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  • Tim Cook agrees to a massive pay cut | CNN Business

    Tim Cook agrees to a massive pay cut | CNN Business

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    Apple CEO Tim Cook has agreed to cut his pay this year after shareholders rebelled.

    The world’s largest tech company said it would reduce Cook’s target pay package to $49 million, 40% lower than his target pay for 2022 and about half Cook’s $99.4 million total compensation that he was granted last year.

    The vast majority of Cook’s 2022 compensation — about 75% — was tied up in company shares, with half of that dependent on share price performance.

    But shareholders voted against Cook’s pay package after Apple’s stock fell nearly 27% last year. The vote is nonbinding, but the board’s compensation committee said it took the vote into consideration.

    “The compensation committee balanced shareholder feedback, Apple’s exceptional performance, and a recommendation from Mr. Cook to adjust his compensation in light of the feedback received,” the company said in its annual proxy statement released Thursday.

    This year, the executive’s share award target has been cut to $40 million. About $30 million, or three-quarters, of that is linked to share price performance.

    Cook’s base salary of $3 million will stay the same, the company said, as well as a $6 million bonus.

    The board said it believes Cook’s new pay package is “responsive to shareholder feedback, while continuing both to align pay with performance and to recognize Mr. Cook’s outstanding leadership.”

    The tech boss, who has headed up Apple since 2011, is estimated to have a personal wealth of $1.7 billion, according to Forbes.

    Apple’s share price, like other tech companies, plunged last year as coronavirus lockdowns shuttered some of its factories in China. Supply chain bottlenecks and fears that a global economic slowdown would crimp demand also dragged down its stock.

    In January last year, the tech giant became the first publicly traded company to notch a $3 trillion market capitalization, yet has has shed nearly $1 billion of that value since.

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  • Egg prices exploded 60% higher last year. These food prices surged too | CNN Business

    Egg prices exploded 60% higher last year. These food prices surged too | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    Eggs, milk, butter, flour … if you were making pancakes last year, it would have cost you. Food prices surged in 2022.

    Grocery prices remain stubbornly high (and nearly double the rate of overall inflation) at 11.8% year over year, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    Blame Russia, the weather, disease and a host of other factors.

    “Even though we’re seeing inflationary pressures ease, we still have a war in Ukraine,” said Tom Bailey, senior consumer foods analyst with Rabobank. “Fertilizer costs have improved, but they still remain very high. Energy costs have improved, but they still remain relatively high. Labor costs still remain a problem — and the list goes on.”

    Weather and disease are heavily affecting certain products’ prices, too – and none have been more rotten than egg prices: They’re up 59.9% year over year, a rate not seen since 1973, when high feed costs, shortages and price freezes caused certain agricultural products to soar in price. Since early last year, a deadly avian flu has devastated poultry flocks, especially turkeys and egg-laying hens. That was compounded by increasing demand and higher input costs, such as feed.

    As a result, people like Jim Quinn are shelling out upwards of $6 and $7 for a dozen eggs.

    Quinn has run daytime eatery The Hungry Monkey Café in Newport, Rhode Island, with his wife, Kate, since 2009. As a breakfast and lunch joint, it leans heavily on eggs for the majority of dishes on its menu — and especially for the 15-egg King Kong omelet novelty food challenge at the restaurant.

    Even though eggs and seemingly every other ingredient have risen in price during the past year, Quinn and The Hungry Monkey have chosen to eat the cost.

    “I’m trying to hold the line on the prices without having to increase them,” Quinn said. “It makes it extremely challenging for a mom-and-pop [business].”

    He added: “We’re just trying to stay alive and hope that things will come down.”

    But there’s good news on the horizon. The cost of food is still hard to swallow, but the latest Consumer Price Index shows that those price increases — by and large — are at least growing at slower rates.

    In December, “food at home” prices increased 0.2% from the month before. That’s the smallest monthly increase since March 2021.

    The expectations are for food price increases to continue to moderate, Bailey said.

    “I suspect over the next 12 months we will see improvements in supply, improvements in the conditions that have been challenging across most of our food categories,” he said, “and we’ll finally start to see prices, at least upstream, really starting to come off. And then maybe it’s 2024 where we could eventually see some deflation for food.”

    Here’s a look at how prices are trending across certain food categories in December, according to BLS data:

    Eggs: +59.9% annually; +11.1% from November

    Butter and margarine: +35.3% annually; +1.7% from November

    Lettuce: +24.9% annually; +4% from November

    Flour and prepared flour mixes: +23.4% annually; -1% from November

    Canned fruits and vegetables: +18.4% annually; +0.3% from November

    Bread: +15.9% annually; +0.2% from November

    Cereals and cereal products: +15.6% annually; -0.3% from November

    Coffee: +14.3% annually; +0% from November

    Milk: +12.5% annually; -1% from November

    Chicken: +10.9% annually; -0.6% from November

    Baby food: +10.7% annually; -0.2% from November

    Fresh fruits: +3.4% annually; -1.9% from November

    Uncooked ground beef: +0.7% annually; -0.1% from November

    Bacon and related products: -3.7% annually; -2.9% from November

    Uncooked beef steaks: -5.4% annually; +0.9% from November

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  • House Oversight chairman seeks Biden family financial transaction data | CNN Politics

    House Oversight chairman seeks Biden family financial transaction data | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Rep. James Comer, in one of his first moves as House Oversight Chairman, is seeking information from the Treasury Department about the Biden family’s financial transactions and calling on a handful of former Twitter executives to testify at a public hearing.

    The new round of letters from the committee come as House Republicans are looking to flex their investigative might and make good on promises to delve into the Biden family finances and alleged political influence over technology companies after Twitter temporarily suppressed a 2020 story about Hunter Biden and his laptop.

    “Now that Democrats no longer have one-party rule in Washington, oversight and accountability are coming,” Comer said of his panel’s investigation into Hunter Biden and the Biden family’s business dealings. “This investigation is a top priority for House Republicans during the 118th Congress.”

    Comer requested Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen provide his panel with bank activity reports for Hunter Biden, President Biden’s brother James Biden and several Biden family associates and their related companies.

    “The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating President Biden’s involvement in his family’s foreign business practices and international influence peddling schemes,” Comer wrote to Yellen.

    Comer tried to acquire these bank activity reports, known as Suspicious Activity Reports, repeatedly when Republicans were in the minority but was largely unsuccessful. Comer has said he has only seen two and did not reveal the source of those reports.

    Comer has previously pointed to the bank activity reports – known as Suspicious Activity Reports – as evidence of potential wrongdoing by Joe Biden’s family members. But such reports are not conclusive and do not necessarily indicate wrongdoing. Each year, financial institutions file millions of suspicious activity reports and few lead to law enforcement inquiries.

    The White House accused Republicans of engaging in “political stunts” following Comer’s request Wednesday.

    “In their first week as a governing majority, House Republicans have not taken any meaningful action to address inflation and lower Americans’ costs, yet they’re jumping out of the gate with political stunts driven by the most extreme MAGA members of their caucus in an effort to get attention on Fox News,” Ian Sams, a spokesman for the White House Counsel’s office, said in a statement. “The President is going to continue focusing on the important issues the American people want their leaders to work together on, and we hope House Republicans will join him.”

    Comer also is seeking communications within the Treasury Department, its financial crimes enforcement division and the White House regarding those family members and related businesses and associates, all of which he wants to be returned by January 25.

    The letters to former Twitter officials offer a path to Comer’s investigative schedule ahead. The letters to former head of legal, policy and trust Vijaya Gadde; former head of trust and safety Yoel Roth; and former deputy general counsel James Baker call on the trio to appear in a public hearing the week of February 6. They come after Comer sent an earlier round of letters in December requesting their testimony.

    “Your attendance is necessary because of your role in suppressing Americans’ access to information about the Biden family on Twitter shortly before the 2020 election,” each of the letters to the former Twitter employees states.

    Republicans have seized on the so-called Twitter files as evidence of government censorship, although none of the messages released so far show the FBI explicitly telling Twitter to suppress a story that included material from a laptop belonging to Hunter Biden. An FBI agent at the heart of the controversy as well as several federal officials and tech executives have all denied there was any such order, CNN previously reported.

    Roth, meantime, has said publicly that the Hunter Biden story appeared as though it could be the product of a hack-and-leak operation, but he has denied that he personally tried to censor the story.

    “It’s widely reported that I personally directed the suppression of the Hunter Biden story. That is not true. It is absolutely, unequivocally untrue,” Roth told tech journalist Kara Swisher in a podcast interview last year.

    Comer’s demands come as both he and Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan have vowed to investigate the federal government’s influence over tech companies.

    In an interview with CNN earlier this week, Comer suggested that Judiciary staff could sit in on some of his committee’s interviews if there are common areas of interest, like with Twitter.

    “There is some overlap but that won’t be a problem for Jim and I,” Comer said in the interview. “He knows who we’re bringing in. We know who he’s bringing in.”

    This story has been updated with additional developments Wednesday.

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  • Fed Chair Powell: Bringing down inflation requires ‘measures that are not popular’ | CNN Business

    Fed Chair Powell: Bringing down inflation requires ‘measures that are not popular’ | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Investors shifted their focus Tuesday from the stock market to Stockholm as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made his first public appearance of the year.

    Powell participated in a panel discussion on central bank independence at an event hosted by Sweden’s central bank, the Sveriges Riksbank.

    The painful rate hikes the Fed is implementing to try to bring down inflation don’t make officials particularly popular, Powell admitted.

    “Restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy,” he said, before adding that it’s important not to succumb to the need to liked.

    “We should ‘stick to our knitting’ and not wander off to pursue perceived social benefits that are not tightly linked to our statutory goals and authorities,” Powell said.

    He highlighted climate change as a prime example of this.

    “Today, some analysts ask whether incorporating into bank supervision the perceived risks associated with climate change is appropriate, wise, and consistent with our existing mandates,” he said. “in my view, the Fed does have narrow, but important, responsibilities regarding climate-related financial risks. These responsibilities are tightly linked to our responsibilities for bank supervision. The public reasonably expects supervisors to require that banks understand, and appropriately manage, their material risks, including the financial risks of climate change.”

    US inflation rates (as measured by the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index) have been steadily falling for the past five months. That has enabled the Fed to start easing back on the size of its historically high rate hikes meant to cool the economy and fight rising prices.

    Inflation in the Eurozone, meanwhile, remains at an eye-popping 9.2% — though it eased between November and December. ECB president Christine Lagarde said last month she expects interest rate hikes to rise “significantly further, because inflation remains far too high and is projected to stay above our target for too long.”

    “If you compare with the Fed, we have more ground to cover. We have longer to go,” she added.

    The Bank of England, meanwhile, has also warned that inflation, still at its highest level since the 1980s, isn’t going anywhere. The BoE’s chief economist Huw Pill said this week that inflation could persist for longer than expected despite recent falls in wholesale energy prices and an economy on the brink of recession.

    These three central banks are fighting in different conditions, but they share a similar battle strategy: Keep tightening.

    The central bankers defended the importance of independence and credibility for their institutions, which has come under fire as policymakers are accused of having let surging inflation go unchecked for too long.

    December meeting minutes from the Fed, released last week, noted that the policymaking committee would “continue to make decisions meeting by meeting,” leaving options open for the size of rate hikes at the next monetary policy decision on February 1. No policymakers have forecast that it would be appropriate to reduce the bank’s benchmark borrowing rate this year. And while officials welcomed the recent softening in inflation, they stressed that “substantially more evidence” was required for a Fed “pivot.”

