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Tag: Élisabeth Borne

  • Macron goes all in with high-stakes reshuffle to combat far right

    Macron goes all in with high-stakes reshuffle to combat far right

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    PARIS  — French President Emmanuel Macron has propelled rising star Gabriel Attal center stage in a high-risk gamble aimed at stopping the far right’s surge ahead of the European election.  

    In a surprise move on Tuesday, Macron appointed his former education minister and one of France’s most popular politicians as the country’s youngest-ever prime minister in a bid to re-energize his flagging presidency — at the risk of hastening the end of his own reign.

    Macron has been under pressure to jump-start his presidency as the far-right National Rally outstrips the centrists in polls ahead of the EU election in June, and in the wake of two brutal fights last year over immigration and pensions. 

    In contrast to the no-holds-barred election campaign led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, the National Rally’s lead candidate, Macron’s presidency has struggled to project any energy and vitality after seven years running France, and talk of a lame-duck presidency has become widespread in political circles.

    Despite his short political career, the 34-year-old Attal has earned himself a reputation as an obstinate attack dog or a “word sniper” against the far right, having already crossed swords with Bardella in past election debates, and a deft operator fluent as government spokesperson during the Covid pandemic and as education minister. 

    “It’s a great media coup,” said a conservative Les Républicains heavyweight, who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. Macron “is doing it because [Attal] will lead the European election campaign … he was the only one who could hold his own against Bardella,” he said. 

    Several political insiders told POLITICO the battle of the European election was one of the main reasons Macron chose Attal.

    “Gabriel Attal and Jordan Bardella are of the same generation, it’s obvious. Attal has political acumen, knows how to deliver a punchline, with substance, so it’s someone who can face off with the National Rally,” said an aide to Macron. But it’ll be thanks to “his action” that he’ll be able to beat the National Rally, he added.

    The nomination of a pugnacious politician with his own ambitions also carries a sizeable risk for the president, who has in the past favored more self-effacing, technocratic figures as his lieutenants. An Attal premiership may accelerate conversations on what comes after Macron as the French president cannot run for a third term. 

    The meteoric rise of Attal, not unlike Macron himself, is also ruffling feathers among Macron’s heavyweight allies who look askance at the young uber-achiever taking over the reins of government. Macron was “forced to work hard” to get the nomination accepted when it was supposed to be “a slam dunk,” said an ally of the president on Monday. 

    Macron’s Mini-Me on the campaign

    The upcoming European election will be the last time Macron faces off with his nemesis Marine Le Pen before the end of his mandate in four years. A far-right victory would resonate for years and poison the president’s legacy. 

    The clash comes at the worst possible time for the president, however. Not only does the National Rally lead his centrist alliance by almost 10 points in polls, but Macron’s presidency has hit rock bottom. 

    EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS

    For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

    The president’s troops have emerged battered after his much-hardened immigration bill was passed with the support of the far-right, an episode that almost splintered his centrist alliance. The immigration battle came on the heels of acrimonious debates last spring over the reform of French pensions which sparked weeks of nationwide protests.

    Macron is languishing in poll ratings according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls with only 30 percent approval ratings.

    His outgoing Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne was criticized as a technocrat who lacked charisma and political agility, worn out by successive struggles to pass legislation following Macron’s defeat in parliamentary elections last year. She also lost a lot of political capital when she failed to anticipate or prevent a shock defeat in parliament, when the National Assembly rejected the immigration bill without a vote in December.

    Attal, on the other hand, is a fresh hand at the helm. 

    “It’s great news, we’re going to have a government head who is a political operator, and capable of embodying Macron’s pro-European vision,” said Alexandre Holroyd, an MP from Macron’s Renaissance Party.

    “To stop the far-right, which is rising not just in France but across Europe, we have to show that political action is efficient,” and talking to the general public is one thing Attal is good at, he added. 

    Strategically, Attal’s nomination may also help secure the support of center-left voters, as leftwing MEP Raphaël Glucksmann emerges as a competing candidate ahead of the European election. Attal, a former Socialist Party member and the first openly gay prime minister, espouses progressive ideas and has made cyber-bullying and homophobia prominent causes. 

    What’s really changed?

    Macron himself has tasked Attal with the “regeneration” of his government, with “audacity” and “in the spirit of 2017,” his first election year, he wrote on X.

    But while Attal is a fresh face, Macron’s margin of maneuver on the domestic front is shrinking, and it’s unlikely the new premiership will be plain sailing. The centrists still lack a majority in parliament, so passing legislation will remain a painful, humiliating process as the government seeks ad hoc alliances with opposition MPs. 

    Macron is also struggling to find inspiration for his second mandate, and has piled up vague initiatives, such as the “100 days” last year, the “Saint Denis meetings” with opposition leaders, and this month “the meeting with the nation.”

    But the nomination does partially resolve an issue that has dogged Macron’s camp for weeks: who will run as Macron’s lead candidate in the European election? The far right has been hitting the campaign trail for weeks and Macron, a notorious procrastinator, has still not chosen a lead candidate for France’s Renew campaign.

    With many heavyweights in government reluctant to lead a difficult campaign, the names floated in Paris — Europe Minister Laurence Boone or Renew Group leader Stéphane Séjourné — appeared to lack sufficient clout to stand up to the far-right.

    Gabriel Attal carries more than just the European campaign on his shoulders | Pool photo by Ludovic Marin via AFP/Getty Images

    With this week’s reshuffle, Renew’s lead candidate in France could play more of a supporting role. 

    But Attal carries more than just the European campaign on his shoulders. As one of the stars of “Génération Macron,” young politicians who straddle the left-right divide and came to power with the French president, Attal will save or hasten the end of Macronism and its centrist, pro-European political offer.

    It’s the “last bullet before the end of his mandate,” said the same conservative heavyweight cited above.

    Pauline de Saint Remy contributed reporting 

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    Clea Caulcutt

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  • Macron faces backlash after Jewish ceremony at presidential palace

    Macron faces backlash after Jewish ceremony at presidential palace

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    Emmanuel Macron is facing widespread pushback, even from within his own ranks, from critics who say the president breached France’s long-standing history of secularism after he attended a Jewish ceremony in the Élysée Palace on Thursday.

    Macron had been invited to receive an award for fighting antisemitism and safeguarding religious freedoms at an annual event from the Conference of European Rabbis.

    During the event, France’s chief rabbi Haïm Korsia lit a ceremonial candle as members of the audience sang traditional Hanukkah songs in Hebrew. Lighting candles on a multi-branched candelabra, called a menorah, is a Jewish ritual that is part of the Hanukkah celebrations, which this year began on Thursday and will last until next Friday.

    Macron said Friday, during a visit to the Notre-Dame cathedral in Paris, that he didn’t regret what happened “at all.”

    “I think that on this point we need to keep our heads cool,” the French president told reporters. “Secularism isn’t about erasing religions. It’s about the fact that everyone has the right and freedom to believe and not to believe.”

    Because of the French state’s sacrosanct principle of being strictly secular, Macron’s presence at a religious ritual in an official building had sparked criticism from all sides — including from some Jewish groups.

    Yonathan Arfi, president of the French Jewish federation CRIF who also attended the event, told radio broadcaster Sud Radio on Friday that the lighting of the candle was “a mistake” and “should not have happened.”

    “The Élysée is not the place to light a Hanukkah candle because the Republican DNA is to stay away from anything religious,” Arfi added.

    Pierre Henriet, an MP from Macron’s own centrist Renaissance party, “strongly condemn[ed] this attempt at religious preferences,” adding, “By this act, Emmanuel Macron breaks with his role as guarantor of the neutrality of the State.”

    Manuel Bompard, a lawmaker from the far-left opposition France Unbowed (LFI) party, said Macron had made “an unforgivable political mistake.”

