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Tag: Federal Reserve System

  • Federal Reserve cuts key rate, sees healthier economy next year

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate by a quarter-point for the third time in a row Wednesday but signaled that it may leave rates unchanged in the coming months.

    The cut decreased the Fed’s rate to about 3.6%, the lowest it has been in nearly three years. Lower rates from the Fed can bring down borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards over time, though market forces can also affect those rates.

    Chair Jerome Powell suggested at a news conference that after six rate cuts in the past two years, the central bank can step back and see how hiring and inflation develop. In a set of quarterly economic projections, Fed officials signaled they expect to lower rates just once next year.

    Fed officials “will carefully evaluate the incoming data,” Powell said, adding that the Fed is “well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves.”

    The chair also said that the Fed’s key rate was close to a level that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy, a significant shift from earlier this year, when he described the rate as high enough to slow the economy and quell inflation. With rates closer to a more neutral level, the bar for further rate cuts is likely higher that it was this fall.

    “We believe the labor market will have to noticeably weaken to warrant another rate cut soon,” Ryan Sweet, global chief economist at Oxford Economics, said.

    Three Fed officials dissented from the move, the most dissents in six years and a sign of deep divisions on a committee that traditionally works by consensus. Two officials voted to keep the Fed’s rate unchanged: Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Fed, and Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed. Stephen Miran, whom Trump appointed in September, voted for a half point cut.

    December’s meeting could usher in a more contentious period for the Fed. Officials are split between those who support reducing rates to bolster hiring and those who’d prefer to keep rates unchanged because inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target. Unless inflation shows clear signs of coming fully under control, or unemployment worsens, those divisions will likely remain.

    “What you see is some people feel we should stop here and we’re in the right place and should wait, and some people think we should cut more next year,” Powell said.

    A stark sign of the Fed’s divisions was the wide range of cuts that the 19 members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee penciled in for 2026. Seven projected no cuts next year, while eight forecast that the central bank would implement two or more reductions. Four supported just one. Only 12 out of 19 members vote on rate decisions.

    President Donald Trump on Wednesday criticized the cut as too small, and said he would have preferred “at least double.” Trump could name a new Fed chair as soon as later this month to replace Powell when his term ends in May. Trump’s new chair is likely to push for sharper rate cuts than many officials will support.

    Stocks jumped in response to the Fed’s move, in part because some Wall Street investors expected Powell to be more forceful in shutting down the possibility of future cuts. The broad S&P 500 stock index rose 0.7% and closed near an all-time high reached in October.

    Powell was also optimistic about the economy’s growth next year, and said that consumer spending remains resilient while companies are still investing in artificial intelligence infrastructure. He also suggested growing worker efficiency could contribute to faster growth without more inflation.

    Still, Powell said the committee reduced borrowing costs out of concern that the job market is even weaker than it appears. While government data shows that the economy has added just 40,000 jobs a month since April, Powell said that figure could be revised lower by as much as 60,000, which would mean employers have actually been shedding an average of 20,000 jobs a month since the spring.

    “It’s a labor market that seems to have significant downside risks,” Powell told reporters. “People care about that. That’s their jobs.”

    The Fed met against the backdrop of elevated inflation that has frustrated many Americans, with prices higher for groceries, rents, and utilities. Consumer prices have jumped 25% in the five years since COVID.

    “We hear loud and clear how people are experiencing really high costs,” Powell said Wednesday. “A lot of that isn’t the current rate of inflation, a lot of that is e mbedded high costs due to higher inflations in 2022-2023.”

    Powell said inflation could move higher early next year, as more companies pass tariff costs to consumers as they reset prices to start the year. Inflation should decline after that, he added, but it’s not guaranteed.

    “We just came off an experience where inflation turned out to be much more persistent than anyone expected,” he said, referring to the spike in 2022. “Is that going to happen now? That’s the risk.”

    The Fed’s policy meeting took place as the Trump administration moves toward picking a new Fed chair to replace Powell when his term finishes in May. Trump’s nominee is likely to push for sharper rate cuts than many officials may support.

    Trump has hinted that he will likely pick Kevin Hassett, his top economic adviser. But on Wednesday, Trump said he would meet with Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor who has also been on the short list to replace Powell.

    Trump added that he wants someone who will lower interest rates. “Our rates should be the lowest rates in the world,” he said.

    A government report last week showed that overall and core prices rose 2.8% in September from a year earlier, according to the Fed’s preferred measure. That is far below the spikes in inflation three years ago but still painful for many households after the big run-up since 2020.

    Adding to the Fed’s challenges, job gains have slowed sharply this year and the unemployment rate has risen for three straight months to 4.4%. While that is still a low rate historically, it is the highest in four years. Layoffs are also muted, so far, as part of what many economists call a “low hire, low fire” job market.

    The Fed typically keeps its key rate elevated to combat inflation, while it often reduces borrowing costs when unemployment worsens to spur more spending and hiring.

    Powell will preside over only three more Fed meetings before he steps down. On Wednesday, he was asked about his legacy.

    “I really want to turn this job over to whoever replaces me with the economy in really good shape,” he said. “I want inflation to be under control, coming back down to 2%, and I want the labor market to be strong.”

    ___

    Associated Press Writers Collin Binkley and Alex Veiga in Los Angeles contributed to this report.

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  • Another rally for Alphabet leads the US stock market higher

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    NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. stock market rallied on Monday, at the start of a week with shortened trading because of the Thanksgiving holiday.

    The S&P 500 climbed 1.5% for one of its best days since the summer and added to its jump from Friday, finding some strength following a shaky few weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 202 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 2.7%.

    Stocks got a lift from rising hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut its main interest rate again at its next meeting in December, a move that could boost the economy and investment prices.

    The market also benefited from strength for stocks caught up in the artificial-intelligence frenzy. Alphabet, which has been getting praise for its newest Gemini AI model, rallied 6.3% and was one of the strongest forces lifting the S&P 500. Nvidia rose 2.1%.

    Monday’s gains followed sharp swings in recent weeks, not just day to day but also hour to hour, caused by uncertainty about what the Fed will do with interest rates and whether too much money is pouring into AI and creating a bubble. All the worries are creating the biggest test for investors since an April sell-off, when President Donald Trump shocked the world with his “Liberation Day” tariffs.

    Despite all the recent fear, the S&P 500 remains within 2.7% of its record set last month.

    “It’s reasonable to expect that stocks will experience periods of pressure from time to time, which, historically, is quite healthy for longer-term strength,” Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise chief market strategist, wrote in a note to investors.

    Several more tests lie ahead this week for the market, which could create more swings, though none loom quite as large as last week’s profit report from Nvidia or the delayed jobs report from the U.S. government for September.

    One of the biggest tests will arrive Tuesday, when the U.S. government will deliver data showing how bad inflation was at the wholesale level in September.

    Economists expect it to show a 2.6% rise in prices from a year earlier, the same inflation rate as August. A worse-than-expected reading could deter the Fed from cutting its main interest rate in December for a third time this year, because lower rates can worsen inflation. Some Fed officials have already argued against a December cut in part because inflation has stubbornly remained above their 2% target.

    Traders are nevertheless betting on a nearly 85% probability that the Fed will cut rates next month, up from 71% on Friday and from less than a coin flip’s chance seen a week ago, according to data from CME Group.

    U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. A day later, it’s on to the rush of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

    On Wall Street, U.S.-listed shares of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk fell 5.6% Monday after it reported that its Alzheimer’s drug failed to slow progression of the disease in a trial.

    Grindr dropped 12.1% after saying it’s breaking off talks with a couple of investors who had offered to buy the company, which helps its gay users connect with each other. A special committee of the company’s board of directors said it had questions about the financing for the deal by the investors, who collectively own more than 60% of Grindr’s stock.

    All told, the S&P 500 rose 102.13 points to 6,705.12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 202.86 to 46,448.27, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 598.92 to 22,872.01.

    Bitcoin, meanwhile, continued it sharp swings. It was sitting around $89,000 after bouncing between $82,000 and $94,000 over the last week. It was near $125,000 last month.

    In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed in Europe and Asia.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 2% for one of the world’s biggest moves. It got a boost from a 4.7% leap for Alibaba, which has reported strong demand for its updated Qwen AI app. Alibaba is due to report earnings on Tuesday.

    In the bond market, Treasury yields eased a bit. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.03% from 4.06% late Friday.

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    AP Business Writers Matt Ott and Elaine Kurtenbach contributed.

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  • Stocks climb on hopes for lower interest rates as Dow rallies 660 points

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    NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. stock market climbed again Tuesday on hopes for a coming cut to interest rates.

    The S&P 500 rose 0.9% after breaking out of a morning lull and is back within 1.8% of its all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 664 points, or 1.4%, and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.7%.

    Stocks got a boost from easing yields in the bond market. Lower interest rates can cover up many sins in financial markets, including prices going too high, and hopes are strong that the Federal Reserve will cut its main interest rate at its next meeting to juice the economy further.

    A raft of mixed economic data on Tuesday left traders betting on a nearly 83% probability that the Fed will cut in December, according to data from CME Group. That’s roughly the same as a day before and up sharply from the coin flip’s chance that they saw just a week ago.

    One of Tuesday’s reports said that shoppers bought less at U.S. retailers in September than economists expected. Another said confidence among U.S. consumers worsened by more in November than expected, a second signal that the economy could potentially use the help of lower interest rates.

    Easier rates can boost the economy by encouraging households and companies to borrow more and investors to pay higher prices for investments than they would otherwise.

    A third report, meanwhile, said inflation at the wholesale level was a touch worse in September than economists expected, but a closely tracked underlying trend was slightly better. That’s important because lower interest rates can make inflation worse, and high inflation is the main deterrent that could keep the Fed from cutting rates.

    After taking all the data together, economists suggested the Fed and its chair, Jerome Powell, could be leaning toward cutting rates on Dec. 10. The Fed has already cut rates twice this year in hopes of shoring up the slowing job market.

    “Taking a pause on rate cuts would probably do more damage to sentiment than a cut would help,” according to Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, who also said “Powell doesn’t need to be the Grinch that stole Christmas.”

    Easier interest rates can give particularly big boosts to smaller companies, because many of them need to borrow to grow. The Russell 2000 index of the smallest U.S. stocks jumped 2.1% to lead the market.

    Elsewhere on Wall Street, several retailers leaped after delivering stronger profits for the summer than analysts expected.

    Abercrombie & Fitch soared 37.5% after the apparel seller reported a better profit than expected. It also raised the bottom end of its forecasted range for revenue and profit over the full year.

    Kohl’s surged 42.5% after reporting a profit for the latest quarter, when analysts were expecting a loss. Best Buy rose 5.3% after boosting its profit forecast for the full year following a better-than-expected third quarter, citing strength across computing, gaming and mobile phones.

    Dick’s Sporting Goods erased an early drop of 4% to add 0.2%. It raised its forecast for results at its Dick’s stores, though its purchase of Foot Locker is requiring some work. Executive Chairman Ed Stack said the company is “cleaning out the garage” at Foot Locker by clearing inventory, closing poorly performing stores and making other moves.

