy public finances and low levels of debt.

    In the Wednesday statement, Kelleher said the deal “imposes new priorities on us,” while supporting UBS’ existing strategy.

    He added: “With his unique experience, I am very confident that Sergio [Ermotti] will deliver the successful integration that is so essential for both banks’ clients, employees and investors, and for Switzerland.”

    Ermotti told reporters he felt a “call of duty” to accept the role and that during his previous stint as CEO he had believed that an acquisition of this kind was the “right next move for UBS.”

    “I always felt that the next chapter I wanted to write back then was a chapter of doing a transaction like this one.”

    Ermotti is currently chairman of Swiss Re

    (SSREF)     and intends to step down after the insurer’s annual general meeting next month.

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  • Alibaba’s restructuring and Jack Ma’s homecoming are all part of China’s plan | CNN Business

    Alibaba’s restructuring and Jack Ma’s homecoming are all part of China’s plan | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    Alibaba’s landmark restructuring has sent its shares soaring in New York and Hong Kong, as investors bet on the return of regulatory support for China’s tech industry and private businesses after more than two years of a brutal crackdown.

    But the nature of the overhaul, in which the internet conglomerate will split its business into six separate units, is a sign that Beijing’s campaign against Big Tech hasn’t fundamentally changed. Regulators still intend to reduce the monopolistic nature of tech giants and limit their power, even as they urge private companies to do their part to create jobs and boost a flagging economy.

    The news of the restructuring came shortly after the return of co-founder Jack Ma to mainland China. Ma had been spending time overseas and otherwise keeping a low profile since the Chinese government began a fierce crackdown on the tech sector in late 2020.

    “It appears that Alibaba’s break-up has been orchestrated by Beijing,” said Brock Silvers, chief investment officer for Kaiyuan Capital.

    “This idea is reinforced by Jack Ma’s sudden reappearance, which now seems like a planned media event intended to boost market sentiment at a critical moment.”

    It worked. Shares in Alibaba

    (BABA)    , which has a market capitalization of $260 billion, soared 13% in Hong Kong on Wednesday, following a 14% surge on Wall Street overnight, leading the tech sector’s gains in the Asia Pacific.

    Ma is seen as a symbol of China’s tech industry and a barometer of the Chinese government’s support for private business. His presence is perceived as evidence of a more supportive approach to the private sector, at a time when China’s economy badly needs growth.

    In October 2020, the once high-profile entrepreneur criticized the country’s financial regulatory system for being too rigid and unfriendly to small business. As a result, the authorities shelved Ant Group’s planned $35 billion IPO at the last minute.

    A sweeping regulatory crackdown on Big Tech followed, which later engulfed China’s most powerful private companies, wiping huge sums off their market value. Alibaba’s stock is still down 70% from its peak just days before regulators abruptly pulled the Ant Group IPO.

    But almost three years on, the dynamics have changed.

    The Chinese government is now facing significant economic challenges. It’s eager to shore up growth and reinvigorate confidence in the tech sector following its emergence from three years of strict Covid-19 controls.

    Alibaba’s restructuring is “part of [Beijing’s] strategy to shore up confidence in the private sector,” said Hong Hao, chief economist for Grow Investment Group.

    In a policy shift, Chinese leader Xi Jinping recently urged the government to support private businesses, while calling on entrepreneurs to play a role in boosting growth and tech innovation, so that China can better counter what he called “containment” and “suppression” from the West led by the United States.

    Premier Li Qiang, a trusted ally of Xi who was confirmed as the country’s No 2 official this month, followed up by rolling out a series of measures intended to repair ties between the government and the private sector.

    “For a period of time last year, there were some incorrect discussions and comments in the society, which made some private entrepreneurs feel worried,” Premier Li said at his first news conference earlier this month.

    China may need Alibaba now, but it’s not nearly as powerful as it was, according to analysts.

