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  • Tesla is a ‘soft landing’ stock, says Goldman Sachs. Here are its picks for a gentle economic landing and stocks for a recession.

    Tesla is a ‘soft landing’ stock, says Goldman Sachs. Here are its picks for a gentle economic landing and stocks for a recession.

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    Pour one out for the beleaguered economists, who for once got an important indicator, the consumer price index, right on the nose, after CPI fell 0.1% in December, while core prices rose 0.3%.

    “The 2021 surge in durable goods demand normalized, and the resulting collapse in durable goods price inflation was stunningly fast,” says Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management.

    “The commodity wave of inflation is fading, and that leaves the profit margin expansion in focus,” he adds. What a good time for earnings season to be upon us, and what do you know, it is, kicking off with the banking sector on Friday before broadening out next week.

    Strategists at Goldman Sachs have a new note out, saying that the market is pricing in a soft landing even though the trend of earnings revisions points to a hard landing.

    They’re not that optimistic — even in the soft-landing scenario, the team led by David Kostin say the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.40%
    will end the year right around current levels, at 4,000. But they identify 46 stocks that could benefit — profitable, cyclical companies that are trading at price-to-earnings valuations below their 10-year median, among other factors.

    One name jumps out: Tesla
    TSLA,
    -0.94%    ,
    which trades at 22 times forward earnings versus the 10-year median of 117 times. But the other 45 names are less flashy, ranging from Capital One
    COF,
    +1.81%
    and Carlyle Group
    CG,
    +0.54%    ,
    to a host of industrials including 3M
    MMM,
    +0.12%    ,
    Parker-Hannifan
    PH,
    +0.73%
    and Otis Worldwide
    OTIS,
    +0.42%    .
    As a whole, these typically $10 billion companies are trading at 12 times earnings, versus 17 times usually.

    In the hard landing scenario, S&P 500 profit margins would shrink by 125 basis points, to 10.9% — about in line with the median peak-to-trough decline during the eight recessions since 1970, which has been 132 basis points. Consensus expectations are for a 26 basis-point margin decline.

    The Goldman team also have a 36 stock screen for a hard landing — profitable companies in defensive industries with a positive dividend yield. They’re typically food, beverage and tobacco companies as well as software and services companies — including Costco Wholesale
    COST,
    +0.58%    ,
    Kroger
    KR,
    -0.99%    ,
    Altria
    MO,
    +0.48%    ,
    Tyson Foods
    TSN,
    +0.23%    ,
    Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +0.30%    ,
    MasterCard
    MA,
    -1.13%
    and Visa
    V,
    -0.25%    .
    As a whole, these $37 billion companies are trading at 22 times earnings vs. a historical 24 times.

    The market

    After a 2.3% advance for the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.40%
    over the last three sessions, U.S. stock futures
    ES00,
    +0.39%

    NQ00,
    +0.58%
    declined on Friday.

    The yield on the Japanese 10-year bond
    TMBMKJP-10Y,
    0.511%
    exceeded 0.5%, the Bank of Japan’s yield cap, ahead of next week’s rate decision , prompting a second day of aggressive bond purchases from the central bank.

    For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Business Daily.

    The buzz

    Fourth-quarter earnings were rolling out from Bank of America
    BAC,
    +2.20%    ,
    JPMorgan Chase
    JPM,
    +2.52%    ,
    Citigroup
    C,
    +1.69%
    and Wells Fargo
    WFC,
    +3.25%    ,
    and outside of banks, Delta Air Lines
    DAL,
    -3.54%    ,
    BlackRock
    BLK,
    +0.00%
    and UnitedHealth
    UNH,
    -1.23%    .

    JPMorgan shares slumped after forecast-beating earnings, though investment bank revenue came in light of estimates. Delta shares also declined after topping earnings estimates.

    Tesla
    TSLA,
    -0.94%
    cut prices of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in the U.S. and elsewhere by up to 20%. The electric vehicle maker stock dropped 6%.

    Virgin Galactic
    SPCE,
    +12.34%
    surged after saying it’s on track to launch space-tourism flights in the second quarter.

    Apple
    AAPL,
    +1.01%
    says CEO Tim Cook requested, and received, a pay cut after investor criticism.

    The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index is due at 10 a.m. Eastern, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker are due to speak.

    Tyler Winklevoss said charges by the Securities and Exchange Commission brought about Gemini Trust for allegedly offering unregistered securities were “super lame” as it seeks to unfreeze $900 million in investor assets.

