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Tag: Elections

  • Biden to mark IBM investment with Democrats in tough races

    Biden to mark IBM investment with Democrats in tough races

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    WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden is ready to celebrate a new $20 billion investment by IBM in New York’s Hudson River Valley with two House Democrats running in competitive races in next month’s critical midterm elections.

    Biden is taking part in a Thursday afternoon announcement at the IBM facility in Poughkeepsie, New York. He is expected to hold out the company’s plans as part of what the White House says is a manufacturing “boom” spurred by this summer’s passage of a $ 280 billion legislative package intended to boost the U.S. semiconductor industry and scientific research.

    Democrats facing tough midterms races have largely avoided appearing with Biden in the leadup to November’s elections. But Biden, whose approval ratings remain underwater, will be joined by two House incumbents in competitive New York races who are bucking the trend: Reps. Sean Patrick Maloney and Pat Ryan.

    “When I heard @POTUS was looking to see the benefits of the CHIPS & Science Act first-hand, I told him that the Hudson Valley was the perfect place,” Maloney wrote on Twitter on Wednesday. “I’m thrilled to host him in Poughkeepsie this week to celebrate the major wins and good-paying jobs we are delivering here in NY.”

    The CHIPS and Science Act, which Biden signed into law in August, was a rare piece of legislation for which the president was able to win bipartisan support.

    IBM’s $20 billion investment over the next decade is intended to bolster research and development and manufacturing of semiconductors, mainframe technology, artificial intelligence and quantum computing in New York’s Hudson River Valley, according to the White House.

    The IBM investment comes on the heels of chipmaker Micron announcing earlier this week an investment of up to $100 billion over the next 20-plus years to build a plant in upstate New York that could create 9,000 factory jobs.

    Maloney, chairman of the powerful Democratic congressional campaign fundraising arm, is running against Republican state Assemblyman Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th District. Ryan is up against state Assemblyman Colin Schmitt in the 18th District.

    The boundaries of most New York districts, including Maloney’s and Ryan’s, have been affected by redistricting.

    Ryan in August won a close special election to serve out the term of Democrat Antonio Delgado, who vacated his 19th District seat after he was appointed lieutenant governor by Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. Ryan is running to serve a full term in the 18th District, where he lives.

    Maloney, who had served New York’s 18th District since 2013, decided to run in the 17th District. His Hudson Valley home fell inside the new boundaries after redistricting.

    Hochul, who took office last year after Democrat Andrew Cuomo resigned amid sexual harassment allegations, is also scheduled to attend. She’s looking to win a full term in next month’s election against Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin.

    Later Thursday, Biden will head to central New Jersey for a fundraiser at the home of Gov. Phil Murphy in support of the Democratic National Committee. In the evening, he heads to Manhattan for a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee fundraiser hosted by James Murdoch, the son of conservative News Corp. publisher Rupert Murdoch.

    Murdoch and his wife, Kathryn, a climate change activist, were major donors to Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign. In 2020, Murdoch resigned from the board of News Corp. amid differences over editorial content at his father’s company, which operates The Wall Street Journal and the New York Post. The elder Murdoch is also chairman of Fox Corp., which includes Fox News Channel.

    While Biden has been kept at arms length by many Democratic candidates, he’s been a prodigious fundraiser for his party this election cycle, raising more than $19.6 million for the Democratic National Committee.

    ———

    Associated Press writers Michelle L. Price in New York City and Michael Catalini in Trenton, New Jersey, contributed to this report.

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  • OPEC and Russia slash oil production in bid to boost prices

    OPEC and Russia slash oil production in bid to boost prices

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    The OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries on Wednesday decided to sharply cut production to support sagging oil prices, a move that could deal the struggling global economy another blow and raise politically sensitive pump prices for U.S. drivers just ahead of key national elections.

    Energy ministers meeting at the Vienna headquarters of the OPEC oil cartel cut production by 2 million barrels per day starting in November at their first face-to-face meeting since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Besides a token trim in oil production last month, the major cut is an abrupt turnaround from months of restoring deep cuts made during the depths of the pandemic and could help alliance member Russia weather a looming European ban on oil imports.

    In a statement, OPEC+ said the decision was based on the “uncertainty that surrounds the global economic and oil market outlooks.”

    The impact of the production cut on oil prices — and thus the price of gasoline made from crude — will be limited somewhat because OPEC+ members are already unable to meet the quotas set by the group.

    The alliance also said it was renewing its cooperation between members of the OPEC cartel and non-members, the most significant of which is Russia. The deal was to expire at year’s end.

    Receding oil prices

    The decision comes as oil trades well below its summer peaks because of fears that major global economies such as the U.S. or Europe will sink into recession due to high inflation, rising interest rates meant to curb rising consumer prices, and uncertainty over Russia’s war against in Ukraine.

    The fall in oil prices has been a boon to U.S. drivers, who saw lower gasoline prices at the pump before costs recently started ticking up, and for President Biden as his Democratic Party gears up for congressional elections next month. Nationwide, the average price for a gallon of regular gas is $3.83, down a June peak of $5.02, according to AAA, although fuel costs have edged up in recent weeks. 

    “An average cut of 2 million barrels a day should push gasoline prices higher, but not at a pace that would bring back prices to the $5 a gallon that led to the Biden administration draining supplies from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve,” Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, said in an email.

    White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Tuesday that the U.S. would not extend releases from its strategic reserve to increase global supplies.

    Biden has tried to receive credit for falling gas prices, with administration officials highlighting a late March announcement that a million barrels a day would be released from the strategic reserve for six months. High inflation is a fundamental drag on Biden’s approval and has dampened Democrats’ chances in the midterm elections.

    Oil supply could face further cutbacks in coming months when a European ban on most Russian imports takes effect in December. A separate move by the U.S. and other members of the Group of Seven wealthy democracies to impose a price cap on Russian oil could reduce supply if Russia retaliates by refusing to ship to countries and companies that observe the cap.

    New sanctions on Russia

    The EU agreed Wednesday on new sanctions that are expected to include a price cap on Russian oil.

    Russia “will need to find new buyers for its oil when the EU embargo comes into force in early December and will presumably have to make further price concessions to do so,” analysts at Commerzbank wrote in a note. “Higher prices beforehand — boosted by production cuts elsewhere — would therefore doubtless be very welcome.”

    Dwindling prospects for a diplomatic deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program have also lowered prospects for a return of as much as 1.5 million barrels a day in Iranian oil to the market if sanctions are removed.

    Oil prices surged this summer as markets worried about the loss of Russian supplies from sanctions over the war in Ukraine, but they slipped as fears about recessions in major economies and China’s COVID-19 restrictions weighed on demand for crude.

    International benchmark Brent has sagged as low as $84 in recent days after spending most of the summer months over $100 per barrel.

    At its last meeting in September, OPEC+ reduced the amount of oil it produces by 100,000 barrels a day in October. That token cut didn’t do much to boost lower oil prices, but it put markets on notice that the group was willing to act if prices kept falling.

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  • Bosnian Serb opposition parties call for recount of ballots

    Bosnian Serb opposition parties call for recount of ballots

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    Opposition parties in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska entity have accused long-term Serb leader Milorad Dodik of fraud.

    Opposition parties in Bosnia’s Serb entity have formally called for a recount of ballots cast over the weekend during general elections, after accusing longtime Serb leader Milorad Dodik of fraud.

    The vote held in Republika Srpska (RS) should be annulled due to the discovery of “hundreds of irregularities,” said Branislav Borenovic, the leader of the conservative PDP party, outside the Central Election Commission’s headquarters in Sarajevo on Wednesday.

    With the vast majority of votes counted, Dodik appeared on the verge of clinching another term as the president of RS.

    Dodik received 48 percent of the vote, while his challenger Jelena Trivic secured 43 percent, with more than 95 percent of polling stations accounted for. A total of 617,000 citizens participated.

    After the polls closed on Sunday, Trivic claimed victory in the race, saying she enjoyed a sizeable lead that Dodik would be unable to overcome.

    But just hours later, Dodik said the preliminary results had him leading the contest, sparking accusations of fraud from the opposition.

    “I will not recognise the theft of the people’s will,” Trivic told reporters, with her party saying more than 65,000 votes had been “contaminated” by irregularities.

    In many polling stations, for example, opposition monitors were driven out by thugs before the counting was completed.

    Result lists emerged in many polling stations, according to which a conspicuously large number of votes were cast for unknown candidates and not a single vote for Trivic.

    “We will not give up until the truth emerges and justice prevails,” Borenovic said.

    The opposition SDS party has also called for a recount.

    Dodik has batted away the accusations, while saying a recount was “unrealistic”.

    “Our victory is beyond reproach,” Dodik said on Wednesday.

    Opposition representatives have called for protests to be held on Thursday in the city of Banja Luka.

    Dodik has dominated politics in the Serb part of the country for two decades. For years, he has been stoking tensions with his frequent calls for Bosnia’s Serbs to separate even further from the country’s central institutions, earning him new sanctions from the United States in January.

    Trivic, a 39-year-old professor of economics, sought to offer an alternative to Dodik by running on an anti-corruption ticket.

    The election for the presidency of the RS was one of a dizzying number of contests held over the weekend that saw a range of candidates run for posts in the Serb entity and Bosnia’s Bosniak-Croat federation.

    The Balkan state has been governed by a complicated administrative system created by the 1995 Dayton Agreement that succeeded in ending the conflict in the 1990s, but largely failed in providing a framework for the country’s political development.

    In the war’s wake, ethnic political parties have long exploited the country’s divisions in a bid to maintain power.

    The weekend’s contests saw the three established ethnic parties secure major wins.

    The lone exception was the defeat of Bakir Izetbegovic, a two-time member of the country’s tripartite president who also leads the main Bosniak party – the SDA.

    Izetbegovic was defeated by another professor, Denis Becirovic, in a double-digit landslide win.

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  • OPEC+ makes big oil cut to boost prices; pump costs may rise

    OPEC+ makes big oil cut to boost prices; pump costs may rise

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    FRANKFURT, Germany — The OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries on Wednesday decided to sharply cut production to support sagging oil prices, a move that could deal the struggling global economy another blow and raise politically sensitive pump prices for U.S. drivers just ahead of key national elections.

    Energy ministers meeting at the Vienna headquarters of the OPEC oil cartel cut production by 2 million barrels per day starting in November at their first face-to-face meeting since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Besides a token trim in oil production last month, the major cut is an abrupt turnaround from months of restoring deep cuts made during the depths of the pandemic and could help alliance member Russia weather a looming European ban on oil imports.

    In a statement, OPEC+ said the decision was based on the “uncertainty that surrounds the global economic and oil market outlooks.”

    The impact of the production cut on oil prices — and thus the price of gasoline made from crude — will be limited somewhat because OPEC+ members are already unable to meet the quotas set by the group.

    The alliance also said it was renewing its cooperation between members of the OPEC cartel and non-members, the most significant of which is Russia. The deal was to expire at year’s end.

    The decision comes as oil trades well below its summer peaks because of fears that major global economies such as the U.S. or Europe will sink into recession due to high inflation, rising interest rates meant to curb rising consumer prices, and uncertainty over Russia’s war against in Ukraine.

    The fall in oil prices has been a boon to U.S. drivers, who saw lower gasoline prices at the pump before costs recently started ticking up, and for U.S. President Joe Biden as his Democratic Party gears up for congressional elections next month.

    White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Tuesday that the U.S. would not extend releases from its strategic reserve to increase global supplies.

