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Tag: Fed

  • ‘I just don’t have a good feeling about this’: Top economist Claudia Sahm says the economy quietly shifted while policymakers wait for the wrong alarm | Fortune

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    Analysts’ favourite gauge of the U.S. economy’s health comes from data. And at the moment, the numbers look OK … ish. Hiring is down, but unemployment hasn’t spiked, inflation isn’t ballooning (as feared) because of tariffs, and consumer spending is holding up remarkably well.

    Economist Claudia Sahm is an expert (if not the expert) on the conditions that presage a recession and how policymakers should react as a result. She is the creator of “the Sahm Rule,” an employment indicator monitored by everyone from central banks to the global financial giants. The Sahm Rule says that a recession is likely when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more, relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous year.

    Sahm’s equation has proved invaluable. As JP Morgan observed, it “was 100% accurate prior to the pandemic, dating back to 1959.”

    Therein lies the problem: During the pandemic, Sahm believes the tectonic plates of the economy began shifting and haven’t settled since.

    The labor market has behaved strangely since the pandemic. President Trump’s anti-immigration drive has reduced the number of available workers. Employers have been reluctant to hire for new roles. Unemployment has ticked up but isn’t out of control by historical standards. Hiring remains tight, in a “low-hire, low-fire” environment.

    Secondly, America’s institutions—the courts, the central bank, its federal agencies—have been politically swayed by the Trump Administration. Economists are no longer sure they act independently to provide the checks and balances that historically made the U.S. economy a transparent, and therefore trustworthy, place to do business.

    The former Fed Section Chief who once served as Obama’s senior economist doesn’t think a blow-out event will crash the American economy. Rather, her fear is that aggregating events will reshape these two fundamental factors, and that the usual responses from policymakers are unlikely to be fit for purpose.

    If a path can be charted, Sahm fears we’re moving the wrong way down it.

    Tectonic plate one: Labor

    Many economists have been eyeing the “knife-edge” in the labor market. They are watching the “breakeven number” (the job creation figure needed to stop unemployment from climbing) grind lower and lower, offset by significant immigration, which has reduced labor supply.

    Sahm isn’t so concerned by the month-to-month shifts. Businesses are finding a steadier footing amid tariffs, according to the Fed’s first Beige Book of the year, meaning employers’ low-fire, low-hire approach is no longer driven by fear. Sahm’s concern is longer term: What it means for people looking for work but who can’t find a job, and whether they’ll be ignored by policymakers who are only alert for the technical numbers that signal a downturn.

    “I get concerned when I hear ‘Well, we don’t have layoffs, so we don’t have a recession,’” Sahm told Fortune in an exclusive interview. “But you do have a very low hiring rate. It might not be an aggregate event, it might not be a broad-based contraction like we see in a recession, but it certainly has real implications for workers coming into the labor market.”

    “Something’s happening here,” Sahm adds. “It’s clearly bad for people looking for work, but we can’t just have this, ‘Oh, if we avoid a recession, all is good.’ It could be that we’re dealing with much more structural shifts, and those aren’t just hard to forecast; they’re hard to assess in the moment because those structural shifts can be very slow.”

    AI replacing roles is, of course, a factor. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is monitoring the situation “very carefully.” JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon said LLM-driven layoffs could lead to civil unrest. Yet the hand-wringing over the impact of AI doesn’t explain the depressed hiring rates we’re seeing right now, Sahm said.

    An optimist might suggest that a lower hiring rate is a shake-out from incredibly tight conditions during the pandemic. Between 2022 and early 2024, the Beveridge curve—usually a downward slope illustrating the relationship between job openings and the unemployment rate—was more of a straight line: In theory, for every job opening there was a person in need of a role. Fewer openings at the moment may merely show that employers have found the talent they need, and don’t want to add individuals who—in a tight market—can demand the pay and conditions they want, a phenomenon observed by ADP’s chief economist Dr Nela Richardson.

    The data also isn’t illustrating an economy in need of fiscal stimulus to generate activity—though that’s what it’s getting this year anyway in the form of the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act. Analysts are also banking on interest rate cuts from a more dovish Fed chairman, but again Sahm feels this won’t kickstart sluggish hiring: Sahm described the behavior as how a government might “traditionally” stimulate a weakening economy, “kind of [a] front-end recession response.”

    “But against the backdrop, as best we know from the data, business activity looks pretty OK, consumer activity looks OK. I’m concerned that stimulating more demand isn’t what’s holding back hiring—there’s something else.”

    Sahm’s own creation isn’t demanding action: Currently, the recession indicator is sitting at a mild 0.35. She warned policymakers against relying too heavily on the tool in the current cycle, saying their attention should be focused—”maybe even more so”—on the labor market because “it doesn’t hold the typical pattern, which means our typical tools to fight [it] like a recession may not be the right ones.” 

    Tectonic plate two: Institutions

    For all the ingenuity and commitment it took to build America into the globe’s preeminent economic force, the country would not retain the title if it weren’t for the strength of its institutions. President Trump witnessed the market blip when he threatened the independence of the Federal Reserve with remarks about firing Chairman Powell, and Wall Street has been reinforcing the importance of an autonomous central bank ever since.

    But Trump hasn’t stopped pressuring the Fed, with Chairman Powell now being investigated by a grand jury over expensive renovations to central bank buildings.

    “I think we can look and say up to this point with pretty high confidence, that it’s been economics driving the interest rates,” Sahm said. “What I have a hard time with is [that] the escalation has continued, and the Fed itself is going to go through a transformation this year with a change in leadership. If Powell had two or three more years on his tenure as chair, I would feel more confident than I do with the fact that he has four months left.”

    Like the labor market, Sahm’s concern is that institutions like the Fed—where she spent more than a decade of her career—will be allowed by policymakers to drift.

    “We’re not on a good path, and while I applaud Jay Powell for standing up and having a statement and pushing back, over the long haul that’s not a sufficient check on pressure,” she added. “I don’t know where this goes, and [where] the economy may. We may see inflation come down more rapidly, we may end up in an envionment where lowering interest rates makes sense and we diffuse the issues by that.

    “But I just don’t have a good feeling about this.”

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    Eleanor Pringle

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  • Threat to Fed’s independence boosts economic uncertainty, says Bank of Canada head

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    By David Ljunggren and Promit Mukherjee

    OTTAWA, Jan 28 (Reuters) – The threat to the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve is boosting economic uncertainty ​around the world, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on ‌Wednesday in his strongest comments to date on the outlook for the Fed.

    U.S. President Donald Trump has ‌repeatedly criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, demanding he cut interest rates. He is seeking to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook while the Department of Justice has threatened Powell with a criminal indictment.

    Macklem made his remarks to reporters after keeping rates on ⁠hold amid what he called ‌unusually high levels of uncertainty.

    “I think the threat to the independence of the central bank in the United States is one ‍thing that has sort of been contributing to this sense of uncertainty,” he said.

    “The Federal Reserve is the biggest, most important central bank in the world, and we all need ​it to work well. A loss of independence of the Fed would affect ‌us all,” he added, saying Canada would be particularly affected given its close economic links to the United States.

    Macklem was one of the central bank heads who earlier this month issued a joint statement backing Powell. Last September, Macklem said Trump’s attempts to pressure the Fed were starting to hit markets.

    Keeping central banks ⁠independent lets them take “difficult decisions” that benefit citizens, ​Macklem said.

    “He is doing a good job at ​leading the Fed based on evidence, based on facts … I hope it stays that way. That’s going to be important for everyone,” ‍he said.

    Bank of Canada ⁠senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said a strong Fed benefited virtually every economy in the world because it kept markets and inflation stable.

    “Those things ⁠contribute to predictability and less sort of volatility in rates … there are a lot of reasons ‌for having a strong, independent Fed,” she told the press conference.

    (Reporting ‌by David Ljunggren. Editing by Jane Merriman)

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  • Feds say they foiled New Year’s Eve terror plot in L.A., Southern California

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    A plan to attack several Los Angeles-area businesses on New Year’s Eve was detailed, dangerous and already in motion, authorities said.

    But as four people allegedly tied to an anti-government group gathered last week in the Mojave Desert to make and test several test bombs, FBI officials foiled the terror plot.

    They had everything they needed to make an operational bomb at that location,” First Assistant U.S. Atty. Bill Essayli said at a news conference Monday morning. “We disrupted this terror plot before buildings were demolished or innocent people were killed.”

    The four people were arrested on suspicion of plotting an attack that Essayli called “organized, sophisticated and extremely violent.” They were all tied to a radical faction of the Turtle Island Liberation Front called Order of the Black Lotus, which FBI Assistant Director in Charge Akil Davis called “a violent homegrown anti-government group.”

    Officials wouldn’t say what buildings or businesses were planned to be targeted but Essayli said they were different “logistics centers” similar to ones that Amazon might have.

