Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a “Morning Meeting” livestream at 10:20 a.m. ET. Here’s a recap of Tuesday’s key moments. 1. The S & P Short Range Oscillator signaled a very overbought market even as the S & P 500 tracked modestly lower. We’ll see at the close whether the index’s eight-session winning streak will be broken. This is not a time to buy, Jim Cramer said. “You can only sell.” We trimmed Morgan Stanley after a nice run . On Monday, we exited Estee Lauder . After its recent rally and ahead of a baby formula trial, Jim suggested Abbott Laboratories could be trimmed. That gives us “optionality to buy Abbott if it goes down,” he added. Following solid earnings and a subsequent 8% stock rise, Jim said that trimming Palo Alto Networks might not be a bad idea, given its run higher. 2. Advanced Micro Devices rose another 1% on Tuesday, one day after announcing a deal to buy hyperscaler ZT Systems. The purpose of the deal is to expand its portfolio of AI chips and hardware to compete with fellow Club name Nvidia . “ZT makes it so they’re competitive. It’s a very important deal,” Jim explained. Investors are calling this acquisition an “acqui-hire” since AMD said plans to sell ZT’s manufacturing unit but retain 1,000 of its engineers. “They don’t have good training, meaning they need more data,” Jim added. “They need these engineers really badly.” 3. JPMorgan retail analyst Matthew Boss raised his price target on TJX Companies on Tuesday to $126 per share from $125. But he estimated that the end of TJX’s most recent quarter may not be that great. Jim agrees with Boss’ assessment. “You know I think it’s terrific,” Jim said, referring to TJX stock. But he added, “I would probably let some go if we weren’t restricted.” Shares of TJX, the off-price retailer behind T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, are up 20% year-to-date. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long MS, ABT, AMD, TJX. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
It’s been another great run for stocks since the Club’s last monthly meeting in June. The likelihood the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates sooner than later after recent upbeat inflation data pushed stocks to new highs over the past few weeks. Traders now see the odds of a rate cut by September at 100% , according to the CME FedWatch tool . The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached an all-time intraday high on Tuesday, while the S & P 500 did the same Monday. On July 11, the Nasdaq Composite hit new a new high as well. Taking advantage of the overbought market, we’ve executed a series of trades. The Club offloaded shares of TJX Companies on Friday in order to raise some additional cash. Before that, we made sales of Meta Platforms and Palo Alto Networks on July 8, locking in massive gains of 150% and 94%, respectively, since we first purchased both. On the flip side, we’ve looked for opportunities during the tech pullback. We started by initiating a small position in Advanced Micro Devices , a stock we most recently owned in the summer of 2023, and bought more on Tuesday. Through all the portfolio action, a key theme has emerged in the stock market, especially over the past week. Investors are jumping on the chance to get in on sectors outside of Big Tech. The Russell 2000 , which measures the performance of small-cap U.S. stocks, jumped nearly 11% in the past five sessions. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq edged 0.18% lower over the period. Case in point: Some of our biggest winners in 2024, mega-cap stocks like Amazon , Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft posted losses since our last meeting. Amazon is still up 27% for the year, while Alphabet and Meta jumped 31% and 38%, respectively. Other losers included our stocks with heavy ties to China: Wynn Resorts , Starbucks and Estee Lauder . All said, 12 of the portfolio’s 34 stocks were in the red. We see the market rotation playing out in our top-five performing names as well. From the June 27 close through Tuesday, only one company is in mega-cap tech. Here’s our top five and what’s driving the gains for each: 1. Ford Motor: 17.7% There wasn’t a single catalyst for Ford Motor’s outperformance. Investor sentiment, however, looks to have improved on signs that sales are picking up. Shares of the automaker rose on July 3 after the company said hybrid vehicle sales surged 56% in the second quarter, which set a new quarterly sales record for the segment. On July 11, the stock jumped again after June’s consumer price index (CPI) print indicated easing inflation and strengthened the Fed’s case to lower rates — an environment that could lead to more consumers buying Ford’s vehicles. The stock reached a 52-week high of $14.43 apiece on Monday. 2. Morgan Stanley: 10.9% Would a second presidency for Donald Trump benefit big U.S. banks? Investors in Morgan Stanley seem to think so. Shares advanced after President Joe Biden and Trump squared off during the June 27 presidential debate , which many viewed as a big win for the former president. Morgan Stanley’s momentum continued into July and hit an all-time high of $109.11 on Tuesday after the bank posted a largely better-than-expected second quarter report . We raised our price target to $120 from $98 apiece after results. 3. Stanley Black & Decker: 10.5% Stanley Black & Decker shares surged on recent signs of forthcoming monetary policy easing, which could spur housing market activity because of lower borrowing costs. More homeowners means more demand for the DeWalt parent’s offerings as buyers look for tools needed to fix things around the house. This, along with investors looking for pockets outside of Big Tech, have sent the stock higher since July 1. Shares of the company climbed 3.5% on Tuesday, and the Club capitalized of the stock’s advance, trimming our position in the afternoon. To be sure, we still see long-term gains ahead once the Fed starts to cut. 4. Apple: 9.7% Apple hit a record high of $237.23 apiece on Monday after Morgan Stanley listed the stock as a top industry pick. The Wall Street analysts said that the company’s artificial intelligence efforts will cause a much-needed upgrade cycle for the company’s flagship iPhone. Morgan Stanley also hiked Apple’s price target to $273 apiece from $213, a more than 16% upside from Tuesday’s close. It’s not like the stock was stalled: Shares have been climbing for months on excitement about Apple’s AI plans, which were recently unveiled at the company’s worldwide developers conference on June 10. 5. Dover: 7.3% Dover began its ascent higher on July 9 as capital rotated into sectors that benefit more from interest rate cuts. Dover is an industrial name, producing thermal connectors that are used in one of the fastest-growing end markets: data centers. This makes Dover a great under-the-radar AI play. “Dover is going to be a big name for me,” Jim said recently. Shares hit an all-time high Tuesday of $190.54 each, and closed the day nearly 3% higher. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
A trader works, as a screen broadcasts a news conference by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2024.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
It’s been another great run for stocks since the Club’s last monthly meeting in June.
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. (We’re no longer recording the audio, so we can get this new written feature to members as quickly as possible.) Market check: Stocks surged Wednesday afternoon after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the end of its latest two-day meeting. According to their post-meeting statement, central bankers noted a “lack of further progress” in bringing inflation down to their 2% target. Fed chief Jerome Powell reiterated that concern at his news conference. Powell said that rate cuts would be considered when the Fed feels inflation is on its way to target. “We feel our policy stance is in a good place” and appropriately restrictive, he added. Early in 2024, expectations in the market were for as many as six cuts. Now, there are questions about whether there will be any cuts this year. April, which has historically been one of the stronger months of the year for the market, was rough. Monthly declines in the Dow , the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq broke five-month winning streaks for the three major stock benchmarks. While April overall was terrible, there were some big winners in the Club’s portfolio, including Alphabet up nearly 8%. Before last week’s strong quarter, CNBC learned that Alphabet’s Google had laid off hundreds of employees from so-called core teams. The reorg includes moving some roles to India and Mexico. Crude sinks: U.S. oil prices sank roughly 3% to under $80 per barrel Wednesday. That’s about a seven-week low on West Texas Intermediate crude . The reasons: stockpiles surged on lackluster demand as the U.S. and its international partners continue to push for a ceasefire between the Israelis and Hamas in Gaza. WTI has fallen 9% from its intraday high for the year of $87.67 per barrel. Our lone oil-and-gas stock, Coterra Energy , was down 2% on Wednesday. It’s set to report quarterly results after the close Thursday. Cruise IPO: Viking Holdings shares rose 10% in its debut as a public company Wednesday. The cruise line company Tuesday evening priced roughly 64 million shares at $24 each — toward the higher of the expected range. Viking is the latest in a recent revival of the long-dormant initial public offerings market. The IPO comeback of late has boosted the investment banking arms of Wall Street banks. Morgan Stanley is one of the lead underwriters of the Viking offering. Last month, the Club name delivered a much-needed rebound quarter . Investment banking revenue at Morgan Stanley rose 16% year over year, driven by IPO business. These deals must succeed to entice more private companies to become public, which is crucial to Morgan Stanley. Biggest winners: DuPont was the Club’s biggest winner Wednesday, jumping more than 7% after the chemicals company beat on quarterly earnings and raised guidance. DuPont’s semiconductor business rose 10%, and we see plenty of runway for growth next year thanks to artificial intelligence. GE Healthcare was next, rising nearly 2% after Tuesday’s 14% earnings-driven decline , which we thought was an overreaction. Amazon was our third-best stock, gaining more than 1.5% Wednesday following the e-commerce and cloud giant’s great quarter and what we think was conservative guidance. “There’s no incentive in giving some pie in the sky number,” Jim said during the Morning Meeting . Biggest losers: Starbucks was our biggest loser Wednesday following the terrible quarter and outlook that was out the evening before. Jim blasted the Starbucks CEO in a morning CNBC interview, saying he was “stunned” by Laxman Narasimhan’s lack of awareness of how bad things are at the coffee giant. Estee Lauder was next, dropping 14% after light guidance and worries about China overshadowed quarterly beats. Nvidia was our third-weakest stock Wednesday, dropping more than 5%. The AI chip giant enjoyed a 15% bump last week on all the spending plans from Big Tech. While inching higher Monday, Nvidia also was down 1.5% Tuesday. Club earnings : In a busy week with quarterly reports from 12 portfolio stocks, Thursday brings morning earnings from Linde , Stanley Black & Decker and Bausch Health . After the bell Thursday, Apple is out with its quarter following a bump earlier this week tied to an upgrade from the often-skeptical Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi. Apple has had a rough year, but Sacconaghi sees the pullback as an “attractive entry point.” Jim said the call is ill-advised, and we must wait for the release to see where Apple might go from here. As mentioned earlier, Coterra is also out with earnings Thursday evening, but the post-release conference call won’t be until Friday morning. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. (We’re no longer recording the audio, so we can get this new written feature to members as quickly as possible.)
