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Tag: federalreserve

  • Home buyers thought mortgage rates were finally going to go down. Why hasn’t it happened yet?

    Home buyers thought mortgage rates were finally going to go down. Why hasn’t it happened yet?


    Why are mortgage rates still so high?

    After a year of mortgage rates near 8%, home buyers are eager for good news. Some forecasters have buoyed their hopes, estimating that the rate on the 30-year mortgage will drop to 6% or lower this year. 

    But rates have not fallen by much thus far. The 30-year rate is currently averaging 6.64%, according to Freddie Mac. That’s despite the fact that the U.S. Federal Reserve hasn’t raised its benchmark interest rate since July 2023 and signaled in December that it would cut that rate in 2024. Meanwhile, economists in the real-estate sector have been anticipating a drop in mortgage rates since last fall.

    “Homebuyers may be feeling like the lower mortgage rates they’ve been promised in 2024 are not materializing,” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, said in a statement. In a recent survey of Americans’ feelings about the housing market, 36% of respondents said they expect mortgage rates to fall in the next 12 months.

    While the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, it can influence them, just as it influences the overall U.S. economy through monetary policy. But even though the central bank has hit the brakes on tightening monetary policy, with the economy giving off mixed signals of strength and weakness, the timing of anticipated cuts to the benchmark rate remains unclear.

    That in turn creates uncertainty about when mortgage rates will drop enough to “unfreeze” the housing market. Home buyers are probably going to have to wait until the Fed acts definitively before they see those lower rates.

    The effect of a strong economy

    The strength of the U.S. economy is one reason mortgage rates have not yet fallen much, economists say. The job market is still hot, and inflation remains higher than the Fed’s goal, which is why the latest read on inflation, out Feb. 13, will be so closely watched. The fact that rates haven’t fallen this year is “a result of uncertainty about the economy and the timing of the Fed’s rate cuts,” Sturtevant said.

    “The strong job market is good news for the spring buying season, as higher household incomes are a necessary component, but it also means that mortgage rates are not likely to drop much further at this point,” Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, told MarketWatch.

    Another reason mortgage rates are still high is that lenders are trying to protect themselves against lower rates in the future, Cris deRitis, deputy chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told MarketWatch. If rates fall, lenders run the risk that a borrower will pay off a loan early by refinancing. That would limit how much in interest that lender could expect to make.

    “In an odd sort of way, then, the expectation that mortgage rates will be lower in the future can lead lenders to increase rates today to compensate for the prepayment risk,” deRitis said. 

    Lower rates, more competition among buyers

    So when can prospective buyers expect mortgage rates to fall significantly? 

    “Homebuyers should expect mortgage rates to move lower as we head through 2024,” Sturtevant said. While Fannie Mae expects rates to fall below 6% by the end of the year, other economists, like Fratantoni, expect the 30-year rate to finish the last quarter of 2024 at 6.1%.

    But even if rates do fall, that won’t necessarily mean buyers will be better able to afford a home, because a drop in rates could heat up competition for homes even as it boosts buyers’ purchasing power.

    “There is still very low inventory in the market, and buyers need to act quickly when they find the right home for them,” Sturtevant said.

    For the many homeowners who currently have a mortgage rate below 4%, rates stuck in the 6% range may be leading them to put off plans to sell their home and buy a new one.

    But it’s worth noting that since 2000, rates on 30-year mortgages have ranged from a high of about 8.62% to a low of 2.81%, averaging about 5% over that span. And compared with the historical average of the 1970s, which was 7.7%, the current rates in the 6% rage are not that high, deRitis noted.



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  • How to navigate market risk from interest rates, the economy and politics in 2024

    How to navigate market risk from interest rates, the economy and politics in 2024


    As the U.S. Federal Reserve’s three-year reign in the headlines potentially comes to an end, an analysis of this year’s market themes can offer valuable insights for predicting trends and ensuring attractive returns in 2024.

    Beyond the central bank’s actions, pivotal factors shaping the investment landscape this year include fiscal policies, election outcomes, interest rates and earnings prospects.

    Throughout 2023, a prominent theme emerged: that equities are influenced by factors beyond monetary policy. That trend is likely to persist. 

    A decline in interest rates could significantly increase the relative valuations of equities while simultaneously reducing interest expenses, potentially transforming market dynamics. Contrary to consensus estimates, 2023 brought a more robust earnings rebound, leaving analysts optimistic about 2024.

    The 2024 U.S. presidential election, meanwhile, introduces a new element of uncertainty with the potential to cast a shadow over the market during much of the coming year. 

    Choppy trading, modest earnings growth

    Anticipating a choppy first half of the year due to sluggish economic growth, we see a better opportunity for cyclicals and small-cap stocks to rebound in the latter part of the year. As uncertainty around the election and recession fears dissipate, a broad rally that includes previously ignored cyclicals and small-caps should help propel the S&P 500
    SPX
    higher. 