    The breakup appears to “curb the influence of tech titans,” Silvers said. “It would serve as a stark reminder of Beijing’s uncomfortable relationship with the private sector, despite recent reassurances.”

    Beijing’s major concern is that private tech firms have become too big and powerful. During its years-long clampdowns, the government sought to reduce the monopolistic nature of many prominent tech companies, slapping them with big fines, banning apps from stores and demanding that some firms completely overhaul their businesses.

    “[Alibaba’s restructuring plan] offers a way to limit monopoly power and platform sway,” Hong said.

    It could serve as a model for other Chinese tech giants going forward.

    “Tencent is the obvious [one] next,” Hong said, adding that the social media and gaming giant has already started reducing its stake in portfolio companies, including food delivery company Meituan.

    Investors and analysts have cheered Alibaba’s restructuring.

    The move marks the most significant overhaul in the company’s 24-year history and will “unlock the value” of its various businesses, it said on Tuesday.

    Alibaba’s business will be split into six units: domestic e-commerce, international e-commerce, cloud computing, local services, logistics, and media and entertainment.

    The domestic e-commerce group, which includes Taobao and contributes to a majority of the company’s revenues, will remain a wholly-owned unit. The other five, meanwhile, will have their own CEOs and can pursue separate public listings.

    “The market is the best litmus test, and each business group and company can pursue independent fundraising and IPOs when they are ready,” Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang said in an email to employees.

    Some analysts welcomed the move, believing it will lead investors to reassess the valuation of Alibaba.

    Citi analysts said Tuesday their target price for Alibaba’s US-listed stock was $156 per share, which is nearly 60% higher than Tuesday’s closing level.

    -— CNN’s Riley Zhang contributed reporting.

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  • Kakao wins control of K-pop powerhouse SM Entertainment | CNN Business

    Kakao wins control of K-pop powerhouse SM Entertainment | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong/Seoul
    CNN
     — 

    South Korean internet company Kakao has become the largest shareholder of SM Entertainment, winning a battle for control of one of the country’s most iconic music agencies.

    Kakao and its entertainment unit have increased their stake in SM to 39.9%, they said in a Tuesday regulatory filing. Previously, the firm had held 4.9% of SM.

    Kakao purchased the additional shares for about 1.25 trillion Korean won ($963 million) through a tender offer launched earlier this month.

    In securing a controlling stake, Kakao has seen off rival HYBE, South Korea’s top music agency and home to boy band sensation BTS, after a bruising takeover battle.

    In a separate Tuesday filing, HYBE said it had sold some of its SM shares to Kakao, reducing its stake to 8.8%.

    Kakao CEO Hong Eun-taek acknowledged the acquisition, telling shareholders Tuesday that the companies would work to combine the strengths of Kakao’s tech expertise and SM’s intellectual property and production skills “to expand our collective growth.”

    “After the swift and amicable completion of the acquisition, we will form the business cooperation plans between Kakao, Kakao Entertainment and SM Entertainment, and share them with our investors,” he added.

    Kakao raised eyebrows earlier this month by doubling down on its quest to take control of SM, seeking to get a bigger piece of the music label just days after a previous share sale agreement between the two parties was blocked by a South Korean court.

    SM was founded by Lee Soo-man, a legendary music producer who is widely referred to in South Korea as “the godfather of K-pop” for introducing the genre to a mass audience. The company is known for representing hit artists such as NCT 127, EXO, BoA and Girls’ Generation.

    Recently, however, it’s made headlines for a different reason: shareholder battles.

    Lee has tussled with his firm’s management on multiple fronts this year — including how much of the company should be sold to either Kakao or HYBE. He sold most of his shares to HYBE for 422.8 billion Korean won ($334.5 million) in February, giving the agency a 14.8% stake.

    HYBE had also tried to increase its stake in the company in recent weeks, with its own tender offer that failed to gain traction.

    After that, Kakao swooped in by offering SM shareholders 150,000 won ($115) per share, significantly more than HYBE’s previous offer of 120,000 won ($92) per share. HYBE then formally called off its takeover bid.