    Biden has tried to receive credit for gasoline prices falling from their average June peak of $5.02 — with administration officials highlighting a late March announcement that a million barrels a day would be released from the strategic reserve for six months. High inflation is a fundamental drag on Biden’s approval and has dampened Democrats’ chances in the midterm elections.

    Oil supply could face further cutbacks in coming months when a European ban on most Russian imports takes effect in December. A separate move by the U.S. and other members of the Group of Seven wealthy democracies to impose a price cap on Russian oil could reduce supply if Russia retaliates by refusing to ship to countries and companies that observe the cap.

    The EU agreed Wednesday on new sanctions that are expected to include a price cap on Russian oil.

    Russia “will need to find new buyers for its oil when the EU embargo comes into force in early December and will presumably have to make further price concessions to do so,” analysts at Commerzbank wrote in a note. “Higher prices beforehand — boosted by production cuts elsewhere — would therefore doubtless be very welcome.”

    Dwindling prospects for a diplomatic deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program have also lowered prospects for a return of as much as 1.5 million barrels a day in Iranian oil to the market if sanctions are removed.

    Oil prices surged this summer as markets worried about the loss of Russian supplies from sanctions over the war in Ukraine, but they slipped as fears about recessions in major economies and China’s COVID-19 restrictions weighed on demand for crude.

    International benchmark Brent has sagged as low as $84 in recent days after spending most of the summer months over $100 per barrel.

    At its last meeting in September, OPEC+ reduced the amount of oil it produces by 100,000 barrels a day in October. That token cut didn’t do much to boost lower oil prices, but it put markets on notice that the group was willing to act if prices kept falling.

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  • Midterm elections: Republicans regain edge over Democrats in generic ballot, scoring biggest advantage in 2 months in key indicator

    Midterm elections: Republicans regain edge over Democrats in generic ballot, scoring biggest advantage in 2 months in key indicator

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    The Republican Party has an edge again in the generic ballot, and that advantage has reached a level last seen in late July, according to a RealClearPolitics average for that closely watched indicator.

    That could be another sign that the GOP may be getting back some momentum as November’s midterm elections approach, after Democratic prospects improved during the summer.

    Republicans are now scoring 46.0% support in the RCP average of generic ballots, a percentage point ahead of Democrats at 45.0%.

    The GOP hit a 1-point edge last Wednesday, then saw a dip, but as of Tuesday was back at that level, as shown in the chart below.

    It’s not a big advantage, but it’s the best showing for Republicans in RCP’s data for generic ballots since July 28, as Democrats had the advantage for much of August and September.

    Related: If this seat flips red, Republicans will have ‘probably won a relatively comfortable House majority’

    Also read: ‘Republican control of the House is not a foregone conclusion,’ says political analyst


    RealClearPolitics

    The generic ballot refers to a poll question that asks voters which party they would support in a congressional election without naming individual candidates. Analysts tend to see it as a useful indicator.

    Other websites focused on political analysis and forecasting, such as FiveThirtyEight, still show Democrats with an edge in their data for generic ballots.

    Election Day for the midterm contests is now five weeks away. Democrats have focused their campaigns on abortion rights after the Supreme Court’s June decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, while Republicans have seized on Americans’ frustration with high inflation.

    The additional chart below is interactive and shows RCP’s data for the generic ballot over a longer time frame.

    Related: Biden to talk up Democrats’ support for abortion rights, with midterm elections now just 5 weeks away

    And see: New poll finds just 30% of Americans approve of how Biden is handling inflation

    Plus: Republicans’ chances for taking control of Senate rebound to 46%, a level last seen about 8 weeks ago

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  • What to expect from the Supreme Court’s new term

    What to expect from the Supreme Court’s new term

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    What to expect from the Supreme Court’s new term – CBS News


    Watch CBS News



    The Supreme Court is back in session for its new term. The court will look at cases involving issues such as race, voting rights, election law and LGBTQ rights. CBS News chief legal correspondent Jan Crawford joins CBS News on Red and Blue to discuss.

    Be the first to know

    Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting.


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  • Trump files $475 million defamation lawsuit against CNN

    Trump files $475 million defamation lawsuit against CNN

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    NEW YORK — Former President Donald Trump on Monday sued CNN, seeking $475 million in damages, saying the network had defamed him in an effort to short-circuit any future political campaign.

    The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, focuses primarily on the term “The Big Lie” about Trump’s false claims of widespread fraud that he says cost him the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden.

    CNN said it had no comment on the lawsuit.

    Trump repeatedly attacked CNN as president, which resonated with his conservative followers. He has similarly filed lawsuits against big tech companies with little success. His case against Twitter for knocking him off its platform following the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol insurrection was thrown out by a California judge earlier this year.

    Numerous federal and local election officials in both parties, a long list of courts, top former campaign staffers and even Trump’s own attorney general have all said there is no evidence of the election fraud he alleges.

    Trump’s lawsuit claims “The Big Lie,” a phrase with Nazi connotations, has been used in reference to him more than 7,700 times on CNN since January 2021.

    “It is intended to aggravate, scare and trigger people,” he said.

    In a statement Monday, Trump suggested that similar lawsuits would be filed against other news organizations. And he said he may also bring “appropriate action” against the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol by his supporters. The lawsuit comes as he is weighing a potential bid for the presidency in 2024.

    New CNN chief Chris Licht privately urged his news personnel in a meeting more than three months ago to refrain from using the phrase because it is too close to Democratic efforts to brand the former president, according to several published reports.

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  • Liz Truss has U-turned. Will it be enough?

    Liz Truss has U-turned. Will it be enough?

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    BIRMINGHAM, England — So in the end, Liz Truss was for turning. But the damage to her faltering administration may already have been done.

    On Monday, Truss’ Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng bowed to pressure from Conservative Party colleagues and dumped his flagship cut to the top rate of tax from 45p to 40p — a central component of last month’s so-called mini-budget.

    “We get it, and we have listened,” Kwarteng said as he announced the dramatic U-turn on Twitter.

    Later it emerged he will also bring forward an announcement on how the tax cuts will be funded, having initially insisted the public — and the markets — must wait until November 23.

    A parliamentary insurrection, which was rapidly gaining pace as MPs met for their annual party conference in Birmingham on Sunday, appears to have been quelled, for now.

    Asked if he would now support the mini-budget in parliament following the abandonment of its most controversial measure, rebel ringleader Michael Gove said: “Yeah I think so, on the basis of everything that I know. There were lots of good things that they announced … The debate over the 45p tax increase obscured that.”

    The market reaction was also mildly positive, with the bond and currency markets rallying somewhat following the announcement.

    But most MPs and delegates in Birmingham believe it will take significantly more than a single U-turn to rebuild the political and fiscal credibility of the fledgling Truss administration, with some MPs fearful a revival is already out of reach.

    “She started very poorly, and in my experience, what you see is what you get. People aren’t mysteriously really shit, and then become really good,” one senior Tory MP said. 

    Pissed-off

    While a Tory rebellion appears to have been averted for now, few MPs believe it will be the last Truss faces in the difficult weeks and months ahead.

    Even before Kwarteng’s now-infamous ‘fiscal event,’ Truss had plenty of detractors on Conservative benches. Only around a third of her own MPs backed her in the leadership contest, and after taking office she almost exclusively chose loyalists for her ministerial ranks. Those who backed her opponent Rishi Sunak were left out in the cold. 

    “Her party management has pissed people off,” the senior Tory MP quoted above said, with many of what they described as talented MPs questioning whether it was even worth backing the government in the long-term. 

    But while the “lightning rod” of the 45p tax rate had now been “neutralized,” according to one minister, backbenchers could soon find another hot topic and “push on that next.”

    Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng | Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

    Two potential major flashpoints will be the new government’s approach to welfare payments, and funding public services. Ministers are currently undecided over whether to uprate benefits in line with inflation — as pledged by Boris Johnson’s administration — while also dropping heavy hints that cuts to the state are on their way. 

    The opposition Labour Party, now surging ahead in the polls, see political capital too in Truss’ stated plans to lift the cap on bankers’ bonuses and abandon a hike to corporation tax.

    “They’ve still got a totally unfunded £17 billion [corporation] tax giveaway for the wealthiest businesses at a time when people and businesses are struggling with the cost of living.” one Labour official said, in a taste of the messaging Tory MPs will likely be up against at the next election.

    Few Tory MPs are optimistic Truss can turn things around.

    “Politics works as a pendulum. If it swings towards the middle it’s possible to pull it back. But if it swings too far it can become irreversible,” the minister quoted above said.

    Writing for POLITICO, Boris Johnson’s former No. 10 comms chief Lee Cain said it was “unlikely” Truss’ reputation would ever recover.

    “It didn’t need to be this way,” he wrote. “Many of the unforced errors could have been avoided if the PM had understood how to talk to the audience that matters most — the electorate.:

    Benefit of the doubt

    But voters may yet be more forgiving than some of Truss’ critics in the party, according to pollsters and focus group experts keeping a close eye on public opinion.

    “We consistently find voters don’t mind a U-turn on an unpopular policy,” said Luke Tryl, director of the More in Common consultancy, which regularly hosts focus groups across the country.

    “In fact one of the things we found during the leadership contest was that people quite liked the fact that Liz Truss changed her mind, because they felt that’s what normal people do,” he said.

    But he cautioned that while voters don’t mind U-turns as one-offs, “a series of them starts to look chaotic and will worry voters about whether the government knows what it is doing to see the country through the turmoil.”  

    Fiscal credibility

    Crucially, reversing just £2 billion of the proposed £45 billion of unfunded tax cuts seems insufficient, in isolation, to restore trust in the U.K. economy and bring down spiraling interest rates.

    “When market trust has been shattered, as we saw last week, the uphill task of restoring credibility is extremely hard and even harder when strategies shift,” Charles Hepworth, investment director at GAM, said.

    “The market currently has little faith that the prime minister and chancellor can restore credibility in the short term, and this puts further renewed pressure on U.K. risk assets.”

    Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors, agreed the U-turn would not solve the turmoil in financial markets.

    “High inflation and high interest rates are not going away quickly, and economic growth is under severe threat,” he said.

    “Markets still need to hear how the package will be funded,” added Iain Anderson, executive chairman at H/Advisers Cicero, who said the next fiscal statement planned for November 23 must be brought forward as a matter of urgency. 

    The first senior Tory MP quoted above lamented that the market turmoil following the mini-budget meant the Tory party would now “own interest rate rises — a lot of which were going to happen anyway.” 

    “I cannot remember in my life when any politician has recovered from such a savage self-inflicted wound,” Giles Wilkes, a senior fellow at the Institute for Government and partner at Flint Global, said. 

    “Gordon Brown recovered somewhat from the multiple slip-ups of 2007-08 with his commanding response to the global financial crisis, but even that wasn’t enough.”

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    Annabelle Dickson, Esther Webber and Emilio Casalicchio

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  • Bolsonaro, Lula start fight for support before Brazil runoff

    Bolsonaro, Lula start fight for support before Brazil runoff

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    RIO DE JANEIRO — Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, two diametrically opposed candidates for Brazil’s presidency, have started a four-week race to pursue votes ahead of a winner-take-all runoff.

    After garnering more than 90% of the vote in Sunday’s first round, leaving their competitors far behind, incumbent President Bolsonaro and ex-President da Silva are already eyeing options that can push them over the top, whether political alliances or endorsements from candidates now eliminated.

    Political analysts say Bolsonaro will seek to capitalize on an unexpectedly strong showing by the right wing as a whole to shore up support from politicians seeking advantageous alliances while da Silva — who won the first-round vote — reaches out to moderates.

    The election will determine whether a leftist returns to the helm of the world’s fourth-largest democracy or whether Bolsonaro can advance his far-right agenda for another term.

