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Tag: Federal Reserve

  • Trump says he’s fired Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook

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    President Trump said Monday he has fired Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors — a dramatic move after months of public attacks against the central bank.

    The president announced Cook’s removal from the Fed board in a letter posted to Truth Social that accused Cook of making false statements on mortgage documents, actions he claimed were “gross negligence” and “potentially criminal.” Mr. Trump had previously urged Cook to resign, leading the economist to say she had “no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet.”

    The move is an early test of Mr. Trump’s power to terminate members of the Federal Reserve. Under federal law, Fed board members serve for 14-year terms and can only be fired by the president “for cause.” Cook has served on the Fed since 2022, and her current term runs until 2038.

    Mr. Trump wrote in a letter to Cook: “I have determined that there is sufficient cause to remove you from your position.”

    CBS News has reached out to Cook and the Fed for comment.

    What are President Trump’s allegations against Lisa Cook?

    The allegations against Cook were leveled earlier this month by Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, who has positioned himself as an ally of Mr. Trump’s. Pulte sent a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi accusing Cook of taking out mortgages for homes in Michigan and Georgia in 2021, and telling banks in both cases that she planned to use the homes as her primary residences — in what Pulte alleged was a fraudulent attempt to gain more favorable lending terms.

    Last week, Mr. Trump posted on Truth Social: “Cook must resign, now!!!”

    Cook said in a statement released through the Fed: “I do intend to take any questions about my financial history seriously as a member of the Federal Reserve and so I am gathering the accurate information to answer any legitimate questions and provide the facts.”

    Pulte has also made mortgage fraud allegations against California Sen. Adam Schiff and New York Attorney General Letitia James, two Democratic officials and Trump foes who denied the accusations. Notably, James’s office sued Mr. Trump and his company for loan fraud before his return to the White House, securing an almost $400 million civil court judgment that was tossed out by a New York state appellate court last week.

    Why is President Trump angry at the Fed?

    Cook’s firing came after Mr. Trump spent months attacking the Federal Reserve and its chair, Jerome Powell, over the central bank’s handling of interest rates.

    Cook, Powell and 10 other Fed officials sit on a committee that controls the nation’s monetary policy and sets target interest rates, with a dual mandate of keeping inflation low and employment levels high. This work is typically done independently, with little to no input from political leaders.

    The Fed hiked interest rates to decades-long highs in 2022 and 2023 in a bid to quell inflation. After some cuts last year, the central bank has chosen to leave rates at relatively high levels so far this year, fearing that inflation could come roaring back or that Mr. Trump’s tariff strategy could cause consumer prices to jump. The trade-off is that higher interest rates can lead to slower economic growth, and they make it more expensive for American consumers and businesses to borrow.

    Mr. Trump has lashed out over this strategy, nicknaming Powell “Too Late.” The president has floated the idea of firing Powell, in some cases accusing him of mismanaging a project to renovate the Fed’s headquarters. 

    Powell hinted last week that interest rate cuts could be on the horizon, as the Fed tries to prevent inflation from spiking without triggering higher unemployment. During a speech in Jackson Hole, he said the Fed will “proceed carefully,” but recent shifts “may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

    Even without firings, the president could reshape the Fed board as positions open up. If the Senate confirms Mr. Trump’s replacements for Cook and another Biden nominee who stepped down early, four of the Fed’s seven governors will be Trump appointees — making up most of the Fed’s board of governors and one-third of the 12-member interest rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

    Currently, just two Fed board members are Trump picks, both from his first term: Powell and board member Christopher Waller.

    Mr. Trump is widely expected not to appoint Powell to another four-year term as Fed chair when his current one ends in May 2026, though he hasn’t announced a successor yet. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump has nominated his economic adviser Stephen Miran to serve on the Fed board until January 2026, replacing Adriana Kugler, the Biden appointee who left the board earlier this month. It’s unclear who he will pick to replace Cook.

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  • Trump says he’s fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook

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    President Trump announced Monday that he’s fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook after months of public attacks against the central bank. In a letter posted on social media, Trump accused Cook of making false statements on mortgage documents, actions he claimed were “gross negligence” and “potentially criminal.”

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  • Trump says he’s fired Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook

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    President Trump said Monday he has fired Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors — a dramatic move after months of public attacks against the central bank.

    The president announced Cook’s removal from the Fed board in a letter posted to Truth Social that accused Cook of making false statements on mortgage documents, actions he claimed were “gross negligence” and “potentially criminal.” Mr. Trump had previously urged Cook to resign, leading the economist to say she had “no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet.”

    The move is an early test of Mr. Trump’s power to terminate members of the Federal Reserve. Under federal law, Fed board members serve for 14-year terms and can only be fired by the president “for cause.” Cook has served on the Fed since 2022, and her current term runs until 2038.

    Mr. Trump wrote in a letter to Cook: “I have determined that there is sufficient cause to remove you from your position.”

    What are President Trump’s allegations against Lisa Cook?

    The allegations against Cook were leveled earlier this month by Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, who has positioned himself as an ally of Mr. Trump’s. Pulte sent a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi accusing Cook of taking out mortgages for homes in Michigan and Georgia in 2021, and telling banks in both cases that she planned to use the homes as her primary residences — in what Pulte alleged was a fraudulent attempt to gain more favorable lending terms.

    Last week, Mr. Trump posted on Truth Social: “Cook must resign, now!!!”

    Cook said in a statement released through the Fed: “I do intend to take any questions about my financial history seriously as a member of the Federal Reserve and so I am gathering the accurate information to answer any legitimate questions and provide the facts.”

    Pulte has also made mortgage fraud allegations against California Sen. Adam Schiff and New York Attorney General Letitia James, two Democratic officials and Trump foes who denied the accusations. Notably, James’s office sued Mr. Trump and his company for loan fraud before his return to the White House, securing an almost $400 million civil court judgment that was tossed out by a New York state appellate court last week.

    Why is President Trump angry at the Fed?

    Cook’s firing came after Mr. Trump spent months attacking the Federal Reserve and its chair, Jerome Powell, over the central bank’s handling of interest rates.

    Cook, Powell and 10 other Fed officials sit on a committee that controls the nation’s monetary policy and sets target interest rates, with a dual mandate of keeping inflation low and employment levels high. This work is typically done independently, with little to no input from political leaders.

    The Fed hiked interest rates to decades-long highs in 2022 and 2023 in a bid to quell inflation. After some cuts last year, the central bank has chosen to leave rates at relatively high levels so far this year, fearing that inflation could come roaring back or that Mr. Trump’s tariff strategy could cause consumer prices to jump. The tradeoff is that higher interest rates can lead to slower economic growth, and they make it more expensive for American consumers and businesses to borrow.

    Mr. Trump has lashed out over this strategy, nicknaming Powell “Too Late.” The president has floated the idea of firing Powell, in some cases accusing him of mismanaging a project to renovate the Fed’s headquarters.

    Even without firings, the president could reshape the Fed board as positions open up. Mr. Trump is widely expected not to appoint Powell to another four-year term as Fed chair when his current one ends in May, though he hasn’t announced a successor yet. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump has nominated his economic adviser Stephen Miran to serve on the Fed board until Jan. 2026, replacing Adriana Kugler, a Biden appointee who stepped down early.

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  • Trump fires Fed governor Lisa Cook, opening new front in fight for control over central bank

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    By CHRIS RUGABER

    WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook late Monday, a sharp escalation in his battle to exert greater control over what has long been considered an institution independent from day-to-day politics.

