Court injunction allows construction to continue amid BOEM challenges.
Long Island leaders gathered in Melville Friday to call on the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) to lift its lease suspension on Sunrise Wind, a project already 45% complete, to secure its economic benefits.
In a letter to Acting BOEM Director Matthew Giancona, the group emphasized the project’s benefits, including stabilizing energy prices, supporting union jobs and boosting the downstream supply chain. The group stressed the need to advance the project without further delays.
Sunrise Wind, under construction 30 miles off Montauk, is slated for operation next year and is expected to generate enough electricity to power 600,000 homes. The project has encountered obstacles following a recent BOEM suspension order, which developer Ørsted is challenging in court. A preliminary injunction currently allows construction to continue while the lawsuit proceeds.
“The LIA urges the federal government to rescind their suspension order immediately, and allow this job-creating project that supports a stable grid capable of accommodating future economic growth to make it to the finish line,” Matt Cohen, Long Island Association president and CEO, said, in a news release.
“The economic benefits to Long Island and New York are undeniable – and the LIA supports an all-of-the-above energy strategy that incorporates all potential sources into our portfolio so our region can be prosperous,” he added.
“Sunrise Wind is well on its way to being completed and has already undergone an extensive government approval process, and should continue as planned,” Lawrence Waldman, LIA chairman, said, in the news release. “In addition to the significant job creating and other economic benefits, it helps Long Island and New York integrate another source of energy into our portfolio, which is critical for a reliable and affordable grid.”
Suffolk County Executive Ed Romaine said in the news release that Long Island leaders “respectfully request that the BOEM adhere to the court’s decision and allow this project to proceed. The Sunrise Project will provide much-needed alternative energy solutions … and has created hundreds of jobs for skilled laborers. We want to see this project move forward.”
Kyle Strober, executive director of Association for a Better Long Island, said in the news release that “Long Island’s unique geography positions it well to benefit from the tens of millions of dollars in economic activity and thousands of jobs this project represents. As Sunrise Wind moves forward, we must not only recognize its enormous economic and energy benefits but also sustain our support for its construction in a manner that underscores a unified alliance of public-private Long Island leadership.”
Terri Alessi-Miceli, president and CEO of HIA-LIA, stressed the importance of the project.
“This critical infrastructure project strengthens Long Island’s energy future while creating good-paying jobs and long-term economic benefits for our region,” she said in the news release. “Sunrise Wind represents a practical step toward diversifying our energy mix and investing in offshore wind in a way that supports reliability, sustainability, and continued growth for Long Island and New York State.”
Mike Florio, CEO of Long Island Builders Institute, said that projects “like Sunrise Wind are critical to Long Island’s future as we work to diversify our energy mix and invest in practical, reliable offshore wind infrastructure. Affordable and dependable energy is directly tied to housing production and the overall cost of living in our region. If we are serious about building more homes, supporting the workforce, and keeping Long Island competitive, we need energy solutions that are sustainable, scalable, and planned with growth in mind.”
Marc Herbst, executive director of the Long Island Contractors’ Association (LICA) agreed.
“This project represents a major opportunity to create good-paying union jobs, strengthen Long Island’s workforce, and deliver long-term economic benefits for our region,” he said in the news release. “Now is the time for Long Island’s business and labor leaders to keep the momentum going and continue advocating for the economic growth, local investment and job creation Sunrise Wind will bring to our communities.”
John Durso, president of the Long Island Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO, said in the news release that region “cannot afford further delays to critical energy infrastructure. Lifting the stop work order allows Sunrise Wind to move forward delivering union jobs, strengthening our energy grid, and advancing the kind of real progress Long Island needs. After repeated attempts to disrupt this project, the court’s ruling is a much-needed win for Long Islanders.”
Ryan Stanton, executive director of the Long Island Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO, said in the news release that the “court’s decision on Sunrise Wind is a win for Long Island and a win for the rule of law. This project delivers exactly what Long Island needs: power generation, energy resiliency, and thousands of good-paying union jobs. It has already proven its economic value, and this court decision reinforces [that critical] energy infrastructure must not be politicized.”
Matthew Aracich, president of The Building and Construction Trades Council of Nassau & Suffolk Counties, said in the news release that his organization offshore wind development represents “a critical investment in good-paying, union jobs and long-term economic stability for our region. Restarting the region’s projects has immediately put skilled tradespeople back to work, supporting thousands of positions in the construction, and manufacturing jobs that strengthen local supply chains. Labor believes we can grow our economy while protecting our environment, and offshore wind allows us to do both—creating union jobs here at home while advancing clean, reliable energy.”
Robert Fonti, chairman of the Suffolk County Alliance of Chambers, said in the news release that the project ”represents both an energy investment and an economic opportunity for Long Island. Our small businesses want to see projects that create jobs, support local contractors, and move our region forward responsibly.”
Scott Jennings, who has a 27-year history with PSEG, was tapped as president and chief operating officer of PSEG Long Island beginning on Monday, Jan. 5, 2026, according to a company statement. Jennings succeeds David Lyons, who has served as interim president and COO of PSEG Long Island since May 2022.
The five-year contract extension for PSEG Long Island to operate the electric grid for Long Island and the Rockaways just approved by the state comptroller was awarded by the LIPA Board of Trustees in September. PSEG Long Island has operated the electric grid on behalf of LIPA since 2014, and the contract extension runs through Dec. 31, 2030.
Jennings has served in various PSEG leadership roles, most recently as senior vice president of Finance, Planning and Strategy, where he was responsible for the company’s business plans and investments, according to the statement.
“We conducted an extensive national search to find a leader who had the ideal skills and vision, while demonstrating a strong commitment to the role and the future success of PSEG Long Island. Scott has decades of experience and a strong strategic and financial background that will be instrumental to maintaining energy affordability for customers on Long Island and in the Rockaways.” Ralph LaRossa, PSEG chair, president and CEO, said in the statement. “We are confident that Scott will seamlessly lead PSEG Long Island in this new chapter and work in partnership with LIPA to enhance our safe, affordable, reliable energy future.”
Jennings headed the development and negotiation of PSEG’s arrangement to operate the Long Island electric grid on behalf of LIPA leading up to the establishment of PSEG Long Island in 2014.
“I am thrilled to be joining PSEG Long Island as it enters this new chapter. I will work diligently with our partners at LIPA and IBEW 1049 to continue the improvements we have made for customers over the past 12 years,” Jennings said in the statement. “I look forward to making strategic investments across the organization to deliver a reliable, resilient electric grid while enhancing the customer experience and maintaining affordability.”
Pat Guidice, business manager of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 1049, thanked Lyons for his leadership and service and his work with the workforce during his tenure.
“We appreciate the opportunity to have worked with him and wish him well in his next steps,” Guidice said in the statement. “We also congratulate Scott Jennings on his appointment as president and COO and look forward to working with him in his new role.”
In addition to Jennings promotion, PSEG announced that John Latka has been named senior vice president of electric operations at the utility to support both PSE&G and PSEG Long Island.
Russia fired more than 600 drones and three dozen missiles at Ukraine in a large-scale attack that began during the night and stretched into daylight hours Tuesday, officials said. At least three people were killed, including a 4-year-old child, two days before Christmas.The barrage struck homes and the power grid in 13 regions of Ukraine, causing widespread outages in bitter temperatures, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, a day after he described recent progress on finding a peace deal as “quite solid.”The bombardment demonstrated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intention of pursuing the invasion of Ukraine, Zelenskyy said in a post on the Telegram messaging app. Ukrainian and European officials have complained that Putin is not sincerely engaging with U.S.-led peace efforts.The attack “is an extremely clear signal of Russian priorities,” Zelenskyy said. “A strike before Christmas, when people want to be with their families, at home, in safety. A strike, in fact, in the midst of negotiations that are being conducted to end this war. Putin cannot accept the fact that we must stop killing.”For months, U.S. President Donald Trump has been pressing for a peace agreement, but the negotiations have become entangled in the very different demands from Moscow and Kyiv.U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said Sunday he held “productive and constructive” talks in Florida with Ukrainian and European representatives. Trump was less effusive Monday, saying, “The talks are going along.”Initial reports from Ukrainian emergency services said the child died in Ukraine’s northwestern Zhytomyr region, while a drone killed a woman in the Kyiv region, and another civilian death was recorded in the western Khmelnytskyi region, according to Zelenskyy.Russia launched 635 drones of various types and 38 missiles, Ukraine’s air force said. Air defenses stopped 587 drones and 34 missiles, it said.It was the ninth large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine’s energy system this year and left multiple regions in the west without power, while emergency power outages were in place across the country, acting Energy Minister Artem Nekraso said. Work to restore power would begin as soon as the security situation permitted, he said.Ukraine’s largest private energy supplier, DTEK, said the attack targeted thermal power stations in what it said was the seventh major strike on the company’s facilities since October.DTEK’s thermal power plants have been hit more than 220 times since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Those attacks have killed four workers and wounded 59.Authorities in the western regions of Rivne, Ternopil and Lviv, as well as the northern Sumy region, reported damage to energy infrastructure or power outages after the attack.In the southern Odesa region, Russia struck energy, port, transport, industrial and residential infrastructure, according to regional head Oleh Kiper.A merchant ship and over 120 homes were damaged, he said.
KYIV, Ukraine —
Russia fired more than 600 drones and three dozen missiles at Ukraine in a large-scale attack that began during the night and stretched into daylight hours Tuesday, officials said. At least three people were killed, including a 4-year-old child, two days before Christmas.
The barrage struck homes and the power grid in 13 regions of Ukraine, causing widespread outages in bitter temperatures, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, a day after he described recent progress on finding a peace deal as “quite solid.”
The bombardment demonstrated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intention of pursuing the invasion of Ukraine, Zelenskyy said in a post on the Telegram messaging app. Ukrainian and European officials have complained that Putin is not sincerely engaging with U.S.-led peace efforts.
The attack “is an extremely clear signal of Russian priorities,” Zelenskyy said. “A strike before Christmas, when people want to be with their families, at home, in safety. A strike, in fact, in the midst of negotiations that are being conducted to end this war. Putin cannot accept the fact that we must stop killing.”
For months, U.S. President Donald Trump has been pressing for a peace agreement, but the negotiations have become entangled in the very different demands from Moscow and Kyiv.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said Sunday he held “productive and constructive” talks in Florida with Ukrainian and European representatives. Trump was less effusive Monday, saying, “The talks are going along.”
Initial reports from Ukrainian emergency services said the child died in Ukraine’s northwestern Zhytomyr region, while a drone killed a woman in the Kyiv region, and another civilian death was recorded in the western Khmelnytskyi region, according to Zelenskyy.
Russia launched 635 drones of various types and 38 missiles, Ukraine’s air force said. Air defenses stopped 587 drones and 34 missiles, it said.
It was the ninth large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine’s energy system this year and left multiple regions in the west without power, while emergency power outages were in place across the country, acting Energy Minister Artem Nekraso said. Work to restore power would begin as soon as the security situation permitted, he said.
Ukraine’s largest private energy supplier, DTEK, said the attack targeted thermal power stations in what it said was the seventh major strike on the company’s facilities since October.
DTEK’s thermal power plants have been hit more than 220 times since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Those attacks have killed four workers and wounded 59.
Authorities in the western regions of Rivne, Ternopil and Lviv, as well as the northern Sumy region, reported damage to energy infrastructure or power outages after the attack.
