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  • Making sense of the markets this week: September 22, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: September 22, 2024 – MoneySense

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    U.S. Fed cuts rates for the first time in four years

    The U.S. dollar remains the most important currency in the world, and the American economy is arguably the most important financial system as well. Consequently, when the U.S. Federal Reserve makes a big announcement, it creates an economic wave that ripples everywhere. That’s why Wednesday’s decision to cut the key overnight borrowing rate by 0.50% is a very big deal.

    Many speculated the U.S. Fed would begin cutting rates this week, but it was generally thought it would go with a 0.25% drop to begin an interest rate-cut cycle. The 50 basis points cut lowers the federal funds rate range 4.75% to 5%.

    Source: CNBC

    The U.S. Fed announced in a statement: “The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.”

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, “We’re trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has come sometimes with this inflation. That’s what we’re trying to do, and I think you could take today’s action as a sign of our strong commitment to achieve that goal.”

    Immediately after the news of the U.S.’s first interest rate cuts in four years, major stock market indices responded with a brief jump on Wednesday. But they ended the day nearly flat. That seemed to be a bit of a delayed reaction from investors, as the Bulls returned Thursday with Nasdaq soaring 2.5% and the Dow leaping 1.3% to pass 42,000 for the first time ever.

    Notably, former U.S. President Donald J. Trump continued to criticize the monetary decisions made by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This despite centuries of financial wisdom telling us that politicians getting involved in short-term monetary policy is a bad idea. (See: Turkey – Erdoğan, Tayyip.) At bitcoin bar PubKey on Wednesday, Trump said, “The economy would be very bad, or they’re playing politics.”

    The larger-than-expected rate cut left some commentators questioning if this action would spook the markets. But, if the U.S. Fed manages to thread the needle and cut rates without a recession, it could be a good thing. The historical precedents are very positive for shareholders. 

    Source: EdwardJones.ca

    This large rate cut helps ease pressures on emerging markets that borrowed in U.S. dollars. And, it takes some of the pressure off other central banks around the world that didn’t want to see their currencies devalued too much relative to the mighty USD.

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    Kyle Prevost

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  • How to invest tax-free in a bitcoin ETF in Canada – MoneySense

    How to invest tax-free in a bitcoin ETF in Canada – MoneySense

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    Investment Investment account Purchase price Sale price Gain Capital gains tax After-tax gains
    Bitcoin Non-registered $23,500 $61,000 $37,500 $3,750 $33,750
    Bitcoin ETF TFSA $23,500 $61,000 $37,500 $0 $37,500

    As you can see, in this hypothetical situation, gains for the tax-free bitcoin ETF come out ahead by $3,750, which is about 11% more than the after-tax gain on bitcoin.

    Canadian crypto ETFs 

    The table below lists all the crypto spot ETFs based in Canada. You can buy bitcoin ETFs (ETFs that invest entirely in BTC), ethereum or ether ETFs (those that invest entirely in ETH) or multi-crypto ETFs (those that invest in BTC and ETH). As of now, BTC and ETH are the only cryptocurrencies available through ETFs. (Figures are current as of Aug. 30, 2024.)

    ETF Ticker symbol Management expense ratio (MER) Assets under management
    (in Canadian dollars)
    Bitcoin ETFs
    Purpose Bitcoin ETF BTCC / BTCC.B 1.5% $2.1 billion
    CI Galaxy Bitcoin ETF BTCX.B 0.77% $724.7 million
    Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF FBTC 0.69% $491.6 million
    3iQ Coinshares Bitcoin ETF BTCQ 1.75% $283 million
    Evolve Bitcoin ETF EBIT 0.75% $165.5 million
    Ethereum (ether) ETFs
    Purpose Ether ETF ETHH / ETHH.B 1.47%–1.49% $318.7 million
    CI Galaxy Ethereum ETF ETHX.B 0.77% $385 million
    Evolve Ether ETF ETHR 0.75% $55.2 million
    3iQ Ether Staking ETF ETHQ 1.97% $65.8 million
    Fidelity Advantage Ether ETF FETH 0.95% $18.7 million
    Multiple cryptocurrency ETFs
    Evolve Cryptocurrencies ETF ETC 0.85% $35.4 million
    CI Galaxy Multi-Crypto ETF CMCX.B 1.03% $3.7 million

    U.S. crypto ETFs: Should you invest?

    U.S.-based bitcoin ETFs have created quite a buzz in 2024. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first one in January, almost three years after Purpose Investments launched Canada’s first spot bitcoin ETF. 

    Numerous American ETF providers now offer bitcoin ETFs, including big investment brands like BlackRock’s iShares, Fidelity and Invesco. Canadian investors can buy these ETFs, too, through their discount brokerage account—just like they would any U.S. stock or ETF. And, yes, these ETFs can be held in registered accounts like the TFSA or RRSP.

    Which is better: Canadian or U.S. ETFs? 

    Truth be told, there’s not much difference between the two. For instance, bitcoin ETFs in both countries hold the same underlying asset: bitcoin. Investors could make a decision based on their preferred parameters. 

    For example, you may pick the bitcoin ETF with the lowest management expense ratio (MER) or the highest assets under management (AUM), or you could look for the oldest fund—regardless of where it’s based. 

    If you go with a Canadian ETF, you could have more choices to make: Do you want a Canadian ETF that hedges its currency risk or one that doesn’t? Do you want to hold the ETF in U.S. dollars? The table below lays out the options for one example, the Purpose Bitcoin ETF. (Figures are current as of Sept. 13, 2024.)

    ETF (ticker symbol) Currency Currency hedge One-year return
    BTCC Canadian dollar Yes 117.94%
    BTCC.B Canadian dollar No 121.15%
    BTCC.U U.S. dollar No 120.88%

    In the right-hand column, you’ll notice there’s a difference in the ETFs’ one-year historical return, even though they all hold bitcoin as their underlying asset. This difference is because of the appreciation or depreciation of the currency in which the ETF holds its bitcoin. In this case, the non-hedged ETF delivered higher returns because it benefited from the appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar. But there’s no way to have known this one year ago. Like all financial markets, the currency market is largely unpredictable.

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    Aditya Nain

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  • Making sense of the markets this week: September 15, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: September 15, 2024 – MoneySense

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    Trump’s down, Oracle’s up

    Tuesday’s earnings call was the best day that Oracle shareholders have seen in a while. 

    Oracle earnings highlights

    All figures in U.S. currency in this section.

    • Oracle (ORCL/NYSE): Earnings per share came in at $1.39 (versus $1.32 predicted), and revenues of $13.31 billion (versus $13.23 billion predicted). 

    Share prices rose more than 13% after the tech giant showed profits that were up nearly 20% from last year. Revenues across the company’s cloud services division continue to increase. And CEO Safra Catz said, “I will say that demand is still outstripping supply. But I can live with that.”

