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Tag: Economic growth

  • LI leaders unite to bring Sunrise Wind to finish line | Long Island Business News

    THE BLUEPRINT:

    • Long Island leaders call on BOEM to lift Sunrise Wind lease suspension.

    • Project is 45% complete and expected to power 600,000 homes.

    • Sunrise Wind supports union jobs, economic growth, and clean energy.

    • Court injunction allows construction to continue amid BOEM challenges.

    Long Island leaders gathered in Melville Friday to call on the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) to lift its lease suspension on Sunrise Wind, a project already 45% complete, to secure its economic benefits.

    In a letter to Acting BOEM Director Matthew Giancona, the group emphasized the project’s benefits, including stabilizing energy prices, supporting union jobs and boosting the downstream supply chain. The group stressed the need to advance the project without further delays.

    Sunrise Wind, under construction 30 miles off Montauk, is slated for operation next year and is expected to generate enough electricity to power 600,000 homes. The project has encountered obstacles following a recent BOEM suspension order, which developer Ørsted is challenging in court. A preliminary injunction currently allows construction to continue while the lawsuit proceeds.

    “The LIA urges the federal government to rescind their suspension order immediately, and allow this job-creating project that supports a stable grid capable of accommodating future economic growth to make it to the finish line,” Matt Cohen, Long Island Association president and CEO, said, in a news release.

    “The economic benefits to Long Island and New York are undeniable – and the LIA supports an all-of-the-above energy strategy that incorporates all potential sources into our portfolio so our region can be prosperous,” he added.

    “Sunrise Wind is well on its way to being completed and has already undergone an extensive government approval process, and should continue as planned,” Lawrence Waldman, LIA chairman, said, in the news release. “In addition to the significant job creating and other economic benefits, it helps Long Island and New York integrate another source of energy into our portfolio, which is critical for a reliable and affordable grid.”

    Suffolk County Executive Ed Romaine said in the news release that Long Island leaders “respectfully request that the BOEM adhere to the court’s decision and allow this project to proceed. The Sunrise Project will provide much-needed alternative energy solutions … and has created hundreds of jobs for skilled laborers. We want to see this project move forward.”

    Kyle Strober, executive director of Association for a Better Long Island, said in the news release that “Long Island’s unique geography positions it well to benefit from the tens of millions of dollars in economic activity and thousands of jobs this project represents. As Sunrise Wind moves forward, we must not only recognize its enormous economic and energy benefits but also sustain our support for its construction in a manner that underscores a unified alliance of public-private Long Island leadership.”

    Terri Alessi-Miceli, president and CEO of HIA-LIA, stressed the importance of the project.

    “This critical infrastructure project strengthens Long Island’s energy future while creating good-paying jobs and long-term economic benefits for our region,” she said in the news release. “Sunrise Wind represents a practical step toward diversifying our energy mix and investing in offshore wind in a way that supports reliability, sustainability, and continued growth for Long Island and New York State.”

    Mike Florio, CEO of Long Island Builders Institute, said that projects “like Sunrise Wind are critical to Long Island’s future as we work to diversify our energy mix and invest in practical, reliable offshore wind infrastructure. Affordable and dependable energy is directly tied to housing production and the overall cost of living in our region. If we are serious about building more homes, supporting the workforce, and keeping Long Island competitive, we need energy solutions that are sustainable, scalable, and planned with growth in mind.”

    Marc Herbst, executive director of the Long Island Contractors’ Association (LICA) agreed.

    “This project represents a major opportunity to create good-paying union jobs, strengthen Long Island’s workforce, and deliver long-term economic benefits for our region,” he said in the news release. “Now is the time for Long Island’s business and labor leaders to keep the momentum going and continue advocating for the economic growth, local investment and job creation Sunrise Wind will bring to our communities.”

    John Durso, president of the Long Island Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO, said in the news release that region “cannot afford further delays to critical energy infrastructure.  Lifting the stop work order allows Sunrise Wind to move forward delivering union jobs, strengthening our energy grid, and advancing the kind of real progress Long Island needs.  After repeated attempts to disrupt this project, the court’s ruling is a much-needed win for Long Islanders.”

