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Tag: Economic policy

  • More thrifting and fewer returns, the early trends that defined shopping this holiday

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    NEW YORK — The shopping rush leading up to Christmas is over and in its place, like every year, another has begun as millions of people hunt for post-holiday deals and get in line to return gifts that didn’t fit, or didn’t hit quite right.

    Holiday spending using cash or cards through Sunday has topped last year’s haul, according to data released this week by Visa’s Consulting & Analytics division and Mastercard SpendingPulse.

    But growing unease over the U.S. economy and higher prices in part due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs have altered the behavior of some Americans. More are hitting thrift stores or other discounters in place of malls, according to data from Placer.ai. The firm tracks people’s movements based on cellphone usage.

    And they’re sticking more closely to shopping lists and doing more research before buying. That may explain why returns so far are down compared with last year, according to data from Adobe Analytics.

    Here are three trends that defined the holiday shopping season so far:

    Americans are still spending on gifts, yet increasingly that shopping is taking place at thrift and discount stores, according to data from Placer.ai.

    That’s likely forcing traditional retailers such as department stores to fight harder for customers, Placer.ai said.

    Clothing and electronics that traditionally dominate holiday sales did have a surge but struggled to grow, according to Placer.ai. Both goods are dominated by imports and thus, vulnerable to tariffs.

    For example, traffic doubled in department stores during the week before Christmas, from Dec. 15 through Sunday, compared with the average shopping week this year. But traffic in the week before Christmas this year fell 13.2% compared with 2024.

    Traffic surged 61% at traditional sellers of only clothing in the week before the holiday compared with the rest of the year. But again, compared with the runup to Christmas last year, sales slid 9%.

    Some of that lost traffic may have migrated to the so-called off-price stores— chains like TJ Maxx. That sector had a sharp seasonal traffic bump of 85.1% and a gain of 1.2% in the week before the holiday.

    But it was thrift stores that were red hot, with traffic jumping nearly 11% in the week before Christmas compared with last year.

    “Whether hunting for a designer deal or uncovering a one-of-a-kind vintage piece, consumers increasingly favored discovery-driven experiences over the standardized assortments of traditional retail,” Shira Petrack, head of content at Placer.ai, said in a blog post Friday.

    In the past it may have seemed gauche to gift your mother a gently used sweater or a pair of pants from a local thrift store, but seemingly not so amid all of the economic uncertainty and rising prices, according to Placer.ai.

    Through the second half of 2025, thrift stores have seen at least a 10% increases in traffic compared with last year. That suggests that environmental concerns as well as economic issues are luring more Americans to second-hand stores, Placer.ai said. Visits to thrift stores generally do not take off during the holidays, yet in the most recent Black Friday weekend, sales jumped 5.5%, Placer.ai. reported.

    In November, as customer traffic in traditional apparel stores fell more than 3%, traffic in thrift stores soared 12.7%, according to Placer.ai.

    The thrift migration has altered the demographics of second-hand stores. The average household income of thrift customers hit $75,000 during October and November of this year, a slight uptick from $74,900 last year, $74,600 in 2023 well above the average income of 74,100 in 2022, based on demographic data from STI:PopStats combined with Placer.ai data.

    U.S. sales at thrift chain Savers Value Village’s rose 10.5% in the three months ended Sept. 27 and the momentum continued through October, store executives said in late October.

    “High household income cohort continues to become a larger portion of our consumer mix,” CEO Mark Walsh told analysts. “It’s trade down for sure, and our younger cohort also continues to grow in numbers. ”

    For the first six weeks of the holiday season, return rates have dipped from the same period a year ago, according to Adobe Analytics.

    That suggests that shoppers are doing more research before adding something to their shopping list, and they’re being more disciplined in sticking to the lists they create, according to Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights.

    “I think it’s very indicative of consumers and how conscientiously they’ve purchased,” Pandya said. “Many of them are being very specific with how they spend their budget.”

    From Nov. 1 to Dec. 12, returns fell 2.5% compared with last year, Adobe reported. In the seven days following Cyber Week — the five shopping days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, returns fell 0.1%.

    From the Nov. 1 through Dec. 12, online sales rose 6% to $187.3 billion, on track to surpass its outlook for the season, Adobe reported.

    Between Dec. 26 to Dec. 31, returns are expected to rise by 25% to 35% compared with returns between Nov. 1 through Dec. 12, Adobe said, and it expects returns to remain elevated through the first two weeks of January, up 8% to 15%.

    This is the first year that Adobe has tracked returns.

    Still, the last week of December sees the greatest concentration of returns: one out of every eight returns in the 2024 holiday season took place between Dec. 26 and Dec 31, a trend expected to persist this year, Adobe said.

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  • Asian shares are mixed after US stocks drift to more records

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    BANGKOK — Asian shares were mixed Thursday in thin holiday trading, with most markets in the region and elsewhere closed for Christmas.

    In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 lost less than 0.1% to 50,317.43. It has gained nearly 30% this year.

    The dollar slipped to 155.70 Japanese yen from 155.94 yen. The euro was unchanged at $1.1780.

    Markets in mainland China advanced, with the Shanghai Composite index up 0.3%. Hong Kong’s exchange was closed.

    Investors were encouraged by a statement by the People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, promising to ensure adequate money supply to support financing, economic growth and inflation targets. Earlier in the week, the PBOC had opted to keep its key short-term lending rates unchanged.

    Shares fell in Thailand and Indonesia.

    On Wednesday, the S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 6,932.05 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.6% to close at 48,731.16. The Nasdaq composite added 0.2% to 23,613.31

    Trading was extremely light as markets closed early for Christmas Eve and will be closed for Christmas on Thursday. Roughly 1.8 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday, which is roughly a third of the average trading day.

    U.S. markets will reopen for a full day of trading on Friday, though volumes will likely remain light this week with most investors having closed out their positions for the year.

    The S&P 500 is up more than 17% this year, as investors have embraced the deregulatory policies of the Trump administration and been optimistic about the future of artificial intelligence in helping boost profits for not only technology companies but also for Corporate America.

    Much of the focus for investors for the next few weeks will be on where the U.S. economy is heading and where the Federal Reserve will move interest rates. Investors are betting the Fed will hold steady on interest rates at its January meeting.

    The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter, the most rapid expansion in two years, driven by consumers who continue to spend despite strong inflation. There have also been recent reports showing shaky confidence among consumers worried about high prices. The labor market has been slowing and retail sales have weakened.

    The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell last week and remain at historically healthy levels despite some signs that the labor market is weakening.

    U.S. applications for jobless claims for the week ending Dec. 20 fell by 10,000 to 214,000 from the previous week’s 224,000, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. That’s below the 232,000 new applications forecast of analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet.

    Dynavax Technologies soared 38.2% after Sanofi said it was acquiring the California-based vaccine maker in a deal worth $2.2 billion. The French drugmaker will add Dynavax’s hepatitis B vaccines to its portfolio, as well as a shingles vaccine that is still in development.

    Novo Nordisk’s shares rose 1.8% after the weight-loss drug company got approval from U.S. regulators for a pill version of its blockbuster drug Wegovy. However, Novo Nordisk shares are still down almost 40% this year as the company has faced increased competition for weight-loss medications, particularly from Eli Lilly. Shares of Eli Lilly are up 40% this year.

    U.S. crude oil closed at $58.35 a barrel and Brent crude finished at $61.80 a barrel.

