Former manager at a Fortune 100 financial services company, now living my dream creating fantasy and sports betting content about the NFL, NBA, and WNBA for ESPN.
Week 5 of the NFL season culminates with a Monday night matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders (8:15 ET, ESPN). Unfortunately, the weekend’s action came with a development that has huge fantasy football implications: Seattle Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny suffered a fractured fibula on Sunday. The injury will require surgery that will force Penny to miss the remainder of the season.
Before leaving the game in the third quarter, Penny had rushed for 54 yards on eight attempts. The tears in his eyes spoke louder than words as he was carted to the locker room. Penny was coming off an excellent performance in Week 4 against the Lions, in which he rushed 17 times for 151 yards and two touchdowns. However, injuries haven’t exactly been kind to Penny. Entering the season, he had played in only 37 out of a possible 65 games for his career.
Kenneth Walker III (47.5% rostered in ESPN leagues) should be able to fill the void. He finished out Week 5 with eight rushing attempts for a career-high 88 yards and a touchdown. Walker played in 32 collegiate games (20 at Wake Forest, 12 at Michigan State), finishing with 3,069 yards and 36 touchdowns between the two schools. Walker certainly becomes the top waiver-wire pickup for this week, immediately jumping into the RB2 conversation.
If somebody else had already snatched up Walker, either as an insurance policy for Penny or simply as a bench stash, here are a few other RB options to consider grabbing:
Mike Boone, Denver Broncos (26.9%): On Thursday night, Boone finished with 85 total yards on 10 touches against the Colts. There was no doubt that Melvin Gordon III led the Broncos’ committee with 103 total yards and 18 touches. Boone, however, played on 30 snaps, compared to Gordon’s 41. With reports that QB Russell Wilson is battling a partially torn lat near his right shoulder, the Broncos could be forced to rely even more on the running game in the future.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (3.9%):Najee Harris, who was the RB5 in ESPN live drafts this summer, has been a disappointment this season. Harris has averaged just 16.4 touches and a dismal 10.3 fantasy points per game. Warren, on the other hand, played on 38 snaps against the Bills — one more than Harris, who was the only starter to be taken out of the game during the fourth quarter, even with the game against Buffalo no longer in reach. Harris dealt with a Lisfranc injury in training camp and a foot injury to start the season. He’s averaging a suboptimal 3.2 yards per rushing attempt. Fantasy managers should stash Warren now.
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Liz Loza, Mike Clay and Daniel Dopp all don’t expect Najee Harris’ numbers to get better moving forward.
Eno Benjamin, Arizona Cardinals (6.8%): Benjamin was the “last back standing” on Sunday after James Conner (rib), Darrel Williams (knee) and Jonathan Ward (hamstring) all suffered injuries. He finished with 53 total yards and a touchdown on 11 touches against the Eagles. Benjamin has accumulated only 82 career touches, as he plays in just his second NFL season, but his success in college says he’s capable of more. If both Conner and Williams remain sidelined, Benjamin would be on the RB2 radar against the Seahawks.
Quick hits:J.D. McKissic (41.7%) provides fantasy managers with a high floor. He has averaged 8.2 touches and 10.0 fantasy points per game. With the start of bye weeks having arrived, McKissic could find himself in your starting lineup. … Atlanta’s backfield is crowded, but Tyler Allgeier (45.0%) still led the way in snaps (39), routes run (19) and touches (13).
Now let’s take a look at our recommended Week 6 ESPN Fantasy waiver-wire adds at the other skill positions.
Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders (47.7%): Starting Wentz as your fantasy quarterback can make your stomach as queasy as eating sushi that you bought at a gas station. In three of his five games, he has scored 21-plus fantasy points. In the other two games, Wentz combined for only 16 fantasy points. Only the Jets (42.8) and Cardinals (43.8) average more passing attempts per game than the Commanders (42). Still, Wentz is a QB2 option for fantasy managers thanks to upcoming games against the Bears and Packers.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (32.2%): So far this season, Smith has way exceeded expectations, averaging 31.4 passing attempts and 19.6 fantasy points per game. He’s now had three consecutive games with multiple passing touchdowns — the longest streak of Smith’s career. Smith and the Seahawks’ offense will need to cook a lot, since the Seattle defense is giving up 430.0 yards and 30.8 points per game.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (27.0%): It’s safe to say that the Bears’ offense hasn’t exceeded expectations so far this season, ranking 31st overall with only 274.0 total yards per game. Against the Vikings on Sunday, Fields set a season high in passing yards (208) and fantasy points (17.0) while avoiding any turnovers. Additionally, he has now rushed for 45-plus yards in three consecutive games. In this week’s matchup against the Commanders, Fields is on the streaming radar. Looking ahead, in Weeks 9-11 he will face the Dolphins, Lions and Falcons. That’s something to be aware of if you are planning for upcoming bye weeks.
Wide receivers
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys (51.0%): QB Dak Prescott is expected to return from thumb surgery in a couple of weeks, so Gallup could see a boost in both offensive snaps and fantasy production. Gallup played on 55% of the snaps and had five targets against the Rams, compared to Noah Brown, who played on 76% but saw just two targets. As a reminder, in his 31 career games with six-plus targets, Gallup has averaged 69.2 receiving yards and 14.0 fantasy points.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (50.6%): Pickens followed up his breakout performance in Week 4 with another superb outing against the Bills on Sunday. He played on 57 snaps and ran 48 routes. Yes, Diontae Johnson (70) and Chase Claypool (68) both played on more snaps, but they each ran a similar number of routes (52). For the second consecutive week, it was the rookie who led the Steelers in receptions and receiving yards. There’s no doubt that Pickens’ skill set is incredible and needs to be the focus of Pittsburgh’s passing game. Pickens has flex upside going forward.
Isaiah McKenzie, Buffalo Bills (26.3%): McKenzie didn’t play on Sunday because of a concussion, but it’s likely he’ll return against the Chiefs in Week 6. With Jamison Crowder (ankle) on IR, McKenzie will play a significant role in the Bills’ offense. Josh Allen‘s performance on Sunday against the Steelers reminded fantasy managers how lethal Buffalo’s offense can be. It was his second career game with at least 400 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. For the upcoming bye weeks, McKenzie is a great player to stash. He accumulated 15 targets over Weeks 3-4 and has found the end zone in three of his four games this season.
Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals (19.6%): Moore played a much bigger role on Sunday, catching 7 of 8 targets for 68 yards. Moore played on more snaps and ran more routes against the Eagles than did A.J. Green. It certainly looks like Moore appears to be no worse than the No. 3 option in the passing game, after Marquise Brown and Zach Ertz. Now, DeAndre Hopkins can return in Week 7, which may ultimately reduce Moore’s target share, but the Cardinals’ pass-heavy offense still positions Moore for fantasy relevancy. For Week 6, a meeting with the Seahawks presents a favorable matchup.
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Liz Loza breaks down why she likes Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore’s fantasy matchup vs. the Seahawks in Week 6.
Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts (8.6%): Pierce was the lone bright spot on the Colts’ offense Thursday. He set career highs with eight receptions (on nine targets) and 81 yards. He appears to have great rapport with QB Matt Ryan. Pierce is on the flex radar against the Jaguars in Week 6. I think it’s only a matter of time before he takes over as a starter in 2-WR sets.
Quick hits:Darius Slayton (0.2%) led the Giants with 79 receiving yards against the Packers. New York was without Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay and Wan’Dale Robinson. The role Slayton plays in the offense when the team is fully healthy remains to be seen, which makes him only a deep-league target. … Dyami Brown (0.2%) caught 2 of 4 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans in place of Jahan Dotson. If Dotson is out again, Brown is a nice pickup in deeper leagues. … Nico Collins (11.9%) is also someone to keep on your radar in deeper formats. He led the Texans with 65 receiving yards on Sunday.
Tight ends
Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings (32.1%): Smith was third on the Vikings behind Justin Jefferson (13) and Adam Thielen (6) in targets on Sunday, helping him post a season high in receiving yards (42). Given how many routes Smith typically runs (23.2 per game), he’s on the verge of a monster fantasy performance.
Hayden Hurst, Cincinnati Bengals (24.2%): In three of Hurst’s five games this season, he has been targeted seven-plus times. He’s averaging 9.5 fantasy points per game. He’s also scored a touchdown in two straight weeks, making him a great choice if you’re looking for a TE streamer in Week 6 against the Saints.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars (20.2%): On Sunday, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense struggled against the Texans. Engram did not. He caught 6 of 10 targets for 69 yards. In the two games this season in which he had eight-plus targets, he scored at least 11 fantasy points. One of those games was against the Colts, whom the Jaguars will face again in Week 6.
Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints (11.8%): Hill is now the TE4 for the season after becoming only the third player since 1970 to have 100 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns and a passing touchdown in the same game. Hill was started in only 3.3% of ESPN leagues, which is not that surprising. Due to his inconsistent usage, Hill is difficult to routinely insert into starting lineups. However, since Chris Olave had to leave Sunday’s game because of a concussion, Hill might get some extra opportunities against the Bengals this week.
The late afternoon window saw the Philadelphia Eagles remain undefeated, as they got past the Arizona Cardinals to move to 5-0. That sets up a Sunday night showdown next week with the Dallas Cowboys, who used a relentless pass rush to beat the Los Angeles Rams and move to 4-1.
Our NFL Nation reporters react with the biggest takeaways and lingering questions coming out of this week’s matchups and look ahead to what’s next. Let’s get to it.
What to know: When all else fails, have quarterback Jalen Hurts take it into his own hands. He rushed for a pair of touchdowns Sunday, passing Cam Newton for most rushing TDs for a quarterback in his first 25 starts with 19. On the go-ahead drive late in the fourth quarter, Hurts converted a pair of third-down QB sneaks to extend the drive, helping Philly sneak past Arizona to remain undefeated.
Will the offensive line injuries become a major factor? The Eagles entered this game without left tackle Jordan Mailata (shoulder), and lost left guard Landon Dickerson (leg) and center Jason Kelce (ankle) for parts of the game before they eventually returned. Right guard Isaac Seumalo, meanwhile, was limited this week with an ankle injury. The offensive line is a primary strength of this team and the Eagles need it healthy, especially for next week’s game against the Cowboys and their vaunted pass rush. — Tim McManus
Next game: vs. Cowboys (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Cardinals
What to know: The Cardinals took a significant step to figuring out their first-quarter offensive woes. Even though they didn’t score in the first quarter for the sixth straight game — which includes all five this season — Arizona showed glimpses of its up-tempo offense, which helped change the pace of the game and kept Philadelphia on its heels a bit. It was enough for the Cardinals to stay in a game many didn’t think they had any business being in — and showed that any production in the first quarter could’ve been the difference on Sunday.
Can the Cardinals put together a complete game next week in Seattle? All signs are pointing to “it’s likely.” This year’s Seahawks aren’t the Seahawks of old, so a first-quarter score is most likely to happen in Seattle. The Cardinals are a few plays here and there away from that complete showing. It may have taken them a month to figure themselves out, but they’re on the verge of showing who they are for an entire game. — Josh Weinfuss
Next game: at Seahawks (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Cowboys
What to know: How good are the Cowboys? In the last month, they have beaten the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals and beat the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. They also beat the New York Giants, who just knocked off the Green Bay Packers. This wasn’t supposed to happen, especially without Dak Prescott. The Cowboys’ defense continued to lead the way, allowing just one touchdown in the fifth straight game and stifling Matthew Stafford all day. They did just enough on offense, highlighted by Tony Pollard‘s 57-yard touchdown run in the second quarter after the Rams took the lead.
How big is next week’s game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles? The Eagles are the NFL’s lone undefeated team and are considered by many the class of the NFC East. The Cowboys have won eight straight division games, including two wins vs. the Eagles a year ago by a combined 45 points — though Philadelphia rested its regulars in the second meeting. The Cowboys have won four straight games without Prescott (thumb) and are likely to be without him again. With a win against the Eagles, maybe folks will take them seriously. — Todd Archer
Next game: at Eagles (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Rams
What to know: It’s easier said than done with several injuries, but fixing the pressure Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is facing will be a key to turning this season around. It felt like Stafford faced constant pressure in Sunday’s loss to the Cowboys and it started from the Rams’ first drive, when Stafford was sacked and fumbled, which the Cowboys returned for a touchdown to set the tone for the rest of the game. Stafford was sacked five times (now up to 21 times this season) and the Cowboys had 11 quarterback hits.
How long can the Rams’ defense keep this up? Although the Rams lost to the Cowboys, nine of Dallas’ 22 points came off turnovers. Los Angeles held Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush to 10 completions and 102 yards. Of course, this team has been beaten by Jimmy Garoppolo and Rush in its last two games, but the defense has been a bright spot on this 2-3 team. The Rams get quarterback Baker Mayfield and a struggling Carolina Panthers team next week. — Sarah Barshop
Next game: vs. Panthers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
49ers
What to know: The 49ers took care of business against an inferior opponent, but they might have suffered a much bigger loss Sunday. Early in the third quarter, defensive end Nick Bosa was ruled out with a groin injury. The Niners have already lost multiple key players to injury this season, but there might not be a more important player on the roster than Bosa. The league’s leader in sacks and pressures entering the game, Bosa is the driving force behind one of the NFL’s best defenses. That defense’s depth has already been tested, but if Bosa has to miss extended time, the challenge will become far greater as the Niners head to West Virginia for practice before next week’s game against the Atlanta Falcons.
What’s wrong with the 49ers kicking game? The Niners special teams have been mostly good through the first month-plus of the season with one notable exception: The kicking game. Kicker Robbie Gould had a field goal blocked for the second time this season Sunday (tied for the most in a season in his career), left the game with a left knee injury and the 49ers yielded kickoff returns of 48 and 45 yards to Carolina. Given San Francisco’s myriad of injury issues, those yards and points will matter plenty as the competition increases. — Nick Wagoner
Next game: at Falcons (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Panthers
What to know: Third down continued to haunt the Panthers, only this time it was on both sides of the ball. The offense entered Sunday last in the NFL with a 25.5% conversion rate and finished 3 for 15 (20%). The last team to convert less than 25% for a season was the 2005 49ers, who went 4-12. That discrepancy was magnified by the 49ers’ third down success, as the Niners converted seven of their first 11 third downs. Outside of Baker Mayfield‘s pick-six, that was the difference in game.
What will it take for coach Matt Rhule to bench Mayfield? The Panthers traded for Mayfield believing he could help turn around the organization. He hasn’t, and Sunday’s pick-six was yet another example of how he hurts the offense. Replacing Mayfield as the starter with former XFL star PJ Walker — who played the last couple of minutes of the game in relief — would send the message that the 2018 No. 1 pick is done. It likely would destroy Mayfield’s confidence, too. Now if Mayfield and the league’s 32nd-ranked offense continue to struggle, the team could make a change when Sam Darnold (ankle) returns from injured reserve. But according to team sources, that’s probably two to four weeks away. By then, if the losing continues, coach Matt Rhule may be done. — David Newton
Next game: at Rams (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bills
What to know: The Bills had control of the game from the third play to the end, thanks in large part to quarterback Josh Allen and the big-play passing attack. Allen threw for 348 yards in the first half, the most passing yards in a single half in Bills history, per the Elias Sports Bureau, to help establish a 28-point lead, and finished with a franchise high for a regulation game with 424 passing yards. Despite being without multiple starters on both sides of the ball due to injury, the Bills held the Steelers scoreless after the first drive and came away with a commanding win.