    SM’s management said it wanted to move forward with Kakao because the two parties were aligned on how the agency should operate.

    SM Entertainment’s stock rose 3.5% on Tuesday following the news, while Kakao’s shares were little changed.

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  • The US case against Binance calls out one of the worst-kept secrets in crypto | CNN Business

    The US case against Binance calls out one of the worst-kept secrets in crypto | CNN Business

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    Editor’s Note: A version of this story appeared in CNN Business’ Nightcap newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free, here.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    If you live in America, you’re not allowed to trade crypto derivatives. And if you’re a big international platform for trading crypto derivatives, you can’t let Americans trade those products if you haven’t registered with the boring-sounding but not-to-be-trifled-with federal regulator known as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC.

    Today, that regulator sued Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, for allegedly doing just that. (And if that name sounds familiar, it may because back in November, Binance briefly flirted with bailing out its smaller rival, FTX. Obviously, Binance took one look under the hood at FTX, now at the center of a massive federal fraud investigation, and promptly bailed.)

    Here’s the deal: The CFTC alleges that Binance and its CEO violated US trading laws by, among other things, secretly coaching “VIP” customers within the United States on how to evade compliance controls.

    The commission, which regulates US derivatives trading, said the company and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, “instructed its employees and customers to circumvent compliance controls in order to maximize corporate profits.”

    Which, you know, isn’t something you want to be caught doing. The CFTC can’t bring criminal charges, but it can seek heavy fines and potentially ban Binance from registering in the US in the future.

    Binance said the lawsuit was “unexpected and disappointing,” adding that it has made “significant investments” in the past two years to ensure that US-based investors are not active on the platform.

    As news of the lawsuit broke Monday, Zhao, known as “CZ,” tweeted the number 4, pointing to a part of a previous statement: “Ignore FUD, fake news, attacks, etc.” (FUD is a commonly used acronym among crypto folks that stands for “fear, uncertainty, doubt.”)

    Binance has long argued that it isn’t subject to US laws because it doesn’t have a physical headquarters in America. Or anywhere, really — CZ claims that the company’s headquarters are wherever he is at any point in time, “reflecting a deliberate approach to attempt to avoid regulation,” according to the CFTC’s lawsuit.

    The CFTC’s lawsuit is certainly not great news for Binance, or for crypto more broadly. But it’s not quite the seismic event that was FTX’s collapse, or even the Terra/Luna meltdown. (You can read more about those here and here but, tl;dr: Those 2022 events were, to use a technical term, holy-crap-sell-everything-call-your-dad-and-cry moments for crypto investors.)

    Prices of bitcoin and ethereum, the two most popular cryptocurrencies, fell more than 3% Monday. Which is to say, it was just another day trading virtual currencies.

    Perhaps the most significant part of the lawsuit is the way the CFTC loudly calls out one of the worst-kept secrets in all of crypto: That not only are US customers gaining access to risky offshore crypto derivatives they shouldn’t be allowed to access, but it’s also pretty darn easy to do so. All anyone needs is a VPN and an iron stomach, because crypto derivatives are leveraged bets on wildly unstable assets. (And like everything in this newsletter, that shouldn’t be taken as any kind of advice.)

    The likely outcome, said Timothy Cradle, a crypto compliance and regulation expert at Blockchain Intelligence Group, will be that Binance ends up paying “hundreds of millions of dollars” in fines and will be prevented from registering a derivatives exchange in the future. That’s “a terminal blow for users of their service located in the US and a significant hit to Binance’s revenue” as the suit alleges US users make up 16% of the revenue for Binance’s derivatives product.

    Monday’s news adds yet another layer of regulatory scrutiny on crypto’s biggest players. The Internal Revenue Service and Securities and Exchange Commission are also reportedly also investigating Binance, per Bloomberg.