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  • Average US long-term mortgage rate ticks down to 6.18% this week

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    WASHINGTON — The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage ticked down modestly this week, remaining in the same narrow range of the past two months.

    The average long-term mortgage rate fell to 6.18% from 6.21% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Wednesday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.85%.

    Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, rose this week. The rate averaged 5.50%, up from 5.47% last week. A year ago it averaged 6%, Freddie Mac said.

    Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy decisions to bond market investors’ expectations for the economy and inflation. They generally follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.

    The 10-year yield was at 4.15% at midday Wednesday, up modestly from last week’s 4.12%.

    The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has been mostly holding steady in recent weeks since Oct. 30 when it dropped to 6.17%, its lowest level in more than a year.

    Mortgage rates began easing in July in anticipation of a series of Fed rate cuts, which began in September and continued this month.

    The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but when it cuts its short-term rate that can signal lower inflation or slower economic growth ahead, which can drive investors to buy U.S. government bonds. That can help lower yields on long-term U.S. Treasurys, which can result in lower mortgage rates.

    Even so, Fed rate cuts don’t always translate into lower mortgage rates.

    Home shoppers who can afford to pay cash or finance at current mortgage rates are in a more favorable position than they were a year ago. Home listings are up sharply from last year, and many sellers have resorted to lowering their initial asking price as homes take longer to sell, according to data from Realtor.com.

    Still, affordability remains a challenge for many aspiring homeowners, especially first-time buyers who don’t have equity from an existing home to put toward a new home purchase. Uncertainty over the economy and job market are also keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines.

    Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes rose in November from the previous month, but slowed compared to a year earlier for the first time since May despite average long-term mortgage rates holding near their low point for the year. Through the first 11 months of this year, home sales are down 0.5% compared to the same period last year.

    Economists generally forecast that the average rate on a 30-year mortgage will remain slightly above 6% next year.

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  • Beverly faces nearly $4 million budget shortfall this spring

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    BEVERLY — The city is facing a nearly $4 million shortfall in funding the fiscal 2027 operating budget.

    That number — $3,921,385, to be exact — was in a report by Beverly’s Financial Forecasting Committee released this month.

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    By Caroline Enos | Staff Writer

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  • Asian markets mostly advance after the S&P 500 hits record high

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    HONG KONG — Asian markets mostly advanced Wednesday after the benchmark S&P 500 closed at another record high following a report that the U.S. economy grew at an unexpectedly strong 4.3% annual rate in July to September.

    The U.S. government’s first estimate of growth for the third quarter showed inflation remained high, while a separate report said consumer confidence faded further in December. The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.8% annual pace in April-June.

    Trading in Asia was thin, with many global markets due to be closed Thursday for Christmas. Markets in the U.S. will end early Wednesday for Christmas Eve and stay closed for Christmas.

    Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 was unchanged at 50,411.10 and South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.1% to 4,113.83.

    In Chinese markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.2% to 25,818.93. The Shanghai Composite index edged 0.2% higher, to 3,929.25.

    In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped nearly 0.4% to 8,762.70.

    Markets in Hong Kong and Australia closed early due to Christmas Eve.

    Taiwan’s Taiex picked up less than 0.1% while the Sensex in India gained 0.1%.

    Gold and silver extended their rally after hitting record highs this week driven by heightened geopolitical tensions. The price of gold rose 0.4% early Wednesday to $4,525.50 per ounce, adding to gains of about 70% for the year. Silver rose 1.8%.

    U.S. futures edged lower early Wednesday.

    On Tuesday, big gains for tech stocks pushed the S&P 500 up 0.5%, even though most stocks in the index fell. It closed at 6,909.79. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.2% to 48,442.41, while the Nasdaq composite rose 0.6% to 23,561.84.

    Nvidia advanced 3% and Google’s parent company, Alphabet, edged up 1.5%.

    Novo Nordisk jumped 7.3%, after U.S. regulators approved a pill version of the weight-loss drug Wegovy, the first daily oral medication to treat obesity.

    The government’s update on the economy showed inflation hovering higher than the central bank prefers. The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge — called the personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE — climbed to a 2.8% annual pace last quarter, up from 2.1% in the second quarter.

    On Wednesday, the Labor Department will release its weekly data on applications for jobless benefits, which stands as a proxy for U.S. layoffs.

    Investors are betting the Fed will hold steady on interest rates at its January meeting. Recent reports show high inflation and shaky confidence among consumers worried about high prices. The labor market has been slowing and retail sales have weakened.

    In other dealings early Wednesday, the dollar continued to fall against the Japanese yen, after officials said they could intervene with excessive moves in the yen. The dollar was trading Wednesday at 155.96 yen, down from 156.17 yen.

    The euro slipped to $1.1793 from $1.1796.

    Oil prices edged higher as traders kept an eye on risks of supply disruptions in Venezuela and Russia.

    U.S. benchmark crude oil added 7 cents to $58.45 per barrel. Brent crude edged 3 cents higher, to $61.90 per barrel.

    ___

    AP Business Writer Damian J. Troise contributed to this story.

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  • Consumer confidence slides in December to lowest level since US tariffs rolled out

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    WASHINGTON — Consumers confidence in the economy was shaken in December as Americans grow anxious about high prices and the impact of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs.

    The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 3.8 points to 89.1 in December from November’s upwardly revised reading of 92.9. That is close to the 85.7 reading from April, when Trump rolled out his import taxes on U.S. trading partners.

    A measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market remained stable at 70.7, but still well below 80, the marker that can signal a recession ahead. It was the 11th consecutive month that reading has come in under 80.

    Consumers’ assessments of their current economic situation tumbled 9.5 points to 116.8.

    Write-in responses to the survey showed that prices and inflation remained consumers’ biggest concern, along with tariffs, despite repeated claims by President Trump that inflation is a hoax.

    Perceptions of the job market also declined this month.

    The conference board’s survey reported that 26.7% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 28.2% in November. Also, 20.8% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” up from 20.1% last month.

    Last week, the government reported that the U.S. economy gained a healthy 64,000 jobs in November but lost 105,000 in October. Notably, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% last month, the highest since 2021.

    The country’s labor market has been stuck in a “low hire, low fire” state, economists say, as businesses stand pat due to uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs and the lingering effects of elevated interest rates. Since March, job creation has fallen to an average 35,000 a month, compared to 71,000 in the year ended in March. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said recently that he suspects those numbers will be revised even lower.

    Despite the broad pessimism, the proportion of those surveyed who think a recession in the next year is is unlikely grew.

    The December survey showed that respondents’ views of their family’s current financial situation sank into negative territory for the first time in close to four years. On the flip side, expectations about their future financial situation were the most positive since January.

    Also Tuesday, the government reported that the economy expanded at a 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter, though economists expect a much more sluggish fourth quarter.

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  • A look at the experts racing to decode Trump’s tariff rules

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    NEW YORK — After a half-century immersed in the world of trade, customs broker Amy Magnus thought she’d seen it all, navigating mountains of regulations and all sorts of logistical hurdles to import everything from lumber and bananas to circus animals and Egyptian mummies.

    Then came 2025.

    Tariffs were imposed in ways she’d never seen. New rules left her wondering what they really meant. Federal workers, always a reliable backstop, grew more elusive.

    “2025 has changed the trade system,” says Magnus. “It wasn’t perfect before, but it was a functioning system. Now, it is a lot more chaotic and troubling.”

    Once hidden cogs in the international trade machine, customs brokers are getting a rare spotlight as President Donald Trump reinvents America’s commercial ties with the world. If this breathless year of tariffs amounts to a trade war, customs brokers are its front lines.