In the southern Odesa region, Russia struck energy, port, transport, industrial and residential infrastructure, according to regional head Oleh Kiper.
A merchant ship and over 120 homes were damaged, he said.
Pipeline could save NY up to $6B and reduce diesel truck use
Project still faces opposition from environmental and local groups
A coalition of Long Island business and real estate trade groups have renewed their support of a newly revived natural gas pipeline project.
The coalition, which includes the Association for a Better Long Island, Long Island Association, Long Island Builders Institute, Long Island Contractors Association, Hauppauge Industrial Association of LI, Long Island Board of Realtors and Commercial Industrial Brokers Society of Long Island, sent a letter to state officials last week reaffirming its support for the Northeast Supply Enhancement project, which would build a new 37-mile mostly underwater addition to an existing Williams Transco natural gas pipeline system that runs from Texas through parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, New York and onto Long Island.
The letter coincided with the August 16 end of public comment period for the proposed pipeline to get the greenlight from the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. After facing pushback from environmental advocacy groups, the project had been squashed by previous New York and New Jersey administrations, but it was revived by a reported deal between Gov. Kathy Hochul and President Donald Trump in May to unfreeze the Empire Wind project in exchange for advancing the pipeline. It’s unclear if New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy will reverse his previous opposition to the project.
The letter from the Long Island business and real estate organizations outlined the need for the pipeline project which it said, “will protect our region’s economic viability by making energy more reliable and affordable.” It cited independent analysis that the pipeline could save New Yorkers up to $6 billion in electricity costs over 15 years and reduce reliance on diesel-fueled truck deliveries, which will lower greenhouse gas emissions.
“As our region’s demand for energy continues to grow, it is critical that we look ahead to ensure that our economy has the necessary infrastructure in pace to meet that demand,” Kyle Strober, executive director of the Association for a Better Long Island, told LIBN. “While some ideologists will balk at the thought of a natural gas pipeline, the reality is this project is a pragmatic step forward that balances our immediate energy reliability needs with our long-term sustainability objectives.”
Williams, the company that would build the pipeline project, says the expansion of the system would add enough capacity to supply natural gas to the equivalent of 2.3 million homes, create about 2,000 jobs and generate $548 million in economic activity. The company had hoped to begin construction on the project in the third quarter of this year, with completion slated for Q4 2027.
However, the project still faces continued opposition from several environmental groups and local elected officials on Long Island, in New York City and New Jersey.
KYIV — Inna Kozich, a communications specialist from Kyiv, still cries when she remembers the first weeks of last year’s Russian siege of the Ukrainian capital.
“At one moment my kids and I slept in a corridor for three weeks. I was going to bed, not sure if we all wake up the next day,” Kozich remembers.
But the air defenses now protecting the capital make her feel safer in Kyiv than anywhere else in Ukraine — so much so that she’s afraid of venturing beyond the city.
“I was even afraid to take my kids for a summer vacation because I knew other regions unfortunately do not have as strong air defense as we now do. And I feel so much pain for Ukrainians from other regions, who are still forced to live under daily Russian bombardment,” Kozich said.
When the full-scale Russian invasion launched on February 24, 2022, a desperate President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for the West to close Ukraine’s skies to Russian aviation and missiles. That didn’t happen, but Ukraine’s allies have steadily sent some of their best air defense systems to help protect the country’s cities, and especially Kyiv.
When the war broke out, Kyiv relied on Soviet-era S-300 and Buk M1 medium-range anti-missile systems — a problem as replacement missiles are largely made by Russia.
Those defenses have now been beefed up by short-range Gepard systems from Germany and Avenger Short-Range Air Defense from the U.S. to knock down drones and cruise missiles. At medium range, Ukraine is using MIM-23 Hawks from the U.S. made by Raytheon; NASAMS, developed by Raytheon and Norway’s Kongsberg; and Germany’s IRIS-T SLM. Long-range defenses are provided by the U.S. Patriot PAC-3 and the Eurosam SAMP/T supplied by France and Italy.
Ukrainian air defense troops have shown they are capable of integrating modern systems with Soviet ones, Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv’s military administration, told POLITICO.
“We continue to expect support from allies and partners. We need more air defense. Diverse. And not only for the capital but also for every Ukrainian city. Each anti-aircraft missile complex is worth its weight in gold,” Popko said.
“We were waiting for those Patriots like manna from heaven,” Kozich said. “It was such a relief.”
Soon, people from other regions, where air defense is not as strong, started moving to Kyiv and the surrounding region, even though it is still frequently attacked. This weekend Russia sent waves of drones against Kyiv, most of which were shot down.
Ukrainian air defense troops have shown they are capable of integrating modern systems with Soviet ones | Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images
“Your accuracy, guys, is literally life for Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said in a weekend public address. “As winter approaches, there will be more Russian attempts to make the strikes more powerful. It is crucial for all of us in Ukraine to be one hundred percent effective.”
Safe haven
Ukraine’s cities have become lifeboats for people fleeing Russian attacks. Kyiv and the surrounding region now host almost 600,000 displaced people from other parts of Ukraine, the U.N.’s International Organization for Migration estimated in September. Other large cities are also seeing influxes of internal refugees, with about half a million now sheltering each in the Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions.
“The first active phase of internal migration began immediately after the liberation of the Kyiv region. People from cities where active hostilities were taking place were coming at that time. Then, when Patriot arrived, people from Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia began to actively move and look for housing in Kyiv, explaining this by the fact that Kyiv is protected and fewer missiles are flying here than in their cities,” said Oleksandr Zhytiuk, a local realtor.
“Ukrainians from abroad also started to return after this May, when Russians were shelling us almost daily, proving the effectiveness of air defense. Today people believe it is calmer in Kyiv,” he added.
That’s led to a jump in local real estate prices from a collapse in the early months of the war.
Before the full-scale invasion, about 3.9 million people lived in the Ukrainian capital. By the spring of 2022, however, 1.9 million had fled, said Denys Sudilkovsky, brand and business director of LUN, an online real estate platform. Most are now back.
“Back then it was not uncommon to find offers to rent apartments in Kyiv for the cost of utilities,” Sudilkovsky said.
Rental prices had almost returned to pre-invasion levels by the fall of 2022, according to LUN data.
“The return of people slowed down when Russians started shelling energy infrastructure. However, the winter of 2022-2023 showed Kyiv is capable of protecting its skies with modern Western air defense systems, and already from the spring of 2023, we began to observe a further increase in demand for long-term rental housing in Kyiv,” Sudilkovsky said.
Still a war zone
But the capital isn’t entirely safe — as this weekend’s attacks showed. Air raid sirens still howl almost daily, and Ukrainian officials urge people to remain cautious, Popko said.
“With the additional air defense systems, the level of protection of the capital from air attacks has become better. But I never get tired of repeating that the best defense is to go to the shelter during an air alert. Bitter experience proves that even shot-down missiles carry a deadly threat due to numerous debris,” he said.
While people in Kyiv do feel safer, those in Ukraine’s eastern and southern regions are still suffering from daily bombardments. Russians are hitting Odesa and its strategic port, as well as the regions of Kherson, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.
“I still remember the sound I heard when our Patriot shot down the first [Russian hypersonic] Kinzhal missile this summer. After that I know whatever Russians shoot at us, our air defense will shoot it down. However, other cities still cannot allow the luxury of feeling like I do,” Kozich said, adding she is still afraid to leave the city to go to her country house.
The Ukrainian government has been urging its allies to provide more air defenses to cover other cities.
“The more protected the Ukrainian skies, Ukrainian cities, and villages are, the more opportunities our people will have for economic activity, for production, among other things, [for] defense industries, ” Zelenskyy said in a video statement.
The Ukraine president also said Kyiv wants to co-produce weapons with its partners, and expects its allies to send more air defense systems by the end of the year to fend off Russia’s anticipated winter attacks on energy infrastructure.
“Russians are insidious, and intimidation of civilians with missile terror is one of their strategies. They will never give up shelling civilians and infrastructure. Therefore, we must be sure we have something to protect our people,” Kozich said.
Kyiv is unlikely to renew a gas transit deal that allows Russia’s Gazprom to export natural gas to the EU using pipelines running across Ukraine, Energy Minister German Galushchenko told POLITICO.
The 2019 transit deals runs until the end of 2024 and allows Gazprom to export more than 40 million cubic meters of gas a year via Ukraine, which earns Kyiv about $7 billion.
“I believe, by the winter of 2024, Europe will not need Russian gas at all,” Galushchenko said in a telephone interview. “If now profits from Russian gas pay for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and Gazprom’s private army, the only thing they should pay for in the future shall be reparations.”
He added that the war means “bilateral negotiations are impossible.”
The land route across Ukraine is one of only two pipeline links between Russia and the West. It still accounts for around 5 percent of the bloc’s gas imports, but that’s only a third of the prewar level.
It’s not only Ukraine that’s casting doubt on the future of gas transit.
Gazprom chief Alexei Miller warned last week his company will stop exports if Ukraine doesn’t drop its efforts to seize Russian state assets to enforce a $5 billion award for the energy infrastructure Moscow illegally expropriated when it annexed Crimea in 2014. Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz are also at loggerheads over a dispute on transit fees.
“If Naftogaz continues such unfair actions, it cannot be ruled out that the Russian Federation will impose sanctions. Then, any relations between Russian companies and Naftogaz will be simply impossible,” Miller said, according to the TASS news agency.
Despite the bombs, missiles and drones wreaking havoc on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, the web of pipelines has kept pumping gas to the EU — where it ends up mainly in Austria, Slovakia, Italy and Hungary.
Russian pipeline gas is not subject to sanctions but the European Commission has plans to end the bloc’s reliance on Moscow’s fossil fuels by 2027.
However, there is growing criticism the EU countries still using Russian gas aren’t moving fast enough to diversify. Austria’s Russian gas imports are back to prewar levels. Hungary gets around 4.5 billion cubic meters a year. In April, its government signed a deal with Gazprom to secure additional volumes.
Kyiv ending the gas deal could cause problems for those countries.
“If Ukrainian transit stops, Gazprom pipeline gas deliveries to EU countries could drop to between 10 and 16 billion cubic meters (45 to 73 percent of current levels),” said a June analysis by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. That could leave Europe with a shortfall in 2025 before additional liquefied natural gas capacity from the U.S. and Qatar comes online.
“For Europe as a whole, it’s pretty manageable. But for some countries at the end of the pipeline, Austria, Hungary and so on, the picture is a bit different,” said Georg Zachmann, senior fellow at economic think tank Bruegel. “We’d have to see a reshuffle of physical capacities, physical flows. That might come with additional cost for them.”
It would represent a much more permanent potential break with Moscow.
“Keeping the thing alive means there’s maybe a chance in the future to go back to that. But if the flows are stopped there’s a risk it’s going to be completely dismantled, and the privilege these countries had in the past of getting access to cheap Siberian gas is going to be gone forever,” Zachmann said.
Ukraine’s long-term goal is to boost its own gas production to meet EU demand, Oleksiy Chernyshov, CEO of Naftogaz, told POLITICO in May.
It’s an hour before dawn breaks over the North Sea. Aboard the KV Bergen, the officer of the watch is wide awake.
The 93-meter long Norwegian Navy Coast Guard vessel is on patrol, 50 miles out to sea. The sky is dark, the sea darker. But off the starboard bow, bright lights gleam through the rain and mist. Something huge and incongruous is looming out of the water, lit like a Christmas display.
