ReportWire

Tag: Diplomacy

  • Israel has only weeks to defeat Hamas as global opinion sours, former PM Ehud Barak says

    Israel has only weeks to defeat Hamas as global opinion sours, former PM Ehud Barak says

    [ad_1]

    Press play to listen to this article

    Voiced by artificial intelligence.

    TEL AVIV — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be digging in for a “long and difficult war” but former leader Ehud Barak fears Israel has only weeks left to eliminate Hamas, as public opinion — most significantly in the U.S. — rapidly swings against its attacks on Gaza.

    In an exclusive interview with POLITICO, the former prime minister and chief of the Israel Defense Forces also suggested a multinational Arab force could have to take control of Gaza after the military campaign, to help usher in a return of Mahmoud Abbas’ Palestinian Authority to take over from Hamas. Even with that change of the political order in Gaza, however, Barak stressed the return to diplomacy aimed at the creation of a Palestinian state was a very remote prospect.

    Barak, who led Israel between 1999 and 2001, observed the rhetoric of U.S. officials had shifted in recent days with a mounting chorus of calls for a humanitarian pause in the fighting. The sympathy generated toward Israel in the immediate wake of October 7, when Hamas launched the deadliest terrorist attack on Israel in the Jewish state’s 75-year history, was now diminishing, he worried.

    “You can see the window is closing. It’s clear we are heading towards friction with the Americans about the offensive. America cannot dictate to Israel what to do. But we cannot ignore them,” he said, in reference to Washington’s role as the main guarantor of Israel’s security. “We will have to come to terms with the American demands within the next two or three weeks, probably less.”

    As he was speaking, Israeli military officials told reporters the ground campaign was reaching a new dangerous phase with troops penetrating deep inside Gaza City, further than in previous operations in 2009 and 2014.

    Barak spoke with POLITICO in his book-lined office in a high-rise apartment building in downtown Tel Aviv.

    On the walls are photographs recording different stages of his storied career as a special forces soldier and statesman. One was snapped in May 1972 when he led an elite commando unit, which included Netanyahu, to rescue passengers from Sabena Flight 571, which was hijacked by Black September gunmen.

    Under the photograph, there’s a piano. A trained classical pianist, Barak says he has recently been playing Chopin Ballade No. 1. A performance of that piece is central to the plot of the 2002 film The Pianist, which moves a German Nazi officer to hide Władysław Szpilman.

    Barak added it would take months or even a year to extirpate the Islamist militant group Hamas — the main war aim set by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his war cabinet – but noted Western support was weakening because of the civilian death toll in Gaza and fears of Israel’s campaign sparking a much broader and even more catastrophic war in the region.

    Western nations are also anxious about their nationals among the 242 hostages Hamas is holding captive in Gaza, he continued.

    “Listen to the public tone — and behind doors it is a little bit more explicit. We are losing public opinion in Europe and in a week or two we’ll start to lose governments in Europe. And after another week the friction with the Americans will emerge to the surface,” Barak said.

    Handing over Gaza for a period to a multinational Arab force to police has been mooted before | Ahmad Hasaballah/Getty Images

    Last week, President Joe Biden raised the need for a “humanitarian pause” in the campaign.

    And this week on his fourth trip to Israel, and his third to the region since October 7, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken pressed the case with Netanyahu and the Israeli war cabinet telling them they should now prioritize the protection of civilians in Gaza and minimize civilian casualties.

    Blinken’s efforts so far have been spurned by Netanyahu but Barak didn’t think the Israeli war cabinet would be able to fend off the Biden administration and Europeans for much longer.

    Political and military veteran

    Barak has plenty of experience of dealing with Israel’s allies and adversaries alike.

    As prime minister he negotiated with Palestine Liberation Organization leader Yasser Arafat at Camp David, in a 2000 summit hosted by President Bill Clinton, where they came close to striking a deal. A former defense minister and chief of staff, Barak was an elite commando and one of the key planners of Operation Thunderbolt, the rescue from Entebbe, Uganda, of the passengers and crew of an Air France jet hijacked by terrorists.

    Barak said Israel rightly set the bar high in its Gaza war aim. “The shock of the attack was huge. This was an unprecedented event in our history, and it was immediately clear that there had to be a tough response. Not in order to take revenge, but to make sure that it cannot happen ever again.”

    And even if the military campaign falls short of its maximum goal of the full eradication of Hamas, severe damage will have been inflicted on the Iran-backed Palestinian group, he explained. It will then be important to constrain Hamas from pulling off a resurgence, he continued.

    Barak poses with members of the LGBTQ+ community in Tel Aviv in 2019 | Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images

    To change the political landscape, he believed a multinational Arab force could take over Gaza after the Israeli military campaign.

    “It is far from being inconceivable that backed by the Arab League and United Nations Security Council, a multinational Arab force could be mustered, with some symbolic units from non-Arab countries included. They could stay there for three to six months to help the Palestinian Authority to take over properly,” he said.

    Handing over Gaza for a period to a multinational Arab force to police has been mooted before.

    Back in 2008-2009, when Israel and Hamas fought a three week-war, Barak, then Israeli defense minister, discussed with the Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak the possibility of Egypt and other Arab nations stepping in to administer the Gaza Strip. “I remember his gesture,” says Barak. “He displayed his hands and said, ‘I will never ever put my hands back in the Gaza.’”

    Abbas, the Palestinian Authority president and head of the Palestine Liberation Organization, was equally dismissive.

    Abbas told Barak he could never return to Gaza supported by Israeli bayonets. “I didn’t like the answer. But you can understand his logic. Fifteen years ago, it was impossible because there was no one who would do it but a lot has changed since then,” Barak said.

    Displaced Palestinians wait at a food distribution at a U.N.-run center | Mohammed Abed/AFP via Getty Images

    Hamas battled the PLO-affiliated Fatah party for control of Gaza in 2007 in a clash that effectively split Palestinian political structures in two, with Hamas controling Gaza and Fatah predominating in the West Bank.

    Barak noted Israel, Egypt and Jordan had deepened their anti-terrorism cooperation and Israel had signed “normalization” accords with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, a process that he thought Arab states would not want to row back from.

    “Arab leaders also need to be able to tell their own peoples that something is changing, and a new chapter is opening, one where there is a sincere effort on all sides to calm down conflict. But they need to hear that Israel is capable of thinking in terms of changing the direction it has been on in recent years,” he adds.

    That doesn’t mean Israel should or can rush into revived negotiations over a two-state solution, he cautioned. Getting back to the era of when he was negotiating with Arafat might not be possible, for a very long time.

    “History does not repeat itself. So I do not think that something exactly like that can be repeated. But as Mark Twain used to say, history can rhyme.”

    He added: “It won’t happen quickly, and it will take time. Trust on all sides has gone – the distrust has only deepened.”

    [ad_2]

    Jamie Dettmer

    Source link

  • Macron Travels to Central Asia Seeking Friendship and Uranium

    Macron Travels to Central Asia Seeking Friendship and Uranium

    [ad_1]

    After finding itself suddenly unwelcome in its traditional sphere of influence, France is casting further afield.

    That’s why President Emmanuel Macron will travel to energy-rich Central Asia this week to visit Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, two suppliers of the uranium that powers the country’s nuclear reactors.

    The trip aims to boost France’s energy security, according to two people familiar with the French President’s thinking, who declined to be named when discussing matters of diplomacy. These efforts are in keeping with a wider European effort to diversify away from the Russian fossil fuels on which the bloc was formerly so reliant.