    Broader macroeconomic conditions support mid-single-digit growth in earnings per share throughout 2024. Factors such as moderate economic expansion, controlled inflation and stable interest rates are expected to provide a conducive environment for companies, enabling them to sustain and potentially improve their earnings performance. We estimate EPS growth of 6.5%. This projected growth aligns with the broader market sentiment indicating a steady upward trajectory in earnings for the upcoming year, fostering investor confidence and supporting valuation expectations across various sectors.

    If the economy has not been in recession at the time of the first rate cut but enters one within a year, the Dow enters a bear market.

    When it comes to U.S. stock-market performance around rate cuts, the phase of the economic cycle matters. When there has been no recession, lower rates have juiced the markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    rallying by an average of 23.8% one year later.

    If the economy has not been in recession at the time of the first cut but enters one within a year, the Dow has entered a bear market every time, declining by an average of 4.9% one year later. Our base case is a soft landing, but history shows how critical avoiding recession is for the bull market as the Fed prepares to ease policy.   

    Big on small-caps

    This past year has posed a hurdle for small-cap stocks due to the absence of a driving force. These stocks typically perform better as the economy emerges from a recession. While they are currently undervalued, their earnings growth has been notably lacking. If concerns about a recession diminish, a normal yield curve could serve as a potential catalyst for small-cap stocks.

    Growth vs. value

    The ongoing outperformance of megacap growth stocks that we saw in 2023 might hinge on their ability to sustain superior earnings growth, validating their current valuations. Defensive sectors in the value category, meanwhile, are notably oversold and might exhibit strong performance, particularly toward the latter part of the first quarter. Should concerns about a recession dissipate, cyclical sectors within the value category could outperform, particularly if broader market conditions turn favorable in the latter half of the year.

    Handling uncertainty

    The Fed’s enduring influence regarding the prospect of a soft landing in 2024 remains a pivotal point in the market’s focus. Considering the themes of the past year and the multifaceted influences on equities beyond monetary policy, investors are advised to navigate through uncertainties stemming from unintended fiscal shifts, upcoming elections and the impact of fluctuating interest rates. While a potentially choppy start to the year is anticipated, it could create opportunities for cyclical and small-cap stocks later in the year.

    Ed Clissold is chief of U.S. strategies at Ned Davis Research.

    Also read: Mortgage rates dip after Fed meeting. Freddie Mac expects rates to decline more.

    More: After the Fed’s comments, grab these CD rates while you still can



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  • U.S. stocks staged a surprising rally on Friday. But can the party last?

    U.S. stocks staged a surprising rally on Friday. But can the party last?

    U.S. stocks saw a surprising bounce on Friday, culminating in the S&P 500 index’s biggest intraday comeback since the March banking crisis, even though a monthly jobs report for September came in much higher than expected.

    So, are investors no longer worried about the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight or higher interest rates wrecking the U.S. economy?

    “Stocks initially sold off on the blockbuster jobs report which indicates the Fed may not be done,” said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. “However, after digesting the strong labor market is still strong, stocks rallied. And why shouldn’t they? Will good news- finally – be good news?”

    Bolvin said part of the rally could be seasonal, with September typically being a rough months for stocks. There also has been increased optimism that the earnings recession for American corporations may be over, she said.

    Analysts are predicting corporate earnings growth rates of 5.9% for the fourth quarter for S&P500 companies, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. Estimates are for the third-quarter of 2023 after the stock index’s fourth straight quarterly earnings decline on a year-over-year basis.

    At Friday’s session lows, the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    was down 0.9%, but it ended up posting a 1.2% advance, its largest intraday comeback since March 24, 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    booked a 0.9% gain and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    rose 1.6% higher.

    “The movement in stocks today is certainly encouraging given yields are up as well,” said Chris Fasciano, portfolio manager, Commonwealth Financial Network. “But we will need to see follow through next week.”

    The yield on 10-year Treasury
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    note rose for five straight weeks in a row to 4.783% on Friday, while the 30-year yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    rose to 4.941%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Read: Why 5% bond yields could wreak havoc on the market

    While the U.S. stock-market will be open for business on Monday, the bond market will be closed for Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day holiday, giving investors somewhat of a pause before a big week of economic data that could shape the Fed’s next decision on interest rates.

    “Ultimately, stocks and bonds will take their cues next week from the economic releases,” Fasciano told MarketWatch.

    Key items on the calendar for the week will be September inflation reports, with the producer-price index on Wednesday and the consumer-price index due Thursday. In between, Fed minutes of its policy meeting in September also are due to be released Wednesday.

    “That makes next week an important week for the future direction of both the bond and equity markets as the Fed will certainly be focused on those reports prior to their next meeting on Oct. 31-Nov. 1,” Fasciano said.

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  • U.S. stocks stage a surprising rally on Friday. But can the party last?

    U.S. stocks stage a surprising rally on Friday. But can the party last?

    U.S. stocks saw a surprising bounce on Friday, culminating in the S&P 500 index’s biggest intraday comeback since the March banking crisis, even though a monthly jobs report for September came in much higher than expected.