    Laurence Rossignol, a socialist lawmaker who is vice president of the French Senate, compared Macron to “a 10-year-old kid [playing] with a little chemist’s kit, but [with] real nitroglycerine and real matches.”

    The far-right National Rally, meanwhile, claimed that Macron’s attendance at the Élysée event was meant to make up for his absence at a march against antisemitism in November, which sparked criticism for the French president.

    “By lighting a candle for the religious holiday of Hanukkah at the Elysée … Macron has scorned our Jewish compatriots and at the same time our secularism,” National Rally spokesperson Julien Odoul said. “This president will never have understood France.”

    The display of religious signs in public spaces and by state officials is a particularly sensitive issue in France, where church and state have been strictly separated by law since 1905, which often ignites fiery political debates. The 118th anniversary of the law’s implementation will coincidentally be celebrated on Saturday.

    In September, Macron was criticized for attending a mass given by Pope Francis, head of the Catholic Church, at a football stadium in Marseille.

    The French president has also been under increasing pressure to show his support to French Jews following the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, which triggered massive Israeli retaliation in the Gaza Strip. A sharp rise in antisemitism has followed the escalation of war in the Middle East.

    Faced with the mounting criticism, Macron’s lieutenants went to bat for him Friday morning.

    The French president “is a defender of religions … he respects them all as head of state, and there is no violation of secularism,” Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin — in charge of religious affairs through his Cabinet role — told public broadcaster Franceinfo.

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    Nicolas Camut

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  • European countries ramp up security for Jewish community in wake of Hamas attacks on Israel

    European countries ramp up security for Jewish community in wake of Hamas attacks on Israel

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    The U.K., France, Germany, Spain and Italy have moved to bolster police protection of Jewish communities following the surprise attack by Hamas on Israel and the ensuing escalating conflict.

    Governments across Europe fear an increase in antisemitic acts as the fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza unfolds, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declaring it a “war.”

    In London, Palestinian supporters were spotted celebrating on Saturday, prompting the police to create “reassurance patrols.”

    London’s Metropolitan Police added that the conflict might lead to protests over the coming days. “We will ensure that an appropriate policing plan is in place in order to balance the right to protest against any disruption to Londoners,” they wrote in a statement.

    Tensions between Israel and the Arab world are running high, as Netanyahu vowed to take “mighty vengeance” on Saturday, after over 350 Israelis were killed by the Hamas attacks on Israel. Netanyahu already started launching retaliatory air strikes on targets in Gaza early Saturday, killing around 200 Palestinians.

    French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin said on Saturday that he asked prefects across France to boost security for the Jewish community and that there were “no threats” so far, according to the Huffington Post, but that he’ll call a meeting to assess the situation.

    This comes as French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne called the French far-left La France Insoumise party harbored “a form of antisemitism” after it published a press release calling for “the end of [Israeli] colonization.”

    Berlin’s police said they’ve “increased protective measures at Jewish and Israeli institutions” following the Hamas attacks, according to the Tagesspiegel.

    The Central Council of Jews in Germany wrote that they’re “in intensive contact” with the authorities. “The following also applies: No violence, no riots and no hatred on German streets,” it said.

    Jewish NGO the Anti-Defamation League wrote that “our data show extremists appear to be emboldened by the Hamas attack, and have increased their violent rhetoric, posting hate-filled messages and calls for further aggression against Israel and its supporters,” hinting at a potential rise in antisemitic violence.

    Similar protective measures for the Jewish community were adopted in Spain and Italy.

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  • French far-right figure ends divisive crowdfunding for officer whose shooting of teen set off unrest

    French far-right figure ends divisive crowdfunding for officer whose shooting of teen set off unrest

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    PARIS (AP) — A French far-right figure behind a divisive, and hugely successful, crowdfunding campaign for the family of a police officer jailed in the killing of a 17-year-old that triggered riots around France announced on Tuesday that he’s closing the account which topped more than 1.5 million euros ($1.63 million).

    Criticism, and plans for lawsuits, have mounted around Jean Messiha’s Gofundme effort with claims that his real motive was to spread a message of hate and pit the far-right against residents of poor suburbs with a high rate of people of immigrant origin.

    Even Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has said the collection for the jailed officer’s family did not contribute to calming the situation, just like Justice Minister Eric Dupond-Moretti who warned on France-Inter radio against a possible “instrumentalization.”

    Wendie Renard grew up in a place so remote that locals nicknamed it “The End of the World.” By the end of the Women’s World Cup, the France captain hopes she’ll be raising aloft the major international trophy that has eluded the women’s national team.

    France’s highest court has rejected a request by three groups seeking reparations for slavery in a case that originated on the French Caribbean island of Martinique.

    France, especially white France, doesn’t tend to frame discussion of discrimination and inequality in black-and-white terms.

    The lofty ideals of “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity” to which France aspires are embossed on its coins and carved above its school doors.

    The unrest was touched off by the shooting last Tuesday of the young man identified as Nahel, who was stopped while driving a Mercedes in suburban Paris. Violence was driven by a mainly teenage backlash in the suburbs and urban housing projects against a French state that many young people with immigrant roots say routinely discriminates against them. Violence appeared to continue to ebb for a third night Tuesday.

    However, reports emerged of the death early Sunday of a 27-year-old man in Marseille. The local prosecutor’s office opened an investigation Tuesday for “mortal blows with use or threat of a weapon,” the newspaper La Marseillaise reported.

    The probable cause of death was a “violent shock to the thorax caused by a projectile of the ‘flashball’ type,” commonly used by French police for riot control.

    It was not immediately clear whether the victim, who was not identified, was in the area of riots and pillaging the night of his death, the paper quoted the prosecutor’s office as saying.

    Messiha, meanwhile, hailed in a tweet what he called an “historic symbol of national generosity” while announcing the closing of the crowdfunding campaign at midnight Tuesday for the family of the jailed officer, identified only as Florian M.

    He said that more than 100,000 donors contributed to the effort he initiated on Friday that reached more than 1.5 million euros. He equated the response to a “tsunami” in support of law enforcement officers “who in a certain way fight daily so that France remains France.”

    The crowdfunding had an ugly edge with Messiha bragging at one point that his effort was bringing in more funds than a crowdfunding account set up for the family of Nahel. The family filed a complaint, alleging the crowdfunding was based on deception to “criminalize” the victim and win support for the police officer who fired at him, according to France-Info, which saw the complaint. It wasn’t immediately clear whether an investigation would be opened.

    Socialist lawmaker Arthur Delaporte from Calvados had filed a complaint earlier Tuesday against the crowdfunding contesting its legal grounds – shortly before Messiha closed it.

    Egyptian-born Messiha is a former official of the National Rally party of far-right leader Marine Le Pen which he left for a fledgling far-right party then dropped out of that to return to his think tank. He remains a virulent critic of migration from Africa.

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  • Embattled Macron struggles to reconnect with France

    Embattled Macron struggles to reconnect with France

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    DUNKIRK, France — Emmanuel Macron couldn’t have hoped for a more engaging crowd.

    A group of women — workers with hard helmets and protective gear — were asking for a photo. “You’re being mobbed by the women of Aluminium Dunkerque!” they laughed.

    Standing amid the crowd of factory workers in the port city of Dunkirk, the French president was in his element: shaking hands, fielding questions and taking selfies. “Any more questions?” he asked.

    But he did not address the elephant in the room. And none of the blue-collar workers shouted about Macron’s unpopular, controversial pensions reform. It wasn’t that nobody dared ruin the unveiling of an electric battery giga-factory project; Rather these workers had been hand-picked by their employer.

    In the past weeks, Macron has been hitting the road across France visiting towns big and small, in what he has called a bid to “engage” with the people after the bruising debates over his controversial pensions reform.