    Founder Larry Ellison (who recently passed Mark Zuckerberg to become the second richest person in the world) excitedly predicted that Oracle would one day operate more than 2,000 data centres, which is up from the 162 today. The current project that he highlighted is a massive data centre that will use three modular nuclear reactors to produce the needed gigawatts of electricity.

    In other U.S. stock market news, Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT/NASDAQ) investors face a big decision this week. The stock plummeted from highs of $66 per share on March 27, to $16.56 after the debate on Wednesday. Don’t say we didn’t warn you. 

    That’s not the worst news for DJT investors though. Next week, a potentially crippling event occurs: the entity that owns 57% of the shares can sell the stock for the first time. If it were to sell all its shares (in order to get as much money as possible out of a business venture that loses millions of dollars every month), the share price would tank. 

    What is the “entity”? It’s actually a question of who not what: Donald Trump. 

    Even at reduced share price levels, Trump’s slice of Truth Social is worth about $1.9 billion. It’s not like he needs money for pressing issues or anything like that…

    Dell and Palantir kick American Airlines and Etsy out of the S&P 500

    In other big events to look forward to, September 23 will see major U.S. market indices experience a reweighting. Given that trillions of dollars are now passively invested into indice-based index funds, whether your company is a member of a specific index or not can make a big difference in its share price. That said, these indice moves are largely anticipated by the market, so a lot of the value movement has already been priced in.

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    Kyle Prevost

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  • Making sense of the markets this week: September 8, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: September 8, 2024 – MoneySense

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    Macklem says we could see a soft landing

    For the third straight month, the Bank of Canada (BoC) decided to cut interest rates. The quarter-point cut takes the Bank’s key interest rate down to 4.25%.

    The news that’s perhaps bigger than the widely anticipated rate cut was how aggressive BoC governor Tiff Macklem sounded in his prepared remarks. Macklem stated, “If we need to take a bigger step, we’re prepared to take a bigger step.” That sentence will be focused on by financial markets looking to price in larger potential cuts in the months to come. As of Thursday, financial markets were predicting a 93% probability that October would see another 0.25% rate cut. Several economists believe interest rates would fall to around 3% by next summer.

    While describing a potential soft landing to the bumpy pandemic-fuelled inflation flight we’ve been on, Macklem stated, “The runway’s in sight, but we have not landed it yet.” It appears that the real debate is no longer if the BoC should cut interest rates, but instead, how quickly it should cut them, and whether a 0.50% cut may be in the cards sooner rather than later.

    With unemployment rates increasing, it follows that the inflation rate of labour-intensive services should continue to fall. Lower variable-rate mortgage interest payments will automatically have a deflationary impact on shelter costs across Canada as well.

    You can read our article about the best low-risk investments in Canada at Milliondollarjourney.com if lowered interest rates have you thinking about adjusting your portfolio.

    Will Couche-Tard go global?

    Last week we wrote about the Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD/TSX) proposed buyout of 7-Eleven parent company Seven & i Holdings Co. If the buyout goes through, ATD would go from being Canada’s 14th-largest company to being in the running for third-largest company. That’s a big if: on Friday morning, just hours before we went to press, Seven & i said it is rejecting ATD’s $38.5-billion cash bid on the grounds it was not in the best interests of shareholders and was likely to face major anti-trust challenges in the U.S. (All figures in this section are in U.S. dollars.)

    It’s interesting to note that 7-Eleven has been much better at running convenience stores in Japan (where it has a 38% profit margin) versus outside of Japan (where it has a 4% margin). That’s partly due to the fact that locations outside of Japan sell a large amount of low-margin gasoline. Couche-Tard, however, has been able to unlock margins in the 8% range in similar gasoline-dominated locations, indicating substantial room for growth. With 7-Eleven’s overall returns falling far behind its Japanese benchmark index over the last eight years, there is clearly a business case to be made to current shareholders.

    The political dimensions to the acquisition are much harder to quantify than the business case. While Japan did change its laws to become more foreign-acquisition-friendly in 2023, it still classifies companies as “core,” “non-core” and “protected,” under the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act. Logically, it seems that a convenience-store company would fit the textbook definition of “non-core.” However, Seven & i Holdings has asked the government to change the classification of its corporation to “core” or “protected.” That would effectively kill any wholesale acquisition opportunities.

    There is also an American legal aspect to the deal. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) would have to rule on whether ATD’s resulting U.S. market share of 13% would be too dominant. Barry Schwartz, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Baskin Wealth Management, speculated that the most likely outcome might be a sale of 7-Eleven’s overseas assets to ATD, with the company holding on to its Japan-based assets.

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    Kyle Prevost

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  • Is VFV a good buy? What about other U.S. ETFs with even lower fees? – MoneySense

    Is VFV a good buy? What about other U.S. ETFs with even lower fees? – MoneySense

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    Sure, investing in these ETFs means you’ll forfeit 15% of your dividends to withholding tax. Yet, for many, it’s a worthwhile trade-off to gain access the most significant U.S. equity index—a benchmark that, according to the Standard & Poor’s Indices Versus Active (SPIVA) report, has outperformed 88% of all U.S. large-cap funds over the past 15 years.

    But hold on, these aren’t your only choices. And here’s something you might not know: they aren’t even the cheapest around. Just like opting for no-name brands at the store can offer the same quality for a lower price, other ETF managers have been quietly rolling out competing U.S. equity index ETFs that come with even lower fees. Here’s what you need to know to make an informed choice.

    Exploring cheaper alternatives to the well-known S&P 500 ETFs—like VFV, ZSP and XUS—leads us to a pair of lesser known but highly competitive options: the TD U.S. Equity Index ETF (TPU) and the Desjardins American Equity Index ETF (DMEU). Launched in March 2016 and April 2024, respectively, these ETFs track the Solactive US Large Cap CAD Index (CA NTR) and the Solactive GBS United States 500 CAD Index. The “CA NTR” stands for “net total return,” which means the index accounts for after-withholding tax returns, providing a more accurate measure of what Canadian investors might take home.

    Essentially, these indices offer U.S. equity exposure without the licensing costs associated with the brand-name S&P 500 index, which is a significant advantage for keeping expenses low. You can think of Solactive as the RC Cola of the indexing industry, and S&P Global as Coca-Cola, and MSCI as Pepsi. 

    For TPU, the management fee is set at 0.06%, with a total MER of 0.07%. DMEU charges a management fee of just 0.05%. Since it hasn’t been trading for a full year yet, its MER is still to be determined but is expected to be competitively low.

    In terms of portfolio composition, there’s scant difference between the these ETFs: VFV, TPU and DMEU. Glance at the top 10 holdings, and you’ll see the weightings of these ETFs reveals very similar exposure, with only minor deviations. Similarly, when comparing sector allocations between TPU and VFV, they align closely, reflecting a consistent approach to capturing the broad U.S. equity market. However, look a bit deeper into the technical aspects, the indices that these ETFs track—the Solactive indices for TPU and DMEU versus the S&P 500 for VFV—exhibit some notable differences. 

