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  • Earnings have beaten Wall Street estimates by more than usual in 2nd quarter, but 3rd quarter isn’t looking great

    Earnings have beaten Wall Street estimates by more than usual in 2nd quarter, but 3rd quarter isn’t looking great

    Online retail giant Amazon.com Inc.’s
    AMZN,
    +8.27%
    second-quarter results and third-quarter forecast sales last week were a bet that more consumers would start buying more things, but Wall Street’s expectations for the third quarter overall have only grown dimmer.

    With most of the 500 companies that make up the S&P 500 Index
    SPX
    already through the second-quarter earnings reporting season, slightly more than normal have reported per-share profit that beat Wall Street’s estimates, according to FactSet.

    For the third quarter though, analysts now expect a mere 0.2% increase in per-share profit growth overall, according to a FactSet report on Friday, or slightly lower than the 0.4% growth that was expected for the third quarter on June 30,

    And with some two months still left in the third quarter, and with that forecast likely to come down as the period progresses, Wall Street’s profit expectations are getting ever closer to turning negative.

    Wall Street analysts overall still expect a bigger rebound for the fourth quarter, the FactSet report said. And they expect 2023 overall to eke out a per-share profit gain of 0.8%.

    Worries of a U.S. recession emerging at some point during the back half of this year have started to fade at least a little after many economists fixated on the possibility earlier this year when the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates to combat a jump in inflation in 2022 . Some analysts now say savings fatigue could prompt more shoppers to splurge this year, after relentlessly tightening their budgets due to rising prices.

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last month said policymakers at the central bank had also shucked off their worries of a downturn.

    See: Fed no longer foresees a U.S. recession — and other things we learned from Powell’s press conference

    “The staff now has a noticeable slowdown in growth starting later this year in the forecast. But given the resilience of the economy recently, they are no longer forecasting a recession,” he said last month.

    Not everyone is convinced that a downturn has vanished from the horizon though. Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks, told MarketWatch last month that more bearish analysts had kept pushing out their recession forecasts, after being defied by the actual, and more positive, economic data. Some economists continue to push out those forecasts.

    “We still expect a recession, but now we are looking for it to begin in Q1 2024 rather than Q3 2023,” Thomas Simons, U.S. economist at Jefferies, said in a research note on Friday.

    He said that interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve were only just starting to affect customer behavior. Households were trying to rebuild their savings, after spending through whatever they had built up during the pandemic. Student-loan payments were returning, he said, and corporate margins were thinning.

    “Corporate profit margins are narrowing, and businesses will look to cut costs through layoffs,” he said.

    This week in earnings

    Among S&P 500 index companies, 34 report results during the week ahead, including one from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, according to FactSet.

    Results from Walt Disney Co.
    DIS,
    +0.95%
    will likely gobble up more media attention, but earnings from Paramount Global Inc
    PARA,
    +3.58%
    — which oversees CBS, Showtime, Comedy Central and other channels — will offer more detail about how studios are positioning themselves with Hollywood actors on strike. Lions Gate Entertainment Corp.
    LGF.A,
    -2.44%
    also reports.

    Results from Tyson Foods Inc.
    TSN,
    +0.34%
    will give investors and customers a brief look at the state of the grocery aisle where higher food prices over the past year have strained spending on other things. Beyond Meat Inc.
    BYND,
    -1.38%    ,
    which also reports during the week, will be hoping new product launches of plant-based meat-like alternatives can overtake analyst skepticism, amid competition with fake meat and real meat alike.

    Elsewhere, ride-hailing platform Lyft Inc.
    LYFT,
    -5.73%    ,
    online dating service Bumble Inc.
    BMBL,
    -3.86%
    and video-game maker Take-Two Interactive Software Inc.
    TTWO,
    -2.45%
    also report during the week. And Canadian pot producer Canopy Growth Corp.
    CGC,
    -3.47%
    will get another chance to pick up the pieces, after over-expanding and now trying to hold onto its cash.

    The call to put on your calendar

    Disney drama: One way or another, people on both coasts are mad at Disney
    DIS,
    +0.95%
    Chief Executive Bob Iger right now, as his company prepares to report quarterly results on Wednesday. Shares of Disney are down slightly this year. The company is currently fighting with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is trying to stamp out Disney World’s self-governing privileges after the company criticized the state’s restrictions on classroom discussion of gender identity. When Iger accused striking actors and writers in Hollywood of not being “realistic,” the actors and writers shot back, noting his hefty executive compensation plan.