    But there is a second motive, the people said, and it involves tempting the former Soviet republics to look beyond their own dependence on Russia. French officials suggest the war in Ukraine has unsettled long-established relationships in the region, and that creates an opportunity.

    Read More: Russia’s War in Ukraine Spells Disaster for Neighboring Central Asia

    Central Asia’s vast reserves of oil, gas and minerals put it at the center of a contest for influence in the region that has habitually been Russia’s stomping ground. 

    China is extending its reach through President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road infrastructure project, the U.S. is seeking to bolster its political presence, while the European Union is striving to bind the region into a trade and energy corridor that would run through the Caucasus and on to Europe, bypassing Russia.

    France already boasts some large investments in the region; for instance French nuclear company Orano SA — formerly known as Areva — exploits uranium deposits in Kazakhstan via a joint venture with state-owned Kazatomprom. Deepening Orano’s presence will be on the menu of discussions, according to one delegation insider, who declined to be named discussing details of the trip. 

    Yet France’s pursuit of uranium is freighted with a greater urgency in the wake of a coup this July in Niger, which last year was second only to Kazakhstan as the EU’s biggest source of the raw material. Orano had to stop processing uranium ore at one of its facilities in the Saharan republic because international sanctions against the military junta were hampering logistics, it said last month.

    “Kazakhstan is key to France’s energy security,” said Michael Levystone, a Paris-based researcher at the French Institute of International Relations. “Macron’s visit will act as a reminder that Paris is ready to step up cooperation.”

    In addition to being the biggest supplier of uranium to France, last year Kazakhstan was also its second-biggest source of crude oil, down from first place in 2021, according to figures from the French economy ministry.

    Sparked by the invasion of Ukraine and powered by deeper concerns about the advance of China, Kazakhstan is one of a few countries where earlier this year G7 nations jointly resolved to deepen their partnerships, according to a diplomat familiar with the Group-of-Seven leaders’ internal deliberations.

    That means that in courting the land-locked republics wedged between China and Russia, Macron finds himself part of a broader trend. 

    Last week the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan met with the 27 EU Member States’ foreign ministers for the first time, according to an EU statement about that meeting, while in September President Joe Biden met their leaders on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. That same month, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz hosted them in Berlin.

    In France’s case, the overtures take place as it contends with increasingly limited room for maneuver in its usual sphere of influence. Since 2020, coups in nine sub-Saharan countries have variously spooked or sent home French diplomats, and in some cases the threat to French interests has been powered by Russia, in the shape of the mercenary Wagner Group.

    Read More: Despite Rift With Putin, the Wagner Group’s Global Reach is Growing

    Macron’s search for allies in Russia’s own backyard is helped by the Central Asian countries’ ambivalence toward the war in Ukraine. As they adhere faithfully to the west’s sanctions on Russia, at least on paper, his Nov. 1 to Nov. 2 trip arrives just as these nations’ commercial relationships are themselves in flux.

    The French President will travel with a delegation of 15 business leaders from the energy, agrifood and mining sectors, according to an Elysee official, including utility Electricite de France SA and engineering company Assystem SA, which provides expertise to build nuclear reactors.

    They will have noticed Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s plans for a referendum on a nuclear power plant that would reduce the country’s reliance on fossil fuels. 

    Kazakhstan also has plans to start extracting rare-earth metals next year, at a time when Macron has called for France to be less dependent on Chinese raw materials crucial to Europe’s electric-car industry. 

    Even so, earlier this year the French President made a state visit to China, underscoring a strategy of distancing himself from the US’s more hawkish stance on Beijing, and in line with his attempts to expand France’s influence in Asia.

    Macron recently became the first French President to visit Mongolia, later signing a deal to source more uranium, while least year he was the first French leader to attend an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit with the countries of the Pacific Rim.

    [ad_2]

    Ania Nussbaum and Samy Adghirni / Bloomberg

    Source link

  • King Charles III seeks to look ahead in a visit to Kenya. But he’ll have history to contend with

    King Charles III seeks to look ahead in a visit to Kenya. But he’ll have history to contend with

    [ad_1]

    LONDON — LONDON (AP) — King Charles III wants to look to the future when his state visit to Kenya starts on Tuesday. But first he will have to confront the past.

    As Charles prepares for the four-day trip to Kenya, he is facing calls to address the legacy of eight decades of British colonial rule, as well as complaints that foreigners still own large swaths of rich farmland, and that the U.K. has failed to accept responsibility for the crimes of British soldiers stationed in Kenya.

    The trip will also be closely watched around the world, because it’s the king’s first state visit to an African nation and his first to a Commonwealth member since he ascended the throne last year. It comes at a time when the U.K. and the royal family is under pressure to reexamine the history of colonialism and apologize for its role in the trans-Atlantic slave trade.

    Behind the history and symbolism, Britain is keen to buttress its modern relationship with Kenya, which includes cooperation on counterterrorism and efforts to boost trade that totals more than 1.1 billion pounds ($1.3 billion) a year. Charles will underscore his commitment to environmental protection with visits to a national park to see vital conservation work undertaken by the Kenyan Wildlife Service.

    The king has already shown a willingness to address difficult issues, opening the royal archives to researchers studying the monarchy’s links to the slave trade. Before assuming the throne, he acknowledged the “appalling atrocity of slavery” during a speech on the Caribbean island of Barbados.

    “History never disappears,” said Nick Westcott, a professor of diplomacy at SOAS University of London and a former director of the Royal African Society. “I think that’s how he sees it genuinely himself — that we shouldn’t paper over the past, pretending what didn’t happen, that you have to face up to it. But then the objective is to look at the future.”

    Charles, the U.K.’s head of state, travels abroad at the request of the U.K. government and only when he’s been invited by the host country. The hope is that the glamour and goodwill generated by a visit from one of the most well-known men on Earth will strengthen the ties between Britain and Kenya.

    Kenyan President William Ruto invited Charles and Queen Camilla for the visit beginning in Nairobi on Tuesday.

    In the age of colonialism, Kenya was one of the jewels of the British Empire. It was the starting point for an ambitious railway project linking the Indian Ocean coast with the African interior, and the destination for thousands of white settlers who built coffee and tea plantations.

    But the colonial administration also replaced Black leaders, pushed local people off their land and imposed crippling taxes.

    That set the stage for the Mau Mau Rebellion of the 1950s, which hastened the end of colonial rule, but continues to cloud relations between the U.K. and Kenya. Colonial authorities resorted to executions and detention without trial as they tried to put down the insurrection, and thousands of Kenyans said they were beaten and sexually assaulted by agents of the administration.

    In 2013, the U.K. government condemned the “torture and ill-treatment” that took place during the rebellion as it announced a 19.9 million-pound settlement with more than 5,000 victims

    Kenya became independent in 1963, but the country has maintained close, if sometimes troubled, ties with the U.K.

    “His Majesty will take time during the visit to deepen his understanding of the wrongs suffered in this period by the people of Kenya,’’ Chris Fitzgerald, deputy private secretary to the king, told reporters before the trip.

    Charles and Queen Camilla plan to tour a new museum dedicated to Kenyan history, visit the site where Kenya declared its independence and lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Warrior in Uhuru Gardens.

    For the U.K. and allies like the United States, Kenya is a strategically important hub of relative stability and democracy in East Africa, as they combat the threat from Islamic extremists based primarily in neighboring Somalia.

    Two years ago, the U.K. and Kenya signed an economic pact designed to boost trade and investment between the two countries and renewed a defense agreement that underpins cooperation on counterterrorism efforts and allows British soldiers to train in Kenya.