    The S&P 500 is not as straightforward as it might seem, though. It doesn’t just track the 500 largest U.S. stocks. Instead, what is included is at the discretion of a committee, subject to eligibility criteria including market capitalization, liquidity, public float and positive earnings. This makes it more stringent and somewhat more active than you might have thought.

    In contrast, the Solactive indices used by TPU and DMEU are more passive. They simply track the largest 500 U.S. stocks by market cap, with minimal additional screening criteria. This straightforward approach lends a more passive characteristic to these indices compared to the S&P 500.

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    Tony Dong

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  • Making sense of the markets this week: September 1, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: September 1, 2024 – MoneySense

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    Couche-Tard takes aim at Slurpee King

    Because I grew up in near Winnipeg, the Slurpee Capital of the World, I thought I knew everything the 7-Eleven universe had to offer. Then, I visited Japan and Thailand last year. I realized that I hadn’t seen anything yet. (All figures in U.S. dollars in this section.)

    In much of Thailand and Japan (among other places in Asia), the convenience store is a daily touchstone stop. In Tokyo, there are more than 3,000 7-Eleven stores, a large part of the country’s 56,000-plus convenience store locations. While 7-Eleven was a big part of my childhood, it pales in comparison to the role it plays within many Asian communities. 

    So, it quickly caught my attention when Canadian corporate darling Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD/TSX) announced it was making a friendly takeover bid for Tokyo-based Seven & I Holdings Co (SVNDY/NIKKEI). The possible deal is historic for many reasons.

    1. The acquisition of Seven & I Holdings Co is the largest-ever Japanese target of a foreign buyer. 
    2. It’s the first test of new 2023 takeover rules by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), designed to make foreign acquisitions more welcoming and Japanese companies more internationally competitive. 
    3. It would likely top Enbridge’s $28 billion acquisition of Spectra Energy Corp back in 2016, to become Canada’s largest-ever corporate takeover.
    4. It would combine Couche-Tarde’s convenience store empire of 16,700 stores in 31 countries, with 7-Eleven’s 85,800 stores in 19 countries.
    5. By combining ATD’s and 7-Eleven’s U.S. market share, Couche-Tard would control more than 12% of the U.S. convenience store market, with the closest competitor being Casey’s General Stores at only 1.7%.
    6. It’s a massive bite to take for ATD, currently valued at about $56 billion, since 7-Eleven is currently worth about $38 billion.
    7. The potential acquisition is so large that many analysts believe ATD would have to raise $18 billion in new equity to complete the deal. That would be the biggest stock offering in Canada by a wide margin. It would also be in addition to the $2 billion in cash on hand ATD has, and its ability to borrow about $20 billion. There’s speculation that Canadian pension plans would be a key source of capital in order to get a deal done.

    Neither company disclosed the precise terms of the deal, but Couche-Tard described the offer as “friendly, non-binding.” That’s a key differentiator from a “hostile takeover.” (A hostile takeover is when a company tries to purchase more than half of another company’s shares on the free market against the wishes of the targeted company’s management, thus taking over operational control.)

    This move is not totally out of the blue for ATD, as the company has taken big acquisitional swings before. The Quebec-based operator has a long history of successfully integrating new acquisitions. Its attempt three years ago to purchase French grocery chain Carrefour for $25 billion was scuttled at the last minute by the French Finance Minister citing food security issues. Similar protectionist governmental instincts could prevent this massive deal from getting done. 

    That said, Couche-Tard has been circling (Circle K-ing?) 7-Eleven for over two years now. Perhaps it believes it has what it takes to navigate the new Japanese corporate legal waters and get the deal done.

    While there will likely be some nervous customers of 7-Eleven (nobody wants to see change at their favourite corner store), Seven & I Holdings’ shareholders must be happy. Shares were up 22% upon announcement of the proposed acquisition.

    1900 vs. 2023 stock markets

    It’s always worth keeping the long run in mind when thinking about trends and market forces. When we consider just what an incredible run the U.S. stock market has achieved over the last few years, it’s important to remember that it’s unlikely to continue that outperformance forevermore.

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    Kyle Prevost

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  • Making sense of the markets this week: August 25, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: August 25, 2024 – MoneySense

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    On Tuesday, Statistics Canada stated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measured inflation of 2.5% for July. That’s down from 2.7% in June, and is the lowest inflation rate recorded since 2021.

    Deceleration in headline inflation led by shelter component , 12-month % change

    CPI basket items June 2024 July 2024
    All-items Consumer Price Index 2.7% 2.5%
    Food 2.8% 2.7%
    Shelter 6.2% 5.7%
    Household operations, furnishings and equipment -0.9% -0.1%
    Clothing and footwear -3.1% -2.7%
    Transportation 2% 2%
    Health and personal care 3.0% 2.9%
    Recreation, education and reading 0.6% -0.2%
    Alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and recreational cannabis 3.1% 2.7%
    Source: Statistics Canada

    In fact, if you take shelter out of the equation, we’re getting close to zero inflation. And that’s significant for two reasons:

    1. The shelter-inflation rate (primarily a measurement of rent and mortgage expenses) did come down substantially between June and July.
    2. As the Bank of Canada (BoC) cuts interest rates, the inflation component of the CPI will inevitably go down as Canadians will have access to mortgages with lower rates.

    Notably, passenger vehicle prices were down 1.4% in July. Clothing and footwear was also down by 2.7%. Food and gas were up by 2.7% and 1.9% respectively. British Columbia and New Brunswick had the highest inflation rate growth, while Manitoba and Saksatchewan had the lowest.

    It’s pretty clear there’s no longer an overall inflation crisis in Canada. It’s now simply a home affordability issue at this point. Economists were widely predicting that this continuing trend of a downward inflation rate would clear the way for continued interest-rate cuts in the coming months. Money markets are now predicting a 0.25% cut minimum on September 4, with a 4% probability that the cut will be 0.50%. Looking further down the road, those same markets are predicting there is a 76% chance we will see a 2% decrease by October of 2025. 

    I hope you locked in those guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) or bonds when you could still snag those high rates Check out MoneySense’s list of the best GIC rates in Canada, and my article on low-risk investments over at MillionDollarJourney.com.

    A bullseye for Target

    Target Corporation posted a big earnings beat on Wednesday and shareholders saw its shares increase in value by 11.20%. The Minneapolis-based discount retailer is the seventh-largest in the U.S.

    Retail earnings highlights

    All numbers are in U.S. dollars.

    • Target (TGT/NYSE): Earnings per share of $2.57 (versus $2.18 predicted). Revenue of $25.45 billion (versus $25.21 billion estimate).
    • Lowe’s Companies (LOW/NYSE): Earnings per share of $4.10 (versus $3.97 predicted), and revenues of $23.59 billion (versus $23.91 billion predicted).