Can the Bills keep up the big-play passing? The Bills came into Week 5 with 13 passing plays of 20-plus yards this season, but against the Steelers, big plays made all the difference. Buffalo had eight passing plays of 20-plus yards Sunday, and Allen finished the game with a career-high 13.7 yards per attempt. In the previous two games, the Bills strung together long drives, only to fall short in the red zone. Targeting wide receiver Gabe Davis deep more often — Davis finished with a career-high 171 receiving yards on three receptions — and learning from what worked against the Steelers will go a long way. — Alaina Getzenberg
Next game: at Chiefs (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Steelers
What to know: A 38-3 blowout by the Bills exposed the deep cracks that riddle the Steelers’ foundation. Pickett did what was asked of him in his first career start, but an already short-handed and inconsistent defense couldn’t contain quarterback Josh Allen and his weapons. Pickett completed 34 of 52 passes for 327 yards with one interception, but the offense came away with only three points. Meanwhile, Allen picked apart the Steelers’ secondary with a career game. The NFL’s highest-paid defense came into the game missing two defensive starters in addition to T.J. Watt, and three more were ruled out during the game after sustaining injuries. Sunday was supposed to be about Pickett’s first start, but failures in every phase of the game made his play irrelevant. The 35-point margin of defeat is the worst for the Steelers since a 51-0 loss to Cleveland on Sept. 10, 1989.
Where do the Steelers go from here? It’s only Week 5, but at 1-4, the Steelers seem destined to give Mike Tomlin his first losing season. With games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles on the slate before the bye, the Steelers face the very real possibility of starting the season 1-7 — something that hasn’t happened in Pittsburgh since 1969. The Steelers don’t believe in rebuilding years, but that’s exactly how this one is playing out.
So what does it mean? Could the Steelers choose to rest players like Watt, who’s recovering from a torn pectoral and arthroscopic knee surgery, for the rest of the season, while allowing Pickett to learn on the job for a basement team? Could they buck organizational precedent and make coordinator changes in-season? Could they start a fire sale of their limited assets to acquire more picks for the upcoming drafts in an effort to completely rebuild the team? Or will they ignore the noise, as Tomlin urged his team to do after a Week 3 loss to the Cleveland Browns, and keep doing what they’re doing? — Brooke Pryor
Next game: vs. Buccaneers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Texans
What to know: The Texans’ defense carried them to the win. The Jaguars were sixth in points scored per game (26.3), but the Texans became the first team to hold them under 21 points. It started by limiting Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence and intercepting him twice for a passer rating of 65. Texans rookie cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. got his first career interception, and cornerback Desmond King II finished the game off with an interception. Lawrence was consistently under duress as the Texans’ pass rush was able to pressure him 14 times.
Is Dameon Pierce the leader for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award? Pierce carried the Texans’ offense against the Jaguars as he rushed for 99 yards and the game-winning touchdown. He rushed for 31 yards on 10 carries in the fourth quarter. Pierce came into the game at No. 10 in rushing yards, and he is now averaging 4.8 yards per carry and has three rushing touchdowns. — DJ Bien-Aime
Next game: at Raiders (Sunday, Oct. 23, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Jaguars
What to know: Quarterback Trevor Lawrence played his second bad game in a row, and now the Jaguars have a problem: Which Lawrence are they going to get each week? It’s troubling that most of Lawrence’s mistakes the past two games (as well as Week 1) were unforced — including an inexcusable interception in the end zone early in the second half Sunday before another one to end the game. Not knowing what you’re going to get from your quarterback each week makes it hard to be confident and make adjustments when things start to go wrong.
What happened to the turnovers? The Jaguars forced eight in the first three weeks — one shy of their 2021 total — but have just one in the past two games. Some of those are the bounce of the ball one way instead of another, but it seemed like getting turnovers was the defense’s identity. This might be just a lull, but the Jaguars need to get things going on the takeaway front again because the offense could benefit from a few short fields. — Mike DiRocco
Next game: at Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Titans
What to know: The injuries along the offensive line are testing the Titans’ depth. Already down Taylor Lewan for the year, starting right guard Nate Davis was inactive because of a knee injury. The Commanders’ front dominated the line of scrimmage and constantly pressured Ryan Tannehill. Left tackle Dennis Daley had his first bad game, as he struggled with Montez Sweat. Aaron Brewer gave up a sack along with Dillon Radunz, who was filling in for Davis at right guard. Washington sacked Tannehill five times. The pressure the Commanders were getting limited what the Titans could do with their playcalling.
How worried should the Titans be about the secondary? Another week, and another quarterback passes for 300-plus yards, as Carson Wentz‘s 359 passing yards almost beat them Sunday. Dyami Brown‘s 75-yard touchdown reception with Caleb Farley in coverage was the sixth play of 40 yards or more the Titans have allowed this season. Five of those have come via the pass. Brown also caught a 30-yard touchdown pass against Roger McCreary. Although the Titans won, the big plays continue to be a major issue. Tennessee’s secondary has three high draft picks (Farley, McCreary and Kristian Fulton). There’s no reason for that group to struggle this much. — Turron Davenport
Next game: vs. Colts (Sunday, Oct. 23, 1 p.m. ET)
Commanders
What to know: Washington no longer can ask for patience. At 1-4 in Year 3 of Ron Rivera’s regime, the Commanders have not taken the step they — or their fans — had hoped. Carson Wentz threw for 359 yards and two touchdowns, but a possible game-winning drive ended in an interception. They lack consistency. They struggle to create better situations for the run game or play-action. And the defense still surrenders big plays and doesn’t force turnovers. The offensive line is banged up but makes too many mistakes — penalties and on assignments — to play consistently.
Is the season already lost? Technically, there’s still time for Washington to turn its season around. But the Commanders already have dug a steep hole in the NFC East. While other teams have survived injuries, Washington has not shown that it can. So, if they can get healthy, the Commanders could very well play better in a few weeks. But by then, they could be too far back to seriously challenge for a playoff spot. They need to provide reasons to believe it’ll get better, and they haven’t. Ron Rivera’s teams typically play better in the second half of the year, but this was a season in which the Commanders needed to play better in the first half. — John Keim
Next game: at Bears (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Chargers
What to know: Coach Brandon Staley rolled the dice, and it almost backfired on him. Up 30-28 with 1:14 left, Staley went for it on fourth-and-1 from his own 46-yard line. An incompletion handed Cleveland the chance for a game-winning field goal try, but the Browns missed. This is who Staley is and who the Chargers are. And ESPN’s win-probability model favored the decision (84.1% to 78.9%).
Can the Chargers keep running the ball? The Chargers came into the weekend ranked 25th in rushing. But against the Browns, L.A. finally got its ground game going, exploding for 238 yards. That production took pressure off QB Justin Herbert and allowed the Chargers to keep their defense off the field. If the Chargers can keep running the ball with Austin Ekeler & Co. going forward, they will be that much tougher to defend. — Jake Trotter
Next game: vs. Broncos (Monday, Oct. 17, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Browns
What to know: Browns QB Jacoby Brissett spoiled what otherwise was a terrific performance with a costly late interception. On the heels of a key first-down scramble, Brissett had the opportunity to potentially take the ball in for a touchdown. Instead, he fired a pick trying to find Amari Cooper. Cleveland got another shot to win, but missed a 54-yard field goal. All three of Brissett’s interceptions this season have come in the final three minutes of the fourth quarter.
What has happened to kicker Cade York? York drilled a 58-yard, game-winning field goal in Cleveland’s opener and first career appearance. The fourth-round pick has struggled ever since. He missed two costly field goals again Sunday, including the game-winning try at the end. The Browns have little margin for error without Deshaun Watson and with the way their defense is playing. York’s accuracy issues represent another concerning development. — Jake Trotter
Next game: vs. Patriots (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
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Cade York misses a potential go-ahead 54-yard field goal kick just to the right for the Browns.
Saints
What to know: It was Taysom Time for the Saints again, as Taysom Hill essentially became their entire offense Sunday, rushing for 112 yards and joining Archie Manning (1977 vs. Bears) as the only players in Saints franchise history with three rushing touchdowns and a touchdown pass in the same game. The Saints finally seemed to figure out their offensive roles with a mix of Hill and Andy Dalton.
How do the Saints sustain positive offensive momentum going forward? The Saints have been one step forward, two steps back all season. Now they’ve got to figure out a way to keep the offensive momentum going, whether that’s keeping Dalton at QB, continuing to utilize Hill in all areas or figuring out how to get Michael Thomas back in the lineup as a healthy receiver. That means there will continue to be questions as to whether an injured Jameis Winston should return to the lineup or if they should stick with Dalton. — Katherine Terrell
Next game: vs. Bengals (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Seahawks
What to know: The Seahawks’ defense remains a disaster, and this time, a strong day from Geno Smith and their offense wasn’t enough to overcome it. A week after allowing 45 points in a win over Detroit, they were just as bad against the Saints, with no answers for Taysom Hill or Alvin Kamara. They allowed both to top 100 rushing yards, with Hill rushing for three touchdowns despite the fact that there was little mystery as to what the Saints were going to do when he lined up at quarterback. It’s the second straight week in which Seattle’s defense has gotten gashed by a team missing key pieces on offense, as the Saints were without their starting quarterback (Jameis Winston) and No. 1 receiver (Michael Thomas). The Seahawks have pulled off defensive turnarounds in each of the past two seasons after similarly poor starts, but there’s no end in sight to this one.
Is Kenneth Walker III ready to handle the load at running back? Walker will have to step up if Rashaad Penny‘s injury is as serious as it looks. Penny went down in the second half after hurting an ankle, hanging his head on the sideline before being carted to the locker room. Walker, Seattle’s rookie second-round pick, was off to a quiet start to this NFL career before he broke off a 69-yard touchdown run Sunday. He missed the opener after a hernia procedure and didn’t seem to have a full handle on the playbook, based on the multiple times he went the wrong way on a running play. If Penny has to miss time, Walker will need to speed up his learning curve. — Brady Henderson
Next game: vs. Cardinals (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
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Taysom Hill gets his third rushing touchdown of the game and gives the Saints a lead in the fourth quarter.
Buccaneers
What to know: This was a sloppy victory. The Bucs allowed the Falcons to score twice in the fourth quarter and nearly gave the game away. And once again, they gave up big plays on the ground (61 of the Falcons’ 151 rushing yards came from quarterback Marcus Mariota). But Tampa Bay did a better job controlling the line of scrimmage: The defense had five sacks, and running back Leonard Fournette notched 139 yards from scrimmage with two touchdowns behind the offensive line’s blocking. His 10 catches for 83 receiving yards were both career highs. The Bucs need to put four quarters together consistently, though, and they haven’t really done that all season.
What should the Bucs do with receiver Julio Jones? Jones was inactive for the third time in five games Sunday with a knee injury after he left two plays into the second half last week after aggravating it. He was able to practice on a limited basis this week, but it was determined that he was unable to go during warm-ups Sunday. It’s unclear whether he’ll play against the Steelers next week, and it appears they will need to monitor his reps if they want to keep him for the season. It isn’t ideal to have a player making $6 million sitting on the bench, but the Buccaneers didn’t sign Jones for the regular season — they signed him for December and January, in hopes of avoiding a repeat of last year when they had no healthy receivers. If they can shelve him over the next few weeks and let him get healthy, while continuing to get Scotty Miller and Jaelon Darden more involved, they’ll be better off when they truly need him for their playoff push. — Jenna Laine
Next game: at Steelers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Falcons
What to know: The Falcons entered Sunday without tight end Kyle Pitts or running back Cordarrelle Patterson, so maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Atlanta offense struggled Sunday. Still, it became clear just how big an issue it might be to their offense without those two playmakers. Tampa Bay’s defense is legitimate, but without either Pitts or Patterson, moving the ball and putting up points could be difficult. Atlanta did find decent work with Avery Williams at running back and Olamide Zaccheaus as a complement to Drake London at receiver, but it doesn’t seem to be enough.
How do the Falcons figure out the running game going forward? In its first game without Patterson, Atlanta gave Tyler Allgeier 13 carries, Caleb Huntley eight carries and Williams three carries. That type of workload might be what this looks like over the next few weeks, too. However, none of the backs made much of a statement, and if Atlanta is able to bring back veteran Damien Williams off injured reserve — he’s eligible to return next week — it should consider it. The Falcons are probably looking at a true running-back-by-committee situation for at least the rest of October. — Michael Rothstein
Next game: vs. 49ers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Vikings
What to know: If nothing else this season, the Vikings have seen quarterback Kirk Cousins emerge as a late-game surgeon. He has made key plays and throws in the fourth quarter in each of the Vikings’ past three games, all victories. Sunday, Cousins converted two third-downs on the ground during their final possession, including a 1-yard sneak for the winning touchdown. That came after he had completed his first 17 passes of the game, a team record. Cousins’ play can still be spotty at times, but he is perhaps the key reason the Vikings are 4-1 and alone atop the NFC North.
How did this game become such a slog? The Vikings scored touchdowns on their first three possessions, were leading 21-3 midway through the second quarter and still needed a late drive to win the game. The easiest answer here is that they remain a work in progress as the conversion to new offensive and defensive schemes is underway. They’re finding ways to win despite dips of concentration and intensity, and from this vantage point, it bodes well for their future success once they grow more efficient in running their schemes. — Kevin Seifert
Next game: at Dolphins (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Bears
What to know: After allowing Kirk Cousins to complete his first 17 attempts while running only 18 offensive plays of their own in the first half, Chicago got aggressive in the second half and scored 19 unanswered points to take a 22-21 fourth-quarter lead. Justin Fields orchestrated his best drive of the season to start the third quarter. The drive ended with rookie Velus Jones scoring his first career touchdown. Bears coach Matt Eberflus didn’t take his foot off the gas in the second half. It didn’t always work — Chicago failed on its 2-point attempt after Jones’ 9-yard TD — but this team found an edge with its resilience and ability to adjust. Fields and the offense had a chance to win the game when they got the ball back with 2:26 remaining down 29-22, but Bears receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette (a former Viking) had a costly turnover that ended up sealing the loss.
Is Justin Fields turning the corner? The Bears quarterback said he felt like the passing game was starting to click against the Giants in Week 4. After a rough start in Minnesota, Fields went 12-of-13 for 135 yards and a touchdown in the second half and added five rushes for 36 yards. And his 52-yard touchdown run would have been the biggest highlight all day if it wasn’t nullified by an illegal block in the back penalty on Smith-Marsette. Fields finished with 208 yards passing and a 118.8 passer rating. This game could be a sign the quarterback is turning the corner after a rough first month of the season. — Courtney Cronin
Next game: vs. Commanders (Thursday, Oct. 13, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Jets
What to know: For months, coach Robert Saleh has been stressing to his players the importance of closing the gap in the AFC East. One game doesn’t make up for years of ineptitude, but the Jets took a step in the right direction, snapping a 12-game division losing streak. The Jets (3-2) showed they can play with a lead from beginning to end, something they hadn’t done since Week 15 of the 2020 season — a league-high 23 straight games without a wire-to-wire win. It’s an important step for a young team. The Jets proved they can come from behind, as they did in two earlier wins, but it takes a different mentality to play from ahead. And, yes, it helped that the Dolphins had to play rookie third-string QB Skylar Thompson for virtually the entire game after losing Teddy Bridgewater.