    Many polls had indicated leftist da Silva had a significant lead, with some suggesting he could even clinch a first-round victory. Most showed margins that neared or exceeded double digits. But Bolsonaro came within just five points of da Silva, forcing an Oct. 30 runoff.

    While da Silva’s tally of 48.4% of the vote was within most polls’ margins of error, Bolsonaro’s 43.2% far exceeded most of them. The president’s allies running for Congress and governorships also outperformed polls.

    “The far-right has shown great resilience in the presidential and in the state races,” said Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo.

    Speaking after the results, da Silva said he was excited to have a few more weeks of campaigning and the opportunity to go face-to-face with Bolsonaro and “make comparisons between the Brazil he built with the Brazil we built during our administrations.”

    “I always thought that we were going to win these elections. And I tell you that we are going to win this election. This, for us, is just an extension,” da Silva said.

    Meanwhile, Bolsonaro seemed to appeal to poorer voters, who make up a significant chunk of da Silva’s base. He highlighted high inflation that has boosted the cost of food and has hurt the approval ratings of leaders worldwide.

    “I understand there is a desire from the population for change, but some changes can be for the worse” he said. Bolsonaro added that he wanted to keep Brazil from adopting leftist economic policies that would put it on a troubled economic path similar to those of Argentina and Venezuela.

    It still isn’t clear why polls missed the mark on support for Bolsonaro and right-wing candidates.

    Some analysts suggest voters had been embarrassed to tell pollsters they backed Bolsonaro and instead listed another candidate, said Arilton Freres, director of Curitiba-based Instituto Opinião. “But that in itself doesn’t explain everything,” he added, saying outdated census data also may have had an impact on the design of the polls.

    Bolsonaro and allies have repeatedly cast doubt on the polls, and pointed instead great turnouts at his street rallies. “Many people were carried away by the lies propagated by the research institutes,” Bolsonaro wrote Monday on his Twitter profile.

    The right’s positive night extended to races for congressional seats and governorships, especially candidates with Bolsonaro’s blessing.

    Bolsonaro said his party’s showing could bring fresh endorsements ahead of the runoff as other parties strike alliances in exchange for support. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party will surpass da Silva’s Workers’ Party to become the biggest in the Senate and the Lower House, with a total of 112 seats, or 23 more than its main rival — though still are short of what is needed to pass legislation by itself.

    The right’s stronger-than-expected showing in Brazil’s populous southeast especially could benefit Bolsonaro, analysts say. His former infrastructure minister topped the race to govern Sao Paulo and will go to a runoff. The governor of Rio de Janeiro, an ally, won reelection outright, and the governor of the second most populous state, Minas Gerais, indicated he will endorse Bolsonaro in a video message Monday afternoon.

    Meanwhile, da Silva’s campaign is likely to focus on winning over the centrist vote, especially in Brazil’s most populous state, Sao Paulo, where da Silva’s politically moderate running mate, Geraldo Alckmin, is a former governor, independent political analyst Thomas Traumann said.

    Bolsonaro has expressed no interest in bringing defeated presidential candidates to his side, while da Silva has said he already reached out to competitors, who garnered about 8% of the vote combined. Analysts say there was a last-minute migration of votes from some of those candidates to Bolsonaro.

    Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes, the third- and fourth-place finishers, together earned 8.5 million votes. The difference between Bolsonaro and da Silva in the first round amounted to 6.1 million votes, and more than 30 million people abstained.

    Before the election, Tebet hinted she might urge her backers to vote for da Silva and in televised debates, she vehemently criticized Bolsonaro’s four years in office. After results came out on Sunday, she gave her coalition of political parties 48 hours to clarify who it will back, saying after that deadline she will make her own position public.

    Center-left Gomes was a minister in da Silva’s government before breaking with him, and in 2018 became openly hostile. That would make a possible endorsement more awkward, despite their ideological common ground, said Marco Antônio Teixeira, a public administration professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a university in Sao Paulo.

    “I want to make something clear: Lula is the favorite, period. As the momentum is Bolsonaro’s, people forget that,” Traumann said.

    Even if da Silva does come out on top, his administration will face tough opposition in Congress, according to Rey.

    “Part of the big centrist bloc will be Bolsonarista, although we don’t yet to what extent,” she said. “And Lula will have to deal with this.”

    ———

    Bridi reported from Brasilia. AP writers Mauricio Savarese, Daniel Politi and David Biller reported from Sao Paulo, Curitiba and Rio de Janeiro.

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  • FACT FOCUS: Gaping holes in the claim of 2K ballot ‘mules’

    FACT FOCUS: Gaping holes in the claim of 2K ballot ‘mules’

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    A film debuting in over 270 theaters across the United States this week uses a flawed analysis of cellphone location data and ballot drop box surveillance footage to cast doubt on the results of the 2020 presidential election nearly 18 months after it ended.

    Praised by former President Donald Trump as exposing “great election fraud,” the movie, called “2000 Mules,” paints an ominous picture suggesting Democrat-aligned ballot “mules” were supposedly paid to illegally collect and drop off ballots in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    But that’s based on faulty assumptions, anonymous accounts and improper analysis of cellphone location data, which is not precise enough to confirm that somebody deposited a ballot into a drop box, according to experts.

    The movie was produced by conservative filmmaker Dinesh D’Souza and uses research from the Texas-based nonprofit True the Vote, which has spent months lobbying states to use its findings to change voting laws. Neither responded to a request for comment.

    Here’s a closer look at the facts.

    CLAIM: At least 2,000 “mules” were paid to illegally collect ballots and deliver them to drop boxes in key swing states ahead of the 2020 presidential election.

    THE FACTS: True the Vote didn’t prove this. The finding is based on false assumptions about the precision of cellphone tracking data and the reasons that someone might drop off multiple ballots, according to experts.

    “Ballot harvesting” is a pejorative term for dropping off completed ballots for people besides yourself. The practice is legal in several states but largely illegal in the states True the Vote focused on, with some exceptions for family, household members and people with disabilities.

    True the Vote has said it found some 2,000 ballot harvesters by purchasing $2 million worth of anonymized cellphone geolocation data — the “pings” that track a person’s location based on app activity — in various swing counties across five states. Then, by drawing a virtual boundary around a county’s ballot drop boxes and various unnamed nonprofits, it identified cellphones that repeatedly went near both ahead of the 2020 election.

    If a cellphone went near a drop box more than 10 times and a nonprofit more than five times from Oct. 1 to Election Day, True the Vote assumed its owner was a “mule” — its name for someone engaged in an illegal ballot collection scheme in cahoots with a nonprofit.

    The group’s claims of a paid ballot harvesting scheme are supported in the film only by one unidentified whistleblower said to be from San Luis, Arizona, who said she saw people picking up what she “assumed” to be payments for ballot collection. The film contains no evidence of such payments in other states in 2020.

    Plus, experts say cellphone location data, even at its most advanced, can only reliably track a smartphone within a few meters — not close enough to know whether someone actually dropped off a ballot or just walked or drove nearby.

    “You could use cellular evidence to say this person was in that area, but to say they were at the ballot box, you’re stretching it a lot,” said Aaron Striegel, a professor of computer science and engineering at the University of Notre Dame. “There’s always a pretty healthy amount of uncertainty that comes with this.”

    What’s more, ballot drop boxes are often intentionally placed in busy areas, such as college campuses, libraries, government buildings and apartment complexes — increasing the likelihood that innocent citizens got caught in the group’s dragnet, Striegel said.

    Similarly, there are plenty of legitimate reasons why someone might be visiting both a nonprofit’s office and one of those busy areas. Delivery drivers, postal workers, cab drivers, poll workers and elected officials all have legitimate reasons to cross paths with numerous drop boxes or nonprofits in a given day.

    True the Vote has said it filtered out people whose “pattern of life” before the election season included frequenting nonprofit and drop box locations. But that strategy wouldn’t filter out election workers who spend more time at drop boxes during the election season, cab drivers whose daily paths don’t follow a pattern, or people whose routines recently changed.

    In some states, in an attempt to bolster its claims, True the Vote also highlighted drop box surveillance footage that showed voters depositing multiple ballots into the boxes. However, there was no way to tell whether those voters were the same people as the ones whose cellphones were anonymously tracked.

    A video of a voter dropping off a stack of ballots at a drop box is not itself proof of any wrongdoing, since most states have legal exceptions that let people drop off ballots on behalf of family members and household members.

    For example, Larry Campbell, a voter in Michigan who was not featured in the film, told The Associated Press he legally dropped off six ballots in a local drop box in 2020 — one for himself, his wife, and his four adult children. And in Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger’s office investigated one of the surveillance videos circulated by True the Vote and said it found the man was dropping off ballots for himself and his family.

    ___

    CLAIM: In Philadelphia alone, True the Vote identified 1,155 “mules” who illegally collected and dropped off ballots for money.

    THE FACTS: No, it didn’t. The group hasn’t offered any evidence of any sort of paid ballot harvesting scheme in Philadelphia. And True the Vote did not get surveillance footage of drop boxes in Philadelphia, so the group based this claim solely on cellphone location data, its researcher Gregg Phillips said in March in testimony to Pennsylvania state senators.

    Pennsylvania state Sen. Sharif Street, who was there for the group’s testimony in March, told the AP he was confident he was counted as several of the group’s 1,155 anonymous “mules,” even though he didn’t deposit anything into a drop box in that time period.

    Street said he based his assessment on the fact that he carries a cellphone, a watch with a cellular connection, a tablet with a cellular connection and a mobile hotspot — four devices whose locations can be tracked by private companies. He also said he typically travels with a staffer who carries two devices, bringing the total on his person to six.

    During the 2020 election season, Street said, he brought those devices on trips to nonprofit offices and drop box rallies. He also drove by one drop box up to seven or eight times a day when traveling between his two political offices.

    “I did no ballot stuffing, but over the course of time, I literally probably account for hundreds and hundreds of their unique visits, even though I’m a single actor in a single vehicle moving back and forth in my ordinary course of business,” Street said.

    City election commission spokesman Nick Custodio said the allegations matched others that had been debunked or disproven after the 2020 election.

    “The Trump campaign and others filed an unprecedented litany of cases challenging Philadelphia’s election with dubious and unsubstantiated allegations of fraud, all of which were quickly and resoundingly rejected by both state and federal courts,” Custodio said.

    ___

    CLAIM: Some of the “mules” True the Vote identified in Georgia were also geolocated at violent antifa riots in Atlanta in the summer of 2020, showing they were violent far left actors.

    THE FACTS: Setting aside the fact that the film doesn’t prove these individuals were collecting ballots at all, it also can’t prove their political affiliations.

    The anonymized data True the Vote tracked doesn’t explain why someone might have been present at a protest demanding justice for Black deaths at the hands of police officers. The individuals who were tracked there could have been violent rioters, but they also could have been peaceful protesters, police or firefighters responding to the protests, or business owners in the area.

    ___

    CLAIM: Alleged ballot harvesters were captured on surveillance video wearing gloves because they didn’t want to leave their fingerprints on the ballots.

    THE FACTS: This is pure speculation. It ignores far more likely reasons for glove-wearing in the fall and winter of 2020 — cold weather or COVID-19.

    True the Vote’s researcher claimed in the movie that voters in Georgia started wearing gloves to prevent their fingerprints from touching ballot envelopes after two women in Yuma, Arizona, were indicted on Dec. 23, 2020 for alleged ballot harvesting in that state’s primary election. But the Arizona indictment didn’t mention anything about fingerprints.