    Same-store sales for Target grew 3% last quarter, after five straight quarters of declining sales. More purchases of discretionary items like clothing were responsible for the positive reversal to the declining sales trend.

    Target’s COO Michael Fiddelke had a very cautious tone, though. “While we’ve been pleased with our performance so far this year, our view of the consumer remains largely the same. The range of possibilities and the macroeconomic backdrop in consumer data and in our business remains unusually high.” And Target CEO Brian Cornell cited price reductions and a value-seeking consumer as reasons for increased foot traffic in the quarter.

    It was very much a mediocre earnings report for Lowes, though, as it beat earnings expectations decisively but cut its full-year forecast. Shares were down by about 1% on Tuesday after the earnings announcement. 

    Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison said consumers were waiting for cuts in interest rates before taking on large home improvement projects. Because 90% of Lowes’ customers are homeowners (as opposed to contractors), they are particularly sensitive to movements in interest rates, he shared. Same-store sales were down 5.1% year over year.

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    Kyle Prevost

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  • Making sense of the markets this week: August 18, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: August 18, 2024 – MoneySense

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    The U.S. is set to cut rates—finally

    After much speculation about when the U.S. will finally begin cutting its interest rates, the CME FedWatch tool reports a 100% chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut its rates in September. Market watchers are pretty confident, with a 36% chance that the U.S. Fed will go right to a 0.50% cut instead of nudging the rate down. And looking ahead, the futures market predicts a 100% chance of 0.75% in rate cuts by December this year, with a 32% chance of a 1.25% rate decrease. The forecasts became stronger this week as the annualized inflation rate in the U.S. slowed to 2.9%, its lowest rate since March 2021. There are a lot of percentages here, but the gist is people are expecting big interest rate cuts.

    Those probabilities should take some of the currency pressure off of the Bank of Canada (BoC) when it makes its next interest rate decision on September 4. If the BoC were to continue to cut rates at a faster pace than the U.S. Fed, the Canadian dollar would substantially depreciate and import-led inflation would likely become an issue.

    Source: CNBC

    Here are some top-line takeaways from the U.S. Labor Department July CPI report:

    • Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose at an annualized inflation rate of 3.2%.
    • Shelter costs rose 0.4% in one month and were responsible for 90% of the headline inflation increase.
    • Food prices were up 0.2% from June to July.
    • Energy prices were flat from June to July.
    • Medical care services and apparel actually deflated by 0.3% and -0.4% respectively.

    When combined with the meagre July jobs report, it’s pretty clear the U.S. consumer-led inflation pressures are receding. As the U.S. cuts interest rates and mortgage costs come down, it’s quite likely that shelter costs (the last leg of strong inflation) could come down as well.

    Walmart: “Not projecting a recession”

    Despite slowing U.S. consumer spending, mega retailers Home Depot and Walmart continue to book solid profits.

    U.S. retail earnings highlights

    Here are the results from this week. All numbers below are reported in USD.

    • Walmart (WMT/NYSE): Earnings per share of $0.67 (versus $0.65 predicted). Revenue of $169.34 billion (versus $168.63 billion predicted).
    • Home Depot (HD/NYSE): Earnings per share of $4.60 (versus $4.49 predicted). Revenue of $43.18 billion (versus $43.06 billion predicted).

    While Home Depot posted a strong earnings beat on Wednesday, forward guidance was lukewarm, resulting in a gain of 1.60% on the day. Walmart, on the other hand, knocked the ball out of the park and raised its forward guidance and booked a gain of 6.58% on Thursday.

    Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey told CNBC, “In this environment, it’s responsible or prudent to be a little bit guarded with the outlook, but we’re not projecting a recession.” He went on to add, “We see, among our members and customers, that they remain choiceful, discerning, value-seeking, focusing on things like essentials rather than discretionary items, but importantly, we don’t see any additional fraying of consumer health.”

    Same-store sales for Walmart U.S. were up 4.2% year over year, and e-commerce sales were up 22%. The mega retailer highlighted its launch of the Bettergoods grocery brand as a way to monetize the trend toward cheaper food-at-home options, and away from fast food. 

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    Kyle Prevost

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  • Making sense of the markets this week: August 4, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: August 4, 2024 – MoneySense

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    Mixed results for Magnificent 7 

    The narrative around the Magnificent 7 mega-cap technology stocks has become mixed, even in the face of mostly positive earnings news.

    Microsoft stock sold off on Tuesday even after the company narrowly beat Wall Street expectations for its fiscal fourth-quarter results and handily surpassed results from a year ago. Investors have been scrutinizing figures for AI operations in particular; Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud revenue rose 19% year over year and contributed 8 percentage points of growth to its Azure and other cloud services revenue, which grew 29%. Evidently, that wasn’t enough.

    Facebook and Instagram owner Meta Platforms, by contrast, easily bested analyst forecasts for the second quarter. It boosted net income by 73% over the same quarter last year and is gaining advertising market share over archrival Alphabet. Compared to its Mag 7 peers, Meta has been a stock-market laggard since 2022 but undertook a cost- and job-cutting campaign that now appears to be paying off.

    Apple likewise surpassed expectations for revenue and earnings, posting particularly strong results in its iPhone and iPad divisions. Cloud services, computers and wearables were in line with estimates.

    Amazon was punished after missing the analyst consensus for revenue, even though it beat estimates for earnings. Though Amazon Web Services performance was strong, the company’s core retail and advertising businesses disappointed.

    Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon earnings highlights

    Currency figures in this section are reported in USD.

    • Microsoft (MSFT/NASDAQ): Earnings per share of $2.95 (versus $2.94 predicted). Revenue of $64.7 billion (versus $64.5 billion estimate).
    • Meta Platforms (META/NASDAQ): Earnings per share of $5.16 (versus $4.63 expected). Revenue of $39.07 billion (versus $38.31 billion estimate).
    • Apple (AAPL/NASDAQ): Earnings per share of $1.40 (versus $1.35 expected) . Revenue of $85.78 billion (versus $84.53 billion estimate).
    • Amazon (AMZN/NASDAQ): Earnings per share of $1.26 (versus $1.03 expected). Revenue of $147.98 billion (versus $148.56 billion estimate).

    The U.S. Fed stands pat for now

    There were no assassination attempts or presidential nominees dropping out of the race for the White House this week. The news out of Washington, D.C. on Wednesday, however, was just as closely watched by markets. 

    The U.S. Federal Reserve elected to hold its overnight lending rate at 5.5%. In a statement, the central bank’s Open Market Committee acknowledged signs of a slowing economy but said it would not cut rates “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.” The market continues to pin its bets on a rate cut in September, which would be the first since 2020.

