ReportWire

Tag: Economics

  • Business briefs

    Business briefs

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    PEOPLEIan Staber recently joined SV Design in Beverly as the project manager for the firm’s commercial architecture team. Staber brings 13 years of experience ranging from architectural design, kitchen and cabinet design, project management, and facilities management, having worked for multiple firms between Connecticut, the Boston area and Colorado. As project manager at SV Design, he oversees several local, affordable housing developments and is working on multifamily and institutional projects from conception to completion. Staber has a bachelor’s degree and master’s in architecture from Northeastern University. Most recently, he had worked with Seger Architects in Salem on projects ranging from office fit-outs, multifamilies, dormitories, and restaurants. He lives in Salem with his wife and two kids. On the side, he creates custom calligraphy designs and paints large scale murals as Esoteric Calligraffiti.

    Lou DiFronzo, Matthew LaLone and Carole Wedge were recently elected to the board of directors for Northeast Arc, a nonprofit organization based in Danvers that serves children and adults with disabilities. DiFronzo, who lives in North Reading, is a partner at Seyfarth Shaw, LLP, and provides advisory legal services to his clients concentrating in commercial transactions and general outside counsel counseling to private companies. He has been involved in numerous complex financing and M&A transactions helping his clients to achieve their business objectives. LaLone, who lives in Melrose, is President of Administration and General Counsel at Energy North, one of the largest wholesale distributors of fuel in New England and Upstate New York. It also operates and owns 70 gas stations, convenience stores, car washes and food service locations as well as providing 45,000 households with heating oil and propane. Wedge, who lives in Concord, recently retired as a principal at Shepley Bulfinch, a national design firm with studios in Boston, Durham, Hartford, Houston, and Phoenix. As the former president and CEO, she is recognized for her leadership in the firm’s evolution and growth into an innovative organization with an open and diverse culture.

    MILESTONESWilliam Raveis Real Estate recently won the National Top Brokerage Award at Inman Connect in Las Vegas. Since 1998, the Inman Innovator Awards have honored companies, individuals and new technology that increases productivity, efficiency and transparency for consumers and real estate professionals alike. Out of more than 150,000 real estate firms in the country, only a handful of companies meet the criteria to qualify. Inman’s highest honor of “Top Brokerage 2023” was awarded to Raveis, which has been a real estate industry leader for 50 years. “We’ve been on a winning streak with number one for global, HGTV Ultimate House Hunt, best local agency awards, and now we are officially the number one real estate company in the United States,” said founder and CEO William “Bill” Raveis. “We are very proud to be recognized and owe our outstanding success to the wonderful sales associates and employees at William Raveis.” The company has more than 4,500 sales associates, 400 employees, and over 140 office locations from Maine to Florida, with local offices in Marblehead and other North Shore communities.

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  • Study reveals high social mobility in China’s Tang dynasty.

    Study reveals high social mobility in China’s Tang dynasty.

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    Newswise — In studying social mobility in today’s industrialized nations, researchers typically rely on data from the World Economic Forum or, in the United States, the General Social Survey. But examining the same phenomena from past centuries is a more daunting task because relevant statistics are harder to come by. 

    However, a social science research team has now discovered a way to examine professional advancement in medieval China (618-907 CE) by drawing from the tomb epitaphs during the Tang Dynasty. These epitaphs contain the ancestral lineages, names, and office titles (e.g., Minister of Personnel, Minister of the Court of Judicial Review, and Palace Deputy Imperial Censor) of the deceased’s father and grandfather as well as the deceased’s career history and educational credentials—ample data points for measuring social mobility across generations. 

    Notably, their analysis shows that education during this period was a catalyst for social mobility.

    “Epitaphs written in medieval China, including the Tang Dynasty, tend to be highly detailed descriptions of an individual’s life with stylized prose and poems, and they contain granular information about the ancestral origins, family background, and career history of each deceased individual,” says Fangqi Wen, an assistant professor of sociology at Ohio State University. 

    “This information, to some extent, mirrors what would have been included in a contemporary social mobility survey,” adds Erik H. Wang, an assistant professor in NYU’s Department of Politics.

    Wang studies historical political economy while Wen examines social mobility in contemporary societies. After recognizing the high level of data quality embedded in these epitaphs, they realized that the artifacts were a vessel that merged their scholarly interests. Later they recruited the NYU professor of sociology Michael Hout, Wen’s dissertation advisor and a leading scholar on social stratification and mobility, to join the project.

    Their findings, which appear in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), show that the patterns of relationships of social origins, education, and adult achievement somewhat resemble the patterns in the United States in the 1960s and 1970s. In drawing from 3,640 epitaphs of males as well as other data from reliable historical sources, such as dynastic records and third-party compiled genealogies, the researchers’ analysis revealed a decline of Chinese medieval aristocracy and the rise of meritocracy 1300 years ago.

    The researchers discovered a specific reason for this development: whether or not the deceased passed the Keju, or the Imperial Exam, which was developed during this period for the purposes of selecting officials for civil service posts. They found that the Keju, which was administered until the early 20th century, served as a catalyst for social mobility—much as higher education has done in the U.S. since at least the 1960s.

    “Our statistical analysis shows that coming from a prominent ancient great house or ‘branch’

    mattered less for career success in the bureaucratic system after roughly 650 CE while passing the Keju came to matter more,” the authors write. “Furthermore, passing the competitive exam may have even equalized chances of subsequent success, as a father’s status was not a factor in the bureaucratic rank of men who passed the Keju.”

