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  • U.S. Treasury posts sharply higher $228 billion June deficit

    U.S. Treasury posts sharply higher $228 billion June deficit

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    WASHINGTON, July 13 (Reuters) – The U.S. government posted a $228 billion budget deficit for June, up 156% from a year earlier as revenues continued to weaken and July benefit payments were accelerated into June, the U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday.

    The deficit compares to a June 2022 budget gap of $89 billion. June receipts fell $42 billion, or 9% from a year ago, to $418 billion, while June outlays rose $96 billion, or 18%, to $646 billion.

    But some $86 billion worth of July benefit payments were made in June because July 1 fell on a weekend, and without these and other calendar adjustments, the June deficit would have been $142 billion — a 66% increase over June 2022.

    For the first nine months of the 2023 fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, receipts fell $423 billion, or 11%, from the year-ago period to $3.413 trillion. The decline was primarily driven by lower non-withheld individual income taxes due to lower capital gains in 2022 and lower year-end salary bonuses, as well as sharply higher individual tax refunds as the Internal Revenue Service cleared a backlog of unprocessed receipts.

    The Federal Reserve has earned $93 billion less this year because it is paying higher interest on bank reserves and no longer has positive net income – a situation that a Treasury official said was expected to continue.

    Year-to-date outlays rose $455 billion, or 10% from a year earlier to $4.805 trillion. Higher outlays for Social Security this year have been driven by cost-of-living adjustments, while the interest on the public debt so far this year has risen $131 billion, or 25%, to $652 billion due to higher interest rates.

    Also driving up outlays were $52 billion in Federal Deposit Insurance Corp costs to resolve failing banks, a Treasury official said.

    Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Andrea Ricci

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Chip wars: How ‘chiplets’ are emerging as a core part of China’s tech strategy

    Chip wars: How ‘chiplets’ are emerging as a core part of China’s tech strategy

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    July 13 (Reuters) – The sale of struggling Silicon Valley startup zGlue’s patents in 2021 was unremarkable except for one detail: The technology it owned, designed to cut the time and cost for making chips, showed up 13 months later in the patent portfolio of Chipuller, a startup in China’s southern tech hub Shenzhen.

    Chipuller purchased what is referred to as chiplet technology, a cost efficient way to package groups of small semiconductors to form one powerful brain capable of powering everything from data centers to gadgets at home.

    The previously unreported technology transfer coincides with a push for chiplet technology in China that started about two years ago, according to a Reuters analysis of hundreds of patents in the U.S. and China and dozens of Chinese government procurement documents, research papers and grants, local and central government policy documents and interviews with Chinese chip executives.

    Industry experts say chiplet technology has become even more important to China since the U.S. barred it from accessing advanced machines and materials needed to make today’s most cutting edge chips, and now largely underpins the country’s plans for self-reliance in semiconductor manufacturing.

    “U.S.-China competition is on the same starting line,” Chipuller chairman Yang Meng said about chiplet technology in an interview with Reuters. “In other (chip technologies) there is a sizeable gap between China and the United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan.”

    Barely mentioned before 2021, Chinese authorities have highlighted chiplets more frequently in recent years, according to a Reuters review. At least 20 policy documents from local to central governments referred to it as part of a broader strategy to increase China’s capabilities in “key and cutting-edge technologies”.

    “Chiplets have a very special meaning for China given the restrictions on wafer fabrication equipment,” said Charles Shi, a chip analyst for brokerage Needham. “They can still develop 3D stacking or other chiplet technology to work around those restrictions. That’s the grand strategy, and I think it might even work.”

    Beijing is rapidly exploiting chiplet technology in applications as diverse as artificial intelligence to self-driving cars, with entities from tech giant Huawei Technologies to military institutions exploring its use.

    More major investments in the area are on the way, according to a review of corporate announcements.

    CHINA’S CHIPLET ADVANTAGE

    Chiplets, or small chips, can be the size of a grain of sand or bigger than a thumbnail and are brought together in a process called advanced packaging.

    It is a technology the global chip industry has increasingly embraced in recent years as chip manufacturing costs soar in the race to make transistors so small they are now measured in the number of atoms.

    Bonding chiplets tightly together can help make more powerful systems without shrinking the transistor size as the multiple chips can work like one brain.

    Apple’s high-end computer lines use chiplet technology, as do Intel and AMD’s more powerful chips.

    About a quarter of the global chip packaging and testing market sits in China, according to Dongguan Securities.

    While some say this gives China an advantage in leveraging chiplet technology, Chipuller chairman Yang cautioned the proportion of China’s packaging industry that could be considered advanced was “not very big”.

