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Tag: economic data

  • AI is everywhere except in the data, suggesting it will enhance labor in some sectors rather than replace workers in all sectors, top economist says | Fortune

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    Despite hopes for unlocking a new era soaring growth and abundance, AI has yet to manifest itself clearly in macro data, according to Apollo Chief Economic Torsten Slok.

    In a note on Saturday, he recalled economist Robert Solow’s quip from the 1980s as PCs were transforming the economy: “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.”

    The same thing can be said today about AI, Slok wrote, noting that data on employment, productivity and inflation are still not showing signs of the new technology. Profit margins and earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies outside of the “Magnificent 7” also lack evidence of AI at work.

    “AI is everywhere except in the incoming macroeconomic data,” he said.

    To be sure, investors are not waiting for AI to upend business models, and their fears have laid waste to the stock market recently.

    As increasingly capable chatbots roll out, shares with exposure to wealth managers, insurance brokerages, tax preparation, accounting services, professional data, legal research, trucking, and logistics have sold off hard. 

    Meanwhile, AI evangelists see stunning economic gains. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said at the World Economic Forum last month that AI could boost GDP growth to 5%-10%.

    And Elon Musk, cofounder of xAI, predicted AI will create so much wealth that working will be optional in the not-too-distant future.

    But Slok is not yet convinced.

    “Maybe there is a J‑curve effect for AI, where it takes time for AI to show up in the macro data. Maybe not,” he wrote on Saturday.

    That will depend on the value creation from AI, Slok explained. So far, it’s playing out differently than the computer revolution did in the 1980s.

    Instead of early innovators reaping monopoly pricing power until rivals erode that lead, fierce competition among large language model developers has driven their prices toward zero for end-users. 

    But from a macro perspective, the value AI creates is derived from how it’s used in the economy, not from a specific product, Slok said. So far, economists don’t foresee much impact, pointing for several studies.

    The Penn Wharton Budget Model, for example, sees an annual gain in total factor productivity from AI amounting to just 0.1-0.2 percentage point, translating to a cumulative boost of 1.5% by 2035.

    Apollo Global

    “After three years with ChatGPT and still no signs of AI in the incoming data, it looks like AI will likely be labor enhancing in some sectors rather than labor replacing in all sectors,” Slok said.

    Similarly, the Congressional Budget Office has penciled in a relatively conservative view, estimating AI will add just 0.1 percentage point a year to total factor productivity growth and eventually boost output by 1 percentage point by 2036.

    But that also came as the Labor Department revised its reading on 2025 job gains to just 181,000, down from an initial print of 584,000 and from 2024’s gain of 1.46 million.

    Given that the economy continued to expand at a healthy pace while adding so few workers last year, productivity should surge and raise questions about what, if any, effect AI had.

    “The widespread adoption of the generative AI applications currently in production is expected to improve business efficiency and the organization of work and thus to lift TFP growth modestly over the next decade,” CBO said in its latest projections.

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    Jason Ma

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  • In his national address, President Trump claimed he’s bringing prices down. Here’s what the data shows.

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    After nearly two months without new consumer price data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest report Thursday, providing a glimpse at energy costs, food prices and other everyday expenses.

    According to the consumer price index, inflation slowed in November, with prices rising 0.2% over the 0.3% observed in September. (BLS could not collect October data because of the government shutdown.)

    Still, inflation remains stubbornly high. Compared with a year ago, consumer costs are up about 2.7%.

    Thursday’s report came just a day after President Donald Trump delivered a prime-time address from the White House in which he largely discussed affordability concerns, from housing costs to grocery prices, saying the U.S. is “poised for an economic boom.”

    “The last administration and their allies in Congress looted our treasury for trillions of dollars, driving up prices and everything at levels never seen before. I am bringing those high prices down and bringing them down very fast.”

    In truth, of the 11 everyday costs tracked month to month by the consumer price index, only five have decreased since January.

    Here’s a closer look at the president’s claims and how prices are changing, or not, during his second term in office.

    To see the average U.S. price of a specific good, click on the drop-down arrow below and select the item you wish to view.

    Eggs

    In the wake of all-time highs set earlier this year, egg prices have collapsed in recent months.