    Ryan Stanton, executive director of the Long Island Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO, said in the news release that the “court’s decision on Sunrise Wind is a win for Long Island and a win for the rule of law.  This project delivers exactly what Long Island needs: power generation, energy resiliency, and thousands of good-paying union jobs.  It has already proven its economic value, and this court decision reinforces [that critical] energy infrastructure must not be politicized.”

    Matthew Aracich, president of The Building and Construction Trades Council of Nassau & Suffolk Counties, said in the news release that his organization offshore wind development represents “a critical investment in good-paying, union jobs and long-term economic stability for our region. Restarting the region’s projects has immediately put skilled tradespeople back to work, supporting thousands of positions in the construction, and manufacturing jobs that strengthen local supply chains. Labor believes we can grow our economy while protecting our environment, and offshore wind allows us to do both—creating union jobs here at home while advancing clean, reliable energy.”

    Robert Fonti, chairman of the Suffolk County Alliance of Chambers, said in the news release that the project ”represents both an energy investment and an economic opportunity for Long Island. Our small businesses want to see projects that create jobs, support local contractors, and move our region forward responsibly.”


    Adina Genn

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  • ‘Dr. Doom’ Nouriel Roubini breaks with the crowd on the AI bubble, saying the U.S. is headed for a ‘growth recession’ and not a market crash | Fortune

    For nearly two decades, esteemed economist Nouriel Roubini has worn the nickname “Dr. Doom” with honor. He earned it in the mid-2000s for warning of a housing crash that Wall Street dismissed, until he was proven catastrophically right. 

    Since then, the NYU Stern School of Business professor emeritus has become one of the most recognizable bears in global finance, regularly sounding alarms about debt spirals, geopolitical shocks, pandemics, AI disruptions, and what he once called “the mother of all crises.”

    So it’s perhaps surprising, even disorienting, that in the midst of investors teetering on the edge of a bear market, Roubini is breaking with his cohort — including fellow 2008-financial-crisis-prophet Michael Burry — to dismiss their pessimism about the U.S. economy as misplaced.

    In a new essay for the Financial Times, the economist argues that the conventional view – that America’s “Liberation Day” tariffs would trigger stagflation, tank the stock market, kneecap the dollar, and end U.S. exceptionalism — is simply wrong. Instead, he sees something close to the opposite: a short period of cooling growth, followed by a powerful rebound led by technology and capital spending that keeps the U.S. firmly in the top spot.

    “The now common view that the U.S. stock market is in a massive bubble and bound to crash is incorrect over the medium term,” he wrote. On the other hand, what he predicted isn’t necessarily the rosiest. The near-term picture looks like a “growth recession,’ he said, meaning slower, below-potential GDP. It’s not the hard landing or 1970s-style stagflation many have predicted, and it isn’t a bubble popping, but it’s a lopsided economy, as many Wall Street analysts have also noticed.

    Tariffs won’t topple the recovery

    Roubini, who once warned of a “mega-threatened age” – the era where AI, aging populations and global instability threatened our prosperity — now argues the most extreme fears about tariffs and policy missteps haven’t materialized. That’s partly because, he says, this administration is responsive to market reactions. When asset prices slumped immediately after the tariff announcement, the administration “blinked,” softening policy and opening the door to more conventional trade negotiations.

    By next year, he says, growth will reaccelerate. The Fed is undergoing a period of monetary easing, fiscal stimulus is still flowing, and—critically—AI-related capital expenditure continues to surge.

    Roubini’s arguments align closely with two of Wall Street’s top analysts: Torsten Slok from Apollo Global Management and Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley. Slok, known for his “Daily Spark,” combining insightful charts with brevity, argued on November 20 that the economy is “likely to reaccelerate in 2026.” Just days earlier, he had warned of inequality, saying “it is a K-shaped economy for U.S. consumers.” He has also flagged extreme concentration and valuations in the stock market, with the Magnificent 7 running far ahead of the rest of the market. 