    So, are investors no longer worried about the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight or higher interest rates wrecking the U.S. economy?

    “Stocks initially sold off on the blockbuster jobs report which indicates the Fed may not be done,” said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. “However, after digesting the strong labor market is still strong, stocks rallied. And why shouldn’t they? Will good news- finally – be good news?”

    Bolvin said part of the rally could be seasonal, with September typically being a rough months for stocks. There also has been increased optimism that the earnings recession for American corporations may be over, she said.

    Analysts are predicting corporate earnings growth rates of 5.9% for the fourth quarter for S&P500 companies, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. Estimates are for the third-quarter of 2023 after the stock index’s fourth straight quarterly earnings decline on a year-over-year basis.

    At Friday’s session lows, the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    was down 0.9%, but it ended up posting a 1.2% advance, its largest intraday comeback since March 24, 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    booked a 0.9% gain and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    rose 1.6% higher.

    “The movement in stocks today is certainly encouraging given yields are up as well,” said Chris Fasciano, portfolio manager, Commonwealth Financial Network. “But we will need to see follow through next week.”

    The yield on 10-year Treasury
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    note rose for five straight weeks in a row to 4.783% on Friday, while the 30-year yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    rose to 4.941%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Read: Why 5% bond yields could wreak havoc on the market

    While the U.S. stock-market will be open for business on Monday, the bond market will be closed for Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day holiday, giving investors somewhat of a pause before a big week of economic data that could shape the Fed’s next decision on interest rates.

    “Ultimately, stocks and bonds will take their cues next week from the economic releases,” Fasciano told MarketWatch.

    Key items on the calendar for the week will be September inflation reports, with the producer-price index on Wednesday and the consumer-price index due Thursday. In between, Fed minutes of its policy meeting in September also are due to be released Wednesday.

    “That makes next week an important week for the future direction of both the bond and equity markets as the Fed will certainly be focused on those reports prior to their next meeting on Oct. 31-Nov. 1,” Fasciano said.

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  • When will inflation cool to the Fed’s 2% target? By late next year, says JP Morgan strategist.

    When will inflation cool to the Fed’s 2% target? By late next year, says JP Morgan strategist.

    Inflation is likely to fall below the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target by late next year, according to David Kelly, chief global strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.

    Consumer prices rose again in August to reach a 3.7% yearly rate, based on Wednesday’s release of the monthly consumer-price index. That marked its biggest jump in 14 months and a higher reading than the recent 3% low set in June (see chart) as the toll of the Fed’s rate hikes kicked in.

    U.S. consumer prices rose in August, after touching a recent low of 3% yearly in June, as energy prices shot up.


    AllianceBernstein

    The catalyst for increased price pressures in August was a roughly 30% surge in energy prices
    CL00,
    +1.32%

    this quarter, according to Eric Winograd, director of developed market economic research at AllianceBernstein.

    West Texas Intermediate Crude, the U.S. benchmark, settled at $88.52 a barrel on Wednesday, as traders focused on supply concerns following decisions by Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut crude supplies through year-end. WTI was trading at a low for the year below $65 a barrel in May.

    “I don’t think that today’s upside surprise is sufficient to trigger a rate hike next week and I continue to expect the Fed to stay on hold,” Winograd said, in emailed commentary. “But with inflation sticky and growth resilient, the committee is likely to maintain a clear tightening bias—the dot plot may even continue to reflect expectations of an additional hike later this year.”

    Federal Reserve officials increased the central bank’s policy rate to a 5.25%-5.5% range in July, the highest in 22 years.

    Higher gasoline prices, however, also could act as a counterweight to inflation, according to JP Morgan’s Kelly. “Indeed, to the extent that higher gasoline prices cool other consumer spending, the recent energy price surge could contribute to slower growth and lower inflation entering 2024,” Kelly wrote in a Wednesday client note. 

    “We still believe that, barring some further shock, year-over-year headline consumption deflator inflation will be below the Fed’s 2% target by the fourth quarter of 2024.”

    Kelly isn’t expecting the Fed to raise rates again in this cycle.

    U.S. stocks ended mixed Wednesday following the CPI update, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    down 0.2%, the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    up 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    up 0.3%, according to FactSet.

    But with oil prices well off their lows for 2023, Winograd said further progress on cooling headline inflation is unlikely this year, even though he expects core inflation to gradually decelerate, a process that will “keep the Fed on high alert.”

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  • What’s missing for investors in new $60 billion corporate borrowing blitz

    What’s missing for investors in new $60 billion corporate borrowing blitz

    Another big corporate borrowing blitz to kick off September has gotten under way, but this one isn’t looking like the rest.

    Instead, the flurry of new bond issues shows how the Federal Reserve’s higher interest rate environment has begun to seep in a year later, by making major companies far more hesitant to tap credit for longer stretches.

