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Tag: Dow Jones Industrial Average

  • Goldman Sachs leads gainers among the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average; Bank of America up handily

    Goldman Sachs leads gainers among the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average; Bank of America up handily

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    Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s stock
    GS,
    +4.42%

    is the biggest gainer among the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.66%

    at midday Friday with a rise of 4%. The stock has risen 12.6% so far this week. It’s also on pace for largest percent increase since November 10, 2022, when it rose 4.51%, according Dow Jones Market Data. Meanwhile, Bank of America Corp.’s stock
    BAC,
    +2.90%

    was up about 3% and is on track for a 13% gain this week, which would be its best since it rose by 16.5% in the week ending June 5, 2020.

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  • Dow logs best three-day stretch since April as Fed leaves interest rates on hold

    Dow logs best three-day stretch since April as Fed leaves interest rates on hold

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    U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 capping off its biggest three-day percentage-point gain since March after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell again suggested that rising Treasury yields were likely aiding the central bank’s fight against inflation. This could potentially ease the pressure on the Fed to push interest rates even higher, which helped boost stocks. The S&P 500 SPX finished higher for the third straight day, rising 44.04 points, or 1.1%, on Wednesday to 4,237.84, according to preliminary closing data from FactSet. The index has gained nearly 3% over the last three trading days, its biggest…

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  • How stock-market investors can ride out a ‘fear cycle’ as S&P 500, Nasdaq fall into correction

    How stock-market investors can ride out a ‘fear cycle’ as S&P 500, Nasdaq fall into correction

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    Many people like to feel at least a little bit of fright.

    That has been the whole point of Halloween for ages. The spooky traditions might even be a sort of hedge, a way to limit carnage should darker days lurk around the corner.

    Where it gets trickier is when fear impacts a nest egg, retirement fund or portfolio holdings. And fear of looming mayhem has been higher in October, with a sharp selloff causing the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    to break below the 4,200 level, landing it in a correction on Friday. It also joined the Nasdaq Composite Index in falling at least 10% from a summer peak.

    In addition, a brutal bond-market rout has pushed the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    up dramatically, with both recently dancing around the 5% level, which can drive up borrowing costs for the U.S. economy and cause havoc in financial markets.

    “Round numbers matter,” said Rich Steinberg, chief market strategist at The Colony Group, which has $20 billion in assets under management. He said the backdrop has investors trying to figure out “where to put money” and wanting to know “where can we hide?”

    “When you get into a fear cycle, the dynamics can get out of whack with reality,” Steinberg said. He thinks investors won’t go wrong earning roughly 5.5% on shorter term risk-free Treasurys, while penciling in stock prices they like.

    “That’s where investors really get rewarded over the long-term,” he said, granted they have enough liquidity to ride out what could be elongated patches of volatility.

    Increasingly, investor worries tie back to U.S. government spending, with the Treasury Department early next expected to release an estimated $1.5 trillion borrowing need to accommodate a large budget deficit. That would unleash even more Treasury supply into an unsettled market, and potentially strain the plumbing of financial markets.

    Higher U.S. bond yields threaten to make it more expensive for the federal government to service its debt load, but they also can be prohibitive for companies, sparking layoffs and defaults.

    Fed decisions, yields

    The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its policy interest rates steady on Wednesday following its two-day meeting, keeping the rate at a 22-year high in the 5.25%-5.5% range.

    The real fireworks, however, often appear during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s afternoon press conference following each rate decision.

    “I firmly believe they are done for good,” said Bryce Doty, a senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, of Fed hikes in this cycle, which he notes should set up bond funds for a banner 2024, after two rough years, given today’s higher starting yields.

    Yet, Doty also sees two “wild cards” that could rattle markets. Heavy Treasury debt issuance could overwhelm liquidity in the marketplace, causing yields to go up higher and potentially force the Fed to restart its bond-buying program, he said.

    War abroad also could expand, including with the Israel-Hamas conflict, which could spark a flight to quality and push down U.S. bond yields.

    With that backdrop, Doty suggests adding duration in bonds
    BX:TMUBMUSD03M
    as longer-term yields rise above short-term yields, and the so-called Treasury yield curve gets steeper. “This is the time,” he said. Investors should “keep marching” out on the curve as it steepens.

    “Yields, in my mind, have been the main challenge for the equity market,” said Keith Lerner, chief markets strategist at Truist Advisory Services, while noting that stocks have been wobbly since the 10-year Treasury yield topped 4% in July.

    Lerner also said the near 17% drop in the powerful “Magnificent Seven” stocks, while notable, isn’t as bad as in some other S&P 500 index sectors, like real estate, were the retrenchment is closer to 20%.

    “We’ve had a pretty good reset,” he said, adding that lower stock prices provide investors with “somewhat better compensation” for the uncertainties ahead.

    “This is one of the most challenging investment environments we’ve seen in a long time,” said Cameron Brandt, director of research at EPFR, which tracks fund flows across asset classes.

    With that backdrop, he expects investors to keep more dry powder on hand through the end of this year than in the past.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    shed 2.1% for the week and closed at its lowest level since the March banking crisis. The S&P 500 lost 2.5% for the week and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6% for the week.

    Another big item on the calendar for next week, beyond the Treasury borrowing announcement and Fed decision Wednesday is the Labor Department’s October jobs report due Friday.

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  • Oil falls, markets hold steady as Israel launches Gaza ground offensive

    Oil falls, markets hold steady as Israel launches Gaza ground offensive

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    Oil futures dropped Sunday night as markets saw a calm opening following Israel’s launch of a ground offensive in Gaza that drew implied threats from Iran amid market fears of a wider conflict that could disrupt global crude supplies.

    Oil declined as Israel “seems to be approaching the situation with caution, which has brought a sense of relief that the worst-case scenarios may not materialize,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, in a note.