    Swings also continued in the artificial-intelligence industry, which has battled concerns that too many dollars are pouring into data centers and may not produce the revolution of bigger profits and productivity that proponents are predicting.

    Alphabet rose another 1.5%, continuing a strong run on excitement about its recently released Gemini AI model. Chinese giant Alibaba, meanwhile, saw its stock that trades in the United States fall 2.3% after losing an early gain. It reported stronger revenue than analysts expected for the latest quarter thanks in part to the AI boom, but its overall profit fell short of forecasts.

    Some chip companies dropped sharply following a report from The Information that Meta Platforms is in talks to spend billions of dollars on AI chips from Alphabet instead of them. Nvidia sank 2.6% and Advanced Micro Devices dropped 4.1%.

    All told, the S&P 500 rose 60.76 points to 6,765.88. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 664.18 to 47,112.45, and the Nasdaq composite gained 153.59 to 23,025.59.

    In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.00% from 4.04% late Monday.

    In stock markets abroad, indexes rose across Europe and Asia. Germany’s DAX returned 1%, and stocks in Shanghai climbed 0.9% for two of the world’s bigger moves.

    ___

    AP Business Writer Elaine Kurtenbach contributed.

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  • Trump nominates new CFPB director, but White House says agency is still closing

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    NEW YORK (AP) — President Trump nominated Stuart Levenbach as the next director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Wednesday, using a legal maneuver to keep his budget director Russell Vought as acting director of the bureau while the Trump administration continues on its plan to shut down the consumer financial protection agency.

    Levenbach is currently an associate director inside the Office of Management and Budget, handling issues related to natural resources, energy, science and water issues. Levenbach’s resume shows significant experience dealing with science and natural resources issues, acting as chief of staff of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration during Trump’s first term.

    Levenbach’s nomination is not meant to go through to confirmation, an administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss personnel matters. Under the Vacancies Act, Vought can only act as acting director for 210 days, but now that Trump has nominated someone to the position, that clock has been suspended until the Senate approves or denies Levenbach’s confirmation as director. Vought is Levenbach’s boss.

    The CFPB has been nonfunctional much of the year. Many of its employees have been ordered not to work, and the only major work the bureau is doing is unwinding the regulations and rules it put into place during Trump’s first term and during the Biden administration.

    While in the acting director role, Vought has signaled that he wishes to dismantle, or vastly diminish, the bureau.

    The latest blow to the bureau’s future came earlier this month, when the White House said it does not plan to withdraw any funds from the Federal Reserve, which is where the bureau gets its funding, to fund the bureau past Dec. 31.

    The White House and the Justice Department are using a legal interpretation of the law that created the bureau, the Dodd-Frank Act, that the Fed must be profitable in order to fund the CFPB’s operations. Since roughly 2022, the Fed has been cash-flow negative since it owns bonds from the COVID-19 pandemic that pay very low interest but must pay out higher interest to the banks that deposit reserves with it. This means, on paper, the Fed is not earning a profit at the moment and therefore has no money to allot to the CFPB.

    Several judges have rejected this argument when it was brought up by companies, but it’s never been the position of the government until this year that the CFPB requires the Fed to be profitable to provided the CFPB with operating funds.

    “Donald Trump’s sending the Senate a new nominee to lead the CFPB looks like nothing more than a front for Russ Vought to stay on as Acting Director indefinitely as he tries to illegally close down the agency,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, in a statement.

    The bureau was created after the 2008 financial crisis as part of the Dodd-Frank Act, a law passed to overhaul the financial system and require banks to hold more capital to avoid another financial crisis. The CFPB was created to be a independent advocate for consumers to help them avoid bad actors in the financial system.

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  • U.S. trade deficit drops 24% in August as Trump’s tariffs reduce imports

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. trade deficit fell by nearly 24% in August as President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs pushed imports lower.

    In a report delayed for more than seven weeks by the federal government shutdown, the Commerce Department said Wednesday that the the gap between what the United States buys from other countries and what it sells them fell to $59.6 billion in August, from $78.2 billion in July.

    Imports of goods and services dropped 5% to $340.4 billion in August from July when U.S. companies were stocking up on foreign products before Trump finalized taxes on products from almost every country on earth. Those levies went into effect Aug. 7.

    U.S. exports blipped up 0.1% in August to $280.8 billion.

    Customers shop at the Reading Terminal Market in Philadelphia, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

    Trump, charging that America’s persistent trade deficits mean that other countries have taken advantage of the U.S., has overturned decades of U.S. policy in favor of free trade, slapping double-digit tariffs on imports from most countries and targeting specific products, including steel, copper and autos, with their own levies.

    Still, the U.S. trade deficit is up so far in 2025, coming in at $713.6 billion through August, up 25% from $571.1 billion in January-August 2024.

    A drop in imports and the trade deficit is good for economic growth because foreign products are subtracted from the nation’s gross domestic product. GDP is the output of a nation’s goods and services.

    “August’s smaller trade deficit will be a tailwind for third quarter real GDP, since it means that more U.S. expenditures were directed toward domestically-produced goods and services rather than foreign ones,” Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, wrote in a commentary. “While this release is quite dated because of the government shutdown, it contributes to evidence that the economy was growing briskly in the third quarter.’’

    A worker arranges produce at the Reading Terminal Market in Philadelphia, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

    A worker arranges produce at the Reading Terminal Market in Philadelphia, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

    Tariffs, which Trump says will protect U.S. industries and lure factories to America, are paid by importers who typically attempt to pass along the higher cost to their customers. Economists say Trump’s tariffs are one reason U.S. inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

    After voters’ dissatisfaction with the high cost of living led to big Democratic gains in the Nov. 4 elections, the president relented and dropped tariffs last week on beef, coffee, tea, fruit juice, cocoa, spices, bananas, oranges, tomatoes and certain fertilizers, saying they “may, in some cases” have contributed to higher prices.

    His tariffs are also facing a legal challenge that has gone to the Supreme Court. In a Nov. 5, hearing, the justices sounded skeptical that the president had the authority to bypass Congress and slap unlimited tariffs on most imports simply by declaring a national emergency.

    ____

    AP Writer Josh Boak contributed to this report.

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  • Sharp disagreements over economy threaten Federal Reserve interest rate cut

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — What was once seen as a near-certain cut in interest rates next month now looks more like a coin flip as Federal Reserve officials sharply disagree over the economy’s health and whether stubborn inflation or weak hiring represent a bigger threat.

    In several speeches in the past week, some policymakers have registered greater concern over persistent inflation in an echo of the “affordability” concerns that played a large role in elections earlier this month.

    At the same time, another camp is much more concerned about meager hiring and the threat that the “low-hire, low-fire“ job market could worsen into one where layoffs become more widespread.

    The turmoil on the Fed’s 19-member interest-rate setting committee reflects a deeply uncertain economic outlook brought about by multiple factors, including tariffs, artificial intelligence, and changes in immigration and tax policies.

    “It’s reflective of a ton of uncertainty,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at M&T Bank. “It’s not surprising at all that there’s a wide divergence of opinions.”

    Fewer rate cuts by the Fed could leave borrowing costs for homes and cars elevated. More expensive mortgages and auto loans contribute to the widespread view, according to polls, that the cost of living is too high.

    Some Fed watchers say that an unusually high number of dissents are possible at the December 9-10 meeting, regardless of whether the central bank reduces rates or not. Krishna Guha, an analyst at Evercore ISI, said a decision to cut could lead to as many as four or five dissents, while a decision to keep rates unchanged could produce three.

    Four dissenting votes would be highly unusual, given the Fed’s history of seeking consensus. The last time four officials dissented was in 1992, under then-Chair Alan Greenspan.

    Fed governor Christopher Waller on Monday noted that critics of the Fed often accuse it of “group think,” since many of its decisions are made unanimously.

    “People who are accusing us of this, get ready,” Waller said Monday in remarks in London. “You might see the least group think you’ve seen … in a long time.”

    The differences have been exacerbated by the government shutdown’s interruption of economic data, a particular challenge for a Fed that Chair Jerome Powell has often described as “data dependent.” The government’s last jobs report was for August, and inflation for September.

    September jobs data will finally be published Thursday, and are expected to show a small gain of 50,000 jobs that month and an unchanged unemployment rate at a still-low 4.3%.

    For now, Wall Street investors put the odds of a December rate cut at 50-50, according to CME Fedwatch, down sharply from nearly 94% a month ago. The decline has contributed to the stock market’s drops this week.

    After cutting their key rate in September for the first time this year, Fed policymakers signaled they expected to cut twice more, in October and December.

    But after implementing a second reduction Oct. 29, Powell poured cold water on the prospects of another cut, describing it as “not a foregone conclusion — far from it.”

    And speeches last week by a raft of regional Fed officials pushed the market odds of a December cut even lower. Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said, “in all of my conversations with contacts across New England, I hear concerns about elevated prices.”

    Collins said that keeping the Fed’s key rate at its current level of about 3.9% would help bring inflation down. The economy “has been holding up quite well” even with interest rates where they are, she added.

    Several other regional presidents voiced similar concerns, including Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed, Alberto Musalem of the St. Louis Fed, and Jeffrey Schmid at the Kansas City Fed. Musalem, Collins, and Schmid are among the 12 officials who vote on policy this year. Schmid dissented in October in favor of keeping rates unchanged.

    “When I talk to contacts in my district, I hear continued concern over the pace of price increases,” Schmid said Friday. “Some of this has to do with the effect of tariffs on input prices, but it is not just tariffs — or even primarily tariffs — that has people worried. I hear concerns about rising health care costs and insurance premiums, and I hear a lot about electricity.”

    On Monday, however, Waller argued that sluggish hiring is a bigger concern, and renewed his call for a rate cut next month.

    “The labor market is still weak and near stall speed,” he said. “Inflation through September continued to show relatively small effects from tariffs and support the hypothesis that tariffs … are not a persistent source of inflation.”

    Waller also dismissed the concern — voiced by Schmid and others — that the Fed should keep rates elevated because inflation has topped the Fed’s 2% target for five years. So far that hasn’t led the public to worry that inflation will stay elevated for an extended period, Waller noted.

    “You can’t just sort of say it’s been above target for five years, so I’m not going to cut,” he added. “You got to give us better answers than that.”

    There could be consensus for an interest rate cut if, say, new data for October and November show the economy shedding jobs, according to Esther George, the former president of the Kansas City Fed.

    It’s also worth noting that many economists had expected multiple dissents in September, but instead only Stephen Miran, a governor appointed that month by President Donald Trump, voted against the rate cut decision, in favor of an even bigger reduction.

    “Registering a dissent is a hard decision, and I think you’re going to find people that are speaking today that wouldn’t follow through with a vote in that direction,” she said. “I think you’re going to find enough consensus, whichever way they go.”

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  • Asian shares sink, tracking a tech-led sell-off on Wall Street

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    BANGKOK (AP) — Asian shares tumbled on Tuesday, with benchmarks in Tokyo and Seoul sinking more than 3%, after Nvidia and other artificial-intelligence -related shares pulled U.S. stocks lower.

    U.S. futures dropped, with the contract for the S&P 500 down 0.6% while the future for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.4%.

