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Are the knives coming out for Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon? With CNBC’s Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Guy Adami and Jeff Mills.
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Are the knives coming out for Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon? With CNBC’s Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Guy Adami and Jeff Mills.
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Philadelphia Eagle Ndamukong Suh discusses his forays into the investment world. With CNBC’s Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Guy Adami and Jeff Mills.
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Despite a Friday stumble, stocks ended a turbulent week with another round of solid gains, keeping 2023’s young but robust stock-market rally very much alive.
But a cloud of confusion also sets over the market, and it will eventually need to be resolved, strategists said.
Stocks rose early in the week as traders continued to bet that the Federal Reserve won’t follow through on its forecast to push the federal funds rate to a peak above 5% and hold it there, instead looking for cuts by year-end. Fed chief Jerome Powell pushed back against that expectation again on Wednesday, but a nuanced answer to a question about loosening financial conditions and an acknowledgment that the “disinflationary process” had begun convinced traders they remained right about the rate path.
On Friday, however, a blowout January jobs report, with the U.S. economy adding 517,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to 3.4%, its lowest level since 1969, appeared to affirm Powell’s position.
Stocks took a hit, even if they finished off session lows, with the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
booking a fifth straight weekly gain and the S&P 500
SPX,
achieving back-to-back weekly wins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
suffered a 0.2% weekly fall.
“It kind of leaves you shaking your head right now, doesn’t it?” asked Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, in a phone interview.
See: Jobs report tells markets what Fed chairman Powell tried to tell them
Commentary: The blowout jobs report is actually three times stronger than it appears
At some point in the coming months there will need to be “a reconciliation between what the markets think the Fed will do and what Powell says the Fed will do,” Baird said.
The rally could continue for now, Baird said, but he argued it would be wise in the long run to take the Fed at face value. “I think the overall tone of risk taking in the market right now is a little bit too optimistic.”
Money-market traders did react to Friday’s data. Fed funds futures on Friday afternoon reflected a 99.6% probability that the Fed would raise the target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its next policy meeting, on March 22, up from an 82.7% probability on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
For the Fed’s May meeting, the market reflected a 61.3% chance of another quarter-point rise to 5% to 5.25%, the level the Fed has signaled is its expected high-water-mark rate. On Thursday, it saw just a 30% chance of a quarter-point rise in May. But markets still look for a cut by year-end.
Of course, one month’s data do not represent the end of the argument. But unless January’s labor-market strength turns out to be a blip, the hawks on the Fed are likely to dig in and keep rates higher for longer, said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management, in a phone interview.
For markets, the lack of a resolution to the long-simmering disconnect with the Fed could lead to a period of consolidation after an admittedly impressive start to 2023, he said.
Indeed, the momentum behind the market’s rally could be set to continue. It’s been led by tech and other growth stocks that were hammered in last year’s market rout. Market watchers detect a sense of “FOMO,” or fear of missing out, is driving what some have termed a tech-stock “meltup.”
See: Tech stock ‘meltup’ puts Nasdaq-100 on verge of exiting bear market
“The impressive equity rally to start the year has caught cautious institutional investors, hedge funds, and strategists off guard. While overbought conditions are obvious, the near-universal level of skepticism among institutions provides a contrarian degree of support for continued strength,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide, in a Friday note.
And then there’s earnings season, which has so far seen results from around half of the S&P 500.
Companies through Friday had reported lower earnings for the fourth quarter relative to the end of the previous week and relative to the end of the quarter.
The blended earnings decline (a combination of actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) for the fourth quarter was 5.3% through Friday, compared with an earnings decline of 5.1% last week and an earnings decline of 3.3% at the end of the fourth quarter, according to FactSet. If earnings come out negative for the quarter, it would be the first year-over-year decline since the third quarter of 2020.
When it comes to earnings, “there’s definitely been a mood of forgiveness in the market,” said BMO’s Ma.
