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CORRECT: Services sector of U.S. economy remained strong in September
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U.S. stock indexes ended modestly lower on Wednesday, despite briefly turning positive in the final hour of trading, while data showed steady growth in private-sector jobs and in the service sector, indicating more scope for the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates.
On Tuesday, the Dow jumped 825 points, or 2.8%, while the S&P 500 increased 3.1% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 3.3%.
Wall Street stocks finished in the red after three main indexes bounced back from earlier losses in the final hour of trade, following a strong September private employment report in the morning.
Data released Wednesday showed that private-sector payrolls rose by 208,000 in September, indicating steady growth and supporting the view that the Fed has enough scope to keep raising interest rates. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a rise of 200,000.
The report came two days before the closely watched nonfarm payrolls data issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Investors are eying on it for important guidance on the Fed’s policy stance in the November meeting.
Friday’s employment report is expected to show the economy added 275,000 jobs in September, compared with 315,000 new positions added in August, according to a survey polled by Dow Jones.
See: Hiring and job creation seen falling to a 1 1/2-year low in U.S. September jobs report
“That certainly could move the needle,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. “Again, it doesn’t mean that it actually is going to change the market, but it could be the catalyst for short term rally if we get a disappointing jobs report.”
“But keep in mind, that’s just the anticipation of a Fed pivot based on data. But that does not ensure a Fed pivot. And so it could be one of those short-term rallies like the one we saw earlier this week,” Hooper said.
In other data Wednesday, an ISM barometer of U.S. business conditions in the service sector dipped to 56.7% in September but still showed steady growth and rising employment in a sign the economy is still expanding.
The U.S. trade deficit in August fell to $67.4 billion, the lowest level since mid 2021, paving the way for a resumption of growth in gross domestic product in the third quarter.
See: Why investors shouldn’t expect a break from the stock-market whiplash, says this strategist
The S&P 500 had just enjoyed its largest two day percentage gain since April 2020 on Monday and Tuesday, and the best start to a quarter since 1938, according to Dow Jones Market data.
The bounce followed three quarters of declines, the worst such run since 2008, during which time the S&P 500 fell 24.8% to a near two-year trough as investors worried that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes to crush inflation would harm the economy.
Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, believes the volatility in the stocks will continue because markets are getting a very “consistent message” from the Fed.
“Given what has happened over the last five trading sessions alone, we would be basically telling our clients to tighten your seatbelt a little bit because it’s definitely going to continue to be a bumpy ride,” Mulberry told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Wednesday. “If we get a ‘Goldilocks’ (jobs) report, that would mean decent economic activity is going on. That’s good for earnings overall in the market, but it’s not growing to a point where interest rates would have to be ratcheted up another 125 basis points by the end of the year.”
See: The stock market is surging as the U.S. dollar retreats. It’s all about bonds.
One major reason behind the rise early this week was the view that the Fed would pivot away from its aggressive monetary tightening.
Johanna Chua, chief Asia economist at Citi, said that though U.S economic growth remained in better shape than other countries and Fed officials continued to sound hawkish, the market risked being wrongfooted by any signs that interest rates could soon peak.
“Even as the overall fundamental setup has not changed… trimming of bearish risk/bearish rates/bullish USD positions has driven a sharp reversal,” Chua said.
Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said Wednesday that the Federal Reserve needs to keep raising its benchmark interest rate in order to cool inflation that hit a 40-year high earlier this year and has shown little signs of cooling. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak at 4 p.m. Eastern.
Meanwhile, the OPEC+ group said Wednesday that it will reduce its collective crude production levels by 2 million barrels a day starting next month, the biggest cut since the start of the pandemic. Oil futures headed higher with West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery
CL00,
CLX22,
rose $1.24, or 1.4%, to settle at $87.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The S&P 500’s energy sector
SP500.10,
rose 2.1% following the news, up 12.6% over the last three trading days. According to Dow Jones Market Data, it was the best three-day percentage gain since November 2020 when it gained 16.1%. Shares of Schlumberger
SLB,
gained 6.3% at the close, while Exxon Mobil
XOM,
shares advanced 4%.