    Computer chip giant Nvidia, at the center of the craze over AI, is due to report its earnings on Wednesday. Worries that stock prices of such companies have shot too high have roiled world markets recently, with big swings in places that rely heavily on trade in computer chips such as South Korea and Taiwan.

    Also hanging over the markets is the release due Thursday of U.S. employment data that was delayed by the prolonged government shutdown.

    Regional markets felt a chill after the yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds surged to 3.31%, reflecting rising risks as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi prepares to boost government spending and push back the timetable for bringing down Japan’s huge national debt.

    The yen was trading above 155 to the U.S. dollar, near its highest level since February. On Monday, the yen fell to its lowest level against the euro since 1999, when the unified European currency was launched.

    Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 was down 3% at 48,835.20 by midday, with selling of tech shares leading the decline. Chip maker Tokyo Electron shed 5.4%, while equipment maker Advantest dropped 4.6%.

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    In Seoul, the Kospi fell 3.1% to 3,960.82. Samsung Electronics dropped 2.9%, while chip maker SK Hynix shed 5.7%.

    In Taiwan, the Taiex fell 2.3% as TSMC, the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, declined 2.4%.

    Chinese markets were not immune from heavy selling.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.5% to 25,997.20, while the Shanghai Composite index slipped 0.6% to 3,949.83.

    In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gave up 2.1% to 8,452.50.

    On Monday, the S&P 500 fell 0.9% to 6,672.41, pulling further from its all-time high set late last month. The Dow industrials dropped 1.2% to 46,590.24, while the Nasdaq composite sank 0.8% to 22,708.07.

    Nvidia dropped 1.8%, though it is still up nearly 40% this year. Losses for other AI winners included a 6.4% slide for Super Micro Computer.

    Other areas of the market that had been high-momentum winners also sank. Bitcoin extended its decline, dragging down Coinbase Global by 7.1% and Robinhood Markets by 5.3%. Early Tuesday, it was down 2% at $90,110.

    Critics have been warning that the U.S. stock market could be primed for a drop because of how high prices have shot since April, leaving them looking too expensive.

    However, Alphabet gained 3.1% after Berkshire Hathaway said it has built a $4.34 billion ownership stake in Google’s parent company. Berkshire Hathaway, run by famed investor Warren Buffett, is notorious for trying to buy stocks only when they look like good values while avoiding anything that looks too expensive.

    Another source of potential disappointment for Wall Street is what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates. The expectation had been that the Fed would keep cutting interest rates in hopes of shoring up the slowing job market.

    But the downside of lower interest rates is that they can make inflation worse, and inflation has stubbornly remained above the Fed’s 2% target.

    Fed officials have also pointed to the U.S. government’s shutdown, which delayed the release of updates on the job market and other signals about the economy. With less information and less certainty about how things are going, some Fed officials have suggested it may be better to wait in December to get more clarity.

    A strong jobs report on Thursday would likely stay the Fed’s hand on rate cuts, while figures that are very weak would raise worries about the economy.

    In other dealings early Tuesday, U.S. benchmark crude oil lost 42 cents to $59.49 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, gave up 43 cents to $63.77 per barrel.

    The dollar fell to 155.08 Japanese yen from 155.26 yen. The euro rose to $1.1600 from $1.1593.

    ___

    AP Business Writers Stan Choe and Matt Ott contributed.

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  • Wall Street scrambles back from a big morning loss as Nvidia and bitcoin swing

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    NEW YORK (AP) — An early swoon shook the U.S. stock market on Friday, as Nvidia, bitcoin, gold and other high flyers swung on an increasingly antsy Wall Street, but it quickly calmed.

    After starting the day with a sharp drop of 1.3%, the S&P 500 erased all of it and then meandered up and down before finishing with a slight dip of 0.1%. The Nasdaq composite flipped to a gain of 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average trimmed its loss to 309 points, or 0.7%, after earlier being down nearly 600.

    Options traders Steven Rodriguez, left, and Scott Frenzy work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, Nov. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

    AI stocks were again at the center of the action, a day after dragging Wall Street to one of its worst drops since its springtime sell-off. Nvidia, which has become the poster child of the frenzy around artificial-intelligence technology, began the day with a loss of 3.4%. It then stormed back to a rise of 1.8% and yanked the market in its wake.

    Critics have been warning that the U.S. stock market could be primed for a drop because of how high prices have shot since April, leaving them looking too expensive. They pointed in particular to stocks swept up in the AI mania. Nvidia’s stock has more than doubled in four of the last five years, for example, and the chip company is still up more than 40% for this year so far.

    AP AUDIO: Wall Street erases a big early loss as Nvidia and bitcoin swing

    Nvidia and other Big Tech companies are lifting Wall Street. We hear more from AP business correspondent Seth Sutel.

    Even with sharp swings for the S&P 500 the last couple of weeks, the index that dictates the movements for many 401(k) accounts remains within 2.3% of its record set late last month.

    “Occasional market drops are the price of the ticket for the ride,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.

    Outside of tech, Walmart edged down 0.1% after saying CEO Doug McMillon will retire in January in a surprise move. It had been down as much as 3.6% in the morning. McMillon helped the retailer embrace technology more.

    All told, the S&P 500 fell 3.38 points to 6,734.11. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 309.74 to 47,147.48, and the Nasdaq composite rose 30.23 to 22,900.59.

    One way companies can tamp down criticism about too-high stock prices is to deliver solid growth in profits. That’s raising the stakes for Nvidia’s profit report coming Wednesday, when it will say how much it earned during the summer.

    Options trader Anthony Spina works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, Nov. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

    Options trader Anthony Spina works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, Nov. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

    If it falls short of analysts’ expectations, more drops could be on the way. That would have a big effect on the market because Nvidia has grown to become Wall Street’s largest stock by value. That gives Nvidia’s stock movements a bigger effect on the S&P 500 than any other’s, and it can almost single-handedly steer the index’s direction on any given day.

    Another way for stock prices broadly to look less expensive is if interest rates fall. That’s because bonds paying less in interest can make investors willing to pay higher prices for stocks and other kinds of investments.

    Treasury yields had been falling for most of this year on expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut its main interest rate several times. And the Fed has indeed cut twice already in hopes of shoring up the slowing job market.

    But questions are rising about whether a third cut will actually come after the Fed’s next meeting in December, something that traders had earlier seen as very likely. The downside of lower interest rates is that they can make inflation worse, and inflation has stubbornly remained above the Fed’s 2% target.

    Fed officials have pointed to the U.S. government’s shutdown, which delayed the release of updates on the job market and other signals about the economy. With less information and less certainty about how things are going, some Fed officials have suggested it may be better just to wait in December to get more clarity.

    In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.14% from 4.11% late Thursday.

    Specialist Anthony Matesic works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, Nov. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

    Specialist Anthony Matesic works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, Nov. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

    Bitcoin is one of the investments that can get a boost from lower interest rates. It fell below $95,000, back to where it was in May. It had been near $125,000 only in October.

    The price of gold, meanwhile, sank 2.4%. It shot to records throughout the year as investors looked for something that could protect from high inflation and big debt loads built by the U.S. and other governments worldwide. But interest rates staying higher can hurt gold, which pays its investors nothing in interest or dividends.

    In stock markets abroad, indexes dropped across Europe and Asia. South Korea’s Kospi fell 3.8% for one of the world’s largest losses.

    London’s FTSE 100 sank 1.1% amid speculation the U.K. government may ditch plans to raise income taxes, which would have helped chip away at its debt.

    ___

    AP Writer Teresa Cerojano contributed.

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  • Trump is ramping up a new effort to convince a skeptical public he can fix affordability worries

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump is adjusting his messaging strategy to win over voters who are worried about the cost of living with plans to emphasize new tax breaks and show progress on fighting inflation.

    The messaging is centered around affordability, and the push comes after inflation emerged as a major vulnerability for Trump and Republicans in Tuesday’s elections, in which voters overwhelmingly said the economy was their biggest concern.

    Democrats took advantage of concerns about affordability to run up huge margins in the New Jersey and Virginia governor races, flipping what had been a strength for Trump in the 2024 presidential election into a vulnerability going into next year’s midterm elections.

    White House officials and others familiar with their thinking requested anonymity to speak for this article in order to not get ahead of the president’s actions. They stressed that affordability has always been a priority for Trump, but the president plans to talk about it more, as he did Thursday when he announced that Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk would reduce the price of their anti-obesity drugs.

    “We are the ones that have done a great job on affordability, not the Democrats,” Trump said at an event in the Oval Office to announce the deal. “We just lost an election, they said, based on affordability. It’s a con job by the Democrats.”

    The White House is keeping up a steady drumbeat of posts on social media about prices and deals for Thanksgiving dinner staples at retailers such as Walmart, Lidl, Aldi and Target.

    “I don’t want to hear about the affordability, because right now, we’re much less,” Trump told reporters Thursday, arguing that things are much better for Americans with his party in charge.

    “The only problem is the Republicans don’t talk about it,” he said.

    The outlook for inflation is unclear

    As of now, the inflation outlook has worsened under Trump. Consumer prices in September increased at an annual rate of 3%, up from 2.3% in April, when the president first began to roll out substantial tariff hikes that suddenly burdened the economy with uncertainty. The AP Voter Poll showed the economy was the leading issue in Tuesday’s elections in New Jersey, Virginia, New York City and California.

    Grocery prices continue to climb, and recently, electricity bills have emerged as a new worry. At the same time, the pace of job gains has slowed, plunging 23% from the pace a year ago.

    The White House maintains a list of talking points about the economy, noting that the stock market has hit record highs multiple times and that the president is attracting foreign investment. Trump has emphasized that gasoline prices are coming down, and maintained that gasoline is averaging $2 a gallon, but AAA reported Thursday that the national average was $3.08, about two cents lower than a year ago.

    “Americans are paying less for essentials like gas and eggs, and today the Administration inked yet another drug pricing deal to deliver unprecedented health care savings for everyday Americans,” said White House spokesman Kush Desai.

    Trump gets briefed about the economy by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other officials at least once a week and there are often daily discussions on tariffs, a senior White House official said, noting Trump is expected to do more domestic travel next year to make his case that he’s fixing affordability.

    But critics say it will be hard for Trump to turn around public perceptions on affordability.

    “He’s in real trouble and I think it’s bigger than just cost of living,” said Lindsay Owens, executive director of Groundwork Collaborative, a liberal economic advocacy group.

    Owens noted that Trump has “lost his strength” as voters are increasingly doubtful about Trump’s economic leadership compared to Democrats, adding that the president doesn’t have the time to turn around public perceptions of him as he continues to pursue broad tariffs.

    New hype about income tax cuts ahead of April

    There will be new policies rolled out on affordability, a person familiar with the White House thinking said, declining to comment on what those would be. Trump on Thursday indicated there will be more deals coming on drug prices. Two other White House officials said messaging would change — but not policy.

    A big part of the administration’s response on affordability will be educating people ahead of tax season about the role of Trump’s income tax cuts in any refunds they receive in April, the person familiar with planning said. Those cuts were part of the sprawling bill Republicans muscled through Congress in July.

    This individual stressed that the key challenge is bringing prices down while simultaneously having wages increase, so that people can feel and see any progress.