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    Associated Press

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  • Trump says he has fired Fed governor Lisa Cook. She says he has no ‘authority’ to fire her

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    (CNN) — President Donald Trump on Monday said he has fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, according to a letter addressed to her posted on his social media — the first instance of a president firing a central bank governor in the central bank’s 111-year history.

    The unprecedented move represents a significant escalation of the president’s battle against the Fed, which he has blamed for taking too long to lower interest rates. But Cook said the president doesn’t have the “authority” to fire her and that she plans to continue in her post.

    Cook has recently come under fire by Trump and members of his administration for allegedly committing mortgage fraud. The Justice Department has said it plans to investigate those allegations first raised by Federal Housing Finance Director Bill Pulte.

    Cook has not been charged with any wrongdoing.

    “President Trump purported to fire me ‘for cause’ when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so,” Cook said in statement her attorneys shared with CNN Monday night. “I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022.”

    The Fed declined to comment on the news.

    It’s unclear whether Trump has the legal authority to fire Cook over these allegations. The law specifies that a president may only remove members of the Fed’s board “for cause” – though what merits a for-cause firing has not been explicitly defined.

    Trump, in his letter to Cook wrote, “I have determined that there is sufficient cause to remove you from your position.”

    (A CNN review of mortgage documents shows that Cook took out mortgages for two properties, both of which were listed as her principal residence. However, it’s not known why she did so or if she did so intentionally.)

    “In light of your deceitful and potentially criminal conduct in a financial matter … I do not have such confidence in your integrity. At a minimum, the conduct at issue exhibits the sort of gross negligence in financial transactions that calls into question your competence and trustworthiness as a financial regulator,” Trump added in his letter.

    “This is not DOJ opening anything, they haven’t charged her. So as of right now, I think it’s kind of questionable for cause,” former Federal prosecutor Shan Wu told CNN’s Brianna Keilar, referring to the Department of Justice. “It’s definitely gonna get litigated.”

    Appointed to the Fed board by former President Joe Biden in 2022, Cook is the first Black woman to serve as a Fed governor.

    While the firing may be challenged in courts, even going up to the Supreme Court, Trump’s firing of Cook puts the central bank of the world’s largest economy in uncharted waters.

    For example, it’s unknown whether Cook would have to leave the Fed’s board immediately, and if so, will Trump have the opportunity to nominate someone else to fill her seat. Cook’s attorney, Abbe David Lowell of Lowell & Associates, said in a statement to CNN: “We will take whatever actions are needed to prevent his attempted illegal action.”

    The Fed’s next monetary policy meeting is less than a month away, over September 16 and 17.

    Last week Cook released a statement saying she would not be “bullied” into resigning.

    “I have no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet. I do intend to take any questions about my financial history seriously as a member of the Federal Reserve and so I am gathering the accurate information to answer any legitimate questions and provide the facts,” she said in that statement.

    Fed independence at risk

    The Fed is designed to be independent from politicians specifically so it can focus on economic data – and not political considerations – in achieving its dual mandate to keep price increases in check while supporting the job market.

    Politicians often prefer lower interest rates, aiming to boost stock prices and make it cheaper for people to borrow money, both popular moves among voters. But lower interest rates risk igniting price pressures. On the other hand, leaving rates too high could overly restrict spending and hiring, hurting the economy.

    No central bank gets it right all the time. However, studies strongly suggest that economies with independent central banks experience better outcomes, including lower inflation.

    If the move costs the US its economic credibility, American assets, such as stocks and the dollar, could get hammered. That in turn could leave investors to demand higher premiums to lend money to the US.

    “The bigger picture is sadly simple: The Fed is designed to be independent of politics, for very good reasons,” Alan Blinder, a former vice chair at the Fed told CNN Monday night. “He is trying to end that and make it an arm of the Trump administration, which will be very bad for monetary policy if it happens.”

    Senator Elizabeth Warren, the top-ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, said in a statement that Trump’s attempt to fire Cook is “an authoritarian power grab that blatantly violates the Federal Reserve Act, and must be overturned in court.”

    Representatives for Republican Senator Tim Scott, who leads the committee, did not immediately respond to CNN’s request for a comment.

    Immediately following Trump’s announcement on Monday, the US dollar index dropped by 0.3%. The index measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of international currencies.

    US stock futures, meanwhile, slid further after a day in the green. Dow futures fell 100 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.5%.

    The price of gold, which is considered a safe haven asset during times of uncertainty, rose 0.45%.

    This story has been updated with additional context and developments.

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    Elisabeth Buchwald, Bryan Mena and CNN

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  • 3 Things That Could Impact Crypto Markets in Week Ahead 

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    Crypto markets were boosted late last week after Fed chair Jerome Powell signaled a potential change in monetary policy; however, some of that momentum has waned on Monday morning.

    While Powell didn’t commit to rate cuts outright, he acknowledged that the balance of risks was shifting in a way that “may warrant” less restrictive monetary policy and rate cuts next month.

    US PCE inflation data will be the key economic indicator in the coming week as investors anticipate interest rates coming down slightly in September.

    Economic Events August 25 to 29

    Tuesday will see the release of consumer confidence data, which reflects the sentiment of consumers regarding inflationary pressures.

    Thursday is a big data day, as the second-quarter GDP growth annualized report is published, providing more insight into the economy’s growth and incorporating additional data that was not included in the advance estimate. HSBC economists forecast that Q2 GDP growth will be revised up to 3.2% from the initial estimate of 3.0%.

    July’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is due on Friday, tracking changes in inflation based on consumer spending. This is one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauges, along with CPI. The PCE report will be the next key item of data ahead of the central bank’s September policy meeting.

    Friday will also include consumer sentiment reports and inflation expectations, which summarize consumer confidence and long-term expectations.

    The big earnings report due this week is from semiconductor giant Nvidia, which is a bellwether for the entire AI industry. Nvidia is expected to post a 48% rise in earnings per share on revenue of $46 billion for its second quarter, according to Reuters.

    Crypto Market Outlook

    Digital asset markets are retreating this Monday morning in Asia, with total capitalization dipping 1% to $4.04 trillion.

    Bitcoin has wiped out weekend gains and has returned to last week’s levels of around $113,000 as it returns to support levels. BTC hit $117,000 shortly after the Fed speech, but was rejected sharply from that level.

    Ethereum hit an all-time high, finally breaking its 2021 peak, in late trading on Sunday when it spiked to $4,950; however, it has fallen back to the $4,700 level at the time of writing.

    The alcoins were a mixed bunch with losses for Tron, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin, but gains for Chainlink and Hyperliquid.

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    Martin Young

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  • The Federal Reserve could start resembling the Supreme Court

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    As President Donald Trump ramps up pressure on the Federal Reserve, the typically staid, consensus-driven institution could take on some qualities of the more bitterly divided Supreme Court.

    Since returning to the White House, he has demanded that the Fed cut rates and routinely insults Chairman Jerome Powell for not doing so. After teasing that he could fire Powell then backing off, Trump has threatened to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook if she doesn’t resign.

    For her part, Cook said she won’t be bullied into stepping down and plans to rebut accusations of mortgage fraud from a Trump administration housing official. That’s raised the question of how long she might choose to serve.

    Cook joined the Fed in 2022 after being tapped by President Joe Biden to fill an unexpired term that ended in 2024, then getting reappointed. So she can stay on the Fed board until 2038, though governors typically don’t serve out their entire 14-year terms.

    “However, the Fed has increasingly become a political football,” Ian Katz, managing partner at Capital Alpha Partners, said in a note Wednesday. “Trump has been clear that he wants to put loyalists on the board. As a result, some governors may choose to remain on the board until a president from their same political party is in the White House — making the Fed in that way more like the Supreme Court.”

