ATHENS — Greece’s conservatives won big on Sunday’s parliamentary elections, securing an outright majority. Far-right parties also made gains, while the left struggled, giving Greece’s parliament its most rightward slant since the restoration of democracy in 1974.
The New Democracy party of Kyriakos Mitsotakis managed to widen its double-digit lead over its main rival, the left-wing Syriza party, and secured 158 seats in the country’s 300-seat parliament, under the new electoral system which awards the winning party 50 bonus seats.
“Our goals are high and must be high in a second term that can transform Greece with dynamic growth rates that will raise wages and reduce inequalities,” Mitsotakis said in his first message from his party’s headquarters.
“People gave us a safe majority. The major reforms will therefore proceed with speed as this is the choice of the Greek people and I will honor it in full.”
Sunday’s elections were the second held in the country in five weeks, after New Democracy came first on May 21 but fell short of an outright majority.
New Democracy got 40.5 percent of the vote on Sunday, while Syriza was lagging with only 17.8 percent and 47 seats, according to official results. The socialist PASOK party had 11.9 percent and 32 seats, and the communists KKE had 7.6 percent and 20 seats. The participation rate was at 52.7 percent, the Interior Ministry reported.
Far-right gains
Four fringe parties — mainly from the far-right — also managed to top the 3 percent threshold to make it into parliament.
Last-minute contender the Spartans party — which recently added a jailed MP from the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party, Ilias Kasidiaris, to its list of backers — saw its support rise to 4.7 percent within days and secured 13 seats in parliament. The conservative government had passed an amendment aiming to ban him from parliament.
New Democracy’s dominance is another sign of how Southern European countries are moving to the right, after a decades-long financial crisis in the eurozone that led the rise of left-wing parties.
Ultra-nationalist, pro-Russian Greek Solution got 4.5 percent and 12 seats, while anti-abortion, religious party Niki got 3.7 percent and 10 MPs. To the left, Course of Freedom, led by former member of Syriza Zoi Konstantopoulou, got 3.1 percent and 8 seats.
The far right has performed well in recent elections in Finland and Spain, and is polling particularly well in Germany. Its savvier elements — like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — are beginning to assert themselves at the European level.
But the main story of Sunday’s election was New Democracy’s dominance, which is another sign of how Southern European countries are moving to the right, after a decades-long financial crisis in the eurozone that led to the rise of left-wing parties.
“This is a clear victory for Kyriakos Mitsotakis, for [New Democracy] and for the EPP,” said Thanasis Bakolas, the center-right European People’s Party secretary general.
“In politics, what you stand for matters. This is what we see in Greece, also what we saw earlier this year in national elections in Finland and regional elections in Spain. And this is precisely what we will see again in upcoming parliamentary elections in Spain in July and Poland in October. EPP parties are dominating the centre, while the centre-left is barricaded to its fringes.”
The election outcome is considered market-friendly and puts Greece firmly on track to regain an investment-grade rating towards the end of the year, analysts say.
Mitsotakis has promised that his first two bills will include a further reform of the public administration and the economy. He has also promised overhauls in the judicial, health and education sectors and expressed his intention to create a family ministry to help address Greece’s shrinking, and ageing, population.
“The resounding victory will provide ND with a comfortable majority, putting Mitsotakis in a good position to push through investor-friendly reforms,” said Wolfango Piccoli, co-founder of risk analysis company Teneo.
But the fringe parties will have a platform to broadcast their populist message and attempt to disrupt the government’s agenda, exploiting politically toxic issues like migration, the relationship with Turkey, abortion, the role of religion in education, Russia sanctions, he added.
“It remains to be seen how Mitsotakis — often perceived to be more vulnerable to attacks from the far-right given his distinct liberal, center-right orientation — will manage to deal with the possible challenge posed by far-right opposition lawmakers.”
Main opposition Syriza performed very poorly, raising questions about whether its status as the main opposition could now be challenged by Pasok party. It also means that conservatives could govern without particular scrutiny.
“Although the danger of collapse was avoided and Syriza remains the official opposition, we have suffered a serious electoral defeat,” the party’s leader Alexis Tsipras said, setting the European elections next year as a goal for the party’s reimposition and adding that he will put his leadership to the judgment of the party members.
Anger is growing over the handling of a migrant boat disaster off Greece last week that has become one of the biggest tragedies in the Mediterranean in years. The calamity is dominating the country’s political agenda a week ahead of snap elections.
The Hellenic Coast Guard is facing increasing questions over its response to the fishing boat that sank off Greece’s southern peninsula on Wednesday, leading to the death of possibly hundreds of migrants. Nearly 80 people are known to have perished in the wreck and hundreds are still missing, according to the U.N.’s migration and refugee agencies.
Critics say that the Greek authorities should have acted faster to keep the vessel from capsizing. There are testimonies from survivors that the Coast Guard tied up to the vessel and attempted to pull it, causing the boat to sway, which the Greek authorities strongly deny.
The boat may have been carrying as many as 750 passengers, including women and children, according to reports. Many of them were trapped underneath the deck in the sinking, according to Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency. “The ship was heavily overcrowded,” Frontex said.
About 100 people are known to have survived the sinking. Authorities continued to search for victims and survivors over the weekend.
The disaster may be “the worst tragedy ever” in the Mediterranean Sea, European Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson said on Friday. She said there has been a massive increase in the number of migrant boats heading from Libya to Europe since the start of the year.
Frontex said in a statement on Friday that no agency plane or boat was present at the time of the capsizing on Wednesday. The agency said it alerted the Greek and Italian authorities about the vessel after a Frontex plane spotted it, but the Greek officials waved off an offer of additional help.
Greece has been at the forefront of Europe’s migration crisis since 2015, when hundreds of thousands of people from the Middle East, Asia and Africa traveled thousands of miles across the Continent hoping to claim asylum.
Migration and border security have been key issues in the Greek political debate. Following Wednesday’s wreck, they have jumped to the top of the agenda, a week before national elections on June 25.
Greece is currently led by a caretaker government. Under the conservative New Democracy administration, in power until last month, the country adopted a tough migration policy. In late May, the EU urged Greece to launch a probe into alleged illegal deportations.
New Democracy leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who is expected to return to the prime minister’s office after the vote next Sunday, blasted criticism of the Greek authorities, saying it should instead be directed to the human traffickers, who he called “human scums.”
“It is very unfair for some so-called ‘people in solidarity’ [with refugees and migrants] to insinuate that the [Coast Guard] did not do its job. … These people are out there … battling the waves to rescue human lives and protect our borders,” Mitsotakis, who maintains a significant lead in the polls, said during a campaign event in Sparta on Saturday.
The Greek authorities claimed the people on board, some thought to be the smugglers who had arranged the boat from Libya, refused assistance and insisted on reaching Italy. So the Greek Coast Guard did not intervene, though it monitored the vessel for more than 15 hours before it eventually capsized.
“What orders did the authorities have, and they didn’t intervene because one of these ‘scums’ didn’t give them permission?” the left-wing Syriza party said in a statement. “Why was no order given to the lifeboat … to immediately assist in a rescue operation? … Why were life jackets not distributed … and why Frontex assistance was not requested?”
Alarm Phone, a network of activists that helps migrants in danger, said the Greek authorities had been alerted repeatedly many hours before the boat capsized and that there was insufficient rescue capacity.
According to a report by WDR citing migrants’ testimonies, attempts were made to tow the endangered vessel, but in the process the boat began to sway and sank. Similar testimonies by survivors appeared in Greek media.
A report on Greek website news247.gr said the vessel remained in the same spot off the town of Pylos for at least 11 hours before sinking. According to the report, the location on the chart suggests the vessel was not on a “steady course and speed” toward Italy, as the Greek Coast Guard said.
After initially saying that there was no effort to tow the boat, the Hellenic Coast Guard said on Friday that a patrol vessel approached and used a “small buoy” to engage the vessel in a procedure that lasted a few minutes and then was untied by the migrants themselves.
Coast Guard spokesman Nikos Alexiou defended the agency. “You cannot carry out a violent diversion on such a vessel with so many people on board, without them wanting to, without any sort of cooperation,” he said.
Alexiou said there is no video of the operation available.
Nine people, most of them from Egypt, were arrested over the capsizing, charged with forming a criminal organization with the purpose of illegal migrant trafficking, causing a shipwreck and endangering life. They will appear before a magistrate on Monday, according to Greek judicial authorities.
“Unfortunately, we have seen this coming because since the start of the year, there was a new modus operandi with these fishing boats leaving from the eastern part of Libya,” the EU’s Johansson told a press conference on Friday. “And we’ve seen an increase of 600 percent of these departures this year,” she added.
Greek Supreme Court Prosecutor Isidoros Dogiakos has urged absolute secrecy in the investigations being conducted in relation to the shipwreck.
Thousands of people took to the streets in different cities in Greece last week to protest the handling of the incident and the migration policies of Greece and the EU. More protests were planned for Sunday.
LONDON — “Britain Trump” may have a long wait on his hands if he’s going to stage the kind of comeback dreamed of by the former American president.
Boris Johnson’s exit did nothing to discourage comparisons with its blasts at the “kangaroo court” of lawmakers whose verdict sealed his fate, condemning the committee which judged him to have lied to parliament as a “witch hunt” seeking “revenge for Brexit.”
But while Monday’s debate in the House of Commons on the committee’s findings could have presented a crunch moment, with MPs forced to decide whether or not they would condemn or back their former leader, it has instead been deflated as Johnson told his loyal supporters Friday not to bother opposing the verdict. Johnson himself, the Sunday Times reported, will spend the day celebrating his 59th birthday far away in Oxfordshire.
While Donald Trump pursues the narrative of martyrdom at every available opportunity, for now at least, Johnson is ducking tests of his popularity and biding his time.
Unfortunately for Johnson, polls suggest he’s not that popular.
James Johnson, director of JL Partners which carries out polling on both sides of the Atlantic, described the respective standing of the two leaders as “very different — there’s 40 percent that backs Trump regardless. By comparison, Johnson wins the support of only about 15 to 18 percent of the population.”
Perhaps more crucially, the pollster added: “Trump has almost become a form of identity for many Republicans. If you back Trump, then you’re standing up to the liberals, you’re standing up to what’s going wrong in society. I don’t think Boris takes on anything as totemic as that.”
