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Tag: economy and economic indicators

  • In desperate bid for cash, the Treasury is auctioning one-day bills | CNN Business

    In desperate bid for cash, the Treasury is auctioning one-day bills | CNN Business

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    CNN
     — 

    Desperate times are calling for desperate measures at the Treasury Department.

    For the first time since 2007, the department is set to auction $15 billion worth of one-day cash management bills on Friday that will be issued on June 5.

    This comes as the Treasury’s cash balances hover around $37 billion, the lowest level since 2017. Since the debt ceiling was initially breached in January, the Treasury hasn’t been able to borrow more money to pay its bills. If lawmakers don’t raise the debt ceiling by June 5, the Treasury is poised to run out of funds to meet its full obligations, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned.

    Congress appears to be on track to avoid that scenario. The House of Representatives passed the debt deal House Speaker Kevin McCarthy cut with President Joe Biden on Wednesday. Now its fate rests in the hands of the Senate and Biden, who vowed to quickly sign it into law.

    Cash management bills mature in a relatively short time frame, ranging from a few days to a year, according to the Treasury. They’re used to help manage the Treasury’s short-term financing needs.

    Unlike Treasury bill auctions that occur on a weekly and monthly basis, cash management bill auctions are irregular, though not uncommon. For instance, last year the Treasury held more than 30 cash management bill auctions.

    It is, however, quite unusual for the department to auction debt that matures in just one day. Over the past 25 years, the Treasury held six one-day cash management bill auctions.

    Yields on cash management bills, which are determined by the auction process, tend to be higher than regular fixed maturity bills. On Thursday, the Treasury auctioned $25 billion of three-day cash management bills yielding 6.15%. That exceeds the yields almost all other Treasury bills are trading at.

    Friday’s auction is open to the public with a minimum $100 bid and can only be purchased in $100 increments.

    “There likely won’t be an issue for the Treasury to find bidders on the paper as maturities this short can fit well in money-market funds or other institutional buyers’ books that are looking to invest cash over the weekend,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management.

    It’s likely that yields on the one-day bills will end up mirroring yields of other bills that mature on June 6, he added, “but any negative headlines overnight indicating bottlenecks with the legislature getting through the Senate will impact the auction price.”

    Underscoring the uncertainty around the debt ceiling bill, the Treasury said plans to issue $65 billion of 13-week bills and $58 billion of 26-week bills on June 8 were “tentative.”

    The announcements “are conditional on enactment of the debt limit suspension because Treasury forecasts insufficient headroom under the current debt limit to issue securities in these amounts on June 8,” the Treasury said in a statement on Thursday.

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  • Employers are preparing for a recession, but that doesn’t always mean layoffs | CNN Business

    Employers are preparing for a recession, but that doesn’t always mean layoffs | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    Areas of the US economy have started to crack under the weight of persistently high inflation and a string of 10 consecutive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

    But despite all that, the labor market has kept humming right along. And that’s largely expected to be the case, again, in Friday’s monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    Economists are forecasting a net gain of 190,000 jobs for May, according to Refinitiv. While that would mark a significant retreat from April’s surprisingly strong 253,000 jobs added, it would land slightly above the average monthly gains seen during the strong labor market in the years leading up to the pandemic.

    Economists are also expecting the unemployment rate to tick back up to 3.5%. The US jobless rate has hovered at decade-lows for more than a year, with the current 3.4% rate matching a 53-year low hit in January.

    Private sector employment increased by 278,000 jobs in May, according to ADP’s monthly National Employment Report, frequently seen as a proxy for the government’s official number. That’s significantly higher than estimates of 170,000 jobs added but slightly below the previous month’s revised total of 291,000.

    Additional labor market data released Thursday showed that initial weekly jobless claims for the week ended May 27 totaled 232,000, almost no change from the previous week’s revised total of 230,000 applications.

    “In the last few months, the job market has continued to defy gravity, adding a steady clip of jobs and holding unemployment at historically low levels despite a backdrop of rising interest rates, banking turmoil, tech layoffs and debt ceiling negotiations,” Daniel Zhao, lead economist at employment review and search site Glassdoor, wrote in a note this week. “After a healthy April jobs report, May is likely to repeat with an equally strong performance.”

    Consumer spending and the labor market — two ares of strength in the economy — have, in a way, continued to feed on themselves.

    Last week, a Commerce Department report showed that not only did the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge heat up in April but so did consumer spending. Economists largely attributed consumers’ resilience to the healthy labor market as well as ample dry powder stockpiled from home refinances and from the temporary pause in student loan payments.

    In turn, that’s kept businesses busy.

    “With demand for goods and services holding up, employers who have been cautious and have been very nervous about over-hiring are — when push comes to shove — having to keep hiring just to keep pace with business activity,” Julia Pollak, chief economist for online employment marketplace ZipRecruiter, told CNN. “They’re very worried about a recession later this year, but they need to keep hiring today to provide the pizzas that people are demanding and to prevent flights being canceled.”

    She added: “Companies have also learned the hard way how costly staffing shortages can be.”

    But labor shortages are becoming far less acute: This past Memorial Day weekend, 1% of flights were canceled, Pollak said, noting that cancellations were fivefold higher a year before.

    “And while that’s a good news story — the end of shortages and disruptions during the pandemic is good for most consumers and good for businesses — it does come at some cost, which is a measurable decline in worker and job seeker leverage,” she said.

    Labor turnover data released Wednesday showed that the US employment market remained tight in April.

    Job openings bounced up to 10.1 million positions, bucking economists’ predictions for a fourth-consecutive monthly decline, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report. The jump brought the ratio of vacancies to unemployed to almost 1.8, which is well above a range of 1.0 to 1.2 that is considered consistent with a balanced labor market, according to Michael Feroli, JPMorgan chief US economist.

    Although the April JOLTS data showed that fewer people were voluntarily quitting their jobs, the amount of layoffs and discharges dropped during the month, suggesting that employers are continuing to hoard workers, noted economist Matthew Martin of Oxford Economics.

    While monthly job gains haven’t tailed off as much as anticipated to this point, there is a notable slowdown that’s occurred from the blockbuster job gains of the past three years.

    But whether the softening is a sign of a return to pre-pandemic form or perhaps of a downswing into a downturn, remains to be seen.

    Some of the traditional recession indicators have been flashing red. Layoff announcements have quadrupled so far this year to 417,500, which — excluding 2020 — is the highest January to May total since 2009, according to a report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas released Thursday. Falling consumer confidence, monthly declines in the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, and drops in temporary help employment are also signaling that a downturn is just ahead. However, that long-predicted recession isn’t here just yet.

    “We were in such an unusual place during the pandemic with some of those indicators at completely extraordinary heights that they have experienced extraordinary declines,” Pollak said. “But those declines were just a return to normal, not a contraction, and it’s not a recession.”

    The government’s May jobs report is scheduled for Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

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  • 5 things to know for May 31: DeSantis, Artificial intelligence, Debt deal, UK, Ukraine | CNN

    5 things to know for May 31: DeSantis, Artificial intelligence, Debt deal, UK, Ukraine | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    One-time Silicon Valley darling Elizabeth Holmes reported to prison Tuesday to begin serving out her 11-year sentence after being convicted on multiple charges of defrauding investors. Her life in prison will be quite a change, with mandatory jobs, very early mornings and no black turtlenecks.

    Here’s what else you need to know to Get Up to Speed and On with Your Day.

    (You can get “CNN’s 5 Things” delivered to your inbox daily. Sign up here.)

    Ron DeSantis officially kicked off his 2024 presidential campaign Tuesday in Iowa. While speaking to reporters after the event at an evangelical church outside Des Moines, the Florida governor leveled a series of shots at his rival, former President Donald Trump, painting him as selfish, unprincipled and petty. As the opening contest in the GOP nominating fight, Iowa holds a unique role in sizing up the presidential field. That’s especially important this election season since it’s the first time in over a century a former president is seeking to return to the White House. Meanwhile, Florida officials just changed state campaign finance guidelines in a very specific way to allow DeSantis’ allies to initiate a specific kind of transfer to move tens of millions of dollars to a super PAC supporting his campaign. The planned move has already drawn a watchdog complaint with the Federal Election Commission.

    Dozens of industry leaders and academics in the field of artificial intelligence have called for greater global attention to the possible threat of “extinction from AI.” A statement, signed by leading industry officials like OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Geoffrey Hinton — the so-called “godfather” of artificial intelligence — highlights wide-ranging concerns about the ultimate danger of unchecked AI. Experts say humanity is still a ways off from the prospect of science-fiction-like AI overlords, but the flood of hype and investment into the AI industry has led to calls for regulation now before any major mishaps occur. The growing AI arms race has already generated more immediate concerns. Lawmakers, advocacy groups and tech insiders have raised alarms about the potential for AI-powered language models like ChatGPT to spread misinformation and displace jobs.