    That downward trend continued in November, with the price dropping a whopping 63 cents from September and settling at $2.86 per dozen. It’s the first time since June 2024 that the average nationwide price for a dozen large Grade A eggs registered below the $3 mark.

    This steep drop-off in prices is a result of a declining number of bird flu cases in commercial and backyard flocks. In the first two months of 2025, tens of millions of birds were affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza across 39 states, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. With entire flocks culled to prevent the spread of the virus, the egg supply was strained, leading to shortages in stores and record costs for consumers.

    Following another spike in cases in the early fall, the number of new infections appears to be subsiding again, with less than 2 million U.S. birds affected in the past two months. More notably, zero outbreaks among egg-laying chickens have been reported in November and December.

    Consequently, costs are “falling rapidly” as highlighted by Trump in his prime-time address earlier this week.

    “The price of eggs is down 82% since March, and everything else is falling rapidly. And it’s not done yet, but boy are we making progress. Nobody can believe what’s going on.”

    While egg prices have dropped considerably from March’s record high of $6.23 per dozen, the difference of roughly $3.37 from March to November represents a 54% decrease — not the 82% cited by the president.

    In a statement given to the Tribune, a White House official clarified that he was referring to wholesale costs, not retail prices.

    Milk

    The cost of milk also saw a measurable decrease from the previous month, falling 13 cents.

    A gallon of fresh, fortified whole milk is now priced at $4.00 — that’s 2.5% less than it was in December 2024, before Trump took office.

    Bread

    The average price of white bread fell in November to $1.79 per pound, marking a three-year low for the pantry staple. Time for bread pudding, anyone?

    Bananas

    The cost of bananas fell slightly from September’s all-time highs, dropping just a fraction of a cent to $0.66 per pound in November.

    Recent price inflation is likely a byproduct of the president’s trade war, with tariffs imposed on the country’s top banana suppliers like Guatemala, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia, Honduras and Mexico — all of which are currently subject to an import tax of at least 10%.

    But in mid-November, Trump took action to combat rising grocery costs, announcing that some agricultural products would be exempt from tariffs due to “current domestic demand for certain products” and “current domestic capacity to produce certain products.”

    Both fresh and dried bananas were among the listed exemptions, indicating that lower prices may be around the corner.

    Oranges

    No data on orange prices was available for November.

    However, in September, the cost of navel oranges was listed at $1.80 per pound, less than a cent shy of record highs and nearly 18% more than they were at the start of the Trump administration.

    Drastically low domestic orange production combined with steep tariffs on foreign growers have been helping to push costs skyward. But, as with bananas, oranges are now exempt from most reciprocal tariffs.

    Tomatoes

    As of November, the cost of field-grown tomatoes was $1.83 per pound. That price is 8 cents lower than the previous month of data and down roughly 12% since Trump took power.

    The change is somewhat abnormal given the growing season, as prices typically rise in the fall and peak in the early winter months, and could be attributable to the Trump administration’s recent course reversal on many of its tomato tariffs.

    Chicken

    The cost of fresh, whole chicken fell for a fourth consecutive month, to $2.04 per pound — its lowest price in a year.

    Rising feed costs and the effects of bird flu on the poultry supply chain have driven persistently higher prices, but with the number of cases dropping again, we could see lower prices in the new year.

    Still, the average cost is only about 2 cents less than it was when President Joe Biden left the White House.

    Ground beef

    Ground beef is getting more expensive.

    After shoppers saw some relief in September from climbing costs, the price of ground beef jumped another 18 cents.

    Rising costs can be attributed to a confluence of factors. The U.S. cattle inventory is the lowest it’s been in almost 75 years, and severe drought in parts of the country has further reduced the feed supply, per the USDA. Additionally, steep tariff rates on top beef importers also played a part in higher prices stateside, but as of Nov. 13 high-quality cuts, processed beef and live cattle are exempt from most countries’ levies.

    Still, since the change of administrations, ground beef costs have ballooned by 18% — translating to $1 per pound price increases at the grocery store.

    As of November, a pound of 100% ground beef chuck would set you back about $6.50.

    Electricity

    Electric costs have also been steadily rising.

    At approximately 19 cents per kilowatt-hour, the current price of electricity is a fraction of a cent off August’s high. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average American household uses 899 kWh every four weeks, translating to a monthly bill of about $170.

