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Tag: Dow Jones Industrial Average

  • Confidence crisis at Goldman Sachs? The Fast Money traders debate

    Confidence crisis at Goldman Sachs? The Fast Money traders debate

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    Are the knives coming out for Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon? With CNBC’s Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Guy Adami and Jeff Mills.

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  • Philadelphia Eagles’ Ndamukong Suh on balancing an investment career

    Philadelphia Eagles’ Ndamukong Suh on balancing an investment career

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    Philadelphia Eagle Ndamukong Suh discusses his forays into the investment world. With CNBC’s Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Guy Adami and Jeff Mills.

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  • GE’s Larry Culp Has a Message for Investors

    GE’s Larry Culp Has a Message for Investors

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  • Big Tech just added to a shrinking forecast, but maybe Bob Iger can brighten the mood

    Big Tech just added to a shrinking forecast, but maybe Bob Iger can brighten the mood

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    Wall Street’s expectations for 2023 have been diving as forecasts for the new year come in light, and the news could get worse once they factor in disappointing results from Big Tech. But at least Bob Iger is coming back for a sequel.

    Google, Facebook, Amazon and Apple all disappointed with holiday earnings this week. Their forecasts ranged from nonexistent to piecemeal to meh, and the fallout will only add to the biggest dive in Wall Street’s expectations through the beginning of a year since 2016.

    Analysts’ average forecast for 2023 earnings from the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -1.04%

    dropped by 2.5% in January, according to FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters, the worst in seven years. Those projections began heading lower last year, and the decline is only steepening — analysts are now projecting 3% earnings growth in 2023, and that is contingent on a big holiday rebound from the results being released this quarter.


    Uncredited

    The news was even worse for the first quarter, for which projections declined 3.3% in January as companies whiffed on their forecasts at a rapid pace: 86% of the 43 companies that have guided for first-quarter earnings have missed projections, Butters reported. Earnings are now expected to decline 4.2%, which would be the first year-over-year earnings decline since the third quarter of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic write-offs started to come in.

    Big Tech only added to the downward trajectory in recent days. Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -8.43%

    missed on its holiday earnings as well as its forecast for the first quarter, and that company could determine if S&P 500 profits rise in 2023 all on its own. Amazon’s worst holiday earnings since 2014 could also contribute to the consumer discretionary sector’s first earnings decline since the beginning of the pandemic, with holiday sector earnings now expected to drop more than 5%.

    Google parent Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    -2.75%

    GOOG,
    -3.29%

    and Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    -1.19%

    also missed their respective earnings targets amid problems with the digital-advertising industry, leading to the communications-services sector having the worst earnings season in the S&P 500. Profit has declined 25.2% in that sector so far, the worst among the 11 S&P 500 sectors, but would be down just 6.5% without the effects of Meta and Alphabet, Butters reported.

    Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +2.44%

    also didn’t do projections any favors, reporting its biggest sales decrease since 2016 and an earnings miss Thursday afternoon. In a piecemeal forecast, executives projected a similar sales decline in the calendar first quarter, though unofficially.

    This week in earnings

    After the busiest week in earnings season wrapped up, don’t expect much of a breather — 95 S&P 500 companies are expected to report in the week ahead, the third consecutive week with at least 90 companies reporting. There will be plenty of intrigue among companies not in the S&P 500 too, including Robinhood Markets Inc.
    HOOD,
    -3.59%

    and Affirm Holdings Inc.
    AFRM,
    -14.14%

    reporting together on Wednesday afternoon.

    Only one Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.38%

    stock will report, but that is the Wednesday call you will want to tune in for: Bob Iger’s return to the Walt Disney Co.
    DIS,
    -2.21%

    earnings show.

    The calls to put on your calendar
    The numbers to watch

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  • The stock-market rally survived a confusing week. Here’s what comes next.

    The stock-market rally survived a confusing week. Here’s what comes next.

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    Despite a Friday stumble, stocks ended a turbulent week with another round of solid gains, keeping 2023’s young but robust stock-market rally very much alive.

    But a cloud of confusion also sets over the market, and it will eventually need to be resolved, strategists said.

    Stocks rose early in the week as traders continued to bet that the Federal Reserve won’t follow through on its forecast to push the federal funds rate to a peak above 5% and hold it there, instead looking for cuts by year-end. Fed chief Jerome Powell pushed back against that expectation again on Wednesday, but a nuanced answer to a question about loosening financial conditions and an acknowledgment that the “disinflationary process” had begun convinced traders they remained right about the rate path.

    On Friday, however, a blowout January jobs report, with the U.S. economy adding 517,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to 3.4%, its lowest level since 1969, appeared to affirm Powell’s position.

    Stocks took a hit, even if they finished off session lows, with the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -1.59%

    booking a fifth straight weekly gain and the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.04%

    achieving back-to-back weekly wins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.38%

    suffered a 0.2% weekly fall.

    “It kind of leaves you shaking your head right now, doesn’t it?” asked Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, in a phone interview.

    See: Jobs report tells markets what Fed chairman Powell tried to tell them

    Commentary: The blowout jobs report is actually three times stronger than it appears

    At some point in the coming months there will need to be “a reconciliation between what the markets think the Fed will do and what Powell says the Fed will do,” Baird said.

    The rally could continue for now, Baird said, but he argued it would be wise in the long run to take the Fed at face value. “I think the overall tone of risk taking in the market right now is a little bit too optimistic.”

    Money-market traders did react to Friday’s data. Fed funds futures on Friday afternoon reflected a 99.6% probability that the Fed would raise the target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its next policy meeting, on March 22, up from an 82.7% probability on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    For the Fed’s May meeting, the market reflected a 61.3% chance of another quarter-point rise to 5% to 5.25%, the level the Fed has signaled is its expected high-water-mark rate. On Thursday, it saw just a 30% chance of a quarter-point rise in May. But markets still look for a cut by year-end.

    Of course, one month’s data do not represent the end of the argument. But unless January’s labor-market strength turns out to be a blip, the hawks on the Fed are likely to dig in and keep rates higher for longer, said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management, in a phone interview.

    For markets, the lack of a resolution to the long-simmering disconnect with the Fed could lead to a period of consolidation after an admittedly impressive start to 2023, he said.

    Indeed, the momentum behind the market’s rally could be set to continue. It’s been led by tech and other growth stocks that were hammered in last year’s market rout. Market watchers detect a sense of “FOMO,” or fear of missing out, is driving what some have termed a tech-stock “meltup.”

    See: Tech stock ‘meltup’ puts Nasdaq-100 on verge of exiting bear market

    “The impressive equity rally to start the year has caught cautious institutional investors, hedge funds, and strategists off guard. While overbought conditions are obvious, the near-universal level of skepticism among institutions provides a contrarian degree of support for continued strength,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide, in a Friday note.

    And then there’s earnings season, which has so far seen results from around half of the S&P 500.

    Companies through Friday had reported lower earnings for the fourth quarter relative to the end of the previous week and relative to the end of the quarter.

    The blended earnings decline (a combination of actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) for the fourth quarter was 5.3% through Friday, compared with an earnings decline of 5.1% last week and an earnings decline of 3.3% at the end of the fourth quarter, according to FactSet. If earnings come out negative for the quarter, it would be the first year-over-year decline since the third quarter of 2020.

    When it comes to earnings, “there’s definitely been a mood of forgiveness in the market,” said BMO’s Ma.

    “I think the market just didn’t want to see a disastrous earnings season,” he said, noting expectations remain for weak earnings in the current quarter and next, with bulls looking into the second half of this year and even into 2024 to get on a better footing.

    For the market, the main driver will remain data on inflation and wage growth, Ma said.

    Mark Hulbert: Are we in a new bull market for stocks?