    AI developers are warning ‘risk of extinction’ to humans

    The House of Representatives is on track to vote today on a bill to suspend the nation’s debt limit through January 1, 2025. The bill already cleared a key hurdle Tuesday evening when the powerful House Rules Committee voted 7-6 to advance it to the floor. That’s a win for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who was tasked with convincing members of the committee to vote in favor even though some fellow Republicans don’t approve of the bill and have vowed to sink it in the chamber. Still, it appears a wide range of House members on both sides of the aisle are poised to support the deal. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill would reduce budget deficits by $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years, and reduce discretionary spending by a projected $1.3 trillion from 2024 to 2033.

    exp debt limit bill rana foroohar intv 053102ASEG1 cnni us_00005607.png

    U.S. House to vote on debt limit bill amid criticism

    The UK’s inflation problems are getting so out of hand, officials are considering food price caps to curb the crisis. New data released this week shows the cost of store items, a metric known as shop price inflation, rose 9% through the year to May. That’s the highest it’s ever been since such stats were first recorded in 2005. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is considering asking retailers to cap the price of essential food items, something the UK government tried in the 1970s to tepid effect. Economists say capping prices leads to lower supply and higher demand, resulting in shortages. The enduring shadow of Brexit still looms large over Britain’s economy, and some experts say the government should be focused on shedding burdensome regulations that resulted from the move instead of trying to control prices. 

    Russia’s war on Ukraine is increasingly spilling into Russian territory. The governor of Russia’s Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, said four people were recently injured in a “massive strike” there. This is the latest in a series of strikes against Russian targets by Ukrainian forces. Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the spate of attacks, saying Ukraine “chose the path of intimidation,” and is provoking Russia to “mirror actions.” Amid all the violence, scientists have another concern: International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi has outlined a plan to protect Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and asked that Russia and Ukraine observe them to ensure the plant’s safety and security. 

    exp russia ukraine drone strikes sam kiley FST 053112ASEG2 cnni world_00002524.png

    Russia blames Ukraine after drone strikes in Moscow

    Alleged Russian ‘spy’ whale now in Swedish waters

    Patiently waiting for a mystery novel series about spy whales. 

    Michael Jordan was a ‘horrible player’ and ‘horrible to play with,’ says former Chicago Bulls teammate Scottie Pippen

    Dang, Scottie. Tell us how you really feel!

    Venice authorities discover why canal turned fluorescent green

    Given all the fluorescent things it could have been, this is quite a relief.

    This is the world’s first 3D-printed, cultivated fish fillet

    Mmm, science is delicious.

    Air New Zealand to weigh passengers before they board the airplane

    What an innovative way to make air travel even more stressful

    1.4 million

    That’s about how many people have now been displaced in Sudan since a civil war erupted there in April, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says. Hundreds have been killed in the violence, and reports of sexual assault are increasingly common. 

    “I just tried to follow the police commands but I guess that didn’t work.”

    — Aderrien Murry, the 11-year-old boy who was shot in the chest less than two weeks ago by a Mississippi police officer after he called 911 for help. The boy said he prayed and sang in the moments after he was shot as his mother tried to stop the bleeding. Aderrien’s family wants the officer fired, and is seeking restitution from the state. 

    Check your local forecast here>>>

    A perfect day

    Bless people who put little collar cameras on their outdoor cats. These videos bring a type of peace I didn’t know existed. (Click here to view)

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  • US oil prices sink below $70 on debt ceiling jitters and Russia-Saudi tensions | CNN Business

    US oil prices sink below $70 on debt ceiling jitters and Russia-Saudi tensions | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    US oil prices dropped below $70 a barrel Tuesday on concerns about whether the debt ceiling deal will make it through Congress and on reports of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Russia ahead of a key OPEC+ meeting.

    Crude slumped 4.4% to close at $69.46 a barrel, the lowest settlement price in nearly four weeks.

    The selloff marks one of the worst days of the year for the oil market and could help keep a lid on pump prices. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is down by about $1 from a year ago.

    Oil market veterans blamed Tuesday’s decline in part on worries about whether conservatives in the House of Representatives will try to block the bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling forged over the weekend by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

    “It’s not a layup that the debt deal is going to get done. That’s spooking the market, no doubt about that,” said Robert Yawger, vice president of energy futures at Mizuho Securities.

    Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, also pointed to “growing skepticism” about the debt ceiling agreement and the risk that a failure to raise the borrowing limit sets off a “deep recession” that curbs demand for oil.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned the government will not have enough funds to meet all of the nation’s obligations if Congress does not address the debt ceiling by June 5.

    Brent crude, the world benchmark, dropped by more than 4%, slipping below $74 a barrel.

    Meanwhile, there are new questions about the relationship between OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and Russia ahead of this weekend’s meeting of oil producers in Vienna.

    Saudi Arabia has expressed anger to Russia for failing to follow through on Moscow’s promise to cut production in response to Western sanctions, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources. The apparent tensions raises uncertainty about the status of OPEC+, the alliance between OPEC members like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait and non-OPEC nations led by Russia.

    “There is starting to be chatter about the Russian and Saudis not being the best of friends,” said Yawger.

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  • Corporate America celebrates debt ceiling deal and urges Congress to quickly pass legislation | CNN Business

    Corporate America celebrates debt ceiling deal and urges Congress to quickly pass legislation | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Leading business groups are praising President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy for forging a bipartisan agreement to raise the debt ceiling, and they are calling for Congress to pass the legislation before the government suffers a devastating default.

    “With the US at risk of defaulting in less than 10 days, there is no time to spare. We urge members of Congress to give the legislation their strong support,” Josh Bolten, the CEO of the Business Roundtable and former chief of staff to President George W. Bush, said in a statement on Sunday.

    Bolten applauded the agreement for not only raising the debt ceiling through January 1, 2025, but for making a “down payment” on permitting reform and taking steps towards putting America on a “more sustainable fiscal trajectory.”

    Suzanne Clark, president and CEO of the US Chamber of Commerce, said in a separate statement that by reaching a compromise, Biden and congressional leaders have “shown they can come together on a bipartisan basis and act in the best interests of our country.”

    “Members of Congress must finish the job and send the bill to the President’s desk to be signed into law without delay. The gravity of this moment cannot be overstated,” said Clark, who added the Chamber will consider this a “key vote” for lawmakers.

    The National Association of Manufacturers, the largest manufacturing trade group in the nation, congratulated Biden, McCarthy and their lawmakers for reaching an agreement.

    “Defaulting on our debt would create economic chaos, harming manufacturing workers and their families and jeopardizing our leadership in the world,” NAM CEO Jay Timmons, who previously worked as a senior aid to Republican officials, said in a statement. “Congress should act quickly to pass this agreement and to demonstrate to Americans and to the world the continued strength of our institutions and our democracy.”

    Big bank CEOs are also pressing lawmakers to green light the debt limit deal.

    The Financial Services Forum, a trade group whose members include Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, issued a statement Tuesday praising the efforts of Biden and McCarthy and urging Congress to adopt the agreement.

    “Responsible and timely action will preserve the full faith and credit of the United States and our nation’s important position of global economic leadership,” Financial Services Forum CEO Kevin Fromer said in the statement.

    Biden and McCarthy reached an agreement Saturday, but the deal isn’t done yet. Party leaders in Washington are working furiously Monday to convince holdouts to back the compromise legislation that would avert default. Still, prospects for passage of the bill are rising as many centrist Democrats said they would back the bill, and Republicans said they believed that they would be able to carry the support of the majority of their House conference.

    The House vote is expected to take place Wednesday.

    – CNN’s Kevin Liptak contributed to this report.

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  • Britain is getting so desperate to tame inflation it’s talking about food price caps | CNN Business

    Britain is getting so desperate to tame inflation it’s talking about food price caps | CNN Business

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    Brits woke up to yet more grim news on inflation Tuesday, with new data showing prices in UK stores are rising at a record pace. It’s the latest sign of a seemingly intractable cost-of-living crisis that has Prime Minster Rishi Sunak considering drastic measures, including price controls, to keep inflation in check.

    The cost of store items, known as shop price inflation, rose 9% through the year to May, a fresh high for an index that dates back to 2005, according to the British Retail Consortium. Food inflation dipped slightly to 15.4% in May, but that’s still the second-highest rate on record.

    Lower energy and commodity costs helped reduce prices of some staples, including butter, milk, fruit and fish. But chocolate and coffee prices are rising as global commodity prices soar, British Retail Consortium CEO Helen Dickinson said.

    The slight drop in food prices will give cold comfort to consumers, and piles the pressure on Sunak, who has promised to halve inflation this year as one of his five pledges to voters.

    The British public “are still wincing when their total comes up at the checkout… a weekly shop that cost £100 last year is now clocking in at £115,” Laura Suter, head of personal finance at stockbroker AJ Bell wrote in a note.

    Poor households are being hit the hardest because they spend more of their disposable income on food. More people are using food banks in the United Kingdom than ever before, eclipsing even the peak of the pandemic.

