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Tag: Emmanuel Macron

  • France’s Macron wanted to leave his mark on Europe — he may have just ruined his legacy

    France’s Macron wanted to leave his mark on Europe — he may have just ruined his legacy

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    French President Emmanuel Macron on a campaign poster back in 2022.

    Sebastien Salom-gomis | Afp | Getty Images

    French President Emmanuel Macron’s failed snap election gamble is likely to take a large toll on his political ambitions and legacy, analysts say — and to weaken the power and influence he has sought to build in Europe in recent years.

    The final round of a snap parliamentary election in France last weekend — called by Macron after his center-right party was trounced in recent European Parliament elections — led to a surprise win for the left-wing New Popular Front alliance, thwarting an expected victory for the far-right National Rally party.

    Center-right Macron, who will remain in office until 2027, now faces the prospect of having to work with a coalition or technocratic government — and a prime minister — of a different political ilk, likely from the left-wing NFF. This is set to make governing France, the passing of legislation and reforms, potentially difficult.

    Not only did Macron’s high-stakes gamble with the snap poll not pay off, analysts note, but the French head of state has damaged his political standing and legacy in Europe, where he has sought a key leadership role.

    “In terms of his legacy, he will be in for a real political fight,” Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, told CNBC on Monday.

    “Macron remains the towering figure and kingmaker. It will be him who chooses the prime minister, it’ll be Macron that travels to Washington for the 75th [anniversary] NATO summit this week, but those who are suggesting that his gamble paid off [are wrong],” Fordham said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

    “Yes, he was able to keep the far right from first place but they’ve increased their seat share — and now he has to deal with this unruly left and this unruly right,” she added.

    “I’m afraid it probably does [weaken him on a global stage] at a time which is unfortunate for the cohesion of the European Union,” she added.

    Macron looked to be the EU’s leader

    Since taking office in 2017 after the departure of his former boss, then-Socialist President Francois Hollande, Macron has tried to position himself at the center of Europe’s political decision-making — particularly since the departure of the European Union’s most central leader, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in 2021.

    Macron has pushed for closer political and economic integration in the EU, promoting the concept of European sovereignty, economic security and competitiveness, as well as pushing for a more integrated and autonomous European defense strategy that advocates for a “true, European army.”

    He’s credited with creating the European Political Community, bringing leaders from across 50 states in the region to discuss shared challenges and to coordinate joint responses. Macron has also been a staunch supporter of Ukraine, putting pressure on a seemingly more reluctant Germany — and on fellow NATO members — when it came to the supply of Western weapons to Kyiv for it to fight back against Russia.

    He even pitched the possibility of French troops helping on the ground, albeit controversially, going beyond other allies’ pledges.

    French President Emmanuel Macron and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy react after signing an agreement, February 16, 2024 at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France. 

    Pool | Via Reuters

    Only time will tell what France’s political makeup will be in the coming months, but the country is likely to experience weeks of political wrangling and potential deadlock as the left-wing faction angles itself to lead a new government, and to place one of its own politicians as prime minister.

    Although the decision lies in Macron’s hands, he is likely to come under pressure to select a PM from the left-wing bloc, given it won the largest number of seats in the vote. He might even come under pressure to select Hollande, who ran for the NFP and stands as a strong candidate.

    For now, Macron has rejected his current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal’s resignation and on Monday asked him to stay in the post “to ensure the country’s stability.”

    Political instability in France, the euro zone’s second-largest economy after Germany, does not come at a good time in the global political cycle, Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Allianz, told CNBC on Monday. Subran stressed that it was vital that Macron was aligned with the future prime minister.

    “France is not that weak now, but it is not very good because we are in a state-craft situation with the U.S. and China and imagine what could happen in November if [Republican presidential candidate Donald] Trump gets reelected — we’re going to be tested and tested again and again,” Subran told CNBC’s Charlotte Reed in Paris.

    “I think it’s going to be really important that Macron secures the alignment with his prime minister before he says anything in Brussels or Strasbourg,“ Subran said. “He’ll have to make sure there’s a paper-thin divide between he and his prime minister when it comes to international issues like Russia, trade, industrial policies and working toward more flexible fiscal policies for France and for the other member countries in Europe.”

    When it comes to Macron’s position in Europe, Subran said it would now “be hard for him to lecture and to sow the seeds of grand projects for Europe when he’s going to be weak domestically.”

    “If [National Rally figurehead Marine] Le Pen races to power in 2027, it’s going to be a very tainted legacy,” he added.

    Mixed legacy

    While Macron is likely to be praised in some quarters for his pro-European, pro-business and pro-trade approach in office, his legacy at home may be more mixed after this snap election — a decision seen by many as a strategic miscalculation, brought about by Macron’s perceived lack of understanding of voter sentiment and, some say, his perceived arrogance.

    It’s a criticism he’s often faced, as well as accusations of failing to understand the everyday concerns of many French citizens, particularly those living outside the main urban centers.

    Mass protest movements such as the “Yellow Vest” action that emerged in 2018 were largely fueled by anger among large sectors of the population at rising fuel and living costs and economic inequality, and what they perceived to be an out-of-touch, elitist political establishment.

    A police vehicle sprays water cannon at protesters during an anti-government demonstration in Paris on January 26, 2019.

    NurPhoto | NurPhoto | Getty Images

    The rise of the far-right National Rally party is also symptomatic of voter concerns, rightly or wrongly, over immigration and what many supporters see as the erosion of French identity and culture.

    His decision in June to call a snap election after his centrist Renaissance party was trounced in the European Parliament elections, was widely seen as a high-stakes gamble. It hasn’t paid off, and France’s uncertain political outlook will likely perturb France’s European partners, one French political scientist told CNBC.

    “Imagine the EU and international partners and allies of France. What must they think of that [decision to call a snap election]?” Philippe Marlière, professor of French and European politics at University College London, said ahead of the final round of the election on Sunday.

    “They must think, ‘what an amateur. What a mistake. What a mess.’ And it is a mess, which is now affecting us all. Because if France isn’t able to be a reliable partner in the EU when it comes to big issues of the world … people will not forget that it was Macron who created the situation in the first place.”

    French President Emmanuel Macron reviews troops that will take part in the Bastille Day parade, July 2, 2024 in Paris, France. 

    Aurelien Morissard | Via Reuters

    He told CNBC that, in France, most people believed that Macron had, in plain English, brought about a big political mess.

    “Everyone in France today, absolutely everyone — I’m yet to hear or meet someone who says it was a great idea — everyone says it’s a major cock-up. It was an unnecessary gamble which badly, very badly, backfired. He didn’t have an absolute majority before the dissolution [of parliament, the National Assembly] but his party was the main party in the National Assembly … so why did he have to dissolve parliament? Only he knows why he did that.”

    “On a scale of political blunders. I would probably give it a 10 out of 10,” Marlière said.

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  • Left-wing surge foils far right but French election ends in deadlock

    Left-wing surge foils far right but French election ends in deadlock

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    (CNN) — A left-wing alliance has won the most seats in the French parliament after tactical voting in Sunday’s second round election thwarted Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, but France will be left in political limbo after no party came close to winning an absolute majority.

    In a surprise result, the New Popular Front (NFP) – a cluster of several parties ranging from the far-left France Unbowed party to the more moderate Socialists and the Ecologists – won 182 seats in the National Assembly, making it the largest group but short of the 289 required for an absolute majority, according to the French Interior Ministry.

    President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance, which had slumped to a dismal third in the first round of voting last Sunday, mounted a strong recovery to win 163 seats. Despite leading after the first round of votes, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party and its allies won 143 seats.

    The RN’s strong showing in the first round stirred fears that France could be on the cusp of electing its first far-right government since the collaborationist Vichy regime of World War II. But Sunday’s results come as a huge upset and show French voters’ overwhelming desire to keep the far right from gaining power – even at the cost of a hung parliament.

    After the first round, an unprecedented number of seats – over 300 – went to a three-way runoff between Ensemble, the NFP and the RN. By Tuesday, more than 200 centrist and left-wing candidates withdrew from the second round, in a bid to avoid splitting the vote.

    Cheers rang out on the streets of Paris as the projection was published. Speaking to a crowd of his ecstatic supporters near Stalingrad square, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the firebrand leader of France Unbowed, said the results came as a “huge relief for the overwhelming majority of people in our country.”

    “Our people have clearly rejected the worst-case scenario,” Mélenchon said. “A magnificent surge of civic mobilization has taken hold!”

    Gabriel Attal, Macron’s protege, announced he would resign as prime minister Monday morning. He seemed to take a swipe at Macron’s decision to call the snap vote, saying he “didn’t choose” for France’s parliament to be dissolved.

    Elsewhere in Paris, the buoyant atmosphere at a RN campaign event in Bois de Vincennes took a nosedive an hour before the polls closed. After the projection was announced, Jordan Bardella, the party’s 28-year-old leader, said France had been thrown into “uncertainty and instability.”

    Handpicked as leader by Marine Le Pen in an effort to purge the party of its racist and antisemitic roots, Bardella had taken the party closer to the gates of power than ever before. Visibly disappointed by the results, he slammed the NFP as an “alliance of dishonor.”

    “As from tomorrow, our deputies will take up their places to make sure we counter the migration policies and other policies of the far left. We will not enter into any kind of coalition or compromise, we will be the side of the French people,” he said.

    A hastily assembled coalition

    In a brief statement, the Elysee said Macron is awaiting the full results of all 577 constituencies “before taking the necessary decisions.”

    “In his role as guarantor of our institutions, the president will ensure that the sovereign choice of the French people is respected,” it said.

    After parliamentary elections, the French president appoints a prime minister from the party that won the most seats. Ordinarily, this means a candidate from the president’s own party. However, Sunday’s results mean Macron faces the prospect of having to appoint a figure from the left-wing coalition, in a rare arrangement known as a “cohabitation.”

    Speaking to supporters near Stalingrad square, Mélenchon said Macron “has the duty to call the New Popular Front to govern.”

    But it is not clear from which party within the coalition that Macron will appoint a prime minister. France Unbowed won 74 seats, making it the largest single party within the NFP, ahead of the Socialists with 59.

    But Macron and his allies had repeatedly stressed that they would refuse to enter into coalition with Mélenchon. Speaking after last Sunday’s first round, outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal – Macron’s protege, said France Unbowed was preventing the formation of a “credible alternative” to the far right.

    The NFP formed less than a month ago, after Macron called the snap vote following his party’s disastrous loss to the RN in last month’s European Parliament election.

    The capacious – and potentially fractious – coalition chose its name in an attempt to resurrect the original Popular Front that blocked the far right from gaining power in 1936. Sunday’s results mean the NFP has managed to do this again.

    It campaigned on a platform to raise the minimum monthly wage to 1,600 euros (more than $1,700), to cap the price of essential foods, electricity, fuel and gas, and to scrap Macron’s deeply unpopular pension reform, which raised the French retirement age – already one of the lowest in the Western world – from 62 to 64.

    A mess of Macron’s making?

    Sunday’s vote represents a victory for the French “cordon sanitaire,” the principle that mainstream parties must unite to block the far right from taking office.

    But the RN’s success should not be underestimated. In the 2017 elections, when Macron swept to power, the RN won just eight seats. In 2022, it surged to 89 seats. In Sunday’s vote, it won 125 – making it the largest individual party in parliament.

    While the risk of a far-right government has been avoided for now, these elections have plunged France into political uncertainty. Macron called the election three years earlier than necessary, just minutes after his party was trounced by the far right in the EU election.

    Although EU election results need have no bearing on domestic politics, Macron said he could not ignore the message sent to him by voters and wanted to clarify the situation.

    But Sunday’s results may further muddy the French political picture. Unable to call a new election for at least another year, and with three years left on his presidential term, Macron looks set to preside over an unruly parliament, as problems mount at home and abroad.