    Innes, however, said investors should remember “this is likely to be a long, drawn-out affair with many false dawns.”

    West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery
    CL00,
    -1.51%

    CL.1,
    -1.51%

    CLZ23,
    -1.51%

    fell 93 cents, or 1%, to $84.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Sunday night. December Brent crude
    BRNZ23,
    -1.34%
    ,
    the global benchmark, was off $1, or 1.1%, at $89.48 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, dipping back below the $90-a-barrel threshold.

    Oil futures jumped nearly 3% on Friday, but suffered weekly declines, eroding the modest risk premium priced into the market.

    Read: 4 reasons why oil prices have only seen a modest Middle East risk premium

    Israeli solders had moved at least two miles deep into the Gaza Strip as of Sunday, the Wall Street Journal reported, after beginning a delayed ground incursion into the enclave aimed at routing Hamas following its Oct, 7 attack on southern Israel that left more than 1,400 dead and saw more than 200 Israelis taken hostage.

    A sustained bombardment of the densely populated Gaza Strip by Israel has resulted in more than 8,000 casualties, according to Palestinian authorities. Israel has been under pressure by the U.S. and others to minimize civilian casualties.

    U.S. stock-index futures ticked higher, with S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    +0.32%

    up 0.3%, while futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    YM00,
    +0.20%

    added 68 points, or 0.2%.

    The biggest worry among investors is a conflict that sees Iran become more directly involved. Iranian crude exports have rebounded from lows seen after the Trump administration withdrew the U.S. from a nuclear accord with Tehran and reimposed sanctions in 2018.

    A renewed crackdown on Iran could take up to 1 million barrels a day of crude off the market, while a spiraling conflict could see Tehran threaten transportation chokepoints, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, or otherwise attack infrastructure in the region, while driving up a fear premium.

    Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, in a post on X written in English, said Saturday that Israel had “crossed the red lines, which may force everyone to take action.”

    U.S. warplanes on Friday struck two locations in eastern Syria, which the Pentagon said were linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, following a string of attacks on U.S. air bases in the region that started last week.

    U.S. stocks are poised to book another round of monthly losses as October draws to an end, though pressure has been attributed largely to a surge in Treasury yields. The S&P 500
    SPX
    last week joined the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    in correction territory, while the Dow
    DJIA
    is down more than 2% year to date.

    The rise in yields, which move opposite price, has come as U.S. government debt has failed to attract its usual haven-related buying amid rising Mideast tensions.

    See: Israel-Hamas war sees investors shun most traditional havens, except for these two

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  • Jamie Dimon’s stock-moving trades show why investors should track CEOs’ buying and selling

    Jamie Dimon’s stock-moving trades show why investors should track CEOs’ buying and selling

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    Jamie Dimon, chairman and chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. says the new U.K. government should be “given the benefit of the doubt.”

    Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    For the first time in nearly two decades running JPMorgan Chase, CEO Jamie Dimon will voluntarily sell stock in the bank.

    The disclosure, in a securities filing Friday, detailed next year’s planned sales — pressuring JPMorgan (JPM) shares and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and highlighting why tracking trades made by executives involving the companies they lead should be an important part of every investor’s homework.

    Dimon is setting up the trades through a predetermined plan that executives at publicly traded companies use to protect against insider trading accusations. It will mark the first time that the 67-year-old CEO has offloaded shares of JPMorgan for non-technical reasons, such as exercising options.  

    The planned sales – amounting to roughly 12% of the JPMorgan stock owned by Dimon and his family – are being done for tax planning and personal wealth diversification reasons, the bank said. Both are common reasons for executives to sell stock in their firms. The bank also said Dimon continues to believe JPMorgan’s prospects are “very strong,” and his planned trades are not related in any way to succession. Such sales are often seen when CEOs get close to retirement.

    As you can see, making sense of insider transactions can sometimes be a tall task.

    When they buy, it’s generally seen as an encouraging sign by Wall Street — and there is, perhaps, no better example of this than another move by Dimon in 2016, when he purchased JPMorgan stock.

    Fears of a weakening global economy sent stocks into a tailspin in early 2016, driving shares of JPMorgan down nearly 20% and the S&P 500 down more than 10% at their lows.

    But that weakness didn’t last long.

    The trajectory of the market changed just six weeks into the new year. That’s when Dimon disclosed — after the closing bell on Feb. 11, 2016 — that he bought 500,000 shares of the bank, worth about $26 million at the time.

    Dimon’s stock purchase, intended to show confidence in the financial sector, has become legendary on Wall Street. It ultimately coincided with — or perhaps was the reason for — the closing lows for not only shares of JPMorgan in 2016 but also the S&P 500 overall.

    Jim Cramer has since dubbed Feb. 11, 2016: “The Jamie Dimon Bottom.” JPMorgan finished up 30% that year, while the S&P 500 ended more than 9% higher — both huge turnarounds.

    While executive stock sales — such as Dimon’s planned transactions next year — are not universally red flags, they can get complicated.

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  • The Nasdaq just fell into a correction. Now what?

    The Nasdaq just fell into a correction. Now what?

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    The Nasdaq Composite Index fell into its 70th correction in history on Wednesday, as surging long-term Treasury yields increased borrowing costs and weighed on stocks.

    The interest rate sensitive Nasdaq
    COMP
    barreled higher in the year’s first half, in part on optimism about a potential Federal Reserve pivot away from rate hikes to fight inflation, but stocks have been under fire in recent months as the Fed dialed up its message that interest rates could will stay higher for longer.

    The tech-heavy equity index fell 2.4% on Wednesday to close below the 12,922.216 threshold, marking a drop of a least 10% from its prior peak, which was set in mid-July at 14,358.02, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    That met the common definition for a correction in an asset’s value and is the Nasdaq’s 70th close in correction territory since the index’s inception in February 1971.

    Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management, said the sharp rise in long-term Treasury yields has spooked investors, especially those in highflying, high-growth technology stocks where rising rates can be particularly corrosive.

    Pavlik likened the dynamic to the spending power of a lottery winner hitting a jackpot when rates are at 2% versus someone who wins when rates are closer to 10%.

    He also expects the 10-year Treasury yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y,
    which rose to 4.952% Wednesday, to top out at 5.25% to 5.5% and likely complicate any recovery for the Nasdaq.

    In the past 20 corrections for the Nasdaq, it took an average of three months for performance to improve, with index then gaining 14.4% on average a year later, according to Dow Jones Industrial Average.

    Nasdaq corrections are usually followed by a bounce in a few months


    Dow Jones Market Data

    The damage on Wednesday was most acute in shares of highflying technology stocks, including Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    -9.60%

    as shares skid 9.5%, after it reported earnings that were overshadowed by downbeat performance for its Google Cloud business. Spillover also hit shares of rival cloud computing giant Amazon.com Inc.,
    AMZN,
    -5.58%

    with its shares slumping 5.6%

    “You’re feeling the pressure in some big-name stocks,” Pavlik said. “But this too will, at some point, end. But concerns about the Fed are still in the forefront of everybody’s minds.”

    The Nasdaq was still up 22.5% on the year through Wednesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    was down 0.3% and the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    was up 9% in 2023, according to FactSet.

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  • Nasdaq finishes in correction territory after worst day since February

    Nasdaq finishes in correction territory after worst day since February

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    U.S. stocks tumbled on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq Composite seeing its biggest pullback since February, as Google parent Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    -9.51%

    shares cratered, weighing on the broader market. The Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -2.43%

    fell 318.65 points, or 2.4%, to 12,821.22, finishing in correction territory for the first time since late December 2022, according to preliminary closing data from FactSet. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.43%

    fell 60.91 points, or 1.4%, to 4,186.77. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.32%

    fell 105.45 points, or 0.3%, to 33,035.93.

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  • Dow opens higher, lifted by Microsoft’s post-earnings rally

    Dow opens higher, lifted by Microsoft’s post-earnings rally

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    The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened higher on Wednesday as a post-earnings rally in shares of Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +3.71%

    helped lift the blue-chip gauge while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite sunk. The Dow gained 91 points, or 0.3%, at to trade at 33,218, according to FactSet data. Meanwhile, the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.02%

    shed 22 points, or 0.5%, to 4,225, and the Nasdaq
    COMP,
    -1.43%

    fell by 135 points, or 1.1%, to 13,000. The Dow had snapped a four-day losing streak on Tuesday as U.S. stocks rebounded following the worst stretch of the year.

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Strong earnings pave the way for markets

    CNBC Daily Open: Strong earnings pave the way for markets

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    Victor J. Blue | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    Dow snaps four-day losing streak
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained over 200 points on Tuesday, ending a four-day streak of declines as investors shifted focus to strong earnings reports from companies including Coca-Cola and Verizon. After the close, results from tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet rolled in. Hong Kong led a rebound in Asia markets, while investors also assess Australia’s third-quarter inflation figures.

    Microsoft profit pops
    Microsoft issued quarterly revenue guidance above Wall Street estimates. The company also reported a surge in profit thanks to a slower pace of operating expense growth. Net income, at $22.29 billion, increased 27% from $17.56 billion, or $2.35 per share in the same quarter a year ago. The software maker’s shares jumped as much as 6% in extended trading on Tuesday.

    Alphabet cloud business in spotlight
    Alphabet reported 11% revenue growth in the third quarter, as a rebound in advertising pushed expansion into double digits for the first time in over a year. Its shares dropped almost 7% in extended trading as the cloud business missed analysts’ estimates. For the quarter, it reported earnings per share of $1.55 vs. $1.45 expected by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv. Google Cloud revenue was $8.41 billion vs. $8.64 billion, according to StreetAccount.

    Snap shares seesaw  
    Snap shares initially soared as much as 20% in after-hours trading as the company beat on the top and bottom lines. It later settled to gain a little over 1% as investors digested news that some advertisers had paused spending following the onset of the war in the Middle East.

    [PRO] Rising yields and war
    Yields are still rising, a war is raging, and it’s uncertain whether interest rates will stay higher for longer. Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was above 4.9% for the first time since 2007. Investors continued to consider geopolitical risks from the Israel-Hamas war and the United States’ restrictions on artificial intelligence chip exports to China. Here’s how to trade the volatility, according to fund managers.

    The bottom line

    Markets are now slowly starting to come away from the tumultuous swings of last week when Treasury yields were high, and catalysts were few. That no longer seems an issue as investors can now look to a heavy flow of earnings to make their next call.

    The Dow snapped four straight sessions of losses to end higher on Tuesday. U.S. Treasury yields were steady after slipping back below 5%, though they remained near 16-year highs.

    Investors also had a spate of quarterly reports to parse. Coca-Cola posted earnings and revenue above estimates. Verizon recorded its best daily performance in almost 15 years after beating analysts’ expectations for both earnings and revenue. Audio streaming giant Spotify posted third-quarter results that topped expectations.

    But the elephant in the room was Big Tech earnings.

    Cloud revenue was key for both Microsoft and Alphabet. It’s a business that’s becoming even more significant with the emergence of generative artificial intelligence, which runs hefty workloads in the cloud.

    The clear winner of this quarter’s cloud battle was Microsoft, powered by Azure as clients flocked to new generative AI tools in the cloud that have been enhanced with software from Microsoft-backed startup OpenAI. 