A Tory MP in a seat where Johnson remains popular commented that he had received only one email about the so-called partygate report, suggesting that while some voters may not care much about his misconduct, neither are they clamoring for him to come back.
Without an outpouring of support amongst voters, few within his own party in Westminster have run to his defense either.
“I’m done with that drama. There’s no way I’m ever going back there,” one Conservative minister said over the weekend, speaking on condition of anonymity in order to speak candidly.
For others the collective running out of patience is symptomatic of cultural differences across the Atlantic. A U.K. diplomat, previously based in the U.S., said that while Trump is still able to whip up crowds, “I think a bit sooner than in America we get sick of it and just actually want people to shut up.”
Not so Trumpian
Trump’s offhand anointing of Johnson back in 2019 — “they call him Britain Trump” — never rang that true, for all their shared populist tendencies.
Even as he pushed for Brexit, Johnson retained a liberal streak, unable to get as fired up about immigration or spending cuts as many of his colleagues would have liked. His famed rhetoric was rambling and deliberately ridiculous, rather than hectoring.
The route back may look harder for Johnson than it does for Trump, but that doesn’t mean he won’t try | Leon Neal/Getty Images
However, his resignation marked a sharp change in tone as he announced his departure with a savage attack on the committee which had condemned him.
In the immediate aftermath, there were signs of an insurrection as two of his close allies, ex-ministers Nadine Dorries and Nigel Adams, swore to go down with him.
The report’s full publication brought fresh howls of anguish as his supporters tweeted graphics boasting “I’m backing Boris,” while David Campbell Bannerman, chairman of the Conservative Democratic Organisation, warned that Tory MPs would face deselection if they backed what he called a “Stalinist show trial.”
But without Trump’s popularity with voters, it has proved difficult for Johnson to capitalize on a sense of martyrdom in the short term.
Matthew McGregor, a former adviser to the U.K. Labour Party and the U.S. Democrats and now CEO of campaign group 38 Degrees, points out that Trump stole a march by using the primary system to his advantage, but it would be difficult for Johnson to stage any equivalent “takeover” of the Conservative grassroots and equally difficult to run as an outsider.
While Johnson could, in theory, run for election to the House of Commons again, party headquarters would likely need to sign off on his candidature, which seems unlikely at this juncture.
A Conservative MP who served as a minister under Johnson said that insofar as he has a strategy, “it is to say you’ve got to throw absolutely everything at this, and some people will stick with you,” but “the trouble with this is that there are diminishing returns.”
Never say never
The route back may look harder for Johnson than it does for Trump, but that doesn’t mean he won’t try.
The two men share some temperamental qualities, as one former Tory minister who worked closely with Johnson admitted: “They both have a sense that because they have won against the odds their own judgment is infallible.”
“Their shamelessness is a superpower,” said McGregor. “The ability to give zero fucks whatsoever allows them to do things that other politicians can’t do, and that is pretty powerful.”
Guto Harri, who was Johnson’s head of comms, claimed this week in the Mail that Johnson last year told MPs who were urging him to resign with dignity that “dignity is a grossly overrated commodity and that I prefer to fight to the end.”
The Tory party’s torrid love affair with Johnson has been a long one — longer than Trump’s political career so far. Johnson may have the stomach for an even longer game.
An estimated 500,000 people marched through downtown Warsaw Sunday afternoon in a huge rally against the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, held on the 34th anniversary of the breakthrough election that effectively ended communist rule in Poland.
The march was called by Donald Tusk, former Polish prime minister and former president of the European Council, who is now leading his Civic Platform (PO) party in a bid to defeat PiS in an election due later this year.
“You’re all here because you have just believed we can win,” Tusk told the crowd, which filled Warsaw’s Castle Square. People in the crowd were holding up white-and-red flags and anti-government placards, including the locally famous ones with eight asterisks, denoting the Polish for “f*** PiS.”
“Here’s my pledge to you today: We are going to win this election and hold PiS accountable,” Tusk said.
The rally, which appeared to be the biggest political demonstration in Poland in decades, took place just a few days after PiS-friendly President Andrzej Duda signed off on controversial legislation setting up a special commission to probe Russian influence on Poland’s security. The commission will have vast powers including slapping whoever is found to be making political decisions under Russia’s sway with a 10-year ban from holding public office.
Poland’s opposition has said that the proposed sanctions of the special commission could be used to remove Tusk from politics under trumped-up allegations.
Following criticism in Poland, as well as from the U.S. and the EU, Duda has since moved to blunt the commission’s powers. That would, however, require another vote in the parliament.
Poland is gearing up for what is set to be a close election this fall. According to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, Tusk’s Civic Platform is currently trailing PiS. But the ruling party does not have enough support to guarantee it a majority in the next parliament.
The standing of PiS in the polls has weakened in 2023 in the wake of double-digit inflation and an economic slowdown. Both are expected to ease later this year, possibly giving the ruling party some room to outdo the opposition and secure an unprecedented third consecutive term in office.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is set for another five years as Turkey’s president after winning a divisive election that at one point seemed to threaten his hold on power.
The 69-year-old, who has dominated his country’s politics for two decades, was on track to win the runoff vote by 52 percent to 48 percent, with more than 99 percent of ballot boxes counted, beating opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, according to preliminary official results from Turkey’s Supreme Election Council.
In the first round of voting on May 14, the president also came out on top, defying the polls, but fell short of an outright majority, which triggered the runoff vote.
Erdoğan declared victory in front of his residence in Istanbul, singing his campaign song before his speech. “I thank our nation, which gave us the responsibility of governing again for the next five years,” he said.
“We have opened the door of Turkey’s century without compromising our democracy, development and our objectives,” he added.
Erdoğan also called on his supporters to take Istanbul back in the next local elections in 2024. His AK Party lost the city to the opposition in the 2019.
The triumphant president continued his campaign tactic of targeting LGBTQ+ people. “Can LGBT infiltrate AK Party or other members of the People’s Alliance [the broader coalition backing Erdoğan]? Family is sacred to us,” he said.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and French leader Emmanuel Macron were among the first world leaders to congratulate Erdoğan on his victory. Both leaders emphasized working together on world affairs. The government of Qatar and Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, also congratulated the re-elected president.
Erdoğan’s victory follows a campaign in which he accused his rival of being linked to terrorism and argued that the country faced chaos if the six-party opposition alliance came to power.
He has ruled Turkey since 2003, first as prime minister and then as president, and the election has been widely seen as a defining moment for the country.
Erdoğan’s supporters say he has made the country stronger, but his critics argue that his authoritarian approach to power is fatally undermining Turkey’s democracy.
Kılıçdaroğlu said it had been “the most unfair election process in years” in his own post-election speech.
“All the resources of the state have been mobilized for one political party. They have been spread at the feet of one man,” he said.
The opposition candidate gave no indication that he was planning to resign, adding that the struggle would go on.
Erdogan taunted his rival, saying: “Bye, bye, bye Kemal.”
By contrast with earlier elections in which the president and his Islamist-oriented AK party easily beat their secular rivals, Erdoğan headed into this May’s contest behind in the polls.
His reelection campaign had to contend with economic problems such as painfully high inflation — currently 43 percent — and a weak currency, as well as the legacy of February’s devastating earthquake. At least 50,000 died in the disaster and the government was criticized for poor construction standards and its own slow response.
But Erdoğan’s first round performance on May 14 put him five percentage points ahead of Kılıçdaroğlu and just a few hundred thousand votes short of an absolute majority.
The opposition candidate then shifted to a more nationalist stance, promising to deport millions of Syrians and Afghans, but that move proved ultimately unsuccessful. Sinan Oğan, the nationalist candidate who won 5 percent in the first round then endorsed Erdoğan, not Kılıçdaroğlu.
Political analysts say Erdoğan’s victory highlights the polarization in Turkish society, particularly divisions between Islamists and secularists. While much of Turkey’s coastline, the big cities and the largely Kurdish southeast voted for Kılıçdaroğlu, the heartlands strongly favored Erdoğan.
Opposition supporters also argue that the election reflected Erdoğan’s grip on power, including his near-total influence on the country’s media, which is largely controlled by groups friendly toward the governing party.
After Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy was backed by Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish party, Erdoğan accused his rival of being in league with Kurdish terrorists, showing a doctored video in the closing days of the campaign to make his case.
This article has been updated to include reaction from Erdoğan.
ATHENS — Greece’s conservative ruling party achieved a landslide victory in Sunday’s election, but it will have to wait for a second vote later this summer in its bid to secure an outright majority.
The New Democracy party of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis managed to gain a double-digit lead over its main rival, the left-wing Syriza party, and was missing only a few seats for a majority even with the new proportional representation system, according to early results.
“The political earthquake that occurred today calls on all of us to accelerate the process for a final governmental solution,” Mitsotakis declared Sunday evening from his party headquarters.
“The data from the ballot box is catalytic — it proves that New Democracy has the approval to govern independently and strongly and they demanded it emphatically, in an absolute way,” he said.
With 75 percent of the votes counted, New Democracy was poised to get 40.8 percent of the vote and 145 seats in the 300-seat parliament. Syriza was lagging with only 20.1 percent and 72 seats, while the Socialist Pasok party had 11.7 percent and 42 seats. The Communists KKE had 7.1 percent and 25 seats and the nationalist Greek Solution 4.5 percent and 16 seats.
Three smaller parties that initially looked poised to get 3 percent and top the threshold to make it to parliament, eventually scored lower. The participation rate was at 59.2 percent, the Interior Ministry reported.
Nonetheless, New Democracy didn’t gather the percentage of votes — 45 percent — needed to win an outright majority.
Mitsotakis managed to gain among voters despite his premiership being burdened with a spying scandal, spiraling inflation and mounting concerns over the rule of law.
“Our collective bodies will be convened immediately in order to evaluate the election results,” said Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras, calling the results extremely negative for his party.
However, he said “the election cycle is not yet over, as there will probably be a second election and therefore, we do not have the time to wait. We must immediately make all changes necessary, in order to give the best possible conditions to the next crucial and final electoral battle.”
“It is a devastating outcome for the opposition, especially for Syriza,” said Wolfango Piccoli, co-founder of risk analysis company Teneo.
“It will take a long time for the main opposition party to recover, leaving New Democracy in a position to dominate Greek politics and run the government with no meaningful scrutiny,” he said.