    Last week’s jobs report further muddied the picture, showing that employment remained strong while wage growth eased.

    Thursday’s CPI for December — which will be the new year’s first check on inflation — will also provide helpful clues to investors about whether US price hikes are sufficiently cooling.

    Encouraging data could bolster consensus estimates that call for a quarter-percentage point interest rate hike in February, a shift lower from December’s half-point hike and the four prior three-quarter-point hikes.

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  • Why is Wall Street cheery all of a sudden? | CNN Business

    Why is Wall Street cheery all of a sudden? | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    It’s only early January, but so far in 2023 the pendulum on Wall Street has swung (to paraphrase Billy Joel) from sadness to euphoria.

    Stocks are off to a solid start following last year’s dismal performance. Even though the Dow fell more than 110 points, or 0.3%, to close Monday’s session it is still up more than 1% this year. The S&P 500 ended Monday down 0.1% while the Nasdaq gained 0.6%. But those two indexes are each up about 1.5% since the end of 2022.

    Even the CNN Business Fear and Greed Index, which looks at seven indicators of market sentiment, is now inching closer to Greed territory — after languishing in Fear mode for the better part of the past few weeks.

    But why is there such optimism on Wall Street all of a sudden? The headlines still aren’t necessarily that great.

    Yes, the market cheered Friday’s jobs report because it showed slowing wage growth that could lead to a further reduction in inflation pressures and smaller rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. But it also showed the pace of job growth is slowing — and that could be a precursor to an eventual recession.

    Meanwhile the Institute for Supply Management’s latest data showed the services sector, a big engine of the US economy, contracted last month. And several high-profile companies in the tech, consumer, financial services (and yes, media) industries have announced big layoffs or unveiled plans to hand out pink slips. Retailers such as Macy’s

    (M)
    and Lululemon

    (LULU)
    are warning about sales and profits.

    Add all this up and it doesn’t sound like cause for celebration.

    But Wall Street is a funny place: Good news is often viewed as a bad sign, and vice versa.

    Sure, it would be a big plus if the Fed is able to pull off a proverbial soft landing, slowing the economy without leading to a full-blown recession and/or significant decline in corporate profits. But that’s a big if.

    There’s another possibility that bulls are clinging to as well: that there will be a recession, but a mild one that also just so happens to be one of the most widely expected and telegraphed downturns in recent memory. This isn’t a proverbial black swan. There is no “Lehman moment” to catch everyone off guard.

    As long as the Fed can get inflation under control, investors might not be too concerned by a recession anyway. At least, that’s the ‘glass is half full’ argument.

    “Any recession will be perceived by investors to be less problematic if inflation is judged to be sufficiently contained, and the Fed is prepared to mount an appropriate monetary response,” said Robert Teeter, managing director of Silvercrest Asset Management, in a report.

    Teeter added that falling inflation levels should boost stocks this year “even as earnings remain lackluster.”

    But others see a problem with that argument.

    “Our concern is that most [investors] are assuming ‘everyone is bearish’ and, therefore, the price downside in a recession is also likely to be mild,” said strategists at Morgan Stanley in a report.

    Instead, the Morgan Stanley strategists think investors might be surprised by just how much lower stocks go if there is a recession. They noted that the market may not be pricing in “much weaker earnings.”

    Investors may also be underestimating how far the Fed is willing to go with rate hikes in order to make sure inflation finally starts to fall.

    “Many investors have been reassured by the strength of the US labor market. Yet…the Federal Reserve is determined to tighten monetary policy until that strength is eradicated — the recession clock is ticking,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, in a report.

    And Shah does not believe the recession will be mild. She wrote after Friday’s jobs report that “a hard landing looks to be the most likely outcome this year.”

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  • Bonds are back, but for how long? | CNN Business

    Bonds are back, but for how long? | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Stocks soared on Friday to their best day in more than a month. The Dow gained 700 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 2.3% and 2.6% respectively, as traders bet that a slowdown in wage growth could mean that inflation may finally be cooling off.

    But the big turnaround story during the short first week of the year isn’t just about equities, it’s also about bonds.

    What’s happening: US Treasuries recorded their worst year in history in 2022, but investors are suddenly reversing course. They now appear quite optimistic about the bond market. 

    Last year’s bond massacre came as the Fed raised short-term interest rates at the fastest speed in about four decades, lifting the Fed funds rate to its highest level in over a decade. Bonds are particularly sensitive to those increases — as rates are hiked, the price of existing bonds falls as investors prefer the new debt that will soon be issued with those higher interest payouts.

    But now investors are betting that those rate increases are mostly over and that inflationary pressures are on a downswing.

    Treasuries just notched their strongest start to a year since 2001, back when investors eagerly purchased government debt under the (correct) assumption that then-Fed chair Alan Greenspan was about to slash interest rates. This time around, investors are scooping up bonds as they anticipate the pace of Fed interest rate hikes will soon ease.

    That’s great news for Treasuries. Core bonds, or US investment grade debt, tend to perform well during Fed rate hike pauses. Since 1984, core bonds have been able to generate average 6-month and 1-year returns of 8% and 13%, respectively, after the Fed stopped raising rates, according to data from LPL Financial.

    That anticipation could be seen at the end of last week. Treasuries tumbled following strong private jobs data earlier in the week but quickly rebounded when US payroll data showed that wage growth was weakening.

    The gains are in sync with economists’ positive outlooks for falling yields and rising bond prices in 2023.

    The other side: The problem is that there’s no guarantee that interest rates will actually come down, and investors could find themselves blindsided if they don’t.

     “The potential for rates to go high and stay higher for longer would hit bond markets hard, especially considering weaker economies would likely force governments to borrow more,” said Chris Varrone, managing director at Strategas, a Baird Company.

    Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers issued a warning on Friday to bond investors who assume that inflation is easing and a new era of low interest rates is upon us.

    “I suspect tumult” for bonds in 2023, Summers said on Bloomberg Television. “This is going to be remembered as a ‘V’ year when we recognized that we were headed into a different kind of financial era, with different kinds of interest-rate patterns.”

    Persistently high inflation may have put a damper on holiday shopping.

    Macy’s chair and CEO Jeff Gennette said Friday that lulls during the non-peak weeks of the fourth quarter “were deeper than anticipated” and that consumers will continue to feel pressured into 2023, reports my colleague Ramishah Maruf.

    Macy’s said Friday its net sales from the holiday quarter will likely be at the low-end to mid-point of its previously issued forecast range of $8.16 billion to $8.4 billion. It reported Q4 sales of $8.67 billion in 2021.

    Americans spent more this season to keep up with high prices. US retail sales increased 7.6% during the period between November 1 to December 24 compared to the same time last year, according to the Mastercard Spending Pulse. US retail sales were lower than expected in November, falling 0.6% during the month, which was the weakest performance in nearly a year.

    Gennette warned that consumer sentiment is unlikely to change with the new year.

    “Based on current macro-economic indicators and our proprietary credit card data, we believe the consumer will continue to be pressured in 2023, particularly in the first half, and have planned inventory mix and depth of initial buys accordingly,” the Macy’s CEO said.

    The company expects to report full results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2022 in early March 2023.

    China’s heavy-handed crackdown on tech giants is coming to an end and the country’s economic growth is expected to be back on track soon, according to a top central bank official, my colleague Laura He reports.

    The crackdown on fintech operations of more than a dozen internet companies is “basically” over, said Guo Shuqing, the Communist Party boss at the People’s Bank of China, in an interview with state-run Xinhua news agency on Saturday.

    “Next, we’ll promote healthy development of internet platforms,” said Guo, who is also chairman of China’s Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. “We’ll encourage them to come out strong in leading economic growth, creating more jobs, and competing globally.”

    His remarks came on the same day Chinese billionaire Jack Ma gave up control of Ant Group after the fintech giant’s shareholders agreed to restructure the company.

    Chinese tech stocks listed on US exchanges have already enjoyed a dream start to 2023.

    The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index — a popular index tracking Chinese firms listed in the United States — soared 13% in the first two trading days of 2023. That was the index’s best yearly start on record, according to data compiled by Refinitiv dating back to 2003.

    US-listed shares of Chinese e-commerce firms Alibaba

    (BABA)
    , JD.com

    (JD)
    , and Pinduoduo

    (PDD)
    added $53 billion to their combined market value last Wednesday alone.

    The sweeping regulatory crackdown since late 2020 had driven investors away. In 2021 and 2022, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index plummeted 46% and 25% respectively.

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  • Jack Ma to relinquish control of Ant group | CNN Business

    Jack Ma to relinquish control of Ant group | CNN Business

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    CNN
     — 

    Chinese billionaire Jack Ma will no longer control Ant Group after the fintech giant’s shareholders agreed to reshape its shareholding structure, according to a statement released by the company on Saturday.

    After the adjustment, Ma’s voting rights will fall to 6.2%, according to the statement and CNN calculations.

    Before the restructure, Ma possessed more than 50% of voting rights at Ant via Hangzhou Yunbo and two other entities, according to its IPO prospectus filed with the exchanges in 2020.

    Ant added in the statement that the voting rights adjustment, a move to make the company’s shareholder structure “more transparent and diversified,” will not result in any change to the economic interests of any shareholders.

    Ant said its 10 major shareholders, including Ma, had agreed to no longer act in concert when exercising their voting rights, and would only vote independently, and thus no shareholder would have “sole or joint control over Ant Group.”

    The voting rights overhaul came after Chinese regulators pulled the plug on Ant’s $37 billion IPO in November 2020, and ordered the company to restructure its business.

    As part of the company’s restructuring, Ant’s consumer finance unit applied for an expansion of its registered capital from $1.2 billion to $2.7 billion. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently approved the application, according to a government notice issued late last week.

    After the fund-raising drive, Ant will control half of its key consumer finance unit, while an entity controlled by the Hangzhou city government will own a 10% stake. Hangzhou is where Alibaba and Ant have been headquartered since their inceptions.

    Ant Group is a fintech affiliate of Alibaba, both of which were founded by Ma.

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  • America capped off an extraordinary year for job growth, adding 223,000 positions in December | CNN Business

    America capped off an extraordinary year for job growth, adding 223,000 positions in December | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    The US economy added 223,000 jobs in December, according to the monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, capping a year of extraordinary job growth and marking the second-best year for the labor market in records that go back to 1939.

    The unemployment rate fell back to a record low of 3.5% from a revised 3.6% in November.

    Economists were expecting 200,000 job gains for the last month of the year, according to Refinitiv. December’s job total is lower than the downwardly revised 256,000 jobs added in November.

    Including last month’s gains, which are subject to revision, the economy added about 4.5 million jobs in 2022. That’s the second-highest-ever total, after the 6.7 million jobs added in 2021 — a boomerang from 2020’s 9.3 million job losses.

    The labor market slowed in 2022, compared to the previous year’s tear. December’s jobs total represents the lowest monthly gains in two years.

    Those latest gains come following months of jumbo interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve in its attempt to cool off the economy after inflation last year hit its highest level since the 1980s. Those efforts have, so far, remained mostly elusive.

    That means the Fed is entering 2023 looking for a considerably softer and looser labor market — notably, increased labor participation, a better alignment of job seekers to open positions, and lower levels of wage growth.