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  • Nasdaq logs best January since 2001 as stocks climb to cap off stellar month

    Nasdaq logs best January since 2001 as stocks climb to cap off stellar month

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    U.S. stocks finished in the green on Tuesday as the Nasdaq cemented its best January performance since 2001 amid a broad-based rally in equities that saw some of 2022’s worst performers take the lead. The S&P 500 SPX gained 58.83 points, or about 1.5%, to finish January at 4,076.60, a gain of 6.2% for the month, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That’s the large-cap index’s best monthly gain since October, and its best January since 2019, something that is also true for the Dow. The Nasdaq Composite COMP rose by 190.74 points, or 1.7%, to 11,584.55 on Tuesday, bringing its gain for January to 10.7%. January was also…

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  • The Fed and the stock market are set for a showdown this week. What’s at stake.

    The Fed and the stock market are set for a showdown this week. What’s at stake.

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    Let’s get ready to rumble.

    The Federal Reserve and investors appear to be locked in what one veteran market watcher has described as an epic game of “chicken.” What Fed Chair Jerome Powell says Wednesday could determine the winner.

    Here’s the conflict. Fed policy makers have steadily insisted that the fed-funds rate, now at 4.25% to 4.5%, must rise above 5% and, importantly, stay there as the central bank attempts to bring inflation back to its 2% target. Fed-funds futures, however, show money-market traders aren’t fully convinced the rate will top 5%. Perhaps more galling to Fed officials, traders expect the central bank to deliver cuts by year-end.

    Stock-market investors have also bought into the latter policy “pivot” scenario, fueling a January surge for beaten down technology and growth stocks, which are particularly interest rate-sensitive. Treasury bonds have rallied, pulling down yields across the curve. And the U.S. dollar has weakened.

    Cruisin’ for a bruisin’?

    To some market watchers, investors now appear way too big for their breeches. They expect Powell to attempt to take them down a peg or two.

    How so? Look for Powell to be “unambiguously hawkish,” when he holds a news conference following the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, said Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, in a phone interview.

    “Hawkish” is market lingo used to describe a central banker sounding tough on inflation and less worried about economic growth.

    In Powell’s case, that would likely mean emphasizing that the labor market remains significantly out of balance, calling for a significant reduction in job openings that will require monetary policy to remain restrictive for a long period, Torres said.

    If Powell sounds sufficiently hawkish, “financial conditions will tighten up quickly,” Torres said, in a phone interview. Treasury yields “would rise, tech would drop and the dollar would rise after a message like that.” If not, then expect the tech and Treasury rally to continue and the dollar to get softer.

    Hanging loose

    Indeed, it’s a loosening of financial conditions that’s seen trying Powell’s patience. Looser conditions are represented by a tightening of credit spreads, lower borrowing costs, and higher stock prices that contribute to speculative activity and increased risk taking, which helps fuel inflation. It also helps weaken the dollar, contributes to inflation through higher import costs, Torres said, noting that indexes measuring financial conditions have fallen for 14 straight weeks.

    The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index provides a weekly update on U.S. financial conditions. Positive values have been historically associated with tighter-than-average financial conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with looser-than-average financial conditions.


    Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, fred.stlouisfed.org

    Powell and the Fed have certainly expressed concerns about the potential for loose financial conditions to undercut their inflation-fighting efforts.

    The minutes of the Fed’s December meeting. released in early January, contained this attention-grabbing line: “Participants noted that, because monetary policy worked importantly through financial markets, an unwarranted easing in financial conditions, especially if driven by a misperception by the public of the Committee’s reaction function, would complicate the Committee’s effort to restore price stability.”

    That was taken by some investors as a sign that the Fed wasn’t eager to see a sustained stock market rally and might even be inclined to punish financial markets if conditions loosened too far.

    Read: The Fed delivered a message to the stock market: Big rallies will prolong pain

    If that interpretation is correct, it underlines the notion that the Fed “put” — the central bank’s seemingly longstanding willingness to respond to a plunging market with a loosening of policy — is largely kaput.

    The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite logged its fourth straight weekly rise last week, up 4.3% to end Friday at its highest since Sept. 14. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.25%

    advanced 2.5% to log its highest settlement since Dec. 2, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.08%

    rose 1.8%.

    Meanwhile, the Fed is almost universally expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate increase on Wednesday. That is a downshift from the series of outsize 75 and 50 basis point hikes it delivered over the course of 2022.

    See: Fed set to deliver quarter-point rate increase along with ‘one last hawkish sting in the tail’

    Data showing U.S. inflation continues to slow after peaking at a roughly four-decade high last summer alongside expectations for a much weaker, and potentially recessionary, economy in 2023 have stoked bets the Fed won’t be as aggressive as advertised. But a pickup in gasoline and food prices could make for a bounce in January inflation readings, he said, which would give Powell another cudgel to beat back market expectations for easier policy in future meetings.

    Jackson Hole redux

    Torres sees the setup heading into this week’s Fed meeting as similar to the run-up to Powell’s speech at an annual central banking symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last August, in which he delivered a blunt message that the fight against inflation meant economic pain ahead. That spelled doom for what proved to be another of 2023’s many bear-market rallies, starting a slide that took stocks to their lows for the year in October.

    But some question how frustrated policy makers really are with the current backdrop.

    Sure, financial conditions have loosened in recent weeks, but they remain far tighter than they were a year ago before the Fed embarked on its aggressive tightening campaign, said Kelsey Berro, portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, in a phone interview.

    “So from a holistic perspective, the Fed feels they are getting policy more restrictive,” she said, as evidenced, for example, by the significant rise in mortgage rates over the past year.

    Still, it’s likely the Fed’s message this week will continue to emphasize that the recent slowing in inflation isn’t enough to declare victory and that further hikes are in the pipeline, Berro said.

    Too soon for a shift

    For investors and traders, the focus will be on whether Powell continues to emphasize that the biggest risk is the Fed doing too little on the inflation front or shifts to a message that acknowledges the possibility the Fed could overdo it and sink the economy, Berro said.

    She expects Powell to eventually deliver that message, but this week’s news conference is probably too early. The Fed won’t update the so-called dot plot, a compilation of forecasts by individual policy makers, or its staff economic forecasts until its March meeting.

    That could prove to be a disappointment for investors hoping for a decisive showdown this week.

    “Unfortunately, this is the kind of meeting that could end up being anticlimactic,” Berro said.

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  • Could Big Tech layoffs keep growing? Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google may give hints in biggest week of earnings.

    Could Big Tech layoffs keep growing? Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google may give hints in biggest week of earnings.

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    In the biggest week of the holiday-earnings season, Big Tech results will receive the spotlight amid thousands of layoffs that could only be the beginning.

    After tech stocks were decimated in 2022, investors will be looking for signs of a turnaround in holiday reports and potential forecasts for the year ahead from three of 2022’s top five market-value losers: Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -0.66%
    ,
    Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    -0.63%

    and Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    -0.60%
    .
    The other two stocks on that list — Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    -1.38%

    and Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    -0.15%

    — reported last week, and Microsoft’s results in the wake of a mass-layoffs announcement did not bode well for its Big Tech brethren.

    See also: Microsoft could be the cloud sector’s ‘canary in the coal mine’

    Those companies — along with Google parent Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    -1.32%

    GOOG,
    -1.49%

    — will deliver results after finding themselves in unfamiliar territory: A backdrop of layoffs amid slowing demand for core products like digital ads, electronics and e-commerce, after a two-year pandemic surge and a two-decade-plus honeymoon with investors. Some analysts say the bottom hasn’t arrived, for either their finances or their workforces.

    The one Big Tech company that hasn’t taken a sword to its payroll is Apple, which also increased its staff the least among the group during the COVID-19 pandemic. Apple shed $846 billion from its market cap last year, and now reports after its core product was part of the smartphone industry’s worst year since 2013 and worst holiday-season decline on record. The iPhone maker could also face questions from Wall Street about changing up its product sourcing, which has relied heavily on China, a nation whose COVID-19 restrictions have constrained production of some phones.

    While the tech-industry layoffs have yet to hit Apple, some analysts say the company is unlikely to be spared, despite Chief Executive Tim Cook requesting and receiving a healthy cut to his compensation.