    That leaves the Bank of Canada, which has cut rates in both of the last two months, a full percentage point below the U.S. Fed. The Canadian dollar nonetheless gained slightly against the greenback, at USD$0.72485, in the wake of the announcement, suggesting the policy decision was expected.

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    Michael McCullough

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  • What happens when you can’t manage your investments anymore? – MoneySense

    What happens when you can’t manage your investments anymore? – MoneySense

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    I try to picture 84-year-old me being told by my kids that it is time to hire a financial planner. I may not be so keen myself when the time comes. Maybe I should bookmark this column.

    I took over the management of my mother’s finances toward the end of her life. She seemed reluctant, but she knew it was time. I think she still saw me as her little boy even though thousands of clients and readers looked to me for advice that she was hesitant to take.

    Managing your own investments to save on fees

    If you expect to pay $35,000 a year on fees to invest in mutual funds, Laasya, I am speculating here, but you probably have somewhere between $1.5 million and $2 million of investments. Mutual fund management expense ratios (MERs) are embedded fees that are paid from the fund’s returns each year. They are about 2% on average but can range from under 0.5% for low-cost, passive index funds to 3% or more for segregated funds from insurance companies.

    If you have $1 million or more to invest, there are discretionary portfolio managers who use stocks and bonds or proprietary pooled funds who may charge 1% or less of your portfolio value. (Discretionary means the portfolio manager makes buy and sell decisions on your behalf.)

    You could certainly invest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and now there are plenty of simple asset-allocation ETFs (also known as all-in-one ETFs) that can be a one-stop shop for investors. Fees are in the 0.25% range.

    Why self-directed investing may not be the answer

    The problem with buying an ETF, Laasya, is that your kids are concerned about you investing on your own. And if they wanted to be self-directed investors, they probably would have offered to help you manage your investments. They did not. So, if you pull your investments to manage them yourself again, you may be putting your kids in an uncomfortable position, as they may potentially have to become DIY investors at some point if you’re unable to manage your own investments.

    Self-directed investing may seem easy to people who are comfortable doing it. But I remain convinced that some people will never be able to manage their own investments, no matter how simple it becomes.

    Have you considered a robo-advisor?

    I often joke with my wife that I am very good at a short list of things in the financial planning realm, but not much else. There are plenty of things that I could probably learn to do around my house or in other aspects of life that I have no interest in learning. I would rather pay an expert.

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    Jason Heath, CFP

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  • Making sense of the markets this week: July 28, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: July 28, 2024 – MoneySense

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    Biden’s withdrawal soothes bond market, deflates “Trump trade”

    Compared to the way U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision not to run for a second term shook the political world, the markets seemed nonplussed—on the surface, at least. 

    Biden’s U-turn took some air out of the “Trump trade” in stock, bond and cryptocurrency markets. Stock markets overall rebounded the day after the announcement, with mega-cap technology stocks leading the way. But oil and gas stocks and cryptocurrencies—foreseen to fare better under a Donald Trump administration—retrenched. 

    The Republican nominee is seen as a bigger deficit spender than whomever the Democrats might settle on, so a Trump/Vance administration is expected to usher in higher inflation. That recently translated into a steeper yield curve for bonds as polls showed him ahead of Biden. However, that expectation of Trump as an inevitable shoo-in has now deflated and bond yields have flattened somewhat.

    However, Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, warned investors to stay braced for more short-term volatility, “as the significant uncertainty about the new Democratic ticket might not be resolved until the party’s convention in August.” She also suggested that investors should pay closer attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve moves with respect to interest rates. (More on Canada’s recent rate cut below.)

    Something for Canadians and investors to ponder: As a senator, Vice President and Democratic front-runner Kamala Harris voted against the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade agreement (USMCA), the successor to NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) that was concluded by the Trump administration in 2020. At the time, she cited the lack of environmental protections for her decision.

    Bank of Canada cuts rates again

    Speaking of monetary policy, on Wednesday Bank of Canada (BoC) governor Tiff Macklem announced a second quarter-point cut to interest rates in as many months bringing the overnight lending rate down to 4.5%. Further, Macklem hinted there would be more cuts to come this year; provided inflation continues to subside towards the Bank’s 2% target. The country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.7% year-over-year in June, down from a 21st-century high of 8.1% two years earlier.

    The rate cut was widely expected by markets. 

    “Today’s decision to cut was consistent with our call, and that of broader market consensus which had upped the odds of reduction following a cascade of recent data which showed decelerating inflation, slack in the labour market and underperforming economy.”

    – Brian Yu, AVP and chief economist for Central1 Credit Union.

    The BoC is forecasting 1.2% GDP growth this year, 2.1% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, which sounds OK until you consider population growth is currently running at 3%. Regardless, the rate cut provides some relief to mortgage holders and support for bond markets.

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    Michael McCullough

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  • Analyst Upbeat On XRP Rally Despite SEC Meeting Cancellation

    Analyst Upbeat On XRP Rally Despite SEC Meeting Cancellation

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    Nobody in the XRP community expected the SEC to cancel a meeting behind closed doors on July 18 without giving any reason. Some people think this move has something to do with the approval process for spot Ethereum ETFs.

    Related Reading

    Crypto Community Clueless On Meeting Cancellation

    There has been an obvious shakeup in the cryptocurrency market because of the sudden about-face. XRP, Ripple’s native coin, fell 8% to $0.58, its 24-hour low. Trade volume was down as well, yet it rose 20%, showing investors’ interest amid uncertainties.

    There is a lot of talk in the market that the SEC’s decision might have something to do with the process of approving spot Ethereum ETFs.

    Some of these funds have already been given preliminary approvals and were supposed to start trading next week. The US regulator may have canceled the meetings as a smart move in light of these events.

    XRP market cap currently at $30.9 billion. Chart: TradingView.com

    Market Experts Keep A Close Eye On The Altcoin

    Technical experts are paying close attention to how the price of XRP changes in this unstable market. Javon, a renowned analyst, identified a chart pattern that resembles XRP’s recent bull run.

    The symmetrical triangular pattern expanding since 2018 matches the 2014–2017 trend. The first pattern led to a rapid rise that sent XRP from about $0.005 to a staggering high of $3.347, a rise of almost 43,000%.

    If the past is any indication, another rise could be coming soon. According to Javon’s prediction, the price of XRP could climb to a level above $237. Even though this prediction is very high, it fits with how things have been in the past and shows that things could go up from where they are now.

    XRP: Resistance And Support

    The technical indicators at hand provide XRP buyers with a mixed bag of data. In terms of support, the altcoin is still higher above the 50% Fibonacci retracing line and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. Strong support is spotted at $0.5820 and $0.5850. These figures are quite significant as they highlight major areas where the price may settle and maybe even rise.

    XRP up in the last week. Source: Coingecko

    On the other hand, the coin meets strong opposition at different levels. Right now, there is resistance around $0.620. There are also bigger blocks at $0.6350, $0.6420, and possibly even $0.6550 and $0.680.