    “Education is central to our understanding of intergenerational mobility,” observes Hout. “Many think it was a 20th-century development. But, as we can see from centuries-old data, there are phenomena linking origin, education, and careers very much like contemporary patterns.”

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    New York University

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  • Invest in Growth or Cut Costs? 3 Things Top Companies Do Well Despite Economic Uncertainty | Entrepreneur

    Invest in Growth or Cut Costs? 3 Things Top Companies Do Well Despite Economic Uncertainty | Entrepreneur

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    Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

    Will there be a recession? Are we in a downturn? Even economists can’t agree. Still, entrepreneurs are busy planning, projecting, and looking into the future. There are countless decisions to be made, but one of the most critical is what strategy your company will pursue this year — is it a year of growth or status quo?

    Since founding my PR agency in 2008, I’ve had a front-row seat to high-growth companies — or those with the ambition to be high-performing. CEOs of hyper-growth companies look at the world differently; external conditions are a consideration, not a driving force, because thriving companies know the cream always rises to the top and build their strategies around getting there.

    When uncertainty is clouding decision-making, there is a lot of pressure to turn to cost-cutting.

    The reality is: It doesn’t matter if a recession is looming — a company in your category will be No. 1 in revenue this year regardless. If it’s your company, it will be because you controlled the things you could. Since 2008, I’ve seen thriving companies do these things with total clarity, regardless of economic conditions.

    Related: 10 Growth Strategies Every Business Owner Should Know

    Reinvestment that aligns with growth

    Ambitious companies know cost-cutting has never led to growth — ever. It may increase profitability, but that’s a different strategy. Growth strategies require investment.

    Commonly, bean counters say things like “our salespeople make too much” or “there’s no direct line to sales with this initiative,” that’s their job — to point out these potential concerns.

    But high-growth CEOs know companies in high-growth mode operate knowing that every dollar they invest has a return because they invest in the right places for growth. When that ROI starts to flatten, you’re in maintenance mode, not growth mode.

    Thriving companies align investment with growth. They spend money on marketing, sales and PR because those are the levers you pull when you’re growing or want to grow. The average company with $10 million to $25 million in revenues spent 15% of its revenue on marketing initiatives. If you want to be average, there’s your baseline. If you want to be dominant, you must stretch that budget, and it may mean giving up some profitability in the short term.

    Growth-oriented CEOs know spending on growth is essential for the next phase, whether IPO, acquisition or capital infusions. Everyone loves a winner — the goal is to be the winner in the eyes of your stakeholders who carry you to your ultimate goal.

    Related: Why You Need to Reinvest Half of What You Earn Back Into Your Company

    Support their sales process vigorously

    It doesn’t matter if you sell to businesses or consumers. Not all sales activities have a direct line to a sale.

    What does lead to sales is consistent exposure and relationship building. Relationships are a differentiator in today’s very crowded, very competitive marketplaces. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in the first half of 2023, 3.12 million businesses were started, meaning new business starts in 2023 are trending against historical averages. Starting a business has never been easier; every business has competitors chomping at their heels. Now, only 6% of businesses ever reach revenues over $1 million, so those companies aren’t your competition — yet. But one of those companies that started three years ago is probably creeping up on you, and you don’t even know it yet.

    Salespeople or sales channels need visibility, and they need a reason to engage and start a conversation with potential buyers. If every discussion begins with “we have a deal for you,” then you are conditioning your buyers to wait for a sale to buy. That’s not a winning tactic unless you can win the race to the bottom.

    Enterprise and publicly traded companies often use this strategy — and it’s sometimes a reason companies want to IPO, so they have the budget to win this battle and be the dominant player; once they own the marketplace, they’ll be able to raise rates with impunity — at least for a while. Most privately owned businesses cannot win this war, so they must be growth-minded and remember to support the sales process.

    Your marketplace positioning dictates how you support your sales team and sales initiatives. If you want to be No. 1, you need to be the most trusted and visible, so allocate your marketing budget with that split in mind. If you’re already the most trusted of your competitors, you may only spend 40% of your budget on trust-based initiatives like PR, face-to-face initiatives or events. If you’re already getting visibility but aren’t closing the deal, investing in trust is essential. One reason people invest in PR is because it provides both exposure and trust. Trust isn’t a line item on a spreadsheet, but you can plainly see it in key performance indicators (KPIs).

    Related: This Strategic Growth Lever is Right Under Your Nose. Harness It To Multiply Your Company’s Success.

    Track success metrics unique to the initiatives

    Everyone tracks revenue and profitability. But companies in growth mode track KPIs that give them insight into trust and reach. Thriving companies value their reach and reputation together.

    Trust KPIs should be a steady build with noticeable year-over differences. If you were building a house, trust is your foundation.

    Trust KPIs could be:

    • Time to convert
    • Direct website visits
    • Brand mentions
    • Brand associations (how trusted are the other brands you associate with)
    • Revenue per new customer
    • Return on ad spend (ROAS)

    Awareness KPIs are important because exposure matters. Back to the house analogy, awareness KPIs would be your framing.

    Awareness KPIs could be:

    • Impressions
    • Incoming leads
    • Reach (ads, media mentions, social media)

    Growth CEOs track these metrics over time. Monitoring over time is essential because growth is like a train. It moves slowly at first, but once it starts to build steam, the speed of growth happens faster, assuming you keep fueling growth.

    It’s a radical idea to ignore external factors — but that’s exactly what CEOs of ambitious companies do to grow. Growth mode isn’t a way of life; aggressive growth is the pathway to the next step, and during that time, there will be some eggs cracked to make an omelet. But I’ve noticed CEOs investing in, measuring and staying the course with growth do so with laser focus and focus on controlling the factors they can control.