    But some among a new generation of Kenyans question what links, if any, their country should have with its former colonial power, which left behind not only memories of brutality, but also colonial-era laws, such as the ban of gay sex, that continue to influence attitudes.

    The Rift Valley of western Kenya remains a flashpoint for concerns about land ownership, because most of the fertile region’s tea and pineapple farms are owned by foreigners.

    Veteran politician and human rights activist Koigi Wamwere says the continued ownership of huge parcels by British citizens while local people have no land is an “injustice that should be corrected.”

    Kenya and the U.K. “cannot move forward until they apologize, offer reparations and return the land they stole,’’ he said.

    Charles’ visit is also likely to reignite tensions over defense cooperation.

    Dozens of people are gearing up to protest what they describe as crimes committed by British forces stationed in Kenya. In the highlands of Laikipia and Nanyuki, east of Nairobi, many in the local community are demanding compensation for a fire allegedly started by British soldiers in 2021.

    Local attorney Kelvin Kubai told The Associated Press that more than 100 of the 7,000 victims who were affected have died without compensation.

    “The people feel that the buck stops with the king, ” Kubai said. “They also feel that as long as he owes an apology (for) the past colonial deeds, he also owes a responsibility to the present atrocities being committed by his forces here in Nanyuki and Laikipia.’’

    The unsolved murder of Agnes Wanjiru, who disappeared near a British base in Kenya 11 years ago, is another issue that is likely to surface during the visit.

    While a former British soldier is the prime suspect in the case, authorities have yet to charge anyone.

    Wanjiru’s family told the AP that they had hoped the U.K. government would contact them about the case, but so far they have heard nothing.

    “Numerous dignitaries from the U.K. have visited Kenya, promising to meet our family, but failing to do so,” said Wanjiru’s sister Rose. “They only make those commitments to the media and never honor them.”

    With a growing number of people of African origin now living in the U.K. making a connection with the people of Kenya is important to Charles, Westcott said.

    “They are an integral part of what Britain is today — and the king is acknowledging that in making this one of his priority visits,’’ he said. “It is not just Kenya he’s visiting. It is Africa.”

    ___

    Evelyne Musambi reported from Nairobi, Kenya.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • King Charles III seeks to look ahead in a visit to Kenya. But he’ll have history to contend with

    King Charles III seeks to look ahead in a visit to Kenya. But he’ll have history to contend with

    [ad_1]

    LONDON — LONDON (AP) — King Charles III wants to look to the future when his state visit to Kenya starts on Tuesday. But first he will have to confront the past.

    As Charles prepares for the four-day trip to Kenya, he is facing calls to address the legacy of eight decades of British colonial rule, as well as complaints that foreigners still own large swaths of rich farmland, and that the U.K. has failed to accept responsibility for the crimes of British soldiers stationed in Kenya.

    The trip will also be closely watched around the world, because it’s the king’s first state visit to an African nation and his first to a Commonwealth member since he ascended the throne last year. It comes at a time when the U.K. and the royal family is under pressure to reexamine the history of colonialism and apologize for its role in the trans-Atlantic slave trade.

    Behind the history and symbolism, Britain is keen to buttress its modern relationship with Kenya, which includes cooperation on counterterrorism and efforts to boost trade that totals more than 1.1 billion pounds ($1.3 billion) a year. Charles will underscore his commitment to environmental protection with visits to a national park to see vital conservation work undertaken by the Kenyan Wildlife Service.

    The king has already shown a willingness to address difficult issues, opening the royal archives to researchers studying the monarchy’s links to the slave trade. Before assuming the throne, he acknowledged the “appalling atrocity of slavery” during a speech on the Caribbean island of Barbados.

    “History never disappears,” said Nick Westcott, a professor of diplomacy at SOAS University of London and a former director of the Royal African Society. “I think that’s how he sees it genuinely himself — that we shouldn’t paper over the past, pretending what didn’t happen, that you have to face up to it. But then the objective is to look at the future.”

    Charles, the U.K.’s head of state, travels abroad at the request of the U.K. government and only when he’s been invited by the host country. The hope is that the glamour and goodwill generated by a visit from one of the most well-known men on Earth will strengthen the ties between Britain and Kenya.

    Kenyan President William Ruto invited Charles and Queen Camilla for the visit beginning in Nairobi on Tuesday.

    In the age of colonialism, Kenya was one of the jewels of the British Empire. It was the starting point for an ambitious railway project linking the Indian Ocean coast with the African interior, and the destination for thousands of white settlers who built coffee and tea plantations.

    But the colonial administration also replaced Black leaders, pushed local people off their land and imposed crippling taxes.

    That set the stage for the Mau Mau Rebellion of the 1950s, which hastened the end of colonial rule, but continues to cloud relations between the U.K. and Kenya. Colonial authorities resorted to executions and detention without trial as they tried to put down the insurrection, and thousands of Kenyans said they were beaten and sexually assaulted by agents of the administration.

    In 2013, the U.K. government condemned the “torture and ill-treatment” that took place during the rebellion as it announced a 19.9 million-pound settlement with more than 5,000 victims

    Kenya became independent in 1963, but the country has maintained close, if sometimes troubled, ties with the U.K.

    “His Majesty will take time during the visit to deepen his understanding of the wrongs suffered in this period by the people of Kenya,’’ Chris Fitzgerald, deputy private secretary to the king, told reporters before the trip.

    Charles and Queen Camilla plan to tour a new museum dedicated to Kenyan history, visit the site where Kenya declared its independence and lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Warrior in Uhuru Gardens.

    For the U.K. and allies like the United States, Kenya is a strategically important hub of relative stability and democracy in East Africa, as they combat the threat from Islamic extremists based primarily in neighboring Somalia.

    Two years ago, the U.K. and Kenya signed an economic pact designed to boost trade and investment between the two countries and renewed a defense agreement that underpins cooperation on counterterrorism efforts and allows British soldiers to train in Kenya.

    But some among a new generation of Kenyans question what links, if any, their country should have with its former colonial power, which left behind not only memories of brutality, but also colonial-era laws, such as the ban of gay sex, that continue to influence attitudes.

    The Rift Valley of western Kenya remains a flashpoint for concerns about land ownership, because most of the fertile region’s tea and pineapple farms are owned by foreigners.

    Veteran politician and human rights activist Koigi Wamwere says the continued ownership of huge parcels by British citizens while local people have no land is an “injustice that should be corrected.”

    Kenya and the U.K. “cannot move forward until they apologize, offer reparations and return the land they stole,’’ he said.

    Charles’ visit is also likely to reignite tensions over defense cooperation.

    Dozens of people are gearing up to protest what they describe as crimes committed by British forces stationed in Kenya. In the highlands of Laikipia and Nanyuki, east of Nairobi, many in the local community are demanding compensation for a fire allegedly started by British soldiers in 2021.

    Local attorney Kelvin Kubai told The Associated Press that more than 100 of the 7,000 victims who were affected have died without compensation.

    “The people feel that the buck stops with the king, ” Kubai said. “They also feel that as long as he owes an apology (for) the past colonial deeds, he also owes a responsibility to the present atrocities being committed by his forces here in Nanyuki and Laikipia.’’

    The unsolved murder of Agnes Wanjiru, who disappeared near a British base in Kenya 11 years ago, is another issue that is likely to surface during the visit.

    While a former British soldier is the prime suspect in the case, authorities have yet to charge anyone.

    Wanjiru’s family told the AP that they had hoped the U.K. government would contact them about the case, but so far they have heard nothing.