    Wilson, chief equity strategist for Morgan Stanley, has been predicting a “rolling recession” for years, arguing that different sectors of the economy shrank at different times, resulting in something that felt like a recession, but unevenly distributed. This changed in April 2022, when a “rolling recovery” set in, he has argued since then, forecasting an economic boom ahead. Wilson has argued for the possibility of a correction in stocks but, like Roubini, does not see a crash as imminent. 

    Tech > tariffs

    The core of Roubini’s argument rests on a simple hierarchy: tariffs and policy noise are temporary, but technological leadership that results in innovation compounding over decades is not.

    “Tech trumps tariffs,” he writes.

    He estimates U.S. potential growth could double from 2% to 4% by the end of the decade, powered by innovation in AI and machine learning, robotics, quantum computing, commercial space, and defense technology. While this agrees with many Wall Street predictions (Goldman Sachs sees real potential growth reaching 2.3% in the early 2030s, for instance), the prediction of 4% blows most others out of the water. 

    However, those industries, Roubini argues, will continue to deliver the “exceptionalism” that has set the U.S. apart for the past 20 years, to the extent to which productivity will boost the economy out double-digits. 

    If potential growth rises, he says, equity returns should, too. When growth averaged only 2% over the last two decades, annual returns still hovered in the double digits. Faster growth means even faster earnings expansion, and valuations that look elevated today may be supported rather than speculative.

    Roubini has been striking a more positive tone for about a year now — in August 2024, while everyone feared a downturn was coming and frustrated that the Fed wouldn’t ease, he calmed market fears again. 

    Debt—and the dollar—look less dangerous than feared

    One of the most persistent fears around AI-driven spending is debt sustainability. But Roubini argues that this math would change if growth rises even modestly.

    The Congressional Budget Office projects debt-to-GDP soaring under 1.6% real growth assumptions. But if growth averages 2.3% or higher, the ratio stabilizes. At 3% or more, it falls, meaning that we could potentially grow ourselves out of debt; an argument President Donald Trump has also used.

    A tech-driven “supply shock”could also push inflation lower over time as production costs drop while productivity booms, meaning higher real rates may not translate into higher nominal yields.Even external liabilities look manageable, he argues, because rising tech investment tends to attract foreign equity inflows, similar to how “emerging-market” economies finance growth during a resource boom.

    Roubini also dismisses the widely discussed decline of the dollar, since he believes that the U.S. will accelerate while Europe stagnates, and thus the dollar will ultimately strengthen. 

    Notably, “Dr. Doom” admitted that the U.S.’s top adversary, China, is at least on par with the U.S. in innovating in the “most important industries of the future,” such as AI and robotics. However, he doesn’t seem too concerned with the AI arms race. 

    “The US economy and markets are best positioned among advanced economies,” Roubini wrote. “They will continue to benefit from the US being the most innovative advanced country.”

    Eva Roytburg, Nick Lichtenberg

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  • German Economy Shows Signs of Revival

    The German economy may be showing signs of a life after more than half a decade of stagnation.

    Europe’s largest economy has suffered a series of recent blows, including a surge in energy costs after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, higher tariffs on its exports to the U.S and fierce competition from China in key sectors such as automobiles.

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    Don Nico Forbes

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  • Moody’s Ratings Upgrades Italy on Expectation of Declining Debt

    Moody’s boosted Italy’s sovereign-credit rating on expectations for a decline in government debt.

    The ratings agency on Friday upgraded Italy’s rating one level to Baa2 from Baa3. The outlook was revised to stable from positive.

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    Kelly Cloonan

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  • The economy survived the government shutdown — but all is not well

    The economy survived the government shutdown but all is not well

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  • Opinion | Maduro Caused the Disaster

    Regarding Quico Toro’s essay “ Another U.S. Attempt to Topple Maduro Would Be a Disaster” (Review, Nov. 8): Venezuela’s economic collapse and migratory crisis began in 2013, at least four years before the U.S. imposed broad U.S. sanctions. From 2013 onward, Venezuela experienced the highest inflation rate in the world and a precipitous decline in gross domestic product, driven directly by the devastating economic policies of Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro, including widespread nationalizations, reckless monetary and fiscal policies and the implementation of universal price and currency controls.