    The Trussell Trust, the UK’s biggest food bank network, handed out close to 3 million emergency food parcels over the 12 months to March 2023 — a 37% increase on the previous year.

    Even the Bank of England, tasked with keeping inflation at 2%, has been caught off guard by stubbornly high food prices, which seem to have barely responded to 12 successive interest rate hikes.

    Food prices have contributed to keeping inflation “higher than we expected it to be,” Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told a Treasury committee hearing last week. “We have a lot to learn about operating monetary policy in a world of big shocks,” he admitted.

    The United Kingdom’s inflation problem is now so dire that Sunak is considering asking retailers to cap the price of essential food items, in a throwback to the 1970s. Back then, governments in the United States and United Kingdom imposed wage and price controls to tame inflation, although the policies weren’t very effective at bringing inflation down and were later dropped.

    Economists say that capping prices encourages companies to produce less of a product, while making it more attractive to consumers. Supply goes down, and demand goes up, with shortages being the inevitable result.

    Price controls distort markets and should only be used “in extreme circumstances,” Neal Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note Tuesday. “The current food price shock does not warrant such an intervention,” he added.

    The Sunday Telegraph was first to report the government’s proposal, which was quickly rejected by retailers.

    Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability at the British Retail Consortium said controls would not make a “jot of difference” to high food prices, which are the result of soaring energy, transport and labor costs.

    “As commodity prices drop, many of the costs keeping inflation high are now arising from the muddle of new regulation coming from government,” Opie added in a statement. These include tighter rules on recycling and full border controls on food imports from the European Union, due to be implemented by the end of this year.

    According to a government spokesperson, any price caps would not be mandatory. “Any scheme to help bring down food prices for consumers would be voluntary and at retailers’ discretion,” the spokesperson said in a statement shared with CNN.

    Sunak and Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt “have been meeting with the food sector to see what more can be done,” the spokesperson added.

    For Sunak, the pressure is on — particularly ahead of a general election widely expected to be held next year. Inflation was hovering above 10% when he made the promise to halve it in January. It dropped back to 8.7% in April, still well above his target. The Bank of England expects it to fall to “around 5%” by the end of this year, leaving little margin for error.

    According to Opie of the British Retail Consortium, the government should focus on “cutting red tape” rather than “recreating 1970s-style price controls.”

    At the top of the list of burdensome regulations are those introduced as a result of the country’s exit from the European Union, which is its main source of food imports.

    Brexit is responsible for about a third of UK food price inflation since 2019, according to researchers at the London School of Economics.

    New regulatory checks and other border controls added nearly £7 billion ($8.7 billion) to Britain’s domestic grocery bill between December 2019 and March 2023, or £250 ($310) per household, economists at the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance wrote in a recent paper.

    Food prices rose by almost 25 percentage points over this period. “Our analysis suggests that in the absence of Brexit this figure would be 8 percentage points (30%) lower,” the researchers wrote.

    Imports of meat and cheese from the European Union were now subject to high “non-tariff barriers.”

    — Mark Thompson contributed reporting.

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  • Republican tries to scuttle debt limit bill in House Rules Committee as pressure grows on key swing vote | CNN Politics

    Republican tries to scuttle debt limit bill in House Rules Committee as pressure grows on key swing vote | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Rep. Chip Roy accused House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday of cutting a deal that could complicate negotiators’ efforts to pass a bill to raise the US debt ceiling this week.

    But McCarthy’s allies quickly refuted the Texas Republican, underscoring the tension ahead of a key meeting of the House Rules Committee on Tuesday – and putting new pressure on a conservative holdout, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who has yet to take a position on the plan.

    Roy contended that McCarthy cut a hand-shake deal in January that all nine Republicans on the powerful panel must agree to move any legislation forward, otherwise bills could not be considered by the full House for majority approval. That would essentially doom the debt ceiling bill since Roy – who sits on the panel – and another conservative committee member are trying to stop the bill from advancing.

    “A reminder that during Speaker negotiations to build the coalition, that it was explicit both that nothing would pass Rules Committee without AT LEAST 7 GOP votes – AND that the Committee would not allow reporting out rules without unanimous Republican votes,” Roy tweeted.

    Senior GOP sources acknowledged that there was an agreement for seven Republican committee members to agree to move forward in order to advance a bill to the floor, but they flatly dispute that there was a deal for all nine to sign off for legislation to advance.

    “I have not heard that before. If those conversations took place, the rest of the conference was unaware of them,” said Rep. Dusty Johnson of South Dakota. “And frankly, I doubt them.”

    The dispute is significant because Roy sits on the committee – which is divided between nine Republicans and four Democrats – as does GOP Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina. Both men have emerged as leading foes of the bipartisan debt limit bill to avoid a June 5 default, arguing it does little to rein in government spending.

    A third conservative who sits on the panel – Massie – has been mum about how he plans to handle the rule vote in committee. McCarthy agreed to name all three men to the panel as part of the promises he made during his hard-fought speaker’s victory – all to give more power to conservatives on committees, including on Rules, which is typically stacked with the speaker’s closest allies.

    If Massie were to join Roy and Norman and vote against the rule at Tuesday’s meeting, he could effectively stall the measure in committee.

    But in January, Massie told CNN he was reluctant to vote against rules to stop bills in their tracks.

    “I would be reluctant to try to use the rules committee to achieve a legislative outcome, particularly if it doesn’t represent a large majority of our caucus,” Massie said at the time. “So I don’t ever intend to use my position on there to like, hold somebody hostage – or hold legislation hostage.”

    Democrats on the committee may also vote for the rule, sources told CNN, and that would ensure it has the votes to advance to the floor. But if Massie were to oppose the rule, only six Republicans would be in favor of it, complicating McCarthy’s efforts to bring the plan to the floor since he previously agreed to only take up bills with the backing of seven committee Republicans.

    Massie’s office declined to comment on how he may vote on Tuesday, and neither Roy nor the speaker’s office responded to requests for comments on the Texan’s assertion.

    But Republicans close to McCarthy refuted the notion that bills could only advance with unanimous GOP support in the committee.

    “I’m a rules guy,” Johnson said. “And when I checked, there wasn’t a rule that something has to come out of Rules Committee unanimously. Now Chip is a rules guy too. So I think he’s going to understand that, that this is a majoritarian institution, and that ultimately, we’re going to serve Americans the best way that the majority of us know how – that’s going to be to pass this bill.”

    Other McCarthy allies agreed.

    “I don’t know what Speaker McCarthy agreed to, but that has not been something that any of us were familiar with,” Rep. Stephanie Bice of Oklahoma said. “I think that comment was that it had to be unanimous to come out of the Rules Committee to go to the floor is the tweet that I read. And I think that is inaccurate, at best, but I don’t know because I wasn’t in the room. I don’t know how you would have something like that functionally work.”

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  • Biden and McCarthy lean on holdouts in both parties to pass debt ceiling deal | CNN Politics

    Biden and McCarthy lean on holdouts in both parties to pass debt ceiling deal | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Party leaders in Washington are waging an urgent campaign Monday to convince Democrats and Republicans to get behind compromise legislation that would avert a first-ever national default, with each side proclaiming victory following marathon talks.

    Prospects for passage of the bill, based on the agreement struck between President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, grew Sunday as many centrist Democrats fell in line and Republicans maintained confidence that they would be able to carry the support of the majority of their House conference in a pivotal vote expected Wednesday.

    In both parties’ sights are those in the political middle, who leaders are wagering will swallow some provisions they disagree with in order to suspend the federal borrowing limit through January 1, 2025 – after the next presidential election – and avoid default. The bill caps non-defense spending, temporarily expands work requirements for some food stamp recipients and claws back some Covid-19 relief funds.

    The release of the bill text Sunday evening amounted to a consequential moment for both Biden and McCarthy, whose political futures could hinge on their ability to pass the legislation while also selling it as a victory for their respective parties.

    Speaking from the White House on Sunday, Biden hailed the agreement as critical to preventing economic disaster.

    “It’s a really important step forward,” he said from the Roosevelt Room. “It takes the threat of catastrophic default off the table, protects our hard-earned economic recovery, and the agreement also represents a compromise – which means no one got everything they want, but that’s the responsibility of governing.”

    The president shrugged off concerns from some Democrats who worry he gave away too much in his negotiations with Republicans.

    “They’ll find I didn’t,” he said.

    In a private call Sunday with House Democrats, Biden’s briefers defended their dealmaking with McCarthy, going into detail about what they had prevented from being added to the bill, according to multiple sources. They argued they stopped Republicans from pushing even stiffer work requirements and beat back efforts to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act and gut and gut Biden’s signature 2021 infrastructure law.

    After those briefings, many Democrats signaled that they were willing to support the plan simply because there’s no other viable option to avoid default, lawmakers told CNN.

    “It’s not a victory, but it’s a lot better (than) what might have happened if there were default,” one Senate Democrat told CNN after an evening briefing.

