ReportWire

Tag: ES00

  • Many investors are betting on an inflation peak. Here’s why a former hedge-fund manager says they’re wrong.

    Many investors are betting on an inflation peak. Here’s why a former hedge-fund manager says they’re wrong.

    [ad_1]

    Investors are waking up to big trouble in big China. Stock futures and oil prices are falling after angry anti-COVID zero protests swept the country.

    “This is a sudden powerful new distraction for markets when this week was supposed to be about incoming U.S. data,” sum up strategists at Saxo Bank. They say watch companies exposed to China, “given forward earnings are likely to be downgraded following further China lockdowns and protests.” 

    Before China grabbed the spotlight, holiday weekend sales, jobs and inflation data that due this week, as well as remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell were the big focus.

    Other questions are now swirling. Will China-related falls in oil prices lend to the peak inflation theory? And what about China’s post-COVID economic rebirth?

    Onto our call of the day, which says it’s time to short long bonds because of sticky food inflation — thanks to China. It comes from Russell Clark, a former hedge-fund manager who has spent the last 20 years focusing on that market, macro and short selling. 

    He notes investors have been scooping up the the iShares 20 years+ Treasury Bond ETF
    TLT,
    -0.34%    ,
    a liquid exchange-traded fund that buys long-dated bonds, even as with U.S. inflation hovering at 1970 highs.

    “The reason that people are getting bullish bonds I believe is that the yield curve has inverted. And every time that has happened, you have a recession and you want to get out of equities and into bonds,” says Clark. A yield curve inversion occurs when long-term interest rates drop below short term rates. The inversion of 2 and 10-year Treasury yields is at its steepest since the 1980s.

    Clues may lie in Japan’s poorly performing bond market. “Not only has it been prescient in leading the U.S. bond yields lower from 1999 onward, in 2020 the JGB market was also prescient in signaling the future U.S. treasury sell off,” he says.


    Russell Clark

    And what Japan is likely seeing that U.S. investors aren’t right now is China-driven food inflation. That’s something the Fed will find it tough to ignore, he said.

    Since the since the 1980s, food commodity prices have followed raw commodity prices higher, If the Fed wants to work that down, it will raise interest rates. For example, falling natural-gas prices
    NG00,
    -3.37%
    would help ease fertilizer costs for farmers.


    Russell Clark

    Clark points out that China is the world’s biggest food importer, with much higher prices than the U.S.

    “Pork, which is the most consumed meat in China, is now 3 times more expensive than the U.S. market, and has recently doubled in price. As Japan is also a large importer of pork, perhaps this was the reason the JGB market sold off before the U.S.,” he said.

    Beef is also a major import for China, and yes, prices are much higher than that of the U.S.

    “In essence, I am saying that China is exporting food inflation to the rest of the world, and I don’t see that ending at the moment. JGBs seem to agree – and when I look at the index value of US Food CPI on a log basis, I keep thinking that is says interest rates are going higher not lower,” said Clark.

    He sees food inflation looking secular, rather than cyclical, due to the demands of an increasingly urbanized China. “Secular food inflation implies POLITICAL pressure to have higher interest rates. US treasuries look a short to me, just as everyone has gotten long,” he said.

    The markets

    Stock futures
    ES00,
    -0.73%

    YM00,
    -0.54%

    NQ00,
    -0.72%
    are falling, and Treasury yields
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.684%

    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.467%
    and oil
    CL.1,
    -3.12%
    also are falling. The Japanese yen
    USDJPY,
    -0.61%
    is seeing some safe-haven bids. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
    HSI,
    -1.57%
    closed down 1.5%.

    For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Business Daily.

    The buzz

    An apartment-building fire in a locked-down city that killed 10 appeared to spark protests across China, calling for the President Xi Jinping to step down and zero-COVID policies to stop. A BBC reporter was arrested and beaten. Meanwhile, lockdowns mean China farmers are destroying crops they can’t sell.

    And similar unrest at China’s Zhengzhou Foxconn
    2317,
    -0.50%
    factory is expected to cause a shortfall of 6 million Apple
    AAPL,
    -1.96%
    iPhone Pros this year.

    Pinduoduo shares
    PDD,
    -1.44%
    are soaring after the China-based mobile marketplace reported profit and revenue beats.

    MGM Resorts 
    MGM,
    -0.42%    ,
    Las Vegas Sands 
    LVS,
    +0.26%
    and Wynn Resorts 
    WYNN,
    -0.57%
    higher in premarket after Macao tentatively renewed their casino licenses.

    Retailers are in focus after Black Friday online sales topped a record $9 billion. That’s as some wonder if Cyber Monday is still a thing.

    St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will sit down for an interview with MarketWatch on Monday, at 12 noon Eastern. New York Fed President John Williams address the Economic Club of New York at the same time. Fed’s Powell will speak on Wednesday, along with several other Fed officials this week.

    A busy data week starts Tuesday with home-price indexes and consumer confidence data. GDP, the PCE price index for October — a favored gauge of the Federal Reserve and November employment data are also on tap this week.

    Best of the web

    ‘I believe the economy is the biggest bubble in world history,’ warns ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’s Robert Kiyosaki.

