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Tag: Dow Jones Industrial Average

  • World shares, US futures advance after AI fears drag Wall Street lower

    By ELAINE KURTENBACH, AP Business Writer

    BANGKOK (AP) — European shares were higher Friday after a mixed day of trading in Asia, as worries over risks linked to massive investments in artificial intelligence and a potential U.S.-Iran conflict weighed on major benchmarks.

    Germany’s DAX rose 0.2% to 25,103.32 and the CAC 40 in Paris was up 0.7% at 8,460.35. Britain’s FTSE 100 picked up 0.4% to 10,672.75.

    The future for the S&P 500 was up 0.3% while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2%.

    Associated Press

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  • US stocks open higher and gold tops $5,000 an ounce

    NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks opened with modest gains Monday, as earnings season kicks into a higher gear and investors eye the next policy meeting of the Federal Reserve.

    Associated Press

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  • The US is taking control of Venezuela and targeting Greenland. The Dow could still hit 50,000

    (CNN) — The United States attacked Venezuela and President Donald Trump is threatening to take Greenland “the hard way.” All the while, the US has an uncertain economic outlook and a weak jobs report.

    But the Dow Jones Industrial Average could still hit a record 50,000 points on Monday.

    The Dow, which consists of large companies that are thought to be representative of the market, usually reflects broader American sentiment. When tensions are high or people are gloomy, the Dow tends to drop; when people sing a more positive tune, the Dow trends upward.

    Now, Americans are facing a stark political divide: strikes in Venezuela, protests against ICE following the fatal shooting of a Minneapolis mother, the economy capping off 2025 with weak job gains and intentions to “do something on Greenland, whether they like it or not.”

    That should mean the Dow is suffering, not nearing a record high. So, why is it contradicting history?

    Economic impact over big headlines

    Wall Street is more concerned with the economic impact of Trump’s political moves, such as whether strikes in Venezuela could disrupt the flow of oil.

    But Trump has proposed that the US will invest in Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, potentially tapping into the country’s crude — which amounts to about a fifth of the world’s global reserves, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

    It could increase defense spending, but not enough to spook the market, said Jay Hatfield, chief executive at Infrastructure Capital Advisors.

    “It’s really critical to focus on the economic drivers of the stock market and recognize that the political and international affairs issues are just that, unless they’re extreme,” he said.

    No official deals have been reached, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNN’s Kristen Holmes, but there was “tremendous interest” from major oil companies after Friday’s meeting between administration officials and executives.

    Opening up the flow of oil would boost the economy, noted Hatfield, which is a more optimistic outlook for investors.

    The index continued to post gains throughout the week as America’s tensions shifted inward. On Friday, the Dow gained another 237 points.

    There’s a few reasons for optimism: Trump ordered his “representatives” to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds to drive down housing costs, investors are looking forward to AI adoption and there haven’t been mass layoffs, Hatfield said.

    The University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey showed that sentiment increased in January for the second consecutive month, to a preliminary reading of 54, up from December’s 52.9. Most people were surveyed before the capture of Nicolás Maduro.

    Americans have a more sour outlook on Trump’s economy due to concerns about more expensive groceries and services. But it’s not translating to consumer spending, which has continued to support the economy.

    US retail sales on Black Friday, for instance, climbed 4.1% compared with last year, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse data.

    It’s largely due to the K-shaped economy, where wealthier Americans continue to spend as their wallets are bolstered by the strong stock market, wage gains and higher home values. Meanwhile, lower income households pull back on spending because of the slowing job market, high debt and inflation.

    “They’re a little bit cautious that jobs aren’t being created, but they’re not losing jobs either,” said Paul Christopher, the head of Wells Fargo Investment Institute’s global investment strategy. And this year is expected to have strong job growth, he said.

    Interest rate cut optimism

    Investors are still optimistic about the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates, after three back-to-back rate cuts in 2025, noted Hatfield.

    There could be more volatility in the coming weeks, though, because of earnings season and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ December Consumer Price Index report releases, according to Christopher.

    The “no-hire no-fire” jobs report gives the Fed a green light to cut rates, he said.

    “The markets look through the other stuff, the political stuff, and they’re going to focus on what’s going to be, we think, a pretty strong economy in 2026. So whether we hit Dow (50,000) on Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday, we’ll sort of look at the larger picture here,” Christopher said.

    Auzinea Bacon and CNN

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  • Wall Street rises on Big Tech gains and approaches records

    By DAMIAN J. TROISE, AP Business Writer

    NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks rose on Wall Street Tuesday morning and approached more all-time highs.

    Associated Press

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Investors might not want to take U.S. inflation numbers in November at face value

    A food shopper browses for groceries ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday at an Albertsons supermarket in Redmond, Washington, U.S., November 24, 2025.

    David Ryder | Reuters

    The U.S. inflation numbers in November looked supremely encouraging, with the annual headline rate coming in 0.4 percentage points less than expected. But don’t get too happy about them yet.

    It’s the first consumer price report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics since the U.S. government shutdown ended: October’s figures vanished into the void because the agency was “unable to retroactively collect these data.”

    The BLS added that November’s CPI “did not include 1-month percent changes for November 2025 where the October 2025 data are missing.” It also said that certain survey data were “carried forward to October 2025 from September 2025.”

    Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha said it appears the BLS “put in zero inflation in multiple categories” when calculating housing inflation in some cities.

    In other words, it’s a noisy report. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell once described setting interest rates as “navigating by the stars under cloudy skies.” With November’s CPI report, the stars aren’t just obscured by clouds — they could be mirages, unidentified flying objects, a seagull that picked up an LED light from the beach.

    Nonetheless, investors celebrated the numbers. The CPI report, along with a 10.2% surge in Micron shares on the back of an expectation-busting earnings report, lifted major indexes.