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    Tara Coomans

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  • Some mosquitoes like it hot

    Some mosquitoes like it hot

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    Newswise — Certain populations of mosquitoes are more heat tolerant and better equipped to survive heat waves than others, according to new research from Washington University in St. Louis.

    This is bad news in a world where vector-borne diseases are an increasingly global health concern. Most models that scientists use to estimate vector-borne disease risk currently assume that mosquito heat tolerances do not vary. As a result, these models may underestimate mosquitoes’ ability to spread diseases in a warming world.

    Researchers led by Katie M. Westby, a senior scientist at Tyson Research Center, Washington University’s environmental field station, conducted a new study that measured the critical thermal maximum (CTmax), an organism’s upper thermal tolerance limit, of eight populations of the globally invasive tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus. The tiger mosquito is a known vector for many viruses including West Nile, chikungunya and dengue.

    “We found significant differences across populations for both adults and larvae, and these differences were more pronounced for adults,” Westby said. The new study is published Jan. 8 in Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution.

    Westby’s team sampled mosquitoes from eight different populations spanning four climate zones across the eastern United States, including mosquitoes from locations in New Orleans; St. Augustine, Fla.; Huntsville, Ala.; Stillwater, Okla.; St. Louis; Urbana, Ill.; College Park, Md.; and Allegheny County, Pa.

    The scientists collected eggs in the wild and raised larvae from the different geographic locations to adult stages in the lab, tending the mosquito populations separately as they continued to breed and grow. The scientists then used adults and larvae from subsequent generations of these captive-raised mosquitoes in trials to determine CTmax values, ramping up air and water temperatures at a rate of 1 degree Celsius per minute using established research protocols.

    The team then tested the relationship between climatic variables measured near each population source and the CTmax of adults and larvae. The scientists found significant differences among the mosquito populations.

    The differences did not appear to follow a simple latitudinal or temperature-dependent pattern, but there were some important trends. Mosquito populations from locations with higher precipitation had higher CTmax values. Overall, the results reveal that mean and maximum seasonal temperatures, relative humidity and annual precipitation may all be important climatic factors in determining CTmax.

    “Larvae had significantly higher thermal limits than adults, and this likely results from different selection pressures for terrestrial adults and aquatic larvae,” said Benjamin Orlinick, first author of the paper and a former undergraduate research fellow at Tyson Research Center. “It appears that adult Ae. albopictus are experiencing temperatures closer to their CTmax than larvae, possibly explaining why there are more differences among adult populations.”

    “The overall trend is for increased heat tolerance with increasing precipitation,” Westby said. “It could be that wetter climates allow mosquitoes to endure hotter temperatures due to decreases in desiccation, as humidity and temperature are known to interact and influence mosquito survival.”

    Little is known about how different vector populations, like those of this kind of mosquito, are adapted to their local climate, nor the potential for vectors to adapt to a rapidly changing climate. This study is one of the few to consider the upper limits of survivability in high temperatures — akin to heat waves — as opposed to the limits imposed by cold winters.

    “Standing genetic variation in heat tolerance is necessary for organisms to adapt to higher temperatures,” Westby said. “That’s why it was important for us to experimentally determine if this mosquito exhibits variation before we can begin to test how, or if, it will adapt to a warmer world.”

    Future research in the lab aims to determine the upper limits that mosquitoes will seek out hosts for blood meals in the field, where they spend the hottest parts of the day when temperatures get above those thresholds, and if they are already adapting to higher temperatures. “Determining this is key to understanding how climate change will impact disease transmission in the real world,” Westby said. “Mosquitoes in the wild experience fluctuating daily temperatures and humidity that we cannot fully replicate in the lab.”

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    Washington University in St. Louis

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  • Researchers receive USDA grant to study changing food spending patterns

    Researchers receive USDA grant to study changing food spending patterns

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    Newswise — After a long day, there’s the age-old question of do we eat out or stay in?

    Over the last decade, that answer has increasingly shifted to eating out.

    In that timeframe, households have increasingly spent more money on food outside of the home than what’s spent on eating at home. In that same time, the farmer’s share of the food dollar eaten outside of the home has declined while the share of food eaten at home has increased.

    With a more than $550,000 grant from the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, researchers George Davis and Anubhab Gupta, in the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics in Virginia Tech’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, are studying the effects of the changing food spending patterns on the profitability and welfare of farmers, food processors, and consumers, or welfare through the United States’ food supply chain.

    “Our project aims to look at the changing profitability and welfare effects in the food supply chain while recognizing that the effects will depend on the underlying market structure and consumer socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors,” said George Davis, professor in the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics and project lead.

    The research team has four objectives:

    • Look at how the difference between retail food prices and farm prices have changed over time as spending on food at home and food away from home has changed
    • Determine to what extent consumers have benefitted from the change in eating food at home versus food away from home.
    • Consider what role the degree of competition within the food supply chain has affected profitability and welfare for the farmer, processors, and consumers as food spending patterns have changed.
    • Consider how alternative policies affecting food at home and food away from home spending will affect profitability and welfare throughout the food supply chain.

    The project will combine well-established research areas that have not been joined before to understand important policy-relevant questions regarding price and quantity relationships, market structure, and welfare distribution throughout the associated market.

    To achieve the objectives, the team will utilize public-use consumer expenditure survey microdata from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER-CES Manufacturing Industry Database, and estimates from the literature.