“The outcome of today’s vote will be welcome by investors, but ND’s dominance of the political system together with a weak opposition may raise concerns about clientelism and the quality of policy-making,” Piccoli added.
“The resounding victory of New Democracy sends a clear and undisputed message all over Europe,” said Thanasis Bakolas, the center-right European People’s Party secretary general, adding that this is the first time since 2000 in Greece that the incumbent government emerges stronger after its term.
“A message to Brussels? — Today’s electoral result is a clear message against all those outside Greece who have consistently questioned the quality of Greek democracy and the will of the Greek people,” Bakolas added.
Starting from Monday, each of the three leading parties will get the mandate to form a government, starting with the winner, before passing to the second and then third party. Each one will have up to three days to try to form a government.
If there is no agreement on a coalition, the parliament elected on Sunday will be sworn in and then dissolved, paving the way for a second round of elections to take place and a caretaker government will be sworn in.
Bolstered by his triumph, Mitsotakis is expected to immediately seek a second vote, rejecting the option of a coalition after this first round of voting.
That means Greeks will probably head to the ballot boxes again on June 25 or July 2, with New Democracy poised to gain an outright majority, thanks to a system that grants the winning party in the second round up to 50 bonus seats.
ATHENS — The biggest crime in Greece? The state of the police force.
That’s according to opposition politicians, who are putting security and law enforcement center-stage ahead of this month’s national election.
Syriza, the leftist main opposition party, accuses the conservative New Democracy, which is hoping for another term in office after the May 21 vote, of allowing the police to become run by organized crime gangs. The conservative government maintains a lead in the polls, although a second round will likely be needed and is penciled in for July 2.
“The Greek police are collaborating with the crime instead of fighting crime,” Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras said, adding that the “Greek mafia is in the police.”
For sure, Greek police have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons of late, thanks to the alleged involvement of police officials in mafia gangs profiting from illegal brothels and casinos; the murder of a 16-year-old Roma boy during a police chase; an alleged rape in a central Athens police department; and complaints of police brutality.
The Greek police force has a long history of corruption and excessive use of force but since New Democracy was elected in 2019 — at least in part on a law-and-order platform — complaints have soared.
In recent protests following a deadly train crash, police were accused of using unjustified violence during peaceful rallies, with several videos exposing the brutality. In one case, police officers sped toward a group of peaceful protestors on motorcycles and threw firecrackers at their feet. Prosecutors have ordered an investigation after a police tow truck drove at high speed into dumpsters being wheeled into the middle of a street by protesters.
The chief of police, Konstantinos Skoumas, was replaced in March. In an open letter, Skoumas defended his record and blamed politicians for forcing him out, saying he wouldn’t be “anyone’s scapegoat,” and arguing that his actions “caused strong resentment in certain centers of power, which, as a result, led to the violent termination of my term of office.”
The opposition blames both the police and the interior ministry that oversees it. “Impunity, the cultivation of an omertà mentality, the lack of accountability, are unfortunately characteristic of the way the Greek police operates, with the tolerance, if not the complicity, of the ministry,” said Giorgos Kaminis of the socialist Pasok party.
Minister of Civil Protection Takis Theodorikakos hit back, calling Syriza’s accusations “slanderous” and “nationally damaging,” as they could potentially scare away tourists.
“Our daily concern in practice is the safety of citizens, which is why we put an end to the lawlessness and delinquency,” he said on a recent visit to a police station. “This is why in 2022 the Greek police arrested 7,000 illegal migrants in the Attica [region that includes Athens], and now we are placing 600 new special guards at the Attica police stations,” Theodorikakos said, adding that Greece is a safe country.
Government spokesman Akis Skertsos said on Monday that there has been a reduction in all medium and low crime rates during the government’s term. Comparing January to August of 2019 to the same period in 2022 there has been a 15 percent reduction in thefts and 35 percent reduction in robberies.
Complaints on the rise
In 2022, preliminary data from the Greek Ombudsman showed a 50 percent rise in citizens’ complaints against the police compared to 2019, the last pre-pandemic year, and a 14 percent rise in incidents of racially motivated police actions.
“The tone set by the political as well as the natural, operational leadership of the security forces undoubtedly plays a vital role” in these increases, Greek Ombudsman Andreas Pottakis told POLITICO. Pottakis said the government’s attitude toward the police was “overly supportive” and could “be misinterpreted” by officers, making them think they have “carte blanche” to do whatever they want.
One of the government’s first tasks after taking office four years ago was to revive a police motorcycle unit that had been disbanded under the previous Syriza government over human rights violations. Many of the 1,500 recruits were drafted from the ranks of military special forces, bypassing the police academy.
New Democracy’s efforts to establish the first university police force in Europe also failed. Α special unit with 1,000 officers was set up in September but still hasn’t set foot on campuses. The idea is so unpopular that on the rare occasions officers from the unit have ventured near universities, they have been accompanied by riot police. Some 600 officers meant for the uni police have already been transferred to other departments, the police confirmed.
Last month, an officer fired his gun into the air outside Athens University of Economics and Business in the center of the capital during clashes with hooded, masked youths.
Theodorikakos, the interior minister, said such incidents happened because, in the pre-election period, some people want to “blow up the political climate.” He added that some people “even want him dead,” a comment that was heavily criticized by the opposition.
“Let’s stop playing games at the expense of the seriousness of the issues, as [Prime Minister Kyriakos] Mitsotakis did with the university police,” said Pasok leader Nikos Androulakis. “He made a body which was paid for by the Greek taxpayers, did nothing of substance, and instead of apologizing he continues doing the same.”
Abuses of power
Police have also been accused of resorting to violence and intimidation to hamper journalists covering demonstrations and the refugee crisis on the country’s islands.
“We have cases of police officers arresting and even stripping lawyers and journalists off their clothes or humiliating them even though their professional identity is made known,” Pottakis, the ombudsman, said. “Young people are mainly targeted. The age element seems to act as an encouragement.”
Last December a 16-year-old Roma boy died after being shot in the head by police chasing him after he fled a petrol station allegedly without paying for €20 of fuel.
A 19-year-old girl reported she had been raped in a station by two policemen who filmed their actions in the main central police department last year. The officers involved said the sex was consensual. They have been suspended pending an investigation.
“We are heading from one fiasco to another,” said Syriza MP Christos Spirtzis. “Where are the internal investigations that have been conducted? There is no information, no one has been punished.”
Such investigations have, however, been launched. In January, Supreme Court prosecutor Isidoros Dogiakos and Interior Minister Theodorikakos ordered an investigation into the relationship between senior police officials and members of the mafia, after leaked conversations showed gang leaders negotiating with officers about continuing their activities undisturbed.
Posters of the communist party in Thessaloniki | Sakis Mitrolodis/AFP via Getty Images
This was not the first report linking the police with organized crime.
Active and retired police officers stand accused, together with mafia members, of widespread corruption, with the criminal organization alleged to be running a protection racket involving 900 businesses — from clubs to brothels and casinos — with a turnover of at least €1 million per month.
Investigative website Reporters United revealed that one official implicated in the racket was promoted to director of the Attica Security Department, one of the most important positions in the fight against organized crime. Police later said they weren’t aware of the allegations against the officer.
“Citizens’ trust relationship with the police is broken when those who break their oath are not punished,” the ombudsman said.
It’s now easy to forget that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was once hailed as the paragon of a “Muslim democrat,” who could serve as a model to the entire Islamic world.
In the early 2000s, hopes ran high about the charismatic, lanky, former football striker, who received only one red card in his playing career, unsurprisingly for giving an earful to a referee. The man from the working-class Istanbul neighborhood of Kasımpaşa promised something new: Finally, there was a master-juggler, who could balance Islamism, parliamentary democracy, progressive welfare, NATO membership and EU-oriented reforms.
That optimism feels a world away now, as Turkey heads into crunch elections on May 14 marked by debate over the centralization of powers under an increasingly authoritarian and divisive leader — dubbed the reis, or captain. Prominent opponents are in jail, the media and judiciary are largely under Erdoğan’s thrall and the kid from Kasımpaşa now rules 85 million people from a monumental 1,150-room presidential complex he built, commonly referred to as the Saray, meaning palace.
Little wonder, then, that the opposition is focusing its campaign on undoing the “one-man regime.” The six-party opposition bloc is vowing to take a pick-ax to the all-powerful presidential system Erdoğan introduced in 2017 and to shift to a new type of pluralist parliamentary democracy. (POLITICO’s Poll of Polls puts the contest on a knife edge, meaning there will probably be a second round in the presidential vote on May 28.)
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the opposition leader challenging Erdoğan for the top job, describes the restoration of Turkish democracy as the “first pillar” of the election race. “In a manner that contradicts its own history … our veteran parliament’s legislative power has been consigned to the grip of the one-man regime,” Kılıçdaroğlu, an avuncular, soft-spoken former bureaucrat, said in a speech on April 23 commemorating the founding of parliament.
Know your onions
But is this talk of democratic restoration seizing the imagination in an election that is, quite literally, about the price of onions and cucumbers?
Turkey’s brutal cost of living crisis is the No. 1 electoral battleground. Kılıçdaroğlu hit a nerve when, onion in hand, he delivered a warning from his modest kitchen — no Saray for Mr. Kemal — that the cost of a kilo of onions would spike to 100 lira (€4.67) from 30 lira now, if the president stays in power.
Stung, Erdoğan insisted his government had solved Turkey’s food affordability problems, saying: “In this country, there is no onion problem, no potato problem, no cucumber problem.” But most Turks know Kılıçdaroğlu’s arithmetic is not outlandish; he is an accountant by training, after all. Annual inflation hit a record high of 85.5 percent last October, and ran at just over 50 percent in March. The Turkish lira has plunged to 19.4 to the dollar from about 6 to the dollar in early 2020.
In contrast to those bread-and-butter campaign issues, the main thrust of the opposition’s manifesto for switching power away from the presidency sounds legalistic. There are provisions to end the president’s effective veto power, ensure a non-partisan presidency and impose a one-term limit. Parliament will be strengthened by measures ranging from a lower threshold for a party to enter the assembly to greater use of independent experts in committees.
Important reforms, certainly, but will they strike a chord with voters? They could well do. İlke Toygür, professor at the Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, observed that while constitutional reforms might not be the “daily conversation,” the big themes of one-man rule and Turkey’s historical attachment to parliament did resonate.