    France has been rocked by weeks of protests in the wake of the French president’s decision to bypass parliament and push through a reform raising the age of retirement to 64 from 62. The forcing through of the reform was widely seen as yet another manifestation of Macron’s famously “Jupiterian” governance style — a vertical, top-down manner of running the country.

    Though nationwide protests have ebbed since the reform became law in April, Macron’s initial visits had been dogged by ad-hoc demonstrations called casserolades [casserole protests], organized by trade unionists and protesters against his reforms. The tightly-controlled show in Dunkirk followed more tumultuous scenes during his initial visits. In the eastern region of Alsace, Macron faced booing crowds and power cuts during his visit to a local factory in April, which were claimed by the hard-line CGT trade union.

    In Dunkirk, police secure the area ahead of the French president’s visit | Clea Caulcutt

    For the French president, it has meant a clampdown on visits. Encounters with the public are minutely choreographed to avoid bad publicity, with details unveiled at the very last minute.

    In Dunkirk, over 1,000 police officers were deployed to secure the area visited by the president, erecting barricades, closing streets and banning cars in the town center. Such scenes are unusual in France where successive presidents have enjoyed freely mingling with the people. On the sidelines of his visit, POLITICO caught up with the French president to ask him about his charm offensive.

    “Of course, it’s great … I’m trying to reach out [to the people] … to explain the coherence of what we are doing. We get results when we are coherent and consistent,” he said.

    On his difficulties in connecting with the public, Macron said: “My visits are simple … The overwhelming majority of the French may be against the pensions reform … But I do not confuse people who disagree with me with the small minority that are prone to disrespect and invective.”

    Police surround a protestor during Macron’s visit to Alsace, April 2023 | Frederick Florin/AFP via Getty Images

    Grabbing the limelight

    In addition to touring the country in recent weeks, Macron has relentlessly blitzed the media sphere, granting multiple interviews to the French and international press, while putting forward a string of government proposals for improving education, tackling immigration and bringing back industry.

    “In appearance, Emmanuel Macron and [his prime minister] Elisabeth Borne adopted a very efficient strategy. In drowning out the news, with their visits, their proposals and their new measures, they were able to impose a new agenda,” said Bruno Cautrès, a politics researcher at Sciences Po University.

    “But the data shows that the public has not moved on,” he added. This month several polls showed a majority of the French still support the protest movement against the president’s centerpiece reform.

    Even if nationwide protests over the pensions reform have tapered off, concerns are rising about increasing violence against elected officials and personal attacks against the president. In the southern city of Avignon, residents woke up last week to find dozens of posters depicting the French president as Hitler. That same week, Brigitte Macron’s great-nephew was assaulted in Macron’s hometown of Amiens in an apparent politically-motivated attack.  

    Fixing France

    Beyond the accusations that Macron’s pensions reform push was too brutal, and too disrespectful of parliamentary democracy, the recent political turmoil has political commentators discussing a “democratic crisis” in France.

    Some say France needs a constitutional reform, others that political life has become too polarized. According to Sylvain Fort, a former advisor to the French president, the mainstream left and right in France still haven’t recovered from his victory in 2017.

    “My great surprise is that opposition parties are still shadows of their former selves. It’s not the president that is stopping the opposition from rebuilding itself. The president doesn’t want the democratic debate to be sterile, it’s the result of years of neglect,” he said.

    Instead, the far-right and the far-left parties have dominated the political debate in France.

    In Dunkirk, Macron eschewed ideology and hoped to make one point clear: his tough choices are bringing jobs and investment back to France. But by the same token, if Macron’s reform drive grinds to a halt, his government will face significant challenges.

    “If after all the [recent] proposals he has made, we see that in a year’s time, nothing has progressed … then yes, he will find it very difficult to finish his mandate,” said Cautrès.

    The government has already had to delay tackling a key issue — migration — because of a lack of consensus and parliamentary support. Depending on the evolution of Macron’s reconnect-with-the-people tour, his second-term agenda could be severely upended, rendering him a lame-duck president.

    Fixing the economy may not be enough to rekindle trust between the French and their president.

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    Clea Caulcutt

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  • After Macron, le déluge

    After Macron, le déluge

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    Anyone looking at France right now could be forgiven for thinking the country was on the edge of a revolution.

    Major cities from Paris to Lyon erupted in riots overnight on Thursday, with black-clad protesters lighting bonfires and hurling projectiles at riot police after President Emmanuel Macron rammed an unpopular reform of the pension system through parliament. More than 400 police were injured.

    The violence capped weeks of mass protests as millions marched through French cities to oppose the reform, which will raise the legal age of retirement to 64 from 62 currently. More protests are already planned for next week, piling pressure on Macron’s already embattled government and prompting Britain’s King Charles to cancel a highly-awaited visit.

    Yet for all the sound and fury of the protests, which could yet worsen if students join in, there’s nearly zero risk that Macron himself will have to leave office. Having narrowly survived a vote of no confidence, he may seek to reshuffle his cabinet and sack his prime minister, Élisabeth Borne — but the presidential system is so designed that the leader is nearly guaranteed to remain president until the last day of his term, in 2027.

    The bigger question, then, is about what happens after Macron, whose hyper-personal style of leadership has often been described as king-like, even by the standards of France’s monarchical Republic, leaves the stage for good. 

    Barred from seeking a third term by the constitution, Macron will leave behind a leaderless and rudderless ruling party that may well cease to exist without him, creating a power vacuum that far-left and far-right leaders, including three-time presidential contender Marine Le Pen, are itching to fill. 

    And while Macron has a solid hold on power now, the parliamentary rebellion his government faced down this week — and the chaos engulfing the country — raise ominous questions about the future for anyone who hopes to see France stay firmly anchored to the pro-EU, pro-NATO liberal camp.

    In other words, after Macron, le déluge

    Macron’s shaky platform

    The first danger sign flashing over French democracy is the state of Macron’s own party, the centrist Renaissance group. In many systems, ruling parties have deep roots and an ideological foundation that, at least in theory, give them a raison d’être beyond exercising power. 

    But this isn’t the case for Macron’s party, which was born for the sole purpose of hoisting its founder into the Elysée presidential palace and then supporting his government. As such, it’s docile by nature and, with a few exceptions, hasn’t produced bold personalities who would in other circumstances be natural successors to the president. 

    And while the party is already short of a majority in parliament, the rebellion against the pension reform this week revealed Renaissance to be much weaker even than was previously thought — more of a hollow platform for Macron to stand on than a launchpad for future leaders. Indeed, Prime Minister Borne believed that she could rely on support from the center-right Les Républicains party to provide the necessary votes to pass the reform, as part of an informal coalition arrangement.

    Yet this hope vanished suddenly and unexpectedly when a group of 19 Les Républicains, led by southern lawmaker Aurélien Pradié, defied orders from their own party leadership and announced they would support a motion of no confidence in Macron’s government. As rebellions go, it revealed not just the weakness of Renaissance, but the continued disarray of the mainstream center-right in France — which has produced most of the country’s leaders since World War II and is now a shadow of its former self.

    “The political landscape isn’t just fractured; it doesn’t offer any hope for the president, the government or their supporters,” said Jean-Daniel Lévy, a political analyst with pollster Harris Interactive. “There is no such thing as a Macron doctrine or an ideological successor to Macron.”

    The rebellion against the pension reform this week revealed President Emmanuel Macron’s party to be much weaker even than was previously thought | John Macdougall/AFP via Getty Images

    The second alarm bell ringing is how much the pension crisis has emboldened the far-right and far-left factions in parliament. Take Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a far-left firebrand who’s made two failed bids for the presidency, and is now the most recognizable face in the NUPES, a recently-formed left-wing coalition gathering what’s left of the Socialist party, Mélenchon’s hard-left France Unbowed group and the Greens.