    Voting in Georgia’s Jan. 5, 2021, Senate runoff election occurred during some of the coldest weeks of the year in the state, and when COVID-19 was surging.

    In fact, the AP in 2020 documented multipleexamples of COVID-cautious voters wearing latex gloves and other personal protective equipment to vote.

    In a similarly speculative allegation, the film claims its supposed “mules” took photographs of ballots before they dropped them into drop boxes in order to get paid. But across the U.S., voters frequently take photos of their ballot envelopes before submitting them.

    ___

    CLAIM: If it weren’t for this ballot collection scheme, former President Donald Trump would have had enough votes to win the 2020 election.

    THE FACTS: This alleged scheme has not been proven, nor do these researchers have any way of knowing whether any ballots that were collected contained votes for Trump or for Biden.

    There’s no evidence a massive ballot harvesting scheme dumped a large amount of votes for one candidate into drop boxes, and if there were, it would likely be caught quickly, according to Derek Muller, a law professor at the University of Iowa.

    “Once you get just a few people involved, people start to reveal the scheme because it unravels pretty quickly,” he said.

    Absentee ballots are also verified by signature and tracked closely, often with an option for voters themselves to see where their ballot is at any given time. That process safeguards against anyone who tries to illegally cast extra ballots, according to Barry Burden, a University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor and the director of the Elections Research Project.

    “It seems impossible in that system for a nefarious actor to dump lots of ballots that were never requested by voters and were never issued by election officials,” Burden said.

    ___

    This is part of AP’s effort to address widely shared misinformation, including work with outside companies and organizations to add factual context to misleading content that is circulating online. Learn more about fact-checking at AP.

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  • FACT FOCUS: Wisconsin mobile voting truck claims scrutinized

    FACT FOCUS: Wisconsin mobile voting truck claims scrutinized

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    MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Two years ago, the city of Racine became the first — and only — municipality in Wisconsin to purchase a mobile voting truck.

    City Clerk Tara McMenamin said she pushed for the truck because it was too difficult to set up equipment at remote sites for early in-person voting. The city used the truck for the first time for municipal elections this past spring. No one seemed to pay any attention.

    But with a slate of hot races on the battleground state’s Aug. 9 fall primary ballot, including GOP primaries for governor, attorney general and secretary of state, conservatives online have in recent days raised questions about the truck, asking how such an operation can be legal and accusing Democrats of using the truck to cheat.

    Here’s a closer look at some of their claims:

    CLAIM: Racine has been using multiple mobile voting vans since June 2021.

    THE FACTS: There’s only one truck, and it wasn’t used until this year. The Common Council approved funding for one truck to serve as a movable early voting site in June 2020. The city used it for the first time in the state’s spring primary this past February, McMenamin said.

    ___

    CLAIM: The city bought the truck using “Zuckerbucks” from the nonprofit Center for Tech and Civic Life.

    THE FACTS: It’s correct that the truck was purchased using money from the Center for Tech and Civic Life, according to Racine Mayor Cory Mason’s chief of staff, Shannon Powell. The nonprofit seeks to help election officials update technology and to increase civic participation and got a $350 million donation in 2020 from Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and his wife.

    Wisconsin’s five largest cities all received CTCL grants in 2020. Racine was one of them, accepting almost $950,000.

    Some conservatives have derided the CTCL grants as “Zuckerbucks” and called them election bribery, saying they tilted the 2020 presidential election toward Democrat Joe Biden. But judges have rejected legal challenges to the grants.

    ___

    CLAIM: The truck has been functioning as an absentee ballot drop box in defiance of a state Supreme Court ruling in July outlawing them.

    THE FACTS: No, it hasn’t. McMenamin said the truck is used only to facilitate early in-person voting during the two weeks prior to an election as per state law. She wanted the truck because it was becoming too cumbersome for her staff to set up their equipment in remote polling sites.

    The city posts notices at City Hall, online and in the Racine Journal Times newspaper of the truck’s planned stops, meeting a requirement in state law that municipalities give public notice of the times and locations of early in-person voting sites, McMenamin said. Often the truck parks outside of buildings that have traditionally been used as early voting sites such as community centers, she said. Using the truck allows voting at the site without interrupting functions within the building, she said.

    People can walk up to the truck, register to vote if they haven’t done so, vote in one of the truck’s five built-in booths and hand their ballot to a city staff member manning the vehicle, she said. The ballots are then secured in a locked container. People can turn in absentee ballots at the truck, just as they’re allowed to do at brick-and-mortar early voting sites, but the truck doesn’t have a slit for a drop box and isn’t available 24 hours a day like a drop box, McMenamin said.

    ___

    CLAIM: The city doesn’t allow Republican observers in the truck, enabling Democrats to cheat.

    THE FACTS: False. McMenamin said state law allows observers to watch in-person early voting, so observers are allowed in the truck. She said GOP observers have been in the truck since the fall primary early in-person voting window opened July 26th.

    “It would be exactly the same as if it was in the brick and mortar (early voting site),” she said. “(I would tell) people who are more skeptical of the process, this follows state law.”

    If election observers feel they’ve been unjustly barred or thrown out of an early voting site, they can file a complaint with the Wisconsin Elections Commission.

    Some online blogs claimed Democrats were staffing the truck and would cast “phony ballots” from it. But the truck is staffed by city election officials and has the same rules as any other early voting site.

    ___

    This is part of AP’s effort to address widely shared misinformation, including work with outside companies and organizations to add factual context to misleading content that is circulating online. Learn more about fact-checking at AP.

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  • Supreme Court’s new term brings fresh opportunity for conservative majority to flex its muscle

    Supreme Court’s new term brings fresh opportunity for conservative majority to flex its muscle

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    Washington — The Supreme Court is set to gather Monday to kick off its new nine-month term, one that is expected to bring another round of divisive decisions on hot-button issues like affirmative action, voting rights, elections and LGBTQ discrimination, cases that could showcase the power of the court’s six-justice conservative majority.

    But as the justices prepare to take the bench — before members of the public for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic — the court is also confronting historically low levels of public confidence, which plummeted before and after the June decision unwinding the constitutional right to an abortion.

    The high court’s last term offered no shortage of blockbuster rulings expanding gun rightsreversing Roe v.  Wade, curtailing the Environmental Protection Agency’s power to combat climate change and protecting religious freedom, and the justices are hardly steering away from politically charged cases.

    Already on the docket is a challenge to race-conscious admissions policies at selective universities, a dispute pitting the free speech rights of a website designer against anti-discrimination protections for LGBTQ people and an elections dispute that could limit state courts’ authority to review elections rules approved by state legislatures under state constitutions.

    “I don’t think it’s going to be a sleepy sort of Supreme Court term,” Allison Orr Larsen, a professor at William & Mary Law School, told CBS News. “The cases they’ve taken are ideologically charged, and there’s probably going to be even more divisive questions they have to answer about the Second Amendment and abortion fights all in the wake of their big decisions last term. There’s no evidence yet that this court is going to pump the brakes on deciding high-profile, divisive issues anytime soon.”

    The justices have also been asked to weigh in on disputes over the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ ban on bump stocks for firearms, a Florida law regulating how social media companies moderate their content and whether the unborn are entitled to constitutional protections. The cases the court decides not to hear could be illuminating as to whether the conservative justices want to maintain their fast pace of reshaping the law.

    “One question will be whether there is any feeling on the court that after Dobbs, they need to cool the temperature down somewhat, and that may either be in the decisions they make or the cases they may take,” said Sean Marotta, an appellate attorney at Hogan Lovells. “Restraint may be not in the cases they decide, but in the cases they decide not to decide.”

    Affirmative action

    Among the most closely watched legal battles the justices will hear is a pair of cases challenging the race-conscious admissions policies at Harvard College, a private school, and the University of North Carolina, a public institution, which are set to be argued Oct. 31.

    The Students for Fair Admissions, the organization that brought the suit, argues the schools violate the 14th Amendment and federal law through their admissions programs, which have been used to foster diversity among university student bodies.

    Students for Fair Admissions is asking the justices to scrap its 2003 decision in Grutter v. Bollinger, which upheld the use of race as a factor in student admissions by the University of Michigan Law School.

    Court watchers expect the Supreme Court to overturn its nearly 20-year ruling, particularly given that the membership of the court has changed since its 2016 decision in the case Fisher v. University of Texas, when the court last said race-conscious admissions programs are legal.

    “Chief Justice Roberts, his vote is not really in question on race-based affirmative action. The majority of times, he’s been a skeptic of race-based affirmative action and there’s no surprises there,” Larsen said. “I can’t count to five in any way that would preserve Grutter or Fisher. I think the safe bet is that those cases will be overturned.”

    The court in January consolidated the two cases for oral argument, but unlinked them in July after Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was confirmed, as she recused herself from the dispute involving Harvard due to her role on the school’s Board of Overseers. Jackson can participate in the consideration of the University of North Carolina case.

    Devon Westhill, president and general counsel for the Center for Equal Opportunity, said he believes it’s important for Jackson, the first Black woman to serve on the court, to express her views on race-consciousness in American life.

    “I do think as we continue to think about concerns about the legitimacy of the court, that it would be really a black mark on the court if the first Black female just didn’t have an opportunity to weigh in on a major race issue like affirmative action,” he said during a preview of the court’s term hosted by the Federalist Society.

    A clash of free speech and LGBTQ rights

    The justices will also consider whether anti-discrimination laws protecting LGBTQ people can require a business owner to express a message they don’t wish to convey under the First Amendment.

    The case, which involves a website designer in Colorado, comes four years after the justices heard a similar dispute involving a Colorado baker who declined to make a cake for a same-sex wedding. But in its 2018 decision, the justices left unaddressed the central free speech issues.

    “Those big First Amendment questions are now back up before the court, but before a new court,” said Amanda Shanor, an assistant professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania who focuses on constitutional law, during the Federalist Society preview. 

    The case, 303 Creative v. Elenis, “bears both on the scope of speech protections and economic life, particularly for business owners, but also the degree to which businesses can refuse to serve customers,” she said.

    The website designer involved in the dispute, Lorie Smith, does not want to design websites for same-sex weddings, and she asked a federal court in Colorado not to enforce the the state’s anti-discrimination law against her. The lower courts, however, sided with the state. 

    While Shanor said there’s “good money” on the Supreme Court ruling in favor of Smith, the details of the decision will be key. 

    “How it does so, or if it does so, may have enormous implications for expressive and associational rights in other economic settings and for other anti-discrimination laws more broadly,” she said. “And part of the question is how on earth are you going to cabin such an exception?”

    Elections and voting rights

    In their first week of oral arguments, the court will hear a Voting Rights Act dispute involving Alabama’s Republican-drawn congressional map, which a lower court said violated the 1965 law by having a single district where Black voters make up a majority of the district.

    Then, in the coming weeks, it will consider an election law dispute from North Carolina that involves the congressional map created by a state court for the 2022 midterm elections. That legal fight invokes the so-called independent state legislature theory, which says that under the U.S. Constitution, only the state legislature has the authority to set federal election rules, ousting oversight from state courts to ensure they comply with state constitutions.

    A version of the theory was proposed by then-Chief Justice William Rehnquist in his concurring opinion in the 2000 case Bush v. Gore, and four of the current justices — Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh — wrote or joined opinions in March that said the Supreme Court will soon have to address the extent of state courts’ authority to review elections rules adopted by state legislatures.

    The case has attracted the attention of a wide range of voting groups, among them the Conference of Chief Justices, an organization composed of the country’s highest judicial officers.