    Alphabet’s cloud unit tried to catch up with Azure and Amazon Web Services. But Google’s core advertising also weakened due to economic softening last year and increased competition from TikTok.

    “If you want this stock to keep going higher, you’ve got to have cloud become more profitable,” said Lee Munson, chief investment officer of Portfolio Wealth Advisors. “It’s a third-rate cloud platform. We need to see it make money.”

    Keeping to the AI theme, Qualcomm announced two new chips on Tuesday designed to run AI software — including the large language models, or LLMs, that have captivated the technology industry — without having to connect to the internet.

    This could potentially boost the speed with which a high-end smartphone chip processes AI models.

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Strong earnings are the catalyst markets need

    CNBC Daily Open: Strong earnings are the catalyst markets need

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    People walk by the Fearless Girl bronze sculpture outside the New York Stock Exchange on April 21, 2023.

    Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    Dow snaps four-day losing streak
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained over 200 points on Tuesday, ending a four-day streak of declines as investors shifted focus to strong earnings reports from companies including Coca-Cola and Verizon. After the close, results from tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet rolled in. Europe’s Stoxx 600 snapped a five-session losing streak.

    Microsoft profit pops
    Microsoft issued quarterly revenue guidance above Wall Street estimates. The company also reported a surge in profit thanks to a slower pace of operating expense growth. Net income, at $22.29 billion, increased 27% from $17.56 billion, or $2.35 per share in the same quarter a year ago. The software maker’s shares jumped as much as 6% in extended trading on Tuesday.

    Alphabet cloud business in spotlight
    Alphabet reported 11% revenue growth in the third quarter, as a rebound in advertising pushed expansion into double digits for the first time in over a year. Its shares dropped almost 7% in extended trading as the cloud business missed analysts’ estimates. For the quarter, it reported earnings per share of $1.55 vs. $1.45 expected by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv. Google Cloud revenue was $8.41 billion vs. $8.64 billion, according to StreetAccount.

    Snap shares seesaw  
    Snap shares initially soared as much as 20% in after-hours trading as the company beat on the top and bottom lines. It later settled to gain a little over 1% as investors digested news that some advertisers had paused spending following the onset of the war in the Middle East.

    [PRO] Bitcoin just broke above a key level
    At last, bitcoin has broken out of a tight trading range, potentially heralding greater highs from here. After oscillating between $25,000 and $30,000 for most of the year, touching the top end several times and stepping out of it briefly at one point in July, the flagship cryptocurrency shot up to $35,000 late Monday. Here’s what investors should expect.   

    The bottom line

    Markets are now slowly starting to come away from the tumultuous swings of last week when Treasury yields were high, and catalysts were few. That no longer seems an issue as investors can now look to a heavy flow of earnings to make their next call.

    The Dow snapped four straight sessions of losses to end higher on Tuesday. U.S. Treasury yields were steady after slipping back below 5%, though they remained near 16-year highs.

    Investors also had a spate of quarterly reports to parse. Coca-Cola posted earnings and revenue above estimates. Verizon recorded its best daily performance in almost 15 years after beating analysts’ expectations for both earnings and revenue. Audio streaming giant Spotify posted third-quarter results that topped expectations.

    But the elephant in the room was Big Tech earnings.

    Cloud revenue was key for both Microsoft and Alphabet. It’s a business that’s becoming even more significant with the emergence of generative artificial intelligence, which runs hefty workloads in the cloud.

    The clear winner of this quarter’s cloud battle was Microsoft, powered by Azure as clients flocked to new generative AI tools in the cloud that have been enhanced with software from Microsoft-backed startup OpenAI. 

    Alphabet’s cloud unit tried to catch up with Azure and Amazon Web Services. But Google’s core advertising also weakened due to economic softening last year and increased competition from TikTok.

    “If you want this stock to keep going higher, you’ve got to have cloud become more profitable,” said Lee Munson, chief investment officer of Portfolio Wealth Advisors. “It’s a third-rate cloud platform. We need to see it make money.”

    Keeping to the AI theme, Qualcomm announced two new chips on Tuesday designed to run AI software — including the large language models, or LLMs, that have captivated the technology industry — without having to connect to the internet.

    This could potentially boost the speed with which high-end smartphone chip processes AI models.

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  • Equity strategist who called stock rally in first half says S&P 500 won’t resume climb until spring 2024

    Equity strategist who called stock rally in first half says S&P 500 won’t resume climb until spring 2024

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    A Wall Street strategist who foresaw the U.S. stock-market rally in the first half of the year now sees stocks treading water through the end of 2023, unlikely to extend the previous momentum until at least April 2024. 

    Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, extended his 4,400 target for the S&P 500
    SPX
    to April 2024 from the end of this year, as higher interest rates could pressure corporate earnings, weighing on stock prices, he said.

    “We believe the rally off the Oct. 2022 lows is over, and our view since summer 2023 has been a sideways trading range,” Bannister said in a Monday note. “The updated view is that we now believe our year-end 2023 target of 4,400 applies through Apr. 30, 2024.”

    Bannister was one of the few Wall Street strategists who correctly anticipated the U.S. stock-market rally in the first half of 2023. He also said economic risk for equities will rise in late 2023 as stock gains would stall in the second half of the year. He set his 4,400 year-end target for the S&P 500 in May, a roughly 4.3% advance from Monday’s close of 4,217.04, according to FactSet data.

    “We traded the relief rally [in early 2023], turned neutral in summer 2023 and discouraged bullishness before the third quarter of 2023,” Bannister said. He said he thinks a new record-high for the S&P 500 by year-end 2023, as some of the most bullish strategists on Wall Street have projected, is “exceptionally unlikely.”

    See: S&P 500 has another high 2023 price target. Here’s a look at Wall Street’s official stock-market outlook.