    There’s also a bet that the economy will be in a healthier place in six months. With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term ending in May, the White House anticipates the start of consistent cuts to the Fed’s benchmark interest rate. They expect inflation rates to cool and declines in the federal budget deficit to boost sentiment in the financial markets.

    But the U.S. economy seldom cooperates with a president’s intentions, a lesson learned most recently by Trump’s predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden, who saw his popularity slump after inflation spiked to a four-decade high in June 2022.

    The Trump administration maintains it’s simply working through an inflation challenge inherited from Biden, but new economic research indicates Trump has created his own inflation challenge through tariffs.

    Since April, Harvard University economist Alberto Cavallo and his colleagues, Northwestern University’s Paola Llamas and Universidad de San Andres’ Franco Vazquez, have been tracking the impact of the import taxes on consumer prices.

    In an October paper, the economists found that the inflation rate would have been drastically lower at 2.2%, had it not been for Trump’s tariffs.

    The administration maintains that tariffs have not contributed to inflation. They plan to make the case that the import taxes are helping the economy and dismiss criticisms of the import taxes as contributing to inflation as Democratic talking points.

    The fate of Trump’s country-by-country tariffs is currently being decided by the Supreme Court, where justices at a Wednesday hearing seemed dubious over the administration’s claims that tariffs were essentially regulations and could be levied by a president without congressional approval. Trump has maintained at times that foreign countries pay the tariffs and not U.S. citizens, a claim he backed away from slightly Thursday.

    “They might be paying something,” he said. “But when you take the overall impact, the Americans are gaining tremendously.”

    _____

    Associated Press writers Will Weissert and Michelle L. Price contributed to this report.

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  • Federal Reserve likely to cut key rate Wednesday and may signal another cut to follow

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut its key interest rate on Wednesday and could signal it expects another cut in December as the central bank seeks to bolster hiring.

    A cut Wednesday would be the second this year and could benefit consumers by bringing down borrowing costs for mortgages and auto loans. Since Fed chair Jerome Powell strongly signaled in late August that rate cuts were likely this year, the average 30-year mortgage rate has fallen to about 6.2% from 6.6%, providing a boost to the otherwise-sluggish housing market.

    Still, the Fed is navigating an unusual period for the U.S. economy and its future moves are harder to anticipate than is typically the case. Hiring has ground nearly to a halt, yet inflation remains elevated, and the economy’s mostly solid growth is heavily dependent on massive investment by leading tech companies in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

    The central bank is assessing these trends without most of the government data it uses to gauge the economy’s health. The release of September’s jobs report has been postponed because of the government shutdown. The White House said last week October’s inflation figure may not even be compiled.

    The shutdown itself may also crimp the economy in the coming months, depending on how long it lasts. Roughly 750,000 federal workers are nearing a month without pay, which could soon start weakening consumer spending, a critical driver of the economy.

    Federal workers laid off by the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency efforts earlier this year may formally show up in jobs data if it is reported next month, which could make the monthly hiring data look even worse.

    Powell has said that the risk of weaker hiring is rising, which makes it as much of a concern as still-elevated inflation. As a result, the central bank needs to move its key rate closer to a level that would neither slow nor stimulate the economy.

    Most Fed officials view the current level of its key rate — 4.1% — as high enough to slow growth and cool inflation, which has been their main goal since price increases spiked to a four-decade high three years ago. The Fed is widely expected to reduce it to about 3.9% Wednesday. WIth job gains at risk, the goal is to move rates to a less-restrictive level.

    Kris Dawsey, head of economic research at D.E. Shaw, an investment bank, said that the lack of data during the shutdown means the Fed will likely stay on the path it sketched out in September, when it forecast cuts this month and in December.

    “Imagine you’re driving in a winter storm and suddenly lose visibility in whiteout conditions,” Dawsey said. “While you slow the car down, you’re going to continue going in the direction you were going versus making an abrupt change once you lose that visibility.”

    In recent remarks, the Fed chair has made clear that the sluggish job market has become a signficant concern.

    “The labor market has actually softened pretty considerably,” Powell said. “The downside risks to employment appear to have risen.”

    Before the government shutdown cut off the flow of data Oct. 1, monthly hiring gains had weakened to an average of just 29,000 a month for the previous three months. The unemployment rate ticked up to a still-low 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July.

    Layoffs also remain low, however, leading Powell and other officials to refer to the “low-hire, low-fire” job market.

    At the same time, last week’s inflation report — released more than a week late because of the shutdown — showed that inflation remain elevated but isn’t accelerating and may not need higher rates to tame it.

    Yet a key question is how long the job market can remain in what Powell has described as a “curious kind of balance.”

    “There have been some worrisome data points in the last few months,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander, an investment bank. “Is that a weakening trend or are we just hitting an air pocket?”

    The uncertainty has prompted some top Fed officials to suggest that they may not necessarily support a cut at its next meeting in December. At its September meeting, the Fed signaled it would cut three times this year, though its policymaking committee is divided. Nine of 19 officials supported two or fewer reductions.

    Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed’s governing board and one of five people being considered by the Trump administration to replace Powell as Fed chair next year, said in a recent speech that while hiring data is weak, other figures suggest the economy is growing at a healthy pace.

    “So, something’s gotta give,” Waller said. “Either economic growth softens to match a soft labor market, or the labor market rebounds to match stronger economic growth.”

    Since it’s unclear how the contradiction will play out, Waller added, “we need to move with care when adjusting the policy rate.”

    Waller said he supported a quarter-point cut this month, “but beyond that point” it will depend on what the economic data says, assuming the shutdown ends.

    Financial markets have put the odds of another cut in December at above 90%, according to CME Fedwatch — and Fed officials have so far said little to defuse that expectation.

    Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS, said that he will look to see if Powell, at a news conference Wednesday, repeats his assertion that the risks of a weaker job market remain high.

    “If I hear that, I think they’re on track to lowering rates again in December,” he said.

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  • Banks and retailers run short on pennies as the US Mint stops making them

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    NEW YORK (AP) — The United States is running out of pennies.

    President Donald Trump’s decision to stop producing the penny earlier this year is starting to have real implications for the nation’s commerce. Merchants in multiple regions of the country have run out of pennies and are unable to produce exact change. Meanwhile, banks are unable to order fresh pennies and are rationing pennies for their customers.

    One convenience store chain, Sheetz, got so desperate for pennies that it briefly ran a promotion offering a free soda to customers who bring in 100 pennies. Another retailer says the lack of pennies will end up costing it millions this year, because of the need to round down to avoid lawsuits.

    “It’s a chunk of change,” said Dylan Jeon, senior director of government relations with the National Retail Federation.

    The penny problem started in late summer and is only getting worse as the country heads into the holiday shopping season.

    To be sure, not one retailer or bank has called for the penny to stick around. Pennies, especially in bulk, are heavy and are more often than not used exclusively to give customers change. But the abrupt decision to get rid of the penny has come with no guidance from the federal government. Many stores have been left pleading for Americans to pay in exact change.

    “We have been advocating abolition of the penny for 30 years. But this is not the way we wanted it to go,” said Jeff Lenard with the National Association of Convenience Stores.

    Trump announced on Feb. 9 that the U.S. would no longer mint pennies, citing the high costs. Both the penny and the nickel have been more expensive to produce than they are worth for several years, despite efforts by the U.S. Mint to reduce costs. The Mint spent 3.7 cents to make a penny in 2024, according to its most recent annual report, and it spends 13.8 cents to make a nickel.

    “Let’s rip the waste out of our great nation’s budget, even if it’s a penny at a time,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

    The Treasury Department said in May that it was placing its last order of copper-zinc planchets — the blank metal disks that are minted into coins. In June, the last pennies were minted and by August, those pennies were distributed to banks and armored vehicle service companies.

    Troy Richards, president at Louisiana-based Guaranty Bank & Trust Co., said he’s had to scramble to have enough pennies on hand for his customers since August.

    “We got an email announcement from the Federal Reserve that penny shipments would be curtailed. Little did we know that those shipments were already over for us,” Richards said.

    Richards said the $1,800 in pennies the bank had were gone in two weeks. His branches are keeping small amounts of pennies for customers who need to cash checks, but that’s it.

    The U.S. Mint issued 3.23 billion pennies in 2024, the last full year of production, more than double that of the second-most minted coin in the country: the quarter. But the problem with pennies is they are issued, given as change, and rarely recirculated back into the economy. Americans store their pennies in jars or use them for decoration. This requires the Mint to produce significant sums of pennies each year.

    The government is expected to save $56 million by not minting pennies, according to the Treasury Department. Despite losing money on the penny, the Mint is profitable for the U.S. government through its production of other circulating coins as well as coin proof and commemorative sets that appeal to numismatic collectors.

    In 2024, the Mint made $182 million in seigniorage, which is its equivalent of profit.

    Besides American’s penny hoarding habit, a logistical issue is also preventing pennies from circulating.

    The distribution of coins is handled by the Federal Reserve system. Several companies, mostly armored carrier companies, operate coin terminals where banks can withdraw and deposit coins. Roughly a third of these 170 coin terminals are now closed to both penny deposits as well as penny withdrawals.

    Bank lobbyists say these terminals being closed to penny deposits is exacerbating the penny shortage, because parts of the country that may have some surplus pennies are unable to get those pennies to parts of country with shortages.

    “As a result of the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s decision to end production of the penny, coin distribution locations accepting penny deposits and fulfilling orders will vary over time as (penny) inventory is depleted” a Federal Reserve spokeswoman said.

    The lack of pennies has also become a legal minefield for stores and retailers. In some states and cities, it is illegal to round up a transaction to the nearest nickel or dime because doing so would run afoul of laws that are supposed to place cash customers and debit and credit card customers on an equal playing field when it comes to item costs.

    So, to avoid lawsuits, retailers are rounding down. While two or three cents may not seem like much, that extra change can add up over tens of thousands of transactions. A spokesman for Kwik Trip, the Midwest convenience store chain, says it has been rounding down every cash transaction to the nearest nickel. That’s expected to cost the company roughly $3 million this year. Some retailers are asking customers to give their change to local or affiliated charities at the cash register, in an effort to avoid pennies as well.

    A bill currently pending in Congress, known as the Common Cents Act, calls for cash transactions to be rounded to the nearest nickel, up or down. While the proposal is palatable to businesses, rounding up could be costly for consumers.

    The Treasury Department did not respond to a request for comment on whether they had any guidance for retailers or banks regarding the penny shortage, or the issues regarding penny circulation.

    The United States is not the first country to transition away from small denomination coins or discontinue out-of-date coins. But in all of these cases, governments wound down the use of their out-of-date coins over a period of, often, years.

    For example, Canada announced it would eliminate its one-cent coin in 2012, transitioning away from one-cent cash transactions starting in 2013 and is still redeeming and recycling one-cent coins a decade later. The “decimalization” process of converting British coins from farthings and shillings to a 100-pence-to-a-pound system took much of the 1960s and early 1970s.

    The U.S. removed the penny from commerce abruptly, without any action by Congress or any regulatory guidance for banks, retailers or states. The retail and banking industries, rarely allies in Washington on policy matters related to point-of-sale, are demanding that Washington issue guidance or pass a law fixing the issues that are arising due to the shortage.