    Perhaps it’s the holidays suffusing the air with unbridled cheer. Or maybe it’s all rather like having a feast during Christmas — the calories only count in the new year.

    — CNBC’s Sean Conlon contributed to this report.

    What you need to know today

    And finally…

    The Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, UK, on Monday, Dec. 15, 2025.

    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

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  • Nvidia CEO says the company is in a no-win situation amid AI-bubble chatter, leaked meeting reveals | Fortune

    Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told employees this week that the company has been pushed into a no-win situation by mounting fears of an AI bubble, even as it continues to post blockbuster results, according to audio of an internal all-hands meeting reviewed by Business Insider.

    “The market did not appreciate our incredible quarter,” Huang said on Thursday, less than 24 hours after Nvidia reported another set of record earnings and said it had “visibility” into half a trillion dollars of revenue lined up for the rest of 2025 and 2026.

    Instead of rewarding the beat, investors delivered a shocking reversal that saw shares briefly rising Thursday before turning lower, dragging down the broader AI trade by the end of the session.

    Huang said expectations around Nvidia have become so extreme that Wall Street now sees danger in both directions.

    “If we delivered a bad quarter, it is evidence there’s an AI bubble. If we delivered a great quarter, we are fueling the AI bubble,” he told employees. “If we were off by just a hair, if it looked even a little bit creaky, the whole world would’ve fallen apart.”

    The comments offer a rare glimpse into how the face of the AI boom views the growing backlash to it, and how closely he is watching the market’s whiplash response.

    A blowout quarter that spooked investors

    On paper, Nvidia gave investors about everything they had asked for. The chipmaker reported another surge in sales of its data-center processors, the workhorses that power large AI models (and Nvidia’s revenues), and raised its guidance for the current quarter. It was the kind of performance expected to kick off another six-month rally, investors were saying

    Instead, the stock’s initial jump gave way to a broad selloff. Nvidia climbed as much as 5% early in Thursday’s session before closing down roughly 3%, as traders rotated out of the Big Tech names most closely associated with the AI boom. 

    The reversal extended what has become a bruising stretch for the so-called AI trade. After months of a breathless rally, investors are increasingly anxious that tech giants are spending too aggressively on data centers, GPUs, and networking gear, with no guarantee they can earn enough revenue to get those investments back. Some are also focusing on the complex, debt-heavy financing structures behind the AI infrastructure build-out, with credit markets starting to flash early warning signs.

    Layered on top of that are fresh macro jitters. A shutdown-delayed U.S. jobs report, released the same morning, showed stronger-than-expected hiring in September, but a higher unemployment rate; this conflicting data did little to clarify whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.

    Some investors are closely watching different statements from Fed presidents to try to read the tea leaves, but with the earnings season winding down and no obvious catalyst between now and the Fed’s next decision, it appears that many other investors are using the volatility to lock in profits from the year’s earlier rally—and get out of the market.

    “The broader narrative hasn’t broken; it’s simply being tested right now,” Mark Hackett at Nationwide told Bloomberg. “Periods like this often act as a release valve rather than signaling a true trend reversal.” 

    ‘We’re basically holding the planet together

    Inside Nvidia, Huang suggested no one should be surprised that investors are jumpy when so much of the AI story is being projected onto a single company.

    He referenced online memes that jokingly describe Nvidia as the linchpin of the global economy and the only thing standing between the U.S. and recession.

    “Have you guys seen some of them?” he asked employees. “We’re basically holding the planet together—and it’s not untrue.”

    That level of mythos has helped propel Nvidia’s market value into the stratosphere, making it the world’s most valuable public company. But Huang made clear that it has also turned every earnings day into a high-wire act.

    “The expectations are so high that if we miss by just a little bit, people think the whole story is broken,” he said.

    Still, Huang pushed back on the idea that Nvidia is responsible for the frothier parts of the AI trade. The company’s job, he emphasized, is to build the compute infrastructure others need, not to police how the market prices demand.

    Joking about losing $500 billion

    Amid the pressure, Huang kept the meeting light with whistling-past-the-graveyard-esque humor about Nvidia’s wild swings.

    He joked about the “good old days” when the company had a $5 trillion market capitalization, a playful exaggeration of its actual peak valuation—before noting just how much value has evaporated in recent weeks.

    “Nobody in history has ever lost $500 billion in a few weeks,” he said. “You’ve got to be worth a lot to lose $500 billion in a few weeks.”

    Huang told employees he was “delighted” by the quarter and proud of their work, stressing the company’s underlying business remains strong even if markets are punishing them for it.

    Eva Roytburg

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  • Nvidia Set to Replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average

    Nvidia Set to Replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average

    (Bloomberg) — Nvidia Corp., the chipmaker at the heart of the artificial intelligence boom, is joining the oldest of Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks.

    Most Read from Bloomberg

    The company will replace rival Intel Corp. in the 128-year-old Dow Jones Industrial Average prior to the start of trading on Nov. 8, S&P Dow Jones Indices said in a statement late Friday. Sherwin-Williams Co. is also joining, replacing Dow Inc.

    The addition of Nvidia to the blue-chip index is a testament to the power of the AI-driven rally that’s pushed the chipmaker up 900% in the past 24 months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only major US equity benchmark that didn’t hold Nvidia — until now.

    “Nvidia is a well-run company and joining the Dow demonstrates just how powerful its rally has been in recent years after it was at the right place at the right time when no one else was,” said Scott Colyer, chief executive at Advisors Asset Management.

    The Santa Clara, California-based company has been the poster child of the euphoria surrounding AI and the biggest driver of stock market gains. The chipmaker ended the week with a market value of $3.32 trillion, about $50 billion shy of Apple Inc. Shares were up 3.2% in post-market trading, putting Nvidia in a position to dethrone Apple as the world’s most valuable company as soon as Monday if the gains hold.

