Tag: featured savings

Are U.S. rate cuts on the way?

While Canada’s inflation rate is obviously at the forefront around decision making for the Bank of Canada (BoC) in setting the key interest rate, inflation below the border is also a major consideration. Arguably, policymakers are loath to devalue the Canadian dollar beyond a certain level. Consequently, if U.S. inflation stays high—and U.S. interest rates correspondingly stay high—it will likely impact just how quickly the BoC can cut our interest rates.

“The Canadian and American economies are very closely intertwined, especially when it comes to the cost of borrowing. Historically the BoC and the Fed have mirrored each other in terms of monetary policy (the act of cutting, holding, or hiking their benchmark interest rates).”

—Penelope Graham, mortgage expert

Markets were mostly flat on Thursday after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that headline CPI was down 0.1% from May, and the 12-month inflation reading was now 3%.

Overall, the down-trending inflation rate, as well as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments about holding interest rates too high for too long this week, both seem to indicate a probable rate cut in September. CME Group’s FedWatch tracker uses futures contracts to predict the likelihood of interest rate movements, and it currently shows a strong likelihood of two interest rate cuts before the end of 2024. There is even a 40% probability of three cuts before year end.

Obviously this is welcome news to indebted Americans, but also to Canadian consumers who want to see interest rates come down here sooner rather than later.

—Kyle Prevost

Pepsi’s revenues taste flat

Beverage-and-snack behemoth PepsiCo released lukewarm earnings news on Thursday. For those who aren’t familiar with Pepsi’s corporate structure, it long ago ceased to be a single-beverage entity. With brands ranging from numerous snack and soft drink choice to breakfast cereals, Pepsi is a diversified food conglomerate, including FritoLay and Quaker.

The company cited a declining demand in North America as the main factor in slowing revenue growth. Company executives explained that North American consumers were becoming more price conscious after failing to “push back” on significant price increases over the last few years. Low-income shoppers were highlighted as being the most willing consumer group to shift to cheaper private-label options. As well, increasing agricultural commodity costs were cited as an increasing operating expense. It’s worth noting that some market watchers believe weight-loss drugs, such as Ozempic and Wegovy, may curb demand for snack foods in the North American market.

FritoLay’s North America sales were down 4% year over year, while North American beverages were down 3%. Those sales declines were offset by international revenue increasing by 7% year to date. Management highlighted that this was the 13th straight consecutive quarter with at least mid-single-digit organic revenue growth for international operations.

Prediction: Tesla will finish the year down 30%

Let’s wait and see how this one goes. If I wrote this column a week ago, I would have said Tesla looked like an excellent bet to be down 30% by year end. But shares jumped more than 10% this week on its positive second-quarter news. Despite the high numbers for vehicle deliveries, it has been a volatile year for Tesla shareholders, with prices down 42% at one point. Our central thesis was that decreased profit margins and increased competition would lead to lower profit projections. That still feels solid to me. 

Prediction: Crypto might be volatile, but could finish 2024 up 50%

This one hit the bullseye. After going on a tear in February, bitcoin was down almost 20% between mid-March and the beginning of May. 

Overall, bitcoin only has to go up slightly over the next six months to meet that 50% return prediction. Of course, I believe the asset will be ultimately worth very little in the long term. Admittedly, I’m quite skeptical about crypto.

Prediction: U.S. election in November will be chaotic

We also predicted that this election year would be more chaotic than most, even though U.S. election years are historically quite positive for U.S. stock markets. We shied away from making too many specific predictions about how a Biden/Trump victory would impact stock-market prices, but said many market-watchers would be cheering for a split government. 

Well, it’s certainly been chaotic in the headlines. As the rest of the world watches in disbelief, the 2024 U.S. election has so far proven to be the most volatile campaign in recent memory—and maybe of all time. At this point, betting markets think it’s a coin toss as to whether Biden even makes it as the Democratic Party nominee. Ordinarily, a political candidate running against a convicted felon would be an easy win. Then again, ordinarily, a candidate running against an incumbent whose own party isn’t sure he’s still right for the job would be an easy win as well.