    “We don’t want the penny back. We just want some sort of clarity from the federal government on what to do, as this issue is only going to get worse,” the NACS’ Lenard said.

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  • Federal Reserve cuts key rate yet Powell says future reductions are not locked in

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate Wednesday for a second time this year as it seeks to shore up economic growth and hiring, even as inflation stays elevated.

    But Fed Chair Jerome Powell also cautioned that further rate cuts weren’t guaranteed, citing the government shutdown’s interruption of economic reports and sharp divisions among 19 Fed officials who participate in the central bank’s interest-rate deliberations.

    Speaking to reporters after the Fed announced its rate decision, Powell said there were “strongly differing views about how to proceed in December” at its next meeting and a further reduction in the benchmark rate is not “a foregone conclusion — far from it.”

    The rate cut — a quarter of a point — brings the Fed’s key rate down to about 3.9%, from about 4.1%. The central bank had cranked its rate to roughly 5.3% in 2023 and 2024 to combat the biggest inflation spike in four decades before implementing three cuts last year. Lower rates could, over time, reduce borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards, as well as for business loans.

    The move comes amid a fraught time for the central bank, with hiring sluggish and yet inflation stuck above the Fed’s 2% target. Compounding its challenges, the central bank is navigating without the economic signposts it typically relies on from the government, including monthly reports on jobs, inflation, and consumer spending, which have been suspended because of the government shutdown.

    Financial markets largely expected another rate reduction in December, and stock prices dropped after Powell’s comments, with the S&P 500 nearly unchanged and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing slightly lower.

    “Powell poured cold water on the idea that the Fed was on autopilot for a December cut,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities. “Instead, they’ll have to wait for economic data to confirm that a rate cut is actually needed.”

    Powell was asked about the impact of the government shutdown, which began on Oct. 1 and has interrupted the distribution of economic data. Powell said the Fed does have access to some data that give it “a picture of what’s going on.” He added that, “If there were a significant or material change in the economy, one way or another, I think we’d pick that up through this.”

    But the Fed chair did acknowledge that the limited data could cause officials to proceed more cautiously heading into its next meeting in mid-December.

    “There’s a possibility that it would make sense to be more cautious about moving (on rates). I’m not committing to that, I’m just saying it’s certainly a possibility that you would say ‘we really can’t see, so let’s slow down.’”

    The Fed typically raises its short term rate to combat inflation, while it cuts rates to encourage borrowing and spending and shore up hiring. Right now it sees risks of both slowing hiring and rising inflation, so it is reducing borrowing costs to support the job market, while still keeping rates high enough to avoid stimulating the economy so much that it worsens inflation.

    Yet Powell suggested the Fed increasingly sees inflation as less of a threat. He noted that excluding the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, inflation is “not so far from our 2% goal.” Inflation has slowed in apartment rents and for many services, such as car insurance. A report released last week showed that inflation remains elevated but isn’t accelerating.

    The government recalled employees to produce the report, despite the shutdown, because it was used to calculate the cost of living adjustment for Social Security.

    At the same time, the economy could be rebounding from a sluggish first half, which could improve job growth in the coming months, Powell said. That would make rate cuts less necessary.

    “For some part of the committee, it’s time to maybe take a step back and see if whether there really are downside risks to the labor market,” Powell said. “Or see whether in fact that the stronger growth that we’re seeing is real.”

    Two of the 12 officials who vote on the Fed’s rate decisions dissented Wednesday, but in different directions. Jeffrey Schmid, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, voted against the move because he preferred no change to the Fed’s rate. Schmid has previously expressed concern that inflation remains too high.

    Fed governor Stephen Miran dissented for the second straight meeting in favor of a half-point cut. Miran was appointed by President Donald Trump just before the central bank’s last meeting in September.

    Trump has repeatedly attacked Powell for not reducing borrowing costs more quickly. In South Korea early Wednesday he repeated his criticisms of the Fed chair.

    “He’s out of there in another couple of months,” Trump said. Powell’s term ends in May. On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the administration is considering five people to replace Powell, and will decide by the end of this year.

    The Fed also said Wednesday that it would stop reducing the size of its massive securities holdings, which it accumulated during the pandemic and after the 2008-2009 Great Recession. The change, to take effect Dec. 1, could over time slightly reduce longer-term interest rates on things like mortgages but won’t have much overall impact on consumer borrowing costs.

    Without government data, the economy is harder to track, Powell said. September’s jobs report, scheduled to be released three weeks ago, is still postponed. This month’s hiring figures, to be released Nov. 7, will likely be delayed and may be less comprehensive when finally released. And the White House said last week that October’s inflation report may never be issued at all.

    Before the government shutdown cut off the flow of data, monthly hiring gains had weakened to an average of just 29,000 a month for the previous three months, according to the Labor Department’s data. The unemployment rate ticked up to a still-low 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July.

    More recently, several large corporations have announced sweeping layoffs, including UPS, Amazon, and Target, which threatens to boost the unemployment rate if it continues. Powell said the Fed is watching the layoff announcements “very carefully.”

    ___

    Associated Press Writer Alex Veiga in Los Angeles contributed to this report.

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  • The stock market is breaking records. Time for a gut check

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    NEW YORK (AP) — Almost everything in your 401(k) should be coming up a winner now. That makes it time for a gut check.

    Not only is the U.S. stock market setting records, so are foreign stocks. Bond funds, which are supposed to be the boring and safe part of any portfolio, are also doing well this year, along with gold and cryptocurrencies.

    But in the midst of all the fun, it can pay to remember how you felt during April. That’s when financial markets were tumbling because of worldwide tariffs that President Donald Trump announced on his “Liberation Day.”

    Did all that fear push you to sell your stocks, lock in the losses and miss out on the stunning rebound that came afterward? Or did you hold tight, as many financial advisers suggested? Either way, it’s valuable information because another downturn could strike at any time.

    To be sure, many professionals along Wall Street are forecasting that the U.S. stock market will keep rising. But the threat of a sharp drop remains, as it always does. That leaves investors with the luxury now, while prices are high, to reassess. Don’t get lulled into leaving your 401(k) on autopilot, unless you’re intentionally doing so, and make sure your portfolio isn’t stuffed with too much risk.

    Here are some things to keep in mind:

    The stock market is doing well?

    It’s been another fabulous year for stocks. The S&P 500 has soared more than 35% from its low point in April, shortly after “Liberation Day.”

    The market has had a few hiccups recently, as worries have popped up about everything from potentially bad loans at some banks to renewed talk about much higher tariffs on China. But stocks have come back from each stumble, only to push higher.

    “The market continues to (hit) record highs on the back of strong earnings and easing U.S.–China trade tensions,” said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, who calls the current state of “steady growth without irrational exuberance” a ”Goldilocks environment.”

    If the market’s great, why should I worry?

    You don’t need to worry at the moment, but remember that the stock market will fall eventually. It always does.

    The S&P 500 index, which sits at the heart of many 401(k) accounts, has forced investors to swallow a 10% drop every couple of years or so, on average. That’s what Wall Street calls a “correction,” and professional investors see them as ways to clear out excessive optimism that may have built up and pushed prices too high. More serious drops of at least 20%, which Wall Street calls “bear markets,” are less common but can last for years.

    Back in April, the S&P 500 index plunged nearly 20% from its record at the time. But the market came back, propelled by the big tech companies that have led the way the last few years.

    “Fundamentally superior stocks recover quickly and bounce like fresh tennis balls, while fundamentally inferior stocks bounce like rocks.” said Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer of asset manager Navellier & Associates, who also brushed off worries that the stock market is in a bubble.

    What could trip up the market?

    The stock market has charged to records because investors are expecting several important things to happen. If any fail to pan out, it would undercut the market.

    Chief among those expectations is that big U.S. companies will continue to deliver big growth in profits. That’s one of the few ways they can justify the jumps for their stock prices and quiet criticism that they’ve become too expensive.

    Critics point in particular to the frenzy going on in artificial-intelligence technology. There, they hear echoes of the dot-com bonanza that ultimately imploded in 2000 and sent stocks on a yearslong descent. One popular measure of valuing stocks, which looks at corporate profits over the preceding 10 years, showed the S&P 500 recently was near its most expensive level since the 2000 dot-com bubble.

    Consider Nvidia, the chip company that’s become the poster child of the AI trade. If it fails to meet analysts’ high expectations for growth, its stock will look more expensive than it already does. It’s trading at 54 times its earnings per share over the last 12 months, much higher than the overall S&P 500’s price-earnings ratio of nearly 30.

    What’s the next event to be mindful of?

    Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve could be a key moment for the market.

    Besides companies delivering bigger profits or stock prices falling, another way for the stock market to look less expensive is if interest rates ease.

    The widespread expectation is that the Fed will cut its main interest rate to support the slowing job market and deliver more reductions through next year. But the Fed has also warned it may hold off on cuts if inflation accelerates beyond its still-high level. That’s because lower interest rates can make inflation worse, and Wednesday’s focus will be on whether the Fed gives any hints about the likelihood of more cuts in coming months.

    Several of Wall Street’s most influential stocks will also be reporting their latest earnings results this week, including Microsoft and Apple. And Trump will be meeting with China’s leader, Xi Jinping on Thursday. The market has already run up on hopes that the two will ease rising trade tensions at some point.

    If there’s a bubble, I should sell everything, right?

    A famous saying on Wall Street is that being too early is the same as being wrong.

    Consider prescient investors who knew that stocks were too expensive when former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan famously talked about the possibility of “irrational exuberance” in financial markets. That was in late 1996.

    If they sold then, they would have missed out as the bubble inflated further and the S&P 500 more than doubled through late March 2000 before it popped.

    Instead, the better way to think of it may be: Make sure your investments are set up the right way, so you can stomach the market whether it goes up or down.

    How much of my 401(k) should be in stocks?

    It depends on your age and how much risk you’re willing to take.

    If you did sell stocks this past April, you may have had too much of your portfolio in stocks for your risk tolerance. Or you may need to steel yourself more during the next drop.

    Remember that anyone decades away from retirement has the luxury of waiting out any drops in the market. Bear markets are actually great in that case, because they put stocks on sale for anyone continuing to make regular contributions to their 401(k) account.

    Workers closer to retirement still need stocks, though in smaller proportions, because they have historically provided the highest returns over the long term, and a retirement can last decades.

    “They aren’t the most sexy, but companies with dependable dividends are a good bet, as are simple index funds designed to track the S&P 500 or a subset aimed at value or growth,” said John Kiernan, managing editor of personal finance site WalletHub.

    “Young people need to grow their money over time, and they will have decades to make up for any losses,” Kiernan said. “Older people need to protect the money they have now, which might mean favoring bonds and high-yield savings accounts over risky investments.”

    It’s easy to see how much stock retirement savers are recommended to hold at various ages. Mutual-fund companies have target-date retirement funds, which are built as autopilot products that will automatically move investors from lots of stocks when they’re young to fewer stocks when they’re closer to retirement.

    The average target-date fund for workers just starting their careers had 92% of its portfolio invested in stocks at the end of last year, according to Morningstar. Target-date funds designed for people entering retirement have a bit under 50% invested in stocks, meanwhile.