Stocks hit a rough patch after the Club’s March Monthly Meeting as Wall Street grappled with increasing odds of higher-for-longer interest rates. The S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 3%, respectively, from the close on the March 27 meeting day through Tuesday’s session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite experienced a more-than-4% loss during the period. The losses would have been steeper if not for the strong start to this week. On Monday, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq snapped six-day losing streaks and followed that up with additional gains Tuesday. The sell-off had dragged the market into oversold territory, according to the S & P 500 Short Range Oscillator. That prompted the Club put its arsenal of cash to work , selectively purchasing shares of high-quality companies at attractive levels. After Tuesday’s gains, the market is no longer oversold, according to the S & P Oscillator. Here are our five top-performing stocks since the March Monthly Meeting. They span four sectors, ranging from financials to tech. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date performance Wells Fargo led the way, with shares jumping 5.8% over the period. The stock received a nice boost following the bank’s first-quarter earnings release — albeit on a delayed reaction. Wells Fargo beat on the top-and-bottom lines and disclosed a sizeable increase in stock buybacks during the period compared with the fourth quarter. “Talk about a vote of confidence,” Jim Cramer said after the results, referring to the boost in buybacks. The Club also was upbeat on management’s remarks about fee-based incomes growing as a percentage of Wells Fargo’s total revenue. Jim argued that fees reduce volatility and provide a great form of annuity for the bank. GOOGL YTD mountain Alphabet (GOOGL) year-to-date performance Alphabet stock rose 4.9% since the March Monthly Meeting, placing the Google parent in second place on the gainers list. Investor sentiment improved leading up to a string of generative artificial intelligence-related announcements during the company’s cloud-computing summit , Google Cloud Next. Most notably, Alphabet on April 9 announced a new Arm -based server chip and several generative AI service offerings. The event gave the Club more assurance of the company’s ability to compete in the heated AI arms race among Big Tech players. Shares hit an all-time high of $159.41 apiece on April 11, the final day of Google Cloud Next. The stock gave back some of those gains in the sessions that followed, but it is still less than 1% below its record peak. It closed Tuesday at $158.86 per share. PANW YTD mountain Palo Alto Networks (PANW) year-to-date performance Palo Alto Networks occupies the No. 3 spot, with shares advancing 4% since the March 27 close. The gains are welcome for the stock, which continues to trade well below where it did before a brutal post-earnings sell-off in late February. Although we don’t see one individual catalyst for the recent upswing, the Club holding continues to benefit from signs of increased demand for its cybersecurity offerings as the threat environment remains elevated. On March 30, for example, AT & T said that the telecommunications company was looking into a leak that resulted in millions of customers’ data getting published on the dark web. “Buy some Palo Alto on this,” Jim said after the high-profile cybersecurity incident. “We like that [stock.]” During the Club’s March Monthly Meeting, Jim told members that he’s tempted to add to our position if the stock falls under $280 per share — and we did just that April 8, picking up 25 shares around $268 each . EL YTD mountain Estee Lauder (EL) year-to-date performance Estee Lauder stock added 2.7% since the March Monthly Meeting, occupying the fourth spot on our list. Shares of the embattled cosmetics retailer have benefited from a slew of bullish Wall Street calls. On March 28, Bank of America upgraded the stock to a buy rating from hold, arguing Estee Lauder’s earnings have bottomed. The firm also raised its price target to $170 per share from $160. A few days later, Citigroup boosted the stock’s rating to buy from hold, adding that the company’s top line also is nearing an inflection point. On Thursday, we issued an upgrade of our own and added to our position that day , with the stock having essentially given up most of its post-earnings gains earlier in 2024. Estee Lauder remains a high-risk and volatile situation, but we’re hopeful that CEO Fabrizio Freda has finally righted the ship. Freda said during Estee Lauder’s most-recent earnings report that the company would return to profitability in the second half of the fiscal 2024 year. DHR YTD mountain Danaher (DHR) year-to-date performance Danaher rounds out the Club’s top performer’s list at No. 5 — and its 7.3% surge after earnings Tuesday is the reason for its inclusion. Overall, Danaher rose 1.7% since the March gathering The life sciences and diagnostics company posted earnings beats across its three main businesses. The results indicated the turnaround in the biotech industry has arrived, which should continue to support orders for Danaher’s offerings. “I have waited and waited and waited for this company to have the inflection, and this is the inflection,” Jim said Tuesday. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long GOOGL, WFC, PANW, EL, DHR. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on April 10, 2024 in New York City. As new inflation data released today showed a continued rise, stocks fell across the board with the Dow falling over 400 points.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
Stocks hit a rough patch after the Club’s March Monthly Meeting as Wall Street grappled with increasing odds of higher-for-longer interest rates.
As consumers watch their wallets, companies have felt pressure from investors to do the same. Executives have sought to show shareholders that they’re adjusting to consumer demand as it returns to typical patterns or even softens, as well as aggressively countering higher expenses.
Airlines, automakers, media companies and package giant UPS are all digesting new labor contracts that gave raises to tens of thousands of workers and drove costs higher.
Companies in years past could get away with passing on higher costs to customers who were willing to splurge on everything from new appliances to beach vacations. But businesses’ pricing power has waned, so executives are looking for other ways to manage the budget â or squeeze out more profits, said Gregory Daco, chief economist for EY.
“You are in an environment where cost fatigue is very much part of the equation for consumers and business leaders,” Daco said. “The cost of most everything is much higher than it was before the pandemic, whether it’s goods, inputs, equipment, labor, even interest rates.”
There are some exceptions to the recent cost-cutting wave: Walmart, for example, said last month that it would build or convert more than 150 stores over the next five years, along with a more than $9 billion investment to modernize many of its current stores.
And some companies, such as banks, already made deep cuts. Five of the largest banks, including Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, together eliminated more than 20,000 jobs in 2023. Now, they’re awaiting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve that would free up cash for pent-up mergers and acquisitions.
But cost reductions unveiled in even just the first few weeks of the year amount to tens of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars. In January, U.S. companies announced 82,307 job cuts, more than double the number in December, while still down 20% from a year ago, according to Challenger, Gray and Christmas.
And the tightening of months prior is already showing up in financial reports.
So far this earnings season, results have indicated that companies have focused on driving profits higher without the tailwind of big price increases and sales growth.
As of mid-February, more than three-quarters of the S&P 500 had reported fourth-quarter results, with far more earnings beats than revenue beats. The quarter’s earnings, measured by a composite of S&P 500 companies, are on pace to rise nearly 10%. Revenues, however, are up a more modest 3.4%.
And the layoffs haven’t been contained to tech. UPS said it was axing 12,000 jobs, saving the company $1 billion, CEO Carol Tome said late last month, citing softer demand. Many of the largest retail, media and entertainment companies have also announced workforce reductions, in addition to other cuts.
Warner Bros. Discovery has slashed content spending and headcount as part of $4 billion in total cost savings from the merger of Discovery and WarnerMedia. Disney initially promised $5.5 billion in cost reductions in 2023, fueled by 7,000 layoffs. The company has since increased its savings promise to $7.5 billion, and executives suggested in its Feb. 7 quarterly earnings report that it may exceed that target.
JetBlue Airways, which hasn’t posted an annual profit since before the pandemic, is deferring about $2.5 billion in capital expenditures on new Airbus planes to the end of the decade, culling unprofitable routes and redeploying aircraft in addition to the worker buyouts.