    Meanwhile, Bannister thinks the key 10-year U.S. Treasury yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    will peak around 5% in the current cycle, but he projects a “normalized” 10-year yield of 5% or 6% in the mid-2020s, which could put pressure on corporate earnings.

    The 10-year Treasury yield flirted with 5% on Monday for the first time since 2007, touching an intraday high of 5.02% in the morning trading before retreating to finish the New York session at 4.836%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. 

    “It is not ‘Fed high for longer’ — the Fed has returned to ‘policy modulation at normalized rates,’” Bannister wrote. 

    Bannister also pointed to the health of the U.S. labor market as a source of economic resilience and a reason for “the Fed rate normalization,” which could tighten financial conditions and weigh on price-to-earnings ratios for stocks. 

    The price-to-earnings ratio, sometimes known as the price multiple, is a ratio of a stock price divided by a public company’s yearly earnings per share. It is a way to determine stock valuation.

    That’s why the strategist sees the S&P 500 will remain flat or “range-bound” for the rest of the 2020s decade as price-to-earnings ratios across U.S. firms will be halved due to tightening financial conditions, but it could offset growth in earnings-per-share (EPS). Bannister forecasts the S&P 500 EPS will at least double from $156 in 2019 to a range of $300-325 in 2030. 

    EPS is a company’s net profit divided by the number of common shares it has outstanding, and it usually indicates how much money a company makes for each share of its stock.

    U.S. stocks finished mostly lower on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    down 190 points, or 0.6%, to end at 32,936, but the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    edged up 0.3%, according to FactSet data.

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  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens Monday

    5 things to know before the stock market opens Monday

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    Here are the most important news items that investors need to start their trading day:

    1. Bond yield boost

    U.S. stock futures slid Monday morning as the 10-year Treasury note yield again ticked above 5% — a level it hit Thursday for the first time since 2007. Earnings and inflation data will help to shape whether equities bounce back from a down week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.4% and the Nasdaq Composite shed 3.2% last week. A string of major earnings reports are due Tuesday through Thursday. The personal consumption expenditures data out Friday will offer clues about whether the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates again this year. Follow live market updates here.

    2. Tech torrent

    3. Aid arrives in Gaza

    4. Oil consolidation ramps up

    5. More Google scrutiny

    Another country is probing Alphabet’s Google for potential anticompetitive practices. Japan’s Fair Trade Commission said it would investigate potential antitrust violations related to Google’s search engine and its apps and platforms. The move in Japan follows scrutiny over allegations of anticompetitive conduct in the European Union and United States. A Google spokesperson told CNBC that Android is an open platform that ensures “users always have a choice to customize their devices to suit their needs, including the way they browse and search the internet, or download apps.”

    – CNBC’s Lisa Kailai Han, Ruxandra Iordache, Matt Clinch and Arjun Kharpal contributed to this report.

    Follow broader market action like a pro on CNBC Pro.

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Feeling of uncertainty is hard to shrug off for investors

    CNBC Daily Open: Feeling of uncertainty is hard to shrug off for investors

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    Gold bars of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum.

    Sven Hoppe | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    Markets tumble
    The
    Dow Jones Industrial Average closed nearly 300 points lower on Friday after a surge in the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield prompted broader concerns about the economy. Asia-Pacific markets started the week lower ahead of inflation readings from across the region, while gold hit a three-month high and gained for the second straight week amid fears of heightening conflict in the Middle East.

    Tesla clocks worst week of the year
    Tesla shares dropped more than 15% last week to close at $211.99 on Friday, marking the worst weekly performance for the stock this year as CEO Elon Musk sounded pessimistic about macroeconomic issues on a recent earnings call. Shares of the electric automaker are still up 96% year-to-date.

    Big earnings week
    Investors will be watching out for an action-packed week of earnings as companies including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon, Alphabet, General Motors and Ford among others gear up to post their quarterly results. The carmakers will be under the radar this week amid ongoing strikes and contract negotiations with the United Auto Workers union.

    X to launch new subscription tiers
    Owner Elon Musk said X, the social media service formerly known as Twitter, will launch two new tiers of subscriptions for users. One tier will be “lower cost with all features, but no reduction in ads,” while the other is “more expensive, but has no ads,” Musk said. 

    [PRO] The U.S. is trying to tighten the screws on Chinese AI
    The artificial intelligence behind ChatGPT-like products and autonomous driving is driving enormous demand for Nvidia’s chips in China. In the past week, however, analysts cut their Nvidia price targets after news the U.S. plans to ban the sale of more high-end semiconductors to China. Here’s what that means for stocks.

    The bottom line

    Rising Treasury yields, looming interest rate hikes to fight inflation and the heightening conflict in the Middle East drove investors away from risky assets last week.

    The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury crossed 5% for the first time since 2007 on Thursday, a level perceived by markets as a potential drag on the U.S. economy as it could translate to higher rates on mortgages, credit cards, auto loans and more.

    A move into safe-haven gold seemed like a sensible bet, given the worsening crisis in the Middle East. Gold was up 2.5% last week, recording its second consecutive weekly rise after adding 5.22% in the prior week.

    Investors are now bracing for a heavy week of earnings as Big Tech companies including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft will take centerstage.

    “We’re hopefully going to see some continued positive strength there on the economy and what they see going forward,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. “The headlines are scary, for sure. But the fundamentals to us are pretty strong. We’re still seeing earnings season that’s going to come in better than expected.”

    This will arrive after a mixed batch of earnings from behemoths like Tesla and Netflix last week. Tesla marked its biggest weekly decline after Elon Musk shared his pessimistic view on the macroeconomic landscape, while Netflix shares soared as markets cheered its new ad-tier subscription plan.

    Given the huge role advertisers and subscriptions play for the bottom lines of such firms, it was no surprise that Musk turned his attention to improving the usability of social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.