How far can the Breece Hall–Michael Carter backfield tandem take the Jets? It’s too early to talk about playoffs, but the Jets have a terrific one-two punch in Hall and Carter. It allows them to run a balanced offense, something they failed to do in the first month. Hall, who might be their best draft pick in a long time, became the first Jets rookie in history with 100 receiving yards and a rushing TD in the same game. He finished with 197 yards from scrimmage (97 rushing), a tremendous display of his many talents. The Jets used Hall and Carter (two TDs) at the same time more than in any previous game — a nice wrinkle. — Rich Cimini
Next game: at Packers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Dolphins
What to know: The Dolphins were the first team to experience the NFL’s amended concussion protocol. Dolphins fans might argue their team was actually the first “victim” of the new rules, which added “ataxia” to the protocol as a “no-go” symptom. Teddy Bridgewater, in his first start filling in for the concussed Tua Tagovailoa, was placed into concussion protocol after playing just a single offensive snap. He passed his evaluation and was not diagnosed with a concussion, but a booth spotter believed he saw Bridgewater stumble, which triggered the new ataxia clause and forced him out for the remainder of the game. Rookie Skylar Thompson started strong but showed his youth during the fourth quarter, holding on to the ball for too long and eventually unraveling on a strip sack that helped the Jets put the game out of reach. The NFL pledged to use an “abundance of caution” in its amended protocol — sometimes that means players who are not concussed will be placed in the protocol. Dolphins fans won’t like it, and understandably so, but it’s better than allowing potentially concussed players to reenter a game.
Who will start at quarterback next week? Both Bridgewater and Tagovailoa are in concussion protocol entering Week 6, but the former should be cleared in time for Sunday’s game against the Vikings, considering he was not diagnosed with a concussion. But if Tagovailoa clears protocol, is 17 days long enough for the Dolphins to be comfortable playing him, or will they take an even more cautious approach to his return? Either way, Thompson needs to process plays more quickly before he proves to be a capable starter; entering a game with Thompson and Reid Sinnett at quarterback is not ideal. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Next game: vs. Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
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Quinnen Williams picks up the fumble and gets a huge stiff-arm on Tyreek Hill. Breece Hall would capitalize with a short touchdown run.
Patriots
What to know: Defense delivers. With 2022 fourth-round pick Bailey Zappe making his first career start at quarterback after injuries to Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer, the Patriots supported him with a stifling defensive performance against a Lions offense that entered the day as the NFL’s top-rated unit in terms of points scored. Six (!) stops on fourth down, another interception by rookie cornerback Jack Jones and a strip sack by Matthew Judon that was returned 59 yards for a TD by Kyle Dugger provided Zappe plenty of breathing room. It resulted in the Patriots’ first home shutout since 2016, when then-rookie Jacoby Brissett made his first NFL start. While Zappe wasn’t asked to do too much, he was poised and played smart football (17-of-21 passing for 188 yards with a touchdown and an interception) in an overall job well done.
When will Mac Jones be ready to return? The Patriots have shown they can win with Zappe, but Jones’ eventual return still provides them the most long-term upside. Jones was a limited participant in practices last week and was still limping a bit. Zappe’s capable performance buys the Patriots more time for Jones to return as close to full health as possible, but at 2-3, their margin for error is still thin to keep pace in the AFC. — Mike Reiss
Next game: at Browns (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Lions
What to know: Detroit entered Gillette Stadium as the league’s top-ranked offense but struggled mightily. Quarterback Jared Goff couldn’t get anything going against New England’s defense. The lackluster effort started in the opening half, when the Lions failed to score after having scored a touchdown in 12 straight halves — which was the NFL’s longest streak. The Lions also failed to convert six fourth downs Sunday, many of which came in Patriots territory. Running back D’Andre Swift (shoulder/ankle) didn’t suit up for the second straight game but is expected to return after the bye week, which they hope can give them a boost.
How much is head coach Dan Campbell at fault for Detroit’s 1-4 start? There’s no denying that Campbell’s charisma and authenticity has been a hit with players and fans. However, this isn’t the first time that he’s made questionable decisions in key moments, which included going for it on fourth-and-9 instead of attempting a second quarter, 49-yard field goal, which resulted in a scoop-and-score after Goff fumbled while being sacked by Patriots linebacker Matthew Judon. Campbell and his staff have repeatedly accepted the blame for these questionable coaching decisions, but they definitely have affected the Lions’ poor start to the season. He holds just as much accountability as the players, and they have to fix some things after the bye week if they want to at least be respectable in the final 12 regular-season games. — Eric Woodyard
Next game: at Cowboys (Sunday, Oct. 23, 1 p.m. ET)
Giants
What to know:Daniel Jones and the Giants really showed something. They rallied from down 14 in the first half against the Packers to post a huge upset victory, perhaps their best win since beating the Cowboys late in 2016. Jones did it while clearly not 100 percent (ankle) and despite a questionable supporting cast. If anything, it put his toughness on full display. Jones went 13-of-14 passing for 136 yards in the second half. He also rushed seven times for 37 yards, before kneeling with the ball late. Jones carried a Giants offense that had Marcus Johnson, Richie James, David Sills V and Darius Slayton at wide receiver. A monster effort.
How did star RB Saquon Barkley come out of the game? The Giants’ offense revolves around Barkley. He accounted for 43% of their total offense coming into the game and said this week he’s “good with whatever [workload] they throw at me.” But after New York went to Barkley early and often, he left Sunday’s contest in the third quarter with a shoulder injury. He went to the locker room before returning to score the game-winning TD out of the Wildcat midway through the fourth. Everyone will be watching how Barkley feels this week given his importance to this offense. — Jordan Raanan
Next game: vs. Ravens (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Packers
What to know: At some point, the Packers are going to have to find a deep threat — whether he’s on their team right now or not. Either that or they should forget about trying and just run the ball more, because Aaron Rodgers was just chucking and hoping on Sunday. He tried to go deep to Allen Lazard several times and couldn’t connect. He tried Romeo Doubs and missed him. He tried Randall Cobb, who had a nice game (seven catches for 99 yards), but Cobb has never been a consistent deep threat. Rodgers was 0-of-5 on attempts of 20 or more yards in the air, including 0-of-4 in the second half, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
What’s happened to the Packers’ defense? Green Bay almost lost to Bailey Zappe last week. Daniel Jones got the Packers this week. The Giants played without their top-three receivers, and it didn’t matter. All the talk in the offseason was how the Packers have one of their best defenses in recent years. Yet they still managed to leave players open, miss tackles and commit costly penalties. It started in Week 1 when they let Justin Jefferson destroy that, and it hasn’t gotten much better — if at all. The Giants scored on five straight drives after opening the game with consecutive three-and-outs. — Rob Demovsky
Next game: vs. Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
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Adam Schefter breaks down Russell Wilson’s injury and when he is expected to return.
Thursday
Colts
What to know: The Colts’ defense is legit. Russell Wilson and the Broncos’ offense have some deep issues, no doubt. And Denver’s failures certainly contributed to the success of the Indianapolis defense. But the Colts dominated the line of scrimmage, and that is an area where having an advantage can go a long way. Indianapolis has not allowed any points in the fourth quarter or overtime in its five games.
Can the Colts stabilize their offensive line even a little? They’re desperately trying. The Colts reconfigured their lineup for Thursday night’s matchup, making moves at three of the five positions. It didn’t work, though, so they might not be done tinkering. During their 10-day layoff before Week 6, they will continue examining their options. But nothing matters unless highly paid linemen such as Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly and Braden Smith play, at minimum, at a respectable level. That might be enough to allow embattled quarterback Matt Ryan and an emerging group of pass-catchers to keep the Colts in games. Maybe. — Stephen Holder
Next game: vs. Jaguars (Sunday, Oct. 16, 1 p.m. ET)
Broncos
What to know: All those good intentions from the offseason simply don’t matter now, as the Broncos’ offense has the look of a group that overreaches when it doesn’t have to and overthinks when it shouldn’t. The result is the Broncos simply don’t score touchdowns at a rate that’s anywhere close to a playoff hopeful. Thursday night, they handed the Colts an ugly overtime win with two Wilson interceptions in the fourth quarter — both in Colts territory. And on the game’s last play, when a conversion of a fourth-and-inches would have given them four chances at a game-winning touchdown, they elected to put Wilson in the shotgun, and he threw an incompletion to end the game.
Is Russell Wilson pressing? Not all the time, but there are moments, especially when Wilson is trying to push the ball downfield when he doesn’t have to, when it looks like he is trying to live up to the trade and his contract on every play. He played his most composed, most efficient game in the season opener — the loss in Seattle — and it also happens to be his only 300-yard passing game of the young season. The Broncos haven’t protected him well enough, and running back Javonte Williams‘ season-ending knee injury will take some adjustment, but things aren’t going to improve until Wilson — and coach Nathaniel Hackett — settle down a little. Furthermore, it was reported Saturday that Wilson is dealing with a partially torn lat near his throwing shoulder. — Jeff Legwold
Next game: at Chargers (Monday, Oct. 17, 8:15 p.m. ET)
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Author of book, “Yes, It’s Hot in Here.”
Whom should you start? Whom should you sit? To help you set your fantasy football lineups and avoid starting a player who won’t be in the lineup, we’ll post fantasy-relevant updates and analysis here as NFL teams release their official inactives lists, typically about 90 minutes before kickoff. Any rankings cited in this column come from our ESPN Fantasy staff ranks.
Official Sunday inactives should begin coming in approximately 90 minutes prior to the scheduled kickoff times, including around 11:30 a.m. ET for the early games and 2:30 p.m. ET for the late games.
Refresh often for the latest information.
9:30 a.m. ET game, London
Tyrod Taylor, QB, NYG: Concussion — OUT Impact: Daniel Jones (ankle) is expected to start, but Davis Webb could still end up under center at some point.
Jake Kumerow, WR, BUF: Ankle — OUT Impact: Crowder’s move to IR opens up playing time for Kumerow over the next few weeks. He just has to get healthy himself first.
Dawson Knox, TE, BUF: Foot — OUT Impact: Quintin Morris will start in his place, but has little fantasy value.
David Montgomery, RB, CHI: Ankle — Questionable Impact: There’s a good chance that he will play, but that doesn’t preclude Khalil Herbert from getting more snaps than him today.
Tee Higgins, WR, CIN: Ankle — Questionable Impact: The team has stated that they expect Higgins to suit up.
Hayden Hurst, TE, CIN: Groin — Questionable Impact: Likely to play, but have someone like Mitchell Wilcox on your roster, just in case you need to make a late swap.
“While the investigation determined that the team medical staff and unaffiliated medical professionals followed the steps of the Protocol as written, the NFL and NFLPA agree that the outcome in this case is not what was intended when the Protocols were drafted,” a joint statement read
Last Updated: 08/10/22 11:11pm
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Miami Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa was taken to hospital with head and neck injuries after being forced out of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals but should he have taken the field in the first place after being concussed four days earlier?
Miami Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa was taken to hospital with head and neck injuries after being forced out of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals but should he have taken the field in the first place after being concussed four days earlier?
The National Football League (NFL) and its players’ association have agreed to enhanced concussion protocols after a head injury suffered by Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa prompted widespread concern.
A joint statement from the two parties on Saturday said ataxia – which includes abnormal balance, motor coordination or “dysfunctional speech” – would be added as a “no-go” symptom. Players diagnosed with ataxia during a game will not be allowed to return to the field.
Tagovailoa was carried off the field last week when his head slammed into the turf as he took a sack during a game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Fans and armchair experts alike questioned why he was allowed to play against the Bengals as four days prior he looked disoriented after hitting his head to the ground during a game against the Buffalo Bills.
Miami coach Mike McDaniel defended his decision to allow Tagovailoa to play against the Bengals, saying “several layers of medical professionals” had cleared the quarterback.
The NFLPA initiated an investigation into the incident.
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Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel described Tua Tagovailoa’s collision as ‘scary’ after the quarterback was hospitalized against the Cincinnati Bengals
Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel described Tua Tagovailoa’s collision as ‘scary’ after the quarterback was hospitalized against the Cincinnati Bengals
“While the investigation determined that the team medical staff and unaffiliated medical professionals followed the steps of the Protocol as written, the NFL and NFLPA agree that the outcome in this case is not what was intended when the Protocols were drafted,” the joint statement read.
“As such, as has been done in previous cases, based on the advice of the parties’ respective medical experts, the Protocol will be modified to enhance the safety of the players. Specifically, the term “ataxia” has been added to the mandatory “no-go” symptoms.
“‘Ataxia” is defined as abnormality of balance/stability, motor coordination or dysfunctional speech caused by a neurological issue.
“In other words, if a player is diagnosed with “ataxia” by any club or neutral physician involved in the application of the Concussion Protocol, he will be prohibited from returning to the game, and will receive the follow-up care required by the Protocol.”
Tagovailoa will not travel for his team’s Sunday game against the New York Jets.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa “could have died” as a result of the mismanagement of a concussion, former rugby league player Stevie Ward has told Sky Sports.
Ward, who was captain of Leeds Rhinos before he was forced to retire from rugby league at the age of 27 due to concussions he suffered on the field, said: “We need to sit with the understanding that people are getting really ill, whether that’s short-term or long-term.”
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Former Leeds Rhinos forward Stevie Ward, who retired aged 27 due to long-standing consequences of a concussion injury, says Tua Tagovailoa could have died, after re-entering the field against the Buffalo Bills following a concussion.
Former Leeds Rhinos forward Stevie Ward, who retired aged 27 due to long-standing consequences of a concussion injury, says Tua Tagovailoa could have died, after re-entering the field against the Buffalo Bills following a concussion.
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Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow described Tua Tagovailoa’s injury as ‘scary’ after he was taken to hospital with head, neck and back injuries
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow described Tua Tagovailoa’s injury as ‘scary’ after he was taken to hospital with head, neck and back injuries
“I saw that injury, the first one on the Sunday,” Ward said. “And the way that he got up, then stumbling to the floor – his team-mates holding him up, knowing it’s not right – there’s fundamentally something wrong.
“But then he’s able to come back onto the field and test himself against the other team of prime athletes, who are all out to get him… and he plays four days later.
The Week 5 NFL schedule for the 2022 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football intel, as well. Finally, Seth Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 5 slate, including another London showdown (Giants-Packers), Kenny Pickett‘s first start, Jalen Hurts vs. Kyler Murray and an AFC North meeting between the Bengals and Ravens. It all culminates with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Raiders and the Chiefs on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
What to watch for: This could be a nightmare matchup for the Packers’ defense. It ranks in the bottom third of the NFL in yards allowed per carry (5.0), and the Giants — with the NFL’s leading rusher, Saquon Barkley — run it at the second-best clip in the league (5.8 yards per carry). It prompted Packers coach Matt LaFleur to say this week that defensive coordinator Joe Barry needs to have his players “play more physical” and “in certain situations you might have to put an extra defender in the box.” — Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction:Aaron Rodgers throws for 300-plus yards and at least three touchdowns. Rodgers hasn’t topped 255 yards passing this season, and the Giants have the eighth-ranked pass defense. But New York also hasn’t faced a quarterback like Rodgers and has a pedestrian 9.0 sacks and a 29.0% pressure rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats. This could be Rodgers’ breakout game. As Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale said of the Packers QB, ‘It’s like owning a python and saying, ‘Don’t worry about it, he won’t bite.’” — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: Rodgers is averaging 6.2 air yards per attempt, his fewest through four games since becoming a starter in 2008. His 43.1 QBR this season is also his worst through the first four games in that same time frame.
What to know for fantasy: Barkley has more than 20 carries or a rushing TD in all four games this season and leads the league in percentage of team offense accounted for (40.4%). See Week 5 rankings.