Some cuts are even making their way to the front of the cabin. United Airlines, which also posted a profit in 2023, at the start of this year said it would serve first-class meals only on flights more than 900 miles, up from 800 miles previously. “On flights that are 301 to 900 miles, United First customers can expect an offering from the premium snack basket,” according to an internal post.
Several of the country’s largest automakers, such as General Motors and Ford Motor, have lowered spending by billions of dollars through reduced or delayed investments on all-electric vehicles. The U.S.-based companies as well as others, such as Netherlands-based Stellantis, have recently reduced headcount and payroll through voluntary buyouts or layoffs.
Even Chipotle, which reported more foot traffic and sales at its restaurants in the most recently reported quarter, is chasing higher productivity by testing an avocado-scooping robot called the Autocado that shortens the time it takes to make guacamole. It’s also testing another robot that can put together burrito bowls and salads. The robots, if expanded to other stores, could help cut costs by minimizing food waste or reducing the number of workers needed for those tasks.
Industry experts have chalked up some recent cuts to companies catching their breath â and taking a hard look at how they operate â after an unusual four-year stretch caused by the pandemic and its fallout.
EY’s Daco said the past few years have been marked by a mismatch in supply and demand when it comes to goods, services and even workers.
Customers went on shopping sprees, fueled by government stimulus and less experience-related spending. Airlines saw demand disappear and then skyrocket. Companies furloughed workers in the early pandemic and then struggled to fill jobs.
He said he expects companies this year to “search for an equilibrium.”
“You’re seeing a rebalancing happening in the labor markets, in the capital markets,” he said. “And that rebalancing is still going to play out and gradually lead to a more sustainable environment of lower inflation and lower interest rates, and perhaps a little bit slower growth.”
The auto industry, for example, faced a supply issue during much of the Covid pandemic but is now facing a potential demand problem. Inventories of new vehicles are rising â surpassing 2.5 million units and 71 days’ supply toward the end of 2023, up 57% year over year, according to Cox Automotive â forcing automakers to extend more discounts in an effort to move cars and trucks off dealer lots.
Automakers have also been contending with slower-than-expected adoption of EVs.
David Silverman, a retail analyst at Fitch Ratings, said companies are “feeling a bit heavy as sales growth moderates and maybe even declines.”
Cost cuts at UPS, Hasbro and Levi all followed sales declines in the most recent fiscal quarter. Macy’s, which reports earnings later this month, has said it expects same-store sales to drop, and there’s early evidence that may come to bear: Consumers pulled back on spending in January, with retail sales falling 0.8%, more than economists expected, according to the latest federal data.
Most major retailers, including Walmart, Target and Home Depot, will report earnings in the coming weeks.
Credit ratings agency Fitch said it doesn’t expect the U.S. economy to tip into recession, but it does anticipate a continued pullback in discretionary spending.
“Part of companies’ decision to lower their expense structure is in line with their views that 2024 may not be a fantastic year from a top-line-growth standpoint,” Silverman said.
Plus, he added, companies have had to find cash to fund investments in newer technology such as infrastructure that supports e-commerce, a resilient supply chain or investments in artificial intelligence.
Companies may have another reason to cut costs now, too. As they see other companies shrinking the size of their workforces or budgets, there’s safety in numbers.
Or as Silverman noted, “layoffs beget layoffs.”
“As companies have started to announce them it becomes normalized,” he said. “There’s less of a stigma.”
Even with rolling layoffs, the labor market remains strong, which may help explain why Wall Street has by and large rewarded those companies that have found areas to save and returned profits to shareholders.
Shares of Meta, for example, almost tripled in price in 2023 in that “year of efficiency,” making the stock the second-best gainer in the S&P 500, behind only Nvidia. After laying off more than 20,000 workers in 2023, Meta on Feb. 2 announced its first-ever dividend and said it expanded its share buyback authorization by $50 billion.
UPS, fresh from job cuts, said it would raise its quarterly dividend by a penny.
Overall, dividends paid by companies in the S&P 500 rose 5.05% last year, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, and he estimated they will likely increase nearly 5.3% this year.
â CNBC’s Michael Wayland, Alex Sherman, Robert Hum, Amelia Lucas and Jonathan Vanian contributed to this story.
Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.
Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer of Facebook Inc.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Former Meta operating chief Sheryl Sandberg is leaving the company’s board of directors.
“With a heart filled with gratitude and a mind filled with memories, I let the Meta board know that I will not stand for reelection this May,” Sandberg wrote in a Facebook post on Wednesday.
Sandberg, 54, joined Facebook in 2008 as Mark Zuckerberg’s top deputy after spending about seven years at Google. In 2012, she became a board member at the company. During her tenure, Facebook rose from a highflying startup to become one of the most valuable companies in the world, topping a $1 trillion market cap at its peak in 2021.
Sandberg announced her departure from Meta in mid-2022, following multiple controversies that dogged the company and sullied its reputation among users, lawmakers and investors. Most notably, Facebook was central to the spread of disinformation ahead of the 2016 election and during the early days of the Covid pandemic in 2020. The company has also been in the subject of antitrust investigations and was scrutinized in Sandberg’s waning days for its insufficient efforts to combat hate on its platform.
When Sandberg stepped down as Meta COO in June 2022, she was replaced by Javier Olivan, who had been serving as Meta’s chief growth officer.
Since leaving Meta, Sandberg has dedicated much of her time on her LeanIn.org nonprofit, which focuses on empowering women tin the workplace, and related projects.
“I wanted my new chapter to be able to really make a difference,” Sandberg told CNBC Make It in August. “We’ve been in development on this since I was at Meta, but being able to have the time to put into [this launch] and to really be … a bigger part of this has meant a lot to me.”
Shortly after Sandberg’s post, Zuckerberg responded with a short reply.
“Thank you Sheryl for the extraordinary contributions you have made to our company and community over the years,” Zuckerberg wrote. “Your dedication and guidance have been instrumental in driving our success and I am grateful for your unwavering commitment to me and Meta over the years. I look forward to this next chapter together!”
Meta technology chief Adam Bosworth wrote, “Amazing run Sheryl, thank you so much for everything you did for all of us and also for me personally.”
Meta’s board consists of Zuckerberg, who serves as chairman, as well as former PayPal Executive Vice President Peggy Alford, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, Dropbox CEO Drew Houston, former McKinsey & Company senior partner Nancy Killefer, former U.S. deputy secretary of the treasury Robert M. Kimmitt, DoorDash CEO Tony Xu and Tracey T. Travis, a former CFO at Estée Lauder.
Here’s the full text of Sandberg’s post:
With a heart filled with gratitude and a mind filled with memories, I let the Meta board know that I will not stand for reelection this May. After I left my role as COO, I remained on the board to help ensure a successful transition. Under Mark’s leadership, Javi Olivan, Justin Osofsky, Nicola Mendelsohn, and their teams have proven beyond a doubt that the Meta business is strong and well-positioned for the future, so this feels like the right time to step away. Going forward, I will serve as an advisor to the company, and I will always be there to help the Meta teams.
Serving as Facebook’s – and then Meta’s – COO for 14 ½ years and a board member for 12 years has been the opportunity of a lifetime. I will always be grateful to Mark for believing in me and for his partnership and friendship; he is that truly once-in-a-generation visionary leader and he is equally amazing as a friend who stays by your side through the good times and the bad. I will always be grateful to my colleagues and teammates at Meta for all the years of working side by side and all they taught me. And I am particularly grateful to my fellow Meta board members for their lasting friendships, the guidance they provided me for so many years, and their stewardship of products that mean so much to people all over the world.
Ronald Lauder, heir to the Estee Lauder cosmetics fortune and president of the World Jewish Congress, is seen on Sept. 21, 2022.
Michael Kappeler | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
The billionaire Ronald Lauder has agreed to return a piece of art looted by Nazis from a collector who was later killed in a concentration camp.
Lauder will transfer Austrian expressionist Egon Schiele’s 1912 color drawing “I Love Antithesis” to the Manhattan District Attorney’s office. The piece is worth $2.75 million, according to the D.A.’s office.
Lauder is one of several art collectors and entities who are voluntarily returning seven Schiele artworks to the heirs of Fritz Grunbaum, a Jewish cabaret performer from Austria, through the D.A.’s office.
The combined value of those seven works is over $9.5 million, the prosecutor’s office said.
Lauder, the heir to the Estee Lauder cosmetics fortune and a Republican megadonor, also is the president of the World Jewish Congress.
Grunbaum acquired a collection of 81 Schiele works before he was arrested in Austria in 1938 by the Nazis. He was murdered at the Dachau concentration camp in Germany in 1941.