    Intel joined the gauge in November 1999 when it was added along with Microsoft Corp., SBC Communications and Home Depot Inc. Once the industry leader in computer processors, Intel has been recently struggling under a turnaround plan. The company has slashed spending in 2024, cut jobs and suspended investor payouts. Shares have lost 54% this year, and sank another 2% after the bell.

    “Intel has lagged in a huge way,” said Adam Sarhan, founder of 50 Park Investments. “Now, the Dow is evolving. You don’t want to see stocks that were there 30 years ago. You want to see what’s the strongest that survive today.”

    Midland, Michigan-based Dow Inc. has been in the blue-chip index since 2019, when it was spun off by former parent DowDuPont.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which first started as an index of 12 industrial stocks that included General Electric Co., has faced criticism for being a much narrower equities gauge than the S&P 500 Index or the Nasdaq 100 and lacking technology stocks that have dominated markets in recent years.

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  • What’s wrong with the Nasdaq? One troubling thing for the bulls’ case

    What’s wrong with the Nasdaq? One troubling thing for the bulls’ case

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Strong earnings, macro conditions propelling stocks up

    CNBC Daily Open: Strong earnings, macro conditions propelling stocks up

    The Morgan Stanley headquarters in New York, US, on Wednesday, Dec. 27, 2023.

    Angus Mordant | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    Markets rise on upbeat earnings
    U.S. stocks
    resumed their advance Wednesday, as Morgan Stanley and United Airlines earnings topped estimates. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Thursday. The CSI 300 real estate index fell nearly 7% even as Beijing announced new measures to support the industry.

    Follow Decision Time for the ECB live
    Market watchers are expecting the European Central Bank to cut rates by 25 basis points at its meeting later today. If that projection pans out, it’d be the third time the ECB’s cutting rates this year. Catch today’s action on Decision Time, CNBC’s live show analyzing the decision, starting 1 p.m. BST.

    New support measures for real estate
    China’s housing ministry said Thursday it’ll broaden its “whitelist” initiative to all commercial housing projects, which aims to complete the construction of unfinished homes. The ministry also announced that bank loans to developers will be speeded up and nearly double to 4 million trillion yuan by the end of 2024, from the 2.23 trillion yuan already approved.

    Potential probe of Intel
    Intel is potentially facing a security review by the Cybersecurity Association of China. Officials allege that Intel’s CPU chips possess vulnerabilities in security management and flaws in product quality. CSAC also accused Intel of using remote management features to surveil users.

    [PRO] A shining sector that’s not tech nor utilities
    Big Tech stocks, fueled by excitement over generative artificial intelligence, have been responsible for most of this year’s rally in the market. Gen AI is powered by energy-hungry data centers, which benefits the utilities sector. But there’s a new group of stocks that’s fast becoming one of the best-performing sectors for the year.

    The bottom line

    The pullback in stocks on Wednesday was brief, like a marathoner pausing to drink before pounding the road again.

    “Yesterday’s weakness does not change the intermediate and long-term uptrends, and we believe it will prove to be just a pullback within the context of a longer-term uptrend,” Piper Sandler said in a note.

    After dipping from its 43,000 level on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.79% Wednesday to break that barrier again, closing at 43,077.70.

    The S&P 500 climbed 0.47% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.28%.

    Markets are basking in the glow of a positive earnings season so far. Around 80% of the 50 S&P companies that have posted earnings have topped expectations, according to FactSet data.

    Morgan Stanley, for one, reported third-quarter figures that surpassed earnings and revenue estimates. The bank’s profit jumped 32% from a year ago, far outstripping the LSEG estimate and topping several other big banks’ income growth.

    The investment banking business was a main source of profit for Morgan Stanley. Supported by the U.S. Federal Reserve beginning its rate-cutting cycle, initial public offerings and mergers and acquisitions are emerging from hibernation, injecting fresh life into Wall Street banks.

    Morgan Stanley popped 6.5% after results. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF has jumped more than 6% over the past five trading days. In another sign of the rally broadening, the banking ETF has outstripped the S&P 500’s climb of less than 1% during the same period.

    “We anticipate the macroeconomic and earnings environments to remain favorable,” UBS says, “which supports staying invested in equities.”

    With monetary policy easing, the economy staying strong and inflation cooling — import prices dipped 0.4% for September, according to the U.S. Labor Department — stocks look like they have stamina to keep going higher.

    – CNBC’s Hugh Son, Alex Harring, Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han and Jesse Pound contributed to this story.    

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Strong earnings, macro conditions driving stocks higher

    CNBC Daily Open: Strong earnings, macro conditions driving stocks higher

    The Morgan Stanley headquarters in New York, US, on Monday, Oct. 14, 2024. 

    Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    The bottom line

    The pullback in stocks on Wednesday was brief, like a marathoner pausing to drink before pounding the road again.

    “Yesterday’s weakness does not change the intermediate and long-term uptrends, and we believe it will prove to be just a pullback within the context of a longer-term uptrend,” Piper Sandler said in a note.

    After dipping from its 43,000 level on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.79% Wednesday to break that barrier again, closing at 43,077.70.

    The S&P 500 climbed 0.47% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.28%.

    Markets are basking in the glow of a positive earnings season so far. Around 80% of the 50 S&P companies that have posted earnings have topped expectations, according to FactSet data.

    Morgan Stanley, for one, reported third-quarter figures that surpassed earnings and revenue estimates. The bank’s profit jumped 32% from a year ago, far outstripping the LSEG estimate and topping several other big banks’ income growth.