    Few Americans have been exposed as exhaustively to every fluctuation of trade policy as the customs broker. They were there in the opening days of Trump’s second term, when tariffs were announced on Canada and Mexico, and two days later, when those same levies were paused. They were there through every rule on imports of steel and seafood, on cars and copper, on polysilicon and pharmaceuticals, and on and on. For every tariff, for every carve-out, for every order, brokers have been left to translate policy into reality, line by line and code by code, in a year when it seemed every passing week brought change.

    “We were used to decades of a certain way of processing, and from January to now, that universe has been turned kind of upside-down on us,” says Al Raffa, a customs broker in Elizabeth, New Jersey, who helps shepherd containerloads of cargo into the U.S. packed to the brim with everything from rounds of brie to boxes of chocolate.

    Each arrival of products imported to the country requires filings with U.S. Customs and Border Protection and often, other agencies. Importers often turn to brokers to handle the regulatory legwork and, with a spate of new trade rules unleashed by the Trump administration, they’ve seen their demand grow alongside their workloads.

    Many shipments that entered duty free now are tariffed. Other imports that had minimal levies that might cost a company a few hundred dollars have had their bills balloon to thousands. For Raffa and his crew, the ever-expanding list of tariffs means a given product could be subjected to taxes under multiple separate tariff lines.

    “That one line item of cheese that previously was just one tariff, now it could be two, three, in some cases five tariff numbers,” says 53-year-old Raffa, who has had jobs in trade since he was a teenager and who has a button emblazoned with “Make Trade Boring Again.”

    Government regulations have always been a reality for brokers, and the very reason for their existence. When thick tomes of trade rules changed in the past, though, they typically were issued long ahead of their effective dates, with periods for comment and review, each word of policy crafted in an attempt to project clarity and definition.

    With Trump, word of a major change in trade rules might come in a Truth Social post or an oversized chart clutched by the president in a Rose Garden appearance.

    “You’d be remiss not to be looking at the White House website on a daily basis, multiple times a day, just to see what executive order is going to be announced,” Raffa says.

    Each announcement sends brokerage firms into a scramble to attempt to dissect the rules, update their systems to reflect them and alert their customers who may have shipments en route and for whom any shift in tariffs could mean a major hit to their bottom line.

    JD Gonzalez, a third-generation customs broker in Laredo, Texas, and president of the National Customs Brokers and Forwarders Association of America, says the volume and speed of changes have been challenging enough. But the wording of White House orders has often left more unanswered questions than brokers are accustomed to.

    “The order is kind of vague sometimes, the guidance that’s being provided is sometimes murky, and we’re trying to make the determination,” 62-year-old Gonzalez says.

    Gonzalez rattles off 10-digit tariff codes for alcohol and doors and recites the complicated web of rules that determine the duties on a chair with a frame made of steel produced in the U.S. but processed in Mexico. As brokers’ work has grown tougher, he says some of their firms have begun charging customers more for their services because each item they’re responsible for tracking on a bill of lading takes longer.

    “You double the time,” he says.

    Brokers can’t help but see the imprints of their work everywhere they go. Gonzalez looks at a T-shirt tag and thinks of what a broker did to get it into the country. Magnus sees Belgian chocolate or Chinese silk and is awed, despite all the things that could have kept something from landing on a store shelf, that it still arrived. Raffa walks through the supermarket, picks up a can of artichoke hearts, and considers every possible regulation that might apply to secure its import into the country.

    It has been heartening for brokers, who existed in the gray arcana of hidden bureaucracy unseen by most Americans, to now earn a bit more recognition.

    “It was maybe taken for granted how that wonderful piece of gourmet cheese got on the shelf, or that Gucci bag,” says Raffa. “Up until this year, people were clueless what I did.”

    Magnus, who is in her 70s and based on Marco Island, Florida, spent 18 years at U.S. Customs before starting at a brokerage in 1992. She came to find comfort in the precision of rules governing every import she cleared the way for, from crude oil to diamonds.

    “We don’t like to have any doubt, we don’t like to leave anything up to interpretation,” she says. “When we ourselves are struggling, trying to interpret and understand the meaning of some of these things, it is a very unsettling place to be.”

    It’s not just the White House orders that have complicated her work.

    The Department of Government Efficiency cost-cutting blitz under billionaire Elon Musk led to layoffs and retirements of trusted government workers that brokers turn to for guidance. A shutdown slowed operations at ports. And fear of being out of step with the administration has some federal employees cautious about decoding trade orders, making answers on interpretation of tariff rules sometimes tough to come by.

    Magnus was befuddled by moves that seemed at odds with everything she knew of trade policy. Canada as adversary? Switzerland subjected to 39% tariffs? It defied how she had come to see the choreography of cargo and what it says about the world.

    “It’s like an incredible ballet to be able to trade with all these countries all over the world,” she says. “In my own mind, I always felt that as long as we were trading and we were friendly with each other, we were reducing the chance of war and killing each other.”

    Work has been so hectic this year that Magnus hasn’t managed to take a vacation. Weekends have so frequently been upended by Friday afternoon edicts announcing a tariff is going into effect or being taken away that it has become an inside joke with colleagues.

    “It’s Friday afternoon,” she says. “Is everybody watching?”

    A couple hours after Magnus repeats this, the next White House order is posted, undoing a slew of tariffs on agricultural products and sending brokers into another scurry.

    ___

    Matt Sedensky can be reached at msedensky@ap.org and https://x.com/sedensky

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  • What to know about the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike

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    The Bank of Japan raised its key policy rate to a 30-year high on Friday to help curb inflation, as widely expected, and financial markets took the move in stride.

    The 0.25 percentage point hike took the BOJ’s benchmark short-term rate to 0.75%, its highest level since September 1995. It will raise costs for mortgages and other loans, but also boost yields on savings deposits.

    “It is highly likely that wages and prices will continue to rise moderately,” BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda told reporters. “Risks to the economy have diminished, but we must remain vigilant.”

    Inflation has long remained above the BOJ’s target of about 2%. It was 3% in November, excluding volatile fresh food costs.

    The 0.75% rate is still low by most standards, but the BOJ has kept that rate near or below zero for years, trying to pull the economy out of a deflationary funk. Since the pandemic, most other central banks, like the U.S. Federal Reserve, have raised rates to counter spiking inflation and then begun cutting them to help their slowing economies recover momentum.

    Japan’s own economy contracted at a 2.3% annual rate in the last quarter, but improved business sentiment and price pressures have led the BOJ to relent and raise rates. Here are some things to know about its decision.

    Since Japan’s economic bubble burst in the early 1990s, the central bank has kept borrowing costs low to encourage more spending by businesses and consumers.

    Lower interest rates have also helped the central bank manage the country’s massive national debt, which amounts to nearly triple the size of the economy.

    As Japan’s population has aged and begun declining, its economy has slowed and that led to deflation, or falling prices due to weak demand. Even with cheap credit, investment has lagged, stunting economic growth.

    In early 2013, the central bank launched what was dubbed a “big bazooka” of monetary easing, cutting interest rates and purchasing government bonds and other securities to help channel more money into the economy. When the COVID-19 pandemic struck, the benchmark interest rate was at minus 0.1%. The BOJ only began raising it in 2024, the first hike in 17 years, after inflation stabilized above its target of about 2%.

    The Japanese yen has weakened against the U.S. dollar and many other major currencies. So Japanese consumers and companies pay more now for imported food, fuel and other items needed to keep the world’s fourth largest economy running.