    “Our integrated framework will answer important policy and scenario questions related to socioeconomic and demographic profile of consumers, COVID-19, Ukraine war, etc. on welfare distribution throughout the food supply chain, while extending our knowledge on the four strands of literature and a unique way of integrating them,” Davis said.

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    Virginia Tech

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  • Abstract Submission Opening Soon for 2024 AANEM Annual Meeting

    Abstract Submission Opening Soon for 2024 AANEM Annual Meeting

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    Newswise — Rochester, Minn. (Dec. 29, 2023)- The American Association of Neuromuscular &Electrodiagnostic Medicine (AANEM), is excited to share that the Abstract Submission Application opens January 1, 2024, for the upcoming AANEM Annual Meeting.

    The deadline for abstract submissions is March 15 and all abstracts that are accepted will be notified on June 1. Accepted abstract presenters are required to attend the 2024 AANEM Annual Meeting to present their poster. Those who submit a qualifying abstract will be considered for the following awards: President’s Research Initiative Award, Golseth Young Investigator Award, Residency & Fellowship Member Award, Technologist Best Abstract Award, Medical Student Research Award, and Surinderjit Singh Young Lectureship Award.

    The 2024 AANEM Annual Meeting plenary topic, selected by AANEM President, Dianna Quan, MD, will be The Confluence of Two Pipelines. The topic is about the pipeline of discovery and innovation that has been providing truly groundbreaking treatments for NMDs, and the delivery and workforce pipeline that is under pressure to realize the promise of these treatments for all NM patients who need them. “The meeting will have scientific sessions showcasing new ideas in neuromuscular disease pathophysiology and therapeutic developments. We are also going to talk about solutions in workforce education and development, artificial intelligence, interdisciplinary care, and medical ethics and economics,” said Quan.

    The 2024 AANEM Annual Meeting will take place virtually and in-person Tuesday, Oct. 15 –Friday, Oct. 18, in Savannah, Georgia, at the Savannah Convention Center. For more information regarding the abstraction submission process, reference the AANEM AbstractSubmission Information form.

    About American Association of Neuromuscular & Electrodiagnostic Medicine (AANEM)

    Based in Rochester, MN, AANEM is the premier nonprofit membership association dedicated to the advancement of neuromuscular (NM), musculoskeletal, and electrodiagnostic (EDX) medicine. The organization and its members work to improve the quality of patient care and advance the science of NM diseases and EDX medicine by serving physicians and allied health professionals who care for those with muscle and nerve disorders. For more information about AANEM, visit aanem.org or Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram, and YouTube.

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    American Association of Neuromuscular and Electrodiagnostic Medicine (AANEM)

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  • Michigan Ross Professor Yesim Orhun Explores Information Preference and Avoidance in New Research

    Michigan Ross Professor Yesim Orhun Explores Information Preference and Avoidance in New Research

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    Newswise — In her recently published research, Yesim Orhun, associate professor of marketing and Michael R. and Mary Kay Hallman Fellow, explores unique insights into what information individuals seek when making important decisions and how policymakers, medical professionals, and business leaders should communicate anxiety-provoking news.  

    Recently published in the American Economic Review, “Intrinsic Information Preferences and Skewness” was co-authored by Orhun and two collaborators – Yusufcan Masatiloglu from the University of Maryland and Collin Raymond from Cornell University.

    Orhun’s research extends precursory research that documents information avoidance. Previous studies have shown that individuals avoid obtaining information in some contexts, even when information can be useful for making better decisions. Information avoidance generally arises in anxiety-provoking situations where the information can be good or bad. For example, in deciding to take a test that will determine whether one will develop a debilitating disease later in life. To protect themselves against the emotional blow of getting bad news, people may choose to remain in the dark instead. Orhun and her collaborators tested the implications of these theories with a focus on the kinds of information people prefer.

    The team conducted experiments on informational preferences in medical testing, intelligence testing, and lotteries. First, they tested a new kind of preference — a preference for skewness. Positively skewed information sources present bad news frequently but with low precision. When they deliver good news, which happens infrequently, you can count on it being generally accurate. Negatively skewed information sources present good news frequently but with low precision, and when they deliver bad news, it’s with higher certainty. Their findings showed that when given the choice, people overwhelmingly prefer positively skewed information sources and often avoid negatively skewed information sources.

    “When we started this project, I expected the majority of people to prefer the negatively skewed information sources over the positively skewed ones because I do. I do not like to get my hopes up high only to get disappointed by reality later. In fact, much of the early discussions about this project related to medical tests I was willing to endure as an expectant mom and my inability to fathom why my husband would not share the same informational preferences. The data settled the debate, which showed that I am in the minority,” said Orhun.

    The team then focused on individuals who rejected obtaining precise information that perfectly predicted the outcome. They found that some information-avoidant individuals will agree to receive positively skewed information. “The most important insight from our paper is that more precise information does not always mean more informed decision-making. People manage their emotions about anxiety-provoking events in the future by choosing the beliefs they want to carry, which is partially managed by which information sources they want to expose themselves to,” said Orhun.

    On avenues for future research, Orhun said, “Our findings raise two fundamental questions for me. First, would people pick different information sources if they had better coping mechanisms for dealing with the emotional impact of reality, such as more social support? Secondly, how should we think about the welfare implications of information? We care about one’s emotional well-being and physical and economic well-being. Information generally leads to better decision-making. Should we force information onto people when they want to avoid it? I think this is where knowing that positively skewed information may increase information uptake really comes in handy.”

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    University of Michigan Ross School of Business

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  • Toledo Is Hot for Housing. Plus, 2 Affordable Regions.