    Members of two major centrist groups – the New Democrat Coalition and Problem Solvers Caucus – are expected to largely support the plan, according to multiple sources. That represents roughly 100 Democrats, which could be enough to offset the losses from members of the hard-right who are furious over McCarthy’s dealmaking.

    Several members of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus have already harshly criticized the plan, vowing to try blocking it from passage.

    McCarthy has insisted to House Republicans that Democrats “got nothing” in the negotiations, and he worked to amplify government spending caps and new work requirements for food stamps as critical wins long sought by the GOP.

    But like Biden, McCarthy acknowledged the agreement required concessions from both sides.

    “It doesn’t get everything everybody wanted,” McCarthy told reporters in the Capitol on Sunday. “But, in divided government, that’s where we end up. I think it’s a very positive bill.”

    For McCarthy, the first big test will come Tuesday in the House Rules Committee, a panel that must adopt a rule to allow the bill to be approved by a majority of the House. To win the speakership, McCarthy agreed to name three conservative hardliners – Reps. Ralph Norman of South Carolina, Chip Roy of Texas and Thomas Massie of Kentucky – to the committee, a major concession since usually the powerful panel is stacked with close allies of the leadership.

    Norman and Roy have emerged as sharp critics of the debt limit deal so far, while Massie was quiet while waiting for bill text to be released. If all three voted against the rule in committee, that would kill the bill – unless any Democrats vote to advance the rule.

    McCarthy’s allies sought to play down the conservative revolt.

    “When you’re saying that conservatives have concerns, it is really the most colorful conservatives,” Rep. Dusty Johnson said on “State of the Union.”

    Passing the bill through the House will not be the final step. The package must also clear the Senate, where any single senator could stall progress for several days. On Sunday, a handful of powerful Senate Republicans had raised concerns about the deal’s defense spending during a Senate GOP conference call, a source on the call said.

    But with the support of Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell and expected backing of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, several Senate sources say there is a high likelihood there’ll be 60 votes to break a filibuster attempt. The timing of the final votes in the Senate could slip into Friday or the weekend.

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  • White House and House Republicans strike agreement in principle to raise debt ceiling, sources say | CNN Politics

    White House and House Republicans strike agreement in principle to raise debt ceiling, sources say | CNN Politics

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    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    The White House and House Republicans have an agreement in principle on a deal to raise the debt ceiling and cap spending, multiple sources familiar with the negotiations told CNN.

    The text of the deal will be reviewed overnight by both sides to ensure it lines up with the tentative agreement.

    This is a breaking story and will be updated.

    White House and House GOP negotiators are racing to finalize a deal to raise the nation’s debt limit with time running perilously short and the risk of a first-ever US default growing.

    There have been some signs that talks have progressed in recent days, and negotiators were hoping to announce an agreement as soon as Saturday, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden spoke by phone Saturday evening, and House GOP leaders were planning to brief all members on the state of negotiations later in the evening, according to multiple sources familiar with the situation.

    A source with knowledge of the negotiations told CNN on Saturday that a provision to impose new work requirements for certain social safety net programs remains a final sticking point.

    Republicans have been pushing this issue hard, saying beneficiaries of programs such as food stamps with no dependents should be forced to follow new rules. Democrats, however, have cast that idea as an attack on poor people.

    It’s unclear how the negotiators could come to an agreement, but the source told CNN the issue needs to be resolved before a deal can be reached.

    McCarthy arrived at the US Capitol on Saturday morning after his top Republican negotiators, Reps. Garret Graves of Louisiana and Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, had worked late into the night drafting the final details of a deal from the speaker’s office.

    “I feel closer to an agreement now than I did a long time before, because I see progress. But listen, this is not easy in any shape or form. But that doesn’t back us away from it,” McCarthy told reporters.

    The California Republican said he’d like to hold a vote on a debt limit bill as soon as Tuesday, which would mean negotiators would need to announce a deal and send legislative text to lawmakers by Saturday.

    Asked by CNN if he was confident he could get the full House GOP Caucus behind him following an agreement, McCarthy said: “Do you ever think you’re going to get every single member to vote for it? I didn’t get every single member to vote for the first one. I didn’t get every single member to vote for me for speaker.”

    But McCarthy maintained he’d be able to get the majority of House Republicans on board, telling CNN, “I don’t think I’ll have any problem with that.”

    White House officials were generally optimistic about the state of negotiations Saturday afternoon. One official told CNN that negotiations were ongoing and echoed Biden’s remark on Friday that they were close to a deal.

    While nothing is final, negotiators have made some progress on the work requirements provision for certain social safety net programs, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN earlier Saturday.

    Spending cuts on domestic programs were another issue that negotiators had worked to sort out late Friday night, but It’s unclear if the dispute has been fully resolved.

    Energy permitting reform, which aims to cut down the time it takes for new projects to get approved, remains a high priority for Graves. The issue pits environmentalists against the oil and gas industry and has divided congressional Democrats.

    McHenry said earlier Saturday that he and Graves had returned to McCarthy’s office, where they are meeting virtually with the White House. Friday’s negotiations broke off in the early morning hours Saturday.

    McHenry said negotiators have a “very narrow set of issues that has to be dealt with” before they can reach a deal, which he said was still “hours or days away.”

    People involved in the process said earlier they felt confident the issues could be resolved in a timely manner.

    It’s unclear when the final bill text will be released, and the process of turning a framework into an actual bill can be laborious. New issues could easily crop up at each step along the way, and each step has the potential to be time-consuming, running out the clock ahead of the debt limit deadline early next month.

    The two sides, however, have been trying to firm up the legislative text as they’ve gone along in a bid to speed up that process.

    “House Republicans have a bill that we passed out of the House to raise the debt ceiling. So we have legislative text that is wide and complete. And so that is a helpful baseline when you’re getting into a window like this,” McHenry said Saturday.

    Selling the deal to members will be no small task, with stiff opposition expected from both the left and right. That means it’s going to require an intense whipping operation – and support from both sides of the aisle – to get the bill over the finish line.

    The pressure on negotiators is intense as the US steadily inches closer to the possibility of a default and the threat of economic catastrophe.

    In a major development Friday that will give lawmakers more time to reach and pass a deal, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that Congress must address the debt ceiling by June 5 or the government will not have enough funds to pay all of the nation’s obligations in full and on time. Previously, Yellen had estimated that the earliest possible date a default could occur was June 1.

    McHenry said the Yellen’s new date “clarifies that our timeline is very tight.”

    “House Republicans asked for clarification. Chip Roy and Matt Gaetz and Byron Donalds and Dan Bishop, among others, asked for clarification on Secretary Yellen’s math. She updated her math. Obviously, it was a good request. And I think it clarifies our window for us to actually achieve the deal,” he said Saturday.

    Debt limit predictions, however, aren’t clear-cut. Rather than a set-in-stone deadline, it is more of a best-guess estimate, which makes it harder to know exactly how much time Congress has to act to avert potential financial catastrophe.

    This story has been updated with additional information.

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  • Major differences remain over spending cuts and other key issues as debt limit deadline looms | CNN Politics

    Major differences remain over spending cuts and other key issues as debt limit deadline looms | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Negotiations are continuing to unfold in an attempt to reach a debt limit deal, but major differences between House Republicans and the White House have yet to be bridged, and the pressure is only intensifying as the risk of default grows ever more real with each day.

    Republicans have long said that spending cuts must be paired with any increase in the debt limit – an issue that is proving to be the central sticking point as Democrats argue the cuts Republicans want are too extreme, though the White House has expressed a willingness to cut some spending.

    Asked if there is any general agreements on cuts, GOP Rep. Garret Graves, who has served as a chief negotiator during the talks, said on Tuesday, “No, that’s our biggest gap.”

    Graves made clear that a wide array of significant differences remain, even as the timeline to avoid default grows shorter.

    “Look, there are some big bright red lines on both sides,” he said. “We do not have any of those issues closed out.”

    Underscoring just how far apart the two sides are, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told Republicans during a closed-door meeting on Tuesday, “We are nowhere near a deal,” according to sources in the room.

    The window to secure a deal is rapidly closing and the stakes are incredibly high with the Treasury Department continuing to say the US could default by June 1. A first-ever default for the US would likely trigger a global economic catastrophe.

    McCarthy met with President Joe Biden at the White House on Monday, a meeting the speaker and the president both said was “productive,” but that did not yield a breakthrough in negotiations or end in a deal.

    Congressional Democrats, meanwhile, continue to push back against positions Republicans have staked out in negotiations and express heightened concern over the ticking clock.

    House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar argued that Republicans have been pushed to take extreme positions by far-right members of the GOP conference.

    “This is tough, this is not where we should be. Speaker McCarthy is being held captive by the Freedom Caucus,” Aguilar told reporters on Tuesday.

    “We’re concerned that Republicans are not only moving the goalposts, but continue to hold onto the most extreme elements of their proposals,” he said.