    While the friction in Florida hasn’t hurt Disney’s parks attendance, the Hollywood shutdown has threatened Disney’s massive film and TV show operations, as Disney+ subscribers fall and investors more aggressively seek profits from studios’ streaming operations. Elsewhere, Rich Greenfield, an analyst at LightShed Partners, said “Pixar and Disney Animation have not had a breakout hit that impacted children’s play patterns and both Marvel and Lucasfilm feel increasingly tired from overuse.”

    The sense is growing that more time is needed for Iger to fix Disney’s problems. On Wednesday, analysts may get a deeper sense of how much more, with the chance of more drama between Disney and its home state and the writers and actors the company depends on.

    The number to watch

    UPS and the Teamsters deal: United Parcel Service Inc. reports quarterly results on Tuesday, as rank-and-file Teamsters vote on a tentative labor agreement struck with the package deliverer in an effort to avert a strike. The deal, if approved, would raise worker pay and give the economy and businesses a breather, after threats of strikes or work stoppages at the nation’s ports and railways were averted over the past year.

    Local Teamsters unions have voted overwhelmingly to at least endorse the agreement, between UPS
    UPS,
    -0.31%
    and the Teamsters union, which represents 340,000 UPS workers, but not everyone was happy with the deal. Some part-timers felt the Teamsters could have used their leverage to wrest more from UPS, following a profit windfall at the company. And investors have held out for more detail from UPS executives themselves on what the deal might mean for the bottom line and for shipping prices.

    Analysts will be dissecting the impact of the agreement as shipping demand lags, trucking company Yellow Corp.
    YELL,
    -0.83%
    reportedly shuts down and FedEx Corp.
    FDX,
    -0.20%
    tries to slash costs.

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  • Meta launches Threads, its app to rival Twitter, a day early

    Meta launches Threads, its app to rival Twitter, a day early

    Meta Platforms Inc. launched Threads, its rival to Twitter, a day early Wednesday.

    “Let’s do this. Welcome to Threads,” Meta Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg posted on the new app.

    The text-based app, a spinoff of Meta’s META Instagram, had been set to launch Thursday morning, but instead went live for users in the U.S. and more than 100 other…

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  • Meta’s Twitter-rival Threads: How to sign up, what it costs and what we know so far

    Meta’s Twitter-rival Threads: How to sign up, what it costs and what we know so far

    Meta’s Twitter-rival Threads launches tomorrow: What we know so far

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  • ‘Greedflation’ is replacing inflation as companies raise prices for bigger profits, report finds

    ‘Greedflation’ is replacing inflation as companies raise prices for bigger profits, report finds

    That’s the practice by many S&P 500 food and consumer companies of raising prices to protect what a new report calls their “cushioned corporate profits,” and it has enabled them to boost margins through the current inflationary period.

    Companies including Kimberly-Clark Corp.
    KMB,
    -0.45%    ,
    PepsiCo Inc.
    PEP,
    -0.18%    ,
    General Mills Inc.
    GIS,
    -0.88%
    and Tyson Foods Inc.
    TSN,
    -0.36%
    have on recent earnings calls touted their ability to raise prices, earning tidy profits and rewarding their shareholders as they go, according to the report from Accountable.US, a liberal-leaning consumer-advocacy group.

    And they have signaled their intention to continue to take “price actions” even as the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates an unprecedented 10 times in an effort to tame inflation.

    “Higher interest rates haven’t stopped S&P companies, especially in the big food industry, from raising consumer prices despite reporting billions in extra net earnings and over a trillion dollars in new giveaways to wealthy investors,” said Liz Zelnick, director of economic security and corporate power at Accountable.US.

    “Corporate greed is a stubborn thing and requires serious action from Congress. The Fed has not seen an adequate return on its investment in a policy that has already created fissures in the economy that could lead to recession. It’s just not worth it,” she said. 

    Now read: Skip, pause or hike? A guide to what is expected from the Fed on Wednesday.

    Accountable.US is not alone in calling out price hikes on essentials including food. Walmart Inc.
    WMT,
    +0.73%
    is also unhappy with packaged-food companies that have steadily raised prices in dry grocery and consumable goods, according to a recent report from research company CFRA.

    “Given Walmart’s enormous bargaining power over its suppliers, we expect the retail giant to push back on further price increases from its packaged-food suppliers,” he said. That is expected to hurt margins, especially if volume growth does not recover.