—Jamie Chisholm contributed reporting
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While September lived up to its reputation as a brutal month for stocks, October tends to be a “bear-market killer,” associated with historically strong returns, especially in midterm election years.
Skeptics, however, are warning investors that negative economic fundamentals could overwhelm seasonal trends as what’s traditionally the roughest period for equities comes to an end.
U.S. stocks ended sharply lower on Friday, posting their worst skid in the first nine months of any year in two decades. The S&P 500
SPX,
recorded a monthly loss of 9.3%, its worst September performance since 2002. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
fell 8.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
on Friday pushed its total monthly loss to 10.5%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Read: Stocks and bonds are ‘discounting for a disaster’ after the worst stretch for investors in 20 years
The indexes had booked modest gains in the first half of the month after investors fully priced in a large interest-rate hike at the FOMC meeting late September as August’s inflation data showed little sign of easing price pressures. However, the central bank’s more-hawkish-than-expected stance caused stocks to give up all those early September gains. The Dow entered its first bear market since March 2020 in the last week of the month, while the benchmark S&P slid to another 2022 low.
See: It’s the worst September for stocks since 2008. What that means for October.
October’s track record may offer some comfort as it has been a turnaround month, or a “bear killer,” according to the data from Stock Trader’s Almanac.
“Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011 (S&P 500 declined 19.4%),” wrote Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, in a note on Thursday. “Seven of these years were midterm bottoms.”
Of course 2022 is also a midterm election year, with congressional elections coming up on Nov. 8.
According to Hirsch, Octobers in the midterm election years are “downright stellar” and usually where the “sweet spot” of the four-year presidential election cycle begins (see chart below).
“The fourth quarter of the midterm years combines with the first and second quarters of the pre-election years for the best three consecutive quarter span for the market, averaging 19.3% for the DJIA and 20.0% for the S&P 500 (since 1949), and an amazing 29.3% for NASDAQ (since 1971),” wrote Hirsch.
Skeptics aren’t convinced the pattern will hold true this October. Ralph Bassett, head of investments at Abrdn, an asset-management firm based in Scotland, said these dynamics could only play out in “more normalized years.”
“This is just such an atypical period for so many reasons,” Bassett told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Thursday. “A lot of mutual funds have their fiscal year-end in October, so there tends to be a lot of buying and selling to manage tax losses. That’s kind of something that we’re going through and you have to be very sensitive to how you manage all of that.”
An old Wall Street adage, “Sell in May and go away,” refers to the market’s historical underperformance during the six-month period from May to October. Stock Trader’s Almanac, which is credited with coining the saying, found investing in stocks from November to April and switching into fixed income the other six months would have “produced reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950.”
Strategists at Stifel, a wealth-management firm, contend the S&P 500, which has fallen more than 23% from its Jan. 3 record finish, is in a bottoming process. They see positive catalysts between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the start of 2023 as Fed policy plus S&P 500 negative seasonality are headwinds that should subside by then.
“Monetary policy works with a six-month lag, and between the [Nov. 2] and [Dec. 14] final two Fed meetings of 2022, we do see subtle movement toward a data-dependent Fed pause which would bullishly allow investors to focus on (improving) inflation data rather than policy,” wrote strategists led by Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist, in a recent note. “This could reinforce positive market seasonality, which is historically strong for the S&P 500 from November to April.”
Seasonal trends, however, aren’t written in stone. Dow Jones Market Data found the S&P 500 recorded positive returns between May and October in the past six years (see chart below).
Anthony Saglimbene, chief markets strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said there are periods in history where October could evoke fear on Wall Street as some large historical market crashes, including those in 1987 and 1929, occurred during the month.
“I think that any years where you’ve had a very difficult year for stocks, seasonality should discount it, because there are some other macro forces [that are] pushing on stocks, and you need to see more clarity on those macro forces that are pushing stocks down,” Saglimbene told MarketWatch on Friday. “Frankly, I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of visibility at least over the next few months.”
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About half of the American public has heard little or nothing about the new COVID-19 bivalent booster, a new survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation has found. The new booster targets the omicron variants that have become dominant around the world.
One in five of those surveyed said they had heard “nothing at all” about the new boosters. Some 17% said they had heard “a lot” about the boosters, while 33% said they had heard “some” about the new shots. About a third said they’d already gotten the new booster or intended to do so as soon as possible.