    Iran was calling for the U.S. to be expelled from the Qatar World Cup.

    Lab study shows next COVID strain will be more deadly.

    The tickers

    These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern:

    Ticker

    		 Security name
    TSLA,
    -0.19%         		Tesla
    GME,
    -1.99%         		GameStop
    AMC,
    -1.70%         		AMC Entertainment
    AAPL,
    -1.96%         		Apple
    COSM,
    +34.06%         		Cosmos Holdings
    AMZN,
    -0.76%         		Amazon.com
    BBBY,
    -2.70%         		Bed Bath & Beyond
    MULN,
    -2.39%         		Mullen Automotive
    APE,
    +0.83%         		AMC Entertainment Holdings preferred shares
    DWAC,
    +6.44%         		Digital World Acquisition Corp.
    Random reads

    Chinese woman on a mission to visit everyone else’s lonely elderly relatives.

    ‘Gaslighting’ is Merriam Webster’s word of the year. No, really.

    Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

    Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch reporter Charles Passy and economist Stephanie Kelton

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • U.S. stock futures fall as Chinese protests rattle markets, oil hits 2022 low

    U.S. stock futures fall as Chinese protests rattle markets, oil hits 2022 low

    [ad_1]

    U.S. stock-index futures sank Sunday night, as Asian markets fell following widespread public demonstrations in China and as oil prices hit a 2022 low.

    Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
    YM00,
    -0.47%
    fell more than 150 points, or 0.5%, as of 10 p.m. Eastern, while S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    -0.64%
    and Nasdaq-100 futures
    NQ00,
    -0.80%
    dropped even more sharply.

    Wall Street finished mixed on Friday with the Dow notching its highest close since April 21. The S&P 500 
    SPX,
    -0.03%
     finished down 1.1 points, or less than 0.1%, at 4,026.12; the Dow Jones Industrial Average 
    DJIA,
    +0.45%
     closed 152.97 points, or 0.5%, higher at 34,347.03; and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +1.42%
     shed 58.96 points, or 0.5%, to 11,226.36.

    Stocks in Asia declined Monday, led by a 2% fall by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index
    HSI,
    -2.05%    .
    The Shanghai Composite
    SHCOMP,
    -1.03%
    slid as well, as thousands of protesters in major Chinese cities, including Shanghai, called for President Xi Jinping to resign. The unprecedented protests were spurred by frustration with China’s strict lockdowns as part of its “zero-COVID” policy.

    “Sentiment has turned sour as unrest across China grows,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said in a note Sunday night. “The risk of the situation escalating from here and short-term volatility remains high.”

    Oil prices fell sharply Sunday as well, as investors worried about slipping demand in China. West Texas Intermediate crude futures
    CL.1,
    -2.71%
    were last down more than 2%, at $74.27 a barrel, its lowest price year to date. Prices for Brent crude
    BRNF23,
    -2.70%    ,
    the international standard, sank as well.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Republicans clinch slim majority in House, likely signaling gridlock ahead

    Republicans clinch slim majority in House, likely signaling gridlock ahead

    [ad_1]

    Republicans will take over the U.S. House of Representatives two years into President Joe Biden’s term, though their narrow majority looks set to cause headaches for GOP leaders.

    Republican hopes for a strong red wave have been dashed, but the Associated Press said Wednesday that the party won enough House seats — 218 — to control that chamber of Congress, as results from the midterm elections continue to be tabulated.

    The battle for the U.S. Senate went to the Democrats late Saturday. Democrats will retain their hold on the Senate after winning a key race in Nevada, giving Biden’s party control of at least one chamber of Congress for the next two years.

    “Republicans have officially flipped the People’s House!” Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., the front-runner to become House Speaker, tweeted late Wednesday. “Americans are ready for a new direction, and House Republicans are ready to deliver.”

    While Republicans will control just one chamber of Congress, they now are expected to deliver a check on Biden’s policy priorities, such as by potentially using a debt-ceiling showdown to force spending cuts. 

    In a statement late Wednesday, President Joe Biden called for bipartisanship: “The American people want us to get things done for them. They want us to focus on the issues that matter to them and on making their lives better. And I will work with anyone — Republican or Democrat — willing to work with me to deliver results.”

    Related: Democrats weigh end run around Republicans to raise debt limit

    And see: Republican lawmakers likely to target ‘woke capitalism’ after the midterm elections, analysts say

    The Republican House majority has yet to be finalized but could be the narrowest of the 21st century, even less than in 2001, when the GOP had a nine-seat majority with two independents.

    Washington is likely to face new periods of gridlock, with Democrats also keeping their hold on the White House since Biden still has two years to serve before the 2024 presidential election. That’s after Democrats in the past two years used party-line votes to push through measures such as March 2021’s stimulus law and this past summer’s package targeting healthcare, climate change and taxes.

    The House switching to red from blue fits the historical pattern in which a first-term president’s party tends to lose congressional ground in the midterms. The GOP highlighted raging inflation in its effort to win over American voters.

    The House seats to flip to the GOP included one held by Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria of Virginia, who lost to Republican challenger Jen Kiggans, as well as two seats in Florida. But Democrats also flipped House seats and won re-elections in bellwether races, with Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Indiana Rep. Frank Mrvan notching victories.