    Meanwhile, Trump has named Stephen Miran, chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a vacancy on the board left by Adriana Kugler, who stepped down before her term was due to expire in January.

    He has backed Trump’s call for lower rates. More notably, Miran also cowrote a paper in 2024 calling for an overhaul of the Fed that reduces its independence.

    That could factor into Cook’s decision on how long she will stay. In his note, Katz observed that “governors in the past have stepped down without concern that the president would nominate a replacement who isn’t a strong believer in Fed independence.”

    Similarly, Powell’s own plans have come under scrutiny. While his term as board chair expires in May, his term as a governor extends to January 2028. 

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said Powell should step down as governor when his term as chairman ends, saying that has been the tradition. Powell has declined to say what he will do.

    The stakes could go well beyond how much the Fed lowers rates. Analysts at JPMorgan have even warned that Miran’s appointment represents an “existential threat” to the Fed as it signals an intention to amend the Federal Reserve Act and alter the central bank’s authority.

    Split decisions

    It’s not clear if Miran will be reappointed to the Fed board as the White House looks for someone to replace Powell as chairman. But either way, the Fed will have three Trump-appointed governors.

    To be sure, that’s not enough to sway rate decisions on the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee, which is also comprised of regional Fed presidents. But if Trump is able to name a fourth governor, that’s enough to tip the balance on the seven-member board.

    As Axios recently pointed out, a board majority would give Trump appointees power over the Fed’s budgets, staffing, and even selection of regional Fed presidents. Those presidents are appointed by directors of the regional Fed banks, but they are subject to the approval of the board. And in February, the five-year terms for all the bank presidents are scheduled to expire.

    With composition of the Fed in flux, a more divided era may be looming that also resembles the Supreme Court.

    Fed rate decisions are usually unanimous with even one dissenting vote being rare. By contrast, the high court rarely has unanimous votes, while split decisions along ideological lines are common.

    July’s Fed meeting may have been a preview of what’s to come as two Trump-appointed governors voted to lower rates, going against the majority that kept rates steady.

    And although Powell opened the door to a rate cut at the September meeting, that doesn’t guarantee a consensus either as other FOMC members still sounded hawkish, such as Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid.

    That sets up another FOMC meeting with dissenting votes. In addition, the pace of any subsequent cuts isn’t clear, providing more fodder for debate at the central bank as Trump-appointed officials push for dovish policy.

    Like the chief justice of the Supreme Court, the Fed chair represents just one vote but is also a first among equals who carried outsized influence. So whoever replaces Powell may need to rely on their powers of persuasion on a Fed with more conflicting views.

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  • XRP and the US Fed: How Rate Cuts Could Impact Ripple’s Price (ChatGPT Breaks it Down)

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    TL;DR

    • Jerome Powell, the current Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, hinted that the central bank might reduce the key interest rates as soon as September this year.
    • Rate cuts are typically regarded as bullish for riskier assets, such as crypto, and here’s what ChatGPT thinks about the potential impact on XRP.

    Fed Rate Cuts to Pump XRP?

    The Jackson Hole speech took place on Friday as the crypto market had braced for impact with a week-long correction that drove BTC from over $118,000 to under $112,000, ETH from above $4,800 to $4,100, and XRP dumped below $2.8 to market a multi-week low.

    Although Powell failed to specify whether the Fed will indeed cut rates at its next FOMC meeting in September, his words were perceived as promising by investors, who poured billions of dollars into the ever-volatile, risky crypto market. BTC jumped beyond $117,000, albeit briefly, while ETH rocketed to a new all-time high of almost $4,900.

    Another sign that the market will now anticipate a rate reduction in September came from Polymarket as the odds for such a Fed move went from under 60% to almost 80% within hours. Consequently, CryptoPotato explored the potential effects on the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, more on which can be found here, and we have now shifted our focus to the third-biggest.

    We asked ChatGPT about its take on the matter, and the AI solution explained that lower rates mean that borrowing becomes cheaper and money flows more easily into risk assets, at least in theory. History shows that rate cuts have boosted stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies, as investors seek higher returns.

    For XRP in particular, this could mean more speculative inflows from traders reallocating from bitcoin or even other traditional assets into well-known and established altcoins, such as the second-largest.

    It also explained that lower rates weaken the US dollar, which often strengthens bitcoin first but “altcoins like XRP typically follow with a lag – sometimes explosively once capital rotates.”

    ETF Exposure and Potential Risks

    With roughly ten filings made by different companies to launch their own spot XRP ETFs, Ripple’s community is frequently speculating when such financial vehicles will finally be approved in the US, following those for BTC and ETH. ChatGPT believes the right timing of potential approvals of Ripple ETFs could be massive for the underlying asset.

    “A lower interest rate environment makes yield-bearing Treasuries less attractive. Institutions may look harder at crypto ETFs (including pending XRP ETF filings) as a way to diversify.

    If an XRP ETF is approved around the same time, rate cuts could supercharge inflows.”

    However, the AI chatbot also outlined potential short-term risks. If rate cuts occur due to recession fears, risk appetite will initially decline, which includes bitcoin and the altcoins. As such, it warned that investors might “exit risk assets (including XRP) until confidence in economic recovery returns.”

    Overall, though, ChatGPT was bullish on XRP if the US Federal Reserve indeed cuts the rates. It outlined a positive medium-term path for the asset, and a highly bullish run if the ETF stars align.

    Bullish Medium-Term: Fed rate cuts are generally positive for XRP because they boost liquidity, weaken the dollar, and increase demand for alternative assets.

    Catalyst Combo: If rate cuts coincide with an XRP ETF approval or favorable legal clarity, XRP’s upside could accelerate toward — or beyond — its all-time high.”

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    Jordan Lyanchev

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  • Fed Chair signals upcoming interest rate cuts, stocks skyrocket in response

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    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave a speech that sent all three stock indexes soaring. Traders excavated clues of an interest rate coming. Archie Hall, U.S. economics editor for The Economist, joins “The Takeout” to discuss.

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  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals path to rate cuts in Jackson Hole speech

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    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday highlighted twin economic risks of a slowing labor market and rising inflation, but opened the door to rate cuts in a widely anticipated speech at the annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming economic forum.

    “Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment are to the downside — a challenging situation,” Powell said in his speech. 

    The Fed will “proceed carefully” but the shifting balance of risks “may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” Powell said.

    Powell’s remarks signal the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates at its Sept. 17 meeting, which would mark the first reduction since December 2024, several economists said in research notes following the speech. Wall Street cheered Powell’s remarks, with the S&P 500 jumping 1.3% in late morning trading. 

    “That’s about as clear cut as Powell can get that he has shifted his view since July and is leaning toward a cut in September,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, in an email. “He justifies this change in view by acknowledging the downside risks to employment after the shocking July jobs report.”

    While Powell highlighted the slowdown in the labor market, he also maintained that inflation risks from Mr. Trump’s tariffs remain. The Fed has been closely watching the nation’s inflation rate, which remains stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% annual target and which has inched higher in recent months. 

    Under the Fed’s mandate, the central bank is tasked with keeping both inflation and unemployment low.

    Powell said the tariffs could result in a “one-time shift in the price level,” resulting in a short-term boost to inflation. 

    “Of course, ‘one-time’ does not mean ‘all at once’,” he added. “It will continue to take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains and distribution networks. Moreover, tariff rates continue to evolve, potentially prolonging the adjustment process.”

    Powell’s comments come as he faces a range of pressures, including President Trump’s repeated calls for his resignation and conflicting economic signals that could make it tougher for the Fed to fulfill its dual mandate of promoting full employment while keeping inflation in check. 