Lauder acquired the artwork “through an art dealer decades after it was misappropriated” by the Nazis, his spokesperson said.
In a statement, Lauder said, “I am pleased and honored to be able to help Fritz Grünbaum’s heirs continue their laudable efforts to recover his legacy.”
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“I hope that this restitution process brings healing to the Grunbaum family and helps to keep alive the memory of Mr. Grunbaum and his wife Elisabeth, both of whom were murdered in concentration camps during the Holocaust,” said Lauder.
His spokesperson said, “We understand that Mr. Lauder was the first person contacted by the D.A.’s Office who agreed to voluntarily restitute an artwork to the Grunbaum heirs.”
An avid art collector, Lauder co-founded the Neue Galerie in New York, which displays a range of art from Austria and Germany between 1890 and 1940 — including numerous works by Schiele.
The seven artworks being returned had been held by two New York museums, the Museum of Modern Art and the Morgan Library & Museum, and the Santa Barbara Museum of Art in California, along with Lauder and the estate of art collector Serge Sabarsky.
A longtime acquaintance of former President Donald Trump, Lauder gave almost $100,000 to the Republican National Committee in 2019 as it was working to reelect the then-Republican incumbent.
Lauder’s spokesman previously told CNBC he would not back Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.
Grünbaum’s heirs have sought for decades to reclaim multiple Schiele works that he had owned.
A New York civil case in 2018 found that the heirs had proven a right of possession of two Schieles, and an appellate court affirmed that ruling in 2019.
The Club’s 10 things to watch Friday, August 18 1. Stocks are poised to open lower Friday, putting the S & P 500 on track for its third-straight week of losses. This is certainly a moment for investors to exercise patience, as we noted during the Investing Club’s Monthly Meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, the market is finally in oversold territory, per the S & P 500 Short Range Oscillator. 2. Club name Estee Lauder (EL) on Friday posts a small quarterly profit, compared with market expectations of a loss. But the prestige beauty firm’s guidance for adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) for its fiscal year 2024 was in a range of $3.50 to $3.75, well below analysts’ forecasts for $4.88 a share, as travel retail in Asia remains challenged. Still, Estee Lauder expects to return to organic sales growth in fiscal 2024 and deliver sequentially improving margins throughout the year. Shares plummeted nearly 6% in premarket trading, to around $152 apiece. 3. Shares of Applied Materials (AMAT) are rising in premarket trading after the semiconductor-equipment maker topped expectations in its third quarter and provided an upbeat view of the fourth quarter. JPMorgan on Friday raises its price target on the stock to $165 a share, from $145, while maintaining a a buy-equivalent rating. 4. Strong earnings from off-price retailers continues, with Ross Stores (ROST) posting second-quarter EPS of $1.32, ahead of market estimates of $1.16 a share. Even so, the best operator in the space remains Club name TJX Companies (TJX), which delivered a strong quarterly beat and raise on Wednesday. 5. Oppenheimer lowers its price targets on a slate of big banks, including Goldman Sachs (to $461 a share, from $483), Citigroup (to $85 from $88) and Bank of America (to $49 from $52), but maintains a buy-equivalent rating on all three. Oppenheimer notes that the KBW Bank Index (KBX) fell about 30 percentage points relative to the market in the weeks after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, and the group has yet to recover this underperformance despite stable fundamentals. 6. Will there be fireworks tonight after the closing bell when Club name Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reports its earnings and provides an update on its medium-term targets? There’s universal caution here, even with the stock down more than 18% this month, but the market will have a full weekend to digest whatever the cybersecurity leader has to say. 7. Deere & Co. (DE) posts a big EPS beat of $10.20, compared with analysts’ forecasts for $8.19 a share, while raising its full-year outlook. 8. Club name Amazon (AMZN) is reportedly adding a new 2% fee on third-party sellers who use the ecommerce giant’s Seller Fulfilled Prime program, according to Bloomberg. That’s another step that would incrementally help its retail margins. 9. B. Riley on Friday upgrades Marvell Technology (MRVL) to a buy rating, from neutral, thanks to an “expected wave of AI-led growth.” The firm also raised its price target on Marvell to $75 a share, from $60. The chipmaker is scheduled to report quarterly results on Thursday. 10. Evercore ISI previews Club holding Apple ‘s (AAPL) upcoming iPhone 15 launch, set for September. The firm expects the new iPhone will be more evolutionary than revolutionary, but should still drive a so-called device refresh and higher average-selling prices. Historically, Apple tends to outperform the market into its launch events, but that hasn’t been the case so far this year. Sign up for Jim Cramer’s Top 10 Morning Thoughts on the Market email newsletter for free . (See here for a full list of the stocks at Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
1. Stocks are poised to open lower Friday, putting the S&P 500 on track for its third-straight week of losses. This is certainly a moment for investors to exercise patience, as we noted during the Investing Club’s Monthly Meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, the market is finally in oversold territory, per the S&P 500 Short Range Oscillator.
2. Club name Estee Lauder (EL) on Friday posts a small quarterly profit, compared with market expectations of a loss. But the prestige beauty firm’s guidance for adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) for its fiscal year 2024 was in a range of $3.50 to $3.75, well below analysts’ forecasts for $4.88 a share, as travel retail in Asia remains challenged. Still, Estee Lauder expects to return to organic sales growth in fiscal 2024 and deliver sequentially improving margins throughout the year. Shares plummeted nearly 6% in premarket trading, to around $152 apiece.
3. Shares of Applied Materials (AMAT) are rising in premarket trading after the semiconductor-equipment maker topped expectations in its third quarter and provided an upbeat view of the fourth quarter. JPMorgan on Friday raises its price target on the stock to $165 a share, from $145, while maintaining a a buy-equivalent rating.
4. Strong earnings from off-price retailers continues, with Ross Stores (ROST) posting second-quarter EPS of $1.32, ahead of market estimates of $1.16 a share. Even so, the best operator in the space remains Club name TJX Companies (TJX), which delivered a strong quarterly beat and raise on Wednesday.
5. Oppenheimer lowers its price targets on a slate of big banks, including Goldman Sachs (to $461 a share, from $483), Citigroup (to $85 from $88) and Bank of America (to $49 from $52), but maintains a buy-equivalent rating on all three. Oppenheimer notes that the KBW Bank Index (KBX) fell about 30 percentage points relative to the market in the weeks after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, and the group has yet to recover this underperformance despite stable fundamentals.
6. Will there be fireworks tonight after the closing bell when Club name Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reports its earnings and provides an update on its medium-term targets? There’s universal caution here, even with the stock down more than 18% this month, but the market will have a full weekend to digest whatever the cybersecurity leader has to say.
7. Deere & Co. (DE) posts a big EPS beat of $10.20, compared with analysts’ forecasts for $8.19 a share, while raising its full-year outlook.
8. Club nameAmazon (AMZN) is reportedly adding a new 2% fee on third-party sellers who use the ecommerce giant’s Seller Fulfilled Prime program, according to Bloomberg. That’s another step that would incrementally help its retail margins.
9. B. Riley on Friday upgradesMarvell Technology (MRVL) to a buy rating, from neutral, thanks to an “expected wave of AI-led growth.” The firm also raised its price target on Marvell to $75 a share, from $60. The chipmaker is scheduled to report quarterly results on Thursday.
10. Evercore ISI previews Club holding Apple‘s (AAPL) upcoming iPhone 15 launch, set for September. The firm expects the new iPhone will be more evolutionary than revolutionary, but should still drive a so-called device refresh and higher average-selling prices. Historically, Apple tends to outperform the market into its launch events, but that hasn’t been the case so far this year.
(See here for a full list of the stocks at Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.)