    McCarthy, despite saying the two sides are still far apart, said Tuesday he thinks it is possible to get everything done by the June 1 deadline. “We could still finish this by June 1st,” he told reporters.

    But in a sign there may not be much room to maneuver in negotiations, McCarthy told CNN’s Manu Raju, “We’re going to raise the debt ceiling,” when asked what concessions he would make – a significant remark that indicates Republicans are not willing to give any more than raising the debt ceiling in exchange for their demands.

    When Raju pressed the speaker, asking if that is his only concession, McCarthy said, “Everything we’re going to do is going to make America stronger.”

    McCarthy’s comment Tuesday that raising the debt ceiling is the only concession he will make rankled a White House that just a day earlier viewed conversations with McCarthy as productive, according to two sources familiar with the negotiations.

    A Democratic official slammed McCarthy for his comments, accusing him of refusing to compromise and being beholden to the most conservative members of his caucus as negotiations languish.

    The official slammed McCarthy’s demand that defense spending increase while non-defense spending decrease as extreme and out of step with budget deals over the last decade.

    Another significant challenge facing negotiators is that even if a deal is reached, that is far from the end of the road to prevent default.

    Legislative text will need to be written, which can be arduous and complicated work as lawmakers and staff dive into nitty-gritty policy details – a part of the process toward final passage of any bill that can often lead to further issues and eleventh-hour hangups over disagreements about the fine print.

    Then, leaders from both parties will need to wrangle the votes to pass a bill, no small task with narrow majorities in both chambers. After that, a deal would need to be brought to the floor, a process that can take days to play out in both chambers, though there are mechanisms available to leadership to speed things up.

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  • Yellen warns Congress again that default could be just days away, but others forecast a little more time | CNN Politics

    Yellen warns Congress again that default could be just days away, but others forecast a little more time | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reinforced her warning to Congress that it has only a little time left to address the debt ceiling before the nation defaults on its obligations.

    It is “highly likely” that the agency will not be able to pay all of its bills in full and on time as soon as June 1, Yellen wrote in a letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday.

    “With an additional week of information now available, I am writing to note that we estimate that it is highly likely that Treasury will no longer be able to satisfy all of the government’s obligations if Congress has not acted to raise or suspend the debt limit by early June, and potentially as early as June 1,” she wrote.

    Yellen’s latest missive to Congress comes as White House and House GOP negotiators continue trying to hammer out a deal before the so-called X-date, when the nation would default.

    McCarthy, who is scheduled to meet with President Joe Biden on Monday, said “nothing is agreed to,” though there have been some good discussions. Among the sticking points is the depth of spending cuts.

    The speaker said that the package has to come together this week for the House to pass it and move it to the Senate.

    Yellen has spent much of May laying out the seriousness of a potential default, which would be a first for the US. She has said it could unleash a global economic recession and financial upheaval, as well as hurt millions of Americans who rely on federal government payments, including Social Security recipients, federal workers and Medicare providers.

    Several other analyses back up Yellen’s forecast that the X-date could arrive in early June, though they don’t necessarily think it’s as early as June 1.

    “Our projections show Treasury able to get to June 14 before exhausting its cash, but there is no room for error and this date can change,” Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist for Oxford Economics, wrote in a report Monday.

    Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs on Friday said the agency faces “clear risk of missing payments” on June 8 or June 9.

    Wells Fargo analysts said they are a bit more optimistic than Yellen that Treasury could get to June 15. The secretary has said that the odds are “quite low.”

    But they added that their confidence has been shaken by earlier forecast misses that underestimated the need for financing and the size of budget deficits. They noted that even in the best-case scenario, Treasury will not have a lot of funds on hand in the first half of next month.

    “Put another way, a fifty-fifty chance of an early June default in the absence of a debt ceiling increase is still very concerning and highlights the clear risk of hitting the X date in early June,” they wrote in a note.

    If Treasury can continue paying the bills into the middle of next month, then it’s likely the government won’t default until later in the summer. The agency will get another injection of funds from second quarter estimated tax payments, which are due June 15, and from $145 billion in an “extraordinary measure” that becomes available at the end of that month.

    Treasury had $60.7 billion in cash on hand as of Friday, according to federal data. The amount bounces around as the agency takes in revenue and makes payments, but the balance has declined from $238.5 billion at the start of the month, when the coffers were relatively flush from tax collections in April.

    Ever since the US hit its borrowing cap in January, Treasury has been forced to rely on cash and extraordinary measures to pay the bills until Congress addresses the debt ceiling. The agency had about $92 billion remaining in extraordinary measures as of Wednesday, down from around $220 billion at the end of January.

    This headline and story have been updated with additional information.

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  • Biden and McCarthy to discuss debt ceiling Monday as staff-level talks resume | CNN Politics

    Biden and McCarthy to discuss debt ceiling Monday as staff-level talks resume | CNN Politics

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    Hiroshima, Japan
    CNN
     — 

    Staff-level discussions over the debt ceiling and budget between the White House and congressional Republican will resume Sunday evening after President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy spoke by phone in the afternoon, according to a White House official.

    Biden and McCarthy will meet later on Monday, the official added.

    McCarthy said the phone call with Biden, who was aboard Air Force One returning to Washington from Japan, was “productive.”

    In an 18-minute gaggle with reporters at the US Capitol, the California Republican said that while the timing of the meeting was still being worked out, it was likely to be Monday afternoon. It is not expected to include other congressional leaders.

    McCarthy’s more optimistic tone comes after the president had issued a stark warning earlier Sunday that congressional Republicans could use a national default to damage him politically and acknowledged that time had run out to use potential unilateral actions to raise the federal borrowing limit, as the deadline to reach an agreement neared.

    Characterizing GOP proposals as “extreme” and warning they couldn’t gain sufficient support in Congress, Biden said he wasn’t able to promise fellow world leaders gathered in Hiroshima, Japan, for Group of Seven talks that the US would not default.

    “I can’t guarantee that they will not force a default by doing something outrageous,” he said at a news conference before he left for Washington.

    Biden’s remarks were the latest indication that talks between the White House and congressional Republicans remained far apart.

    Republicans have been seeking spending cuts in the federal budget in exchange for their support to raise the nation’s borrowing limit. On Sunday, Biden acknowledged “significant” disagreement with Republicans in some areas, insisting that while he’s willing to cut spending, tax “revenue is not off the table” as part of the deal.

    McCarthy, in an interview Sunday with Fox News, disagreed with that characterization, saying Biden previously told him that tax increases were “off the table” and that he wouldn’t agree to them.

    “He’s now bringing something to the table that everyone said was off the table,” the California Republican said. “It seems as though he wants to fault more than he wants a deal.”

    At his news conference, Biden said that much of what Republicans have proposed “is simply, quite frankly, unacceptable.”

    “It’s time for Republicans to accept that there’s no bipartisan deal to be made solely, solely on their partisan terms. … They have to move, as well,” the president said.

    Pressed on whether he would be to blame for a default scenario, Biden said that based on what he’s offered, he should be blameless but conceded that “no one will be blameless” as he suggested some of his political rivals could be encouraging a default to sabotage his reelection efforts.

    “I think there are some MAGA Republicans in the House who know the damage it would do to the economy, and because I am president, and a president is responsible for everything, Biden would take the blame and that’s the one way to make sure Biden’s not reelected,” he said.

    McCarthy, in turn, blamed what he called the “socialist wing of the Democratic Party” for driving Biden’s goals in the negotiations.

    “The president keeps changing positions every time Bernie Sanders has a press conference. He gets reactive and he shifts,” the speaker said as he arrived at the US Capitol in Washington on Sunday.

    Meanwhile, Biden’s top national security aide told CNN that the stalled debt ceiling and budget negotiations have not undercut American leadership abroad or undermined the G7 summit as it came to a close Sunday.

    “When you look at the totality of the last three days, it’s actually a reflection of and an exclamation point on the way in which President Biden has led on the world stage. People understand democracies, and they understand that there are moments in domestic politics when you have got to look at the home front,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.”

    Biden in his news conference addressed the possibility of using the 14th Amendment to continue US government borrowing in the absence of a deal, suggesting he has the power but not the time to utilize the unilateral action.

    “I think we have the authority. The question is, could it be done and invoked in time that it could not – would not be appealed?” Biden asked, calling the question of whether an appeal could be solved before the default deadline “unresolved.”

    Pressed by CNN’s Phil Mattingly to clarify whether he thought he could invoke the 14th Amendment as a serious and tangible option, the president made clear that maneuver would not be successful given the short window remaining.

    “We have not come up with unilateral action that could succeed in a matter of two weeks or three weeks. That’s the issue. So it’s up to lawmakers. But my hope and intention is to resolve this problem,” he said.

    Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana said Sunday a potential invocation of the 14th Amendment would be a “dodge.”