    Officials said they believe that everyone involved in the planned attack has been arrested, though the investigation into the plot remains ongoing.

    The four alleged conspirators, Audrey Carroll, Zachary Page, Dante Gaffield and Tina Lai, have been charged with conspiracy and possession of an unregistered destructive device, Essayli said.

    “The subjects arrested envisioned planting backpacks with improvised explosive devices to be detonated at multiple locations in Southern California, targeting U.S. companies,” Davis said.

    The plans the FBI uncovered also included follow-up attacks after the bombings, which included plans to target ICE agents and vehicles with pipe bombs, Essayli said.

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    Grace Toohey

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  • Here’s Why Bitcoin’s Reaction To Fed Policy Turns Bearish After Each FOMC Update

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    The Bitcoin’s behavior around US Federal Reserve announcements has become one of the most consistent market patterns of the year. After every FOMC update, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has reacted with a noticeable downside move, underscoring how closely the asset is now tied to shifting interest-rate expectations and broader macro sentiment. 

    What Future FOMC Meetings Could Mean For Bitcoin

    In an X post, analyst CryptoMichNL has mentioned that the Federal Reserve (FED) is preparing to update the printer from 2021 liquidity settings toward a more supportive 2025 stance. However, this doesn’t mean it will have an immediate impact on the markets, as these things take time. As a result of the update, Bitcoin has dropped after every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in 2025, but these moves are primarily aimed at flushing out longs through high liquidations.

    According to the expert, the actual move on the markets and the direction should come in the next 1-2 weeks, which would give a better outlook going into 2026. The bullish trend has remained intact, and the thesis is still valid. However, BTC shouldn’t break the lows during the FOMC flush. Instead, it should break the $92,000 resistance zone to retest the $100,000 level.

    Bitcoin is still moving in a choppy pattern, driven by illiquid order books and fast moves in both directions. CryptoMichNL has also highlighted that BTC is still in for a new upward breakout in the coming days to weeks. Despite the volatility, BTC has continued to form higher lows, which is a clear sign that an upward structure is building.

    CryptoMichNL noted that, as the price doesn’t break down anymore, the heavy correction in the market was highly manipulated and not organic, which is very natural for the market to return to normal.

    Why Bitcoin Market Structure Remains Intact Despite Deep Pullback

    Bitcoin has not proven to be any different from the cycle. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, pointed out that the good initial bounce is right off the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is taken from the entire cycle move. Realistically, that was the lowest the price could go without breaking the broader weekly market structure.

    According to Daan, the invalidation is clearly the higher-timeframe outlook, and the November lows would become a very uncomfortable place for the bulls. As the year comes to an end, a lot of the 4-year cycle selling should also be diminishing. Meanwhile, Q1 2026 is shaping up to be extremely important as it will likely reveal where the BTC cycle will move next.

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    Godspower Owie

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  • Bitcoin’s Market Structure Strengthens Despite Slower Trading Activity — Here’s Why

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    Despite a noticeable cooldown in trading volumes, Bitcoin’s underlying market structure has continued to strengthen. The price action has stabilized within a narrow range as long-term holders maintain firm conviction. As more BTC flows into cold storage and supply on exchanges tightens, the market is transitioning from hype-driven swings to steady structural support.

    How The Price Compression Builds Energy For A Larger Move

    CIO and founder of MNFund and MNCapital, CryptoMichNL, emphasized that Bitcoin shares a strong correlation with the Nasdaq. While Nasdaq continues to show steady resilience, BTC has stalled behind. This mismatch creates a mispricing and market divergence, which is why the path toward $100,000 remains wide open and why the 4-year cycle thesis doesn’t hold up.

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    Recently, BTC saw a massive correction, dropping from $115,000 to $80,000 in just two weeks. During that same liquidation period, what LVisserLabs calls the rotation between Pure Vol vs. Pure Profitability or Beta vs. Quality has fallen sharply. Beta here refers to high-volatility, high-beta stocks, which are essentially tech stocks that drive the markets. Meanwhile, Quality means more risk-off assets, including high-quality, profitable, and stable companies. 

    BTC exhibiting momentum for a rally | Source: Chart from CryptoMichNL

    Currently, BTC has stalled after the sell-off, and the Beta assets have recovered substantially, implying that the stocks have inverted their loss with the big drop and are now grinding upwards, signaling that risk-on appetite is clearly back. With this kind of structural divergence, it’s likely that in the coming weeks or months, BTC will grind upward to $110,000 and $115,000 levels, reversing the drop as the entire correction was a little dubious.

    CryptoMichNL advised that instead of relying on a time-based sounding the 4-year cycle assumption, it is better to focus on the charts and macro relationships that directly influence BTC price.

    On-Chain Activity Shows Clear Confidence From Big Money

    The ambassador of StandXOfficial and the KOL of Binance, who is also an advisor at KOLsAgency, Investor Ucan, has highlighted that the evidence of Bitcoin’s latest upward move is already on-chain. The last six hours have revealed a clear surge of institutional demand. On-chain data shows that Binance purchased 7,298 BTC, Coinbase bought 1,362 BTC, Wintermute bought 2,174 BTC, BlacRock bought 1,362 BTC, and an unknown whale bought 6,192 BTC. In total, 20,438 BTC were purchased in just six hours, valued at approximately $1.9 billion.

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    Ucan noted that the timing of this purchase is what stands out. These inflows hit the market hours before the Federal Reserve’s upcoming employment data was released. Institutional is clearly expecting a supportive outcome. A positive print refers to easing expectations and fresh liquidity on the horizon. Retail traders are reacting, and the institutions are anticipating early. If the Fed confirms what these flows imply, today’s buying won’t look like simple momentum, but preparation.

    Bitcoin
    BTC trading at $92,087 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

    Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Godspower Owie

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  • Selling Storm: Bitcoin Whales Could Drive Prices Down Further, Experts Warn

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    According to exchange data, inflows to trading venues topped 9,000 Bitcoin on Nov. 21 as prices slid to $80,600 on Coinbase — the weakest showing in seven months.

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    Reports show that about 45% of those deposits came in chunks of 100 BTC or more, and on one day large transfers reached 7,000 BTC.

    The average deposit size in November rose to 1.23 BTC, the largest monthly figure in a year. Those numbers point to more than casual rebalancing; they point to coins being moved where they can be sold.

    Binance Stablecoins Hit Record

    According to market coverage, Binance’s stablecoin holdings climbed to a record $51 billion. At the same time, BTC and Ether inflows to exchanges swelled to roughly $40 billion this week, with Binance and Coinbase leading the move.

    Traders often park funds in dollar-pegged tokens when they want to wait on the sidelines. That build-up means cash is available, but it is sitting idle until sellers either step back or buyers turn up again.

    Analysts Eye Further Pullback

    Some market watchers warn the recent recovery could be only a pause, flagging remaining margin positions and suggested a test of lower levels.

    They said a wick into the $70k–$80k zone would be one way to clear out the last pockets of exposure.

    10x Research put resistance levels at $92,000 and $101,000 as the key ranges to watch during any rebound.

    For context, Bitcoin had clawed back above $90,000 and was trading slightly higher at the time of reporting, but it remains down about 28% from the all-time high north of $126,000 reached in October.

    BTCUSD currently trading at $91,681. Chart: TradingView

    Short-Term Bounce, Not A Full Recovery

    Meanwhile, market moves in stocks and crypto have shown mixed signals. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were pushing gains as investors bet on a US Fed rate cut, and that helped risk assets.

    Yet reports from strategists show the usual close link between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has weakened, with Bitcoin’s decline steeper in recent weeks.

    Ether and many altcoins also faced higher exchange inflows, and several tokens returned to bear-market lows as selling pressure widened.

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    What This Means Next

    Liquidity is present but it is parked in stablecoins, and big holders are still moving assets toward exchanges. A meaningful rally will likely need either heavy buying demand or a clear catalyst that draws those stablecoins back into risk assets.

    For now, the market sits in a waiting mode: a short rally could continue, but a deeper dip remains possible as positions get cleared and sellers complete their rotations.

    Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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    Christian Encila

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  • Wall Street is on tenterhooks about the Fed’s ‘rare, genuinely suspenseful’ December meeting, because the committee itself doesn’t know what to make of the data—or of each other | Fortune

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    If the market doesn’t seem sure whether or not to expect a base interest rate cut next month, it’s not alone—members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) themselves may have little clue which way the vote is going to go.

    In the run-up to this week, the mood was one of disappointment that the FOMC wouldn’t deliver a final cut for 2025, an action many analysts had priced in since this summer. A week ago, investors hedged their bets at a 50/50 likelihood of a base rate cut to 3.75 to 4%, from its current position at 4 to 4.25%.