    The investment banking business was a main source of profit for Morgan Stanley. Supported by the U.S. Federal Reserve beginning its rate-cutting cycle, initial public offerings and mergers and acquisitions are emerging from hibernation, injecting fresh life into Wall Street banks.

    Morgan Stanley popped 6.5% after results. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF has jumped more than 6% over the past five trading days. In another sign of the rally broadening, the banking ETF has outstripped the S&P 500’s climb of less than 1% during the same period.

    “We anticipate the macroeconomic and earnings environments to remain favorable,” UBS says, “which supports staying invested in equities.”

    With monetary policy easing, the economy staying strong and inflation cooling — import prices dipped 0.4% for September, according to the U.S. Labor Department — stocks look like they have stamina to keep going higher.

    – CNBC’s Hugh Son, Alex Harring, Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han and Jesse Pound contributed to this story.    

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  • These 5 portfolio stocks outperformed the market’s incredible run since our September Monthly Meeting

    These 5 portfolio stocks outperformed the market’s incredible run since our September Monthly Meeting

    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

    Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images

    It’s been a stellar month for the U.S. stock market, driven largely by easing monetary policy.

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Bullish sentiment and broadening rally – markets are in a good place

    CNBC Daily Open: Bullish sentiment and broadening rally – markets are in a good place

    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on April 5, 2024.

    Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    Breather from rally
    U.S. markets fell Tuesday, weighed down by a
    drop in semiconductor stocks and a 8.1% slide in UnitedHealth. Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly lower Wednesday. Asian chip stocks, like Tokyo Electron and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, retreated on news of ASML’s disappointing forecast and reports of the U.S. possibly imposing export controls on AI chips.

    ASML slumps
    Shares of semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML plunged 16% on a downbeat earnings report. For 2025, the Netherlands-based company thinks net sales will come in at the lower half of its previous projection. ASML missed expectations on net bookings by 3 billion euros for the September quarter, though net sales beat expectations.

    Better than ChatGPT
    Alibaba updated its artificial-intelligence translation tool, based on a model called Marco MT, on Wednesday. The Chinese e-commerce giant said its product performs better than those by Google and DeepL, according to an assessment by benchmarking tool FLoRes. Fifteen languages are supported by Alibaba’s AI-powered translation tool.

    Banks beat expectations
    Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citigroup beat earnings and revenue estimates for their third quarter. Goldman was the standout performer: Its profit jumped 45% from a year earlier. Year on year, Bank of America experienced a 12% drop in net income and Citigroup’s net income fell 8.6%.

    [PRO] Repositioning for slower rate cuts
    September’s strong jobs report and higher-than-expected inflation reading mean that the U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to repeat its jumbo 50-basis-point rate cut at its November meeting. Here’s how strategists are repositioning in view of changing rate cut expectations.

    The bottom line

    Despite markets falling Tuesday, there’s still plenty to like about their current state.

    Weighed down by ASML’s 16% dive and a report by Bloomberg on potential AI-chip export controls, semiconductor stocks like Nvidia and AMD fell 4.7% and 5.2% respectively. That gave the VanEck Semiconductor ETF its worst day since Sept. 3. As a result, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 1.01%.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which just yesterday was basking in its accomplishment at closing above the 43,000 level for the first time, fell 0.75% to dip into the 42,000 territory again. UnitedHealth’s 8.1% drop dragged down the Dow.

    Last, the S&P 500 retreated 0.76%.

    Still, investors are the most bullish in four years, according to the October BofA Global Fund Manager Survey. They’re also optimistic about the economy: 74% investors believe the U.S. will avoid a recession.

    Anticipation of more rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and hopes that Beijing will unleash more stimulus to boost its economy are driving up investor sentiment, according to Michael Hartnett, an investment strategist at BofA.

    Indeed, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who’s a member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, noted that the central bank is “a long way from where [rates are] likely to settle.” That means “the decisions that are really in front of us are ones about how quickly to adjust towards that level” – not whether to keep rates high in light of how strong recent economic data has been.

    Another positive sign for markets is how the S&P and Dow hit all-time highs on Monday, but the Nasdaq was still a few percentage points away from its peak. “This subtle divergence is technical evidence that the market has been moving away from the Magnificent Seven mega-caps,” wrote Piper Sandler’s chief market technician Craig Johnson.

    – CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han and Alex Harring contributed to this story.    

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Bullish sentiment and broadening rally – plenty to like about markets

    CNBC Daily Open: Bullish sentiment and broadening rally – plenty to like about markets

    Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 17, 2024. 

    Brendan McDermid | Reuters

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    Breather from rally
    U.S. markets fell Tuesday, weighed down by a
    drop in semiconductor stocks and a 8.1% slide in UnitedHealth. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index lost 0.8% as sectors diverged in performance. Tech stocks fell 6.36%, while telecoms stocks rose 1.97%. Separately, euro zone industrial production increased 1.8% between July and August, according to Eurostat.

    Banks beat expectations
    Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citigroup beat earnings and revenue estimates for their third quarter. Goldman was the standout performer: Its profit jumped 45% from a year earlier. Year on year, Bank of America experienced a 12% drop in net income and Citigroup’s net income fell 8.6%.

    ASML slumps
    Shares of semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML plunged 16% on a downbeat earnings report. For 2025, the Netherlands-based company thinks net sales will come in at the lower half of its previous projection. ASML missed expectations on net bookings by 3 billion euros for the September quarter, though net sales beat expectations.

    Israel might not hit oil facilities
    After Israel reportedly told the U.S. it’s not planning to strike Iran’s oil facilities, prices for both West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures fell more than 4%. Earlier this week, OPEC cut its forecast for daily oil demand growth in 2024 to 1.9 million barrels per day from 2 million bpd. That was the third consecutive time this year it’s lowered expectations.