    “The president needs to show leadership. ‘OK, House Republicans, American people, you’re concerned about spending, I will meet you there. As opposed to finding a dodge that tries to work its way around,” Cassidy said.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated Sunday in an interview with NBC News that June 1 was a “hard deadline” for the US to raise the debt ceiling or risk defaulting on its obligations.

    But Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, said there may be some leeway.

    “The June 1st date was probably, according to Secretary Yellen, the earliest possible date,” the Pennsylvania Republican told CBS News, adding that “we do have enough cash flow” to “pay the interest on our debt.”

    “We’re going start to see the state tax revenues come in the second week of June, so I think we’re OK on that,” Fitzpatrick said.

    Biden had originally planned to stop in Australia and Papua New Guinea after the G7 summit in Hiroshima, but he canceled those portions of the trip amid the debt ceiling talks.

    On Saturday, Rep. Dusty Johnson, a McCarthy ally and chair of the centrist Main Street Caucus, confirmed that the White House had made an offer seeking to cap future spending at current levels, which Johnson called “unreasonable.”

    “The paper that the White House provided was a major step backward. And it undermined all the progress that was made Wednesday and Thursday. … It has endangered negotiations,” the South Dakota Republican said.

    On Sunday, McCarthy told reporters at the Capitol that GOP Reps. Garrett Graves of Louisiana and Patrick McHenry of North Carolina would begin conversations again with White House staff “so we can walk them through literally what we’ve been talking about.”

    Before news broke of the talks resuming, McHenry told CNN that he was “not at all” optimistic a deal could come together.

    “I’ve been pessimistic for a while, and something needs to change,” he said Sunday morning.

    Graves said both sides had “made a lot of progress in understanding one another’s positions, in understanding red lines” and that the negotiators were closer than when they had started.

    He said there were still discussions to be had over ancillary topics such as work requirements and permitting reform, but “the numbers are the baseline.”

    “The speaker has been very clear: A red line is spending less money, and unless and until we’re there, the rest of it is really irrelevant,” the Louisiana Republican said.

    This story and headline have been updated with additional developments.

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  • Could the Fed raise rates again in June? | CNN Business

    Could the Fed raise rates again in June? | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates at its next meeting in June — for the 11th time in a row — or pause? Wall Street seems to be betting on the latter, but it was a topsy-turvy journey to that consensus last week.

    What happened: The Fed’s meeting earlier this month fueled hopes that it was done with rate hikes, at least for now. Then, a slate of economic data last week came in stronger than expected.

    Retail spending rebounded in April after two months of declines, suggesting that consumers are still spending despite tightening their purse strings. Jobless claims declined more than expected for the week ended May 13, staying below historical averages.

    Traders saw a roughly 36% chance last Thursday that the Fed will raise rates by another quarter point in June, up from around 15.5% on May 12, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

    Then, Fed Chair Jerome Powell weighed in mid-morning Friday. In a panel with former Fed head Ben Bernanke, Powell said that uncertainty remains surrounding how much demand will decline from tighter credit conditions and the lagged effects of hiking rates. Traders pared down their expectations to about a 18.6% chance that the central bank will raise rates next month, as of Friday evening.

    Experts seem to agree that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates again in June. “The absence of any such preparation [for a raise] is the signal and gives us additional confidence that the Fed is not going to hike in June absent a very big surprise in the remaining data, though we should expect a hawkish pause,” Evercore ISI strategists said in a May 19 note.

    Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, also expects the Fed to hold rates steady in June. But that decision isn’t set in stone, and the Fed will likely monitor three key factors in making its decision, he said. Those are:

    • The debt ceiling. President Joe Biden and congressional leaders have maintained that the US will likely not default on its debt. But if such a scenario were to happen, it could have catastrophic consequences for the economy and financial markets that would require the Fed wait for the crisis to be resolved before taking action.
    • Evolving financial conditions. The collapses of regional lenders Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic have accelerated the tightening of credit conditions. While that has complicated the Fed’s plan to stabilize prices, it also could benefit the central bank by doing some of its work for it by slowing spending.
    • Delayed impact. The Fed’s interest rate hikes flow through the economy with a lag. So, it will take some months for the full effect of its aggressive tightening cycle to show up in the economy. That means the Fed could want to take a pause to monitor the continuing impact of what it has already done.

    The Fed has also maintained that its actions are data dependent, meaning it will keep close watch on economic data that comes in before it’s due to announce its next rate decision on June 14.

    Some key data points set for release before then include the April Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (that’s the Fed’s preferred inflation metric), May jobs report, the May Consumer Price Index and May Producer Price Index. (The latter two reports are due on the two days the Fed meets.)

    If these data points show considerable weakening in the labor market or continued declines in inflation, that helps make the case for a pause. But signs of a robust economy with little to no signs of slowing down could mean the Fed has more room to tighten — and that it could take that opportunity.

    Morgan Stanley chief executive James Gorman, 64, will step down from his role within the next 12 months, he said Friday at the bank’s annual meeting.

    “The specific timing of the CEO transition has not been determined, but it is the Board’s and my expectation that it will occur at some point in the next 12 months. That is the current expectation in the absence of a major change in the external environment,” Gorman said.

    Gorman, who is one of the longest-serving heads of a US bank and largely responsible for helping lead a sweeping transformation of the company after the 2008 financial crisis, became CEO in January 2010.

    He will assume the role of executive chairman for “a period of time,” Gorman said, adding that the board of directors has three senior internal candidates in the pipeline to potentially take over as the next chief executive.

    Read more here.

    The June 1 ‘X-date’ — the estimated point at which the US Treasury could run out of cash — is fast approaching. For JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, another key date is already here.

    The chief executive told Bloomberg earlier this month that he has held a so-called “war room” weekly to prepare the bank for the possibility the United States defaults on its debt. He plans to meet more often as the X-date approaches, and then meet every day by May 21, he said, adding that the meetings will eventually ramp up to take place three times a day.

    “I don’t think [a default] is going to happen, because it gets catastrophic,” Dimon said. “The closer you get to it, you will have panic.”

    Debt ceiling negotiations appeared to be going in a positive direction for most of last week. Both President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said that the United States is unlikely to default on its debt and seemed optimistic about the path to a deal.

    But debt ceiling talks between the White House and McCarthy’s office have hit a snag, and negotiators put a pause on the talks, multiple sources told CNN Friday.

    While that doesn’t mean the negotiations are falling completely apart, or that the country is headed for a default, it does pose more challenges for the stock market, which has stayed relatively resilient despite debt ceiling worries starting to slowly creep in.

    Dimon said in the same Bloomberg interview that he’d “love to get rid of the debt ceiling thing” altogether.

    The debt ceiling situation “is very unfortunate,” he said. “It should never happen this way.”

    Monday: JPMorgan Chase investor day.

    Tuesday: April new home sales. Earnings from Lowe’s (LOW).

    Wednesday: May Fed meeting minutes.

    Thursday: GDP Q1 second read, April pending home sales, mortgage rates and weekly jobless claims. Earnings from Costco (COST), Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Best Buy (BBY).

    Friday: April Personal Consumption Expenditures and May University of Michigan final consumer sentiment reading.

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  • Zelensky makes dramatic Japan appearance as G7 leaders take aim at Russia and China | CNN Politics

    Zelensky makes dramatic Japan appearance as G7 leaders take aim at Russia and China | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky joined leaders of major democracies on Saturday at a summit in Japan dominated by a push to present a unified front against both Russia and China.

    The Group of Seven (G7) talks in Hiroshima are seeking common ground on a host of global issues, including how to confront Beijing’s growing military and economic assertiveness as well as the war raging in Europe.

    Zelensky, dressed in his trademark military themed clothing, made a headline-grabbing entrance as he touched down on board a French government plane in a Japanese city once obliterated by a nuclear bomb.

    “Japan. G7. Important meetings with partners and friends of Ukraine. Security and enhanced cooperation for our victory. Peace will become closer today,” he tweeted moments after arriving before heading to a dizzying round of bilateral meetings with leaders at the summit.

    His attendance underscores the pressing need to maintain Western unity in the face of Russian aggression.

    With Russia’s aerial assaults pounding Ukrainian cities and Kyiv preparing for a counter offensive, there is a growing urgency to Zelensky’s appeals for more advanced weapons and tighter sanctions on Moscow.

    A joint communique issued by G7 nations on Saturday focused heavily on Russia’s war against Ukraine, which the block “condemned in the strongest possible terms”.

    “We reaffirm our unwavering support for Ukraine for as long as it takes to bring a comprehensive, just and lasting peace,” the communique read.

    A day earlier G7 nations announced a string of further sanctions against Moscow while US President Joe Biden told his counterparts he was dropping objections to providing Ukrainians F16 fighter jets and would train Ukrainian pilots in the United States, a major advance in US military support for the country.

    Biden is expected to unveil a $375 million military aid package to Ukraine after the summit hears from Zelensky, officials familiar with the matter said, but leaders are confronting a wide-ranging set of issues beyond the war-torn country during their talks, including climate change and emerging artificial intelligence technologies.