    When monetary policy makers opted to hold rates steady last month, Powell at that time highlighted the growing economic uncertainty stemming from Mr. Trump’s tariffs, while adding that he believed the economy remained on solid ground. 

    Yet subsequent economic data has pointed to a slowdown. Job growth — a key measure of the economy’s strength — significantly undershot economists’ forecasts, while a large downward revision in May and June payroll gains suggested the labor market was shakier than previously thought. 

    Prior to Powell’s speech, the probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting stood at about 72%, according to CME FedWatch, which bases its calculations on 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices.

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  • Stock futures tilt up ahead of Fed chief Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

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    U.S. stock futures inched higher Friday as investors await news out of Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak later this morning.

    S&P 500 futures were up 15 points, or 0.2%, as of 8:55 a.m. EST, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 140 points, or 0.3%. Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite futures were up 0.2%.

    World shares were mixed, in response to a drop in Walmart stock Thursday and as investors eagerly hope for signs of a rate cut from the Fed.

    Traders will be eyeing Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole economic forum to see if he hints at a potential rate cut at the central bank’s next meeting, which is scheduled for Sept. 17. The central leader is expected to speak at 10 a.m. at the event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    While Powell will likely touch on economic trends on Friday, he’s expected to keep the question of a Fed rate cut close to his chest.

    So far this year, the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which Powell serves as the chairman of, has held off on a rate cut, maintaining a cautious approach as it continues to assess the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs. That’s despite pressure from President Trump, who has repeatedly urged the central bank leader to lower rates.

    The Federal Reserve is tasked with keeping inflation in check while also maintaining maximum employment — a challenging mandate in light of the recent slowdown in job growth and signs that the president’s tariffs may be starting to drive up prices. The Consumer Price Index in July rose 2.7% on an annual basis, slightly cooler than economists’ forecasts, but still above the Fed’s 2% target.

    “What is critical in Fed Chair Powell’s speech today is how confident he is that inflation is moving down toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target,” Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok  said in a research note on Friday.

    contributed to this report.

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  • The craziest deportation goals

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    Trump’s campaign promises, coming to fruition: “Until June, deportations had lagged behind immigration arrests and detentions,” reports The New York Times. “By the first week of August, deportations reached nearly 1,500 people per day, according to the latest data, a pace not seen since the Obama administration.”

    So far during President Donald Trump’s second term, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has deported 180,000 people. The administration aims for 1 million this year, but if current numbers hold, it’ll be closer to 400,000. Stephen Miller, the ardent immigration restrictionist who has Trump’s ear, said on Fox News in late May that ICE would set a goal of a “minimum” of 3,000 arrests a day—far more than what it’s currently logging. But that’s beside the point: The administration seems interested in aggressive benchmarks and willing to use whatever tactics to get there, including compromising on apprehending the largest threats and instead going after people who’ve simply overstayed (a civil offense, not a criminal one).

    In fact, it’s looking very possible that the numbers will be juiced in order for these goals to be met, since the Trump administration enjoys its bragging rights. “The Department of Homeland Security says the total number of deportations so far under Mr. Trump is much higher—at 332,000. That figure includes people who are turned around or quickly deported at U.S. borders by Customs and Border Protection,” per the Times. There’s a fair bit of space between 180,000 and 332,000; expect more creative accounting as enforcement actions heat up further.

    Meanwhile, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is pushing for ICE to simply buy its own planes. “ICE uses charter planes to deport immigrants and has done so for years. The agency has typically chartered eight to 14 planes at a time for deportation flights, according to Jason Houser, who served as ICE chief of staff from 2022 to 2023. He said that allowed the Biden administration to deport roughly 15,000 immigrants per month on charter flights,” reports NBC News. To double these numbers, Houser says, you’d need to purchase about 30 planes, at $80–400 million a pop; so purchasing 30 passenger planes could cost anywhere from $2.4 billion to $12 billion. It’s estimated that ICE had chartered a little more than 1,000 flights by the end of July, at $100,000 to $200,000 per flight.

    Case in point: Angel Rodrigo Minguela Palacios, a strawberry delivery guy who had overstayed a tourist visa to escape his native Coahuila, a state in northern Mexico where he’d been the victim of stabbings and kidnappings, had been working for the same company for eight years and raising three kids with his girlfriend of eight years when Border Patrol nabbed him, reports The Los Angeles Times. He had been dropping off strawberries in Los Angeles’ Little Tokyo, outside of where California Gov. Gavin Newsom was holding an event—and where Border Patrol has lately taken to assembling.

    Border Patrol detained him and threw him in the “B-18” federal detention center in downtown L.A., where he’s been since.

    “When asked last week whether the person arrested outside the news conference had a criminal record, a Homeland Security spokesperson said the agency would share a criminal rap sheet when it was available,” reports the L.A. Times. “After four follow-up emails from a reporter, [Spokeswoman Tricia] McLaughlin on Saturday said agents had arrested ‘two illegal aliens’ in the vicinity of Newsom’s news conference—including ‘an alleged Tren de Aragua gang member and narcotics trafficker.’” Reporters asked for clarification as to whether that describes one person or two; then, “when presented with Minguela’s biographical information Monday, the department said he had been arrested because he overstayed his visa—a civil, not criminal, offense.”

    It appears Minguela has no criminal record, and was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. The kicker: When Minguela handed one of the agents arresting him a “Know Your Rights” card he keeps in his wallet, the agent reportedly said, “This is of no use to me.”


    Scenes from New York: Wild. But I do believe it.


    QUICK HITS

    • “SpaceX’s impressive track record, including the construction of the Starlink satellite-internet network and its innovation on reusable rocket technology, has had a deep impact on the space industry and US space policy. It has also made SpaceX among the most highly valued private companies in the world,” reports Bloomberg. But now, Starship—the first fully reusable orbital rocket, which Elon Musk says will be able to bring humans to Mars—is plagued by issues, which Musk is attempting to solve by shuffling around engineering talent internally. “To make Starship work, SpaceX is betting that it can draw resources away from its core rocket program at a time when the company faces weak competition. Some planned launches of SpaceX’s Starlink satellites on Falcon 9 rockets would potentially be pushed from the end of this year to early 2026 because of the surge of Falcon engineers working on Starship, the people familiar with the company’s planning said.”
    • “Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard began a fresh strike Tuesday against national security officials whom President Donald Trump deems political enemies, announcing she had revoked the clearances of 37 people, including several currently serving U.S. intelligence officials,” reports The Washington Post. Many of the officials who had their clearances revoked were involved in the 2016 Russian interference investigations and the Trump impeachment.
    • Really useful chart to help you make sense of how tariffs will raise prices:
    • Relatedly: “Automakers can’t eat the cost of tariffs forever, and September is a convenient time to adjust prices, as the 2026 models begin arriving in showrooms,” reports Axios. Interestingly, “if companies try to offset tariffs on imported cars with higher prices, they’ll need to make adjustments across their portfolio to maintain reasonable gaps between vehicle segments. [General Motors’] entry-level Chevrolet Trax, for example, is imported from South Korea, now subject to a 15% tariff. But if it raised the price of the Trax, it might end up costing about the same as a Chevy Equinox, currently made in Mexico but moving to the U.S. in 2027.” Industrywide, forecasters predict a roughly 6 percent increase in prices next year, best-case scenario.
    • Breaking the law:
    • “A former top City Hall advisor and current campaign confidante to Mayor Eric Adams attempted to give money to a reporter from THE CITY following a campaign event in Harlem Wednesday,” reports The City. “The failed payoff—a wad of cash in a red envelope stuffed inside an opened bag of Herr’s Sour Cream & Onion ripple potato chips—was made by Winnie Greco, a longtime Adams ally who resigned last year from her position as the mayor’s liaison to the Asian community after she was targeted in multiple investigations.”
    • Why elites still worship socialism:

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  • Monetary policy is not about interest rates, it’s about the money supply

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    The ongoing feud between President Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell centers on interest rates. This tells us more about the near-universal view of what constitutes monetary policy than it does about Trump or Powell. While Trump and Powell might quibble over the proper level for the Fed funds rate, they both think monetary policy is all about interest rates.