“Troll A,” says Torgeir Standal, 49, the ship’s second in command, who is taking the watch on this bleak March morning.
It’s a gas platform — a big one.
When it was transported out to this desolate spot nearly 30 years ago, Troll A — stretching 472 meters from its seabed foundations to the tip of its drilling rig — became the tallest structure ever moved by people across the surface of the Earth. Last year, Troll, the gas field it taps into, provided 10 percent of the EU’s total supply of natural gas — heating homes, lighting streets, fueling industry.
“There are many platforms here,” says Standal, standing on the dark bridge of the Bergen, his face illuminated by the glow from the radar and satellite screens on his control panel. “And thousands of miles of pipeline underneath.”
And that’s why the Bergenhas come to this spot today.
In September 2022, an explosion on another undersea gas pipeline nearly 600 miles away shook the world. Despite three ongoing investigations, there is still no official answer to the question of who blew up the Nord Stream pipe. But the fact that it could happen at all triggered a Europe-wide alert.
The Norwegian Navy’s KV Bergen, seen in the background, after departing from the port of Bergen
Against a backdrop of growing confrontation with Moscow over its brutal invasion of Ukraine and its willingness to use energy as a weapon, the vulnerability of the undersea pipes and cables that deliver gas, electricity and data to the Continent — the vital arteries of comfortable, modern European life — has been starkly exposed.
In response, Norway, alongside NATO allies, increased naval patrols in the North Sea — an area vital for Europe’s energy security. The presence of the Bergen, day and night, in these unforgiving waters, is part of the effort to remain vigilant. The task of the men and women on board is to keep watch on behalf of Europe — and to stop the next Nord Stream attack before it happens.
The officers of the watch
But what are they looking for?
In recent weeks the Bergen has tracked the movements of a Russian military frigate through the North Sea — something that it has to do “several times every year,” says Kenneth Dyb, 47, the skippsjef, or commander of the ship.
The Russians have a right to sail through these seas out to the Atlantic, and it is very unlikely Moscow would be so brazen as to openly attack a gas platform or a pipeline. But, says Dyb, as his ship steams west to another gas and oil field, Oseberg, “it’s important to show that we are present. That we are watching.”
Recent reports that Russian naval ships — with their trackers turned off — were present near the site of the Nord Stream blasts in the months running up to the incident have reinforced the importance of having extra eyes on the water itself.
The Oseberg oil and gas field, 130 kilometers north-west of Bergen
Of course, the gas didn’t come for free. Norway has profited hugely from the spike in gas and oil prices that followed Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The state-owned energy giant Equinor made a record $75 billion profit in 2022. Oslo is sensitive to accusations of war profiteering — and keen to show Europe that it cares about its neighbors’ energy security as much as it cares about their cash.
But the threat to the pipelines could also be more low-key. One of the many theories about the Nord Stream attack is that it was carried out by a small group of divers, operating from an ordinary yacht. In such a scenario, something as seemingly innocent as a ship suddenly going stationary, or following an unaccustomed course through the water, could be suspicious. The Bergen’s crew have the authority to board and inspect vessels that its crew consider a cause for concern.
Russia’s covert presence in these waters has been acknowledged by Norway’s intelligence services in recent weeks. A joint investigation by the public broadcasters in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland uncovered evidence of civilian vessels, such as fishing ships, being used for surveillance activities. This is something that has been “going on forever,” according to Ståle Ulriksen, a researcher at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, but it has increased in intensity in recent years.
“We always look for oddities, anything that is unusual, like new ships in the area that have not been here before,” says Magne Storebø, 26, senior petty officer, as he takes the afternoon watch on the bridge later that day.
The sky is leaden and the horizon lost in cloud. Coffee in hand, Storebø casts his eye over the radar and satellite screens as giant windscreen wipers whip North Sea spray from the floor-to-ceiling windows. There are few ships around, all of them familiar to the crew; service vessels plying back and forth from the gas and oil platforms.
The Nord Stream incident and the new security situation has changed the way Storebø thinks about his work, he says.
He is “more aware of the consequences suspicious vessels could have,” he says. “More awake, you could say.”
Senior Petty Officer Magne Storebø keeps watch from the bridge
Soft-spoken and calm beyond his years, Storebø is philosophical about the potential dangers of his work. He has been in the Navy for four years, in which time war has broken out on the European continent and the threat to his home waters has come into sharp focus.
“If you are going to put a rainy cloud over your head and bury yourself down, I don’t think the Navy or the coastguard is the right place to work in,” he says in conversation with two shipmates later that day. “You need to adjust and to look in a positive direction — and to be ready in case things don’t go that way.”
Energy war round two
As Europe emerges from the first winter of its energy war with Russia, its gas supplies have held up better than almost anyone expected.
But as the Continent braces for next winter, the risk of another Nord Stream-style attack to a key pipeline is taken seriously at the highest levels of leadership.
“Things look OK for gas security now,” said one senior European Commission official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters of energy security. “But if Norway has a pipeline that blows up, we are in a different situation.”
EU policymakers see four key risks to gas security going into next winter, the senior official added: exceptionally cold weather; a stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery hoovering up global gas supply; Russia cutting off the remaining gas it sends to Europe; and last but not least, an “incident” affecting energy infrastructure.
Such an event might not only threaten supply but could potentially spark panic in the gas market, as seen in 2022, driving up prices and hitting European citizens and industries in the wallet. And nowhere is the potential for harm greater than in the North Sea.
Norway is now Europe’s biggest single supplier of gas. After Russian President Vladimir Putin and the energy giant Gazprom shut off supply via Nord Stream and other pipelines, Norway stepped up its own production in the North Sea, delivering well over 100 billion cubic meters to the EU and the U.K. in 2022. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Troll A herself in March this year — the first visit of a Commission president to Norway since 2011 — to personally thank the country’s president, Jonas Gahr Støre, for supplies that “helped us through the winter.”
“We have a huge responsibility, supplying the rest of Europe with energy,” Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram told POLITICO. “To be a stable, reliable producer of energy, of gas, is an important role for us and we take that very seriously. That is why we are also doing so much to protect this infrastructure.”
The vast majority of that gas is transported into northwest Europe via a complex network of seabed pipes — more than 5,000 miles of them in Norway’s jurisdiction alone. The North Sea has an average depth of just 95 meters. That’s not much deeper than the Nord Stream pipes at the location they were attacked.
“It actually doesn’t take a particularly sophisticated capability to attack a pipeline in relatively shallow waters,” says Sidharth Kaushal, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in the U.K. A small vessel, “some divers and an [explosive] charge” are all it could take, Kaushal says.
The navy chief
After the Nord Stream incident in September, suspicion instantly fell on Russia. Moscow has a record of operating in the so-called gray zone — committing hostile acts short of warfare, often covertly.
To date, the three investigations looking into the incident have yet to confirm that suspicion. But European governments — and their militaries — are not taking any chances.
In the days immediately following the explosions, NATO navy chiefs started calling each other to try to coordinate efforts to protect energy infrastructure, says Rune Andersen, the chief of Norway’s navy, speaking to POLITICO at Haakonsvern naval base, before the KV Bergen’svoyage.
Everyone had the same thought, he says. “If that happens in the North Sea, we will have a problem.”
Andersen joined the Navy as a young man in 1988, in the last days of the Cold War. Now 54, he is used to the Russian threat overshadowing Norway’s and Europe’s security.
“After decades of attempts to integrate or cooperate with Russia, we now have war in Europe. We see that our neighbor is brutal and willing to use military force,” he says grimly. “I worked in the Navy in the ’90s when it was enduring peace and partnership on the agenda. We are back to a situation where our job feels more meaningful — and necessary.”
Kenneth Dyb, the skippsjef, or commander of the ship
However, he points out, his own forces have so far not seen any Russian movements or operations “that are different to what they were before” the Nord Stream attacks. “The job we are doing is precautionary, rather than tailored to any specific threat,” he adds.
Even so, those early discussions with NATO allies have now formalized into daily coordination via the Allied Maritime Command headquarters in the U.K., to ensure there are always NATO ships on hand that can act as “first responders” to potential incidents. British, German and French ships have joined their Norwegian counterparts in the monitoring and surveillance effort.
It is “by nature challenging” to protect every inch of pipeline, all of the time, Andersen says.
The role of the Bergen and ships like it, he adds, is just “one bit of the puzzle.” Simply by their presence at sea, these ships increase the chances of catching would-be saboteurs in the act, and hopefully deter them from trying in the first place.
The goal, in other words, is to reduce the size of the “gray zone” — or to “increase the resolution” of the navy’s picture of the activity out on the North Sea, as Andersen puts it.
In collaboration with the energy companies and pipeline operators, unmanned underwater vehicles — drones — using cameras and high-resolution sonar have been used, Andersen says, to “map the micro-terrain” around pipelines. These are sensitive enough to spot an explosive charge or other signs of foul play.
Equinor, alongside the pipeline operator Gassco, has carried out a “large inspection survey” of its undersea pipeline infrastructure, a company spokesperson says. The survey revealed “no identified signs of malicious activities” but pipeline inspections are ongoing “continuously.”
Senior Petty Officer Simen Strand speaks to the crew. “We haven’t had much to fear in the past. We are probably less naïve nowadays,” he says.
Perhaps understandably, the heightened level of alert has led to the occasional false alarm. A spate of aerial drone sightings near Norwegian energy infrastructure around the time of the Nord Stream attacks last year included a report of a suspicious craft circling above Haakonsvern naval base itself.
“After a while, we concluded it was a seagull,” says Andersen, with the shadow of a grin.
Europe on alert
The navy chief is nonetheless deadly serious about the potential threat. A Nord Stream-style attack in the North Sea is possible. Anderson will not be drawn on the most vulnerable points in the network, saying only that “easy to access” places and “key hubs” are “two things in the back of mind when we think [about] risk.”
Throughout Europe, the alert has been raised. This month, NATO warned of a “significant risk” that Russia could target undersea pipelines or internet cables as part of its confrontation with the West.
Several countries are increasing patrols and underwater surveillance capabilities. The British Royal Navy accelerated the purchase of two specialist ocean surveillance ships, the first of which will be operational this summer. The EU and NATO have established a new joint task force focusing on critical infrastructure protection, and a “coordination cell” has been established at NATO headquarters in Brussels to improve “engagement with industry and bring key military and civilian stakeholders together” to keep the cables and pipelines secure.
Norway — and Europe — are in this struggle for the long haul, Andersen believes.
Indeed, even as Europe transitions from fossil fuels to green energy, the North Sea will remain a vital powerhouse of offshore wind energy, with plans for a huge expansion over the next 25 years. Earlier this year, the Netherlands’ intelligence services reported a Russian ship seeking to map wind farm infrastructure in the Dutch sector of the North Sea. “We think the Russians wanted to investigate the possibilities for potential future sabotage,” Jan Swillens, head of the Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service tells POLITICO in an emailed statement. “This incident makes clear that these kinds of Russian operations are performed closer than one might think.”
At the same time in the Baltic, countries are shoring up security around their infrastructure, at sea and on land. Late last year, Estonia carried out an underwater inspection of the two Estlink power cables and the Baltic Connector gas pipeline linking it to Finland, the Estonian navy says. Lithuania, meanwhile, is paying “special attention” to security around its LNG terminal at Klaipėda and the gas cargoes that arrive there, a defense ministry spokesperson says.