    “This is about the best report one could hope for, given a still very hot US labor market,” said Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist for RSM US.

    Wall Street responded positively to Friday’s jobs data, with the Dow rising by almost 500 points by mid-morning — mostly a reaction to the slower pace of wage growth. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% over the previous month and 4.6% annually. That’s compared to 0.4% month-on-month growth in November and 4.8% annual growth.

    The December report showed that the labor force participation rate, an estimation of the active workforce and people looking for work, ticked up to 62.3% from 62.2%.

    Labor force participation rates have been on a decline — largely due to demographic changes and aging Baby Boomers — since hitting a high of 67.3% in early 2000, and had fallen to 63.3% in the month before the onset of the pandemic. The participation rate has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, vexing economists and the Fed, while also contributing to an imbalance of worker supply and demand.

    “The labor market is moving in the right direction for the Federal Reserve, according to the December employment report, but is not there yet,” Gus Faucher, senior economist for PNC Financial services said in a statement. “Job growth is slowing to a more sustainable pace, and wage growth is softening as demand in the job market slackens somewhat.”

    However, with job growth well above pre-pandemic levels, when job gains averaged 164,000 in 2019, and the unemployment rate returning to a 50-year low, there is little indication that there will be enough of a boost in the labor force to help cool off the job market, he said.

    Some of the largest monthly gains were in industries such as leisure and hospitality, health care, and accommodation and food services, which all were hit hard during the pandemic. There were also notable monthly job losses in technology and interest-rate-sensitive sectors that surged during the pandemic and are now rebalancing as consumers shift spending toward services.

    Industries such as information, finance and professional and business services, shed jobs between November and December.

    The losses seen in areas such as professional and business services are likely an effect of the waves of mass layoffs hitting the tech industry, said Ken Kim, a senior economist at KPMG.

    “We are seeing a little bit of spread to other areas,” he said.

    In addition to Friday’s strong jobs numbers, several other pieces of jobs data released this week continue to reflect a healthy labor market. Wednesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that the number of available jobs remained steady at 10.5 million in November. It also showed that quits, layoffs and hires didn’t really show any major signs of cooling that month.

    ADP’s private-sector employment report on Thursday also showed a robust labor market, with 235,000 jobs added in the private sector during December, well exceeding expectations of 150,000.

    And Thursday’s weekly jobless claims fell by 21,000 to 204,000 for the week ending November 26, while continuing claims decreased to 1.69 million from 1.72 million to 1.61 million.

    —CNN’s Matt Egan contributed to this report.

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  • A Wall Street Journal reporter was handcuffed by police while standing outside a Chase Bank. The newspaper is demanding answers | CNN Business

    A Wall Street Journal reporter was handcuffed by police while standing outside a Chase Bank. The newspaper is demanding answers | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    The Wall Street Journal is demanding answers from the Phoenix Police Department after an officer detained and handcuffed one of its reporters outside a Chase Bank — an incident that press freedom advocates say raises First Amendment concerns and mirrors a larger, growing hostility from local law enforcement toward journalists across the country.

    The incident between The Journal reporter Dion Rabouin and the Phoenix officer occurred in late November, but just became public his week after ABC affiliate KNXV reported on the matter. In a statement, The Journal said that it is “deeply concerned” with how its reporter was treated and has asked the Phoenix Police Department to conduct an investigation.

    “No journalist should ever be detained simply for exercising their First Amendment rights,” The Journal said.

    A version of this article first appeared in the “Reliable Sources” newsletter. Sign up here for the daily digest chronicling the evolving media landscape

    In response, the Phoenix Police Department — which is being probed by the Department of Justice to determine whether its officers retaliate against people “for conduct protected by the First Amendment” — stressed to me that the incident occurred on private property, but that the department had nonetheless shared concerns raised by the paper with the Professional Standards Bureau andthat an investigation is underway.

    At the crux of this particular matter is a rather innocent act of journalism. While visiting family in Arizona for the Thanksgiving holiday, Rabouin attempted to interview passersby on a sidewalk outside a Chase branch for an ongoing story about savings accounts, he told the Phoenix affiliate.

    Representatives from the bank approached him and asked what he was doing and Rabouin said he identified himself as a journalist. Rabouin said he was never asked to leave, but an officer soon arrived on the scene.

    Rabouin said he volunteered to simply stop reporting from the scene, but video captured by a bystander shows the responding officer handcuff him, put him in the back of a police vehicle, and even threaten to shove him in if he did not comply. The video shows Rabouin repeatedly identified himself as a reporter for The Journal, but the officer did not appear to care. The bystander who began recording the incident was also threatened with arrest.

    Ultimately, after about 15 minutes, when other officers showed up, Rabouin was allowed to walk free. A representative for Chase told me Thursday that the bank did apologize to Rabouin over the incident. But the local police department has thus far refrained from doing so.

    In a letter dated December 7 from Journal Editor-In-Chief Matt Murray to Phoenix Police Department Interim Chief Michael Sullivan, the editor described the officer’s conduct as “offensive to civil liberties,” and demanded to know what steps the department will take to “ensure that neither Mr. Rabouin nor any other journalist is again subjected to such conduct.” The Journal told me Thursday that Murray has not received a response from Sullivan.

    For press freedom advocates, the incident is representative of countless others that take place around the US each year. According to the US Press Freedom Tracker, at least 218 journalists have been arrested in the country since 2020.

    Bruce Brown, the executive director of the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press, told me in a statement that “the alarming number of incidents we’ve seen over the last several years where police have detained, arrested, or assaulted journalists who were doing their jobs threatens to chill this kind of essential newsgathering.”

    Brown added, “It’s time for the law enforcement community to hold itself accountable for its actions. The Phoenix Police Department can start now.”

    The Committee to Protect Journalists has also sounded the alarm over the incident. Katherine Jacobsen, the organization’s US and Canada program director, told me the detention of Rabouin “highlights a very real threat faced by reporters – especially local reporters – across the country.” Jacobsen went on to say that it is “disheartening to see acts of hostility toward journalists working in the United States.”

    Through a spokesperson, Rabouin declined to comment to me on Thursday. But he did post one tweet about the matter.

    “Thanks to everyone who has reached out to offer support,” Rabouin wrote. “We’re hoping to hear back from the chief or someone at the department soon.”

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  • Chaos in Congress sends an ominous signal to Wall Street | CNN Business

    Chaos in Congress sends an ominous signal to Wall Street | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Many on Wall Street cheered last fall when the midterm elections ushered in a return of divided government in Washington.

    The old mantra is that gridlock is good because it means neither political party can mess things up.

    But the historic dysfunction playing out in Congress this week is a reminder that you should be careful what you wish for. While gridlock might be good for markets and the economy, complete paralysis is bad because, every so often, government needs to get stuff done.

    House Republicans’ inability to pick a speaker on the first ballot (or second or third) for the first time in a century raises an ominous question: If lawmakers can’t pick a speaker, how can they tackle truly thorny issues like raising the debt ceiling or responding to a potential recession?

    “We’re watching a slow-moving trainwreck collide with a dumpster fire,” Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG, told CNN in a phone interview. “This is a clear indication we will have dysfunction for the entirety of this Congress, which heightens the risk around must-act deadlines such as the debt ceiling.”

    One New York Stock Exchange trader, a self-described conservative, told CNN on Tuesday the situation in the House is “disturbing” because it suggests lawmakers will struggle to get even more important things done.

    “This is a joke. The party can’t get its [stuff] together. It’s a disgrace,” said the trader, who requested anonymity to discuss the situation candidly.

    Even if Republicans eventually coalesce around Rep. Kevin McCarthy or a consensus candidate for speaker, the past few days have made plain to investors, economists and the public just how ungovernable the GOP majority in the House appears to be.

    “This is not gridlock so much as a rudderless ship without a captain,” Chris Krueger of Cowen Washington Research Group wrote in a note titled, “Burning down the House: Speaker vote opening act for 2 years of tail risk.”

    Krueger said the 4,000-page spending bill passed by Congress last month removed “a lot of the sharp objects” that could harm the economy.

    But lawmakers did not agree to tackle the debt ceiling, the borrowing limit that must be raised to avoid a calamitous US debt default.

    It’s not hard to imagine the ungovernable GOP majority clashing with Democrats and the White House this summer and fall over the debt ceiling — with the entire world economy hanging in the balance.

    Even before the House speaker stalemate, Goldman Sachs warned late last year that 2023 could bring the scariest debt ceiling fight since that infamous 2011 episode that cost America its perfect AAA credit score.

    In the past, brinksmanship over the debt ceiling eventually gave way to a compromise, though often not until significant pressure was applied by business leaders, financial markets — or both.

    It’s not clear how a debate over the debt ceiling will play out this time though, given the narrowly divided Congress and skepticism from Republicans about corporate America.

    “Our concern is that an increasingly populist GOP is less tied to big business influence, while a narrow majority amplifies their influence,” Benjamin Salisbury, director of research at Height Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.

    Of course, the “House of Cards”-style drama playing out in Congress is not the most pressing issue facing the economy and investors right now.

    The biggest questions concern whether the US economy is about to stumble into a recession (or a “slowcession,” if you ask Moody’s) and how long the Federal Reserve will keep up its fight against inflation.

    Later this week, on Friday, investors will be laser-focused not on McCarthy’s fate but on the monthly jobs report and what it says about efforts to cool down the labor market.

    Andrew Frankel, co-president of Stuart Frankel, dismissed the House speaker race as a “big, fat nothing-burger” for the market and said it was “just noise.”

    “It’s all about the Fed,” Frankel said.

    And yet the stalemate in the House underscores how hard it will be for lawmakers to aggressively respond to a potential recession or another crisis in the next two years.

    Although there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic about a soft landing, former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan warns a recession is still the most likely outcome.

    Greenspan, senior economic adviser at Advisors Capital Management, said in a discussion posted online that inflation will not cool enough to avoid “at least a mild recession” induced by the Fed.

    “We may have a brief period of calm on the inflation front, but I think it will be too little too late,” Greenspan said.

    If there is a recession, the chaos in Washington suggests the economy may not be able to count on a timely rescue from Congress this time around.

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  • Inflation fears fade as geopolitical risks rise | CNN Business

    Inflation fears fade as geopolitical risks rise | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Inflation fears roiled the markets in 2022. Now, investors may have scarier things to worry about in 2023, according to a report from global research and consulting firm Eurasia Group. Most notable? Concerns about the increasingly chaotic geopolitical landscape.

    “Inflation shockwaves” still feature as one of Eurasia’s top political risks for 2023 in a new report.

    But perhaps surprisingly, inflation ranks fourth on the list, behind worries about a rogue Russia under the leadership of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power in China.

    Eurasia’s third biggest fear — the increased use of artificial intelligence technology to wreak havoc on the global economy — only adds to jitters about disruption from Russia and China. Eurasia called AI “a gift to autocrats.”

    Eurasia, led by political scientist and author Ian Bremmer, pointed out that Russia’s war with Ukraine may become an even bigger problem for the United States and Europe.

    “Nuclear saber-rattling by Moscow will intensify. Putin’s threats will become more explicit,” Eurasia said in its report. It is also concerned that “Kremlin-affiliated hackers will ramp up cyberattacks on Western firms and governments.”

    That could mean attempts to disrupt oil pipelines, American and European satellites and other telecom and tech infrastructure, as well as further efforts to influence and sabotage global elections.