    In a friend-of-the-court brief filed in support of neither party, the group told the Supreme Court that the U.S. Constitution “does not derogate from state courts’ authority to decide what state election law is, including whether it comports with state and U.S. Constitutions.”

    A new term begins with a new justice

    Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson
    Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson

    AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta


    In addition to launching its new term, the justices are also welcoming a new member with the addition of Jackson, who replaced now-retired Justice Stephen Breyer.

    Jackson’s appointment is historic, as she is the first Black woman to serve on the high court, and she also brings the Supreme Court closer to gender parity.

    While she doesn’t alter the court’s ideological composition — Republican-appointed justices still hold six of the nine seats — she does offer a new vantage point given her eight years as a federal judge on the trial court in Washington.

    “That perspective can be really valuable — the types of tests that the court is going to announce or amount of deference it gives on questions of facts, or the willingness to leave questions open, those are more subtle issues, but I suspect she will care a lot about them,” Larsen said. “In the conference room, it can make a difference to have a colleague say, ‘I have real-world experience on the trial court and here’s the practical implications of what you’re about to decide.'”

    Marotta, meanwhile, noted that as the court’s makeup has changed and its ideological leanings shifted rightward, fueled by former President Donald Trump’s appointment of three members, discussions about its center have shifted from the swing justice to the median justice.

    “The incrementalists don’t have the majority they once did. A lot of it is eyes on Justices Kavanaugh and Barrett, because they get to decide how much they lay on the gas,” he said. “In some cases, they’re willing to be more incrementalist and more cautious, and in others, they’re more in favor of change.”

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  • Black representation in Alabama tested before Supreme Court

    Black representation in Alabama tested before Supreme Court

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    MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) — The invisible line dividing two of Alabama’s congressional districts slices through Montgomery, near iconic sites from the civil rights movement as well as ones more personal to Evan Milligan.

    There’s the house where his grandfather loaded people into his station wagon and drove them to their jobs during the Montgomery Bus Boycott as Black residents spurned city buses to protest segregation. It’s the same home where his mother lived as a child, just yards from a whites-only park and zoo she was not allowed to enter.

    The spot downtown where Rosa Parks was arrested, igniting the boycott, sits on one side of the dividing line while the church pastored by the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., who led the protests, sits on the other.

    The lines are at the center of a high-stakes redistricting case bearing Milligan’s name that will go before the U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday, setting up a new test of the Voting Rights Act and the role of race in drawing congressional boundaries.

    At the center of the case is a challenge by various groups arguing that the state violated the federal Voting Rights Act by diluting the political power of Black voters when it failed to create a second district in which they make up a majority, or close to it. African Americans account for about 27% of the state’s population but are the majority in just one of the state’s seven congressional districts.

    “Our congressional map is not reflective of the population that lives in Alabama,” said Milligan, 41, one of several voters who joined interest groups in filing the lawsuit.

    The case the Supreme Court will take up Tuesday centers on whether congressional districts in Alabama were drawn to reduce the political influence of Black voters, but it’s also part of a much broader problem that undermines representative government in the U.S. Both major political parties have practiced gerrymandering — drawing congressional and state legislative boundaries to cement their hold on power — but Republicans have been in control of the process in far more states since after the 2010 elections. That has allowed them to win an outsized share of statehouse and U.S. House seats and means GOP policies — including on abortion restrictions — often don’t reflect the will of most voters.

    An Associated Press analysis from 2017 showed that Alabama had one of the most gerrymandered congressional maps in the country.

    Republicans dominate elected office in Alabama and are in charge of redistricting. They have been resistant to creating a second district with a Democratic-leaning Black majority that could send another Democrat to Congress.

    A three-judge panel that included two appointees of President Donald Trump ruled unanimously in January that the Alabama Legislature likely violated the Voting Rights Act with the map. “Black voters have less opportunity than other Alabamians to elect candidates of their choice to Congress,” the panel said.

    The judges ordered state lawmakers to draw new lines for this year’s election and create a second district where Black voters either made up a majority or near majority of the population. But on a 5-4 vote in February, the Supreme Court sided with Alabama to allow this year’s congressional elections to take place without adding a second predominantly Black district. Two justices suggested it was too close to spring primaries to make a change.

    The lawsuit claims the Alabama congressional map dilutes the voting strength of Black residents by packing a large number of them into a single district — the 7th, where 55% of voters are Black — while fragmenting other communities. That includes the state’s Black Belt region and the city of Montgomery.

    The current districts leave the vast majority of Black voters with no realistic chance to elect their preferred congressional candidates anywhere outside the 7th district, the lawsuit contends.

    “This is just about getting Black voters, finally, in Alabama the opportunity to elect their candidates of choice. It’s not necessarily guaranteeing that they will have their candidate elected,” said Deuel Ross, senior counsel at the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund, which is representing the plaintiffs.

    The groups contend that the state’s Black population is large enough and geographically compact enough to create a second district. Milligan, who is six generations removed from enslaved ancestors who lived in the Black Belt, ticked off the consequences for Black residents who are not able to have representation that aligns with their needs: addressing generational poverty, the lack of adequate internet service, Medicaid expansion and the desire for a broader array of health care services.

    “In choosing not to do that, you’re denying the people of the Black Belt the opportunity to elect an additional person that can really go to the mat on their interests,” said Ross, who is one of the attorneys who will argue the case in a challenge backed by the Biden administration.

    ___

    African Americans served in Alabama’s congressional delegation following the Civil War in the period known as Reconstruction. They did not return until 1993, a year after the courts ordered the state to reconfigure the 7th Congressional District into a majority-Black one, which has since been held by a succession of Black Democrats. That 1992 map remains the basis for the one in use today.

    “Under numerous court challenges, the courts have approved this basic plan. All we did is adjust it for population deviation,” said state Rep. Chris Pringle, a Republican and chairman of the legislative committee that drew the new lines.

    Alabama argued in court filings that the state’s Black population is too spread out to be able to create a second majority district without abandoning core redistricting principles such as keeping districts compact and keeping communities of interest together. Drawing such a district, the state argued, would require mapping acrobatics, such as connecting coastal areas in southwest Alabama to peanut farms in the east.

    In a statement to The Associated Press, Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall said the map is “based on race-neutral redistricting principles that were approved by a bipartisan group of legislators.” He said it looks similar to three prior maps, including one cleared by the Justice Department and another enacted in the 2000s by “the Democrat-controlled Legislature.”

    “The Voting Rights Act does not force states to sort voters based on race,” Marshall said in a statement. “The VRA is meant to prohibit racial gerrymanders, not require them.”

    Standing in a meeting room at the Alabama Statehouse and pointing to a poster-size version of the map, Pringle said lawmakers prioritized a race-neutral approach. The lawsuit alleges the Republican lawmakers packed Black voters into certain areas, but Pringle said when they were drawing lines they “turned race off” as an option on the computer. Only later did they apply the racial data points.

    “I think the Supreme Court is going to back us up that we complied with existing law,” Pringle said.

    ___

    Alabama’s 7th Congressional District snakes a winding path from the western neighborhoods of Birmingham through the state’s Black Belt — a swath of land named for the rich soil that once gave rise to antebellum plantations — to sections of Montgomery.

    Democratic Rep. Terri Sewell, who has represented the district, has been the lone Democrat among the state’s seven House members since she took office in 2011. The state’s other six districts have reliably elected white Republicans for the last decade.

    Sewell was the only member of Alabama’s delegation to support restoring the most effective anti-discrimination provision of the Voting Rights Act, which was gutted in a 2013 Supreme Court decision that also arose from an Alabama case. The provision, referred to as preclearance, forced Alabama, other states and some counties with a history of voting discrimination to get Justice Department or federal court approval before making any election-related changes.

    Some Black voters outside Sewell’s district say they feel their concerns are overlooked because there is no motivation for Republican officeholders in districts that favor the GOP to pay attention to their issues.

    “Fair representation and full representation of the voters in the state of Alabama would mean that a third of the population should get a third of the representation in Congress, and that at least includes one additional seat,” Sewell said. “Look, I think that I would welcome the opportunity to have another seat where I have a colleague that will fight for, you know, voting rights and civil rights, that that will understand that this country has gotten far when it comes to diversity. But we have a long ways to go.”

    Alabama’s congressional delegation voted unanimously for the CARES Act, which provided federal aid to state and local governments during the Trump administration as the COVID-19 outbreak was erupting across the country. But that unity vanished when President Joe Biden took office.

    Sewell was alone in the delegation in supporting the American Rescue Plan, legislation passed by a Democratic-controlled Congress and signed by Biden. Among other things, she said, the bill benefited community health centers and the health care response at historically Black colleges.

    One of them, Alabama State University, was founded two years after the Civil War and in an area where the districts divide. Sewell also was alone in supporting other significant legislation since Biden took office — including the $1 trillion infrastructure bill and the recent Inflation Reduction Act, which, among other provisions, capped out-of-pocket drug costs for Medicare recipients and helped millions of Americans afford health insurance by extending coverage subsidies.

    Those types of priorities speak to the Rev. Murphy Green, a local political activist who is supporting the long shot bid by the Democratic candidate in the race for the 2nd Congressional District, where the Republican incumbent won with 65% of the vote two years ago.

    He particularly pointed to the health care price controls enacted by Democrats, including for insulin. While diabetes also is a problem for white residents, it is especially systemic among Black people and the cost of drugs to combat it is a priority, Green said in an interview.

    “I am a diabetic,” he said. “My congressman voted against price controls on the cost of insulin.”

    ___

    Montgomery, which is split into two congressional districts, is a municipal version of the state when it comes to redistricting.

    From customers at a well-known barbershop to shoppers at a convenience store, from groups sitting in empty lots and residents in some of the neighborhoods that are being shifted, the question of who represents them in Congress and who will be on the ballot in November brings a range of answers.

    The 2nd Congressional District seat has been held by white Republicans for decades, except for two years when a conservative white Democrat got a bounce from turnout related to Democrat Barack Obama’s presidential campaign in 2008.

    Of dozens of people approached, the majority are aware there is an Alabama case going to the Supreme Court, but they don’t know details of the racial gerrymandering behind the case. Some are unaware of who their congressional representative has been.

    In Heritage Barber and Style Shop, a local Black barbershop that rides the line between the 2nd and 7th congressional districts and sits across from Alabama State, Stephen Myers, 77, talks about the state’s maps and attempts to minimize Black voting strength.

    “What’s different?” he said.

    In the decades he has lived in his home, Myers said he has never had the opportunity to cast a “meaningful” vote for a Democrat. Keeping people motivated under those conditions is a challenge, he said.

    The operator of a civil rights site tour, Myers said he passed along the significance of voting to his children and grandchildren, but motivating the current generation? “That’s a good question,” he said.

    The frustration is shared by the Rev. Benjamin Jones, who heads the St. James Missionary Baptist Church, a congregation of about 300 tucked into the former farmlands of east Montgomery County.

    He recalled the sacrifices of older generations during the civil rights movement. His father, for example, would attend protests and marches that sometimes ended with him going to jail, while his mother would stay home so she could bail him out.

    “So it is frustrating to know that people went through those type things, but seemingly in 2022 there hasn’t been that much progress in the voting arena in terms of being able to elect people,” he said. “It’s not about someone who shares your same skin tone, but someone who at least cares enough about your politics to be concerned about your issues.”

    ___

    The strategy to challenge a map with a safe majority-Black district comes with risks. As the case goes before the Supreme Court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, advocates fear an adverse ruling could affect future redistricting cases.

    Five conservative justices were in the majority in the February vote blocking the use of the map during this year’s elections. A sixth, Chief Justice John Roberts, objected to the procedure his colleagues used to prevent the districts from being redrawn.