    Toledo Is Hot for Housing. Plus, 2 Affordable Regions.

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    The housing market’s stagnation this year is projected to carry over into 2024. But a forecast published today by Realtor.com identifies metro areas that are poised to see both rising prices and sales next year, with Toledo, Ohio, leading the way.

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  • Oxford experts say 1.5°C target still achievable with drastic action

    Oxford experts say 1.5°C target still achievable with drastic action

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    University of Oxford 

    Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment news release

    22 November 2023

    “Not dead yet” – experts identify interventions that could rescue 1.5°C

     

    Newswise — To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and limit global heating to 1.5°C, global annual emissions will need to drop radically over the coming decades. Today [22 Nov], a new paper from climate economists at the University of Oxford says that this goal could still be within our reach. They identify key “sensitive intervention points” that could unlock significant progress towards the Paris Agreement with the least risk and highest impact. These include:

    • Investing in clean energy technologies with consistent cost declines
    • Enacting central bank policies to reduce the value of polluting assets
    • Improving climate-related financial risk disclosure.

    ‘This is not to suggest that reaching the Paris goals will be straightforward, or easy, but like Achilles’ heel, our research points to the areas that could have an outsized impact,’ says lead author Dr Penny Mealy, associate at the Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford.

    ‘We need climate policies which are pragmatic and practical, designed with an understanding of where the economy and technologies are capable of quickly transforming our economies for the better. These are those policy areas. This is how we design policy for 1.5°C,’ affirms co-author Dr Pete Barbrook-Johnson of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.

    The research also highlights the areas where interventions will be more difficult and less impactful, including nuclear fission, which would be slow to roll out and could have unintended consequences; and carbon capture and storage, which presents both high barriers and risks.

    To reach their conclusions, the authors devised a new framework for identifying sensitive intervention points, or SIPs, that have the characteristics necessary to radically decarbonize our global economy.

    SIPs include critical tipping points – like renewable energy becoming cheaper than coal; critical points in networks – like powerful political figures or important technologies, and critical points in time or “windows of opportunity” that might prime the existing systems for change, such as the Covid-19 pandemic. These intervention points must be assessed by the ease with which they can be implemented, their impact potential, and the potential for creating risks. The authors stress that, while the framework is highly applicable to climate change, it could also be applied to solving other economic and social problems.

    The ratings provided for each SIP intervention were applied subjectively based on discussions with experts, literature research, and modelling. The framework can and should be applied regularly to reassess priorities as new data and insights become available, the authors say.

    Co-author Dr Matt Ives, comments, ‘1.5°C is not dead yet, but targeted and speedy interventions that can bring about the non-linear change necessary to keep it alive. As COP28 nears, our research highlights key sensitive intervention points we can prioritise to help turn the tide, while providing a valuable framework for policymakers.’

    Sensitive intervention points: a strategic approach to climate action is published today, 22nd November, in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy.

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    University of Oxford

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  • Home Prices Could Come Down. What It Would Take for an Ugly Slide.

    Home Prices Could Come Down. What It Would Take for an Ugly Slide.

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    Nov 12, 2023, 1:00 am EST

    Home prices keep going up, defying mortgage rates at 23-year highs and a housing market that hasn’t been this unaffordable since the 1980s. Everything looks steady on the surface but prolonged national U.S. home price declines could be around the corner for the first time in more than a decade, according to one housing expert.

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  • Supermom In Training: 5 Places to go in November

    Supermom In Training: 5 Places to go in November

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    On an episode of Suburban Parents Talk, we discussed things to do in November. There’s just something usually dreary about this month – it’s sandwiched between Halloween and the holidays, the weather is unpredictable, it feels too late to do fall stuff but too early to do Christmasey stuff. It made me think of some easy, fun things to do during this blah-ish month – here are 5 places to go in November.

    Markets. We love fruit and veggie markets. We live on the South Shore where there are a lot of cute little one-off shops in farming areas, but we also love Atwater and Jean-Talon markets. It’s a great opportunity to pick up fresh, delicious produce and homemade goods, plus it’s always wonderful to support local too.

    Mall walking. We hit Promenades Saint-Bruno this week and all the holiday decorations are up, sales are happening, but there aren’t any crowds (yet). Take advantage of this quieter shopping time to wander the mall, get an ice cream or a cappucino, and maybe even get a headstart on holiday shopping.

    Hikes. November always has its random warmer days, so soak them in by going on a nice family stroll. There are lots of parks, both big and small, to explore. Seek out a new one you’ve never been to: Beaver Lake, Lakeshore, Ste. Anne de Bellevue, Mont Saint-Hilaire, etc.

    Last picking of the season. Yep- there’s still fresh produce out there to be picked and enjoyed. So, don’t let them spoil – get your hands on the last of the apples, pumpkins, squash, and cauliflower. 

    Library. Reading is a great way to pass the time when it’s cold and blustery outside, and what better time to get back into the habit than now? Frequent your local library and keep a rotating collection of great titles at-hand. 

    A full-time work-from-home mom, Jennifer Cox (our “Supermom in Training”) loves dabbling in healthy cooking, craft projects, family outings, and more, sharing with readers everything she knows about being an (almost) superhero mommy.

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  • Optimize office environments for work efficiency and worker health

    Optimize office environments for work efficiency and worker health

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    Newswise — The quality of the office environment significantly affects work efficiency and worker health. Therefore, creating and maintaining an optimal built environment in the office can be a key step in maximizing a company’s economic growth. Previous research has examined how indoor environmental quality (IEQ), including elements like temperature, air quality, lighting, and noise, impacts work efficiency and worker health. However, these studies do not tend to focus simultaneously on work efficiency and worker health, nor do they quantify the economic benefits of optimizing office environments.