    The strong appetite for investing in dollar-denominated shares of companies linked to the artificial intelligence boom has also pulled money out of the yen and into dollars.

    So inflation has risen faster than wages, squeezing household budgets and raising costs for businesses.

    Higher interest rates will raise the value of the yen against the dollar, likely drawing investment into Japan seeking higher yen-denominated yields. That could push the yen higher, given that the BOJ has signaled it expects to continue raising rates.

    “The BOJ’s stance towards rate hikes reflects the fact that inflation is becoming entrenched,” Kei Fujimoto, a senior economist at SuMi Trust, said in a commentary. “If drivers such as a further depreciation of the yen accelerate inflation going forward, it is possible that the pace of rate hikes will also increase accordingly.”

    The planned rate hike was reported by Japanese media ahead of time, giving investors a head start on adjusting their portfolios.

    Initially, the yen weakened after Friday’s rate hike, as the dollar rose to 157 yen, nearly twice its level in 2012 and near its highest level this year.

    Still, even small changes in interest rates can have a big impact. Analysts have forecast that higher rates in Japan may undermine an investment strategy known as the “carry trade.” That involves investors borrowing cheaply in yen and then using that money to invest in higher paying assets elsewhere.

    Carry trades are lucrative when stocks and other investments are climbing, but losses can snowball if many traders face pressure to sell stocks or other assets all at once.

    Higher rates in Japan may also crimp demand for other assets, including cryptocurrencies. Last week, expectations about the rate hike caused the price of bitcoin, for example, to drop below $86,000. It had bolted to record highs near $125,000 in early October. Bitcoin was trading at about $88,000 early Friday.

    Judging the timing and scale of changes to interest rates and other monetary policies is the biggest challenge for central banks, given the time it takes for such moves to ripple throughout the real economy and financial markets.

    Like the Federal Reserve, Japan’s central bank struggles to balance the need to boost business activity and create jobs with the imperative of containing inflation.

    The BOJ held off on raising rates earlier given uncertainties over how U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs might hit automakers and other exporters. A deal setting U.S. duties on imports from Japan at 15%, down from the earlier plan for a 25% rate, has helped ease those concerns.

    Ueda, the BOJ governor, noted that with inflation at about 3%, real interest rates remain in negative territory.

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  • The Bank of England cuts its key interest rate from 4% to 3.75%

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    LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday cut its key interest rate for the first time in four months amid signs that the stubbornly high inflation that has plagued British consumers and businesses is beginning to ease.

    Policymakers at Britain’s central bank voted 5-4 to reduce the base rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75% on Thursday, the lowest since February 2023.

    The move came a day after the Office for National Statistics reported that consumer price inflation slowed to 3.2% in the 12 months through November, from 3.6% a month earlier.

    The figure was below the Bank of England’s forecast of 3.4%. That gave policymakers room to cut interest rates in an effort to bolster Britain’s stagnant economy. Statistics released earlier this week showed a weakening jobs market, with the number of job vacancies declining and the unemployment rate rising to 5.1%, the highest since January 2021.

    Even so, the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee was divided on whether to cut interest rates, with four members remaining focused on the fight against inflation, which is still well above the Bank of England’s 2% target.

    British consumer prices are also rising faster than in other parts of Europe and North America. The inflation rate in the 20 European countries that use the euro currency remained at 2.1% in November. The U.S. inflation rate was 3.0% in September, the latest figures released due to the government shutdown.

    Lower interest rates help spur economic growth by reducing borrowing costs, which can lead to increased spending by consumers and boost investment by businesses. But that can also fuel higher prices.

    Central bankers have to weigh those competing forces, trying to prevent inflation from eroding the value of earnings and savings without putting an unnecessary brake on economic growth.

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  • Trump Unsure Whether Impact of Economic Policies Will be Felt in Time for Midterms

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    U.S. President Donald Trump expressed uncertainty about whether Republicans would keep control of the House of Representatives in next year’s midterm elections because some of his economic policies have yet to take full effect, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.

    Trump, in an interview conducted on Friday, told the Journal, “I can’t tell you. I don’t know when all of this money is going to kick in,” when asked about the whether Republicans would lose the House in November.

    The White House did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

    The president has argued that his economic policies, including his imposition of widespread tariffs on imports, are creating jobs, boosting the stock market and attracting increased investment into the United States.

    After campaigning last year on promises to tame inflation, Trump has in recent weeks alternated between dismissing affordability problems as a hoax, blaming President Joe Biden for them, and promising his economic policies will benefit Americans next year.

    “I think by the time we have to talk about the election, which is in another few months, I think our prices are in good shape,” Trump said in the interview.

    Last month the president rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products in the face of growing angst among American consumers about the high cost of groceries.

    The president did not say whether he would lower tariffs on additional goods, the Journal reported.

    Trump’s overall approval rating edged up to 41 percent in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll but the approval rating on his performance on the cost of living was just 31 percent.

    Democrats have won a string of victories in state and local elections in Virginia, New Jersey and New York City, where growing voter concerns about affordability, including high food prices, were a key topic.

    Officials have said Trump will hit the road in the new year to campaign for Republican candidates and emphasize his economic policy successes. Trump has said his tax cuts and tariffs on foreign goods will put more money in the pockets of American families.

    Reporting by Anusha Shah in Bengaluru; Editing by Christopher Cushing

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  • EU set to lock up Russia’s frozen assets so Hungary and Slovakia can’t veto their use

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    BRUSSELS — The European Union is expected on Friday to lock up Russia’s assets held in Europe until it gives up its war in Ukraine and compensates its neighbor for the heavy damage that it has inflicted for almost four years.

    The move is an important step that would allow EU leaders to work out at a summit next week how to use the tens of billions of euros in Russian Central Bank assets to underwrite a huge loan to help Ukraine meet its financial and military needs over the next two years.

    Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest ally in Europe – accused the European Commission, which prepared the decision, “of systematically raping European law.”

    A total of 210 billion euros ($247 billion) in Russian assets are frozen in Europe. The vast majority of the funds — around 193 billion euros ($225 billion) at the end of September — are held in Euroclear, a Belgian financial clearing house.

    The money was frozen under sanctions that the EU imposed on Russia over the war it launched on Feb. 24, 2022, but these sanctions must be renewed every six months, and all 27 member countries must approve them for that to happen.

    Hungary and Slovakia oppose providing more support to Ukraine.

    Friday’s expected decision, which is based on EU treaty rules allowing the bloc to protect its economic interests in certain emergency situations, would prevent them from blocking the sanctions rollover and make it easier to use the assets.

    Orbán said on social media that it means that “the rule of law in the European Union comes to an end, and Europe’s leaders are placing themselves above the rules.”

    “The European Commission is systematically raping European law. It is doing this in order to continue the war in Ukraine, a war that clearly isn’t winnable,” he wrote. He said that Hungary “will do everything in its power to restore a lawful order.”

    In a letter to European Council President António Costa, who will chair the summit starting on Dec. 18, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said that he would refuse to back any move that “would include covering Ukraine’s military expenses for the coming years.”

    He warned “that the use of frozen Russian assets could directly jeopardize U.S. peace efforts, which directly count on the use of these resources for the reconstruction of Ukraine.”

    But the commission argues that the war has imposed heavy costs by hiking energy prices and stunting economic growth in the EU, which has already provided nearly 200 billion euros ($235 billion) in support to Ukraine.

    ___

    Karel Janicek contributed to this report from Prague.