Torgeir Standal, left, the KV Bergen’s second in command
It was in Lithuania that Europe had its first major false alarm since the Nord Stream incident, when a gas pipeline on land exploded on a Friday evening in January. Foul play was briefly considered a possibility in the immediate aftermath but was quickly ruled out. The pipe was 40 years old, and had been subject to a technical fault.
The danger posed by Russia to infrastructure throughout Europe should not be underestimated, says Vilmantas Vitkauskas, director of Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre and a former NATO intelligence official.
“We know their way of thinking, [the way] they send signals or apply pressure,” Vitkauskas says. “We understand Russia quite well, and we are quite worried by what we see — and how vulnerable our infrastructure is in Europe.”
The watchers on the water
Back aboard the Bergen, life for the sailors carries on as normal. It’s a young crew, with an average age of around 30. Some are conscripts. It’s still compulsory in Norway for 19-year-olds to present themselves for national service, but only around one in four are actually recruited for the mandated 19-month stint.
The days are long. Surveillance, maintenance and exercises in search and rescue are all part of the crew’s regular routine. A helicopter from one of the Oseberg oil and gas platforms soars overhead, and the crew are drafted into an exercise winching people on and off the deck of the Bergenin the dead of night, simulating a rescue operation.
The ship needs to be ready to respond to an incident should the call come in from naval headquarters that help is required, or a suspicious vessel has been identified in their patch of the North Sea. But in their downtime, the sailors head to the gym on the lower deck, or play FIFA on the X-box in the sparse games room. Three hearty meals a day are served in the galley kitchen. There is even a ship’s band, cheekily named “Dyb Purple” after their commander. Dyb “takes it well,” says Senior Petty Officer Storebø.
In the daily whirl of activity, most of the young sailors don’t think of their work in the grand strategic sense of protecting the energy security — the warmth, the light, the industry — of an entire continent.
But the context of the Ukraine war — and the precedent set by the Nord Stream attack — has added a note of solemnity just below the surface of the comradeship and bonhomie.
“We are probably less naïve nowadays,” says 33-year-old Senior Petty Officer Simen Strand, who has a wife and two children, a boy and a girl, back home in Bergen. “We haven’t had much to fear in the past, there hasn’t been a concrete threat.”
Storebø agrees but is characteristically sanguine. “Russia has always been there … I’ve not personally felt any more unease than before.”
The next day, Storebø has the night watch, from midnight to four in the morning, as the Bergen travels back to base for a short stop before heading out to sea again.
It’s dark up on the bridge, with the glow of the control panel screens the only light inside. Twenty miles away, little lights can be seen on the Norwegian coast. A lighthouse flares to the south, at Slåtterøy, not far from Storebø’s home island of Austevoll. Beneath the waves, unseen, gas flows from the Troll field back to the mainland, where it is processed. From there, it continues its journey south to light the dark of European nights.
All is quiet but Storebø can’t afford to lose focus. “Coffee and music help,” he says. “I like the night shifts.”
As the officer of the watch, he has to be ready, should the radar, the satellites, or his own eyes see something out of the ordinary — ready to call the captain and raise the alarm.
That’s the job, he says. “You always have it in the back of your mind.”
Oil and gas giant Shell must donate more than $1 billion in unexpected profits from the potential sale of its assets in Russia to help rebuild Ukraine, according to a top Kyiv official.
In a letter to CEO Wael Sawan, dated April 18 and seen by POLITICO, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s economic adviser Oleg Ustenko called on Shell to share with Ukraine any profits from a potential Russian buyout of the British firm’s stake in a Siberian fossil fuel venture.
“If completed, this sale would represent the transfer of more than $1 billion in Russian cash into Shell’s accounts. That would be blood money, pure and simple,” Ustenko wrote.
“We call on Shell to put any Russian sale or dividend proceeds to work for the victims of the war — the same war that those assets have fuelled and funded,” he added.
Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, Shell announced it would exit the Russian market and write off up to $5 billion of assets and investments in the country as a result.
That included a 27.5 percent stake in the Sakhalin-2 project, a major oil field and offshore gas drilling venture in the Russian far east. The company wrote down around $1.6 billion for its stake in the site, and the Kremlin’s move to nationalize the venture in July last year raised concerns the firm would lose its capital.
However, Russian business media reported earlier this week that the government signed off on a trade in which the country’s second-largest gas producer, Novatek, would buy out Shell’s stake for 95 billion rubles — currently worth around $1.16 billion. Shell has previously said it is not involved in any negotiations on the issue.
Shell declined to give a public comment, but pointed out that the company is not actively engaged in any business with ongoing operations inside Russia, is not party to any current negotiations for the sale of a stake in Sakhalin-2 and has no clarity over what would happen to the proceeds from such a sale.
“We appreciate that as of this moment, Shell may not have a choice on whether to accept this offer,” Ustenko conceded in the letter, but maintained there is an “overwhelming” moral case for donating any such profits.
Rebuilding from the rubble
According to NGO Global Witness, the funds would amount to more than a tenth of the total repair bill for attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which a U.N. report last week warned could be as high as $10 billion.
“It would be egregious if Shell kept this money,” said Louis Wilson, who leads Ukraine policy at the NGO. “This is money they’ve told the world they’ve written off as a loss and it’s money that comes straight from the Russian oil and gas sector. Shell has already set a precedent that profits from the war should go to Ukraine.”
In March 2022, the energy firm said it would donate $60 million to humanitarian causes in Ukraine following an outcry over its decision to purchase a cargo of Russian crude to be refined into petroleum products. While the trade did not contravene sanctions at the time, Shell admitted “it was not the right decision” and apologized.
In an interview with POLITICO last month, Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko urged major energy companies to donate excess revenues to his country.
“A lot of energy companies get enormous windfall profits due to the war,” he said. “I think it would be fair to share this money with Ukraine. To help us to restore, to rebuild the energy sector.”
That idea is getting some support from EU countries — although the final decision of whether to send cash to Ukraine is up to companies and their shareholders.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s marathon three-day visit to Moscow was hailed by the Kremlin as the dawn of a new age of “deeper” ties between the two countries, as Russia races to plug gaping holes left in its finances by Western energy sanctions.
But while Vladimir Putin insisted a new deal struck during the negotiations on Wednesday will ensure Russia can weather the consequences of its invasion of Ukraine, analysts and European lawmakers say he’s overestimating just how much Beijing can help him balance the books.
Prior to the full-blown invasion, Russia’s oil and gas sector accounted for almost half of its federal budget, but embargoes and restrictions imposed by Western countries have since created a multi-billion dollar deficit.
With the country’s ever-influential oligarchs estimated to be out of pocket to the tune of 20 percent of their wealth — and industry tycoon Oleg Deripaska warning the state could run out of money as soon as next year — Putin is seeking to reassure them he’s opened up a massive new market.
“Russian business is able to meet China’s growing demand for energy,” Putin declared Tuesday, ahead of an opulent state banquet.
But analysts and Ukrainian officials have been quick to point out that actually stepping up exports of oil and gas to China will be a technical challenge for Moscow, given most of its energy infrastructure runs to the West, not the East.
Putin on Wednesday announced a major new pipeline, Power-of-Siberia 2, that will carry 50 billion cubic meters of gas to China via Mongolia to fix that problem.
But “in reality, it’s pretty unclear what has actually been agreed,” said Jade McGlynn, a Russia expert at King’s College London. “When it comes to terms and pricing, Beijing drives a hard bargain at the best of times — right now they know Russia’s not got a strong hand.”
Details of the financing and construction of the project have not yet been revealed.
And with predictions of a financial downturn swirling, Beijing may not need more energy to power sluggish industries, McGlynn added.
Yuri Shafranik, a former energy minister under Boris Yeltsin who now heads Russia’s Union of Oil and Gas Producers, suggested China’s appetite for natural gas “will certainly increase” in the coming years, and pointed out that Beijing would not have signed a pipeline agreement if it didn’t need the resources.
But, if the Kremlin was hoping to replace Europe as a reliable customer, it may end up disappointed, said Nathalie Loiseau, a French MEP who serves as chair of the Parliament’s subcommittee on security and defense.
“They chose to use energy to blackmail Europe even before the war,” she said. “Now, Russia has to find new markets and must accept terms and conditions imposed by others. China is taking advantage of the situation.”
In a bid to sweeten the terms, Putin invited all of Asia, Africa and Latin America to buy Russian oil and gas in China’s domestic currency, the renminbi, at the close of Xi’s speech on Tuesday. This came after Xi had already indicated at the China-Arab Summit in December in Riyadh that he would welcome the opportunity to trade oil and gas with Saudi Arabia on similar terms.
The outreach is a nod to the 1974 pact between then-U.S. President Richard Nixon and the Saudi kingdom to accept dollars in exchange for oil, which would in turn be spent on Western goods, assets and services. Non-Western nations have, however, been threatening to move away from dollar pricing in energy markets for years to no effect.
Still, Russia’s efforts to peel away from Western-dominated energy markets are unlikely to make much difference to its fortunes in the long run, according to Simone Tagliapietra, a research fellow at the Bruegel think tank.
“What we are seeing is it’s proving extremely difficult for Russia to diversify away from Europe, and they’ve been forced to become a junior partner of China,” Tagliapietra said. “After this, Moscow won’t be an oil and gas superpower as it was before, not just because of sanctions but also because of the green transition.”
BERLIN — German prosecutors have found “traces”of evidence indicating that Ukrainians may have been involved in the explosions that blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September 2022, according to German media reports Tuesday.
Investigators identified a boat that was potentially used for transporting a crew of six people, diving equipment and explosives into the Baltic Sea in early September. Charges were then placed on the pipelines, according to a joint investigation by German public broadcasters ARD and SWR as well as the newspaper Die Zeit.
The German reports said that the yacht had been rented from a company based in Poland that is “apparently owned by two Ukrainians.”
However, no clear evidence has been established so far on who ordered the attack, the reports said.
In its first reaction, Ukraine’s government dismissed the reports.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, denied the Ukrainian government had any involvement in the pipeline attacks. “Although I enjoy collecting amusing conspiracy theories about the Ukrainian government, I have to say: Ukraine has nothing to do with the Baltic Sea mishap and has no information about ‘pro-Ukraine sabotage groups,'” Podolyak wrote in a tweet.
Three of the four pipes making up the Nord Stream 1 and 2 undersea gas pipelines from Russia to Germany were destroyed by explosions last September. Germany, Sweden and Denmark launched investigations into an incident that was quickly established to be a case of “sabotage.”
The German media reports — which come on top of a New York Times report Tuesday which said that “intelligence suggests that a pro-Ukrainian group” sabotaged the pipelines — stress that there’s no proof that Ukrainian authorities ordered the attack or were involved in it.
Any potential involvement by Kyiv in the attack would risk straining relations between Ukraine and Germany, which is one of the most important suppliers of civilian and military assistance to the country as it fights against Russia’s full-scale invasion.
According to the investigation by German public prosecutors that is cited by the German outlets, the team which placed the explosive charges on the pipelines was comprised of five men — a captain, two divers and two diving assistants — as well as one woman doctor, all of them of unknown nationality and operating with false passports. They left the German port of Rostock on September 6 on the rented boat, the report said.
It added that the yacht was later returned to the owner “in uncleaned condition” and that “on the table in the cabin, the investigators were able to detect traces of explosives.”
