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Agricultural experts have long predicted that climate change would exacerbate world hunger, as shifting precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures make many areas of the world unsuitable for crops. Now, new research suggests a warming planet is already increasing the price of food and could sharply drive up inflation in the years to come.
A working paper by researchers at the European Central Bank and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research analyzed historic price fluctuations along with climate data to figure out how that has affected inflation in the past, and what those effects mean for a warming world.
The upshot: Climate change has already pushed up food prices and inflation over all, the researchers found. Looking ahead, meanwhile, continued global warming is projected to increase food prices between 0.6 and 3.2 percentage points by 2060, according to the report.
To be sure, where inflation will fall within that range will depend on how much humanity can curtail emissions and curb the damage from climate change. But even in a best-case scenario in which the entire world meets Paris Agreement climate targets, researchers expect food inflation to rise.
“[I]nflation goes up when temperatures rise, and it does so most strongly in summer and in hot regions at lower latitudes, for example the global south,” Maximilian Kotz, the paper’s first author and a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said in a statement.
Global warming affects crops in several ways. Yields of corn, a staple crop in many warm countries, fall dramatically after the temperature reaches about 86 degrees Fahrenheit. A 2021 study by NASA researchers found that global corn yields could drop by 24% by the end of the century. Rice and soybeans — used mostly for animal feed — would also drop but less precipitously, according to a recent report from the Environmental Defense Fund said.
Poor countries feel the effects of high prices more, but all nations will be affected by climate-fueled inflation, the researchers said.
In just over a decade, inflation is projected to increase U.S. food prices by 0.4 to 2.6 percentage points in a best-case scenario in which emissions are lowered, Kotz told CBS MoneyWatch in an email. In a high-emission scenario, the inflation impact could be as high as 3.3 percentage points by 2035, and up to 7 percentage points in 2060.
“Impacts from other factors such as recessions, wars, policy, etc., may obviously make the actual future inflation rates different, but these are the magnitudes of pressure which global warming will cause, based on how we have seen inflation behave in the past,” he said.
In the two decades before the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. food prices rose about 2% to 3% a year, although annual food inflation surged to 11% last summer. In other words, a 3% jump in food prices from climate change is a significant hit for nations like the U.S. that strive to keep the annual rate of inflation at about 2%.
In the European Union, climate change is already pushing up food costs, the researchers found. Last summer, repeated heat waves dried up the continent’s rivers, snarling major shipping routes and devastating farmland.
The resulting crop failures in Europe have occurred at the same time that Russia’s war in Ukraine has driven up the price of wheat. Weather extremes pushed up European food prices by an additional 0.67 percentage points, the researchers found. In Italy, the rising cost of staples has caused the price of pasta to soar.
“The heat extremes of the 2022 summer in Europe is a prominent example in which combined heat and drought had widespread impacts on agricultural and economic activity,” they wrote.
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An Indian official has been suspended from his job for wasting hundreds of thousands of gallons of water after ordering a reservoir drained in a bid to find his cellphone.
Rajesh Vishwas, a food inspector with the Chhattisgarh state government, dropped his phone in the Paralkot reservoir — a scenic spot in central India — last weekend as he tried to take a selfie.
He first sent divers into the reservoir, but when they failed to find his $1,200 Samsung phone, he ordered the entire reservoir drained.
It took diesel-run pumps more than three days to drain the roughly 530,000 gallons of water from the reservoir. They found his phone at the bottom, but to Vishwas’ disappointment, it had stopped working.
The officer claimed his phone contained sensitive government information and that he had permission to drain the reservoir. But the state government said no such permission was granted and accused him of misusing his position and wasting fresh water at a time when it’s sorely needed.
Parts of north and central India are currently facing a heat wave, resulting in water shortages for millions of people.
The water Vishwas ordered pumped out of the reservoir would have been used for irrigating farm fields.
Seeking to defend himself, Vishwas claimed the water was “wastewater unfit for irrigation,” and that “no farmer was affected” by his action.