Given all the variables, we don’t even know how to measure the degree of accuracy of this prediction. We did reluctantly predict a very slim Biden victory, and that doesn’t look like such a great prognostication now that Trump is a fairly strong betting favourite. However, our strong feeling was that a split government would lead to a robust end of the year for U.S. stocks. That scenario could still be very much in play. We’re going to wait to fully assess this one.

What’s left of 2024?

After a very accurate round of 2023 predictions, we were statistically unlikely to repeat the feat in 2024. While we may have called it wrong about U.S. tech, I think there’s a good chance we’re going to get the big picture stuff right—by the end of the year. Despite a ton of negative headlines and general “bad vibes” over the last six months, one of my big takeaways is that the world’s stock markets (and especially America’s) should continue to reward patient Canadian investors.

Read more about investing:

About Kyle Prevost

Kyle Prevost is a financial educator, author and speaker. He is also the creator of 4 Steps to a Worry-Free Retirement, Canada’s DIY retirement planning course.

If the summer heat doesn’t get you, inflation will

Canadians hoping for interest rate relief will likely have to wait a bit longer. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for May came in at 2.9%, according to Statistics Canada. 

The money markets predict a 45% chance that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut rates at its July 24 meeting. Lowering interest rates after a month of renewed inflation worries would carry a large credibility risk for the BoC, after it raised rates so quickly to restore faith that it would tame inflation over the long term.

We’re sure the BoC was hoping for inflation to be closer to 2.5%, which would allow it to justify cutting interest rates and point to a stronger downward trend for inflation. Continuing to balance long-term growth and full employment versus controlled inflation isn’t going to get easier anytime soon for BoC governor Tiff Macklem and his team. 

For now, savers will continue to benefit from higher interest rates, like those of guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) and high-interest savings accounts (HISAs), while borrowers keep hoping for relief sooner rather than later. And, of course, to read about how to invest in a high-inflation world, see our article on the best low-risk investments at MillionDollarJourney.com.

FedEx delivers, Nike just doesn’t do it

It was a tale of two extremes in U.S. earnings this week as FedEx shareholders became quite happy, while Nike investors were down in the dumps.

Nike finance chief Matthew Friend found himself in an odd position on his earnings call with analysts on Thursday. On one hand, Nike’s effort to reduce costs by shedding 1,500 jobs is paying off, and earnings per share came in substantially higher than experts predicted. On the other hand, declining sales in China and “increased macro uncertainty” were cited as reasons for a predicted sales drop of 10% in the next quarter. Investors chose to see the half-empty part of the glass, as shares plunged more than 12% in after-hours trading.

Friend attempted to put the downward forecast in perspective: “While our outlook for the near term has softened, we remain confident in Nike’s competitive position in China in the long term.” Nike highlighted running, women’s apparel and the Jordan brand as growth areas to watch going forward.

FedEx had a much better day, as shares were up more than 15% after it announced earnings on Tuesday. Future earnings projections were up on the news of increased cost-cutting efforts that will save the company about $4 billion over the next two years. FedEx announced possible increased profit margins as a result of consolidating its air and ground services.

Cash-strapped consumers pinch Couche-Tard

Canada’s 13th-largest company, the gas and convenience store empire known as Alimentation Couche-Tard, announced its earnings on Tuesday.

We’re building more houses—and prices are down!

On Monday, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation announced housing starts rose from 241,111 units in April to 264,506 units in May: good for a 10% increase. The pace was highest in Montreal, where starts were up 104%, and in Toronto, they were notably up 47%. That’s a pretty good clip, considering how high interest rates are at the moment.

While it would be statistically correct to say that this level of housing starts is near historically high levels, that doesn’t quite tell the whole story.

To get a more accurate historical perspective, we should consider the housing starts per capita over the years. After all, Canada’s higher population should mean more capital, carpenters, electricians and other factors of production that go into housing creation, right?

Perhaps we’re moving in the right direction, but we’ll need a major uptick in housing starts before we have proportionately the same housing creation numbers as we did back in the heyday of the 1970s. Many young Canadians are hoping recent government incentives will spur more housing development sooner rather than later.