“I think the market just didn’t want to see a disastrous earnings season,” he said, noting expectations remain for weak earnings in the current quarter and next, with bulls looking into the second half of this year and even into 2024 to get on a better footing.
For the market, the main driver will remain data on inflation and wage growth, Ma said.
Mark Hulbert: Are we in a new bull market for stocks?
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Let’s get ready to rumble.
The Federal Reserve and investors appear to be locked in what one veteran market watcher has described as an epic game of “chicken.” What Fed Chair Jerome Powell says Wednesday could determine the winner.
Here’s the conflict. Fed policy makers have steadily insisted that the fed-funds rate, now at 4.25% to 4.5%, must rise above 5% and, importantly, stay there as the central bank attempts to bring inflation back to its 2% target. Fed-funds futures, however, show money-market traders aren’t fully convinced the rate will top 5%. Perhaps more galling to Fed officials, traders expect the central bank to deliver cuts by year-end.
Stock-market investors have also bought into the latter policy “pivot” scenario, fueling a January surge for beaten down technology and growth stocks, which are particularly interest rate-sensitive. Treasury bonds have rallied, pulling down yields across the curve. And the U.S. dollar has weakened.
To some market watchers, investors now appear way too big for their breeches. They expect Powell to attempt to take them down a peg or two.
How so? Look for Powell to be “unambiguously hawkish,” when he holds a news conference following the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, said Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, in a phone interview.
“Hawkish” is market lingo used to describe a central banker sounding tough on inflation and less worried about economic growth.
In Powell’s case, that would likely mean emphasizing that the labor market remains significantly out of balance, calling for a significant reduction in job openings that will require monetary policy to remain restrictive for a long period, Torres said.
If Powell sounds sufficiently hawkish, “financial conditions will tighten up quickly,” Torres said, in a phone interview. Treasury yields “would rise, tech would drop and the dollar would rise after a message like that.” If not, then expect the tech and Treasury rally to continue and the dollar to get softer.
Indeed, it’s a loosening of financial conditions that’s seen trying Powell’s patience. Looser conditions are represented by a tightening of credit spreads, lower borrowing costs, and higher stock prices that contribute to speculative activity and increased risk taking, which helps fuel inflation. It also helps weaken the dollar, contributes to inflation through higher import costs, Torres said, noting that indexes measuring financial conditions have fallen for 14 straight weeks.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, fred.stlouisfed.org
Powell and the Fed have certainly expressed concerns about the potential for loose financial conditions to undercut their inflation-fighting efforts.
The minutes of the Fed’s December meeting. released in early January, contained this attention-grabbing line: “Participants noted that, because monetary policy worked importantly through financial markets, an unwarranted easing in financial conditions, especially if driven by a misperception by the public of the Committee’s reaction function, would complicate the Committee’s effort to restore price stability.”
That was taken by some investors as a sign that the Fed wasn’t eager to see a sustained stock market rally and might even be inclined to punish financial markets if conditions loosened too far.
Read: The Fed delivered a message to the stock market: Big rallies will prolong pain
If that interpretation is correct, it underlines the notion that the Fed “put” — the central bank’s seemingly longstanding willingness to respond to a plunging market with a loosening of policy — is largely kaput.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite logged its fourth straight weekly rise last week, up 4.3% to end Friday at its highest since Sept. 14. The S&P 500
SPX,
advanced 2.5% to log its highest settlement since Dec. 2, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
rose 1.8%.
Meanwhile, the Fed is almost universally expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate increase on Wednesday. That is a downshift from the series of outsize 75 and 50 basis point hikes it delivered over the course of 2022.
See: Fed set to deliver quarter-point rate increase along with ‘one last hawkish sting in the tail’
Data showing U.S. inflation continues to slow after peaking at a roughly four-decade high last summer alongside expectations for a much weaker, and potentially recessionary, economy in 2023 have stoked bets the Fed won’t be as aggressive as advertised. But a pickup in gasoline and food prices could make for a bounce in January inflation readings, he said, which would give Powell another cudgel to beat back market expectations for easier policy in future meetings.