His suspension was to remain in place pending a full investigation.
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Newswise — Weather and climate are important factors affecting economic and social development. In China, the country’s National Climate Center releases an annual climate report that comprehensively covers China’s achievements and progress that year in climate system monitoring, climate impact assessment, and other aspects. This series of reports has been published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters for five consecutive years since 2019, and the “State of China’s climate in 2022” is now available.
This year’s report provides a comprehensive summary of the main climate characteristics and high-impact weather and climate events in China in 2022. As introduced by Director Li Wei of the Climate Service Office of the National Climate Center, in 2022, the overall climate condition in China was worse than normal, presenting a warm–dry climate with the second highest annual mean temperature in history. The annual precipitation was the lowest recorded since 2012. The number of hot days and extreme high temperature events were both the highest in history, while the national average number of rainy days was the lowest. The precipitation in summer and autumn was less than normal. The average precipitation in summer was the second lowest since 1961. In summer, Northeast and North China had more rainfall during the flood season, while the Yangtze River Basin had less, resulting in extreme heatwaves and severe droughts.
In 2022, there was an apparent stepwise feature of drought regionally, with southern China heavily affected by long droughts in summer and autumn. Rainstorm processes occurred frequently, especially over the Pearl River Basin and the Songliao River Basin, causing severe flooding disasters in South China and Northeast China. In summer, the strongest heatwave since 1961 occurred in central and eastern China. Persistent cold, rainy, snowy, and sunless weather was observed in southern China in February, and a strong cold wave from late November to early December caused severe cooling over a large area. Sandstorm weather appeared less frequently and later than normal, and landfalling typhoons were extremely less frequent.
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Newswise — A new computer modeling technique developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) offers the potential to generate months-ahead summertime drought forecasts across the Western United States with the capability of differentiating between dry conditions at locations just a couple of miles apart.
The technique uses statistical methods and machine learning to analyze key drought indicators during the winter and spring and correlate them with the likelihood of dryness throughout the landscape the following summer. The scientists say this approach, if adapted for use by forecasters, could provide important information for such priorities as management of water resources, wildland fire and fuels, and agriculture.
“This approach forecasts drought conditions before they have the largest impact,” said NCAR scientist Ronnie Abolafia-Rosenzweig, the lead author of a new paper describing the technique. “It gives managers an additional tool that they can use to prepare and guide the decisions they are making.”
Abolafia-Rosenzweig and his co-authors found that predictions issued one to three months in advance could correctly identify the occurrence of summer drought in about 81-94% of cases at a resolution of 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) across the rugged and often parched western third of the United States. The predictions proved most accurate in regions of persistent drought, showing how upcoming dry conditions may vary from a cultivated field to a nearby mountainside or forested area. In regions where dry spells were punctuated by periods of heavy summer precipitation, however, the predictions proved less accurate.
The scientists detailed their findings in a recent article in Water Resources Research, a journal published by the American Geophysical Union. The research was funded by NOAA, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. National Science Foundation, which sponsors NCAR.
Strengthening societal resilience
Droughts can have devastating health and economic impacts, costing the United States at least $249 billion since 1980 and setting the stage for widespread fires. In the West, the period from 2000-2021 was the driest 22-year stretch since at least the year 800, according to tree ring data. In 2021 alone, the drought and associated heat waves led to hundreds of deaths in the region.
To strengthen societal resilience, scientists are working to improve computer modeling techniques that produce months-ahead predictions of drought. Current drought forecasts, however, have a relatively coarse resolution of, at best, about 10 kilometers, which does not adequately capture the varying degrees of drying across different landscape features in the West.
But a new dataset that NCAR scientists recently produced in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey helped open the way for more detailed drought forecasts. The dataset is named CONUS404 because it contains simulations of hydrological and climate conditions at 4-kilometer resolution across the continental United States (or CONUS) over the past 40-plus years. Abolafia-Rosenzweig and his co-authors also drew on an equally high-resolution U.S. Department of Agriculture dataset, known as PRISM (Parameter elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model) for meteorological observations.