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  • Federal Reserve cuts key rate, sees healthier economy next year

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate by a quarter-point for the third time in a row Wednesday but signaled that it may leave rates unchanged in the coming months.

    The cut decreased the Fed’s rate to about 3.6%, the lowest it has been in nearly three years. Lower rates from the Fed can bring down borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards over time, though market forces can also affect those rates.

    Chair Jerome Powell suggested at a news conference that after six rate cuts in the past two years, the central bank can step back and see how hiring and inflation develop. In a set of quarterly economic projections, Fed officials signaled they expect to lower rates just once next year.

    Fed officials “will carefully evaluate the incoming data,” Powell said, adding that the Fed is “well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves.”

    The chair also said that the Fed’s key rate was close to a level that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy, a significant shift from earlier this year, when he described the rate as high enough to slow the economy and quell inflation. With rates closer to a more neutral level, the bar for further rate cuts is likely higher that it was this fall.

    “We believe the labor market will have to noticeably weaken to warrant another rate cut soon,” Ryan Sweet, global chief economist at Oxford Economics, said.

    Three Fed officials dissented from the move, the most dissents in six years and a sign of deep divisions on a committee that traditionally works by consensus. Two officials voted to keep the Fed’s rate unchanged: Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Fed, and Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed. Stephen Miran, whom Trump appointed in September, voted for a half point cut.

    December’s meeting could usher in a more contentious period for the Fed. Officials are split between those who support reducing rates to bolster hiring and those who’d prefer to keep rates unchanged because inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target. Unless inflation shows clear signs of coming fully under control, or unemployment worsens, those divisions will likely remain.

    “What you see is some people feel we should stop here and we’re in the right place and should wait, and some people think we should cut more next year,” Powell said.

    A stark sign of the Fed’s divisions was the wide range of cuts that the 19 members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee penciled in for 2026. Seven projected no cuts next year, while eight forecast that the central bank would implement two or more reductions. Four supported just one. Only 12 out of 19 members vote on rate decisions.

    President Donald Trump on Wednesday criticized the cut as too small, and said he would have preferred “at least double.” Trump could name a new Fed chair as soon as later this month to replace Powell when his term ends in May. Trump’s new chair is likely to push for sharper rate cuts than many officials will support.

    Stocks jumped in response to the Fed’s move, in part because some Wall Street investors expected Powell to be more forceful in shutting down the possibility of future cuts. The broad S&P 500 stock index rose 0.7% and closed near an all-time high reached in October.

    Powell was also optimistic about the economy’s growth next year, and said that consumer spending remains resilient while companies are still investing in artificial intelligence infrastructure. He also suggested growing worker efficiency could contribute to faster growth without more inflation.

    Still, Powell said the committee reduced borrowing costs out of concern that the job market is even weaker than it appears. While government data shows that the economy has added just 40,000 jobs a month since April, Powell said that figure could be revised lower by as much as 60,000, which would mean employers have actually been shedding an average of 20,000 jobs a month since the spring.

    “It’s a labor market that seems to have significant downside risks,” Powell told reporters. “People care about that. That’s their jobs.”

    The Fed met against the backdrop of elevated inflation that has frustrated many Americans, with prices higher for groceries, rents, and utilities. Consumer prices have jumped 25% in the five years since COVID.

    “We hear loud and clear how people are experiencing really high costs,” Powell said Wednesday. “A lot of that isn’t the current rate of inflation, a lot of that is e mbedded high costs due to higher inflations in 2022-2023.”

    Powell said inflation could move higher early next year, as more companies pass tariff costs to consumers as they reset prices to start the year. Inflation should decline after that, he added, but it’s not guaranteed.

    “We just came off an experience where inflation turned out to be much more persistent than anyone expected,” he said, referring to the spike in 2022. “Is that going to happen now? That’s the risk.”

    The Fed’s policy meeting took place as the Trump administration moves toward picking a new Fed chair to replace Powell when his term finishes in May. Trump’s nominee is likely to push for sharper rate cuts than many officials may support.

    Trump has hinted that he will likely pick Kevin Hassett, his top economic adviser. But on Wednesday, Trump said he would meet with Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor who has also been on the short list to replace Powell.

    Trump added that he wants someone who will lower interest rates. “Our rates should be the lowest rates in the world,” he said.

    A government report last week showed that overall and core prices rose 2.8% in September from a year earlier, according to the Fed’s preferred measure. That is far below the spikes in inflation three years ago but still painful for many households after the big run-up since 2020.

    Adding to the Fed’s challenges, job gains have slowed sharply this year and the unemployment rate has risen for three straight months to 4.4%. While that is still a low rate historically, it is the highest in four years. Layoffs are also muted, so far, as part of what many economists call a “low hire, low fire” job market.

    The Fed typically keeps its key rate elevated to combat inflation, while it often reduces borrowing costs when unemployment worsens to spur more spending and hiring.

    Powell will preside over only three more Fed meetings before he steps down. On Wednesday, he was asked about his legacy.

    “I really want to turn this job over to whoever replaces me with the economy in really good shape,” he said. “I want inflation to be under control, coming back down to 2%, and I want the labor market to be strong.”

    ___

    Associated Press Writers Collin Binkley and Alex Veiga in Los Angeles contributed to this report.

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  • Asian shares are mixed as Oracle’s earnings revive AI worries, hitting technology shares

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    MANILA, Philippines — Asian shares were mixed on Thursday after the U.S. stock market again approached its record high following the Federal Reserve’s cut in its main interest rate.

    U.S. futures and oil prices fell.

    The Fed’s rate cut was widely expected, but comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell encouraged hopes for more cuts in 2026.

    However, some Asian technology companies saw sharp declines after Oracle, a bellwether in the artificial intelligence sector, reported weaker than expected earnings. Its shares sank 11.5% in aftermarket trading. The company’s spending spree in AI has some worried about its cash flow.

    “Frankly, the report was not dramatically bad, but it came to confirm concerns around heavy AI spending, financed by debt, with an unknown timeline for revenue generation,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote said in a commentary.

    In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.9% to 50,148.82, pulled lower by a 7.7% drop in technology and telecoms giant SoftBank Group Corp., a major investor in AI.

    Local shares are under pressure from growing expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its meeting next week.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed earlier gains and shed 0.1% to 25,513.38 after the Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed the Fed’s lead and trimmed borrowing costs to 4.00%, their lowest rate since October 2022. The Shanghai Composite index fell 0.7% to 3,873.32.

    Sentiment was cautious ahead of China’s November credit data. New yuan loans fell sharply in October, missing forecasts and showing weaker consumer demand.

    Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added nearly 0.2% to 8,592.00 after three days of decline, boosted by strength in gold and mining stocks. The country’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in November was unchanged from October at 4.3%, below the expected 4.4%

    In South Korea, the Kospi shed gains in early session, falling 0.6% to 4,110.62. Chip maker SK Hynix fell 3.8% after the country’s main stock exchange issued warnings over its meteoric rise this year.

    Taiwan’s Taiex index closed 1.3% lower, while India’s BSE Sensex rose 0.4%.

    On Wednesday, the S&P 500 climbed 0.7% to 6,886.68 and finished just shy of its all-time high, which was set in October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1% to 48,057.75 and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.3% to 23,654.16.

    Wall Street loves lower interest rates because they can boost the economy and send prices for investments higher, even if they potentially make inflation worse.