    Under the right conditions, chiplets that are personalised according to the needs of the customer can be completed quickly, in “three to four months, this is the unique advantage China holds,” according to Yang.

    Needham’s Shi said according to import data published by China’s customs agency, China’s purchase of chip packaging equipment soared to $3.3 billion in 2021 from its previous high of $1.7 billion in 2018, although last year it fell to $2.3 billion with the chip market downturn.

    Since early 2021 research papers on chiplets started surfacing by researchers of the Chinese military People’s Liberation Army and universities it runs, and state-run and PLA-affiliated laboratories are looking to use chips made using domestic chiplet technology according to six tenders published over the past three years.

    Public documents by the government also show millions of dollars worth of grants to researchers specializing in chiplet technology, while dozens of smaller companies have sprouted throughout China in recent years to meet domestic demand for advanced packaging solutions like chiplets.

    CHIPLETS ON THE TABLE

    Against the backdrop of escalating U.S.-China tension, Chinese company Chipuller acquired 28 patents either owned by zGlue or invented by people whose names are on zGlue’s patents, according to an analysis using IP management technology firm Anaqua’s Acclaim IP database.

    The acquisition was through a two-step transfer, first through British Virgin Islands-registered North Sea Investment Co Ltd, according to documents seen by Reuters and confirmed by Yang.

    The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a powerful Treasury-led committee that reviews transactions for potential threats to U.S. security, did not respond to a Reuters request for comment about whether such sales would require their approval.

    CFIUS lawyers Laura Black at Akin’s Trade Group, Melissa Mannino at BakerHostetler and Perry Bechky at Berliner Corcoran & Rowe say patent sales alone would not necessarily give CFIUS authority over the deal, as it depends whether the assets purchased constitute a U.S. business.

    Representative Mike Gallagher, an influential lawmaker whose select committee on China has pressed the Biden administration to take tougher stances on China, told Reuters zGlue’s case highlights the “urgent need to reform CFIUS”.

    “(People’s Republic of China) entities should not be able to act with impunity to take advantage of distressed U.S. firms to transfer their IP to China,” he said in an emailed statement.

    Chipuller’s Yang said zGlue’s lawyer communicated with both CFIUS and the Department of Commerce to ensure the sale to North Sea would not fall foul of export controls.

    These discussions did not include mention of Chipuller or the possibility of a Chinese entity ending up in possession of the patents, according to a Chipuller spokesperson.

    “Everything was done very transparently and in accordance with (U.S.) law,” Yang said.

    Yang said he considered himself a founder of zGlue as he became an investor in the company in 2015, soon after its formation, and later became a director and chairman.

    CFIUS visited zGlue offices in 2018 to conduct an investigation because the company’s largest non-U.S. investor, Yang, was from China, the chairman said.

    “So we have spent a lot of time communicating with CFIUS,” Yang said, adding that Chipuller currently does not supply any Chinese military or U.S.-sanctioned entities.

    Chipuller isn’t the only firm with chiplet technology.

    Huawei, China’s tech and chip design giant that has been put on the U.S.’s most restricted list, has been actively filing chiplet patents.

    Huawei published over 900 chiplet-related patent applications and grants last year in China, up from 30 in 2017, according to Anaqua’s director of analytics solutions Shayne Phillips.

    Huawei declined to comment.

    Reuters identified over a dozen announcements over the past two years for new factories or expansions of existing ones from companies using chiplet technology in manufacturing across China’s tech sector, representing an investment totalling over 40 billion yuan.

    They include domestic giants TongFu Microelectronics (002156.SZ) and JCET Group (600584.SS), as well as fast-growing startups such as Beijing ESWIN Technology Group, which spent 5.5 billion yuan on a factory for its chiplet-focused subsidiary that began operating in April.

    One article published in May by an outlet run by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) urged big Chinese tech firms the use of domestic packaging companies such as TongFu to help build China’s self-sufficiency in computing power.

    “Use Chiplet technology to break through the United States’ siege of my country’s advanced process chips,” it said.

    MIIT did not respond to a request for comment.

    Chipuller chairman Yang puts it this way: “Chiplet technology is the core driving force for the development of the domestic semiconductor industry,” he said on the company’s official WeChat channel. “It is our mission and duty to bring it back to China.”

    ($1 = 7.2205 Chinese yuan renminbi)

    Reporting by Jane Lanhee Lee and Eduardo Baptista; Additional reporting by Echo Wang and Stephen Nellis; editing by Kenneth Li, Brenda Goh and Lincoln Feast.