    “Numerous dignitaries from the U.K. have visited Kenya, promising to meet our family, but failing to do so,” said Wanjiru’s sister Rose. “They only make those commitments to the media and never honor them.”

    With a growing number of people of African origin now living in the U.K. making a connection with the people of Kenya is important to Charles, Westcott said.

    “They are an integral part of what Britain is today — and the king is acknowledging that in making this one of his priority visits,’’ he said. “It is not just Kenya he’s visiting. It is Africa.”

    ___

    Evelyne Musambi reported from Nairobi, Kenya.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • The EU seeks to revive peace talks since no military answer seen in the Israel-Palestinian conflict

    The EU seeks to revive peace talks since no military answer seen in the Israel-Palestinian conflict

    [ad_1]

    BRUSSELS — As distant as the prospect of peace might seem, European Union leaders believe it is time to start laying the foundations for a future relationship between Israel and the Palestinians where the militant group Hamas doesn’t control Gaza.

    Mindful that resentment and even conflict in the wider Middle East and Gulf regions have been fueled by decades of tensions between Israel and the Palestinians, the 27-nation bloc has begun exploring ways to realize a long-held EU ideal — two states living peacefully side by side.

    As the Palestinian death toll climbed beyond 7,000 and Israel carried out airstrikes on Friday in response to the Hamas incursion into southern Israel, EU leaders meeting in Brussels for a second day encouraged broader diplomatic and security initiatives to stop the conflict from spreading, and ultimately from ever starting again. A peace conference and political settlement would be part of that.

    “The history of this conflict didn’t begin with the attacks on Oct. 7 and won’t end with a land war in Gaza,” Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said. “It’s very, very clear: 75 years of conflict between Israel and the Arabs, wars, terrorist attacks, huge instability. This won’t end because of a military solution. It can’t.”

    Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said that “a pure security policy and a pure security solution is part of the reason (this conflict) has happened. So at some point a political dialogue needs to start.”

    Apart from its aid and trade leverage, the EU bloc has no obvious security role to play in the conflict. It backs Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas, which killed more than 1,400 people in Israel. Hamas is holding at least 229 captives inside Gaza, including dozens of EU citizens.

    But as civilian casualties in Gaza mount, it also wants Israel to respect international law. Hamas is on the EU’s list of terror organizations and receives no funding from the bloc. Indeed, a review of its substantial assistance to the Palestinians is underway to ensure that none leaks to the group.

    The EU member nations have long been divided in their positions on the region — Austria, Germany and Hungary staunch backers of Israel, Spain and Ireland more vocal in their support for the Palestinians — but the bloc does have credibility as a European project founded on peace.

    “All 27 countries agreed to this,” Varadkar told reporters. “That there should be a two-state solution, and that we need to have a peace conference, and that the European Union needs to be part of that.”

    The EU has for years tried to promote the idea of an Israeli and a Palestinian state with borders set mostly as they were in 1967 — before Israel captured and occupied the West Bank and Gaza — with some land swaps agreed between them. Both would have Jerusalem as their shared capital.

    In a statement agreed overnight, the leaders said they are “ready to contribute to reviving a political process on the basis of the two-state solution.” They also said the EU “welcomes diplomatic peace and security initiatives and supports the holding of an international peace conference soon.”

    Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said that the peace conference must be held within six months.

    It will mean working more closely with Israel’s neighbors, Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, as well as with Gulf countries like Qatar, which has the kind of relations with Hamas that could help get hostages released. Iran’s demands would have to be managed. Saudi Arabia and Turkey could play key roles.

    Top EU officials concede that their international peace efforts so far haven’t been effective. This is the fifth war between Israel and Hamas, and the number of deaths in the past three weeks exceeds the combined tally of those killed in the previous four, which is estimated to be around 4,000.

    “If we don’t stop this cycle of violence, it will happen again in the future. The level of trust between Israeli and Palestinian, which was already extremely low in recent years, is now at the level of the Dead Sea,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell wrote in a blog this week.

    “Peace will not come by itself; it has to be built,” added Borrell, who leads international diplomatic efforts on behalf of the EU. “The two-state solution remains the only viable one we know. And if we only have one solution, we must put all our political energy into achieving it.”

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Beijing’s Top Diplomat Visits Washington as U.S. and China Seek to Ease Strained Ties

    Beijing’s Top Diplomat Visits Washington as U.S. and China Seek to Ease Strained Ties

    [ad_1]

    WASHINGTON — In the midst of two active and potentially world-changing conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, the U.S. is hoping to find at least a small measure of common ground with China as China’s top diplomat visits Washington this week.

    Over three days of meetings that begin Thursday, top Biden administration officials, including possibly the president himself, will press Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the importance of China stepping up its role on the world stage if it wants to be considered a responsible major international player.

    Read More: How China Could Play a Key Role in the Israel-Hamas War—and Why It’s Not

    Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, are both expected to urge China to play a constructive role in both the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars. Those meetings could set the stage for a summit between President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping next month on the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum leaders gathering in San Francisco.

    The U.S. has been disappointed with China over its support for Russia in the war against Ukraine and its relative silence on the Middle East. In addition, the world’s two largest economies are at odds on issues such as human rights, climate change, Taiwan, the South China Sea, and North Korea.

    Still, both sides have expressed a willingness to talk with each other since Blinken canceled a planned visit to China in February after the shootdown of a Chinese spy balloon over the U.S., which marked a low point in recent relations.

    Read More: The Chinese Spy Balloon Has Inflated America’s Paranoia

    In the months that followed that crisis, however, Blinken rescheduled his trip and went to China in June. He was followed in quick succession by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, climate envoy John Kerry, and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.

    In addition, Sullivan met with Wang in Malta in mid-September ahead of Blinken’s discussions with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng later that month on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York. And Blinken spoke just last week with Wang about the Israel-Hamas crisis.

    The goal, according to U.S. officials, is to set the stage for another Biden-Xi summit at which the two leaders could explore cooperation or at least easing outright hostility on the most pressing matters of the day.

    “Wang Yi’s visit will serve as one of the final touchpoints in laying the groundwork” for the Biden-Xi meeting, said Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institute, a Washington-based think tank. “Wang’s meetings in Washington will set the contours for the topics the two leaders will discuss when they meet in November.”

    “It opens the possibility of the world’s two largest powers pursuing coordinated efforts to limit escalation or expansion of violence in Ukraine and the Middle East,” he said.

    Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, another Washington think tank, said Wang’s trip signals that the Xi-Biden summit is almost certain.

    “Wang is here to pave the ground for Xi’s San Francisco trip. That’s the core focus of the trip. It means issues will be negotiated, solutions will be discussed and details will be deliberated and inked,” Sun said. “The APEC summit is 20 days away, so time is of essence. His trip means that Xi is coming. Xi’s coming means meeting with Biden. The Xi-Biden summit means efforts to stabilize bilateral ties.”

    Read More: The World’s Future Is in the Hands of Chinese President Xi Jinping

    Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said Wang’s trip could yield results such as additional direct flights between the two countries, visas for more journalists, and even agreements on climate change and resumption of high-level military dialogue.

    But while it is important for Wang and the Americans to discuss points of contention in the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere, Kennedy said it is unlikely the two sides will reach much agreement.

    The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Wang will “have in-depth exchanges of views” with U.S. officials on a range of issues and “state China’s principled position and legitimate concerns” on relations between the two countries.