    Musk said. X is gearing up to launch two new tiers of subscriptions for users, in hopes that it could improve the company’s finances and open new revenue streams. Musk’s sweeping changes across the company, including firing most of its employees and reinstating previously banned accounts, scared advertisers away.

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Investors can’t shake off the feeling of uncertainty

    CNBC Daily Open: Investors can’t shake off the feeling of uncertainty

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    Traffic_analyzer | Istock | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    Markets tumble
    The
    Dow Jones Industrial Average closed nearly 300 points lower on Friday after a surge in the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield prompted broader concerns about the economy. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index ended at its lowest level since the start of the year, while gold hit a three-month high and gained for the second straight week amid fears of heightening conflict in the Middle East.

    Tesla clocks worst week of the year
    Tesla shares dropped more than 15% last week to close at $211.99 on Friday, marking the worst weekly performance for the stock this year as CEO Elon Musk sounded pessimistic about macroeconomic issues on a recent earnings call. Shares of the electric automaker are still up 96% year-to-date.

    Big earnings week
    Investors will be watching out for an action-packed week of earnings as companies including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon, Alphabet, General Motors and Ford among others gear up to post their quarterly results. The carmakers will be under the radar this week amid ongoing strikes and contract negotiations with the United Auto Workers union.

    X to launch new subscription tiers
    Owner Elon Musk said X, the social media service formerly known as Twitter, will launch two new tiers of subscriptions for users. One tier will be “lower cost with all features, but no reduction in ads,” while the other is “more expensive, but has no ads,” Musk said. 

    [PRO] Earnings playbook
    Big Tech takes center stage in what could be a make-or-break week for S&P 500 earnings. About 150 S&P 500 companies are slated to report, including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon and Alphabet. Those results come during a tough time for Wall Street, as higher rates and conflict in the Middle East rattle investor sentiment. Here’s how to trade a busy week of earnings.

    The bottom line

    Rising Treasury yields, looming interest rate hikes to fight inflation and the heightening conflict in the Middle East drove investors away from risky assets last week.

    The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury crossed 5% for the first time since 2007 on Thursday, a level perceived by markets as a potential drag on the U.S. economy as it could translate to higher rates on mortgages, credit cards, auto loans and more.

    A move into safe-haven gold seemed like a sensible bet, given the worsening crisis in the Middle East. Gold was up 2.5% last week, recording its second consecutive weekly rise after adding 5.22% in the prior week.

    Investors are now bracing for a heavy week of earnings as Big Tech companies including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft will take centerstage.

    “We’re hopefully going to see some continued positive strength there on the economy and what they see going forward,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. “The headlines are scary, for sure. But the fundamentals to us are pretty strong. We’re still seeing earnings season that’s going to come in better than expected.”

    This will arrive after a mixed batch of earnings from behemoths like Tesla and Netflix last week. Tesla marked its biggest weekly decline after Elon Musk shared his pessimistic view on the macroeconomic landscape, while Netflix shares soared as markets cheered its new ad-tier subscription plan.

    Given the huge role advertisers and subscriptions play for the bottom lines of such firms, it was no surprise that Musk turned his attention to improving the usability of social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.

    Musk said. X is gearing up to launch two new tiers of subscriptions for users, in hopes that it could improve the company’s finances and open new revenue streams. Musk’s sweeping changes across the company, including firing most of its employees and reinstating previously banned accounts, scared advertisers away.

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  • S&P 500’s slump this week wipes out October gains

    S&P 500’s slump this week wipes out October gains

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    U.S. stocks are sliding this week, erasing October’s gains, as higher Treasury yields weigh on markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA , S&P 500 SPX and Nasdaq Composite COMP were all down heading toward the closing bell on Friday, with each index on pace for a weekly loss. Investors saw this month’s gains evaporate on Thursday, as equities fell under pressure from rising interest rates in the bond market as investors weighed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks that another rate hike may be needed to slow the economy and bring down inflation. So far this month, the Dow has slumped 1%, the S&P 500 has…

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  • Jim Jordan dropped as speaker nominee by House Republicans, who plan for new pick next week

    Jim Jordan dropped as speaker nominee by House Republicans, who plan for new pick next week

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    House Republicans voted Friday in a secret ballot against keeping Rep. Jim Jordan as their nominee for speaker, and they planned to determine a new nominee next week.

    The Ohio congressman had been facing resistance in his bid to become speaker, with the number of fellow Republicans voting against him rising to 25 in a third round of voting Friday on the House floor, up from 22 in a prior ballot. 

    House GOP lawmakers were expected to meet Monday evening for a new forum for speaker candidates. Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma said in a post on X that he was running for the job, and Rep. Jack Bergman of Michigan has indicated he’ll seek the post as well.

    The GOP opposition to Jordan stemmed from a range of concerns, including that his speakership could lead to cuts in defense
    ITA
    spending, as well as the view that he didn’t provide enough support for the speaker bid of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, a Louisiana Republican. Jordan’s Republican opponents also said they’ve faced death threats for their stance, with Rep. Drew Ferguson of Georgia saying Thursday that the House GOP “does not need a bully as the Speaker.”

    Analysts have been warning that the process of picking a new speaker is preventing the Republican-run House from addressing crucial matters, such as supporting Israel and passing a budget to avoid a government shutdown next month that could rattle markets. It has been 17 days since the historic ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican.

    Related: Israel, Ukraine aid could run up against House dysfunction, making for ‘tragedy,’ analyst says

    And see: Biden seeks $14 billion for Israel, $61 billion for Ukraine in request to Congress

    With the House looking rudderless for more than two weeks, the chamber’s temporary speaker, GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, has faced calls to take on the job more permanently. But a measure that would have McHenry serve in the post until January stalled on Thursday afternoon due to objections from a number of Republicans, even as Jordan offered his support for it.