    Having faded from view, Mélenchon has roared back into the limelight during the pension reform battle, appearing constantly in the media. Anti-NATO, Euroskeptic and calling for an end to France’s 5th republic (his 6th Republic would end the presidential monarchy), the ex-socialist whose sympathies lean more toward Venezuela than Brussels is ideally suited to produce revolutionary soundbites.

    With his pension reform, Macron has “lit a fire and blocked all the exits,” Mélenchon quipped this week.

    Le Pen eyes the crown

    Yet Mélenchon’s prospects of taking power in 2027 look slim. According to an IFOP poll published in early March, just 21 percent of the French believe he’s best-positioned to lead the opposition — suggesting he’s not very well-loved by other adherents of the NUPES coalition.

    Much better positioned is Marine Le Pen, the far-right chief whom Macron defeated twice in the final rounds of two presidential elections. Indeed, since her last defeat, Le Pen has made further strides toward making herself look presidential while continuing to try to detoxify her party’s image.

    Not only has Le Pen ditched the “National Front” party name that was associated with her Holocaust-minimizing father, Jean-Marie Le Pen; she has abandoned an electorally-disastrous plan to exit the euro currency zone and she’s established herself as the leader of her party’s 88-strong delegation in the French parliament, placing her at the center of the action against the pension reform.

    She hasn’t confirmed that she’ll make a fourth bid for the presidency. But there’s no reason to believe she wouldn’t. And this time, Macron won’t be around to stop her.

    “After Macron, it will be us,” she told BFMTV this week, referring to her National Rally party.

    Aside from Le Pen, the obvious choice to succeed Macron would be Édouard Philippe — his remarkably beloved one-time prime minister. Since leaving office in 2017, Philippe has been quietly biding his time as mayor of Le Havre, a mid-sized port city on France’s northern coast, and nurturing his own center-right political platform, Horizons.

    The fact that Philippe, in an interview earlier this month, came out to address the fact that he’s suffering both from alopecia and vitiligo only seemed to bolster his popularity with the French, who rate him as their preferred political personality, according to this ranking.

    But Philippe’s stance on retirement, backing an increase in the legal age to 67 — above and beyond what Macron proposed — has not done him any favors. According to a poll by Odoxa, 61 percent of the French weren’t happy with his attempt to defend the pension reform.

    He still hasn’t said for sure whether he will run in 2027, and the past week’s action suggests his association with Macron could turn out to be a drag on his prospects once campaigning gets started, should he decide to enter the race.

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    Nicholas Vinocur

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  • Macron narrowly survives crucial no-confidence votes in parliament

    Macron narrowly survives crucial no-confidence votes in parliament

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    PARIS — Emmanuel Macron’s government narrowly survived a no-confidence vote in the French parliament Monday, after it pushed through a deeply unpopular pensions overhaul without a vote last week, sparking outrage and spontaneous protests across the country.

    In a high-stakes vote in France’s lower house of parliament, 278 MPs, mostly from the left and the far right, voted in favor of a cross-party motion of no confidence, falling just short of the 287 votes needed to topple the government. A second motion, backed only by the far-right National Rally, did not garner enough votes.

    The outcome of the first vote was much tighter than anticipated and increases the pressure on Macron to withdraw his reform. It may also give a boost to the protest movement led by trade unions against the measures. The French president will also be under pressure to respond either by addressing the country or reshuffling his government.

    Speaking ahead of the votes, the centrist MP Charles de Courson, one of the authors of the cross-party motion, accused Macron’s government of lacking “courage” during the parliamentary debates.

    “You could have submitted [your reform] to a vote, and you probably would have lost it, but that’s the game when you are in a democracy,” he told MPs.

    The leader of Macron’s Renaissance parliamentary group Aurore Bergé lashed out at accusations the government had failed to seek compromises with MPs and accused opposition parties of working against the common good.

    “When people speak of a grand coalition, it should be so that people work together for the good of the country. It’s the opposite that you are offering us … you want to bring our country to a halt, in our institutions and … in the street,” she said.

    The motions of no confidence were proposed last week after Macron authorized the use of a controversial constitutional maneuver on Thursday to bypass a vote in parliament on his pensions reform bill. The French president wants to raise the legal age of retirement to 64 from 62, in an effort to balance the accounts of France’s indebted state pension system and to bring France’s retirement age in line with other European countries such as Spain and Germany where it ranges from 65 to 67 years old.

    The no-confidence motions were voted on in the National Assembly as industrial action disrupted flights, public transport, waste collection and refineries ahead of a nationwide day of protests on Thursday. Trade union leaders hope for a show of force against the government and have also warned that social unrest risks spiraling after several protests in Paris turned violent in recent days.

    “I send this alert to the president, he has to withdraw the bill before there’s a disaster. [Our protests] have been very controlled since the beginning, but the temptation of violence, of radicalization … is there,” said CFDT trade union leader Laurent Berger on Sunday.

    While the government has survived efforts to topple it, speculation is now running high that Macron will want to replace his beleaguered Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne in a government reshuffle aimed at refreshing his image. According to an IFOP-JDD poll published on Sunday, Macron’s popularity rating fell by 4 points in one month to 28 percent.

    A tight win for Macron

    Monday’s no-confidence motions had been widely seen as unlikely to pass ahead of the vote because the French National Assembly has been deeply divided since parliamentary elections last year. While Macron’s Renaissance party has lost its absolute majority, opposition parties backing the no-confidence motion failed to get enough votes because most MPs from the conservative Les Républicains refused to support it.

    Still, more conservative MPs than expected decided to ignore the party line and back the cross-party motion of no confidence, exposing the deep divides within Les Républicains.

    Elisabeth Borne will live to see another day as French Prime Minister | Pool photo by Gonzalo Fuentes/AFP via Getty Images

    On Monday, one of the leading rebels, conservative MP Aurélien Pradié, said voting in favor of the motion of no-confidence was needed to “emerge from the chaos.”

    “The Macron club has not understood what is going on. And if we need to jolt them with a motion of no-confidence, I will back it and lend my voice to the people who feel disdained,” he told Europe 1 radio.

    This article has been updated with more details on the votes.

    CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article misstated the number of MPs who voted in favor of a cross-party motion of no confidence.

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  • French Senate adopts pension reform as street protests continue

    French Senate adopts pension reform as street protests continue

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    The French Senate voted in favor of the controversial pension reform overnight, paving the way for a potential final adoption of the law on Thursday, as thousands of people continue to demonstrate across the country.

    The widespread opposition to the retirement overhaul is a political test to French President Emmanuel Macron, whose liberal party has been struggling to pass the reform ever since it lost its majority in parliament last summer.

    “A decisive step to bring about a reform that will ensure the future of our pensions. Totally committed to allow a final adoption in the next few days,” French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne tweeted after the vote.

    The French government wants to change the retirement age from 62 to 64, with a full pension requiring 43 years of work as of 2027. The right-leaning Senate adopted the reform with 195 in favor and 112 against the measure.

    Hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated across France on Saturday, and protests were expected to continue on Sunday. So far, strikes have disrupted sectors including public transport, oil refineries, schools and airports.

    On Sunday, Laurent Berger — who heads the largest French labor union — said: “I call on parliamentarians to see what’s happening in their districts. … You can’t vote for a reform that’s rejected by so many in the workforce.”

    During the presidential campaign, Macron vowed to reform the French pension system to bring it in line with other European countries like Spain and Germany, where the retirement age is 65 to 67 years old.

    Official forecasts show that the French pensions system is financially in balance for now, but it’s expected to build up a deficit in the longer term.

    French labor unions are calling for a “powerful day of strikes and demonstrations” on Wednesday, when lawmakers from the Senate and National Assembly are set to hold a small-group meeting to find a compromise on the pensions revamp. If they do reach an agreement, the law could be adopted on Thursday.