    “Moscow will step up its rogue behavior…with newly empowered influence operations targeting NATO countries,” Eurasia said in the report.

    Eurasia pointed to upcoming Polish elections in 2023 as “the most obvious target” but that other Western nations “will be vulnerable, too.”

    Autocracy in China is a potential economic and market headache as well.

    “Xi’s drive for state control will produce arbitrary decisions and policy volatility. China’s economy is in a fragile state after two years of harsh Covid-19 controls,” Eurasia noted, pointing out that “plummeting homebuyer and market sentiment have ground growth in the critical real estate sector to a halt, depleting local government revenue.”

    Eurasia added that the “backdrop of weakening global growth and deepening domestic challenges demands competent economic management from Beijing.” Instead, “the Chinese leadership is delivering opacity and unpredictability.”

    Chinese officials announced in October that they were delaying the release of key economic data, news that Eurasia said “was an ominous sign of things to come for global markets.”

    All of this uncertainty comes as China continues to face the growing Covid outbreak in the country. Eurasia fears that “if a severe new strain of Covid were to emerge,” it is “more likely that it would spread widely in China and beyond.

    “China would be unlikely to identify the new variant because of reduced testing and sequencing, to recognize more severe disease due to an overwhelmed health system, and to let news of a more severe variant get out given Xi’s track record on transparency,’ Eurasia said. “The world would have little or no time to prepare for a deadlier virus.”

    Meanwhile, Eurasia also is worried that Beijing “will deploy new technologies not only to tighten surveillance and control of its own society, but also to spread propaganda on social media and intimidate Chinese language communities overseas.”

    None of this is to suggest that worries about rising prices have dissipated.

    While inflation is listed as the fourth-biggest risk, Eurasia is still concerned that “rising interest rates and global recession will raise the risk of emerging-market crises.”

    Energy prices in particular will remain a sticking point for the global markets and economy as Eurasia notes that “higher oil prices will also increase frictions between OPEC+ and the United States.”

    And Eurasia also listed concerns about instability in Iran, shrinking water levels and economic inequality as major global challenges.

    Then there’s another new and distinctly 21st century worry: the rise of social media.

    “Gen Z has both the ability and the motivation to organize online to reshape corporate and public policy, making life harder for multinationals everywhere and disrupting politics with the click of a button,” Eurasia said, referring to the phenomenon as the “Tik Tok Boom.”

    Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced founder of bankrupt crypto exchange FTX, had another day in court on Tuesday.

    Bankman-Fried, more commonly referred to by his initials, SBF, plead “not guilty” to charges ranging from wire fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering to conspiracy by misusing customer funds.

    SBF appeared in a Manhattan court Tuesday after he was arrested last month in the Bahamas, extradited to the United States and then released by a judge on a $250 million bail package. But as my colleague Kara Scannell reports, the legal drama for SBF is only beginning. The judge set a trial date of October 2.

    Prosecutors allege that SBF was in charge of “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history.” They claim that he moved (or stole) billions of dollars from FTX customers to cover losses at the firm’s companion hedge fund, Alameda Research.

    The cryptocurrency world was already in turmoil before FTX imploded. The prices of bitcoin, ethereum and other digital coins all plummeted in 2022. But FTX and Alameda were each forced to file for bankruptcy in December after investors rushed to pull deposits.

    FTX was once valued at $32 billion, based on funding from private investors. The company was expected to be one of the hottest initial public offerings of 2023 as recently as the middle of last year. Not any more.

    Covid woes hurt Apple

    (AAPL)
    last year, as the world’s largest iPhone factory in China faced production disruptions since October due to the pandemic.

    But the giant campus, owned by top Apple supplier Foxconn, is reportedly now back at 90% production capacity following worker protests and Covid-related restrictions.

    Apple needs to get more of its latest smartphones into people’s pockets. Delays with the various iPhone 14 models have cost the company — and its investors — dearly.

    Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives estimated in November that disruptions in China led to about $1 billion a week in lost revenue.

    And analysts at UBS also said in November that wait times for the new iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max in the US were more than a month long due to supply chain woes. That couldn’t have come at a worse time since it was just before Christmas and other winter holidays.

    Apple’s stock had a tough 2022, like the rest of Big Tech, and it didn’t start off 2023 in a festive fashion either. Shares of Apple hit a new 52-week low Tuesday. Apple’s market value dipped below $2 trillion in the process. Just a year ago, Apple was the first company in the world to reach a $3 trillion market valuation.

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  • Big questions on student loan forgiveness loom in 2023 | CNN Politics

    Big questions on student loan forgiveness loom in 2023 | CNN Politics

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    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    Student loan borrowers are starting 2023 with a lot of uncertainty.

    The fate of President Joe Biden’s major student loan forgiveness program lies with the US Supreme Court, and it could be as late as summer before the justices rule on whether the policy can take effect.

    The pandemic-related pause on student loan payments remains in place. But a restart date is up in the air, dependent on when the Supreme Court rules on the forgiveness program.

    Meanwhile, significant changes are coming in July to the existing Public Service Loan Forgiveness program that aids government and nonprofit workers. And a new income-driven repayment plan that could lower payments for some federal student loan borrowers is in the works.

    The mired rollout of Biden’s forgiveness program has created confusion for borrowers. Here are some of the big questions surrounding student loans this year:

    In late February, the Supreme Court will hear arguments in two cases concerning Biden’s student loan forgiveness program, which could deliver up to $20,000 of debt relief for millions of low- and middle-income borrowers.

    A decision on whether the program is legal and can move forward is expected by June. Until then, it is on hold and no debt will be discharged under the program.

    Biden’s student loan forgiveness program has faced several legal challenges since the president announced the program in August. The Department of Education received about 26 million applications for debt relief by the time a federal district court judge struck down the program on November 10.

    Lawyers for the Biden administration say that Congress gave the secretary of education “expansive authority to alleviate the hardship that federal student loan recipients may suffer as a result of national emergencies,” like the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a memo from the Department of Justice.

    But litigants argue the Biden administration has overstepped its authority, and other recent Supreme Court decisions have ruled against aggressive executive agency actions. The justices curbed the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to set certain climate change regulations last year, for example, as well as limited the federal government’s power to implement a pandemic-related eviction moratorium in 2021 and mandate Covid-19 vaccinations in 2022.

    For the third consecutive time, federal student loan borrowers begin a new year without having to make payments on their loans thanks to a pandemic-related pause.

    Payments were set to resume in January, but the Biden administration extended the pause after its student loan forgiveness program was halted by federal courts. Officials had told borrowers debt relief would be granted before payments restarted.

    The payment pause will now last until 60 days after litigation over Biden’s student loan forgiveness program is resolved. If the program has not been implemented and the litigation has not been resolved by June 30, payments will resume 60 days after that.

    Borrower balances have effectively been frozen since March 2020, with no payments required on most federal student loans. During this time, interest has stopped adding up and collections on defaulted debt have also been on hold.

    For some borrowers, the pause on payments delivers an even bigger benefit than Biden’s forgiveness program ever could.

    The yearslong pause cost the government $155 billion through the end of 2022, according to an estimate from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

    The Public Service Loan Forgiveness program allows certain government and nonprofit employees to seek federal student loan forgiveness after making 10 years of qualifying payments – but it has been plagued with implementation problems for years.

    A yearlong waiver that expanded eligibility for the PSLF program expired on October 31, but some of those temporary changes will be made permanent starting in July.

    Under the new rules, borrowers will be able to receive credit toward PSLF on payments that are made late, in installments or in a lump sum. Prior rules only counted a payment as eligible if it was made in full within 15 days of its due date.

    Also, time spent in certain periods of deferment or forbearance will count toward PSLF. These periods include deferments for cancer treatment, military service, economic hardship and time served in AmeriCorps and the National Guard.

    Starting in July, borrowers will receive some credit for past payments when they consolidate older loans into federal Direct Loans in order to qualify for the program. Borrowers previously lost all progress toward forgiveness when they consolidated. After July, they will receive a weighted average of existing qualifying payments toward PSLF.

    The new rules will also simplify the criteria to meet the requirement that a borrower be a full-time employee in a public sector job. The new standard will consider full-time employment at 30 hours a week. In particular, the change will help adjunct faculty at public colleges qualify for the program.

    The Biden administration has proposed a new income-driven repayment plan that is intended to make payments more manageable for borrowers, though it’s unclear when it could take effect.

    Several income-driven repayment plans already exist for federal student loan borrowers, but the new proposal could offer more favorable terms.

    The new rule is expected to cap payments at 5% of a borrower’s discretionary income, down from 10% that is offered in most current income-driven plans, as well as reduce the amount of income that is considered discretionary. It would also forgive remaining balances after 10 years of repayment, instead of 20 or 25 years, as well as cover the borrower’s unpaid monthly interest.

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  • Get ready for a ‘slowcession’ in 2023, Moody’s says | CNN Business

    Get ready for a ‘slowcession’ in 2023, Moody’s says | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Many CEOs, investors and consumers are worried about a recession in 2023. But Moody’s Analytics says the more likely scenario is a “slowcession,” where growth grinds to a near halt but a full economic downturn is narrowly avoided.

    “Under almost any scenario, the economy is set to have a difficult 2023,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi wrote in a report on Tuesday. “But inflation is quickly moderating, and the economy’s fundamentals are sound. With a bit of luck and some reasonably deft policymaking by the Fed, the economy should avoid an outright downturn.”

    Moody’s said in a slowcession — a phrase coined by Zandi’s colleague Cristian deRitis — economic growth “comes to a near standstill but never slips into reverse.” Unemployment would rise, but not spike.

    Given all the recent worries about the economy, such a slowcession would come as a relief to many.

    Recession fears helped make 2022 the worst year for US stocks since 2008. In fact, the S&P 500’s 19.4% drop last year was its fourth-largest drop since 1945, according to CFRA Research.

    With the Federal Reserve slamming the brakes on the US economy to snuff out inflation, business leaders and CEOs have grown increasingly confident about a 2023 recession.

    Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan recently told CNN’s Poppy Harlow that a “mild” recession is likely. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see a 70% chance of a recession in 2023.

    Moody’s, whose research is frequently cited by the White House, is not dismissing the risk of a downturn, warning that a recession remains a “serious threat” and saying the economy is “especially vulnerable” to a shock. The firm also expects unemployment will tick up to 4.2% by late 2023 from the current reading of 3.7%.

    There is also a real risk of a self-fulfilling prophecy, where nervous business owners and consumers hunker down so much that they cause the very recession they fear.

    Yet there are valid reasons to be cautiously optimistic about what lies ahead.

    The jobs market remains historically strong, inflation is cooling, real wages are heating up, gas prices have plunged and the Fed could be preparing to pause its rate-hiking campaign.

    Last week, Goldman Sachs said it still believes the US economy will avoid a recession and instead move towards a “soft landing” where inflation moderates but growth continues.

    In addition to cooling inflation, Moody’s expressed optimism about the ability of consumers to weather the storm in 2023.

    “Shoppers are the firewall between an economy in recession and an economy that skirts a downturn,” Zandi wrote. “While the firewall is sure to come under pressure, particularly as financially hard-pressed low-income households struggle, it should continue to hold.”

    Zandi also pointed to relatively strong fundamentals in the US economy, including profitable businesses, healthy consumer balance sheets and a banking system that is “on about as strong financial ground as it has ever been.”