Betting nugget: Over the past 15 seasons, teams favored by at least seven points in international games are 7-0 ATS (6-0 ATS in London). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Packers 31, Giants 14 Walder’s pick: Packers 24, Giants 12 FPI prediction: GB, 86.9% (by an average of 13.5 points)
What to watch for: The Bucs are on a rare two-game slide and are 0-2 at home so far this season, while the Falcons have won two straight. The Bucs also gave up an uncharacteristic 189 rushing yards in their 41-31 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last week — the most they’ve surrendered since 2018. Getting back to what they do best — stopping the run — is paramount this week. On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady said his shoulder is fine, but former Falcon Julio Jones‘ status is up in the air after missing the second half last week because of a knee injury. — Jenna Laine
Bold prediction: The Falcons, with no Cordarrelle Patterson and against a good run defense, will manage to once again top 150 rushing yards with Tyler Allgeier leading the way. Allgeier and Caleb Huntley will handle the majority of the work with Patterson (knee) on injured reserve, and the two young backs will alternate to cause problems for the Buccaneers. Atlanta has rushed for at least 179 yards in three of its four games. — Michael Rothstein
Stat to know: Brady’s only three-game losing streak in his career came from Weeks 4 to 8 in 2002, his second season as a starter.
What to know for fantasy: When you see “Brady vs. Atlanta,” you likely think about the Super Bowl comeback, but that’s not going to help you. What will help you is the fact that the GOAT is averaging 28.0 PPG as a Buccaneer against the Falcons. See Week 5 rankings.
Betting nugget: Atlanta is 4-0 ATS this season, all as an underdog. Atlanta is the only team this season undefeated against the spread. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 34, Falcons 14 Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Falcons 13 FPI prediction: TB, 85.9% (by an average of 12.9 points)
What to watch for: Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett is set to make his first career start against a Bills defense that is tied with the San Francisco 49ers for giving up the fewest yards per game (234.5). Pickett was picked off three times while playing in the second half last week vs. the Jets, and his ability to make good decisions on the road will go a long way against a defense tied for the league lead in interceptions (seven). — Alaina Getzenberg
Bold prediction: Bills RB Devin Singletary will have his first 100-yard game of the season. With a banged-up Steelers defense that has struggled since T.J. Watt‘s Week 1 injury, this game has the potential for any number of Buffalo offensive superlatives. But let’s put the bold in bold prediction. The Bills aren’t known for a traditional ground game, but the Steelers’ defense is giving up an average of 131.5 rushing yards per game. Because of the injuries in the Steelers’ secondary, Josh Allen is primed to jump out to a big lead early and then let the ground attack go to work to run out the rest of the game. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: Allen has accounted for all 12 of the Bills’ offensive touchdowns this season (either pass or scored).
What to know for fantasy:Najee Harris averaged over 4.0 yards per carry for the first time this season last week, but he failed to record a reception in Pickett’s NFL debut. See Week 5 rankings.
Betting nugget: Last season, first-round quarterbacks making their first career starts went 0-5 ATS. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bills 34, Steelers 17 Walder’s pick: Bills 30, Steelers 10 FPI prediction: BUF, 86.2% (by an average of 13.0 points)
What to watch for: The Patriots have given up 325 rushing yards on 51 carries (6.37 on average) over their past six quarters, while the Lions rank first in the NFL in average yards per rush (5.9) and sixth in total rushing yards per game (164). New England’s slide has coincided with losing DT Lawrence Guy (shoulder), who might be ready to return. That would help against a Lions offensive line featuring three solid first-round picks in left tackle Taylor Decker (2016), center Frank Ragnow (2018) and right tackle Penei Sewell (2021). — Mike Reiss
Bold prediction: Lions running back Jamaal Williams will rush for at least two touchdowns. No, Williams isn’t the greatest running back of all time — or possibly even the best overall on his team — but he has proven to be consistent and durable behind a strong offensive line. He will etch his name in the record books, joining Jim Brown in 1958 as the second player in league history to score multiple touchdowns in four of the team’s first five games. Even without D’Andre Swift, the Lions’ ground attack is rolling, and that won’t stop against New England. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know:Jared Goff is tied for the lead in passing touchdowns with 11. That is tied for most through four games in his career (2018).
What to know for fantasy:T.J. Hockenson had 24.2 fantasy points through three weeks before exploding for a career-best 39.9 points last week against the Seahawks. The Patriots have allowed a league-high five touchdowns to tight ends this season. See Week 5 rankings.
Betting nugget: Detroit has covered six straight road games, but it is 0-10-1 outright in its past 11 road games (0-9-1 under Dan Campbell). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Lions 27, Patriots 24 Walder’s pick: Lions 31, Patriots 17 FPI prediction: NE, 56% (by an average of 1.7 points)
What to watch for: The Vikings’ defense has given up 1,054 passing yards this season, seventh-most in the NFL, as it meanders through the adjustment process to coordinator Ed Donatell’s 3-4 scheme. The Bears, however, are the league’s least-equipped team to exploit that shortcoming. Through four games, they have collected an NFL-low 390 passing yards — the fourth fewest by any team at this point in a season since 2000. — Kevin Seifert
Bold prediction:Kirk Cousins will have another three-interception day against the Bears’ defense, akin to the last time the Vikings played against Matt Eberflus in Indianapolis, where Cousins recorded a 15.7 passer rating and three picks. This scheme has not changed and is bolstered on the back end by Eddie Jackson, who leads the NFC in interceptions with three in four games. Chicago knows how dangerous Minnesota’s run game can be, so they’ll stack the box to try to take away Dalvin Cook and make Cousins beat them with his arm. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Vikings have allowed at least 300 yards in 12 straight games dating back to last season. While they are struggling in the passing game, the Bears are third in the NFL in rushing yards (709).
What to watch for: The Dolphins, aiming to put aside the Tua Tagovailoa concussion controversy, hope to improve to 4-1 for the first time since 2003. QB Teddy Bridgewater is 2-0 lifetime against the Jets, who look to go over .500 for the first time since a 1-0 start in 2018. They’re tied for fourth with 25 explosive pass plays (16-plus yards), and Miami’s banged-up secondary is giving up huge chunks in the passing game (31st in yards). — Rich Cimini
Bold prediction: Bridgewater with throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns, including two to Tyreek Hill. The team has preached all week that their offense won’t change much with the backup quarterback starting, and he’ll prove them right come Sunday. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: The Dolphins’ 11-2 record since 2021 Week 9 is tied with the Chiefs for best in the NFL. They also rank No. 1 in both defensive efficiency and QBR allowed in that span.
What to know for fantasy:Breece Hall has a touchdown or six catches in all four games this season and seems to be trending in the direction of a lineup lock. See Week 5 rankings.
Betting nugget: Over the past five seasons, Miami is 13-7 ATS as a favorite. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 24, Jets 17 Walder’s pick: Dolphins 26, Jets 10 FPI prediction: MIA, 55% (by an average of 1.6 points)
What to watch for:Justin Herbert finished with 398 passing yards in the Chargers’ win over the Browns last season, the most Cleveland surrendered in any game in 2021. Herbert also totaled five touchdowns. While the Chargers’ running game has struggled, Herbert will always be a threat in the passing game. But Browns RB Nick Chubb leads the NFL in rushing first downs and rushes of 10-plus yards. And the Chargers have allowed 5.4 yards per rush, the second worst in the NFL. So, these teams could have to rely on their defenses. — Jake Trotter
Bold prediction: The Chargers have yet to put together a 100-rushing yard performance this season, but that will change Sunday against the Browns. The Bolts are averaging an NFL-low 64.5 rushing yards per game, while the Browns’ defense is ranked 17th, allowing an average of 113 yards per game. — Lindsey Thiry
Stat to know:Jacoby Brissett is fifth in both QBR (75) and completion percentage (74%) in home games this season.
What to know for fantasy:Austin Ekeler scored more fantasy points last week in Houston (34.9) than he did in the two weeks prior combined (31.7). The versatile back is now on pace for 115 catches this season. See Week 5 rankings.
Betting nugget: Brandon Staley is 1-3 outright and ATS as a road favorite (won last week). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chargers 27, Browns 20 Walder’s pick: Chargers 24, Browns 20 FPI prediction: LAC, 57.5% (by an average of 2.3 points)
What to watch for: It looks like another week without Winston and wide receiver Michael Thomas, which would mean Andy Dalton will likely take over again at quarterback. The Saints’ problems are beyond the quarterback right now, as they are among the worst teams in the league in both penalties and turnover differential. The one thing that might help their offense is the return of running back Alvin Kamara, who said he’s ready to roll this week. — Katherine Terrell
Bold prediction:Ryan Neal will take over for Josh Jones in the starting lineup and spark Seattle’s struggling defense with a game-changing takeaway. Neal has played well in the past while filling in for Jamal Adams and appears to be in line to get another opportunity, having replaced Jones in the fourth quarter of Seattle’s win over Detroit. The Saints, meanwhile, have committed an NFL-high 11 turnovers — including five interceptions in three games from Jameis Winston — so the opportunity will be there. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know:Geno Smith has a 77.3 completion percentage this season, the highest by any QB through a team’s first four games of a season in NFL history (min. 125 attempts).
What to know for fantasy:DK Metcalf had the big Week 4, but Tyler Lockett has benefited most from the overachieving of Smith … more than 75 receiving yards in three straight games. See Week 5 rankings.
Betting nugget: Smith is 23-15 ATS in his career, including 10-2 ATS in his past 12 starts and 5-2 ATS with Seattle. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Saints 27, Seahawks 24 Walder’s pick: Seahawks 19, Saints 16 FPI prediction: NO, 72.6% (by an average of 6.9 points)
What to watch for: Washington has done a nice job stopping the run the past two weeks against the Eagles and Cowboys, allowing an NFL-best 2.27 yards per carry and tying for second at 67 yards allowed during that stretch. The Commanders have allowed 1.17 yards after contact, also second best the past two weeks. But the Commanders’ run defense will be severely tested by Tennessee running back Derrick Henry. He started slow, but has run for 199 yards combined the past two weeks and ranks third in the NFL in yards after first contact at 3.21 in that time. — John Keim
Bold prediction: Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill will finish with 300 passing yards in a win over the Commanders. He will find a way to connect with a receiver group that will be missing first-round pick Treylon Burks. Tannehill had only two 300-yard passing games last season and has yet to have one this year. Washington’s pass defense is allowing 259.8 yards per game, but 294 yards per game at home. — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: The Titans have allowed a player to record six or more receptions in each of their four games this season. Commanders WR Curtis Samuel has 26 receptions this season, tied with Travis Kelce and Davante Adams for eighth most in the NFL.
What to know for fantasy: Henry didn’t catch a single pass in the first two weeks but has eight (for 91 yards) over the past two weeks. See Week 5 rankings.
Betting nugget: Washington has failed to cover in three straight games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Commanders 30, Titans 27 Walder’s pick: Commanders 20, Titans 16 FPI prediction: WSH, 60.9% (by an average of 3.1 points)
What to watch for: Texans running back Dameon Pierce is coming off the first 100-yard game of his career (which included a 75-yard TD run) and ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing. The Jaguars were leading the NFL in rush defense until giving up 210 yards and four rushing touchdowns in a loss at Philadelphia last weekend. Expect the Texans to feed the Jaguars a heavy dose of Pierce, especially with run-game anchor Foley Fatukasi dealing with a quad injury. — Mike DiRocco
Bold prediction: Texans wideout Brandin Cooks will have his best outing of the season with a 100-yard game. This season, Cooks has zero 100-yard receiving games and has averaged just 53 yards per game. But in Cooks’ five career games against the Jaguars, he has averaged 120 yards with five touchdowns. That’ll help the Texans continue their eight-game winning streak over the Jaguars. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: Trevor Lawrence struggles under pressure, having the largest drop-off of any QB in QBR (-76) compared to when he’s not pressured. When pressured, he ranks in the bottom of the league in QBR, completion percentage and yards per attempt.
What to know for fantasy: Pierce has more than 100 scrimmage yards and a rushing score in consecutive games. His six catches last week against the Chargers are 60% of his grabs for the season. See Week 5 rankings.
Betting nugget: The past four times Jacksonville was a favorite, it lost the game outright, with three of those losses coming against Houston. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 34, Texans 14 Walder’s pick: Jaguars 31, Texans 9 FPI prediction: JAX, 71.8% (by an average of 6.6 points)
What to watch for: Things have not being going well for Baker Mayfield. He has had 11 passes batted down at the line of scrimmage, six more than any quarterback in the NFL this season. He has also been sacked 11 times, tied for the eighth most in the NFL. San Francisco’s defense had seven sacks and 17 quarterback pressures on Monday night against the Rams. The 49ers are tied for second in the NFL in sacks with 15 — which is not a good omen for Mayfield. — David Newton
Bold prediction:San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa will have three sacks in his second career game against the Panthers. Bosa dominated Carolina in 2019 with three sacks and an interception. He is leading the NFL in sacks and pressures this year. What’s more, it’s Mayfield at quarterback for the Panthers this time, the same signal-caller Bosa made a point of terrorizing in 2019 with two sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. Another big day could be in store for Bosa here, and don’t be surprised if he brings back the “flag plant” celebration he used against Mayfield in that previous meeting. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: The 49ers are 0-2 and averaging 10.0 points per game on the road this season — and 2-0, 25.5 PPG at home. They haven’t lost three straight road games since 2018.
What to know for fantasy:Christian McCaffrey has set the bar so high that three straight games with more than 100 scrimmage yards isn’t enough to put him in the good graces of fantasy managers. See Week 5 rankings.
Betting nugget: Carolina is 3-15 ATS in its past 18 games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 27, Panthers 10 Walder’s pick: 49ers 23, Panthers 14 FPI prediction: CAR, 56.2% (by an average of 1.8 points)
What to watch for: The Cardinals will have their work cut out for them passing and defending the ball. Philadelphia is allowing a league-low 4.75 yards per pass, and the Cardinals are ranked 30th in passing yards per play (5.37). Additionally, the Eagles are averaging a league-high 8.79 passing yards per play while the Cardinals are giving up 7.36, which ranks 25th in the league. — Josh Weinfuss
Bold prediction: Arizona will double its sack total on the season and take Jalen Hurts down four times. The Cards are dead last in the league with four sacks entering Week 5. They’re catching the Eagles’ normally dominant offense at the right time, with left tackle Jordan Mailata (shoulder) and right guard Isaac Seumalo (ankle) dealing with injuries. Jack Driscoll, who hasn’t started a game at left tackle since college, has been getting the work on Hurts’ blind side this week. While he acquitted himself generally well in a tough spot when Mailata went down against the Jaguars on Sunday, Arizona should have some opportunities to affect the passer. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: The Eagles are the only team to win the turnover battle in every game this season. They have an NFL-best plus-eight turnover margin.
What to know for fantasy:Marquise Brown has scored at least 12.8 fantasy points in every game this season and has at least 11 targets in three straight games. The role is great, but don’t forget DeAndre Hopkins‘ suspension has just two weeks left on it. See Week 5 rankings.