    Trump and Powell aren’t alone. Today, central bankers organize monetary policy around the overnight interest rate set on reserves supplied by central banks. Indeed, nearly every central bank these days describes its stance on monetary policy in terms of its policy rate. It’s not surprising, therefore, that most bankers, market analysts, economists, and financial journalists also embrace the view that monetary policy is all about central banks’ policy rates. That’s why markets wait with bated breath before each central bank policy rate decision.

    Why the obsession over interest rates? One reason hinges on the fact that for over the past 30 years or so, macroeconomic models are neo-Keynesian extensions of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. These put interest rates front and center. Armed with these models, economists and central bankers believe that monetary policy has its impact on the economy via changes in central banks’ policy rates.

    But that’s not what monetarists, who embrace the quantity theory of money, tell us. Unlike the neo-Keynesian macroeconomic models that exclude money, the quantity theory of money states that national income or nominal GDP is primarily determined by the movements of broad money, not by changes in interest rates.

    As it turns out, the data talk loudly and support the quantity theory of money. They do not support the neo-Keynesian models which are centered on changes in interest rates. Indeed, the correlations between changes in policy rates and changes in real and nominal economic activity are considerably worse than those between rates of change in the quantity of money and nominal GDP. Three recent major episodes support this conclusion.

    The case of Japan

    First, let’s consider the case of Japan between 1996 and 2019. Throughout this period, the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) overnight policy rate lingered at negligible levels, averaging 0.125%. As a result, most economists concluded that monetary policy in Japan was very “easy”. But monetarists, who focused on Japan’s anemic broad money (M2) growth of only 2.8% per year, concluded that monetary policy was “tight”. Which camp was right?

    Japan’s inflation averaged a de minimis 0.2% per year in the 1996-2019 period. It is clear that the monetarists were correct. By focusing on the BOJ’s overnight policy rate and by ignoring the money supply, most mainstream economists completely misdiagnosed the tenor of Japan’s monetary policy.

    The U.S. between 2010 and 2019

    Second, let’s consider the U.S. between 2010 and 2019. During most of this decade, the Fed funds rate was held down at 0.25%. In addition, the Fed engaged in three episodes of quantitative easing (QE). Many concluded that this amounted to very “easy” monetary conditions. They warned that inflation would result. In fact, broad money growth (M2) remained low and stable at 5.8% per year. In consequence, inflation also remained low, averaging just 1.8% per year between 2010 and 2019. As was the case with Japan, interest rates turned out to be a highly misleading indicator of the stance of monetary policy. The growth in the money supply was a much better guide to economic activity and inflation than the course of the Fed funds rate.

    The case of the pandemic

    Third, let’s once again consider the U.S.

    This time, we will examine the COVID pandemic period (2020-2024). Initially, interest rates were reduced to 0.25%, where they stayed between March 2020 and March 2022. In addition, the Fed conducted large-scale QE purchases. Because this policy mix had not caused inflation in the 2010-2019 period, the consensus of Keynesian economists expected the same results as before. By ignoring money growth, they predicted in 2020 and early 2021 that inflation would remain low. Indeed, some Keynesians predicted outright deflation. The deflationists argued that lockdowns were resulting in “weak aggregate supply,” that slow income growth was producing “weak aggregate demand,” and that unemployment, which reached 14.8% in April 2020, would remain elevated.

    By contrast, monetary economists focused on the explosion of broad money (M2) growth, which averaged 17.3% per year between March 2020 and March 2022. In consequence, they predicted, as early as April 2020, that there would be a substantial inflation.

    As it turned out, the monetarists were right once again. From spring 2021, inflation surged, with the U.S. CPI peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, and averaging 7.0% year-on-year between April 2021 and December 2022.

    Why are the monetarists consistently correct?

    In each of the major cases we present, the quantity theory of money generated the correct forecast, while the Keynesian theories, which are based on interest rates, resulted in misleading signals. Why?

    The reason why central bank policy rates are a misguided mechanism for steering and forecasting the course of the economy is because interest rates are, in large part, symptoms of past money growth, not necessarily drivers of future money growth. Changes in the quantity of money, on the other hand, directly fuel spending, and therefore correctly signal the direction of spending and inflation.

    When the quantity of money is increased substantially and for a sustained period, one of the first effects is that interest rates fall. But after six to nine months, business and consumer spending accelerate, and the demand for credit starts to increase. As a result, interest rates are pushed up. If the acceleration of money growth continues, inflation follows – typically after a year or so – and interest rates rise even further.

    So, the first effect of faster money growth is lower interest rates, but this is only a temporary effect. The second and more permanent effect is higher interest rates. This is what happened in the U.S. during the 2020-2024 period.

    Conversely, the first and temporary effect of slower money growth is higher interest rates. The second and more permanent effect is lower interest rates. This is what occurred in Japan between the mid-1990s and 2019.

    By ignoring the quantity theory of money and employing neo-Keynesian macroeconomic models, central bankers are often wrong-footed. They think that by managing policy rates, they are controlling monetary policy when in reality, they are just reacting to changes in the quantity of money that occurred in a prior period.

    For example, the Fed refused to raise rates in 2020 or 2021, asserting that inflation was “transitory”. The Fed only reluctantly started to raise rates in mid-2022. But the excess money creation the Fed had engineered in 2020-2021 generated inflation that peaked at 9.1% per year and forced the Fed to raise rates to 5.5%. If the Fed had refrained from letting the money supply surge in 2020-2021, the steep rate hikes would not have been needed, as evidenced by the experience of China and Switzerland, countries that did not allow excess money growth to occur during the COVID pandemic.

    Monetary policy’s Holy Grail is money, not interest rates.

    The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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    Steve H. Hanke, John Greenwood

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  • Trump’s rebate plan will push America toward a hyperprogressive tax code

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    President Donald Trump’s tariffs are bad. But even if one were opposed to the tariffs on principle, they might be seduced by the revenue they generate and the potential of that revenue to make some progress toward reducing the deficit. The tariffs are expected to collect $300 billion annually—nearly matching the amount collected by the corporate income tax ($350 billion). It’s not a small amount of money. Trump has stated that his goal is to eliminate income taxes and replace them with tariff revenue.

    Last month, Trump and Sen. Josh Hawley (R–Mo.) proposed tariff rebate checks, similar to the stimulus checks that were handed out during the COVID-19 pandemic, in an amount equal to the revenue that is to be collected—or possibly more. Hawley’s legislation proposes sending at least $600 to eligible adults and dependent children, and Trump has voiced support for sending money to “people of a certain income level,” who are most likely to spend that money quickly rather than save or invest it. This is a massively inflationary impulse, much like what we saw during the pandemic, and it will expand the deficit even more. This is a bad idea layered on top of bad ideas, and it will make the tax code even more progressive by effectively creating a negative income tax for those in the bottom tax brackets while fueling inflation.