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

    Reports on global trends in computing from covering semiconductors and tools to manufacture them to quantum computing. Has 27 years of experience reporting from South Korea, China, and the U.S. and previously worked at the Asian Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones Newswires and Reuters TV. In her free time, she studies math and physics with the goal …

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  • Canada housing market upturn could delay shift to BoC rate cuts

    Canada housing market upturn could delay shift to BoC rate cuts

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    TORONTO, May 14 (Reuters) – Signs of recovery in Canada’s housing market after a year-long slump, just as higher borrowing costs are expected to slow much of the rest of the economy, could raise inflation and delay a shift by the central bank to interest rate cuts, analysts said.

    The housing market’s upturn comes after the Bank of Canada paused its interest rate hiking campaign last month, leaving the benchmark rate at a 15-year high of 4.50% since January.

    In addition, analysts say higher borrowing costs have so far caused less financial stress for homebuyers than they had expected, so the market has not had to accommodate a flood of supply from forced sellers.

    The BoC is counting on slower economic growth to return inflation to its 2% target. A rebound in the housing market could boost activity and contribute directly to price pressures.

    “The Bank of Canada at the end of the day is probably not going to be too thrilled if the housing market really starts to ramp up,” said Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “From a shelter cost perspective, you are going to start to see more upward push on inflation in the second half of this year.”

    The cost of shelter has the highest weighting in Canada’s consumer price index, accounting for 30%. And, home prices tend to be highly visible, so an increase could have a pronounced impact on inflation expectations, analysts say.

    The average price for a home in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada’s most populous metropolitan region, rose in April on a month-over-month basis for a third straight month, while sales also moved higher. Other major markets have also showed gains.

    Despite higher borrowing costs, mortgage delinquency rates have remained low for now in Canada after mortgage borrowers were put through a stress test showing they could manage if interest rates were 2 percentage points higher than the rate on their loan.

    In addition, variable-rate borrowers have been sheltered from higher interest rates after lenders temporarily extended the period over which their debt is amortized, keeping their payments the same.

    “One of the reasons the market has been able to stabilize so quickly is because there’s just no forced selling,” Kavcic said.

    Things could change – Royal Bank of Canada recently warned of the risk that mortgage delinquencies rise by more than a third over the coming year.

    The other worry is that stress in the U.S. regional banking sector could spill over to Canada. Clues on that front could come from the BoC’s Financial System Review – an annual checkup of financial system tensions – which is due for release on Thursday.

    But there are also tailwinds to support a recovery, including supply shortfalls, record immigration and labor market strength, analysts said.

    Wage growth could cool over the coming months, helping to lower inflation, but the Bank of Canada “is unlikely to be in a rush to cut interest rates if house prices are roaring higher again,” Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.

    Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Steve Scherer and Jonathan Oatis

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Biden says US debt ceiling talks are moving along

    Biden says US debt ceiling talks are moving along

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    WASHINGTON, May 13 (Reuters) – President Joe Biden said on Saturday that talks with Congress on raising the U.S. government’s debt limit were moving along and more will be known about their progress in the next two days.

    “I think they are moving along, hard to tell. We have not reached the crunch point yet,” Biden told reporters at Joint Base Andrews.

    “We’ll know more in the next two days,” he said.

    Biden is expected to meet with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders early next week to resume negotiations.

    The leaders had canceled a planned meeting on Friday to let staff continue discussions.

    Aides for Biden and McCarthy have started to discuss ways to limit federal spending as talks on raising the government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling to avoid a catastrophic default creep forward, Reuters has reported.

    The Treasury Department says it could run out of money by June 1 unless lawmakers lift the nation’s debt ceiling.

    Reporting by Jeff Mason; Writing by Eric Beech; Editing by David Gregorio

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • It’s not 2020 anymore. Biden’s re-election campaign faces new challenges

    It’s not 2020 anymore. Biden’s re-election campaign faces new challenges

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    WASHINGTON, April 23 (Reuters) – It won’t be a campaign from the basement this time.

    As U.S. President Joe Biden gears up for a bruising re-election battle, the realities of the 2024 race and differences with 2020 at the height of the coronavirus pandemic create new challenges for him.

    Biden, a Democrat, says he is running again and is considering a formal announcement via video as soon as Tuesday.

    In 2020, Biden kept a low profile as the spread of COVID-19 caused havoc to most aspects of American life, including the election campaign that pitted him against then-President Donald Trump, a Republican.

    Trump still spoke at big rallies, but Biden did much of his campaigning virtually from the basement of his home in Wilmington, Delaware, largely avoiding crowds to prevent the spread of disease and reduce his own risk of catching the virus.