    Read more: Here are the congressional seats that have flipped in the midterm elections

    Democrats have had a grip on the House since the 2018 midterms. They’ve run the Senate for two years, controlling the 50-50 chamber only because Vice President Kamala Harris can cast tiebreaking votes.

    Among the competitive Senate races, Democrats kept their hold on seats in Arizona, Colorado and New Hampshire, while scoring a pick-up in Pennsylvania. Republicans maintained their control of seats in North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin.

    Georgia’s Senate contest is headed to a Dec. 6 runoff, but its outcome has become less significant.

    Related: Ohio’s J.D. Vance tells MarketWatch he wants to end tax loopholes for tech companies and ban congressional stock trading

    Betting markets since late on Election Day have been seeing Democrats staying in charge of the Senate and Republicans winning the House. Ahead of last Tuesday’s voting, betting markets had signaled confidence in GOP prospects for taking over both the Senate and House.

    Analysts had said voters last month appeared increasingly focused on Republican issues such as high prices for gasoline
    RB00,
    -0.35%
    and other essentials, at the expense of Democrats’ agenda items such as climate change and abortion rights.

    But exit polls suggested that Republicans performed worse than expected because many Democrats and independents voted partly to show their disapproval of former President Donald Trump — and those voters were energized by the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision that overturned Roe.

    See: Anti-Trump vote and Dobbs abortion ruling boost Democrats in 2022 election

    The former president announced his 2024 White House run late Tuesday. Earlier Tuesday, House Republicans chose Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California, the current minority leader, as their candidate for speaker. Thirty-one Republicans voted against McCarthy, signaling that he must shore up his support before the vote on the speakership takes place in January.  It’s an early sign of how Republicans’ narrow majority is creating turbulence for the House GOP leadership. 

    Now read: What a Republican-controlled House might mean for tech: Plenty of hand-wringing over Section 230 liability shield

    And see: DeSantis viewed as frontrunner for Republican 2024 presidential nomination after Trump’s candidates flop in midterm elections

    Plus: Senate Republicans pick Mitch McConnell as their leader, as Rick Scott’s challenge flops

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Dow futures jump 700 points, 10-year Treasury yield drops below 4% on softer-than-expected CPI

    Dow futures jump 700 points, 10-year Treasury yield drops below 4% on softer-than-expected CPI

    [ad_1]

    U.S. stock futures surged to the upside on Thursday after softer-than-expected consumer price data. Up just 83 points ahead of the data, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
    YM00,
    +2.70%
    were up 900 points, or 2.7%, to 33,434. S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    +3.65%
    surged 118 points, or 3.1%, to 3,873.25, with those futures up just 11 points ahead of the data. Nasdaq-100 futures
    NQ00,
    +4.70%
    surged 390.50 points, or 3.6%, to 11,215. Bond yields were tumbling, with that of the 10-year note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.907%
    plunging 21 basis points to 3.939% and that of the two-year
    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.365%
    off 23 basis points to 4,399%. The ICE Dollar Index
    DXY,
    -1.44%
    slid 0.8%, while gold
    GC00,
    +1.84%
    surged $21 to $1,735.90 an ounce. The CPI report showed headline October inflation cooling more than expected to 7.7%, which has encouraged investors hoping the Federal Reserve can begin easing up on interest rate hikes sooner than later.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Dow hits 2-month high as blue-chip gauge heads for longest winning streak since May

    Dow hits 2-month high as blue-chip gauge heads for longest winning streak since May

    [ad_1]

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 600 points on Friday to its highest level in two months as the blue-chip gauge remained on track for a sixth straight session in the green in what would be its longest winning streak since May 27, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    All three major indexes were trading higher as expectations that the Federal Reserve will shift toward smaller interest-rate hikes after its November meeting have offset weak earnings this week from some of the market’s biggest megacap technology names.

    How are stocks trading?
    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      +1.67%
      gained 59 points, or 1.6%, to 3,866.

    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      +1.98%
      rose 589 points, or 1.8%, to 32,623.

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      +1.80%
      advanced 181 points, or 1.7%, to 10,974.

    Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were on track to cement their second weekly gain in a row on Friday, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq has substantially lagged after Thursday’s performance, where it was the only one of the major indexes to finish in the red following abysmal earnings from Meta Platforms Inc.

    Barring an intraday turnaround, the Dow is on track to log its fourth straight weekly advance. It remains down just 10.2% so far this year.

    The blue-chip gauge has risen 5% so far this week, while the S&P 500 is up 3.1% and the Nasdaq has risen 1.1%.

    What’s driving markets?

    All eyes were on the Dow Friday as the blue-chip gauge was the only major index to reach new notable highs late this week as its advance during the month of October has somewhat ameliorated its losses for the year so far.

    The Dow has risen 13.5% since the start of the month, leaving it on track for its best October performance since it was created in the late 19th century.

    Perhaps the biggest reason for the Dow’s rise this month is tied to its composition. The average is generally light on technology stocks, while including more of the energy and industrial stocks that have outperformed this year.

    “The Dow just has more of the winners embedded in it and that has been the secret to its success,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B.Reily Wealth.