    But Roberts has a long history of opposition to the Voting Rights Act and wrote the opinion in the 2013 Supreme Court decision that dismantled part of the law.

    The February decision by the court is “a troubling sign of what may be to come,” said Michael Li, senior counsel in the Democracy Center for the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University.

    He said there is a real chance the Supreme Court could further gut the Voting Rights Act and “make it all but impossible to use.”

    “If the VRA doesn’t apply in the Black Belt of Alabama, it is hard to see it applying in many places,” Li said.

    The effects of a decision in favor of Alabama could be widespread, potentially allowing states to dismantle or alter districts that have elected Black, Latino and other minority candidates.

    Standing by King’s former church in downtown Montgomery, one of the lawsuit’s plaintiffs acknowledges the risk.

    “I am nervous and I’m not afraid to say that,” said 26-year-old Khadidah Stone. “I think the nervous part is looking at what happened in the summer with Roe v. Wade. When I’m looking at that, I look at what else is up to possibly being attacked.”

    Even if the plaintiffs prevail, the Alabama Legislature could redraw the lines in a way that actually could jeopardize the one majority Black, Democratic-leaning district. Lowering the percentage of Black voters in Sewell’s district could take an overwhelmingly safe district to one that is less so.

    Hank Sanders, a Democrat and former longtime state senator who helped draw the congressional map Alabama put in place 20 years ago, said there is a risk that “you could end up losing both.”

    But he said the risks have always been there in pursuing civil and voting rights. That is especially true in Alabama and more specifically Montgomery, where memorials to those advances coexist within sight of statues and memorials honoring the Confederacy.

    “If we didn’t take risks and we didn’t take a chance, we’d still be in segregation now,” he said.

    ___

    Sherman reported from Washington. Associated Press data reporter Aaron Kessler contributed to this report.

    ___

    Associated Press coverage of democracy receives support from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

    ___

    Follow AP for full coverage of the midterms at https://apnews.com/hub/2022-midterm-elections and on Twitter at https://twitter.com/ap_politics

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  • Bolsonaro, Lula start fight for support before Brazil runoff

    Bolsonaro, Lula start fight for support before Brazil runoff

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    RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, two diametrically opposed candidates for Brazil’s presidency, have started a four-week race to pursue votes ahead of a winner-take-all runoff.

    After garnering more than 90% of the vote in Sunday’s first round, leaving their competitors far behind, incumbent President Bolsonaro and ex-President da Silva are already eyeing options that can push them over the top, whether political alliances or endorsements from candidates now eliminated.

    Political analysts say Bolsonaro will seek to capitalize on an unexpectedly strong showing by the right wing as a whole to shore up support from politicians seeking advantageous alliances while da Silva — who won the first-round vote — reaches out to moderates.

    The election will determine whether a leftist returns to the helm of the world’s fourth-largest democracy or whether Bolsonaro can advance his far-right agenda for another term.

    Many polls had indicated leftist da Silva had a significant lead, with some suggesting he could even clinch a first-round victory. Most showed margins that neared or exceeded double digits. But Bolsonaro came within just five points of da Silva, forcing an Oct. 30 runoff.

    While da Silva’s tally of 48.4% of the vote was within most polls’ margins of error, Bolsonaro’s 43.2% far exceeded most of them. The president’s allies running for Congress and governorships also outperformed polls.

    “The far-right has shown great resilience in the presidential and in the state races,” said Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo.

    Speaking after the results, da Silva said he was excited to have a few more weeks of campaigning and the opportunity to go face-to-face with Bolsonaro and “make comparisons between the Brazil he built with the Brazil we built during our administrations.”

    “I always thought that we were going to win these elections. And I tell you that we are going to win this election. This, for us, is just an extension,” da Silva said.

    Meanwhile, Bolsonaro seemed to appeal to poorer voters, who make up a significant chunk of da Silva’s base. He highlighted high inflation that has boosted the cost of food and has hurt the approval ratings of leaders worldwide.

    “I understand there is a desire from the population for change, but some changes can be for the worse” he said. Bolsonaro added that he wanted to keep Brazil from adopting leftist economic policies that would put it on a troubled economic path similar to those of Argentina and Venezuela.

    It still isn’t clear why polls missed the mark on support for Bolsonaro and right-wing candidates.

    Some analysts suggest voters had been embarrassed to tell pollsters they backed Bolsonaro and instead listed another candidate, said Arilton Freres, director of Curitiba-based Instituto Opinião. “But that in itself doesn’t explain everything,” he added, saying outdated census data also may have had an impact on the design of the polls.

    Bolsonaro and allies have repeatedly cast doubt on the polls, and pointed instead great turnouts at his street rallies. “Many people were carried away by the lies propagated by the research institutes,” Bolsonaro wrote Monday on his Twitter profile.

    The right’s positive night extended to races for congressional seats and governorships, especially candidates with Bolsonaro’s blessing.

    Bolsonaro said his party’s showing could bring fresh endorsements ahead of the runoff as other parties strike alliances in exchange for support. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party will surpass da Silva’s Workers’ Party to become the biggest in the Senate and the Lower House, with a total of 112 seats, or 23 more than its main rival — though still are short of what is needed to pass legislation by itself.

    The right’s stronger-than-expected showing in Brazil’s populous southeast especially could benefit Bolsonaro, analysts say. His former infrastructure minister topped the race to govern Sao Paulo and will go to a runoff. The governor of Rio de Janeiro, an ally, won reelection outright, and the governor of the second most populous state, Minas Gerais, indicated he will endorse Bolsonaro in a video message Monday afternoon.

    Meanwhile, da Silva’s campaign is likely to focus on winning over the centrist vote, especially in Brazil’s most populous state, Sao Paulo, where da Silva’s politically moderate running mate, Geraldo Alckmin, is a former governor, independent political analyst Thomas Traumann said.

    Bolsonaro has expressed no interest in bringing defeated presidential candidates to his side, while da Silva has said he already reached out to competitors, who garnered about 8% of the vote combined. Analysts say there was a last-minute migration of votes from some of those candidates to Bolsonaro.

    Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes, the third- and fourth-place finishers, together earned 8.5 million votes. The difference between Bolsonaro and da Silva in the first round amounted to 6.1 million votes, and more than 30 million people abstained.

    Before the election, Tebet hinted she might urge her backers to vote for da Silva and in televised debates, she vehemently criticized Bolsonaro’s four years in office. After results came out on Sunday, she gave her coalition of political parties 48 hours to clarify who it will back, saying after that deadline she will make her own position public.

    Center-left Gomes was a minister in da Silva’s government before breaking with him, and in 2018 became openly hostile. That would make a possible endorsement more awkward, despite their ideological common ground, said Marco Antônio Teixeira, a public administration professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a university in Sao Paulo.

    “I want to make something clear: Lula is the favorite, period. As the momentum is Bolsonaro’s, people forget that,” Traumann said.

    Even if da Silva does come out on top, his administration will face tough opposition in Congress, according to Rey.

    “Part of the big centrist bloc will be Bolsonarista, although we don’t yet to what extent,” she said. “And Lula will have to deal with this.”

    ___

    Bridi reported from Brasilia. AP writers Mauricio Savarese, Daniel Politi and David Biller reported from Sao Paulo, Curitiba and Rio de Janeiro.

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  • How the far-right got out of the doghouse

    How the far-right got out of the doghouse

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    European far-right politicians just stormed to victory in Italy, after achieving historic results in France and Sweden.

    “Everywhere in Europe, people aspire to take their destiny back into their own hands!” said Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right National Rally Party. 

    But if you think there is a new wave of right-wing radicalism sweeping Europe, you’d be wrong. Something else is going on.

    Analysis by POLITICO’s Poll of Polls suggests far-right parties in the region on average did not increase their support by even one percentage point between the start of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine in February and today.

    POLITICO looked at the median and average increase of all parties organized in right-wing European Parliament groups of Identity and Democracy, the European Conservatives and Reformists or unaffiliated parties with political far-right positions.

    Overall, the results indicate that if an increase in support occurred for far-right parties, it happened several years ago.

    The Sweden Democrats’ first surge happened after the 2014 election, when the party grew from around 10 percent to 20 percent, the same one-fifth share of the vote they received in this year’s election. The far-right Alternative for Germany AfD in Germany grew fast in 2015 and 2016 reaching 14 percent in POLITICO’s polling tracker. In Italy, the Northern League overtook Forza Italia for the first time in early 2015, and peaked in 2019 at 37 percent before starting a downward trend ending on 9 percent in last month’s election. In the Italian election, voters mostly switched between rival right-wing camps.

    The far-right has moved from the fringes of politics into the mainstream, not only influencing the political center but also entering the arena of power. 

    “There is a normalization of far-right parties as an integral part of the political landscape,” said Cathrine Thorleifsson, who researches extremism at the University of Oslo. “They have been accepted by the electorate and also by other, conventional parties.”

    Cooperation between the center-right and the extreme-right has become less taboo. 

    “The rise of far-right parties is only part of the story. The facilitating and mainstreaming of far-right parties as well as the adoption of far-right frames and positions by other parties is at least as important,” tweeted Cas Mudde, a leading scholar on the issue. 

    This may risk destabilizing Europe even more than winning a couple of percentage points in the polls.

    Italy’s far-right firebrand Giorgia Meloni is a clear-cut example. While her party draws its origin from groups founded by former fascists, she’ll now lead the EU’s third-largest economy.

    Leader of Italian far-right party “Fratelli d’Italia” (Brothers of Italy), Giorgia Meloni | Pitro Cruciatti/AFP via Getty Images

    In Sweden, the center-right party has started coalition talks for a minority government which would have to draw on opposition support, most likely from the far-right Swedish Democrats. Far-right parties have also entered governments in Austria, Finland, Estonia and Italy. Other countries are likely to follow. 

    George Simion, the leader of Romania’s far-right party, Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), celebrated Meloni’s win in Italy, saying his party is likely to follow in their footsteps.

    Spain heads to the ballot box next year and socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez may have a tough time winning re-election. The conservative People’s Party is between five and seven points ahead of the Spanish socialists in all the published polls, but it is unlikely to garner enough votes to secure a governing majority outright.

    That means it may have to come to an agreement with far-right party Vox, whose leader, Santiago Abascal, is an ally of Meloni’s. While the People’s Party previously refused to govern with Vox, last spring its newly elected leader, Alberto Núnez-Feijóo, greenlit a coalition agreement with the ultranationalist group in Spain’s central Castilla y León region. 

    Tom Van Grieken, the right-wing Belgian politician, also pointed to Spain as the next likely example, especially because of the possible cooperation with the PP. “All over Europe, we see conservative parties who are considering breaking the cordon sanitaire,” he said, referring to the refusal of other parties to work with the far-right. “They are tired of compromising with their ideological counterparts, the parties at the left end of the spectrum.”

    Chairman of Vlaams Belang party Tom Van Grieken | Stephanie Le Coqc/EFE via EPA

    This didn’t happen overnight. The far-right worked hard to shrug off their extremist, neo-Nazi image.

    “In some of the reporting on the Swedish Democrats, you’d think they’ll deport people on trains as soon as they’re in power. Come on, these parties have changed,” said one EU official with right-wing affiliations. 

    The far-right invested in “image adjustment and trying to tread carefully with some issues, while unashamedly catering to others,” said Nina Wiesehomeier, a political scientist at the IE University of Madrid.  “This is particularly obvious in Italy right now, with Meloni sticking to the slogan of ‘God, homeland, family,’ as a continuation, while having tried to purge the party from more radical elements.”