These datasets enabled the scientists to identify complex relationships, at a 4-kilometer resolution, between climate and drought conditions in late fall and winter and the extent of drying during the following summer. To identify these relationships, they used machine learning techniques that trained specialized statistical models.
The scientists focused on pre-summer climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity, as well as distant ocean-atmosphere patterns such as the Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation that have far-reaching effects on climate. They found that commonly used drought measures, the Palmer Drought Severity Index and Soil Moisture Percentiles, have strong persistence from winter and spring into the summer, making pre-summer drought severity an especially important predictor of summer drought conditions.
Abolafia-Rosenzweig said the drought forecasting method can augment a fire prediction technique that he and his co-authors had developed last year. Combining the drought and fire models offers the potential for a very detailed look at fire hazard across the West.
“The West is in a very unique period in terms of both drought and fire with records being broken that go back thousands of years,” he said. “The climate projections are showing drought conditions will continue to intensify in the future. Having tools that can better inform management is becoming increasingly important.”
This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation and managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
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Newswise — AMHERST, Mass. – Researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst recently published a study in the journal PLOS Water that focuses on the Sudbury-Assabet and Concord watershed in eastern Massachusetts, and which links hydrological changes, including floods, drought and runoff, to changing patterns of land use.
“We all live in a watershed” says Timothy Randhir, professor of environmental conservation at UMass Amherst and the paper’s senior author. “We’re constantly modifying our landscape, turning what were once forests into roads, parking lots and backyards. We’re changing the landscape from one that was once hydrologically resilient to one that pushes water downstream.”
But it can be hard to see the complex links between changes in land use and changes in the hydrological cycle. For instance, much of Massachusetts is now subject to the paradoxical situation in which summer drought follows spring flooding. Surely if there’s enough extra water to flood the streets in towns throughout the state then there should be plenty of groundwater left for drinking, lawn watering and maintaining the levels of streams and lakes?
This is where thinking like a watershed comes in. “Every drop of rain has two pathways when it falls,” says Randhir. “It can either run off the land into a stream, or it can infiltrate the soil and slowly trickle down to the water table.” But by paving over large swaths of land, burying swamps and wetlands and channelizing rivers, we have made it far more difficult for rain to infiltrate the soil, increasing the likelihood of drought. At the same time, all that runoff pours into streams and rivers, which in turn grows into a deluge as it thunders downstream, fed by even more runoff as it progresses.
To make the links between land use and hydrological effect visible, and to project these effects into the future, Randhir and his graduate student, first author Ammara Talib, focused on the Sudbury-Assabet and Concord watershed in eastern Massachusetts, an area that incorporates both rural areas and suburbs of Boston. The pair fed historical data describing the changing land-use into a model which projected the trends for the years 2035, 2065 and 2100. The team then fed the results of the land-use model into a hydological model called the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN.
What they found was that, by 2100, the total forested area will decrease by 51% and impervious areas (roads and parking lots) will increase 75%. These changes will increase annual stream flow by 3%, while runoff will grow by a whopping 69% annually. All this increased runoff will mean more topsoil and other solids in the water (an increase of 54%), and 12% and 13% increases in phosphorous and nitrogen concentrations, respectively.
But none of this need happen.
“We can plan for the future on the watershed scale,” says Randhir, by urban planning that implements best practices for sustainable and site-specific land-use measures. These can include creating rain gardens, using permeable pavement in large parking lots and employing vegetated swales to slow the runoff.
“The watershed is a signature of the health of the landscape,” says Randhir. “The quality of life in any particular landscape depends on how the watershed is functioning.”
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Corcoran, California — California’s Central Valley produces a quarter of the nation’s food, but a parade of atmospheric rivers this winter caused severe storms that destroyed thousands of acres of crops.
The storms, which have been linked to climate change, swamped 150,000 acres in the region, according to numbers from Kings County officials.