    U.S. stocks
    SPX

    DJIA

    COMP
    were losing ground Friday, as rising bond yields
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    and geopolitical tensions continue to take a toll. 

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  • Jim Jordan dropped as speaker nominee by House Republicans, who plan for new pick next week

    Jim Jordan dropped as speaker nominee by House Republicans, who plan for new pick next week

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    House Republicans voted Friday in a secret ballot against keeping Rep. Jim Jordan as their nominee for speaker, and they planned to determine a new nominee next week.

    The Ohio congressman had been facing resistance in his bid to become speaker, with the number of fellow Republicans voting against him rising to 25 in a third round of voting Friday on the House floor, up from 22 in a prior ballot. 

    House…

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  • Why strategists see 10-year Treasury yield breaching 5% despite Friday’s pullback

    Why strategists see 10-year Treasury yield breaching 5% despite Friday’s pullback

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    The 10-year Treasury yield continued to pull back from 5% on Friday after moving tantalizingly close to surpassing that level in the previous session.

    The yield touched 5% at 5:02 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday, only to drift back down, according to Tradeweb data. It ended Friday’s New York session down by 6.3 basis points at 4.924%.

    Rising Middle East tensions gave way to renewed safe-haven demand in government debt on Friday that not only sent the 10-year yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    lower, but dragged down rates on everything from 3-month Treasury bills
    BX:TMUBMUSD03M
    to the 30-year bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y.

    Investors were trying to catch the proverbial falling knife by taking advantage of a cheaper 10-year Treasury note, the product of recent selloffs. Analysts warn that it’s difficult to have much short-term conviction in catching that knife, however, given the likelihood that the selloff could return.

    One big reason is the onslaught of new supply from the U.S. Treasury as the result of the government’s growing borrowing needs, which is raising the risk that investors will keep demanding more compensation to hold long-dated debt to maturity.

    On Oct. 30 and Nov. 1, which is the same day as the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision, Treasury is expected to provide updated guidance on its borrowing needs and auction sizes. Treasury’s refunding announcement could even upstage the Federal Open Market Committee — creating “fertile ground for a continuation of the selloff in Treasuries,” said BMO Capital Markets rates strategists Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery.

    Over the next several weeks, “it becomes much easier to envision a surge in Treasury yields in anticipation of the upcoming coupon supply,” they wrote in a note on Friday. While the 10-year yield has stopped shy of 5%, “we continue to expect this milestone will be reached shortly.”

    Stock-market investors have been focused on the prospects of a 5% 10-year yield because such a level would dent the appeal of equities and make government debt a more attractive investment by comparison.

    Read: Why stock-market investors are fixated on 5% as 10-year Treasury yield nears key threshold

    As of Friday, the 10-year yield, used as the benchmark on everything from mortgages to student and auto loans, has jumped 163.9 basis points from its 52-week low of almost 3.29% reached on April 5. The 10-year yield hasn’t ended the New York session above 5% since July 19, 2007.

    Meanwhile, all three major stock indexes
    DJIA

    SPX

    COMP
    ended the day lower as the prospects of a widening conflict in the Middle East triggered a flight-to-safety trade into Treasurys.

    Taking a step back, a 5% 10-year yield would imply that a Goldilocks-scenario of a U.S. economy — one that’s neither too hot or too cold, and able to sustain moderate growth — “is here to stay for a decade,” or that the Fed’s main interest-rate target needs to be materially higher on average over the next decade, according to BMO’s Lyngen and Jeffery. One of the biggest questions facing policy makers is whether the economy might be moving into a new stage in which even higher interest rates down the road could be required to cool demand and activity.

    Though BMO Capital Markets is biased toward lower yields into the weekend given the absence of major economic data on Friday, technical indicators “continue to favor higher rates in the near-term,” and “our conviction that 5% will ultimately be traded through has grown.”

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  • House speaker election: Jim Jordan loses in third ballot as Republican opposition grows again

    House speaker election: Jim Jordan loses in third ballot as Republican opposition grows again

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    Rep. Jim Jordan continued to face resistance Friday in his bid to become the next speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, with the number of fellow Republicans voting against the Ohio congressman rising to 25 in a third ballot, up from 22 in the prior ballot.

    House GOP lawmakers were slated to hold a meeting around 1 p.m. Eastern Friday, and there were expectations they would vote on whether Jordan should continue to be their nominee for speaker.

    Jordan hasn’t sounded like he’s close to throwing in the towel, as he indicated at a news conference before the third round of voting that he planned to keep pushing.

    “There’s been multiple rounds of votes for speaker before,” he said during the news conference, referring to how former Speaker Kevin McCarthy needed 15 ballots to secure the job in January.

    “Our plan this weekend is to get a speaker elected to the House of Representatives as soon as possible so we can help the American people,” he also said.

    Jordan — an ally of former President Donald Trump and co-founder of the hardline House Freedom Caucus — had 22 GOP lawmakers vote against him in a second ballot on Wednesday. On Tuesday, 20 fellow Republicans backed other candidates in an initial round of voting.

    Jordan needs a simple majority of House lawmakers to back him in order to become speaker of the narrowly divided chamber, which has 221 Republicans and 212 Democrats, with two vacancies. That would have been 215 votes in the third ballot as there were some absences Friday.

    All 210 Democrats present Friday voted for their nominee, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, while 194 Republicans backed Jordan and 25 GOP lawmakers supported other candidates.

    Analysts have been warning that the process of picking a new speaker is preventing the Republican-run House from addressing crucial matters, such as supporting Israel and passing a budget to avoid a government shutdown next month that could rattle markets. 