Torres sees the setup heading into this week’s Fed meeting as similar to the run-up to Powell’s speech at an annual central banking symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last August, in which he delivered a blunt message that the fight against inflation meant economic pain ahead. That spelled doom for what proved to be another of 2023’s many bear-market rallies, starting a slide that took stocks to their lows for the year in October.
But some question how frustrated policy makers really are with the current backdrop.
Sure, financial conditions have loosened in recent weeks, but they remain far tighter than they were a year ago before the Fed embarked on its aggressive tightening campaign, said Kelsey Berro, portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, in a phone interview.
“So from a holistic perspective, the Fed feels they are getting policy more restrictive,” she said, as evidenced, for example, by the significant rise in mortgage rates over the past year.
Still, it’s likely the Fed’s message this week will continue to emphasize that the recent slowing in inflation isn’t enough to declare victory and that further hikes are in the pipeline, Berro said.
For investors and traders, the focus will be on whether Powell continues to emphasize that the biggest risk is the Fed doing too little on the inflation front or shifts to a message that acknowledges the possibility the Fed could overdo it and sink the economy, Berro said.
She expects Powell to eventually deliver that message, but this week’s news conference is probably too early. The Fed won’t update the so-called dot plot, a compilation of forecasts by individual policy makers, or its staff economic forecasts until its March meeting.
That could prove to be a disappointment for investors hoping for a decisive showdown this week.
“Unfortunately, this is the kind of meeting that could end up being anticlimactic,” Berro said.
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Let’s get ready to rumble.
The Federal Reserve and investors appear to be locked in what one veteran market watcher has described as an epic game of “chicken.” What Fed Chair Jerome Powell says Wednesday could determine the winner.
Here’s the conflict. Fed policy makers have steadily insisted that the fed-funds rate, now at 4.25% to 4.5%, must rise above 5% and, importantly, stay there as the central bank attempts to bring inflation back to its 2% target. Fed-funds futures, however, show money-market traders aren’t fully convinced the rate will top 5%. Perhaps more galling to Fed officials, traders expect the central bank to deliver cuts by year-end.
Stock-market investors have also bought into the latter policy “pivot” scenario, fueling a January surge for beaten down technology and growth stocks, which are particularly interest rate-sensitive. Treasury bonds have rallied, pulling down yields across the curve. And the U.S. dollar has weakened.
To some market watchers, investors now appear way too big for their breeches. They expect Powell to attempt to take them down a peg or two.
How so? Look for Powell to be “unambiguously hawkish,” when he holds a news conference following the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, said Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, in a phone interview.
“Hawkish” is market lingo used to describe a central banker sounding tough on inflation and less worried about economic growth.
In Powell’s case, that would likely mean emphasizing that the labor market remains significantly out of balance, calling for a significant reduction in job openings that will require monetary policy to remain restrictive for a long period, Torres said.
If Powell sounds sufficiently hawkish, “financial conditions will tighten up quickly,” Torres said, in a phone interview. Treasury yields “would rise, tech would drop and the dollar would rise after a message like that.” If not, then expect the tech and Treasury rally to continue and the dollar to get softer.
Indeed, it’s a loosening of financial conditions that’s seen trying Powell’s patience. Looser conditions are represented by a tightening of credit spreads, lower borrowing costs, and higher stock prices that contribute to speculative activity and increased risk taking, which helps fuel inflation. It also helps weaken the dollar, contributes to inflation through higher import costs, Torres said, noting that indexes measuring financial conditions have fallen for 14 straight weeks.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, fred.stlouisfed.org
Powell and the Fed have certainly expressed concerns about the potential for loose financial conditions to undercut their inflation-fighting efforts.