    “Similar to other big technology companies, we expect Apple to adjust its head count to reflect an increasingly challenging global macroeconomic environment,” D.A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte said in a research note Tuesday.

    Rivals that have already cut could face more if profit continues to fall along with revenue growth. Alphabet, for instance, is cutting 12,000 employees, but an activist investor has already said that is not enough considering how much the company grew during the pandemic, and the difficulties it now faces in the online-ad sector.

    Opinion: Microsoft’s big move in AI does not mean it will challenge Google in search

    Analysts have said Meta’s “darkest days” are still ahead, as it navigates a round of more than 11,000 layoffs, competition from TikTok and its early stumbles in the metaverse. While cutting, Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg has promised to keep spending on metaverse development, even as the efforts slash the Facebook parent company’s previously healthy bottom line.

    “In 2023, we expect Meta to remain engulfed in arduous battles inside the Octagon,” Monness Crespi Hardt analyst Brian White said in a research note on Thursday. “In the long run, we believe Meta will benefit from the secular digital ad trend and innovate in the metaverse; however, regulatory scrutiny persists, internal headwinds remain, and we believe the darkest days of this downturn are ahead of us.”

    Full Facebook earnings preview: Meta’s ‘darkest days’ are ahead, but some analysts say ad sales are still on track

    Online retailer Amazon
    AMZN,
    -0.66%

    was the first Big Tech company to publicly declare cost-cutting was in order a year ago, and still coughed up $834 billion in market value in 2022. It kicked off 2023 with plans to lay off more than 18,000 workers as struggles continued throughout last year, when inflation siphoned away more consumer dollars toward essentials.

    Amazon’s own AWS cloud-infrastructure unit has helped to drive sales in years past, as businesses built out their tech infrastructures. But remarks and the outlook from Microsoft executives — the third-biggest market-cap loser of 2022, and a big barometer for tech spending overall — weren’t exactly encouraging for cloud growth: Executives there last week warned of “moderating consumption growth” for its own cloud business.

    For more: One company could determine whether U.S. corporate profits rise to a record in 2023

    “Sentiment was already bearish on AWS, with investors looking for slowing revenue over the next three quarters, largely confirmed after Microsoft earnings and conversations with industry checks,” Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein said in a note on Wednesday. “Positively, we believe e-commerce revenue has stabilized, and margins should improve from organic scale and announced head-count reductions.”

    Layoffs are also starting to spread beyond Big Tech companies that grew fast during the pandemic in response to massive demand spikes. International Business Machines Corp.
    IBM,
    +0.76%

    confirmed plans for 3,900 layoffs as it reported earnings, despite already reducing its workforce by at least 20% during the pandemic.

    One sector to watch is semiconductors, where a chip shortage has turned into a glut: Chip-equipment maker Lam Research Corp.
    LRCX,
    +0.04%

    announced layoffs in the past week as Silicon Valley semiconductor giant Intel Corp.
    INTC,
    +0.27%

    displayed “astonishingly bad” results while laying off workers. When Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    -1.64%

    reports this week, it could determine whether there is any silver lining in the semiconductor storm.

    Earnings preview: AMD faces even more scrutiny after ‘astonishingly bad’ Intel outlook

    Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said in a Sunday note that a common theme of this week’s Big Tech earnings will be that “tech layoffs will accelerate with more pain ahead to curb expenses,” though he added that “Apple will likely cut some costs around the edges, but we do not expect mass layoffs from Cupertino this week.”

    Big Tech earnings were a salve to other problems in the market for the past decade-plus, but with layoffs already under way and doubts about the path forward, don’t expect salvation from their results this week.

    This week in earnings

    For the week ahead, 107 S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.19%

    companies, including six members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.18%
    ,
    will report results, according to FactSet. While more Dow components reported last week, this will be the busiest week for S&P 500 holiday earnings of the season, FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters confirmed to MarketWatch.

    Appliance-maker Whirlpool Corp.
    WHR,
    +1.18%

    reports on Monday, after it forecast fourth-quarter sales that were below expectations, following what it called a “one-off supply-chain disruption” and the pandemic home-renovation boom.

    On Tuesday, package-deliverer United Parcel Service Inc.
    UPS,
    -0.26%

    reports, amid questions about holiday-season demand. So does streaming service Spotify Technology,
    SPOT,
    -0.02%

    following its own layoffs and suggestions of possible price hikes, as well as McDonald’s Corp.
    MCD,
    -0.30%
    ,
    amid concerns that rising prices are keeping people from dining out. Exxon Mobil Corp.
    XOM,
    -0.99%
    ,
    Caterpillar Inc.
    CAT,
    -0.12%
    ,
    Snap Inc.
    SNAP,
    +0.64%

    and Pfizer Inc.
    PFE,
    +0.72%

    also report Tuesday.

    Earnings outlook: McDonald’s earnings haven’t been hit by higher prices

    On Wednesday, T-Mobile US Inc.
    TMUS,
    +0.23%

    reports, in the wake of a data breach and wobbling cellphone demand. Coffee chain Starbucks Corp.
    SBUX,
    -0.58%

    reports on Thursday, with analysts likely to be zeroed in on U.S. demand and China’s reopening, after executives said they were confident that higher prices, along with enthusiasm from younger customers and for customizable drinks, could help them navigate any potholes in the economy.

    For the Big Tech companies, Thursday is also the big day: Apple, Amazon and Alphabet will report that afternoon, after Meta reports the prior day.

    The calls to put on your calendar

    WWE upheaval: World Wrestling Entertainment Inc.
    WWE,
    +0.91%

    reports earnings on Thursday, as Vince McMahon — who returned to the professional-wrestling organization this month following allegations of sexual misconduct — seeks a buyer or some other so-called “strategic alternative” for the company.

    Analysts have speculated how the company’s wrestling events and backlog of media content might be repurposed, with some entertaining the possibility of interest from Amazon or Netflix Inc.
    NFLX,
    -0.39%
    .
    But WWE has struggled to develop story lines that stick with viewers, and has thinned its ranks of wrestlers.

    The Wall Street Journal this month reported that McMahon would pay a multimillion-dollar settlement to a former referee who accused him of raping her. Among the changes since McMahon returned was the departure of his daughter, who had been promoted to co-CEO after he stepped down from the role last year.

    There isn’t much clarity on whether Vince McMahon will be on Thursday’s earnings call, which was moved from the morning to the afternoon due to a scheduling conflict. But it should offer drama no matter who attends.

    The numbers to watch

    GM and Ford auto sales: Auto makers General Motors Co.
    GM,
    -2.00%

    and Ford Motor Co.
    F,
    -0.94%

    will issue results on Tuesday and Thursday respectively, amid signs of waning demand and rising interest rates that have made car loans more expensive. Despite falling new-vehicle sales in the third quarter, GM managed to keep its own sales higher, the AP noted.

    Mary Barry, GM’s chief executive, called out the popularity of vehicles like the Escalade, the Chevrolet Bolt EV and some pickups and SUVs during the auto maker’s third-quarter earnings call in October. During that quarter, GM said it completed and shipped nearly 75% of the unfinished vehicles held in its inventory in June. She said supply-chains were opening up again, but added that “short-term disruptions will continue to happen.”

    The auto makers report as they try to put a chip shortage and other production constraints behind them. But some forecasts call for 2022 auto sales, or sales volumes, to be the weakest in roughly a decade. Electric vehicle maker Tesla’s recent price cuts could also cut into GM’s and Ford’s own EV sales.

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  • The Fed and the stock market are set for a showdown this week. What’s at stake.

    The Fed and the stock market are set for a showdown this week. What’s at stake.

    [ad_1]

    Let’s get ready to rumble.

    The Federal Reserve and investors appear to be locked in what one veteran market watcher has described as an epic game of “chicken.” What Fed Chair Jerome Powell says Wednesday could determine the winner.