    That will change this time around. Gone will be the aversion to public events, large and small, likely replaced by traditional campaign stops at diners, factories and union halls with handshakes, selfies, and crowds of people.

    The Democratic convention in Chicago will be in-person rather than online. And Biden, who at 80 is already the oldest president in U.S. history, will have his day job to do while he makes the case for four more years in office.

    Biden beat Trump in 2020 by winning the Electoral College 306 to 232, winning the close swing states of Pennsylvania and Georgia, and he bested Trump by more than 7 million votes nationally, capturing 51.3 percent of the popular vote to the Republican’s 46.8 percent.

    AGE FACTOR

    Republicans will watch closely for signs of a diminished schedule to suggest that age has made Biden less fit for the campaign trail, and for the White House.

    “It’s quite shocking that Biden thinks he would be able to fill a second term, let alone the rest of this term,” said Republican strategist Scott Reed.

    Trump, the early front-runner for the Republican nomination, is himself 76 years old.

    Biden’s reply to concerns about his age and running for re-election has been to say “watch me,” and the White House points to his record of legislative accomplishments as a sign of his effectiveness.

    “An extensive travel schedule is not the measure of a candidate’s ability to do the job,” said Democratic strategist Karen Finney. “There’s no scenario where the Republicans don’t try to make his age an issue. We know that. And so the focus has to be on … what is the most effective way to reach the American people. Some of that, yes, is going to be in-person events and travel, but there may be other innovations.”

    CAMPAIGN REINVENTED

    Biden campaign aides reinvented his 2020 campaign as COVID-19 spread across the country.

    Some of the innovations were regarded as a success, including star-studded virtual fundraisers done without the need for expensive travel.

    But other changes were more controversial, including a months-long prohibition on the use of door-knocking by campaign volunteers and the regular appearances by Biden in his home’s basement, which became a meme panned by right-wing voters.

    Having to get out more than in 2020 could help Biden, said Meg Bostrom, co-founder of Topos Partnership, a strategic communications firm.

    “Just look at the State of the Union (address.) That was the best I’ve ever seen. When Republicans started heckling him, he just lit up,” she said. Biden sparred ably with Republicans during his speech to Congress in February.

    But other issues may trip up the incumbent president on the campaign trail, including his handling of the economy.

    “The allure for voting for Biden in 2020 was sort of the quaint notion of getting back to normal,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell, referring to the chaos of Trump’s time in office.

    “The problem for Biden is that he’s been in power … and things are anything but normal, especially when it comes to the economy and inflation.”

    Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics

    RECESSION CONCERNS

    Biden took office in January 2021 just as COVID vaccines were rolling out, and economic conditions gradually normalized during his early tenure after the shock of nationwide shutdowns. The United States now boasts 3.2 million jobs over the pre-pandemic peak.

    But Americans are concerned about a potential recession, and Biden may suffer from being on the wrong side of an economic cycle heading into 2024, with unemployment likely to rise as growth slows, interest rates remaining high and inflation potentially hovering above pre-pandemic levels.

    Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics

    Trump, who has announced his re-election bid already and could be Biden’s opponent again, is expected to follow the strategy that he employed in 2016 and 2020 with multiple large rallies to energize his base.

    But he will first have to win what could be a grueling Republican nomination contest – something that Biden, as an incumbent without major opposition inside his party, will not face.

    “We don’t need fire and brimstone. We don’t need rah rah rallies,” said Democratic strategist Joe Lestingi. “We need the strength and conviction of our values and a steadiness not to move on them.”

    Biden, he said, would provide that steadiness.

    “I think he’ll get out more,” Lestingi said, praising Biden’s skill at traditional “retail” politics. “If you get an opportunity to be with him in a small intimate setting, he can make a real big difference.”

    Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics

    Reporting by Jeff Mason; additional reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt, Steve Holland, Howard Schneider and Andrea Shalal; editing by Grant McCool

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

    Jeff Mason

    Thomson Reuters

    Jeff Mason is a White House Correspondent for Reuters. He has covered the presidencies of Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden and the presidential campaigns of Biden, Trump, Obama, Hillary Clinton and John McCain.

    He served as president of the White House Correspondents’ Association in 2016-2017, leading the press corps in advocating for press freedom in the early days of the Trump administration. His and the WHCA’s work was recognized with Deutsche Welle’s “Freedom of Speech Award.”

    Jeff has asked pointed questions of domestic and foreign leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. He is a winner of the WHCA’s “Excellence in Presidential News Coverage Under Deadline Pressure” award and co-winner of the Association for Business Journalists’ “Breaking News” award.