As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER. NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
What the heck really did happen on Friday, when the Dow jumped 700 points on a strong jobs reading ? Why such a viscerally positive reaction to an employment number that was hotter than expected? Was it because wages didn’t spike? Was it all that perfect — a Goldilocks report? Here’s my take on Friday’s rally. Going into the debt ceiling crisis, there was a belief that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy couldn’t control his own Republican party. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer wasn’t much better off with the Democrats. Both had lost control of their parties to the extremists. That meant the United States would default on its debt. It seemed pretty logical. I truly believe the extremists never believed a default would mean more than a few weeks of setbacks and more brinkmanship. Who can blame them? President Joe Biden lamely floated that he could invoke the 14th Amendment to avoid this and any future debt limit fights; the amendment includes a clause that some legal scholars say overrides the statutory borrowing limit set by Congress. No matter what, it was pretty clear that chaos was our destiny. But when McCarthy and Biden agreed to temporarily suspend the debt ceiling and cap some federal spending in order to prevent a default, we got a deal that was even less contentious than the 2011 bargain . (The coming together brought to mind the legendary coalition of President Ronald Reagan and House Speaker Tip O’Neil in the 1980s, memorialized in Chris Matthews’ “Tip and the Gipper: When Politics Worked.”) It was the compromise debt limit deal — not the employment number — that caused the market to rally. Sure, the jobs report showed wage inflation was cooling, which is good news in the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation. But the job creation in May and the revisions were insanely strong. What matters most is that Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is far more powerful than the independents on the Fed’s board who have such a hard time keeping their mouths shut, is reasonable. He seems to understand that it’s time to wait a bit on any more rate hikes. Not because he thinks things are cooler, but because he actually doesn’t even know. We have a young workforce coming into the market akin to when I got out of school in 1977 — nary a job to be had anywhere. This is potentially a monumental moment. The new debt limit legislation sets the date for resuming federal student loan repayments, which have been on hold since March 2020. We have the end of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits and other pandemic breaks. Why not wait two months to see if unemployment naturally goes up and wages come down? To sum things up: We came into Friday shocked that there was a shocker of a deal and a not-red-hot employment number (at least one that didn’t send rates higher). This is what triggered the long-awaited buying of stocks outside of the Magnificent Seven that have led the market all year: Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), Apple (AAPL), and Nvidia , which briefly joined the $1 trillion valuation club. We each have our own way of monitoring these things. I used Club name Caterpillar (CAT) as my judge. On Thursday afternoon, CEO Jim Umpleby went into the lion’s den of Sanford Bernstein and told a tale about de-cyclization. Shares of the heavy equipment maker had a tiny snap back. One day later and armed with the budget deal and the employment number, CAT shot up seventeen points — an unheard-of short squeeze. This took the stock back to when it reported a good number that was converted into a bad number by bearish analysts still unwilling to admit that the company had changed its bi-polar ways. Of course, the bears would say that it only went up because of one more silly stimulus by China, this time to adjust rents. I say Caterpillar went up because it was overly shorted, like so much of the market, including retail, health care, financials, other industrials including the commodities (the oils!). We even saw the imperfect chipmakers and heavily challenged enterprise software stocks come alive. The shorts were correct to press their bets if there was no debt deal and we got an employment number that was a steamer. But they were wrong on both counts. This plus a rare wave of new money coming in and massive buybacks by companies capable of plundering after their reports, caused the broadening that had been bemoaned as non-existent as recently as the day before. You could argue it was a short squeeze of monumental proportions. A short squeeze happens when short sellers having to buy stocks to cover their short positions, pushing prices higher. But every time there has been a broadening since FANG, it’s always been called a short squeeze. That’s just how things work, although it’s never been acknowledged by anybody. Which brings us up to date for Monday. We have a blackout of the Fed speakers. We have no real macroeconomic data. We have no landmines of earnings. And no Fed meeting until mid-June. A true interregnum. We are going to have to take more things off the table if we get a rally into an overbought setting. Yes, we have some real stinkers — Disney (DIS), Foot Locker (FL), Emerson Electric (EMR), Estee Lauder (EL) — and we can battle them. But the important thing is that we have so many winners that we have to ring the register on some stocks if all goes our way. Of course I obsess on the losers. I didn’t think that Fabrizio Freda at Estee Lauder and Mary Dillon at Foot Locker could both blow it that badly. I had reason to dislike the Emerson team, but it still gave me more than I can handle. I have no idea how Disney’s stock could be this weak in a long-on-money-short-on-time moment. I am furious at myself for not seeing around any of these corners. But I am not going to throw good money after bad and I see no good on these names — yet. This leaves us with the big question: Which winners to trim? As long as we are not subsidizing losers, we aren’t breaking protocol. But we have two tasks. One is to come up with a new name that hasn’t moved that we actually like. And two is to trim into strength as we get overbought. I want both resolved by our next Club meeting on June 14. That’s what I am working on right now. Do we need so much Salesforce (CRM), even as it reported a good quarter all things considering? Do we even need Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) when it has nothing to rival Nvidia? I just don’t know. I want the market to tell me what to do. I think it will. Where does this leave us? In a sanguine week that will allow us to see if the short squeeze continues. If it does and continues to broaden, we can both peel some winners. See which caterpillars can develop into, well, Caterpillars. Maybe add Take-Two (TTWO), which gave us a two-year outlook, possibly aided by a new Grand Theft Auto game and better Nvidia cards. Just one of many ideas. But one Jeff Marks and I are trying to get our arms around. Some who read might ask: “Shouldn’t there be more of a thesis behind a bullish move?” I say no, no more than you needed in 2011, when the debt ceiling deal led to a fantastic rally because Armageddon was avoided. We cannot sit back and relax. But what we can do is accept that it is a better moment than we thought not that long ago. There are cracks. The Dollar General (DG) call was a compendium of weakness for the lower middle class and the Macy’s (M) call was a confusion of negativity. But who is to say that these companies just don’t have the “it” of Five Below (FIVE) or Lululemon (LULU). We are close enough to the infrastructure money wave to handle another rate hike if we need it. But Powell recognizes the futility of another rate hike right now because it lowers mortgage rates, making his job even harder. What we can do is watch and wait as battlegrounds get resolved — like CAT did on Friday. We can anticipate better things from a Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — especially with a 3M (MMM) deal — and from GE Healthcare (GEHC). We can lick our Estee and Foot Locker wounds. And we can be glad that we got through the debt deal and wax in the wave of new money that will at last be coming in. No, we can’t be complacent. Too many needs for the shorts to save themselves. They have been run over in so many places that they have to make a comeback somewhere. Their number didn’t get so strong before the debt ceiling deal that they can’t all cover at once. Nevertheless, we have enough money to put to work if we want to in a new name that hasn’t moved and has a special situation thesis. But I do not want to be so relieved as to think there is no woods, just that we are out of it for now. Personally, the last few weeks have been hard ones, ameliorated by members who have made money with the club. Some mistakenly believe that we missed this entirely rally. It galls me because I gave up being a hedge fund manager years ago and I know the truth: This may be the best we’ve ever been, and this time it is for you, not the entitled class. I thank you all for letting us have the floor to help and not be tools of the traders who have infiltrated our ranks. So let’s take and make some gains and be ready for the next storm after the calm, wherever it might be coming from. Rest up. We have gotten past the systemic chaos into business as usual, where we can glow in a world where stock picking matters. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
US President Joe Biden, accompanied by Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California, arrives for the annual Friends of Ireland luncheon on St. Patrick’s Day at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on March 17, 2023.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
What the heck really did happen on Friday, when the Dow jumped 700 points on a strong jobs reading? Why such a viscerally positive reaction to an employment number that was hotter than expected? Was it because wages didn’t spike? Was it all that perfect — a Goldilocks report?
Here’s my take on Friday’s rally. Going into the debt ceiling crisis, there was a belief that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy couldn’t control his own Republican party. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer wasn’t much better off with the Democrats. Both had lost control of their parties to the extremists. That meant the United States would default on its debt. It seemed pretty logical.
I truly believe the extremists never believed a default would mean more than a few weeks of setbacks and more brinkmanship. Who can blame them? President Joe Biden lamely floated that he could invoke the 14th Amendment to avoid this and any future debt limit fights; the amendment includes a clause that some legal scholars say overrides the statutory borrowing limit set by Congress.
No matter what, it was pretty clear that chaos was our destiny. But when McCarthy and Biden agreed to temporarily suspend the debt ceiling and cap some federal spending in order to prevent a default, we got a deal that was even less contentious than the 2011 bargain. (The coming together brought to mind the legendary coalition of President Ronald Reagan and House Speaker Tip O’Neil in the 1980s, memorialized in Chris Matthews’ “Tip and the Gipper: When Politics Worked.”)