    “The…

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  • Fed rate hikes can end now that U.S. job gains are the size of an economy like Australia’s, says BlackRock

    Fed rate hikes can end now that U.S. job gains are the size of an economy like Australia’s, says BlackRock

    The Federal Reserve can probably end its inflation fight now that the U.S. labor market is cooling after generating a historic 26 million jobs in roughly the past three years, according to BlackRock’s Rick Rieder.

    “In fact, 26 million jobs is like adding an economy the size of Australia or Taiwan (including every man, woman, and child),” said Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer in global fixed income, in emailed commentary following Friday’s monthly jobs report for August.

    The August nonfarm-payrolls report showed the U.S. adding 187,000 jobs, slightly more than had been forecast, but also pointing to an uptick in the unemployment rate to 3.8% from 3.5%.

    “Remarkably, 22 million people were hired between May 2020 and April 2022, and 11 million were added to the workforce from June 2021 to May 2023, as the economy has opened up massive amounts of roles for fulfillment,” said Rieder.

    He expects wage pressures to ease, he said, and thinks the “economy may now have fulfilled many of its needs,” which should make the Fed feel more confident in “the permanence of lower levels of inflation,” so that it can slow or stop its interest-rate rises by year-end.

    Hiring in the U.S. has slowed, except in education and in healthcare services, when looking at private payrolls based on a three-month moving average.

    Payrolls are slowing in many sectors, expect education and healthcare


    Bureau of Labor Statistics, BlackRock

    The Fed has already raised interest rates in July to a 5.25%-to-5.5% range, a 22-year high, with traders in federal-funds futures on Friday pricing in only about a 7% chance of a Fed rate hike in September and favoring no hike again at the central bank’s November policy meeting.

    Rieder of BlackRock, one of the world’s largest asset managers with $2.7 trillion in assets under management, said he thinks a Fed pause or outright end to rate hikes could calm markets, even if the Fed, as BlackRock expects, keeps rates high for a time.

    U.S. closed mostly higher Friday ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    up 0.3%, the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    up 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    0.02% lower, according to FactSet.

    The 10-year Treasury yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    was at 4.173%, after hitting its highest level since 2007 in late August, adding to volatility that has wiped out earlier yearly gains in the roughly $25 trillion Treasury market.

    Read on: This hadn’t happened on the U.S. Treasury market in 250 years. Now it has.

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  • How the stock market’s performance under Biden is worse than under Obama or Trump — in one chart

    How the stock market’s performance under Biden is worse than under Obama or Trump — in one chart

    U.S. stocks so far haven’t fared as well under President Joe Biden as they did in Donald Trump’s single term or in either of Barack Obama’s two terms.

    The research team at Wilshire Indexes is pointing that out this month with the chart below, which features the FT Wilshire 5000
    XX:W5000FLT,
    an index that aims to reflect the performance of the total U.S. stock market.

    U.S. stocks haven’t performed as well in Biden’s current term as they did under Obama or Trump.


    Wilshire Indexes

    Biden and his allies could be worried about how stocks
    SPX
    are doing, and it’s possible his administration will try to help the market somehow in 2024, according to Philip Lawlor, managing director of market research at Wilshire Indexes.

    “With the 2024 election in sight, the disparity in cumulative equity return generated so far under the Biden administration compared to the superior return trajectory delivered by the Trump and Obama presidencies could cause some concern,” Lawlor wrote. “Electoral cycle logic points to the Biden administration doing its utmost to ensure that the gap closes next year.”

    Biden officially launched his re-election campaign in April, and the Democratic incumbent and his cabinet officials have traveled around the U.S. in recent months to talk up their economic policies, including measures such as the Inflation Reduction Act

    When asked about the stock market’s struggles earlier this year, one White House official told MarketWatch that the administration wants to see “strong performance,” but he also noted that roughly half of Americans don’t hold stocks and highlighted other economic indicators.

    “The markets are going to go up and down. The main measure that the president has about the state of the economy is, how are middle-class families doing?” said Bharat Ramamurti, deputy director of the White House’s National Economic Council.

    “Do they have good-paying jobs that allow them to support themselves and their families? Are they seeing their wages go up? Do they feel like they have good opportunities to advance in their career, good opportunities to switch jobs and make more money? Or live in a better neighborhood, or whatever the case may be? By those metrics, we think that the economy is doing very, very well.”

    Republican presidential hopefuls made their economic pitches at a debate on Wednesday night in Milwaukee, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is currently running second in GOP primary polls, saying the country “must reverse ‘Bidenomics’ so that middle-class families have a chance to succeed again.” Trump, the current frontrunner in the 2024 primary, skipped the debate and instead released an interview just before the event kicked off.

    Betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics give Biden a 35% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election, while Trump is at 27% and DeSantis is at 6%.

    Stocks
    DJIA

    COMP
    were higher in choppy trading Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the central bank may need to raise interest rates even higher to temper a strong U.S. economy and quell inflation, while assuring investors that the Fed would proceed cautiously.