    The Moody’s economist noted the economy is not plagued by troubling imbalances that were glaring before prior recessions, such as overbuilt real estate markets or massive asset bubbles.

    “It is important not to be Pollyannish, but it also important not to convince ourselves that a recession is inevitable,” Zandi wrote. “It is not.”

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  • Global markets struggle to put last year’s misery behind them | CNN Business

    Global markets struggle to put last year’s misery behind them | CNN Business

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    European and Asian stocks pushed higher on the first major trading day of 2023 as investors try to look beyond a gloomy outlook for the world economy, China’s worst Covid outbreak and stubbornly high inflation in Europe.

    But after a positive start, Wall Street succumbed to fear again. The S&P 500 gained 0.4% in early trading Tuesday, while the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.8%. By midday, however, both indexes were trading weaker, down 0.3% and 1.2% respectively.

    Shares of Tesla

    (TSLA)
    plunged more than 13% after the electric car giant reported weaker than expected global sales for the fourth quarter. Apple sank 3.8%, bringing its market cap to $2 trillion. An impressive number, for sure, but about $1 trillion less than its valuation at this time last year.

    Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 1.2% by 12.10 p.m. ET, off earlier highs but extending strong gains posted Monday when Chinese and US markets were closed. Germany’s DAX rose 0.8%, while France’s CAC gained 0.4%.

    US markets are waiting for the first major economic news of the year, due later this week. A key report on manufacturing, new data on labor market openings and the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting are due out Wednesday. The jobs report for December will be released Friday.

    Investors in Europe were buoyed by survey data, released Monday, showing that supply chain and inflation pressures were easing slightly for manufacturers in the economies that use the euro currency.

    Shortages of parts in Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, have also abated, according to data released by the Institute for Economic Research (Ifo) on Tuesday. Inflation in the country continues to trend downwards. Data published Tuesday by the German Federal Statistics Office showed that consumer prices rose 8.6% in December, compared with 10% the previous month, and 10.4% in October.

    London’s FTSE 100 index clocked up gains of 2.3% in morning trading, before easing slightly to stand 1.4% higher.

    Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank, struck a cautiously optimistic note about the year ahead.

    “Unless a major new geopolitical shock intervenes, the new year could be far less unsettled than 2022. Especially for Europe, the outlook continues to become substantially less negative,” he wrote in note Tuesday.

    In Asia, markets ended the day firmly in positive territory, recovering from early losses.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped by as much as 2% after a closely watched private survey showed China’s economy ended last year with a slump in factory activity. But the index soon reversed course to gain 1.8% by the close, as hopes for the reopening of the city’s border with mainland China on January 8 boosted stocks.

    Stocks in mainland China also had a choppy first-day trading. The Shanghai Composite opened lower, but then clawed back losses to close 0.9% higher.

    Tuesday’s market gains provide cheery news for investors after a rollercoaster 2022 that saw $33 trillion wiped off global equity markets.

    Many suffered deep losses in 2022 as central banks hiked interest rates at an unprecedented clip in a bid to control surging inflation.

    The S&P 500 lost 19.4% over the past 12 months — its worst year since 2008 — despite hitting an all-time high last January. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index fell 12.9%, its steepest annual loss since 2018. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 15.5%, its weakest performance since 2011.

    Predicting the state of markets is notoriously tricky — and often downright wrong — but it looks likely that many of last year’s economic headwinds will stick around, and some could get even worse.

    Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund, warned in an interview with CBS that aired on Sunday that 2023 will be tougher on the global economy than 2022 was.

    Georgieva said that the world’s three biggest economies, the United States, the European Union and China, are all “slowing down simultaneously,” and the IMF expected “one third of the world economy to be in recession” this year.

    “Almost everyone is going into 2023 with a healthy dose of trepidation,” Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, said in a Tuesday note.

    “The outlook is understandably gloomy and will remain so unless something significant changes, either on the war in Ukraine or inflation,” he added.

    Investors can expect the world’s central banks to continue hiking interest rates to tame historic levels of inflation, despite signs that price rises globally have started to cool, in part due to a drop in energy prices.

    Both the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve have said they plan to continue to raise the cost of borrowing in the near term, a move that typically hurts companies’ profits — and their investors.

    China is also unpredictable. While investors are broadly happy that the country ditched its strict zero-Covid policy last month — promising to lift demand across the world’s second-biggest economy — rocketing numbers of cases and a potential contraction in the early part of 2023 could limit gains.

    — Paul LaMonica, Julia Horowitz and Laura He contributed reporting.

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  • ‘We’re trapped’: Britons in homes with unsafe cladding see no way out as living costs soar | CNN

    ‘We’re trapped’: Britons in homes with unsafe cladding see no way out as living costs soar | CNN

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    In May 2017, Sophie Bichener did what many in their twenties are unable to do: buy a home. She paid around £230,000 (around $295,000 at the time) for her two-bedroom apartment in a high-rise building in a town north of London, where a train could get her to work in the capital in less than half an hour. She had her foot on the first rung of Britain’s housing ladder, an increasingly difficult feat, and it felt like the only way was up.

    A month later, Bichener woke up to news that would change her life. A fire had broken out at a similar block to hers: the 24-story Grenfell Tower in west London, which was encased in flammable cladding. The material meant to keep out the wind and rain went up like a matchstick. The fire killed 72 people and left an entire community homeless and heartbroken. The ordeal sent Bichener into a panic. Was her building also at risk, she wondered?

    The burned remains of Grenfell stood uncovered for months, looming over one of London’s richest boroughs. It became a monument that to many symbolized the disastrous effects of austerity – the decade-long policy of cost-cutting embarked on by the Conservatives in response to the financial crisis of 2008. The tragedy was made all the more stark by its surroundings: the public housing block is just a five-minute walk from Kensington properties worth tens of millions of pounds. Look one way: scarcely imaginable wealth. The other: a hulking symbol of a broken and divided Britain.

    In the wake of the fire, there was a wave of promises from politicians that things would change – that building safety would be improved, social housing reformed, and that responsibility would be taken for the government agenda of public spending cuts, deregulation and privatization that acted as kindling for the tragedy that unfolded.

    But in the five years since, Britons living in tower blocks with unsafe cladding have found themselves stuck in a perpetual state of limbo. CNN spoke with 10 people, who all say they are paralyzed by fear that their buildings could catch fire at any moment, and crippled by costs thrust upon them to fix safety defects that were not their fault – despite the government promising they would not have to “pay a penny.”

    Now, their problems are compounded by a fresh disaster: a spiraling cost-of-living crisis. As energy prices and inflation soar, residents like Bichener are facing an impossible situation, burdened not only by sky-high bills but also the eye-watering expense of remediating properties that now feel more like prisons than homes.

    Residents told CNN they were living in a perpetual state of anxiety, inundated by text alerts informing them of mounting bills and waiting on tenterhooks for the next buzz of their phone. Some said their building insurance had quadrupled since they moved in, while others were burdened by ballooning service charges – hundreds of pounds a month for safety fixes that hadn’t been started.

    Many said they had left their mortgages on variable rates in the hopes they could eventually sell their apartments, but after the Bank of England hiked interest rates this fall their repayments had become untenable, with monthly payments almost doubling in some cases. Paired with the rising costs of living – more expensive energy, fuel and food – the residents CNN spoke with said they are finding themselves several thousand pounds a year poorer.

    When Bichener bought her flat in Vista Tower in Stevenage, a 16-story office block built in 1965 and converted into residential housing in 2016, there was “no mention” of fire hazards, she said. “When Grenfell happened we spoke to our local council just to double-check all the buildings in the town. We asked the management agent and freeholder [the owner of the apartment building and land] if they have any concerns. At that point, everyone was saying no, all these buildings are good,” Bichener told CNN.

    Vista Tower, right, in Stevenage. Britons living in unsafe buildings remain haunted by the memory of Grenfell.

    But there were soon signs of trouble. The developer that built the block put itself into liquidation – the first “red flag,” Bichener said. Emails to the freeholder went unanswered – the second. Then confirmation: In 2019, two years after Grenfell, the management agent reported that the building was unsafe. An inspection had found an array of hazards not previously listed.

    After the revelations, a group of former Grenfell residents came to visit Vista Tower to raise awareness about the nationwide cladding crisis. Bichener said that one man who had lost a family member in the Grenfell fire told her he was struck by the similarities: “He said he went cold.”

    In November 2020, she was hit with a life-changing bill from the freeholder. “The whole project, all of the remediation, came to about £15 million.” Split between the leaseholders, it worked out to be about £208,000 per flat.

    That bill – almost the same price she initially paid for the flat – has hung over Bichener’s head since. The government has offered little help and the political chaos in Britain has made matters worse. There have been seven housing secretaries in the five years since Grenfell, as the governing Conservative Party remains embroiled in internal strife. Some have begun to make progress – including threatening legal action to get the company that owns Vista Tower to pay up rather than passing the cost on to the residents – only to find themselves out of the job weeks later.

    “I can’t afford to live in this building anymore. I don’t want to pay the service charge, I don’t want to pay all of the horrific leaseholder costs. I just don’t want it. But I can’t get out.”

    Sophie Bichener

    Meanwhile, Bichener is still waiting for her life to get back on track. She is unable to sell, because banks are unwilling to lend against the property, and, in recent months, her mortgage, insurance and service charge have all shot up. The crippling costs meant she delayed getting married and has put off having children.

    “I can’t afford to live in this building anymore. I don’t want to pay the service charge, I don’t want to pay all of the horrific leaseholder costs. I just don’t want it. But I can’t get out,” Bichener, now 30 years old, said. “I’m trapped.”

    And she’s not alone. Hundreds of thousands of people are believed to be in the same boat, but the UK government has failed to commission a full audit, which means the scale of the impact is unclear. Peter Apps, deputy editor at Inside Housing, who has covered the story meticulously over the past five years, estimates there are likely more than 600,000 people in affected tall buildings and millions more in medium-rise towers – those between five and 10 stories. CNN has been unable to verify the precise number.

    The problems playing out now are the result of decades of poor policy choices, according to Apps. His new book detailing the Grenfell tragedy and subsequent inquiry, “Show Me the Bodies,” claims the UK “let Grenfell happen” through a combination of “deregulation, corporate greed and institutional indifference.”

    Evidence presented to the Grenfell Tower Inquiry found that the local council, which managed the building, had made a £300,000 ($389,400) saving by switching higher quality zinc cladding to a cheaper aluminum composite material (ACM). This meant for an additional £2,300 ($3,000) per flat, the fire might have been prevented.

    Any regulations demanding developers use better quality materials were seen as being “anti-business,” Apps told CNN. Developers did not even have to use qualified fire safety inspectors to carry out checks on their buildings – just individuals the developers themselves deemed to be “competent.”

    Five years on, the Grenfell victims' families are still waiting for answers -- and thousands are waiting for their buildings to be made safe.

    So extensive was the deregulation that the problems were not confined just to high-rise tower blocks – or even to cladding. Instead, many low-rise buildings suffer from problems ranging from poor fire cavities to flammable insulation.

    “The cladding wasn’t the issue at all,” said Jennifer Frame, a 44-year-old travel industry analyst, who lived in Richmond House in south-west London. “It was the fact that it was a timber frame building, with a cavity between that and the cladding,” she added, a safety defect that was confirmed by an inspection report.