My top 10 things to watch Thursday, May 4 1. In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by 25 basis points — the 10th rate increase in just over a year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank may pause rate hikes going forward, but did not suggest it would begin cutting anytime soon. The Fed must see weakness in wages to consider pulling back. 2. Regional bank stocks are under pressure, with PacWest Bancorp (PACWP) in focus. Shares of the California lender are down 39% in premarket trading, at just under $4 apiece, and it is reportedly considering a sale. “Leaving rates this high is going to continue this stress,” DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach told CNBC. “I believe with a very high degree of probability there’s going to be further regional bank failures .” 3. The debt-ceiling debacle continues , with the U.S. hurtling towards a June 1 deadline by which it could default on its debt obligations. The 2011 debt standoff offers some lessons for investors. 4. Oil prices fell to their lowest level since Dec. 2021 on concerns over demand and an uneven economic recovery in China, before edging up Thursday. West Texas Intermediate crude — the U.S. oil benchmark — slid nearly 11% over the past three sessions and was flat in morning trading, at around $68 a barrel. 5. Club holding Apple (AAPL) is set to report quarterly results after the closing bell Thursday, with analysts predicting the iPhone maker will announce $90 billion in share buybacks and dividends. We also got a potential readthrough from Club name Qualcomm (QCOM) Wednesday when the chipmaker announced a weaker-than-expected forecast for handsets on the back of slower demand in China. 6. A slate of banks on Thursday lower their price targets on Estee Lauder (EL) after shares of the Club holding plunged more than 20% Wednesday on weak forward guidance. Wells Fargo reduces its price target on the prestige beauty name to $225 per share, from $290, while Citi drops its target to $240 a share, from $295. 7. Mizuho lowers its price target on Club stock Emerson Electric (EMR) to $90 a share, from $103, and maintains a neutral rating, noting moderating demand in the discrete manufacturing market. Emerson on Wednesday delivered a solid fiscal second quarter , while raising its full-year outlook. 8. Citi says Yum! Brands ‘ (YUM) post-earnings selloff is a buying opportunity, with the stock closing down nearly 4% on Wednesday. The firm raises its price target on YUM to $172 a share, from $170, while reiterating a buy rating on the stock. 9. Club holding Costco Wholesale ‘s (COST) same-store sales for April rose 1.4%, compared with a 1.1% decline in March, the retailer reported Wednesday. Truist on Thursday lowers its price target on COST to $568 a share, from $571, but maintains a buy rating on the stock for its “extreme value proposition.” 10. Kellogg (K) delivers better-than expected first-quarter results Thursday, with adjusted earnings-per-share coming in at $1.10, compared with analysts’ forecasts for $1 a share. The food manufacturing company also raises its adjusted-basis operating profit growth to be in a range of more than 8% to more than 10%. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
1. In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by 25 basis points — the 10th rate increase in just over a year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank may pause rate hikes going forward, but did not suggest it would begin cutting anytime soon. The Fed must see weakness in wages to consider pulling back.
2. Regional bank stocks are under pressure, with PacWest Bancorp (PACWP) in focus. Shares of the California lender are down 39% in premarket trading, at just under $4 apiece, and it is reportedly considering a sale. “Leaving rates this high is going to continue this stress,” DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach told CNBC. “I believe with a very high degree of probability there’s going to be further regional bank failures.”
3. The debt-ceiling debacle continues, with the U.S. hurtling towards a June 1 deadline by which it could default on its debt obligations. The 2011 debt standoff offers some lessons for investors.
4. Oil prices fell to their lowest level since Dec. 2021 on concerns over demand and an uneven economic recovery in China, before edging up Thursday. West Texas Intermediate crude — the U.S. oil benchmark — slid nearly 11% over the past three sessions and was flat in morning trading, at around $68 a barrel.
5. Club holding Apple (AAPL) is set to report quarterly results after the closing bell Thursday, with analysts predicting the iPhone maker will announce $90 billion in share buybacks and dividends. We also got a potential readthrough from Club name Qualcomm (QCOM) Wednesday when the chipmaker announced a weaker-than-expected forecast for handsets on the back of slower demand in China.
6. A slate of banks on Thursday lower their price targets on Estee Lauder (EL) after shares of the Club holding plunged more than 20% Wednesday on weak forward guidance. Wells Fargo reduces its price target on the prestige beauty name to $225 per share, from $290, while Citi drops its target to $240 a share, from $295.
7. Mizuho lowers its price target on Club stock Emerson Electric (EMR) to $90 a share, from $103, and maintains a neutral rating, noting moderating demand in the discrete manufacturing market. Emerson on Wednesday delivered a solid fiscal second quarter, while raising its full-year outlook.
8. Citi says Yum! Brands‘ (YUM) post-earnings selloff is a buying opportunity, with the stock closing down nearly 4% on Wednesday. The firm raises its price target on YUM to $172 a share, from $170, while reiterating a buy rating on the stock.
9. Club holding Costco Wholesale‘s (COST) same-store sales for April rose 1.4%, compared with a 1.1% decline in March, the retailer reported Wednesday. Truist on Thursday lowers its price target on COST to $568 a share, from $571, but maintains a buy rating on the stock for its “extreme value proposition.”
10. Kellogg (K) delivers better-than expected first-quarter results Thursday, with adjusted earnings-per-share coming in at $1.10, compared with analysts’ forecasts for $1 a share. The food manufacturing company also raises its adjusted-basis operating profit growth to be in a range of more than 8% to more than 10%.
(See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.)
As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER. NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Here are Friday’s biggest calls on Wall Street: Bank of America reiterates Amazon as buy Bank of America said it’s standing by its buy rating on the stock. “Maintain Buy on Amazon. Three overhangs on stock have been retail margin cuts, AWS revenue deceleration, and potential TAM saturation. [Thursday’s] letter set a positive framework for discussion of these on the 1Q call.” UBS reiterates Netflix as neutral UBS said all eyes will be on the password sharing crackdown when Netflix reports earnings next week. “We expect 1Q to show continued progress toward re-accelerating growth. We believe subs will come in ahead of mgmt’s outlook for ‘modest’ adds, helped by a slower ramp for paid sharing (shifting potential churn into 2Q).” Goldman Sachs upgrades VF Corp to buy from sell Goldman said in its upgrade of the apparel and footwear company that it sees improved profitability. ” VFC’s revenue and earnings trajectory has underperformed the market, but we believe the stock is nearing an inflection point with the balance of catalysts for the stock now weighted to the upside.” Read more about this call here. Piper Sandler downgrades Rivian to neutral from overweight Piper said it still likes the electric vehicle company but that it needs more capital. “In order for RIVN to justify its cost structure, the company must spread its investment over millions of units (just like Tesla does), and in order to finance such aggressive expansion, RIVN will need capital.” Read more about this call here. Mizuho initiates ResMed as buy Mizuho initiated the medical device maker of sleeping machines like CPAP and says ResMed is the “undisputed king of sleep.” “Our Buy rating is based on: 1) positive feedback from our proprietary Sleep survey that points to healthy underlying US volumes, 2) lingering pent-up demand due to US staffing shortages.” UBS reiterates Amazon as buy UBS said it’s standing by its buy rating on the stock but came away from the company’s shareholder letter with less optimism on a “game-changing direction around margins.” ” AMZN’s annual shareholder letter, a defense of investment, underscored the company’s commitment to invest and the breadth of Amazon’s ambitions – from retail and AWS, to content, healthcare, satellite internet, int’l, grocery, and more. A lot to manage. We come away less optimistic on any game-changing direction around margins and still unsettled by a cloudy outlook at AWS.” Citi opens a negative catalyst watch on Harley-Davidson Citi said it sees “increasing credit loss metrics for Harley-Davidson. “Our recent analysis of both securitized receivable delinquencies and used motorcycle pricing point to fewer borrowers making monthly payments and lower recovery values once bikes are repossessed, a recipe for increasing credit loss metrics and eventually a higher loan loss reserve.” Oppenheimer reiterates PulteGroup as a top pick Oppenheimer said the stock is still a favorite idea citing “multiple expansion.” “We expect multiple expansion given a positive backdrop for builders broadly and because PHM likely will have the highest ROE in the space this year.” Cowen reiterates Alphabet as outperform Cowen said it’s bullish heading into Alphabet earnings later this month. “Our 1Q Digital ad expert check call on 4/6 suggests that a resilient US consumer helped drive GOOG 1Q23 Search spend growth near 4Q levels despite NT macro headwinds.” Cowen reiterates Nvidia as outperform Cowen said Nvidia is a leader in AI. ” NVIDIA continues to lead from the front across all the most important AI verticals. Expect continued momentum in results.” JPMorgan upgrades Hello Group to overweight from neutral JPMorgan said in its upgrade of the China messaging and social search company and says it sees a “recovery.” “We upgrade MOMO from N to OW (recovery in 2H23 with better social sentiment).” William Blair reiterates Charles Schwab as outperform William Blair said it’s standing by its outperform rating on the stock heading into earnings next week. “First-quarter results should indicate that earnings momentum is slowing as cash sorting continues. Sorting is reducing sweep cash, which Schwab is replacing to a degree with higher cost short-term funding.” Stifel resumes Kraft Heinz, General Mills and Mondelez as buy Stifel resumed coverage of several food stocks like Kraft Heinz, General Mills and Mondelez and says they are at an inflection point. “While investors remain generally cautious on Food stocks after a strong performance in 2022, we believe the margin inflection could be stronger than expected and elasticity should remain stable and low.” Wells Fargo reiterates Estee Lauder as overweight Wells kept its overweight rating on shares of Estee Lauder and said China cosmetics import data signals a return to growth. “With our data tracking in China improving, and following constructive results from LVMH, we think it’s reasonable to assume a turn in China is underway.” Bank of America reiterates PayPal as buy Bank of America said it’s standing by its buy rating on the stock heading into earnings in early May. “Given ongoing macro cross-currents, we think the most likely scenario is for PYPL to continue providing top-line guidance one quarter at a time.” Barclays reiterates Disney as equal weight Barclays said it sees slowing streaming growth heading into Disney earnings in early May. ” Disney and WBD are both in another strategy transition phase and focused on taking out costs from the streaming business.” Bernstein reiterates Boeing as outperform Bernstein said it’s standing by its outperform rating on the stock after it a 737Max parts issue surfaced on Thursday. “Yesterday it was disclosed that Spirit Aerosystems identified a manufacturing process issue with a fitting used to attach the vertical fin of the 737MAX to the fuselage.” Stifel reiterates Microsoft as buy Stifel said it’s standing by its buy rating on Microsoft heading into earnings later this month. “Looking forward, a year ago management provided its early FY23 double-digit top and bottom line commentary, but we expect a less granular forward guide focused on OPEX vs revenue growth given the ongoing uncertainties within the global economy.” DA Davidson reiterates Deere as buy DA Davidson said the ag equipment company is a “near term buy.” “Ethanol usage does appear stable in the near term, and the megatrends are likely to take 20+ years to play out, making DE a near-term BUY.”