    Jeff began his career in Frankfurt, Germany as a business reporter before being posted to Brussels, Belgium, where he covered the European Union.

    Jeff appears regularly on television and radio and teaches political journalism at Georgetown University. He is a graduate of Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism and a former Fulbright scholar.

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  • Exclusive: India’s Bank of Baroda stops clearing payment for above-cap Russian oil – sources

    Exclusive: India’s Bank of Baroda stops clearing payment for above-cap Russian oil – sources

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    NEW DELHI, April 4 (Reuters) – India’s Bank of Baroda (BOB.NS) has stopped clearing payments for Russian oil sold above the price cap set by the West from this month, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, a move that could expedite transition to a rupee trade mechanism.

    Some Indian refiners were paying in the United Arab Emirates dirham currency for Russian low-sulphur crude priced above the $60 a barrel cap using Bank of Baroda, mainly to Dubai-based traders, sources said.

    The Group of Seven economies, the European Union and Australia, set the price cap late last year to bar Western services and shipping from trading Russian oil unless sold at an enforced low price to deprive Moscow of funds for its Ukraine war.

    “Bank of Baroda is extremely cautious in settling payments for Russian oil bought (at levels) above the price cap,” one of the sources said.

    “They have told us no for settling payments for above-cap barrels,” the person said.

    The state-run lender told refiners last month that it would not settle payment from Russian barrels bought above the price cap, the three sources said.

    Bank of Baroda did not respond to requests for comment from Reuters.

    Before the Ukraine war, Indian refiners rarely bought oil from Russia due to higher freight costs. After Western sanctions on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, Indian refiners have been gorging on discounted Russian oil.

    Russia has replaced Iraq as the top oil supplier to India in the last few months, data from trade sources showed.

    Sources anticipate that prices of Russian sweet crude such as Sokol and ESPO Blend, which was sold near $60 a barrel in recent weeks, could breach the price cap due to a sharp spike in global oil prices triggered by Sunday’s OPEC+ decision to cut output.

    Some refiners, mainly private operators, have been clearing payments in dirhams for Russian crude through private lender Axis Bank (AXBK.NS), sources told Reuters last month. It was not clear if Axis Bank had also stopped settling trades for Russian oil sold above the price cap.

    Axis Bank did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

    Although Indian refiners buy Russian oil on a delivered basis, copies of invoices reviewed by Reuters also show shipping charges, which helps in calculating the price of crude at Russian ports.

    Sources said that problems in settling trade for Russian oil could push sellers to accept rupee payments, at least for barrels that exceed the price cap.

    “We have neither stopped nor reduced purchases of Russian oil after Bank of Baroda’s decision … we will consider using rupees to pay for oil purchased above the price cap,” another source said.

    India does not recognise the Western price cap on Russian oil, a senior oil ministry source said last month.

    SETTLEMENT MECHANISM

    India set up a mechanism to settle its international trade in rupees last year. Some Russian banks later opened vostro accounts with banks in India to facilitate rupee trade.

    The mechanism has not yet started given the lack of Russian appetite for rupees and India’s trade deficit with Moscow.

    However, during a visit last week to India, Igor Sechin, chief executive of Russian oil major Rosneft, discussed ways to expand cooperation with India across the hydrocarbons value chain, including the possibility of making payments in national currencies.

    A switch to rupee payments would help wean Russia from dollars and would save foreign exchange for India.

    Reporting by Nidhi Verma; Additional reporting by Siddhi Nayak in Mumbai; Editing by Tony Munroe and Jacqueline Wong

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Saudi Arabia could invest in Iran ‘very quickly’ after agreement – minister

    Saudi Arabia could invest in Iran ‘very quickly’ after agreement – minister

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    RIYADH, March 15 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan said on Wednesday that Saudi investments into Iran could happen “very quickly” following an agreement to restore diplomatic ties.

    “There are a lot of opportunities for Saudi investments in Iran. We don’t see impediments as long as the terms of any agreement would be respected,” Al-Jadaan said during the Financial Sector Conference in Riyadh.

    Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed on Friday to re-establish relations and re-open embassies within two months after years of hostility, following talks in China.

    “Stability in the region is very important, for the world and for the countries in the region, and we have always said that Iran is our neighbour and we have no interest to have a conflict with our neighbours, if they are willing to cooperate,” Al-Jadaan later told Reuters in an interview.

    The hostility between the two Middle Eastern powers had endangered the stability and security of the Middle East and helped fuel regional conflicts including in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.