    From MarketWatch’s archives (Dec. 31, 2022): U.S. stocks log their worst year since 2008, crushed by Fed’s rate hikes

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  • Fed ‘accident’ could slice 20% off the S&P 500, stock market strategist David Rosenberg warns. Here are 3 ways to protect your money now.

    Fed ‘accident’ could slice 20% off the S&P 500, stock market strategist David Rosenberg warns. Here are 3 ways to protect your money now.

    David Rosenberg honestly doesn’t want to be bearish on stocks or bash the Federal Reserve. The veteran market strategist will get no satisfaction if he’s right about Americans having to slog through recession and consequently endure deflation, job losses and a wallop to the stock market.

    “As I play the role of economic detective, I can see the smoking gun,” says Rosenberg, a former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch and now president of Toronto-based Rosenberg Research.

    Who’s…

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  • Jamie Dimon discourages use of term credit crunch on call with analysts

    Jamie Dimon discourages use of term credit crunch on call with analysts

    ‘It’s not like a credit  crunch.’


    — Jamie Dimon

    While it will be more expensive for banks to deploy capital this year, talk of a possible credit crunch tied to higher interest rates remains overblown, JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon said Friday.

    Although Dimon acknowledged that more challenging lending conditions are already being seen in the real-estate sector, he said bank credit overall will continue to flow despite concerns about a credit crunch voiced by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on Friday.

    “Obviously, there’s going to be a little bit of tightening, and most of that will be around certain real-estate things,” Dimon said, according to a transcript of JPMorgan’s first-quarter earnings call with analysts. “You’ve heard it from real-estate investors already, so I just look at that as a kind of thumb on the scale. It just [means] the fast conditions will be a little bit tighter, [which] increases the odds of a recession. That’s what that is. It’s not like a credit crunch.”

    In real estate, banks have been hit both by a drop in mortgage demand due to higher interest rates as well as a looming wall of debt from office properties affected by slack demand for space. For its part, JPMorgan said Friday that its office-sector exposure is less than 10% of its portfolio and is focused in dense urban markets.

    Also read: JPMorgan Chase stock moves positive for the year after it blasts past earnings and revenue estimates

    On the call, analyst John McDonald of Autonomous Research asked, “There’s a narrative out there that the industry could see a credit crunch. Banks are going to stop lending, and even [Federal Reserve Chair] Jay Powell mentioned that as a risk.”

    Dimon responded: “Yeah, I wouldn’t use the word ‘credit crunch’ if I were you.”

    Dimon was also asked about the regulatory landscape for banks after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March.

    “Look, we’re hoping that everyone just takes a deep breath and looks at what happened and the breadth and depth of regulations already in place,” Dimon said. “Obviously, when something happens like this you should adjust, think about it.”

    Down the road, Dimon said, he could see potential limitations on held-to-maturity assets and perhaps more total loss-absorbing capacity for certain banks, as well as more scrutiny around interest-rate exposure.

    “It doesn’t have to be a revamp of the whole system — just recalibrating things the right way,” Dimon said. “The outcome you should want is very strong community and regional banks. And certain [drastic] actions … could actually make them weaker. So that’s all it is.”

    JPMorgan is also expecting to absorb higher capital requirements under the so-called Basel IV international banking measures, as well as an assessment to banks of the costs of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., he said.

    Also read: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says looser rules did not cause recent bank failures

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  • Sen. Sherrod Brown: American consumers losing power over their savings and paychecks is an emergency, too.

    Sen. Sherrod Brown: American consumers losing power over their savings and paychecks is an emergency, too.

    The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank sent shockwaves through the global economy and had the makings of another crisis. Depositors raced to withdraw money. Banks worried about the risk of contagion. I spent that weekend on the phone with small business owners in Ohio who didn’t know whether they’d be able to make payroll the next week. One woman was in tears, worried about whether she’d be able to pay her workers. 

    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve responded quickly, took control of the bank, and contained the fallout. Consumers’ and small businesses’ money was safe. That Ohio small business was able to get paychecks out.

    The regulators were able to protect Americans’ money from incompetent bank executives because when Congress created the Federal Reserve in 1913 and the FDIC in 1933, it ensured that their funding structures would remain independent from politicians in Congress and free from political whims. 

    But now, as the U.S. Supreme Court considers the case of Community Financial Services Association v. CFPB, these independent watchdogs’ ability to keep our financial system stable faces an existential threat.

    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is the only agency solely dedicated to protecting the paychecks and savings of ordinary Americans, not Wall Street executives or venture capitalists. Corporate interests have armies of lobbyists fighting for every tax break, every exemption, every opportunity to be let off the hook for scamming customers and preying on families.

    The CFPB’s funding structure is designed to be independent, just like the Fed and the FDIC.

    Ordinary Americans don’t have those lobbyists. They don’t have that kind of power. The CFPB is supposed to be their voice — to fight for them. The CFPB’s funding structure is designed to be independent, just like the Fed and the FDIC. Otherwise, its ability to do the job would be subject to political whims and special interests — interests that we know are far too often at odds with what’s best for consumers.