Betting nugget: Arizona is 19-9 ATS in September/October under Kliff Kingsbury (12-3 ATS in October). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Eagles 30, Cardinals 17 Walder’s pick: Eagles 23, Cardinals 20 FPI prediction: ARI, 56.4% (by an average of 1.8 points)
What to watch for:Matthew Stafford has been sacked 16 times this season, which is tied for the second most in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are tied for second in the league with 15 sacks and own the best pass rush win rate in the NFL (56.3%), according to ESPN Metrics powered by NFL Next Gen Stats. So it is possible things don’t get better for Stafford this week. — Sarah Barshop
Bold prediction:CeeDee Lamb will finish with more catches than Cooper Kupp. Through four games, Kupp has been targeted 54 times with 42 catches for 402 yards. Lamb has been targeted 42 times with 23 catches for 288 yards. The Cowboys will be the third pass defense the Rams have faced so far ranked in the top seven, and their varied pass rush will make life difficult for Stafford. With the return of Michael Gallup, Lamb will have chances to get away from Jalen Ramsey to make more plays. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: The Rams have been outscored 44-3 with an NFL-worst minus-41 point differential in the fourth quarter this season — they have outscored opponents by 17 in the first three quarters.
What to know for fantasy:Tony Pollard averaged 3.0 catches per game through two weeks, but in the past two weeks, he has a total of 2 receiving yards. See Week 5 rankings.
Betting nugget: Since the start of last season, Dallas is 9-1 ATS on the road and 13-2 ATS in conference games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 23, Rams 20 Walder’s pick: Rams 27, Cowboys 17 FPI prediction: LA, 65.1% (by an average of 4.7 points)
What to watch for: The Ravens have lost a franchise-worst five straight home games (by a total of 12 points), dating back to last season. This is the second-longest current home losing streak in the NFL behind the Cardinals, who have dropped seven in a row at home. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has excelled in his past eight road games, going 6-2 with 18 touchdowns and four interceptions. Thus, breaking the streak won’t be easy for the Ravens. — Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: Ja’Marr Chase will have more than 125 receiving yards. Baltimore’s defense has struggled, and the amount of damage opposing teams have done through the air bodes well for the Bengals and Chase, who has received extra attention from opposing teams this season. — Ben Baby
Stat to know:Joe Burrow has 12 touchdowns on passes of 20-plus yards downfield since the start of last season. He is tied with Russell Wilson for the most in the NFL in that span.
What to know for fantasy: With two games of seven-plus targets already this season, plus a TD reception in Week 4, Bengals tight end Hayden Hurst has potential. See Week 5 rankings.
Betting nugget: Baltimore is 12-2-2 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 since 2019 (Lamar Jackson’s first full season as starter). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bengals 27, Ravens 24 Walder’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 26 FPI prediction: CIN, 52.7% (by an average of 0.9 points)
What to watch for: The Raiders might need to score a big number in order to win. Patrick Mahomes has been as good against the Raiders as any opponent, with a 7-1 record, 22 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Last year alone, Mahomes threw seven touchdowns with no interceptions in two games as the Chiefs scored a combined 89 points. — Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: Raiders cornerback Amik Robertson will have a takeaway against the Chiefs. Listed at 5-foot-8, 187 pounds, he stood tall against Denver last week with a 68-yard scoop-and-score TD and played tough defense against Jerry Jeudy. Meanwhile, Mahomes has thrown two interceptions, and the team has also lost two fumbles through four games. — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: The Chiefs have won six straight home games on Monday Night Football with the last loss coming in 2004 against the Patriots.
What to know for fantasy:Derek Carr has completed over 70% of his passes in four straight games against the Chiefs and cleared 18 fantasy points in three of those contests. See Week 5 rankings.
Betting nugget: Mahomes is 7-1 outright and 6-2 ATS against Las Vegas. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 41, Raiders 24 Walder’s pick: Raiders 30, Chiefs 27 FPI prediction: KC, 62% (by an average of 3.7 points)
Misery loves company. At least that’s what my fellow Las Vegas Raiders fans have been telling me since I was 5 years old. Conversely, celebrating is always more fun when you’ve got friends. That’s why starting this week, we are adding the fantasy football world to our weekly therapy session.
There are two things I’m sure of: My weeks are better when my beloved Raiders win, and all of our weeks are better when we share the chaos together. Let’s start filling those buckets with tears of joy or sadness.
Fantasy frustrations
The football gods wasted NO time Sunday reminding us that they run things. Imagine being the guy who was offered Rashaad Penny in a fantasy trade this week, turned the trade down, and then faced him this week? Yeah, that was my buddy Dave. Fear not, Dave, the pain was felt everywhere.
From the Raiders suddenly deciding to hand the ball off to Josh Jacobs to Penny throwing up Madden-like numbers to Miles Sanders absolutely making us all look stupid, it was what I like to call Pie Week for fantasy football players. Because by late Monday night, all of us were eating a slice of that humble pie.
—
Vann “Just take that L” Pugh
(@themadlineman) Oct 2, 2022
Verdict: Five buckets. Five overflowing buckets.
Ahhhhh, the joy of betting is that a game that most of these players’ families don’t even want to watch becomes must-see TV. The Browns were up by three at the half, and everyone who bet Cleveland in this game had to feel good. Not so fast! Two late fourth-quarter field goals gave the Falcons the win — and more importantly kept Atlanta undefeated!
No, not in the standings, don’t be silly. But where most of you care most.
It’s a game of inches, Brandon … or yards, in this case. Actually, a yard. Yikes. I’m not helping this situation.
Verdict: Four buckets
Don’t @ me, analytics nerds, about John Harbaugh’s decision to go for fourth-and-goal late in a tied game from the 2-yard line. Sometimes taking the points is like a plain bologna sandwich on generic bread. Is it exciting? No. Is it satisfying? Kind of. Do you wish it was better … had more flair … was more what you expected? Obviously. But you’ve got to eat, and food is food. You have to win, and points are points. Instead of taking those points, you give the Bills the ball back tied and Josh Allen has one of those MVP-type moments that MVP-type players have.
—
PointsBet Sportsbook
(@PointsBetUSA) Oct 2, 2022
Verdict: Three buckets
Saturday was also … well … interesting? I mean, most of us were done before the day had even started thanks to TCU’s shocking shellacking of Oklahoma. This was how we ALL felt by halftime of the early games!
But just when you thought life couldn’t get any weirder, this happened.
Imagine being the guy who went to Syracuse, knows his team incredibly well and advises all of his buddies to take the under against Wagner at 63.5. It’s 49-0 at halftime …
Everyone can rejoice! Crisis averted! We’re all rich! Orrrrrrrrrr ……
Dust if off. We will get ’em next week. And just remember no matter how much grief your friends are giving you this week for your performance last weekend, it won’t equal the amount of grief the world is giving DK.
Per the FOX broadcast, D.K. Metcalf was actually carted off to the locker room for a bathroom break.
In a snake draft if you don’t have the No. 1 pick, you’ll have a hard time getting Nikola Jokic. However, in a salary cap draft you can absolutely land the Joker, you just need to pony up.
The reigning two-time MVP has been going for an average of $70 of the standard $200 budget used in ESPN salary cap drafts. You can even pair him with his rival Joel Embiid for a cool $130 and create an incredibly talented, if awkward, MVP competition on your own fantasy roster. This strategy leaves you little left to build out the rest of your team, but speaks to the freedom managers have in this format.
With this freedom comes the responsibility to refine and define your strategy and player valuations. You determine which players best fit your philosophy, rather than the draft spot you have. Longtime ESPN fantasy hoops analyst Jon Cregan even wrote an evergreen opus covering all things salary cap. If you want to dive into the details of budgeting strategies and team-building philosophies germane to salary drafts, start with that piece.
Some might call paying up for Embiid and Jokic the beginning of a “stars and scrubs” approach, one that surrounds a handful of pricey superstars with a series of sleepers and fringe fantasy options. The extreme version suggests, in snake draft terms, you pay for two or three first rounders and then 10 late-round players.
This isn’t an ideal approach, mostly because there are so many high-level NBA stars and thus scarcity isn’t in your favor when pursuing a top-heavy build. Such an approach is more palatable in fantasy football, where there is more scarcity of reliable elite skill players.
In basketball, you can argue there are nearly 20 players “worthy” of first-round consideration in statistical terms. You should still pursue multiple stars atop your hoops roster, but it shouldn’t take up such a disproportionate part of your budget.
While snake drafts can certainly offer surprises and create real pivot points you might not have expected, the volatility of the unique market that develops in each salary cap draft is more pronounced. Being informed allows you to be adaptive in the draft, so you can recognize where to spend and where to stay patient.
What makes fantasy basketball so rewarding is how managers recognize and value versatility. Save for points formats, most leagues are driven by categories. You need your superstar wings to produce, but you also need rim-protection specialists to supplement the build.
You know who the high-dollar superstars are but can you get the best price? It’s good to have some price points that you really stick to. There’s not a ton of strategy when it comes to pairing Durant and Dejounte Murray to open your draft if the driving force was purely value.
If you believe Durant is still a bankable $55 player (worth more than that last season) and you can land him at $46, that’s highly advisable. If the room was too scared to pay market value for Murray amid the mystery of his fit with Trae Young, that can prove profitable. Some drafts might unfold and see each player go well above expectations or projections. Variance from draft to draft is a feature of the format.
My favorite approach in recent years has been to identify a collection of sleepers and specialists at each position who can serve to complement whatever collection of higher-dollar stars I’ve already built. Which is to say, I’m more likely to consistently target and land these players given their markets aren’t as fluid as those of star players. I might not intend to draft Damian Lillard and Anthony Davis, but I am fine doing so if the prices are true values. I do intend, however, to draft Desmond Bane in almost all salary cap leagues this season.
Bane leaps off the page as a major value in salary cap drafts because he going to see a career high in minutes, he’s entering his prime in his third season, and the Grizzlies’ dont have much depth behind him. If Bane cruises past 30 minutes per night, he is on the path to posting prime Klay Thompson lines, with an average price point of just $8 in ESPN drafts.
In addition to Bane, I also like Herbert Jones for his incredible steal and block rates and scoring forces Jamal Murray and Collin Sexton. These are players that are going below $10 that could triple their current value this season. Guys like Devin Vassell, Gordon Hayward, Monte Morris, and P.J. Washington won’t cost much more than a dollar in most drafts, but will be on almost all of my rosters. Having a list of players you want will often result in you landing a lot of those players.
Being nimble during those early big-name nominations is pivotal. Value will absolutely develop; it just might not be in those first few names. Then you can pursue your own list of sleepers and values at each position. It sounds like something on a terrible motivational poster, but the balance between patience and preparation is what we aim to strike in salary cap drafts.
Sunday’s action kicked off early (9:30 a.m. ET) as the Minnesota Vikings took on the New Orleans Saints in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. The game came down to the final seconds, when Wil Lutz‘s 61-yard field goal attempt hit off the upright and the crossbar but fell short.
The Las Vegas Raiders finally got in the win column in the later afternoon window, defeating the Denver Broncos to give coach Josh McDaniels his first victory in silver and black. The Green Bay Packers moved to 3-1 with a last-second, overtime win versus a gutty New England Patriots team playing with a third-string rookie quarterback.
Our NFL Nation reporters react with the biggest takeaways and lingering questions coming out of this week’s matchups and look ahead to what’s next. Let’s get to it.
What to know: The Chiefs can flourish offensively in the absence of wide receiver Tyreek Hill. They just have a different area of strength. It’s no longer necessarily the wide receivers, but it’s their tight ends and running backs now. All five of their touchdowns were scored by tight ends or backs, including three touchdown passes by quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has nine passing TDs this season to backs or tight ends, four more than any other quarterback.
Is there reason to worry about the defense after Week 4 performance? There isn’t. The Chiefs played complementary football, allowing just two plays of more than 20 yards. They made the Bucs go on long, time-consuming drives to get their points. The Chiefs made the game’s biggest play on defense on L’Jarius Sneed‘s sack and strip of Tom Brady in the second quarter, a play that gave Mahomes and the offense good field position to score the touchdown that gave them a 28-10 lead. — Adam Teicher
Next game: vs. Raiders (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Buccaneers
What to know: The Bucs’ offensive struggles were magnified against one of the league’s most potent offenses, and the defense’s inability to stop it. They started off in a 21-3 hole in the second quarter, and then 38-17 in the third. Turnovers didn’t help. The Chiefs scored 14 points off two fumbles in the first half — the first from rookie Rachaad White on the opening kickoff and the second on sack of quarterback Tom Brady. They started to find their rhythm with two touchdowns from receiver Mike Evans, who returned from after a one-game suspension. But it wasn’t enough.
Is a 2-2 start a bad omen for the Bucs? No. Let’s put things into perspective. The Bucs are 2-2 through the first four games of the regular season against teams that finished a combined 46-22 last year. This is the seventh time that Brady is 2-2 (2003, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2017, 2018) with four of those seasons (2003, 2014, 2017, 2018) culminating in a trip to the Super Bowl. This was supposed to be the hardest part of the Bucs’ schedule, though. Their remaining opponents are a combined 18-24 — and they play division rivals Carolina (1-3) and Atlanta (2-2) twice. — Jenna Laine
Next game: vs. Falcons (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Packers
What to know: Don’t give Aaron Rodgers more than one chance to win it in overtime. As ugly as the end of regulation and the first drive of overtime were, Rodgers wasn’t going to come up empty on a second possession in overtime. And he trusted his wide receivers to do it. Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb caught passes for first downs, and rookie Romeo Doubs added a couple of big catches to set up Mason Crosby‘s 31-yard game-winning field goal. It saved Rodgers and the Packers the indignity of losing to third-string rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe. Regardless of how difficult it looked, the Packers now have a legitimate chance to turn 3-1 into 6-1 heading to Buffalo in Week 8 given that they have the Giants, Jets and Commanders up next.
Is Rodgers still the Packers’ best player?Rashan Gary is making an argument against that. With two sacks on Sunday against the Patriots, he has five through four games. Gary became the first Packers player to record a sack in each of the first four games of a season since Cullen Jenkins in 2010. Previously, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila did it in 2001, when he had nine sacks in the first four games. Gary’s second sack on Sunday was a strip sack in which he also recovered the fumble, and he later set up Jarran Reed for a sack by forcing Zappe to step up in the pocket. — Rob Demovsky
Next game: vs. Giants (Sunday, 9:30am p.m. ET)
Patriots
What to know: Valiant effort. The Patriots had no business being in the game against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers — as they were down to their third-string quarterback after two series in a challenging road environment — but played with great heart and effort. There are no moral victories in the NFL, but it’s hard to knock the Patriots for taking Green Bay deep into overtime before falling.
Did Bailey Zappe just play himself into the top backup QB spot? The fourth-round pick out of Western Kentucky proved the moment wasn’t too big for him, coming on for veteran Brian Hoyer on the third offensive series of the game after Hoyer was knocked out of the game with a head injury. Zappe finished 10-of-15 passing for 99 yards and one touchdown, showing poise in a tough spot. He was sacked three times, losing a fumble on one. Clearly, the Patriots had to scale down their offense with Zappe, but he was poised and did enough to keep the team in the contest. — Mike Reiss
Next game: vs. Lions (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Raiders
What to know: Raiders coach Josh McDaniels can exhale. Finally. Having lost 15 of his past 20 games as a head coach, dating to his terrible tenure with the Denver Broncos in 2009 and 2010, McDaniels got his first win with the Raiders in Game 4. Yeah, against the team that fired him more than a decade ago. Irony, right? Sure, it’s one win, but at 1-3 and with another key AFC West battle up next in Kansas City, at least McDaniels and the Raiders can relax and stop worrying about getting that first W.