    I hate all this uncertainty

    Unfortunately, it’s the price you have to pay if you want the strong returns that the U.S. stock market has historically provided over the long term.

    This is what the stock market does. It goes up and down, sometimes by shocking amounts, but it usually helps patient savers build their nest eggs over decades.

    Ben Fulton, CEO of WEBs investments, recommends monitoring volatility by paying attention to the VIX, a volatility index, sometimes called the “fear index, which measures market expectations of future risk. The VIX is currently around 16, which Fulton said signals ”calm by historical standards.”

    “When the VIX begins to hold consistently above 20, it often signals a time to gradually reduce market exposure,” he said. That happened during the tech bubble and more recently during the pandemic in 2020 and when inflation spiked in 2022.

    “Until then, maintaining positions is critical, as markets that rise steadily can continue longer than logic might suggest, and stepping aside too early can mean missing valuable portfolio appreciation,” Fulton said.

    “Markets rarely behave as we want, instead reflecting the collective sentiment of all investors.”

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  • Slowdown in US hiring suggests economy still needs rate cuts, Fed’s Powell says

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — A sharp slowdown in hiring poses a growing risk to the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday, a sign that the Fed will likely cut its key interest rate twice more this year.

    Powell said in a speech in Philadelphia that despite the federal government shutdown cutting off official economic data, “the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting,” when the Fed reduced its key rate for the first time this year.

    Fed officials at that meeting also forecast that the central bank would reduce its rate twice more this year and once in 2026. Lower rates from the Fed could reduce borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and business loans. Powell spoke before a meeting of the National Association of Business Economics.

    Powell reiterated a message he first delivered after the September meeting, when he signaled that the Fed is slightly more worried about the job market than its other congressional mandate, which is to keep prices stable. Tariffs have lifted the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation to 2.9%, he said, but outside the duties there aren’t “broader inflationary pressures” that will keep prices high.

    “Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our assessment of the balance of risks,” he said.

    Economists said Powell’s remarks solidified expectations for further rate cuts, starting at its next meeting Oct. 28-29.

    “While there was little doubt the (Fed) was angled to cut rates at its next meeting, today’s remarks were strong confirmation of that expectation,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in a note to clients.

    Powell also said that the central bank may soon stop shrinking its roughly $6.6 trillion balance sheet. The Fed has been allowing roughly $40 billion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to mature each month without replacing them.

    “We may approach that point in coming months,” Powell said.

    The shift could slightly lower borrowing costs over time. Economists at BMO Capital Markets estimated that the yields on Treasury securities ticked down slightly after Powell’s remarks.

    Separately, Powell spent most of his speech defending the Fed’s practice of buying longer-term Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in 2020 and 2021, which were intended to lower longer-term interest rates and support the economy during the pandemic.

    Yet those purchases have come under a torrent of criticism from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, as well as some of the candidates floated by the Trump administration to replace Powell when his term as Chair ends next May.

    Bessent said in an extended critique published earlier this year that the huge purchases of bonds during the pandemic worsened inequality by boosting the stock market, without providing noticeable benefits to the economy.

    Other critics have long argued that the Fed kept implementing the purchases for too long, keeping interest rates low even as inflation began to spike in late 2021. The Fed beginning in 2021 stopped the purchases and then sharply boosted borrowing costs to combat inflation.

    “With the clarity of hindsight, we could have—and perhaps should have—stopped asset purchases sooner,” Powell said. “Our real-time decisions were intended to serve as insurance against downside risk.”

    Yet Powell said that moving earlier would not have prevented the COVID-era inflation spike: “Stopping sooner could have made some difference, but not likely enough to fundamentally alter the trajectory of the economy.”

    Powell also said the purchases were intended to avoid a breakdown in the market for Treasury securities, which could have sent interest rates much higher.

    The Fed chair also addressed a move by a bipartisan group of senators to stop the central bank from paying interest on the cash reserves banks park at the Fed. A measure to prevent the Fed from doing so was defeated in the Senate last week by the lopsided vote of 83-14.

    Still, it garnered support from both parties, including Republican senators Rand Paul from Kentucky and Ted Cruz from Texas, as well as Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

    Powell said that without the ability to pay interest on reserves, the Fed “would lose control over rates” and wouldn’t be able to carry out its mission. The Fed lifts the short-term interest rate it controls when it wants to cool borrowing and spending and slow inflation, while it cuts the rate to encourage borrowing, growth, and hiring.

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  • Trump’s Appointees Could Rule the Fed for Decades

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    Note: Powell was appointed as governor by Obama and nominated as chair by Trump.

    When President Trump took office in 2025, just two of the seven seats on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors were held by his appointees. He had also elevated Jerome H. Powell to the chair position during his first term.

    Note: Powell was appointed as governor by Obama and nominated as chair by Trump.

    A seat opened up earlier this month when a Biden appointee stepped down. And on Monday, Mr. Trump announced that he was planning to fire another Biden-appointed member of the board. If he succeeds, a majority of the Federal Reserve Board will have been appointed by Mr. Trump.

    Notes: Kugler announced her resignation Aug. 1, and it took effect Aug. 8.

    Mr. Trump has made no secret of his desire to reshape the top ranks of the Fed, repeatedly lashing out at Mr. Powell and his colleagues for keeping interest rates too high.

    Mr. Trump’s first opportunity to remake the Fed roster came sooner than expected with the resignation of Adriana D. Kugler. He is working to create another with the firing of Lisa D. Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud. Fed governors can be fired only “for cause,” generally understood to mean gross misconduct.

    Ms. Cook, who has not been charged with wrongdoing or convicted of a crime, said she would not leave, and her lawyer said she would sue to challenge the dismissal. In a statement, a spokesman for the Fed emphasized the central bank’s independence but said it would “abide by any court decision.”

    If Mr. Trump succeeds in removing Ms. Cook, he will be able to appoint another governor to serve out her term, which ends in January 2038.

    Mr. Trump has already nominated Stephen Miran, his top economic adviser, to serve out Ms. Kugler’s term.

    With Cook’s dismissal, Trump-appointed board members could soon be a majority at the Fed

    Presidents appoint Fed governors to staggered 14-year terms, meaning one term expires every two years. The structure is meant to safeguard the Fed’s independence, preventing a president from packing the board and ensuring the Fed governors can consider a longer-term horizon than Congress or the president.

    “The idea is that you can do something for the long-term health of the country that could be a short-term political loss,” said Aaron Klein, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

    In reality, most do not serve out the full 14 years, and previous presidents have had the opportunity to appoint multiple board members.

    But in the past, board nominations were relatively nonpartisan, Mr. Klein said.

    “Governors were routinely nominated by one party and renominated by the other,” he said, pointing to Mr. Powell as an example. Mr. Powell, a registered Republican, was appointed to the board by President Barack Obama, nominated as chair by Mr. Trump and renominated by President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

    But this time, Mr. Klein said, Mr. Trump is seeking to install loyalists who favor his economic policies. “What is unique is that these are governors who are likely to do what Trump says, and if not, he’ll fire them.” Mr. Klein added that Mr. Trump’s actions, if allowed to proceed, would “eviscerate” the principle of central bank independence.

    Mr. Trump’s nominees would need to be confirmed by the Senate, which is back in session Sept. 2 — in time for the Fed’s next rate-setting meeting Sept. 16-17.

    During last month’s meeting, Christopher J. Waller and Michelle W. Bowman, both Trump appointees, voted against the central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, preferring instead to cut rates.

    In a twist of timing, Mr. Powell just last week gave his strongest indication yet that the central bank was ready to resume rate cuts as soon as September.

    Another key opportunity to reshape the board will arise in May, when Mr. Powell’s term as chair is set to expire. He can then stay on as governor until January 2028. That would be atypical; most of the time, Fed chairs step down to avoid undercutting the authority of the new chair. Mr. Powell has declined to share his plans.

    The power of the Federal Reserve Board goes beyond voting on rates. Members also approve and reappoint the Fed’s regional presidents, who are responsible for financial regulation in their region, including funding for bailouts. In February, all 12 presidents’ terms will expire, and they will need to be reappointed by the board.

    What is typically a pro forma matter could provide Mr. Trump with another opportunity to overhaul the Fed system, Mr. Klein said.

    “A Trump-loyal Board of Governors could get rid of them all,” he said.

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  • Walmart helps pull Wall Street to its 5th straight loss

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    NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street fell to a fifth straight loss on Thursday, hurt by a drop for Walmart and dampened hopes for coming cuts to interest rates.

    The S&P 500 slipped 0.4%. All its losses have been relatively modest, but it has not risen since setting an all-time high last Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 152 points, or 0.3%, and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.3%.

    Walmart was one of the market’s heaviest weights and dropped 4.5% after reporting a profit for the spring that came up short of analysts’ expectations, while Nvidia and other Big Tech stocks held a bit steadier following two days of sharp swings.

    The moves were stronger in the bond market, where Treasury yields rose after a report forced Wall Street to scale back hopes that the Federal Reserve may soon deliver relief by cutting interest rates.

    AP AUDIO: Wall Street edges lower in its final moves ahead of a speech by the Federal Reserve’s head

    U.S. stocks are falling after a weaker-than-expected profit report from a major retailer. The AP’s Seth Sutel reports.

    The report suggested growth in U.S. business activity is accelerating and hit its fastest rate so far this year. That’s good news for the economy, but the preliminary data from S&P Global also said tariffs helped push up average selling prices at the fastest rate in three years. That’s a discouraging sign for inflation.

    Taken all together, such data has historically aligned more with the Federal Reserve considering a hike in interest rates, rather than a cut, according to Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

    No one expects a rate hike to happen, but the overwhelming expectation on Wall Street has been for coming cuts. Traders are betting on a nearly three-in-four chance that the Fed will lower its main interest rate at its next meeting in September, according to data from CME Group. The hope on Wall Street has been that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may give hints on Friday that easier rates may be coming.

    He will be speaking in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at an annual conference of central bankers that’s been home to big policy announcements in the past.

    A cut in interest rates would be the first of the year, and it would give investment prices and the economy a boost by potentially making it cheaper to borrow to buy cars or equipment. But it could also risk worsening inflation.

    The Fed has been hesitant to cut interest rates this year out of fear that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could push inflation higher, but a surprisingly weak report on job growth earlier this month suddenly made the job market a bigger worry. Trump, meanwhile, has angrily pushed for cuts to interest rates, often insulting Powell while doing so.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which helps set rates for mortgages, rose to 4.32% from 4.29%. The two-year Treasury, which moves more on expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do with short-term interest rates, climbed to 3.78% from 3.74%.

    On Wall Street, Walmart dropped even though it reported encouraging growth in revenue during the latest quarter and raised its forecast for profit over its full fiscal year.

    Analysts said the market’s expectations were high coming into the report. The Bentonville, Arkansas, company’s stock came into the day with a gain of 13.5% for the year so far, more than the rest of the market.

    Big Tech stocks are under even more pressure to deliver bigger profits amid criticism that their stock prices ran too high, too fast and have become too expensive because of the frenzy around artificial-intelligence technology.

    Several AI superstar stocks have swung sharply this week, taking some shine off their skyscraping surges for the year, because of such criticism. But they held a bit steadier on Thursday.