    Since its creation, the CFPB has returned $16 billion to more than 192 million consumers. It’s held Wall Street and big banks accountable for breaking the law and wronging their customers. It’s given working families more power to fight back when banks and shady lenders scam them out of their hard-earned money. 

    The CFPB can do this good work because it’s funded independently and protected from partisan attacks, just as the Fed and the FDIC are. So why, then, does Wall Street claim that only the CFPB’s funding structure is unconstitutional?

    Make no mistake — the only reason that Wall Street, its Republican allies in Congress, and overreaching courts have singled out the CFPB is because the agency doesn’t do their bidding. The CFPB doesn’t help Wall Street executives when they fail. It doesn’t extend them credit in favorable terms or offer them deposit insurance like the other regulators do. The CFPB’s funding structure isn’t unconstitutional — it just doesn’t work in Wall Street’s favor.

    If the Supreme Court rules against the CFPB, the $16 billion returned to consumers could be clawed back. What would happen then — will America’s banks really go back to the customers they’ve wronged with a collection tin?

    Invalidating the CFPB and its work would also put the U.S. economy — and especially the housing market — at risk.

    Invalidating the CFPB and its work would also put the U.S. economy — and especially the housing market — at risk. For more than a decade, the CFPB has set rules of the road for mortgages and credit cards and so much else, and given tools to help industry follow them. If these rules and the regulator that interprets them disappear, markets will come to a standstill. 

    By attacking the CFPB’s funding structure and putting consumers’ money at risk, Wall Street is putting the other financial regulators in danger, too. 

    The Fifth Circuit’s faulty ruling against the CFPB is astounding in its absurdity — the court ruled that the authorities that other financial agencies, like the Federal Reserve and the FDIC, have over the economy do not compare to the CFPB’s authorities. In other words, the court is claiming that the CFPB supposedly has more power in the economy than the Fed.

    That’s ridiculous. Look at the extraordinary steps taken to contain the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank — the idea that the CFPB could take action even close to as sweeping is laughable.

    But we know why the Fifth Circuit put that absurd assertion in there — they recognize the damage this case could do to these other vital agencies, and to our whole economy.

    Imagine what might happen if another series of banks failed and the FDIC did not have the funds to stop the crisis from spreading.

    The FDIC’s own Inspector General has stated that the Fifth Circuit ruling could be applied to their agency. If that happens, the FDIC and other regulators could be subject to congressional budget deliberations, which we all know are far too partisan and have resulted in shutdowns. Imagine what might happen if another series of banks failed and the FDIC did not have the funds to stop the crisis from spreading, or the Deposit Insurance Fund to protect depositors’ money. Imagine if politicians caused a shutdown, and we were without a Federal Reserve. 

    U.S. financial regulators are independently funded so that they can respond quickly when crises happen. It’s telling, though, that plenty of people in Washington don’t seem to consider the CFPB’s issues in the same category. Washington and Wall Street expect the government to spring into action when businesses’ money is put at risk. But when workers are scammed out of their paychecks, that’s not an emergency — it’s business as usual. 

    When Wall Street’s abusive practices put consumers in crisis, the CFPB must have the funding and strength it needs to carry out its mission — to protect consumers’ hard-earned money. 

    U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

    More: Supreme Court to hear case that will decide the future of consumer financial protection

    Also read: Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown sees bipartisan support for changes to deposit insurance

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  • ‘This is a risk confronting all banks,’ ex-FDIC chief Sheila Bair tells MarketWatch

    ‘This is a risk confronting all banks,’ ex-FDIC chief Sheila Bair tells MarketWatch

    Regional banks shouldn’t be the only source of worry for potential fallout from the Federal Reserve’s rapid pace of interest-rate hikes in the past year, said a former top banking regulator.

    “I don’t see regional banks as having any particular problem,” said Sheila Bair, who ran the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. from 2006 to 2011, in an interview with MarketWatch on Thursday. “We need to be mindful of all unmarked securities at banks — small, medium and large.”

    Bair called the hyperfocus on regional banks and interest-rate risks “counter productive” in the wake of the collapse earlier in March of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank
    SBNY,
    -22.87%

    of New York.

    “This is a risk confronting all banks,” she said. “All examiners need to be on alert for how interest-rate risk is being managed. If there is a run, they will need to sell these securities. Those are the kinds of things all-size banks, and all examiners should be worried about.”

    A run on deposits at Silicon Valley Bank snowballed after it disclosed a $1.8 billion loss on a sudden sale of $21 billion worth of high-quality, rate-sensitive mortgage and Treasury securities. It was the biggest U.S. bank failure since Washington Mutual’s collapse in 2008.

    The FDIC estimated that U.S. banks had some $620 billion of unrealized losses from securities on their books as of the end of 2022, including longer-duration Treasurys and mortgage securities that have become worth less than their face value.