    But the tides changed quickly, based on both data and comments from members of the FOMC, and at the time of writing, CME’s FedWatch barometer places an 81% probability of a cut early next month.

    A key part of the shift came after comments from the New York Fed’s John Williams, who joined voices like Trump appointee Stephen Miran and Governor Chris Waller in advocating for a cut. This, analysts warned this morning, may need to be taken with a pinch of salt: Members will be asking whether their peers are truly dovish, or are ruffling feathers in order to catch the eye of President Trump and secure a nomination for Fed Chairman next year.

    Data isn’t making the path much clearer. The first payroll report after the end of the government shutdown painted a pallid picture of the jobs market. Powell called it a “low hire, low fire” environment. The unemployment rate remained relatively stable at 4.4%, and the jobs market added a relatively small 119,000 roles in September.

    Offsetting the tepid employment outlook, which forms one part of the Fed’s mandate, is the inflation question. Members of the FOMC are mindful that inflation remains comfortably ahead of its 2% target, a trend that is likely to come into even greater focus during a period of high consumer spending.

    This combination means holiday spending data holds more levity than usual; in fact, it is “crucial,” wrote Professor Jeremy Siegel, Emeritus Professor of finance at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

    Writing for WisdomTree yesterday, where he is senior economist, Professor Siegel added: “Real-time credit-card reads and retail commentary will reveal far more about underlying consumer momentum than backward-looking payroll reports that remain distorted by the shutdown. Strong spending will tilt the Fed toward a December pause; soft spending makes the December meeting genuinely live.”

    As such, “this is the most uncertain FOMC meeting in years because the committee itself doesn’t yet know the answer,” added Professor Siegel, “Powell prefers to signal decisions well in advance, but the data simply is not speaking loudly enough.”

    Williams signalling an openness to a cut is “groundwork” from the dovish camp, the professor added, while hawks are insisting the data is not strong enough either way to prompt action: “It sets up a rare, genuinely suspenseful meeting—one where investors should expect volatility around both the statement and the new dot plot.”

    A question of motivation

    Goldman Sachs’s chief economist Jan Hatzius shares the opinion of President Williams, arguing that the payroll data for September is weak enough to motivate a cut. In a note released Sunday, Hatzius wrote: “His view is likely consistent with that of Chair Powell—who almost certainly wrote down three cuts in the September dot plot—and a majority of the 12 voting FOMC members, though not necessarily a majority of all 19 FOMC participants.

    “With the next jobs report now scheduled for December 16 and CPI for December 18, there is little on the calendar to derail a cut on December 10.”

    However, with Chair Powell due to step down next year—much to the joy of President Trump, who has repeatedly criticised him for refusing to cut the base rate—it may be hard to separate the through doves from those auditioning for the role.

    As UBS chief economist Paul Donovan said this morning: “U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who President Trump is considering as a candidate for Fed Chair, supported Trump’s calls for more rate cuts yesterday. Waller advocated a December rate cut, which got markets somewhat excited, although Waller justified this with suggestions that the U.S. labor market might perhaps be in trouble.”

    Donovan countered that a higher inflation rate is being accommodated by U.S. households saving less, suggesting a level of confidence in the jobs market. “If Waller is right,” Donovan added, “the U.S. economy is at quite significant risk, and this should be a major concern for financial markets.

    “If, however, this call is merely a subtly-disguised cry of ‘Pick me! Pick me!’ aimed at Trump, then markets will focus on the benefits of monetary accommodation and not the mooted risks it is purportedly offsetting.”

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    Eleanor Pringle

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  • The Fed Just Changed Everything For Crypto, Says Top Trader

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    The Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of 2025 has landed—25 basis points on September 17—and, in Trader Mayne’s telling, that removes the last macro “X-factor” hanging over the crypto market. In a video analysis posted the same day, the veteran price-action trader argued that with the policy move now in the rear-view mirror, crypto can “just focus on the charts,” sketching a roadmap in which Bitcoin posts one more leg higher into new all-time highs before a pullback ushers in a classic altseason blow-off. “We had FOMC today and the rates got cut finally… It’s 25 basis points,” he said. “Now the market’s going to digest it.”

    Where Is Bitcoin Price Going Next?

    The policy backdrop he’s reacting to is straightforward: the FOMC lowered the fed funds target range by a quarter point to 4.00%–4.25% on Sept. 17, with Chair Jerome Powell describing the move as a risk-management response to weakening labor dynamics and leaving the door open to additional easing this year. The decision drew an 11–1 vote, with newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a larger, 50 bps cut—an unusually hawkish dissent in a dovish direction—while the Board’s implementation note reset key administered rates effective Sept. 18. Markets read the statement and projections as signaling scope for further cuts into year-end.

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    From here, Mayne’s framework is unapologetically technical. He characterizes Bitcoin’s most recent upswing as corrective relative to the prior impulse and expects price to “push above the mid-range” toward a range high around $120,000–$121,000, where he will watch for rejection at a higher-time-frame confluence defined by a weekly swing-failure pattern (SFP) and an H12 breaker.

    If momentum stalls there, he plans to short into a washout to clear out built-up leverage—“HYPE made another all-time high today. PUMP has tripled in the last two weeks… there’s some leverage in the system”—and then buy the dip for what he calls the last parabolic leg of the cycle. “Any sort of dip on BTC, I want to be looking for a long,” he said, adding that a shallow retest in the $110,000–$111,000 area or a deeper sweep of recent lows would both be acceptable springboards if the rebound is decisive.

    If, instead, price grinds through the $120,000 s with no signs of exhaustion, Mayne says he has “no problem” flipping to breakout longs above the all-time high once strength is confirmed intraday—an approach that mirrors his playbook from prior expansions (“Once this thing broke out aggressively… you’re looking for longs”). He emphasizes sequence over prediction: the short he’s eyeing is counter-trend—“a pullback in an uptrend”—and the prime objective remains to position for the next impulsive advance.

    When Will The Crypto Market Top?

    Timing-wise, he situates the prospective cycle top in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026, describing a pattern in which Bitcoin’s final vertical leg into the $150,000 to $180,000 region is followed by distribution while altcoins reprice higher—the archetypal altseason.

    Bitcoin price prediction
    Bitcoin price prediction | Source: YouTube @Trader Mayne

    “This parabolic leg I think would be the last leg of the bull run,” he said, before outlining notional alt targets consistent with a late-cycle melt-up: Ethereum $5,000–$7,000, Solana $300–$500, Dogecoin $0.50–$0.70. The mechanics, as he narrates them: a last BTC push, a corrective wash, a V-shaped reclaim of the 2024 ATH “very quickly,” then Q4 “mania” with breadth shifting to large-cap alts as Bitcoin distributes.

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    The technical scaffolding behind that view leans on concepts familiar to discretionary price-action traders. Weekly SFPs (failed breaks of prior extremes) set the trap line at range edges; H12 breakers and order blocks frame high-probability reaction zones; and fair-value gaps guide where liquidity vacuums might fill during a corrective flush.

    On structure, he insists the weekly trend remains up, so any short is tactical and any deeper dip must resolve in a swift V-bottom and reclaim of the former highs to keep the cyclical script intact. His invalidation is equally clear: “If we spend any significant time back below [the 2024 all-time high], it’s really bad… I’m probably going to reassess my thoughts.”

    Macro, in Mayne’s view, now recedes to the background. The rate cut may have helped pull forward some September strength—“you could argue… the up move we’ve seen on Bitcoin… is in anticipation of this rate cut”—but with the decision made and Powell hinting there “could be another one… there could be two,” his emphasis is squarely on execution: wait for price to trade into the $120,000s and signal weakness for the clean counter-trend short; or, absent weakness, wait for the breakout continuation and ride it. Either way, he’s explicit about the north star for the coming weeks: “Focus on Bitcoin… Any sort of dip on BTC, I want to be looking for a long… Then altseason.”

    At press time, BTC traded at $117,176.

    Bitcoin price
    BTC eyes the 1.272 Fib extension, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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  • Federal Reserve to announce interest rate cut amid economic slowdown, pressure from President Trump

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    Federal Reserve to announce interest rate cut amid economic slowdown, pressure from President Trump

    The Federal Reserve is set to announce an interest rate cut this week in response to a slowing economy, making clear it is not surrendering to President Donald Trump’s demands.