The minutes of the Fed’s December meeting. released in early January, contained this attention-grabbing line: “Participants noted that, because monetary policy worked importantly through financial markets, an unwarranted easing in financial conditions, especially if driven by a misperception by the public of the Committee’s reaction function, would complicate the Committee’s effort to restore price stability.”
That was taken by some investors as a sign that the Fed wasn’t eager to see a sustained stock market rally and might even be inclined to punish financial markets if conditions loosened too far.
Read: The Fed delivered a message to the stock market: Big rallies will prolong pain
If that interpretation is correct, it underlines the notion that the Fed “put” — the central bank’s seemingly longstanding willingness to respond to a plunging market with a loosening of policy — is largely kaput.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite logged its fourth straight weekly rise last week, up 4.3% to end Friday at its highest since Sept. 14. The S&P 500
SPX,
advanced 2.5% to log its highest settlement since Dec. 2, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
rose 1.8%.
Meanwhile, the Fed is almost universally expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate increase on Wednesday. That is a downshift from the series of outsize 75 and 50 basis point hikes it delivered over the course of 2022.
See: Fed set to deliver quarter-point rate increase along with ‘one last hawkish sting in the tail’
Data showing U.S. inflation continues to slow after peaking at a roughly four-decade high last summer alongside expectations for a much weaker, and potentially recessionary, economy in 2023 have stoked bets the Fed won’t be as aggressive as advertised. But a pickup in gasoline and food prices could make for a bounce in January inflation readings, he said, which would give Powell another cudgel to beat back market expectations for easier policy in future meetings.
Torres sees the setup heading into this week’s Fed meeting as similar to the run-up to Powell’s speech at an annual central banking symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last August, in which he delivered a blunt message that the fight against inflation meant economic pain ahead. That spelled doom for what proved to be another of 2023’s many bear-market rallies, starting a slide that took stocks to their lows for the year in October.
But some question how frustrated policy makers really are with the current backdrop.
Sure, financial conditions have loosened in recent weeks, but they remain far tighter than they were a year ago before the Fed embarked on its aggressive tightening campaign, said Kelsey Berro, portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, in a phone interview.
“So from a holistic perspective, the Fed feels they are getting policy more restrictive,” she said, as evidenced, for example, by the significant rise in mortgage rates over the past year.
Still, it’s likely the Fed’s message this week will continue to emphasize that the recent slowing in inflation isn’t enough to declare victory and that further hikes are in the pipeline, Berro said.
For investors and traders, the focus will be on whether Powell continues to emphasize that the biggest risk is the Fed doing too little on the inflation front or shifts to a message that acknowledges the possibility the Fed could overdo it and sink the economy, Berro said.
She expects Powell to eventually deliver that message, but this week’s news conference is probably too early. The Fed won’t update the so-called dot plot, a compilation of forecasts by individual policy makers, or its staff economic forecasts until its March meeting.
That could prove to be a disappointment for investors hoping for a decisive showdown this week.
“Unfortunately, this is the kind of meeting that could end up being anticlimactic,” Berro said.
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The S&P 500 is on the verge of achieving its first “golden cross” in two-and-a-half years, but that doesn’t mean stocks are destined for more gains over the coming year.
The golden-cross indicator is used by technical analysts as a sign that a particular upward trend in markets or currencies is gaining momentum. Barring a massive selloff in stocks, the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average should cross its 200-day moving average in a matter of days.
If it happens, it would mark the first such event since July, 2020, according to FactSet data. Data show it often does precede further gains for stocks over the following six months, or a year, but not always.
The S&P 500 has seen 52 golden crosses since 1930, according to Dow Jones Market Data, which used back-tested data to account for the index’s performance prior to its creation in 1957. In that time, stocks were trading higher one year later 71% of the time.
But there have been some notable exceptions during periods of heightened volatility.