    [PRO] S&P 500 at 6,400?
    Stocks seem unstoppable. Two years into a bull market, the S&P 500 has been constantly hitting new closing highs. History suggests the bull tends to stall, or at least trip on itself, in its third year. But UBS thinks the S&P can buck the trend in 2025 and soar to 6,400, implying an upside of 10% from Tuesday’s close.

    The bottom line

    Despite markets falling Tuesday, there’s still plenty to like about their current state.

    Weighed down by ASML’s 16% dive and a report by Bloomberg on potential AI-chip export controls, semiconductor stocks like Nvidia and AMD fell 4.7% and 5.2% respectively. That gave the VanEck Semiconductor ETF its worst day since Sept. 3. As a result, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 1.01%.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which just yesterday was basking in its accomplishment at closing above the 43,000 level for the first time, fell 0.75% to dip into the 42,000 territory again. UnitedHealth’s 8.1% drop dragged down the Dow.

    Last, the S&P 500 retreated 0.76%.

    Still, investors are the most bullish in four years, according to the October BofA Global Fund Manager Survey. They’re also optimistic about the economy: 74% investors believe the U.S. will avoid a recession.

    Anticipation of more rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and hopes that Beijing will unleash more stimulus to boost its economy are driving up investor sentiment, according to Michael Hartnett, an investment strategist at BofA.

    Indeed, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who’s a member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, noted that the central bank is “a long way from where [rates are] likely to settle.” That means “the decisions that are really in front of us are ones about how quickly to adjust towards that level” – not whether to keep rates high in light of how strong recent economic data has been.

    Another positive sign for markets is how the S&P and Dow hit all-time highs on Monday, but the Nasdaq was still a few percentage points away from its peak. “This subtle divergence is technical evidence that the market has been moving away from the Magnificent Seven mega-caps,” wrote Piper Sandler’s chief market technician Craig Johnson.

    – CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han and Alex Harring contributed to this story.  

    Correction: An earlier version of this report misstated the day of U.S. stock movement.  

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  • CNBC Daily Open: With an unchanged PPI, the Fed’s near the finish line

    CNBC Daily Open: With an unchanged PPI, the Fed’s near the finish line

    A television station broadcasts the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024.

    Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    Winning week for markets
    All
    major U.S. indexes rose Friday on the back of encouraging inflation data and positive earnings from big banks. That gave them a winning week. Asia-Pacific markets mostly traded higher Monday. China’s Shanghai Composite rose around 2% in choppy trading. Over the weekend, Beijing reported a lower-than-expected consumer inflation rate and producer prices falling for September.

    Tesla’s Cybercab and Robovan
    Tesla shares slumped 8.8% after the company’s “We, Robot” event disappointed investors. At the Thursday night event, CEO Elon Musk unveiled the Cybercab, a two-seater with no steering wheels or pedals, and the Robovan, an autonomous vehicle that has a big capacity. But Musk offered little other details, causing analysts to cast doubt on the company.

    More assurances from China
    In a press briefing held Saturday, Chinese Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an told reporters the space for Beijing to increase its budget deficit is “rather large,” but the government is still discussing stimulus plans, according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese. Lan also announced measures to support employment and the real estate industry.

    Banks’ earnings in good shape
    JPMorgan Chase, the biggest bank in the U.S., reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat estimates. Net interest income grew 3% from a year ago and helped revenue to increase 6%. Wells Fargo had a decent third quarter. The bank beat estimates for earnings, but unlike JPMorgan, revenue was below expectations and NII decreased.

    [PRO] Earnings will show market direction
    After the deluge of data such as September’s jobs reports and consumer price index report, earnings will determine the path of markets for the near term. Big banks dominate third-quarter reports this week. It’s Bank of America and Goldman Sachs’ turn on Tuesday, while Morgan Stanley announces its earnings on Wednesday.

    The bottom line

    It seems like September’s hotter-than-expected inflation reading was indeed a blip.

    With a snap of its fingers, the producer price index assuaged worries over inflation remaining stubborn. The index, which measures wholesale prices – and thus generally prefigures changes in the CPI – was unchanged in September from August, defying expectations from a Dow Jones survey of a 0.1% increase.

    In fact, last week’s inflation figures looked so promising that Goldman Sachs think the Federal Reserve has just about brought inflation down to its 2% target without crashing the economy, as CNBC’s Jeff Cox reports.

    While consumer sentiment dipped slightly in October, according to the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers, “long run business conditions lifted to its highest reading in six months,” wrote Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director.

    JPMorgan Chase’s third-quarter earnings may be the first taste of that. The biggest bank in America beat estimates on both revenue and earnings. As banks generally reflect the health of the broader economy, it’s a signal things aren’t all bad despite dipping consumer confidence.

    Admittedly, earnings reflect what has already happened. Investors care more about what’s going to happen. But consumers are “fine and on strong footing,” as JPMorgan’s CFO Jeremy Barnum told reporters.

    Markets cheered the string of positive news.

    On Friday, the S&P 500 added 0.61%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.97% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.33%.

    That capped off a winning week for Wall Street – their fifth in a row. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed 1.1%, while the Dow did a bit better with its 1.2% increase for the week.

    “What we’re seeing … is a broadening of the market,” said Craig Sterling, head of U.S. equity research at Amundi US.

    It’s a reminder that subduing inflation is just a stop toward investors’ real endgame of a healthy stock market.

    – CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin and Brian Evans contributed to this story.   

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  • CNBC Daily Open: With a stagnant PPI, the Fed’s nearly at the finish line

    CNBC Daily Open: With a stagnant PPI, the Fed’s nearly at the finish line

    Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) annual meeting in Nashville, Tennessee, US, on Monday, Sept. 30, 2024. 