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a “Morning Meeting” livestream at 10:20 a.m. ET. Here’s a recap of Friday’s key moments. Stocks up on final day of Q1 China’s economy is recovering Sen. Warren on bank rules 1. Stocks up on final day of Q1 Stocks rose Friday on the last day of the first quarter after the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric came in cooler-than-expected for February. The S & P 500 , as of Thursday’s close, was on track to gain roughly 5.5% for Q1 — a solid finish after markets grew volatile over investor worries about hot inflation, a tight labor market, and the recent regional banking crisis. The big star of the major tech comeback in 2023 has been the Nasdaq , which was up nearly 15% for the quarter as of Thursday. Nvidia (NVDA) and Meta Platforms (META) were our top two winners in the first three months of the year. The Dow was modestly lower for Q1 as of Thursday but could move into positive territory, depending on where things end up Friday. 2. China’s economy is recovering China on Friday released solid manufacturing and service-sector data for March — more evidence of a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy since Beijing abandoned its zero-Covid policy. These kinds of numbers out of China are positive news for our Club holdings with major exposure to the Chinese consumer: Estee Lauder (EL), Starbucks (SBUX) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN). 3. Sen. Warren on bank rules Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a staunch banking critic, told CNBC Friday she wants to see an increase in the FDIC-insured limit of $250,000 per account. The Massachusetts Democrat sees such a move as a means to mitigate against future banking crises, like the one unfolding since Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed. As it relates to our bank stocks, Wells Fargo (WFC) does not “deserve the punishment” that’s spread throughout the sector, and we find Morgan Stanley (MS) to be a “very inexpensive stock,” Jim Cramer said Friday. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long EL, SBUX, WYNN, WFC, MS. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
This nascent bull market started with the peak in interest rates and the dollar back in the fall and then broadened to include bank and semiconductor stocks in 2023. Is it fragile? Is it alchemy? Is it real? We’ll know after we see the quarterly earnings this week from the likes of Club holdings Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META) Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN), as well as what the Federal Reserve decides at its two-day meeting ending Wednesday and what the monthly nonfarm payroll numbers show Friday. I’m not as concerned as I would normally be though because the critics right now feel like poor picadors to me who would never catch a bull, let alone a matador who would put an end to things. Here’s why: Much if not most of the investing public and the money managers entrusted with their assets stopped believing in this market a long time ago when the Fed let things get out of control for a year because it feared a resurgent Covid. Public health was none of its business but it became its business and it did the best it could do. The revulsion that managers and investors feel started with the free money that then-President Donald Trump gave out, which somehow, got invested in a lot junk. That started a brutal pace of illegitimacy. It was followed up with the wrath of tech and the trillionaire sell-off of FANG and Friends, one that ultimately led to the end of FANG. That’s right we created FANG a decade ago this week on “Mad Money,” and it was a really good call — until it wasn’t. Facebook, now Meta, peaked ages ago and seems almost unimportant. Amazon got so bloated during the pandemic that it must be rightsized or its earnings won’t entitle it to be a growth stock. Netflix (NFLX) was the best of the lot, but your money turned into a pillar of salt if you looked at it at any time since November 2021, the month of the tech-heavy Nasdaq ‘s record high. You could say that about all of the FANG and friends names, including Google, now Alphabet. Apple held up a little longer and didn’t peak until early January 2022 along with the broader market. Oh, and why not include Tesla (TLSA) in the bunch; it deserved its trillionaire-cursed fate. Microsoft (MSFT) and Tesla reported and they appear to be non-events, which is rather incredible when you consider that Microsoft’s forecast came down quite a bit because of the Azure cloud nonetheless, the putative gem of its web services business, and Tesla actually lowered the price of its vehicles, something never thought possible. When Amy Hood, CFO of Club holding Microsoft, dropped the hammer during the post-earnings conference call it looked over. When Elon Musk succumbed to competition, it looked dead. Yet, take a look: Both had excellent weeks. It didn’t matter. It could be the same for Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Meta this week. That’s important. However, far more important is the lassitude with which we accepted these numbers. There was, indeed, an instant tsunami of selling after Hood dropped Microsoft’s bomb. Tesla’s stock had been going down for months. Other than the media did anyone care? The world is so worn out of fear for these, and the ennui for FANG and friends has transcended fear and gloom. We just don’t care anymore. The Fed? It could surprise us with a 50-basis-points interest rate hike this week. That would be poorly received initially but even that could be swallowed IF accompanied by a simple “done for now” statement. It’s worth noting that the market has over 98% odds on a 25-basis-point increase, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool . There’s even a slim contingent that sees a chance of no action. The nonfarm payroll report? We need to see decent wage-price stabilization — and given the layoffs we have seen — if we don’t get one, we will simply say it’s a matter of time. I know that these words sound like a derisking of the market. But that would be so wrong it’s painful. A decade after FANG what matters is everything else: the ascendancy of American businesses as a whole and all of those broadening bull markets. For example, Boeing (BA) rallied despite the FAA outage, and web stocks rallied despite Azure’s softness. Housing stocks held in because the demand for housing is demographically based and mortgage rates have stabilized, thanks to the inverted yield curve in the bond market, where short-duration rates are higher than longer-dated ones. The prices of new homes have been lowered, but that’s key to the hopefully receding inflation outlook. The key to the strength of this past week’s market was, of all things, Dow stock American Express (AXP). Much to the puzzlement of people who run big swaths of money, Amex’s strength came from millennial users. They are spending on travel and leisure and, most importantly, dinners out. But who can blame them. They are still remembering when they could do nothing during Covid. Plus, they love the points and the service. The Amexes, not the sideshow fintechs created by insane venture capitalists, are the winners. The stability of a market that’s based, in part, on the assumption of a JPMorgan (JPM) or an American Express or even a Boeing rallying on earnings, seems tidal to me. They stand for the broadening of it all, and the fact that it came after a huge overbought condition. That matters. When you study the S & P Oscillator, as I have, you get these confirmative moves when you experience further elevation as the Oscillator returns to the mean. That’s what’s happening as we consider the market to be far bigger than any group of a half-dozen stocks. No one company is important: The asset class prevails. It didn’t even matter that the incompetence of the men who run the machine surfaced again. The market is too strong for their stupidity — and the lack of actual names who were, well, stupid is a welcome sign. In short, we are experiencing the market’s liberation from FANG and friends. Even a miss by Apple can be explained away by the results of the pernicious, Orwellian-style release of people into a country, China, that had told you that Covid was a death sentence and the U.S. vaccines were worthless. You conquer that cynical belief system of the Communist Party with purchases of sneakers from Nike (NKE) and perfumes from Club holding Estee Lauder (EL), a la the lunar new year. You then have a pretty forgiving stance for Apple’s numbers. Undoubtedly, we have to get some bankruptcies soon, preferably by ne’er-do-well retailers and venture capital-backed fintechs and enterprise software firms and those who put money up for them. We need to rein in spending more so that the Fed can begin its period of peace having conquered those who kept paying up for the same thing. We are almost to the point, though not yet, where you can afford to job-hop. Thanks to Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) for announcing you need 15,000 people just when we thought the Fed was finishing its work. I guess that’s what burrito season brings us. Can we at least wait for the Super Bowl to be played? Yes, I am painting — without the help of ChatGPT, or its Nvidia (NVDA)-based backbone — a return to the era of no single company having real impact on the entire market, and no one move by the Fed doing so, either. The stalemate in Washington over the debt ceiling has led to the seemingly annual talk about a disastrous default that has always, to this point, been averted. The Fed may go with a completely against consensus 50 and say we aren’t done, stay tuned. We might even have misses among all the majors, but I am portraying a bull that just doesn’t care. It’s a bull that’s based on, not a lack of alternatives, which had been the case for three years, but a plethora of index fund money that follows the surges of whatever moves the needle collectively. You can boil all of this down to the suddenly hackneyed word, resiliency, as in the market is resilient in the face of its broad nature. We wait for the shortfall pronouncements from Apple, Amazon and Alphabet and move on NOT FROM THE STOCK MARKET but to OTHER STOCKS more representative of a resurgent America buoyed by its natural resources, its post-Covid strength, and its central bank that preserves purchasing power . We have the Russians, the Chinese and the Europeans to thank for that sanguine stance. The anticipation of what’s left of the FANG reporting season is simply prurient at this point and not dispositive. The drama is media created but ignored by 401(K) contributions and earmarked pension benefits that are actually being fulfilled. Sound too Panglossian? How about a hard-won battle with the narrowness of the bear that we have suffered from, not even seeming to acknowledge its beginning when the Fed went for preservation not profligacy back in the fall of 2021. The lack of credit to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and company is astounding to me. But once a doofus always a doofus, from his lack of massive Treasury sales to his crazy cadence of rigor in 2022. Yes, I am shredding the cynicism and heralding the new bull market, one that’s not ignorant of what ails things, but is benignly rotational. The obsession with FANG a decade after its birth is over and that means more money for the rest of the 500 companies in the S & P 500 benchmark index. That’s something the media fails to acknowledge and that will be on display writ large next week. My take? Ignore the sirens of a Circe in Bear uniform. That now unheralded cohort and its despoiled fellow travelers didn’t even make the playoffs, let alone the two conference championships. This is a week we will get through and any decline will be regarded as a clarion call to get in — repulsed only by cynical market prognosticators who insist on being the sound and the fury signifying nothing as the bulls trample on and leave their underinvested legions to starve the once over-served steers. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long AAPL, META, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, EL, NVDA. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Jim Cramer at NYSE with bull. June 30, 2022.