“Intention is somewhat higher among older adults, one of the groups most at risk for serious complications of a coronavirus infection,” the authors wrote. “Almost half (45%) of adults ages 65 and older say they have gotten the bivalent booster or intend to get it ‘as soon as possible.’”
The news will likely disappoint health experts who cheered the regulatory authorization of the new boosters in August. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted emergency-use authorization to boosters developed by Moderna
MRNA,
and by Pfizer
PFE,
and German partner BioNTech
BNTX,
for use in people aged 12 and older who have had an initial series of a COVID vaccine, including those who have already had one or more booster doses.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is recommending that all adults get one of the bivalent boosters at least two months after completing a primary series of shots. So far, some 7.6 million people in the U.S. have received it, according to the CDC.
From the CDC: Stay Up to Date with COVID-19 Vaccines Including Boosters
Once again, the country’s partisan divide is evident, with 6 in 10 Democrats saying they’ve already had the shot or will get it soon, compared with 1 in 8 Republicans.
“Notably, 20% of Republicans say they will ‘definitely not’ get the new COVID-19 booster dose, while a further 38% of Republicans are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated and therefore not eligible for the new updated COVID-19 booster dose,” the survey authors said.
Also read: A common virus is putting more children in the hospital than in recent years
In the U.S., known cases of COVID are continuing to ease and now stand at their lowest level since late April, although the true tally is likely higher given how many people are testing at home, where data are not being collected.
The daily average for new cases stood at 47,569 on Thursday, according to a New York Times tracker, down 26% from two weeks ago and now at the lowest level since late April. Cases are rising in 14 states and are sharply higher in several. Montana leads the count with a 75% rise in the last two weeks, followed by Washington with a 48% rise. Cases are up by double digits in Rhode Island, New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont and New Jersey.
The daily average for hospitalizations was down 13% to 28,639, while the daily average for deaths was down 11% to 407.
Coronavirus Update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began
Other COVID-19 news you should know about:
• The U.K. is the only G-7 country whose economy is smaller now than before the pandemic, the Guardian reported, citing data released Friday by the Office for National Statistics. The ONS released figures showing that rather than the economy being 0.6% larger than it was in February 2020, a combination of a deeper recession during the pandemic and a weak recovery had left it 0.2% smaller. All the other major economies in the G-7, including France and Italy, recovered strongly enough to be larger than they were in February 2020.
• Taiwan is the latest country to end mandatory COVID quarantines for people arriving from overseas, the Associated Press reported. Officials said that beginning Oct. 13, the previous weeklong quarantine requirement would be replaced with a seven-day self-monitoring period. A rapid antigen test will still be required upon arrival, but people showing no symptoms will be allowed to take public transportation.
• Germany’s health ministry is warning of a rise of COVID cases heading into the fall and is urging older people in particular to get a second booster shot, the AP reported separately. Other European countries such as France, Denmark and the Netherlands are also recording an increase in cases, German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach told reporters in Berlin. “We are clearly at the start of a winter wave,” he said.
• The first Chinese mRNA-based COVID vaccine has received government approval — in Indonesia, the New York Times reported. The shot, developed by Walvax Biotechnology
300142,
Suzhou Abogen Biosciences and the Chinese military, was cleared this week by Indonesia for emergency use. Countries all over the world, including Indonesia, have embraced mRNA vaccines, and they are considered among the most effective vaccines that the world has to offer. But more than two years into the pandemic, they are not yet available in China, which has relied on an increasingly draconian “zero-COVID” approach to keep cases and deaths from the virus low.
• Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church and a supporter of Russia’s war on Ukraine, has tested positive for COVID-19, the church’s press service said on Friday, Reuters reported. The church said Kirill, 75, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, had canceled all his planned trips and events and had “severe symptoms” requiring bed rest and isolation. It said his condition was “satisfactory.”