    The Chinese president last came to the U.S. in 2017, when former President Donald Trump hosted him at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Biden, who took office in 2021, has yet to host Xi on U.S. soil. The two men last met in Bali, Indonesia, in November 2022, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 meeting of leading rich and developing nations.

    Wang’s trip is one of a string of meetings and activities to warm up Xi’s visit to the U.S.

    California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is visiting China this week, had a surprise meeting with Xi on Wednesday in Beijing. The Chinese president told the governor that “the achievements of China-U.S. relations have not come easily and should be cherished all the more,” according to the official news agency Xinhua.

    Earlier this month, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer led a delegation of six senators to China, in the first visit by U.S. lawmakers since 2019. Schumer was also received by Xi, who said the Thucydides Trap is “not inevitable.” The Thucydides Trap is a political term for the tendency of major clashes when an emerging power challenges an existing power.

    Read More: U.S. General’s Prediction of War With China ‘in 2025’ Risks Turning Worst Fears Into Reality

    The U.S.-China relationship began to sour in 2018 when the Trump administration slapped hefty tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods. It deteriorated further over a range of issues, including rights abuses, the South China Sea, Taiwan, technology, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

    [ad_2]

    Didi Tang and Matthew Lee / AP

    Source link

  • Lebanese hold their breath as fears grow Hezbollah will pull them into war

    Lebanese hold their breath as fears grow Hezbollah will pull them into war

    [ad_1]

    BEIRUT — Once again, the Lebanese are glued to their TV sets and are compulsively checking their cell phones, following every twist and turn of skirmishes on the border, trying to weigh up whether another war is imminent.

    In desperation, they are asking themselves how a nation so often shattered by conflict — and pummeled by an economic crisis — is again at risk of tipping back into the abyss.

    “People are exhausted — they can’t take much more,” said Ramad Boukallil, a Lebanese businessman, who runs a company training managers. “Lebanon is reeling — we have had four harsh years with the economic crisis, people are skipping meals and can hardly get by. We had the port explosion, the pandemic, a financial crash. Please God we’re not hit with another war,” he added, in a conversation at Beirut airport.

    The chief fear for many Lebanese is that they could soon be the second front of Israel’s war against its Islamist militant enemies, after Hamas’ brutal onslaught against Israel a week ago that killed more than 1,300 people. While most eyes are focused on an expected retaliatory ground assault against Hamas in Gaza, Israeli forces have also declared a 4-kilometer-wide closed military zone on Lebanon’s southern border, where they have exchanged fire with Hezbollah, a Shiite political party and militant group based in Lebanon.

    One person close to Hezbollah said the Golan Heights — Syrian land occupied by Israel to the southeast of Lebanon — was shaping up into an especially dangerous flashpoint, saying Hezbollah has moved elite units there in the past few days.

    Finger on the trigger

    For now, this border fighting appears contained, but Iran’s flurry of regional diplomacy is heightening the anxiety that Tehran could be about to commit its proxies in Hezbollah headlong into the war. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned on Saturday that if Israel doesn’t halt its military campaign in Gaza, then Hezbollah, a key player in the Tehran-orchestrated “axis of resistance,” is “prepared” and has its “finger is on the trigger.”

    “There’s still an opportunity to work on an initiative [to end the war] but it might be too late tomorrow,” Amir-Abdollahian told reporters after meeting Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Qatar where they “agreed to continue co-operation” to achieve the group’s goals, according to a Hamas statement.

    Mark Regev, an adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told Britain’s Spectator TV his country was ready for Hezbollah, which he labeled a twin of Hamas. “Hezbollah could try to escalate the situation, so my message is clear: if we were caught by surprise by Hamas on Saturday morning, we are not going to be caught by surprise from the north. We are ready, we are prepared. We don’t want a war in the north but if they force one upon us, as I was saying, we are ready and we will win decisively in the north too.”

    To try to forestall any such thing happening, the United States has dispatched two aircraft carrier strike groups to the region and President Joe Biden publicly warned outside actors — taken to mean Iran and Hezbollah — not to get involved. “Don’t,” he said.

    “That was music to my ears,” said Ruth Boulos, a mother of two, as she sipped coffee at a restaurant in Raouché, one of the most expensive neighborhoods in Beirut, dotted with modern skyscrapers. “Let’s hope Hezbollah listens,” she added.

    At nearby tables, mostly well-heeled Lebanese Christian families could be heard debating whether the country will once again be mired in war and whether they should get out now, joining other affluent Lebanese who have been leaving because of the economic crisis that’s left an estimated 85 percent of the population below the poverty line.

    That may start to become more challenging. Airlines are getting nervous. Germany’s Lufthansa has temporarily suspended all flights to the country.

    Lebanon’s caretaker government has no power to influence the course of events, Prime Minister Najib Mikati has admitted. He told a domestic TV channel Friday that Hezbollah had given him no assurances about whether they will enter the Gaza war or not. “It’s on Israel to stop provoking Hezbollah,” Mikati said in the interview. “I did not receive any guarantees from anyone about [how things could develop] because circumstances are changing,” he said.

    Thanks to Lebanon’s hopelessly fractured politics, the country has had no fully functioning government since October 2022. The cabinet only met Thursday amid rising concerns that the border skirmishes might lead to the war’s spillover. It strongly condemned what it called “the criminal acts committed by the Zionist enemy in Gaza.” Ministers later told media the country would be broken by war. Lebanon “could fall apart completely,” Amin Salam, the economy minister, told The National.

    Scarred by war

    The rocket and artillery skirmishes along the Lebanese border since Hamas launched its terror attack on Israel have been of limited scope but have killed several people, including Reuters videographer Issam Abdallah. They are not, however, entirely out of the ordinary. An officer with the United Nations peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, who asked not to be identified as he’s not authorized to speak with the media, said he thought the skirmishes were mounted to keep Israel guessing.

    The Lebanese are no strangers to toppling over the precipice. There are still grim pockmarked reminders dotted around Beirut of the 1975-1990 Lebanese civil war, a brutal sectarian conflict that pitched Shiite, Sunni, Druze and Christians against each other in a prolonged and tortuous quarrel that drew in outside powers, killed an estimated 120,000 people, and triggered an exodus of a million.

    In 2006 the country was plunged into war once again when Hezbollah seized the opportunity to strike Israel a fortnight into another war in Gaza. Hezbollah, the Party of God, declared “divine victory” after a month of brutal combat, which concluded when the U.N. brokered a ceasefire. Hezbollah’s capabilities took everyone by surprise, with Israel’s tanks being overwhelmed by “swarm” attacks.  

    Some see that brief war as the first serious round of an Iran-Israel proxy war, something more than just a continuation of the conflict between Arabs and Israelis.

    No one doubts, though, that another full-scale confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah would be of much greater magnitude.

    Armed with an estimated 150,000 precision-guided missiles thanks to Iran, which has been maintaining a steady flow of game-changing sophisticated weaponry for years via Syria, Hezbollah has the capability of striking anywhere in Israel and has a force that could easily be compared to a disciplined, well-trained mid-sized European army — but with a difference; Hezbollah has thousands of war-hardened fighters, thanks to its intervention in the Syrian Civil War.

    Speculation is rife that air strikes on Damascus and Aleppo airports in Syria on Thursday were a step by Israel to impede Hezbollah’s arms supply line from Iran. Others see it as a warning to Syria not to get involved — Syrian support for Hezbollah could be especially important in the Golan Heights.

    Hezbollah itself has been rehearsing for what its commanders often dub “the last war with Israel.” Hezbollah’s intervention on the side of President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian Civil War was an “opportune training” opportunity, a senior Hezbollah commander told this correspondent in 2017. “What we are doing in Syria in some ways is a dress rehearsal for Israel,” he explained.