    Related Reading

    If there is a clear break above these support levels, more gains could happen. But if XRP fails to break through these levels, there may be a drop to the downside. The price is likely to find support near $0.600, and it will likely go down even more if it falls below $0.5850.

    Featured image from Quick Tips, chart from TradingView

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    Christian Encila

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  • Making sense of the markets this week: July 21, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: July 21, 2024 – MoneySense

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    Inflation continues to fall as temperature rise

    As we’re moving through summer’s dog days and heat records are being broken around the world, Canadian inflation is moving in the opposite direction. Statistics Canada released that the year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase cooled to 2.7% in June. As inflation continues its downward trend, it generally indicates that the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy is working.

    Source: Statistics Canada

    Consumer price index June 2024 report highlights

    The main takeaways from the monthly CPI report are:

    • Core CPI (excluding food and energy) stayed stubbornly higher than the headline CPI, coming in at an annualized 2.9%.
    • Shelter continues to dominate the overall inflation picture, as prices were up 6.2%.
    • Services, another major inflation concern, were up 4.8%.
    • Durable good prices have substantially deflated, as they fell at an annualized rate of 1.8%.
    • Similarly, prices for clothes and shoes were down 3.1%.
    • Gas prices were down 3.1% from May to June, and have been pretty stable over the last year.
    • Grocery prices went up at an annualized rate of 2.1%, lower than the overall CPI figure.

    The business and individual sentiment surveys point to decreasing inflation expectations going forward, and are significant indicators that the Bank of Canada (BoC) has succeeded in curbing the scariest runaway inflation scenarios. The early 1980s saw the rise of denim and ultra-high interest rates. While ’80s fashion might be back, it’s pretty clear that the era’s monetary policy isn’t.

    Decreased inflation is welcomed news by many Canadians, but it’s probably cold comfort to those with mortgages due for renewal this month. The country as a whole might be happier that demand-pull inflation is down, but that just really means: “People have way less money to spend on most things because their mortgage or rent payments just went through the roof.”

    The lower inflation rates and decreased inflation sentiments should empower the BoC to continue to slowly but surely cut interest rates in the coming months. It would be shocking if the BoC didn’t lower interest rates by 0.25% when it makes its decision next week.

    To check out the effects of inflation rates right now, use this table. 

    powered by Ratehub.ca

    Read more: Canada’s inflation rate falls to 2.7% in June, driving hopes for July rate cut

    Netflix subscribers must be nostalgic for TV commercials

    Earnings day went largely as predicted for Netflix last Thursday, as earnings and revenues were quite close to the company’s guidance last quarter.

    Netflix earnings highlights

    Currency figures in this section are reported in USD.

    • Netflix (NFLX/NASDAQ): Earnings per share of $4.88 (versus $4.74 predicted). Revenue of $9.56 billion (versus $9.53 billion estimate).

    Netflix sold more memberships than was predicted (277.65 million versus 274.40 million). The bulk of that subscriber growth was in its advertising-supported platform. The markets seemed to take the news in stride, as share prices were largely flat in after-market trading.

    Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos highlighted the company’s focus on ads going forward, saying that the streamer would no longer partner with Microsoft. Instead, it’s investing in its own platform. He also mentioned that Netflix’s push into live sports would attract more ad dollars, specifically mentioning the NFL games on Christmas Day as important opportunities. He summed up the company’s push into live sports saying, “We’re in live [TV] because our members love it, and it drives a ton of engagement and a ton of excitement… and the good thing is advertisers like it for the exact same reason.”

    With Netflix up over 43% this year, and at a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of over 44, one could make the argument the stock is priced appropriately, and that it will have to expertly execute future growth plans to have any chance of justifying that high price tag.

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    Kyle Prevost

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  • Making sense of the markets this week: July 14, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: July 14, 2024 – MoneySense

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    Are U.S. rate cuts on the way?

    While Canada’s inflation rate is obviously at the forefront around decision making for the Bank of Canada (BoC) in setting the key interest rate, inflation below the border is also a major consideration. Arguably, policymakers are loath to devalue the Canadian dollar beyond a certain level. Consequently, if U.S. inflation stays high—and U.S. interest rates correspondingly stay high—it will likely impact just how quickly the BoC can cut our interest rates.

    “The Canadian and American economies are very closely intertwined, especially when it comes to the cost of borrowing. Historically the BoC and the Fed have mirrored each other in terms of monetary policy (the act of cutting, holding, or hiking their benchmark interest rates).”

    —Penelope Graham, mortgage expert

    Markets were mostly flat on Thursday after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that headline CPI was down 0.1% from May, and the 12-month inflation reading was now 3%.

    Source: CNBC

    U.S. inflation highlights

    The CPI report included the following details:

    • Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 0.1% and up 3.3% from a year ago.
    • Gas prices were down 3.8%.
    • Food prices were up 0.2%.
    • Shelter prices were up 0.2%.
    • Used vehicles prices were down 1.5%.
    • Real hour earnings were up 0.4% for the month.

    Overall, the down-trending inflation rate, as well as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments about holding interest rates too high for too long this week, both seem to indicate a probable rate cut in September. CME Group’s FedWatch tracker uses futures contracts to predict the likelihood of interest rate movements, and it currently shows a strong likelihood of two interest rate cuts before the end of 2024. There is even a 40% probability of three cuts before year end.

    Obviously this is welcome news to indebted Americans, but also to Canadian consumers who want to see interest rates come down here sooner rather than later.

    —Kyle Prevost

    Pepsi’s revenues taste flat

    Beverage-and-snack behemoth PepsiCo released lukewarm earnings news on Thursday. For those who aren’t familiar with Pepsi’s corporate structure, it long ago ceased to be a single-beverage entity. With brands ranging from numerous snack and soft drink choice to breakfast cereals, Pepsi is a diversified food conglomerate, including FritoLay and Quaker.

    Source: Chathura Nalanda via LinkedIn

    Pepsi earnings highlights

    All figures in U.S. dollars.

    • PepsiCo (PEP/NASDAQ): Earnings per share came in at $2.28 (versus $2.16 predicted) on revenues of $22.50 billion (versus $22.57 billion predicted). Shares were down nearly 2% in early trading on Thursday.

    The company cited a declining demand in North America as the main factor in slowing revenue growth. Company executives explained that North American consumers were becoming more price conscious after failing to “push back” on significant price increases over the last few years. Low-income shoppers were highlighted as being the most willing consumer group to shift to cheaper private-label options. As well, increasing agricultural commodity costs were cited as an increasing operating expense. It’s worth noting that some market watchers believe weight-loss drugs, such as Ozempic and Wegovy, may curb demand for snack foods in the North American market.

    FritoLay’s North America sales were down 4% year over year, while North American beverages were down 3%. Those sales declines were offset by international revenue increasing by 7% year to date. Management highlighted that this was the 13th straight consecutive quarter with at least mid-single-digit organic revenue growth for international operations.