    Édouard Philippe, France’s former prime minister and an ally of Macron, said Macron’s gamble had further complicated the situation.

    “The truth is that none of the political blocs in the assembly has a majority on its own to govern. The dissolution of the assembly, which was intended as a clarification, has instead led to great vagueness,” he said Sunday evening.

    “The central political forces therefore have a responsibility to stay. They must, without compromise, promote the creation of an agreement that will stabilize the political situation.”

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  • The Latest | France votes in pivotal runoff elections that could propel the far right to power

    The Latest | France votes in pivotal runoff elections that could propel the far right to power

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    France is seeing high turnout Sunday in pivotal runoff elections that could hand a historic victory to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and its nationalistic, anti-immigrant vision — or produce a hung parliament and years of political deadlock.

    Sunday’s snap elections in this nuclear-armed nation have potential impact on the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy and Europe’s economic stability. And they’re almost certain to undercut President Emmanuel Macron for the remaining three years of his presidency. France could have its first far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II if the National Rally wins an absolute majority and its 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella becomes prime minister.

    Racism and antisemitism have marred the electoral campaign, along with Russian cybercampaigns, and more than 50 candidates reported being physically attacked — unusual for France. The government is deploying 30,000 police on voting day.

    Voting ends at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT) in mainland France. Initial polling projections are expected Sunday night, with early official results expected late Sunday and early Monday.

    Here’s the latest:

    Macron meets with leaders from his alliance before polls close

    French President Emmanuel Macron is meeting with leaders from his weakened majority alliance before polls close in Sunday’s second round of legislative elections. Among those present is Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, according to an aide to the president who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door meeting.

    Many of Macron’s centrist political allies are furious at his decision to call the surprise elections just three weeks after the far-right National Rally trounced his party in European elections. They fear the centrist coalition will be wiped out in favor of the far right and left.

    The first-round vote on June 30 saw major gains for the National Rally, potentially putting the far right in a position to govern France for the first time since World War II. Macron risks being forced to share power with a prime minister opposed to his pro-business, pro-European Union policies.

    Some French youth are astonished by support for the far right

    Some French youth are astonished by the number of people supporting the far-right National Rally in legislative elections.

    Nawel Marrouchi is 15 and wishes she was old enough to vote. “As a binational, I am directly concerned,” the French-Moroccan said in Paris. She fears racism will gain even more ground: “In my class, one guy said once that foreigners shouldn’t get housing. But my father was an immigrant. They should go to these countries to understand why they are coming here.”

    Jessica Saada is 31 and says “I think young people have not woken up yet. They don’t realize.” She is baffled by the party’s past and present positions on issues like wearing a headscarf in public: “It’s just going to cause problems and bring more hate.”

    Even if the anti-immigration party doesn’t win a majority in parliament, she believes the damage is done.

    With three hours before polls close, the turnout is 59.71%

    With three hours to go before polls close in France’s second round of high-stakes legislative elections, the latest figure on the turnout is 59.71%. It’s the highest turnout since 1981 at this time in the voting day.

    The overall turnout is on track to be the highest in four decades. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time.

    A pro-independence candidate in New Caledonia wins a parliament seat

    In the restive French Pacific territory of New Caledonia, a pro-independence Indigenous Kanak candidate has won a seat in France’s parliament over a loyalist candidate in the second round of voting.

    Emmanuel Tjibaou is a political novice and a son of a well-known Kanak independence leader, Jean-Marie Tjibaou, who was assassinated in 1989. He is the first pro-independence candidate to win a seat in the National Assembly since 1986.

    Indigenous Kanaks have long sought to break free from France, which took the archipelago in 1853. Polls closed earlier in New Caledonia because of a curfew imposed in response to the violence that flared last month and left nine people dead. There was anger over an attempt by the government of President Emmanuel Macron to amend the French Constitution and change voting lists, which Indigenous Kanaks feared would further marginalize them.

    Right-wing candidate and French loyalist Nicolas Metzdorf has won New Caledonia’s second parliament seat.

    Macron votes

    French President Emmanuel Macron voted in high-stakes legislative elections Sunday that could force him to share power with the rising far right.

    Macron called the surprise vote after the anti-immigration, nationalist National Rally made huge gains in the June 9 European elections, taking a huge gamble that French voters would block the far-right party as they always have in the past.

    But the National Rally instead won a larger share than ever in the first round on June 30, and its leader Marine Le Pen called on voters to give the party an absolute majority in the second round.

    Sunday’s vote determines which party controls the National Assembly and who will be prime minister. If no party wins an absolute majority, forming a government comes only after extensive negotiations.

    Early turnout reported

    As of noon local time, turnout was at 26.63%, according to France’s interior ministry. That’s slightly higher than the 25.90% reported at the same time during the first round of voting last Sunday.

    Parisians worry about future after casting ballots

    Voters at a Paris polling station were acutely aware of the elections’ far-reaching consequences for France and beyond.

    “The individual freedoms, tolerance and respect for others is what at stake today,” said Thomas Bertrand, a 45-year-old voter who works in advertising. He voted at a school where, as at all French schools, the national motto “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity” was displayed prominently.

    Pierre Lubin, a 45-year-old business manager, was worried about whether the elections would produce an effective government.

    “This is a concern for us,” Lubin said. “Will it be a technical government or a coalition government made up of (different) political forces?”

    Even with the outcome still in doubt, Valerie Dodeman, a 55-year-old legal expert, said she is pessimistic about the future of France.

    “No matter what happens, I think this election will leave people disgruntled on all sides,” Dodeman said.

    Prime minister casts ballot in Paris suburb

    Prime Minister Gabriel Attal cast his ballot in the Paris suburb of Vanves Sunday morning.

    Macron is expected to vote later in the seaside town of La Touquet, while Le Pen is not voting after winning her district in northern France outright last week. Across France, 76 candidates secured seats in the first round, including 39 from her National Rally, 32 from the leftist New Popular Front alliance, and two from Macron’s centrist list.

    Polls open in mainland France for the second round of high-stakes legislative elections

    Voting opened Sunday in mainland France for the second round of high-stake legislative elections that have already seen the largest gains ever for the country’s far-right National Rally party.

    French President Emmanuel Macron took a huge gamble in dissolving parliament and calling for the elections after his centrists were trounced in European elections on June 9. The first round on June 30 saw the largest gains ever for the anti-immigration, nationalist National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen. Sunday’s vote determines which party controls the National Assembly and who will be prime minister.

    If support is further eroded for Macron’s weak centrist majority, he will be forced to share power with parties opposed to most of his pro-business, pro-European Union policies.

    The second-round voting began Saturday in France’s overseas territories from the South Pacific to the Caribbean, Indian Ocean and North Atlantic. The elections wrap up Sunday at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT) in mainland France. Initial polling projections are expected Sunday night, with early official results expected late Sunday and early Monday.

    Candidates make hurried deals to try to stop far-right National Rally from leading government

    Opposition parties made hurried deals ahead of Sunday’s second round of voting to try to block a landslide victory for Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally in the legislative elections, as she said her party would lead the government only if it won an absolute majority — or close to it.

    An unprecedented number of candidates who qualified for Round 2 from the left-wing alliance of the New Popular Front and from President Emmanuel Macron’s weakened centrists have stepped aside to favor the candidate most likely to win against a National Rally opponent.

    According to a count by French newspaper Le Monde, some 218 candidates who were supposed to compete in the second round have pulled out. Of those, 130 were on the left, and 82 came from the Macron-led centrist alliance Ensemble.

    Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

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  • France is voting in pivotal elections that could see a historic far-right win or a hung parliament

    France is voting in pivotal elections that could see a historic far-right win or a hung parliament

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    Voting has begun in mainland France on Sunday in pivotal runoff elections that could hand a historic victory to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and its inward-looking, anti-immigrant vision — or produce a hung parliament and political deadlock.

    French President Emmanuel Macron took a huge gamble in dissolving parliament and calling for the elections after his centrists were trounced in European elections on June 9.

    The snap elections in this nuclear-armed nation will influence the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy and Europe’s economic stability, and they’re almost certain to undercut President Emmanuel Macron for the remaining three years of his presidency.

    The first round on June 30 saw the largest gains ever for the anti-immigration, nationalist National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen.

    France Election
    A woman casts her ballot in the second round of the legislative elections, Sunday, July 7, 2024, in Strasbourg, eastern France.

    Jean-Francois Badias / AP


    A bit over 49 million people are registered to vote in the elections, which will determine which party controls the 577-member National Assembly, France’s influential lower house of parliament, and who will be prime minister. If support is further eroded for Macron’s weak centrist majority, he will be forced to share power with parties opposed to most of his pro-business, pro-European Union policies.

    Voters at a Paris polling station were acutely aware of the far-reaching consequences for France and beyond.

    “The individual freedoms, tolerance and respect for others is what at stake today,” said Thomas Bertrand, a 45-year-old voter who works in advertising.

    Racism and antisemitism have marred the electoral campaign, along with Russian cybercampaigns, and more than 50 candidates reported being physically attacked — highly unusual for France. The government is deploying 30,000 police on voting day.

    The heightened tensions come while France is celebrating a very special summer: Paris is about to host exceptionally ambitious Olympic Games, the national soccer team reached the semifinal of the Euro 2024 championship, and the Tour de France is racing around the country alongside the Olympic torch.

    France Election
    A voter stands in the polling booth during the second round of the legislative elections in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France, on Sunday, July 7, 2024.

    Mohammed Badra / AP


    As of noon local time, turnout was at 26.63%, according to France’s interior ministry, slightly higher than the 25.90% reported at the same time during the first round last Sunday.

    During the first round of voting last Sunday, the nearly 67% turnout was the highest since 1997, ending nearly three decades of deepening voter apathy for legislative elections and, for a growing number of French people, politics in general.

    Prime Minister Gabriel Attal cast his ballot in the Paris suburb of Vanves Sunday morning.

    Macron is expected to vote later Sunday morning in the seaside town of La Touquet. Le Pen is not voting, because her district in northern France is not holding a second round after she won the seat outright last week. Across France, 76 other candidates secured seats in the first round, including 39 from her National Rally and 32 from the leftist New Popular Front alliance. Two candidates from Macron’s centrists list also won their seats in the first round.

    The elections wrap up Sunday at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT) in mainland France and on the island of Corsica. Initial polling projections are expected Sunday night, with early official results expected late Sunday and early Monday.

    France Election
    A voter casts his ballot during the second round of the legislative elections, in Lyon, central France, on Sunday, July 7, 2024.

    Laurent Cipriani / AP


    Voters residing in the Americas and in France’s overseas territories of Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, Saint-Barthélemy, Saint-Martin, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyana and French Polynesia voted on Saturday.

    The elections could leave France with its first far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II if the National Rally wins an absolute majority and its 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella becomes prime minister. The party came out on top in the previous week’s first-round voting, followed by a coalition of center-left, hard-left and Green parties, and Macron’s centrist alliance.

    Pierre Lubin, a 45-year-old business manager, was worried about whether the elections would produce an effective government.

    “This is a concern for us,” Lubin said. “Will it be a technical government or a coalition government made up of (various) political forces?”

    The outcome remains highly uncertain. Polls between the two rounds suggest that the National Rally may win the most seats in the 577-seat National Assembly but fall short of the 289 seats needed for a majority. That would still make history, if a party with historic links to xenophobia and downplaying the Holocaust, and long seen as a pariah, becomes France’s biggest political force.

    If it wins the majority, Macron would be forced to share power with a prime minister who deeply disagrees with the president’s domestic and foreign policies, in an awkward arrangement known in France as “cohabitation.”