    Related: Israel, Ukraine aid could run up against House dysfunction, making for ‘tragedy,’ analyst says

    And see: Biden seeks $14 billion for Israel, $61 billion for Ukraine in request to Congress

    With the House looking rudderless for more than two weeks, the chamber’s temporary speaker, GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, has drawn calls to take on the job more permanently. But a measure that would have McHenry serve in the post until January stalled on Thursday afternoon due to objections from a number of Republicans, even as Jordan offered his support for it.

    “This resolution is really dangerous. We need to have a NORMAL election for speaker. @Jim_Jordan, I respect you but it is a massive mistake to back this,” GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida said Thursday in a post on X as the measure lost momentum.

    Given the GOP opposition, the McHenry option would require some Democratic support. Jeffries, a New York Democrat, has continued to signal openness to it.

    “Conversations hopefully will intensify today, perhaps continue throughout the weekend, and get us to a place where we can reopen the House no later than Monday of next week,” Jeffries told reporters on Friday after the third ballot.

    The GOP opposition to Jordan stems from a range of concerns, including that his speakership could lead to cuts in defense
    ITA
    spending, as well as the view that he didn’t provide enough support for the speaker bid of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise. Jordan’s Republican opponents also have said they’ve faced death threats for their stance, with Rep. Drew Ferguson of Georgia saying Thursday that the House GOP “does not need a bully as the Speaker.”

    Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, who led the drive to oust McCarthy from his post more than two weeks ago, said he and the other GOP lawmakers who opposed McCarthy have made an offer to their colleagues who aren’t supporting Jordan, in an effort to get them to switch their votes.

    “The eight of us have said that we are willing to accept censure, sanction, suspension, removal from the Republican conference,” Gaetz told reporters after the third ballot, adding that the group will continue to vote with Republicans.

    Another Jordan supporter, GOP Rep. Bob Good of Virginia, said the Ohioan should stick with his bid, noting McCarthy went through many rounds.

    “We believe if we keep voting Jim Jordan will be elected speaker,” Good told reporters.

    U.S. stocks
    SPX

    DJIA

    COMP
    were losing ground Friday, as rising bond yields
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    and geopolitical tensions continue to take a toll. 

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  • Wall Street warns of ‘Black Monday’ repeat just in time for 36th anniversary

    Wall Street warns of ‘Black Monday’ repeat just in time for 36th anniversary

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    As the anniversary of “Black Monday” approaches, some on Wall Street are observing it by swapping ominous-looking charts and speculating that one of the most terrifying days in markets history might recur.

    One could even go as far to say that on social media, some seem eager to relive it, evidenced by a proliferation of viral markets charts, some comparing the stock market’s recent trading action to 1987. Here’s one example from The Market Ear which adheres to a template that caught on following the publication of a column by Bloomberg’s John Authers.


    THE MARKET EAR

    Authers pointed out that the Nasdaq in 2023 has followed a similar pattern to the Dow in 1987, and that this pattern has also played out in Treasury yields.

    To be sure, there are plenty of differences between markets today and in 1987. For one, stock exchanges have strengthened circuit-breaker mechanisms in order to prevent major indexes from crashing by double digits during a single session.

    Here is another: While the S&P 500
    SPX
    has climbed this year in spite of rising yields, the index’s gains have been concentrated in a handful of stocks. Outside of these lucky few, much of the market has lagged or has continued to slide following losses in 2022.

    Skeptics contend fretful investors are hearing echoes of 1987, while ignoring important differences.

    “In 1987, the market was more overbought, the October decline before the crash was far more pronounced, interest rates were higher, economic growth and inflation were accelerating, and cyclical sectors were stronger” — all in contrast with the current setup, noted Ed Clissold and Thanh Nguyen, strategists at Ned Davis Research, in a note last week.

    That hasn’t daunted doomsayers on social media, eager to augur a crash ahead of this year’s anniversary, which falls on Thursday.

    On Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    plunged 508 points, a decline of almost 23%, in a daylong selling frenzy that ricocheted around the world and tested the limits of the financial system. The S&P 500 dropped more than 20%. At current levels, an equivalent percentage drop would translate into a one-day loss of over 7,700 points. Circuit breakers make a drop of similar magnitude nearly impossible.

    Even on Wall Street, some are using the anniversary as an opportunity to take another look at Treasury yields and the dark cloud they’re casting over stocks.

    Jefferies’ Global Head of Equity Strategy Christopher Wood recently shared a couple of charts comparing the relationship between stocks and bond yields in 2023 to 1987, driving home the point that stocks appeared resilient to higher yields in 1987 until they finally capitulated with an economy-shaking selloff.


    JEFFERIES


    JEFFERIES

    “The potential similarity with what occurred in October 1987 is that the historic stock market crash was preceded by a big sell-off in the 10-year Treasury over the summer months,” Woods said in the report.

    But suppose, for argument’s sake, that stocks did experience a 1987-style selloff. How then might the bond market react? Would yields tumble like they did in 1987, opening the door for stocks to bolt higher once again? Some on Wall Street have posited that a stock-market rout is necessary to stem the bleeding in bonds.

    Woods delved into this line of thinking in his report.

    “But the other salient point to note is that when the S&P 500 subsequently collapsed by 28.5% in four days, and by 20.5% on 19 October 1987 alone, the Treasury bond market staged a classic flight-to-safety rally in the context of a then dramatic decline in the 10-year Treasury bond yield,” Woods added.

    Société Générale’s sharp-tongued strategist Albert Edwards has also warned about the possibility of a 1987-style crash.

    See: ‘Just like in 1987.’ Here’s what could deliver a ‘devastating blow’ to stocks, says SocGen strategist Albert Edwards.

    But NDR’s Clissold and Nguyen argued that “while there are several high-level similarities, not enough line up to conclude that a crash-like event is likely.

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