    Mr. Toro neglects the consequences of the Biden administration’s policy of accommodation. Far from improving conditions, diplomatic passivity has allowed the government to dig in its heels, intensifying repression and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

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  • China Registers Worst Investment Decline in Years as Slowdown Continues

    SHANGHAI—Signs of weakness in China’s economy stretched into October, with one measure of investment notching the sharpest slowdown in years.

    The numbers

    Momentum in retail sales and industrial production slowed, while investment and the property market continued to struggle, according to data released Friday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

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    Hannah Miao

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  • China’s Economic Growth Momentum Slowed in October

    China’s economic growth momentum slowed in October, weighed down by a high base from the previous year when Beijing rolled out stimulus measures to support a cooling economy, according to official data released on Friday.

    Industrial production rose 4.9% in October compared to a year earlier, a decline from the 6.5% increase in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

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  • U.K. Economy Grows at Slower Pace Ahead of Budget

    GDP rose 0.1% in the third quarter, compared with 0.3% in the second, amid uncertainty about the government’s budget and the impact of a cyberattack on a major carmaker.

    Don Nico Forbes

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  • China’s Bid for Tech Prowess to Keep Lid on Consumption Boost

    China’s leaders have again pledged to give consumption a bigger role in driving growth, but economists remain unconvinced.

    The emphasis given to technological self-sufficiency and advanced manufacturing has raised doubt over how high consumption is on policymakers’ To Do list.

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  • Bank of Canada Gov. Macklem Tells Lawmakers Rate Policy at ‘Right’ Level

    OTTAWA—Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem told lawmakers Wednesday that central-bank policymakers believe the current rate policy appears appropriate to balance inflation risks while providing the economy with support.

    His opening remarks before the Canadian legislature’s finance committee largely mirrored his comments when announcing a quarter-point cut last week, taking the benchmark interest rate to 2.25%—or 2.75 percentage points lower over a 16-month period.

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    Paul Vieira

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  • Europe’s Role Reversal: The Problem Economies Are Now Further North

    The European debt crisis of the early 2010s created an image of a continent cleaved in two: The fiscally responsible core countries led by Germany versus the spendthrift southern periphery of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain—disdainfully dubbed PIGS.

    Nowadays, there has been a role reversal. Europe’s three biggest economies are stuck in a cycle of weak growth, leading to widening budget deficits. France is the epicenter of this shift and remains mired in a budget and political crisis, while the U.K. is eyeing tax hikes to try to narrow the gap and avoid spooking markets. Famously frugal Germany and the Netherlands are taking on debt, albeit from lower levels.

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    Chelsey Dulaney

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  • BOE to Embrace Uncertainty, and Bernanke’s Guidance, With Communications Revamp

    The central bank place will more emphasis on developments that could upend its expectations and less on forecasts that convey too much certainty about the future.

    Paul Hannon

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  • Bank of Canada Exhausts Tools to Help Tariff-Battered Economy

    OTTAWA—The Bank of Canada signaled it has emptied its toolbox to help an economy hurting from the trade row with the U.S.

    Canada’s central bank cut its main interest rate on Wednesday, to 2.25%, and said the rate is “at about the right level” to keep inflation intact at its 2% target. It’s taking this approach even though its own economic outlook is bleak over the next two years.

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    Paul Vieira

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  • Trump immigration policies would slash workforce estimate by 15.7 million and slow GDP growth by a third over the next decade, study says | Fortune

    The U.S. immigration crackdown will cause net job losses in the millions and will lower the annual rate of economic growth by almost one-third over the next decade, a new study estimates.

    The Trump administration’s policies aimed at legal and illegal immigration would reduce the projected number of workers by 6.8 million by 2028 and 15.7 million by 2035, the National Foundation for American Policy’s study released Friday found. People entering the workforce won’t fully make up for the job losses, leading to a net reduction in the labor force by a projected 4 million workers by 2028 and 11 million in 2035. 