    Here’s the conflict. Fed policy makers have steadily insisted that the fed-funds rate, now at 4.25% to 4.5%, must rise above 5% and, importantly, stay there as the central bank attempts to bring inflation back to its 2% target. Fed-funds futures, however, show money-market traders aren’t fully convinced the rate will top 5%. Perhaps more galling to Fed officials, traders expect the central bank to deliver cuts by year-end.

    Stock-market investors have also bought into the latter policy “pivot” scenario, fueling a January surge for beaten down technology and growth stocks, which are particularly interest rate-sensitive. Treasury bonds have rallied, pulling down yields across the curve. And the U.S. dollar has weakened.

    Cruisin’ for a bruisin’?

    To some market watchers, investors now appear way too big for their breeches. They expect Powell to attempt to take them down a peg or two.

    How so? Look for Powell to be “unambiguously hawkish,” when he holds a news conference following the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, said Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, in a phone interview.

    “Hawkish” is market lingo used to describe a central banker sounding tough on inflation and less worried about economic growth.

    In Powell’s case, that would likely mean emphasizing that the labor market remains significantly out of balance, calling for a significant reduction in job openings that will require monetary policy to remain restrictive for a long period, Torres said.

    If Powell sounds sufficiently hawkish, “financial conditions will tighten up quickly,” Torres said, in a phone interview. Treasury yields “would rise, tech would drop and the dollar would rise after a message like that.” If not, then expect the tech and Treasury rally to continue and the dollar to get softer.

    Hanging loose

    Indeed, it’s a loosening of financial conditions that’s seen trying Powell’s patience. Looser conditions are represented by a tightening of credit spreads, lower borrowing costs, and higher stock prices that contribute to speculative activity and increased risk taking, which helps fuel inflation. It also helps weaken the dollar, contributes to inflation through higher import costs, Torres said, noting that indexes measuring financial conditions have fallen for 14 straight weeks.

    The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index provides a weekly update on U.S. financial conditions. Positive values have been historically associated with tighter-than-average financial conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with looser-than-average financial conditions.


    Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, fred.stlouisfed.org

    Powell and the Fed have certainly expressed concerns about the potential for loose financial conditions to undercut their inflation-fighting efforts.

    The minutes of the Fed’s December meeting. released in early January, contained this attention-grabbing line: “Participants noted that, because monetary policy worked importantly through financial markets, an unwarranted easing in financial conditions, especially if driven by a misperception by the public of the Committee’s reaction function, would complicate the Committee’s effort to restore price stability.”

    That was taken by some investors as a sign that the Fed wasn’t eager to see a sustained stock market rally and might even be inclined to punish financial markets if conditions loosened too far.

    Read: The Fed delivered a message to the stock market: Big rallies will prolong pain

    If that interpretation is correct, it underlines the notion that the Fed “put” — the central bank’s seemingly longstanding willingness to respond to a plunging market with a loosening of policy — is largely kaput.

    The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite logged its fourth straight weekly rise last week, up 4.3% to end Friday at its highest since Sept. 14. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.25%

    advanced 2.5% to log its highest settlement since Dec. 2, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.08%

    rose 1.8%.

    Meanwhile, the Fed is almost universally expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate increase on Wednesday. That is a downshift from the series of outsize 75 and 50 basis point hikes it delivered over the course of 2022.

    See: Fed set to deliver quarter-point rate increase along with ‘one last hawkish sting in the tail’

    Data showing U.S. inflation continues to slow after peaking at a roughly four-decade high last summer alongside expectations for a much weaker, and potentially recessionary, economy in 2023 have stoked bets the Fed won’t be as aggressive as advertised. But a pickup in gasoline and food prices could make for a bounce in January inflation readings, he said, which would give Powell another cudgel to beat back market expectations for easier policy in future meetings.

    Jackson Hole redux

    Torres sees the setup heading into this week’s Fed meeting as similar to the run-up to Powell’s speech at an annual central banking symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last August, in which he delivered a blunt message that the fight against inflation meant economic pain ahead. That spelled doom for what proved to be another of 2023’s many bear-market rallies, starting a slide that took stocks to their lows for the year in October.

    But some question how frustrated policy makers really are with the current backdrop.

    Sure, financial conditions have loosened in recent weeks, but they remain far tighter than they were a year ago before the Fed embarked on its aggressive tightening campaign, said Kelsey Berro, portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, in a phone interview.

    “So from a holistic perspective, the Fed feels they are getting policy more restrictive,” she said, as evidenced, for example, by the significant rise in mortgage rates over the past year.

    Still, it’s likely the Fed’s message this week will continue to emphasize that the recent slowing in inflation isn’t enough to declare victory and that further hikes are in the pipeline, Berro said.

    Too soon for a shift

    For investors and traders, the focus will be on whether Powell continues to emphasize that the biggest risk is the Fed doing too little on the inflation front or shifts to a message that acknowledges the possibility the Fed could overdo it and sink the economy, Berro said.

    She expects Powell to eventually deliver that message, but this week’s news conference is probably too early. The Fed won’t update the so-called dot plot, a compilation of forecasts by individual policy makers, or its staff economic forecasts until its March meeting.

    That could prove to be a disappointment for investors hoping for a decisive showdown this week.

    “Unfortunately, this is the kind of meeting that could end up being anticlimactic,” Berro said.

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  • S&P 500 nears first ‘golden cross’ in 2.5 years, but this doesn’t guarantee more gains ahead

    S&P 500 nears first ‘golden cross’ in 2.5 years, but this doesn’t guarantee more gains ahead

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    The S&P 500 is on the verge of achieving its first “golden cross” in two-and-a-half years, but that doesn’t mean stocks are destined for more gains over the coming year.

    The golden-cross indicator is used by technical analysts as a sign that a particular upward trend in markets or currencies is gaining momentum. Barring a massive selloff in stocks, the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average should cross its 200-day moving average in a matter of days.

    If it happens, it would mark the first such event since July, 2020, according to FactSet data. Data show it often does precede further gains for stocks over the following six months, or a year, but not always.

    The S&P 500 has seen 52 golden crosses since 1930, according to Dow Jones Market Data, which used back-tested data to account for the index’s performance prior to its creation in 1957. In that time, stocks were trading higher one year later 71% of the time.

    But there have been some notable exceptions during periods of heightened volatility.

    The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.25%

    declined during the 12 months that followed the golden cross that occurred on April 1, 2019, according to Dow Jones Market Data. This happened again in 1999 as the dot-com bubble burst, and also following a golden cross that occurred in1986, preceding the “Black Monday” crash.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.08%

    achieved its most recent golden cross back in December and stocks have since moved higher.

    Technical analysts who spoke with MarketWatch said that while the golden cross can be a helpful sign that a given trend probably has more room to run, it helps to look for other signs as well.

    “The way we think about it is all big rallies start with a golden cross, but not all golden crosses lead to a big rally. It’s just one piece of the puzzle,” said Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer.

    See: U.S. stocks flash rare bull-market signal for first time in nearly 3 years, but some have their doubts

    There have been some other encouraging signs that U.S. stocks could be headed for a lasting turnaround. One example Wald cited was the so-called advance-decline line, which recently reached a new cycle high.

    According to technical analysts, that’s a measure of market breadth which shows whether the major equity index’s gains are being powered by a broad range of stocks, or a handful.

    The advance-decline line hit 2.2 on Thursday, its highest level in nearly a year.

    The fact that cyclical sectors like technology and consumer discretionary are among the best performers since the start of the year is another encouraging sign, according to Wald.

    FactSet data show that communication services, consumer discretionary and information technology are the three best-performing sectors of the S&P 500 so far this year, with communications services up more than 15% since Jan. 1.

    However, with so much uncertainty about monetary policy and the macroeconomic outlook, some analysts doubt that the stock-market will simply return to business as usual so quickly, even as inflation has moderated over the past six months, taking some of the pressure off the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates.

    One analysts warned that traders who are hungry for confirmation that the market sell-off of 2022 is indeed over should approach indicators like the golden cross with trepidation, despite its historical record.