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    “We have no reason not to invest in Iran, and we have no reason not to allow them to invest in Saudi Arabia. It is in our interest to make sure that both nations benefit from each others resources and competitive advantage,” Al-Jadaan told Reuters.

    “If they (Iran) are willing to go through this process, then we are more than willing to go through this process and show them they are welcome and we would be more than happy to participate in their development,” he said.

    CHINESE LEVERAGE

    The deal, brokered by China, was announced after four days of previously undisclosed talks in Beijing between top security officials from Saudi Arabia and Iran.

    China has leverage on Iran and Tehran will find it difficult to explain if it does not honour the agreement signed with Saudi Arabia in Beijing, another Saudi official told reporters, separately, on Wednesday.

    The official, who declined to be named, said China is in a unique position as it enjoys exceptional relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia.

    “China is the first trading partner for both countries so the leverage is very important in that regard. And since we are building confidence, that commitment should be made with the presence of Chinese officials,” he said.

    Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran in 2016 after its embassy in Tehran was stormed during a dispute between the two countries over Riyadh’s execution of a prominent Shi’ite Muslim cleric.

    The kingdom also has blamed Iran for missile and drone attacks on its oil facilities in 2019 as well as attacks on tankers in Gulf waters. Iran denied the charges.

    The most difficult topics in the talks with Iran were related to Yemen, the media, and China’s role, the official said without elaborating.

    Both sides have agreed to re-activate a 2001 security agreement, which covers cooperation in fighting drugs, smuggling and organised crime, as well as another earlier pact on trade, economy and investment.

    “Resuming diplomatic relations does not mean we are allies… Diplomatic relations are the norm for Saudi Arabia, and we should have them with everybody,” the official said.

    Additional reporting by Aziz El Yaakoubi; Writing by Clauda Tanios and Hadeel Al Sayegh; Editing by Christopher Cushing, Jon Boyle and Andrea Ricci

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • China sets modest growth target of about 5% as parliament opens

    China sets modest growth target of about 5% as parliament opens

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    • GDP target around 5% at low end of expectations
    • Work report focuses on consumption, jobs
    • Defence spending to rise 7.2%, up from 7.1% rise
    • Budget deficit target at 3%, wider than previous 2.8%

    BEIJING, March 5 (Reuters) – China set a modest target for economic growth this year of around 5% on Sunday as it kicked-off the annual session of its National People’s Congress (NPC), which is poised to implement the biggest government shake-up in a decade.

    China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by just 3% last year, one of its worst showings in decades, squeezed by three years of COVID-19 restrictions, crisis in its vast property sector, a crackdown on private enterprise and weakening demand for Chinese exports.

    In his work report, outgoing Premier Li Keqiang stressed the need for economic stability and expanding consumption, setting a goal to create around 12 million urban jobs this year, up from last year’s target of at least 11 million, and warned that risks remain in the real estate sector.

    Li set a budget deficit target at 3.0% of GDP, widening from a goal of around 2.8% last year.

    “We should give priority to the recovery and expansion of consumption,” said Li, who spoke for just under an hour in a speech to open the parliament, which will run through March 13.

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    “The incomes of urban and rural residents should be boosted through multiple channels. We should stabilize spending on big-ticket items and promote recovery in consumption of consumer services,” he said.

    This year’s growth target of around 5% was at the low end of expectations, as policy sources had recently told Reuters a range as high as 6% could be set. It is also below last year’s target of around 5.5%.

    “While the official growth target has been lowered for the second consecutive year, which might be a disappointment to the market, we reckon investors (should) pay attention to the underlying growth momentum to gauge the recovery pace,” said Zhou Hao, economist at Guotai Junan International.

    Li and a slate of more reform-oriented economic policy officials are set to retire during the congress, making way for loyalists to President Xi Jinping, who further tightened his grip on power when he secured a precedent-breaking third leadership term at October’s Communist Party Congress.

    During the NPC, former Shanghai party chief Li Qiang, a longtime Xi ally, is expected to be confirmed as premier, tasked with reinvigorating the world’s second-largest economy.

    The rubber-stamp parliament will also discuss Xi’s plans for an “intensive” and “wide-ranging” reorganisation of state and Communist Party entities, state media reported on Tuesday, with analysts expecting a further deepening of Communist Party penetration of state bodies.

    MILITARY BUDGET RISE

    Li said China’s armed forces should devote greater energy to training under combat conditions and boost combat preparedness, and the budget included a 7.2% increase in defence spending this year, a slightly bigger increase than last year’s budgeted 7.1% rise and again exceeding expected GDP growth.