    Palantir Technologies, which at one point on Wednesday was on track to fall more than 9% for a second straight day before paring its loss, rose 0.1%. Nvidia, the chip company that’s become the poster child of the AI boom, edged down 0.2%.

    Coty tumbled 21.6% after the beauty products company reported a loss for the latest quarter, when analysts expected a slight profit. The company, whose brands include CoverGirl and Joop!, said uncertainty about tariffs and the economy are making retailers cautious in their orders.

    On the winning side of Wall Street was Nordson, which makes products and systems used for precision dispensing and other things. It delivered profit and revenue for the latest quarter that topped analysts’ expectations, and its stock rose 3%.

    All told, the S&P 500 slipped 25.61 points to 6,370.17. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 152.81 to 44,785.50, and the Nasdaq composite sank 72.55 to 21,100.31.

    In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed across much of Europe and Asia.

    Germany, Europe’s largest economy, saw its DAX return 0.1% after U.S. and European Union officials offered a framework for their trade deal.

    Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.6% after a survey showed Japan’s factory activity contracted again in August.

    ___

    AP Writers Teresa Cerojano and Matt Ott contributed.

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  • Wall Street soars on hopes for lower interest rates as the Dow surges 846 points to a record

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    NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street rallied to its best day in months on Friday after the head of the Federal Reserve hinted that cuts to interest rates may be on the way, along with the kick they can give the economy and investment prices.

    The S&P 500 leaped 1.5% for its first gain in six days and finished just shy of its all-time high set last week.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 846 points, or 1.9%, to its own record after topping its prior high from December. The Nasdaq composite jumped 1.9%.

    “Ka-Powell” is how Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, described the reaction to Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “The Fed isn’t going to be the party-pooper.”

    The hope among investors had been that Powell would hint that the Fed’s first cut to interest rates of the year may be imminent. Wall Street loves lower rates because they can goose the economy, even if they risk worsening inflation at the same time.

    President Donald Trump has angrily been calling for lower rates, often insulting Powell while doing so. And a surprisingly weak report on job growth this month pushed many on Wall Street to assume cuts may come as soon as the Fed’s next meeting in September.

    Powell encouraged them on Friday after saying he’s seen risks rise for the job market. The Fed’s two jobs are to keep the job market healthy and to keep a lid on inflation, and it often has to prioritize one over the other because it has just one tool to fix either.

    But Powell also would not commit to any kind of timing. He said the job market looks OK at the moment, even if “it is a curious kind of balance” where fewer new workers are chasing after fewer new jobs. Inflation, meanwhile, still has the potential to push higher because of Trump’s tariffs.

    In sum, Powell said that “the stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance.”

    Treasury yields tumbled in the bond market as bets built that the Fed would cut its main interest rate in September. Traders see an 83% chance of that, up from 75% a day earlier, according to data from CME Group.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.25% from 4.33% late Thursday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed action, sank to 3.69% from 3.79% in a notable move for the bond market.

    On Wall Street, stocks of smaller companies led the way. They can benefit more from lower interest rates because of their need to borrow money to grow. The smaller stocks in the Russell 2000 index surged 3.9% for its best day since April and more than doubled the S&P 500’s rally.

    Homebuilders jumped on hopes that easier interest rates could encourage more people to buy homes. Lennar, PulteGroup and D.R. Horton all rose more than 5%.

    Travel companies, meanwhile, climbed amid hopes that easier interest rates could help U.S. households spend more. Norwegian Cruise Line rallied 7.2%, Delta Air Lines flew 6.7% higher and Caesars Entertainment rose 7%.

    Shares of Nio, a Chinese electric-vehicle maker, that trade in the United States leaped 14.4% after it began pre-sales of its flagship premium SUV model, the ES8.

    Intel climbed 5.5% after Trump said the chip company has agreed to give the U.S. government a 10% stake in its business.

    Nvidia rose 1.7% to trim its loss for the week. The company, whose chips are powering much of the world’s move in to artificial-intelligence technology, had seen its stock struggle recently amid criticism that it and other AI superstars shot too high, too fast and became too expensive.

    Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said Friday that the company is discussing a potential new computer chip designed for China with the Trump administration. The chips are graphics processing units, or GPUs, a type of device used to build and update a range of AI systems. But they are less powerful than Nvidia’s top semiconductors today, which cannot be sold to China due to U.S. national security restrictions.

    All told, the S&P 500 jumped 96.74 points to 6,466.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average leaped 846.24 to 45,631.74, and the Nasdaq composite rallied 396.22 to 21,496.53.

    In stock markets abroad, Germany’s DAX returned 0.3% after government data showed that its economy shrank by 0.3% in the second quarter compared with the previous three-month period.

    Indexes rose across much of Asia, with stocks climbing 1.4% in Shanghai and 0.9% in South Korea.

    ___

    AP Writers Teresa Cerojano and Matt Ott contributed.

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  • Powell signals Fed may cut rates soon even as inflation risks remain

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    JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. (AP) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday opened the door ever so slightly to lowering a key interest rate in the coming months but gave no hint on the timing of a move and suggested the central bank will proceed cautiously as it continues to evaluate the impact of tariffs and other policies on the economy.

    In a high-profile speech closely watched at the White House and on Wall Street, Powell said that there are risks of both rising unemployment and stubbornly higher inflation. Yet he suggested that with hiring sluggish, the job market could weaken further.

    “The shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” he said, a reference to his concerns about weaker job gains and a more direct sign that the Fed is considering a rate cut than he has made in previous comments.

    Still, Powell’s remarks suggest the Fed will proceed carefully in the coming months and will make its rate decisions based on how inflation and unemployment evolve. The Fed has three more meetings this year, including next month, in late October, and in December, and it’s not clear whether the Fed will cut at all those meetings.

    AP AUDIO: Powell signals Fed may cut rates soon even as inflation risks remain

    AP correspondent Ed Donahue reports on prospects of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

    “The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance,” Powell said. That suggests the Fed will continue to evaluate jobs and inflation data as it decides whether to cut rates.

    The stock market jumped in response to Powell’s remarks, with the broad S&P 500 index rising 1.5% in midday trading.

    “We see Powell’s remarks as consistent with our expectation of” a quarter-point cut to the Fed’s short-term rate at its Sept. 16-17 meeting, economists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note to clients. The Fed’s rate currently stands at 4.3%.

    Powell spoke with the Fed under unprecedented public scrutiny from the White House, as President Donald Trump has repeatedly insulted Powell and has urged him to cut rates, arguing there is “no inflation” and saying that a cut would lower the government’s interest payments on its $37 trillion in debt.

    Trump also says a cut would boost the moribund housing market. A rate cut by the Fed often leads to lower borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and business borrowing, but it doesn’t always.

    While Powell spoke, Trump elevated his attacks, telling reporters in Washington, D.C. that he would fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook if she did not step down over allegations from an administration official that she committed mortgage fraud.

    If Cook is removed, that would give Trump an opportunity to put a loyalist on the Fed’s governing board. The Fed has long been considered independent from day-to-day politics. The president can’t fire a Fed governor over disagreements on interest rate policy, but he can do so “for cause,” which is generally seen as malfeasance or neglect of duty.

    Later Friday, Trump told reporters, referring to Powell, “We call him too late for a reason. He should have cut them a year ago. He’s too late.”

    Powell spoke at the Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, a conference with about 100 academics, economists, and central bank officials from around the world. He was given a standing ovation before he spoke.

    Cook, who is also attending the conference, declined to comment on the president’s remarks.

    In his remarks, the Fed chair underscored that tariffs are lifting inflation and could push it higher in the coming months.

    “The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible. We expect those effects to accumulate over coming months, with high uncertainty about timing and amounts,” Powell said.

    Inflation has crept higher in recent months though it is down from a peak of 9.1% three years ago. Tariffs have not spurred inflation as much as some economists worried, but they are starting to lift the prices of heavily imported goods such as furniture, toys, and shoes.

    Consumer prices rose 2.7% in July from a year ago, above the Fed’s target of 2%. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 3.1%.

    Powell added that higher prices from tariffs could cause a one-time shift to prices, rather than an ongoing bout of inflation. Other Fed officials have said that is the most likely outcome and as a result the central bank can cut rates to boost the job market.

    The Fed chair said it is largely up to the central bank to ensure that tariffs don’t lead to sustained inflation.

    “Come what may, we will not allow a one-time increase in the price level to become an ongoing inflation problem,” he said, suggesting deep rate cuts, as Trump has demanded, are unlikely.

    Regarding the job market, Powell noted that even as hiring has slowed sharply this year, the unemployment rate remains low. He added that with immigration falling sharply, fewer jobs are needed to keep unemployment in check.

    Yet with hiring sluggish, the risks of a sharper downturn, with rising layoffs, has risen, Powell said.

    Powell also suggested the Fed would continue to set its interest-rate policy free from political pressure.

    Fed officials “will make these decisions, based solely on their assessment of the data and its implications for the economic outlook and the balance of risks. We will never deviate from that approach.”

    Powell dedicated the second half of his speech to announcing changes to the Fed’s policy framework that was issued in August 2020. The framework, which has been blamed for delaying the Fed’s response to the pandemic inflation spike, provides guidelines on how the Fed would respond to changes in inflation and employment.

    In 2020, after a decade of low inflation and low interest rates following the financial crisis and Great Recession in 2008-2009, the Fed changed its framework to allow inflation to top its 2% target temporarily, so that inflation would average 2% over time.

    And after unemployment fell to a half-century low in 2018, without pushing up inflation, the 2020 framework said that the Fed would focus only on “shortfalls” in employment, rather than “deviations.” That meant it would cut rates if unemployment rose, but wouldn’t necessarily raise them if it fell.

    The Fed reviewed its framework this year and concluded that it was tied too closely to the pre-pandemic economy, which has since shifted. Inflation spiked to a four-decade high in 2022 and the Fed rapidly boosted interest rates afterward.

    “A key objective has been to make sure that our framework is suitable across a broad range of economic conditions,” Powell said.

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  • CEO pay rose nearly 10% in 2024 as stock prices and profits soared

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    NEW YORK (AP) — The typical compensation package for chief executives who run companies in the S&P 500 jumped nearly 10% in 2024 as the stock market enjoyed another banner year and corporate profits rose sharply.

    Many companies have heeded calls from shareholders to tie CEO compensation more closely to performance. As a result, a large proportion of pay packages consist of stock awards, which the CEO often can’t cash in for years, if at all, unless the company meets certain targets, typically a higher stock price or market value or improved operating profits.

    The Associated Press’ CEO compensation survey, which uses data analyzed for The AP by Equilar, included pay data for 344 executives at S&P 500 companies who have served at least two full consecutive fiscal years at their companies, which filed proxy statements between Jan. 1 and April 30.

    Here are the key takeaways from the survey:

    A good year at the top

    The median pay package for CEOs rose to $17.1 million, up 9.7%. Meanwhile, the median employee at companies in the survey earned $85,419, reflecting a 1.7% increase year over year.