    Seth Herald | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    Winning week for markets
    All
    major U.S. indexes rose Friday on the back of encouraging inflation data and positive earnings from big banks. That gave them a winning week. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index climbed 0.55% to end the week higher. Separately, in August, the U.K. economy expanded 0.2% on a monthly basis after stagnating in June and July, according to flash data from U.K. officials.

    Tesla’s Cybercab and Robovan
    Tesla shares slumped 8.8% after the company’s “We, Robot” event disappointed investors. At the Thursday night event, CEO Elon Musk unveiled the Cybercab, a two-seater with no steering wheels or pedals, and the Robovan, an autonomous vehicle that has a big capacity. But Musk offered little other details, causing analysts to cast doubt on the company.

    More assurances from China
    In a press briefing held Saturday, Chinese Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an told reporters the space for Beijing to increase its budget deficit is “rather large,” but the government is still discussing stimulus plans, according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese. Lan also announced measures to support employment and the real estate industry.

    Banks’ earnings in good shape
    JPMorgan Chase, the biggest bank in the U.S., reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat estimates. Net interest income grew 3% from a year ago and helped revenue to increase 6%. Wells Fargo had a decent third quarter. The bank beat estimates for earnings, but unlike JPMorgan, revenue was below expectations and NII decreased.

    [PRO] Earnings will show market direction
    After the deluge of data such as September’s jobs reports and consumer price index report, earnings will determine the path of markets for the near term. Big banks dominate third-quarter reports this week. It’s Bank of America and Goldman Sachs’ turn on Tuesday, while Morgan Stanley announces its earnings on Wednesday.

    The bottom line

    It seems like September’s hotter-than-expected inflation reading was indeed a blip.

    With a snap of its fingers, the producer price index assuaged worries over inflation remaining stubborn. The index, which measures wholesale prices – and thus generally prefigures changes in the CPI – was unchanged in September from August, defying expectations from a Dow Jones survey of a 0.1% increase.

    In fact, last week’s inflation figures looked so promising that Goldman Sachs think the Federal Reserve has just about brought inflation down to its 2% target without crashing the economy, as CNBC’s Jeff Cox reports.

    While consumer sentiment dipped slightly in October, according to the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers, “long run business conditions lifted to its highest reading in six months,” wrote Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director.

    JPMorgan Chase’s third-quarter earnings may be the first taste of that. The biggest bank in America beat estimates on both revenue and earnings. As banks generally reflect the health of the broader economy, it’s a signal things aren’t all bad despite dipping consumer confidence.

    Admittedly, earnings reflect what has already happened. Investors care more about what’s going to happen. But consumers are “fine and on strong footing,” as JPMorgan’s CFO Jeremy Barnum told reporters.

    Markets cheered the string of positive news.

    On Friday, the S&P 500 added 0.61%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.97% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.33%.

    That capped off a winning week for Wall Street – their fifth in a row. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed 1.1%, while the Dow did a bit better with its 1.2% increase for the week.

    “What we’re seeing … is a broadening of the market,” said Craig Sterling, head of U.S. equity research at Amundi US.

    It’s a reminder that subduing inflation is just a stop toward investors’ real endgame of a healthy stock market.

    – CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin and Brian Evans contributed to this story.   

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  • Earnings will drive the stock market in the week ahead. That’s a good thing

    Earnings will drive the stock market in the week ahead. That’s a good thing

    A view of the New York Stock Exchange building in the Financial District in New York City on Aug. 5, 2024.

    Charly Triballeau | Afp | Getty Images

    The good times are still rolling on Wall Street. An intensifying earnings season will put that momentum to the test.

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  • Dow sets a record as Wall Street drifts to the finish of another winning week

    Dow sets a record as Wall Street drifts to the finish of another winning week

    NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks closed another record-setting week with a muted performance Friday, as hope built on Wall Street that the U.S. economy can manage the rare feat of suppressing high inflation without causing a recession.

    The S&P 500 edged down by 0.1% from its all-time high set the day before, its 42nd of the year so far. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 137 points, or 0.3%, to set its own record, while the Nasdaq composite slipped 0.4%.

    Treasury yields eased in the bond market after a report showed inflation slowed in August by a bit more than economists expected. It echoed similar numbers from earlier in the month about inflation, but Friday’s report has resonance because it’s the measure that officials at the Federal Reserve prefer to use.

    For more than a year, the Fed had kept its main interest rate at a two-decade high in hopes of slowing the economy enough to drive inflation toward its 2% target. Now that inflation has eased substantially from its peak two summers ago, the Fed has begun cutting rates to ease conditions for the slowing job market and prevent a recession.

    Of course, the risk of a downturn still looms. U.S. employers have slowed their hiring, and the inflation report on Friday also showed growth in U.S. consumer spending in August fell shy of economists’ expectations. That’s important because consumer spending is the main engine of the economy.

    Part of the shortfall may have been because incomes for Americans grew less in August than economists expected. As the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Americans will get lower interest payments on their savings accounts and other similar holdings.

    The boost that lower interest rates can give to borrowers, meanwhile, can take longer to come to fruition, “so consumption spending will likely get squeezed,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.

    More encouraging data arrived later in the morning, when a report said sentiment among U.S. consumers is stronger than economists expected.

    On Wall Street, Costco Wholesale fell 1.8% after delivering weaker revenue in the latest quarter than analysts expected. That was even though its profit topped expectations.

    Another company that depends on people spending money, ski-resort operator Vail Resorts, sank 3.9% after reporting a larger loss for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Scant snowfalls at its Australian resorts hurt its results, and it gave a forecast for profit in its upcoming fiscal year that fell short of forecasts.

    On the winning side of Wall Street, Bristol-Myers Squibb rose 1.6% after receiving U.S. federal approval for its new approach to treat schizophrenia in adults.