    Another possibility is that no party has a majority, resulting in a hung parliament. That could prompt Macron to pursue coalition negotiations with the center-left or name a technocratic government with no political affiliations.

    No matter what happens, Macron’s centrist camp will be forced to share power. Many of his alliances’ candidates lost in the first round or withdrew, meaning it doesn’t have enough people running to come anywhere close to the majority he had in 2017 when he was was first elected president, or the plurality he got in the 2022 legislative vote.

    Both would be unprecedented for modern France, and make it more difficult for the European Union’s No. 2 economy to make bold decisions on arming Ukraine, reforming labor laws or reducing its huge deficit. Financial markets have been jittery since Macron surprised even his closest allies in June by announcing snap elections after the National Rally won the most seats for France in European Parliament elections.


    Why is the far-right gaining momentum in France?

    05:20

    Regardless of what happens, Macron said he won’t step down and will stay president until his term ends in 2027.

    Many French voters, especially in small towns and rural areas, are frustrated with low incomes and a Paris political leadership seen as elitist and unconcerned with workers’ day-to-day struggles. National Rally has connected with those voters, often by blaming immigration for France’s problems, and has built up broad and deep support over the past decade.

    Le Pen has softened many of the party’s positions — she no longer calls for quitting NATO and the EU — to make it more electable. But the party’s core far-right values remain. It wants a referendum on whether being born in France is enough to merit citizenship, to curb the rights of dual citizens, and to give police more freedom to use weapons.

    With the uncertain outcome looming over the high-stakes elections, Valerie Dodeman, a 55-year-old legal expert said she is pessimistic about the future of France.

    “No matter what happens, I think this election will leave people disgruntled on all sides,” Dodeman said.

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  • ‘A kind of civil war’: Divided France on alert for unrest amid political earthquake

    ‘A kind of civil war’: Divided France on alert for unrest amid political earthquake

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    Demonstrators take part in a rally against the far right following the announcement of the results of the first round of the French parliamentary elections at Place de la Republique in Paris on June 30, 2024.

    Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    “We’re scared of what might happen,” Amel, 34, told CNBC ahead of the final round of voting in France’s snap election this weekend.

    The vote is being closely watched by all quarters of French society to see if the nationalist, anti-immigration National Rally (RN) builds on its initial win in the first round of voting, or whether centrist and leftwing parties have been able to thwart the party’s chances of entering government.

    “It’s a very, very tense time. And it’s the first time that the far right is winning at the first turn [the first round of the ballot]. So it’s a very big deal,” Amel, a therapist who said she will vote for the leftwing New Popular Front, added.

    “We are very anxious and we are trying to get everyone to vote, trying to tell people who don’t vote to go and vote, and to try to convince people who vote for the extreme right that they are not a good answer [to France’s problems].”

    France’s far-right RN rejects the “extremist” label, saying it stands up for French values, culture and citizens at a time when many are fed up with France’s political establishment that’s been led by President Emmanuel Macron since 2017.

    But RN’s opponents and critics warn France is on the brink of a political catastrophe if an overtly anti-immigration, nationalist and euroskeptic party wins a majority in this snap election called by Macron after his party lost heavily against the hard-right in European Parliament elections in June. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has said French voters now have a “moral duty” to halt the party’s advance.

    For young, left-leaning voters like Amel, RN’s surge in voter polls, and the fact it won the most votes in the first round of the election last weekend, are worrying developments that make them fear for France’s societal cohesion.

    “I am worried about the country’s future. I think it’s getting worse and worse,” Amel, who preferred to only give her first name due to the sensitive nature of the situation, said. “It’s going be like a kind of civil war. I hope it will not reach that, but people will just not mix anymore and will be scared of each other. And this is very scary.”

    The snap election has thrown the country’s political polarization into sharp relief as polls ahead of the final round of voting on Sunday imply a deeply divided nation.

    The first round of the election resulted in the far-right RN winning 33% of the vote, with the leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) garnering 28% and the coalition of parties supporting Macron (Ensemble, or Together) winning 20% of the vote.

    Left wing supporters react as the results of the first round of French parliamentary elections are announced in Nantes, western France on June 30, 2024. 

    Sebastien Salom-gomis | Afp | Getty Images

    Since the results of the first ballot, parties on the center-right and left have gone all-out to prevent RN’s advance in the second ballot, aiming to prevent a parliamentary majority for the party at all costs. Joining forces in a so-called “Republican Front,” centrists and leftwing parties have withdrawn candidates in many constituencies where one of their candidates was better placed to beat the RN.

    By offering voters a starker choice and fewer options, the anti far-right front hopes that the electorate will vote for the non-RN candidate. Whether it will work remains to be seen and analysts point out that French voters might not take kindly to being directed how to vote, or who to vote for.

    The elections are a ‘mess’

    The final result on Sunday evening — the outcome of a snap election Macron did not need to call — will show just how hard it could be to find a consensus in national politics and government going forward.

    How the nation will react to the result is also uncertain. France is no stranger to civil unrest given the widespread “Yellow Vest” anti-government movement of recent years, and street protests since the first round of voting on June 30.

    France’s Interior Ministry appears to be preparing for more trouble after Sunday’s poll, reportedly ready to deploy around 30,000 officers across France on Sunday night amid fears of violence after polls close. Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin is reported to have said 5,000 police would be on duty in Paris and its surrounding areas to “ensure that the radical right and radical left do not take advantage of the situation to cause mayhem.”

    France’s police force has, at times, been accused of being heavy-handed with demonstrators during previous periods of unrest, firing water cannon and tear gas at “yellow vest” demonstrators in 2019.

    Tension rises as demonstrators gather in Place de la Republique, to protest against the rising right-wing movement after the Rassemblement National’s victory in the first round of early general elections in Paris, France on June 30, 2024.

    Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

    A member of the gendarmerie, France’s military force in charge of law enforcement and public order, told CNBC that the “French elections are a mess” and that the “public divide has rarely been so flagrant in France.”

    “People’s opinions are becoming more and more divided and this is felt in everyday life,” the gendarme, who asked to remain anonymous due to the nature of his job, told CNBC.

    The officer — a father of three who’s in his 40s, and a right-leaning voter — said the polarization in French society was “very worrying, but unfortunately normal with the ‘diversity’ of our society.”

    “More and more people with different values and educations are being forced to co-exist, and this clearly doesn’t work,” the officer, who works in Bordeaux in southwestern France, said.

    “I am worried about the country’s future, because we are too generous to people who aren’t willing to integrate and contribute to our society, this can not last.”

    The police officer said he expected civil unrest after the vote, whichever party gained the most votes.

    “There will be civil unrest whoever is elected, this is France and the people speak their mind.”

    Civil unrest possible

    Political experts agree that the current febrile atmosphere of French politics, and antagonism between the main bodies of voters, are the ingredients for further civil unrest.

    “You’ve got here all the recipe for a super-polarized political scene and that, of course, translates into civil society as a whole,” Philippe Marlière, professor of French and European politics at University College London, told CNBC.

    “If you’ve got only 33-34% of people voting for the far-right it means the rest is wary of that, or completely opposed to it, so that will translate on every level of politics — institutional politics, party politics, the National Assembly, but also in society. You will have a very polarized society in which younger people, ethnic minorities, women, and in particular feminists, would be very worried,” he said.

    Marlière did not discount the possibility of violence on the streets if a far-right party was elected to government. “We’re not there yet. But if there are very unpopular, very antagonizing and very hostile policies to some groups, there will be demonstrations on a scale that you have unrest in the street,” he said.

    Unknown entity

    Like other hard-right parties in Europe, the National Rally has tapped into voter insecurities regarding crime, immigration, national identity and economic insecurity. RN’s 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella has told voters he will “restore order,” curb immigration and tackle delinquency but he and party figurehead Marine Le Pen have rowed back on some of their more strident promises and rhetoric, back-pedaling over taking France out of NATO, for example, and moderating the party’s traditionally pro-Russian stance.

    Bardella said he would still support the sending of arms to Ukraine but not the deployment of ground troops, as Macron suggested was a possibility.

    Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella at the final rally before the June 9 European Parliament election, held at Le Dôme de Paris – Palais des Sports, on June 2, 2024.

    Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    It’s uncertain how many of National Rally’s policies would be enacted even if the party made it into government. The “Republican Front” also appears confident ahead of the second round of voting that its strategy to hurt the RN’s vote share is working.

    An opinion poll published by Ifop on July 3 suggested voters might tend toward a centrist pro-Macron or leftwing candidate rather than the RN candidate if that is the choice they are presented with on the ballot paper on Sunday. If the choice was between a far-left and far-right candidate, however, the picture was more nuanced, showing a split vote.

    Ipsos: Voters never intended to give Rassemblement National absolute majority in first round elections

    Analysts predict that RN is less likely to be able to achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, but is still likely to gather the most votes, creating a hung parliament scenario and headache for Macron and uncertainty for France’s political and economic outlook.

    “The political landscape is in turmoil and can’t really work any longer, at least not by the old rules,” Ipsos analyst Mathieu Doiret told CNBC Thursday.

    “We are in a situation so far from our traditions and political habitus that it’s very difficult to adapt to this new situation for every stakeholder.”

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  • Rishi Sunak’s campaign to stay British PM showed his lack of political touch

    Rishi Sunak’s campaign to stay British PM showed his lack of political touch

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    LONDON – Rishi Sunak’s campaign to remain Britain’s prime minister showed a lack of political touch.

    The Conservative Party’s problems were grave before Friday’s resounding election defeat but missteps by Britain’s richest prime minister contributed to its defeat.

    Predecessors such as Tony Blair and Boris Johnson were more politically astute and able to connect with voters. As for Sunak, he didn’t have to call the election until Jan. 2025. He defied political advice by doing so in May — with Conservative support dwindling steadily amid an economic slump, ethics scandals and a revolving door of leaders over the last two years — and announced the July 4 date in the pouring rain.

    What’s more, the Conservative Party didn’t appear ready for the campaign compared with Labour, and voters haven’t really felt the improvement in Britain’s economy yet.

    “I have heard your anger, your disappointment, and I take responsibility for this loss,” Sunak said in his final speech as prime minister outside the residence at 10 Downing Street.

    Arguably, Sunak’s biggest blunder — one that prompted him to apologize and which many analysts think was the final death knell of the Conservative Party’s campaign — was his decision to leave early from the 80-year D-day commemorations in northern France on June 6.

    Critics said the decision to skip the international event that closed the commemorations showed disrespect to the veterans and diminished the U.K.’s international standing. Other world leaders including President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy all were present. As was Keir Starmer, the U.K.’s new prime minister.

    Born in 1980 in Southampton on England’s south coast to parents of Indian descent, Sunak became Britain’s first leader of color and the first Hindu to become prime minister. At 42, he was Britain’s youngest leader for more than 200 years.

    A former hedge fund manager at Goldman Sachs who married into a billionaire Indian family, Sunak rose rapidly within Conservative ranks. Now 44, he become Treasury chief on the eve of the coronavirus pandemic. Within weeks, he had to unveil the biggest economic support package of any Chancellor of the Exchequer outside wartime, a package that many saw as saving millions of jobs.

    Long a low-tax, small-state politician despite the high-spending nature of that package, Sunak had a record of idolizing former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Smooth, confident and at ease with the march of modern technology, Sunak was dubbed “Dishy Rishi” and quickly became one of the most trusted and popular faces within Johnson’s administration during the rigors of the pandemic.

    Johnson was forced to quit in the summer of 2022 after being adjudged to have lied to Parliament over breaches of coronavirus lockdowns at his offices in Downing Street. As if that wasn’t bad enough, trust in the Conservatives tanked further when his successor Liz Truss backed a package of unfunded tax cuts that roiled financial markets and sent borrowing costs surging, particularly for homeowners already struggling with the most acute of cost of living crisis in decades. Her premiership was the shortest in the history of the U.K.