    CEOs had to navigate sticky inflation and relatively high interest rates last year, as well as declining consumer confidence. But the economy also provided some tail winds: Consumers kept spending despite their misgivings about the economy; inflation did subside somewhat; the Fed lowered interest rates; and the job market stayed strong.

    The stock market’s main benchmark, the S&P 500, rose more than 23% last year. Profits for companies in the index rose more than 9%.

    “2024 was expected to be a strong year, so the (nearly) 10% increases are commensurate with the timing of the pay decisions,” said Dan Laddin, a partner at Compensation Advisory Partners.

    Sarah Anderson, who directs the Global Economy Project at the progressive Institute for Policy Studies, said there have been some recent “long-overdue” increases in worker pay, especially for those at the bottom of the wage scale. But she said too many workers in the world’s richest countries still struggle to pay their bills.

    The top earners

    Rick Smith, the founder and CEO of Axon Enterprises, topped the survey with a pay package valued at $164.5 million. Axon, which makes Taser stun guns and body cameras, saw revenue grow more than 30% for three straight years and posted record annual net income of $377 million in 2024. Axon’s shares more than doubled last year after rising more than 50% in 2023.

    General Electric Co. CEO Lawrence Culp Jr. signs a $52 billion deal by Emirates to purchase Boeing aircraft with GE engines, at the Dubai Air Show, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Monday, Nov. 13, 2023. (AP Photo/Lujain Jo)

    Almost all of Smith’s pay package consists of stock awards, which he can only receive if the company meets targets tied to its stock price and operations for the period from 2024 to 2030. Companies are required to assign a value to the stock awards when they are granted.

    Other top earners in the survey include Lawrence Culp, CEO of what is now GE Aerospace ($87.4 million), Tim Cook at Apple ($74.6 million), David Gitlin at Carrier Global ($65.6 million) and Ted Sarandos at Netflix ($61.9 million). The bulk of those pay packages consisted of stock or options awards.

    The median stock award rose almost 15% last year compared to a 4% increase in base salaries, according to Equilar.

    Tim Cook attends the WSJ. Magazine Innovators Awards at the Museum of Modern Art on Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024, in New York. (Photo by Evan Agostini/Invision/AP, File)

    Tim Cook attends the WSJ. Magazine Innovators Awards at the Museum of Modern Art on Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024, in New York. (Photo by Evan Agostini/Invision/AP, File)

    “For CEOs, target long-term incentives consistently increase more each year than salaries or bonuses,” said Melissa Burek, also a partner at Compensation Advisory Partners. “Given the significant role that long-term incentives play in executive pay, this trend makes sense.”

    Jackie Cook at Morningstar Sustainalytics said the benefit of tying CEO pay to performance is “that share-based pay appears to provide a clear market signal that most shareholders care about.” But she notes that the greater use of share-based pay has led to a “phenomenal rise” in CEO compensation “tracking recent years’ market performance,” which has “widened the pay gap within workplaces.”

    Some well-known billionaire CEOs are low in the AP survey. Warren Buffett’s compensation was valued at $405,000, about five times what a worker at Berkshire Hathaway makes. According to Tesla’s proxy, Elon Musk received no compensation for 2024, but in 2018 he was awarded a multiyear package that has been valued at $56 billion and is the subject of a court battle.

    Other notable CEOs didn’t meet the criteria for inclusion the survey. Starbucks’ Brian Niccol received a pay package valued at $95.8 million, but he only took over as CEO on Sept. 9. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang saw his compensation grow to $49.9 million, but the company filed its proxy after April 30.

    The pay gap

    At half the companies in AP’s annual pay survey, it would take the worker at the middle of the company’s pay scale 192 years to make what the CEO did in one. Companies have been required to disclose this so-called pay ratio since 2018.

    The pay ratio tends to be highest at companies in industries where wages are typically low. For instance, at cruise line company Carnival Corp., its CEO earned nearly 1,300 times the median pay of $16,900 for its workers. McDonald’s CEO makes about 1,000 times what a worker making the company’s median pay does. Both companies have operations that span numerous countries.

    Overall, wages and benefits netted by private-sector workers in the U.S. rose 3.6% through 2024, according to the Labor Department. The average worker in the U.S. makes $65,460 a year. That figure rises to $92,000 when benefits such as health care and other insurance are included.

    “With CEO pay continuing to climb, we still have an enormous problem with excessive pay gaps,” Anderson said. “These huge disparities are not only unfair to lower-level workers who are making significant contributions to company value – they also undercut enterprise effectiveness by lowering employee morale and boosting turnover rates.”

    Some gains for female CEOs

    This photo provided by Otis Elevator Co. shows CEO Judy Marks. (via AP)

    This photo provided by Otis Elevator Co. shows CEO Judy Marks. (via AP)

    For the 27 women who made the AP survey — the highest number dating back to 2014 — median pay rose 10.7% to $20 million. That compares to a 9.7% increase to $16.8 million for their male counterparts.

    The highest earner among female CEOs was Judith Marks of Otis Worldwide, with a pay package valued at $42.1 million. The company, known for its elevators and escalators, has had operating profit above $2 billion for four straight years. About $35 million of Marks’ compensations was in the form of stock awards.

    Other top earners among female CEOs were Jane Fraser of Citigroup ($31.1 million), Lisa Su of Advanced Micro Devices ($31 million), Mary Barra at General Motors ($29.5 million) and Laura Alber at Williams-Sonoma ($27.7 million).

    FILEw - Jane Fraser, CEO, Citigroup, speaks during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee oversight hearing to examine Wall Street firms on Capitol Hill, Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023 in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

    FILEw – Jane Fraser, CEO, Citigroup, speaks during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee oversight hearing to examine Wall Street firms on Capitol Hill, Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023 in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

    Lisa Su, CEO of Advanced Micro Devices, arrives for a dinner at the Elysee Palace, during an event on the sidelines of the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit in Paris, Monday, Feb. 10, 2025. (AP Photo/Thomas Padilla, File)

    Lisa Su, CEO of Advanced Micro Devices, arrives for a dinner at the Elysee Palace, during an event on the sidelines of the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit in Paris, Monday, Feb. 10, 2025. (AP Photo/Thomas Padilla, File)

    Christy Glass, a professor of sociology at Utah State University who studies equity, inclusion and leadership, said while there may be a few more women on the top paid CEO list, overall equity trends are stagnating, particularly as companies cut back on DEI programs.

    “There are maybe a couple more names on the list, but we’re really not moving the needle significantly,” she said.

    FILE- Mary Barra, chair and CEO of General Motors, talks to David Rubenstein during an interview hosted by the Economic Club of Washington, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough, File)

    FILE- Mary Barra, chair and CEO of General Motors, talks to David Rubenstein during an interview hosted by the Economic Club of Washington, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough, File)

    Prioritizing security

    Equilar found that a larger number of companies are offering security perquisites as part of executive compensation packages, possibly in reaction to the December shooting of UnitedHealthCare CEO Brian Thompson.

    Equilar said an analysis of 208 companies in the S&P 500 that filed proxy statements by April 2 showed that the median spending on security rose to $94,276 last year from $69,180 in 2023.

    Among the companies that increased their security perks were Centene, which provides health care services to Medicare and Medicaid, and the chipmaker Intel.

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    Reporters Matt Ott and Chris Rugaber in Washington contributed.

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  • US stocks rally to records on hopes for cuts to interest rates

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    NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. stock market rallied to records on Tuesday after data suggested inflation across the country was a touch better last month than economists expected.

    The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to top its all-time high set two weeks ago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 483 points, or 1.1%, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.4% to set its own record.

    Stocks got a lift from hopes that the better-than-expected inflation report will give the Federal Reserve leeway to cut interest rates at its next meeting in September.

    Lower rates would give a boost to investment prices and to the economy by making it cheaper for U.S. households and businesses to borrow to buy houses, cars or equipment. President Donald Trump has angrily been calling for cuts to help the economy, often insulting the Fed’s chair personally while doing so.

    AP AUDIO: Wall Street rises toward records on hopes for lower interest rates

    AP business correspondent Seth Sutel reports markets are leaning higher.

    But the Fed has been hesitant because of the possibility that Trump’s tariffs could make inflation much worse. Lowering rates would give inflation more fuel, potentially adding oxygen to a growing fire. That’s why Fed officials have said they wanted to see more data come in about inflation before moving.

    Tuesday’s report said U.S. consumers paid prices for groceries, gasoline and other costs of living that were overall 2.7% higher in July than a year earlier. That’s the same inflation rate as June’s, and it was below the 2.8% that economists expected.

    The report pushed traders on Wall Street to increase bets that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time this year in September. They’re betting on a 94% chance of that, up from nearly 86% a day earlier, according to data from CME Group.

    The Fed will receive one more report on inflation, as well as one more on the U.S. job market, before its next meeting, which ends Sept. 17. The most recent jobs report was a stunner, coming in much weaker than economists expected.

    Some economists warn that more twists and turns in upcoming data could make the Fed’s upcoming decisions not so easy. Its twin goals are to get inflation to 2% while keeping the job market healthy. Helping one with interest rates, though, often means hurting the other.

    Even Tuesday’s better-than-expected inflation report had some discouraging undertones. An underlying measure of inflation, which economists say does a better job of predicting where inflation may be heading, hit its highest point since early this year, noted Gary Schlossberg, market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. That helped cause some up-and-down swings for Treasury yields in the bond market.

    “Eventually, tariffs can show up in varying degrees in consumer prices, but these one-off price increases don’t happen all at once,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. “That will confound the Fed and economic commentators for months to come.”

    Other central banks around the world have been lowering interest rates, and Australia’s on Tuesday cut for the third time this year.

    On Wall Street, Intel’s stock rose 5.6% after Trump said its CEO has an “amazing story,” less than a week after he had demanded Lip-Bu Tan’s resignation.

    Circle Internet Group, the company behind the popular USDC cryptocurrency that tracks the U.S. dollar, climbed 1.3% despite reporting a larger loss for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It said its total revenue and reserve income grew 53% in its first quarter as a publicly traded company, which topped forecasts.

    On the losing side of Wall Street was Celanese, which sank 13.1% even though the chemical company delivered a better profit than expected. It said that customers in most of its markets continue to be challenged, and CEO Scott Richardson said that “the demand environment does not seem to be improving.”

    Cardinal Health dropped 7.2% despite likewise reporting a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Its revenue fell short of forecasts, and analysts said the market’s expectations were particularly high for the company after its stock had already soared 33.3% for the year coming into the day.

    Critics say the broad U.S. stock market is looking expensive after its surge from a bottom in April. That’s putting pressure on companies to deliver continued growth in profit.

    All told, the S&P 500 rose 72.31 points to 6,445.76. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 483.52 to 44,458.61, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 296.50 to 21,681.90.

    In stock markets abroad, indexes edged up in China after Trump signed an executive order late Monday that delayed hefty tariffs on the world’s second-largest economy by 90 days. The move was widely expected, and the hope is that it will clear the way for a possible deal to avert a dangerous trade war between the United States and China.

    Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 2.1%, and South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.5% for two of the world’s bigger moves.

    In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.28% from 4.27% late Monday.

    The yield on the two-year Treasury, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, fell to 3.73% from 3.76%.

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    AP Business Writers Yuri Kageyama and Matt Ott contributed.

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