    Despite some volatility in the premarket session, all three major indexes turned higher after the open as investors remained fixated on expectations for the Fed to down shift to smaller interest rate hikes after next week’s policy meeting — an expectation that endured after the latest reports on inflation and wage growth released Friday.

    See:Market expectations start to shift in direction of slower pace of rate hikes by Fed

    Brad Conger, deputy chief investment officer at Hirtle, Callaghan & Co., said Friday’s data didn’t interfere with mounting expectations that the Fed might soon pause its campaign of aggressive rate hikes.

    “Basically, the market is starting to price in a pause, not a pivot, but maybe a pause. The end is in sight,” Conger said.

    The September core personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation pressures — came in roughly in line with economists expectations, while a more modest 1.2% gain in private wages and salaries in the third quarter was interpreted as a sign that wage growth may have finally peaked, according to Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

    “The Federal Reserve has not yet broken the persistent trend in core inflation and so will likely stay aggressive at next week’s meeting. However, some areas of the economy show significant weakness and could build the case that the Fed downshifts to smaller rate hikes in 2023,” Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist for LPL Financial in Charlotte, NC, said.

    The final reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October added 1.3 index points from 58.6 in September, and was up slightly from an initial reading of 59.8 earlier in the month.

    See: GDP looked great for the U.S. economy, but it really wasn’t

    Since the start of the week, investors have digested a batch of disappointing numbers from some of America’s largest tech companies, which helped to sully the overall quality of S&P 500 earnings this quarter.

    On Thursday night, Amazon.com
    AMZN,
    -9.29%
    joined Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +2.75%    ,
    Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    +2.76%
    and Meta
    META,
    +0.34%
    by publishing disappointing earnings for the quarter that ended Sept. 30.

    But despite the disappointing results reported this week, in aggregate, S&P 500 firms are beating earnings expectations by 3.8%, according to Refinitiv data. That’s compared to a long-term average of 4.1% since 1994. However, if energy firms are excluded, the picture darkens substantially.

    Opinion: The cloud boom has hit its stormiest moment yet, and it is costing investors billions

    Shares of Amazon were off 10% after the e-commerce giant, which dominates the consumer-discretionary sector, predicted slower holiday sales and profit while also reporting slower-than-expected growth in its key cloud-computing business.

    Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, said investors were unnerved by Amazon’s guidance cut.

    “The outlook for Q4 was what terrified investors with the retailer guidance operating income in the range $0-4 billion vs est. $4.7 billion and revenue of $140-148 billion vs est. $155.5 billion,” he said in a note.

    One notable exception to the downbeat earnings news this week was Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +7.21%    ,
    which proved a bright spot after the iPhone maker’s revenue and earnings topped forecasts, helped by record back-to-school sales of Macs. Shares were up nearly 0.9% in premarket trading.

    Companies in focus
    • Oil giants Chevron Corp. CVX and Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM were climbing on Friday after reporting strong results. Chevron is a Dow component.

    • Pinterest Inc. PINS also saw strong sales and profit in the third quarter, beating Wall Street expectations. Its shares were up more than 14%.

    • Intel Corp. INTC shares advanced more than 8% after reporting an earnings beat. The chip maker said it would cut costs by $3 billion next year, and lay off employees, as it trimmed its outlook again.

    See also: Live Markets coverage:

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Meta’s stock plunge to below $100 on track to wipe out more than $80 billion in market cap

    Meta’s stock plunge to below $100 on track to wipe out more than $80 billion in market cap

    [ad_1]

    Shares of Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    -21.30%
    plunged 23.6% in premarket trading Thursday, in the wake of disappointing third-quarter results, putting them on track to trade below the $100 mark after the opening bell for the first time since February 2016. The implied price decline ahead of the open would wipe out about $81.2 billion worth of market capitalization from the social media giant to about $263.0 billion, which would knock it down by eight notches on the list of most valuable S&P 500 companies, to 21st from 13th. Meta’s stock selloff is on track to be its second-biggest one-day decline, behind just the 26.4% fall on Feb. 3, 2022. The stock’s selloff comes while S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    +0.44%
    rose 0.5%.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • U.S. stock futures give up early gains after Wall Street’s best week since June

    U.S. stock futures give up early gains after Wall Street’s best week since June

    [ad_1]

    U.S. stock futures gave up strong early-session gains overnight after Wall Street notched its best week since June.

    After initially surging about 300 points, or 1% on Sunday evening, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
    YM00,
    -0.02%
    were last about flat at midnight Eastern, while S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    +0.05%
    and Nasdaq-100 futures
    NQ00,
    +0.16%
    similarly gave up sharp early gains.

    The U.S. Dollar Index
    DXY,
    +0.19%
    nudged higher, while the British pound
    GBPUSD,
    +0.12%
    surrendered much of an afternoon rally fueled by the possibility that Rishi Sunak will be Britain’s next prime minister, after Boris Johnson bowed out of the running. Crude prices
    CL.1,
    -0.55%
    ticked slightly higher Sunday.