One-man rule, for example, is widely linked to mismanagement of the economy and skyrocketing prices, she noted. Erdoğan has been lambasted for pouring fuel onto the inflationary fire by advocating for slashing interest rates — a stance euphemistically described as “unorthodox.”
“If you link everything to each other and link the one-man rule to the cost of living crisis, to the democracy crisis, and to all the problems in foreign policy, then you are defining this system and you are providing an alternative,” she said.
Toygür also stressed parliament played a crucial role in creating Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s independent Turkish republic a century ago, and that still counted. “Parliament has a very strong symbolic value in Turkey,” she said, adding that voters appreciated teams in decision-making, something that Kılıçdaroğlu is playing up. “One of the biggest complaints now is that people lost their links to decision-making candidates.”
In stark contrast to the image of Erdoğan as the lone almighty reis, Kılıçdaroğlu portrays himself as building consensus, ready to draw on a broad pool of talent. In videos, he shows himself discussing earthquake-resistant construction, education and nutrition with high-profile mayors, Mansur Yavaș from Ankara and Ekrem İmamoğlu from Istanbul, his vice-presidents in the wings.
What’s more, Kılıçdaroğlu has pushed this vision of himself as an inclusive leader to a dramatic new level by publicly declaring himself to be an Alevi, a member of Turkey’s main religious minority that long suffered discrimination. His Twitter declaration on his identity, in which he called on young Turks to uproot the country’s “divisive system,” went viral. It’s a risky gambit against a populist president from the Sunni mainstream, but the message is clear: Kılıçdaroğlu is styling himself as the pluralist antidote to Erdoğan’s polarizing politics. The humble 74-year-old may be a bit dull after the caustic current leader, but the opposition’s gamble is that’s what Turkey needs.
Power to the president
Most observers looking back to identify a turning point where Erdoğan decided to centralize power around himself select the Gezi Park protests of 2013, when an unusually socially diverse band of demonstrators sought to stop a green space in Istanbul from being bulldozed for a shopping mall.
The protests — eventually smashed with tear gas and water cannon — swelled into a nationwide roar against Erdoğan’s cronyism and strongman style. Demir Murat Seyrek, adjunct professor at the Brussels School of Governance, said it was the first time Erdoğan felt “the threat was against him” rather than the ruling AK party.
Turkish President and People’s Alliance’s presidential candidate Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | Adem Atlan/AFP via Getty Images
The final straw was an attempted coup in 2016 — the facts of which remain opaque — that pushed Erdoğan to hold a referendum in April 2017 on shifting to a presidential system. He won by the narrowest of margins (51.4 percent) and the opposition still disputes the result, not least because the vote was held during a post-coup state of emergency.
Seyrek noted the irony that the presidential system also had downsides for Erdoğan, particularly as he requires 50 percent of votes (+1) to stay in office. Now deserted by bigwigs from his AK party’s early days — former President Abdullah Gül and former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu have turned against him — he has to find increasingly extreme partners for his coalition to make up the numbers. “Each time, he wins by losing political power to other parties. He is winning by sharing power with more and more people,” he remarked.
A hardened political brawler, Erdoğan is punching back hard against the accusations that he’s the man undermining Turkish democracy.
As he has done for years, Erdoğan is turning the tables and casts himself as the voice of the majority, underlining Islamic propriety and family values, while saying his adversaries are in hock to terrorists, the imperialist West, murky international high-finance and LGBTQ+ organizations. Mainstream rival parties are dismissed as fascists and perverts, and he predicts his voters will “burst” the ballot boxes with their tide of support on May 14.
In an episode typical of Erdoğan’s combative instincts, he scented blood when Kılıçdaroğlu was photographed stepping on a prayer rug in his shoes at the end of March. Although his rival apologized for this unwitting accident, the president whipped up a crowd to boo him, accusing Kılıçdaroğlu of taking his instructions from Fethullah Gülen, the U.S.-based preacher and former AK party ally, whom Erdoğan now accuses of inciting the failed coup in 2016.
Clutching a prayer rug himself, Erdoğan intoned through his microphone: “This prayer rug is not for standing on with shoes. God willing, we’ll be able to perform the prayer of thanks on this prayer rug on May 15.”
Opposition politicians know full well they can easily be typecast by Erdoğan as reactionary voices of an old elite. That’s why they are being careful not to describe their proposed constitutional overhaul of the presidency as turning back the clock to some fictional glory days, but rather as creating something new: What the opposition manifesto calls “a truly pluralistic democracy” that “has never been possible” before.
Free but not fair?
Given the fears about Erdoğan’s lurch toward authoritarianism, speculation is intense over how fair the elections will be, and whether Erdoğan can rig them. Indeed, Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu only fanned the concerns that the government could crack down on the democratic process by describing May 14 as an attempted “political coup” by the West — hardly words to be taken lightly given Turkey’s history of putsches.
With the full resources of the state and pliant media at his disposal, the president can certainly command disproportionate influence. In only the past few days, for example, Erdoğan has been able to offer free Black Sea gas as a pre-election perk.
But Seyrek at the Brussels School of Governance stressed that voting itself in Turkey should never be compared with Russia or Belarus. He argued the vote in each polling station would be closely monitored by all the political parties and other civilian observers. “I still feel in Turkey, what you can do against the result of elections is quite limited,” he said.
The consensus is that Erdoğan will be unable to fix the result in the case of a significant defeat. The greater danger, as noted by several analysts, is that he could attempt some high-risk stratagem in case of a tight result, demanding a recount or calling a state of emergency in case of some diversionary “incident.” That would, however, only inflame the country’s febrile politics just as Ankara needs stability to attract foreign investors and resuscitate the economy.
The more surreal idea — but not an implausible one now — is that Erdoğan could tactically see the time is ripe to lead the opposition and attack Kılıçdaroğlu’s new government. The new president would be highly vulnerable to Erdoğan’s vitriolic rhetoric as he tries to hold together a fissiparous coalition in the teeth of an economic crisis. Paradoxically, though, Seyrek noted that the AK party members in opposition could even support reforms to shake up the presidency and ensure media freedoms, as that would be in their interest. That could prove important as constitutional change would need a hefty parliamentary majority.
Or would Erdoğan simply take umbrage in defeat and quit the country?
Seyrek found that inconceivable.
“In his mind, he is a second Atatürk, he would rather die than escape.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) are hoping to remain at the head of the table in what, according to recent polls, is expected to be the closest race in the country’s recent electoral history.
After two decades in power, a win for Erdoğan would consolidate his vision of the future of the country, as well as the presidential system he ushered in.
Meanwhile, the main opposition coalition is made up of an eclectic mix of six political parties. First and foremost, a win for them would mean a return to a parliamentary system of governance.
Looming concerns include how exactly voting will take place in the earthquake zone, how voting will be monitored, and whether Erdoğan would concede and step down if he loses.
Here’s what you need to know.
How does it all work?
Around 61 million voters from across Turkey’s 87 electoral districts will head to the polls on Sunday, May 14.
Meanwhile, some 3.4 million eligible overseas voters — 1.5 million of them in Germany alone — will likely have already cast their ballots.
Polling stations — which are set up in public schools — open at 8 a.m. on election day and close at 5 p.m. At 9 p.m. media can start reporting, and unofficial results are expected to start trickling in around midnight.
As a clearer picture emerges early Monday morning, there could be a victory announcement if one candidate has clearly won — although official results from the country’s Supreme Election Council (YSK) could take a few days.
If no presidential candidate receives over 50 percent of the votes, however, a second round will be held between the two top candidates on Sunday, May 28. If that happens, overseas voting will be held from May 20 to 24.
What’s on the ballot?
The country’s parliamentary and presidential elections take place at the same time, with voters receiving two separate ballots.
There are four candidates on the presidential ballot, who have either been nominated by a party that passed the 5 percent threshold in the previous parliamentary election or secured 100,000 signatures from voters. However, only three of them will actually be running, as one of them — Muharrem İnce — withdrew after ballots were printed, just three days before the election.
The selection for the country’s 600-seat Grand National Assembly is a more complicated affair. The YSK has allowed 26 political parties and 151 local independent candidates to run — though not all parties are running in every province. For parties to enter parliament, they have to pass a 7 percent electoral threshold — or be part of an alliance that does. There is no such limit for independent candidates.
What exactly does such a crowded ballot look like? An unwieldy meter-long sheet of paper!
Who’s running for parliament?
Of the 26 parties and five alliances on the ballot, here are the major players:
The People’s Alliance: Representing the current parliamentary majority, the alliance consists of the ruling conservative AKP, the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the Islamist and ultranationalist Great Unity Party, and the Islamist New Welfare Party — with all four parties appearing on the ballot.
However, many of the AKP’s other former partners have deserted it of late, leading the alliance to turn to smaller parties for help — including the Free Cause Party, which is associated with the Kurdish Hizbullah.
The Nation Alliance: Also known as the “Table of Six,” the main opposition alliance brings together a disparate array of ideologies, all focused on bringing back the country’s parliamentary system, as well as pledges to swiftly reduce inflation, increase per capita income, return Syrian and Afghan refugees back to their countries, and resume talks on EU membership.
The alliance features the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), the hard-right nationalist splinter Good Party (İYİ), the center-right Democracy and Progress Party, and the Future Party — both led by AKP defectors — as well as the Democrat Party and the Felicity Party. While the Good Party will be appearing on the ballot, all other coalition members will be running under the CHP banner.
The Labor and Freedom Alliance: This left-leaning alliance technically consists of the Green Left Party (YSP) and the Workers’ Party of Turkey (TIP). However, the YSP itself boasts candidates from four different parties, including the pro-Kurdish Democratic People’s Party (HDP) — the third-largest opposition party in the country. The HDP isn’t running candidates for parliament under its own name due to a pending court case that could see it shut down.
Who’s running for president?
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: The joint candidate of the People’s Alliance, Erdoğan’s campaign has emphasized his vision for the “Century of Turkey,” showcasing projects realized throughout his years in power, as well as plans to rebuild areas affected by the earthquakes. If he wins, this would be Erdoğan’s third term, which technically goes against Turkey’s constitution. However, a YSK ruling stated that his first term could be counted as starting in 2018 (when the new presidential system came in) rather than when he actually took office in 2014. That means he can run again.