    For more, see: Inflation in goods from cereal to soup has given a boost to consumer food stocks. Can Walmart help bring prices, both food and stock, down?

    May inflation data released Tuesday found that food prices were up 0.2% from April, after remaining flat for the previous two months. Food prices are up 6.7% over the last year. The food-at-home index is up 5.8% over the last year, while the index for cereals and bakery products is up 10.7%.

    Food prices started to rise about two years ago, when supply-chain issues and higher fuel and commodity prices led companies to pass some of those costs on to customers.

    But companies appear determined to raise prices even more, despite a decline in shipping and gas costs. Gasoline was down 5.6% in May from April and fuel oil fell 7.7%, according to consumer-price-index figures.

    Also read: U.S. inflation slows again, CPI shows, and might keep Fed on sidelines

    Kimberly-Clark executives told analysts on its recent earnings call that the company is able to “rapidly implement broad pricing actions” and acknowledged that “pricing has continued to be a big driver behind our top-line growth.”

    The company’s first-quarter earnings topped expectations and it raised guidance for the full year. That’s after it raised prices by 10% for a second straight quarter, driving margins wider by 340 basis points.

    Shareholders were rewarded to the tune of $425 million during the quarter, the Accountable.US report notes.

    See also: Colgate-Palmolive’s stock pops after earnings beat as company raises prices by double-digit percentage

    PepsiCo Chief Executive Ramon Laguarta told analysts on that company’s recent earnings call that most of its price increases are behind it.

    However, he said, “obviously, there are some markets, highly inflationary markets around the world, where we might have to take additional pricing. If you think about Argentina, Turkey, Egypt — those kinds of markets where the currencies are suffering. But the majority of our pricing is already done,” he said, according to a FactSet transcript.

    PepsiCo’s 2022 earnings rose 16.9% to nearly $9 billion, and it spent more than $7.6 billion on stock buybacks and dividends, with the former up 1,313% from 2021.

    General Mills, meanwhile, bragged about “getting smart about how we look at pricing” on its recent call. The parent of brands including Cheerios, Nature Valley, Blue Buffalo pet products and Pillsbury raised its fiscal 2023 guidance in February.

    And Tyson executives touted the “significant pricing power of our portfolio with a year-over-year increase of 7.6%.” Tyson’s latest quarter included a surprise loss, as it was hit by weak demand for meat, along with plant closures and job cuts.

    For more, see: Tyson Foods stock slides after meat producer swings to surprise loss

    But Tyson had net income of over $3.2 billion in 2022, up from $3 billion in 2021, and it rewarded shareholders with $1.35 billion in buybacks and dividends.

    For Accountable.US, it’s more compelling evidence that the Fed’s rate-hike strategy “has failed to root out one of the main drivers of inflation and should give the [Federal Open Market Committee] pause before lifting rates again this week to the detriment of jobs and the economy.”

    The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund
    XLP,
    +0.36%
    has fallen 1.6% to date in 2023, while the SPDR S&P Retail ETF
    XRT,
    +1.89%
    has gained 4.6%. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.62%
    has gained 13% in the same period.

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  • Tyson Foods stock slides premarket after earnings miss by a wide margin

    Tyson Foods stock slides premarket after earnings miss by a wide margin

    Tyson Foods Inc. stock slid 5.5% in premarket trade Monday, after the meat processor and parent to brands including Jimmy Dean and Hillshire Farm missed consensus estimates for its fiscal first quarter by a wide margin.

    “We faced some challenges in the first quarter,” Chief Executive Donnie King said in a statement. “Market dynamics and some operational inefficiencies impacted our profitability. We expect to improve our performance through the back half of fiscal 2023 and into the future, as we strive to execute with excellence and work to become best in class in our industry.”

    Springdale, Arkansas-based Tyson posted net income of $316 million, or 88 cents a share, for the quarter to Dec. 31, down from $1.121 billion, or $3.07 a share, in the year-earlier period. Adjusted per-share earnings came to 85 cents, well below the $1.31 FactSet consensus.

    Sales rose to $13.260 billion from $12.933 billion, also below the $13.515 billion FactSet consensus.

    The company, the biggest U.S. meat supplier measured by sales, said beef prices fell by an average of 8.5% in the quarter, while chicken prices rose 7.1% and pork prices were up 1.4%. The company’s prepared foods division’s sales rose 7.6% and international and other food sales were up 4.9%.