    Thankfully, the White House appears to be working to mitigate mounting costs. In his presidential address, Trump claimed that within the next 12 months his administration will have opened 1,600 new electrical generating plants.

    “Prices on electricity and everything else will fall dramatically,” Trump said.

    For many Americans, relief is needed. Since last December, the average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour has increased more than 7%.

    Gasoline

    Declining gas prices were another highlight of Trump’s Wednesday night remarks.

    The cost of gasoline has tumbled from the record-setting prices Americans saw three summers ago under Biden, and just last month, the price at the pump dropped more than 10 cents per gallon.

    “On day one I declared a national energy emergency,” Trump said. “Gasoline is now under $2.50 a gallon in much of the country. In some states, it by the way, just hit $1.99 a gallon.”

    According to the latest CPI data, the average nationwide cost for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline is $3.23. And though prices are noticeably lower than they were two to three years ago, that average remains higher than it was just a year ago and up nearly 3% during the Trump presidency.

    Prices in Chicago, meanwhile, are about the same month-over-month, costing an average of $3.29 per gallon, according to EIA data.

    Natural gas

    Bucking its previous downward trend, piped utility gas, or natural gas, is another expense that’s climbing. The nationwide cost jumped 3 cents in November, landing at $1.64 per therm.

    On average, Americans are paying close to 8% more to heat their homes, ovens and stovetops than when Biden left office. Year-over-year, that gap is even more drastic: a roughly 10% change or difference of 15 cents per therm.

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    Claire Malon

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  • How the government shutdown disrupts critical economic data

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    The government shutdown that began Wednesday will deprive policymakers and investors of economic data vital to their decision-making at a time of unusual uncertainty about the direction of the U.S. economy.The absence will be felt almost immediately, as the government’s monthly jobs report scheduled for release Friday will likely be delayed. A weekly report on the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits — a proxy for layoffs that is typically published on Thursdays — will also be postponed.If the shutdown is short-lived, it won’t be very disruptive. But if the release of economic data is delayed for several weeks or longer, it could pose challenges, particularly for the Federal Reserve. The Fed is grappling with where to set a key interest rate at a time of conflicting signals, with inflation running above its 2% target and hiring nearly ground to a halt, driving the unemployment rate higher in August.The Fed typically cuts this rate when unemployment rises, but raises it — or at least leaves it unchanged — when inflation is rising too quickly. It’s possible the Fed will have little new federal economic data to analyze by its next meeting on Oct. 28-29, when it is widely expected to reduce its rate again.“The job market had been a source of real strength in the economy but has been slowing down considerably the past few months,” said Michael Linden, senior policy fellow at the left-leaning Washington Center for Equitable Growth. “It would be very good to know if that slowdown was continuing, accelerating, or reversing.”The Fed cut its rate by a quarter-point earlier this month and signaled it was likely to do so twice more this year. Fed officials said they would keep a close eye on how inflation and unemployment evolve, but that depends on the data being available.A key inflation report is scheduled for Oct. 15 and the government’s monthly retail sales report is slated for release the next day.“We’re in a meeting-by-meeting situation, and we’re going to be looking at the data,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference earlier this month.The economic picture has recently gotten cloudier. Despite slower hiring, there are signs that overall economic growth may be picking up. Consumers have stepped up their shopping and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates the economy likely expanded at a healthy clip in the July-September quarter, after a large gain in the April-June period.A key question for the Fed is whether that growth can revive the job market, which this Friday’s report might have helped illustrate. Economists had forecast another month of weak hiring, with just 50,000 new positions added, according to a survey by FactSet. The unemployment rate was projected to stay at a still-low 4.3%.On Wall Street, investors obsess over the monthly jobs reports, typically issued the first Friday of every month. It’s a crucial indicator of the economy’s health and provides insights into how the Fed might adjust interest rates, which affects the cost of borrowing and influences how investors allocate their money.So far, investors don’t seem fazed by the shutdown. The broad S&P 500 stock index rose slightly Wednesday to an all-time high.Many businesses also rely on government data to gauge how the economy is faring. The Commerce Department’s monthly report on retail sales, for example, is a comprehensive look at the health of U.S. consumers and can influence whether companies make plans to expand or shrink their operations and workforces.For the time being, the Fed, economists, and investors will likely focus more on private data.On Wednesday, the payroll provider ADP issued its monthly employment data, which showed that businesses cut 32,000 jobs in September — a signal the economy is slowing. Still, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said her firm’s report “was not intended to be a replacement” for government statistics.The ADP data does not capture what’s happening at government agencies, for example — an area of the economy that could be significantly affected by a lengthy shutdown.“Using a portfolio of private sector and government data gives you a better chance of capturing a very complicated economy in a complex world,” she said.The Fed will remain open no matter how long the shutdown lasts, because it funds itself from earnings on the government bonds and other securities it owns. It will continue to provide its monthly snapshots of industrial production, which includes mining, manufacturing, and utility output. The next industrial production report will be released Oct. 17.