    Meanwhile, Coinbase, the largest US-listed crypto exchange, received a so-called Wells notice (typically a precursor to enforcement action) last week from the SEC for possible securities law violations.

    And just to pile on: The crypto industry earlier this month lost two of its biggest connections to the mainstream finance world — Silvergate and Signature Bank.

    All in all, not a great month for the industry that is perpetually straining credibility even when it’s hot. And right now, it is decidedly not.

    Enjoying Nightcap? Sign up and you’ll get all of this, plus some other funny stuff we liked on the internet, in your inbox every night. (OK, most nights — we believe in a four-day work week around here.)

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  • This is why SVB imploded, says top Fed official | CNN Business

    This is why SVB imploded, says top Fed official | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Silicon Valley Bank imploded due to mismanagement and a sudden panic among depositors, a top Federal Reserve official plans to tell lawmakers at a hearing on Tuesday.

    In prepared testimony released on Monday, Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision, details how SVB leadership failed to effectively manage interest rate and liquidity risk.

    “SVB’s failure is a textbook case of mismanagement,” Barr says in testimony to be delivered before the Senate Banking Committee.

    The Fed official points out that SVB’s belated effort to fix its balance sheet only made matters worse.

    “The bank waited too long to address its problems and, ironically, the overdue actions it finally took to strengthen its balance sheet sparked the uninsured depositor run that led to the bank’s failure,” said Barr, adding that there was “inadequate” risk management and internal controls.

    Depositors yanked $42 billion from SVB on March 9 alone in a bank run, a panic that appeared to be fueled in part by venture capitalists urging tech startups to pull their funds.

    “Social media saw a surge in talk about a run, and uninsured depositors acted quickly to flee,” said Barr.

    The Fed official echoed comments from other top regulators in assuring the public about the safety of banks.

    “Our banking system is sound and resilient, with strong capital and liquidity,” Barr said. “We are committed to ensuring that all deposits are safe. We will continue to closely monitor conditions in the banking system and are prepared to use all of our tools for any size institution, as needed, to keep the system safe and sound.”

    Facing questions over how regulators — including at the Fed itself — missed red flags at SVB, the Fed has launched a review of oversight of the bank. Barr, who is leading that review, promised to take an “unflinching look” at the supervision and regulation of SVB. He said the review will be thorough and transparent and officials welcome and expert external reviews as well.

    In his testimony, Barr discloses that near the end of 2021, bank supervisors found “deficiencies” in the bank’s liquidity risk management. That resulted in six supervisory findings linked to SVB’s liquidity stress testing, contingency funding and liquidity risk management.

    Then, in May 2022, supervisors issued three findings related to “ineffective” board oversight, risk management weaknesses and internal audit function lapses, Barr said. Bank supervisors took further steps last year that show regulators were aware of problems at SVB.

    Barr’s testimony indicates the Fed’s review will examine how the 2018 rollback of Dodd-Frank may have contributed to SVB’s failure. That rollback, under then-President Donald Trump, allowed SVB to avoid tougher stress testing and rules on liquidity, funding, leverage and capital.

    Barr said the Fed will weigh whether the applying those tougher rules to SVB would have helped the bank manage the risks that led to its failure.

    Looking ahead, Barr said the recent events have underscored how regulators must enhance rules applying to banks and study banking has been changed by social media, customer behavior, rapid growth and other developments.

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  • IMF chief warns of ‘risks’ to global financial stability, but China showing signs of recovery | CNN Business

    IMF chief warns of ‘risks’ to global financial stability, but China showing signs of recovery | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    The head of the International Monetary Fund called for greater vigilance over the global financial system during a speech in China on Sunday in which she also pointed to “green shoots” emerging in the world’s second-largest economy.

    “Risks to financial stability have increased,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said during remarks at the China Development Forum in Beijing.

    Georgieva lauded how policy-makers had acted swiftly in response to the banking crisis, citing the recent collaboration by major central banks to boost the flow of US dollars around the world.