    On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +2.47%
     gained 748.97 points, or 2.5%, to close at 31,082.56. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.37%
     climbed 86.97 points, or 2.4%, to finish at 3,752.75, and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -0.81%
     rose 244.87 points, or 2.3%, to end at 10,859.72.

    The three major indexes scored their biggest weekly percentage gains since June last week. For the week, the Dow rose 4.9%, the S&P 500 gained 4.7% and the Nasdaq advanced 5.2%.  Yields on 10-year Treasury notes
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.156%
    ended Friday at 4.228%.

    Investors were heartened by reports that the Fed may back off slightly from its aggressive rate-hiking policy later this year.

    The upcoming week is the busiest of the third-quarter earnings season, with 165 S&P 500 companies, including 12 Dow components reporting. That includes earnings from Big Tech companies Alphabet
    GOOGL,
    +1.16%    ,
    Amazon
    AMZN,
    +3.53%    ,
    Apple
    AAPL,
    +2.71%    ,
    Meta
    META,
    -1.16%
    and Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +2.53%    .

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch

    ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch

    [ad_1]

    This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • This industry could be worth $180 billion by 2040. Citigroup offers four stock names to play it, and a few more to think about.

    This industry could be worth $180 billion by 2040. Citigroup offers four stock names to play it, and a few more to think about.

    [ad_1]

    Investors are bracing for some choppiness on Wall Street, with oil prices falling as growth worries rattle around the globe. That’s as the clock ticks down to CPI and the start of a earnings season later this week, and in the backdrop a war is intensifying in Europe.

    Tough times don’t last, but tough investors do right? Maybe, hopefully. In any case, focusing on the distant future might offer some comfort right now.

    And that’s where we’re headed with our call of the day from Citigroup, whose strategists have stock ideas to play what they expect will be one of the ten fastest-growing markets through 2040.

    They are talking about the global fuel cell industry, a direct play on the green energy debate, and “reaching the part that batteries cannot.”

    “Fuel cells enable both de-carbonization and energy resilience, and we see them as crucial in harder-to-abate sectors like commercial vehicles and marine,” a Citi team led by research analyst Martin Wilkie told clients in a note on Tuesday.

    Their base case sees this market reaching 50 gigawatts (GW) and $40 billion by 2030, offering a compound average growth rate of more than 35% in dollar terms, with further acceleration to 500GW/$180 billion by 2040.

    They admit they’re on the bullish side with these projections, and note fuel cell stocks are on average down around 70% since their January 2021 peaks . 

    “The fuel cell equity story has had false starts before, but we see the impetus from emissions policy as well as announced hydrogen plans as creating attractive opportunities,” said the Citi analysts, highlighting policies such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which aims at beefing up renewable energy and a recent EU move to offer more green-energy research and development subsidies.

    While passenger cars were a big source of demand for the growing fuel cell market in 2021, they don’t think it can be a big competitor to battery electric. However, stationary power, such as distributed and backup power generation and heavy-duty transport, think commercial vehicles, off-road and later marine are set to become key fuel-cell markets.

    U.K.-based Ceres Power
    CWR,
    -1.69%    ,
    Plug Power
    PLUG,
    -0.25%    ,
    Belgium’s Umicore
    UMI,
    -1.69%    ,
    and Japan’s Toyota
    7203,
    -0.96%

    TM,
    -0.73%
    are Citi’s buy-rated stocks with high exposure to the fuel-cell theme.

    Other names they mention, include Daimler Truck
    DTG,
    +1.32%
    and Volvo
    VOLV.B,
    +0.21%

    VOLV.A,
    +0.12%    ,
    which are working with Germany’s Traton
    8TRA,
    -2.09%
    on a joint venture called Cellcentric that aims to develop that technology for trucks, with a production goal of 2025. Others are outsourcing fuel-cell tech, such as Italy’s Iveco Group
    IVG,
    +0.10%    ,
    which has teamed up with South Korea’s Hyundai
    005380,
    -4.27%    ,
    and U.S.-based Paccar
    PCAR,
    +0.23%
    with Toyota
    TM,
    -0.73%    .

    The markets

    Stock futures
    ES00,
    -0.38%

    YM00,
    -0.22%

    NQ00,
    -0.46%
    have pared some losses, while bond yields
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.927%

    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.307%
    are mixed, and the dollar
    DXY,
    -0.14%
    has turned lower. Oil prices
    CL.1,
    -1.42%
    are also pressure.

    The buzz

    Shares of the world’s biggest chip maker, TSMC
    2330,
    -8.33%    ,
    fell 8% in Taiwan
    Y9999,
    -4.35%    ,
    where stocks dropped more than 4% following new limits by the U.S. imposed on exports of semiconductors and chip-making equipment to China.

    The Bank of England made the second move this week to calm jittery markets, saying Tuesday it will expand its bond purchases to index-linked U.K. bond. But the program still ends Friday, something the pensions fund industry wants to see extended. Those yields
    TMBMKGB-10Y,
    4.448%
    TMBMKGB-30Y,
    4.718%    ,
    meanwhile, continue to creep higher.

    The National Federation of Independent Business small-business index showed confidence rising in September, but inflation a nagging problem. At noon Eastern we’ll hear from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester.