    “With the U.S.-born population aging and growing at a slower rate, immigrants have become an essential part of American labor force growth,” the think tank, which focuses on trade and immigration, said.

    In fact, immigrant workers were responsible for 84.7% of the labor force growth in America between 2019 and 2024, according to the report. 

    The study takes into account many of Trump’s far-reaching immigration policies for those eligible to work in the country, including reducing and suspending refugee admissions, a travel ban on 19 countries, ending Temporary Protected Status, and prohibiting international students from working on Optional Practical Training and STEM OPT after completing their coursework. The analysis does not account for a new policy that requires U.S. companies to shell out $100,000 in one-time fees for new H-1B visas.

    Labor reduction

    Trump’s immigration crackdown is already having an impact on the labor force.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey shows a decline of 1.1 million foreign-born workers since the start of the Trump administration in January through August, according to the report.

    And of the 6.8 million fewer projected workers in the U.S. labor force by 2028, 2.8 million would be due to changes in legal immigration policies, while 4 million would result from policies on illegal immigration, the study said

    At the same time, it doesn’t look as though U.S.-born workers are entering the workforce en masse as foreign-born workers exit, the report said. Instead, the labor force participation rate for U.S.-born workers aged 16 and older has ticked lower to 61.6% in August from 61.7% last year, according to the report.

    Labor economist and senior fellow at NFAP Mark Regets, said in the report it’s “wrong” to assume a decline in immigration helps U.S. workers when job growth slows.

    “Immigrants both create demand for the goods and services produced by U.S.-born workers and work alongside them in ways that increase productivity for both groups,” Regrets said. “While it is just one factor, we shouldn’t be surprised that opportunities for U.S.-born workers are falling at the same time an estimated one million fewer immigrants may be in the labor force.”

    But the White House says there’s a large pool of available U.S.-born workers.

    “Over one in ten young adults in America are neither employed, in higher education, nor pursuing some sort of vocational training.” White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told Fortune in a statement, referencing a July 2024 CNBC article. “There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force, and President Trump’s agenda to create jobs for American workers represents this Administration’s commitment to capitalizing on that untapped potential while delivering on our mandate to enforce our immigration laws.”

    Economic fallout

    Previous reports have warned Trumps’ immigration policies also threaten negative economic consequences.

    In September, the Congressional Budget Office projected 290,000 immigrants will be removed from the country between 2026 and 2029, which may create a labor shortage and drive up inflation.

    And according to the NFAP study, Trump’s immigration policies will lower the projected average annual economic growth rate to 1.3% from 1.8% between fiscal year 2025 to fiscal year 2035. 

    There are also ramifications for the agriculture industry and food production. The Labor Department admitted earlier this month in a filing in the Federal Register that Trump’s immigration crackdown risked a “labor shortage exacerbated by the near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens.”

    That’s not the only sector feeling the talent squeeze.

    The $100,000 one-time fee for workers applying for new H-1B visas is expected to disrupt companies including Amazon, Microsoft and Meta, since they heavily recruit workers under this status. 

    And the policies are projected to have far-ranging effects on most areas of business, including a potential loss of hundreds of thousands of immigrant workers in sectors like information and educational and health services.

    In addition, individuals affected by Trump’s travel ban on 19 different countries represent a significant part of the economy, the American Immigration Council, a nonprofit research organization and advocacy group, has estimated.

    Households led by the recent arrivals from the countries earned $3.2 billion in household income, paid $715.6 million in federal, state and local taxes and held $2.5 billion in spending power, according to AIC.

    “These nationals made important contributions in U.S. industries that are facing labor shortages and rely on foreign-born workers,” like hospitality, construction, retail trade and manufacturing, the report said.

    But the White House said Trump will continue “growing our economy, creating opportunity for American workers, and ensuring all sectors have the workforce they need to be successful.”

    Nan Wu, research director at AIC told Fortune the recent NFAP study may not even fully capture the broader impact of the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement efforts. 