About 99% of the nation’s pistachio supply is grown in Central California, per data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Pistachio farmer Nader Malakan estimates that about 1,200 acres of pistachio crops were destroyed, to the tune of $15 million.
“It’s going to hurt,” he told CBS News. “It’s a lot of money.”
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The flood damage in Kings County this winter is estimated to have caused $1 billion in losses, county officials said.
Perched outside Corcoran, Tulare Lake, which was drained a century ago — and still didn’t even exist a few months ago — has returned with a vengeance and looks like an ocean. In the mountains above, one of California’s largest snowpacks on record is starting to melt. According to forecasters, high temperatures in the coming weeks could prove catastrophic.
“You kind of get an overwhelming sense of doom in a way,” said Lakeshore Dairy farmer Brandon Goedhardt. “How do you stop this?”
In March, flooding forced thousands of people to evacuate the Northern California agricultural community of Pajaro, after the Pajaro River’s levee was breached.
Goedhardt and other farmers are using massive piles of dirt to reinforce and add onto a nearly 15-mile-long levee designed to hold back the rising tide. While the farmers said they are receiving some assistance from FEMA agents on the ground, they are the ones footing the bill.
Goedhardt said there is nowhere safe enough, or large enough, to move his barn of cows.
Kings County Supervisor Doug Verbund said crews will finish the levee before the next major melt, but there is no guarantee it will hold.
“Mother Nature is in control,” Verbund said. “We’re just, you know, tying to put our finger in the dike as we go.”
Goedhardt said it is all hands on deck this week, but their hearts are sinking.
“We’re a family farm,” Goedhardt said. “You know the families have been doing this for generations, and I’d hate to be the one at the wheel, and we lose it all.”
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After historic levels of rain and snow this winter season, California expects to fill 100% of water requests from cities and farms for the first time since 2006, the state Department of Water Resources announced Thursday.
Because the state’s reservoirs have nearly reached capacity, and the snowpack is beginning to melt, any contractor who needs water, and has the ability to store it, can have it, the department said.
“Water supply conditions and careful management of reservoir operations during this extreme winter allows DWR to maximize water deliveries while enhancing protections for the environment,” said DWR Director Karla Nemeth. “DWR is moving and storing as much water as possible to the benefit of communities, agriculture, and the environment.”
The water supply will be delivered through the State Water Project’s 29 agencies, which serve 27 million Californians and 750,000 acres of farmland.
The percentage of water allocation is determined monthly by the State Water Project based on the latest snow survey data, reservoir storage and spring runoff forecasts. The 100% forecasted allocation announced Thursday is based upon data from April.
Last month, the U.S. Drought Monitor found that much of the state is free of drought and abnormal dryness.
While this water allocation forecast is good news for cities and farmland across the state, Northern California is still struggling with its groundwater supply, the Department of Water Resources said.
“Several water supply challenges remain in the northern part of the state and in over-drafted groundwater basins that are slow to recover,” the department said. “Millions of Californians rely on groundwater supplies as a sole source of water.”
The announcement added that the dire state of the Colorado River Basin, which is a “critical water source for Southern California,” is in the middle of a 23-year drought.
“Californians should continue to use water wisely to help the state adapt to a hotter, drier future.”
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A federal regulatory group voted Thursday to officially close king salmon fishing season along much of the West Coast after near-record low numbers of the fish, also known as chinook, returned to California’s rivers last year.
The Pacific Fishery Management Council approved the closure of the 2023 season for all commercial and most recreational chinook fishing along the coast from Cape Falcon in northern Oregon to the California-Mexico border. Limited recreational salmon fishing will be allowed off Southern Oregon in the fall.
“The forecasts for Chinook returning to California rivers this year are near record lows,” Council Chair Marc Gorelnik said after the vote in a news release. “The poor conditions in the freshwater environment that contributed to these low forecasted returns are unfortunately not something that the Council can, or has authority to, control.”
California had already last month issued a salmon fishing ban for the remainder of the season. According to CBS Bay Area, it marked only the second time in state history that California had canceled its salmon fishing season, with the last ban taking place between 2008 and 2009, also due to drought conditions.