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu: The joint candidate of the Nation Alliance, the head of the CHP is Erdoğan’s main rival. Kılıçdaroğlu has received open backing from the HDP — as well as the rest of the Labor and Freedom Alliance — and is running on a platform of justice and accountability, promising to reverse many of Erdoğan’s policies, his consolidation of power under the presidency, and bring “spring” to the country. Though often characterized as mild-mannered, the former bureaucrat has also been known to dial up the rhetoric when criticizing Erdoğan’s “one-man rule.”
Sinan Oğan: A former MHP member, the final candidate is a nationalist nominee from the right-wing Ancestral Alliance. Though he is unlikely to win, Oğan can divert some of the nationalist vote, particularly from those who find the Good Party to have shifted too close to the center and the MHP too far to the right. Oğan is also in support of returning the country to a parliamentary system.
How are the votes counted?
According to the YSK, once polls close, the counting of votes in every single ballot box is supervised by a four-to-seven-person committee. Registered volunteers and citizens are also allowed to observe.
Each individual ballot is then opened, shown to the committee and then read aloud. As you can imagine, this takes a long time. Once everyone is happy, it’s off to the local district’s electoral council accompanied by security forces.
The votes are then entered into the YSK’s online system in front of party representatives. And the official count is later verified by political parties and volunteer organizations.
Will voters show up?
Turkey usually boasts high voter turnout, and this year is projected to be one of its highest yet, with a recent poll suggesting it could be around 84 percent. There will also be close to 5 million first-time voters, and overseas voting has seen higher participation than in recent years.
Of course, one of the biggest concerns is how the elections will be held in the earthquake zone — formerly home to 14 percent of the country’s registered voters and once an AKP stronghold. Of the millions that have left the region since the disaster, only a fraction were able to move their voter registrations in time, according to the YSK.
Those who missed the tight deadline will now have to return to the region to vote, and special polling centers will be set up where public buildings are no longer standing. In order to help aid those in need and boost turnout, campaigns will be running buses to the region, and civil society organizations have started Askıda Bilet — ticket on the hook — a campaign collecting donations to buy bus tickets to the region. However, most votes in the region likely won’t be cast.
In the run-up to Sunday’s too-close-to-call election, he has ramped up his poisonous invective against homosexuality, as he seeks to shore up his conservative Islamist base. Almost every other speech from the campaign trail accuses the opposition of undermining family values and of being in the thrall of improbably powerful LGBTQ+ networks — sometimes with hints they are run by paymasters abroad.
“The AK Party has never been an LGBT supporter,” Erdoğan roared at a recent Istanbul rally, referring to his governing party. “We believe in the sanctity of the family. Family is sacred.”
Adding a menacing note, he followed up with: “So are we ready to bury these LGBT supporters in the ballot box?”
To some extent, the homophobic focus of the campaign is easily explicable. Increasingly deserted by his early supporters, Erdoğan is having to form coalition partnerships with more extreme Islamists in this year’s elections.
But even so, his language smacks of a fixation, and an attempt to divert attention from the country’s most pressing ailments — including a snowballing cost of living crisis and scorching inflation.
Diversionary tactics
Fulden Ergen, editor of Velvele.Net, an online debate platform for LGBTQ+ rights, said she was taken aback by the ubiquity of Erdoğan’s propaganda against the LGBTQ+ community in this year’s campaign.
She reckoned the attacks were an attempt to mask how few answers to Turkey’s profound problems the AK Party now has.
“I was not expecting them to be this devoid of policies and just talking about LGBTI,” she said. “The alliance does not have much to give people anymore,” she added, referring to the conservative coalition backing the president. “They don’t know how to deal with the economic crisis. They have no policies left, I see this campaign as a defeat.”
Though he may be running out of ideas, Erdoğan could still win. And that is now a serious concern to LGBTQ+ people.
Life is already tough, and could get significantly worse. LGBTQ+ flags are banned, gatherings are arbitrarily blocked by the government and participants in pride parades are regularly attacked or detained by police. The fear is that their organizations could now be made illegal, and — in the worst case scenario — that laws to protect families could be extended to outlaw homosexuality itself.
Activists say that if Erdoğan stays in power, violence could follow his hate speech.
An anti-LGBTQ+ rally in Istanbul in 2022 | Chris McGrath/Getty Images
One of the dangers is that his government could use security laws to crack down on homosexual relations — casting them as part of a foreign conspiracy. The government is playing on perceptions that “people don’t believe LGBTI can be from Turkey,” Ergen said.
One of the biggest setbacks for women and LGBTQ+ people has been Turkey’s 2021 withdrawal from the — ironically named — Istanbul Convention, which is intended to prevent, prosecute and eliminate violence against women and promote gender equality.
Domestic violence is a severe problem that kills at least one woman every day in Turkey. According to data from the Monument Counter, a website that commemorates women who lost their lives to domestic violence, 824 women have been killed in just the past two years.
Gender parity is another failing across the country’s political spectrum. According to the country’s Women’s Platform for Equality, a rights group that has been tracing the candidates on the various parties’ electoral lists, a mere 117 female deputies are set to be elected to Turkey’s 600-seat parliament.
‘I have seen many Erdoğans in my life’
Zeynep Esmeray Özadikti, who has been an activist for trans rights for 30 years, looks set to be an exception to that trend. She is a candidate for the Workers’ Party of Turkey and the first openly trans woman with a good chance of making it to parliament.
In a café in Kurtuluş, a neighborhood in Istanbul where there are significant numbers of trans voters, Esmeray told POLITICO that, if elected, she would fight for the rights of LGBTQ+ people against discrimination, hate crimes and violence. “I am getting very positive feedback from the streets,” she said. “If we can judge it by looking at the streets then I’ll definitely be getting into the parliament.”
If Erdoğan stays in power, Esmeray believes he will take the country in a more religiously conservative direction, even aiming for Sharia law.
Ergen, the Velvele.net editor, echoed Esmeray’s line of thought. She feared that Article 10 in Turkey’s constitution — a part of the national charter that gives some vague protection to gender equality — might be doctored, paving the way to the possible criminalization of homosexuality.
“This is my biggest fear,” she says. “If they win, they are going to do it.”
Still, the fear of Erdoğan does not mean the LGBTQ+ community feels completely protected by the opposition, whose candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is leading in the polls ahead of Sunday’s first round vote.
Ergen thinks the right-wing parties within the wide-ranging opposition alliance could also lobby to make life harder for LGBTQ+ groups.
Kılıçdaroğlu himself is fairly guarded in his LGBTQ+ remarks, knowing that the government could easily turn the subject against him.
To Erdoğan, Turkey’s LGBTQ+ community represents “deviant structures” | Burak Kara/Getty Images
He is, however, committed to a trajectory toward EU norms. When asked for his stance by POLITICO, he said: “We defend all human rights. It is our common duty to defend human rights. Democracy demands it. You cannot alienate people based on their beliefs, identities and lifestyles, you have to respect everyone.”
Both Esmeray and Ergen believed the priority should be for Turkey to return the Istanbul Convention to reinforce some basic freedoms.
And both reckoned Turkey’s population was ahead of its politicians.
“I am more optimistic about people, not political parties,” said Ergen, who based her hopes on the breadth of civil society activities in Turkey.
Esmeray added: “I have seen many Erdoğans in my life. If he wins, we will continue fighting. If it comes to that, I will face him and tell him to kill me.”
For Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, next month’s election is of massive historical significance.
It falls 100 years after the foundation of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s secular republic and, if Erdoğan wins, he will be empowered to put even more of his stamp on the trajectory of a geostrategic heavyweight of 85 million people. The fear in the West is that he will see this as his moment to push toward an increasingly religiously conservative model, characterized by regional confrontationalism, with greater political powers centered around himself.
The election will weigh heavily on security in Europe and the Middle East. Who is elected stands to define: Turkey’s role in the NATO alliance; its relationship with the U.S., the EU and Russia; migration policy; Ankara’s role in the war in Ukraine; and how it handles tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The May 14 vote is expected to be the most hotly contested race in Erdoğan’s 20-year rule — as the country grapples with years of economic mismanagement and the fallout from a devastating earthquake.
He will face an opposition aligned behind Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, nicknamed the “Turkish Gandhi,” who is promising big changes. Polls suggest Kılıçdaroğlu has eked out a lead, but Erdoğan is a hardened election campaigner, with the full might of the state and its institutions at his back.
“There will be a change from an authoritarian single-man rule, towards a kind of a teamwork, which is a much more democratic process,” Ünal Çeviköz, chief foreign policy adviser to Kılıçdaroğlu told POLITICO. “Kılıçdaroğlu will be the maestro of that team.”
Here are the key foreign policy topics in play in the vote:
EU and Turkish accession talks
Turkey’s opposition is confident it can unfreeze European Union accession talks — at a standstill since 2018 over the country’s democratic backsliding — by introducing liberalizing reforms in terms of rule of law, media freedoms and depoliticization of the judiciary.
The opposition camp also promises to implement European Court of Human Rights decisions calling for the release of two of Erdoğan’s best-known jailed opponents: the co-leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party Selahattin Demirtaş and human rights defender Osman Kavala.
“This will simply give the message to all our allies, and all the European countries, that Turkey is back on track to democracy,” Çeviköz said.
Even under a new administration, however, the task of reopening the talks on Turkey’s EU accession is tricky.
Turkey’s opposition is aligned behind Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, nicknamed the “Turkish Gandhi” | Burak Kara/Getty Images
Anti-Western feeling in Turkey is very strong across the political spectrum, argued Wolfango Piccoli, co-founder of risk analysis company Teneo.
“Foreign policy will depend on the coherence of the coalition,” he said. “This is a coalition of parties who have nothing in common apart from the desire to get rid of Erdoğan. They’ve got a very different agenda, and this will have an impact in foreign policy.”
“The relationship is largely comatose, and has been for some time, so, they will keep it on life support,” he said, adding that any new government would have so many internal problems to deal with that its primary focus would be domestic.
Europe also seems unprepared to handle a new Turkey, with a group of countries — most prominently France and Austria — being particularly opposed to the idea of rekindling ties.
“They are used to the idea of a non-aligned Turkey, that has departed from EU norms and values and is doing its own course,” said Aslı Aydıntaşbaş a visiting fellow at Brookings. “If the opposition forms a government, it will seek a European identity and we don’t know Europe’s answer to that; whether it could be accession or a new security framework that includes Turkey.”