    Subscription-based private aviation company Flexjet plans to go public through a merger with SPAC Horizon Acquisition
    HZON,

    valuing it at $3.1 billion.

    The U.S.’s third-biggest railroad union will be back at the negotiating table with employers on Tuesday, after rejecting a deal and raising the possibility of crippling strikes.

    The Kremlin’s war hawks were thrilled at the devastating strikes across Ukraine on Monday. Now they want more. G-7 leaders are holding an emergency meeting to discuss the ramping up of the war.

    Amazon’s
    AMZN,
    -0.78%
    second Prime-Day like event kicks off Tuesday.

    Best of the web

    U.K. spy chief says Russians are starting to realize the cost of Putin’s war in Ukraine

    India’s biodegradable bags are in demand, and reviving its industry

    We are not at peace. The world needs to get ready for more sabotage

    One of the greatest transfers of intergenerational wealth is coming, says head of TIAA

    The chart

    This graphic by Visual Capitalist’s Truman Du, shows Disney’s
    DIS,
    -2.06%
    streaming empire — Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+ — is “giving Netflix
    NFLX,
    +2.33%
    a run for its money.”


    Visual Capitalist, Disney, Netflix quarterly reports

    The tickers

    These were the top searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern Time:

    Ticker

    		 Security name
    TSLA,
    -0.05%         		Tesla
    GME,
    -1.38%         		GameStop
    AMC,
    -2.76%         		AMC Entertainment Holdings
    AAPL,
    +0.24%         		Apple
    NIO,
    -3.49%         		NIO
    BBBY,
    -2.21%         		Bed Bath & Beyond
    APE,
    -6.53%         		AMC Entertainment Holdings preferred shares
    NVDA,
    -3.36%         		Nvidia
    TWTR,
    +2.40%         		Twitter
    AMD,
    -1.08%         		Advanced Micro Devices
    Random reads

    Everyone hail to this 2,560-pound pumpkin.

    “Where’s Tony gone?” Supply-chain woes hit (shudder) Frosted Flakes.

    Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

    Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch reporter Charles Passy and economist Stephanie Kelton.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Dow books 630-point drop after strong jobs data rattles investors, but stocks cement weekly gains

    Dow books 630-point drop after strong jobs data rattles investors, but stocks cement weekly gains

    [ad_1]

    U.S. stocks finished sharply lower Friday, but still booked their best weekly gains in a month, after September jobs data showed an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate that’s anticipated to reinforce the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep tightening monetary policy.

    Investors also weighed a profit warning at a leading microchip maker ahead of next week’s increase in quarterly earnings results.

    What happened
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      -2.11%
      fell 630.15 points, or 2.1%, ending at 29,296.79, but off the session low of 29,142.66.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      -2.80%
      dropped 104.86 points, or 2.8%, closing at 3,639.66.

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      -3.80%
      shed 420.91 points, or 3.8%, to finish at 10,652.40.

    Stocks posted back-to-back losses, trimming weekly gains, but recorded their best weekly gains since Sept. 9, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Read: Will the stock market be open on Columbus Day?

    What drove markets

    Stocks recorded sharp losses Friday after the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate declined to 3.5% from an August reading of 3.7%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%.

    Still, a powerful rally earlier in the week boosted all three major stock indexes to weekly gains, a departure from three straight weekly losses, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    “It’s manic. We are all on edge,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist at Capitol Securities Management, of the sharp market swings.

    “Any piece of good news is a cause for an explosive rally,” Engelke said by phone. On the flip side, he pegged technology-based trading “in an illiquid and emotional market” as exacerbating Friday’s selloff.

    “It’s a reflection that people have re-entered the mind-set that the Fed is going to be raising rates at a rapid clip, probably for longer than what they might have suspected at the start of the week,” said Robert Pavlik, a senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management, by phone.

    Pavlik expects the Fed to keep tightening financial conditions to try to head off inflation. “But once we turn the corner, and the economy slows down, the Fed probably will be more aggressive in cutting rates on the way down.”

    In addition, the Fed has been “draining liquidity from the system at a remarkable pace,” wrote Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, in a Friday client note, while pointing to an astounding $1.3 trillion decline in the central bank’s balance sheet since the December 2021 peak.

    Pavlik at Dakota Wealth said he anticipates the Fed will start slowing interest rate hikes by mid-next year, which likely means continued pressure for the stock market, particularly with a backdrop of big oil-price
    CL00,
    +5.37%
    gains this week after global crude producers voted to cut monthly production and with the U.S. dollar’s
    DXY,
    +0.44%
    surge this year against a basket of rival currencies.

    U.S. crude oil prices climbed for a fifth day in a row on Friday to settle at $92.64 a barrel, while booking at 16.5% weekly gain.

    New York Fed President John Williams said Friday that benchmark interest rates likely need to hit 4.5% over time. The Fed’s policy rate now sits in a 3%-3.25% range, up from a zero-0.25% range a year ago.

    The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.889%
    climbed to 3.883% Friday, as the key metric used to gauge the affordability of credit for businesses, household and the economy posted 10 straight weeks of gains, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Read: Bond markets facing historic losses grow anxious of Fed that ‘isn’t blinking yet’

    Investors continued to hope for relief on the inflation front and will be monitoring next week’s release of the September consumer-price index, as well as corporate earnings season as it picks up.