    In a new study published on 1 September 2023, in Volume 243 of the journal Building and Environment, researchers from Japan investigated how office environmental elements impact work efficiency and worker health, while also analyzing the economic benefits of optimizing these elements. They surveyed 1644 workers in 29 office buildings in Tokyo, collecting data on the built environment through worker questionnaires and physical IEQ measurements. They then compared the perceived work efficiency (reported by workers) in offices to that in an ‘ideal’ office with maximum work efficiency to estimate the economic value provided by the built environment. Similarly, they looked at the extent of presenteeism (working while sick) and compared it to a scenario where workers faced no health-related barriers to work. The study, led by Professor Shun Kawakubo from the Faculty of Engineering and Design at Hosei University, Japan, included colleagues Shiro Arata and Masaki Sugiuchi from Hosei University, and others. 

    The study found that participants perceived their work efficiency to be at an average of approximately 77%. Presenteeism varied, with some participants reporting no symptoms in the last 30 days, while others experiencing symptoms every day. The average decrease in performance due to presenteeism was approximately 34%. 

    The effects of overall office environment elements on perceived work efficiency and presenteeism were examined in the study. A better overall office environment was associated with higher perceived work efficiency among workers. “Workers in offices with lower environmental performance had  low work efficiency, while those in higher-performing offices had high work efficiency. The 16.8-point difference in work efficiency between workers in offices with relatively good and poor environments equates to an annual economic benefit of about 1,039,000 JPY, highlighting the financial advantages of a good work environment,” explains Prof. Kawakubo. Similarly, a better overall office environment was linked to lower performance loss due to presenteeism. Prof. Kawakubo notes, “The better the office environment, the lower the amount of loss due to presenteeism. The difference in annual economic loss due to presenteeism between workers in offices with relatively low environmental performance and workers in offices with relatively high environmental performance was 423,000 JPY.”

    The study also revealed that higher quality elements such as “interior and furnishings,” “overall building sanitation,” “airflow from HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning),” and “meeting space” were associated with higher perceived work efficiency. Elements like “disaster and emergency,” “thermal environment,” “lightning environment,” and “telecommunication networks” were associated with lower economic losses due to presenteeism. The estimated economic benefits related to perceived work efficiency were greater than those associated with presenteeism.

    The study concludes that offices can boost economic benefits, and underscores the global need for enhancing worker efficiency as well as employee health by developing good quality offices. “Today, companies around the world are reaffirming the importance of human capital. We believe that widespread recognition of the fact that investment in the creation of a good office environment is directly linked to maintaining and improving the health of office workers and increasing the productivity of the company as a whole, will contribute to the building of a healthier society,” concludes Prof. Kawakubo.

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    Hosei University

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  • Reshaping Financial Content: Enhancing Consumer Appreciation in Australian Professional Practice

    Reshaping Financial Content: Enhancing Consumer Appreciation in Australian Professional Practice

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    Newswise — These limitations prompted Ben Neilson from the University of Southern Queensland to investigate the impact of these laborious documents on consumer appreciation, focusing on the key pillars of comprehension, value and trust.

    Neilson initially collected data to assess consumer appreciation levels of the current SOA financial content structure. This data was gathered through a combination of qualitative interviews and quantitative analysis.

    With this valuable data in hand, the researcher introduced a reimagined financial content structure that incorporated language improvements, explanatory videos, and hyperlinks. Subsequently, the impact of this new structure on consumer appreciation was evaluated and compared to the existing structure using a combination of thematic analysis, MANOVA and econometric modeling.

    “The findings revealed that the structure of financial content significantly influences consumer appreciation, particularly with respect to clarity, organization and formatting, all of which play pivotal roles in shaping decision-making processes,” shared Neilson. “Notably, our restructured financial content received higher levels of consumer appreciation, suggesting the potential for a shift in Australian professional practice.”

    The study, published in The Journal of Finance and Data Science, provides evidence that may contribute to debates surrounding consumer serviceability, relationship quality, and content structure of SOA documents in the Australian landscape. This may potentially encourage a redesign of SOA content structure.

    ###

    References

    DOI

    10.1016/j.jfds.2023.100103

    Original Source URL

    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfds.2023.100103

    Journal

    The Journal of Finance and Data Science

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    Chinese Academy of Sciences

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  • UAW keeps strike leverage, despite hurdles and Big Three opposition

    UAW keeps strike leverage, despite hurdles and Big Three opposition

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    On Tuesday, the United Automobile Workers expanded its strike to one of General Motor’s most profitable U.S. factories — an assembly plant in Texas.

    Harry Katz, professor of collective bargaining at Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations, says UAW is facing a significant challenge: a large share of U.S. motor vehicle sales produced by workers are not covered by the union. But despite the hurdles, and opposition from the Big Three, UAW maintains strike leverage, according to Katz.

    Katz says:

    “Although the UAW gained the accretion of workers at the new EV battery plants into the national agreements, the deep problem the UAW faces is the large and growing share of U.S. motor vehicle sales produced by workers not covered by UAW contracts (now more than 50%). That includes: the non-union assembly transplants (foreign owned assembly plants operating in the U.S.); the production at non-union Tesla; the sales of imported vehicles (often union but not UAW); and perhaps most importantly the substantial vehicle content produced in non-union ‘independent’ i.e. non-Big Three, U.S. or foreign parts suppliers.