    In Belgium’s northern region of Flanders, the right-wing Vlaams Belang (Flemish Interest) explicitly dismisses the label “extreme-right.” Just like his counterparts in Italy, Sweden and France, Van Grieken, the party’s president, denounced the more extremist positions of his group’s founding fathers and moderated his political message to make voting for the far-right socially acceptable. 

    Overt racism is taboo. Instead, the rhetoric changes to criticizing an open-door migration policy. By carefully catering to centrist voters, the far-right aims for a bigger slice of the cake, while still riding on the anti-establishment discontent.

    “There is a clear fault line between the winners of globalization and the nationalists,” Van Grieken told POLITICO. “This comes on top on the concerns about mass migration, whether it’s in Malmö, Rome or other European cities.”

    Perfect storm

    Now, the time is right to capitalize on that transformation.

    As Europe is battling record inflation and Europeans fear exorbitant heating bills, governments warn about the political implications of a “winter of discontent.” 

    “It’s a massive drainage of European prosperity,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told POLITICO recently. “In the current situation, it’s hard to believe in progress, it’s very hard to make progress. So there’s a very pessimistic feeling.”

    The current war in Ukraine is the latest in a succession of crises — in global finance, migration and the pandemic. Experts argue that this is key to understanding the rising support for the far-right. 

    “Such existential crises have a destabilizing effect and lead to fear,” said Carl Devos, a professor in political science at Ghent University. “Fear is the breeding ground for the far-right. People tend to translate that fear and outrage into radical voting behaviour.”

    Migration and identity politics are less prominent in the media because of the Ukraine war and rising energy prices, but they’re still key issues in right-wing debate.

    In Austria, the coalition parties fought over whether or not asylum seekers should receive climate bonuses. In the Netherlands, the death of a baby at the asylum center Ter Apel led to a renewed debate over the overcrowded migration centers. 

    The combination of those issues is likely to feed into more right-wing wins across the continent. “The far-right offers nationalist, protectionist solutions to the globalized crises, said Thorleifsson. “We see how the migration issue was momentarily off the agenda during the pandemic, but now it’s back.”

    Aitor Hernández-Morales, Camille Gijs and Ana Fota contributed reporting.

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  • Bolsonaro, Lula appear headed for runoff in Brazil race

    Bolsonaro, Lula appear headed for runoff in Brazil race

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    RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil’s top two presidential candidates were neck-and-neck late Sunday in a highly polarized election that could determine if the country returns a leftist to the helm of the world’s fourth-largest democracy or keeps the far-right incumbent in office for another four years.

    The race pits incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro against his political nemesis, leftist former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. There are nine other candidates, but their support pales to that for Bolsonaro and da Silva.

    With 91.6% of votes counted, da Silva had 47.3%, ahead of Bolsonaro with 44.2%, according to the electoral authority.

    It appears increasingly likely neither of the top two candidates will receive more than 50% of the valid votes, which exclude spoiled and blank ballots, which would mean a second round vote will be scheduled for Oct. 30.

    “We will most likely have a second round,” said Nara Pavão, who teaches political science at the Federal University of Pernambuco. “The probability of ending the election now (in the first round) is too small.”

    Recent opinion polls had given da Silva a commanding lead — the last Datafolha survey published Saturday found a 50% to 36% advantage for da Silva among those who intended to vote. It interviewed 12,800 people, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

    The election wound up being far tighter than anticipated, both in the presidential contest and those for governorships and congressional seats.

    “The far-right has shown great resilience in the presidential and in the state races,” said Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo.

    “It is too soon to go too deep, but this election shows Bolsonaro’s victory in 2018 was not a hiccup,” he added.

    Bolsonaro outperformed in Brazil’s southeast region, which includes populous Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais states, according to Rafael Cortez, who oversees political risk at consultancy Tendencias Consultoria.

    “The polls didn’t capture that growth,” Cortez said.

    Bolsonaro’s administration has been marked by incendiary speech, his testing of democratic institutions, his widely criticized handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the worst deforestation in the Amazon rainforest in 15 years.

    But he has built a devoted base by defending conservative values, rebuffing political correctness and presenting himself as protecting the nation from leftist policies that he says infringe on personal liberties and produce economic turmoil.

    While voting earlier Sunday, Marley Melo, a 53-year-old trader in capital Brasilia, sported the yellow of the Brazilian flag, which Bolsonaro and his supporters have coopted for demonstrations. Melo said he is once again voting for Bolsonaro, who met his expectations, and he doesn’t believe the surveys that show him trailing.

    “Polls can be manipulated. They all belong to companies with interests,” he said.

    A slow economic recovery has yet to reach the poor, with 33 million Brazilians going hungry despite higher welfare payments. Like several of its Latin American neighbors coping with high inflation and a vast number of people excluded from formal employment, Brazil is considering a shift to the political left.

    Bolsonaro has repeatedly questioned the reliability not just of opinion polls, but also of Brazil’s electronic voting machines. Analysts fear he has laid the groundwork to reject results.

    At one point, Bolsonaro claimed to possess evidence of fraud, but never presented any, even after the electoral authority set a deadline to do so. He said as recently as Sept. 18 that if he doesn’t win in the first round, something must be “abnormal.”

    Da Silva, 76, was once a metalworker who rose from poverty to the presidency and is credited with building an extensive social welfare program during his 2003-2010 tenure that helped lift tens of millions into the middle class.

    But he is also remembered for his administration’s involvement in vast corruption scandals that entangled politicians and business executives.

    Da Silva’s own convictions for corruption and money laundering led to 19 months imprisonment, sidelining him from the 2018 presidential race that polls indicated he had been leading against Bolsonaro. The Supreme Court later annulled da Silva’s convictions on grounds that the judge was biased and colluded with prosecutors.

    Social worker Nadja Oliveira, 59, said she voted for da Silva and even attended his rallies, but since 2018 votes for Bolsonaro.

    “Unfortunately the Workers’ Party disappointed us. It promised to be different,” she said in Brasilia.

    Others, like Marialva Pereira, are more forgiving. She said she would vote for the former president for the first time since 2002.

    “I didn’t like the scandals in his first administration, never voted for the Workers’ Party again. Now I will, because I think he was unjustly jailed and because Bolsonaro is such a bad president that it makes everyone else look better,” said Pereira, 47.

    Speaking after casting his ballot in Sao Bernardo do Campo, the manufacturing hub in Sao Paulo state where he was a union leader, da Silva recalled that four years ago he was imprisoned and unable to vote.

    Bolsonaro grew up in a lower-middle-class family before joining the army. He turned to politics after being forced out of the military for openly pushing to raise servicemen’s pay. During his seven terms as a fringe lawmaker in Congress’ lower house, he regularly expressed nostalgia for the country’s two-decade military dictatorship.

    His overtures to the armed forces have raised concern that his possible rejection of election results could be backed by top brass.

    On Saturday, Bolsonaro shared social media posts by right-leaning foreign politicians, including former U.S. President Donald Trump, who called on Brazilians to vote for him. Israel’s former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed gratitude for stronger bilateral relations and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also praised him.

    After voting Sunday morning, Bolsonaro told journalists that “clean elections must be respected” and that the first round would be decisive. Asked if he would respect results, he gave a thumbs up and walked away.

    Leda Wasem, 68, had no doubt Bolsonaro will not just be reelected. Wearing a jersey of the national soccer squad at a polling place in downtown Curitiba, the real estate agent said an eventual da Silva victory could have only one explanation: fraud.

    “I wouldn’t believe it. Where I work, where I go every day, I don’t see a single person who supports Lula,” she said.

    ———

    Savarese reported from Sao Bernardo do Campo. AP writers Daniel Politi and Carla Bridi reported from Curitiba and Brasilia.

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  • Exit poll: Center-right GERB party will win Bulgarian vote

    Exit poll: Center-right GERB party will win Bulgarian vote

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    SOFIA, Bulgaria — An exit poll in Bulgaria suggested Sunday that the center-right GERB party of ex-premier Boyko Borissov, a party blamed for presiding over years of corruption, will be the likely winner of Bulgaria’s parliamentary election.

    The poll conducted by Gallup International showed the GERB party earning 24.6% support, apparently edging out the reformist We Continue the Change pro-Western party of former Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, which is expected to capture 18.9%. Still, the predicted percentage won’t be enough for Borissov’s party to form a one-party government, and the chances for a GERB-led coalition are slim.

    The exit poll also predicted that eight parties could pass the 4% threshold to enter a fragmented parliament with populist and pro-Russia groups showing increased gains.

    The European Union nation’s fourth election in 18 months was marked by a raging war nearby, political instability and economic hardships in the bloc’s poorest member. A low turnout reflected voter apathy.

    Petkov conceded defeat late Sunday.

    “We lost the election, albeit by a small margin, and now GERB has the responsibility to form a coalition and govern the country,” he said.

    It could take days before the final official results are announced. If they confirm the exit poll, Borisov will be handed a mandate to form his fourth cabinet. It will be an uphill task for him to produce a stable governing coalition, however, since most political groups have in advance rejected any cooperation with his GERB party, which presided over years of corruption that hampered development.

    The early election came after a fragile coalition led by Petkov lost a no-confidence vote in June. He claimed afterward that Moscow had used “hybrid war” tactics to bring down his government after it refused to pay gas bills in rubles and ordered an expulsion of Russian diplomats from Bulgaria.

    The deputy chief of the European Council on Foreign Relations, Vessela Cherneva, said the predicted result could produce two types of coalitions: an anti-corruption coalition, in which GERB under Borissov would find no place, or a geopolitical coalition of the centrist parties, which would be possible only if Borissov resigns from leading his party.

    “The scenario under which there is no coalition possible would undermine parliamentary democracy in Bulgaria and will further tilt the balance towards the pro-Russian President (Rumen) Radev,” Cherneva said.

    After casting his vote Sunday, Borissov told reporters that Bulgaria needs to clearly position itself on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

    “With this aggression, with this war with a clear aggressor in the face of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin – (I have) nothing against the Russian people — with this farce with the referendums, Bulgaria must be very clear, categorical, and precise about its place in the European Union and NATO,” he said.

    He said getting Bulgaria into Europe’s 19-nation shared currency eurozone should be the next government’s most important task.

    Petkov ran on promises to continue efforts to eradicate corruption, but a European energy crisis sparked by Russia’s war on Ukraine was the dominant economic theme for voters.

    Many Bulgarians share pro-Russia sentiments, which provides fertile soil for aggressive Kremlin propaganda in the Balkan country.

    The pro-Russia party Vazrazhdane, riding on those feelings, captured 10.2% of the vote, up from 4.9% in the previous election, the exit poll predicted.

    Unlike the stance taken by the EU, which has fully condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine and slapped sanctions on Russia for it, Vazrazhdane leader Kostadin Kostadinov has urged “full neutrality” for Bulgaria in the war.

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  • Brazil holds historic election with Lula against Bolsonaro

    Brazil holds historic election with Lula against Bolsonaro

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    RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazilians were voting on Sunday in a highly polarized election that could determine if the country returns a leftist to the helm of the world’s fourth-largest democracy or keeps the far-right incumbent in office for another four years.

    The race pits incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro against his political nemesis, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. There are nine other candidates, but their support pales to that for Bolsonaro and da Silva.

    Recent opinion polls have given da Silva a commanding lead — the last Datafolha survey published Saturday found a 50% to 36% advantage for da Silva among those who intended to vote. It interviewed 12,800 people, with a margin of error of two percentage points.

    Agatha de Carvalho, 24, arrived to her local voting station in Rio de Janeiro’s working class Rocinha neighborhood shortly before it opened, hoping to cast her ballot before work, but found 100 others were already lined up. She said she would vote for da Silva, and called Bolsonaro “awful.”