    Companies in focus
    • Twitter Inc.
      TWTR,
      -0.43%
      shares fell 0.4% Friday after a judge delayed a looming trial between the company and Elon Musk to allow the Tesla Inc.
      TSLA,
      -6.32%
      CEO more time to close his $44 billion acquisition of the social media platform.

    • Besides the jobs report, investors weighed a profit warning from microchip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, which said the PC market weakened significantly during the quarter. AMD shares fell 13.9%, and rivals including Nvidia Corp. NVDA and Intel Corp. INTC also closed lower.

    • U.S. cannabis stocks were choppy Friday, with the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF
      MSOS,
      -2.80%
      ending lower, following steep gains earlier in the week after President Joe Biden said the U.S. would consider de-scheduling cannabis from its current position as a Schedule 1 narcotic under federal law.

    —Steven Goldstein contributed reporting to this article

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • U.S. stocks finish choppy session with losses, snap 2-day winning streak as investors assess positive economic data

    U.S. stocks finish choppy session with losses, snap 2-day winning streak as investors assess positive economic data

    [ad_1]

    U.S. stock indexes ended modestly lower on Wednesday, despite briefly turning positive in the final hour of trading, while data showed steady growth in private-sector jobs and in the service sector, indicating more scope for the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates.

    How stocks traded?
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      +0.03%
      lost 42.45 points, or 0.1%, to finish at 30,273.87

    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      +0.21%
      was off 7.65 points, or 0.2%, ending at 3,783.28

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      +18.82%
      shed 27.77 points, or 0.2%, to end at 11,148.64

    On Tuesday, the Dow jumped 825 points, or 2.8%, while the S&P 500 increased 3.1% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 3.3%.

    What drove markets?

    Wall Street stocks finished in the red after three main indexes bounced back from earlier losses in the final hour of trade, following a strong September private employment report in the morning.

    Data released Wednesday showed that private-sector payrolls rose by 208,000 in September, indicating steady growth and supporting the view that the Fed has enough scope to keep raising interest rates. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a rise of 200,000.

    The report came two days before the closely watched nonfarm payrolls data issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Investors are eying on it for important guidance on the Fed’s policy stance in the November meeting.

    Friday’s employment report is expected to show the economy added 275,000 jobs in September, compared with 315,000 new positions added in August, according to a survey polled by Dow Jones.

    See: Hiring and job creation seen falling to a 1 1/2-year low in U.S. September jobs report

    “That certainly could move the needle,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. “Again, it doesn’t mean that it actually is going to change the market, but it could be the catalyst for short term rally if we get a disappointing jobs report.”

    “But keep in mind, that’s just the anticipation of a Fed pivot based on data. But that does not ensure a Fed pivot. And so it could be one of those short-term rallies like the one we saw earlier this week,” Hooper said.

    In other data Wednesday, an ISM barometer of U.S. business conditions in the service sector dipped to 56.7% in September but still showed steady growth and rising employment in a sign the economy is still expanding.

    The U.S. trade deficit in August fell to $67.4 billion, the lowest level since mid 2021, paving the way for a resumption of growth in gross domestic product in the third quarter.

    See: Why investors shouldn’t expect a break from the stock-market whiplash, says this strategist

    The S&P 500 had just enjoyed its largest two day percentage gain since April 2020 on Monday and Tuesday, and the best start to a quarter since 1938, according to Dow Jones Market data.

    The bounce followed three quarters of declines, the worst such run since 2008, during which time the S&P 500 fell 24.8% to a near two-year trough as investors worried that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes to crush inflation would harm the economy.

    Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, believes the volatility in the stocks will continue because markets are getting a very “consistent message” from the Fed.

    “Given what has happened over the last five trading sessions alone, we would be basically telling our clients to tighten your seatbelt a little bit because it’s definitely going to continue to be a bumpy ride,” Mulberry told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Wednesday. “If we get a ‘Goldilocks’ (jobs) report, that would mean decent economic activity is going on. That’s good for earnings overall in the market, but it’s not growing to a point where interest rates would have to be ratcheted up another 125 basis points by the end of the year.”

    See: The stock market is surging as the U.S. dollar retreats. It’s all about bonds.

    One major reason behind the rise early this week was the view that the Fed would pivot away from its aggressive monetary tightening.

    Johanna Chua, chief Asia economist at Citi, said that though U.S economic growth remained in better shape than other countries and Fed officials continued to sound hawkish, the market risked being wrongfooted by any signs that interest rates could soon peak.

    “Even as the overall fundamental setup has not changed… trimming of bearish risk/bearish rates/bullish USD positions has driven a sharp reversal,” Chua said.

    Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said Wednesday that the Federal Reserve needs to keep raising its benchmark interest rate in order to cool inflation that hit a 40-year high earlier this year and has shown little signs of cooling. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak at 4 p.m. Eastern.