    Fighting in the vanguard alongside Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah fighters honed their skills in urban warfare. When Hezbollah first intervened in Syria, Israeli defense analysts viewed the foray as a blessing — better to have their Lebanese arch-enemy ensnared there.

    But concern rapidly mounted in Israel that Hezbollah was gaining valuable battlefield experience in Syria, especially in managing large-scale, offensive operations, something the Shiite militia had little skill at previously. Other enhanced Hezbollah capabilities from Syria include using artillery cover more effectively, using drones skillfully in reconnaissance and surveillance operations, and improving logistical operations to support big integrated offensives.

    A question of timing

    But will Hezbollah decide to strike now?

    “I don’t think Hezbollah will open a second front,” Paul Salem, president of the Middle East Institute, and a seasoned Lebanon hand, told POLITICO. But he had caveats to add. “That assessment depends on what the Israelis do in Gaza.”

    “If Israel moves in a big way in Gaza and begins to get close to either defeating or evicting Hamas, let’s say like the eviction of the PLO from Lebanon in 1982, then at that point Hezbollah and Iran would not want to lose Hamas as an asset in Gaza,” he said.

    “That’s a strategic imperative that might spur them to open a second front to make sure that Hamas isn’t defeated. Another factor will be the human toll in Gaza — if it is huge that might force Hezbollah’s hand because of an angry Arab public reaction,” Salem adds.

    Tobias Borck, a security research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said Hezbollah faces a dilemma.

    When it fought Israel in 2006 it became very popular across the Arab world, but that flipped when it intervened in Syria with “people asking — even Shiites in its strongholds in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley — what fighting in Syria had to do with resisting Israel, its supposed raison d’être, although it exists really to protect Iran from Israel,” he said.

    “Hezbollah has to regain legitimacy and that puts an awful lot of pressure. That’s the worrying factor for me. How can Hezbollah still maintain it is the key player in the ‘axis of resistance’ against Israel and not get involved?” he added.

    On Friday, Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem told a rally in the southern Beirut suburbs that the group would not be swayed by calls for it to stay on the sidelines of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, saying the party was “fully ready” to contribute to the fighting.

    “The behind-the-scenes calls with us by great powers, Arab countries, envoys of the United Nations, directly and indirectly telling us not to interfere will have no effect,” he told supporters waving Hezbollah and Hamas flags.

    The question remains what that contribution might be.

    [ad_2]

    Jamie Dettmer

    Source link

  • King Charles III will travel to Kenya later this month for a state visit full of symbolism

    King Charles III will travel to Kenya later this month for a state visit full of symbolism

    [ad_1]

    LONDON — LONDON (AP) — King Charles III will travel to Kenya later this month for a state visit, Buckingham Palace said Wednesday, in a trip that is full of symbolism.

    Charles’ mother, the late Queen Elizabeth II, learned that she had become U.K. monarch while visiting a game preserve in the East African nation in 1952.

    The state visit from Oct. 31-Nov. 3 will be Charles’ first to a Commonwealth nation since he succeeded his mother last year, underscoring the king’s commitment to an organization that has been central to Britain’s global power and prestige since World War II.

    Charles will be greeted by Kenyan President William Ruto when he arrives in the capital, Nairobi. The king plans to visit Nairobi National Park and meet with environmental activist Wanjira Mathai, the daughter of late Nobel laureate Wangari Maathai, as he underscores his commitment to environmental protection.

    Charles will also acknowledge the “painful aspects” of his nation’s shared history with Kenya, which celebrates the 60th anniversary of its independence from the U.K. this year. The two countries have enjoyed a close relationship since independence, despite the prolonged struggle against colonial rule, sometimes known as the Mau Mau Rebellion, in which thousands of Kenyans died.

    “His majesty will take time during the visit to deepen his understanding of the wrongs suffered in this period by the people of Kenya,” Chris Fitzgerald, deputy private secretary to the king, said during a briefing on the state visit.

    The rebellion began in the early 1950s, when groups of armed Kenyans attacked British officials and white farmers who occupied fertile lands. The Kenya Human Rights Commission estimates that 90,000 Kenyans were executed, tortured or maimed during the United Kingdom‘s counterinsurgency campaign.

    In 2013, the U.K. government expressed its regret over the “torture and other forms of ill-treatment” perpetrated by the colonial administration from 1952-1960, and paid out 19.9 million pounds for human rights abuses.

    The U.K. royal family has long ties to Africa. In 1947, the future queen pledged lifelong service to Britain and the Commonwealth during a speech from South Africa on her 21st birthday. Five years later, Elizabeth and her late husband Prince Philip were visiting Aberdare National Park in Kenya when they learned that her father had died and she had become queen.

    Charles himself visited Kenya in 1971, and he attended the Commonwealth heads of government meeting in Rwanda in 2022.

    The Commonwealth is a voluntary association of 56 independent countries, most of which have historical ties to the United Kingdom and its former empire. Charles became the symbolic head of the organization after the queen died last year, but the honor is not hereditary.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Europe’s power outage: How Israel-Hamas war exposed EU’s irrelevance

    Europe’s power outage: How Israel-Hamas war exposed EU’s irrelevance

    [ad_1]

    Press play to listen to this article

    Voiced by artificial intelligence.

    At least Europe no longer has to endure that hackneyed Henry Kissinger quip about whom to call if you want “to call Europe.”  

    No one’s calling anyway. 

    Of the myriad geostrategic illusions that have been destroyed in recent days, the most sobering realization for anyone residing on the Continent should be this: No one cares what Europe thinks. Across an array of global flashpoints, from Nagorno-Karabakh to Kosovo to Israel, Europe has been relegated to the role of a well-meaning NGO, whose humanitarian contributions are welcomed, but is otherwise ignored. 

    The 27-member bloc has always struggled to articulate a coherent foreign policy, given the diverse national interests at play. Even so, it still mattered, mainly due to the size of its market. The EU’s global influence is waning, however, amid the secular decline of its economy and its inability to project military might at a time of growing global instability. 

    Instead of the “geopolitical” powerhouse Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised when she took office in 2019, the EU has devolved into a pan-Europeanminnow, offering a degree of bemusement to the real players at the top table, while mostly just embarrassing itself amid its cacophony of contradictions. 

    If that sounds harsh, consider the past 72 hours: In the wake of Hamas’ massacre of hundreds of Israeli civilians over the weekend, European Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi announced on Monday that the bloc would “immediately” suspend €691 million in aid to the Palestinian Authority. A few hours later, Slovenian Commissioner Janez Lenarčič contradicted his Hungarian colleague, insisting the aid “will continue as long as needed.” 

    The Commission’s press operation followed up with a statement that the EU would conduct an “urgent review” of some aid programs to ensure that funds not be funneled into terrorism, implying such safeguards were not already in place. 

    As far as the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell was concerned, the outcome of any review of assistance for the Palestinians was a foregone conclusion: “We will have to support more, not less,” he said on Tuesday. 

    To sum up: Over the course of just 24 hours, the Commission went from announcing it would suspend all aid to the Palestinians to signaling it would increase the flow of funds. 

    The EU’s response to the events on the ground in Israel was no less confused. Even as Israel was still counting the bodies from the most horrific massacre in the Jewish state’s history, Borrell, a longtime critic of the country who has effectively been declared persona non grata there, resorted to bothsidesing. 