    But Russia is not the only focus of the three day gathering, which Zelensky is set to address on Sunday.

    China also features heavily.

    Differences persist between the United States and Europe in how to manage their increasingly fraught relationships with the world’s second largest economy.

    But in Saturday’s joint communique, leaders spoke in one voice on a series of positions related to China, including the need to counter “economic coercion” and protect advanced technologies that could threaten national security, while also stressing that cooperation with Beijing was necessary.

    “A growing China that plays by international rules would be of global interest. We are not decoupling or turning inwards,” the communique read.

    Leaders called on Beijing not to “conduct interference activities” that could undermine the “integrity of our democratic institutions and our economic prosperity” – an apparent nod to recent allegations that Beijing’s interfered in Canadian elections and operates of a network of overseas police stations across the globe.

    A separate joint statement on economic security made no specific mention of China – while explicitly referencing Russia – but its intended audience was unmistakably Beijing’s leadership.

    The leaders called for enhancing supply chain resilience, hitting back against “harmful industrial subsidies,” and protecting sensitive technologies crucial to national security – all areas that leaders have expressed concerns about in recent years in relation to China’s economic practices.

    Western leaders and officials were more direct in framing the measures as a response to threats from China in comments made around the statement.

    Ahead of its release on Saturday, the United Kingdom released a statement on G7 measures against economic coercion, which pointed to China’s use of its “economic power to coerce countries including Australia and Lithuania over political disputes.”

    China is “engaged in a concerted and strategic economic contest,” and nations “should be clear-eyed” about the growing challenge we face,” Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said in the statement released by Downing Street, which also referenced Russia’s “weaponization” of Europe’s energy supplies.

    European Commission President Ursual von der Leyen welcomed the G7 action in a statement Saturday that nations must be “aware of the risk of weaponization of interdependencies,” but “urged de-risking not decoupling” – a term she has used to refer to how the EU should approach its economic relationship with China.

    China has already pushed back on ahead of G7 discussions, with its Foreign Ministry on Thursday posting a more than 5,000 word document on its website that reached back as far as 1960s Cuba to point to what it described as examples of “America’s Coercive Diplomacy and Its Harm.”

    “The US often accuses other countries of using great power status, coercive policies and economic coercion to pressure other countries into submission and engage in coercive diplomacy,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said in a regular press briefing in Beijing Friday.

    “The fact is, the US is the very origin of coercive diplomacy. It is the US and the US alone who owns the copyrights of coercive diplomacy,” he said, adding that China has “no taste for coercion and bullying.”

    Climate change was also a major theme of this weekend’s gathering with the joint communique including a pledge that the G7 would drive the economic transition to clean energy.

    “We commit to realizing the transformation of the economic and social system towards net-zero, circular, climate-resilient, pollution-free and nature-positive economies,” the communique read.

    The leaders also signaled they would closely monitor the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), by advancing discussions on AI governance and interoperability in line with “shared democratic values.”

    Biden is balancing his world leader talks with updates from the standoff over the US debt ceiling in Washington – a “subject of interest” in the president’s summit meetings, according to Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

    “Countries want to have a sense of how these negotiations are going to play out. And the president has expressed confidence that he believes that we can drive to an outcome where we do avoid default, and part of the reason that he’s returning home tomorrow, rather than continuing with the rest of the trip, is so that he can help lead the effort to bring it home,” Sullivan said.

    Speaking to reporters as he met Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Japan, Biden said he was not concerned “at all” about negotiations with House Republicans to avoid a default.

    “This goes in stages. I’ve been in these negotiations before,” Biden said.

    Biden, who departed a leaders’ dinner early on Friday to return to his hotel to receive additional information from staff, has gotten continual updates on the negotiations underway in Washington.

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  • Debt ceiling talks hit a snag, negotiators press pause for now | CNN Politics

    Debt ceiling talks hit a snag, negotiators press pause for now | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Debt ceiling talks between the White House and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s office have hit a snag, and negotiators have put a pause on the talks, multiple sources tell CNN.

    Negotiators met briefly in the Capitol on Friday before breaking up, and as of right now, there are no more meetings scheduled for the day.

    This setback dashes hopes that there could be a deal in principle by this weekend.

    McCarthy confirmed that talks have paused, saying there’s not enough “movement” from the White House and suggested that spending levels are part of the issue.

    “We’ve got to get movement by the White House. And we don’t have any movement yet,” McCarthy told reporters as he headed into the Capitol.

    Asked why he had such an optimistic tone one day earlier, McCarthy said, “I really felt we were at the location where I could see the path. The White House is just – we can’t be spending more money next year. We have to spend less than the year before. It’s pretty easy.”

    McCarthy said he has not spoken to the president and did not answer questions about next steps.

    Time is of the essence and pressure is building to raise the borrowing limit ahead of June 1, which is the earliest date the Treasury Department says the government could be unable to pay its bills. If the US were to default, it would likely trigger a global economic catastrophe.

    GOP Rep. Garret Graves, who is leading negotiations for House Republicans, left a brief meeting with negotiators in the morning saying the situation was “not productive.” He said he is not sure they will meet again this weekend.

    “Until people are willing to have reasonable conversations about how you can actually can move forward and do the right thing we aren’t going to sit here and talk to ourselves. That’s what’s going on,” Graves said.

    As talks stalled, a White House official acknowledged that there are “real differences” and “talks will be difficult,” but said the president’s negotiating team is working to reach a “reasonable bipartisan solution.”

    This story has been updated with additional information.

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  • Biden and G7 leaders prepare new Russia sanctions as Zelensky expected to attend Japan summit | CNN Politics

    Biden and G7 leaders prepare new Russia sanctions as Zelensky expected to attend Japan summit | CNN Politics

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    Hiroshima, Japan
    CNN
     — 

    US President Joe Biden and fellow world leaders were unveiling tough new sanctions on Russia as they prepare to hear in-person later this weekend from Volodomyr Zelensky, who officials said was planning a dramatic trip to Japan as he continues to appeal for military assistance amid Russia’s invasion.

    The new sanctions are designed to plug loopholes and go after untapped industries as western leaders continue to work toward choking off Moscow’s war financing.

    A dedicated G7 session on Ukraine was set for Friday afternoon. The war was expected to be a central topic of discussion among leaders here as Ukrainian forces prepare for a counteroffensive.

    The high point will come when Zelensky addresses the group in person. Officials declined to say exactly when Zelensky would arrive or detail his travel arrangements. He has been traveling outside his country more as the war grinds onward, including a tour of Europe last week.

    The lengthy trip from Ukraine to Hiroshima, where leaders from the world’s most powerful democracies are gathering, underscores Zelensky’s desire to strengthen support fourteen months into the war.

    The menacing nuclear undertones to Russia’s invasion were placed into sharp relief as the summit got underway. Leaders laid wreaths at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial, the epicenter of the American atomic bomb dropped here in 1945 that wiped out the city and more than 100,000 of its inhabitants while hastening the end of World War II.

    In the background was the Atomic Bomb Dome, now a monument and UNESCO World Heritage Site. The dome was formerly the Hiroshima Prefectural Industrial Promotion Hall, and the atomic blast struck almost directly above it, leaving the frame of its iron dome largely intact.

    It was against that backdrop that Biden and his fellow leaders entered three days of talks.

    The US said Friday it would tighten export controls, including by “extensively restricting categories of goods key to the battlefield,” and will announce nearly 300 new sanctions against “individuals, entities, vessels, and aircraft.”

    Additionally, the US will place new designations across Europe, the Middle East and Asia, and expand its sanctions authorities to further target Russia’s economy.

    The United Kingdom said it will ban the import of Russian diamonds, as part of its latest sanctions against Moscow, Downing Street announced on Friday. The move aims to restrict one of Russia’s few remaining export industries that had been relatively untouched by the withering western sanctions already in place.

    Imports of Russian-origin copper, aluminum, and nickel will also be banned under the UK legislation, which will be introduced later this year, the prime minister’s office said in a statement.

    The Russian diamond industry was worth $4 billion in exports in 2021, according to Downing Street.

    Biden faces his fellow world leaders Friday in Japan under the shadow of a looming default on US debt, a scenario his advisers said risks subverting American leadership and sending the global economy into tailspin.

    The risk appears particularly acute as Biden works to rally fellow G7 officials behind a shared approach toward Russia and China. On the first day of the summit talks, the group is expected to unveil a new tightening of sanctions on Moscow – a response to the invasion of Ukraine that relies on the strength of the American financial system.

    Before arriving, Biden was briefed on the debt ceiling standoff by aides.

    “The President’s team informed him that steady progress is being made,” a White House official said.

    The call lasted 20-30 minutes, press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told pool reporters traveling with the President. A separate source with knowledge of the talks said — despite the optimism and positive signals — there is a long way to go to get a deal and it’s unclear if negotiators reach one by this weekend or if it will slip into next week.