    “Unrealized losses on securities have meaningfully reduced the reported equity capital of the banking industry,” FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg said on March 6, in a speech at the Institute of International Bankers.

    Days after that gathering, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank both collapsed, prompting regulators to roll out a new emergency bank funding program to help head off any liquidity strains at other U.S. lenders. Regulators also backstopped all deposits at the two failed lenders.

    Bair earlier this month argued that if U.S. banking authorities see systemic risks they should go to Congress and ask for a backstop against uninsured deposits, beyond the standard $250,000 cap per depositor, at a single bank. Specifically, she wants zero-interest accounts, or those used for payroll and other operational expenses, to be fully covered, as was the case for a few years in the wake of the global financial crisis to stop runs on community banks.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Wednesday that blanket deposit insurance protection isn’t something her department is considering, but added that the appropriate level of protection could be debated in the future.

    Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said the U.S. banking system “is sound and resilient, with strong capital and liquidity,” after hiking rates by another 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5%, up from almost zero a year ago.

    See: Fed hikes interest rates again, pencils in just one more rate rise this year

    Bair has been calling for a pause on Fed rate hikes since December. She said that instead of raising rates by another 25 basis points on Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell should have hit pause and said the central bank needs time to assess.

    “If we have a financial crisis, we won’t have a soft landing,” Bair said. “We have to avoid that at all costs.”

    Read: Bank failures like SVB are a reminder that ‘risk-free’ assets can still wreck portfolios

    Stocks closed modestly higher Thursday in choppy trade, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.23%

    up 0.2% and S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.30%

    advancing 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    +1.01%

    gained 1%.

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  • The Fed will either pause or hike interest rates by 25 basis points. What are the pros and cons of each approach?

    The Fed will either pause or hike interest rates by 25 basis points. What are the pros and cons of each approach?

    The Federal Reserve will meet on Wednesday and, for once, the outcome is unclear.

    This is the most uncertain Fed meeting since 2008, said Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research.

    Fed officials, starting with former chair Ben Bernanke, have perfected the art of having the market price in what the central bank will do — at least regarding interest rates — at each upcoming meeting. That has happened 100% of the time, Bianco said on Twitter.

    The Fed’s meeting this week is different because it follows the sudden collapse of confidence in the U.S. banking system following the government takeover of Silicon Valley Bank as well as the tremors around the world that have led to the shotgun wedding of Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse and its longtime rival, UBS.

    At the moment, the market probabilities are 73% for a quarter-percentage-point move and 27% for no move, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The market seems to be growing in confidence of a hike, analysts said, based on movements on the front end of the curve.

    The Fed’s decision will come on Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern and will be followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

    “Depending on your perspective, the Fed’s decision will be seen as either capitulation to the markets or ivory-tower isolation from the markets,” said Ian Katz, a financial sector analyst with Capital Alpha Partners.

    Here are the pros and cons for both a pause and a 25-basis-point hike.

    The case for and against a pause

    The main rationale for a pause is that the banking system is under stress.

    “While policymakers have responded aggressively to shore up the financial system, markets appear to be less than fully convinced that efforts to support small and midsize banks will prove sufficient. We think Fed officials will therefore share our view that stress in the banking system remains the most immediate concern for now,” said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, in a note to clients Monday morning.

    Former New York Fed President William Dudley said he would recommend a pause. “The case for zero is ‘do no harm,’” he said.

    The case against a pause is that it could spark more worries about the banking system.

    “I think if they pause, they are going to have to explain exactly what they are seeing, what is giving them more concern. I am not sure a pause is comforting,” said former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson in a television interview on Monday

    The case for and against a 25-basis-point hike

    The main reason for a quarter-percentage-point rate increase, to a range of 4.75%-5%, is that it could project confidence.

    “What you need from policymakers is steady hands, steady ship,” said Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC. “You don’t need overaction … flip-flopping around in projections or opinions.”

    The Fed should say that it has managed to contain confidence so far and that “we can press ahead with the inflation fight,” he added.

    Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said he didn’t think “the recent bank failures pose systemic risks to the broad financial system and economy.”

    He noted that “inflation is still running hot” and the Fed has better ways to alleviate banking-sector stress than interest rates.

    The case against hiking is that doing so could further exacerbate concerns about the stability of the banking sector.

    “A rate hike now might have to be quickly reversed to deal with a deeper, less contained recession and disinflation. Why would the Fed raise rates when it may be forced to cut rates so much sooner than previously hoped?” asked Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG.

    Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, said he thinks economic activity is slowing, which gives the Fed time.

    “There is no rush to hike. We are not going to see hyperinflation as a result,” he said.

    Stocks
    DJIA,
    +1.20%

    SPX,
    +0.89%

    rose Monday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.485%

    inched up to 3.46%, still well below the 4% level seen prior to the banking crisis.