    We are currently running a budget deficit of close to $2 trillion, which Trump has made practically no effort to reduce by cutting expenses. He pledges instead to cut the deficit by increasing revenue from tariffs but plans to hand out the windfall in the form of rebate checks. Our last experience with a give-back program like this was a quarter-century ago. 

    The government was running a fairly large budget surplus in FY 2000—totaling over $236 billion—and lawmakers made impassioned arguments about how to spend it: Some wanted new domestic programs, others pressed for tax cuts, while then–Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan urged paying down the debt and retiring Treasury bonds. When George W. Bush became president shortly thereafter, he proposed immediate tax relief in the form of $300 and $600 rebate checks to singles and married couples, respectively, a key piece of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001

    Bush prevailed, and roughly 95 million households received checks. The surplus evaporated, federal spending surged on defense and homeland security following 9/11 later that year, and that was the end of the surplus—forever.

    It is possible that the tariff rebate checks will not be inflationary. No one knows all the variables that cause inflation. Milton Friedman famously argued that it was “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” but inflation is also a psychological phenomenon—when people believe prices will rise, they often act in ways that make it happen. Trump is playing with fire, especially as he is in search of a Fed chairman who will be amenable to large interest rate cuts. The 2021–22 experience is instructive: a combination of pandemic-era stimulus checks, ultralow interest rates, and supply-chain bottlenecks helped fuel the fastest inflation in four decades, peaking at over 9 percent in mid-2022. We could find ourselves in an environment where Trump successfully creates inflation with the rebate checks and then has a captive Federal Reserve that is powerless to do anything about it.

    The Bush rebate checks totaled about $38 billion. Trump’s proposal could amount to hundreds of billions. Still, the inflationary effect would depend partly on whether households spend the checks quickly or save them.

    One of the criticisms of Bush’s rebate checks was that they were unevenly applied and did not go to the people who mainly paid the taxes—they went to everyone, which is a very populist approach. The argument could be made that, by aiming these proposed rebate checks specifically at lower-income households, they will benefit those who shoulder the hidden cost of tariffs, since tariffs disproportionately raise the price of basic consumer goods such as clothing, food, and household items, which make up a larger share of lower-income budgets.

    It’s possible that one of the ulterior motives of the tariffs is flattening the tax code. This would shift the tax burden to people of all income levels, rather than the current income tax, which burdens half of the population while the other half pays very little or nothing. That is not something that has been articulated by the administration, however, and returning all the collected revenue seems counterproductive.

    Trump has also proposed eliminating income taxes entirely for people making less than $200,000 a year, which would result in only the top 5 percent of taxpayers paying any income taxes at all. Trump is trending toward policies that would have only the wealthy pay taxes—an idea shared by the likes of Sens. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.). Fiscal conservatives, however, voted for Trump in droves on his promises to reduce the deficit and lower taxes, and they are having buyer’s remorse. We shouldn’t have tariffs, and to the extent that we have income taxes at all, they should be flat and fair. Instead, we are headed toward a hyperprogressive tax code, accompanied by growth-killing tariffs.

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    Jared Dillian

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  • Trump calls on Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to resign after she was accused of mortgage fraud

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    President Trump called on Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to resign on Wednesday after one of his administration’s officials alleged she had engaged in mortgage fraud and urged an investigation.

    Bill Pulte, who Mr. Trump appointed as director of the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency in March, made the allegations on X, claiming Cook committed mortgage fraud after designating two homes as her primary residence. 

    The housing regulator also shared an August 15 letter he sent to U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi and Department of Justice official Ed Martin outlining the alleged mortgage fraud. The letter points to documents obtained by the agency, which Pulte claims show Cook falsified bank and property records to “obtain more favorable loan terms.” 

    Pulte alleges Cook pledged in a June 2021 mortgage agreement to buy an Ann Arbor, Michigan property that she would make the home her primary residence for at least one year, but then two weeks later purchased an Atlanta condominium, which she allegedly also agreed to make her primary residence for a year.

    Mortgage rates for primary homes are typically lower than those offered by banks for secondary residences, such as vacation homes or investment properties, according to Rocket Mortgage.

    In response to Pulte’s allegations, Mr. Trump wrote “Cook must resign, now!!!” on Truth Social Wednesday morning. Pulte also called on the Federal Reserve governor to resign, and said on X that he believes the Justice Department will open a criminal investigation into the alleged mortgage fraud.

    The White House did not immediately respond to CBS MoneyWatch’s request for comment. A Federal Reserve spokesperson said they did not have anything to share at the time.

    Mr. Trump’s call for her to resign comes as the president has been urging the Fed to cut interest rates, while deriding Chairman Jerome Powell over the Fed’s caution in lowering borrowing costs. Cook holds one of the seats on the 12-person Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, the group at the central bank that makes the decision on whether to cut, hold or raise interest rates based on a majority vote among its members.

    The president has also been pushing Congress to confirm the nomination of Stephen Miran to the Fed’s Board of Governors. Mr. Trump appointed Miran, one of his top economic advisers, to serve on the board on an interim basis earlier this month following the resignation of Gov. Adriana Kugler

    Removing Cook from her role and adding Miran “would not materially alter the composition of the FOMC,” noted Jaret Seiberg, an analyst with TD Securities, in a research note.

    It’s also unlikely Miran could be confirmed before the Fed announces its next rate decision on Sept. 17 because the Senate doesn’t reconvene until Sept. 2 and a vote would require an “aggressive schedule” by the Senate banking committee, Seiberg added.

    Wall Street views it as likely that Mr. Trump’s wish for a rate cut will soon be granted, with economists pegging the probability at 88% that the Fed will lower rates on Sept. 17, according to financial data company FactSet.

    In the meantime, Seiberg said he views it as unlikely that Cook will resign before the September Fed meeting. 

    “For Cook, resigning will not end the legal probe. It is why we see no incentive for her to react to Pulte by departing before the next FOMC meeting,” he wrote. 

    Cook joined the Fed’s Board of Governors in May 2022, according to her biography. Prior to her appointment, Cook was an economics professor at Michigan State University. She has also served on the faculty of Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and worked as a senior economist on the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama.

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  • Wall St futures slip after tech selloff; earnings, Fed meet in focus

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    (Reuters) -U.S. stock index futures declined on Wednesday, following a tech selloff on Wall Street, as investors geared up for more retail earnings and a crucial Federal Reserve symposium later this week.

    The tech sector was behind much of the market recovery from the April selloff, but investors have started to take stock of the elevated valuations, sending the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to their worst day in more than two weeks on Tuesday.

    Deepening concerns of government interference with companies, sources said the Trump administration was looking into taking equity stakes in chip companies in exchange for grants under the CHIPS Act – just weeks after signing unprecedented revenue-sharing deals with Nvidia and AMD.

    Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Intel were marginally lower in premarket trading. Nvidia is expected to report quarterly results on Aug. 27.

    “For now, this looks like a mild and possibly necessary correction after an extremely strong run for this space,” said AJ Bell’s head of financial analysis, Danni Hewson.

    “Nvidia’s quarterly earning next week now look even more crucial than they already were.”

    A slew of earnings from big-box retailers are also in the spotlight now as investors seek a clearer picture on discretionary spending at a time when consumer sentiment has taken a hit from concerns around tariffs pushing up prices in the months ahead.

    Lowe’s declined 1% a day after rival Home Depot missed expectations on quarterly results.

    Estee Lauder fell 4.3%, while Target and TJX Companies were marginally lower ahead of their respective reports. Walmart’s results are due on Thursday.

    At 05:37 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 69 points, or 0.15%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 8.5 points, or 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 40.25 points, or 0.17%.

    Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting, where interest rates were left unchanged, are expected at 2:00 p.m. ET. It could set the tone before the central bank’s highly anticipated conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, between August 21 and 23.

    Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak on Friday and his remarks will be scrutinized for any clues on monetary policy, even as investors price in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in September, according to data compiled by LSEG.

    Traders “remain wary that Powell could strike a more hawkish tone, emphasizing tariff-driven inflation risks and pushing back against the degree of easing expected by the market,” said Bas Kooijman, CEO of DHF Capital S.A.

    Remarks from Governor Christopher Waller and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are expected later in the day.

    Recent economic data has suggested that the economy is yet to feel the full impact of tariffs and strategists expect the lingering uncertainty to temper market optimism, leaving the benchmark S&P 500 to potentially end the year just below current near-record levels.

    On the trade front, the Commerce Department slapped 50% import levies on more than 400 “derivative” steel and aluminum products.

    Among others, Futu Holdings gained 4.3% after reporting a jump in quarterly revenue.

    (Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath)

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  • The Fed’s Refusal To Cut Interest Rates Is Costing Americans

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    It’s not every week that sees a Federal Reserve development set to shape America for years to come. But two such developments recently occurred two days apart: On July 30, the Fed’s board decided to hold interest rates at their current level, and on Aug. 1, board governor Adriana Kugler resigned.

    In its latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed overruled the objections of two dissenting governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman (who favored a 0.25% interest rate cut).

    Instead, it decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at between 4.25% and 4.50%.

    That marks both the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change and the most governor dissents since 1993.

    The Federal Open Market Committee cites concerns of rising inflation and long-term ambiguity around tariffs as the reason for leaving the target interest rate unchanged.

    The Fed is employing the “wait-and-see” approach before committing to a rate reduction, hoping that two more rounds of monthly job and inflation data will assist in its decision. Fed Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell claims he “remains focused on achieving [the Fed’s] dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people.”

    Yet Powell simultaneously points to tariff-driven market uncertainty and strong national economic performance as excuses for inaction. These contradictory justifications, coupled with the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates immediately prior to the 2024 election, suggest this might be a political decision, not an economic one.

    In his press conference address, Powell referenced several indicators of economic resilience: business investment increase, payroll job gains, low unemployment, wage growth, and reduced inflation. That’s an environment Donald Trump administration’s policies created in just seven short months, even in spite of the Fed’s refusal to lower rates.

    While annual inflation has steadily decreased, as of June, it continued to run above the 2% objective—hitting 2.7%. The high inflation of the Joe Biden era still has lingering effects on Americans who experience decreased purchasing power, making everyday essentials like groceries and gas more expensive.

    Trump claims that by keeping interest rates high, the Fed is “hurting people” and preventing Americans “from buying houses”—but the Federal Reserve has consistently resisted pressure to cut rates.

    This inaction has sparked debates regarding the Fed’s dominance and its future role, if any, in the U.S. economic system. Now congressmen, economists, and American citizens are all calling on the Trump administration to audit the Fed and eliminate its role in determining interest rates.

    Such calls find further support from the fact that, while the U.S. has seen positive changes in many economic indicators, others still show room for improvement. As Powell explains, “GDP has moderated, activity in the housing sector remains weak, and [Personal Consumption Expenditure] PCE prices rose 2.5% over the last 12 months ending in June.”

    Due to Bidenflation, housing affordability and availability have become increasingly important political issues. The housing market is currently characterized by high costs and high mortgage interest rates.

    However, as the federal government continues to run massive deficits now and deep into the future, pressures for both inflation and interest rates to climb even higher will only intensify.

    By maintaining the current federal funds rate, the Federal Open Market Committee perpetuates its current policy of passing the costs of the federal deficit on to the American public through higher borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards, and small business and other loans.

    For prospective homebuyers, this can prevent them from achieving the American dream. For businesses, this can limit expansion and hiring—thus leading to slowed innovation and job creation.

    If the Fed were to reduce interest rates by just 25 basis points, mortgages would become more affordable, and competition among buyers would intensify.

    Lower target interest rates would reduce mortgage and business loan rates, making housing more affordable for Americans and incentivizing businesses to provide well-paying job opportunities.

    This would revive housing demand, bringing buyers back into the market, thus easing the housing affordability crisis.

    Not only that, but this interest rate reduction would decrease the cost of servicing the national debt.

    Despite the Fed’s decision to hold rates constant and Chairman Powell’s ambiguity about the future, economists predict a 25-basis-point cut at the Federal Open Market Committee’s September meeting.

    This prediction partly stems from the latest jobs report, which seems to indicate a slowing economic growth.

    That’s earned Powell the moniker “too late Powell” from Trump, who decries the chief’s reluctance to adjust interest rates.

    The same day that jobs report was released, Kugler, a 2023 Biden appointee, suddenly resigned her governor position (effective Aug. 8) without saying why.

    This vacancy offers Trump the chance to appoint a replacement, pending Senate confirmation, with monetary policy views that align closer to his values of low interest rates and low inflation.

    While it might be “too late” to lower interest rates for the August cycle, a newly appointed board member could give Trump another chance to advocate for Federal Reserve transparency and offer Americans more hope for a stable and robust economy.

    Syndicated with permission from The Daily Signal.

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    The Daily Signal

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  • Americans aged 30-40 are the ‘biggest losers’ in US society — here’s why

    Americans aged 30-40 are the ‘biggest losers’ in US society — here’s why

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    A quick Google search reveals that millennials are often characterized as entitled whiners who are quick to complain about their financial struggles — but it’s not a fair assessment.

    There’s a reason why millennials — typically defined as between the age of 28 and 43 — are on shakier financial ground compared to previous generations.

    Recent data from Allianz highlights the difference between millennials and boomers from an economic standpoint.

    It shows that, while boomers have been able to benefit from periods of strong economic growth, millennials have been hit with one financial crisis after another since reaching an age when it was finally possible to start saving and growing their wealth.

    According to a study from the American Journal of Sociology, the average millennial has 30% less wealth at the age of 35 than boomers did at the same age.

    Here’s how society’s “biggest losers” can get ahead after multiple setbacks.

    Millennials have had a number of economic factors working against them over the years.

    During the Great Recession, which lasted from 2007 to 2009, millennials — many of whom were in their 20s at the time — were impacted by high levels of unemployment, making it harder to not only build careers, but set aside savings and keep up with student loan payments.

    With student debt, millennials weren’t helped by the fact that college costs rose exponentially in the years leading up to their postsecondary education.

    The Education Data Initiative reports that the average annual cost of a public four-year institution was $514 in 1973-1974, when many boomers were in attendance.

    However, by the 2003-2004 academic year, when many millennials attended, that cost had increased to $4,587. This left millennials with high levels of student debt, a struggling economy, and a slow economic recovery that would ultimately last years.

    In October 2009, the national unemployment rate reached 10%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    Three years later, though, it was still at 7.8%. By contrast, boomers who entered the workforce in January 1970 enjoyed an unemployment rate of only 3.9%, according to the Federal Reserve.