    How much the debt standoff arises in Biden’s talks in Hiroshima remains to be seen; some European officials said they had been down similar roads before as American leaders worked to avert financial disaster only to find a solution at the last moment.

    But even if it does not arise substantially in the many hours of leaders’ meetings spanning the next three days, the risk of default remains the backdrop against which Biden will attempt to project strength this week in Japan.

    “Debt ceiling brinkmanship that Republicans are driving in Washington, DC, undermines American leadership, undermines the trustworthiness that America can bring to not just our allies and partners but to the rest of the world,” a senior administration official said as Biden began the high-stakes G7 summit.

    Biden cut his trip to Asia short to return to Washington early as negotiations continue over raising the US borrowing limit ahead of June 1, the earliest date by which the country could run out of cash to pay its bills.

    An extensive agenda of issues, including Ukraine, China and artificial intelligence, are all up for discussion. But it was clear from Biden’s decision to cancel planned stops in Australia and Papua New Guinea – Secretary of State Antony Blinken will make a two-day visit to the latter instead – that other matters are weighing on the US president’s time.

    To that end, Biden brought with him to Japan a top domestic policy aide, Bruce Reed, to keep him continually updated on the status of talks between White House aides and congressional Republicans.

    Just the threat of default has the potential to weaken American diplomatic authority, the official said, citing a sanctions regime on Russia that relies on the strength of the US financial system.

    “All of those things reduce America’s capacity to lead,” the official said.

    Biden’s meetings with fellow leaders in Hiroshima will present “an opportunity to highlight just how essential it is that that the Republicans work to get this done expeditiously with the president, because a lot is riding on ensuring that the United States continues to lead and lead alongside the G7.”

    Nowhere is that more evident than Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. The conflict will be a key topic of discussion for world leaders Friday.

    “All G7 members are preparing to implement new sanctions and export controls,” the senior official said, framing the US package of sanctions as “substantial.”

    The official previewed a five-pronged plan of new steps G7 nations are taking more broadly to further economically isolate Russia, including efforts to disrupt Russia’s ability to source inputs for its war and to close loopholes that have allowed certain Russian entities to evade existing sanctions.

    The sanctions come 14 months after Russia launched its invasion and as Ukraine prepares for a counteroffensive using billions of dollars in Western military aid.

    Biden and fellow leaders were planning to discuss how much progress has been made on the battlefield, with an eye toward helping Ukraine regain territory and assume leverage in potential peace talks.

    While the US remains Ukraine’s largest contributor of military assistance, some leaders have begun calling for ever-more-advanced weapons, including fighter jets, to send Kyiv. Biden has resisted those calls as he works to prevent an escalation.

    This story has been updated with additional developments.

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  • 8-year-old girl dies in US Customs and Border Protection custody | CNN

    8-year-old girl dies in US Customs and Border Protection custody | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    An 8-year-old girl died while in US Customs and Border Protection custody in Harlingen, Texas, the agency said Wednesday.

    The girl and her family were in custody at a CBP facility when she “experienced a medical emergency,” the agency said in a news release Wednesday night, without providing details.

    “Emergency Medical Services were called to the station and transported her to the local hospital where she was pronounced dead,” the release said.

    The Office of Professional Responsibility is investigating her death, as is consistent with protocol, CBP officials said.

    The child’s death comes days after an unaccompanied Honduran 17-year-old housed at a Florida shelter died while under the care of the US Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of Refugee Resettlement, according to a congressional notice obtained by CNN last week.

    Last week, immigration officials said in a court filing that surging migration coupled with the termination of Title 42 “is overwhelming U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) facilities, risking widespread health and safety risks to migrants, government employees, and the public.”

    Detention facilities along the US-Mexico border surpassed capacity after an uptick in migrant crossings ahead of the expiration of Title 42, a Covid-era border restriction that was lifted last week.

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  • European Union upgrades outlook for economy as energy prices retreat | CNN Business

    European Union upgrades outlook for economy as energy prices retreat | CNN Business

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    Questions swirl about the strength of China’s recovery from Covid lockdowns, and there’s talk of recession in the United States. Yet Europe’s economic prospects have brightened in recent months, according to the European Commission.

    The EU’s executive arm on Monday upgraded its growth outlook for 2023 and 2024. It now expects the EU economy to expand 1% this year, up from an estimate of 0.8% in February. Growth next year is pegged at 1.7%, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage points.

    The improved forecast for Europe — which narrowly dodged a recession this winter — still represents a marked slowdown on last year, when the bloc’s economy grew 3.5%.

    But it reflects sharply lower energy prices, which are reducing costs for businesses and easing the strain on households. A strong job market and ongoing government stimulus are also providing a lift.

    Even so, the Commission acknowledged that higher borrowing costs aimed at taming rising prices will weigh on growth in the months to come. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point this month, the smallest increase since it started hiking in July, but hinted at further rate hikes to come given stubbornly high inflation.

    “The key factors underpinning this forecast go in opposite directions: on the one hand, declining energy prices and a resilient labor market and, on the other hand, tightening financial conditions,” Paolo Gentiloni, the European Commission’s economy minister, said at a press conference.

    “Heightened risk perception” among banks after recent tumult in the sector is making it harder to access credit, while rising rates are eating into loan demand, Gentiloni noted.

    Significant divergence is also expected among countries in the European Union. Growth in Germany, the bloc’s biggest economy, is expected to slow sharply to 0.2% in 2023. Meanwhile, Italy’s output could increase by 1.2%, and Portugal’s economy could expand by 2.4%.

    Separately, industrial production data for Europe published Monday showed signs of weakness. Production fell 4.1% in March among the 20 countries that use the euro, worse than economists had expected.

    “With the tailwinds from lower energy prices and easing semiconductor shortages apparently exhausted and the economy struggling with tighter monetary policy, we expect industrial output to contract slightly over the rest of the year,” Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients.

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  • American consumers are growing worried about a US debt default | CNN

    American consumers are growing worried about a US debt default | CNN

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    US consumer sentiment worsened in May as Americans grew concerned about the economy’s direction and a potential default of the US government’s debt, according to a preliminary report from the University of Michigan Friday.

    The political impasse over raising the debt ceiling has dragged on for weeks and is inching closer to the day the federal government will not be able to fully meet its financial obligations. Consumers are now taking notice.

    “While current incoming macroeconomic data show no sign of recession, consumers’ worries about the economy escalated in May alongside the proliferation of negative news about the economy, including the debt crisis standoff,” Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys of consumers at the University of Michigan, said in a release. “If policymakers fail to resolve the debt ceiling crisis, these dismal views over the economy will exacerbate the dire economic consequences of default.”

    The latest survey showed that the university’s consumer-sentiment index fell by 9% in May. The index’s latest decline wiped out more than half of its gains since recovering from the record low in June 2022.

    “In Washington’s past fiscal games of chicken, sentiment recovered within a few months of the crises ending,” Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, wrote in analyst note. “On the other hand, if the government defaults, it won’t be pretty.”

    Pessimism among consumers can have an impact on their spending behavior if their expectations worsen and they decide to pull back. Some data have already pointed to demand for goods weakening some.

    US household spending was flat in March from the prior month, after limping just 0.1% in February. Retail sales sank 0.8% in March from the prior month, following a 0.5% decline in February. The Commerce Department releases April figures on retail spending next week, which will offer additional clues into how demand is shaping up as credit conditions tighten.

    A trio of recent bank failures mean that banks are poised to toughen their lending standards even more, which can dampen demand. A recent survey of loan officers showed that banks were making it harder to access credit even before the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Stack on top of that the Federal Reserve’s punishing interest-rate increases and still-high inflation, and consumers might just tap out.

    Many economists, including those at the Fed, expect the US economy to slip into a recession later in the year. A recession is a broad economic downturn that would include weakness in consumption.

    The Conference Board’s sentiment survey showed that consumer confidence worsened in April as Americans became more worried about the jobs market. The business group’s Consumer Confidence Index, which measures attitudes toward the economy and the job market, fell to 101.3 in April, down from 104 in March and marking the lowest level since July 2022.

    The labor market is still going strong. Employers added 253,000 jobs in April, a robust gain, and the unemployment rate fell back to a 53-year low of 3.4% that month. That’s good news, but the job market still isn’t balanced, because “labor demand still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his news conference after officials voted to raise the central bank’s benchmark lending rate by a quarter point earlier this month.

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  • Another key inflation gauge cooled further in April | CNN Business

    Another key inflation gauge cooled further in April | CNN Business

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Wholesale annual inflation slowed in April, adding to signs that price pressures are easing.

    The Producer Price Index, a key measure of price changes at the wholesale level, slowed to 2.3% for the 12 months ended in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

    That was below the annual increase of 2.7% in March and economists’ expectations of a 2.4% increase. It’s also the slowest annual increase since 2021.

    On a monthly basis, prices ticked up 0.2%. During the previous month, they fell by 0.4%.

    This story is developing and will be updated.

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