“Obviously the erosion of trust has been mutual,” said former Turkish diplomat Sinan Ülgen, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank, arguing that despite reticence about Turkish accession, there are other areas where a complementary and mutually beneficiary framework could be built, like the customs union, visa liberalization, cooperation on climate, security and defense, and the migration agreement.
The opposition will indeed seek to revisit the 2016 agreement with the EU on migration, Çeviköz said.
“Our migration policy has to be coordinated with the EU,” he said. “Many countries in Europe see Turkey as a kind of a pool, where migrants coming from the east can be contained and this is something that Turkey, of course cannot accept,” he said but added. “This doesn’t mean that Turkey should open its borders and make the migrants flow into Europe. But we need to coordinate and develop a common migration policy.”
NATO and the US
After initially imposing a veto, Turkey finally gave the green light to Finland’s NATO membership on March 30.
But the opposition is also pledging to go further and end the Turkish veto on Sweden, saying that this would be possible by the alliance’s annual gathering on July 11. “If you carry your bilateral problems into a multilateral organization, such as NATO, then you are creating a kind of a polarization with all the other members of NATO with your country,” Çeviköz said.
A protester pushes a cart with a RRecep Tayyip Erdoğan doll during an anti-NATO and anti-Turkey demonstration in Sweden | Jonas Gratzer/Getty Images
A reelected Erdoğan could also feel sufficiently empowered to let Sweden in, many insiders argue. NATO allies did, after all, play a significant role in earthquake aid. Turkish presidential spokesperson İbrahim Kalın says that the door is not closed to Sweden, but insists the onus is on Stockholm to determine how things proceed.
Turkey’s military relationship with the U.S. soured sharply in 2019 when Ankara purchased the Russian-made S-400 missile system, a move the U.S. said would put NATO aircraft flying over Turkey at risk. In response, the U.S. kicked Ankara out of the F-35 jet fighter program and slapped sanctions on the Turkish defense industry.
A meeting in late March between Kılıçdaroğlu and the U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Jeff Flake infuriated Erdoğan, who saw it as an intervention in the elections and pledged to “close the door” to the U.S. envoy. “We need to teach the United States a lesson in this elections,” the irate president told voters.
In its policy platform, the opposition makes a clear reference to its desire to return to the F-35 program.
Russia and the war in Ukraine
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkey presented itself as a middleman. It continues to supply weapons — most significantly Bayraktar drones — to Ukraine, while refusing to sanction Russia. It has also brokered a U.N. deal that allows Ukrainian grain exports to pass through the blockaded Black Sea.
Highlighting his strategic high-wire act on Russia, after green-lighting Finland’s NATO accession and hinting Sweden could also follow, Erdoğan is now suggesting that Turkey could be the first NATO member to host Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Maybe there is a possibility” that Putin may travel to Turkey on April 27 for the inauguration of the country’s first nuclear power reactor built by Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom, he said.
Çeviköz said that under Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership, Turkey would be willing to continue to act as a mediator and extend the grain deal, but would place more stress on Ankara’s status as a NATO member.
“We will simply emphasize the fact that Turkey is a member of NATO, and in our discussions with Russia, we will certainly look for a relationship among equals, but we will also remind Russia that Turkey is a member of NATO,” he said.
Turkey’s relationship with Russia has become very much driven by the relationship between Putin and Erdoğan and this needs to change, Ülgen argued.
Turkey brokered a U.N. deal that allows Ukrainian grain exports to pass through the blockaded Black Sea | Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images
“No other Turkish leader would have the same type of relationship with Putin, it would be more distant,” he said. “It does not mean that Turkey would align itself with the sanctions; it would not. But nonetheless, the relationship would be more transparent.”
Syria and migration
The role of Turkey in Syria is highly dependent on how it can address the issue of Syrians living in Turkey, the opposition says.
Turkey hosts some 4 million Syrians and many Turks, battling a major cost-of-living crisis, are becoming increasingly hostile. Kılıçdaroğlu has pledged to create opportunities and the conditions for the voluntary return of Syrians.
“Our approach would be to rehabilitate the Syrian economy and to create the conditions for voluntary returns,” Çeviköz said, adding that this would require an international burden-sharing, but also establishing dialogue with Damascus.
Erdoğan is also trying to establish a rapprochement with Syria but Syrian President Bashar al-Assad says he will only meet the Turkish president when Ankara is ready to completely withdraw its military from northern Syria.
“A new Turkish government will be more eager to essentially shake hands with Assad,” said Ülgen. “But this will remain a thorny issue because there will be conditions attached on the side of Syria to this normalization.”
However, Piccoli from Teneo said voluntary returns of Syrians was “wishful thinking.”
“These are Syrians who have been living in Turkey for more than 10 years, their children have been going to school in Turkey from day one. So, the pledges of sending them back voluntarily, it is very questionable to what extent they can be implemented.”
Greece and the East Med
Turkey has stepped up its aggressive rhetoric against Greece in recent months, with the Erdoğan even warning that a missile could strike Athens.
But the prompt reaction by the Greek government and the Greek community to the recent devastating earthquakes in Turkey and a visit by the Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias created a new backdrop for bilateral relations.
A Turkish drill ship before it leaves for gas exploration | Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images
Dendias, along with his Turkish counterpart Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, announced that Turkey would vote for Greece in its campaign for a non-permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council for 2025-26 and that Greece would support the Turkish candidacy for the General Secretariat of the International Maritime Organization.
In another sign of a thaw, Greek Defense Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos and Migration Minister Notis Mitarachi visited Turkey this month, with Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar saying he hoped that the Mediterranean and Aegean would be a “sea of friendship” between the two countries. Akar said he expected a moratorium with Greece in military and airforce exercises in the Aegean Sea between June 15 and September 15.
“Both countries are going to have elections, and probably they will have the elections on the same day. So, this will open a new horizon in front of both countries,” Çeviköz said.
“The rapprochement between Turkey and Greece in their bilateral problems [in the Aegean], will facilitate the coordination in addressing the other problems in the eastern Mediterranean, which is a more multilateral format,” he said. Disputes over maritime borders and energy exploration, for example, are common.
As far as Cyprus is concerned, Çeviköz said that it is important for Athens and Ankara not to intervene into the domestic politics of Cyprus and the “two peoples on the island should be given an opportunity to look at their problems bilaterally.”
However, analysts argue that Greece, Cyprus and the EastMed are fundamental for Turkey’s foreign policy and not much will change with another government. The difference will be more one of style.
“The approach to manage those differences will change very much. So, we will not hear aggressive rhetoric like: ‘We will come over one night,’” said Ülgen. “We’ll go back to a more mature, more diplomatic style of managing differences and disputes.”
“The NATO framework will be important, and the U.S. would have to do more in terms of re-establishing the sense of balance in the Aegean,” said Aydıntaşbaş. But, she argued, “you just cannot normalize your relations with Europe or the U.S., unless you’re willing to take that step with Greece.”
Emmanuel Macron is paying a high price for his push on pension reform as a survey on Sunday showed the French president is facing a new low in popularity — as low as during the protests of the so-called Yellow Jackets.
As the French take to the streets to protest against Macron’s pension reform, 70 percent of respondents said they are dissatisfied with the president, according to the Ifop barometer published by Le Journal du Dimanche. Macron’s popularity rating fell by 4 points in one month, it showed.
Since December, Macron has suffered a substantial drop of 8 points, and he now sees only 28 percent satisfied and 70 percent dissatisfied, according to the poll carried out, Le Figaro emphasized, between March 9 and 16.
That is the same period as the negotiations that finally led the Elysée to shun parliament and impose the unpopular pension reforms via a special constitutional power, the so-called Article 49.3, which provides that the government can pass a bill without a vote at the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, after a deliberation at a Cabinet meeting.
The procedure has been used in the past by various governments. But this time it’s prompting a lot of criticism because of the massive public opposition to the proposed reform, which raises the legal retirement age from 62 to 64 years. Some media stress that recent opinion polls have shown that a majority of the French are opposed to this type of procedure.
“You have to go back to the end of the Yellow Jackets crisis in early 2019 to find comparable levels of unpopularity,” writes Le Journal du Dimanche commenting the survey. The outlet also stresses that dissatisfaction with Macron crosses all categories, the younger generations as well as the blue- and white-collar workers.
A total of 169 people, including 122 in Paris, were taken in custody for questioning on Saturday evening in France during demonstrations marred by tensions between the police and the protesters, according to French media citing figures communicated on Sunday by the Ministry of the Interior.
BRUSSELS — The European Parliament’s Socialists are warily eyeing their colleagues and assistants, wondering which putative ally might turn out to be a liar as new details emerge in a growing cash-for-favors scandal.
Long-simmering geographic divisions within the group, Parliament’s second largest, are fueling mistrust and discord. Members are at odds over how forcefully to defend their implicated colleagues. Others are nursing grievances over how the group’s leadership handled months of concerns about their lawmaker, Eva Kaili, who’s now detained pending trial.
Publicly, the group has shown remarkable solidarity during the so-called Qatargate scandal, which involves allegations that foreign countries bribed EU lawmakers. Socialists and Democrats (S&D) chief Iratxe García has mustered a unified response, producing an ambitious ethics reform proposal and launching an internal investigation without drawing an open challenge to her leadership. Yet as the Parliament’s center left ponders how to win back the public’s trust ahead of next year’s EU election, the trust among the members themselves is fraying.
“I feel betrayed by these people that are colleagues of our political group,” said Mohammed Chahim, a Dutch S&D MEP. “As far as I am concerned, we are all political victims, and I hope we can get the truth out in the open.”
S&D MEPs are grappling not only with a sense of personal betrayal but also a fear that the links to corruption could squash otherwise promising electoral prospects.
Social democrats were looking forward to running in 2024 on the bread-and-butter issues at the top of minds around the bloc amid persistent inflation, buoyed by Olaf Scholz’s rise in Germany and the Continent-wide popularity of Finland’s Sanna Marin. Now, the group’s appeal to voters’ pocketbooks could be overshadowed by suitcases filled with cash.
“We were completely unaware of what was going on,” said García, vowing that the group’s internal inquiry will figure out what went wrong. “We have to let the people responsible [for the investigation] work.”