The S&P 500
SPX,
declined during the 12 months that followed the golden cross that occurred on April 1, 2019, according to Dow Jones Market Data. This happened again in 1999 as the dot-com bubble burst, and also following a golden cross that occurred in1986, preceding the “Black Monday” crash.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
achieved its most recent golden cross back in December and stocks have since moved higher.
Technical analysts who spoke with MarketWatch said that while the golden cross can be a helpful sign that a given trend probably has more room to run, it helps to look for other signs as well.
“The way we think about it is all big rallies start with a golden cross, but not all golden crosses lead to a big rally. It’s just one piece of the puzzle,” said Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer.
There have been some other encouraging signs that U.S. stocks could be headed for a lasting turnaround. One example Wald cited was the so-called advance-decline line, which recently reached a new cycle high.
According to technical analysts, that’s a measure of market breadth which shows whether the major equity index’s gains are being powered by a broad range of stocks, or a handful.
The advance-decline line hit 2.2 on Thursday, its highest level in nearly a year.
The fact that cyclical sectors like technology and consumer discretionary are among the best performers since the start of the year is another encouraging sign, according to Wald.
FactSet data show that communication services, consumer discretionary and information technology are the three best-performing sectors of the S&P 500 so far this year, with communications services up more than 15% since Jan. 1.
However, with so much uncertainty about monetary policy and the macroeconomic outlook, some analysts doubt that the stock-market will simply return to business as usual so quickly, even as inflation has moderated over the past six months, taking some of the pressure off the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates.
One analysts warned that traders who are hungry for confirmation that the market sell-off of 2022 is indeed over should approach indicators like the golden cross with trepidation, despite its historical record.
“In the past 20 years there have been more secular trends, and the golden crosses have worked,” said Will Tamplin, senior analyst at Fairlead Strategies. “But in an environment that’s a little more choppy, you can get the whipsaws. “
The S&P 500 and SPDR S&P 500 exchange-traded fund
SPY,
touched new intraday highs for the year on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
briefly traded at its highest level since September. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on track for a weekly gain of more than 2.3%, what would be its best such performance since November.
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Shares of Chevron Corp.
CVX,
fell 0.7% in premarket trading Friday after the oil and gas giant missed fourth-quarter profit expectations, while revenue rose above forecasts. Net income rose to $6.35 billion, or $3.33 a share, from $5.06 billion, or $2.63 a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding nonrecurring items, adjusted earnings per share of $4.09 was below the FactSet consensus of $4.33. Sales grew 17.3% to $56.47 billion, beating the FactSet consensus of $52.68 billion. Net oil-equivalent production fell 3% to 3.01 million barrels per day, as U.S. production rose 4% but international production dropped 7% due primarily to the end of concessions in Thailand and Indonesia. For Chevron’s upstream business, which includes exploration and production, U.S. earnings declined 11.9% to $2.62 billion while international earnings jumped 31.2% to $2.87 billion. “We delivered record earnings and cash flow in 2022, while increasing investments and growing U.S. production to a company record,” said Chief Executive Mike Wirth. The stock has gained 5.6% over the past three months through Thursday, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
XLE,
has tacked on 4.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
advanced 6.0%.
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U.S. stocks opened higher on Thursday as optimism over Tesla’s earnings results and a stronger-than-expected GDP report left investors in a better mood following Wednesday’s intraday selloff.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Wednesday’s session up 10 points after falling roughly 400 points at the lows earlier in the session. The S&P 500 finished little-changed after erasing its early losses, while the Nasdaq ended lower.
Stocks opened higher after a flurry of economic data including a fourth quarter GDP report that came in stronger than expected, but the focus was on the latest batch of earnings, which helped to revive investors’ optimism following disappointing guidance from Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
earlier in the week.
The economy grew at a robust 2.9% annual pace to close out 2022, according to the first estimate of fourth quarter GDP, released Thursday morning — the latest sign that the U.S. economy is holding up well despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes.
“Thursday’s GDP report suggests that the economy is relatively strong even in the face of aggressive measures by the Federal Reserve to calm inflation,” said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer, BMO Family Office, in emailed commentary.