    The government could also ultimately decide to adopt the revamp using an exceptional procedure that requires no parliamentary vote.

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  • Day of reckoning for Macron on French pension reform

    Day of reckoning for Macron on French pension reform

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    PARIS — France is bracing for a day of severe disruptions and strikes on Thursday as trade unions and opposition parties vow to force the government to abandon French President Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions reform.

    Schools, universities and public administrations are expected to close, public transport will be severely affected and demonstrations are planned in major cities across the country.  

    “It’s going to be a [day] of hassles… It’ll be a Thursday of great disruption of public services,” warned Transport Minister Clément Beaune.

    Workers are protesting the government’s decision to raise the legal retirement age to 64 from 62. As part of the proposed overhaul, the number of years of contributions needed for a full pension will also rise faster than previously planned and will be set at 43 years from 2027.

    This is one of the biggest tests for Macron since losing outright majority in parliament in June. Macron was reelected last year on promises he would reform France’s public pension system and bring it in line with European neighbors such as Spain and Germany where the legal age of retirement is 65 to 67 years old. According to projections from France’s Council of Pensions Planning, the finances of the pensions system are balanced in the short term but will go into deficit in the long term.

    “Whatever pension projection you look at, the system will be go into the red within 15 years… it is difficult to deny the funding issues … The level of expenditure has stabilized but it’s simply higher than the revenues,” said Antoine Bozio, director of the Institute of Public Policy in Paris.  

    French polls suggest that the French are opposed to the reform but are aware of the need to overhaul state pensions. There is, however, deep disagreement on how to achieve that. Both the far-right National Rally party and the leftwing NUPES coalition staunchly oppose pushing back the age of retirement to 64 and argue that it will unfairly hit French working classes. Both groups vow to fight the government and stall debates as the pensions bill goes through parliament.

    “The Macron-Borne reform is a serious step back for French welfare,” tweeted Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-left France unbowed party — which is planning a second day of protests on Sunday.

    Macron is hoping to get the votes of the conservative Les Républicains to get the reforms passed in parliament, where he does not have absolute majority.

    In the battle to win over public opinion, French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, who unveiled the reform last week, has repeatedly maintained that the changes include several measures that benefit the poorest. The government plans to increase the minimum monthly pension by close to 10 percent to €1,200 for low-income earners, and vows to improve access to early retirement schemes for employees who work in difficult professions.

    According to Bozio, while the government’s aim is primarily to balance the books amid increased funding needs for health, education and support for businesses, there are legitimate questions over the fairness of the reform.

    “Pushing back the retirement age will not hit the poorest in France, so in that sense the reform is fair,” said Bozio referring to precarious workers who have checkered careers and often leave the workforce later at 67 years old.

    In the battle to win over public opinion, French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has repeatedly maintained that the changes include several measures that benefit the poorest | Pool photo by bertrand Guay/AFP via Getty Images

    However, lower-income groups, who start work early, will be disadvantaged compared to higher-income groups who have later careers.

    “Those hit by the reform will be qualified factory workers, less qualified office workers … Senior managers, the intellectual classes who have done long studies, will be less affected,” he said.

    There were other options on the table. In 2020, Macron’s government worked on a more balanced reform, which had the backing of one of France’s main trade unions the CFDT, but was forced to shelve it following months of strikes along with the COVID-19 pandemic which brought the country to a halt.

    France has a long history of showdowns between government-led pension reforms and the public backlash on the street in the form of mass protests and walking off the job. In his second term, Macron has settled for a less aggressive, more topical reform focused on raising the legal age of retirement in the hope that it would be easier to pass through parliament. The breadth of Thursday’s protests will be a first test of that choice.

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  • Thierry Breton: Brussels’ bulldozer digs in against US

    Thierry Breton: Brussels’ bulldozer digs in against US

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    Thierry Breton is winning the war of ideas in Brussels.

    The ex-CEO is a political whirlwind with a gigantic portfolio as internal market chief, the backing of French President Emmanuel Macron and lots of proposals. He’s been touring European Union capitals to win support for plans to shield Europe’s industry from crippling energy prices, American subsidies and “naive” EU free traders.

    France’s decades-long push for more state intervention is finally finding some echo in Berlin and the 13th floor of the Berlaymont building, occupied by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who largely owes her job to Macron.

    Omnipresent and ebullient, Breton is playing a key role in marshaling industry and political support for sweeping but so far vague plans to boost clean tech, secure key raw materials and overhaul EU checks on government support that he blasts as too slow to help companies.

    “Of course there is resistance; my job is precisely to manage and align everyone,” he told French TV this week of his January meetings with Spanish, Polish and Belgian leaders to flog a forthcoming industrial policy push that could be a turning point in how far European governments will finance companies.

    Time is short. Von der Leyen wants to line up proposals for a February summit. European industry is complaining that it can’t swallow far higher energy prices and tighter regulation for much longer, with at least one announcing a European shutdown and an Asian expansion.

    Breton said governments don’t need convincing on the need for rapid action. But he’s running up against one of Europe’s sacred cows — EU state aid rules run by Executive Vice President Margrethe Vestager that curb government support with lengthy checks to make sure companies don’t get unfair help. She’s also under intense pressure to preserve a “level playing field” as smaller countries worry about German and French financial firepower.

    The French internal market commissioner’s bullish style often sees him act as if he’s got a role in subsidies. In the fall, he sent a letter to EU countries asking them to send views on emergency state aid rules to the internal market department, which is under his supervision, two EU officials recalled. 

    In a meeting with European diplomats, a Commission representative had to correct it, the EU officials said, asking capitals to make sure the input goes instead to the competition department overseen by Vestager. 

    Europe First

    While Breton doesn’t like to be called a protectionist, his latest mission has been to protect Europe from its transatlantic friend.

    As early as September, one Commission official said, the Frenchman was mandated by Europe’s industry to speak out against U.S. President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which provides tax credits for U.S.-made electric cars and support to American battery supply chains.

    U.S President Joe Biden gives remarks during an event celebrating the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act on September 13, 2022 | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

    His Paris-backed campaign charged ahead while EU officials and diplomats tiptoed around the subject. Some within the Commission headquarters found his bad cop routine helpful in keeping pressure on the U.S. 

    “He’s been constructive, though clearly disruptive,” said Tyson Barker, head of the technology and global affairs program at the German Council of Foreign Relations.

    The Frenchman has even pitched himself as the bloc’s “sheriff” against Silicon Valley giants, warning billionaire Elon Musk that an overhaul of the Twitter social network can only go so far since “in Europe, the bird will fly by our rules.”

    “Big Tech companies only understand balances of power,” said Cédric O, a former French digital minister who worked with Breton during the French EU Council presidency. “When [Breton and Musk] see each other, it necessarily remains cordial, but Breton shows his teeth and rightly so. It’s his job.”

    Breton can even surprise his own services, according to two EU officials. In May, the Commission’s department responsible for digital policy — DG CONNECT — was caught off guard when Breton announced in the press that he would unveil plans by year-end to make sure that technology giants forked out for telecoms networks. 

    In so doing, Breton — who was CEO of France Télécom in the early 2000s — resurrected a long-dormant and fractious policy debate that had been put to rest almost a decade ago, when erstwhile Digital Commissioner Neelie Kroes ordered Europe’s telecoms operators to “adapt or die” rather than seek money from content providers.

    After Breton’s commitments, the Commission’s services were soon scrambling to develop some sort of a coherent policy program to deliver on the Frenchman’s comments. A consultation is scheduled for early this year. 

    Carte blanche

    Breton is a rare creature in the halls of the Berlaymont, where policy is hatched slowly after extensive consultation. To a former CEO with a broad remit — his portfolio runs from the expanse of space to the tiniest of microchips — rapid reaction matters more than treading on toes or singing from the hymn sheet. This often sees him floating ideas and then pulling back.