    Wednesday’s cut to interest rates did not move markets much by itself. But some investors took heart from comments by Powell, which they said were less forceful about shutting down the possibility of future cuts than they had been anticipating.

    Powell said again on Wednesday that the central bank is in a difficult spot, because the job market is slowing while inflation is facing upward pressure. By trying to fix one of those problems with interest rates, the Fed usually worsens the other in the short term.

    Powell also said for the first time in this rate-cutting campaign that interest rates are back in a place where they’re pushing neither inflation nor the job market higher or lower. That gives the Fed time to hold and reassess what to do next with interest rates as more data comes in on the job market and on inflation.

    On Wall Street, GE Vernova flew 15.6% higher after the energy company raised its forecast for revenue by 2028, doubled its dividend and increased its program to buy back its own stock. Palantir Technologies added 3.3% while Cracker Barrel Old Country Store rose 3.5%.

    In other dealings early Thursday, U.S. benchmark crude oil slid 31 cents to $58.15 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, lost 34 cents to $61.87 per barrel.

    The U.S. dollar rose to 156.04 Japanese yen from 156.02 yen. The euro slipped to $1.1687 from $1.1696.

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  • World shares are mixed in holiday-thinned trading with Wall Street closed for Thanksgiving

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    MANILA, Philippines — World shares were mixed Friday in holiday-thinned trading as tech stocks slipped as a recent rebound driven by hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve lost steam.

    In early European trading, Germany’s DAX shed nearly 0.2% to 23,730.81 as traders awaited inflation data set to be released later in the day.

    Britain’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.2% to 9,708.36 on gains in energy and mining stocks.

    The CAC 40 in France was nearly unchanged at 8,100.87, despite government data showing France’s economy grew 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in July-September, up from 0.3% in the previous quarter.

    While developments related to artificial intelligence have been driving recent ups and downs in world markets, the focus remains on the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. Recent comments by Fed officials have helped revive hopes the central bank will act during its meeting next month.

    “Everyone is sprinting toward the same conclusion: the Fed will deliver holiday cheer,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.

    In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 0.2% higher to 50,253.91, rebounding from losses earlier in the day. Data showed Japan’s housing starts rose 3.2% in October from the same period a year ago, the first annual increase since March. The number defied market expectations of 5.2% decline and reversed a 7.3% drop in September.

    Government data also showed Tokyo’s year-on-year core inflation in November remained at 2.8%, unchanged from October and above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. That reinforces expectations of a gradual shift by the central bank to higher interest rates, although a rate hike is not expected at the Bank of Japan’s December meeting.

    South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.5% to 3,926.59 after the country’s industrial production fell 4% month-on-month in October, more than the 1.1% decline in September. Semiconductor production plunged 26.5% month-on-month, pushing down tech stocks like LG Energy Solutions, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics.

    In Chinese markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 0.3% to 25,858.89. The Shanghai Composite index edged up 0.3% to 3,888.60.

    Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index fell less than 0.1% to 8,614.10, while Taiwan’s Taiex rose 0.3%. India’s BSE Sensex was unchanged.

    On Wednesday, before the trading holiday in the U.S., stocks closed broadly higher on Wall Street. The S&P 500 gaining 0.7% and the Dow up 0.7%. The Nasdaq composite added 0.8%.

    Early Friday, the futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.1%.

    Brent crude, the international standard for pricing, was up 15 cents at $63.02 per barrel.

    The U.S. dollar rose to 156.34 Japanese yen from 156.31 yen. The euro fell to $1.1567 from $1.1596.

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  • World shares are mixed in holiday-thinned trading with Wall Street closed for Thanksgiving

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    MANILA, Philippines — World shares were mixed Friday in holiday-thinned trading as tech stocks slipped as a recent rebound driven by hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve lost steam.

    In early European trading, Germany’s DAX shed nearly 0.2% to 23,730.81 as traders awaited inflation data set to be released later in the day.

    Britain’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.2% to 9,708.36 on gains in energy and mining stocks.

    The CAC 40 in France was nearly unchanged at 8,100.87, despite government data showing France’s economy grew 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in July-September, up from 0.3% in the previous quarter.

    While developments related to artificial intelligence have been driving recent ups and downs in world markets, the focus remains on the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. Recent comments by Fed officials have helped revive hopes the central bank will act during its meeting next month.

    “Everyone is sprinting toward the same conclusion: the Fed will deliver holiday cheer,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.

    In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 0.2% higher to 50,253.91, rebounding from losses earlier in the day. Data showed Japan’s housing starts rose 3.2% in October from the same period a year ago, the first annual increase since March. The number defied market expectations of 5.2% decline and reversed a 7.3% drop in September.

    Government data also showed Tokyo’s year-on-year core inflation in November remained at 2.8%, unchanged from October and above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. That reinforces expectations of a gradual shift by the central bank to higher interest rates, although a rate hike is not expected at the Bank of Japan’s December meeting.

    South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.5% to 3,926.59 after the country’s industrial production fell 4% month-on-month in October, more than the 1.1% decline in September. Semiconductor production plunged 26.5% month-on-month, pushing down tech stocks like LG Energy Solutions, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics.

    In Chinese markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 0.3% to 25,858.89. The Shanghai Composite index edged up 0.3% to 3,888.60.

    Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index fell less than 0.1% to 8,614.10, while Taiwan’s Taiex rose 0.3%. India’s BSE Sensex was unchanged.

    On Wednesday, before the trading holiday in the U.S., stocks closed broadly higher on Wall Street. The S&P 500 gaining 0.7% and the Dow up 0.7%. The Nasdaq composite added 0.8%.

    Early Friday, the futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.1%.

    Brent crude, the international standard for pricing, was up 15 cents at $63.02 per barrel.

    The U.S. dollar rose to 156.34 Japanese yen from 156.31 yen. The euro fell to $1.1567 from $1.1596.

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  • US retailers are about to see if Black Friday benefits from a holiday halo effect

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    NEW YORK — NEW YORK (AP) — Black Friday bargains no longer tempt people to leave Thanksgiving tables for midnight mall runs. Brawls in store aisles over toys and TVs with limited-time discounts are spectacles of holidays past. Online shopping and retailers launching discounts weeks before the turkey feast subdued that kind of fervor.

    But the sales event still has enough enthusiasts to make the day after Thanksgiving the one when U.S. stores get the most shoppers coming in the door. For that reason, Black Friday still rules as the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season.

    This year’s kickoff comes as consumer confidence in the U.S. economy fell this month in the aftermath of the federal government shutdown, weak hiring and stubborn inflation, according to a report The Conference Board issued Tuesday.

    Many retail executives have reported customers becoming more discerning and increasingly focused on deals while at the same time remaining willing to splash out for important occasions like the start of the school year and the winter holidays, creating a halo effect.

    “Consumers have been saying the economy is terrible while continuing to spend for years now, so the outlook is probably better than they are telling us,” Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, said this week of shoppers’ moods heading into Black Friday. “But business surveys also report consumers are being more sensitive to prices and selective in spending.”

    While planning for the holidays in the spring and summer, retail companies were wrestling with the volatility of President Donald Trump ’s wide-ranging tariffs on imported goods. Many accelerated shipments of some merchandise before the tariffs took effect or decided to absorb some of the import tax costs instead of raising prices for customers.

    Market research firm Circana said that 40% of all general merchandise sold in September saw a price increase of at least 5% compared with the first four months of the year.