    Beef sales rose 2.9% to $4.723 billion, while pork sales fell 7.4% to $1.529 billion. Sales of chicken rose 2.5% to $4.263 billion, while prepared foods sales rose 1.2% to $2.538 billion. International and other food sales were up 6.4% to $612 million.

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expecting domestic protein production — beef, pork, chicken and turkey — to be flat in fiscal 2023 versus year-earlier levels, said Tyson.

    Tyson said it is expecting fiscal 2023 sales of $55 billion to $57 billion, while FactSet expects $55.2 billion. Tyson expects capex of about $2.5 billion and net interest costs of about $330 million.

    The stock has fallen 27% in the last 12 months, while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.04%
    has fallen 8%.

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  • Big Tech just added to a shrinking forecast, but maybe Bob Iger can brighten the mood

    Big Tech just added to a shrinking forecast, but maybe Bob Iger can brighten the mood

    Wall Street’s expectations for 2023 have been diving as forecasts for the new year come in light, and the news could get worse once they factor in disappointing results from Big Tech. But at least Bob Iger is coming back for a sequel.

    Google, Facebook, Amazon and Apple all disappointed with holiday earnings this week. Their forecasts ranged from nonexistent to piecemeal to meh, and the fallout will only add to the biggest dive in Wall Street’s expectations through the beginning of a year since 2016.

    Analysts’ average forecast for 2023 earnings from the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -1.04%
    dropped by 2.5% in January, according to FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters, the worst in seven years. Those projections began heading lower last year, and the decline is only steepening — analysts are now projecting 3% earnings growth in 2023, and that is contingent on a big holiday rebound from the results being released this quarter.


    Uncredited

    The news was even worse for the first quarter, for which projections declined 3.3% in January as companies whiffed on their forecasts at a rapid pace: 86% of the 43 companies that have guided for first-quarter earnings have missed projections, Butters reported. Earnings are now expected to decline 4.2%, which would be the first year-over-year earnings decline since the third quarter of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic write-offs started to come in.

    Big Tech only added to the downward trajectory in recent days. Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -8.43%
    missed on its holiday earnings as well as its forecast for the first quarter, and that company could determine if S&P 500 profits rise in 2023 all on its own. Amazon’s worst holiday earnings since 2014 could also contribute to the consumer discretionary sector’s first earnings decline since the beginning of the pandemic, with holiday sector earnings now expected to drop more than 5%.

    Google parent Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    -2.75%
    GOOG,
    -3.29%
    and Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    -1.19%
    also missed their respective earnings targets amid problems with the digital-advertising industry, leading to the communications-services sector having the worst earnings season in the S&P 500. Profit has declined 25.2% in that sector so far, the worst among the 11 S&P 500 sectors, but would be down just 6.5% without the effects of Meta and Alphabet, Butters reported.

    Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +2.44%
    also didn’t do projections any favors, reporting its biggest sales decrease since 2016 and an earnings miss Thursday afternoon. In a piecemeal forecast, executives projected a similar sales decline in the calendar first quarter, though unofficially.

    This week in earnings

    After the busiest week in earnings season wrapped up, don’t expect much of a breather — 95 S&P 500 companies are expected to report in the week ahead, the third consecutive week with at least 90 companies reporting. There will be plenty of intrigue among companies not in the S&P 500 too, including Robinhood Markets Inc.
    HOOD,
    -3.59%
    and Affirm Holdings Inc.
    AFRM,
    -14.14%
    reporting together on Wednesday afternoon.

    Only one Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.38%
    stock will report, but that is the Wednesday call you will want to tune in for: Bob Iger’s return to the Walt Disney Co.
    DIS,
    -2.21%
    earnings show.

    The calls to put on your calendar
    The numbers to watch

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  • Tesla is a ‘soft landing’ stock, says Goldman Sachs. Here are its picks for a gentle economic landing and stocks for a recession.

    Tesla is a ‘soft landing’ stock, says Goldman Sachs. Here are its picks for a gentle economic landing and stocks for a recession.

    Pour one out for the beleaguered economists, who for once got an important indicator, the consumer price index, right on the nose, after CPI fell 0.1% in December, while core prices rose 0.3%.

    “The 2021 surge in durable goods demand normalized, and the resulting collapse in durable goods price inflation was stunningly fast,” says Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management.