    Updated: 7:42 AM PDT Sep 14, 2025

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    The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a long-awaited interest rate cut this week, responding to a slowing economy as opposed to yielding to President Donald Trump’s demands. Recent data shows hiring is slowing and unemployment is ticking up, which would normally call for an interest rate cut. Lower interest rates make borrowing money for things like cars and credit cards cheaper. At the same time, inflation remains stubbornly high, which is usually solved by keeping interest rates where they are and leaving costly prices up.With a big decision facing the Fed, added pressure from President Trump isn’t helping. Experts say his repeated calls for the Fed to lower interest rates are damaging the agency’s independence and credibility, spooking investors and the market. “If the Fed is politicized and they’re acting based upon political pressures rather than accurate economic data, that’s going to send messages throughout the economy that maybe what they’re doing isn’t really good for the economy, and maybe it doesn’t come from a solid place of evidence,” political analyst Todd Belt said. “It will introduce even more uncertainty in the economy, and uncertainty is the enemy of business planning.”President Trump’s tariffs have also injected lots of uncertainty in the market, and economists say that, in turn, will further drive up inflation.In a further escalation involving the president and the Fed, last week, a federal judge blocked Trump’s unprecedented attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, alleging mortgage fraud. Now, the administration is appealing and is pushing the courts for an emergency ruling before the Fed’s big interest rate decision this week. But a big twist could undermine the administration’s case, as the Associated Press reports that Cook previously referred to the property in question as a “vacation home,” which would contradict the White House’s accusations of fraud.Watch the latest on the Federal Reserve:

    The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a long-awaited interest rate cut this week, responding to a slowing economy as opposed to yielding to President Donald Trump’s demands.

    Recent data shows hiring is slowing and unemployment is ticking up, which would normally call for an interest rate cut. Lower interest rates make borrowing money for things like cars and credit cards cheaper.

    At the same time, inflation remains stubbornly high, which is usually solved by keeping interest rates where they are and leaving costly prices up.

    With a big decision facing the Fed, added pressure from President Trump isn’t helping. Experts say his repeated calls for the Fed to lower interest rates are damaging the agency’s independence and credibility, spooking investors and the market.

    “If the Fed is politicized and they’re acting based upon political pressures rather than accurate economic data, that’s going to send messages throughout the economy that maybe what they’re doing isn’t really good for the economy, and maybe it doesn’t come from a solid place of evidence,” political analyst Todd Belt said. “It will introduce even more uncertainty in the economy, and uncertainty is the enemy of business planning.”

    President Trump’s tariffs have also injected lots of uncertainty in the market, and economists say that, in turn, will further drive up inflation.

    In a further escalation involving the president and the Fed, last week, a federal judge blocked Trump’s unprecedented attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, alleging mortgage fraud.

    Now, the administration is appealing and is pushing the courts for an emergency ruling before the Fed’s big interest rate decision this week. But a big twist could undermine the administration’s case, as the Associated Press reports that Cook previously referred to the property in question as a “vacation home,” which would contradict the White House’s accusations of fraud.

    Watch the latest on the Federal Reserve:

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  • Another California county is losing its only hospital after feds refuse to step in

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    Absent a Hail Mary, Glenn County’s only hospital is set to close its doors in October.

    Tucked between two national forests, the rural county is home to 28,000 people. Without a local emergency room, they’ll instead have to travel at least 40 minutes to a neighboring county for critical care. One hundred and fifty health workers will lose their jobs; they’re already resigning to seek work elsewhere.

    The planned closure of Glenn Medical Center follows a decision by the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to strip the hospital’s federal “critical access” designation, a status that has provided Glenn Medical increased reimbursement and regulatory flexibility. Without that status, the hospital’s $28 million in net annual revenue will take a hit of about 40% — a gap too large to fill any other way than closing the hospital, said Lauren Still, the hospital’s chief executive.

    “It’s heartbreaking that we come to this. I am still kind of praying for that 11th-hour miracle to come through,” Still said. “But honestly, we just have to be realistic, and this is the hand we’ve been dealt.”

    Over the last several months, Still and her team have been attempting to make their case with the federal health agency, even flying to Washington, D.C., in July in an attempt to lobby their case.

    At the crux of the issue is a federal rule, newly reinterpreted, that requires critical access hospitals to be at least 35 miles from the next closest hospital when traveling by main roads. Officials at CMS now say that the next closest hospital, Colusa Medical Center, is only 32 miles away — three miles short of the required distance.

    Glenn Medical Center and county health officials argue that most people and ambulances take a different route, I-5 to Highway 20. That route is 35.7 miles, a distance that would qualify.

    “We really felt that by getting all of our stories out there … showing all of the different people that would be impacted by this decision, we really thought that would be enough information for them [CMS] to consider the human and practical considerations of their decision,” Still said. “Unfortunately, the only thing that matters is how they’re measuring the distance on the roads.”

    The feds first notified Glenn Medical in April that a recertification review found the hospital was not eligible for the critical access program. Hospital officials clung to hope that an appeal and communication with the agency would clarify the situation. But in a letter dated Aug. 13, the agency told the hospital it was standing by its original decision.

    “After reviewing the hospital’s additional information, CMS found that the hospital continues to not meet the distance requirement,” the letter reads.

    The locations of Glenn Medical Center and its neighbor a county over have not changed since Glenn Medical first became eligible for the critical access program in 2001. CalMatters asked the federal agency why it was seeking to revoke the hospital’s designation now after more than two decades of eligibility at the same distance. The agency did not directly answer the question, but in an email simply reiterated the requirements to qualify for the program.

    CMS said Glenn Medical Center could convert to another provider type in order to continue participating in the Medicare program. But Still said no other Medicare reimbursement model would pay the hospital at a financially sustainable rate. Under the critical access program, the federal government pays hospitals 101% of their costs for inpatient and outpatient services provided to Medicare patients.

    U.S. Rep. Doug LaMalfa, a Richvale Republican who represents Glenn County, said he continues to have conversations with Dr. Mehmet Oz, the administrator at CMS. He said they last spoke last week.

    “We’re not giving up by any stretch; we’re going to pull out all the stops,” LaMalfa said. “We had a really good conversation with Dr. Oz and are looking for a way to make it work because the closure is not acceptable. It’s a technical issue that we ought to find a way to work through.”

    LaMalfa said he is considering introducing a bill that could update the mileage requirement or give CMS more discretion when evaluating rural hospitals. But it’s unclear that something could get done before October.

    Glenn Medical Center and its staff cannot wait for much longer. The hospital announced it would keep its clinics open, but inpatient services will cease Oct. 21. Still said that’s when she expects to no longer have enough staff to be able to operate.

    “We had to start talking to staff and telling staff that, “Hey, we don’t have a future here. There’s no viable path forward for us without that critical access designation,’” Still said. “At that point, we started getting staff resignations.”

    With the announced closure, most Glenn County residents will have to seek emergency services either at the hospital in Colusa County or further away at Butte County’s Enloe Medical Center, a larger Level II trauma center in Chico.

    “We are actively reviewing available resources to ensure our readiness to absorb anticipated increased patient volumes at the Enloe Health Emergency Department,” wrote Enloe Health in an unsigned statement.

    Glenn County’s two ambulances will also have to travel further and be outside the county for longer periods of time, leaving residents with even more limited emergency resources.

    The announced closure is a stark reminder of the precarious state of California’s rural hospitals. Even with increased Medicare reimbursement, Glenn Medical Center’s annual financial statements show that the hospital consistently operated in the red.

    Two years ago, the state bailed out 17 rural and community hospitals – Glenn Medical was not one of them – by loaning them close to $300 million altogether. That loan program was largely prompted by the closure of Madera Community Hospital, which also left an entire county without emergency services. After bankruptcy proceedings, Madera Community is now owned and operated by American Advanced Management, a for-profit company that has made a business out of rescuing distressed and shuttered hospitals. The company also owns Glenn Medical Center.

    “It’s devastating for our group from a personal perspective because we really do pride ourselves in being somebody who comes in and reopens hospitals,” Still said. “When we go into a community, we make that promise to the community that we’re not going to bail on them.”

    Ana B. Ibarra writes for CalMatters.

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  • Bessent met with BlackRock’s Rieder as search for next Fed chair continues, source says

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    By Andrea Shalal

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with BlackRock Inc executive Rick Rieder in New York on Friday, as the Trump administration continued its search for a new chair for the Federal Reserve, a source familiar with the matter said.

    Bessent has now spoken with four of the 11 candidates on the administration’s list of candidates to replace Fed chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May, the source said.

    Bloomberg first reported Bessent’s meeting with Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO of fixed income, and called him a rising contender for the post. The two met for two hours and discussed monetary policy, the Fed’s organizational structure and regulatory policy, it said.

    U.S. President Donald Trump had told reporters at the White House a week ago that his short list for the job included his aide Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller.

    At the time, Trump said he had eyed Bessent for the job, but the Treasury secretary declined.

    Bessent has said he will meet with the candidates to whittle down the list and present Trump with a list of top contenders.

    TRUMP HAS RAILED AGAINST POWELL

    Trump has made clear he intends to install a Fed leader more aligned with his push for rapid interest-rate cuts after months of railing against Powell for being “too late” to lower interest rates and bring down borrowing costs.