    “Given the unprecedented scale of these actions, it’s difficult to quantify the chilling effect they may have on immigrants who might otherwise choose to move to or remain in the United States,” Wu said. “For instance, international students—who are a critical source of high-skilled talent—may increasingly opt to pursue education or career opportunities in other countries. This shift could significantly disrupt the U.S. talent pipeline, particularly in sectors that rely heavily on STEM expertise and innovation.”

    Nino Paoli

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  • China’s Economy Expands at Slowest Pace in a Year

    SINGAPORE—China said economic momentum decelerated to its slowest pace in a year, putting Beijing on alert in the midst of hardball trade negotiations with the U.S.

    China said its gross domestic product expanded 4.8% in the third quarter of 2025 compared with a year earlier, down from 5.2% growth in the second quarter. Over the first nine months of the year, China’s economy expanded 5.2% from the year-earlier period, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That means that Beijing is largely on track to hit its official target of around 5.0% growth for 2025.

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    [ad_2] Hannah Miao
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  • As Russian Aggression Turns West, Poland Says It’s Ready

    By

    Thomas Grove

    and

    Karolina Jeznach

    | Photography by Maciek Nabrdalik for WSJ

    WARSAW—For more than a decade, Poland has prepared for the worst-case scenario: becoming the front line in a war between Russia and the West.

    With an eye on growing Russian aggression in Europe, Warsaw’s military planners built out the country’s armed forces, turning it last year into the largest European military in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. It ramped up military spending to 4.7% of gross domestic product this year—the highest in the alliance. A multibillion-dollar spending spree has put Poland among the biggest buyers of U.S. weapons.

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    Thomas Grove

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  • Trump’s Fresh Tariff Assault Threatens China’s Fragile Economy

    Beijing was already seeing growth slow before Trump announced the latest 100% tariff increase, part of a trade-war flare-up that China has blamed on the U.S.

    Hannah Miao

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  • How the government shutdown disrupts critical economic data

    The government shutdown that began Wednesday will deprive policymakers and investors of economic data vital to their decision-making at a time of unusual uncertainty about the direction of the U.S. economy.The absence will be felt almost immediately, as the government’s monthly jobs report scheduled for release Friday will likely be delayed. A weekly report on the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits — a proxy for layoffs that is typically published on Thursdays — will also be postponed.If the shutdown is short-lived, it won’t be very disruptive. But if the release of economic data is delayed for several weeks or longer, it could pose challenges, particularly for the Federal Reserve. The Fed is grappling with where to set a key interest rate at a time of conflicting signals, with inflation running above its 2% target and hiring nearly ground to a halt, driving the unemployment rate higher in August.The Fed typically cuts this rate when unemployment rises, but raises it — or at least leaves it unchanged — when inflation is rising too quickly. It’s possible the Fed will have little new federal economic data to analyze by its next meeting on Oct. 28-29, when it is widely expected to reduce its rate again.“The job market had been a source of real strength in the economy but has been slowing down considerably the past few months,” said Michael Linden, senior policy fellow at the left-leaning Washington Center for Equitable Growth. “It would be very good to know if that slowdown was continuing, accelerating, or reversing.”The Fed cut its rate by a quarter-point earlier this month and signaled it was likely to do so twice more this year. Fed officials said they would keep a close eye on how inflation and unemployment evolve, but that depends on the data being available.A key inflation report is scheduled for Oct. 15 and the government’s monthly retail sales report is slated for release the next day.“We’re in a meeting-by-meeting situation, and we’re going to be looking at the data,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference earlier this month.The economic picture has recently gotten cloudier. Despite slower hiring, there are signs that overall economic growth may be picking up. Consumers have stepped up their shopping and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates the economy likely expanded at a healthy clip in the July-September quarter, after a large gain in the April-June period.A key question for the Fed is whether that growth can revive the job market, which this Friday’s report might have helped illustrate. Economists had forecast another month of weak hiring, with just 50,000 new positions added, according to a survey by FactSet. The unemployment rate was projected to stay at a still-low 4.3%.On Wall Street, investors obsess over the monthly jobs reports, typically issued the first Friday of every month. It’s a crucial indicator of the economy’s health and provides insights into how the Fed might adjust interest rates, which affects the cost of borrowing and influences how investors allocate their money.So far, investors don’t seem fazed by the shutdown. The broad S&P 500 stock index rose slightly Wednesday to an all-time high.Many businesses also rely on government data to gauge how the economy is faring. The Commerce Department’s monthly report on retail sales, for example, is a comprehensive look at the health of U.S. consumers and can influence whether companies make plans to expand or shrink their operations and workforces.For the time being, the Fed, economists, and investors will likely focus more on private data.On Wednesday, the payroll provider ADP issued its monthly employment data, which showed that businesses cut 32,000 jobs in September — a signal the economy is slowing. Still, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said her firm’s report “was not intended to be a replacement” for government statistics.The ADP data does not capture what’s happening at government agencies, for example — an area of the economy that could be significantly affected by a lengthy shutdown.“Using a portfolio of private sector and government data gives you a better chance of capturing a very complicated economy in a complex world,” she said.The Fed will remain open no matter how long the shutdown lasts, because it funds itself from earnings on the government bonds and other securities it owns. It will continue to provide its monthly snapshots of industrial production, which includes mining, manufacturing, and utility output. The next industrial production report will be released Oct. 17.