    “The commodity wave of inflation is fading, and that leaves the profit margin expansion in focus,” he adds. What a good time for earnings season to be upon us, and what do you know, it is, kicking off with the banking sector on Friday before broadening out next week.

    Strategists at Goldman Sachs have a new note out, saying that the market is pricing in a soft landing even though the trend of earnings revisions points to a hard landing.

    They’re not that optimistic — even in the soft-landing scenario, the team led by David Kostin say the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.40%
    will end the year right around current levels, at 4,000. But they identify 46 stocks that could benefit — profitable, cyclical companies that are trading at price-to-earnings valuations below their 10-year median, among other factors.

    One name jumps out: Tesla
    TSLA,
    -0.94%    ,
    which trades at 22 times forward earnings versus the 10-year median of 117 times. But the other 45 names are less flashy, ranging from Capital One
    COF,
    +1.81%
    and Carlyle Group
    CG,
    +0.54%    ,
    to a host of industrials including 3M
    MMM,
    +0.12%    ,
    Parker-Hannifan
    PH,
    +0.73%
    and Otis Worldwide
    OTIS,
    +0.42%    .
    As a whole, these typically $10 billion companies are trading at 12 times earnings, versus 17 times usually.

    In the hard landing scenario, S&P 500 profit margins would shrink by 125 basis points, to 10.9% — about in line with the median peak-to-trough decline during the eight recessions since 1970, which has been 132 basis points. Consensus expectations are for a 26 basis-point margin decline.

    The Goldman team also have a 36 stock screen for a hard landing — profitable companies in defensive industries with a positive dividend yield. They’re typically food, beverage and tobacco companies as well as software and services companies — including Costco Wholesale
    COST,
    +0.58%    ,
    Kroger
    KR,
    -0.99%    ,
    Altria
    MO,
    +0.48%    ,
    Tyson Foods
    TSN,
    +0.23%    ,
    Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +0.30%    ,
    MasterCard
    MA,
    -1.13%
    and Visa
    V,
    -0.25%    .
    As a whole, these $37 billion companies are trading at 22 times earnings vs. a historical 24 times.

    The market

    After a 2.3% advance for the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.40%
    over the last three sessions, U.S. stock futures
    ES00,
    +0.39%

    NQ00,
    +0.58%
    declined on Friday.

    The yield on the Japanese 10-year bond
    TMBMKJP-10Y,
    0.511%
    exceeded 0.5%, the Bank of Japan’s yield cap, ahead of next week’s rate decision , prompting a second day of aggressive bond purchases from the central bank.

    For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Business Daily.

    The buzz

    Fourth-quarter earnings were rolling out from Bank of America
    BAC,
    +2.20%    ,
    JPMorgan Chase
    JPM,
    +2.52%    ,
    Citigroup
    C,
    +1.69%
    and Wells Fargo
    WFC,
    +3.25%    ,
    and outside of banks, Delta Air Lines
    DAL,
    -3.54%    ,
    BlackRock
    BLK,
    +0.00%
    and UnitedHealth
    UNH,
    -1.23%    .

    JPMorgan shares slumped after forecast-beating earnings, though investment bank revenue came in light of estimates. Delta shares also declined after topping earnings estimates.

    Tesla
    TSLA,
    -0.94%
    cut prices of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in the U.S. and elsewhere by up to 20%. The electric vehicle maker stock dropped 6%.

    Virgin Galactic
    SPCE,
    +12.34%
    surged after saying it’s on track to launch space-tourism flights in the second quarter.

    Apple
    AAPL,
    +1.01%
    says CEO Tim Cook requested, and received, a pay cut after investor criticism.

    The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index is due at 10 a.m. Eastern, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker are due to speak.

    Tyler Winklevoss said charges by the Securities and Exchange Commission brought about Gemini Trust for allegedly offering unregistered securities were “super lame” as it seeks to unfreeze $900 million in investor assets.

    Best of the web

    There’s a bull market in swearing on corporate earnings calls.

    The West is now preparing to send tanks to Ukraine in what could be another escalation of its conflict with Russia, which on Friday claimed victory in the eastern town of Soledar.

    A look back at photos of Lisa Marie Presley, who died at age 54.

    Top tickers

    Here were the most active stock-market tickers as of 6 a.m. Eastern.