    “In the past 20 years there have been more secular trends, and the golden crosses have worked,” said Will Tamplin, senior analyst at Fairlead Strategies. “But in an environment that’s a little more choppy, you can get the whipsaws. “

    The S&P 500 and SPDR S&P 500 exchange-traded fund
    SPY,
    +0.23%

    touched new intraday highs for the year on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +0.95%

    briefly traded at its highest level since September. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on track for a weekly gain of more than 2.3%, what would be its best such performance since November.

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  • Chevron stock falls after profit misses expectations, while revenue beats

    Chevron stock falls after profit misses expectations, while revenue beats

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    Shares of Chevron Corp.
    CVX,
    +4.86%

    fell 0.7% in premarket trading Friday after the oil and gas giant missed fourth-quarter profit expectations, while revenue rose above forecasts. Net income rose to $6.35 billion, or $3.33 a share, from $5.06 billion, or $2.63 a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding nonrecurring items, adjusted earnings per share of $4.09 was below the FactSet consensus of $4.33. Sales grew 17.3% to $56.47 billion, beating the FactSet consensus of $52.68 billion. Net oil-equivalent production fell 3% to 3.01 million barrels per day, as U.S. production rose 4% but international production dropped 7% due primarily to the end of concessions in Thailand and Indonesia. For Chevron’s upstream business, which includes exploration and production, U.S. earnings declined 11.9% to $2.62 billion while international earnings jumped 31.2% to $2.87 billion. “We delivered record earnings and cash flow in 2022, while increasing investments and growing U.S. production to a company record,” said Chief Executive Mike Wirth. The stock has gained 5.6% over the past three months through Thursday, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
    XLE,
    +3.16%

    has tacked on 4.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.61%

    advanced 6.0%.

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  • U.S. stocks climb as GDP report shows economy taking Fed’s rate hikes in stride

    U.S. stocks climb as GDP report shows economy taking Fed’s rate hikes in stride

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    U.S. stocks opened higher on Thursday as optimism over Tesla’s earnings results and a stronger-than-expected GDP report left investors in a better mood following Wednesday’s intraday selloff.

    How are stocks trading
    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      +0.40%

      rose by 34 points, or 0.8%, to 4,049.

    • Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      +0.05%

      gained 145 points, or 0.4%, to 33,889.

    • Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      +0.89%

      advanced 174 points, or 1.5%, to 11,487.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Wednesday’s session up 10 points after falling roughly 400 points at the lows earlier in the session. The S&P 500 finished little-changed after erasing its early losses, while the Nasdaq ended lower.

    What’s driving markets

    Stocks opened higher after a flurry of economic data including a fourth quarter GDP report that came in stronger than expected, but the focus was on the latest batch of earnings, which helped to revive investors’ optimism following disappointing guidance from Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +1.35%

    earlier in the week.

    The economy grew at a robust 2.9% annual pace to close out 2022, according to the first estimate of fourth quarter GDP, released Thursday morning — the latest sign that the U.S. economy is holding up well despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes.

    “Thursday’s GDP report suggests that the economy is relatively strong even in the face of aggressive measures by the Federal Reserve to calm inflation,” said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer, BMO Family Office, in emailed commentary.

    Stocks rose after the data were released as investors found solace in the latest signs that a soft landing for the U.S. economy — a scenario where growth slows, but a recession is avoided — remains possible, or even likely.

    “This is a bit of a relief rally,” said Christopher Zook, chairman and chief investment officer of CAZ Investments.

    However, corporate earnings and guidance are still the primary concern for investors, along with expectations about when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, Zook said.

    The labor market also showed signs of strength despite more reports of layoffs in the tech, finance and media spaces, as the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level since April. Investors also digested durable goods orders for December. New home sales for December will be published at 10 a.m. ET.

    Investors also celebrated a surge in Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +9.64%

    shares premarket after the firm released well-received results that showed record quarterly profits.

    Disappointing guidance from technology behemoth Microsoft had clobbered stocks on Wednesday as traders worried it signaled not just difficulties for the sector but also broadly worsening economic conditions.

    However, before the end of Wednesday’s session, Microsoft shares had recovered most of their 4.5% loss and the S&P 500 finished the session almost exactly where it began, according to data from FactSet.

    As for the Federal Reserve, the central bank is expected to slow the pace of interest rate hikes when it next week raises its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.

    Companies announcing results on Thursday include: McDonald’s
    MCD,
    -0.28%
    ,
    Intel
    INTC,
    -0.34%
    ,
    Comcast
    CMCSA,
    +0.86%
    ,
    Visa
    V,
    +0.15%
    ,
    Dow
    DOW,
    -1.16%
    ,
    Whirl pool
    WHR,
    -0.91%
    ,
    Western Digital
    WDC,
    +3.72%

    and Northrop Grumman
    NOC,
    -0.90%
    .

    Companies in focus

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  • Dow to cut 2,000 jobs, to record charges of up to $725 million primarily for severance and benefits costs

    Dow to cut 2,000 jobs, to record charges of up to $725 million primarily for severance and benefits costs

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    Dow Inc. DOW followed up its downbeat fourth-quarter earnings report with another release saying it would cut 2,000 jobs as part of its $1 billion cost-cutting plan. The cuts represent about 5.6% of the chemicals and specialty materials company’s workforce, according to FactSet data. Dow said it will also shut down select assets as it evaluates its global asset base, particularly in Europe. The company said it will record a charge of $550 million to $725 million in the first quarter of 2023 for costs resulting from its cost-cutting actions, which primarily include severance and benefit costs. Earlier, the company reported…

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  • Stocks finish lower, Dow clings to gains after latest batch of earnings

    Stocks finish lower, Dow clings to gains after latest batch of earnings

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    U.S. stocks finished lower on Tuesday with only the Dow clinging to gains for the session as investors digested more earnings reports from major American firms. The S&P 500 SPX shed roughly 3 points, or 0.1%, to finish just shy of 4,017. The Nasdaq Composite COMP dropped by 30 points, or 0.3%, to roughly 11,334. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 104 points, or 0.3%, to finish at roughly 33,734. More earnings from major U.S. companies, including Microsoft Corp. MSFT are due out after the bell.

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  • Stocks finish at highest level in a month as Nasdaq leads with 2% gain

    Stocks finish at highest level in a month as Nasdaq leads with 2% gain

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    U.S. stocks finished at their highest level in a month on Monday as strong performances by consumer-technology giant Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +2.35%

    and chipmaker NVIDIA Inc.
    NVDA,
    +7.59%

    pushed the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +2.01%

    further into the lead. The Nasdaq gained roughly 223 points, or 2%, to finish at around 11,364, bringing the tech-heavy index’s year-to-date gain to 8.6%, according to FactSet data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.76%

    gained 254 points, or 0.8%, to close at roughly 33,630. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.19%

    gained 47 points, or 1.2%, to 4,020. The Dow is up approximately 1.5% since the start of the year, while the S&P 500 is up roughly 4.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has outperformed the other major U.S. indexes since the start of 2023, a reversal of the trend from 2022, when the value-heavy Dow outperformed the Nasdaq by the widest margin since 2000, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Investors await a batch of earnings from megacap technology stocks this week, including Microsoft Corp
    MSFT,
    +0.98%
    .

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  • Earnings Watch: Microsoft, Tesla and Intel are about to face the doubters

    Earnings Watch: Microsoft, Tesla and Intel are about to face the doubters

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    After one of the worst years in Wall Street’s history, investors have some serious questions for companies. As holiday returns roll in — and with them, forecasts for the months or year ahead — many have the chance to answer those questions, or avoid them.

    In the busiest week of the holiday-earnings season so far, three big names will take the stage on back-to-back-to-back afternoons. Here is what to expect:

    Microsoft Corp.

    Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +3.57%

    shed $737 billion in market value last year, the third-most of any S&P 500 company, then announced plans to lay off some 10,000 workers this month. Previously a Wall Street darling thanks to the phenomenal growth of its Azure cloud-computing offering, Microsoft now faces a cutback in enterprise spending on cloud and other products, as companies seek to cut their bills after spending wantonly during the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    First Take: Big Tech layoffs are not as big as they appear at first glance

    When the company announced layoffs, Chief Executive Satya Nadella admitted customers were cutting, saying “as we saw customers accelerate their digital spend during the pandemic, we’re now seeing them optimize their digital spend to do more with less.” Analysts believe Azure may be holding up better than rivals, however, and will expect to hear about it when Microsoft results hit Tuesday afternoon.

    “Our Azure checks were mixed, but generally better than public cloud sentiment that has turned highly negative over the past few months,” Mizuho analysts wrote. “More specifically, we have heard of increasing levels of optimization, but it is being partially offset by many organizations prioritizing digital transformation.”

    From October: The cloud boom has hit its stormiest moment yet, and it is costing investors billions

    As cloud growth slows down, expect Microsoft to point to the next big buzzword in tech: Artificial intelligence, specifically ChatGPT, the chatbot product developed by OpenAI, which Microsoft has invested heavily in and expects to incorporate into its products. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria this month wrote that Microsoft’s investments in OpenAI would help it build out more AI technology, including in its search engine Bing.

    Tesla Inc.

    Tesla
    TSLA,
    +4.91%

    stock suffered a much larger percentage decline than Microsoft in 2022,as the electric-vehicle maker’s shares closed out their worst year on record with their worst quarter and month ever. After the year ended, Tesla began slashing prices in China and the U.S. in hopes of qualifying for more consumer tax incentives and reinvigorating demand, which could lead to questions about previously fat margins.

    In-depth: Tesla investors await clues on demand, board actions and weigh downside risks in 2023

    For Tesla, which reports fourth-quarter results Wednesday, the results will offer more context on production of the Cybertruck — currently set to start in the middle of the year — demand in China, competition and the impact of price cuts. Auto-information website Edmunds on Thursday said that Tesla’s decision to slash prices by as much as 20% in the U.S. and Europe led to a jump in interest in the vehicles.

    While those cuts seem likely to hurt profit, Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner called it “a bold offensive move, which secures Tesla’s volume growth, puts its traditional and EV competitors in great difficulty, and showcases Tesla’s considerable pricing power and cost superiority.” And a survey from Wedbush analysts found that “76% of EV Chinese consumers are considering buying a Tesla in 2023.” But Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Bernstein, said Tesla needed more low-cost electric-vehicle offerings, which might not ship until 2025.

    Tesla earnings preview: Price cuts in focus as stock hovers around 2-year low

    With Tesla’s stock in the gutter, some analysts have raised the possibility of a share buyback to spur investor interest, and Chief Executive Elon Musk said such a plan was being discussed in the previous earnings call. Musk is not in great favor with many investors right now, however, following some heavy selling of Tesla shares in the wake of his purchase last year of Twitter, which some on Wall Street have said has distracted him from the needs of the auto maker. Musk’s tweets have landed him in trouble elsewhere: Opening arguments began last week for a trial centered on allegations that Musk put investors at risk when he tweeted in 2018 that he was “considering” taking Tesla private and had secured the money to do so.

    ‘He broke the stock’: Why a prominent Tesla investor wants Elon Musk to put him on the board

    Intel Corp.

    Intel’s
    INTC,
    +2.81%

    questions were not fresh in 2022, as the chip maker for years has seen rivals like Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    +3.49%

    and Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +6.41%

    challenge it in ways that would have been unthinkable in previous generations. Shares still dove more than 43% last year, as declining sales led to plans for $3 billion in cost cuts.

    There’s little hope for a big rebound when Intel reports Thursday afternoon. Personal-computer sales have experienced their biggest year-over-year declines ever recorded, and Intel’s long-delayed new data-center offering that is meant to answer AMD’s challenge only began selling this year.

    Opinion: The PC boom and bust is already ‘one for the record books,’ and it isn’t over

    Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, though, has a chance to lay out his vision for a long-term Intel rebound, as he attempts to make Intel a chip-manufacturing powerhouse again after years of struggles. He was forced to trim his annual outlook multiple times last year, so it will be important for him to provide attainable numbers this time, but without reducing hopes in the path forward.

    This week in earnings

    Expectations remain low for fourth-quarter earnings season overall, with consumers squeezed by higher prices and interest rates, and hopes fading for any relief from the holiday shopping season. But even with a low bar, the fourth-quarter results from companies so far have been worse than the historical norm, with FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters writing Friday that “the fourth-quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 is not off to a strong start.”

    So far, 11% of S&P 500 companies have reported fourth-quarter results, with roughly one-third reporting earnings better than estimates, Butters reported. That’s lower than the 10-year average of 73%.

    Still, Wall Street generally expects strong profit margins for companies in the S&P 500, as earlier price increases — which help businesses offset their own costs and test the limits of consumer demand — mix with more recent cost cuts.

    For the week ahead, 93 companies in the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +1.89%
    ,
    and 12 of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +1.00%

    components, are set to report quarterly results.

    Mark your calendars! Here is MarketWatch’s full earnings calendar for the week

    Among the highlights: General Electric Co.
    GE,
    +1.07%

    reports Tuesday for the first time since splitting off its GE HealthCare Technologies
    GEHC,
    +4.43%

    business. 3M Co.
    MMM,
    +1.87%

    — which makes Post-it Notes, duct tape, air filters, adhesives and coatings — also reports Tuesday, after the company in October said the costs of raw materials, a big driver of inflation, were showing signs of easing.

    And as demand for goods eases amid worries about a downturn, a number of railroad operators that ship those goods report during the week. Union Pacific Corp.
    UNP,
    +1.54%
    ,
    whose lines ship across the Western half of the U.S., reports on Tuesday, while CSX Corp.
    CSX,
    +1.46%
    ,
    which covers much of the East, reports Wednesday. Norfolk Southern Corp.
    NSC,
    +1.51%

    also reports Wednesday.

    Telecom giants Verizon Communications Inc.
    VZ,
    -0.15%
    ,
    AT&T Inc.
    T,
    +1.53%

    and Comcast Corp.
    CMCSA,
    +3.22%

    report Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Results there will offer a clearer sense of the state of demand for Apple Inc.’s
    AAPL,
    +1.92%

    iPhones, as premium models suffer from production snags, and for broadband, which saw heightened demand when more people were staying home due to the pandemic.

    The call to put on your calendar

    Southwest, post-meltdown: Southwest Airlines Co.
    LUV,
    +1.67%
    ,
    which reports on Thursday, will offer executives with plenty to answer for, after bad weather and an overloaded, aging scheduling system caused thousands of flight cancellations over the holidays.

    For more: Southwest Airlines turns to repairing its reputation after holiday meltdown

    The implosion has raised questions about the air carrier’s investments in its own technology — after restarting dividend payments shortly before the disruptions — and airlines’ ability to handle the post-lockdown travel rebound. The breakdown has underscored the airline industry’s bigger issues with understaffing, after 2020’s wave of departures, as carriers try to reload flight schedules to meet pent-up travel demand.

    Scott Kirby, chief executive at United Airlines Holdings Inc.
    UAL,
    +2.25%
    ,
    said during his company’s earnings call last week that he felt the industry’s goals to expand their flight coverage this year and beyond were “simply unachievable.” And he said that airlines that tried to follow prepandemic patterns were destined to face trouble. He said manufacturers were suffering from delays in building jets, engines and other parts, and that airlines had outgrown their technology infrastructure.

    For more: United Airlines swings to profit despite ‘worst’ winter storm’

    “All of us, airlines and the FAA, lost experienced employees and most didn’t invest in the future,” he said. “That means the system simply can’t handle the volume today, much less the anticipated growth.”

    American Airlines Group Inc.
    AAL,
    +0.37%
    ,
    Alaska Air Group Inc.
    ALK,
    +0.85%

    and JetBlue Airways Corp.
    JBLU,
    +0.94%

    are also expected to report results Thursday morning, along with Southwest.