Biologists say the chinook salmon population has declined dramatically after years of drought. Many in the fishing industry say Trump-era rules that allowed more water to be diverted from the Sacramento River Basin to agriculture caused even more harm.
Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
The closure applies to adult fall-run chinook and deals a blow to the Pacific Northwest’s salmon fishing industry.
Much of the salmon caught off Oregon originate in California’s Klamath and Sacramento rivers. After hatching in freshwater, they spend three years on average maturing in the Pacific, where many are snagged by commercial fishermen, before migrating back to their spawning grounds, where conditions are more ideal to give birth. After laying eggs, they die.
The council is an advisory group to the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, which makes the final decision, but historically has followed the council’s rulings. The secretary’s decision will be posted in the Federal Register within days.
Experts fear native California salmon are in a spiral toward extinction. Already California’s spring-run chinook are listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, while winter-run chinook are endangered along with the Central California Coast coho salmon, which has been off-limits to California commercial fishers since the 1990s.
Recreational fishing is expected to be allowed in Oregon only for coho salmon during the summer and for chinook after Sept. 1. Salmon season is expected to open as usual north of Cape Falcon, including in the Columbia River and off Washington’s coast.
Though the closure will affect tens of thousands of jobs, few are opposed to it. Many fishers say they want to take action now to guarantee healthy stocks in the future.
They hope the unusually wet winter in California that has mostly freed the state of drought will bring relief. An unprecedented series of powerful storms has replenished most of California’s reservoirs, dumping record amounts of rain and snow and busting a severe three-year drought. But too much water running through the rivers could kills eggs and young hatchlings.
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Officials in California have issued a ban on salmon fishing anywhere along the state’s coast for the remainder of the season, as the state’s yearslong drought is still taking its toll on the once-abundant fish population.
In a recent announcement, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife said salmon fisheries that were originally scheduled to open on April 1 would remain closed through May 15. The decision came as part of a broader effort, involving state agencies in Oregon as well as the National Marine Fisheries Service, to cancel ocean salmon fishing along much of the coast — from Cape Falcon, Oregon, to the U.S.-Mexico border.
For California, the ban aims to protect the Chinook species of salmon, which previously inhabited several of the state’s largest rivers and in recent years have been seen in dwindling numbers.
Thanks to multiple atmospheric river storms in California, rivers on land are roaring but the effects of years of drought are now being seen on the salmon population, CBS San Francisco reported. Last year, just 60,000 of the adult fish returned to the Sacramento River to spawn, officials said. This was a small fraction of the 196,000 fish expected there, and approached a record annual low for the area, according to the fish and wildlife department. Officials are also hoping that the fishing ban will prevent the Chinook population from decreasing further in the Klamath River, which is also threatened.
Photo by Kimberly White/Getty Images
The Pacific Fishery Management Council has proposed additional policies to regulate salmon fishing off the coast of California through the spring of 2024, wildlife officials said. The proposals, which would ban commercial and ocean salmon sport fishing until April of next year, were approved by the council for public review at the end of last week.
This is the second time in history that California has canceled fishing season, CBS San Francisco reported, with the last ban taking place between 2008 and 2009 in response to another prolonged drough period.
“Fishery managers have determined that there simply aren’t enough salmon in the ocean right now to comfortably get a return of adult salmon to reproduce for 2023,” said John McManus, president of the Golden State Salmon Association, in comments to CBS San Francisco.
Jared Davis, who operates a charter boat for sport fishermen, told the station his entire summer has been wiped out.
“It’s devastating,” he told the station. “This is more than just an income issue for me. It’s an inability to do what I love. So, on a financial level and on a personal level, it’s devastating.”
Dwindling marine life populations prompted wildlife officials in Alaska to cancel the winter snow crab season in the Bering Sea near the end of last year. It was a first in the state’s history.
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U.S. first lady Jill Biden got an up-close look Sunday at the historic East Africa drought as she walked along arid land and listened as some Maasai women described how their children and livestock are going hungry. She appealed for more countries to join the United States to help alleviate the suffering.