    Best of the web

    There’s a bull market in swearing on corporate earnings calls.

    The West is now preparing to send tanks to Ukraine in what could be another escalation of its conflict with Russia, which on Friday claimed victory in the eastern town of Soledar.

    A look back at photos of Lisa Marie Presley, who died at age 54.

    Top tickers

    Here were the most active stock-market tickers as of 6 a.m. Eastern.

    Ticker

    		 Security name
    BBBY,
    -30.15%         		Bed Bath & Beyond
    TSLA,
    -0.94%         		Tesla
    GME,
    -0.68%         		GameStop
    AMC,
    +0.80%         		AMC Entertainment
    MULN,
    -8.59%         		Mullen Automotive
    NIO,
    -0.08%         		Nio
    APE,
    -2.56%         		AMC Entertainment preferreds
    AAPL,
    +1.01%         		Apple
    SPCE,
    +12.34%         		Virgin Galactic
    AMZN,
    +2.99%         		Amazon.com
    Random reads

    Like a scene out of “Stranger Things” — there’s uproar after new restrictions on the Hasbro
    HAS,
    +0.21%
    game Dungeons & Dragons.

    Starting next month, Starbucks
    SBUX,
    +1.30%
    rewards will be less generous for most items, though iced coffee will be easier to get.

    Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

    Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch reporter Charles Passy and economist Stephanie Kelton.

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  • Home For The Holidays? Here’s Our No. 1 Travel Constipation Tip

    Home For The Holidays? Here’s Our No. 1 Travel Constipation Tip

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    A 2020 Journal of Chiropractic Medicine narrative review of 18 meta-analyses found that fiber supplements can, in fact, reduce constipation symptoms1 by improving stool consistency and frequency.

    Both soluble and insoluble fiber are critical for regularity: Due to their high water-holding capacity, soluble fibers help soften poop, while insoluble fiber adds “bulk” to stool and promotes gut motility (i.e., it “gets things moving”). In addition to keeping your bowel movements in check, dietary fiber also supports gut health, digestion, blood sugar balance, and a number of other incredible benefits that might come in handy during the holiday season.

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    Morgan Chamberlain

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  • Up Your Fiber Intake With This Hearty Plant-Based Black Bean Soup

    Up Your Fiber Intake With This Hearty Plant-Based Black Bean Soup

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    With a five-minute prep time and 30-minute cook time, you can quickly make this delicious plant-based soup with staples in your pantry (think: vegetable broth base, tomato sauce, black beans).

    Vegetables sautéed in spices (chili powder, turmeric, cumin) bring warmth and comforting flavors, while the addition of black beans and mindbodygreen’s organic fiber potency+ make it a satisfying, fiber-rich meal that can keep you full for longer.*

    Top with fresh cilantro, a lemon wedge, and grated cheese and serve with tortilla chips for the perfect winter lunch or dinner!

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    Huma Chaudhry R.D., LDN

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  • Tyson recalls 93,000 pounds of beef contaminated with a ‘mirror-like material’

    Tyson recalls 93,000 pounds of beef contaminated with a ‘mirror-like material’

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    Tyson Fresh Meats, a division of Tyson Foods Inc.
    TSN,
    +0.20%    ,
    is recalling 93,697 pounds of ground beef over a possible contamination with a “mirror-like material.”

    According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service, the ground beef items were packaged on Nov. 2, and the issue was discovered after several customers found this mirror-like material in their meat after purchasing it from a grocery store.

    The products part of the Tyson recall are as follows:

    • 10-pound chubs containing “Hill Country fare ground beef 73% lean/27% fat with best before or freeze by: Nov. 25, 2022.”

    • 5-pound chubs containing “Hill Country fare ground beef 73% lean/27% fat with best before or freeze by: Nov. 25, 2022.”

    • 5-pound chubs containing “H-E-B ground chuck ground beef 80% lean/20% fat.”

    The USDA advises individuals who purchased these items to throw them away or return them to the place of purchase immediately. The impacted products were sold in retail grocery stores in Texas.

    The specific labels for the ground beef that Tyson is recalling can be found here.

    See: Flying with Thanksgiving food? TSA dishes up rules for traveling with foodstuffs this holiday season

    It’s been a tough time for meat lovers: Last week, the CDC warned that many people should “not eat meat or cheese from any deli counter” unless it was “steaming hot” due to a listeria outbreak.

    But there could be some more meat alternatives on the horizon.