    Powell’s Fed has kept rates on hold all year on concern that Trump’s tariffs could reignite inflation, although his concerns have shifted recently to focus more on the slowing labor market.

    The U.S. Senate is slated to vote on Monday to confirm White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran to the Fed, which starts a two-day meeting Tuesday at which it is expected to cut its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point. Miran will retain his White House job, but take an unpaid leave while at the Fed.

    Miran would replace Adriana Kugler, who was appointed by former President Joe Biden and resigned as Fed governor last month.

    Trump has sought to fire another Fed governor appointed by Biden, Lisa Cook, but that move has been blocked for now by a federal judge.

    (Reporting by Andrea Shalal; editing by Edward Tobin)

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  • Crypto At Risk — JPMorgan Warns Fed Cut Could Spark Crash

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    JPMorgan’s US trading desk is cautioning clients that a widely expected Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17 could mark a near-term peak for risk assets rather than a new leg higher—an outcome that would not spare crypto.

    In a note flagged by desk head Andrew Tyler, the bank writes: “We have concerns that the September 17 Fed meeting which delivers a 25bp cut could turn into a ‘Sell the News’ event as investors pullback to consider macro data, Fed’s reaction function, potentially stretched positioning, a weaker corporate buyback bid, and waning participation from the Retail investor.”

    The timing matters. The Fed’s next policy meeting runs September 16–17, with a statement and press conference scheduled for Wednesday, September 17. That calendar alone has become a catalyst as traders position around both the size of the cut and the tone of the guidance.

    Related Reading

    Standard Chartered, pointing to a labor market that has cooled far faster than anticipated, now expects the Fed to deliver a 50-basis-point move. “August labor market data has paved the way for a ‘catch-up’ 50 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, similar to what occurred at this time last year,” the bank said, after US nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000 in August and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%.

    JPMorgan’s desk is not abandoning its “lower-conviction Tactical Bullish” stance, but it is urging investors to carry insurance into the event. In addition to recommending that equity investors “consider” adding or increasing gold exposure as cut expectations sap the dollar, Tyler’s team spelled out more explicit hedges for a volatility shock: “we like VIX call spreads or VXX longs as a hedge, as well as parts of Defensives.”

    The macro backdrop has indeed turned more complicated. August payrolls barely grew and prior data were revised down, while the unemployment rate rose to a near four-year high, developments that have hardened expectations for policy easing but also raised the specter of a growth scare.

    Meanwhile, gold has been screaming higher—printing successive record highs above $3,600/oz—as investors price both easier policy and broader political-economic risk. Those concurrent signals—weakening labor, stronger bullion—frame why a rate cut may not automatically equal “risk-on” for beta.

    Crypto Faces Volatility Test

    For crypto, the read-through is two-sided and highly path dependent. On one hand, the same jobs-driven repricing that has juiced gold has also supported bitcoin in recent sessions as traders lean into the idea of easier money and a softer dollar—classic tailwinds for risk assets and for store-of-value narratives alike.

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    On the other hand, a mechanical “equities down, vol up” impulse around the decision would likely transmit into crypto assets, where cross-asset de-risking and margin unwinds have historically amplified intraday swings. That tension is visible in current coverage: bitcoin has bounced back toward the $112k area alongside rate-cut bets, yet several market observers warn that a run-of-the-mill 25bp move—especially if framed as a “hawkish cut”—may fail to spark a sustained crypto rally.

    Notably, a “catch-up” 50bp cut, as Standard Chartered projects, would accelerate the compression in real yields and could weaken the dollar at the margin—conditions that have tended to support bitcoin and liquidity-sensitive altcoins when the move is not seen as recessionary triage.

    Conversely, a smaller or caveated cut could deliver precisely the “sell the news” pattern JPMorgan warns about, with equities and high-beta assets like crypto marking lower first before reassessing the glide path. History is no lodestar—post-cut outcomes have ranged from strong rallies in mid-cycle adjustments to drawdowns when cuts presaged recession—but it does argue for elevated realized volatility around the first step.

    At press time, Bitcoin traded at $112,739.

    Bitcoin price
    BTC reclaims the EMA50, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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  • Trump’s attempt to fire Lisa Cook from the Fed: What to know

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    President Donald Trump is seeking to fire Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, citing allegations surrounding mortgage forms she filed before she became a Fed governor.

    The Federal Reserve is arguably the most important player in shaping the economy in the U.S. — and possibly the world. In his second term, Trump has consistently attacked the institution and its chair, Jerome Powell, for failing to lower interest rates as fast as he wants. 

    But the Fed was established to be independent of political influence, and the effort by Trump to fire Cook represents a breach of historical norms — and possibly the law. Cook was nominated by President Joe Biden and is the first Black woman to serve as a Fed governor. Her term runs until 2038, and she has said she is not resigning.

    Here’s some background on the legal dispute and what it may entail.

    How are Fed board members chosen and how long do they serve?

    The Fed is headed by seven governors nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate. The president selects and the Senate confirms a chair and two vice chairs from among the governors. These governors serve nonrenewable 14-year terms, while the chair and vice chairs serve renewable four-year terms. 

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    The Fed’s most closely watched power comes from monetary policy decisions, which are determined by the Federal Open Market Committee. This committee, which meets at least every six weeks, includes the seven governors, the president of the New York Fed, and four presidents of the remaining 11 regional banks, who rotate on and off the committee.

    This structure means that Cook is one of the committee’s seven permanent members. One position is currently vacant, following Biden appointee Adriana Kugler’s Aug. 8 resignation. Trump nominated White House Council of Economic Advisers chair Stephen Miran to succeed Kugler, which will require Senate confirmation. Cook, if she is forced out, would offer Trump a second governor vacancy to fill.

    During his first term, Trump appointed Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller as Fed governors. He also initially appointed Powell as chair, before becoming disenchanted with him.

    What has Trump done to try to oust Cook?

    After increasing rhetoric against Cook, Trump on Aug. 25 released a letter in which he said he was immediately dismissing Cook on Truth Social

    Trump cited a “criminal referral” from Federal Housing Finance Agency Director William Pulte, a Trump appointee, relating to mortgage fraud. Pulte and Trump allege that Cook falsely attested on loan forms that homes in both Atlanta and Ann Arbor, Michigan, qualified as her primary residence, potentially allowing her to secure a lower interest rate.

    “The Federal Reserve has tremendous responsibility for setting interest rates and regulating reserve and member banks,” Trump wrote. “The American people must be able to have full confidence in the honesty of the members entrusted with setting policy and overseeing the Federal Reserve. In light of your deceitful and potentially criminal conduct in a financial matter, they cannot and I do not have such confidence in your integrity.”

    Cook said the firing was unsupported by the law.

    “President Trump purported to fire me ‘for cause’ when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so,” her statement said. “I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022.”

    On Aug. 26, her lawyer, Abbe Lowell, announced that Cook would sue to block her firing.

    The same day, the Fed said through a spokesperson that “Cook has indicated through her personal attorney that she will promptly challenge this action in court and seek a judicial decision that would confirm her ability to continue to fulfill her responsibilities as a Senate-confirmed member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.”

    How can a Fed governor be removed?

    The Federal Reserve Act says governors can be removed from their position only “for cause.” The interpretation of this phrase will be central to the legal fight over Cook’s status.

    “‘For cause’ generally means inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office,” said Daniel Farber, a University of California-Berkeley law professor. “Arguably, none of those apply since the conduct took place before Cook was in office. But legal precedent is scanty.”

    In addition, Trump’s decision to fire Cook rests on “allegations from one of his loyalists,” rather than a conviction, said Carl Tobias, a University of Richmond law professor.

    Trump may not need a conviction, which could take more than a year to play out, said Frank O. Bowman III, a University of Missouri emeritus law professor. But Bowman said something more than an allegation ought to be necessary.

    “Unless judges are willing to impose some minimal process, some standard of misconduct seriousness, and some evidentiary standard, the ‘for cause’ requirement becomes illusory,” Bowman said. 

    Legal experts expect the Supreme Court to weigh in on the question eventually. Under Trump, the court has been deferential to the president’s ability to fire federal officials, even those that had previously been assumed to be safe from such ousters.

    However, in a May procedural decision, a majority allowed Trump to proceed in removing members of the National Labor Relations Board and the Merit Systems Protection Board — but specifically noted that the Federal Reserve is a “uniquely structured, quasi-private entity” that fell outside the bounds of its decision to green-light Trump’s firings elsewhere.

    If Cook’s case reaches the high court, Farber said, “the odds favor her, but I don’t think it’s a slam-dunk case.”

    Why is this dispute important?

    Trump wants the Fed to lower interest rates, which could encourage investment and home purchases.