The ‘darkest plenary’
Shock, anger and betrayal reverberated through the 145-strong caucus in early December last year when Belgian police began arresting senior S&D figures, chief among them a former Italian MEP Pier Antonio Panzeri and Eva Kaili, a rising star from Greece who had barely completed a year as one of Parliament’s 14 vice presidents.
“The Qatargate revelations came as a terrible shock to S&D staff and MEPs,” an S&D spokesperson said. “Many felt betrayed, their trust abused and broken. Anyone who has ever become a victim of criminals will understand it takes time to heal from such an experience.”
When the S&D gathered for a Parliament session in Strasbourg days after the first arrests, few members took it harder than the group’s president, García, who at one point broke down in tears, according to three people present.
“We are all not just political machines, but also human beings,” said German MEP Gabriele Bischoff, an S&D vice chair in her first term. “To adapt to such a crisis, and to deal with it, it’s not easy.”
“I mean, also, you trusted some of these people,” she said.
An Italian court ruled that the daughter of former MEP Pier Antonio Panzeri can be extradited to Belgium | European Union
In Strasbourg the group showed zero appetite to watch the judicial process play out, backing a move to remove Kaili from her vice presidency role. (She has, through a lawyer, consistently maintained her innocence.)
The group’s leadership also pressured MEPs who in any way were connected to the issues or people in the scandal to step back from legislative work, even if they faced no charges.
“It was of course the darkest plenary we’ve had,” said Andreas Schieder, an Austrian S&D MEP who holds a top role on the committee charged with battling foreign interference post Qatargate. “But we took the right decisions quickly.”
The S&D hierarchy swiftly suspended Kaili from the group in December and meted out the same treatment to two other MEPs who would later be drawn into the probe.
But now many S&D MEPs are asking themselves how it was possible that a cluster of people exerted such influence across the Socialist group, how Kaili rose so quickly to the vice presidency and how so much allegedly corrupt behavior went apparently unnoticed for years.
Like family
The deep interpersonal connections between those accused and the rest of the group were part of what made it all so searing for the S&D tribe.
Belgian authorities’ initial sweep nabbed not only Panzeri and Kaili but also Kaili’s partner, a longtime parliamentary assistant named Francesco Giorgi, who had spent years working for Panzeri. Suddenly every former Panzeri assistant still in Parliament was under suspicion. Panzeri later struck a plea deal, offering to dish on whom he claims to have bribed in exchange for a reduced sentence.
Maria Arena, who succeeded Panzeri as head of the Parliament’s human rights panel in 2019, also found herself under heavy scrutiny: Her friendship with her predecessor was so close that she’d been spotted as his plus-one at his assistant’s wedding. Alessandra Moretti, another S&D MEP, has also been linked to the probe, according to legal documents seen by POLITICO.
The appearance of Laura Ballarin, García’s Cabinet chief, raising a glass with Giorgi and vacationing on a Mediterranean sailboat with Kaili, offered a tabloid-friendly illustration of just how enmeshed the accused were with the group’s top brass.
“I was the first one to feel shocked, hurt and deeply betrayed when the news came out,” Ballarin told POLITICO. “Yet, evidently, my personal relations did never interfere with my professional role.”
Making matters worse, some three months later, the scandal has largely remained limited to the S&D. Two more of its members have been swallowed up since the initial round of arrests: Italy’s Andrea Cozzolino and Belgium’s Marc Tarabella — a well-liked figure known for handing out Christmas gifts to Parliament staff as part of a St. Nicholas act. Both were excluded, like Kaili, from the S&D group. They maintain their innocence.
Whiter than white
That’s putting pressure on García, who is seen in Brussels as an extension of the power of her close ally, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is one of S&D chief Iratxe García most important allies | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
However, she has not always been able to leverage that alliance in Brussels. A prime example is the backroom deal the political groups made to appoint the Parliament’s new secretary-general, Alessandro Chiocchetti, who hails from the center-right European People’s Party. García emerged mostly empty-handed from the negotiations, with the EPP maneuvering around her and The Left group securing an entirely new directorate general.
Kaili, from a tiny two-person Greek Socialist delegation, would also have never gotten the nod to become vice president in 2022 without García and the Spanish Socialists’ backing.
Yet when it comes to trying to clean house and reclaim the moral high ground, the Socialist chief has brought people together. “She deserves to be trusted to do this correctly,” said René Repasi, a German S&D lawmaker.
In the new year, the S&D successfully pushed through the affable, progressive Luxembourgish Marc Angel to replace Kaili, fending off efforts by other left-leaning and far-right groups to take one of the S&D’s seats in the Parliament’s rule-making bureau. In another move designed to steady the ship, the Socialists in February drafted Udo Bullmann, an experienced German MEP who previously led the S&D group, as a safe pair of hands to replace Arena on the human rights subcommittee.
And in a bid to go on the offensive, the Socialists published a 15-point ethics plan (one-upping the center-right Parliament president’s secret 14-point plan). It requires all S&D MEPs — and their assistants — to disclose their meetings online and pushes for whistleblower protections in the Parliament. Where legally possible, the group pledges to hold its own members to these standards — for example by banning MEPs from paid-for foreign trips — even if the rest of the body doesn’t go as far.
Those results were hard won, group officials recounted. With members from 26 EU countries, the group had to navigate cultural and geographic divisions on how to handle corruption, exposing north-south fault lines.
“To do an internal inquiry was not supported in the beginning by all, but we debated it,” said Bischoff, describing daily meetings that stretched all the way to Christmas Eve.
The idea of recruiting outside players to conduct an internal investigation was also controversial, she added. Yet in the end, the group announced in mid-January that former MEP Richard Corbett and Silvina Bacigalupo, a law professor and board member of Transparency International Spain, would lead a group-backed inquiry, which has now begun.
The moves appear to have staved off a challenge to García’s leadership, and so far, attacks from the Socialists’ main rival, the EPP, have been limited. But S&D MEPs say there’s still an air of unease, with some concerned the cleanup hasn’t gone deep enough — while others itch to defend the accused.
Some party activists quietly question if the response was too fast and furious.
Arena’s political future is in doubt, for example, even though she’s faced no criminal charges. Following mounting pressure about her ties to Panzeri, culminating with a POLITICO report on her undeclared travel to Qatar, Arena formally resigned from the human rights subcommittee. The group is not defending her, even as some activists mourn the downfall of someone they see as a sincere champion for human rights causes.
Vocal advocacy for Kaili has also fueled controversy: Italian S&D MEPs drew groans from colleagues when they hawked around a letter about the treatment of Kaili and her daughter, which only garnered 10 signatures.
“I do not believe it was necessary,” García said of the letter. “[If] I worry about the situation in jails, it has to be for everyone, not for a specific MEP.”
The letter also did nothing to warm relations between the S&D’s Spanish and Italian delegations, which have been frosty since before the scandal. The S&D spokesperson in a statement rejected the notion that there are tensions along geographical lines: “There’s no divide between North and South, nor East and West, and there’s no tension between the Italian and Spanish delegations.”
In another camp are MEPs who are looking somewhat suspiciously at their colleagues.
Repasi, the German S&D member, said he is weary of “colleagues that are seemingly lying into your face” — a specific reference to Tarabella, who vocally denied wrongdoing for weeks, only to have allegations surface that he took around €140,000 in bribes from Panzeri, the detained ex-lawmaker.
Repasi added: “It makes you more and more wonder if there is anyone else betting on the fact that he or she might not be caught.”
Jakob Hanke Vela, Karl Mathiesen and Aitor Hernández-Morales contributed reporting.
Petr Pavel, a former NATO general, will become the next president of the Czech Republic after resoundingly beating his opponent, billionaire and former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, in elections that culminated on Saturday.
Pavel secured 58 percent of the votes cast, compared to 42 percent for Babiš, according to the official tally.
Current Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala congratulated the former general and staunch ally of Ukraine in its ongoing war against Russia, calling Pavel a “civic candidate.”
“The values that he represented won — and that’s a very important message in these internally and economically complicated times,” Fiala told a press conference in Prague, according to local media reports.
The 61-year-old incoming president ran as a political independent and promised to reduce polarization in an Eastern European country that has been split along increasingly cultural and political dividing lines.
“Values such as truth, dignity, respect and humility won,” Pavel told supporters and media in Prague. “I am convinced that these values are shared by the vast majority of us; it is worth us trying make them part of our lives and also return them to the Prague Castle and our politics.”
While most of the political power resides with the Czech prime minister, Pavel has been a vocal supporter of closer ties with the European Union, including the adoption of the euro.
Before diving into domestic politics, he was chief of the Czech army’s general staff between 2012 and 2015, and then served as chairman of NATO’s military committee from 2015 to 2018.
ATHENS — Greece will hold parliamentary elections in the spring, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on Sunday, specifying “from April onwards” ahead of the conservative government’s term ending in July.
The next Greek elections will be held under a proportional representation system, which makes it almost impossible for any candidate to win outright; and a second round of voting is taken for granted — indicating an extended period of political uncertainty.
Mitsotakis said that he hasn’t made up his mind whether the elections would take place in April or May. “From April and onwards, the elections can be held at any time,” he told local newspaper Proto Thema in an interview published on Sunday.
Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for June 18, but the government in Ankara is considering holding them earlier. “Since this date corresponds with summer holiday season when people are travelling, we are evaluating bringing the date slightly forward,” ruling AK Party spokesperson Omer Celik said earlier this month. The possible earlier election dates circulating in the Turkish press are April 30, May 7 and May 14.
Ankara has stepped up its rhetoric against Greece in recent months, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan even warning in December that a missile could hit the Greek capital unless “you stay calm.” Increased pre-electoral tensions are possible in the region as the two elections more or less coincide.
On Saturday during a tour in the northern Evros region, near the land border with Turkey, the Greek prime minister said that “elections will be held in the spring, essentially at a point when we will have practically exhausted our four-year term.” He added that he would run as a candidate in Evros for symbolic reasons.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will likely visit Greece, Turkey and Israel late next month, ahead of the elections in the region, according to Greek media reports.
Lawyer Nataša Pirc Musar won a runoff vote on Sunday to become Slovenia’s first female president, according to preliminary results.