But the reports also said that investigators can’t exclude that the potential link to Ukraine was part of a “false flag” operation aiming to pin the blame on Kyiv for the attacks.
Contacted by POLITICO, a spokesperson for the German government referred to ongoing investigations by the German prosecutor general’s office, which declined to comment.
The government spokesperson also said: “a few days ago, Sweden, Denmark and Germany informed the United Nations Security Council that investigations were ongoing and that there was no result yet.”
Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova dismissed the reports of Ukrainian involvement in the Nord Stream bombings, saying in a post on the Telegram social media site that they were aimed at distracting attention from earlier, unsubstantiated, reports that the U.S. destroyed the pipelines.
Veronika Melkozerova in Kyiv contributed reporting.
KYIV — When the Russians first came to the school where Larysa taught history in southeastern Ukraine, they asked for all the history and Ukrainian language textbooks.
The director refused to hand them over.
The school closed — but then reopened virtually on September 1, with up to 80 percent of its 700 pupils attending online. More than half of them remain in occupied Berdiansk in Zaporizhzhia region, said Larysa, who left in April for the Odesa region.
“Some go to Russian school and do homework with us,” she said. “We do all we can to make it incognito. We deleted all electronic lists, never put up any photos or screenshots or write names.”
Larysa did not give her surname or name the school for security reasons. Half of her colleagues are still on occupied territory and teaching online, risking imprisonment or worse from occupying forces — two were already detained and later released in September.
“They’re holding lessons in extreme conditions,” Larysa said. “Some were saved just because someone was on lookout. The wife was teaching a lesson and her husband was watching from the window so that she had time to hide everything before they came.”
After reopening in autumn 2021, following the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, Ukrainian schools have moved mostly back online following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February. But from bombs to blackouts to displacement to occupation, millions of Ukrainian children and young adults face an education interrupted, with educators struggling to work under desperate conditions.
Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion, more than 3,000 educational institutions in Ukraine — 10 percent of the total — have been damaged or destroyed, according to the Ministry of Education. School buildings are at risk of shelling or lack heating after massive damage to the country’s energy infrastructure, while blackouts and interrupted internet connections hamper learning from home.
Meanwhile, thousands of students and teachers living under occupation face pressure to switch to Russian schooling.
Education, with its propaganda potential to influence young hearts and minds, has become a front line in the war.
Ideological battle
Crimea, under Russian control for more than eight years, is an example of how Russian education in occupied territories aims — with eventual success — to erase Ukrainian identity and militarize children.
History lessons there claim that Ukraine was always part of Russia. Army cadet courses and classes sponsored by law enforcement agencies start for children as young as six, says Maria Sulyanina from the Crimean Human Rights Group.
Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion, more than 3,000 educational institutions in Ukraine — 10 percent of the total — have been damaged or destroyed | Genya Savilov AFP via Getty images
“We see that these children who were small kids when the occupation started, after eight years they have been turned into Russians,” she said.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has steadily been moving its educational system away from that inherited from the Soviet Union. It has relegated Russian to foreign language teaching; moved Russian literature to part of the study of world literature; and revised history courses to include events like the Holodomor, the Soviet-caused famine in the 1930s that killed millions of Ukrainians and is still largely denied in Russia.
Yet despite Russia’s carrot-and-stick approach — from September, parents in recently occupied territories are paid a one-off of 10,000 rubles (€145) to send their children to Russian school, plus 4,000 per month that they stay — many families are sticking to a Ukrainian education for their children, and teachers are still teaching it.
But the war has made Ukrainian education extremely tenuous.
When Russia invaded and occupied Kupiansk, a town in Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region, the vocational school where Viktoria Scherbakova taught was pressured to switch to the Russian system, and later damaged and looted.
Now, her classroom — and office — is the kitchen table at a small rented flat she shares with her two children and elderly parents in Kyiv, after she and her children fled the Russian occupation. The flat is also her daughter’s Kharkiv university virtual lecture hall and her son’s Kyiv ninth-grade classroom on days when air raid sirens sound and he can’t attend school.
The motor transport vocational college in Kupiansk where Scherbakova taught, which offered practical training for mechanics and drivers along with courses in transport logistics to some 300 pupils aged 14 to 18, exists as a displaced, virtual entity, with no home of its own. Although she is offering lessons online, Scherbakova doesn’t know if she’ll ever be able to teach there again in person.
“We’re not in Kyiv, not in Kharkiv, not in Kupiansk,” she said. “We’re not anywhere.”
The education front line
As of October, about 1,300 schools were on Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia. Teachers have been targeted for collaboration and detained, threatened and mistreated. Staff have been sent to Russia or Russian-occupied Crimea for retraining in the Russian education system or told they would be replaced by teachers from Russia if they refused to work.
In Kupiansk, after the then-mayor surrendered to the Russians on February 27, educational establishments stayed open. However, many parents kept their children out of school — including Scherbakova, whose 14-year-old son stayed at home although she herself continued to work at the college.
Apart from hoisting a Russian flag outside, the occupiers left them alone — until June. But by the end of term, it became clear that staff would be forced to decide: leave, or start the next school year under the Russian system.
“And if you didn’t work for them, it wasn’t clear what the consequences would be,” said Scherbakova. “If you openly said you didn’t support them, you would end up in their prisons or cellars.”
Many families are sticking to a Ukrainian education for their children, and teachers are still teaching it | Sergey Bobok/AFP via Getty images
One school director in Kupiansk, who refused to open her school after occupation, spent almost a month detained in the basement of the police station.
Of nearly 50 teaching and administrative staff in the vocational college, only seven refused to work with the Russian occupying authorities, according to Scherbakova.
“I’m ashamed of my college,” she said.
Spurred by the apparent ultimatum, Scherbakova and her children managed to leave Kupiansk for free Ukrainian territory in early June. The college was moved to operate virtually in Ukrainian-controlled territory, with her role shifting to acting director. With a colleague, they printed diplomas for those graduates who were reachable — 35 out of 53 — and developed a program to start the new teaching year.
But when she and a colleague started calling students, they found out that the teenagers had been enrolled to start the year in the college in Kupiansk — under the Russian system.
The physical and the virtual college started teaching parallel courses on September 1. Eight days later, Ukrainian forces took back Kupiansk.
When Scherbakova went back to Kupiansk after liberation, she found that though the college had been completely looted of its equipment and training vehicles, the library was full of untouched new Russian textbooks.
Some of the college staff who had remained in Kupiansk fled to Russia. Others got in touch with Scherbakova asking if they could work with her.
“At first I didn’t have an answer. I’m not the SBU [Ukrainian security services], I can’t judge them,” she said.
Some are under suspicion of collaboration. Later, the Ministry of Education clarified that teachers who had collaborated or brought in the Russian education system were banned from teaching. According to Ukrainian legislation on collaboration adopted in early September, teachers who engage in Russian propaganda in schools can be sentenced to prison terms. By mid-September, 19 proceedings had been opened against teachers in Ukraine.
Back in Kyiv,Scherbakova conducts online lessons and end-of-term exams amid daily power cuts since Russia began bombing essential infrastructure in Ukraine.
Her students, scattered around the country by war, face power outages too. Others, displaced abroad, are fitting lessons around schooling in Germany or England. And some remain in Kupiansk, recently liberated from occupation, where there is no internet, and the town comes under Russian shelling morning and night.
Viktoria Scherbakova conducts online lessons and end-of-term exams amid daily power cuts since Russia began bombing essential infrastructure in Ukraine | Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty images
“Those ones, all I can do is call and ask: ‘Are you alive? How did the night go? This is your exam question, just tell me something, whatever comes into your head,’” said Scherbakova.
“Of course, I can’t give them good marks. But I can’t abandon them.”
Lost generation
The physical challenges of war and the ideological battle as Russia seeks to impose its education system threaten the very basis of education in Ukraine: participation.
Scherbakova says her students, many of whom come from low-income families, are dropping out of online courses. “They need to survive. They dropped everything to find work,” she said. “Many of them had to leave their homes, and they need to live on something.”
Teachers are leaving the profession too — due to migration, retirement, low salaries, and war-related stresses and bans. The Kharkiv region has lost nearly 3,000 of 21,500 teachers since February, according to its education department.
In Kupiansk, as in many liberated towns and villages, the will to learn is not matched by the necessary infrastructure of electricity, internet and teachers. Children can only get an education if they move.
“We don’t want to leave. This is our land, and we want to live here,” said Iryna Protsenko, who was recently collecting humanitarian aid in Kupiansk with her daughter Zlata, 6. The family ran a small dairy business in the town before the war and stayed throughout occupation. “But now I’m afraid we will have to leave, because of school.”
Zlata, smiling shyly next to her mother, wants to learn, said Protsenko. She should start school this year. For the moment they read books together at home — easier now that electricity has been restored. “But she’s lonely.”
Ukrainian children were already starved of live interaction due to pandemic restrictions. Now, with only online teaching, plus the interrupted routines and safety restrictions of war, they are becoming increasingly stressed and withdrawn.
“It’s not so much the quality of education as the communication. They are losing socialization,” said Larysa, the teacher from Berdiansk.
Some parents compare the situation to that of their grandparents, who missed years of education during World War II. When the war was over, they had to study together with much younger children, earning themselves the name ‘pererostki,’ or ‘overgrown.’
“I think it will be like my grandma,” said Maria Varenikova, a journalist living in Kyiv with her son Nazar, 11. “Something will have to be figured out in Ukraine, given that for years children don’t have an education because of COVID, and now war.”
“They try hard and worry so much. They are lost children” said teacher Viktoria Scherbakova | Sergey Bobok/AFP via Getty images
Nazar’s school opened in person this September, keeping going with generators, bottled water and a basement bomb shelter. But Nazar is repeating the largely lost previous school year.
Scherbakova’s son, on top of the trauma of fleeing his home, had to cram in most of the last school year in extra classes over the summer in order to progress to the next grade in Kyiv.
“They try hard and worry so much,” said Scherbakova. “They are lost children.”
U.S. gas companies will be urged to up their exports to Europe via the U.K. under a new transatlantic energy partnership agreed by Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden.
The new “U.K.-U.S. Energy Security and Affordability Partnership” announced Wednesday includes a commitment from the White House to “strive to export at least 9-10 billion cubic metres of liquefied natural gas (LNG) over the next year via U.K. terminals,” No. 10 Downing Street said. The aspiration includes both gas for U.K. consumption and gas that might be re-exported to mainland Europe via pipeline.
The U.K. has three LNG terminals — two in Milford Haven, Wales and one in Medway, Kent — and has become a major hub for LNG supplies to Europe from the U.S.; a vital lifeline as the Continent has sought to replace Russian pipeline gas since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
The new partnership between the U.S. and the U.K. mirrors in many ways an existing U.S.-EU task force that also focuses on energy security. It will be led by a “joint action group” consisting of senior White House and U.K. government officials, Downing Street said, with the first virtual meeting to be held on Thursday.
Alongside helping to guarantee U.K. and EU gas supply, it will work on global investment in clean energy and efficiency, plus the promotion of nuclear energy, including small modular reactors, in third countries. British Prime Minister Sunak and U.S. President Biden discussed the partnership at the G20 summit in Indonesia last month.