Stocks rose after the data were released as investors found solace in the latest signs that a soft landing for the U.S. economy — a scenario where growth slows, but a recession is avoided — remains possible, or even likely.
“This is a bit of a relief rally,” said Christopher Zook, chairman and chief investment officer of CAZ Investments.
However, corporate earnings and guidance are still the primary concern for investors, along with expectations about when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, Zook said.
The labor market also showed signs of strength despite more reports of layoffs in the tech, finance and media spaces, as the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level since April. Investors also digested durable goods orders for December. New home sales for December will be published at 10 a.m. ET.
Investors also celebrated a surge in Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
shares premarket after the firm released well-received results that showed record quarterly profits.
Disappointing guidance from technology behemoth Microsoft had clobbered stocks on Wednesday as traders worried it signaled not just difficulties for the sector but also broadly worsening economic conditions.
However, before the end of Wednesday’s session, Microsoft shares had recovered most of their 4.5% loss and the S&P 500 finished the session almost exactly where it began, according to data from FactSet.
As for the Federal Reserve, the central bank is expected to slow the pace of interest rate hikes when it next week raises its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.
Companies announcing results on Thursday include: McDonald’s
MCD,
Intel
INTC,
Comcast
CMCSA,
Visa
V,
Dow
DOW,
Whirl pool
WHR,
Western Digital
WDC,
and Northrop Grumman
NOC,
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Dow Inc. DOW followed up its downbeat fourth-quarter earnings report with another release saying it would cut 2,000 jobs as part of its $1 billion cost-cutting plan. The cuts represent about 5.6% of the chemicals and specialty materials company’s workforce, according to FactSet data. Dow said it will also shut down select assets as it evaluates its global asset base, particularly in Europe. The company said it will record a charge of $550 million to $725 million in the first quarter of 2023 for costs resulting from its cost-cutting actions, which primarily include severance and benefit costs. Earlier, the company reported…
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U.S. stocks finished lower on Tuesday with only the Dow clinging to gains for the session as investors digested more earnings reports from major American firms. The S&P 500 SPX shed roughly 3 points, or 0.1%, to finish just shy of 4,017. The Nasdaq Composite COMP dropped by 30 points, or 0.3%, to roughly 11,334. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 104 points, or 0.3%, to finish at roughly 33,734. More earnings from major U.S. companies, including Microsoft Corp. MSFT are due out after the bell.
…
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U.S. stocks finished at their highest level in a month on Monday as strong performances by consumer-technology giant Apple Inc.
AAPL,
and chipmaker NVIDIA Inc.
NVDA,
pushed the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
further into the lead. The Nasdaq gained roughly 223 points, or 2%, to finish at around 11,364, bringing the tech-heavy index’s year-to-date gain to 8.6%, according to FactSet data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
gained 254 points, or 0.8%, to close at roughly 33,630. The S&P 500
SPX,
gained 47 points, or 1.2%, to 4,020. The Dow is up approximately 1.5% since the start of the year, while the S&P 500 is up roughly 4.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has outperformed the other major U.S. indexes since the start of 2023, a reversal of the trend from 2022, when the value-heavy Dow outperformed the Nasdaq by the widest margin since 2000, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Investors await a batch of earnings from megacap technology stocks this week, including Microsoft Corp
MSFT,
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Electric vehicle buyers in the U.S. can now get a purchase tax credit from the government, and it has pushed the price of several high-volume EVs below the average price paid for a new car in America.
There are currently seven high-volume EVs that cost less than the average new car, including two
Tesla
(ticker: TSLA) models. Buyers should look at those if they are thinking about going electric.
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The U.S. Treasury Department began taking “extraordinary measures” on Thursday to keep the federal government current on its bills, while giving Congress more time to come up with a debt ceiling deal.