    “These actions have eased market stress to some extent,” she said. “But uncertainty is high, which underscores the need for vigilance.”

    Global investors have been on high alert about the health of the banking sector following the sudden downfalls of Credit Suisse, Silicon Valley Bank and US regional lender Signature Bank.

    Last week, concerns about Deutsche Bank and speculation over one of its bond payments also weighed on markets, prompting EU leaders to reassure the public over the resilience of Europe’s banking system.

    Georgieva said Sunday that the IMF was continuing to watch the situation, and assess potential implications for the global economic outlook.

    Meanwhile, she reiterated an IMF projection that the world economy will see growth slow to just under 3% this year, due to continued fallout from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and tighter monetary policies.

    That’s compared to the historic average of 3.8%, according to Georgieva, and down from 3.2% in 2022.

    But she also pointed to the emergence of “green shoots” in China, where the IMF expects the recently reopened economy to expand by 5.2% this year. That’s roughly in line with Beijing’s official target of 5%.

    Such growth would mark a historic low. But it would still be a significant improvement on the 3% logged by the world’s second-largest economy last year — and help prop up the global economy.

    China’s rebound this year will allow it to contribute roughly one third of global growth, according to Georgieva. Any 1% increase in Chinese GDP growth would also help lift other Asian economies’ growth by an average of 0.3%, she added.

    But the IMF chief urged Chinese policymakers to take steps to shift its economy and “rebalance” it toward more consumption-driven growth.

    Leaning toward that model would be “more durable, less reliant on debt, and will also help address climate challenges,” Georgieva said.

    “To get there, the social protection system will need to play a central role through higher health and unemployment insurance benefits to cushion households against shocks.”

    Georgieva also called for reforms to help “level the playing field between the private sector and state-owned enterprises, together with investments in education.”

    “The combined impact of these policies could be significant,” she said.

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  • Small US banks see record drop in deposits after SVB collapse | CNN Business

    Small US banks see record drop in deposits after SVB collapse | CNN Business

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    Deposits at small US banks dropped by a record amount following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on March 10, data released on Friday by the Federal Reserve showed.

    Deposits at small banks fell $119 billion to $5.46 trillion in the week ended March 15, which was more than twice the previous record drop and the biggest decline as a percent of overall deposits since the week ended March 16, 2007.

    Borrowings at small banks, defined as all but the biggest 25 commercial US banks, increased by $253 billion to a record $669.6 billion, the Fed’s weekly data showed.

    “As a result, small banks had $97 billion more in cash on hand at the end of the week, suggesting that some of the borrowing was to build war chests as a precautionary measure in case depositors asked to redeem their money,” Capital Economics’ analyst Paul Ashworth wrote.

    SVB collapsed after it was unable to meet a swift and massive run by depositors who took out tens of billions of dollars in a matter of hours.

    Deposits at large US banks rose $67 billion in the week to $10.74 trillion, the Fed data showed.

    Overall US bank deposits have been in decline after sharply rising in the wake of pandemic aid in 2020 and early 2021.

    The reversal in the trend for large banks was notable. The rise equates to about half as much as the deposit decline at small banks, suggesting some of the cash may have gone into money market funds or other instruments.

    Large banks also increased borrowings in the week, by $251 billion.

    It was unclear if the shift in deposits out of small banks will persist.

    “Deposit flows in the banking system have stabilized over the last week,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday.

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  • What the banking crisis means for mortgage rates | CNN Business

    What the banking crisis means for mortgage rates | CNN Business

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    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    Mortgage rates have taken would-be buyers on a ride this year — and it’s only March.

    Generally, home buyers can anticipate mortgage rates to move down through the rest of this year as the banking crisis drags on, which could cool down inflation.

    But there are bound to be some bumps along the way. Here’s why rates have been bouncing around and where they could end up.