While there is more housing supply on the way, it appears that high interest rates continue to affect the current market. This week, the Canadian Real Estate Association released data that revealed total Canadian home sales were down nearly 6% in May on a year-over-year basis. The average home price slipped to $699,117, down 4% from May 2023 and about 14.4% from its peak in February 2022.

While the small interest rate cut earlier this month may spark some renewed appetite in the real estate market, it’s notable that the number of newly listed properties has jumped 28.4% from this time last year. As more mortgage renewals start to come up, it will be interesting to see which force is stronger: the increase in demand as mortgage rates decrease, or the continued softening of the market as more folks are forced to list houses they can no longer afford (as well as more new units being added).

What does the average Canadian buy?

Each month, Statistics Canada produces  an inflation report based on the consumer price index (CPI), a representative “basket” of goods and services across eight categories (food, shelter, transportation, etc.) whose prices are tracked over time. Most of us simply accept that the CPI is a good measurement to go by, while others think it’s out of touch with reality. This week, the CPI got its annual update, after the Statistics Canada team looked at how average consumer preferences have changed over the last 12 months. 

The CPI can’t stay the same from year to year because what we buy changes significantly over time. Consequently, measuring inflation with exactly the same goods from years ago doesn’t make much sense. For example, compact discs and videocassettes would have been part of the CPI basket back in my childhood—probably not so much today. Here are some of the more notable changes:

It appears the rising AI tide continues to lift all boats in the U.S. tech sector.

Deal-seeking customers power Dollarama

It was a quiet week for Canadian earnings announcements, with Dollarama (DOL/TSX) being the only large company to release quarterly results. Some Canadian investors might not realize that this humble dollar store is actually the 33rd biggest company in Canada, making it larger than Telus, Rogers or Fortis.

Comparable store sales were up 5.6%, and there are plans to add 60 to 70 new stores to the list of 1,551 existing Canadian stores. 

“As anticipated, we are seeing a progressive normalization in comparable store sales, with growth primarily driven by persistent higher than historical demand for core consumables and other everyday essentials.”

– Neil Rossy, Dollarama CEO 

Despite the positive news, share prices dropped on the heel of news for an aggressive expansion under the Dollarcity subsidiary in Latin America. The $761.7 million investment grows Dollarama’s total equity from 50.1% to 60.1%. 

“We look forward to preparing for entry in Mexico in the near term, a large and dynamic market with untapped potential in the value retail space, guided by the same careful and disciplined approach as with our successful entries in Colombia in 2017 and in Peru in 2021.”

– Neil Rossy, Dollarama CEO 

Long-term Dollarama shareholders are probably quite happy despite the pullback, as the stock is up a scorching 26% year to date, and 42% over the last 12 months.

Read: “Dollarama earnings report and upcoming growth”

Stock splits for Nvidia and Canadian Natural Resources

If you were recently looking at the stock prices of Canada’s sixth largest company, Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ/TSX), and the world’s third largest company, Nvidia (NVDA/NASDAQ), you might be alarmed to see steep price declines. No need to panic; this is simply the result of stock splits. (Read: “What does Nvidia’s stock split mean for Canadian investors?”)

Early this week, CNQ executed a 2-for-1 stock split, and Nvidia executed a 10-for-1 stock split. (Broadcom also announced that it too would be undertaking a 10-for-1 stock split in the near future.)

“The Big Cut”

While The Big Short film is a riveting watch, “The Big Cut” may be even more enthralling. 

The Bank of Canada (BoC) made the decision to cut its key interest rate to 4.75% on Wednesday. It’s the first rate cut since March 2020. With about $700 million worth of mortgages coming up for renewal in Canada this year, “The Big Cut” is going to affect a lot of Canadians.

“We’ve come a long way in the fight against inflation. And our confidence that inflation will continue to move closer to the 2% target has increased over recent months.”

– BoC Governor Tiff Macklem 

Macklem also said: “Total consumer price index inflation has declined consistently over the course of this year, and indicators of underlying inflation increasingly point to a sustained easing.”