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  • Gold prices have surged in 2024. Here’s how to get in on the gold rush

    Gold prices have surged in 2024. Here’s how to get in on the gold rush

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    Not all that glitters is gold, but the value of the precious metal has been surging this year.Gold prices have broken record after record, rising more than 30% in 2024 while hitting an all-time high of $2,748.23 this week.Video above: Treasure hunt that spanned New England overThe Federal Reserve’s recent dramatic half-point interest rate cut, geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election have created the conditions for prices to soar. The rally has been boosted by the central banks of China, India and Turkey easing their reliance on the U.S. dollar, as well as retail giant Costco stocking 1-ounce bullion bars.”Costco offering gold makes it as easy for a retail investor to buy gold as it is for them to buy household staples,” said Joseph Cavatoni, senior market strategist for the World Gold Council. “Buying gold has never been easier and more accessible.”While gold, typically invested in as a hedge against inflation, has shined this year, there are plenty of things to know before investors join the gold rush.Why hold gold?Traders tend to flock to gold during periods of uncertainty, betting that its value will hold up better than other assets, such as stocks, bonds and currencies, if an economy faces a downturn.”Between 2008 and 2012, the value of gold increased dramatically, as is evidenced by the 101.1-percent surge in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for gold,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted.”Gold does well in moments of risk. If you look at market drawdowns or systemic events in the market, that’s when gold really shines,” said Cavatoni.How do you actually go about buying gold?For a new gold buyer, Cavatoni says the first step is considering your objective in holding gold, be it to diversify your portfolio or as a safe-haven asset.From there it’s a matter of deciding whether to make the investment using financial instruments like gold-backed exchange-traded funds or by purchasing it in physical form.Both come with their own considerations. Delivery, storage and safekeeping, for instance, are all factors for holding gold in physical form.Another consideration when buying gold in the retail market is how the sticker price of the bullion compares to the spot price of gold.”You need to make sure that you’re comfortable with that price level — that you’re buying the investment that you want and not being offered something that might be a little bit more collectible,” Cavatoni said.From banks to reputable brick-and-mortar and online retailers, gold buyers have choices in where to invest. But Cavatoni advises having a “round-trip mentality” when purchasing physical gold, emphasizing the importance of the selling stage as much as the purchase process.”When it comes time to holding it for as long as you’d like and selling it, make sure you have a trusted partner that you can go back to and make that sale,” he said.Other things to keep in mind are the gold’s purity and the form it comes in.Products like gold jewelry might command higher premiums based off design and artistic value, which introduce more complexities.On the other hand, gold-backed ETFs free consumers from the considerations that need to be made when purchasing physical gold.”It’s just like buying a stock,” Cavatoni said. “You can do that commission-free on a lot of the platforms these days, so it’s very cheap to get in and out.”But as with any investment, Cavatoni says acting prudently and doing your homework when purchasing gold in any form takes precedence over speed.”If something sounds too good to be true, then it might be not true. Make sure you’re careful before you make the investment,” he said. “You don’t need to rush into owning gold.”

    Not all that glitters is gold, but the value of the precious metal has been surging this year.

    Gold prices have broken record after record, rising more than 30% in 2024 while hitting an all-time high of $2,748.23 this week.

    Video above: Treasure hunt that spanned New England over

    The Federal Reserve’s recent dramatic half-point interest rate cut, geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election have created the conditions for prices to soar. The rally has been boosted by the central banks of China, India and Turkey easing their reliance on the U.S. dollar, as well as retail giant Costco stocking 1-ounce bullion bars.

    “Costco offering gold makes it as easy for a retail investor to buy gold as it is for them to buy household staples,” said Joseph Cavatoni, senior market strategist for the World Gold Council. “Buying gold has never been easier and more accessible.”

    While gold, typically invested in as a hedge against inflation, has shined this year, there are plenty of things to know before investors join the gold rush.

    Why hold gold?

    Traders tend to flock to gold during periods of uncertainty, betting that its value will hold up better than other assets, such as stocks, bonds and currencies, if an economy faces a downturn.

    “Between 2008 and 2012, the value of gold increased dramatically, as is evidenced by the 101.1-percent surge in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for gold,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted.

    “Gold does well in moments of risk. If you look at market drawdowns or systemic events in the market, that’s when gold really shines,” said Cavatoni.

    How do you actually go about buying gold?

    For a new gold buyer, Cavatoni says the first step is considering your objective in holding gold, be it to diversify your portfolio or as a safe-haven asset.

    From there it’s a matter of deciding whether to make the investment using financial instruments like gold-backed exchange-traded funds or by purchasing it in physical form.

    Both come with their own considerations. Delivery, storage and safekeeping, for instance, are all factors for holding gold in physical form.

    Another consideration when buying gold in the retail market is how the sticker price of the bullion compares to the spot price of gold.

    “You need to make sure that you’re comfortable with that price level — that you’re buying the investment that you want and not being offered something that might be a little bit more collectible,” Cavatoni said.

    From banks to reputable brick-and-mortar and online retailers, gold buyers have choices in where to invest. But Cavatoni advises having a “round-trip mentality” when purchasing physical gold, emphasizing the importance of the selling stage as much as the purchase process.

    “When it comes time to holding it for as long as you’d like and selling it, make sure you have a trusted partner that you can go back to and make that sale,” he said.

    Other things to keep in mind are the gold’s purity and the form it comes in.

    Products like gold jewelry might command higher premiums based off design and artistic value, which introduce more complexities.

    On the other hand, gold-backed ETFs free consumers from the considerations that need to be made when purchasing physical gold.

    “It’s just like buying a stock,” Cavatoni said. “You can do that commission-free on a lot of the platforms these days, so it’s very cheap to get in and out.”

    But as with any investment, Cavatoni says acting prudently and doing your homework when purchasing gold in any form takes precedence over speed.

    “If something sounds too good to be true, then it might be not true. Make sure you’re careful before you make the investment,” he said. “You don’t need to rush into owning gold.”

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  • Nasdaq 100 Falls 2% as Tech-Led Stock Rout Deepens: Markets Wrap

    Nasdaq 100 Falls 2% as Tech-Led Stock Rout Deepens: Markets Wrap

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    (Bloomberg) — A selloff in the world’s largest tech companies weighed heavily on stocks, while Treasury yields climbed amid bets the Federal Reserve will take a more measured approach on rate cuts.

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    Equities extended losses into a third straight day, with the S&P 500 breaking below 5,800. Nvidia Corp. tumbled 4%, leading megacaps lower. Apple Inc. slid 3% after a closely followed analyst said iPhone 16 orders were cut by about 10 million units from the fourth quarter through the first half of 2025. As Tesla Inc. gets ready to report its results, Wall Street will be watching for signs that slowing sales are close to a trough.

    FED: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LITTLE CHANGED IN NEARLY ALL DISTRICTS

    Investors face a number of risks that could be making them less willing to jump into the market: The next three weeks capture big tech earnings, October’s payrolls report, and the US election, followed by the Fed meeting. In another sign of Wall Street’s perception of future risk, the term premium on 10-year Treasury notes — an expression of the extra yield investors demand for owning the debt rather than rolling over shorter-term securities — hit the highest since November.

    “This is about price exhaustion, this is about election exhaustion, it’s about campaign exhaustion, it’s about Fed exhaustion, it’s about policy exhaustion, it’s about geopolitical exhaustion,” said Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth. “It’s about how stocks are stretched and it’s about the need for stocks to retreat, test lower, shake the branches, see who falls out and then move on.”

    The S&P 500 fell 1.4%. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.3%. Boeing Co. dropped after signaling the company’s woes will take time to fix. Qualcomm Inc. got hit as Arm Holdings Plc canceled a license that allowed the company to use Arm’s intellectual property to design chips. Texas Instruments Inc. climbed after its results.

    Treasury 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.25%. A $13 billion sale of 20-year bonds tailed at the highest yield since May. The dollar rose against all of its Group-of-10 peers, on pace for its best month since 2022. The yen hit the lowest in almost three months, reviving concern that Japan may intervene. The loonie slid after the Bank of Canada stepped up the pace of easing.

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