    After steadily rising last year as a result of the Federal Reserve’s historic campaign to rein in inflation, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage topped out at 7.08% in November, according to Freddie Mac. Then, with economic data suggesting inflation was retreating, the average rate drifted down through January.

    But a raft of robust economic reports in February brought concerns that inflation was not cooling as quickly or as much as many had hoped. As a result, after falling to 6.09%, average mortgage rates climbed back up, rising half a percentage point over the month.

    Then in March banks began collapsing. That sent rates falling again.

    Neither the actions of the Federal Reserve nor the bank failures directly impact mortgage rates. But rates are indirectly impacted by actions that the Fed takes or is expected to take, as well as the health of the broader financial system and any uncertainty that may be percolating.

    On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise interest rates by a quarter point as it attempts to fight stubbornly high inflation while taking into account recent risks to financial stability.

    While the bank failures made the Fed’s work more complicated, analysts have said that, if contained, the banking meltdown may have actually done some work for the Fed, by bringing down prices without raising interest rates. To that point, the Fed suggested on Wednesday that it may be at the end of its rate hike cycle.

    Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which move based on a combination of anticipation about the Fed’s actions, what the Fed actually does and investors’ reactions. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow.

    Following the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday, bond yields — and the mortgage rates that usually follow them — fell.

    But the relationship between mortgage rates and Treasurys has weakened slightly in recent weeks, said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow.

    “The secondary mortgage market may react to speculation that more financial entities may need to sell their long-term investments, like mortgage backed securities, to get more liquidity today,” he said.

    Even as Treasurys decline, he said, tighter credit conditions as a result of bank failures will likely limit any dramatic plunging of mortgage rates.

    “This could restrict mortgage lenders’ access to funding sources, resulting in higher rates than Treasuries would otherwise indicate,” Divounguy said. “For borrowers, lending standards were already quite strict, and tighter conditions may make it more difficult for some home shoppers to secure funding. In turn, for home sellers, the time it takes to sell could increase as buyers hesitate.”

    Inflation is still quite high, but it is slowing and analysts are anticipating a much slower economy over the next few quarters — which should further bring down inflation. This is good for mortgage borrowers, who can expect to see rates retreating through this year, said Mike Fratantoni, Mortgage Bankers Association senior vice president and chief economist.

    “Homebuyers in 2023 have shown themselves to be quite sensitive to any changes in mortgage rates,” Fratantoni said.

    The MBA forecasts that mortgage rates are likely to trend down over the course of this year, with the 30-year fixed rate falling to around 5.3% by the end of the year.

    “The housing market was the first sector to slow as the result of tighter monetary policy and should be the first to benefit as policymakers slow — and ultimately stop — hiking rates,” said Fratantoni.

    In second half of the year, the inflation picture is expected to improve, leading to mortgage rates that are more stable.

    “Expectations for slower economic growth or even a recession should bring inflation down and help mortgage rates decline,” said Divounguy.

    That’s good news for home buyers since it improves affordability, bringing down the cost to finance a home. It also benefits sellers, since it reduces the intensity of an interest-rate lock-in.

    Lower rates could also convince more homeowners to list their home for sale. With the inventory of homes for sale near historic lows, this would add badly needed inventory to an extremely limited pool.

    “Mortgage rates are steering both supply and demand in today’s costly environment,” said Divounguy. “Home sales picked up in January when rates were relatively low, then slacked off as they ramped back up.”

    But with cooling inflation comes a higher risk of job losses, which is typically bad for the housing market.

    “Of course, much uncertainty surrounding the state of inflation and this still-evolving banking turmoil remains,” said Divounguy.

    In his remarks on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said estimates of how much the recent banking developments could slow the economy amounted to “guesswork, almost, at this point.”

    But regardless of the tack the economy and banking concerns take, their impact will quickly be seen in mortgage rates.

    “Evidence — in either direction — of spillovers into the broader economy or accelerating inflation would likely cause another policy shift, which would materialize in mortgage rates,” said Divounguy.

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