However, in the tradition of central bankers the world over, Macklem was also careful to speak using neutral language, pointing out that the BoC was going to take things “one meeting at a time.” He added “We don’t want monetary policy to be more restrictive than it needs to be to get inflation back to target. But if we lower our policy interest rate too quickly, we could jeopardize the progress we’ve made.”

While the BoC was the first G7 country to begin cutting interest rates, the European Central Bank followed suit on Thursday, cutting its key interest rate from 4% to 3.75%. Market experts are speculating that the BoC will cut interest rates three or four more times in 2024. (There are four announcements left on the BoC interest rate schedule).

The BoC (as well as many other central banks) have taken a lot of flak over the last couple of years. But if they manage to cut interest rates, get the economy growing again, and avoid resurgent interest rates, then they deserve a hand. Such a Goldilocks scenario would certainly qualify as a “soft landing” by most economists’ definitions.

If the BoC manages to slowly cut interest rates, while managing to get the economy growing again—all without supercharging inflation—that would certainly qualify as a “soft landing” by most economists’ definitions. 

Lululemon stops its share price slide, Nvidia skips past Apple

It was a relatively slow week for earnings news, but Canadian retailers Lululemon and the North West Company let investors know how they did last quarter. Note: Lululemon releases its earnings numbers in U.S. dollars, while the North West Company releases its earnings in CAD. You might remember the North West Company from your history textbooks, as the Winnipeg-based grocery chain is significantly older than Canada (1779 versus 1867).

Lulu shared a mostly positive earnings report and saw its share price rise 8% on Wednesday. This was welcome news for shareholders who have watched the stock go down over 36% year to date. Shares of the North West Company were flat the day after announcing earnings that were in line with expectations. (Read more about Lululemon’s earning report.)

Corporations, it seems, are just really, really good at making larger-than-ever profits. There are many reasons for fatter margins. It could be innovative new products and services, lower taxation, decreasing competition, willingness of consumers to pay higher prices, and so on. The bottom line is that the stock market will certainly pull back at some point (as it did this week). And there are solid reasons why companies are worth more now than they were, say, a few years ago.

Stagflation’s disappearing act

Back in spring/summer of 2022, all the “cool” writers were predicting a scary-sounding future of stagflation. We, on the other hand, were a bit more skeptical. We felt that these worst-case economic scenarios were just around the corner.

So, two years later, are we fearing unemployment rates may shoot through the roof? Are we fearing a shrinking GDP? (Gross domestic product, that is.)

Barry Ritholtz doesn’t think so. He’s the co-founder, chairman and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC, in New York City.

The above chart illustrates what economists call the “misery index.” It’s a rough approximation of measuring stagflation.

You’ll notice that while things weren’t exactly great in 2020 and 2022, they weren’t historically bad either. Last year was downright tame, and (spoiler alert!) we’re probably in for another not-so-miserable year for 2024.

Note, though, that this features American data. While Canada’s misery index isn’t quite as upbeat as the USA’s, Canada still sits below long-term averages.

Sure, the cost of living is up in for Canadians and Americans. But so are wages. And unemployment in the USA is at 60-year lows. While growth in Canada has been “anemic,” we haven’t experienced the deep recession folks were worried about over the last couple of years. Growth in the U.S. has been excellent. And inflation has steadily trended downward in both countries.

The massive hype behind Nvidia has resulted in a price-to-earnings ratio of over 55x. By comparison, tech giants Microsoft and Apple currently have ratios of 36x and 29x, respectively. Conventional logic says Nvidia’s growth has to fall back into line at some point—but this sustained period of record earnings is tough to argue with for the moment. Nvidia made 18% more money in Q1 2024 than it did in Q4 2023, and it made a whopping 262% more money than it did in Q1 2023.

To put this growth in perspective, Nvidia’s market capitalization has grown more than $1.1 trillion since Jan. 1, 2024. That’s bigger than the entire market capitalization of Canada’s 14 largest companies—and that’s just growth so far this year!

Founder and CEO Jensen Huang sounded appropriately upbeat in stating, “The next industrial revolution has begun—companies and countries are partnering with Nvidia … to produce a new commodity: artificial intelligence.”