Do the Raiders have the rest of the AFC West right where they want them? Could be. Sure, Las Vegas is 1-3, but the Raiders just handled the Broncos, Kansas City looks vulnerable (the Chiefs play the Buccaneers Sunday night) and the Chargers, while they had a big win at woeful Houston, are a walking “M*A*S*H” unit. The Raiders go to Kansas City for a Monday night matchup next then enjoy a bye before the schedule lightens up considerably. It’s a long season, and the Raiders finally have some positive momentum. — Paul Gutierrez
Next game: at Chiefs (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Broncos
What to know: The Broncos’ offense broke through the atmospheric barrier that was 16 points with three Russell Wilson touchdowns (two passing, one rushing). But even with the comeback attempt on Sunday, they won’t really be back in the playoff conversation until they can do some damage in AFC West away games. The Raiders’ win over the Broncos is just another in a growing pile of losses to the Raiders and Chiefs that have contributed mightily to the Broncos being little more than parsley on the division’s plate.
OK, what’s the plan in the run game now after Javonte Williams‘ injury? So much of what an already-struggling Broncos offense does is dependent on running the ball, especially in the play-action passing game that coach Nathaniel Hackett wants to be a part of some big-play pop. Williams was taken to the locker room on a cart early in the third quarter with a right knee injury. And while Williams will receive additional tests, including an MRI on Monday, he couldn’t put any weight on the leg when he was helped to the sideline and had a towel on his head as he was driven to the locker room. Melvin Gordon III has fumbled four times in four games — the Broncos have lost two of those, including one the Raiders returned 68 yards for a touchdown on Sunday — and Mike Boone has been the Broncos’ change-of-pace option, not the hammer Williams can be. — Jeff Legwold
Next game: vs. Colts (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Cardinals
What to know: When the Cardinals’ offense finds its rhythm and tempo, it’s tough to beat. Kyler Murray is as dynamic of a player as there is in the NFL. Zach Ertz can do nearly anything Arizona needs. Marquise Brown is the perfect marriage of great hands and speed. But the problem this season is it takes too long for the Cardinals to find that rhythm and tempo — and even when they do, they’re too inconsistent. This was yet another week of a slow start and a fast finish. Fortunately for Arizona, the Panthers weren’t good enough to take advantage of it.
How much longer can the Cardinals survive their slow starts? Obviously, it all comes down to their opponent, but they know they can’t continue to make a habit of it. Teams like the Eagles, who come to Arizona next week, might not let the Cardinals come back. But teams such as the Seahawks and Saints might not be able to put them away. If this is the identity of this team, the Cardinals — players, coaches and fans — are in for a season of a lot of gray hairs. — Josh Weinfuss
Next game: vs. Eagles (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Panthers
What to know: The defense continues to be good enough to win, but Baker Mayfield isn’t. It’s not all on him, but most of what happened on Sunday was on Mayfield. He had five passes batted down at the line, raising his NFL lead to 11. He had two interceptions and a lost fumble, the 10th time since he entered the league in 2018 he has had three or more turnovers in a game. No quarterback has more. Opponents know Mayfield is not good against pressure, and they continue to bring it at the highest blitz rate in the league, about 35%. Mayfield isn’t responding the way good quarterbacks do, which is why the Panthers are 1-3.
Should the Panthers consider turning to Sam Darnold? Darnold (ankle) is set to come off injured reserve this week, and while there’s a reason he lost the starting job to Mayfield in training camp, the Panthers have to at least consider getting Darnold ready to play next week against the 49ers if Mayfield struggles early. This is no longer a small sample for Mayfield. He entered the day ranked 32nd in the NFL in total QBR (18.9), and he did nothing to improve that in Week 4 with a three-turnover performance. Darnold at times last season showed potential with a healthy Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey is healthy, and the defense is playing at a top-10 level, so maybe Darnold’s game management would give Carolina a chance. — David Newton
Next game: vs. 49ers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Eagles
What to know: The Eagles can win ugly, too. With quarterback Jalen Hurts not at his best (16-for-25, 204 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT) and the weather conditions poor at Lincoln Financial Field, the defense and ground game took over. Corner James Bradberry turned the tide, intercepting Trevor Lawrence late in the third quarter with the Jags threatening down six points. The defense generated five takeaways in all, while Philadelphia’s rushing attack racked up over 200 yards and four touchdowns on a Jacksonville defense that was holding teams to a league-low 55 rushing yards per game coming in. The Eagles have proved they can win shootouts and slop-fests alike through four weeks.
Will the mounting injuries hold them back? Cornerback Darius Slay (forearm), tackle Jordan Mailata (shoulder), guard Isaac Seumalo (ankle) and linebackers Patrick Johnson (head injury) and Kyron Johnson (head) all left the game for the Eagles, who were already without corner Avonte Maddox (ankle) and running back Boston Scott (rib). Philadelphia has largely enjoyed good health to this point, but there are multiple injuries to monitor heading into next week’s game at the Cardinals. — Tim McManus
Next game: at Cardinals (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Jaguars
What to know: The Jaguars are an improved team under coach Doug Pederson, but they’re not good enough to overcome being careless with the football. They turned the ball over five times Sunday after committing just one turnover over their first three games. Those five takeaways resulted in 22 points for Philadelphia. That can’t happen, especially on the road against a quality opponent.
How quickly will Trevor Lawrence rebound? The reigning AFC Offensive Player of the Week had his worst game of the season, losing four fumbles and tossing an interception. While growing pains are still expected for the 22-year-old signal-caller, the Jags need him to play like the top-end talent he is more consistently to reach their ceiling this year. — Tim McManus
Next game: vs. Texans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Titans
What to know: The Titans felt Derrick Henry was close to getting on track entering Week 4 against the Colts, and it turned out they were right. Henry gained 99 yards in the first half and scored his longest touchdown of the season in the first quarter when he scooted 19 yards on the second drive of the game. It was the fifth time in the past seven games that Henry rushed for 100 or more yards against the Colts. The Colts had allowed a league-best 2.6 yards per carry before Henry gashed them for 114 yards on 22 carries (5.2 average).
What is up with the second-half collapses? The Titans have been outscored 64-7 in the second half this season, including 7-0 on Sunday. The momentum shifted back to the Titans’ favor on Indianapolis’ last drive, when Denico Autry got a sack to force a 51-yard field goal attempt that Chase McLaughlin missed. But the fact remains: Tennessee’s offense has to find a way to produce in the second half. The Titans came out flat on their first series of the third quarter and had to punt after three plays. The Colts scored on the very next drive, bringing life to the crowd at Lucas Oil Field. Although they’re now 2-2, the Titans have to start putting teams away when the opportunity arises. — Turron Davenport
Next game: at Commanders (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Colts
What to know: The Colts fell to 0-2-1 in the AFC South after their third division game in four weeks, and already it looks as though they might be facing a steep climb to win their first division crown since 2014. The Colts have lost games to the Jaguars and Titans and tied the Texans. Now, they face Jacksonville and Tennessee again within the next three weeks. The Colts’ lack of consistency on either offense or defense was apparent in this game, particularly for an offense that committed three costly turnovers.
Is the Colts’ running game broken?Jonathan Taylor, the 2021 NFL rushing leader, was bottled up again in what is becoming a concerning trend for Indianapolis. Taylor finished with 42 yards on 20 carries (2.1 yards per attempt) as he was consistently hit in the backfield because of a porous offensive line. The Colts’ offense was built around its productive running game, but if Taylor can’t get going, a disproportionate amount of the burden will fall on the passing game. — Stephen Holder
Next game: at Broncos (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Falcons
What to know: The Falcons were 7-2 in one-possession games last year. One-score games are not the easiest way to live in the NFL, but with a team in transition, the Falcons are .500 with a two-game winning streak in such games in 2022. It’s still a young team, but after wins over the Seahawks and Browns with a similar style — balanced rushing and passing with aggressive defense when it matters — perhaps Atlanta’s young team is figuring things out.
Is the Atlanta Falcons‘ run game for real?Cordarrelle Patterson entered Sunday questionable with a knee injury. By the end of the game, the only question was how complete the run game is with or without him. Patterson’s backups were effective on Sunday. Rookie Tyler Allgeier ran for 84 yards. Practice squad call-up Caleb Huntley ran for 56 and converted cornerback Avery Williams had a 21-yard carry. They all offer a different type of rusher and combined for the Falcons’ second 200-yard rushing game in four contests. — Michael Rothstein
Next game: at Buccaneers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Browns
What to know: Blown coverages doomed the Browns in a Week 2 loss to the New York Jets. A key fourth-quarter miscue in coverage doomed Cleveland again Sunday. With three minutes to play, the game tied and the Falcons at their own 9, Olamide Zaccheaus dashed wide open across the middle of the field for a 42-yard gain. And a face-mask penalty on Denzel Ward put Atlanta in range for the game-winning field goal.
Can the Browns’ defense get healthy up front? With the Browns missing almost their entire defensive line, including Myles Garrett, Atlanta ran the ball at will in the fourth quarter. Garrett and pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney should be back soon. But at 2-2 and facing one of the toughest remaining schedules in the league, Cleveland’s season already could be teetering. — Jake Trotter
Next game: vs. Chargers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Cowboys
What to know: The Cowboys’ defense is legitimate. For the first time since 1973, the defense has not allowed 20 points in any of their first four games. The Cowboys have allowed one touchdown in each of their games. On Sunday, they sacked Carson Wentz twice, intercepted him twice and harassed him all game long. So good was the Dallas defense that even when Washington started a drive on the Cowboys’ 30 in the fourth quarter, it got a stop with a Trevon Diggs’ pass deflection in the end zone on a fourth-down play. Playing without Dak Prescott the past three games, the defense knew it needed to carry the day. It did … again.
Why hurry up Dak Prescott’s return? This has nothing to do with Cooper Rush becoming the first Cowboys quarterback to win his first four starts and everything to do with science. Prescott had surgery on his right thumb on Sept. 12. He has not thrown more than a couple of flips here and there after getting a stitch removed on Sept. 26 (yes, a single stitch.) Will a couple of practices be enough for him to play next week versus the Los Angeles Rams? By winning these three games, the Cowboys have bought themselves time with Prescott’s return. — Todd Archer
Next game: at Rams (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Commanders
What to know: Washington isn’t just off to a bad start — it’s a bad team. That’s not where the Commanders should be in coach Ron Rivera’s third season. Sunday, there were too many penalties (11 for 136 yards; including two that wiped out interceptions) and a failure to win enough one-on-one matchups. Corner William Jackson III committed three penalties; one wiped out a pick, two others combined for 65 yards. Yes, it’s still early and Washington can recover. But the Commanders haven’t yet shown that they can be a consistent team, and that’s a huge concern. The problems run deep.
What has happened to the passing attack? After scoring 28 points in Week 1 — with quarterback Carson Wentz throwing four touchdown passes — the Washington offense, and passing game in particular, has been mostly bad. It averaged 3.6 yards per pass Sunday. The Commanders still have talent at receiver, but Wentz and his protection have not helped. Washington’s line loses too many individual pass-rush matchups; Wentz gets sped up too often by the rush, and too often it leads to inaccuracy. It’s a bad combination. — John Keim
Next game: vs. Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
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CeeDee Lamb runs a nice route into space and walks into the end zone for the Cowboys.
Bills
What to know: The Bills ended their seven-game streak stretching back to 2020 of losing one-score games thanks to a bounce-back second half on the road. After going down 17 points to the Ravens in the second quarter, quarterback Josh Allen led Buffalo on a quick scoring drive at the end of the first half and then scored on three of four possessions in the second half. The defense also played a significant role, holding the Ravens scoreless in the second half. The effort was led by safety Jordan Poyer‘s two interceptions in the fourth quarter.
Can the Bills find a way to run the football consistently? Coming into the game, the Bills were worst in the league at run block win rate (62.2%) and struggled to get the running game going outside of Allen. That streak only continued against the Ravens, as Allen had a team-high 70 rushing yards, and it played a significant role in the team’s early offensive struggles. The Bills went into halftime with 34 rushing yards and finished with a combined 55 yards from their running backs on the ground. — Alaina Getzenberg
Next game: vs. Steelers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Ravens
What to know: For the second time this season, Baltimore lost at home after leading by 17 or more points. The Ravens held a 20-3 lead late in the second quarter before watching Buffalo score 20 straight points. Baltimore became the first team in eight years to lose multiple games at home when leading by 17 or more points. In Week 2, Tua Tagovailoa threw four touchdown passes against the Ravens’ defense in the fourth quarter. This time, Lamar Jackson and the offense disappeared in the second half and couldn’t punch the ball into the end zone in the red zone. The Ravens are 2-2 and host a Bengals team that will have 10 days’ rest.
Why didn’t the Ravens kick the field goal? The Ravens went for the touchdown on fourth down from the Buffalo 2-yard line instead of kicking the go-ahead field goal. Jackson was pressured and threw an interception in the end zone, keeping the game tied at 20 with four minutes remaining. The Bills then marched down the field to kick the winning, 21-yard field goal as time expired. Ravens cornerback Marcus Peters had to be pulled away from yelling at coach John Harbaugh before the winning kick, throwing his helmet down on the sideline. This has been a frustrating start for Baltimore. — Jamison Hensley
Next game: vs. Bengals (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Chargers
What to know: A week after an embarrassing loss to the Jaguars, the Chargers corrected course, albeit in less-than-convincing fashion against the Texans. Equally important as the win, the Bolts appeared to escape NRG Stadium without suffering any further significant injuries. The offensive line — behind rookie left tackle Jamaree Salyer making his first career start — provided solid protection for Justin Herbert as the franchise quarterback plays through fractured rib cartilage.
Who are the Chargers? Nearly one-quarter through the season — and after several significant injuries that included losing left tackle Rashawn Slater for the season, placing edge rusher Joey Bosa on injured reserve indefinitely and playing three games without wide receiver Keenan Allen because of a hamstring injury — it remains unclear whether a Super Bowl-caliber roster on paper will materialize on the field. — Lindsey Thiry
Next game: at Browns (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Texans
What to know: The Texans trailed 27-7 at halftime, but quarterback Davis Mills ignited a comeback to bring Houston within three with eight minutes remaining. Mills and the offense started slowly, as he threw for 76 yards with an interception. But in the second half, the second-year quarterback had 170 yards and two touchdowns (and another interception). His most impressive play was when he uncorked a 58-yard bomb to wideout Nico Collins in the early moments of the fourth quarter. Mills capped that drive with an 18-yard strike to Brandin Cooks. Mills has been up and down but continues to tease promise.