    On Taiwan, Li struck a moderate tone, saying China should promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations and advance the process of China’s “peaceful reunification”, but also take resolute steps to oppose Taiwan independence.

    Beijing faces a host of challenges including increasingly fraught relations with the United States and a worsening demographic outlook, with plunging birth rates and a population drop last year for the first time since the famine year of 1961.

    China plans to lower the costs of childbirth, childcare and education and will actively respond to an ageing population and a decrease in fertility, the nation’s state planner said in a work report released on Sunday.

    The NPC opened on a smoggy day amid tight security in the Chinese capital, with 2,948 delegates gathered in the cavernous Great Hall of the People on the west side of Tiananmen Square.

    During the session, China’s legislature will vote on a plan to reform institutions under the State Council, or cabinet, and decide on a new cabinet line-up for the next five years, according to a meeting agenda.

    It is the first NPC meeting since China abruptly dropped its zero-COVID policy in December, following rare nationwide protests. Excluding the pandemic-shortened meetings of the previous three years, this year’s session will be the shortest in at least 40 years, according to NPC Observer, a blog.

    Additional reporting by the Beijing newsrooom; Writing by Tony Munroe; Editing by Himani Sarkar, William Mallard and Simon Cameron-Moore

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Canada’s deep yield curve inversion adds to BoC rate hike dilemma

    Canada’s deep yield curve inversion adds to BoC rate hike dilemma

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    TORONTO, Dec 4 (Reuters) – As the Bank of Canada considers ditching oversized interest rate hikes, it is dealing with an economy likely more overheated than previously thought but also the bond market’s clearest signal yet that recession and lower inflation lie ahead.

    Canada’s central bank says that the economy needs to slow from overheated levels in order to ease inflation. If its tightening campaign overshoots to achieve that objective it could trigger a deeper downturn than expected.

    The bond market could be flagging that risk. The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond has fallen nearly 100 basis points below the 2-year yield, marking the biggest inversion of Canada’s yield curve in Refinitiv data going back to 1994 and deeper than the U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion.

    Some analysts see curve inversions as predictors of recessions. Canada’s economy is likely to be particularly sensitive to higher rates after Canadians borrowed heavily during the COVID-19 pandemic to participate in a red-hot housing market.

    “Markets think the Canadian economy is about to suffer a triple blow as domestic consumption collapses, U.S. demand weakens and global commodity prices drop,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay.

    The BoC has opened the door to slowing the pace of rate increases to a quarter of a percentage point following multiple oversized hikes in recent months that lifted the benchmark rate to 3.75%, its highest since 2008.

    Money markets are betting on a 25-basis-point increase when the bank meets to set policy on Wednesday, but a slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll expect a larger move.

    RESILIENT ECONOMY

    Canada’s employment report for November showed that the labour market remains tight, while gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the third quarter.

    That’s much stronger than the 1.5% pace forecast by the BoC and together with upward revisions to historical growth could indicate that demand has moved further ahead of supply, economists say.

    But they also say that the details of the third-quarter GDP data, including a contraction in domestic demand, and a preliminary report showing no growth in October are signs that higher borrowing costs have begun to impact activity.

    The BoC has forecast that growth would stall from the fourth quarter of this year through the middle of 2023.

    The depth of Canada’s curve inversion is signaling a “bad recession” not a mild one, said David Rosenberg, chief economist & strategist at Rosenberg Research.

    It reflects greater risk to the outlook in Canada than the United States due to “a more inflated residential real estate market and consumer debt bubble,” Rosenberg said.

    Inflation is likely to be more persistent after it spread from goods prices to services and wages, where higher costs can become more entrenched. Still, 3-month measures of underlying inflation that are closely watched by the BoC – CPI-median and CPI-trim – show price pressures easing.

    They fell to an average of 2.75% in October, according to estimates by Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics. That’s well below more commonly used 12-month rates.

    “The yield curve would not invert to this extent unless investors also believed that inflation will drop back down toward the Bank’s target,” said Brown.

    Like the Federal Reserve, the BoC has a 2% target for inflation.

    “The curve is telling us the Bank of Canada will be forced into a reversal by late 2023, with rates remaining depressed for years to come,” Corpay’s Schamotta said.

    Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Andrea Ricci

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Consumer inflation in Japan’s capital rises at fastest pace in 40 years

    Consumer inflation in Japan’s capital rises at fastest pace in 40 years

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    • Tokyo Nov core CPI up 3.6% vs f’cast +3.5%
    • Tokyo CPI stays above BOJ’s 2% target for 6th straight month
    • Data underscores broadening inflationary pressure

    TOKYO, Nov 25 (Reuters) – Core consumer prices in Japan’s capital, a leading indicator of nationwide trends, rose at their fastest annual pace in 40 years in November and exceeded the central bank’s 2% target for a sixth straight month, signalling broadening inflationary pressure.