Nvidia bought back $7.7 billion worth of its shares in Q1 and announced it was increasing its dividend from four cents to 10 cents per share (on a pre-split basis).

Frankly, I think it’s just a matter of time until competitors start to close the gap with Nvidia and some of those juicy profit margins start to shrink. That said, there is a whole lot of money to be made while that process plays out. Clearly, investors are willing to pay a premium for Nvidia’s future earnings.

Tough week for U.S. retail

Despite last week’s record good news for Walmart, the first quarter was not universally good for big American retailers. All figures below are in U.S. dollars.

All three of these retail heavy hitters cited a stretched consumer as the main reason for mediocre quarterly earnings reports. Target CEO Brian Cornell explained that low sales numbers reflected “continued soft trends in discretionary categories.” Compared to its rival Walmart, Target has substantially fewer customers coming into its stores to buy groceries, so the consumer shift to necessities appears to be hitting it harder.

Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison had similar thoughts on the current retail scene, saying, “Interest rates can go down, but you still need consumer confidence to come up.” Macy’s CFO and COO Adrian Mitchell went so far as to say that its team expects consumers “will remain under pressure for the balance of the year.”

Rainey went on to comment on the state of American consumers. While “wallets are still stretched,” it was also the case that “even the low-income consumer seems to be holding in there pretty well,” he said. He also added that shoppers were still coming to Walmart to buy necessities like food and health-related items, along with less general merchandise (such as home goods and electronics).

Going forward, Walmart is banking for growth on new revenue drivers, such as its subscription program, Walmart+. Global advertising grew 24% in Q1 and will be an interesting supplemental line of business for the company going forward—as it has been for retail rival Amazon. 

In less celebratory news, Walmart has plans to streamline its store offerings by shuttering Walmart health clinics in American locations.

Fellow big box-store titan Home Depot had a predictably-less stellar quarter than Walmart.

Given that consumers continue to cut back on home renovations after the massive COVID reno-boom, it stands to reason that Home Depot shareholders might be in for a bit of a sideways run for a while.

On Monday, the company revealed that while it was reporting its worst revenue miss in two decades, its bottom line was still holding up pretty well. Shares were mostly flat on the week.

Meme stock madness returns 

One post on X, formerly known as Twitter, is all it took to squeeze a billion dollars out of companies shorting GameStop this week.

pic.twitter.com/YgjVqtgcNS

— Roaring Kitty (@TheRoaringKitty) May 13, 2024

For those who haven’t watched Dumb Money or Eat The Rich (excellent airplane flicks btw), GameStop stock is the iconic “meme stock.”

What is a meme stock?

A meme stock is an equity that sees growth instigated by internet memes—usually not based on earnings or value. To sum it up: GameStop is a semi-dying company that appears unlikely to make a profit in the foreseeable future. Consequently, it doesn’t make a lot of sense (according to traditional investing metrics) to pay a high price for GameStop stock. However, speculative bets on where its price could move can quickly make investors money (or make them lose it) quite quickly. Investors who short sell GameStop’s stock are essentially betting that the price will continue to go down. If enough people buy shares of GameStop, those short bets against its share price can cost those investors a ton of money.

Buffett not “uncomfortable” with Canada

When countries look to attract the attention of big financial funds, they often attempt to brand themselves in a manner that will bring much-needed foreign investment to their shores. For example, you might see buzzwords such as:

• Innovative
• Efficient
• Attractive 
• Shareholder-friendly

But given Canada’s stagnating economy, I think it’s appropriate to get excited about this Warren Buffett quote:

“We do not feel uncomfortable in any shape or form putting our money into Canada.”

When Buffett takes the stage at his annual “Woodstock for capitalists” in Omaha each year, the investing world sits up to take notice. So, it was noteworthy to hear his lukewarm notes about Canada, including:

“There are a lot of countries we don’t understand at all. So, Canada, it’s terrific when you’ve got a major economy, not the size of the U.S., but a major economy that you feel confident about operating there. … Obviously, there aren’t as many big companies up there as there are in the United States. There are things we actually can do fairly well that Canada could benefit from Berkshire’s participation.”