Here’s what the numbers say:
The global tally of confirmed cases of COVID-19 topped 617.3 million on Friday, while the death toll rose above 6.54 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. leads the world with 96.3 million cases and 1,059,291 fatalities.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s tracker shows that 225.3 million people living in the U.S., equal to 67.9% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots. Just 109.9 million have had a booster, equal to 48.8% of the vaccinated population, and 23.9 million of those who are eligible for a second booster have had one, equal to 36.6% of those who received a first booster.
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Eurozone inflation hit a new record in September and is expected to rise further in the coming months amid higher energy prices, increasing the likelihood of a lengthier and deeper economic contraction at year-end.
The consumer price index–a measure of what consumers pay for goods and services–increased 10.0% in September compared with the same month a year earlier after climbing 9.1% in August, according to preliminary data from Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics agency.
The reading beats the 9.7% consensus forecast from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.
September’s rise in the inflation rate was driven by energy prices, with prices up 40.8% year-on-year in September after a 38.6% increase in August.
There was also an acceleration of food, alcohol and tobacco prices, which rose 11.8% on year compared with a 10.6% rise in August, data from Eurostat showed.
The core consumer price index–which excludes the more volatile categories of food and energy–rose 4.8% on year in September, up from 4.3% in August.
Economists expect eurozone inflation to increase further in the coming months, remaining above double digits. Elevated inflation adds pressure on the European Central Bank, which raised key interest rates by 75 basis points in September and is expected to increase rates again by 75 basis points at its next meeting in October.
Write to Maria Martinez at maria.martinez@wsj.com
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U.S. stocks dropped sharply Friday, with major indexes posting their lowest finishes since 2020 and logging a third straight quarterly decline as investors grew more fearful that aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will drive the economy into a downturn in an attempt to quell inflation.
The drop left the Dow and S&P 500 at their lowest since November 2020, while the Nasdaq posted its lowest close since July 29, 2020. The Dow dropped 8.8% in September, while the S&P 500 tumbled 9.3% and the Nasdaq lost 10.5%.
For the quarter, the Dow dropped 6.7%, the S&P 500 declined 5.3% and the Nasdaq gave up 4.1%.
In keeping with the historical pattern, U.S. stocks suffered during the month of September as an assertive Federal Reserve helped push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, which in turn undermined equity valuations.
See: It’s the worst September for stocks since 2008. What that means for October.
Investors on Friday digested a reading from the personal consumption expenditure inflation index for August, which showed that core consumer prices climbed by 0.6% last month, more than Wall Street’s forecast of 0.5%. The core inflation measure excludes volatile food and energy prices.
See: Cheaper gas holds down inflation, PCE shows, but the cost of everything else is still going up fast
“That means the Fed will remain hell-bent on killing inflation. And the best way to do that is to increase rates, kill the housing market, and get rental costs down. The PCE doesn’t have housing and rents as a big component as the CPI does, so the fact that it is rising is a warning sign,” said Louis Navellier, founder of Navellier & Associates, in emailed comments.
The reading largely confirmed similar data from the consumer-price index, another closely watched inflation barometer, which sent stocks lower earlier this month. Since that report was released just over two weeks ago, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 10%.
Helping to underscore this point, data out of the eurozone showed inflation accelerated at a record pace last month.
See: Eurozone Inflation posts new record high of 10% in September
In other news, investors also heard from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who reiterated that the central bank would keep interest rates elevated to combat inflation, even if it harms the economy.
See: Fed won’t pull back from rate hikes prematurely, Brainard says
Since it will take time for high interest rates to bring inflation down, Brainard said the Fed is “committed to avoiding pulling back prematurely.”
Investors were also keeping an eye on megacap tech stocks. Apple Inc. AAPL fell 3% on Friday after leading markets lower a day earlier following a downgrade by Bank of America.
Need to know: Here’s why investors should start betting on Apple and the stock market now
A final reading on the University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index for September showed consumers’ view of the economy improved somewhat during the month due to falling gas prices, even as their outlook remained broadly pessimistic.
Investors are now facing “what may be one of the most important earning seasons in a very long time, with a major rally in the cards if earnings don’t disappoint, and if the bears are right, lead to a further leg down if earnings disappoint and 4th quarter estimates are cut,” Navellier said.
See: U.S. consumers remain pessimistic about economy even as inflation fears wane
— Steve Goldstein and Barbara Kollmeyer contributed to this article
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