    Ticker

    		 Security name
    BBBY,
    -30.15%         		Bed Bath & Beyond
    TSLA,
    -0.94%         		Tesla
    GME,
    -0.68%         		GameStop
    AMC,
    +0.80%         		AMC Entertainment
    MULN,
    -8.59%         		Mullen Automotive
    NIO,
    -0.08%         		Nio
    APE,
    -2.56%         		AMC Entertainment preferreds
    AAPL,
    +1.01%         		Apple
    SPCE,
    +12.34%         		Virgin Galactic
    AMZN,
    +2.99%         		Amazon.com
    Random reads

    Like a scene out of “Stranger Things” — there’s uproar after new restrictions on the Hasbro
    HAS,
    +0.21%
    game Dungeons & Dragons.

    Starting next month, Starbucks
    SBUX,
    +1.30%
    rewards will be less generous for most items, though iced coffee will be easier to get.

    Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

    Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch reporter Charles Passy and economist Stephanie Kelton.

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  • Tyson recalls 93,000 pounds of beef contaminated with a ‘mirror-like material’

    Tyson recalls 93,000 pounds of beef contaminated with a ‘mirror-like material’

    Tyson Fresh Meats, a division of Tyson Foods Inc.
    TSN,
    +0.20%    ,
    is recalling 93,697 pounds of ground beef over a possible contamination with a “mirror-like material.”

    According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service, the ground beef items were packaged on Nov. 2, and the issue was discovered after several customers found this mirror-like material in their meat after purchasing it from a grocery store.

    The products part of the Tyson recall are as follows:

    • 10-pound chubs containing “Hill Country fare ground beef 73% lean/27% fat with best before or freeze by: Nov. 25, 2022.”

    • 5-pound chubs containing “Hill Country fare ground beef 73% lean/27% fat with best before or freeze by: Nov. 25, 2022.”

    • 5-pound chubs containing “H-E-B ground chuck ground beef 80% lean/20% fat.”

    The USDA advises individuals who purchased these items to throw them away or return them to the place of purchase immediately. The impacted products were sold in retail grocery stores in Texas.

    The specific labels for the ground beef that Tyson is recalling can be found here.

    See: Flying with Thanksgiving food? TSA dishes up rules for traveling with foodstuffs this holiday season

    It’s been a tough time for meat lovers: Last week, the CDC warned that many people should “not eat meat or cheese from any deli counter” unless it was “steaming hot” due to a listeria outbreak.

    But there could be some more meat alternatives on the horizon.

    The Tyson recall news came as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced on Thursday that meat grown in a laboratory setting is safe for human consumption.

    “Advancements in cell culture technology are enabling food developers to use animal cells obtained from livestock, poultry, and seafood in the production of food, with these products expected to be ready for the U.S. market in the near future.,” the FDA said. To be clear, such products are not yet on the U.S. market, but they have now received this preliminary vote of regulatory confidence.

    And earlier this week, the CFO of Tyson Foods apologized to investors during a company earnings call over his arrest early on the morning of Nov. 6 after being found sleeping in a house that wasn’t his. 

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  • 20 dividend stocks that may be safest if the Federal Reserve causes a recession

    20 dividend stocks that may be safest if the Federal Reserve causes a recession

    Investors cheered when a report last week showed the economy expanded in the third quarter after back-to-back contractions.

    But it’s too early to get excited, because the Federal Reserve hasn’t given any sign yet that it is about to stop raising interest rates at the fastest pace in decades.

    Below is a list of dividend stocks that have had low price volatility over the past 12 months, culled from three large exchange traded funds that screen for high yields and quality in different ways.

    In a year when the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.40%
    is down 18%, the three ETFs have widely outperformed, with the best of the group falling only 1%.

    Read: GDP looked great for the U.S. economy, but it really wasn’t

    That said, last week was a very good one for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 returning 4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.32%
    having its best October ever.

    This week, investors’ eyes turn back to the Federal Reserve. Following a two-day policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to make its fourth consecutive increase of 0.75% to the federal funds rate on Wednesday.

    The inverted yield curve, with yields on two-year U.S. Treasury notes
    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.540%
    exceeding yields on 10-year notes
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.064%    ,
    indicates investors in the bond market expect a recession. Meanwhile, this has been a difficult earnings season for many companies and analysts have reacted by lowering their earnings estimates.

    The weighted rolling consensus 12-month earning estimate for the S&P 500, based on estimates of analysts polled by FactSet, has declined 2% over the past month to $230.60. In a healthy economy, investors expect this number to rise every quarter, at least slightly.