Defense in a funk? After starting the first two weeks holding their opponents to 16 points per game, the Texans have allowed 57 points over the past two. They allowed 34 points and 420 yards Sunday as quarterback Justin Herbert threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns on 27-of-39 passing (69.2%). They rarely pressured Herbert, as he was sacked only once. Coming in, the Texans’ strong point was their pass defense — as they were second in allowed quarterback completion percentage (55%) and fourth in sacks (10) — but they couldn’t bail them out this time. — DJ Bien-Aime
Next game: at Jaguars (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Jets
What to know: QB Zach Wilson overcame three quarters of rust in his 2022 debut and delivered the biggest comeback win of his career. He showed guts and poise, qualities he often didn’t show as a rookie. He made big throw after big throw, rallying the Jets to 81- and 65-yard touchdown drives to erase a 10-point deficit. He could’ve folded after two interceptions, but he made plays behind a makeshift offensive line and showed nice accuracy on downfield throws. This is what the Jets envisioned when they drafted him second overall in 2021. His surgically repaired knee was no factor; he actually showed terrific mobility. A brilliant day. — Rich Cimini
Can the Jets overcome all of their offensive line injuries? It will be a minor miracle if they can. Rookie RT Max Mitchell (knee) was the latest go down, as he was carted off in the second quarter. With Mekhi Becton, Duane Brown and George Fant already on injured reserve, the Jets are down to their fifth- and sixth-string tackles. The line was so messed up that RG Alijah Vera-Tucker started the game at left tackle — a surprise move. Brown is due to come off IR this week, but he may need a week or two to get ready. It’s a bad situation, one that is bound to impact Wilson’s progress. — Rich Cimini
Next game: vs. Dolphins (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Steelers
What to know: The Kenny Pickett era has begun — or has it? The rookie QB from Pitt came off the bench to provide a temporary spark for the Steelers in the third quarter, as he ran for two touchdowns and ignited a moribund offense. He threw only three incompletions — and they were all interceptions, the second-to-last one setting up the Jets’ game-winning TD. So there was some good from Pickett, but a lot of rough edges. Clearly, he ignited the offense and the crowd, but the turnovers were massive. — Rich Cimini
Pickett or Mitch Trubisky? Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has a decision to make, one that will chart the course for the season. One factor to consider: The next four games are tough, as the Steelers face the Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Eagles. At 1-3, the Steelers can’t afford too many more losses. Tomlin has to weigh Trubisky’s experience and their upcoming opponents versus Pickett’s upside. — Rich Cimini
Next game: at Bills (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
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Breece Hall barely gets into the end zone before losing the game for the game-wining TD.
Giants
What to know: The Giants are 3-1. Who could have predicted that? But they were again not overly impressive against the Bears on Sunday and still have questions to answer. Aside from running back Saquon Barkley (146 rushing yards) and scheming to use quarterback Daniel Jones’ legs, the Giants don’t have much offensively. Their wide receivers combined for three receptions and 25 yards. Kenny Golladay was catchless before leaving late with a knee injury. The real tests for the Giants come in the next two weeks: They face Green Bay in London in Week 5 and then host Baltimore.
Who will start at quarterback next week in London against the Packers? Jones hurt his left ankle on a third-quarter sack, but was forced back into the game when backup Tyrod Taylor was evaluated for a concussion after a fourth-quarter run. Jones was clearly compromised and did not attempt to throw a pass for the remainder of the contest. After hurting the ankle, he tried to run sprints on the sideline, but the medical team determined he should be removed from the game. Both Jones and Taylor could be in doubt for next week. Davis Webb, the No. 3 quarterback, is currently on the practice squad and was not active Sunday. It’s going to be a situation to watch this week. — Jordan Raanan
Next game: at Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Bears
What to know:Michael Badgley was added to the Bears’ roster only 24 hours before he was counted on to deliver all of Chicago’s points on Sunday, going 4-for-4 on field goals in place of kicker Cairo Santos, who was ruled out for personal reasons. The kicking game was the most consistent phase in the Bears’ loss on a day when the offense showed no ability to score touchdowns and blew three opportunities when it reached the red zone. Justin Fields’ connection with receiver Darnell Mooney (four catches, 94 yards) was the best it has looked all season, and there were moments when the second-year quarterback looked more comfortable throwing the ball. But Fields still took five sacks and completed just 11 of 20 passes. Those 11 passes were the most he has completed in a game all season.
How can the Bears get their second-half defense to show up sooner? Jones (two rushing TDs) and Barkley (146 rushing yards) ripped Chicago in half. The Bears followed up their abysmal performance against the run in Green Bay two weeks ago by allowing 262 rushing yards to the Giants. Chicago bit too many times on play-action but figured out some ways to adjust at halftime. The Bears still have not allowed a touchdown in the second half of games, and two of safety Eddie Jackson’s three interceptions have also come after the half. Can they learn how to play this way from the start against Minnesota next Sunday? — Courtney Cronin
Next game: at Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Seahawks
What to know:Geno Smith is playing like an above-average starting quarterback — and the Seahawks have needed every bit of that, considering how badly their defense is struggling. Both trends continued Sunday. Smith threw for two touchdown passes and ran for another. He entered the day leading the NFL in completion percentage by a wide margin and connected on 23 of 30 attempts for 320 yards in what has become a typically efficient outing. With Rashaad Penny and the run game coming alive in a big way, the Seahawks hung 555 yards of total offense — the fifth most in franchise history — on the Lions. But instead of winning in a runaway, they needed a second long Penny TD run and a recovered onside kick to close it out thanks to a defense that is still allowing way too many big plays.
Can the Seahawks turn their defense around again? They did it the past two years, recovering from brutal starts on that side of the ball. They’re going to have to do it again if they want to make anything of this season. They’ll need to do it without safety Jamal Adams, who’s out with a quad tendon injury. And they need to do it in a hurry because Smith — or any other NFL quarterback — can’t be counted on to carry this much of the load every week. Sunday’s game was supposed to represent a break for the Seahawks’ defense, with the Lions missing three offensive playmakers in D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown and DJ Chark. Instead, it was arguably their worst outing of the season with more missed tackles, blown coverages, costly penalties and losses in one-on-one matchups. — Brady Henderson
Next game: at Saints (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Lions
What to know: Although the Lions have fallen to 1-3 after another one-score loss, running back Jamaal Williams has proved to be a reliable option. Without his backfield mate D’Andre Swift (ankle/shoulder), Williams scored two rushing touchdowns again — including a 51-yard score — en route to 108 yards on 19 carries. He set a team record, becoming the first Lions player with six rushing touchdowns through the first four weeks of a season, and credits the early production to his daily routine of taking care of his body.
Should T.J. Hockenson continue to be more involved when the starters return? Through Week 3, Hockenson had just 82 receiving yards and a touchdown. Against Seattle, without wide receivers DJ Chark (ankle) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle), Hockenson had a season-high eight catches for 179 yards and two touchdowns along with a 2-point conversion. With so much talent on offense, quarterback Jared Goff has targeted other options more often but should consider getting Hockenson more involved moving forward through creative playcalls from offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. — Eric Woodyard
Next game: at Patriots (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Vikings
What to know: The Vikings are 3-1 even though their offense and defense, overhauled in the transition to new coach Kevin O’Connell, are very much works in progress. Sunday’s game in London was won by their special teams — place-kicker Greg Joseph kicked five field goals, including what proved to be the game winner from 47 yards out — and was sealed only when Saints place-kicker Will Lutz hit the upright and crossbar from 61 yards away. Meanwhile, the offense has been disjointed and has struggled to get snaps off before the play clock. And the defense has given up huge chunks of yards at inopportune times.
Is quarterback Kirk Cousins going to be able to sharpen up in this offense? Cousins had a decent line Sunday, completing 25 of 38 passes for 273 yards, and made the key pass in the game to set up the game-winning field goal. But he missed receiver Justin Jefferson open twice in the end zone and has looked uncomfortable in the pocket in this new scheme. — Kevin Seifert
Next game: vs. Bears (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Saints
What to know: Even a quarterback change couldn’t save the Saints, as their problems followed them to London. The Saints struggled on special teams coverage and fumbled a punt, and quarterback Andy Dalton had a strip sack at the end of the first half, giving the Vikings a short field in a close game. The Saints have some persistent issues that have followed them throughout the season and prevented them from winning.
What do the Saints do at quarterback going forward? Dalton certainly didn’t come in and fix the Saints’ problems, especially considering the outcome was ultimately the same for the past three games. He did get the offense moving enough to consider what the Saints might do while Jameis Winston heals from his back issue that he’s dealt with for the past month. If Winston is healthy enough to play next week, do the Saints play Winston when he’s not 100 percent or try to move on with Dalton going forward? — Katherine Terrell
Next game: vs. Seahawks (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Thursday
Bengals
What to know: Cincinnati’s biggest strength currently is its defense. The Bengals were outgained by Miami but were bolstered by two interceptions from safety Vonn Bell. Cincinnati is allowing the second-fewest touchdowns per drive. The unit that carried the Bengals through the 2021 postseason is good enough to do it again in this season.
Chase had four catches for 81 yards, but teams are defending Chase to not let him rack up big games against them. Miami constantly rolled a safety to Chase’s side of the field and forced Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow to find other receiving targets. That’s why Tee Higgins had a massive performance — seven catches for 124 yards and a touchdown. — Ben Baby
Next game: at Ravens (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Dolphins
What to know: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was taken to the hospital after a scary hit rendered him concussed. It was the second straight game that Tagovailoa’s head hit the ground hard and sparked an NFL Players Association-initiated investigation into whether proper protocols were followed — as well as an amendment to the protocols themselves. The Dolphins’ defense played well, all things considered, but it was difficult for anyone to focus on anything else after watching Tagovailoa leave the field on a stretcher. There is no timetable for his return, per head coach Mike McDaniel, which from a football perspective, hangs a dark cloud over what had otherwise been an exciting start to the season.
Can this team stay hot with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback?
We saw the good and the bad from Bridgewater in his two quarters of work Thursday. He hit Tyreek Hill on a pass that traveled 64.1 air yards, per NFL Next Gen Stats, but he also threw a back-breaking interception on what could have been the Dolphins’ go-ahead drive. He’s a veteran who has been in situations like these before and won’t panic when the lights come on. Miami has an easy schedule over its next seven games, playing just two playoff teams from a season ago. And with a defense that’s playing better than the stats suggest, Bridgewater can theoretically keep the Dolphins in the playoff hunt while they exercise patience with Tagovailoa. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
The Week 4 NFL schedule for the 2022 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football intel, as well. Finally, Seth Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 4 slate, including our first London game of the season, Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson, Jaguars coach Doug Pederson facing his old team in Philadelphia, Derrick Henry vs. Jonathan Taylor and a big Chiefs-Bucs meeting on Sunday night. It all culminates with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Rams and the 49ers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
What to watch for: The Saints could be relying heavily on wide receiver Chris Olave, who was just named the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Month. He has seen a large amount of targets recently and that should continue with wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry dealing with injuries. Quarterback Jameis Winston‘s back injury also continues to linger, which has contributed to offensive struggles this season. Perhaps a meeting with Minnesota is just what New Orleans needs. The Vikings have allowed 1,240 yards this season, the third most in the NFL, and at least 300 scrimmage yards in 11 consecutive games. — Katherine Terrell
Bold prediction: Saints CB Marshon Lattimore will hold Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson to less than 50 yards receiving. Lattimore uses the same kind of close-in, physical approach that Eagles CB Darius Slay and Lions CB Jeff Okudah have utilized to slow down Jefferson in the past two weeks. Until Jefferson proves he can beat that type of approach, opponents will continue using it. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: The Vikings have 13 total penalties through Week 3, second fewest in the NFL this season. But the Saints have 28 — tied for the second most.
What to know for fantasy: “Air yards” are not a fantasy stat, but they do have a way of hinting at upside. Olave leads the league in that category … by 164! See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Favorites are 18-12 against the spread (ATS) in London games. Overs and unders are split 15-15. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Vikings 23, Saints 20 Walder’s pick: Vikings 27, Saints 13 FPI prediction: NO, 51.3% (by an average of 0.4 points)
What to watch for:Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are two of the NFL’s most impactful running quarterbacks. The Bills are 12-3 (.800) when Allen runs for over 50 yards, and the Ravens are 16-1 (.941) when Jackson goes for 90 or more yards rushing. Allen and Jackson are among the favorites for NFL MVP this season because they are two of the three quarterbacks to account for over 83% of their team’s total yards (passing and rushing) through the first three games. — Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs will have over 125 receiving yards for the second time this season, while the team’s receiving group deals with multiple injuries. Jake Kumerow (high ankle), is not expected to play, nor is Gabe Davis (ankle) trending in a positive direction for the game against the Ravens. Allen connecting with Diggs at a high level would go a long way in the Bills coming away with a win. Baltimore has allowed a league-high 95 total completions and 353.3 passing yards per game, which should provide opportunities for the Bills’ passing offense despite the injuries. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Buffalo has allowed just 173 total rushing yards, the second fewest in the NFL (Jaguars, 165) — including seven rushes for 20 yards by opposing quarterbacks.
What to know for fantasy: No team has allowed more deep completions this season than the Ravens, and Gabe Davis’ average depth of target for his career is over 14 yards. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Baltimore is 12-2-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 since 2019. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bills 37, Ravens 30 Walder’s pick: Ravens 33, Bills 30 FPI prediction: BAL, 55.5% (by an average of 1.6 points)
What to watch for: Doug Pederson, the only Super Bowl-winning coach in Eagles history, makes his return to Philadelphia as head man of the Jags. QB Trevor Lawrence has grown leaps and bounds under him. The reigning AFC Offensive Player of the Week has completed 69.4% of his passes with six touchdowns to just one interception. The coach-QB tandem will face an Eagles defense that ranks sixth in pass defense (186.7 YPG) and second in sacks (12). “I have a very high opinion of Doug,” said Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. “He’s a very good playcaller. He doesn’t have a lot of tendencies. You can’t bank on certain things coming. He’s doing a good job with the quarterback playing extremely fast.” — Tim McManus
Bold prediction: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts will rush for 100 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars’ defense has been very good through three games, but it hasn’t faced a mobile QB like Hurts yet (Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan and Justin Herbert with broken rib cartilage). While the pass rush has been good (21 QB hits, 7 sacks), Hurts’ ability to escape pressure will allow him to make some plays with his legs, especially if the Jaguars are in man coverage. — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: Hurts ranks first in yards per attempt (9.35) this season, and his 13 offensive plays (12 pass, 1 rush) of 20-plus yards are tied for most in the NFL.
What to know for fantasy: The Jaguars have been a great surprise thus far, and running back James Robinson is a big reason. Coming off the Achilles injury, Robinson ranks third at the position in fantasy points this season, trailing only Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Philadelphia and Miami are the only teams to start 3-0 both outright and ATS. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 31, Eagles 28 Walder’s pick: Eagles 27, Jaguars 21 FPI prediction: PHI, 67.3% (by an average of 5.1 points)
What to watch for: These are two of the best rushing teams in the NFL through four weeks. The Bears with the duo of David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert are second in the NFL, averaging 186.7 yards per contest. Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale considers Chicago’s running game “elite.” The Giants, meanwhile, are riding Saquon Barkley. They’re fourth in the NFL, averaging 169.3 yards per game on the ground. This is expected to be the week’s lowest-scoring game with the over/under at 39.5 according to Caesars Sportsbook. — Jordan Raanan
Bold prediction: The Bears leave MetLife Stadium with three sacks — matching half of their current total through three weeks — including two from Robert Quinn. Daniel Jones was pressured 24 times by Dallas, the most pressure a Giants QB has faced since 2009. Chicago’s pass rush hasn’t been all that effective (33 pass block wins, ranked 31st in the NFL), but this is the week it finally gets home with a heavy dose of new-look pressures and blitzes typically not seen from this scheme. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Bears have attempted 45 passes this season, fewest of any team through three games since the 1982 Patriots (44). Justin Fields has been intercepted on 8.9% of his attempts this season, highest in the NFL. And his 23.0 QBR ranks 31st among the 32 qualified QBs this season (only Baker Mayfield is worse).