    “A lot of people died because of him during the pandemic. If he hadn’t done some of the things he did, some of those deaths could have been avoided,” she said.

    Bolsonaro’s administration has been marked by incendiary speech, his testing of democratic institutions, his widely criticized handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the worst deforestation in the Amazon rainforest in 15 years.

    But he has built a devoted base by defending traditional family values, rebuffing political correctness and presenting himself as protecting the nation from leftist policies that infringe on personal liberties and produce economic turmoil.

    Luiz Garcez, 49, in the southern city of Curitiba, said Bolsonaro’s presidency has been “among the best in history” because “he built a lot and helped the country.”

    A slow economic recovery has yet to reach the poor, with 33 million Brazilians going hungry despite higher welfare payments. Like several of its Latin American neighbors coping with high inflation and a vast number of people excluded from formal employment, Brazil is considering a shift to the political left.

    Gustavo Petro in Colombia, Gabriel Boric in Chile and Pedro Castillo in Peru are among the left-leaning leaders in the region who have recently assumed power.

    Da Silva could win in the first round, without need for a run-off on Oct. 30, if he gets more than 50% of valid votes, which exclude spoiled and blank ballots. Brazil has more than 150 million eligible voters, and voting is mandatory, but abstention rates can reach as high as 20%.

    An outright win by da Silva would sharpen focus on Bolsonaro’s reaction to the count. He has repeatedly questioned the reliability not just of opinion polls, but also of Brazil’s electronic voting machines. Analysts fear he has laid the groundwork to reject results.

    At one point, Bolsonaro claimed to possess evidence of fraud, but never presented any, even after the electoral authority set a deadline to do so. He said as recently as Sept. 18 that if he doesn’t win in the first round, something must be “abnormal.”

    The two frontrunners have key bases of support: evangelicals and white men for Bolsonaro, and women, minorities and the poor for da Silva.

    Da Silva, 76, was once a metalworker who rose from poverty to the presidency and is credited with building an extensive social welfare program during his 2003-2010 tenure that helped lift tens of millions into the middle class.

    But he is also remembered for his administration’s involvement in vast corruption scandals that entangled politicians and business executives.

    Da Silva’s own convictions for corruption and money laundering led to 19 months imprisonment, sidelining him from the 2018 presidential race that polls indicated he had been leading against Bolsonaro. The Supreme Court later annulled da Silva’s convictions on the grounds that the judge was biased and colluded with prosecutors.

    Marialva Santos Pereira, 47, said she would vote for the former president for the first time since 2002.

    “I didn’t like the scandals in his first administration, never voted for the Workers’ Party again. Now I will, because I think he was unjustly jailed and because Bolsonaro is such a bad president that it makes everyone else look better.”

    Speaking after casting his ballot in Sao Bernardo do Campo, the manufacturing hub in Sao Paulo state where he was a union leader, da Silva recalled that four years ago he was imprisoned and unable to vote.

    “I want to try to make the country return to normality, try to make this country again take care of its people,” he told reporters.

    Bolsonaro grew up in a lower-middle-class family before joining the army. He turned to politics after being forced out of the military for openly pushing to raise servicemen’s pay. During his seven terms as a fringe lawmaker in Congress’ lower house, he regularly expressed nostalgia for the country’s two-decade military dictatorship.

    His overtures to the armed forces have raised concern that his possible rejection of election results could be backed by top brass.

    Traditionally, the armed forces’ involvement in elections has been limited to carrying voting machines to isolated communities and beefing up security in violent regions. But this year, Bolsonaro suggested the military should conduct a parallel count of the ballots.

    While that didn’t materialize, the Defense Ministry said it will cross check results in over 380 polling stations across Brazil. Any citizen or entity is able to do the same, consulting a vote tally available at each station after ballot closure and online.

    On Saturday, Bolsonaro shared social media posts by right-leaning foreign politicians, including former U.S. President Donald Trump, who called on Brazilians to vote for him. Israel’s former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed gratitude for stronger bilateral relations and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also praised him.

    After voting Sunday morning, wearing a T-shirt with the green and yellow of Brazil’s flag, Bolsonaro told journalists that “clean elections must be respected” and that the first round would be decisive. Asked if he would respect results, he gave a thumbs up and walked away.

    Because the vote is conducted electronically, preliminary results are usually out within minutes, with the final result available a few hours later. This year, all polls will close at 5 p.m. Brasilia time (4 p.m. EDT; 2000 GMT).

    ———

    Savarese reported from Sao Bernardo do Campo. AP writer Daniel Politi reported from Curitiba.

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  • Jimmy Carter celebrating 98 with family, friends, baseball

    Jimmy Carter celebrating 98 with family, friends, baseball

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    ATLANTA — Jimmy Carter, already the longest-living U.S. president in history, turned 98 on Saturday, celebrating with family and friends in Plains, the tiny Georgia town where he and his wife, 95-year-old Rosalynn, were born in the years between World War I and the Great Depression.

    His latest milestone came as The Carter Center, which the 39th president and the former first lady established after their one White House term, marked 40 years of promoting democracy and conflict resolution, monitoring elections, and advancing public health in the developing world.

    Jason Carter, the former president’s grandson now leading the Carter Center board, described his grandfather, an outspoken Christian, as content with his life and legacy.

    “He is looking at his 98th birthday with faith in God’s plan for him,” the younger Carter, 47, said, “and that’s just a beautiful blessing for all of us to know, personally, that he is at peace and happy with where he has been and where he’s going.”

    Carter Center leaders said the former president, who survived a cancer diagnosis in 2015 and a serious fall at home in 2019, was enjoying reading congratulatory messages sent by well-wishers around the world via social media and the center’s website even before the actual birthday. But Jason Carter said his grandfather mostly looked forward to a simple day that included watching his favorite Major League Baseball team, the Atlanta Braves, on television.

    “He’s still 100% with it, even though daily life things are a lot harder now,” Jason Carter said. “But one thing I guarantee. He will watch all the Braves games this weekend.”

    James Earl Carter Jr. won the 1976 presidential election after beginning the campaign as a little-known, one-term Georgia governor. His surprise performance in the Iowa caucuses established the small, Midwestern state as an epicenter of presidential politics. Carter went on to defeat President Gerald Ford in the general election, largely on the strength of sweeping the South before his native region shifted heavily to Republicans.

    A Naval Academy alumnus, Navy officer and peanut farmer, Carter won in no small part because of his promise never to lie to an electorate weary over the Vietnam War and the Watergate scandal that resulted in Richard Nixon’s resignation from the presidency in 1974. Four years later, unable to tame inflation and salve voter anger over American hostages held in Iran, Carter lost 44 states to Ronald Reagan. He returned home to Georgia in 1981 at the age of 56.

    The former first couple almost immediately began planning The Carter Center. It opened in Atlanta in 1982 as a first-of-its-kind effort for a former president. The stated mission: to advance peace, human rights and public health causes around the world. Carter won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002. He traveled internationally into his 80s and 90s, and he did not retire officially from the board until 2020.

    Since opening, the center has monitored elections in 113 countries, said CEO Paige Alexander, and Carter has acted individually as a mediator in many countries, as well. Carter Center efforts have nearly eradicated the guinea worm, a parasite spread through unclean drinking water and painful to humans. Rosalynn Carter has steered programs designed to reduce stigma attached to mental health conditions.

    “He’s enjoying his retirement,” said Alexander, who assumed her role in 2020, about the time Jason Carter took over for his grandfather. But “he spends a lot of time thinking about the projects that he started and the projects that we’re continuing.”

    Alexander cited the guinea worm eradication effort as a highlight. Carter set the goal in 1986, when there were about 3.5 million cases annually across 21 countries, with a concentration in sub-Saharan Africa. So far this year, Alexander said, there are six known cases in two countries.

    In 2019, Carter used his final annual message at the center to lament that his post-presidency had been largely silent on climate change. Jason Carter said the center’s leadership is still exploring ways to combat the climate crisis. But he offered no timetable. “We won’t duplicate other effective efforts,” Carter said, explaining that one of the center’s strategic principles is to prioritize causes and places that no other advocacy organizations have engaged.

    On elections and democracy, perhaps the most unpredictable development is that Jimmy Carter has lived to see the center turn its efforts to the home front. The center now has programs to combat mistrust in the democratic process in the United States. Carter Center personnel monitored Georgia’s recount of U.S. presidential ballots in the state in 2020 after then-President Donald Trump argued the outcome was rigged. Multiple recounts in Georgia and other states affirmed the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s victory.

    “Certainly, we never thought we would end up coming home to do democracy and conflict resolution around our elections,” Jason Carter said. “(But) we couldn’t go be this incredible democracy and human rights organization overseas without ensuring that we were adding our voice and our expertise … in the U.S.”

    Ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, the center has asked candidates — regardless of party — to sign onto a set of fair election principles, including committing to the peaceful transfer of power. Among those who have signed commitments: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, and his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams.

    Carter himself has mostly retreated from politics. For years after his 1980 defeat, Democrats steered clear of him. He enjoyed a resurgence in recent election cycles, drawing visits from several 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls and, in 2021, from President Joe Biden, who in 1976 was the first U.S. senator to endorse Carter’s presidential bid. With inflation now at its highest levels since the late 1970s and early 1980s, some Republicans are bringing up Carter again as an attack line on Biden and Democrats.

    Jason Carter said the former president reads and watches the news daily, and sometimes accepts calls or visits from political figures. But, he added, the former president isn’t expected to appear publicly to endorse any candidates ahead of November.

    “His people that he feels sort of the closest connection with now are the folks in Plains, at his church and other places,” Jason Carter said. “But, you know, his partner No. 1, 2 and 3 is my grandma, right? He has outlived friends and so many of his advisers and the people that he accomplished so much with in the past, but they’ve never been lonely because they’ve always had each other.”

    ———

    Online: https://bit.ly/Happy98PresidentCarter

    ———

    Associated Press journalist Alex Sanz contributed to this report.

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  • Sweden: Right-wing party get 4 chairmanships in parliament

    Sweden: Right-wing party get 4 chairmanships in parliament

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    STOCKHOLM — A right-wing populist party that received the second-most votes in Sweden’s general election last month landed the chairmanships of four parliamentary committees Saturday and with it, the ability to wield more influence in mainstream Swedish politics.

    The positions to be held by lawmakers from the Sweden Democrats include chairing the Riksdag’s justice, foreign affair, business affairs and labor market committees.

    “It is important for us, a milestone in the party’s history,” legislator Richard Jomshof, a Sweden Democrat who was tapped to be the next chairman of the justice committee, told Swedish public broadcaster SVT. “It is an expression of the fact that we are Sweden’s second largest party.”

    In addition to the four chairperson posts, the party was allowed to name the vice-chairs of parliament’s civil affairs, traffic, defense and tax committees.

    Sweden Democrats, a nationalist and anti-immigration party with roots in the neo-Nazi movement, is part of right-wing bloc that won a narrow majority in the Riksdag in the Sept. 11 election.

    Decisions on the posts were announced Friday in a joint statement from the four center-right parties that are in talks to form a coalition government. Sweden Democrats, which is one of the four, announced its nominees Saturday.

    Ulf Kristersson, the leader of the center-right Moderates, the party that placed third, has been tasked with forming a government that is likely to have the Sweden Democrats as part of a governing coalition or at least the party’s support in securing a majority in parliament.

    Kristersson has until Oct. 12 to present results of his talks with parties to Parliament speaker Andreas Norlen.

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