    However, some economists say this would be risky — not only because inflation hasn’t fully returned to the Fed’s target 2% rate since spiking to around 9% in 2022, but also because Trump’s aggressive tariff policy could drive prices higher. The Fed was designed with political insulation, because higher rates to keep inflation low may not be popular with the president or other elected officials.

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  • A Trump donor, now a regulator, leads effort to accuse president’s foes of mortgage fraud

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    Behind a White House effort to saddle President Trump’s political foes with accusations of mortgage fraud is a 37-year-old home construction executive with a deep partisan past.

    Bill Pulte, a Florida native, rose in Trump’s orbit toward the end of his first term. After courting Trump for years on social media and through generous donations, he now runs the Federal Housing Finance Agency — a perch that has allowed him to target prominent figures who have crossed the president.

    In the last five months, Pulte has referred three claims of mortgage fraud against Trump’s foes to the Justice Department, leveled against Letitia James, the attorney general of New York; Adam Schiff, the Democratic senator from California; and this week, Lisa Cook, a governor on the board of the Federal Reserve.

    Each has denied wrongdoing. Trump announced on Monday night that he was moving to fire Cook.

    It is an unusual role for a director of the FHFA, which regulates Fannie Mae — the nation’s largest company by assets — and Freddie Mac. The two mortgage financing organizations, which support nearly half of the U.S. residential mortgage market, were taken over by the FHFA during the 2008 economic crisis.

    The grandson of one of Michigan’s wealthiest and most prolific homebuilders, Pulte made a name for himself on Twitter in 2019 with public cash giveaways to individuals in need. He dubbed himself the “inventor of Twitter philanthropy,” vowing to give two cars away in exchange for a Trump retweet that year, which he received. He subsequently built a following of over 3 million.

    Records show Pulte donated substantially to Trump, the Republican National Committee and related super PACs leading up to the 2024 election.

    Pulte’s letters to Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi have been tightly and cautiously written. But his social media posts, celebrating the targeted attacks, have not.

    “Trump becomes the first president ever to remove a sitting Federal Reserve governor,” he wrote on X, between retweets of right-wing commentators praising the move. “Mortgage fraud can carry up to 30 years in prison.”

    In another post on X, quoting a CNN headline, Pulte wrote that Trump’s firing of Cook was “escalating his battle against the central bank” — seeming to acknowledge that targeting Cook was motivated by Trump’s ongoing grievances with Fed leadership.

    Cook’s firing is legally dubious, and her attorney, Abbe Lowell, said in a statement that Cook plans on suing the administration while continuing to perform her duties for the Fed. Lowell also represents James in her defense against the Justice Department case.

    While the Supreme Court ruled in May that Trump may fire individuals from independent federal agencies, the justices singled out the Fed as an exception, calling it a “uniquely structured, quasi-private entity.” The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 states that the president may fire a member of its leadership only “for cause.”

    But cause has not been definitively established to fire Cook, with Pulte writing in his letter to Bondi that the Fed governor had only “potentially” committed mortgage fraud, accusing her of falsifying bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms.

    Pulte has accused Cook of listing two homes — in Ann Arbor, Mich., and in Atlanta — as her primary addresses within two weeks of purchasing them through financing. Cook said she would “take any questions about my financial history seriously” and was “gathering the accurate information to answer any legitimate questions and provide the facts.”

    Pulte’s other accusations, against James and Schiff, have been similarly superficial, publicly accusing individuals of potential criminality before a full, independent investigation can take place.

    And whether those investigations will be impartial is far from clear. Earlier this month, Bondi appointed Ed Martin, a conspiracy theorist who supported the “Stop the Steal” movement after Joe Biden’s election victory over Trump in 2020, as a special prosecutor to investigate the James and Schiff cases.

    Pulte accused James — who successfully accused Trump of financial fraud in a civil suit last year — of falsifying bank statements and property records to secure more favorable loan terms for homes in Virginia and New York. He made similar claims weeks later about Schiff, who maintains residences in California and the suburbs of Washington, D.C.

    Schiff, who led a House impeachment of Trump during the president’s first term and has remained one of his most vocal and forceful political adversaries since joining the Senate, dismissed the president’s claims as a “baseless attempt at political retribution.”

    A spokesperson for Schiff said he has always been transparent about owning two homes, in part to be able to raise his children near him in Washington, and has always followed the law — and advice from House counsel — in arranging his mortgages.

    In making his claims, Trump cited an investigation by the Fannie Mae “Financial Crimes Division” as his source.

    A memorandum reviewed by The Times from Fannie Mae investigators to Pulte does not accuse Schiff of mortgage fraud. It noted that investigators had been asked by the FHFA inspector general’s office for loan files and “any related investigative or quality control documentation” for Schiff’s homes.

    Investigators said they found that Schiff at various points identified both his home in Potomac, Md., and a Burbank unit he also owns as his primary residence. As a result, they concluded that Schiff and his wife, Eve, “engaged in a sustained pattern of possible occupancy misrepresentation” on their home loans between 2009 and 2020.

    The investigators did not say they had concluded that a crime had been committed, nor did they mention the word “fraud” in the memo.

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    Michael Wilner

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  • Mortgage rates are rising. Experts cite economic strength, inflation and possible Trump win

    Mortgage rates are rising. Experts cite economic strength, inflation and possible Trump win

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    In September, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2020, giving hope to prospective home buyers that mortgage rates would follow suit.

    But instead of declining, home loan costs marched higher.

    On Thursday, mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported the average rate on a 30-year home loan rose to 6.72%, up from 6.54% a week earlier. It was the fifth consecutive week of increases.

    “People are confused,” said Jeff Lazerson, president of Mortgage Grader in Laguna Niguel. “They are saying ‘What’s going on?’”

    The fact that mortgage rates have gone up despite the cut underscores that while the Federal Reserve influences mortgage rates, it does not set them.

    Instead, rates are determined by what institutional investors who purchase bundles of mortgages are willing to pay for them and a variety of factors influence those investors.

    One is the benchmark rate the Fed cut in September, which sets a floor on borrowing costs throughout the economy. Another is expectations for inflation. That’s because when purchasing 30-year mortgages, investors don’t want to see the value of their investment eaten away as the years march on.

    Mortgage rates fell in advance of the Fed’s decision in September, because investors priced in the expectation the Fed would be able to cut because inflation had eased.

    Experts said one major reason rates have risen since is because economic data has come in stronger than expected. That’s convinced investors inflation will stay higher for longer and the Fed won’t be able to cut rates as much as they otherwise could have. Similarly, if the job market is stronger, there’s less of a need to cut rates to spur growth.

    “You see a lot of positive economic surprises,” said Kara Ng, an economist with Zillow, who cited a strong jobs report in September as one example.

    Political factors could be at play as well as presidential election polls have tightened in recent weeks.

    Chen Zhao, an economist with real estate brokerage Redfin, said it appears investors increasingly believe former President Trump will best Vice President Kamala Harris and retake the White House.

    According to a recent survey from the Wall Street Journal, most economists predict inflation and interest rates would be higher under policies proposed by Trump, who among other measures has called for sweeping tariffs on imported goods.

    “The link between tariffs and inflation is just very stark,” Zhao said. “There is not a lot of controversy there.”

    As rates rise, home buyers feel the pinch.

    Lazerson, the Orange County mortgage broker, said he’s seen business slow to a “trickle” after an initial burst when rates dropped around the Fed announcement.

    The reason is simple math.

    When rates hit their recent bottom of 6.08% in September, the monthly principal and interest payment on a $800,000 house would have been $3,870. It’s now $4,138.

    According to the weekly Freddie Mac survey, rates are still below 7%, a level last seen in May. However, a daily tracker from Mortgage News Daily puts them above that threshold.

    Zhao said what happens with rates next depends on a variety of factors, including who wins the election and what policies they actually enact.

    If there isn’t a policy shift, she would expect mortgage rates to come down next year because inflation is easing. On Thursday, an inflation measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve dropped to near pre-pandemic levels.

    Even so, economists say borrowers shouldn’t expect pandemic-era mortgage rates of 3% and below. Those rates were the byproduct of a massive federal effort to revive an economy where unemployment hit levels last seen in the Great Depression.

    “We are talking about [mortgage rates in] the high fives, low sixes” Zhao said. “If President Trump does win, there is certainly a lot more risk that rates could be higher.”

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    Andrew Khouri

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  • Mortgage rates are falling. How far will they go?

    Mortgage rates are falling. How far will they go?

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    For many prospective homebuyers, the last two years have been brutal as high home prices and mortgage rates produced the most unaffordable housing market since the 2000s bubble.

    Many experts don’t expect drastic improvement soon, but a shift could finally be underway.

    The cost of a 30-year fixed mortgage has fallen from above 7% in May to the low-6% range as of last week. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since it began raising it in 2022 in a bid to fight inflation.