    The numbers to watch

    Visa, Mastercard and consumer spending: The return of travel and entertainment, along with rising prices, have helped prop up consumer spending. But as Visa Inc.
    V,
    +1.77%
    ,
    Mastercard Inc.
    MA,
    +2.27%
    ,
    American Express Co.
    AXP,
    +3.23%

    and Capital One Financial Corp.
    COF,
    +6.40%

    prepare to report, their finance-industry counterparts are getting nervous — and taking more steps to pad themselves against the fallout from consumers struggling to pay their bills.

    Credit-card issuer Capital One reports results on Tuesday, while card payments-network providers Visa and Mastercard report on Thursday, with Amex on Friday morning. They’ll report after shares of Discover Financial Services
    DFS,
    +4.16%

    got hit last week after the company, which also offers credit cards and loans, set aside more money to cover souring credit, and reported a bump in its net charge-off rate — a measure of debt a company thinks is unlikely to be recovered.

    Larger banks, like JPMorgan Chase & Co.
    JPM,
    +0.24%
    ,
    have also set aside more money to guard against credit losses.

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  • Earnings Watch: Microsoft, Tesla and Intel are about to face the doubters

    Earnings Watch: Microsoft, Tesla and Intel are about to face the doubters

    [ad_1]

    After one of the worst years in Wall Street’s history, investors have some serious questions for companies. As holiday returns roll in — and with them, forecasts for the months or year ahead — many have the chance to answer those questions, or avoid them.

    In the busiest week of the holiday-earnings season so far, three big names will take the stage on back-to-back-to-back afternoons. Here is what to expect:

    Microsoft Corp.

    Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +3.57%

    shed $737 billion in market value last year, the third-most of any S&P 500 company, then announced plans to lay off some 10,000 workers this month. Previously a Wall Street darling thanks to the phenomenal growth of its Azure cloud-computing offering, Microsoft now faces a cutback in enterprise spending on cloud and other products, as companies seek to cut their bills after spending wantonly during the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    First Take: Big Tech layoffs are not as big as they appear at first glance

    When the company announced layoffs, Chief Executive Satya Nadella admitted customers were cutting, saying “as we saw customers accelerate their digital spend during the pandemic, we’re now seeing them optimize their digital spend to do more with less.” Analysts believe Azure may be holding up better than rivals, however, and will expect to hear about it when Microsoft results hit Tuesday afternoon.

    “Our Azure checks were mixed, but generally better than public cloud sentiment that has turned highly negative over the past few months,” Mizuho analysts wrote. “More specifically, we have heard of increasing levels of optimization, but it is being partially offset by many organizations prioritizing digital transformation.”

    From October: The cloud boom has hit its stormiest moment yet, and it is costing investors billions

    As cloud growth slows down, expect Microsoft to point to the next big buzzword in tech: Artificial intelligence, specifically ChatGPT, the chatbot product developed by OpenAI, which Microsoft has invested heavily in and expects to incorporate into its products. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria this month wrote that Microsoft’s investments in OpenAI would help it build out more AI technology, including in its search engine Bing.

    Tesla Inc.

    Tesla
    TSLA,
    +4.91%

    stock suffered a much larger percentage decline than Microsoft in 2022,as the electric-vehicle maker’s shares closed out their worst year on record with their worst quarter and month ever. After the year ended, Tesla began slashing prices in China and the U.S. in hopes of qualifying for more consumer tax incentives and reinvigorating demand, which could lead to questions about previously fat margins.

    In-depth: Tesla investors await clues on demand, board actions and weigh downside risks in 2023

    For Tesla, which reports fourth-quarter results Wednesday, the results will offer more context on production of the Cybertruck — currently set to start in the middle of the year — demand in China, competition and the impact of price cuts. Auto-information website Edmunds on Thursday said that Tesla’s decision to slash prices by as much as 20% in the U.S. and Europe led to a jump in interest in the vehicles.

    While those cuts seem likely to hurt profit, Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner called it “a bold offensive move, which secures Tesla’s volume growth, puts its traditional and EV competitors in great difficulty, and showcases Tesla’s considerable pricing power and cost superiority.” And a survey from Wedbush analysts found that “76% of EV Chinese consumers are considering buying a Tesla in 2023.” But Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Bernstein, said Tesla needed more low-cost electric-vehicle offerings, which might not ship until 2025.

    Tesla earnings preview: Price cuts in focus as stock hovers around 2-year low

    With Tesla’s stock in the gutter, some analysts have raised the possibility of a share buyback to spur investor interest, and Chief Executive Elon Musk said such a plan was being discussed in the previous earnings call. Musk is not in great favor with many investors right now, however, following some heavy selling of Tesla shares in the wake of his purchase last year of Twitter, which some on Wall Street have said has distracted him from the needs of the auto maker. Musk’s tweets have landed him in trouble elsewhere: Opening arguments began last week for a trial centered on allegations that Musk put investors at risk when he tweeted in 2018 that he was “considering” taking Tesla private and had secured the money to do so.

    ‘He broke the stock’: Why a prominent Tesla investor wants Elon Musk to put him on the board

    Intel Corp.

    Intel’s
    INTC,
    +2.81%

    questions were not fresh in 2022, as the chip maker for years has seen rivals like Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    +3.49%

    and Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +6.41%

    challenge it in ways that would have been unthinkable in previous generations. Shares still dove more than 43% last year, as declining sales led to plans for $3 billion in cost cuts.

    There’s little hope for a big rebound when Intel reports Thursday afternoon. Personal-computer sales have experienced their biggest year-over-year declines ever recorded, and Intel’s long-delayed new data-center offering that is meant to answer AMD’s challenge only began selling this year.

    Opinion: The PC boom and bust is already ‘one for the record books,’ and it isn’t over

    Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, though, has a chance to lay out his vision for a long-term Intel rebound, as he attempts to make Intel a chip-manufacturing powerhouse again after years of struggles. He was forced to trim his annual outlook multiple times last year, so it will be important for him to provide attainable numbers this time, but without reducing hopes in the path forward.

    This week in earnings

    Expectations remain low for fourth-quarter earnings season overall, with consumers squeezed by higher prices and interest rates, and hopes fading for any relief from the holiday shopping season. But even with a low bar, the fourth-quarter results from companies so far have been worse than the historical norm, with FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters writing Friday that “the fourth-quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 is not off to a strong start.”

    So far, 11% of S&P 500 companies have reported fourth-quarter results, with roughly one-third reporting earnings better than estimates, Butters reported. That’s lower than the 10-year average of 73%.

    Still, Wall Street generally expects strong profit margins for companies in the S&P 500, as earlier price increases — which help businesses offset their own costs and test the limits of consumer demand — mix with more recent cost cuts.

    For the week ahead, 93 companies in the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +1.89%
    ,
    and 12 of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +1.00%

    components, are set to report quarterly results.

    Mark your calendars! Here is MarketWatch’s full earnings calendar for the week

    Among the highlights: General Electric Co.
    GE,
    +1.07%

    reports Tuesday for the first time since splitting off its GE HealthCare Technologies
    GEHC,
    +4.43%

    business. 3M Co.
    MMM,
    +1.87%

    — which makes Post-it Notes, duct tape, air filters, adhesives and coatings — also reports Tuesday, after the company in October said the costs of raw materials, a big driver of inflation, were showing signs of easing.

    And as demand for goods eases amid worries about a downturn, a number of railroad operators that ship those goods report during the week. Union Pacific Corp.
    UNP,
    +1.54%
    ,
    whose lines ship across the Western half of the U.S., reports on Tuesday, while CSX Corp.
    CSX,
    +1.46%
    ,
    which covers much of the East, reports Wednesday. Norfolk Southern Corp.
    NSC,
    +1.51%

    also reports Wednesday.

