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Tag: expectation

  • Voter turnout exceeds expectations in California’s Prop. 50 special election

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    Early voter turnout is exceeding expectations in California’s Nov. 4 special election over redrawing the state’s congressional districts, a Democratic-led effort to counter Republican attempts to keep Congress under GOP control.

    “We’re seeing some pretty extraordinary numbers of early votes that have already been cast, people sending back in their ballots,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a livestream with former President Obama on Wednesday.

    More than 3.4 million mail ballots have been returned as of Wednesday, with votes from Democrats outpacing ballots from Republicans and Californians registered as not having a party preference, according to a ballot tracker run by Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell. Mitchell is deeply involved in the Democratic effort, and drafted the proposed congressional districts on the Nov. 4 special election ballot.

    That’s roughly the same number of ballots returned by this time in the White House contest between then-Vice President Kamala Harris and then-former President Trump in 2024, notable because turnout during presidential elections is higher than in other years.

    About a million more ballots had been turned in by this point in the unsuccessful 2021 attempt to recall Newsom, but that was during the COVID pandemic.

    This year’s turnout is also especially significant because Proposition 50 is about the esoteric topic of redistricting. Redrawing congressional districts is usually a once-a-decade process that takes place after the U.S. census to account for population shifts.

    California’s 52 congressional districts currently are crafted by a voter-approved independent commission, but Newsom and other California Democrats decided to ask voters to allow a rare mid-decade partisan gerrymandering to blunt Trump’s efforts in GOP-led states to boost his party’s numbers in the House.

    Obama, who has endorsed Proposition 50 and stars in a television ad supporting the effort, on Wednesday said the ballot measure will affect the entire country.

    “There’s a broader principle at stake that has to do with whether or not our democracy can be manipulated by those who are already in power to entrench themselves further,” Obama said. “Or, whether we’re going to have a system that allows the people to decide who’s going to represent them.”

    About 51% of the ballots that have been returned to date are from registered Democrats, while 28% are from registered Republicans and 21% are from voters who do not express a party preference.

    It’s unknown how these voters cast their ballots, but the Democratic advantage appears to give an edge to supporters of Proposition 50, which needs to be passed by a simple majority to be enacted. About 19.6 million ballots — roughly 85% of those mailed to California voters — are outstanding, though not all are expected to be returned.

    The current trend of returned ballots at this point shows Democrats having a small edge over Republicans compared with their share of the California electorate. According to the latest state voter registration report, Democrats account for 45% of California’s registered voters, while Republicans total 25% and “no party preference” voters make up 23%. Californians belonging to other parties make up the remainder.

    Mitchell added that another interesting data point is that the mail ballots continue to flow in.

    “Usually you see a lull after the first wave — if you don’t mail in your ballot in the first week, it’s going to be sitting on the counter for a while,” Mitchell said. But ballots continue to arrive, possibly encouraged by the “No Kings” protests on Saturday, he said.

    A spokesperson for the pro-Proposition 50 campaign said they are taking nothing for granted.

    “With millions of ballots still to be cast, we will keep pushing to make sure every Californian understands what’s at stake and turns out to vote yes on Nov. 4th to stop Trump’s power grab,” said spokesperson Hannah Milgrom.

    Some Republican leaders have expressed concerns that the GOP early vote may be suppressed by Trump’s past criticism about mail balloting, inaccuracies in the voter guide sent to the state’s 23 million voters and conspiracy theories about the ballot envelope design.

    “While ballot initiatives are nonpartisan, many Republicans tend to hold on to their ballots until in-person voting begins,” said Ellie Hockenbury, an advisor to the “No on Prop 50 — Stop Sacramento’s Power Grab” campaign committee. “As this next phase starts — and with nearly two weeks until Election Day — we expect already high turnout to continue rising to defeat Proposition 50 and stop Gavin Newsom’s partisan power grab.”

    Amy Thoma, a spokesperson for the other major group opposing the proposition, said the data show that the voters who have returned ballots so far are not representative of the California electorate.