    The Tyson recall news came as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced on Thursday that meat grown in a laboratory setting is safe for human consumption.

    “Advancements in cell culture technology are enabling food developers to use animal cells obtained from livestock, poultry, and seafood in the production of food, with these products expected to be ready for the U.S. market in the near future.,” the FDA said. To be clear, such products are not yet on the U.S. market, but they have now received this preliminary vote of regulatory confidence.

    And earlier this week, the CFO of Tyson Foods apologized to investors during a company earnings call over his arrest early on the morning of Nov. 6 after being found sleeping in a house that wasn’t his. 

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  • 20 dividend stocks that may be safest if the Federal Reserve causes a recession

    20 dividend stocks that may be safest if the Federal Reserve causes a recession

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    Investors cheered when a report last week showed the economy expanded in the third quarter after back-to-back contractions.

    But it’s too early to get excited, because the Federal Reserve hasn’t given any sign yet that it is about to stop raising interest rates at the fastest pace in decades.

    Below is a list of dividend stocks that have had low price volatility over the past 12 months, culled from three large exchange traded funds that screen for high yields and quality in different ways.

    In a year when the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.40%
    is down 18%, the three ETFs have widely outperformed, with the best of the group falling only 1%.

    Read: GDP looked great for the U.S. economy, but it really wasn’t

    That said, last week was a very good one for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 returning 4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.32%
    having its best October ever.

    This week, investors’ eyes turn back to the Federal Reserve. Following a two-day policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to make its fourth consecutive increase of 0.75% to the federal funds rate on Wednesday.

    The inverted yield curve, with yields on two-year U.S. Treasury notes
    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.540%
    exceeding yields on 10-year notes
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.064%    ,
    indicates investors in the bond market expect a recession. Meanwhile, this has been a difficult earnings season for many companies and analysts have reacted by lowering their earnings estimates.

    The weighted rolling consensus 12-month earning estimate for the S&P 500, based on estimates of analysts polled by FactSet, has declined 2% over the past month to $230.60. In a healthy economy, investors expect this number to rise every quarter, at least slightly.

    Low-volatility stocks are working in 2022

    Take a look at this chart, showing year-to-date total returns for the three ETFs against the S&P 500 through October:


    FactSet

    The three dividend-stock ETFs take different approaches:

    • The $40.6 billion Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
      SCHD,
      +0.15%
      tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Indexed quarterly. This approach incorporates 10-year screens for cash flow, debt, return on equity and dividend growth for quality and safety. It excludes real estate investment trusts (REITs). The ETF’s 30-day SEC yield was 3.79% as of Sept. 30.

    • The iShares Select Dividend ETF
      DVY,
      +0.45%
      has $21.7 billion in assets. It tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Select Dividend Index, which is weighted by dividend yield and “skews toward smaller firms paying consistent dividends,” according to FactSet. It holds about 100 stocks, includes REITs and looks back five years for dividend growth and payout ratios. The ETF’s 30-day yield was 4.07% as of Sept. 30.

    • The SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF
      SPYD,
      +0.60%
      has $7.8 billion in assets and holds 80 stocks, taking an equal-weighted approach to investing in the top-yielding stocks among the S&P 500. It’s 30-day yield was 4.07% as of Sept. 30.

    All three ETFs have fared well this year relative to the S&P 500. The funds’ beta — a measure of price volatility against that of the S&P 500 (in this case) — have ranged this year from 0.75 to 0.76, according to FactSet. A beta of 1 would indicate volatility matching that of the index, while a beta above 1 would indicate higher volatility.

    Now look at this five-year total return chart showing the three ETFs against the S&P 500 over the past five years:


    FactSet

    The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF ranks highest for five-year total return with dividends reinvested — it is the only one of the three to beat the index for this period.

    Screening for the least volatile dividend stocks

    Together, the three ETFs hold 194 stocks. Here are the 20 with the lowest 12-month beta. The list is sorted by beta, ascending, and dividend yields range from 2.45% to 8.13%:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 12-month beta

    		 Dividend yield

    		 2022 total return
    Newmont Corp.

    		 NEM,
    -0.78%         		0.17

    		 5.20%

    		 -30%
    Verizon Communications Inc.

    		 VZ,
    -0.07%         		0.22

    		 6.98%

    		 -24%
    General Mills Inc.

    		 GIS,
    -1.47%         		0.27

    		 2.65%

    		 25%
    Kellogg Co.

    		 K,
    -0.93%         		0.27

    		 3.07%

    		 22%
    Merck & Co. Inc.