    The government shutdown that began Wednesday will deprive policymakers and investors of economic data vital to their decision-making at a time of unusual uncertainty about the direction of the U.S. economy.

    The absence will be felt almost immediately, as the government’s monthly jobs report scheduled for release Friday will likely be delayed. A weekly report on the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits — a proxy for layoffs that is typically published on Thursdays — will also be postponed.

    If the shutdown is short-lived, it won’t be very disruptive. But if the release of economic data is delayed for several weeks or longer, it could pose challenges, particularly for the Federal Reserve. The Fed is grappling with where to set a key interest rate at a time of conflicting signals, with inflation running above its 2% target and hiring nearly ground to a halt, driving the unemployment rate higher in August.

    The Fed typically cuts this rate when unemployment rises, but raises it — or at least leaves it unchanged — when inflation is rising too quickly. It’s possible the Fed will have little new federal economic data to analyze by its next meeting on Oct. 28-29, when it is widely expected to reduce its rate again.

    “The job market had been a source of real strength in the economy but has been slowing down considerably the past few months,” said Michael Linden, senior policy fellow at the left-leaning Washington Center for Equitable Growth. “It would be very good to know if that slowdown was continuing, accelerating, or reversing.”

    The Fed cut its rate by a quarter-point earlier this month and signaled it was likely to do so twice more this year. Fed officials said they would keep a close eye on how inflation and unemployment evolve, but that depends on the data being available.

    A key inflation report is scheduled for Oct. 15 and the government’s monthly retail sales report is slated for release the next day.

    “We’re in a meeting-by-meeting situation, and we’re going to be looking at the data,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference earlier this month.

    The economic picture has recently gotten cloudier. Despite slower hiring, there are signs that overall economic growth may be picking up. Consumers have stepped up their shopping and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates the economy likely expanded at a healthy clip in the July-September quarter, after a large gain in the April-June period.

    A key question for the Fed is whether that growth can revive the job market, which this Friday’s report might have helped illustrate. Economists had forecast another month of weak hiring, with just 50,000 new positions added, according to a survey by FactSet. The unemployment rate was projected to stay at a still-low 4.3%.

    On Wall Street, investors obsess over the monthly jobs reports, typically issued the first Friday of every month. It’s a crucial indicator of the economy’s health and provides insights into how the Fed might adjust interest rates, which affects the cost of borrowing and influences how investors allocate their money.

    So far, investors don’t seem fazed by the shutdown. The broad S&P 500 stock index rose slightly Wednesday to an all-time high.

    Many businesses also rely on government data to gauge how the economy is faring. The Commerce Department’s monthly report on retail sales, for example, is a comprehensive look at the health of U.S. consumers and can influence whether companies make plans to expand or shrink their operations and workforces.

    For the time being, the Fed, economists, and investors will likely focus more on private data.

    On Wednesday, the payroll provider ADP issued its monthly employment data, which showed that businesses cut 32,000 jobs in September — a signal the economy is slowing. Still, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said her firm’s report “was not intended to be a replacement” for government statistics.

    The ADP data does not capture what’s happening at government agencies, for example — an area of the economy that could be significantly affected by a lengthy shutdown.

    “Using a portfolio of private sector and government data gives you a better chance of capturing a very complicated economy in a complex world,” she said.

    The Fed will remain open no matter how long the shutdown lasts, because it funds itself from earnings on the government bonds and other securities it owns. It will continue to provide its monthly snapshots of industrial production, which includes mining, manufacturing, and utility output. The next industrial production report will be released Oct. 17.

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