Those special measures allow the Treasury to keep paying its bills, including paying holders of government debt what they are due, while also, for now, continuing the issuance of bills and notes as scheduled in the near $24 trillion Treasury market, the world’s biggest debt market, to replace maturing debt.
“There’s constant maturities and constant new issuance,” said Jim Vogel, an interest-rate strategist at FHN Financial, in an interview Thursday. “Until the Treasury calls a halt to auctions they go on as normal.”
In part, new note auctions on deck will replace maturing bonds issued years ago, which should help give confidence to investors that the U.S. government intends to fully repay principal and interest, as promised. It also helps bide time for Congress to strike a deal to increase or suspend the existing debt limit.
“Your early warning system is when 6-month bills get cheaper,” Vogel said, adding that a wobble in that part of the Treasury market could signal worries by investors that top lawmakers could fail to reach a debt ceiling deal by this summer, which could then raise the threat level of a U.S. government default.
The U.S. debt limit was first set in 1917, and already has been increased or suspended 102 times since World War II, according to David Kelly, chief global strategist at JP Morgan Funds, in a recent client note.
The government had been approaching its current debt limit of $31.385 trillion, prompting Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday to deploy special measures to keep the government current on its bills, including making payments to bondholders, in moves she outlined a week ago.
Kelly said the Treasury has leeway to make adjustments to postpone “our real rendezvous with disaster” potentially until June, but that from an economic and financial perspective a U.S. default would be “an unmitigated disaster.”
Tax payments due to the U.S. government from corporations and households this spring also factor into the bigger debt-limit picture, while also influencing the final deadline for Congress to avoid an default on America’s debt.
“We are coming up to the March corporate tax day,” said Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities, by phone Thursday. “That could boost the Treasury’s balances,” he said, while also noting the influx from taxes last was higher than anticipated.
With the ultimate showdown likely months away there are no discernible ripples in financial markets right now, but investors and analysts do seem to be paying much closer attention to the threat at a much earlier date than in past episodes, market watchers said.
Blame the intraparty battle between House Republicans that saw Kevin McCarthy elected speaker on Jan. 7 after a historic 15 ballots – and only after agreeing to a series of concessions to a small group of far-right conservatives.
Investors are “talking about it early because it came on the heels of a very difficult election of the speaker of the House and the sense that there’s now much more leverage that a few members of Congress may have to force this crisis that’s more likely to hit later in the summer,” said Christopher Smart, chief global strategist at Barings and head of the Barings Investment Institute, in a phone interview.
Some recent history underscores the concern. It took all of then-Speaker John Boehner’s political capital – “and then some” – to finally secure a vote among the Republican caucus on raising the debt limit during a similar showdown in 2011, Smart noted, observing that Boehner had “much more leeway” than McCarthy.
“So if there are five or more members who won’t vote” on raising the limit “without certain conditions being met,” it’s easy to imagine potentially ugly scenarios that could rattle markets, he said.
Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley said Thursday in an interview with Bloomberg that a U.S. default would be a “huge blow” to markets, but also that a contingency plan exits if it happens.
“The way it works is if you actually run out of money, the Treasury will decide what payments to present to the Fed,” Dudley said. “Presumably, the Treasury will decide to prioritize debt repayment and interest payments, so there isn’t a technical default. The Fed will basically honor the payments the Treasury present.”
The Fed also could step in to shore up market functioning in the Treasury market, if needed.
“What we saw in 2011 is that the Treasury market got stronger until we got close to the deadline,” Dudley said. “People don’t want to buy Treasury bills that are maturing right around the time the debt limit could be binding.”
As a result of a 2011 debt-ceiling standoff, credit rating firm Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. credit ratings to AA from AAA.
U.S. stocks declined for a third straight day on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
losing 252.40 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500
SPX,
shed 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
dropped 1%.
—Greg Robb contributed reporting to this article.
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CNBC’s Diana Olick digs into today’s housing data. With CNBC’s Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami.
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