    NEW YORK —

    The government shutdown that began Wednesday will deprive policymakers and investors of economic data vital to their decision-making at a time of unusual uncertainty about the direction of the U.S. economy.

    The absence will be felt almost immediately, as the government’s monthly jobs report scheduled for release Friday will likely be delayed. A weekly report on the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits — a proxy for layoffs that is typically published on Thursdays — will also be postponed.

    If the shutdown is short-lived, it won’t be very disruptive. But if the release of economic data is delayed for several weeks or longer, it could pose challenges, particularly for the Federal Reserve. The Fed is grappling with where to set a key interest rate at a time of conflicting signals, with inflation running above its 2% target and hiring nearly ground to a halt, driving the unemployment rate higher in August.

    The Fed typically cuts this rate when unemployment rises, but raises it — or at least leaves it unchanged — when inflation is rising too quickly. It’s possible the Fed will have little new federal economic data to analyze by its next meeting on Oct. 28-29, when it is widely expected to reduce its rate again.

    “The job market had been a source of real strength in the economy but has been slowing down considerably the past few months,” said Michael Linden, senior policy fellow at the left-leaning Washington Center for Equitable Growth. “It would be very good to know if that slowdown was continuing, accelerating, or reversing.”

    The Fed cut its rate by a quarter-point earlier this month and signaled it was likely to do so twice more this year. Fed officials said they would keep a close eye on how inflation and unemployment evolve, but that depends on the data being available.

    A key inflation report is scheduled for Oct. 15 and the government’s monthly retail sales report is slated for release the next day.

    “We’re in a meeting-by-meeting situation, and we’re going to be looking at the data,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference earlier this month.

    The economic picture has recently gotten cloudier. Despite slower hiring, there are signs that overall economic growth may be picking up. Consumers have stepped up their shopping and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates the economy likely expanded at a healthy clip in the July-September quarter, after a large gain in the April-June period.

    A key question for the Fed is whether that growth can revive the job market, which this Friday’s report might have helped illustrate. Economists had forecast another month of weak hiring, with just 50,000 new positions added, according to a survey by FactSet. The unemployment rate was projected to stay at a still-low 4.3%.

    On Wall Street, investors obsess over the monthly jobs reports, typically issued the first Friday of every month. It’s a crucial indicator of the economy’s health and provides insights into how the Fed might adjust interest rates, which affects the cost of borrowing and influences how investors allocate their money.

    So far, investors don’t seem fazed by the shutdown. The broad S&P 500 stock index rose slightly Wednesday to an all-time high.

    Many businesses also rely on government data to gauge how the economy is faring. The Commerce Department’s monthly report on retail sales, for example, is a comprehensive look at the health of U.S. consumers and can influence whether companies make plans to expand or shrink their operations and workforces.

    For the time being, the Fed, economists, and investors will likely focus more on private data.