Virginia Sherwood | CNBC
This nascent bull market started with the peak in interest rates and the dollar back in the fall and then broadened to include bank and semiconductor stocks in 2023. Is it fragile? Is it alchemy? Is it real? We’ll know after we see the quarterly earnings this week from the likes of Club holdings Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META) Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN), as well as what the Federal Reserve decides at its two-day meeting ending Wednesday and what the monthly nonfarm payroll numbers show Friday.
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a “Morning Meeting” livestream at 10:20 a.m. ET. Here’s a recap of Wednesday’s key moments. Holding off on buying Be wary of Salesforce downgrade Watch for potential Alphabet pop 1. Holding off on buying Stocks rose Wednesday to continue a positive start to the year, spurred by economic data suggesting the Federal Reserve is making headway in its fight against inflation. A higher close on the Nasdaq Composite , which suffered the most in 2022, would be four straight days of gains. The market is in overbought territory, according to our trusted S & P 500 Short Range Oscillator . This means a pause on buying for us. We took advantag e of the market’s recent gains earlier this week with Estee Lauder (EL) — and then again with Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA). We booked profits on all three. 2. Be wary of Salesforce downgrade Bernstein on Wednesday downgraded Salesforce (CRM) to underperform from market perform (sell from hold), citing slower growth and concern about the company’s margins. Analysts argued that deceleration in Salesforce’s growth has been masked by its acquisitions and that the company’s cost-cutting measures – which include layoffs – will further impact efficiency and growth. But we disagree with their thesis since soon-to-be sole CEO Marc Benioff reportedly told employees about half of Salesforce account executives brought in more than 95% of deals, with the lack of productivity stemming largely from newer hires. 3. Watch for potential Alphabet pop While tech has gained this week on the back of upbeat economic data, there is one stock in particular we expect to rise even further. Jim Cramer said that his sources tell him Alphabet (GOOGL) is gearing up to implement a hiring freeze, and then cut its headcount. Jim says if Alphabet does make those moves, the stock could pop. The company said last year that it only plans to slow hiring in 2023. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long EL, MSFT, NVDA, CRM, GOOGL. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
China’s latest move to roll back its zero-Covid policy by scrapping quarantine restrictions for international travelers is the last leg of recovery we’ve been waiting for to help bolster Club holdings that have been weighed down by three years of stringent pandemic rules. Club names with significant China exposure were trading higher on the news Tuesday. Casino giant Wynn Resorts (WYNN) climbed more than 5%, cosmetics firm Estee Lauder (EL) rose more than 3% and industrial giant Honeywell (HON) ticked up 0.54% in midday trading. Wynn’s 2 properties in the special administrative region of Macao, China, had generated roughly 70% of the company’s total revenue pre-Covid-19. Estee Lauder relies on China for more than a third of total sales. And Honeywell, whose diverse range of industrial products include airplane cockpits and engines, is a significant supplier to what had been one of the fastest-growing passenger air markets in the world. Both Wynn and Estee Lauder are down more than 30% year-to-date, while Honeywell has risen more than 3% this year. Chinese authorities have dramatically scaled back draconian Covid restrictions over the past month that all but shut down the world’s second-largest economy since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020. On Monday, Beijing said international travelers will no longer need to quarantine upon arrival in the mainland from Jan. 8. That comes days after Macao lifted quarantine restrictions for visitors. The Club take China’s latest move to reopen its economy should be a catalyst for multiple Club holdings. While there are concerns that 2023 will be a down year for corporate earnings at large, companies with significant operations in China will likely have a different story to tell. For Estee Lauder, a leader in luxury skin care, makeup and fragrances, China represents a key driver of growth. The lifting of quarantine restrictions should lead to more duty-free airport sales for the cosmetics giant, especially in the touristy Hainan region, known as the Hawaii of China. Estee Lauder, like Club holding Starbucks (SBUX), is also poised to benefit from China abandoning strict lockdowns to combat Covid outbreaks, allowing more consumers to regularly shop in person. Relaxed quarantine restrictions should also boost the aerospace industry, which still hasn’t fully recovered from the pandemic. An uptick in international flights would be a tailwind to Honeywell, whose aerospace segment is one of its higher revenue- and margin performers. Wynn, meanwhile, is a large beneficiary of China’s reopening news given its outsized exposure to the country through its Macao casinos. This should allow Wynn to improve its earnings and execute on growth in the region. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long EL, WYNN, HON, SBUX. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
People use their smartphones to take photographs outside The Wynn Macau casino resort, operated by Wynn Resorts Ltd., in Macao, China, on Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2018.
Billy H.C. Kwok | Bloomberg | Getty Images
China’s latest move to roll back its zero-Covid policy by scrapping quarantine restrictions for international travelers is the last leg of recovery we’ve been waiting for to help bolster Club holdings that have been weighed down by three years of stringent pandemic rules.
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a “Morning Meeting” livestream at 10:20 a.m. ET. Here’s a recap of Tuesday’s key moments. We like the banks here We’re making 1 sale and 2 buys Don’t sell CRM into strength 1. We like the banks here We still like the banks, one of the new market leaders , on a day where the market is rallying for a second consecutive day. Of course, Club names Morgan Stanley (MS) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are our favorites, with the latter being Jim Cramer’s top pick in the portfolio. The banks are positioned to do well in the current high interest rate environment, which seems likely to continue with the Federal Reserve adamant on tamping down inflation at all costs . 2. We’re making 1 sale and 2 buys We also saw pockets of opportunities in other stocks on Tuesday, and took the chance to make some trades . We added to our positions in Danaher (DHR) and Estee Lauder (EL) and trimmed our position in Marvell Technology (MRVL). Our sale of MRVL is in line with our belief that we need to reduce our exposure to semiconductors. We bought more shares of EL because we know that China will eventually reopen its economy, which should jumpstart growth. We decided to buy DHR on the dip since it’s rarely down, and we believe that it is the premier company in the medtech industry. 3. Don’t sell CRM into strength Activist investor Starboard has taken a stake in Salesforce (CRM), with founder Jeff Smith stating that the enterprise software maker has a “subpar mix of growth and profitability,” and he sees a significant opportunity in the company. The company’s stock gained 4.3% early Tuesday. We believe that this is ultimately good news and investors should not sell shares of CRM into strength. While the company faces tremendous challenges, including the strong U.S. dollar and a stock that’s down more than 40% this year, we believe it will report a good next quarter. Moreover, we care about where a stock is headed, not where it’s coming from, and we believe Starboard’s stake in the company will continue to take shares of CRM higher. Regardless of the problems CRM faces, it remains an incredibly profitable company and we are bullish on the stock. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long CRM, DHR, EL, MRVL, MS, WFC. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.