    When Sunak replaced Truss, he pitched himself as a stable pair of hands. He constantly reminded voters that he had warned Conservative Party members about the recklessness of Truss’s economic plan when he challenged her to succeed Johnson. The day he replaced Truss after her traumatic 49-day premiership in Oct. 2022, the Conservatives were trailing Labour by around 30 percentage points.

    As Treasury chief, Sunak was lauded for rolling out his COVID-19 job retention package that arguably saved millions of jobs. But that came at a cost, bringing the country’s tax burden to its highest level since the 1940s.

    In his 21 months as prime minister, Sunak struggled to keep a lid on bitter divisions within his Conservative Party. One side wanted him to be much tougher on immigration and bolder in cutting taxes, while another urged him to move more to the center of politics, the space where, historically, British elections are won.

    In his concession speech, Sunak said he would serve a full term in parliament until 2029, and that he would stay on as leader until the Conservative Party has elected a successor.

    “It is important that, after 14 years in government, the Conservative Party rebuilds, but also that it takes up its crucial role in opposition professionally and effectively,” he said,

    Many think he may be tempted to return to the U.S. in the years to come, perhaps to pursue his interest in artificial technology.

    After his school years at Winchester College, one of Britain’s most expensive boarding schools, Sunak went to Oxford University to study politics, philosophy and economics — the degree of choice for future prime ministers. He then got an MBA at Stanford University, which proved to be a launchpad for his subsequent career as a hedge fund manager at Goldman Sachs in the U.S.

    There, he met his wife, Akshata Murty, the daughter of the billionaire founder of Indian tech giant Infosys. They have two daughters. The couple are the wealthiest inhabitants yet of No. 10 Downing Street, according to the Sunday Times’ 2024 Rich List, with an estimated fortune of 651 million pounds ($815 million). They’re even richer than King Charles III, a level of wealth that many said left him out of touch with the daily problems of most people.

    With his fortune secure, Sunak was elected to Parliament for the safe Tory seat of Richmond in Yorkshire in 2015. In Britain’s 2016 Brexit referendum, he supported leaving the European Union, a “leave” that came unexpectedly and that many Britons today regret.

    Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

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  • Amid election nerves French city traders rush to secure funding as they foresee the worst blow to bonds

    Amid election nerves French city traders rush to secure funding as they foresee the worst blow to bonds

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    The worst bond rout since the sovereign debt crisis. Companies rushing to lock in funding before a potential capital drought. An almost $200 billion hit to stocks.

    French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision earlier this month to meet the far-right’s gains across Europe with a snap poll at home has upended markets across the region, triggering a sharp repricing that’s put billions of euros in flux.

    On Sunday, investors will find out if the selloff has room to run. 

    The stakes are high. France’s fiscal probity is in doubt with investors shorting the nation’s bonds even before Macron’s surprise decision, and the region’s allure as a stable and relatively volatility-free alternative to US markets has taken a blow.

    David Zahn, head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton, summed it up: The French spread over German bonds could “easily” blow through 100 basis points from around 80 now — unthinkable less than a month ago.

    “There is nothing to win in this market,” said Stephane Deo, a senior portfolio manager at Eleva Capital SAS, who has cut all his fund’s exposure to France. 

    Traders are going into the parliamentary election at the weekend holding the most futures contracts on French bonds in at least a year, a sign they’re betting yields will go higher. Stock pickers are hedging losses with the most put options tied to Europe’s main blue-chip benchmark in two years. And currency traders are piling into derivatives that shield them from a drop in the euro at the fastest pace in 15 months.

    The main fear for markets of all stripes is that the new French government drives the country deeper into debt. France’s deficit already exceeds what’s allowed under European Union rules and a strong showing by either the right or the left would be viewed as increasing the chances that the government loosens the purse strings further. 

    S&P Global Ratings downgraded the country’s credit score at the end of May and the International Monetary Fund predicts its deficit will remain well above the EU’s 3% limit for years to come. 

    Pain for bonds can translate into pain for banks if they’re eventually forced to swoop in and buy up the notes should foreigners head for the exits. With French lenders already leading losses among euro-area banks in June, at that point the contagion could spiral beyond France’s borders, driving up borrowing costs in the EU’s weaker members.

    Memories of the region’s debt crisis are on investors’ minds, an Allianz Global Investors portfolio manager said recently, and ripples from France could once more bring the entire euro project into question.

    The last time Le Pen’s far-right party came close to clinching power was in the 2017 presidential election, promising voters a referendum on whether the country should leave the euro. While she’s tempered her stance since, her party’s policies have investors on edge.

    ‘Frexit’ Risk

    A gauge based on credit default swaps that indicates the likelihood of France leaving the EU has almost doubled since the European elections to near the highest since 2017. 

    The issue is “whether people want to go down the path of ruminating about redenomination,” said Erik Weisman, portfolio manager and chief economist at MFS Investment Management. “I think that would be unwarranted almost regardless of the outcome. But the market may have other ideas.”

    Political ructions in France are already casting a shadow over the broader region. 

    Weakness in French sovereign bonds has spilled over to Italy — Europe’s original poster child for fiscal profligacy. There, the spread to Germany has widened to the highest since February. 

    In credit markets, the risk premium French companies pay to borrow compared to their euro-area peers has jumped to the highest since the run-up to the 2017 election. Before the snap vote was called, that cost had been consistently lower.

    And trades in derivative markets that pay out if euro-area bank stocks decline have hit the highest since 2016.

    Banks are seen as vulnerable to concern about a nation’s political future through their holdings of government debt and their exposure to weak economic decisions. While sovereign bonds accounted for just 2.4% of French banks’ total assets as of the first quarter, that number could creep up if lenders step in to buy as foreign investors flee.

    ‘Existential Issue’

    “Market access is an existential issue for banks,” said Gordon Shannon, portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management. “Periods of market stress curtail the ability to raise fresh capital.”

    To be sure, volatility triggered by elections can dissipate fast, and investors predict Le Pen’s party — if it does win the most seats — will tread carefully to boost her chances for the 2027 presidential vote. France’s CAC 40 stock benchmark has done well after most legislative elections in the past 30 years.

    Surveys indicate it’s unlikely any one party will have an absolute majority after the voting, and Former French President Francois Hollande indicated this week that he’d be ready to build a new coalition to govern if elections deliver a hung parliament.

    Karen Ward, chief market strategist for EMEA at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, sees the weakness in French banks as a buying opportunity. The next French government will be mindful of the chaos triggered by unfunded tax cuts proposed by UK prime minister Liz Truss in 2022.

    “In a couple of months’ time we will not be talking about French politics at all,” she said. “This is not 2011-2012, none of these more populous parties are advocating leaving the euro. This is about migration, which is a thread we are seeing in politics across the west.”

    Yet the sense of angst is palpable. The spike in political risk has prompted several portfolio managers to abandon the practice of buying European bonds in anticipation of a catch-up with valuations in US debt.

    That chimes with the shift in equity-market sentiment, where uncertainty before Sunday’s vote has derailed the bull case for Europe, pushing investors to trim exposure and rebalance their positioning toward US assets. 

    And rates traders are expecting the nation’s borrowing costs to remain high for the foreseeable future.

    “The French spread won’t go back to its pre-election level anytime soon,” said Sonia Renoult, a rates strategist at ABN Amro. “The question is how quickly it pulls back and whether the bond market or institutions need to force it to do so.”

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    Alice Gledhill, Michael Msika, Tasos Vossos, Bloomberg

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  • Macron’s snap election gamble in France resurfaces an old criticism — that he’s arrogant and obnoxious

    Macron’s snap election gamble in France resurfaces an old criticism — that he’s arrogant and obnoxious

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    French President Emmanuel Macron attends a trilateral meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (not seen) at the Elysee Palace in Paris as part of the Chinese president’s two-day state visit in France, May 6, 2024.

    Gonzalo Fuentes | Reuters

    French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap election after the far-right National Rally party won more than double the votes of his centrist alliance has been greeted with surprise, dismay and more than a little bewilderment.

    It has also resurfaced long-standing criticism of Macron, particularly from political commentators and opponents, who see the president as arrogant, ego-driven and, perhaps more worryingly in their eyes, a leader willing to put France’s stability on the line in what’s being seen as a “huge political gamble.”

    For his part, Macron said that holding a snap election would provide clarity after the European Parliament elections, in which the NR party won around 31% of the vote, more than double the 14.6% for the centrist, pro-European alliance that included Macron’s Renaissance Party.

    In a national address Sunday evening as he announced his decision to dissolve parliament, Macron told the electorate that he had “heard” their concerns and would “not leave them unanswered … France needs a clear majority to act in serenity and harmony,” he added. The first round of voting will take place on June 30, with a second to be held on July 7.

    Analysts said Macron’s decision was likely a tactical gamble, with the president hopeful that 1) the European parliamentary election drubbing was the result of a protest vote rather than deeper dissatisfaction with his leadership and 2) that the prospect of a far-right power grab will mobilize the centrist electorate to vote for his party to prevent NR from obtaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament.

    He is also believed to be hoping that, even if NR performs well and he has to appoint a member of the party as prime minister (with NR leader Jordan Bardella the likely candidate for such an eventuality, known as “cohabitation” in France), the party will fail to impress voters when it has a prominent role in French politics, and will fail in the presidential election in 2027.

    ‘Desperate’ president, risky ‘gamble’

    Some of Macron’s critics and political commentators have been less than impressed by Macron’s decision and strategy, however, with some saying it makes Macron look arrogant — an accusation leveled at him by his critics in previous years — and like a man willing to roll the dice with the country’s future.

    Left-leaning newspaper Liberation described the snap election call as an “extreme gamble,” while the center-right Le Figaro ran a brief headline Monday: “Le choc” (“shock”). It continued with an editorial in which the paper’s editor-in-chief Alexis Brézet said “the earthquake was expected, the aftershock seemed unthinkable.”

    Brézet warned that Macron was “taking the risk of entrusting the reins of power … to the party whose progress he had promised to stem! This unprecedented decision is, for the country, a leap into the unknown, the consequences of which are incalculable.” He suggested that Macron had decided to call a snap election because he had been personally humiliated by the EU election result, saying that as a result “Macron has decided to go all in!”

    Jérôme Fenoglio, the editorial director of the popular Le Monde newspaper, was also critical of the move, describing French citizens as “the stakes” in “the risky gamble of a desperate president.”

    “The problem, above all, is that the player [Macron] has lost his lead. That happened well before the humiliation of the European election results, in which Macron’s Renaissance party got less than half as many votes as the far-right Rassemblement National … The campaign merely concentrated this mixture of arrogance and clumsiness, which disgusts many voters ready to turn to a protest vote,” Fenoglio wrote Monday.

    He described the Élysée Palace’s “initial explanations … to justify this dissolution, a mixture of bluff and self-persuasion.” In the meantime, other commentators and newspapers, such as Les Echos, have characterized Macron’s move as a game of poker.

    CNBC has contacted the Élysée Palace for a response to the comments and is awaiting a reply.

    ‘Personal and institutional’ reasons

    The adage goes that it takes years to build a good reputation and minutes to shatter it. Macron has been accused of elitism, obnoxiousness and arrogance during his presidency.

    Fordham: Fallout from European elections will be contained to France

    In 2017, an expensively suited Macron courted controversy by describing opponents of his labor reforms as “slackers” (it became a rallying cry for protestors) and being seen to be out of touch with voters’ concerns over immigration, housing and the cost of living. He has been accused frequently of being a defender of the wealthy and a “president of the rich,” an accusation that fueled the “yellow-vest” protests of 2018 and 2019. Macron’s supporters defend the president as a self-made and ambitious man who has a direct way of speaking to voters.