“This partnership will bring down prices for British consumers and help end Europe’s dependence on Russian energy once and for all,” Sunak said. “Together the U.K. and U.S. will ensure the global price of energy and the security of our national supply can never again be manipulated by the whims of a failing regime. We have the natural resources, industry and innovative thinking we need to create a better, freer system and accelerate the clean energy transition.”
The LNG commitment will be dependent on U.S. gas exporting companies. As is the case with its task force with the EU, the U.S. government will likely play the role of encouraging companies to direct their cargoes to the U.K.
The two sides will “proactively identify and resolve any issues faced by exporters and importers,” Downing Street said, adding: “We will look to identify opportunities to support commercial contracts that increase security of supply.”
Adam Bell, a former U.K. government energy official and now head of policy at the Stonehaven consultancy, said there was a “diplomatic upside” to the U.K. facilitating gas flows to the EU: “Especially this winter when we’ll want pipes to flow the other way; Europe has the stores that we don’t.” The U.K. would also benefit from shipping charges as the gas passes through its network, Bell added.
Ukraine is bracing for three or four “massive” missile strikes from Russia, a top defense official in Kyiv said, while the Ukrainian president’s office suggested Moscow may wait for more frigid weather in order to “deal the most sensitive blow.”
Even as he gave the warning about imminent attacks, Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, said Kyiv’s forces are able to shoot down up to 90 percent of Russian missiles, thanks to supplies of Western air-defense weapons. Danilov made the comments in an online interview on Friday.
Ukraine is still recovering from the latest Russian missile attack on the nation’s energy infrastructure on November 23, which plunged a significant part of the country, including Kyiv, into darkness.
Despite efforts to restore power supplies, Ukraine’s biggest private electricity producer, DTEK, warned on Saturday about emergency power cuts in the capital as well as such major cities such as Odesa and Dnipro.
Danilov also said that the amount of Russian missile weapons is rapidly decreasing, and Moscow is forced to “look for additional supplies around the world.”
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, believes that Russia is changing the tactics of its missile strikes on Ukraine.
Russian forces “are waiting for an increase in frosts … so that the temperature at night drops to 8-10 degrees below zero, and at this moment they want to deal the most sensitive blow to Ukraine,” Podolyak said in an online interview Friday night.
Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that Russia may be trying to generate another wave of refugees with the aim “to pressure Western officials to offer pre-emptive concessions because the Russian military has been unable to achieve strategic success.”
LVIV, Ukraine — Russia’s missile barrages on Ukraine are having much less impact than Vladimir Putin might have wanted, thanks to Ukrainian improvisation and ingenuity.
The Russian military targeted Ukraine’s power grid last week, firing an estimated billion-euros worth of missiles at the country’s energy infrastructure — but for all that money the net result was to cause blackouts only for a day.
“We are very well prepared, and we think out of the box to coordinate after missile attacks,” Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, chairman of Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s state-owned electricity company, told POLITICO in an exclusive interview.
Engineers game-plan possible scenarios to be ready with “re-routing schemes” to compensate for the loss of a transmission station or — even worse — damage to a generating station. “So even with catastrophic damage, even during these hard times, we are still able to reconnect and deliver energy. Of course, we must curtail consumption to maintain the system’s stability,” he added.
Kudrytskyi says: “We can switch on the lights for 80 to 90 percent of Ukrainians within a day of an attack — although you must understand that’s not precise because it largely depends on the nature of the damage. It takes a few more days after restoring basic delivery to fully stabilize the system.”
That’s remarkable considering Ukraine has lost around 50 percent of its electricity capacity, he said, because of the damage caused by the Russian attacks — part of the Kremlin’s strategy to enlist “General Winter” to wear down Ukrainians and break their spirit. “In my humble opinion, we are doing quite well. This kind of assault, the scale of it, on a power grid has never been seen before in the modern world and therefore we must invent solutions. We don’t have anyone else to consult because simply nobody has ever experienced anything even close to this before,” Kudrytskyi said.
Ukrainians now joke that the country’s notoriously poor public services have improved since Russia’s invasion — instead of waiting weeks for electrical or water repairs, things get fixed in a matter of hours, they quip. And while the missile attack is deepening their anger toward Russia, they are also taking some solace and pride in the ingenuity behind the restoration of power and resumption of the water supply, which relies on Ukrenergo energy for pumping purposes, after missile and drone strikes.
The joke is not lost on Lviv’s mayor, Andriy Sadovyi, who told POLITICO that improvisation is part of the secret behind switching the lights back on.
“The power system wasn’t built with the idea that it would have to withstand attack,” Sadovyi said with a chuckle.
‘Coded to be ingenious’
He said Ukrainians have shaken off a debilitating Soviet mentality, one that says nothing is possible when a problem emerges. “We have discovered we’re coded to be ingenious, to improvise, to come up with solutions, to use what’s available and what’s at hand,” he said.
Last week, as with previous Russian assaults on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure — notably on October 10 — the country’s electrical engineers swung quickly into action to re-program computer systems to re-route power from undamaged transmission stations. The improvised patch-ups take time; and repairing physical damage — when possible — takes even longer.
Foreign experts working in the country also highlight Ukrainian improvisation — and not just in the energy sector.
“Where there’s a will, there’s a way. They are doing some amazing things,” says Terry Taylor, a 75-year-old British water engineer who left a comfortable retirement in Oxford to bring his decades of experience working in Asia and Africa to Ukraine.
Taylor’s been overseeing a project for a Danish charity in Mykolaiv, the southern coastal city which has withstood a months-long Russian siege. Thanks to Russia’s sabotaging a pipeline in April, Mykolaiv has been without potable water for half-a-year. “There’s a stunning unity of purpose and passion here; it really is remarkable,” Taylor said. “People just get on with it; clean away debris and repair as best they can,” he told POLITICO.
When it comes to the power grid, the Ukrainians were also prepared — even before Russia’s invasion in February. They had been storing up stocks of spare parts, switches and cabling. “We accumulated significant stock of materials and equipment, probably one of the largest in the world,” Ukrenergo’s Kudrytskyi said.
Until October, when Russian targeting of energy infrastructure started in earnest, Ukraine had even been able to export electricity to the EU, but it is now in need of imports. Kadri Simson, the EU energy commissioner, visited Kyiv on November 1 and expressed the bloc’s readiness to help replenish stocks amid the latest waves of Russian attacks. And it’s a big job.
Strong message
The huge stocks of equipment and material that Ukraine has laid by are running out fast, Kudrytskyi said.
Mayor Sadovyi in Lviv admits that if the attacks continue and the winter is a harsh one, improvisation will have its limits. Sadovyi said that in last week’s attack the Russians managed to cause some damage to the interconnection with neighboring Poland.
“Today my message must be strong. We must be ready to survive without electricity and heating for one, two, maybe three weeks,” he said.
He said Lviv and Ukraine are going to need tens of thousands of diesel- and thermal-power generators.
How many exactly? He pulls a face when asked indicating that it is almost incalculable. Lviv bought three huge diesel generators six months before the war, and they have been used three times to maintain the hot water system for 50 percent of the city’s population, he said.
One of his biggest worries is how to keep Lviv’s main hospital going, which has been expanded enormously to rehabilitate both military and civilian war wounded and to manufacture and fit prosthetics. Sadovyi and other city mayors in Ukraine are in frequent contact to compare notes and to offer each other advice and assistance when they can.
But as the first snows of the season fall and with temperatures already dropping below zero Celsius, he’s in no doubt his city, where he has been mayor for 16 years, could soon be in a perilous position — a sentiment echoed by Kudrytskyi for the whole of Ukraine.
“We are preparing as best we can to build up resilience and we have to be ready for worst-case scenarios,” Kurdrytskyi said. “So, outages may be longer than the standard current five hours, but we are doing everything we can to try to prevent that happening.”
“But our stock is being exhausted,” he said. “We need spare parts, cabling relays for sure, but also some quite large items,” such as transformers and switching equipment. “We need them quickly and we can’t wait for them to be manufactured — we must find them somewhere soon,” Kudrytskyi said.
Aside from that, the energy boss makes a plea — echoed by city mayors like Sadovyi and national Ukrainian political leaders — for the West to supply more air-defense systems to shield the power grid from Russian missiles and air strikes.
“We are fighting on an energy front. More air-defense systems would increase our chances to avoid massive damage to our grid. So the more air-defense systems, the less damage,” he said.
“Because even if you look at the last big onslaught last Tuesday, we managed to knock out 70 or so of the 100 missiles launched at us, giving us a better bet to keep the system integrated, keep it running and to repair [it] than might otherwise have been the case,” Kudrytskyi said.
The EU is under immense pressure to cap the price of imported natural gas to contain energy costs — but many of the companies making a fortune selling cheap U.S. gas to the Continent at eye-watering markups are European.
The liquefied natural gas (LNG) loaded on to tankers at U.S. ports costs nearly four times more on the other side of the Atlantic, largely due to the market disruption caused by a near-total loss of Russian deliveries following the invasion of Ukraine.
The European Commission has come under fierce pressure to sketch out a gas price cap plan, but some countries, led by Germany, worry such a measure could prompt shippers to send gas cargoes elsewhere. The Commission is also reluctant, and its proposal issued Tuesday sets such demanding requirements that they weren’t met even during this summer’s price emergency.
But a large part of the trade is in European hands, according to America’s biggest LNG exporter.
“Ninety percent of everything we produce is sold to third parties, and most of our customers are utilities — the Enels, the Endesas, the Naturgys, the Centricas and the Engies of the world,” said Corey Grindal, executive vice president for worldwide trading at Cheniere Energy, rattling off the names of big-name European energy providers.
Cheniere, which this year saw 70 percent of its exported LNG sail to Europe, sells its gas on a fix-priced scheme based on the American benchmark price, dubbed Henry Hub, which is currently at about $6 per million British thermal units.
On average, the price across all Cheniere contracts is 115 percent of Henry Hub plus $3, Grindal said. That works out to about €33 per megawatt-hour. For comparison, the current EU benchmark rate, dubbed TTF, is €119 per MWh.
It’s a big markup for whoever is reselling those LNG cargoes into Europe’s wholesale market, profiting from fears that there may not be enough gas to last the winter.
Despite fears that any EU cap will send gas to higher bidders in Asia and result in bloc-wide shortages, Grindal gave a resounding “no” when asked if a cap would have any impact on how Cheniere does business with European companies.
“Our balance sheet is underpinned by those long-term contracts,” he added.
Translation: If buyers choose to trade their precious cargoes away for higher profits beyond Europe once they receive them, that’s their decision.
Blame game
“The United States is a producer of cheap gas that they are selling us at a high price … I don’t think that’s friendly,” said French President Emmanuel Macron | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
The difference between U.S. and EU gas prices hasn’t gone unnoticed by European politicians — but most of the finger-pointing has been at American producers rather than the resellers closer to home.
“In today’s geopolitical context, among countries that support Ukraine there are two categories being created in the gas market: those who are paying dearly and those who are selling at very high prices,” French President Emmanuel Macron told a group of industrial players last week. “The United States is a producer of cheap gas that they are selling us at a high price … I don’t think that’s friendly.”
Macron’s dig conveniently ignored that the largest European holder of long-term U.S. gas contracts is none other than France’s own TotalEnergies.
At the company’s latest earnings call last month, TotalEnergies CFO Jean-Pierre Sbraire trumpeted the fact that the firm’s access to more than 10 million tons of U.S. LNG annually “is a huge advantage for our traders, who can arbitrage between the U.S. and Europe.”
