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Ethereum (ETH) has slipped 6.1% in the past 24 hours, falling below $4,300 after bulls failed to defend the crucial $4,500 resistance zone. The decline comes despite fresh institutional buying, with Tom Lee–led BitMine purchasing approximately $84 million worth of ETH in just 24 hours, lifting its holdings to over 2.15 million coins.
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BitMine’s aggressive accumulation, executed in five separate tranches, proves the growing institutional adoption. However, the market remains in “fade-the-rally” mode, as short-term traders continue to sell into strength.
Fed Rate Cut Bounce Fizzles
Ethereum (ETH) initially spiked above $4,600 after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis-point rate cut and hinted at a softer policy path for 2025. But the rally quickly lost momentum, with selling pressure intensifying as unrealized profits among large holders reached levels last seen in 2021.
ETH's price records major losses on the daily chart. Source: ETHUSD on Tradingview
On-chain flows indicate that more ETH is moving from staking contracts to centralized exchanges, signaling caution among whales. Likewise, low network fees show subdued on-chain demand, reinforcing bearish short-term sentiment.
Technical Outlook: $4,000 Ethereum (ETH) Test in Play
From a technical perspective, Ethereum’s price action has turned negative after breaking below its 50-SMA ($4,502) and 200-SMA ($4,396) on the two-hour chart. Analysts note that the breakdown candle resembled a Marubozu pattern, a strong bearish signal that often precedes further downside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plunged to oversold levels near 18, suggesting conditions are stretched but not yet bullish. Immediate downside targets lie at $4,242, $4,159, and potentially $4,065 if selling pressure persists.
A routine retest of the $4,395–$4,502 band is expected; failure to reclaim this level could pave the way for a drop toward $4,000 support.
For bulls, only a decisive reclaim above $4,502 would shift momentum back toward $4,588 and $4,699. Until then, traders are advised to treat rallies as shorting opportunities rather than signs of recovery.
Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Conviction
Despite short-term weakness, institutional accumulation still supports Ethereum’s long-term growth. BitMine’s latest acquisition shows that deep-pocketed investors continue to bet on ETH’s rise, even as short-term volatility unsettles retail traders.
The wider market remains delicate, with Bitcoin hovering around $114,000 and major altcoins like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin also declining. Analysts believe that the upcoming week, marked by Fed Chair Powell’s speech and key U.S. economic reports, could influence Ethereum’s next significant move.
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For now, ETH bulls face a tough challenge: unless $4,500 is regained decisively, the most likely direction remains toward $4,000.
Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview
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James Halver
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