    Whether it’s deserved or not, Macron’s reputation for arrogance has been hard to shake. Robert Ladrech, emeritus professor of European politics at Keele University, told CNBC Monday that Macron’s latest election call “could be seen as arrogant for two reasons — [both] personal and institutional.”

    “First, he has interpreted the vote for the European Parliament as a personal insult, as a rejection of his domestic policy direction. His immigration policy had already ‘hardened’ recently, and he mentioned last year that perhaps a ‘pause’ in EU climate policy would be good. Both of these nods to the RN electorate appear to have had no impact, if indeed the vote was a referendum on him,” he noted.

    “Second, a French president has before dissolved parliament only a couple of years into its mandate to call fresh elections, conservative [former] President Chirac in 1997, hoping to enlarge his majority. He blew it big, forced to ‘co-habit’ with a left-wing prime minister, Jospin. So, either way, it is a gamble on Macron’s part — arrogance if he thinks he can ‘win’, and arrogance if he thinks a win for the RN may take the wind out of its sails by the 2027 presidential election.”

    French snap election 'akin to the Brexit vote,' Allianz economist says

    Macron’s political opponents are less than impressed — apart, of course, from NR itself, which has been buoyed by its boost in the parliamentary elections and has welcomed the chance to increase its share of the vote. Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo said she was “stunned” by Macron’s decision.

    “Like a lot of people I was stunned to hear the president decide to do a dissolution (of parliament),” she said of Macron’s surprise announcement Sunday, calling the decision to do it just weeks ahead of the Paris Olympic Games as “extremely unsettling.”

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  • Prince William Joins World Leaders as He Stands in for King Charles on D-Day Anniversary

    Prince William Joins World Leaders as He Stands in for King Charles on D-Day Anniversary

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    Prince William stood in for King Charles on Thursday as two days of commemorations marking the 80th anniversary of D-Day came to a close.

    In one of the most significant moments as the Prince of Wales, William stepped in for his father to join world leaders including President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Normandy for the finale of the 80th anniversary of the historic D-Day landings.

    First Lady Jill Biden, US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, French First Lady Brigitte Macron, William The Prince of Wales, Australia’s Governor-General David Hurley with his wife, Grand Duke Henri of Luxembourg, King Willem-Alexander of The Netherlands, Queen Maxima of The Netherlands and Italian President Sergio Mattarella attend the D-Day commemoration at Omaha beach on June 6, 2024 in Saint-Laurent-sur-Mer, France.

    Patrick van Katwijk/Getty Images

    During the visit, Prince William also met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose country is at war with Russia. William, who has met Zelensky several times, greeted him with a warm handshake.

    King Charles asked William to be at the ceremony on Omaha Beach, which included King Frederik X of Denmark and other world leaders, as palace aides were instructed to scale back the king’s schedule on the advice of his medical team to prevent exhaustion.

    Charles, who is undergoing cancer treatment, attended a service at the British Normandy Memorial in Ver-sur-Mer earlier in the day where he paid tribute to the “remarkable wartime generation.”

    He was determined to attend the commemorative events in Portsmouth and Normandy. He has attended the most important parts of the two-day-long occasion, delivering moving speeches and meeting veterans.

    However, on Thursday afternoon it fell to Prince William to stand in for his father — something he had done last December when he attended the funeral of the Emir of Kuwait.

    Image may contain Justin Trudeau Prince William Duke of Cambridge Gabriel Attal Accessories Formal Wear Tie and Adult

    French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Prince William on their return way after laying a wreath at Juno Beach during the Canadian Signature Ceremony in Courseulles-sur-Mer, commemorating the 80th anniversary of D-Day and the Battle of Normandy, on June 6, 2024, in Juno Beach, Courseulles sur Mer, Normandy, France.

    Anadolu/Getty Images

    On Thursday, William showed off his leadership and diplomatic skills and praised the bravery of the veterans who fought on D-Day. In a speech delivered to over 25 leaders and diplomats, the 41-year-old spoke in English and French to commend the action of Canadian troops who stormed the seafront on D-Day. He also laid a wreath and honored 14,000 Canadians who stormed Juno Beach 80 years ago on Thursday and delighted locals when he made a surprise visit to the D-Day Museum in Arromanches, where he spoke with veterans and received a warm welcome from well-wishers.

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    Katie Nicholl

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  • Violence rages in New Caledonia as France rushes emergency reinforcements to its Pacific territory

    Violence rages in New Caledonia as France rushes emergency reinforcements to its Pacific territory

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    Violence raged across New Caledonia for the third consecutive day Thursday, hours after France imposed a state of emergency in the French Pacific territory, boosting security forces’ powers to quell unrest in the archipelago that has long sought independence.

    French authorities in New Caledonia and the interior ministry in Paris said five people, including two police officers, were killed after protests earlier this week over voting reforms pushed by President Emmanuel Macron’s government turned deadly.

    At least 60 members of the security forces were injured and 214 people were arrested over clashes with police, arson and looting Thursday, the territory’s top French official, High Commissioner Louis Le Franc, said.

    “Everything is being done to restore order and calm that Caledonians deserve,” French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said after a meeting at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

    He said that in addition to 1,700 security forces troops that have already been deployed to help police, 1,000 more are on the way but the situation “remains very tense, with looting, riots, arson and attacks, which are unbearable and unspeakable.”

    Two members of the island’s Indigenous Kanak community were among the five dead, French Interior and Overseas Territories Minister Gerald Darmanin said Thursday as he vowed that France “will regain total control.”

    He said 10 people, all allegedly from the pro-independence movement known as The Field Acton Coordination Unit, were under house arrest. In April, the group had backed several protests against French authorities on the island.

    Still, Darmanin claimed the movement is a “small group which calls itself pro-independence, but instead commits looting, murder and violence.”

    Leaders of a Kanak Workers Union in Paris appealed for calm and said they were deeply saddened by deaths in their faraway homeland.

    “We wish to see the French government make a strong political statement rather than send troops,” a union leader Rock Haocas told reporters on Thursday. “Starting a conversation would be a strong political statement.”

    In New Caledonia, The National Council of Chiefs of the Indigenous Kanak people condemned “all acts of vandalism and gun violence,” but rejected the allegations that the pro-independence movement was involved in the deadly violence.

    Grand Chief Hippolyte Sinewami-Htamumu expressed full support for the pro-independence group, which has mobilized more than a hundred thousand people “of all ages and from all backgrounds” in peaceful protests in recent months in the capital, Nouméa, and throughout the island.

    “This is not a ‘terrorist group’ or ‘mafia group,’ as certain political leaders want us to believe,” he said in a statement on Thursday.

    The state of emergency will be in place for at least 12 days as French military forces were being deployed to protect ports and airports and to free up police troops. The curfew has been extended until Friday morning, said Le Franc, the high commissioner.

    The territory’s political parties also appealed for calm on both sides — those who support independence and those who want the island to remain part of France.

    The last time France imposed emergency powers on one of its overseas territories was in 1985, also in New Caledonia. The measures enable French and local authorities on the archipelago to tackle unrest, authorizing house detentions for those deemed a threat to public order, allowing for searches, weapons’ seizures and restricting movement, with possible jail time for violators.

    The Pacific island east of Australia, home to about 270,000 people and 10 time zones ahead of Paris, is known to tourists for its UNESCO World Heritage atolls and reefs. Tensions have simmered for decades between the Indigenous Kanaks seeking independence and colonizers’ descendants who want it to remain part of France.

    People of European descent in New Caledonia, which has long served as France’s prison colony and now has a French military base, distinguish between descendants of colonizers and descendants of the many prisoners sent to the territory by force.

    This week’s unrest erupted as the French legislature in Paris debated amending the French constitution to make changes to voter lists in New Caledonia. The National Assembly on Wednesday approved a bill that will, among other changes, allow residents who have lived in New Caledonia for 10 years to cast ballots in provincial elections.

    Opponents say this will benefit pro-France politicians in New Caledonia and further marginalize the Kanaks, who had once suffered from strict segregation policies and widespread discrimination.

    Macron said Wednesday that he would convene the Congress, a joint session of lawmakers from both houses of the French parliament, by the end of June to amend the constitution and make the bill law in the absence of a meaningful dialogue and consensus among local representatives.

    New Caledonia became French in 1853 under Emperor Napoleon III, Napoleon’s nephew and heir. It became an overseas territory after World War II, with French citizenship granted to all Kanaks in 1957.

    A peace deal between rival factions was reached in 1988. A decade later, France promised to grant New Caledonia political power and broad autonomy, and hold up to three successive referendums on the island’s future.

    The referendums were organized between 2018 to 2021 and a majority of voters chose to have New Caledonia remain part of France, instead of backing independence.

    The pro-independence Kanak people rejected the results of the last, 2021 referendum, which they had boycotted because it was held at the height of the coronavirus pandemic.

    ___

    Surk reported from Nice, France. Associated Press reporter Oleg Cetinic in Paris contributed to this report.

    Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

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  • How Did Europe Get Left Behind?

    How Did Europe Get Left Behind?

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    The privileged ability to spend through the dollar’s global reserve status, though amounting to a national debt of unprecedented size, has allowed the U.S. to run circles around Europe in public spending and crisis-time stimulus while subverting debt crises. USGS via Unsplash

    If the United Kingdom or France joined the United States, they would become the poorest states in the country, with a GDP per capita lower than even Mississippi. Germany would be the second poorest. For most of the second half of the 20th century, Europe and the U.S. rivaled each other in GDP. In 2008, the EU and U.S. had GDPs of $14.2 trillion and $14.8 trillion, respectively. Closing 2023, the EU has seen little growth, with a GDP of around $15 trillion, while the U.S. has marched ahead to a GDP of $27 trillion.

    The EU GDP growth clocked in at 0.1 percent for 2023’s last quarter, a small fraction of the U.S.’s 3.4 percent during the same period. The UK fell into recession in the back half of last year, but the French economy looks to an optimistic forecast of 0.9 percent growth for 2024 to put six months of stagflation in the rearview mirror. While inflation has come down to just above 3 percent, similar to the U.S., the European Central Bank’s rate hikes have taken a larger toll on the nation-states.

    One reason Europe has fallen behind? A spending handicap.

    After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), which originated in the U.S. real estate debt and loaning markets in 2007 and triggered a recession in Europe in the second quarter of 2008, the U.S. and Europe increased stimulus spending and access to liquidity. This increased the debt-to-GDP percent in the U.S. from 61.8 percent in 2007 to 82.0 percent in 2009 and from around 60 percent to 73 percent for the average EU government in the same time period. Because the U.S. benefits from the dollar’s reserve currency status, it can comfortably borrow large amounts at relatively low rates due to the high demand and liquidity of the U.S. treasury market. Europeans cannot take advantage of the same privilege, and thus saw a growing debt crisis in the years following the GFC in countries like Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain, which were having trouble paying back the debt their governments had borrowed. The crisis peaked in 2010 when Greece’s sovereign debt was downgraded to junk by rating agencies. Numerous European countries required bailouts from the IMF and EU and instituted new austerity policies that limited public spending.

    Such austerity policies became handicaps in dealing with future crises: during the COVID pandemic, the U.S. distributed $5 trillion in stimulus, while the U.K. and Germany spent $500 billion, France spent $235 billion, and Italy $216 billion, as per Moody’s. Though controversial then and a contributor to the steep inflation that followed, the cash cascade likely helped the U.S. spend itself out of a recession. Household savings were at dramatic highs following the pandemic, allowing consumer spending—contributing to 70 percent of the U.S. GDP—to be strong through the Federal Reserve rate hikes. Post-pandemic, the U.S. has continued its public investment streak with the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act, contributing another $2 trillion to its manufacturing and construction sectors and far exceeding EU contributions.