    Trump Media & Technology Group climbed 5.5% following the first disclosure of a major investor selling its shares now that a restriction for insiders has lifted.

    A Florida firm owned by former contestants on “The Apprentice” dumped nearly all of its 5.5% ownership stake in TMTG, which owns former president Donald Trump’s Truth Social platform, according to a filing made with U.S. regulators on Thursday..

    Trump has said he does not plan to sell any of his shares, and he owns more than half of the company, but the stock has been shaky amid speculation about whether he may.

    All told, the S&P 500 slipped 7.20 points to 5,738.17, but it still closed out a third straight winning week and its sixth in the last seven. The Dow rose 137.89 to 42,313.00, and the Nasdaq composite lost 70.70 to 18,119.59.

    Markets overseas made bigger moves, as stocks in Shanghai rallied 2.9% to close their best week since 2008. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 3.6% to cap its best week since 1998.

    They soared following a barrage of announcements through the week from China’s central bank and government in hopes of propping up the world’s second-largest economy. Investors aren’t convinced all the stimulus will ultimately succeed, but they say they’re impressed by the size of it all following earlier piecemeal efforts.

    In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury eased to 3.75% from 3.80% late Thursday.

    The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more closely with expectations for what the Fed will do with short-term rates, fell to 3.56% from 3.63%.

    Traders are betting on a 55% probability the Fed will cut the federal funds rate by another half of a percentage point at its next meeting in November, according to data from CME Group. It usually moves rates by just a quarter of a percentage point.

    Associated Press

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Fedspeak reassures markets

    CNBC Daily Open: Fedspeak reassures markets

    Neel Kashkari, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, speaks at the Milken Conference 2024 Global Conference Sessions at The Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 7, 2024. 

    David Swanson | Reuters

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    Markets regain momentum
    U.S. markets
    rose Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average notching fresh closing highs. Asia-Pacific stocks mostly climbed Tuesday, with the Chinese and Hong Kong markets popping over 3% on Beijing’s announcement of policy easing measures.

    PBOC policy easing
    The People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng on Tuesday announced a cut to banks’ reserve requirement ratio. That means banks won’t need as much cash on hand, which injects liquidity into the economy. The yields on Chinese bonds, in turn, dropped to record lows after the PBOC’s announcement.

    New property stimulus in China
    At the same press conference, the PBOC governor also said Beijing will reduce interest rates on existing individual mortgages by an average of half a percentage point, and lower the down-payment ratio for second home purchases to 15% from 25%. Hong Kong-listed shares of property companies surged in response to the stimulus.

    Revised offer for Boeing workers
    Amid a strike by Boeing workers, the company revised its contract offer, raising wages by 30% over four years, up from 25% it proposed earlier. Boeing reinstated annual bonuses and doubled a contract ratification bonus to $6,000 from $3,000. The labor union said Monday it is reviewing the offer.

    [PRO] Tech for Big Tech
    The rising tide of artificial intelligence is lifting related stocks. Specialized chips, data centers and electricity are needed to power the AI boom. Companies in those sectors have seen their stocks rise. The next to benefit from AI, according to Japanese bank Nomura, is the industry specializing in cooling of data centers.

    The bottom line

    We were treated to abundant Fedspeak on Monday.

    In an interview with CNBC, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said, “We still have a strong, healthy labor market. But I want to keep it a strong, healthy labor market.” Kashkari’s emphasis on the strength of the jobs market suggests the Fed wants to reinforce the narrative that the economy’s not staring at a recession.

    Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic was more circumspect. “Progress on inflation and the cooling of the labor market have emerged much more quickly than I imagined at the beginning of the summer,” he said at a separate event.

    That Bostic was possibly surprised by the increase in the unemployment rate is an indication some Fed officials are indeed worried the jobs market isn’t as strong as it should be.

    Last, in remarks to the National Association of State Treasurers, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that “it’s appropriate to increase our focus on the other side of the Fed’s mandate — to think about risks to employment, too, not just inflation.”  

    Goolsbee sees “many more rate cuts over the next year” because the state of employment is a “through line on economic conditions.” That suggests economic conditions need the support of additional cuts.

    Still, yesterday’s Fedspeak was sufficiently vague and didn’t seem to cause alarm.

    Major U.S. indexes ticked up. The S&P rose 0.28%, the Dow advanced 0.15% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.14%. While those increases appear small, they pushed the S&P and Dow to new closing highs.

    The narrative the central bank has been on top of its game to ensure a soft landing, then, is very much intact.

    – CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Brian Evans and Alex Harring contributed to this story. 

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  • CNBC Daily Open: One day makes all the difference

    CNBC Daily Open: One day makes all the difference

    A worker sweeps the floor at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York, US, on Monday, Sept. 16, 2024. 

    Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    New highs 
    U.S.
    stocks rallied on Thursday, as all major indexes closed in the green. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average marked new record closes, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had its fourth-best day this year, fueled by a rally in tech. The regional Europe Stoxx 600 index rose 1.38%, with all major bourses and most sectors ending the day higher.  

    Tech surges 
    After taking a day to digest the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cut, investors flocked to tech stocks. On Thursday, Tesla soared 7.4%, Nvidia popped 4% and Apple jumped 3.7%. Lifted by those stocks, the Nasdaq rose 2.5%, its fourth-biggest single-day gain in 2024. Its sharpest rally this year was a 3% increase on Feb. 22. 

    “Recalibration” 
    Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s use of the word “recalibration” seemed to reassure investors that the central bank’s 50 basis point cut wasn’t that worrying. It signaled the Fed wasn’t responding to a slowing economy, but shifting focus to ensuring employment doesn’t dip further, wrote CNBC’s Jeff Cox.   