    Borrell, a Spanish socialist, condemned Hamas’ “barbaric and terrorist attack,” while also chiding Israel for its blockade of Gaza and highlighting the “suffering” of the Palestinians who voted Hamas into power. 

    The Spaniard’s approach stood in sharp contrast to that of von der Leyen, who unequivocally condemned the attacks (albeit in a series of tweets) and had the Israeli flag projected onto the façade of her office. 

    Borrell organized an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers in Oman to discuss the situation in Israel, but Israel’s foreign minister declined to participate, even remotely | AFP via Getty Images

    Those moves immediately drew protest from other corners of the EU, however, with Clare Daly, a firebrand leftist MEP from Ireland, questioning von der Leyen’s legitimacy and telling her to “shut up.”

    By mid-week, ascertaining Europe’s position on the crisis was like throwing darts — blindfolded. 

    Bloody hands

    Compare that with the messaging from Washington. 

    “In this moment, we must be crystal clear,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in a special White House address Tuesday. “We stand with Israel. We stand with Israel. And we will make sure Israel has what it needs to take care of its citizens, defend itself, and respond to this attack.”

    Biden noted that he’d called France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom to discuss the crisis. Notably not on the list: any of the EU’s “leaders.” 

    On Tuesday, Borrell organized an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers in Oman, where they were already gathering, to discuss the situation in Israel. Israel’s foreign minister, Eli Cohen, declined to participate, even remotely. 

    That’s not too surprising, considering Europe’s record on Iran, which has supported Hamas for decades and whose leadership celebrated the weekend attacks. Though Iran denies direct involvement, many analysts say Hamas’ carefully planned assault would not have been possible without training and logistical support from Tehran.

    “Hamas would not exist if not for Iran’s support,” U.S. Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat on the Senate foreign relations committee, said on Wednesday. “And so it is a bit of splitting hairs as to whether they were intimately involved in the planning of these attacks, or simply funded Hamas for decades to give them the ability to plan these attacks. There’s no doubt that Iran has blood on its hands.”

    Despite persistent signs of Tehran’s malevolent activities across the region, including the detention of a European diplomat vacationing in Iran, Borrell has repeatedly sought to engage with the country’s hard-line regime in the hope of reigniting the so-called nuclear deal with global powers that then-U.S. President Donald Trump exited in 2018. 

    Last year, Borrell even traveled to Iran in a bid to restart talks, despite the loud objections of Israel’s then-foreign minister, Yair Lapid. 

    If nothing else, Borrell is consistent.

    “Iran wants to wipe out Israel? Nothing new about that,” he told POLITICO in 2019 when he was still Spanish foreign minister. “You have to live with it.”

    European Council President Charles Michel mounted an ambitious diplomatic effort earlier this year amid a resurgence in tensions | Jorge Guererro/AFP via Getty Images

    Now Europe has to live with the consequences of that misguided policy and its loss of credibility in Israel, the region’s only democracy.  

    The Charles Michel Show 

    Another glaring example of Europe’s geopolitical impotence is Nagorno-Karabakh, the disputed, predominantly Armenian, region in Azerbaijan. 

    The long-simmering conflict there was all but forgotten by most of the world, but not by European Council President Charles Michel, who mounted an ambitious diplomatic effort earlier this year amid a resurgence in tensions.  

    In July, Michel hosted leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Brussels, the sixth such meeting. He described the discussions as “frank, honest and substantive.” He even invited the leaders to a special summit in October for a “pentalateral meeting” with Germany and France in Granada. 

    It wasn’t meant to be. By then, Azerbaijan had seized the region, sending more than 100,000 refugees fleeing to Armenia. Europe, in dire need of natural gas from Azerbaijan, was powerless to do anything but watch. 

    Earlier this month, Michel blamed Russia, traditionally Armenia’s protector in the region, for the fiasco. 

    “It is clear for everyone to see that Russia has betrayed the Armenian people,” Michel told Euronews. 

    A similar pattern has played out in Kosovo, where the Europeans have been trying for years to broker a lasting peace between its Albanian and Serbian populations. The main sticking point there is the status of the northern part of Kosovo, bordering Serbia, where Serbs comprise a majority of the roughly 40,000 residents. 

    Borrell even appointed a “Special Representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue and other Western Balkan Regional Issues.” 

    The incumbent in the post, Miroslav Lajčák, Slovakia’s former foreign minister, hasn’t had much luck. Though Lajčák was awarded the grandiose title more than three years ago, the parties are, if anything, further apart today than ever. 

    The EU has spent untold millions trying to stabilize the region, funding civil society organizations, schools and even a police force.  

    When tensions threatened to devolve into all-out combat following an incursion into northern Kosovo by Serbian militiamen last month, however, the EU was forced to resort to its tried-and-true crisis resolution mechanism: Uncle Sam.  

    ”We get criticized for too little leadership in Europe and then for too much,” U.S. diplomat Richard Holbrooke said in 1998, after Washington dragged its reluctant European allies into an effort to halt the “ethnic cleansing” campaign unleashed by Yugoslavian leader Slobodan Milošević in Kosovo. 

    ”The fact is the Europeans are not going to have a common security policy for the foreseeable future,” Holbrooke added. “We have done our best to keep them involved. But you can imagine how far I would have got with Mr. Milošević if I’d said, ‘Excuse me, Mr. President, I’ll be back in 24 hours after I’ve talked to the Europeans.”’ 

    Risky business 

    One needn’t look further than Ukraine for proof that his point is no less valid today. Though the EU has done what it can, providing tens of billions in financial, humanitarian and military aid, it’s not nearly enough to help Ukraine keep the Russians at bay. If it weren’t for American support, Russian troops would be stationed all along the EU’s eastern flank, from the Baltic to the Black Sea. 

    Ukraine’s plight highlights the divide between Europe’s geostrategic aspirations and reality. Even though Europe didn’t anticipate Russia’s full-scale invasion, it had been talking for years about the need to improve its defense capabilities. 

    “We must fight for our future ourselves, as Europeans, for our destiny,” then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel declared in 2017. 

    And then nothing happened. 

    The reality is that it will always be easier to lean on Washington than to achieve European consensus around foreign policy and military capabilities. 

    That’s why Europe’s discussions about security sound more like fantasy football than Risk. 

    After Biden decided to send a U.S. aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean in response to the Hamas attack this week, Thierry Breton, France’s EU commissioner, said Europe needed to think about building its own aircraft carrier. Even in Brussels, the comment generated little more than comic relief.  

    Despite all the rhetoric about the necessity for Europe to play a more global role, not even the leaders of the EU’s biggest members, France and Germany, seem to be serious about it.  

    As Biden hunkered down in the White House Situation Room to discuss the crisis in Israel, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz were busy conferring in Hamburg. 

    After agreeing to redouble their efforts to cut red tape in the EU, they took a harbor cruise with their partners. 

    The leaders celebrated their successful deliberations on a local wharf with beer and Fischbrötchen, a Hamburg fish sandwich. The sun even came out. 

    But most important: No one’s phone rang.   

    [ad_2]

    Matthew Karnitschnig

    Source link

  • EU, Russia and US held secret talks days before Nagorno-Karabakh blitz

    EU, Russia and US held secret talks days before Nagorno-Karabakh blitz

    [ad_1]

    Press play to listen to this article

    Voiced by artificial intelligence.

    Top officials from the United States and the EU met with their Russian counterparts for undisclosed emergency talks in Turkey designed to resolve the standoff over Nagorno-Karabakh, just days before Azerbaijan launched a military offensive last month to seize the breakaway territory from ethnic Armenian control.