Some areas of the Horn of Africa have endured five consecutive failed rainy seasons, meaning there was no rainfall or an insufficient amount to help farmers with their crops and livestock. An upcoming sixth rainy season, beginning in March, is expected to be about the same or worse.
Biden, who was on the final day of a five-day visit to Africa, toured an outreach center in the town operated by World Vision with support from UNICEF and the World Food Program. She chatted with people who had brought their children to be screened for malnutrition and she participated in a discussion with a group of women, including a mother of 10 children, who shared their stories.
“They talked about how their livestock are dying. Obviously, you can see the drought here, how bad it is,” the first lady told reporters afterward. “The one source of water here feeds 12 villages and each village has approximately a thousand to 1,200 people.”
“So they are coming here, the people are coming to get water, they’re bringing their livestock to get water. But unfortunately, for many of them, the way they make their living is from their livestock and for most of them, the livestock are dying, so they’re having a hard time,” she said.
Brian Inganga / AP
Biden noted that the United States has provided 70% of the money sent to the region to help alleviate the suffering, “but we cannot be the only ones.”
“We need to have other countries join us in this global effort to help these people of the region,” she said, adding that the drought was competing with humanitarian efforts tied to Russian’s war in Ukraine and an earthquake that killed tens of thousands of people in Turkey and Syria.
“I mean, there are a lot of competing interests but, obviously here, people are actually, livestock, people are starving,” she said.
Members of the Maasai community, who are predominantly herders, live in Kajiado county where Biden visited.
Nearly 23 million people in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya are thought to be highly food insecure, which means they do not know where they will find their next meal, according to a food security working group chaired by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development.
A Maasai elder, Mingati Samanya, 69, said he lost 10 cows during the recent prolonged dry season and struggled to find hay for the rest of his herd.
“The short rains last year were insufficient and right now we are back to struggling for pasture. We hope the long rains will be enough,” he told The Associated Press in a telephone interview.
Biden sought to use her stature to help focus the world’s attention on the worsening humanitarian crisis in East Africa by touring the drought-stricken area near Kenya’s border with Tanzania.
On the nearly three-hour drive south of Nairobi, the capital, Biden’s lengthy motorcade passed over dry river and creek beds. Numerous cows were walking alongside the highway — many so thin that their ribs were showing.
Throngs of people lined both sides of the motorcade route at various points, waving or using their cellphones to record the event.
Some 4.4 million people in Kenya are facing high levels of food insecurity, with the number projected to rise to 5.4 million in March, according to an analysis by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification.
Already, 11 million livestock that are essential to many families’ health and livelihood have died. Many of the people affected are farmers who have watched their crops wither and die, and their water sources run dry.
Northern Kenya, which is arid and semi-arid and is where pastoralist communities live, is most affected.
The country’s agriculture sector heavily relies on rainfall, and the meteorological department is predicting delayed rains in the upcoming short rainy season that should begin in March.
President William Ruto announced last October that his cabinet had lifted a decade-old ban on openly cultivating and importing genetically modified crops. The decision came amid pressure from the U.S. government, which had argued that the ban affected U.S. agricultural exports and food aid.
Last week, Ruto led the country in praying for rain.
The first lady has been highlighting the drought along with women and youth empowerment since arriving in Namibia last Wednesday.
Biden had visited Kenya in 2011, when her husband, Joe Biden, was serving as vice president, to help raise awareness about what then was considered a severe famine. U.S. officials and aid organizations say the current drought is far worse.
About halfway through drive to Lositeti, the first lady traded her black SUV for a smaller one more suited for the rugged terrain ahead. The village was the final stop on a five-day, two-country visit that took her from Namibia, along the Atlantic coast in southern Africa, to Kenya in the east.
It was her sixth visit overall to Africa, and her first as first lady. She traveled with her granddaughter, Naomi Biden, who is 29.