    The increase, driven mostly by food and fuel bills but spreading to a broader range of goods, cast doubt on the view of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) that recent cost-push inflation will prove transitory, some analysts said.

    The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food but includes fuel, was 3.6% higher in November than a year earlier, government data showed on Friday. The rise exceeded a median market forecast of 3.5% and the 3.4% increase seen in October

    The last time Tokyo inflation was faster was April 1982, when the core CPI was 4.2% higher than a year before.

    While the rise was driven mostly by electricity bills and food prices, companies were also charging more for durable goods as the weak yen pushed up the cost of imports, the data showed.

    “Price hikes are broadening and suggests the weak yen could keep inflation elevated well into next year,” said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities.

    “Core consumer inflation may stay around the BOJ’s 2% target for much of next year, which would make it hard for the bank to keep arguing that the price rises are temporary.”

    The Tokyo core-core CPI index, which excludes fuel as well as fresh food, was 2.5% higher in November than a year earlier, picking up from the 2.2% annual gain seen in October.

    BOJ AN OUTLIER

    The BOJ has kept interest rates ultra-low on the view that inflation will slow back below its target next year when the boost from fuel price gains dissipate. The central bank has therefore remained an outlier from a wave monetary tightening around the world aimed at combating soaring inflation.

    Contrary to the experience of some western economies, where wages have surged with inflation, growth in wages and services prices remain muted in Japan.

    Of the components making up the Tokyo CPI data, services prices in November were up just 0.7% on a year earlier, after a 0.8% annual increase seen in October. That compared with a 7.7% spike in durable goods prices for November, which followed October’s 7.0% annual gain.

    Separate data released by the BOJ on Friday showed the corporate service price index, which measures prices that firms charge each other for services, had been 1.8% higher in October than a year earlier. That was slower than a 2.1% annual gain seen in September.

    BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has repeatedly said that, for inflation to sustainably hit his 2% inflation target, wages must rise enough to offset the rise in goods prices.

    Slow wage growth has been among factors delaying Japan’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. The world’s third-largest economy unexpectedly shrank an annualised 1.2% in the third quarter, partly because of soft consumption.

    The Tokyo CPI data heightens the chance of further rises in nationwide core consumer prices, which in October were 3.6% higher than a year earlier, also marking a 40-year high. The nationwide data for November is scheduled for release on Dec. 23.

    Reporting by Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara; Editing by Sam Holmes and Bradley Perrett

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of U.S. dollars

    Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of U.S. dollars

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    ACCRA, Nov 24 (Reuters) – Ghana’s government is working on a new policy to buy oil products with gold rather than U.S. dollar reserves, Vice-President Mahamudu Bawumia said on Facebook on Thursday.

    The move is meant to tackle dwindling foreign currency reserves coupled with demand for dollars by oil importers, which is weakening the local cedi and increasing living costs.

    Ghana’s Gross International Reserves stood at around $6.6 billion at the end of September 2022, equating to less than three months of imports cover. That is down from around $9.7 billion at the end of last year, according to the government.

    If implemented as planned for the first quarter of 2023, the new policy “will fundamentally change our balance of payments and significantly reduce the persistent depreciation of our currency,” Bawumia said.

    Using gold would prevent the exchange rate from directly impacting fuel or utility prices as domestic sellers would no longer need foreign exchange to import oil products, he explained.

    “The barter of gold for oil represents a major structural change,” he added.

    The proposed policy is uncommon. While countries sometimes trade oil for other goods or commodities, such deals typically involve an oil-producing nation receiving non-oil goods rather than the opposite.

    Ghana produces crude oil but it has relied on imports for refined oil products since its only refinery shut down after an explosion in 2017.

    Bawumia’s announcement was posted as Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta announced measures to cut spending and boost revenues in a bid to tackle a spiraling debt crisis.

    In a 2023 budget presentation to parliament on Thursday, Ofori-Atta warned the West African nation was at high risk of debt distress and that the cedi’s depreciation was seriously affecting Ghana’s ability to manage its public debt.

    The government is negotiating a relief package with the International Monetary Fund as the cocoa, gold and oil-producing nation faces its worst economic crisis in a generation.

    Reporting by Cooper Inveen and Christian Akorlie
    Writing by Sofia Christensen
    Editing by Estelle Shirbon and Elaine Hardcastle

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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