    The privileged ability to spend through the dollar’s global reserve status, though amounting to a national debt of unprecedented size, has allowed the U.S. to run circles around Europe in public spending and crisis-time stimulus while subverting debt crises.

    A variety of other factors

    The explanation of why the U.S. economy has outpaced Europe cannot be reduced to just one reason. Broad structural differences are at play: the U.S. enjoys a large single free trade zone, where capital and labor can unquestionably cross state boundaries without additional tax, tariff or currency conversion costs. Brexit and many other hurdles have tested the EU’s free trade zone. The U.S. is also unusually entrepreneurial: more start-ups are founded in the U.S. than in the European Union, and the U.S. leads the world in VC funding. Eight of the ten largest companies globally by market cap are American; none are European. The U.S. is also the globe’s most attractive place for investment, making the New York Stock Exchange larger than every European stock exchange combined (and that is just one of the U.S.’s equity exchanges). Recent events also serve as obstacles: energy embargos on Russia have been far more taxing on Europe, with the cost of electricity far higher than in the U.S. and not yet returning to pre-sanction levels.

    Recent events also serve as obstacles: energy embargos on Russia have been far more taxing on Europe, with the cost of electricity far higher than in the U.S. and not yet returning to pre-sanction levels.

    What’s next?

    European leaders are eager to act. “We’re in danger of falling out of touch. There is no time to waste. The gap between the European Union and the U.S. in terms of economic performances is becoming bigger and bigger,” former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta admitted in a recent report.

    Last week, European leaders gathered to discuss the “European Competitiveness Deal,” aimed at helping the continent catch up to the U.S. and China. The policy would upskill workers, make Europe more attractive for capital, reduce the cost of energy and strengthen trade, as per the European Commission. Among Europe’s long-term challenges is that its leaders ultimately need to make their markets an attractive place for Europeans to invest their savings; French President Emmanuel Macron noted that “Europe has more savings than the United States of America … and every year, around 300 billion euros of these savings go to finance the American economy.”

    The U.S. greatly benefits from a stronger Europe, giving it an ally to help curtail Chinese and Russian influence. However, the U.S. has recently levied tariffs against Europe while implementing trade and subsidy policies. European leaders have criticized it as protectionist, reducing Europe’s global competitiveness and growth potential.

    How Did Europe Get Left Behind?

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  • The Latest | World leaders urge Israel not to retaliate for the Iranian drone and missile attack

    The Latest | World leaders urge Israel not to retaliate for the Iranian drone and missile attack

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    World leaders are urging Israel not to retaliate after Iran launched an attack involving hundreds of drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

    British Foreign Secretary David Cameron told the BBC on Monday the U.K. does not support a retaliatory strike, while French President Emmanuel Macron said Paris will try to “convince Israel that we must not respond by escalating.”

    The Iranian attack on Saturday, less than two weeks after a suspected Israeli strike in Syria that killed two Iranian generals in an Iranian consular building, marked the first time Iran has launched a direct military assault on Israel, despite decades of enmity dating back to the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

    An Israeli military spokesman said that 99% of the drones and missiles launched by Iran were intercepted.

    Israel and Iran have been on a collision course throughout Israel’s six-month war against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. The war erupted after Hamas and Islamic Jihad, two militant groups backed by Iran, carried out a devastating cross-border attack on Oct. 7 that killed 1,200 people in Israel and kidnapped 250 others.

    An Israeli offensive in Gaza has caused widespread devastation and killed over 33,700 people, according to local health officials.

    Currently:

    — The shadow war between Iran and Israel has been exposed. What happens next?

    — US works to prevent an escalation across the Mideast as Biden pushes Israel to show restraint.

    — Iran’s attack on Israel raised fears of a wider war, but all sides in the conflict also scored gains.

    — Iran and Israel have a history of enmity. What key recent events led to Iran’s assault on Israel?

    Here is the latest:

    AUSTRIAN FOREIGN MINISTER CONDEMNS IRAN’S ATTACK

    BERLIN -– Austria’s foreign minister has spoken with his Iranian counterpart to condemn Tehran’s attack on Israel and call on Iran to rein in its proxies in the Middle East.

    Alexander Schallenberg said in a statement he told Iran’s Hossein Amirabdollahian on Monday that “we cannot afford another front in the Middle East. There would only be losers, in the region and beyond.”

    Schallenberg said he also urged Amirabdollahian to “exercise Iran’s influence on proxies in the region.”

    Austria hosted talks on Iran’s nuclear agreement with world powers in 2015.

    Amirabdollahian already spoke on Sunday with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. A spokesperson for Baerbock, Christian Wagner, said Iran’s ambassador to Germany was summoned to the Foreign Ministry in Berlin on Monday.

    OIL PRICES FALL AFTER IRAN’S STRIKE ON ISRAEL IS THWARTED

    Oil prices fell on Monday after Iran’s missile and drone strike failed to cause widespread damage in Israel and the U.S. administration made it clear it did not support a wider war with Iran.

    Analysts say the chief risk to oil prices from the Israel-Hamas war is if the conflict escalates and disrupts oil supplies from Iran and Persian Gulf producers through the Strait of Hormuz choke point.

    The stance taken by Iran, which said the matter “can be deemed concluded” with the retaliatory strikes, and the U.S. position reassured oil traders, who sent the price of international benchmark Brent crude 0.7% lower to $89.82 per barrel in Monday morning trading. That is below the levels just above $90 per barrel seen on Friday before the weekend attacks.

    Risks that could send prices higher include any Israeli strike against Iranian oil facilities or tougher enforcement of sanctions against Iran by the U.S. “Any retaliation by Israel … especially one that targets Iran’s oil facilities, will have major implications for energy markets,” said analysts at S&P Global.

    Tougher sanctions enforcement against Iranian oil shipments by the U.S. could raise oil prices but would risk higher inflation and pump prices for U.S. motorists in an election year.

    4 ISRAELI SOLDIERS WOUNDED IN A BLAST ALONG THE BORDER WITH LEBANON

    TEL AVIV — The Israeli military says four soldiers were wounded by an explosion along the northern border with Lebanon.

    The military said that the source of the explosion, which occurred overnight, was still unclear. It left one soldier severely wounded, two moderately wounded, and one with light injuries.

    The Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah said Monday that mines they set up in southern Lebanon near the border detonated after Israeli ground troops encroached on Lebanese territory, incurring casualties.

    The incident comes as tensions in the region soared after an Iranian air assault was thwarted by Israel and its allies. Israel has not said whether it will respond.

    Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza on Oct. 7, concerns have grown that near-daily clashes along the border between Israel and Hezbollah could escalate into a full-scale war.

    GERMAN CHANCELLOR CALLS ON ISRAEL TO CONTRIBUTE TO DE-ESCALATION

    BERLIN -– German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is calling on Israel to “contribute to de-escalation” in the Middle East following Iran’s attack on the country.

    Scholz told reporters in Shanghai on Monday that “Iran must stop this aggression.”

    Asked whether he will attempt to dissuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from a military response to Saturday night’s attack, he said there’s widespread agreement that Israel’s success in largely repelling the attack with allies’ help was “really impressive.”

    He added that “this is a success that perhaps also should not be thrown away. Hence also our advice to contribute to de-escalation themselves.”

    Germany is a staunch ally of Israel.

    AFRICAN GOVERNMENTS URGE ISRAEL, IRAN TO AVOID ESCALATION

    KAMPALA, Uganda — Some African governments are urging Israel and Iran to avoid an escalation of the conflict.

    While Iran’s attack on Israel “represents a real and present threat to international peace and security,” Israel should “show utmost restraint” in its response, President William Ruto of Kenya said in a statement posted on social platform X.

    The warring parties “must exercise the utmost restraint and avoid any act that would escalate tensions in a particularly fragile region,” South Africa’s government said in a statement Sunday.

    Nigeria’s Foreign Ministry urged Israel and Iran to “reflect on the universal commitment to peaceful resolution of conflicts.”

    GAZA HEALTH MINISTRY REPORTS 68 DEAD IN LAST 24 HOURS

    CAIRO — The Health Ministry in Gaza on Monday said the bodies of 68 people killed in Israel’s bombardment have been brought to hospitals in the past 24 hours. Another 94 were wounded, it said.

    The fresh fatalities brought the death toll in the strip to 33,797 since the war began on Oct. 7, it said. The ministry doesn’t differentiate between civilians and combatants, but said two thirds of the dead are children and women.

    Another 76,456 were wounded in the war, the ministry said.

    The ministry said many casualties remain under the rubble and first responders have been unable to retrieve them amid the relentless bombing.

    Israel launched its war on Hamas after the militant group’s complex attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7. Israeli authorities say 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed and roughly 250 people taken hostage in the attack. Israel says it has killed 12,000 militants in its offensive, without providing evidence.

    ISRAELI MILITARY WARNS PALESTINIANS NOT TO RETURN TO NORTHERN GAZA

    DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip — The Israeli military renewed warnings on Monday for Palestinians in Gaza not to return to the embattled territory’s north, a day after five people were killed trying to reach their homes in the war-torn area.

    The military said Palestinians should stay in southern Gaza where they have been told to shelter because the north is a “dangerous combat zone,” Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee wrote on social platform X.

    On Sunday, hundreds of Palestinians sheltering in central Gaza headed north in an attempt to return to their homes. Throngs of people were seen crowding a seaside road.

    Hospital authorities in Gaza said five people were shot by Israeli forces while trying to head north. The Israeli military had no immediate comment and the precise circumstances behind the deaths were not immediately clear.

    The returnees said they were prompted to make the journey north because they were fed up with the difficult conditions they are forced to live under while displaced.

    Northern Gaza was an early target in Israel’s war against Hamas, which it launched in response to the militant group’s deadly Oct. 7 attack. The military is still operating in the north in a bid to stamp out militants that have regrouped.

    Vast parts of northern Gaza have been flattened by Israel’s offensive and much of its population displaced.

    BRITISH FOREIGN SECRETARY URGES ISRAEL TO AVOID STRIKING BACK AT IRAN

    LONDON — British Foreign Secretary David Cameron has urged Israel “to be smart as well as tough” and avoid striking back at Iran in response to its drone and missile barrage.

    Cameron told the BBC that the U.K. does not support a retaliatory strike. The U.K.’s top diplomat said the attack had been a defeat for Iran and echoed President Joe Biden, who urged Israel to “take the win.”

    Cameron said Britain’s message to Israel is: “Now is the time to be smart as well as tough, to think with head as well as heart.”

    He said British fighter jets had played an “important part” in shooting down some of the more than 300 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones fired at Israel from Iran, but did not provide details.

    MACRON SAYS IRAN’S ATTACK ON ISRAEL WAS A ‘DISPROPORTIONATE RESPONSE’

    PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron said Iran’s attack on Israel was a “disproportionate response” to the bombing of its consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus. Firing a barrage of missiles and drones on Israel was an “unprecedented, very dangerous” act in the volatile Middle East, Macron said of Saturday’s attacks.

    Speaking to French media BFMTV and RMC on Monday, Macron said that France had carried out “interceptions” of missiles that Iran aimed at Israel at the request of Jordan.

    “We have condemned, we have intervened, we will do everything to avoid an escalation, an inferno,” Macron said.

    He said France will try to “convince Israel that we must not respond by escalating.”

    Instead of retaliating by attacking Tehran, France will work to “isolate Iran, increase sanctions and find a path to peace in the region,” Macron said.

    GERMAN FM TELLS IRANIAN COUNTERPART NOT TO FURTHER ESCALATE TENSIONS

    PARIS – Germany’s foreign minister says she has made “unmistakably” clear to her Iranian counterpart that Tehran must not further escalate tensions in the Middle East.