    Staying its hand 
    The Bank of England decided to hold interest rates steady at 5%. The decision was nearly unanimous: Only one out of nine members in the Monetary Policy Committee voted to reduce rates by a quarter percentage point. Market watchers expect the BOE to cut rates at its next meeting in November. 

    [PRO] Another big cut? 
    Some experts thought the Fed would lower rates by a quarter percentage point at its September meeting. That call was wrong. A JPMorgan Chase economist nailed the half-point call – and he sees another big rate cut in November

    The bottom line

    “Twenty-four little hours / Brought the sun and the flowers / Where there used to be rain,” sings American 1950s star Dinah Washington. 

    Washington might as well be singing about the market’s behavior. Immediately after the Fed announced the jumbo rate slash on Wednesday, stocks hit fresh highs before falling into the red by the end of that day.    

    But twenty-four hours later, after investors assessed that the half-point cut probably didn’t portend the start of a recession, major indexes rallied to close at record highs.  

    The S&P climbed 1.7% to end at 5,713.64, the first time the broad-based index has broken through the 5,700 ceiling. Likewise, the Dow closed at 42,025.19, its first above the 42,000 level, after the index rose 1.26%.  

    The Nasdaq, buoyed by a rally in names like Tesla, Nvidia and Apple, was the biggest winner among major indexes, surging 2.51%, for its fourth-best day this year.  

    And while history shows that September hasn’t been nice to stocks, it also tells us that when the S&P notches record highs during the month, the fourth quarter’s likely to remain strong. Since 1950, this pattern has played out in 20 out of 22 occasions, noted Oppenheimer. 

    Indeed, BMO is so bullish about the market that the bank raised its year-end target for the S&P to 6,100 – an 8.6% climb from Wednesday’s close – the highest projection on Wall Street

    “Much like our last target increase in May, we continue to be surprised by the strength of market gains and decided yet again that something more than an incremental adjustment was warranted,” chief investment strategist Brian Belski wrote to clients in a Thursday note. 

    At the end of Washington’s song, she croons, “What a difference a day makes / And the difference is you.” Powell can perhaps feel like Washington’s serenading him.  

    – CNBC’s Alex Harring, Fred Imbert, Hakyung Kim and Lisa Kailai Han contributed to this story. 

    Correction: An earlier version of this report did not state the time frame for the Nasdaq’s best performance. It has been added to this report.

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Rate cuts might not benefit tech the most

    CNBC Daily Open: Rate cuts might not benefit tech the most

    The sun rises behind the skyline of lower Manhattan and One World Trade Center as people walk along the Hudson River on September 14, 2024, in Jersey City, New Jersey. 

    Gary Hershorn | Corbis News | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    Record close for Dow
    The
    S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Monday, with the Dow notching a record close. But the Nasdaq Composite fell. Asia-Pacific stocks were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.03% as the Japanese yen strengthened to 140.54 against the U.S. dollar. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 1.15% as Midea Group shares jumped over 9% in their Hong Kong debut.

    Next move for the BOJ
    The Bank of Japan won’t be raising interest rates at its September meeting, according to a CNBC survey of 32 analysts. However, the outlook for its October and December meetings is less certain. Almost 20% think an October hike is likely, while 25% said the bank’s next hike will be in December.

    India’s slowing deposit growth
    Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das told CNBC in an exclusive interview that slowing growth in deposits is not a cause for concern currently, and said banks are “coming out with new products for deposit mobilization.”

    Intel forges new path for foundry
    Intel shares popped around 8% in extended trading on news the chipmaker plans to structure its foundry business as an independent unit with its own board and ability to raise outside funding. It might even spin off the business as a public company, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. Separately, the Biden administration on Monday awarded Intel up to $3 billion under the CHIPS Act.

    [PRO] “Golden age of fixed income”
    The U.S. Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates this week. Benchmark rates affect borrowing costs. This means bond yields will go down as the Fed lowers rates. Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s global chief investment officer of fixed income, thinks now’s the time for investors to take advantage of this “golden age of fixed income.”

    The bottom line

    Technology stocks benefit the most from low interest rates, conventional market wisdom says.

    That’s because tech companies tend to promise future profit in exchange for present money. When rates are low, that proposition appears attractive because returns are low elsewhere. But when rates are high, those promises don’t seem as attractive as less risky returns from assets such as Treasurys.

    The past two years have demolished this narrative. Tech has soared even as interest rates have been at 23-year highs, thanks to enthusiasm over artificial intelligence’s promise of new and explosive revenue streams.

    Nvidia, the lynchpin of AI, has soared nearly 136% just this year. Meta, which has its own AI model named Llama, is up about 51%.

    With the market pricing in a 67% chance — up from 30% last week — that the U.S. Federal Reserve will make a larger-than-usual cut of 50 basis points, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, it stands to reason tech will pop further.

    The sector, however, has been rocky in recent weeks. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF, for instance, fell 1.31% Monday, while Nvidia slipped 1.95%.

    The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.52%, while the S&P 500 inched up 0.13% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.55% to close at a new record.

    This implies investors have been moving out of tech to other sectors that might experience tailwinds amid lower rates. Case in point: the financial and energy sectors rose more than 1% on Monday, performing better than the broader market.

    Goldman Sachs noted hedge funds’ weekly purchases last week of financial stocks were the highest since June 2023.

    “Other areas of the market are starting to perk up, and a lot of that has to do with the future rate cuts that are coming into play,” said Christopher Barto, senior investment analyst at Fort Pitt Capital.

    That doesn’t mean tech’s out of favor. It’s likely to continue driving the market. But other sectors might show up for the ride.

    – CNBC’s Hakyung Kim, Pia Singh and Yun Li contributed to this story.

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