    “Special elections tend to be more partisan, older and whiter than general elections, which is one of the reasons we’ve been concerned about the speed with which the politicians pushed this through,” she said.

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    Seema Mehta, Dakota Smith

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  • Mortgage rates are falling. How far will they go?

    Mortgage rates are falling. How far will they go?

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    For many prospective homebuyers, the last two years have been brutal as high home prices and mortgage rates produced the most unaffordable housing market since the 2000s bubble.

    Many experts don’t expect drastic improvement soon, but a shift could finally be underway.

    The cost of a 30-year fixed mortgage has fallen from above 7% in May to the low-6% range as of last week. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since it began raising it in 2022 in a bid to fight inflation.

    “I think for the next two years, we are in a world where the pressure is on rates to come down,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist with real estate brokerage Redfin.

    How much mortgage rates will decline is unclear.

    The cost for a mortgage is heavily influenced by inflation because institutional investors that buy 30-year mortgages that are packed into bundles don’t want to see the value of their investment eaten away.

    Experts attribute the recent decline in mortgage rates to easing inflation, as well as expectations that because consumer prices are rising less, that will enable the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate.

    The central bank’s federal funds rate does not directly affect mortgage rates, but it can do so indirectly since it sets a floor on all borrowing costs and provides a signal of how entrenched the Fed thinks inflation is.

    Keith Gumbinger, vice president of research firm HSH.com, said a Fed cut Wednesday may not move mortgage rates much because, to some extent, mortgage investors have already priced in the expectation that rates would decline.

    More cuts, however, are expected in the future.

    Gumbinger said if the Fed achieves a so-called soft landing — taming inflation without causing a recession — he would expect mortgage rates to be in the mid-5% range by this time next year.

    If the economy turns sour, mortgage rates could fall further, though even in that scenario Gumbinger doubted they’d reach the 3% and below range of the pandemic.

    Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist with Zillow, predicted that rates would not even fall to 5.5% but would stay around where they are, arguing that the economy is relatively strong and inflation is unlikely to ease much.

    “I don’t think we are going to see a huge drop, but what we have seen has been great for homebuyers so far,” he said.

    Indeed, even modest drops in borrowing costs can have a big effect on affordability.

    If a buyer puts 20% down on an $800,000 house, the monthly principal and interest payments would equal $4,258 with a 7% mortgage; $3,837 with a 6% mortgage; and $3,436 with a 5% mortgage.

    Whether dropping rates bring lasting relief is another question. Falling borrowing costs could attract a flood of additional buyers and send home prices higher — especially if increased demand isn’t met by an increase in supply.

    For now, the number of homes for sale is increasing modestly, rates are falling and home price growth is slowing.

    In August, home prices across Southern California dipped slightly from the prior month. Values were still up nearly 6% from a year earlier, but that was smaller than the 12-month increase of 9.5% in April, according to data from Zillow.

    In theory, this combination of factors could provide prospective buyers an opportunity to get into the market. Many don’t appear to be doing so.

    According to Redfin, 7.8% fewer homes across the U.S. went into escrow during the four weeks that ended Sept 8 compared with a year earlier.

    In Los Angeles County, pending sales were up 2% from a year ago but down from earlier in the summer.

    Fairweather said buyers might not be jumping in now because they haven’t realized rates have gone down or they are temporarily scared off by recent changes to real estate commission rules.

    Some agents say they are noticing a pickup.

    Costanza Genoese-Zerbi, an L.A.-area Redfin agent, said she’s recently noticed more first-time buyers out shopping, leading to an uptick in multiple offers in entry-level neighborhoods where people are more sensitive to rates.

    Other agents aren’t seeing much of a boost.

    Real estate agent Jake Sullivan, who specializes in the South Bay and San Pedro, has a theory: Homes are still far more expensive than they were just a few years ago.

    Home insurance costs have risen as well.

    “The cost of living is just so high,” Sullivan said.

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    Andrew Khouri

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