What to know for fantasy: Don’t call it a comeback. Barkley is touching the ball 22 times a game and is on pace for over 2,000 total yards. For most, that would be the product of a small sample size, but for Barkley, it’s just pacing himself for a repeat of his rookie season in 2018. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: New York is 6-0 ATS on short rest since 2020. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Giants 17, Bears 14 Walder’s pick: Giants 20, Bears 9 FPI prediction: NYG, 65.0% (by an average of 4.4 points)
What to watch for: The Cowboys have won seven straight NFC East games as they host the Commanders at AT&T Stadium. Cooper Rush will look to become the first Cowboys quarterback to win the first four starts of his career. While the pass game has been efficient, the run game has helped, too, with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard picking up 274 yards on 52 carries in Rush’s starts. Carson Wentz has a 4-4 record against Dallas in his career, but he is coming off a game in which he was sacked nine times. The Cowboys enter Week 3 with an NFL-best 11 sacks and have three players — Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Dorance Armstrong — with six sacks. — Todd Archer
Bold prediction: Speedy Dallas receiver Michael Gallup will make a big splash in his debut. He is returning from a torn ACL and will take advantage of a Washington defense that has yielded big plays by catching a 40-yard touchdown pass. The Commanders have allowed an NFL-high five passes of 40-plus yards and 12 plays overall of that length. They played better defensively in Week 3 vs. the Eagles, but big plays remain the issue. — John Keim
Stat to know: Washington receiver Terry McLaurin is coming off his 11th career game with 100-plus receiving yards, but he has never had one against the Cowboys.
What to know for fantasy: The Commanders have coughed up a 100-yard receiver in each of the first three weeks this season, and CeeDee Lamb was a dropped pass away from a career night against the Giants on Monday Night Football last week. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Ten of the past 13 meetings have gone over the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Commanders 24, Cowboys 20 Walder’s pick: Cowboys 19, Commanders 16 FPI prediction: WSH, 53.3% (by an average of 1.1 points)
What to watch for: This game, in theory, will have two of the NFL’s top three rushers — Cleveland’s Nick Chubb (No. 1, 341 yards) and Atlanta’s Cordarrelle Patterson (No. 3, 302 yards). Patterson, though, didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, so that could take some luster out of the matchup if he can’t go. These two teams have some interesting ties, too, including both Falcons offensive coordinator Dave Ragone and defensive coordinator Dean Pees growing up in Ohio as Browns fans. — Michael Rothstein
Bold prediction: Atlanta tight end Kyle Pitts will double his career TD reception total, with two against the Browns. The Falcons, and their underrated offense, will hang around with Cleveland into the fourth quarter. — Jake Trotter
Stat to know: The Browns have scored on 14 consecutive red zone drives dating back to last season, the third-longest active streak in the NFL behind the Cowboys (24) and Titans (16).
What to know for fantasy:Amari Cooper dropped 23.1 fantasy points on the Steelers last week, giving him consecutive 20-point games for the first time since Weeks 5-6 of the 2016 season. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Both teams have gone over the total in each of their first three games. The only other team 3-0 to the over is Detroit. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Browns 31, Falcons 23 Walder’s pick: Falcons 22, Browns 17 FPI prediction: ATL, 50.1% (by an average of 0.1 points)
What to watch for: Jets QB Zach Wilson is making his season debut. The Steelers’ lack of experience against him, along with his mobility, create challenges for a defense that’s still struggling to find an identity without T.J. Watt. The Steelers have just two total sacks since Watt went out with the pectoral injury, and the run defense is again ranked near the bottom of the league after giving up 171 rushing yards to the Browns. — Brooke Pryor
Bold prediction: Rookie running back Breece Hall will record the first 100-yard rushing day of his career. After throwing a league-high 155 times in the first three games, the Jets want to be balanced with Wilson back. Michael Carter, and especially Hall, will be the beneficiary of strategic shift, as they run through the Steelers’ suspect run defense. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Steelers have a 33% third-down conversion rate this season, the second worst in the AFC after the Texans. They went 1-9 on third-down conversions against the Browns in the Week 3 loss — tied for the third-worst conversion rate since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007.
What to know for fantasy: New year, same problem. Last season, Najee Harris was king of volume, but his carries were only so valuable because he was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 30.6% of his totes. This season … 35%. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Pittsburgh is 16-1 outright with extra rest since 2017 (8-7-2 ATS). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Steelers 28, Jets 17 Walder’s pick: Steelers 27, Jets 20 FPI prediction: PIT, 67.9% (by an average of 5.4 points)
What to watch for: A hobbled Lions team could limp into the Week 4 matchup after missing several key players throughout practice during the week, including running back D’Andre Swift (ankle/shoulder), tight end T.J. Hockenson (foot) and wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) and Josh Reynolds (ankle). Both teams are entering the contest with matching 1-2 records, trying to bounce back after close, one-score losses the previous week. An interesting matchup to watch is Lions cornerback Jeff Okudah against DK Metcalf. The Seahawks receiver recently said Okudah isn’t really “locking people down” and has a safety under helping him. — Eric Woodyard
Bold prediction: The Seahawks will hold Detroit to under 115 rushing yards. That qualifies as bold given that Seattle has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game this season, including 189 and 179 the past two weeks. They might get a break Sunday with the Lions’ Swift injured, and they could get a boost with outside linebackers Boye Mafe and Darryl Johnson playing more on early downs in place of Darrell Taylor, who has struggled against the run. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: The Lions are scoring 31.7 PPG — the second most in the NFL — and are allowing 31.0 PPG, the most in the NFL.
What to know for fantasy: Through three weeks, both Detroit running backs rank as top-10 players at the position, but only one of them will be active this week. Jamaal Williams and his four rushing touchdowns are set to take center stage with Swift’s shoulder injury set to sideline him for at least the short term. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Detroit is 3-0 ATS this season and 14-6 ATS under Dan Campbell. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Lions 31, Seahawks 21 Walder’s pick: Lions 30, Seahawks 15 FPI prediction: DET, 65.3% (by an average of 4.5 points)
What to watch for: The Colts currently have a minus-3 turnover margin, an alarming number for a team that ranked first in this category in 2021 and second in 2020. There are two reasons: Matt Ryan has had an exceedingly rare stretch, turning the ball over six times in three games. And the defense — after finishing last season second in takeaways — has produced just three turnovers to date. Alternatively, Titans QB Ryan Tannehill has thrown just three interceptions through three games. If the Colts’ defense can somehow force turnovers — and not commit turnovers — they will have a better chance at their second win of the season. — Stephen Holder
Bold prediction: Titans running back Derrick Henry will get his first 100-yard rushing performance this season. That’s bold considering the Colts are allowing a league-low 2.6 yards per carry. Henry had a season-high 65 yards after contact last week. Offensive coordinator Todd Downing feels Henry is on the verge of breaking off a long run if “they can finish blocks, that last shove, last bit of effort to will spring him into the secondary.” — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: Ryan has been sacked 12 times, the fourth most in the NFL so far this season. That’s the second-most sacks he has taken in his team’s first three games of a season in his career (13 in 2011). That is also the second-most sacks taken by a Colts QB since the franchise moved to Indianapolis in 1984 (Jim Harbaugh took 16 sacks in 1997).
What to know for fantasy: It might not be what you signed up for, but don’t panic … Jonathan Taylor has 14.8 more fantasy points through three games this season than he did during his historic 2021 campaign. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Eight straight Indianapolis games have gone under the total, including all three this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Colts 27, Titans 24 Walder’s pick: Colts 20, Titans 17 FPI prediction: IND, 60.4% (by an average of 3.0 points)
What to watch for: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL (910), but the Texans’ pass defense has been exceptional. They’ve held opposing quarterbacks’ completion percentage to 55.1%, which is the second best in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. The Texans have 10 sacks on the year, coming in at fourth best. The coverage in the secondary has been stout, as quarterbacks are completing only 44% of their passes when targeting cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. This should be interesting as the Chargers are coming off a down week, losing to the Jaguars in Week 3. –– DJ Bien-Aime
Bold prediction: The Chargers will clamp down on defense and keep the Texans out of the end zone. This is bold considering the Chargers’ defense is averaging the most points allowed in the AFC at 28 per game. But the Texans are among teams who are struggling to score, averaging 16.3 points per game. Watch for the Bolts’ defense behind Khalil Mack and Derwin James to play inspired, wanting to prove that it should not be counted out despite losing star edge rusher Joey Bosa indefinitely. — Lindsey Thiry
Stat to know: Los Angeles’ Austin Ekeler is the only running back in the NFL who is currently leading his team in both targets (22) and receptions (21).
What to know for fantasy:Dameon Pierce got 87% of the Texans’ RB carries last week in Chicago. Not a bad role to take into a matchup with the Chargers, the third-worst defense in terms of running back yards per carry since the beginning of last season. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Los Angeles is 0-3 outright as a road favorite under coach Brandon Staley. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chargers 31, Texans 20 Walder’s pick: Chargers 26, Texans 10 FPI prediction: LAC, 70.4% (by an average of 6.3 points)
What to watch for: Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield ranks 31st in the NFL in completion percentage (51.9), and a big issue has been poor footwork due to a lack of full trust in his offensive line that has allowed nine sacks. He should have more confidence going up against an Arizona defense that ranks 31st in sacks with only two through three games. — David Newton
Bold prediction: With the weather playing a factor, the Cardinals will commit to the run, and James Conner will have 100 yards for the first time this season and Kyler Murray will eclipse 50 for the first time. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know:Christian McCaffrey has two straight games of 100-plus rush yards after going 18 games without reaching 100. He has not had three straight 100-yard rushing games since Weeks 8-10 in 2019.
What to know for fantasy: It’s hard to know what will happen in four weeks when DeAndre Hopkins returns after Week 6, but Marquise Brown is coming off a career day and is the ninth-highest-scoring fantasy receiver this season (just ahead of first-round picks Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams). See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Arizona has won seven straight games outright as a road underdog, tied for the longest streak since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cardinals 28, Panthers 17 Walder’s pick: Cardinals 31, Panthers 14 FPI prediction: CAR, 52.8% (by an average of 0.8 points)
What to watch for: There are some telling streaks at play: Aaron Rodgers has won five straight games against AFC opponents,; the Packers have won 14 straight regular-season home games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL; and Patriots likely starting quarterback Brian Hoyer has lost 11 consecutive starts, which is the longest streak among quarterbacks currently on NFL rosters. — Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: Patriots running backs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson will come close to totaling 200 rushing yards between them. This will have to be the formula for New England to have a chance to pull the upset. The Packers have shown some vulnerability against the run, with the Bears totaling 180 yards on 27 carries in Week 2, and the Vikings with 126 yards on 28 carries in Week 1. But here’s a potential problem for New England: With Rodgers completing 75% of his passes in back-to-back games, the possibility of falling behind early could make the Patriots more one-dimensional than they desire. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: The Patriots’ defense owns a 9.3% sack rate this season, which is the third best in the NFL. And Rodgers has taken eight sacks in three games this season.
What to know for fantasy:Romeo Doubs saw 23.5% of the targets last weekend in Tampa Bay, the highest rate for a Packer this season and potentially a sign of things to come for the promising rookie. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Green Bay is 17-7 ATS as a home favorite under coach Matt LaFleur, including 7-1 ATS since the start of last season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Packers 28, Patriots 13 Walder’s pick: Packers 24, Patriots 0 FPI prediction: GB, 88.8% (by an average of 14.7 points)
What to watch for: Raiders edge rusher Chandler Jones has zero sacks through three games, and is fast becoming a target for impatient fans. Keep an eye, then, on the four-time Pro Bowler possibly getting untracked against his favorite target in Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson. Jones has sacked Wilson 16.5 times in his career, the most sacks Jones has against any one QB. It’s a rivalry that dates to Jones’ days in Arizona and Wilson’s in Seattle. “He thought he could get away from me, leaving [the NFC West],” Jones said with a laugh back in March, “but I’m right here with him again. So, that’s going to be fun, getting after him a little bit.” — Paul Gutierrez
Bold prediction: Fire the confetti cannons in Denver, Broncos quarterback Wilson will have his first multiple-touchdown game with the team after having just two passing touchdowns over the first three games. And while that might not move the needle on the “bold” meter in some NFL outposts, the Broncos keep saying they’re close to something that resembles the offense they hoped to have when they exited the preseason. Plus, the Raiders have surrendered four pass plays of at least 30 yards in the first three games to go with five passing touchdowns by opposing quarterbacks. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Broncos are averaging 14.3 PPG, second worst in the NFL. Forty-three total points in the first three games are their fewest since 2006.
What to know for fantasy: The Denver passing game has yet to really hit its stride, and yet, only four receivers in the entire league have more receiving yards than Courtland Sutton. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: All three Denver games have gone under the total by over 10 points this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Broncos 26, Raiders 17 Walder’s pick: Raiders 30, Broncos 19 FPI prediction: LV, 58.3% (by an average of 2.4 points)
What to watch for: The Bucs will have wide receivers Mike Evans (suspension) and Julio Jones (knee) back this week, with wide receiver Chris Godwin (hamstring) and left tackle Donovan Smith (elbow) also possibilities. Having scored only three offensive touchdowns in three games so far this year, they need all hands on deck to keep pace with a Chiefs team averaging 29.3 points per game. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs’ rebuilt offensive line is eager to show this wasn’t the same group from Super Bowl LV — their two sacks given up are tied for fewest in the league right now. — Jenna Laine
Bold prediction: The sixth meeting between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes will be the lowest scoring yet. The Chiefs and Bucs are struggling to score, with the Chiefs’ offense producing just 37 points in the past two games and the Bucs averaging just 17 points per game through the first three. These teams don’t look like they will combine for 39 points, the lowest output so far for a Brady-Mahomes game. It certainly won’t approach the 83 points the two generated in a 2018 game between the Chiefs and Patriots. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: The Buccaneers are looking to avoid a fourth straight game held under 20 points. Only one Brady-led team has been held under 20 points in four straight games — the 2002 Patriots.
What to know for fantasy:Leonard Fournette got loose in Week 1 for 127 yards on 21 carries. In the two games since (Mike Evans was ejected in one and suspended for the other), he has picked up just 100 yards on 36 carries. The Bucs welcome their WR1 back this week with the hopes of reopening the lanes that were there in the Week 1 win at Dallas. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: All three Tampa Bay games have gone under the total this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Chiefs 21 Walder’s pick: Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 17 FPI prediction: TB, 63.3% (by an average of 3.9 points)
What to watch for: The 49ers have had the Rams’ number in recent years, winning six straight regular-season games, but the Rams won the one that mattered most in January, advancing to the Super Bowl with a fourth-quarter surge in the NFC Championship Game. After a road loss last week in Denver, the Niners are in danger of falling two games back of the Rams in the NFC West with a loss here. To avoid that, they’ll need quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to find a groove in a hurry behind an offensive line missing star tackle Trent Williams. Garoppolo is 6-1 as a starter against Los Angeles, but his eight interceptions are the most he has thrown against any opponent. — Nick Wagoner
Bold prediction:Cooper Kupp sets a career high for receptions with 14 catches. He leads the NFL with 28 receptions, including tying his career high of 13 in Week 1 against the Bills. Kupp’s target share through three games (35%) is higher than it was during the 2021 season (32%), and that continues against the 49ers on Monday night. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Niners’ Deebo Samuel has 111 rushing yards this season, the most among players who are primarily wide receivers. He is also one of two wideouts with a rushing touchdown in 2022. The other? Kupp.
What to know for fantasy:Allen Robinson II is one of just seven players who has seen an end zone target in each of the first three weeks. His managers might be getting impatient, but converting targets like that could make up for a slow start in short order. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: San Francisco has covered all five meetings since 2020 including playoffs. Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 24, Rams 21 Walder’s pick: 49ers 23, Rams 17 FPI prediction: LAR, 60.0% (by an average of 3.0 points)