With nearly all of the votes counted, Pirc Musar led Slovenia’s conservative former right-wing Foreign Minister Anže Logar by 54 percent to 46 percent, according to media reports. A prominent lawyer, Pirc Musar had represented former U.S. first lady Melania Trump in copyright and other cases in her native Slovenia.
Her victory boosts the country’s liberal bloc following the center-left coalition’s victory in Slovenia’s parliamentary election in April.
“My first task will be to open a dialogue among all Slovenians,” Pirc Musar said as her election team celebrated, the Associated Press reported.
Logar conceded defeat, saying he hopes Pirc Musar “will carry out all the promises” that she made during the campaign.
Pirc Musar, 54, will be the first woman to serve as president since Slovenia became independent amid the breakup of Yugoslavia in 1991.
Delegates landing in Egypt’s Red Sea resort of Sharm El-Sheikh for U.N. climate talks this week are a global elite bent on tearing down national borders, stripping away individual freedoms and condemning working people to a life of poverty.
That dark view is held by a range of far-right or populist parties — among them Donald Trump’s Republicans, who are seeking to retake control in Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections. Some of these radicals are rampaging through elections in Europe while others, such as Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro last week, have been defeated only narrowly.
Republican and Trump acolyte Lauren Boebert derides the environmentalist agenda as “America last;” Britain’s Brexit-backing Home Secretary Suella Braverman says the country is in thrall to a “tofu-eating wokerati;” and in Spain, senior figures in the far-right Vox party dismiss the U.N.’s climate agenda as “cultural Marxism.”
Right-wingers of various strains around the world have co-opted climate change into their culture war. The fact this is happening in countries that produce a large share of global greenhouse gas emissions has alarmed some green advocates.
“Reactionary populism is now the biggest obstacle to tackling climate change,” wrote three climate leaders, including Brazil’s former Environment Minister Izabella Teixeira, in a recent commentary.
In the U.S., Republicans are eyeing a return to power in one or both houses of Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Many at the COP27 talks will be reliving the first week of the U.N. climate conference in Morocco six years ago when Trump’s election struck the climate movement like a hurricane.
A Republican surge would gnaw at the fragile confidence that has built around global climate efforts since President Joe Biden’s election, raising the specter of a second Trump term and perhaps the withdrawal — again — of the U.S. from the landmark 2015 Paris climate deal.
“I don’t want to think about that,” said Teixeira’s co-author Laurence Tubiana, a former French diplomat who led the design of the Paris Agreement and who now leads the European Climate Foundation.
Some on the American right are pushing a more conciliatory message than others. “Republicans have solutions to reduce world emissions while providing affordable, reliable, and clean energy to our allies across the globe,” said Utah Congressman John Curtis, who will lead a delegation from his party to COP27.
Tubiana and others in the environmental movement are trying to put on a brave face. They argue Republicans won’t want to tamper too much with Biden’s behemoth Inflation Reduction Act, which contains measures to promote clean energy.
“You might see railing against it, and I’m sure there’ll be lots of political talk and rhetoric, but I don’t expect that would be a focus for the Republicans,” said Nat Keohane, president of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, a green NGO based in Arlington, Virginia. Nevertheless, if Republicans take both houses, “we certainly won’t make any progress,” Keohane said.
Trump’s first term and the presidency of Brazil’s Bolsonaro — which ended in a narrow defeat in last month’s election — now look like the opening skirmishes in a struggle in which the planet’s stability is at stake.
In parts of Europe, the right present their policies as sympathetic to the risks of climate change while dismissing internationally sanctioned action as sinister elitism that threatens their voters’ prosperity.
“The Sweden Democrats are not climate deniers, whatever that means,” Swedish far-right leader Jimmie Åkesson told a crowd days before a September election that saw his party win big. But Sweden’s current climate plans, Åkesson said, were “100 percent symbolic” rather than meaningful. “All that leads to is that we get poorer, that our lives get worse.”
This is the gibbet on which the far right are hanging environmentalism: depicting them as the witting or unwitting cavalry of global elites.
“We consider it to be a globalist movement that intends to end all borders, intends to end our freedom, intends to end our freedom for our identities,” Javier Cortés, president of the Seville chapter of Spain’s far-right Vox party, said in an interview with POLITICO. “We are not in favor of CO2 emissions. On the contrary, we want to respect the environment. All we are saying is that the European Union has to clarify that it wants to sell us a climate religion in which we cannot emit CO2, while we make our industries disappear from Europe and we need to buy from China.”
To describe this as climate denial — a common but often inaccurate charge — would be to miss the point that this is now just another front in the culture wars.
Online disinformation about the last U.N. climate talks was largely focused on the hypocrisy and elitism of those attending, according to research from the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD). The main spreaders weren’t websites and figures traditionally associated with climate denial, but culture war celebrities such as psychologist Jordan Peterson, Rebel Media’s Ezra Levant and Dilbert cartoonist Scott Adams.
Populist attacks on globalism “rely on a well-funded transnational network,” said Tubiana. “It warrants serious scrutiny.”
But while economic interests may be powering parts of the movement, there is also a sense of political opportunism at work. Huge changes to the economy will be needed to lower emissions at the speed dictated by U.N.-brokered global climate goals. There will be winners and losers — and the losers may gravitate toward populists pledging to take up their cause.
“Far-right organizations are recognizing this as a potentially lucrative topic that they can win votes or support on,” said Balsa Lubarda, head of the ideology research unit at the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right.
Loving the losers
The far right’s focus on the losers has been “turbo charged” by the energy crisis, said Jennie King, head of civic action and education at ISD, which populists have wrongly argued is the fault of green policy. The European Parliament’s coalition of far-right parties has grown and capitalized on the energy crisis by joining with center-right parties to vote down environmental legislation.
Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson — newly elected with Åkesson’s support — aims to dilute the country’s ambitions for cutting some greenhouse gas emissions, a move center-right Liberal Environment Minister Romina Pourmokhtari justified in familiar terms: “That is a reaction to the reality people are facing.” And in Britain, Brexit leader Nigel Farage retooled his campaign to become an anti-net zero mouthpiece.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni says she wants to reclaim environmentalism for the right | Vincenzo Pinto/AFP via Getty Images
Strains of right-wing ecology may also mean that not all groups are actively hostile to the climate agenda, said Lubarda. Italy’s new Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is a huge fan of the books of J.R.R. Tolkien, which center on the Shire, an idealized bucolic homeland. Meloni says she wants to reclaim environmentalism for the right, but the protection of national economic interests still comes first.
“There is no more convinced ecologist than a conservative, but what distinguishes us from a certain ideological environmentalism is that we want to defend nature with man inside,” she said in her inaugural speech to parliament last month.
While Meloni has announced that she will attend COP27, she has also renamed the Ministry for the Ecological Transition the Ministry for Environment and Energy Security. The governing program of her Brothers of Italy party includes a section on climate change, but it strongly emphasizes the need to protect industry.
It’s this broad sense of demotion and delay that alarms those who are watching these ideas grow in stature among populists on the right. They say that while it may not sound like climate denial, the result is effectively the same.
“You can say that you are climate friends,” said Belgian Socialist MEP Marie Arena. “But in the act, you are not at all. You are business friends first.”
Jacopo Barragazzi, Charlie Duxbury and Zack Colman contributed to this report.
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ROME — Giorgia Meloni has been named Italy’s first female prime minister at the head of a right-wing government, after holding talks with the country’s president.
After a week of infighting which overshadowed the negotiations, Meloni’s warring coalition put forward a united front, backing Meloni to lead the country during formal talks with President Sergio Mattarella, on Friday.
Later on Friday Mattarella asked Meloni to form a government.
Meloni, after arriving for talks in a Fiat 500, accepted unconditionally, a spokesman for the president’s office said. The right-wing coalition emerged triumphant from the election, with 44 percent of the vote, led by Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, which took 26 percent.
But even before a government could be cobbled together, rivalry emerged inside the coalition, with allies arguing over Meloni’s unwillingness to accommodate Silvio Berlusconi’s preferred nominations in her cabinet.
At the opening of the new parliament, Berlusconi, leader of the Forza Italia party, said in a note left in public view that he found Meloni “overbearing … domineering … arrogant … offensive.”
No sooner were peacetalks concluded than Berlusconi was recorded asserting that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was to blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and affirming his friendship with Vladimir Putin.
Meloni replied saying that anyone who did not agree with her pro-Europe, pro-NATO orientation “cannot be part of the government, even if that means not forming the government.”
Despite the clashes, the right-wingers made up in order to take over as Italy’s new government. Meloni met with the President on Friday alongside her fellow leaders in the right wing bloc, Matteo Salvini, leader of the League, and Berlusconi.
Meloni is set to name her team on Friday with the new cabinet sworn in on Saturday and a vote of confidence in parliament on Tuesday.
Her team must immediately roll up their sleeves, working to deadlines including the Budget, which has to be sent to Europe for approval by the end of the month, and the Recovery Plan, the EU’s post pandemic economic aid program. Some 55 targets and milestones have to be met by the year’s end to unlock almost 20 billion euros in funding for Italy under the program.
The new government’s priority will be to tackle a cost of living crisis exacerbated by sky-high energy prices and rising interest rates, which weigh on Italy’s heavy public debt.
Caretaker prime minister Mario Draghi, who was ousted in July, has attempted to smooth the transition, pushing for a cap on energy prices in Europe and setting out the narrow margins for manoeuvre in the budget.
Draghi, in his last news conference as the head of the Italian government, said: “Italy must be at the centre of the European project with the credibility, authoritativeness and determination fitting of a great country like ours.”
But Meloni’s new team is likely to struggle to reconcile the expensive electoral promises they made on pensions and tax cuts with the economic reality. A recession is forecast for next year.
European leaders indicated they were ready to work with Meloni’s government.
At the end of the European Council in Brussels, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said: “We are all together as European nations within the EU and it is essential that we democracies cooperate a great deal.”
“Every time that there is a change of government because of elections, as [happens] in a democracy, it cannot change the good relations that we have with the other member states or, for example, that we have between Germany and Italy … We will continue to work with very good cooperation between the countries and within the sphere of the European Union.”
French President Emmanuel Macron said: “I am ready to work with Meloni.” Macron is visiting Rome on Sunday and Monday to meet President Mattarella and Pope Francis, and said he could meet Meloni then, too. “We will see on Monday according to institutional developments, in compliance with protocol,” he said.