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    Kyle Prevost

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  • AI ETFs in Canada: How investors can ride the AI wave – MoneySense

    AI ETFs in Canada: How investors can ride the AI wave – MoneySense

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    Not just domestic fund managers like Evolve and CI are entering the Canadian AI ETF scene. Invesco Canada offers INAI, which tracks a namesake index for a 0.35% management fee. The index is actively managed by the “Morningstar Equity Research Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Committee” which reviews and assigns exposure scores for holdings, making it less passive than some might expect. 

    The index focuses on four sub-themes (generative AI, data and infrastructure, software and services) and includes notable foreign holdings like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. INAI is not currency hedged but does offer a Canadian dollar-hedged version, INAI.F.

    Finally, Global X ETFs (formerly Horizons) actually offers not one, but two AI thematic ETFs: AIGO and RBOT. 

    AIGO, which made its debut on May 14, 2024, tracks the Indxx Artificial Intelligence & Big Data Index by wrapping a U.S. Global X listed AI ETF in a fund of funds structure. It charges a 0.49% management fee and is not currency hedged. AIGO’s underlying U.S. ETF currently holds companies like Nvidia, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Netflix, Meta and Tencent, showcasing a broader semiconductor and communications focus.

    RBOT, by contrast, has been around much longer, having listed in 2017, and has accumulated about $55 million in assets. It charges a 0.45% management fee, which amounts to a 0.64% MER along with a 0.04% trading expense ratio (TER). RBOT tracks the Indxx Global Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic Index, which focuses more on applied robotics and automation rather than just software, including healthcare companies like Intuitive Surgical and foreign manufacturers like Yaskawa Electric Corp.

    Investing in any of these ETFs is straightforward. Simply enter the ETF’s ticker in your brokerage application, decide on the number of shares you wish to buy and at what price (using a limit order is recommended), and be patient as your transaction completes.

    While the rapid expansion of the AI sector and the flurry of new AI ETFs in Canada are undeniably exciting, I can’t help but draw parallels with the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, particularly the rise and fall of Cisco Systems. 

    At its peak, Cisco briefly surpassed Microsoft as the world’s most valuable company, with a market cap nearing $500 billion, riding the wave of the internet and networking boom.

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    Tony Dong

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  • Making sense of the markets this week: July 7, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: July 7, 2024 – MoneySense

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    Prediction: Tesla will finish the year down 30%

    Let’s wait and see how this one goes. If I wrote this column a week ago, I would have said Tesla looked like an excellent bet to be down 30% by year end. But shares jumped more than 10% this week on its positive second-quarter news. Despite the high numbers for vehicle deliveries, it has been a volatile year for Tesla shareholders, with prices down 42% at one point. Our central thesis was that decreased profit margins and increased competition would lead to lower profit projections. That still feels solid to me. 

    Prediction: Crypto might be volatile, but could finish 2024 up 50%

    This one hit the bullseye. After going on a tear in February, bitcoin was down almost 20% between mid-March and the beginning of May. 

    Source: Google Finance

    Overall, bitcoin only has to go up slightly over the next six months to meet that 50% return prediction. Of course, I believe the asset will be ultimately worth very little in the long term. Admittedly, I’m quite skeptical about crypto.

    Prediction: U.S. election in November will be chaotic

    We also predicted that this election year would be more chaotic than most, even though U.S. election years are historically quite positive for U.S. stock markets. We shied away from making too many specific predictions about how a Biden/Trump victory would impact stock-market prices, but said many market-watchers would be cheering for a split government. 

    Well, it’s certainly been chaotic in the headlines. As the rest of the world watches in disbelief, the 2024 U.S. election has so far proven to be the most volatile campaign in recent memory—and maybe of all time. At this point, betting markets think it’s a coin toss as to whether Biden even makes it as the Democratic Party nominee. Ordinarily, a political candidate running against a convicted felon would be an easy win. Then again, ordinarily, a candidate running against an incumbent whose own party isn’t sure he’s still right for the job would be an easy win as well.

    Given all the variables, we don’t even know how to measure the degree of accuracy of this prediction. We did reluctantly predict a very slim Biden victory, and that doesn’t look like such a great prognostication now that Trump is a fairly strong betting favourite. However, our strong feeling was that a split government would lead to a robust end of the year for U.S. stocks. That scenario could still be very much in play. We’re going to wait to fully assess this one.

    What’s left of 2024?

    After a very accurate round of 2023 predictions, we were statistically unlikely to repeat the feat in 2024. While we may have called it wrong about U.S. tech, I think there’s a good chance we’re going to get the big picture stuff right—by the end of the year. Despite a ton of negative headlines and general “bad vibes” over the last six months, one of my big takeaways is that the world’s stock markets (and especially America’s) should continue to reward patient Canadian investors.

    Read more about investing:



    About Kyle Prevost


    About Kyle Prevost

    Kyle Prevost is a financial educator, author and speaker. He is also the creator of 4 Steps to a Worry-Free Retirement, Canada’s DIY retirement planning course.

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    Kyle Prevost

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  • Making sense of the markets this week: June 30, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: June 30, 2024 – MoneySense

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    If the summer heat doesn’t get you, inflation will

    Canadians hoping for interest rate relief will likely have to wait a bit longer. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for May came in at 2.9%, according to Statistics Canada. 

    The money markets predict a 45% chance that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut rates at its July 24 meeting. Lowering interest rates after a month of renewed inflation worries would carry a large credibility risk for the BoC, after it raised rates so quickly to restore faith that it would tame inflation over the long term.

    CPI May 2024 highlights

    Here are some notable takeaways from the CPI report:

    • May’s overall 2.9% CPI increase was 0.2% higher than April’s 2.7% CPI increase.
    • Renters in Canada continue to get slammed, as the year-over-year increase in rent was 8.9%.
    • Mortgage interest costs also massively grew, by 23.3%.
    • Core CPI (stripping out volatile items such as gas and groceries) was 2.85%.
    • The cost of travel also jumped, with airfare up 4.5% and tours up 6.9%.
    • Gasoline costs were up 5.6%.
    • In slightly better news, grocery prices were only up 1.5% year-over-year, but they’re up 22.5% since May 2020.
    • Cell phone services continue to be a bright spot for deflation, as they are down 19.4% since May 2023.

    We’re sure the BoC was hoping for inflation to be closer to 2.5%, which would allow it to justify cutting interest rates and point to a stronger downward trend for inflation. Continuing to balance long-term growth and full employment versus controlled inflation isn’t going to get easier anytime soon for BoC governor Tiff Macklem and his team. 

    For now, savers will continue to benefit from higher interest rates, like those of guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) and high-interest savings accounts (HISAs), while borrowers keep hoping for relief sooner rather than later. And, of course, to read about how to invest in a high-inflation world, see our article on the best low-risk investments at MillionDollarJourney.com.