    On Wednesday, the payroll provider ADP issued its monthly employment data, which showed that businesses cut 32,000 jobs in September — a signal the economy is slowing. Still, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said her firm’s report “was not intended to be a replacement” for government statistics.

    The ADP data does not capture what’s happening at government agencies, for example — an area of the economy that could be significantly affected by a lengthy shutdown.

    “Using a portfolio of private sector and government data gives you a better chance of capturing a very complicated economy in a complex world,” she said.

    The Fed will remain open no matter how long the shutdown lasts, because it funds itself from earnings on the government bonds and other securities it owns. It will continue to provide its monthly snapshots of industrial production, which includes mining, manufacturing, and utility output. The next industrial production report will be released Oct. 17.

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  • Trump’s tariffs have already hurt the economy—and the pain is only beginning

    The U.S. economy is already feeling the effects of Trump’s tariffs, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) projects that things could get worse.

    The OECD’s biannual interim economic outlook, published on Tuesday, forecasts U.S. growth will fall by a full percentage point from its 2024 rate. While this might not sound like much, this will translate to Americans missing out on trillions of dollars of goods and services by 2035 if this decrease in growth persists.

    From 2010 to 2019, American gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an average of 2.4 percent per year. In 2024, it grew by 2.8 percent. Now, the OECD projects that the economy will grow by only 1.8 percent in 2025 and 1.5 percent in 2026, “owing to higher tariff rates [and] moderating net immigration,” among other factors. Assuming that yearly GDP growth neither rebounds nor falls further but persists at 1.8 percent, the U.S. economy will be $2.2 trillion smaller in 2035 than it would be had President Donald Trump not adopted his protectionist policies and growth remained at 2.4 percent.

    Even though the OECD’s growth projections show the long-run macroeconomic damage of Trump’s tariffs, the American economy has remained relatively strong since he took office. The stock market is at an all-time high while inflation has been about the same as that experienced during the last year of the Biden administration: The average monthly inflation from January 2024 to August 2024, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), was 0.2 percent. From January 2025 to August 2025, monthly CPI growth was not much higher: 0.225 percent. Meanwhile, the average monthly increase in the producer price index (PPI), which measures changes in expenses borne by American businesses, was 36 percent lower compared to the same time last year.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) explains that “imports are excluded from PPI.” The experimental BLS index, which incorporates imports, tells a story similar to regular PPI: this index experienced 38 percent lower inflation from January 2025 to July 2025 than it did during the same period a year ago.

    Relatively stable consumer price inflation and lower producer price inflation—excluding and including imports—under Trump are surprising. After all, the president has more than tripled the average effective tariff rate to 11.6 percent on approximately $2.2 trillion worth of imports, according to the Tax Foundation. Therefore, all things being equal, CPI and PPI should be elevated. So, why aren’t they? The answer lies in the delayed implementation of Trump’s tariffs: Although “Liberation Day” was April 2, the “reciprocal tariffs” announced then were postponed for months, finally taking effect on August 7, meaning “the full effects of tariff increases have yet to be felt,” as the OECD explains.

    While most Americans have not yet felt the tariffs’ full effects, businesses have started to. An August survey administered by the Dallas Federal Reserve found that 60 percent and 70 percent of Texas retailers and manufacturers, respectively, said that Trump’s tariffs were negatively affecting their businesses. Earlier this month, The New York Times reported that Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum have cost John Deere “$300 million so far, with nearly another $300 million expected by the end of the year.” The company has already laid off “238 employees across factories in Illinois and Iowa.” While anecdotal, John Deere’s struggles are reflected in the 48 percent lower growth in total nonfarm employment from January 2025 to August 2025 (598,000 jobs added) compared to those months last year (1.1 million jobs added).

    Trump can reverse course at any time by rolling back the Section 232 tariffs and reciprocal tariffs. Even if Trump insists on hobbling the economy with his pointless trade war, Americans could soon enjoy some relief when the Supreme Court convenes in November to hear arguments about the constitutionality of his “Liberation Day” tariffs.

    Jack Nicastro

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