“And now, given the price of LNG, each cargo represents something like $80 million, even $100 million. So, when we are able reroute or to arbitrage between the different markets, of course, it’s a very efficient way to maximize the value coming from that business,” Sbaire added. “Cash flow generation of this order of magnitude marks the start of a new era for the company.”
Spain’s Naturgy — which has some 5 million tons of U.S. LNG a year from Cheniere under contract — has also earned nearly five times more trading gas so far this year compared with 2021 thanks to “the increased spread between [Henry Hub] and TTF,” it wrote in its half-year report.
Long-term contracts with the U.S. weren’t always so profitable. In fact, from 2016 to at least 2018, buyers were mostly losing money on the fixed deals, leading some to sell them off.
In 2019 Spain’s Iberdrola, for example, pawned off its 20-year Cheniere contract to Asian trader Pavilion Energy, which is now benefiting from selling into a high-priced global market.
In the U.K, Centrica tried — and failed — to sell off its LNG portfolio in 2020 when government-ordered lockdowns drove real-time prices through the floor. That included a 20-year fixed Cheniere contract set to run through 2038.
Now that real-time prices have shot back up, Centrica — part of Shell-owned British Gas — is reaping the rewards and eagerly snapping up more long-term contracts, most recently a 15-year deal with U.S. LNG exporter Delfin beginning in 2026.
“This is a really important profit stream for us,” Centrica CFO Chris O’Shea told investors on a Friday trading update call.
Unlike some producers — for example in the Middle East — which restrict the final destination of the LNG to consumers in Asia and prevent it being sold onward at a higher price, American gas changes ownership the minute it’s loaded onto a ship and comes with no strings attached.
That leaves buyers free to redirect the precious supply wherever it’s most profitable — sometimes at the expense of their downstream clients, if it’s cheaper to break those pre-existing domestic delivery commitments.
“We can only control what we can control,” said Cheniere’s Grindal. “U.S. LNG is destination-free.”
But as far as getting it on the ship at previously agreed prices, “our focus is being that reliable supplier, being committed to the obligations that we’ve made to our customers, and we’re committed to doing everything that we can to help the EU in this situation.”
Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe.
LVIV, Ukraine — Inna missed her father’s funeral.
The grieving 36-year-old Ukrainian lawyer learned of his death as she and her two young daughters — one aged seven, the other five — boarded a flight from Heathrow Airport in London to Poland.
It was at the mist-shrouded railway station at Przemyśl, 16 kilometers from the Poland-Ukraine border, that her plan to pay her graveside respects unraveled, as salvoes of Russian missiles slammed into Ukraine’s power grid, also impacting Inna’s hometown of Vinnytsia.
The barrage on the country’s energy infrastructure — the worst it’s experienced since October 10 — not only threw major cities and small villages into darkness and cold, but it’s also wreaked havoc on Ukraine’s railways, grinding trains to a halt and leaving them powerless at stations.
Away from the front lines of battle, this is what Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine looks like — a slight, dignified blond-haired woman, with two young children in tow, trying to mourn her father and reach her 72-year-old mother to comfort her.
Knowing the journey back home would be arduous, Inna had tried to persuade her daughters to stay in Clapham, south London, where the three have been living with an English family for the past six months. “They have been very kind to us,” she explained.
Inna’s studying business administration now. Her daughters are in school. “Six months ago, they knew no English; it was hard at first for them,” she told me. Now, the kids chatter away in English, with the elder explaining her favorite thing to do at school is drawing; and the younger chiming in to announce she loves swimming.
But that calm, predictable life they’ve been living in England seemed far away right now.
The girls had insisted on accompanying their mother to Ukraine because they wanted to see their grandparents … and their cats. “When is the train coming?” the oldest demanded several times.
And as the night drew in, and the cold settled along the crowded platform at Przemyśl’s train station, other flagging, bundled-up kids started asking the same question, while parents — mainly mothers — tried to work out how to complete their journeys across the border.
As they did so and debated their options, a Polish policewoman insisted that smoking wasn’t allowed on the platform, and volunteers wearing orange or yellow vests offered hot tea, apples and fruit juice. Still, there was no sign of the scheduled train, and no information about it either.
While we waited on the platform, through the windows of a small apartment block across the road, Polish families could be seen glued to their television sets — no doubt absorbing the news that a missile had hit a grain silo in a Polish village just 100 kilometers north of Przemyśl.
As the news added to the disquiet among the Ukrainians at the station, the worry became palpable up and down the platform. Daryna, a dark-haired, middle-aged woman, was heading to see her 21-year-old son. “I’ve been living in Scotland with my daughter,” she said. “But he’s studying in Kyiv, and I want to make sure he’s OK.”
Some families are attempting to return to Ukraine to visit or mourn with family, but Russian attacks on the country’s infrastructure left many asking “When is the train coming?” | Paula Bronstein/Getty Images
“Going home now is like being transported from the normal to the abnormal,” she added.
Galina, the director of a small clothing company, was impatient to see her 10-year-old daughter, whom she left in the care of her grandmother in Kyiv while making a quick business trip to Poland. She kept texting them to make sure they were safe, but reassuring replies didn’t assuage her, as both she and the others kept scrolling on social media for news about their hometowns — Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Rivne and Lviv, all affected by the nationwide missile bombardment.
My destination, Lviv, was badly impacted by the recent blasts. Several explosions were heard from the city on Tuesday, prompting Mayor Andriy Sadovyi to warn on his Telegram channel that everyone should “stay in shelter!” However, many won’t have received that message, as neither the internet nor the cellular networks were working in parts of the city. Officials said missiles and drones caused severe damage to the power grid and energy infrastructure, despite reports of successful missile interceptions too.
Some 95 kilometers from Przemyśl, Lviv was cold and damp when we arrived shortly after dawn on Wednesday. After giving up on the train, we’d crossed the border by foot and cadged a lift to the city.
As we made our way there, the city was largely without power, the traffic lights weren’t working, and the air raid sirens were clamoring. The only lights we could see were from buildings equipped with generators.
At my hotel, the manager, Andriy, told me it takes 37 gallons of diesel an hour to keep the electricity flowing, but he cautioned the water might not be that hot. “When the all-clear sounds, we will serve breakfast for another hour,” he added helpfully.
By the time I finished breakfast, electric trains were already up and running again in Lviv, less than a day after the city’s generation and transmission infrastructure was hit, and by evening, the lights were on all across the city — yet further testament to Ukrainian resilience, improvisation and refusal to be cowed.
And elsewhere, too, electrical engineers — the new heroes of Ukrainian resistance — managed to patch up the damage to get trains running and homes lit. “We had a blackout yesterday [Tuesday],” friends in Ternopil, a two-hour drive east of Lviv, told me by text. “The whole city was without electricity and water for several hours. But eventually everything returned to normal,” they added.
But with winter approaching and Russia planning to seemingly try to wear down Ukrainian resistance not so much on the battlefield but by targeting its civilian energy and water infrastructure, there are questions about how the country can ride out the pummeling.
In July and August, tens of thousands of Ukrainians who fled overseas started returning home. Manned by a colorful variety of NGOs and charities at the border crossings into Poland, the tent camps thus became largely redundant as the refugee flood leaving Ukraine turned to a trickle, and the tents eventually came down. But now they may well be needed again.
“A lot of Ukrainians will leave if there’s no heat and no electricity,” predicted Inna. She’s now in a quandary, torn between planning for a life in England — if she can get her mother a visa — or seeing her future in Ukraine.
“I was a property lawyer in Odesa, I had a good life, and things were going well. But that’s all lost,” she said, trailing off, lost in her thoughts.
The British Navy stands accused by the Russian government, without evidence, of blowing up the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea, a claim the U.K. rejected as “false.”
“According to available information, representatives … of the British Navy took part in the planning, provision and implementation of a terrorist attack in the Baltic Sea on September 26 this year — blowing up the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines,” the Russian Defense Ministry said on Saturday, according to media reports.
The accusation did not include any further information or evidence to support claims of state sabotage. The Russian government also said that U.K. operatives helped plan a drone attack on its fleet at the Black Sea port of Sevastopol in Crimea on Saturday.
The U.K. Defense Ministry quickly denied Moscow’s claim.
“To detract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defense is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale,” the British ministry said in a tweet. “This invented story says more about arguments going on inside the Russian government than it does about the West.”
Russia had already blamed the West in general terms for undersea explosions that damaged the Nord Stream pipes last month. Those blasts have likely rendered the energy infrastructure unusable, according to the German government.
An investigation by Danish and Swedish authorities is ongoing into the explosions, which took place inside the two countries’ exclusive economic zones close to the Baltic Sea island of Bornholm.
Russia had already stopped gas transit through the pipeline sparking concerns earlier this year that it would use gas supply to blackmail Europe as its brutal war on Ukraine continues.
While the first phase of Nord Stream had been operating for nearly 11 years, the second phase of the project — dubbed Nord Stream 2 — had not yet been brought into commercial operation.
Russia’s General Sergei Surovikin is no stranger to mass murder and spreading terror.
In Chechnya, the shaven-headed veteran officer, who has the physique of a wrestler and an expression to match, vowed to “destroy three Chechen fighters for every Russian soldier killed.” And he’s remembered bitterly in northern Syria for reducing much of the city of Aleppo to ruins.
The 56-year-old air force general also oversaw the relentless targeting of clinics, hospitals and civilian infrastructure in rebel-held Idlib in 2019, an effort to break opponents’ will and send refugees fleeing to Europe via neighboring Turkey. The 11-month campaign “showed callous disregard for the lives of the roughly 3 million civilians in the area,” noted Human Rights Watch in a scathing report.
Now he is repeating his Syrian playbook in Ukraine.
Two weeks ago, Vladimir Putin appointed Surovikin as the overall commander of Russia’s so-called special military operation, to the delight of Moscow’s hawks. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov praised Surovikin as “a real general and a warrior.” He will “improve the situation,” Kadyrov added in a social media post.
But reversing a series of stunning battlefield Ukrainian victories and shifting the tide of the war may be beyond even the ruthless Surovikin. Ukrainians have shown throughout the year they’re made of stern stuff and aren’t going to be intimidated by war crimes — and they’ve endured bombing and bombardments before by equally unscrupulous Russian generals.
But Western military officials and analysts note there are already signs of more tactical coherence than was seen under his predecessor General Alexander Dvornikov. “His war tactics totally breach the rules of war but unfortunately they proved effective in Syria,” a senior British military intelligence officer told POLITICO. “As a war strategist he has a record of effectiveness — however vicious,” the officer added.
Surovikin and other officials point to the targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with a massive wave of attacks the past week. Strikes at the weekend resulted in power outages across the country leaving more than a million households without electricity, the deputy head of the Ukrainian presidency, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, said Saturday.
“These are vile strikes on critical objects,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address. “The world can and must stop this terror,” he said. “The geography of this latest mass strike is very wide,” Zelenskyy added. “Of course we don’t have the technical ability to knock down 100 percent of the Russian missiles and strike drones. I am sure that, gradually, we will achieve that, with help from our partners. Already now, we are downing a majority of cruise missiles, a majority of drones.”
Intercepting a majority of what’s being fired by the Russians at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, though, isn’t enough to halt the disruption Surovikin is endeavoring to provoke with the strikes. The scale of the damage caused to Ukraine’s power system at the weekend exceeded what was inflicted in the first wave of strikes on energy infrastructure on October 10, according to a Telegram post by Ukrenergo, the state grid operator.