He went on to reveal his company’s possible Canadian strategy, saying, “In fact, we’re actually looking at one thing now.” While most other investors are cool on Canadian stocks, it’s interesting to see Buffett warm (again).

Buffett’s last major foray into Canada generated a massive 70% gain in a single year back in 2017 when he invested in Home Capital Group, so he may know a thing or two about making money in the Great White North.

Other highlights from the annual general meeting included (all figures in U.S. dollars):

• Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/NYSE) is currently benefiting from high interest rates, as it sits on a massive cash hoard of $189 billion.

• Berkshire sold about $39 billion worth of Apple stock during the quarter. Berkshire remains Apple’s single biggest shareholder with over $135 billion still invested.
• In the absence of big deals, Berkshire continues to reward its shareholders by buying back its own shares to the tune of $2.6 billion for the quarter. When asked why he hadn’t used the cash to make big, flashy investments, Buffett responded, “I don’t think anyone sitting at this table has any idea how to use it effectively, and therefore we don’t use it. We only swing at pitches we like.”
• Berkshire’s operating profit rocketed up 39% on a year-over-year basis.
• Underwriting profits at Buffett’s insurance companies were up 185% year-over-year to $2.6 billion.
• Buffett told the audience that he had sold all of Berkshire’s remaining Paramount Global shares and was refreshingly honest in admitting, “It was 100% my decision, and we’ve sold it all and we lost quite a bit of money.”

Buffett wrapped up the annual meeting by saying humbly, “I not only hope you come next year, [but] I hope I come next year.” He later added, “I know a little about actuarial tables,” in reference to his insurance expertise.

This insight was made particularly relevant given the absence of long-time friend and partner Charlie Munger at this year’s event. Munger passed away at age 99 in November 2023.

Oil sands producers await TMX price bump

Diluted bitumen started flowing through the expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline on Wednesday (even at a brisk walking pace, it’ll take weeks to reach its destination). This is raising hopes that at last Canada’s oil sands producers will be able to narrow the discount paid by a now-larger cohort of refiners for their product. Meanwhile, two of the largest shippers on the pipeline reported first-quarter earnings sans that hoped-for revenue bump.

Cenovus output and profits both surprised on the upside, and the company further sweetened the pot by hiking its base dividend by 29% and announcing a variable dividend of 13.5¢ a share for this quarter. Production for the quarter exceeded 800,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. At the same time the company modestly reduced its overall debt level.

Results for Canadian Natural Resources  suffered from lower-than-expected production and realized prices, especially on the natural gas side. Output came in at 1.33 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Amazon, Apple still magnificent

Two more technology mega-caps reported first-quarter results this week, helping keep the Magnificent 7 bandwagon rolling.

Amazon reported continued strong demand for its Web Services, as corporate customers signed longer-term deals with bigger commitments. Generative artificial intelligence (AI) components added to the overall spend, the company said. Advertising revenue also enjoyed strong growth, although there are signs consumers are turning more cautious with retail spending. Following the earnings release, the stock rose 3% Wednesday morning. 

Amazon rival Walmart, meanwhile, opted to close 51 health clinics at U.S. stores and discontinue its virtual health services, the company announced Tuesday. It blamed high operating costs and “a challenging reimbursement environment” for poor profitability in the division first launched in 2020.

Apple’s revenues fell less than expected and earnings surpassed Wall Street estimates. The company also said it would boost its dividend to 25¢ a share and authorize $110 billion worth of share buybacks. Services revenue grew to nearly $24 billion, offsetting declines in sales of iPhones and other devices. Sales fell 8% in Greater China (including Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong), but that drop-off was not as severe as analysts anticipated. Apple shares surged nearly 6% before markets opened Friday, and more than a dozen analysts raised their target price on Apple.

Tipping on fast food

There’s no accounting for taste as fast-food purveyors moved in divergent ways in the first quarter; some were squeezed between cost inflation and consumer austerity while others continued to super-size their sales.