Biden met throughout the week with young people, women and entrepreneurs as she promoted U.S.- backed programs that teach about HIV/AIDS, preventing infection and safe sex practices. Other programs she visited help people learn skills to find jobs or start businesses to support their families.
Along the way, she managed to make some news with her comments in an interview with the AP in which she gave the strongest indication yet that her husband will seek to be reelected in 2024.
Asked if the only thing left to do was to decide on when and where to announce the campaign, she replied, “Pretty much.”
The president, who later was asked about his wife’s comments, offered a more measured response, saying he had “other things to finish before I get into a full-blown campaign.”
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Below-normal rainfall is expected during the rainy season over the next three months in parts of Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia, a climate research centre says.
Drought trends in the Horn of Africa are now worse than they were during the 2011 famine in which hundreds of thousands of people died.
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center said on Wednesday that below-normal rainfall is expected during the rainy season over the next three months.
“In parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Uganda that have been most affected by the recent drought, this could be the 6th failed consecutive rainfall season,” it said.
Drier than normal conditions have also increased in parts of Burundi, eastern Tanzania, Rwanda and western South Sudan, the centre added.
While famine thresholds have not been reached, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Wednesday that 8.3 million people – more than half Somalia’s population – will need humanitarian assistance this year.
Workneh Gebeyehu, the head of IGAD, urged governments and partners to act “before it’s too late”.
The drought, the longest on record in Somalia, has lasted almost three years and tens of thousands of people have died.
Last month, the UN resident coordinator for Somalia warned excess deaths in the country will “almost certainly” surpass those of the famine declared in the country in 2011, when more than 260,000 people died of starvation.
About 1.3 million people, 80 percent women and children, have been internally displaced in Somalia by the drought sweeping the Horn of Africa. After five consecutive poor rainy seasons, the ongoing drought has already become the longest and most severe in Somalia’s recent history.
Close to 23 million people are thought to be highly food insecure in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, according to a food security working group chaired by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development.
Already 11 million livestock that are essential to many families’ health and wealth have died, Wednesday’s statement said. Many people affected across the region are pastoralists or farmers who have watched crops wither and water sources run dry.
The war in Ukraine has affected the humanitarian response, as traditional donors in Europe divert funding for the crisis closer to home.
“These prolonged and recurrent climate change-induced droughts will further worsen other existing, mutually exacerbating humanitarian challenges in the region, including the ongoing hunger crisis, the impacts of COVID-19, and internal displacement.
“We need an all-hands-on-deck approach to strengthen food systems, livelihoods, and climate resilience,” said Mohammed Mukhier, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies director for Africa.
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Venice, Italy, is known for its intricate system of canals, which are famously navigated by gondolas and water taxis.
But a series of unfortunate weather conditions have left many of these canals low and dry.
Great opportunity to dredge & clean the canals and repair infrastructure. This is usually a complicated & messy task but will be easier with the water levels temporarily #AcquaBassa. Check out where the relative water level once was. pic.twitter.com/maeHJEY6L7
— Nate Cochrane (@natecochrane) February 21, 2023
A drought, a high-pressure system, and sea currents have caused the usually overflowing canals to be almost empty, wreaking havoc on the city’s transportation system.
The drought is caused by higher-than-usual temperatures, little rainfall, and less snow than usual in the North.
“We are in a water deficit situation that has been building up since the winter of 2020-2021,” climate expert Massimiliano Pasqui of the Italian scientific research institute CNR told the newspaper Corriere della Sera. “We need 50 days of rain.”
Related: Avoid Traveling to These Places If You Want to Help the Environment
Photo by Stefano Mazzola/Getty Images
The results of the low water levels can be seen all over Venice. Photos show gondolas, usually navigating through the water piloted by gondoliers, grounded in mud puddles.
And it’s not just the tourists who are suffering. Reuters reported that water ambulances, which form part of the city’s emergency services, could also not access some routes.
The good news: The latest weather forecasts say much-needed precipitation and snow is expected in the Northern Alps soon, which supplies Venice with water.
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Jonathan Small
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