    FedEx delivers, Nike just doesn’t do it

    It was a tale of two extremes in U.S. earnings this week as FedEx shareholders became quite happy, while Nike investors were down in the dumps.

    U.S. earnings highlights

    This is what came out of the earnings reports this week. Both Nike and FedEx report in U.S. dollars.

    • Nike (NKE/NYSE): Earnings per share of $1.01 (versus $0.83 predicted). Revenue of $12.61 billion (versus $12.84 predicted).
    • FedEx (FDX/NYSE): Earnings per share of $5.41 (versus $5.35 predicted). Revenue of $22.11 billion (versus $22.08 billion predicted).

    Nike finance chief Matthew Friend found himself in an odd position on his earnings call with analysts on Thursday. On one hand, Nike’s effort to reduce costs by shedding 1,500 jobs is paying off, and earnings per share came in substantially higher than experts predicted. On the other hand, declining sales in China and “increased macro uncertainty” were cited as reasons for a predicted sales drop of 10% in the next quarter. Investors chose to see the half-empty part of the glass, as shares plunged more than 12% in after-hours trading.

    Friend attempted to put the downward forecast in perspective: “While our outlook for the near term has softened, we remain confident in Nike’s competitive position in China in the long term.” Nike highlighted running, women’s apparel and the Jordan brand as growth areas to watch going forward.

    FedEx had a much better day, as shares were up more than 15% after it announced earnings on Tuesday. Future earnings projections were up on the news of increased cost-cutting efforts that will save the company about $4 billion over the next two years. FedEx announced possible increased profit margins as a result of consolidating its air and ground services.

    Cash-strapped consumers pinch Couche-Tard

    Canada’s 13th-largest company, the gas and convenience store empire known as Alimentation Couche-Tard, announced its earnings on Tuesday.

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    Kyle Prevost

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  • Why Is The Bitcoin Price Down Today?

    Why Is The Bitcoin Price Down Today?

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    The Bitcoin price is in a decline once more, after seeing some recovery on Wednesday due to the turnaround in the Spot Bitcoin ETFs net flows. However, just one day later, it seems the pioneer cryptocurrency has resumed the downtrend and this decline after the recovery has begun a worrying trend. So, what are the factors that are driving this decline?

    Bitcoin Price Suffers From Sell-Offs

    One of the major factors that have been behind the Bitcoin decline is the major sell-offs that have rocked the digital asset. These sell-offs are not just from any investor, but rather large BTC sells being orchestrated by large governments.

    Related Reading

    One of the major news that rocked the space was the fact that the German government had begun selling coins. In total, the German government sold around 2,786 BTC, which was worth around $$140 million at the time of the sale.

    However, the German government is not the only one that has been selling. News also broke that the US government had begun moving Bitcoin seized from the Silk Road bust once again. On-chain data aggregator Arkham reported that the US government had moved almost 4,000 BTC from its wallets to the Coinbase exchange.

    In total, the US government moved 3,940 BTC to the exchange, which amounted to $241.22 million at the time of the transaction. This transfer is worrying as coins are usually moved to centralized exchanges such as Coinbase for sale as these trading platforms possess deeper liquidity compared to their decentralized counterparts.

    Has BTC Reached Its Bottom?

    While the downtrend looks to have resumed, there are signs that point to the bottom being closed. One of these signs is the return of demand into the market. For example, the Spot Bitcoin ETFs had seen seven consecutive days of outflows, which eventually turned around on Tuesday. Data from Coinglass shows that between Tuesday and Wednesday, inflows into the Spot Bitcoin ETFs have crossed $50 million, ending the brutal week of outflows.

    Related Reading

    Another possible tell is the profit and loss margin for investors. This shows how many Bitcoin investors are currently seeing profit, and the higher the profitability, the higher the likelihood of a sell-off as investors take profit from their positions.

    However, the profitability levels have dropped, meaning that investors are less likely to sell their holdings as they wait for better prices. This often gives demand time to build up and create a possible bounce point for a recovery.

    For now, the Bitcoin price is holding steady at the $61,000 support at the time of writing. But if sell-offs resume, then the pioneer cryptocurrency could fall to the $60,000 level soon.

    Bulls reclaim control of BTC price | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

    Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Scott Matherson

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  • Making sense of the markets this week: June 23, 2024 – MoneySense

    Making sense of the markets this week: June 23, 2024 – MoneySense

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    We’re building more houses—and prices are down!

    On Monday, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation announced housing starts rose from 241,111 units in April to 264,506 units in May: good for a 10% increase. The pace was highest in Montreal, where starts were up 104%, and in Toronto, they were notably up 47%. That’s a pretty good clip, considering how high interest rates are at the moment.

    While it would be statistically correct to say that this level of housing starts is near historically high levels, that doesn’t quite tell the whole story.

    Source: Statista.com

    To get a more accurate historical perspective, we should consider the housing starts per capita over the years. After all, Canada’s higher population should mean more capital, carpenters, electricians and other factors of production that go into housing creation, right?

    Line graph of housing starts per person in Canada from 1949 to 2021
    Source: Brent Bellamy on X

    Perhaps we’re moving in the right direction, but we’ll need a major uptick in housing starts before we have proportionately the same housing creation numbers as we did back in the heyday of the 1970s. Many young Canadians are hoping recent government incentives will spur more housing development sooner rather than later.

    While there is more housing supply on the way, it appears that high interest rates continue to affect the current market. This week, the Canadian Real Estate Association released data that revealed total Canadian home sales were down nearly 6% in May on a year-over-year basis. The average home price slipped to $699,117, down 4% from May 2023 and about 14.4% from its peak in February 2022.

    Line graph of seasonally adjusted composite benchmark home prices in Canada
    Source: Better Dwelling

    While the small interest rate cut earlier this month may spark some renewed appetite in the real estate market, it’s notable that the number of newly listed properties has jumped 28.4% from this time last year. As more mortgage renewals start to come up, it will be interesting to see which force is stronger: the increase in demand as mortgage rates decrease, or the continued softening of the market as more folks are forced to list houses they can no longer afford (as well as more new units being added).

    What does the average Canadian buy?

    Each month, Statistics Canada produces  an inflation report based on the consumer price index (CPI), a representative “basket” of goods and services across eight categories (food, shelter, transportation, etc.) whose prices are tracked over time. Most of us simply accept that the CPI is a good measurement to go by, while others think it’s out of touch with reality. This week, the CPI got its annual update, after the Statistics Canada team looked at how average consumer preferences have changed over the last 12 months. 

    The CPI can’t stay the same from year to year because what we buy changes significantly over time. Consequently, measuring inflation with exactly the same goods from years ago doesn’t make much sense. For example, compact discs and videocassettes would have been part of the CPI basket back in my childhood—probably not so much today. Here are some of the more notable changes:

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    Kyle Prevost

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