    One night in September 2019, a fire broke out in a flat in Richmond House. Rather than being contained in one room, the cavity acted “like a chimney,” Frame said. An independent report commissioned by the building owner, Metropolitan Thames Valley Housing Association, and included in written evidence submitted to the UK parliament by residents, revealed that the cavity barriers were either “defective” or “entirely missing” at Richmond House, allowing the fire to spread “almost unhindered” through the 23-flat block.

    “The use of materials such as ACM within cladding systems has rightly attracted a lot of attention since Grenfell. It is now clear that there is a much wider failure by construction companies,” the residents said in their submission.

    Cladding is meant to keep buildings dry and warm, but lax regulations have resulted in flammable materials being used in many cases.

    Sixty residents lost their homes that night. Three years later, Frame is still living in temporary accommodation in the same borough of London, while paying the mortgage for her property which no longer exists. Perversely, she said she feels lucky that it’s only the mortgage – and not the monumental cost of remediations – that she’s on the hook for.

    “I do consider myself – for lack of a better word – one of the lucky ones, as we don’t have the threat of bankruptcy hanging over our head any more,” she said.

    CNN reached out for comment to the developer of Richmond House, Berkeley Group, but did not receive a reply. Berkeley Group has previously denied liability.

    Years of delay and disputes over who should cover the cost, combined with the sheer stress of living in unsafe buildings, have weighed heavily on residents.

    Bichener moved back to her parents’ house in 2020. “I just couldn’t face being there,” she said. “I ended up on anti-anxiety and anti-depression medication just from being in those four walls in a pandemic, in a dangerous home, with a life-changing sum of money that would potentially bankrupt me over my head.”

    At a rally for the End Our Cladding Scandal campaign, she recalled being with a group of people her age and how they all broke down in tears. “They’re the only people who understand the situation you’re in. Everyone’s having huge crises over this.”

    Their options are limited. Most can’t sell their properties, since banks won’t offer mortgages against them. Even if banks were to reverse this policy, it is unclear whether there would be a demand for them, given the spiraling costs of borrowing. According to the residents CNN spoke with, a scant few have been able to sell to cash buyers – but often at a 60-80% loss.

    Some have become “resentful landlords,” a term used by residents who are unable to sell their properties, but are so desperate to move out that they rent it out cheaply to others. Lilli Houghton, 30, rents out her flat in Leeds, a city in the north of England, at a loss to a new tenant. She still pays the service charge for her flat, while also renting a new place elsewhere.

    Most have no choice but to wait – but five years has felt like an eternity. When Zoe Bartley, a 29-year-old lawyer, bought her one-bedroom apartment in Chelmsford, a city in Essex, she thought she’d sell it within a few years to move into a family home.

    But she hasn’t been able to sell. She found a buyer in January 2020 – but their mortgage was declined after an inspection of the building found a number of fire safety defects.

    Bartley’s 15-month-old son still sleeps in her bedroom. When her two stepchildren come to stay, “they have to sleep in the living room,” she said. “When they were four and five and I’d just started dating their dad,” they were excited to have sleepovers in the living room. Now they’re nine and 10, “it’s just pathetic,” Bartley said.

    Bartley said she struggles to sleep knowing that a fire could break out at night. Others who spoke to CNN say they have trained their children on what to do when the alarms go off.

    Earlier this year, residents in unsafe buildings began to see some fledgling signs of progress. In a letter to developers, the then-housing secretary, Michael Gove, said it was “neither fair nor decent that innocent leaseholders … should be landed with bills they cannot afford to fix problems they did not cause.” He set out a plan to work with the industry to find a solution.

    First, he gave developers two months “to agree to a plan of action to fund remediation costs,” estimated at £4 billion (around $5.4 billion). That deadline passed with no agreement reached.

    To force developers’ hands, the Building Safety Act was passed into law in April, which requires the fire safety defects in all buildings above 11 meters to be fixed and created a fund to help cover the costs. The act implemented a “waterfall” system: Developers would be expected to pay first, but, if they are unable to, then the cost would fall to the building owners. If they are also unable to pay, only then would the cost fall to the leaseholders. Leaseholders’ costs were capped at £10,000 ($11,400), or £15,000 ($17,000) in London, for those who met certain criteria. The government asked 53 companies to sign this pledge; many did.

    For many residents, this came as a relief. They had faced life-changing bills for years, but the cap meant they wouldn’t be totally wiped out. It seemed the worst of their worries were over.

    But there was a problem: The pledge made by developers wasn’t legally binding. Even though the government has made money available for remediation, no mechanism has yet forced any developers to make use of it.

    Bichener still doesn't know when remediation work on Vista Tower will begin, how long it will take, or who will pay for it.

    One resident explained to CNN: “Prior to Michael Gove, your building owner could give you a bill to replace the cladding. They’re now not able to do that anymore, but that doesn’t mean your building gets fixed.”

    The government tried again. In July it published contracts to turn the “pledge into legally binding undertakings.” If developers signed the contract, this would commit them to remediating their buildings. Still, there was nothing obliging the developers to sign these contracts – and so none did.

    In October, Vista Tower – where Bichener lives – came under scrutiny. Then-Housing Secretary Simon Clarke set a 21-day deadline for Grey GR, the owner of the building, to commit to fixing it. “The lives of over 100 people living in Vista Tower have been put on hold,” Clarke said. “Enough is enough.” Bichener stressed her building was just one among thousands in need of remediation, but welcomed this as a “step in the right direction.”

    But when that deadline came, Clarke was already out of the job. He had been appointed by former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, but after her six-week premiership came to an end, Clarke was replaced in the subsequent reshuffle. The deadline passed without Grey GR making any commitment.

    Gove was reappointed by new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as Clarke’s successor in October. In response to questions from CNN, the UK’s Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) confirmed that the government has started formal proceedings against Grey GR.

    “We are finalizing the legally binding contracts that developers will sign to fix their unsafe buildings, and expect them to do so very soon,” a DLUHC spokesperson said in a statement.

    “I think the ‘who’s paying’ question will drag on for many years. That might be through court cases and tribunals. But I don’t see how it will be resolved.”

    Sophie Bichener

    Grey GR told CNN that it was “absolutely committed to carrying out the remediation works required,” but that they had not started yet due to obstacles in receiving government funds.

    “Issues with gaining access to [the Building Safety Fund], created by Government, have been, and remain, the fundamental roadblock to progress,” Grey GR said in a statement, adding that the security of residents was of the “utmost priority” and that it was taking steps to make buildings safer.

    But, according to Bichener, residents are no safer than they were five years ago. All that has changed is that, legally, they will no longer have to pay tens or hundreds of thousands of pounds to fix their buildings.

    That hasn’t stopped building owners from seeking funds from residents though. “The amount of £208,430.04 is outstanding in connection with [your] property,” read a letter sent to a resident of Vista Tower by the building owner in November. “We would appreciate your remittance within the next seven days.”

    In the meantime, life for the residents of these buildings goes on. Since speaking to CNN, Bichener got married. She and her husband are both paying off their own mortgages until she is able to sell her flat. For years they had been “stressed,” she said, asking “do we tie ourselves together and have these two properties?” But they decided they couldn’t put their lives on pause forever because of her Vista Tower nightmare.

    “I want to have left,” Bichener said of where she wants to be, a year from now. “The dream is that I no longer own that property and I am long gone and I never have to see it or visit it again.

    “But if I’m realistic, I think we’ll be in the same situation. I think the ‘who’s paying’ question will drag on for many years. That might be through court cases and tribunals. But I don’t see how it will be resolved.”

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  • The year that brought Silicon Valley back down to earth | CNN Business

    The year that brought Silicon Valley back down to earth | CNN Business

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    CNN
     — 

    On the first trading day of 2022, Apple hit a new milestone for the tech industry: the iPhone maker became the first publicly traded company to hit a $3 trillion market cap, with Microsoft and Google not far behind. As eye-popping as that valuation was, there were headlines speculating about how long it would be before Apple and its rivals topped $5 trillion.

    The tech industry, already dominant, only seemed destined to grow even bigger at the start of this year. The spread of the Omicron variant suggested a continued pandemic-fueled demand for digital goods and services, which had buoyed many tech companies. Near 0% interest rates meant startups still had easy access to the funding that had fueled their high valuations and risky ventures.

    But the year is ending on a much different note. A perfect storm of factors have forced a dizzying reality check for the once high-flying tech sector, making it one of the biggest losers of 2022.

    Over the course of the year, pandemic-era demand for many tech tools shifted; inflation soared; interest rates rose and fears of a looming recession weighed on consumer and advertiser spending, the latter of which makes up the core business of many household names in tech.

    The result was a bloodbath unlike anything the tech industry has seen in the past decade. Tech stocks plunged, amid a broader market downturn. Tens of thousands of rank-and-file tech workers lost their livelihoods amid mass layoffs, both at tech giants like Amazon and Facebook-parent Meta as well as at smaller tech companies like Lyft, Peloton and Stripe. The crypto world all but imploded. And an entire industry known for burning cash on ambitious moonshots instead started shutting down projects and announcing cost-cutting efforts.

    Even the title of world’s richest man, which previously belonged to serial tech founder Elon Musk, ended up passing to Bernard Arnault, the chairman of French luxury goods giant LVMH, after Musk’s chaotic purchase of Twitter appeared to sour investors on his car company, Tesla.

    The sharp shift in sentiment not only removed the air of invincibility for the industry; it also exposed some of its underlying myths. For years, Silicon Valley has held up its founders as visionaries who can see far into the future. But suddenly, many of its most prominent founders had to admit a harsh truth: they couldn’t even predict two years ahead.

    As Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg put it in a memo to staff last month announcing the company would cut 11,000 employees: “Unfortunately, this did not play out the way I expected.”

    He was far from the only one in the industry caught off guard.

    When the pandemic upended the broader economy in early 2020, tech firms only seemed to grow bigger and more powerful as people were forced to live out their lives online. Facebook (now Meta) could afford to nearly double its headcount and make multi-billion-dollar bets on a future version of the internet dubbed the metaverse. Amazon similarly went on a hiring spree and doubled its fulfilment center footprint to meet the surge in online shopping demand.

    “At the start of Covid, the world rapidly moved online and the surge of e-commerce led to outsized revenue growth,” Zuckerberg wrote in his memo to staff last month. “Many people predicted this would be a permanent acceleration that would continue even after the pandemic ended. I did too, so I made the decision to significantly increase our investments.”

    Then the market shifted.

    “People are terrible at predicting the future, and we always think that what’s happening now is going to happen forever,” Angela Lee, a professor at Columbia Business School who teaches venture capital, leadership, and strategy courses, told CNN. “But the reality is that the pandemic was a black swan event, and none of us knew what would happen going forward.”

    One by one, the visionaries of Silicon Valley issued mea culpas. The founders of Stripe, Twitter and Facebook each took turns admitting they either grew their companies too quickly or were overly optimistic about pandemic-fueled growth in their sector.

    “We were much too optimistic about the internet economy’s near-term growth in 2022 and 2023 and underestimated both the likelihood and impact of a broader slowdown,” Patrick Collison, CEO of Stripe, wrote in a note to employees last month announcing 14% of the staff would be cut.

    It wasn’t only a shift in consumers living their lives offline again that hurt the industry. The tech sector was particularly pummeled by the impacts of rising interest rates this year. Silicon Valley as a whole is arguably more sensitive to interest rate hikes than other industries, as many tech companies rely on easy access to funding to pursue their ambitious projects, typically before even turning a profit.