    Annalena Baerbock spoke by phone Sunday with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, following a previous conversation last week before Iran’s attack on Israel. She said she “warned him unmistakably against a further escalation.”

    She said at a news conference in Paris on Monday that “Iran is isolated.” She added that “Israel won in a defensive way” thanks to its strong air defense and the intervention of the U.S., Britain and Arab countries.

    Baerbock said that “it is now important to secure this defensive victory diplomatically” and prevent a regional confrontation.

    Asked whether Israel has the right to strike back against Iran, Baerbock said that “the right to self-defense means fending off an attack; retaliation is not a category in international law.” She said she had made that point to Amirabdollahian last week.

    SECURITY COUNCIL HOLDS EMERGENCY MEETING ON IRAN ATTACK. NO ACTION TAKEN

    UNITED NATIONS — The United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting Sunday to discuss Iran’s attack on Israel. The meeting ended without any action by the council.

    “Now is the time to defuse and de-escalate,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said. “Now is the time for maximum restraint.”

    Israeli Ambassador Gilad Erdan told the council: “Last night, the world witnessed an unprecedented escalation that serves as the clearest proof for what happens when warnings aren’t heeded. Israel is not the boy who cried wolf.”

    Iranian Ambassador Saeid Iravani said: “Iran’s operation was entirely in the exercise of Iran’s inherent right to self-defense. This concluded action was necessary and proportionate.

    U.S. deputy ambassador Robert Wood said after the meeting ended, “There has to be a Security Council response to what happened last night.”

    ISRAELI MILITARY LIFTS RESTRICTIONS, SAYS SCHOOLS CAN REOPEN

    The Israeli military says children can return to school after lifting a series of restrictions on public activities that were imposed ahead of Sunday’s Iranian missile strike.

    The military’s Home Front command late Saturday canceled school and limited the size of public gatherings as a safety precaution ahead of the missile attack.

    Monday’s announcement reflected the determination that the threat of further attacks has passed.

    The Home Front Command says the changes went into effect at midnight.

    BIDEN SPEAKS WITH JORDAN’S KING ABDULLAH II

    The White House says President Joe Biden spoke by phone Sunday with Jordan’s King Abdullah II about the situation in the Middle East.

    Biden strongly condemned the attack launched by Iran, which the White House says also “threatened Jordan and the Jordanian people.” Both leaders said they continue to monitor the situation and will remain in close touch over the coming days.

    They also discussed the situation in Gaza, and reaffirmed their cooperation to increase critical humanitarian assistance to Gaza and to find a path to end the crisis as soon as possible.

    ISRAEL’S PRESIDENT SAYS RESPONSE TO IRAN ATTACK SHOWED ‘IRONCLAD’ ALLIANCE BETWEEN ISRAEL, US

    Israel’s President Isaac Herzog said on CNN Sunday afternoon that the last 24 hours had shown the “ironclad” alliance between the U.S. and Israel.

    Herzog was referring to the Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel less than two weeks after a suspected Israeli strike in Syria that killed two Iranian generals in an Iranian consular building. Israel and its coalition of partners, including the U.S., were able to defeat 99% of the munitions.

    “We can argue on many things and it’s legitimate,” Herzog said. “We have our objectives and we are a small nation. The United States is a world superpower, has its interests. But at the end we must have a dialogue.”

    Herzog, referring to the Hamas attack on Israel in October and Israel’s response, said everyone who watches and analyzes Israel must understand that “we have been met by an empire of evil. It’s true. It’s absolutely true. Our citizens were raped and butchered and burned and tortured and abducted in an unbelievably unprecedented massacre.”

    Herzog then called it a “Hamas-acre.”

    He said Israel is working closely with the U.S. and other allies on the situation in Gaza.

    US SAYS IRAN’S ATTACK ON ISRAEL CLEARLY INTENDED TO CAUSE ‘SIGNIFICANT’ DAMAGE, DEATH

    WASHINGTON — Senior Biden administration officials said Sunday it was clear Iran’s attack on Israel was intended to cause significant damage and death, and U.S. officials had been in regular contact with their Israeli counterparts.

    Israel and its coalition of partners were able to defeat 99% of the munitions, a senior administration official. If the assault had been successful, “this attack could have cause an uncontrollable escalation of broader regional conflict.”

    The heads of the G7 leading industrialized nations on their call Sunday were “totally united” in the condemnation of Iran and need to hold Iran to account for the assault, the official said.

    Biden in his call with Netanyahu reaffirmed his unwavering support for Israel’s defense, the official said, but then told the prime minister “that Israel really came out far ahead in this exchange.”

    ISRAEL ACTIVATING TWO RESERVE BRIGADES FOR OPERATIONS IN GAZA

    JERUSALEM — The Israeli military says it is activating two reserve brigades for “operational activities” in Gaza.

    Sunday’s announcement comes as Israel prepares for a ground invasion of Rafah – the southern Gaza city that Israel says is Hamas’ last major stronghold.

    Israel last week withdrew most of its remaining ground forces from Gaza after six months of war, leaving its troop levels in the territory at the lowest level in months.

    The Rafah invasion faces stiff international opposition, in large part because over 1 million people, roughly half of Gaza’s population, are now crowded into the city after fleeing fighting elsewhere in the territory. They say they have nowhere else to go.

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he is determined to complete the Gaza operation. He says Israel has even set a date for the operation and claimed that Israel has a plan to evacuate civilians from Rafah.

    G7 COUNTRIES CONDEMN IRAN’S ATTACK ON ISRAEL

    ROME — Leaders of the G7 — the informal gathering of industrialized countries that includes the United States, United Kingdom and France — issued a statement Sunday “unequivocally condemning in the strongest terms Iran’s direct and unprecedented attack against Israel.”

    The statement came after the leaders met in a video conference hosted by the Italian presidency.

    “Iran fired hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel. Israel, with the help of its partners, defeated the attack,” the statement reads. “We express our full solidarity and support to Israel and its people and reaffirm our commitment towards its security.”

    The group also stressed that Iran “with its actions, has further stepped toward the destabilization of the region and risks provoking an uncontrollable regional escalation.”

    The G7 leaders said that scenario must be avoided.

    “We will continue to work to stabilize the situation and avoid further escalation. In this spirit, we demand that Iran and its proxies cease their attacks, and we stand ready to take further measures now and in response to further destabilizing initiatives,” they said.

    Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

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  • Prince Edward and Sophie Stand in for King Charles During Historic Changing of the Guard

    Prince Edward and Sophie Stand in for King Charles During Historic Changing of the Guard

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    For any first-time visitor to London, the Changing of the Guard at Buckingham Palace, a military maneuver that has been in place for hundreds of years, is a must-see. The ritual is meant to show the precision and discipline of the royal guard, and the bright red uniforms and towering bearskin caps its participants wear have become synonymous with the palace. On Monday, this long-standing tradition took on a historically unique twist, as Prince Edward and Sophie, the Duchess of Edinburgh, oversaw the ceremony, and watched French troops join their British comrades in the routine.

    Monday marked the 120th anniversary of a diplomatic agreement between the United Kingdom and France, called the “entente cordiale.” It was not a formal alliance, but the agreements laid the groundwork for a long diplomatic relationship between the two territories, the longevity of which is being celebrated by the governments throughout 2024. Typically, King Charles III would oversee the special commemoration of the date and inspection of the troops, but due to his recent cancer diagnosis and treatment, the monarch has limited his public-facing engagements.

    When 32 members of the Gendarmerie’s Garde Républicaine joined 40 guardsmen from the Scots Guards F Company for the ceremony at Buckingham Palace, it was the first time in history that members of the military from a non-Commonwealth country had participated in the ceremony. Sophie, Edward, and Hélène Duchêne, the French ambassador to the U.K., inspected the troops in front of the palace, taking in a parade honoring the occasion. The Band of the Grenadier Guards played the national anthems of both countries to underscore the importance of the relationship between the two countries, and of the diplomatic agreements. 

    Britain’s Prince Edward, Duke of Edinburgh and Britain’s Sophie, Duchess of Edinburgh, react as members of France’s Gendarmerie Garde Republicaine take part in a special Changing of the Guard ceremony stand on duty at Buckingham Palace in London on April 8, 2024.VICTORIA JONES/Getty Images

    In Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron likewise took part in an inspection at the French presidential residence at the Elysée Palace, where 16 members of the U.K.’s Number 7 Company Coldstream Guards, as well as two military musicians, joined members of France’s 1st Régiment de la Garde Républicaine in a counterpart ceremony Monday. This is the first time that British troops have joined the French presidential guard, making the day all the more notable. 

    French Squadron Chief Guillaume Dewilde, who oversaw the French detachment at Buckingham Monday, told the Telegraph, “I am extremely proud to have been asked to share this moment with our British friends. We are like siblings, and to celebrate this moment together is a symbol of the strength of the relationship between our two countries.”

    Ahead of the ceremony, British Lt Col James Shaw, who helped plan the event, told the outlet that the occasion not only honored the past, but looked forward to the future of the continuing relationship. 

    “This is a sign of the strength of our relations. The French are some of our closest friends,” he said.  “And who knows when we might need each other?”

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    Kase Wickman

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  • French President Emmanuel Macron Finally Addresses Rumors His Wife Was Born A Man

    French President Emmanuel Macron Finally Addresses Rumors His Wife Was Born A Man

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    Source: Emmanuel Macron YouTube, Alain P X

    The French President Emmanuel Macron, 46, has finally broken his silence to address the rumors that his 70 year-old wife Brigitte was born a man.

    Macron Addresses Rumors About His Wife

    While speaking at an International Women’s Day event in Paris on Friday after he guaranteed the right to abortion in France’s Constitution, Macron became emotional and angry as he addressed the rumors that are currently circulating about his wife, who he married in 2007 after carrying out an affair with her as a teenager when he was a student and she was his teacher.

    Daily Mail reported that Macron defended his wife from the rumors while expressing his frustration that they continue to spread.

    “The worst thing is the false information and fabricated scenarios,” he lamented. “People eventually believe them and disturb you, even in your intimacy.”

    Macron went on to say that the transgender claims about Brigitte are typical of misogynistic online attacks that women are forced to put up with every day.

    Related: After Macron Complains About U.S. Climate Policy, Biden Rushes To Appease the EU

    Brigitte’s Daughter Sounds Off

    Brigitte’ lookalike daughter, the attorney Tiphaine Auzaine, 40, recently spoke out to defend her mother in a rare interview.

    “I have concerns about the level of society when I hear what is circulating on social networks about my mother being a man,” Auzaine said last month, according to The New York Post. “The confidence of what is affirmed and the credit given to what is proclaimed. Anyone can say anything about anyone, and it takes time to get it taken down.”

    Last summer, a court in Normandy handed down a defamation ruling against two French women, the psychic Amandine Roy, 52, and freelance journalist Natacha Rey, 48, after they alleged in a since-deleted four-hour YouTube video in 2021 that Brigitte was born as a baby boy named Jean-Michel Trogneux in 1953. This is actually the name of the French First Lady’s brother.

    They also claimed that Brigitte’s first husband, André-Louis Auzière, had never actually existed before he passed away in 2019 at the age of 68. Rey alleged that Jean-Louis Auzière, André-Louis’ uncle, had forged official documents to hide that his wife had given birth to all three of Brigitte’s children. Roy was fined under $1,000 while Rey was fined $500.

    Related: French President Macron Declares U.S. Climate Policy Too Liberal, Even for France

    Candace Owens Weighs In

    Earlier this week, the American conservative media personality Candace Owens did a deep dive on the claims about Brigitte being born a man.

    “I would stake my entire professional reputation on the fact that Brigitte Macron is in fact a man,” she said afterwards, according to Yahoo News. “Any journalist or publication that is trying to dismiss this plausibility is immediately identifiable as establishment. I have never seen anything like this in my life. The implications here are terrifying.”