    Telecom giants Verizon Communications Inc.
    VZ,
    -0.15%
    ,
    AT&T Inc.
    T,
    +1.53%

    and Comcast Corp.
    CMCSA,
    +3.22%

    report Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Results there will offer a clearer sense of the state of demand for Apple Inc.’s
    AAPL,
    +1.92%

    iPhones, as premium models suffer from production snags, and for broadband, which saw heightened demand when more people were staying home due to the pandemic.

    The call to put on your calendar

    Southwest, post-meltdown: Southwest Airlines Co.
    LUV,
    +1.67%
    ,
    which reports on Thursday, will offer executives with plenty to answer for, after bad weather and an overloaded, aging scheduling system caused thousands of flight cancellations over the holidays.

    For more: Southwest Airlines turns to repairing its reputation after holiday meltdown

    The implosion has raised questions about the air carrier’s investments in its own technology — after restarting dividend payments shortly before the disruptions — and airlines’ ability to handle the post-lockdown travel rebound. The breakdown has underscored the airline industry’s bigger issues with understaffing, after 2020’s wave of departures, as carriers try to reload flight schedules to meet pent-up travel demand.

    Scott Kirby, chief executive at United Airlines Holdings Inc.
    UAL,
    +2.25%
    ,
    said during his company’s earnings call last week that he felt the industry’s goals to expand their flight coverage this year and beyond were “simply unachievable.” And he said that airlines that tried to follow prepandemic patterns were destined to face trouble. He said manufacturers were suffering from delays in building jets, engines and other parts, and that airlines had outgrown their technology infrastructure.

    For more: United Airlines swings to profit despite ‘worst’ winter storm’

    “All of us, airlines and the FAA, lost experienced employees and most didn’t invest in the future,” he said. “That means the system simply can’t handle the volume today, much less the anticipated growth.”

    American Airlines Group Inc.
    AAL,
    +0.37%
    ,
    Alaska Air Group Inc.
    ALK,
    +0.85%

    and JetBlue Airways Corp.
    JBLU,
    +0.94%

    are also expected to report results Thursday morning, along with Southwest.

    The numbers to watch

    Visa, Mastercard and consumer spending: The return of travel and entertainment, along with rising prices, have helped prop up consumer spending. But as Visa Inc.
    V,
    +1.77%
    ,
    Mastercard Inc.
    MA,
    +2.27%
    ,
    American Express Co.
    AXP,
    +3.23%

    and Capital One Financial Corp.
    COF,
    +6.40%

    prepare to report, their finance-industry counterparts are getting nervous — and taking more steps to pad themselves against the fallout from consumers struggling to pay their bills.

    Credit-card issuer Capital One reports results on Tuesday, while card payments-network providers Visa and Mastercard report on Thursday, with Amex on Friday morning. They’ll report after shares of Discover Financial Services
    DFS,
    +4.16%

    got hit last week after the company, which also offers credit cards and loans, set aside more money to cover souring credit, and reported a bump in its net charge-off rate — a measure of debt a company thinks is unlikely to be recovered.

    Larger banks, like JPMorgan Chase & Co.
    JPM,
    +0.24%
    ,
    have also set aside more money to guard against credit losses.

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  • 7 EVs That Can Cost Less Than the Average New Car

    7 EVs That Can Cost Less Than the Average New Car

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    Electric vehicle buyers in the U.S. can now get a purchase tax credit from the government, and it has pushed the price of several high-volume EVs below the average price paid for a new car in America.

    There are currently seven high-volume EVs that cost less than the average new car, including two


    Tesla


    (ticker: TSLA) models. Buyers should look at those if they are thinking about going electric.

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  • Why the U.S. debt-ceiling is worrying stock and bond investors

    Why the U.S. debt-ceiling is worrying stock and bond investors

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    The U.S. Treasury Department began taking “extraordinary measures” on Thursday to keep the federal government current on its bills, while giving Congress more time to come up with a debt ceiling deal.

    Those special measures allow the Treasury to keep paying its bills, including paying holders of government debt what they are due, while also, for now, continuing the issuance of bills and notes as scheduled in the near $24 trillion Treasury market, the world’s biggest debt market, to replace maturing debt.

    “There’s constant maturities and constant new issuance,” said Jim Vogel, an interest-rate strategist at FHN Financial, in an interview Thursday. “Until the Treasury calls a halt to auctions they go on as normal.”

    In part, new note auctions on deck will replace maturing bonds issued years ago, which should help give confidence to investors that the U.S. government intends to fully repay principal and interest, as promised. It also helps bide time for Congress to strike a deal to increase or suspend the existing debt limit.

    “Your early warning system is when 6-month bills get cheaper,” Vogel said, adding that a wobble in that part of the Treasury market could signal worries by investors that top lawmakers could fail to reach a debt ceiling deal by this summer, which could then raise the threat level of a U.S. government default.

    What’s next in the U.S. debt limit standoff

    The U.S. debt limit was first set in 1917, and already has been increased or suspended 102 times since World War II, according to David Kelly, chief global strategist at JP Morgan Funds, in a recent client note.

    The government had been approaching its current debt limit of $31.385 trillion, prompting Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday to deploy special measures to keep the government current on its bills, including making payments to bondholders, in moves she outlined a week ago.

    Kelly said the Treasury has leeway to make adjustments to postpone “our real rendezvous with disaster” potentially until June, but that from an economic and financial perspective a U.S. default would be “an unmitigated disaster.”

    Tax payments due to the U.S. government from corporations and households this spring also factor into the bigger debt-limit picture, while also influencing the final deadline for Congress to avoid an default on America’s debt.

    “We are coming up to the March corporate tax day,” said Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities, by phone Thursday. “That could boost the Treasury’s balances,” he said, while also noting the influx from taxes last was higher than anticipated.

    Why investors are focusing on the debt ceiling now

    With the ultimate showdown likely months away there are no discernible ripples in financial markets right now, but investors and analysts do seem to be paying much closer attention to the threat at a much earlier date than in past episodes, market watchers said.

    Blame the intraparty battle between House Republicans that saw Kevin McCarthy elected speaker on Jan. 7 after a historic 15 ballots – and only after agreeing to a series of concessions to a small group of far-right conservatives.

    Investors are “talking about it early because it came on the heels of a very difficult election of the speaker of the House and the sense that there’s now much more leverage that a few members of Congress may have to force this crisis that’s more likely to hit later in the summer,” said Christopher Smart, chief global strategist at Barings and head of the Barings Investment Institute, in a phone interview.

    Some recent history underscores the concern. It took all of then-Speaker John Boehner’s political capital – “and then some” – to finally secure a vote among the Republican caucus on raising the debt limit during a similar showdown in 2011, Smart noted, observing that Boehner had “much more leeway” than McCarthy.

    “So if there are five or more members who won’t vote” on raising the limit “without certain conditions being met,” it’s easy to imagine potentially ugly scenarios that could rattle markets, he said.

    What’s at stake

    Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley said Thursday in an interview with Bloomberg that a U.S. default would be a “huge blow” to markets, but also that a contingency plan exits if it happens.

    “The way it works is if you actually run out of money, the Treasury will decide what payments to present to the Fed,” Dudley said. “Presumably, the Treasury will decide to prioritize debt repayment and interest payments, so there isn’t a technical default. The Fed will basically honor the payments the Treasury present.”

    The Fed also could step in to shore up market functioning in the Treasury market, if needed.

    “What we saw in 2011 is that the Treasury market got stronger until we got close to the deadline,” Dudley said. “People don’t want to buy Treasury bills that are maturing right around the time the debt limit could be binding.”

    As a result of a 2011 debt-ceiling standoff, credit rating firm Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. credit ratings to AA from AAA.

    U.S. stocks declined for a third straight day on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.76%

    losing 252.40 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.76%

    shed 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    -0.96%

    dropped 1%.

    —Greg Robb contributed reporting to this article.

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  • Building gains into housing stocks and how to trade the sector

    Building gains into housing stocks and how to trade the sector

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    Share

    CNBC’s Diana Olick digs into today’s housing data. With CNBC’s Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami.

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