    In a move to tame inflation, the Fed approved seven-straight rate hikes in 2022. Since the beginning of the year, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index shed more than 30% as of Dec. 21. By comparison, the Nasdaq soared more than 40% in 2020 and a further 20% in 2021. And the S&P 500’s Information Technology sector shed more than 28% this year through Dec. 21, considerably higher than the broader S&P 500’s fall of just 19% over that same period.

    Apple’s market cap now hovers just above $2 trillion. Amazon’s stock has shed some 50% year to date. And shares for Meta have been hit even harder, losing nearly two thirds of their value in 2022. Once a trillion-dollar business last year, Meta has since seen its market value drop below companies like Home Depot.

    The shift in sentiment for tech has also hit the next generation of companies that aspire to be household names.

    Global venture funding hit a nine quarter low of $74.5 billion in the third quarter of 2022, according to data from analytics firm CB Insights. This marked the largest quarterly percentage drop in a decade (34%), and a 58% decline from the investment peak reached in the fourth quarter of 2021.

    In another sign of how this played out in the startup world: more than two new unicorns (startups valued at $1 billion or more) were born on average per business day in 2021, according separate data from CB Insights. That rate dropped to a pace of less than one new unicorn for every other business day in the third quarter of 2022, per CB Insights’ most recent analysis, the lowest since the first quarter of 2020.

    Lee, who is also the founder of investing network 37 Angels, said when she met with tech founders this year, “I have said these words, which is, ‘I might have done this deal last year, but I am not going to do it now.’ And I’ve heard a lot of other people say that as well.”

    While the belt tightening might be painful for tech founders, Lee says she views it as a good thing for the tech industry overall. Many industry insiders have long said these sorts of corrections can help weed out some of the excess in the market and ensure more financially viable companies are the ones that survive.

    “Right now, there are like a lot of headlines that are just like, ‘The sky is falling, the end is near,’ and the way that I describe it is more of like a return to normalcy,” said Lee, noting that most charts tracking VC spending (from the number of mega-rounds to the number of IPOs) had a huge hump in 2020 and 2021 when interest rates were low, and now these charts are starting to look like how they did in 2019.

    “I would just call it like a ‘return to sanity,’ versus like, ‘the sky is falling,’” Lee said. “I do not think venture is cratering, or the tech industry is cratering as an industry.”

    But for now, at least, there appears to be no end in sight to the pain for Silicon Valley and those who work in it.

    In his own memo acknowledging job cuts at Amazon, CEO Andy Jassy said the layoffs at Amazon, reported to total some 10,000 roles, would continue into 2023. At a conference last month, he called the earlier hiring spree a “lesson” for everybody.

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  • Fed watch 2023: When will rate hikes slow down | CNN Business

    Fed watch 2023: When will rate hikes slow down | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    America’s central bank found itself in a glaring spotlight for much of this past year, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell wielded blunt tools of interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening to curb surging inflation.

    As 2022 draws to a close, inflation metrics show some of that may have worked: Consumer prices are cooling, home sales have ground to a halt, and some of America’s best-known companies have made plans to slow their roll and pull back on capital investment.

    The latest measure of inflation showed that the Consumer Price Index for November came in at 7.1%, down from the 40-year high of 9.1% hit in June; prices for used cars, lumber and gas — once poster children for the painfully steep price hikes — have come down; and housing prices and rents have also been on a downward trajectory.

    “This idea of peak inflation, which people have been talking about for most of the year, is starting to look like it’s valid,” said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. “It’s just how quickly does that come down?”

    In a matter of weeks, the Fed’s Act II gets underway.

    The Fed’s recently revised script calls for the federal funds rate, the central bank’s benchmark borrowing rate, to move higher, but at a slower pace than in the past several months.

    While the Fed has — finally — eked out some small victories in slowing the economy, after seven bumper rate hikes, the robust and historically tight labor market has remained a thorn in the central bank’s side. When the number of available jobs far outpaces those looking for work, wages can rise, which in turn could keep prices higher for longer.

    That means the Fed, with its “laser focus on the job market,” could be “continually hawkish” at the start of 2023, said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird.

    There are already signs that the labor market is softening: Quits and hires have edged downward, while layoffs have moved higher; continuing claims have grown to their highest level since February; and the number of jobs added each month has started to nudge slowly lower.

    However, a “structural labor shortage” remains a major headwind, Powell noted in December, attributing the lack of workers to early retirements, caregiving needs, Covid illnesses and deaths, and a plunge in net immigration.

    As such, employers are hesitant to lay people off, and other areas of the economy are showing such strength that those who are unemployed are able to get rehired quickly, Mayfield said.

    “This latent strength in the job market could be the reason that the Fed over-tightens,” he told CNN. “The rest of the economy, to us, is very clearly signaling slowdown, imminent recession. And when you see the Fed revising their unemployment projections up, revising their GDP growth number down, it seems that they agree.”

    He added: “So, I would hope that they would take their own advice and pause fairly soon.”

    The December projections showed a more aggressive monetary policy tightening path, with the median forecast rising to a new interest rate peak of 5%-5.25%, up from 4.5%-4.75% in September. That would mean Fed officials expect to raise rates by half a percent more than they did three months ago, when the Fed’s economic predictions were last released.

    Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, from right, Lael Brainard, vice chair of the board of governors for the Federal Reserve System, and John Williams, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, during a break at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in Moran, Wyoming, on Aug. 26, 2022.

    Policymakers also projected that PCE inflation, the Fed’s favored price gauge, would remain far above its 2% target until at least 2025. Further projections showed souring expectations for the health of the US economy, with Fed officials now predicting that unemployment will rise to 4.6% by the end of 2023 and remain at that level through 2024. That’s 0.2 percentage points higher than the 4.4% rate they were expecting in September and significantly higher than the current 3.7% rate.

    Based on projections from Fed officials and other economists, the pathway has narrowed for the desired “soft landing” of reining in inflation while avoiding recession or significant layoffs.

    “It’s been pretty impressive how well the consumer has held up over the past 18 months, and not pulling the rug out from under the consumer is pretty much how you get to the soft landing,” Mayfield said.

    “I think it’s a really, really narrow path, and the Fed’s tone [during its December meeting] doesn’t give me a lot of optimism that they can navigate that without hitting a recession. … If a soft landing is avoiding a recession altogether, then I think that’s a pretty tough task. If it’s a milder recession than recent history, I think that’s still in the cards.”

    The Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank’s policymaking arm, holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. Over the course of two days, the 12-member group looks through economic data, assesses financial conditions and evaluates monetary policy actions that are announced to the public following the conclusion of its meeting on the second day, along with a press conference led by Chair Powell.

    Below are the meetings tentatively scheduled for 2023. Those with asterisks indicate the meeting with a Summary of Economic Projections, which includes the chart colloquially known as the “dot plot” that shows where each Fed member expects interest rates to land in the future.

    • January 31-February 1
    • March 21-22*
    • May 2-3
    • June 13-14*
    • July 25-26
    • September 19-20*
    • October 31-November 1
    • December 12-13*

    — CNN’s Nicole Goodkind contributed to this report.

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  • Gas prices had a wild ride this year, making 2023 tough to predict | CNN Business

    Gas prices had a wild ride this year, making 2023 tough to predict | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    US drivers have never seen a year quite like 2022.

    Wild price swings at the gas pump throughout the year make predicting prices for 2023 even more difficult.

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that it sparked on Russian oil sent the price of crude soaring in February at the beginning of the conflict. And even though relatively little Russian crude oil was ever exported to US refineries, the fact that oil prices are set on global commodity markets meant that US drivers were not spared a spike in gas prices.

    Prices were far more volatile throughout 2022 than they were in other recent years, both during and before the pandemic roiled oil markets.

    By June, the average US gas price crossed $5 a gallon for the first time ever, hitting a record $5.02 on June 14. But after that came a prolonged slide in gas prices, prompted by a number of factors, including the release of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, concerns about the possibility of a recession in both the US and global economies, and a surge in Covid cases that caused renewed lockdowns in Asia. By the end of the year, the national average price of a gallon of regular gas had fallen to just over $3, well below the pre-invasion price, back to the average price of late summer of 2021.

    But there was not the same level of relief for the price of diesel. Diesel prices fell 20% from their peak in June, only about half the decline for gasoline during the same period. And while gasoline is cheaper than it was a year ago, diesel remains close to the pre-2022 record price set in 2008. Greater demand for North American diesel by Europe in the wake of the war in Ukraine kept diesel prices so high.

    While relatively few US drivers use diesel for their private cars, it is still the fuel used by most heavy trucks, so it had an impact on the average American’s wallet. Most trucking companies charge a fuel surcharge to their customers when diesel prices increase. Because virtually all goods purchased by Americans are on a truck at some point before those purchases, that was a factor driving inflation higher.

    The wild swings in oil and gasoline prices were a major factor in battered consumer confidence during the year. But those swings were not felt evenly across the nation and throughout the year. Many of the western states faced much higher gas prices because of more limited refining capacity. But there were a number of refinery accidents throughout the year that caused spikes in other regions as well. So, everyone saw wide swings in prices, though not always at the same time.

    There is also the wide variation in gas taxes, from 68 cents a gallon in California to only 15 cents a gallon in Alaska. Some states temporarily halted their state gas taxes during the year in the face of high prices.

    But the difference in average income in the different states meant that drivers in some of the states with relatively low prices had to work almost as many hours to buy 15 gallons of gas as those drivers in high-priced states.

    For example, in Mississippi, where the hourly average wage in November was $24.52, according to the Labor Department, it took 1 hour and 41 minutes of work to earn enough to pay for 15 gallons at $2.75 a gallon at year’s end. In California, where the average price of regular was $4.38 a gallon, or about 60% more than in Mississippi, the average hourly wage of $37.61 meant that they only had to work four more minutes to buy those 15 gallons.

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  • Oil and Turkish stocks were 2022 market winners. Russia funds and crypto tanked | CNN Business

    Oil and Turkish stocks were 2022 market winners. Russia funds and crypto tanked | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Oil stocks skyrocketed in 2022, so it’s no surprise funds that track the energy sector were Wall Street winners this year. But the top fund of the year is a surprising one: It invests in a variety of companies based in Turkey.

    The iShares MSCI Turkey exchange-traded fund had more than doubled as of December 19, according to data from Morningstar Direct. The fund has big stakes in Turkish financial giant Akbank, Istanbul-based retailer Bim and the parent company of Turkish Airlines.

    Turkey has been hit hard by inflation, like the rest of the world, and its currency, the lira, has plummeted against the US dollar and other leading global currencies.

    So why the big gains?

    Turkey’s stock market thrived because the country is doing something most others aren’t: Its central bank has been slashing interest rates to prop up consumer spending. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to keep rates super low. He has even fired several central bankers in the past few years who refused to lower rates.

    The Turkish economy has slowed recently as unemployment has risen, but the instability has not hurt Turkish stocks. The iShares Turkey ETF has also had a lift from higher energy prices, as refinery Tüpraş is a top holding.

    Other US and international oil funds and ETFs were also at the top of Morningstar Direct’s list. (Morningstar Direct provided CNN Business with a ranking of the best and worst mutual funds and ETFs for 2022, excluding so-called leveraged funds that make outsized bets on stock market indexes.)