Cheap shots
Around a third of the country’s power stations have been destroyed since the attacks started, Ukrainian authorities say.
And for Russia the cost of the aerial assault is cheap, relying as it does on Iran’s Shahed-136 unmanned aerial vehicles, basically flying bombs nicknamed “kamikaze drones” because they are destroyed on impact.
Russian President Vladimir Putin with then-PM Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Surovikin in 2017 | Pool photo by Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images
The drones, which have a flying range of 2,500 kilometers, loiter over a target until ordered to attack. With a wingspan of 2.5 meters they can be difficult to identify on radar and cost only an estimated €20,000 to make, compared, say, to cruise missiles costing up to €2 million to produce.
Last week the White House said Iranian drone experts — trainers and tech support workers — have been deployed on the ground in Russia-annexed Crimea to help launch attacks on Ukraine. “Tehran is now directly engaged on the ground, and through the provision of weapons that are impacting civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine,” said national security spokesman John Kirby.
But turning to Iran for assistance also demonstrates a Russian weakness, says a Pentagon adviser. That they are using Iranian drones suggests they really are running out of missiles. “I don’t think their capabilities are anyway as good as they claim. I’ve always thought that the Russians were a bit of a hollow force. They don’t have depth in range with capabilities and they can’t really apply them very effectively. The fact that they’re going to Iranians for drone technology, that’s a pretty sad statement about the once vaunted Russian military-industrial or Soviet military-industrial complex,” the adviser told POLITICO.
And while the drones are helping to cause considerable damage, their light explosive payloads at 36 kilograms present the Russians with a problem – they are not powerful enough to cause “decommissioning” damage to big power stations and so are being aimed at smaller sub-stations instead. Eventually, too, Western and Ukrainian experts will find ways to jam the GPS system the drones depend on to shift them off target. So, they may have a short shelf life of effectiveness, say Western officials.
Not having sufficient depth in terms of capabilities isn’t the only problem facing Russian generals. One of the most debilitating problems for the Russians has been the lack of small-unit leadership and competent supervision on the battlefield.
Ukrainian servicemen and police officers stand guard in a street after a drone attack in Kyiv on October 17, 2022 | Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images
The Ukrainians since 2014 have been steeped in U.S. military doctrine and training, which focuses on building a professional corps of corporals and sergeants who understand the big picture and are given the delegated authority to make decisions on the battlefield as they lead their units, according to John Barranco, an analyst at the Atlantic Council who oversaw the U.S. Marines’ initial operations in Afghanistan after the 9/11 terror attacks and served in Iraq.
The failure of the Russians to build up such a cadre has plagued them in Ukraine and it isn’t a deficiency Surovikin has time to rectify. In fact, the situation is likely to worsen with the Kremlin now throwing into inadequately battle-trained conscripts from Putin’s partial mobilization order.
Russian retreat
After just a handful of days’ training, conscripts are already dying. And draftees are being sent to what is now the crucial front in this stage of the war — the southern port city of Kherson — where Russian authorities have ordered all residents to leave ahead of a closing advance by Ukrainian troops.
Kherson city is the only regional capital Russia has managed to seize since the invasion began. It was a key prize in establishing a land bridge between Crimea and Ukraine’s south, as well as opening the way for a potential assault on the major Black Sea port of Odesa.
But a Ukrainian counteroffensive that started in the summer is now bearing down on Kherson city. Russia’s tactical position in the area is highly compromised, with units of paratroopers dug in on the west bank of the Dnieper River, where they are highly vulnerable. “From a battlefield geometry point of view, it is a terrible position for the Russians,” Jack Watling, a land warfare expert at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute, told POLITICO.
Watling, who’s been conducting operational analysis with Ukraine’s general staff, says the Russians on the west bank are among their most capable troops but can’t be resupplied reliably “at the scale needed to make them competitive” and they won’t be able to counterattack.
“The Ukrainians have the initiative and can dictate the tempo,” Watling said. “From a purely military point of view, the Russians would be much better off withdrawing from Kherson city and focusing on holding the river [from the east bank] and then putting the bulk of their forces on the Zaporizhzhia axis, but for political reasons they have been slow to do that and seem to ready to fight a delaying action.”
A view taken on October 19, 2022 shows a road sign reading “Kherson” in the town of Armyansk in the north of Moscow-annexed Crimean peninsula bordering the Russian-controlled Kherson region in southern Ukraine | AFP via Getty Images
That seems in line with what Ukraine’s general staff reported at the weekend. Russian troop movements have been occurring in the Kherson region with some units preparing for urban combat, while others have been withdrawing.
In short, Surovikin is being forced to try to pull off one of the most difficult of military maneuvers — an orderly retreat to reposition forces, including draftees with scant training and units that have no cohesion. When more experienced Russian troops tried the same move near Kharkiv in northeast Ukraine last month, they suffered a rout.
Thuggery alone won’t save Russian conscripts from motivated and agile Ukrainian forces. Whether Surovikin has the tactical skills to navigate a dangerous retreat will be what counts.
Russian missile strikes hit energy infrastructure in central and western parts of Ukraine Saturday morning, leaving hundreds of thousands of people without power, Ukrainian officials said.
Ukraine’s air force said in a statement that Russia launched a “massive missile attack” at 7 a.m. local time, targeting “critical infrastructure in different regions of the country.” The air force said it had managed to shoot down 18 cruise missiles launched by Russian troops.
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged foreign capitals to boost Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, tweeting: “There should not be a minute of delay in capitals deciding on air defense systems for Ukraine.”
According to the Associated Press, the strikes have so far left residents without electricity in parts of Odesa, Cherkasy, Kropyvnitsky, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi and Lutsk.
The intensified missile attacks come as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nears its eighth-month mark.
Meanwhile, authorities in Russia-occupied Kherson urged residents to “immediately leave the city” Saturday, according to media reports, as Ukrainian forces fight to retake the region.
For more than a week, the Russian-appointed authorities have been calling on Kherson residents to leave the city and, if possible, head to the annexed Crimea and Russian regions. But this is the first time the authorities have made a categorical demand to evacuate. The Ukrainian authorities accuse Russia of deporting the population.
The apparent sabotage of both Nord Stream gas pipelines may be one of the worst industrial methane accidents in history, scientists said Wednesday, but it’s not a major climate disaster.
Methane — a greenhouse gas up to 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide — is escaping into the atmosphere from three boiling patches on the surface of the Baltic Sea, the largest of which the Danish military said was a kilometer across.
On Tuesday evening, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the “sabotage” and “deliberate disruption of active European energy infrastructure.”
Here are eight key questions on the impact of the leaks.
1. How much methane was in the pipelines?
No government agency in Europe could say for sure how much gas was in the pipes.
“I cannot tell you clearly as the pipelines are owned by Nord Stream AG and the gas comes from Gazprom,” said a spokesperson for the German climate and economy ministry.
The two Nord Stream 1 pipelines were in operation, although Moscow stopped delivering gas a month ago, and both were hit. “It can be assumed that it’s a large amount” of gas in those lines, the German official said. Only one of the Nord Stream 2 lines was struck. It was not in operation but was filled with 177 million cubic meters of gas last year.
Estimates of the total gas in the pipelines that are leaking range from 150 million cubic meters to 500 million cubic meters.
2. How much is being released?
Kristoffer Böttzauw, the director of the Danish Energy Agency, told reporters on Wednesday that the leaks would equate to about 14 million tons of CO2, about 32 percent of Denmark’s annual emissions.
Germany’s Federal Environment Agency estimated the leaks will lead to emissions of around 7.5 million tons of CO2 equivalent — about 1 percent of Germany’s annual emissions. The agency also noted there are no “sealing mechanisms” along the pipelines, “so in all likelihood the entire contents of the pipes will escape.”
Because at least one of the leaks is in Danish waters, Denmark will have to add these emissions to its climate balance sheet, the agency said.
But it is not clear whether all of the gas in the lines would actually be released into the atmosphere. Methane is also consumed by ocean bacteria as it heads through the water column.
3. How does that compare to previous leaks?
The largest leak ever recorded in the U.S. was the 2015 Aliso Canyon leak of roughly 90,000 tons of methane over months. With the upper estimates of what might be released in the Baltic more than twice that, this week’s disaster may be “unprecedented,” said David McCabe, a senior scientist with the Clean Air Task Force.
Jeffrey Kargel, a senior scientist at the Planetary Research Institute in Tucson, Arizona, said the leak was “really disturbing. It is a real travesty, an environmental crime if it was deliberate.”
4. Will this have a meaningful effect on global temperatures?
“The amount of gas lost from the pipeline obviously is large,” Kargel said. But “it is not the climate disaster one might think.”
Annual global carbon emissions are around 32 billion tons, so this represents a tiny fraction of the pollution driving climate change. It even pales in comparison to the accumulation of thousands of industrial and agricultural sources of methane that are warming the planet.
“This is a wee bubble in the ocean compared to the huge amounts of so-called fugitive methane that are emitted every day around the world due to things like fracking, coal mining and oil extraction,” said Dave Reay, executive director of the Edinburgh Climate Change Institute.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said it was roughly comparable to the amount of methane leaked from across Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure on any given working week.
A leak was reported near the Nord Stream 2 pipeline off the coast of Denmark’s Bornholm island | Danish Defence Command
5. Is the local environment affected?
While the gas is still leaking, the immediate vicinity is an extremely dangerous place. Air that contains more than 5 percent methane can be flammable, said Rehder, so the risk of an explosion is real. Methane is not a toxic gas, but high concentrations can reduce the amount of available oxygen.
Shipping has been restricted from a 5 nautical mile radius around the leaks. This is because the methane in the water can affect buoyancy and rupture a vessel’s hull.
Marine animals near the escaping gas may be caught up and killed — especially poor swimmers such as jellyfish, said Rehder. But long-term effects on the local environment are not anticipated.
“It’s an unprecedented case,” he said. “But from our current understanding, I would think that the local effects on marine life in the area is rather small.”
6. What can be done?
Some have suggested that the remaining gas should be pumped out, but a German economy and climate ministry spokesperson on Wednesday said this wasn’t possible.
Once the pipeline has emptied, “it will fill up with water,” the spokesperson added. “At the moment, no one can go underwater — the danger is too great due to the escaping methane.”
Any repair would be the responsibility of pipeline owner Nord Stream AG, the Germans said.
7. Should they set it on fire?
Not only would it look impressive, setting the gas on fire would hugely slash the global warming impact of the leak. Methane is made of carbon and hydrogen, when burned it creates carbon dioxide, which is between 30 and 80 times less planet-warming per ton than methane. Flaring, as it is known, is a common method for reducing the impact of escaping methane.
From a pure climate perspective, setting the escaping methane on fire makes sense. “Yes, definitely — it will help,” said Piers Forster, director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate at the University of Leeds.
But there would be safety issues and potential environmental concerns, including air pollution from the combustion. “With land — in particular the inhabited and touristic island of Bornholm — nearby, you would not venture into this,” said Rehder.
No government has yet indicated that this is under consideration.
8. How long will it last and what next?
“We expect that gas will flow out of the pipes until the end of the week. After that, first of all, from the Danish side, we will try to get out and investigate what the cause is, and approach the pipes, so that we can have it investigated properly. We can do that when the gas leak has stopped,” Danish Energy Agency director Böttzauw told local media.
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