    Meanwhile, the OPEC+ group said Wednesday that it will reduce its collective crude production levels by 2 million barrels a day starting next month, the biggest cut since the start of the pandemic. Oil futures headed higher with West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery
    CL00,

     
    CLX22,

    rose $1.24, or 1.4%, to settle at $87.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

    The S&P 500’s energy sector
    SP500.10,
    -0.07%
    rose 2.1% following the news, up 12.6% over the last three trading days. According to Dow Jones Market Data, it was the best three-day percentage gain since November 2020 when it gained 16.1%. Shares of Schlumberger 
    SLB,
    +0.77%
    gained 6.3% at the close, while Exxon Mobil
    XOM,
    +1.32%
    shares advanced 4%.

    Companies in focus
    • Shares of Helen of Troy Ltd. 
      HELE,
      -2.75%
      finished 3.4% higher Wednesday, after the consumer products company, with brands including OXO, Hydro Flask and Braun, reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that beat expectations but cut its full-year outlook, as rising inflation has prompted consumers to change their spending patterns.

    • Shares of Monopar Therapeutics Inc.
      MNPR,
      +6.36%
       gained 1.8% after the company said it completed enrollment in a Phase 2b clinical trial evaluating its experimental therapy aimed at preventing severe oral mucositis in patients undergoing chemoradiotherapy for oropharyngeal cancer.

    • Shares of Eiger BioPharmaceuticals Inc.
      EIGR,
      +0.85%
       tumbled 5% after the company said it will not pursue emergency authorization of its experimental treatment for mild and moderate COVID-19 infections.

    • Shares of Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.
      LW,
      +2.45%
       ended 4.2% higher Wednesday, after the potato supplier reported fiscal first-quarter profit that beat expectations, higher prices helped offset a volume decline.

    —Jamie Chisholm contributed reporting

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Dow falls 500 points Friday as stocks book third straight quarterly loss, set new 2022 lows

    Dow falls 500 points Friday as stocks book third straight quarterly loss, set new 2022 lows

    [ad_1]

    U.S. stocks dropped sharply Friday, with major indexes posting their lowest finishes since 2020 and logging a third straight quarterly decline as investors grew more fearful that aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will drive the economy into a downturn in an attempt to quell inflation.

    What’s happening
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      -1.71%
      dropped 500.10 points, or 1.7%, to close at 28,725.51.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      -1.51%
      dropped 54.85 points, or 1.5%, to end at 3,585.61.

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      -0.43%
      shed 161.88 points, of 1.5%, finishing at 10,575.61.

    The drop left the Dow and S&P 500 at their lowest since November 2020, while the Nasdaq posted its lowest close since July 29, 2020. The Dow dropped 8.8% in September, while the S&P 500 tumbled 9.3% and the Nasdaq lost 10.5%.

    For the quarter, the Dow dropped 6.7%, the S&P 500 declined 5.3% and the Nasdaq gave up 4.1%.

    What’s driving the market

    In keeping with the historical pattern, U.S. stocks suffered during the month of September as an assertive Federal Reserve helped push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, which in turn undermined equity valuations.

    See: It’s the worst September for stocks since 2008. What that means for October.

    Investors on Friday digested a reading from the personal consumption expenditure inflation index for August, which showed that core consumer prices climbed by 0.6% last month, more than Wall Street’s forecast of 0.5%. The core inflation measure excludes volatile food and energy prices.

    See: Cheaper gas holds down inflation, PCE shows, but the cost of everything else is still going up fast

    “That means the Fed will remain hell-bent on killing inflation. And the best way to do that is to increase rates, kill the housing market, and get rental costs down. The PCE doesn’t have housing and rents as a big component as the CPI does, so the fact that it is rising is a warning sign,” said Louis Navellier, founder of Navellier & Associates, in emailed comments.

    Read: Will October be another stock-market ‘bear killer’? Why investors need to tread carefully around seasonal trends.

    The reading largely confirmed similar data from the consumer-price index, another closely watched inflation barometer, which sent stocks lower earlier this month. Since that report was released just over two weeks ago, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 10%.

    Helping to underscore this point, data out of the eurozone showed inflation accelerated at a record pace last month.

    See: Eurozone Inflation posts new record high of 10% in September

    In other news, investors also heard from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who reiterated that the central bank would keep interest rates elevated to combat inflation, even if it harms the economy.

    See: Fed won’t pull back from rate hikes prematurely, Brainard says

    Since it will take time for high interest rates to bring inflation down, Brainard said the Fed is “committed to avoiding pulling back prematurely.”

    Investors were also keeping an eye on megacap tech stocks. Apple Inc. AAPL fell 3% on Friday after leading markets lower a day earlier following a downgrade by Bank of America.

    Need to know: Here’s why investors should start betting on Apple and the stock market now

    A final reading on the University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index for September showed consumers’ view of the economy improved somewhat during the month due to falling gas prices, even as their outlook remained broadly pessimistic.

    Investors are now facing “what may be one of the most important earning seasons in a very long time, with a major rally in the cards if earnings don’t disappoint, and if the bears are right, lead to a further leg down if earnings disappoint and 4th quarter estimates are cut,” Navellier said.

    See: U.S. consumers remain pessimistic about economy even as inflation fears wane

    Stocks in focus

    — Steve Goldstein and Barbara Kollmeyer contributed to this article

    [ad_2]

    Source link