    Toys, baby products, housewares, and team sports equipment were among the hardest hit categories. For example, 83% of toys sold in September saw an increase of at least 5%, Circana said. Industry group The Toy Association says nearly 80% of the toys sold in the U.S. are made in China, a country the Trump administration hit with especially high tariffs at various points this year.

    Still, analysts and mall executives cited solid momentum heading into Black Friday week. At the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, foot traffic in recent weeks surpassed the numbers from pre-pandemic 2019, said Jill Renslow, the mall’s chief business development and marketing officer.

    “We’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season,” Renslow said. “The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong.”

    The growth in online sales also has been robust so far. From Nov. 1 to Nov. 23, consumers spent $79.7 billion, according to web tracking and analysis platform Adobe Analytics. That represented a gain of 7.5% from a year earlier and was bigger than Adobe’s 5.3% growth forecast for the season.

    Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks spending across all payment methods, predicted a 3.6% increase in holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24. That compares with a 4.1% increase last year.

    “Clearly, there’s uncertainty,” Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer said. “Clearly, consumers feel on edge. But at the moment, it doesn’t seem like it’s changing how they are showing up for this season.”

    According to Adobe Analytics, Thanksgiving Day was the best time to shop online to get the deepest discount on sporting goods. But Black Friday will be the best time to buy TVs, toys and appliances online.

    Cyber Monday, however, should be the best time to buy apparel and computers. Apparel discounts peaked at 12.2% off the suggested manufacturer’s price between Nov. 1 and Nov. 23 but are expected to hit 25% off on Cyber Monday, Adobe said.

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  • US retailers are about to see if Black Friday benefits from a holiday halo effect

    [ad_1]

    NEW YORK — NEW YORK (AP) — Black Friday bargains no longer tempt people to leave Thanksgiving tables for midnight mall runs. Brawls in store aisles over toys and TVs with limited-time discounts are spectacles of holidays past. Online shopping and retailers launching discounts weeks before the turkey feast subdued that kind of fervor.

    But the sales event still has enough enthusiasts to make the day after Thanksgiving the one when U.S. stores get the most shoppers coming in the door. For that reason, Black Friday still rules as the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season.

    This year’s kickoff comes as consumer confidence in the U.S. economy fell this month in the aftermath of the federal government shutdown, weak hiring and stubborn inflation, according to a report The Conference Board issued Tuesday.

    Many retail executives have reported customers becoming more discerning and increasingly focused on deals while at the same time remaining willing to splash out for important occasions like the start of the school year and the winter holidays, creating a halo effect.

    “Consumers have been saying the economy is terrible while continuing to spend for years now, so the outlook is probably better than they are telling us,” Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, said this week of shoppers’ moods heading into Black Friday. “But business surveys also report consumers are being more sensitive to prices and selective in spending.”

    While planning for the holidays in the spring and summer, retail companies were wrestling with the volatility of President Donald Trump ’s wide-ranging tariffs on imported goods. Many accelerated shipments of some merchandise before the tariffs took effect or decided to absorb some of the import tax costs instead of raising prices for customers.

    Market research firm Circana said that 40% of all general merchandise sold in September saw a price increase of at least 5% compared with the first four months of the year.

    Toys, baby products, housewares, and team sports equipment were among the hardest hit categories. For example, 83% of toys sold in September saw an increase of at least 5%, Circana said. Industry group The Toy Association says nearly 80% of the toys sold in the U.S. are made in China, a country the Trump administration hit with especially high tariffs at various points this year.

    Still, analysts and mall executives cited solid momentum heading into Black Friday week. At the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, foot traffic in recent weeks surpassed the numbers from pre-pandemic 2019, said Jill Renslow, the mall’s chief business development and marketing officer.

    “We’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season,” Renslow said. “The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong.”

    The growth in online sales also has been robust so far. From Nov. 1 to Nov. 23, consumers spent $79.7 billion, according to web tracking and analysis platform Adobe Analytics. That represented a gain of 7.5% from a year earlier and was bigger than Adobe’s 5.3% growth forecast for the season.

    Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks spending across all payment methods, predicted a 3.6% increase in holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24. That compares with a 4.1% increase last year.

    “Clearly, there’s uncertainty,” Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer said. “Clearly, consumers feel on edge. But at the moment, it doesn’t seem like it’s changing how they are showing up for this season.”

    According to Adobe Analytics, Thanksgiving Day was the best time to shop online to get the deepest discount on sporting goods. But Black Friday will be the best time to buy TVs, toys and appliances online.

    Cyber Monday, however, should be the best time to buy apparel and computers. Apparel discounts peaked at 12.2% off the suggested manufacturer’s price between Nov. 1 and Nov. 23 but are expected to hit 25% off on Cyber Monday, Adobe said.

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  • World shares are mixed, tracking Wall Street’s winning streak, as US markets close for Thanksgiving

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    MANILA, Philippines — Shares in Europe are mixed following gains in most Asian markets.

    The futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were nearly unchanged ahead of Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

    In early European trading, Germany’s DAX climbed 0.2% to 23,781.53. Britain’s FTSE 100 slid 0.2% to 9,677.14, while the CAC 40 in Paris was down less than 0.1% at 8,096.41.

    Most Asian markets advanced. Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 1.2% to 50,167.10 as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its Dec. 10 meeting.

    The Japanese government reportedly plans to issue 11 trillion yen ($70.5 billion) in new bonds to fund its economic package. Tech-related stocks advanced, with SoftBank Group jumping 3.6% and Kioxia Holdings up 7.9% following a nearly 15% rout the day before.

    In Chinese markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index picked up nearly 0.1% to 25,945.93, while the Shanghai Composite index climbed 0.3% to 3,875.26.

    Gains were tempered by data that showed profits for the first ten months of 2025 at major Chinese industrial firms rose a lackluster 1.9% year-on-year, down from 3.2% growth in the previous period.

    In South Korea, the Kospi added 0.7% to 3,986.91. The Bank of Korea kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5%, supporting financial stability amid a weakened currency and market concerns on rising housing prices.

    Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.1% to 8,617.30 while Taiwan’s tech-heavy Taiex index added 0.5%. India’s BSE Sensex was up 0.3%.

    On Wednesday, U.S. stocks closed broadly higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.7% and the Dow up 0.7%. The Nasdaq composite added 0.8%.

    Stocks have been rallying as comments from Federal Reserve officials have given traders more confidence the central bank will again cut interest rates at its meeting in December. Traders are betting on a nearly 83% probability that the Fed will cut next month, according to data from CME Group.

    Solid gains for technology companies led the rally, though most sectors in the benchmark S&P 500 index finished higher. Gainers also outnumbered decliners by more than 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange.

    U.S. markets have a shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, closing on Thursday and opening for shorter hours on Friday.

    The market’s recent rebound, fueled by investor hopes for another Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, has helped erase most of the major indexes’ losses following a bout of selling earlier this month.

    In other dealings early Thursday, U.S. benchmark crude added 6 cents to $58.71 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, was flat at $62.54 per barrel.

    The U.S. dollar slipped to 156.29 Japanese yen from 156.47. The euro slid to $1.1585 from $1.1595.

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  • Black Friday arrives with solid momentum despite tariffs and economic uncertainty

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    NEW YORK — NEW YORK (AP) — Black Friday may no longer be the retail bacchanalia of years past, when the promise of one-time bargains caused people to leave Thanksgiving tables for malls where some customers got into fistfights over toys or TVs. But the event still has enough enthusiasts to make it the biggest shopping day in the U.S.