    Last year he alarmed environmentalists by raising the prospect of a U-turn on the EU’s polluting car ban. He wagged his finger at German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for a solo trip to China. He called for nuclear energy to be considered green. He has pushed out grand projects — such as industrial alliances on batteries and cloud, or a cyber shield — that he doesn’t always follow up on.

    He’s even pushed forward a multibillion-euro EU communication satellite program dubbed Iris², a favorite of French aerospace companies, that will see the bloc build a rival to Musk’s space-based Starlink broadband constellation.

    “It’s clear that he’s been given more free rein than others,” said one EU official. “He has von der Leyen’s ear,” the official added, noting that Breton enjoys “privileged access” to the Commission president — who may be mindful that she’ll need French support for a second term.

    According to an official, Breton “has von der Leyen’s ear” and enjoys “privileged access” to the Commission president | Valeria Mongeli/AFP via Getty Images

    Indeed, Breton’s massive role was partly designed as a counterweight to a German president.

    “There is a criticism of von der Leyen for being too German,” explained Sébastien Maillard, director of the Jacques Delors Institute think tank. “There may inevitably be a division of roles between them — [where Breton is] a counterbalance.”

    He’s been called an “unguided missile,” but more often than not, the Frenchman has Paris’ backing when going off script. His October op-ed with Italian colleague Paolo Gentiloni, which called for greater European financial solidarity, was part of France’s agenda, according to one high-ranking Commission official.

    “When he went out in the press with Gentiloni against Scholz’s €200 billion, he was clearly doing the job for Macron,” the official said. 

    His November call for a rethink on the 2035 car engine ban came just after a week after critical green legislation had been finalized by Commission Executive Vice President Frans Timmermans and jarred with the EU’s own position at the COP 27 climate summit in Indonesia. But it aped the position of French auto industry captains, such as Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares and Renault’s Luca de Meo, who wanted Brussels to slam the brakes on the climate drive.

    Breton had not coordinated his car comments with colleagues in advance, according to two Commission officials.

    Less than 10 days later, French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne echoed caution about the “extremely ambitious” engine ban and warned that pivoting to electric car manufacturing was daunting.

    Going A-list

    Breton acknowledged himself that he wasn’t Macron’s first choice for the critical EU post, telling POLITICO at a live event that he was a “plan B commissioner.”

    Asked if he was targeting an A-list job for the new Commission mandate in 2024, he said he “may be able to consider a new plan B assignment — if it is a plan B.”

    “He is thinking about the future,” said one EU official. “Look at his LinkedIn posts. He is thinking past the next European elections. He definitely wants to convince Macron to get an expanded portfolio.” 

    Grabbing the Commission’s top job may be tricky, relying on how EU leaders will line up, according to multiple EU and French officials. 

    There are other jobs, including overturning the unwritten law that no French or German candidate can hold the economically powerful competition portfolio. Another option could be becoming Europe’s official digital czar, combining the enforcement powers of the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act into a supranational digital enforcement agency, one EU official said.

    Breton has shrugged off speculation on his long-term plans.

    “All my life, I have been informed of my next potential job 15 minutes before,” he said last month.

    Jakob Hanke Vela, Stuart Lau, Barbara Moens, Camille Gijs and Mark Scott contributed reporting.

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  • Europe’s hot mess response to China’s COVID surge

    Europe’s hot mess response to China’s COVID surge

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    Pandemic politics is back. 

    Three years into the COVID-19 crisis, which upended lives across the globe and led the EU to promise to work better together when the next health crisis emerged, countries have once again been involved in a political tug-of-war.

    China’s decision to lift its zero-COVID policy has led to a surge in cases that has alarmed the world. But early attempts at a joint EU response were dashed when Italy announced its own border control measures on arrivals from China. 

    While the EU is now inching toward a coordinated approach on travel measures for arrivals from China — including pre-departure testing, masks on flights and testing wastewater for possible new variants — and is set to hold a meeting of its crisis response body on Wednesday, it comes after countries one-by-one announced unilateral measures for travelers arriving from China.

    “It is disappointing to me that — despite three years of pandemic — there still is not a coordinated EU united response,” said Marion Koopmans, head of the Erasmus MC’s department of viroscience. 

    So why did European unity fall at the first hurdle? Here’s what you need to know.

    What measures are in place for arrivals from China?

    Here’s a brief rundown of a fast-moving situation. Most countries have announced some form of testing, with Italy testing travelers arriving from China and isolating those that are positive. Spain is testing and carrying out temperature checks, and from Tuesday, imposing COVID certificates, and France requires negative tests before traveling from China, masks on planes and PCR tests on arrival for all passengers.

    Sweden became the latest EU country to announce plans to implement restrictions, saying Tuesday that it was “preparing to introduce travel restrictions requiring a negative COVID-19 test for entry to Sweden from China.” 

    Across the Channel, the U.K. announced Friday it would require a negative test before travel and would also be taking samples from arrivals. 

    Belgium, however, has taken a different tack, testing the wastewater from planes twice a week and sequencing the samples to search for new variants.

    All this could change on Wednesday, however, with the EU’s crisis response body meeting to discuss (finally) a coordinated response.

    A Chinese traveler leaves the arrival hall of Rome Fiumicino airport on December 29, 2022 after being tested for COVID-19 | Filippo Monteforte/AFP via Getty Images

    Why the different responses?

    There are multiple factors at play — bitter experience, fear of new variants, concerns about China’s secrecy, and good old economics.

    Italy, the first to strike out alone, has said its rules will ensure “surveillance and identification of any variants of the virus in order to protect the Italian population.” This decision seems to be driven by the psychology that Italy was hit incredibly hard by COVID-19 in 2020, said Elizabeth Kuiper, associate director and head of the social Europe and well-being program at the European Policy Centre think tank. 

    France has justified its decision by saying the government has taken “health control measures in order to ensure the protection of the French population.” As well as testing, they will also be sequencing positive test results to screen for new variants, according to the prime minister, Elisabeth Borne, potentially belying a mistrust of information coming out of China.

    Over in the U.K., the government has no qualms about saying its decision is due to the “lack of comprehensive health information shared by China.” The health ministry said that if there is an improvement in the sharing of information and greater transparency “then temporary measures will be reviewed.”

    Others have held back. For Austria, which has so far resisted pressure from countries like Italy to coalesce around bloc-wide travel measures, any restriction on China arrivals would be a massive blow. The Austrian government has said that China’s reopening “heralds the return of the most important Asian source market for the coming tourism seasons.” 

    This is “a clear example of how countries are trying to balance the economic consequences of COVID and public health concerns,” said Kuiper. 

    Didn’t EU countries agree to work together? 

    One of Europe’s key lessons from the pandemic was supposed to have been to respond collectively to health threats. It was so important to countries that the EU Health Union was established. But the disagreements over China show that the “default to knee-jerk national responses hasn’t entirely gone away,” said Paul Belcher, consultant in European public health and adviser to the European Public Health Alliance. 

    This disorderly response has raised questions over whether EU coordination has taken the right form. A central part of the EU Health Union is the Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA), which was established precisely to enable Europe to respond quickly and appropriately during a health crisis. But it sits within the European Commission rather than independently — which has tied its hands somewhat, argued the European Policy Centre’s Kuiper.

    “If HERA would have been an independent agency, they could have taken a stronger EU position concerning the need for travel restrictions for passengers coming from China,” Kuiper said. Without this leadership, countries have taken measures based on national motivations, she said. 

    Can we believe Chinese data?

    WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that in order to make a comprehensive risk assessment of the situation on the ground the WHO “needs more detailed information” | Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images

    Concerns about China’s transparency on COVID-19 are nothing new but as the country opens its borders, even the World Health Organization, which usually declines to point the finger at specific countries, has called for more information. 

    WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has said that in order to make a comprehensive risk assessment of the situation on the ground the WHO “needs more detailed information.”

    What China is doing is sharing genetic sequence data on the international database GISAID, “which is laudable,” said David Heymann, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “But they are not sharing the epidemiological data that will help understand the transmissibility and virulence that goes along with each sequence information and thus leaving a gap in our understanding,” he said.

    Meanwhile, China isn’t pleased with the global response. “Some countries have implemented entry restrictions targeting only Chinese travelers. This has no scientific basis, and some practices are unacceptable,” a spokesperson said.

    What does the science say?

    “There is no scientific consensus on what to do, whether it makes sense to test everyone at arrival or not,” said Steven Van Gucht, head of the scientific service of viral diseases at the Belgian national institute for public and animal health. “The current discussion is a mixture of the scientific debate, but it’s also political.”

    One of the major concerns is that new variants could emerge from China. Some scientists say this is unlikely as China is behind the curve on new variants. “Because China’s variants have been and gone in the rest of the world, the threat of these viruses coming back out of China and causing waves is pretty unlikely,” said virologist Tom Peacock of Imperial College, London. Initial sequencing out of Italy has indicated that there were no new COVID variants among Chinese visitors.

    Koopmans said that — based on what has been shared so far — the variants circulating in China are not so different from what’s being seen in other parts of the world, but “there are no reasons to assume they are ‘less fit.’”

    However, if a new variant did emerge, it’s unlikely travel restrictions would completely stop the spread. For Koopmans, travel restrictions “in the past have shown they are not very effective at delaying transmission of variants.”

    One way of quickly spotting the arrival of new variants without targeting individual passengers is to test wastewater from toilets on airplanes or at airports, something that European Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides has called for — and which is on the table for Wednesday’s meeting.

    Additional reporting from Barbara Moens.

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  • Unloved at home, Emmanuel Macron wants to get ‘intimate’ with the world

    Unloved at home, Emmanuel Macron wants to get ‘intimate’ with the world

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    PARIS — When French President Emmanuel Macron’s party lost its absolute majority in parliament six months ago, many wondered what the setback would mean for an ambitious, here-to-disrupt-the-status-quo leader whose first term was defined by a top-down style of management.

    It turns out Macron 2.0 is a man about globe, pitching “strategic intimacy” to world leaders, as he leaves domestic politics to his chief lieutenant and concentrates on his preferred sphere: international diplomacy.

    The Frenchman’s past “intimate” moves have been well-documented: affectionate hugging with Angela Merkel, knuckle-crunching handshakes with Donald Trump, and serial bromancing with the likes of Justin Trudeau and Rishi Sunak. Now in his second term, the French president appears to be making a move on — quite literally — the world.

    Since his reelection, Macron has been hopping from one official visit to another: in Algeria one day to restore relations with a former colony, in Bangkok another to woo Asian nations, and in Washington most recently to shore up the relationship with Washington. The globetrotting head of state has drawn criticism in the French press that he is deserting the home front.

    “He is everywhere, follows everything, but he’s mostly elsewhere,” quipped a French minister speaking anonymously.

    “[But] he’s been on the job for five years now, does he really need to follow the minutiae of every project? And the international pressure is very strong. Nothing is going well in the world,” the minister added.

    Before COVID-19 struck, Macron’s first term was marked by a brisk schedule of reforms, including a liberalization of the job market aimed at making France more competitive. The French president was hoping to continue in the same pragmatic vein during his second term, focusing on industrial policy and reforming France’s pensions system. While he hasn’t abandoned these goals, the failure to win a parliamentary majority in June has forced him to slow down on the domestic agenda.

    Foreign policy in France has always been the guarded remit of the president, but Macron is trying to flip political necessity into opportunity, delegating the tedium and messiness of French parliamentary politics to his Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne.

    There are few areas of global diplomacy where the president hasn’t pitched a French initiative in recent months — whether it’s food security in Africa, multilateralism in Asia or boosting civilian resilience in Ukraine. Despite some foreign policy missteps in his first term including the backing of strongman Khalifa Haftar in the Libyan civil war, Macron is now a veteran statesman, eagerly taking advantage of Europe’s leaderless landscape to hog the international stage.

    The French president’s full pivot to global diplomacy in his weakened second term at home is reminiscent of past leaders confronting turmoil on the domestic front.

    “The Jupiterian period is over. He’s got no majority,” said Cyrille Bret, researcher for the Jacques Delors Institute. “So now he is suffering from the Clinton-second-mandate-syndrome, who after the impeachment attempts over the Lewinsky [inquiry], turned to the international scene, trying to resolve issues in the Balkans, the Middle East and in China.”

    But even as Macron embraces the wide world, the pitfalls ahead are numerous. Photo ops with world leaders haven’t done much to slow the erosion of his approval ratings at home. With a recession looming in Europe and discontent over inflation and energy woes, Macron’s margins of maneuver are limited, and trouble at home might ultimately need his attention.

    Man about globe

    The French president first used the words “strategic intimacy” in October, when he told European leaders gathered in Prague they needed to work on “a strategic conversation” to overcome divisions and start new projects.

    If the thought of 44 European leaders cozying up wasn’t bewildering enough, Macron double-downed this month and called for “more strategic intimacy” with the U.S.

    It’s not entirely clear what kind of transatlantic liaison he was gunning for, but it certainly included a good dose of tough love. Arriving in Washington, Macron called an American multi-billion package of green subsidies “super aggressive.” (He nonetheless received red carpet treatment at the White House, with Joe Biden calling him “his friend” and even “his closer” — the man who helps him bring deals over the finish line — even if he didn’t actually obtain any concessions from the U.S. president.) 

    Some of Macron’s success in taking center stage is, of course, due to France’s historical assets: a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council, a nuclear capacity, a history of military interventions and global diplomacy.

    But for the Americans, Macron is also the last dancing partner left in a fast-emptying ballroom across the pond. The U.K. is still embroiled in its own internal affairs and has lost some influence after Brexit, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hasn’t filled the space left by Merkel’s departure.

    While Macron’s abstract and at times convoluted speeches may not be to everyone’s liking, at least he has got something to say.

    “[The Americans] are looking for someone to engage with and there’s a lack of alternatives,” said Sophia Besch, European affairs expert at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. “Macron is the last one standing. There’s his enthusiasm, and at the same time he is disruptive for a leader and not always an easy partner.”

    “He can count on some reluctant admirers in Washington for his energy,” she said.

    The French touch

    In his diplomatic endeavors, Macron likes a good surprise.

    “Emmanuel Macron doesn’t like working bottom-up, where the political link is lost,” said one French diplomat. “He enjoys surprising people and marking political coups.”

    “The [French bureaucracy] doesn’t really like that,” the diplomat added. “We prefer things that are all neat and tidy.”

    Conjuring up new ideas — such as the European Political Community — that haven’t quite filtered through the layers of bureaucracy is one of Macron’s ways of pushing the envelope. The newly christened group’s first summit was ultimately hailed as a success, having marked the return of the U.K. to a European forum and displaying the Continent’s unity in the face of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

    It’s a technique that forces the hand of other participants but sometimes undermines the credibility of his initiatives, and raises questions about what has really been confirmed. Launching the European Political Community may have been a success; announcing a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the U.S. president a couple of days before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine less so. (The summit, obviously, never took place.)

    Macron’s diplomatic frenzy has also raised speculation that he is already gunning for a top international job for when he leaves the Elysée palace. Macron cannot run for a third term, and speculation is already running high in France on what the hyperactive president will do next.

    The question at the heart of Macron’s second term is whether his attempts to be everything and everywhere — combined with his stubborn dedication to controversial ideas — is what will ultimately trip him up.