    		 MRK,
    -1.73%         		0.29

    		 2.73%

    		 35%
    Kraft Heinz Co.

    		 KHC,
    -0.56%         		0.35

    		 4.16%

    		 11%
    City Holding Co.

    		 CHCO,
    -1.45%         		0.38

    		 2.58%

    		 27%
    CVB Financial Corp.

    		 CVBF,
    -1.24%         		0.38

    		 2.79%

    		 37%
    First Horizon Corp.

    		 FHN,
    -0.18%         		0.39

    		 2.45%

    		 53%
    Avista Corp.

    		 AVA,
    -7.82%         		0.41

    		 4.29%

    		 0%
    NorthWestern Corp.

    		 NWE,
    -0.21%         		0.42

    		 4.77%

    		 -4%
    Altria Group Inc

    		 MO,
    -0.18%         		0.43

    		 8.13%

    		 4%
    Northwest Bancshares Inc.

    		 NWBI,
    +0.10%         		0.45

    		 5.31%

    		 11%
    AT&T Inc.

    		 T,
    +0.63%         		0.47

    		 6.09%

    		 5%
    Flowers Foods Inc.

    		 FLO,
    -0.44%         		0.48

    		 3.07%

    		 7%
    Mercury General Corp.

    		 MCY,
    +0.07%         		0.48

    		 4.38%

    		 -43%
    Conagra Brands Inc.

    		 CAG,
    -0.82%         		0.48

    		 3.60%

    		 10%
    Amgen Inc.

    		 AMGN,
    +0.41%         		0.49

    		 2.87%

    		 23%
    Safety Insurance Group Inc.

    		 SAFT,
    -1.70%         		0.49

    		 4.14%

    		 5%
    Tyson Foods Inc. Class A

    		 TSN,
    -0.40%         		0.50

    		 2.69%

    		 -20%
    Source: FactSet

    Any list of stocks will have its dogs, but 16 of these 20 have outperformed the S&P 500 so far in 2022, and 14 have had positive total returns.

    You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Don’t miss: Municipal bond yields are attractive now — here’s how to figure out if they are right for you

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  • FieldTurf CORE: The World’s First Super Fiber

    FieldTurf CORE: The World’s First Super Fiber

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    CALHOUN, Ga., November 30, 2017 (Newswire.com)
    –
    FieldTurf is proud to introduce its latest fiber, CORE, the first multi-layer dual-polymer fiber ever. CORE rewrites the playbook for sports turf, reinvents the playing field, and redefines the player experience.

    Engineered as the premier system for premier fields, CORE is designed to deliver a more realistic, textured, grass-like shape with optimal durability and resiliency.

    CORE is more than a new groundbreaking fiber for us; it is a platform for future innovations. Our entire team has been dedicated to the development of our latest innovation, and it is with great pride that we introduce the first multi-layer dual-polymer fiber in the industry.

    Eric Daliere, FieldTurf President

    Single-layer polyethylene fibers have built-in limitations. FieldTurf has surpassed the limitations with CORE’s multi-layer technology. The system is constructed to deliver the highest fiber performance and resiliency available on the market. CORE is designed to provide elite high schools, high level collegiate programs and professional teams with a system that exceeds even FieldTurf’s current industry-leading products.

    Rutgers University is among the first organizations to install CORE at High Point Solutions Stadium. “FieldTurf is one of the great innovators in artificial turf surfaces, and we are pleased to continue our partnership with an industry leader,” said Director of Intercollegiate Athletics, Pat Hobbs. “We are committed to providing our coaches and players with best-in-class facilities, and this is another step in that process for all our student-athletes who compete at High Point Solutions Stadium.”

    “CORE is more than a new groundbreaking fiber for us; it is a platform for future innovations,” said FieldTurf President, Eric Daliere. “Our entire team has been dedicated to the development of our latest innovation, and it is with great pride that we introduce the first multi-layer dual-polymer fiber in the industry.”

    Labosport, a global leader in sport surface certification, tested CORE using the rigorous Fiber Performance Index — which measures durability, resilience and softness. The surface emerged with Labosport’s highest-ever FPI score of 89.

    CORE features FieldTurf’s heavyweight 3-layer infill system which has showcased a significant lower incidence of injuries per recent research by Michael C. Meyers, a professor in Idaho State University’s Department of Sport Science and Physical Education.  

    Contact a FieldTurf expert to become one of the first to take your program to the next level with CORE.

    Source: FieldTurf

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