    Low-volatility stocks are working in 2022

    Take a look at this chart, showing year-to-date total returns for the three ETFs against the S&P 500 through October:


    FactSet

    The three dividend-stock ETFs take different approaches:

    • The $40.6 billion Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
      SCHD,
      +0.15%
      tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Indexed quarterly. This approach incorporates 10-year screens for cash flow, debt, return on equity and dividend growth for quality and safety. It excludes real estate investment trusts (REITs). The ETF’s 30-day SEC yield was 3.79% as of Sept. 30.

    • The iShares Select Dividend ETF
      DVY,
      +0.45%
      has $21.7 billion in assets. It tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Select Dividend Index, which is weighted by dividend yield and “skews toward smaller firms paying consistent dividends,” according to FactSet. It holds about 100 stocks, includes REITs and looks back five years for dividend growth and payout ratios. The ETF’s 30-day yield was 4.07% as of Sept. 30.

    • The SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF
      SPYD,
      +0.60%
      has $7.8 billion in assets and holds 80 stocks, taking an equal-weighted approach to investing in the top-yielding stocks among the S&P 500. It’s 30-day yield was 4.07% as of Sept. 30.

    All three ETFs have fared well this year relative to the S&P 500. The funds’ beta — a measure of price volatility against that of the S&P 500 (in this case) — have ranged this year from 0.75 to 0.76, according to FactSet. A beta of 1 would indicate volatility matching that of the index, while a beta above 1 would indicate higher volatility.

    Now look at this five-year total return chart showing the three ETFs against the S&P 500 over the past five years:


    FactSet

    The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF ranks highest for five-year total return with dividends reinvested — it is the only one of the three to beat the index for this period.

    Screening for the least volatile dividend stocks

    Together, the three ETFs hold 194 stocks. Here are the 20 with the lowest 12-month beta. The list is sorted by beta, ascending, and dividend yields range from 2.45% to 8.13%:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 12-month beta

    		 Dividend yield

    		 2022 total return
    Newmont Corp.

    		 NEM,
    -0.78%         		0.17

    		 5.20%

    		 -30%
    Verizon Communications Inc.

    		 VZ,
    -0.07%         		0.22

    		 6.98%

    		 -24%
    General Mills Inc.

    		 GIS,
    -1.47%         		0.27

    		 2.65%

    		 25%
    Kellogg Co.

    		 K,
    -0.93%         		0.27

    		 3.07%

    		 22%
    Merck & Co. Inc.

    		 MRK,
    -1.73%         		0.29

    		 2.73%

    		 35%
    Kraft Heinz Co.

    		 KHC,
    -0.56%         		0.35

    		 4.16%

    		 11%
    City Holding Co.

    		 CHCO,
    -1.45%         		0.38

    		 2.58%

    		 27%
    CVB Financial Corp.

    		 CVBF,
    -1.24%         		0.38

    		 2.79%

    		 37%
    First Horizon Corp.

    		 FHN,
    -0.18%         		0.39

    		 2.45%

    		 53%
    Avista Corp.

    		 AVA,
    -7.82%         		0.41

    		 4.29%

    		 0%
    NorthWestern Corp.

    		 NWE,
    -0.21%         		0.42

    		 4.77%

    		 -4%
    Altria Group Inc

    		 MO,
    -0.18%         		0.43

    		 8.13%

    		 4%
    Northwest Bancshares Inc.

    		 NWBI,
    +0.10%         		0.45

    		 5.31%

    		 11%
    AT&T Inc.

    		 T,
    +0.63%         		0.47

    		 6.09%

    		 5%
    Flowers Foods Inc.

    		 FLO,
    -0.44%         		0.48

    		 3.07%

    		 7%
    Mercury General Corp.

    		 MCY,
    +0.07%         		0.48

    		 4.38%

    		 -43%
    Conagra Brands Inc.

    		 CAG,
    -0.82%         		0.48

    		 3.60%

    		 10%
    Amgen Inc.

    		 AMGN,
    +0.41%         		0.49

    		 2.87%

    		 23%
    Safety Insurance Group Inc.

    		 SAFT,
    -1.70%         		0.49

    		 4.14%

    		 5%
    Tyson Foods Inc. Class A

    		 TSN,
    -0.40%         		0.50

    		 2.69%

    		 -20%
    Source: FactSet

    Any list of stocks will have its dogs, but 16 of these 20 have outperformed the S&P 500 so far in 2022, and 14 have had positive total returns.

    You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch quote page.

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