    The United States 12 Month Natural Gas

    (UNL)
    , Energy Select Sector SPDR

    (XLE)
    and several oil/energy funds run by top investing firms like Fidelity, Vanguard and BlackRock’s

    (BLK)
    iShares are all up between 50% and 80% for the year.

    In this rocky year for stocks, there were significantly more losers than winners in the mutual fund and ETF world in 2022. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

    (SPY)
    and Invesco QQQ

    (QQQ)
    , which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, were down 19% and 31% respectively.

    But no funds were hit harder than ETFs with exposure to Russia.

    Most funds with investments in top Russian companies either liquidated or halted trading following Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in late February, an act that essentially forced the United States, Europe and rest of the Western world to cut ties with Moscow and Russian businesses.

    Investments in Russia ETFs from iShares, VanEck and Voya were pretty much wiped out.

    The carnage in cryptocurrencies also hit several funds hard. Bitcoin prices were plunging even before the collapse of former crypto unicorn FTX. But the stunning demise of Sam Bankman-Fried’s company sent further shock waves throughout the industry.

    Funds from Osprey, Grayscale, VanEck (again), Global X, Bitwise, First Trust, Invesco and many other institutional investment firms all tumbled more than 70% in 2022.

    Other once-trendy funds were also hit hard this year.

    Several of the Ark ETFs run by Cathie Wood, which had significant exposure to Tesla

    (TSLA)
    , Coinbase, Zoom

    (ZM)
    , Roku

    (ROKU)
    and other momentum tech stocks that have dropped precipitously in 2022, were among the biggest fund losers.

    Numerous funds focusing on cannabis stocks also, ahem, went to pot this year. Cannabis ETFs from AdvisorShares, Global X and Amplify all plunged more than 60%. Even though more states are legalizing recreational and medicinal weed, intense competition in the business is making it difficult for cannabis companies to generate profits.

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  • ‘Life or death.’ As Britons buckle under the cost of living crisis, many resort to ‘warm banks’ for heat this winter | CNN

    ‘Life or death.’ As Britons buckle under the cost of living crisis, many resort to ‘warm banks’ for heat this winter | CNN

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    In a community center in central London, a young child plays in a makeshift area as her caregiver rocks her stroller and chats to a friend.

    The Oasis Centre in Waterloo sits in a four-story building that has a warm, inviting feeling, with plush chairs and lots of potted plants.

    But it’s not your regular high street hangout. This is a haven for families and local people to escape the bitter squeeze of Britain’s cost-of-living crisis – if only for the afternoon.

    Thousands of warm banks have opened their doors across the UK this winter, as household budgets are squeezed even further by spiking energy bills and inflation reaches a 40-year high, leaving many scrambling to pay for basic necessities. There are more than 3,000 registered organizations running warm banks in Britain, according to the Warm Welcome Campaign, an initiative that signposts community-led responses to the cost-of-living crisis.

    “A lot of people are struggling,” Charlotte, a community and families worker at the center, tells CNN. Her full name is not being disclosed for privacy reasons.

    “We haven’t even really got to the peak of the living crisis yet,” the 33-year-old mother-of-four adds. “No one should be choosing whether to put food on the table or to put the heating on.”

    The hub is funded by donations from individuals and local businesses, as well as grant incomes from charitable trusts.

    The cost of living has risen sharply since early 2021, according to data from the UK government. From October 2021 to October 2022, domestic gas and electricity prices increased by 129% and 66% respectively, the same research found.

    The average annual energy bill surged 96% from last autumn to £2,500 (roughly $3,000), with the UK government intervening to cap the unit cost of gas and electricity bills at that level until April 2023. However, the total amount consumers pay for their energy depends on their consumption habits, where they live, how they pay for energy and what type of meter they use, according to the UK’s regulator, Ofgem.

    A welcoming sign outside the Oasis Centre, an open to all communal area which acts as a 'warm bank', in London, on December 12.

    Charlotte, who works at and uses the warm space in Waterloo, says she limits her gas and electricity use in her flat. Instead of turning on the heating in the evening, she and her partner sit under quilts and use hot water bottles to stay warm, she says.

    She also anticipates her household energy costs increasing over Christmas, as her children, who are between 4 and 17 years old, spend more time at home during the school holidays. At the moment, Charlotte spends most days at the hub and said this habit will continue over the holidays to help alleviate her costs at home.

    Grace Richardson is an adult services manager at Future Projects in Norwich, in eastern England, an organization that offers health, housing and financial support to residents. She says her team started planning over the summer to provide a warm space in the organization’s Baseline Centre, located in an area with significant poverty.

    “This winter in particular, it’s extremely important that we’re offering a space that people can turn everything off at home and they can save money,” she tells CNN.

    “We’ve got people here working full time and they cannot make ends meet. That’s where the real difference is.”

    From young parents to pensioners to students in their 20s, Richardson says that people from all walks of life use the warm space, with about 25 attending each day. The warm bank, where staff serve meals, is subsidized by grant funding from the local council and private or corporate foundations, as well as donations from individuals.

    The café space at Future Projects' Baseline Centre in Norwich. The Centre, which serves as a community space, is currently undergoing renovation.

    Michael John Edward Easter, 57, says the service at the Baseline Centre has been a lifeline for him this winter.

    Easter, who has lymphedema in both legs and arthritis in one knee, is unable to work. Speaking to CNN earlier this month, he said he’d turned the heating on in his one-bedroom flat just twice so far this year to avoid spiking energy costs and compensate for a 50% increase in his weekly supermarket bill.

    He says he “was in a mess” when he first reached out to the Baseline Centre in January for welfare advice, as he was dealing with mobility challenges and craved a sense of community.

    “I was so ashamed and embarrassed, but I had to cry out for help,” he says. “I needed help and I just didn’t know where to turn to. If I’m totally honest, I’m very lonely.”

    Richardson suggests the need for warm banks is a result of government inaction.

    “I think that it highlights just how far removed our government is right now from the reality of real life. I think it screams … the divide between us and them, it’s only getting wider,” she says. “We keep referring to this as a cost of living crisis, as though it’s a period of time we’re going to go through and we will come out the other side. Will we? It’s life or death.”

    Energy prices have soared across Europe since fall 2021, driven in part by Russia’s war in Ukraine. But UK energy prices rose more sharply than in comparable economies such as France and Italy, analysts told CNN Business this summer.

    In November, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt announced higher taxes and reduced public spending in an effort to heave the country out of a recession forecast to last just over a year and shrink its economy by just over 2%, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility. The UK is the only G7 economy that remains smaller than it was before the coronavirus pandemic, according to the Office for National Statistics.

    Snow-covered roofs on terraced houses in Aldershot, UK, on December 12. UK power prices jumped to record levels just as a lengthy spell of freezing temperatures caused a surge in demand.

    The UK government also announced an Energy Bill Support Scheme worth £400 per eligible household, which will partially subsidize domestic energy bills from winter 2022 to 2023, as well as providing extra financial support to help pensioners pay their heating costs this winter under the Winter Fuel Payment scheme.

    In December more than one million households with prepayment meters did not redeem their monthly energy support vouchers – included in the government’s Energy Bill Support Scheme – the BBC reported.

    But Michael Marmot, a lead researcher in epidemiology and health inequalities, says years of austerity, paltry government support, cuts to spending on social welfare and infrastructure, and a lack of regulation in the UK’s energy market have plunged millions into fuel poverty.

    “Poverty has been building up over the last dozen years and getting worse,” says Marmot, director of University College London’s Institute of Health Equity.

    “We look the worst in G7 countries, we’re the only one in terms of recovery … that hasn’t gone back to where we were pre-pandemic. This is mismanagement on a colossal scale.”

    An estimated 3.69 million households in the UK were in fuel poverty as of December 2020 compared with 6.99 million households in December 2022, Simon Francis, who coordinates the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, told CNN.

    This figure is set to steadily increase, with more than three-quarters of UK households – 53 million people – forecast to be in fuel poverty by the new year, according to research by the University of York in northern England.

    The human rights organization Save the Children has distributed 2,344 direct grants to low-income families in the UK in the past year, the Guardian reported. The head of the charity also called on the government to provide more support for families, as it predicts acute financial hardship for millions in January.

    “What do you want a well-functioning society to do? At the minimum, people should be able to eat, to feed their families, have a safe dwelling … and a safe dwelling includes one that’s warm enough,” Marmot adds.

    Flyers advertising the warm spaces service alongside complimentary refreshments for visitors, at the Ashburton Hall community hub, operated by Greenwich Leisure Ltd., in Croydon, UK, on December 15.

    Susan Aitken, leader of Glasgow City Council in Scotland, says warm banks are “not a solution” to the cost of living crisis but rather “an emergency service.” The council has established more than 30 warm banks across the city in spaces including church halls, libraries, sports venues and cafes, and that number is expected to increase, according to Aitken. The service runs on council budgets and charitable donations.

    “The solution is for people to be able to stay in their own homes,” she says.

    “It’s bad enough that food banks have become a permanent fixture of communities across the UK now. To have places that people have to go to because they can’t afford to heat their own home is an absolute indictment (of government policy).”

    CNN has reached out to the UK government for comment, but it did not respond.

    Back at the Oasis Centre, locals show up for anything from knitting circles to after-school clubs offering free hot meals.

    Steve Chalke, the hub’s founder, says about 200 people use the facility daily for warmth. He says that he does not advertise the service as a warm bank because it is “dehumanizing.” Instead, he coordinates community-led events that are held in warm venues across the city.

    “The idea is to not inquire and to not ask,” he says. “It’s stigmatizing and it’s traumatizing, you know, so you end up feeling a non-person. So we want to take away that stigma in every way we can.”

    Steve Chalke, founder of the Oasis Centre, at the hub in Waterloo, London, on December 1.

    Francis, the End Fuel Poverty Coalition coordinator, says one of the most significant challenges to curbing fuel poverty is removing the taboo that people may feel when asking for support.

    “I think one of the problems with fuel poverty … is it is quite a hidden form of poverty. People kind of … try and cover it up and try and get by,” he says. “We’re not going to know the full extent of the pain that people are suffering this winter, because there will be ways that people will disguise what it is that they’re doing.”

    The mental health costs of fuel poverty are far-reaching, according to a 2020 report from the UCL Institute of Health Equity. The report said that young people living in cold homes are seven times more likely to have symptoms of poor mental health compared with those living in warm homes.

    “There’s surprisingly lots of people that do have work, but yet it’s not enough to keep afloat, at least without needing some help,” says Bintu Tijani, a mother-of-four who goes to the Oasis Centre at least three times a week to warm up. “It’s having a significant impact on people’s wellbeing, mental health and wellbeing.”

    Looking ahead to Christmas and the New Year, Francis says he is also concerned about the strain that treatment needed for medical conditions exacerbated or caused by cold weather will have on Britain’s National Health Service (NHS).

    “We’re still calling for the government to realize that if it doesn’t take action to support those who are the most vulnerable … it is going to see a huge increase in the number of people turning up at the NHS’ door to seek help because of the fact that they are now living in a cold, damp home and it is making them sick,” he says.

    Britain’s NHS is already under pressure amid staff shortages, historic nurses’ strikes over poor pay and working conditions, and a backlog of treatments resulting from the coronavirus pandemic.

    Aitken, the councilor in Glasgow, believes this Christmas will “be a pretty miserable time” for many.

    “A Christmas where you have to ration how long you can put your heating on in your home is not a good Christmas for anyone.”

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