    Even as Macron’s U.S. visit was hailed a success, with him saying France and the US were “fully aligned” on Russia, he sparked controversy on his return when he told a French TV channel that Russia should be offered “security guarantees” in the event of negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine.

    “That comment fell out of the line in relation to the coordinated message from Macron and Biden, which was that nothing should be done about Ukraine without Ukraine’s [approval],” said Besch.

    Macron says he wants France to be an “exemplary” NATO member, but he still wants France to act as a “balancing power” that does not completely close the door on Russia. It’s a stance that may help France build partnerships with more neutral states across the world, but it does nothing to mend the rift with eastern EU member states.

    For the man about globe who presents himself as the champion of European interests, that’s an uncomfortable place to be in.

    When it comes to “strategic intimacy,” it’s possible to have too many partners.

    Elisa Bertholomey and Eddy Wax contributed to reporting.

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  • The awkward lunch: Macron prepares to snub Scholz in Paris

    The awkward lunch: Macron prepares to snub Scholz in Paris

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    BERLIN/PARIS — Relations are now so icy between Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, the leaders of the EU’s two economic powerhouses, that they are even struggling to agree on whether to be seen together in front of the press.

    As the French president and German chancellor prepared for a tête-à-tête in Paris on Wednesday, Berlin announced that they would make a joint appearance in front of the cameras, which is normally the driest of routine diplomatic courtesies after bilateral meetings.

    But on Tuesday evening, a statement from the French Elysée Palace contradicted the German announcement, saying there was no press conference planned.

    If confirmed, it would be quite a snub for Scholz, who’s traveling with an entire press corps to Paris, and from there continuing to Athens for another state visit. Denying a press conference to a visiting leader is a political tactic that’s generally applied to deliver a rebuke, as was recently done by Scholz when Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán visited Berlin.

    “Presumably, there has so far been a lack of contact and exchange between the respective new government teams of Scholz and Macron,” said Sandra Weeser from Germany’s liberal Free Democratic Party, who sits on the board of the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly. “So, we are certainly also at the beginning of new interpersonal political relations, for which trust must first be built.”

    The tussle over a media show is just the latest episode of a deepening row between the EU’s two biggest powers.

    In recent weeks, Scholz and Macron have clashed over how to tackle the energy crisis, how to overcome Europe’s impotence on defense and the best approach to dealing with China.

    Last week, those tensions spilled into public when a planned Franco-German Cabinet meeting in the French town of Fontainebleau was postponed to January amid major differences on the text of a joint declaration, as well as conflicting holiday plans of some German ministers. Disagreement between the two governments was also broadly visible at last week’s EU summit in Brussels.

    As Scholz and Macron meet in Paris on Wednesday for a “working lunch,” which has been hastily set up as a downgraded replacement for the scrapped Cabinet meeting, politicians and officials across Europe will be closely watching to see whether the bloc’s two heavyweights can find a way back to much-needed unity. The war in Ukraine and the inflation and energy crisis have strained European alliances, just when they are most needed.

    French officials complain that Berlin isn’t sufficiently treating them as a close partner. For example, the French claim they weren’t briefed in advance of Germany’s domestic €200 billion energy price relief package — and they have made sure their counterparts in Berlin are aware of their frustration.

    “In my talks with French parliamentarians, it has become clear that people in Paris want more and closer coordination with Germany,” said Chantal Kopf, a lawmaker from the Greens, one of the three parties in Germany’s ruling coalition, and a board member of the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly.

    “So far, this cooperation has always worked well in times of crisis — think, for example, of the recovery fund during the coronavirus crisis — and now the French also rightly want the responses to the current energy crisis, or how to deal with China, to be closely coordinated,” Kopf said.

    Late last month, Paris felt snubbed by Berlin when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz found no time to speak to French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne | Jens Schlueter/AFP via Getty Images

    A similar conclusion is being drawn by Weeser from the FDP, another coalition partner in the Berlin government. “Paris is irritated by Germany’s go-it-alone on the gas price brake and the lack of support for joint European defense technology projects,” she said. At the same time, she accused the French government of having until recently dragged its feet on a new pipeline connection between the Iberian peninsula and Northern Europe.

    Unprecedented tensions

    Most recently, the French government was irritated by the news that Scholz plans to visit Beijing next week to meet Xi Jinping in what would be the first visit by a foreign leader since the Chinese president got a norm-breaking third term. Germany and China also plan their own show when it comes to planned government consultations in January.

    The thinking at the Elysée is that it would have been better if Macron and Scholz had visited China together — and preferably a bit later rather than straight after China’s Communist Party congress where Xi secured another mandate. According to one French official, a visit shortly after the congress would “legitimize” Xi’s third term and be “too politically costly.”

    Germany and France’s uncoordinated approach to China contrasts with Xi’s last visit to Europe in 2019 when he was welcomed by Macron, who had also invited former Chancellor Angela Merkel and former European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to Paris to show European unity.

    Macron has refrained from directly criticizing a controversial Hamburg port deal with Chinese company Cosco, which Scholz is pushing ahead of his Beijing trip. But the French president last week questioned the wisdom of letting China invest in “essential infrastructure” and warned that Europe had been “naive” toward Chinese purchases in the past “because we thought Europe was an open supermarket.”

    Jean-Louis Thiériot, vice president of the defense committee in the French National Assembly, said Germany was increasingly focusing on defense in Eastern Europe at the expense of joint German-French projects. For example, Berlin inked a deal with 13 NATO members, many of them on the Northern and Eastern European flank, to jointly acquire an air and missile defense shield — much to the annoyance of France.

    “The situation is unprecedented,” Thiériot said. “Tensions are now getting worse and quickly. In the last couple of months, Germany decided to end work on the [Franco-German] Tiger helicopter, dropped joint navy patrols … And the signature of the air defense shield is a deathblow [to the defense relationship],” he said.

    Germany’s massive investment through a €100 billion military upgrade fund, as well as Scholz’s commitment to the NATO goal of putting 2 percent of GDP toward defense spending, will likely raise the annual defense budget to above €80 billion and means Berlin will be on course to outgun France’s €44 billion defense budget.

    Sick note

    Last week’s suspension of the joint Franco-German Cabinet meeting wasn’t by far the first clash between Berlin and Paris when it comes to high-level meetings.

    Back in August, the question was whether Scholz and Macron would meet in Ludwigsburg on September 9 for the 60th anniversary of a famous speech by former French President Charles de Gaulle in the palatial southwestern German town. But despite the highly symbolic nature of that ceremony, the leaders’ meeting never happened — with officials presenting conflicting accounts of why that was the case, from appointment conflicts to alleged disagreements over who should shoulder the costs.

    French President Emmanuel Macron has refrained from directly criticizing a controversial Hamburg port deal with Chinese company Cosco | Pool photo by Aurelien Morissard/AFP via Getty Images

    Late last month, Paris felt snubbed by Berlin when Scholz found no time to speak to French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne: A meeting between both leaders in Berlin had been canceled because the chancellor had tested positive for coronavirus. But several French officials told POLITICO that a subsequently arranged videoconference was also canceled, allegedly because the Germans told Borne’s office that Scholz felt too sick.

    Paris was even more surprised — and annoyed — when Scholz then appeared the same day via video at a press conference, in which he didn’t seem to be quite so sick, but instead confidently announced his €200 billion energy relief package. The French say they weren’t even briefed beforehand. A German spokesperson could not be reached for a comment on the incident.

    Yannick Bury, a lawmaker from Germany’s center-right opposition who focuses on Franco-German relations, said Scholz must use his visit to Paris to start rebuilding ties with Macron. “It’s important that France receives a clear signal that Germany has a great interest in a close and trusting exchange,” Bury said. “Trust has been broken.”

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    Hans von der Burchard and Clea Caulcutt

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