    “It appears that what is currently holding up settlements at the Big Three is the reluctance of the companies, especially GM, to agree to union gains agreed to by one of the other companies. I doubt this resistance will persist as the union is determined to maintain relatively strict pattern bargaining and has the strike leverage to ensure that continues.”

    Cornell University has dedicated television and audio studios available for media interviews.

    -30-

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    Cornell University

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  • Tesla’s Misses on Earnings. CEO Musk Frets About Growth and the Economy.

    Tesla’s Misses on Earnings. CEO Musk Frets About Growth and the Economy.

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    Electric-vehicle giant reported third-quarter results External link on Wednesday evening that missed Wall Street estimates, underscoring that the pain of price cuts isn’t over. Tesla’s travails show that it will be tough going for traditional auto makers trying to build competing EV businesses.

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  • Stocks Are Poised to Rise Monday

    Stocks Are Poised to Rise Monday

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    U.S. stocks are poised to rise on Monday ahead of a week of earnings and economic data releases, including quarterly reports from Tesla, Netflix, and .

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  • AI Researchers Uncover Key Vulnerabilities in Major LLMs

    AI Researchers Uncover Key Vulnerabilities in Major LLMs

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    Newswise — Large Language Models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT and Bard have taken the world by storm this year, with companies investing millions to develop these AI tools, and some leading AI chatbots being valued in the billions.

    These LLMs, which are increasingly used within AI chatbots, scrape the entire Internet of information to learn and to inform answers that they provide to user-specified requests, known as ‘prompts’.

    However, computer scientists from the AI security start-up Mindgard and Lancaster University in the UK have demonstrated that chunks of these LLMs can be copied in less than a week for as little as $50, and the information gained can be used to launch targeted attacks.

    The researchers warn that attackers exploiting these vulnerabilities could reveal private confidential information, bypass guardrails, provide incorrect answers, or stage further targeted attacks.

    Detailed in a new paper to be presented at CAMLIS 2023 (Conference on Applied Machine Learning for Information Security) the researchers show that it is possible to copy important aspects of existing LLMs cheaply, and they demonstrate evidence of vulnerabilities being transferred between different models.

    This attack, termed ‘model leeching’, works by talking to LLMs in such a way – asking it a set of targeted prompts – so that the LLMs elicit insightful information giving away how the model works.

    The research team, which focused their study on ChatGPT-3.5-Turbo, then used this knowledge to create their own copy model, which was 100 times smaller but replicated key aspects of the LLM.

    The researchers were then able to use this model copy as a testing ground to work out how to exploit vulnerabilities in ChatGPT without detection. They were then able to use the knowledge gleaned from their model to attack vulnerabilities in ChatGPT with an 11% increased success rate.

    Dr Peter Garraghan of Lancaster University, CEO of Mindgard, and Principal Investigator on the research, said: “What we discovered is scientifically fascinating, but extremely worrying. This is among the very first works to empirically demonstrate that security vulnerabilities can be successfully transferred between closed source and open source Machine Learning models, which is extremely concerning given how much industry relies on publicly available Machine Learning models hosted in places such as HuggingFace.”

    The researchers say their work highlights that although these powerful digital AI technologies have clear uses, there exist hidden weaknesses, and there may even be common vulnerabilities across models.

    Businesses across industry are currently or preparing to invest billions in creating their own LLMs to undertake a wide range of tasks such as smart assistants. Financial services and large enterprises are adopting these technologies but researchers say that these vulnerabilities should be a major concern for all businesses that are planning to build or use third party LLMs.

    Dr Garraghan said: “While LLM technology is potentially transformative, businesses and scientists alike will have to think very carefully on understanding and measuring the cyber risks associated with adopting and deploying LLMs.”

    The paper will be presented at CAMLIS 2023 in Arlington, Virginia USA which is held on October 19 and 20.

    The paper’s authors are Lewis Birch, William Hackett, Stefan Trawicki, and Neeraj Suri of Lancaster University, and Peter Garraghan of Lancaster University and Mindgard.

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    Lancaster University

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  • RUDN Ecologists Describe Strong Desertification in Northern Algeria

    RUDN Ecologists Describe Strong Desertification in Northern Algeria

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    Newswise — RUDN University ecologists and colleagues from Algeria, Greece, Egypt, and Russia have determined the scale and causes of desertification in northern Algeria. The analysis was carried out using satellite images in different ranges. Over six years, the area of usable land has decreased by 1.5-9 times. The results were published in The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science.

    The loss of the biological function of land is called desertification. The composition of the soil changes, the sand content increases, and the vegetation becomes poorer. Such lands can no longer be cultivated; livestock cannot graze on them. There are several regions on Earth with a high risk of desertification. One of them is North Africa. Remote monitoring using satellite images helps track desertification. However, different soil types may be difficult to distinguish by satellite data if they have high sand content. It is important to interpret the images correctly. RUDN University ecologists and colleagues from Algeria, Greece, Egypt, and Russia determined which satellite data is best suited for determining soil composition.

    “There is a problem with the similarity of reflectivity between different soils with high sand content. These are, for example, sand, loamy sand and clay. Therefore, it is necessary to develop more accurate spectral indicators to distinguish soil structures easily,” said Dmitry Kucher, Ph.D., head of the Scientific Center for Research, Integrated Design and Development of Urban and Agricultural Development of the RUDN University.

    Ecologists conducted the study in the Nemamcha region in northern Algeria. This region has undergone rapid desertification. To trace spatiotemporal changes in the topsoil, RUDN University ecologists used satellite images from 2013 and 2019 and soil samples. Then they calculated the correlation between these data and analyzed the possible causes of desertification.