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  • SVB’s failure proves the U.S. needs tighter banking regulations so that all customers’ money is safe

    SVB’s failure proves the U.S. needs tighter banking regulations so that all customers’ money is safe

    The run on Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) SIVB— on which nearly half of all venture-backed tech start-ups in the United States depend — is in part a rerun of a familiar story, but it’s more than that. Once again, economic policy and financial regulation has proven inadequate.

    The news about the second-biggest bank failure in U.S. history came just days after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell assured Congress that the financial condition of America’s banks was sound. But the timing should not be surprising. Given the large and…

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  • Jobless claims jump to 211,000, the highest since Christmas. Blame New York.

    Jobless claims jump to 211,000, the highest since Christmas. Blame New York.

    The numbers: The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in early March jumped to a 10-week high of 211,000. Yet most of the increase was concentrated in New York and might not signal a broader cooling-off trend in the U.S. labor market.

    New U.S. applications for benefits rose 21,000 from 190,000 in the prior week, the government said Thursday. The numbers are seasonally adjusted.

    It’s the first time in eight weeks claims have topped the 200,000 mark.

    An unusually big increase took place in New York. Raw or actual unemployment applications in the state jumped to 30,241 from 13,878 in the prior week.

    Chief economist Stephen Stanley of Santander U.S. Capital Markets said school workers in New York City are allowed by contract to apply for benefits during winter and spring breaks.

    Asked about the upsurge, a government spokesperson said by email that “the New York State Department of Labor cannot speculate on the increase.”

    California also posted a sizable pickup, perhaps a sign that the recent spate of major corporate layoffs are starting to bite. A number of large tech firms have announced job cuts since last fall.

    The number of people applying for jobless benefits is one of the best barometers of whether the economy is getting better or worse. New unemployment applications remain near historically low levels, however.

    Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast new claims to total 195,000 in the seven days ending March 3.

    Key details: Thirty-seven of the 53 U.S. states and territories that report jobless claims showed an increase last week. Seventeen posted a decline.

    Most states aside from New York and California reported little change.

    The number of people collecting unemployment benefits across the country, meanwhile, rose by 69,000 to a two-month high of 1.72 million in the week ending Feb. 25. That number is reported with a one-week lag.

    These continuing claims are still low, but a gradual increase since last spring suggests it’s taking longer for people who lose their jobs to find new ones.

    Big picture: Jobless claims are one of the first indicators to emit danger signals when the U.S. is headed toward recession.

    So far, jobless claims remain remarkably low and the economy is still adding plenty of jobs. Economists estimate that the U.S. gained 225,000 new jobs in February.

    Economists expect hiring to slow and layoffs to increase later in the year, however, as rising interest rates restrain the economy and reduce demand for workers. A number of large companies, especially in tech, media and finance, have already announced job cuts.

    Looking ahead: “Absent [New York], the count would likely have been below 200,000 yet again,” Stanley of Santander said.

    “Broadly, initial jobless claims have remained remarkably low despite the flurry of layoff announcements in recent months, underscoring that the labor market retains considerable momentum.”

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -1.66%

    and S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.85%

    rose in Thursday trades.

    Wall Street is hoping for signs of cooling in the labor market, which would discourage the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates more aggressively. The Fed is raising rates to snuff out inflation and reduce upward pressure on wages.

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  • Is the stock market open? Veterans Day is a regular day for U.S. stocks, but the bond market is closed.

    Is the stock market open? Veterans Day is a regular day for U.S. stocks, but the bond market is closed.

    The stock market remains open Friday, Nov. 11, the Veterans Day holiday in the U.S., even through it counts as a holiday for the $53 trillion American bond market.

    That means a full day of trading for stocks, which appear poised to book a robust week of gains, despite continued fears of a potential U.S. economic recession as the Federal Reserve works to tame stubbornly high costs of living.

    Signs of a potential cooling off on the inflation front led the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +3.70%

    to advance 1,200 points on Thursday, with it, the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +5.54%

    and Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    +31.35%

    all booking their best daily gains since 2020.

    Don’t miss: Veterans Day: Are banks open? Does USPS deliver mail?

    While Friday marks the start of a three-day weekend for the bond market, Treasury yields already have climbed dramatically this year with the Fed’s sharp rate hikes. The central bank aims to temper demand for goods and services by making borrowing costs more restrictive.

    Consumers may feel certain effects of inflation in their everyday lives, like when they go to the grocery store. But it can also impact our savings and investments. Here’s what to know.

    The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.819%

    fell to about 3.8% on Thursday, but was up from a 1.3% low last December. Bond yields move in the opposite direction of prices.

    The fresh rally on Wall Street followed the consumer-price index reading for October showing a 7.7% annual rate, down from a 9.1% high in June. The Dow remains down more than 8% from its January peak, the S&P 500 is 17.5% lower and the Nasdaq is 31% below its last record close, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Veterans Day was born out of the wreckage of World War I, with Nov. 11 recognized as a legal holiday in the U.S. in 1938, two decades after an armistice between the Allied nations and Germany went into effect at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month.

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