    “I think for the next two years, we are in a world where the pressure is on rates to come down,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist with real estate brokerage Redfin.

    How much mortgage rates will decline is unclear.

    The cost for a mortgage is heavily influenced by inflation because institutional investors that buy 30-year mortgages that are packed into bundles don’t want to see the value of their investment eaten away.

    Experts attribute the recent decline in mortgage rates to easing inflation, as well as expectations that because consumer prices are rising less, that will enable the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate.

    The central bank’s federal funds rate does not directly affect mortgage rates, but it can do so indirectly since it sets a floor on all borrowing costs and provides a signal of how entrenched the Fed thinks inflation is.

    Keith Gumbinger, vice president of research firm HSH.com, said a Fed cut Wednesday may not move mortgage rates much because, to some extent, mortgage investors have already priced in the expectation that rates would decline.

    More cuts, however, are expected in the future.

    Gumbinger said if the Fed achieves a so-called soft landing — taming inflation without causing a recession — he would expect mortgage rates to be in the mid-5% range by this time next year.

    If the economy turns sour, mortgage rates could fall further, though even in that scenario Gumbinger doubted they’d reach the 3% and below range of the pandemic.

    Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist with Zillow, predicted that rates would not even fall to 5.5% but would stay around where they are, arguing that the economy is relatively strong and inflation is unlikely to ease much.

    “I don’t think we are going to see a huge drop, but what we have seen has been great for homebuyers so far,” he said.

    Indeed, even modest drops in borrowing costs can have a big effect on affordability.

    If a buyer puts 20% down on an $800,000 house, the monthly principal and interest payments would equal $4,258 with a 7% mortgage; $3,837 with a 6% mortgage; and $3,436 with a 5% mortgage.

    Whether dropping rates bring lasting relief is another question. Falling borrowing costs could attract a flood of additional buyers and send home prices higher — especially if increased demand isn’t met by an increase in supply.

    For now, the number of homes for sale is increasing modestly, rates are falling and home price growth is slowing.

    In August, home prices across Southern California dipped slightly from the prior month. Values were still up nearly 6% from a year earlier, but that was smaller than the 12-month increase of 9.5% in April, according to data from Zillow.

    In theory, this combination of factors could provide prospective buyers an opportunity to get into the market. Many don’t appear to be doing so.

    According to Redfin, 7.8% fewer homes across the U.S. went into escrow during the four weeks that ended Sept 8 compared with a year earlier.

    In Los Angeles County, pending sales were up 2% from a year ago but down from earlier in the summer.

    Fairweather said buyers might not be jumping in now because they haven’t realized rates have gone down or they are temporarily scared off by recent changes to real estate commission rules.

    Some agents say they are noticing a pickup.

    Costanza Genoese-Zerbi, an L.A.-area Redfin agent, said she’s recently noticed more first-time buyers out shopping, leading to an uptick in multiple offers in entry-level neighborhoods where people are more sensitive to rates.

    Other agents aren’t seeing much of a boost.

    Real estate agent Jake Sullivan, who specializes in the South Bay and San Pedro, has a theory: Homes are still far more expensive than they were just a few years ago.

    Home insurance costs have risen as well.

    “The cost of living is just so high,” Sullivan said.

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    Andrew Khouri

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  • Crypto Watch: Today’s FOMC Is The ‘Most Important Of Your Life’

    Crypto Watch: Today’s FOMC Is The ‘Most Important Of Your Life’

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    For the crypto and broader financial market, FOMC day is upon us once again today. And analysts agree that today’s meeting will be one of the most important in recent years. Kurt S. Altrichter, a financial advisor and founder of Ivory Hill, even describes today’s FOMC meeting as the “most important of your life.” In a new post on X, Altrichter explains why.

    FOMC Preview

    Central to today’s FOMC meeting is the Federal Reserve’s potential indication of a September rate cut. According to Altrichter, the financial markets are almost unanimously anticipating this move, with Fed fund futures indicating a near-certain likelihood of such an outcome. “Market expectation is a strong signal for a September rate cut,” Altrichter points out, marking today’s update as a pivotal moment for financial markets.

    The key question for today is: “How strongly does the Fed signal a September rate cut?” the expert explains. Investors are directed to pay close attention to the FOMC’s statement at 2:00 pm ET, especially the third paragraph, which could subtly signal the Fed’s confidence in reaching its inflation targets.

    Related Reading

    Altrichter advises, “Look at the 3rd paragraph for this key sentence: The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.” Any modification in this wording would be a clear signal that the Fed is nearing its inflation control goals, potentially paving the way for rate adjustments.

    Altrichter outlines several potential outcomes from the meeting, each associated with specific market reactions. In a dovish scenario, the Fed signals a rate cut for September. Then, Altrichter expects a broad market rally, especially in sectors less sensitive to interest rates. “Yields and the dollar should fall modestly with a modest rally in commodities,” Altrichter predicts, suggesting significant movements in standard and sector-specific indexes.

    In a hawkish scenario, there will be no change in the forward guidance by the US central bank. If the Fed maintains its current stance without hinting at future cuts, the markets might experience a downturn. “Look out below and expect a sharp decline. SPX should fall by 1-2%,” he warns, noting that tech and growth sectors might relatively outperform due to their appeal during higher yield periods.

    How Will Bitcoin And Crypto React?

    The potential adjustments in US monetary policy bear direct consequences for the Bitcoin and crypto markets. Crypto, often viewed as alternative investments, reacts sensitively to shifts in monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates.

    Related Reading

    If the dovish scenario materializes, this could make Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more appealing. A signal of lower future rates could drive increased investment into the crypto market, potentially leading to price increases as investors seek higher returns in alternative assets.

    Conversely, should the Fed signal reluctance to cut rates, indicating a stronger economic outlook or concerns about inflation, this could strengthen the US dollar and increase yields on traditional financial instruments. Such an environment might lead to a pullback in the crypto markets, as the comparative advantage of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies diminishes against strengthening traditional yields.

    Max Schwartzman, CEO of Because Bitcoin Inc, commented via X: “FOMC is [today] & its incredibly important as we get into the end of this fed cycle… Here is how the last 11 meetings have gone for Bitcoin…”

    How Bitcoin reacted the last 11 times | Source: X @MaxBecauseBTC

    Thus, today’s FOMC meeting is a watershed moment for financial markets globally, with significant implications for both traditional and crypto markets. As Altrichter succinctly puts it, “A Sept Fed rate cut has driven the 2024 bull market. Tomorrow’s meeting will either reinforce that tailwind or refute it. If the Fed signals a cut, the rally continues. No signal: markets could get ugly.”

    At press time, BTC traded at $66,462.

    Bitcoin price
    BTC bounces off the 20-day EMA, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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  • FOMC Preview: Bitcoin and Crypto’s Fate Tied To Fed Rate Move

    FOMC Preview: Bitcoin and Crypto’s Fate Tied To Fed Rate Move

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    In the lead-up to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for Wednesday, March 20, the Bitcoin and crypto market is experiencing a severe downtrend. BTC price has plunged roughly -10% in the past two days, and Ethereum (ETH) is down -12% in the same period.

    The anticipation surrounding the Fed’s stance on interest rates has heightened in the wake of recent economic indicators, including unexpected spikes in the  US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), stirring volatility across markets, including digital assets.

    The consensus, with a 99% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool, suggests interest rates will hold steady. Nonetheless, the spotlight turns to the Fed’s dot plot, a graphical representation of the individual members’ expectations for future interest rates, which could provide crucial insights into the monetary policy outlook for the coming months and years.

    Target Rate Probabilities | Source: CME FedWatch Tool

    Anna Wong, Chief US Economist for Bloomberg, remarked via X (formerly Twitter), “Another reason why FOMC [is] not ready to cut: members not yet of broad agreement of that need. Here’s visualizing the dispersion of FOMC views with the help of our new weekly NLP Fed spectrometer. “

    How Will Bitcoin And Crypto React?

    Macro analyst Ted, expressing his perspective on X, underscores the nuanced relationship between macroeconomic trends and the crypto market at the moment. Ted elucidated that spot Bitcoin ETF flows have taken the backseat while macro factors came to the foreground.

    He stated via X, “If BTC is to be considered digital gold, it’s expected to mirror gold’s market movements, albeit with a higher degree of volatility. In the current climate, with the market bracing for the Fed’s upcoming meeting, macroeconomic factors momentarily take precedence, driven by recent developments in PPI and CPI figures.”

    He further speculates that “Despite the eventual remarks from [Fed Chair] Powell, the market has already adopted a hawkish stance in anticipation of a ‘higher for longer’ interest rate scenario.”