    Owens believes that the Macrons are being blackmailed to keep Brigitte’s alleged history of being born a boy a secret, and that the blackmail includes pressure for the president to back certain policies. Check out her full comments on this in the video below.

    In certain circles, rumors have spread for years that the American former First Lady Michelle Obama is actually transgender. It will certainly be interesting to see if more evidence comes out to back the claims that Brigitte Macron was born a male.

    Now is the time to support and share the sources you trust.
    The Political Insider ranks #3 on Feedspot’s “100 Best Political Blogs and Websites.”

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  • France to seal the right to abortion in its constitution as world marks International Women’s Day

    France to seal the right to abortion in its constitution as world marks International Women’s Day

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    PARIS – France’s leadership will use a Napoleon-era press to seal the right to abortion into the country’s constitution in a historic ceremony on Friday that’s open to the public — and designed to show support to women across the world on International Women’s Day.

    France is the first country to explicitly guarantee abortion rights in the national charter.

    While abortion is a deeply divisive issue in the United States, it’s legal in nearly all of Europe and overwhelmingly supported in France, where it’s seen more as a question of public health and not politics. French legislators approved the constitutional amendment on Monday in a 780-72 vote that was backed by many far-right lawmakers.

    Friday’s ceremony, held on the cobblestones of Vendome Plaza in Paris, is a key event on a day focused on advancing women’s rights globally. Marches, protests and conferences are being held from Jakarta, Indonesia, to Mexico City and beyond.

    The French constitutional amendment has been hailed by women’s rights advocates around the world, including places where women struggle to access birth control or maternal health care. French President Emmanuel Macron called it a direct result of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in 2022 rescinding long-held abortion rights.

    Macron’s critics questioned why he pursued the measure in a country with no obvious threat to abortion rights but where women face a multitude of other problems.

    France has a persistently high rate of women killed by their partners and challenges remain in prosecuting sexual abuse against women by powerful celebrities and other men. French women also see lower pay and pensions — especially women who are not white.

    Macron’s government said the abortion amendment was important to avoid a U.S.-like scenario for women in France, as hard-right groups are gaining ground and seeking to turn back the clock on freedoms around Europe.

    Macron will preside over the constitutional ceremony. Justice Minister Eric Dupond-Moretti will use a 100-kilogram (220-pound) press from 1810 to imprint the amendment in France’s 1958 constitution.

    It will include the phrase saying, “the freedom of women to have recourse to an abortion, which is guaranteed.” The ceremony will be held outdoors with the public invited, in another first.

    France follows in the footsteps of the former Yugoslavia, whose 1974 constitution included the phrase: “A person is free to decide on having children.” Yugoslavia’s successor states retained similar language in their constitutions, though they did not spell out guaranteed abortion rights.

    In Ireland, voters will decide on Friday whether to change the constitution to remove passages referring to women’s domestic duties and broadening the definition of the family.

    Protesters in Istanbul plan to call attention to violence against women, and rallies are expected in many cities. Protests are often political and, at times, violent, rooted in women’s efforts to improve their rights as workers. This year’s global theme is “Inspire Inclusion.”

    Indonesian demonstrators demanded adoption of the International Labor Organization’s conventions concerning gender equality and eliminating workplace violence and harassment. Labor rights groups in Thailand marched to the Government House to petition for better work conditions, and activists marching against violence in the Philippine capital were stopped by police near the presidential palace, sparking a brief scuffle.

    India’s government cut the price of cooking gas cylinders by 100 rupees ($1.20) with Prime Minister Narendra Modi posting on social media that the move was “in line with our commitment to empowering women.”

    The United Nations children’s agency said in a report released on International Women’s Day that more than 230 million women and girls around the world have undergone female genital mutilation. The number has increased by 30 million in the past eight years, it said.

    “We’re also seeing a worrying trend that more girls are subjected to the practice at younger ages, many before their fifth birthday. That further reduces the window to intervene,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell.

    Officially recognized by the United Nations in 1977, International Women’s Day is a national holiday in about 20 countries, including Russia, Ukraine and Afghanistan.

    ___

    Associated Press journalists around the world contributed to this report.

    Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

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    Angela Charlton, Associated Press

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  • Russia warns NATO of certain war if West puts troops into Ukraine

    Russia warns NATO of certain war if West puts troops into Ukraine

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    “In this case, we need to talk not about the likelihood, but about the inevitability [of a conflict]. That’s how we evaluate it,” said Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary.

    “These countries must also evaluate and be aware of this, asking themselves whether this corresponds to their interests, as well as the interests of the citizens of their countries,” Peskov added.

    Macron’s comments came at the tail end of a summit in Paris, where EU leaders gathered Monday to discuss ongoing support for Kyiv. Macron said defeating Russia is “indispensable” to Europe’s security and stability, and that EU leaders discussed the topic of Western troops in a “very free and direct” manner during the summit. 

    A domestic backlash quickly grew Tuesday against Macron’s comments, and was followed by Western allies pushing back against the floated move to put soldiers into Ukraine.

    German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said leaders in Paris agreed that “everyone must do more for Ukraine,” but that “one thing is clear: There will be no ground troops from European states or NATO.”

    A spokesperson for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the U.K. has no plan for a “large-scale deployment” in Ukraine, and a Spanish government spokesperson said Madrid also disagrees with the idea of deploying European troops.

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    Laura Kayali

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  • Donald Trump just did Europe a favor

    Donald Trump just did Europe a favor

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    OK, now what?

    The truth is, Europe only has itself to blame for the morass. Trump has been harping on about NATO’s laggards for years, but he hardly invented the genre. American presidents going back to Dwight D. Eisenhower have complained about European allies freeloading on American defense.

    What Europeans don’t like to hear is that Trump has a point: They have been freeloading. What’s more, it was always unrealistic to expect the U.S. to pick pick up the tab for European security ad infinitum.

    After Trump lost to Biden in 2020, its seemed like everything had gone back to normal, however. Biden, a lifelong transatlanticist, sought to repair the damage Trump did to NATO by letting the Europeans slide back into their comfort zone.  

    Even though overall defense spending has increased in recent years in Europe — as it should have, considering Russia’s war on Ukraine — it’s still nowhere near enough. Only 11 of NATO’s 31 members are expected to meet the spending target in 2023, for example, according to NATO’s own data. Germany, the main target of Trump’s ire, has yet to achieve the 2 percent mark. It’s likely to this year, however, if only because its economy is contracting.

    The truth is, Europe was lulled back into a false sense of security by Biden’s warm embrace. Instead of going on a war footing by forcing industry to ramp up armament production and reinstating conscription in countries like Germany where it was phased out, Europe nestled itself in Americas skirts.



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    Matthew Karnitschnig

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  • Macron: ‘Whatever America decides,’ Europe must back Ukraine

    Macron: ‘Whatever America decides,’ Europe must back Ukraine

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    Macron’s comments come as European nations grapple with the looming consequences of Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House, with the NATO-skeptic ex-president on track to win the Republican nomination. In the U.S., further military aid for Ukraine is also stalled in Congress, with Republican lawmakers reluctant to continue funding Kyiv. Ukraine has been fending off Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion for almost two years now.

    “This is a decisive and testing moment for Europe. We must be ready to act to defend and support Ukraine whatever it takes and whatever America decides,” Macron said during a speech at Sweden’s Military Academy Karlberg.

    Ahead of a key European summit this week focused on Ukraine, Macron also said the EU will have “to accelerate the scale” of its support, given that the costs “of a Russian victory are too high for all of us.”

    EU leaders are hoping to agree on a €50 billion aid package for Ukraine at a European Council summit this Thursday, but fears are growing that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will use his veto to block the funds for Kyiv.

    Macron is currently on a two-day visit to Sweden to discuss partnerships in areas from energy to defense. French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu and his Swedish counterpart Pål Jonson are expected to sign letters of intent on air defense and air surveillance systems.

    France and Sweden are among the very few European countries with a wide-ranging defense industry that can also manufacture their own fighter jets — France’s Rafale by Dassault Aviation, and Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen made by Saab.

    “We both have a very strong model in terms of production,” Macron told the audience, listing equipment, weapons, missiles and ammunition. Cyber and space, he added, are “clearly two areas of conflictuality for the future where there’s a lot to do together.”

    The partnership between the French and Belgian armies — dubbed CaMo — is a model that could be replicated between France and Sweden, Macron added.



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    Clea Caulcutt and Laura Kayali

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  • Iran’s allies are attacking the West. What happens next?

    Iran’s allies are attacking the West. What happens next?

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    Could the U.S. take a tougher line?

    While the scale and target of Biden’s promised response is not yet clear, any unilateral move is likely to draw blowback from key allies in the Middle East who worry about sparking a regional war.

    Saudi Arabia has pushed for restraint in dealings with Tehran and fears the economic cost of regional instability.

    Turkey, a key NATO ally, has denounced Israel’s campaign in Gaza, while President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has accused the U.K. and the U.S. of trying to turn the Red Sea into a “sea of blood.”

    “Turkey does not want to be drawn into this conflict because it shares a border with Iran,” said Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the European Institute of the London School of Economics. “If the U.S. as its main ally in NATO gets involved in this military conflict directly then Turkey has to choose a side, and that will mean it’s harder to maintain a balanced approach — like it has done with the war in Ukraine.”

    The challenge for Biden is how to retaliate without risking escalation by Iran and its partners in the region. Conversely, doing nothing — especially after having said he would avenge the deaths of the three U.S. soldiers — would leave him vulnerable to a charge of weakness from Trump.

    “Iran’s leadership probably calculates that the United States will be reticent to fulsomely respond in any manner that would risk escalation of tensions in the Middle East and spark the region-wide [conflict] the Biden administration has admirably tried to prevent the past three months,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. deputy national intelligence officer.

    But the U.S. may have “to undertake a more fulsome response to restore deterrence,” he added.

    Jamie Dettmer, Jeremy Van der Haegen and Laura Kayali contributed reporting.



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    Gabriel Gavin

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  • Macron to ‘finalize security deal’ during Ukraine visit

    Macron to ‘finalize security deal’ during Ukraine visit

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    PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday he plans to sign a bilateral security agreement with Kyiv during a visit to Ukraine next month.

    Macron said France would “continue to help Ukraine to hold the front line and protect its skies,” and that the two countries “were finalizing a deal.” Speaking at a Paris press conference, Macron also announced the delivery of 40 Scalp long-range missiles and “several hundred” bombs to Ukraine in the coming weeks.

    France has been working on a deal for several months, aiming to shore up Ukraine’s defenses and finances in the long term. Macron’s statement comes in the wake of last week’s visit to Kyiv by British PM Rishi Sunak, during which he signed a bilateral security deal and pledged €3 billion in military aid to Ukraine over the next two years.

    European partners are under pressure to up their military support for Ukraine as Russia continues its relentless air strikes and U.S. aid seems stalled in Congress.

    Earlier this month, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz issued an unusually stark call to other EU countries to deliver more weapons to Ukraine. The arms deliveries planned so far are “too small,” he said, despite Berlin’s pledge to double its military aid to Kyiv to €8 billion this year.

    According to the Kiel Institute, which tallied military aid to Ukraine in the public domain, Germany was the second-highest donor last year after the U.S., with €17.1 billion, followed by the U.K. with €6.6 billion, and then Nordic and Eastern European countries. France, in comparison, has only contributed €0.54 billion, Italy €0.69 billion and Spain €0.34 billion.

    Macron also said France and Europe would have to take “new decisions in the weeks and months ahead,” likely a reference to talks in Brussels to resolve a dispute over a €50 billion aid package to Ukraine.

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    Clea Caulcutt

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