    For that reason, the day retains its crown as the official start of the holiday shopping season. This year’s kickoff comes as companies navigate an uncertain economic environment and wrestle with the volatility of President Donald Trump ‘s wide-ranging tariffs on imported goods.

    Many have absorbed some of the costs and pulled back on hiring instead of raising prices for customers. Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy fell this month to the lowest since April — when Trump announced his tariffs — in the aftermath of the government shutdown, weak hiring and stubborn inflation, according to a report The Conference Board issued Tuesday.

    Shoppers nonetheless have remained resilient and willing to spend, at least judging by the solid quarterly sales reports from Walmart, Best Buy and other retailers. But many retail executives also say customers are focusing on deals and have been selective in what they’re buying.

    Aron Boxer, 50, from Greenwich, Connecticut, said he delayed buying a car this year amid worries about tariffs. He said he’ll be looking for deals on toys on Cyber Monday but is also willing to wait to the end for the best discount.

    “The tariffs definitely are not behind me, and I am concerned about it,” the founder of an educational services company and a life coaching service said. “I did consider buying earlier this year, but I feel like some people made some pretty bad business decisions anticipating tariffs to have a bigger impact than they did.”

    Still, analysts and mall executives cited solid momentum heading into Black Friday week.

    “We’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season,” said Jill Renslow, chief business development and marketing officer at the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, which plans to give gift cards and other giveaways to the first 250 customers who show up at 7 a.m. on Friday. “The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong.”

    Mall traffic heading into Black Friday surpassed the numbers from pre-pandemic 2019, Renslow said.

    A forecast from the National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, predicted a healthy increase in holiday sales. The group estimated that shoppers would collectively spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion in November and December, or 3.7% to 4.2% more than last year.

    Retailers rung up $976 billion in holiday sales last year, or a 4.3% increase from 2023, the group said.

    Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks spending across all payment methods including cash, predicted a 3.6% increase in holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24. That compares with a 4.1% increase last year.

    “Clearly, there’s uncertainty,” Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer said. “Clearly, consumers feel on edge. But at the moment, it doesn’t seem like it’s changing how they are showing up for this season.”

    Online sales have been strong so far. From Nov. 1 to Sunday, consumers spent $79.7 billion, according to Adobe Analytics. That represented a gain of 7.5% from a year earlier and was bigger than Adobe’s 5.3% growth forecast for the season.

    Tariffs have played a role in stores’ merchandising and pricing strategies. Many retailers accelerated shipments of some holiday merchandise before the tariffs took effect while also absorbing some of the extra import costs. But stores still have passed on some of the expense for items like toys, which are largely sourced in China.

    Market research firm Circana’s retail tracking service examined various subcategories of general merchandise and found 40% of all general merchandise sold in September saw a price increase of at least 5% compared with the first four months of the year.

    Toys, baby products, housewares, and team sports equipment were among the hardest hit. For example, 83% of toys sold in September saw an increase of at least 5%, Circana said.

    That number was up from 32% in June and will go even higher in coming months, according to Marshal Cohen, the firm’s chief industry advisor.

    Some executives have noticed retailers advertising tamer holiday discounts. Mall of America’s Renslow said deals didn’t show up at the mall as early as she anticipated. But she estimated store tenants had ramped up this week with discounts in the range of 30% to 50%. She thinks they’ll likely go deeper for the weekend.

    Stephen Lebovitz, CEO of CBL Properties, which operates 85 shopping properties, also noted unimpressive holiday discounting.

    “I think one of the benefits of the tariffs or the silver lining is that the inventory levels for the retailers are leaner, and they’ve tried to allow themselves to keep pricing power,” he said.

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  • Black Friday arrives with solid momentum despite tariffs and economic uncertainty

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    NEW YORK — NEW YORK (AP) — Black Friday may no longer be the retail bacchanalia of years past, when the promise of one-time bargains caused people to leave Thanksgiving tables for malls where some customers got into fistfights over toys or TVs. But the event still has enough enthusiasts to make it the biggest shopping day in the U.S.

    For that reason, the day retains its crown as the official start of the holiday shopping season. This year’s kickoff comes as companies navigate an uncertain economic environment and wrestle with the volatility of President Donald Trump ‘s wide-ranging tariffs on imported goods.

    Many have absorbed some of the costs and pulled back on hiring instead of raising prices for customers. Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy fell this month to the lowest since April — when Trump announced his tariffs — in the aftermath of the government shutdown, weak hiring and stubborn inflation, according to a report The Conference Board issued Tuesday.

    Shoppers nonetheless have remained resilient and willing to spend, at least judging by the solid quarterly sales reports from Walmart, Best Buy and other retailers. But many retail executives also say customers are focusing on deals and have been selective in what they’re buying.

    Aron Boxer, 50, from Greenwich, Connecticut, said he delayed buying a car this year amid worries about tariffs. He said he’ll be looking for deals on toys on Cyber Monday but is also willing to wait to the end for the best discount.

    “The tariffs definitely are not behind me, and I am concerned about it,” the founder of an educational services company and a life coaching service said. “I did consider buying earlier this year, but I feel like some people made some pretty bad business decisions anticipating tariffs to have a bigger impact than they did.”

    Still, analysts and mall executives cited solid momentum heading into Black Friday week.

    “We’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season,” said Jill Renslow, chief business development and marketing officer at the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, which plans to give gift cards and other giveaways to the first 250 customers who show up at 7 a.m. on Friday. “The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong.”

    Mall traffic heading into Black Friday surpassed the numbers from pre-pandemic 2019, Renslow said.

    A forecast from the National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, predicted a healthy increase in holiday sales. The group estimated that shoppers would collectively spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion in November and December, or 3.7% to 4.2% more than last year.

    Retailers rung up $976 billion in holiday sales last year, or a 4.3% increase from 2023, the group said.

    Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks spending across all payment methods including cash, predicted a 3.6% increase in holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24. That compares with a 4.1% increase last year.

    “Clearly, there’s uncertainty,” Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer said. “Clearly, consumers feel on edge. But at the moment, it doesn’t seem like it’s changing how they are showing up for this season.”

    Online sales have been strong so far. From Nov. 1 to Sunday, consumers spent $79.7 billion, according to Adobe Analytics. That represented a gain of 7.5% from a year earlier and was bigger than Adobe’s 5.3% growth forecast for the season.

    Tariffs have played a role in stores’ merchandising and pricing strategies. Many retailers accelerated shipments of some holiday merchandise before the tariffs took effect while also absorbing some of the extra import costs. But stores still have passed on some of the expense for items like toys, which are largely sourced in China.

    Market research firm Circana’s retail tracking service examined various subcategories of general merchandise and found 40% of all general merchandise sold in September saw a price increase of at least 5% compared with the first four months of the year.

    Toys, baby products, housewares, and team sports equipment were among the hardest hit. For example, 83% of toys sold in September saw an increase of at least 5%, Circana said.

    That number was up from 32% in June and will go even higher in coming months, according to Marshal Cohen, the firm’s chief industry advisor.

    Some executives have noticed retailers advertising tamer holiday discounts. Mall of America’s Renslow said deals didn’t show up at the mall as early as she anticipated. But she estimated store tenants had ramped up this week with discounts in the range of 30% to 50%. She thinks they’ll likely go deeper for the weekend.

    Stephen Lebovitz, CEO of CBL Properties, which operates 85 shopping properties, also noted unimpressive holiday discounting.

    “I think one of the benefits of the tariffs or the silver lining is that the inventory levels for the retailers are leaner, and they’ve tried to allow themselves to keep pricing power,” he said.

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