    Michaël van de Poppe, a noted figure in the crypto analysis domain, provided his insights on the recent downward price movement of Bitcoin via X, citing a mix of factors including the anticipation of the FOMC meeting and significant capital outflows from Grayscale‘s Bitcoin Trust. Van de Poppe advises, “It’s typically in these pre-FOMC periods, perceived as risk-off intervals, that the savvy investor finds opportunities to ‘buy the dip’.”

    In a reflection of market sentiment adjustments, analyst @10delta on X pointed out the strategic positioning of investors in anticipation of the Fed’s rate decisions. “The market is currently pricing in a reversal to the November ’23 interest rate levels, a clear indication that investors are adjusting their expectations based on the Fed’s potential pivot signaled in the previous dot plot,” he noted.

    Accordingly, he argues that the FOMC & dot plot will be a “buy the news” event as the market expectations are being properly adjusted. “The macro worries […] should dissipate & crypto idiosyncratic bullish factors, such as the ETF inflows […] as well as the BTC halving take hold. All considered I think there’s a good R/R for ‘buying the dip’ heading into the March 20 event,” the analyst added.

    Goldman Sachs Predicts (Only) 3 Rate Cuts This Year

    Goldman Sachs Research recently provided a detailed analysis in their March FOMC Preview. The report highlights the nuanced balance the Fed seeks to achieve between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.

    “Our revised forecast now anticipates three rate cuts in 2024, a slight adjustment from our previous prediction, primarily due to a modest uptick in the inflation trajectory,” Goldman Sachs analysts elucidated. They further speculate, “While the immediate focus is on maintaining current rate levels, the trajectory for rate cuts will hinge on inflation dynamics and economic performance indicators.”

    Goldman Sachs further predicts that the Fed will still target a first cut in June. “This combined with a default pace of one cut per quarter implies that the most natural outcome for the median dot is to remain unchanged at 3 cuts or 4.625% for 2024,” the banking giant remarked.

    As the crypto market and broader financial ecosystems await the outcomes of the FOMC meeting, the prevailing sentiment is one of cautious anticipation. Market participants are closely monitoring the Fed’s commentary for indications of future monetary policy directions via the dot plot.

    The question for the Bitcoin and crypto market is whether there will be an unpleasant surprise or whether market participants were right with their “higher for longer” policy assumption.

    At press time, BTC found support at the $62,400 price level, trading at $63,118.

    Bitcoin price
    Bitcoin price, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

    Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

    Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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    Jake Simmons

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  • A hard-landing recession is guaranteed as the full impact of Fed rate hikes have yet to hit the economy, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist says

    A hard-landing recession is guaranteed as the full impact of Fed rate hikes have yet to hit the economy, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist says

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    Market crash graphicGetty Images

    • A hard landing is guaranteed for the US Morgan Stanley’s chief US economist.

    • That’s because the full impacts of Fed tightening haven’t been fully felt in the economy.

    • It could take 18 months after the last rate hike to feel the full weight of higher rates, economists say.

    A hard-landing recession is certain to come for the economy, and high rates are to blame even as markets start positioning for the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy this year, according to Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley’s chief  US economist.

    Speaking to CNBC on Monday, Zentner pointed to Jamie Dimon’s recent comments on the economy, where the JPMorgan boss warned that the chance of a soft landing was about half of the 70%-80% odds other forecasters were predicting. That’s due to a number of risks still facing the US, including the Fed’s tightening regime, geopolitical conflict, and interest rates, which central bankers have said could remain higher for longer.

    Zentner is expecting the US to avoid a recession this year, as there’s no data to support a soon-to-come downturn. But a hard-landing is unavoidable she warned.

    “We will have a hard landing at some point. I guarantee you that. We’re all wondering when does that come,” she said. “The point that Dimon makes is that there are these cumulative impacts that build over time, and we are in the camp that we haven’t seen all of the tightening impacts of monetary policy,” she added, referring to the impact of Fed rate hikes.

    Fed officials raised interest rates a whopping 525 basis points in 18 months to tame inflation, a move that’s taken borrowing costs in the economy to their highest level since 2001.

    Economists have warned high interest rates could spark a recession as financial conditions become restrictive, and the full impact of rate hikes likely hasn’t been felt, as they typically take around 18 months to fully work their way through the economy.

    Signs of stress are beginning to show in parts of the financial system. Corporate defaults soared last year to their highest level since the pandemic, according to Moody’s Analytics. Bank lending has fallen for three straight quarters, according to Fed data.

    Still, signs point to the Fed keeping interest rates elevated as it keeps an eye on inflation. Consumer prices came in hotter than expected last month, with inflation rising 3.1% year-over year in January.

    Inflation will likely reaccelerate over the first quarter, Zentner predicted, pointing to the 3.9% growth in core inflation last month. That re-acceleration could show up in the next consumer price index report, which markets are expecting later this week.

    “We do expect inflation acceleration to be temporary, but that is an open question,” Zentner said, adding that markets may now have to consider Fed rate cuts pushed beyond mid-year.

    Investors had been pricing in ambitious rate cuts to come in 2024, but many forecasters have dialed back their expectations amid hot inflation data. Markets are now pricing in a 39% chance that the Fed could lower rates by 100 basis points or more by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    Read the original article on Business Insider

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  • How to navigate market risk from interest rates, the economy and politics in 2024

    How to navigate market risk from interest rates, the economy and politics in 2024

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    As the U.S. Federal Reserve’s three-year reign in the headlines potentially comes to an end, an analysis of this year’s market themes can offer valuable insights for predicting trends and ensuring attractive returns in 2024.

    Beyond the central bank’s actions, pivotal factors shaping the investment landscape this year include fiscal policies, election outcomes, interest rates and earnings prospects.

    Throughout 2023, a prominent theme emerged: that equities are influenced by factors beyond monetary policy. That trend is likely to persist. 

    A decline in interest rates could significantly increase the relative valuations of equities while simultaneously reducing interest expenses, potentially transforming market dynamics. Contrary to consensus estimates, 2023 brought a more robust earnings rebound, leaving analysts optimistic about 2024.

    The 2024 U.S. presidential election, meanwhile, introduces a new element of uncertainty with the potential to cast a shadow over the market during much of the coming year. 

    Choppy trading, modest earnings growth

    Anticipating a choppy first half of the year due to sluggish economic growth, we see a better opportunity for cyclicals and small-cap stocks to rebound in the latter part of the year. As uncertainty around the election and recession fears dissipate, a broad rally that includes previously ignored cyclicals and small-caps should help propel the S&P 500
    SPX
    higher. 

    Broader macroeconomic conditions support mid-single-digit growth in earnings per share throughout 2024. Factors such as moderate economic expansion, controlled inflation and stable interest rates are expected to provide a conducive environment for companies, enabling them to sustain and potentially improve their earnings performance. We estimate EPS growth of 6.5%. This projected growth aligns with the broader market sentiment indicating a steady upward trajectory in earnings for the upcoming year, fostering investor confidence and supporting valuation expectations across various sectors.

    If the economy has not been in recession at the time of the first rate cut but enters one within a year, the Dow enters a bear market.

    When it comes to U.S. stock-market performance around rate cuts, the phase of the economic cycle matters. When there has been no recession, lower rates have juiced the markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    rallying by an average of 23.8% one year later.

    If the economy has not been in recession at the time of the first cut but enters one within a year, the Dow has entered a bear market every time, declining by an average of 4.9% one year later. Our base case is a soft landing, but history shows how critical avoiding recession is for the bull market as the Fed prepares to ease policy.   

    Big on small-caps

    This past year has posed a hurdle for small-cap stocks due to the absence of a driving force. These stocks typically perform better as the economy emerges from a recession. While they are currently undervalued, their earnings growth has been notably lacking. If concerns about a recession diminish, a normal yield curve could serve as a potential catalyst for small-cap stocks.

    Growth vs. value

    The ongoing outperformance of megacap growth stocks that we saw in 2023 might hinge on their ability to sustain superior earnings growth, validating their current valuations. Defensive sectors in the value category, meanwhile, are notably oversold and might exhibit strong performance, particularly toward the latter part of the first quarter. Should concerns about a recession dissipate, cyclical sectors within the value category could outperform, particularly if broader market conditions turn favorable in the latter half of the year.

    Handling uncertainty

    The Fed’s enduring influence regarding the prospect of a soft landing in 2024 remains a pivotal point in the market’s focus. Considering the themes of the past year and the multifaceted influences on equities beyond monetary policy, investors are advised to navigate through uncertainties stemming from unintended fiscal shifts, upcoming elections and the impact of fluctuating interest rates. While a potentially choppy start to the year is anticipated, it could create opportunities for cyclical and small-cap stocks later in the year.

    Ed Clissold is chief of U.S. strategies at Ned Davis Research.

    Also read: Mortgage rates dip after Fed meeting. Freddie Mac expects rates to decline more.

    More: After the Fed’s comments, grab these CD rates while you still can

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