    It turned out that blue and near-infrared images are best suited for determining the proportion of sand and clay. Using them, RUDN University ecologists built a regression model determing the composition of the soil with sufficient accuracy—the coefficient of determination (an indicator of model quality) reached 89%.

    Changes in soil composition between 2013 and 2019 indicate noticable desertification: the share of land suitable for agriculture in the region fell from 31% in 2013 to 4% in 2019, and the grazing area fell from 21% to 13%. Ecologists also named the main cause of desertification in this area – aeolian processes, that is, wind erosion and the application of sand by the wind. They turn out to be strong, among other things, because of human activity – too intensive cattle breeding and agriculture.

    “We found a dominant role for aeolian processes, which are exacerbated by low topography, overgrazing, climate change, and over-intensive agriculture. We recommend investigating the protective role of dry grasslands and desert shrublands against erosion and restoring degraded lands. We urge legislators to implement remote monitoring strategies and restore vegetation to combat desertification,” said Dmitry Kucher, Ph.D., Head of the Scientific Center for Research, Integrated Design and Development of Urban and Agriculture at RUDN University.

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    Russian Foundation for Basic Research

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  • Digital brands opening physical stores: Advantages & channel sales challenges

    Digital brands opening physical stores: Advantages & channel sales challenges

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    Newswise — Researchers from Erasmus School of Economics at Erasmus University Rotterdam, KU Leuven, Universität zu Lübeck, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, and FoodLabs published a new Journal of Marketing article that investigates the multichannel impact of brand stores by digital-native FMCG brands.

    The study, forthcoming in the Journal of Marketing, is titled “Assessing the Multichannel Impact of Brand Store Entry by a Digital-Native Grocery Brand” and is authored by Michiel Van Crombrugge, Els Breugelmans, Florian Breiner, and Christian W. Scheiner.

    Multichannel retailing has become crucial to the sales strategy of any brand, including digital-native brands that started retailing as online-only. Digital-native brands like Quip in the U.S. and Myprotein in Europe have partnered with independent retailers to offer consumers an in-person retail option. But some brands—especially those in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) category—have opened their own brand stores to create a bigger physical footprint.

    Brand stores are brick-and-mortar stores owned and operated by the manufacturer. They carry only the brand’s products and are designed to sell them profitably in a brand-centric environment. Van Crombrugge explains that “these stores offer physical exposure, which digital-native brands might struggle to attain on supermarket shelves given the steep competition from mass-market brands.” Brand stores increase brand awareness, which in turn can increase sales in the company-owned online channel and independent supermarkets. “Brand stores can also spark distributor interest and prompt supermarkets to distribute more of the brand on their shelves. Since the number of brand stores that a digital-native FMCG brand can open is limited, increasing breadth and depth of supermarket distribution can further drive brand sales,” adds Breugelmans.

    Yet brand stores also entail risks. Sales in this channel may cannibalize sales in the incumbent channels if consumers migrate to the newly opened brand store. If brand stores signal the manufacturer’s encroachment, supermarkets might reduce their distribution of the brand. Finally, opening and operating brand stores is expensive and these substantial operational costs put pressure on profits.

    The Supermarket Effect

    This research uncovers a substantially different impact of brand store entry on own-online channel sales than on sales in independent supermarkets. In areas in the vicinity of brand stores, the brand’s online channel sales decreased, yet its supermarket sales increased. This is because for customers seeking a more elevated consumption experience, brand stores offer an interesting alternative, which causes cannibalization of its own online channel. In supermarkets, on the other hand, buyers are mainly concerned with price and convenience. For them, brand stores offer an opportunity to discover a digital-native brand that otherwise would have remained anonymous between bigger mass-market brands, which in turn causes supermarket sales to increase.

    The research team also discovers that brand stores spark distributor interest and prompt supermarkets to start distributing the brand on their shelves. Indeed, part of the supermarket sales increase that brand stores bring about is driven by brand stores’ positive effect on the number of supermarkets that carry the brand. This increase in distribution breadth is an important component to drive sales since brands cannot open brand stores everywhere.

    “We find that brand stores generate an influx of own brand store sales that more than make up for any online losses. This is not necessarily surprising because their strong local visibility, typically in locations with high foot traffic, and their appeal to customers who lack opportunities or motivations to visit the online channel or supermarket make brand stores an attractive sales channel on their own,” Scheiner says. Despite the cannibalizing impact on their own online channel, brand stores are an effective means to increase a brand’s top-line sales. Digital natives in startup or growth markets that aim to draw investors’ attention can try to improve their valuation through brand stores and the corresponding sales growth.

    However, opening and running brand stores is a capital-intensive operation due to factors such as store rental cost and sales staff wages. Breinder warns that “our analyses show that nearly half of the brand stores under study were not able to turn a profit. Brands therefore need to carefully weigh brand stores’ top-line gains against their high operational expenses to justify the investment financially.”

    These findings offer important insights and caveats to digital-native brands that consider opening brand stores to increase their physical footprint beyond supermarkets. The upside is that brand stores can help digital natives reach potential consumers and gain additional physical exposure that FMCG brands especially require. Yet brand stores are not without risks: they may hurt the brand’s sales in the online channel where the digital native started and further impact brand profitability if the influx of new sales is not great enough to cover those online losses and the brand stores’ own substantial operating costs.

    Full article and author contact information available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/00222429231193371

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    American Marketing Association (AMA)

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