    The off-diary meeting marks a rare — if ultimately unsuccessful — contact between Moscow and the West on a major security concern, after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 upended regular diplomacy.

    A senior diplomat with knowledge of the discussions told POLITICO the meeting took place on September 17 in Istanbul as part of efforts to pressure Azerbaijan to end its nine-month blockade of the enclave and allow in humanitarian aid convoys from Armenia. According to the envoy, the meeting focused on “how to get the bloody trucks moving” and ensure supplies of food and fuel could reach its estimated 100,000 residents.

    The U.S. was represented by Louis Bono, Washington’s senior adviser for Caucasus negotiations, while the EU dispatched Toivo Klaar, its representative for the region. Russia, meanwhile, sent Igor Khovaev, who serves as Putin’s special envoy on relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    Such high-level diplomatic interaction is rare. In March, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov came face to face on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in India — but Moscow insisted the exchange happened “on the move” and no negotiations were held.

    In a statement provided to POLITICO, an EU official said “we believe it is important to maintain channels of communications with relevant interlocutors to avoid misunderstandings.” The official also observed Klaar had sought to keep lines open on numerous fronts over the “past years,” including in talks with Khovaev and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin.

    A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department declined to comment on the meeting, saying only that “we do not comment on private diplomatic discussions.”

    However, a U.S. official familiar with the matter who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters explained the discussions came out of an understanding that the Kremlin still holds sway in the region. “We need to be able to work with the Russians on this because they do have influence over the parties, especially as we’re at a precarious moment right now,” the American official said.

    Azerbaijan launched a lightning offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19, sending tanks and troops into the region under the cover of heavy artillery bombardment. Karabakh Armenian leaders were forced to surrender following 24 hours of fierce fighting that killed hundreds on both sides. Since then, the Armenian government says more than 100,000 people have fled their homes and crossed the border, fearing for their lives.

    Azerbaijan insists it has the right to take action against “illegal armed formations” on its internationally recognized territory, and has pledged to “reintegrate” those who have stayed behind. European Council President Charles Michel described the military operation as “devastating,” while Blinken has joined calls for Azerbaijan “to refrain from further hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh and provide unhindered humanitarian access.”

    [ad_2]

    Nahal Toosi, Gabriel Gavin and Eric Bazail-Eimil

    Source link

  • India and US army chiefs call for free and stable Indo-Pacific as Chinese influence grows

    India and US army chiefs call for free and stable Indo-Pacific as Chinese influence grows

    [ad_1]

    India’s army chief says the country is committed to maintaining a free and stable Indo-Pacific, where the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations is respected

    ByThe Associated Press

    September 26, 2023, 4:19 AM

    Chief of staff of the U.S. Army Gen. Randy George speaks at the opening ceremony of 13th Indo-Pacific Armies Chiefs Conference and 47th Indo-Pacific Armies Management Seminar in New Delhi, India, Tuesday, Sept. 26, 2023. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

    The Associated Press

    NEW DELHI — India’s army chief on Tuesday said the country was committed to maintaining a free and stable Indo-Pacific, where the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations is respected, as global concern grows over Chinese influence in the region.

    General Manoj Pande made the comments at the Indo-Pacific Army Chiefs Conference, hosted by India and the U.S., which is focused on boosting military diplomacy and collaboration as well as promoting peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. Army chiefs and delegations from 30 countries are attending the two-day event, which concludes Wednesday.

    Pande said that while countries in the region are working toward a free Indo-Pacific, “we are witnessing manifestations of interstate contestations and competition” — a veiled reference to China, which has stepped up its activities in the region.

    Neither Pande nor the U.S. Army chief, Randy George, explicitly mentioned China in their remarks.

    When asked about Chinese expansion at a press briefing, George said the region was a critical priority for the U.S. “It’s why we are out here and why we exercise more than anywhere else in the Pacific, to build all of this. What this conference proves… is (our) unity and commitment,” the U.S. chief said.

    At the opening ceremony held after, Pande said India’s outlook was focused on the peaceful resolution of disputes, avoiding force and adhering to international law. He added that in addition to challenges in maritime security, the region also faced security and humanitarian concerns on land, including territorial disputes and over “artificially expanded islands to acquire real estate and establish military bases” — another veiled reference to China.

    China’s territorial claims in the East China and South China seas over islands have rattled Beijing’s smaller neighbors in Southeast Asia as well as Japan. Meanwhile the relationship between New Delhi and Beijing has deteriorated since 2020, when Indian and Chinese troops clashed along their undefined border in the Himalayan Ladakh region, leaving 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers dead.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Back in full force, UN General Assembly shows how the most important diplomatic work is face to face

    Back in full force, UN General Assembly shows how the most important diplomatic work is face to face

    [ad_1]

    UNITED NATIONS — There are two opposing theses about the U.N. General Assembly: It’s a place that shows the true power of words, where leaders inspire action with rousing speeches on the urgent issues of our times; or it’s a talking shop, where leaders perform for domestic audiences with political rhetoric on the cause of the day.

    These dueling viewpoints were tested when the coronavirus pandemic shut down much in-person diplomacy for several years. After three years of virtual, then hybrid General Debates, the scores of top leaders who attended the annual U.N. summit this week exhibited the return of in-person diplomacy, and provided ammunition to those who advocate for its importance.

    It wasn’t just drama, like whether Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy would be addressing the Security Council in the presence of Russia’s top diplomat (the two ultimately did not cross paths).

    Many of the formal speeches delivered before the green stone in the General Assembly could have been performed straight to camera, with few other people in the room (and in 2020, they were). More than the speeches, at the heart of the annual meetings is the face-to-face interaction between leaders. And as important to day-to-day relations between countries is the face-to-face interaction between lower-level staff, shown this year as diplomatic delegations and non-governmental organizations packed the U.N. headquarters and hotels and meeting spaces nearby.

    The diplomatic agreements worked out in informal interactions have been key to accomplishments that weren’t formally laid out in the U.N.’s founding document — activities like peacekeeping in recent years and decolonization decades ago, said Katie Laatikainen, a professor of political science and international relations at Adelphi University.

    Much of the world looks at the General Assembly like a world government body, she said, and ignores the less high-profile work that’s advanced in behind-the-scenes interactions.

    “People expect governance but that’s not really what the U.N. does,” she said. The General Assembly, she said, actually “overshadows what the U.N. does well.”

    Side meetings on themes running from conservation to Middle East peace were taking place throughout the week. In-person relations are as important, if not more so, for non-governmental organizations with stakes in the outcomes, attendees said.

    The La Jolla, California-based Waitt Institute works on ocean conservation and during the pandemic, “we were all on Zoom, of course … it actually served an enormously important function,” in communicating with the small island nations where Waitt does much of its work, said executive director Kathryn Mengerink.

    However, real life is not “how we engage when we’re in a box on a screen,” she said, from midtown Manhattan, where she was engaging in the sort of in-person communication that she called essential to her group’s work.

    Scott Hamilton, a former State Department official who has worked in Cuba, among other locations, described how the pandemic hurt diplomacy because “face-to-face, you can build trust and comfort between people.”

    Despite the more robust attendance, this year did see some notable absences: With the exception of U.S. President Joe Biden, the leaders of China, France, Russia and the United Kingdom — the four other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council — did not attend.

    United Nations officials say it’s a mistake to confuse in-person attendance, particularly by national leaders, as a referendum on the meeting’s importance.

    “We’re fully aware that there are competing demands on heads of states, domestic demands,” said Stéphane Dujarric, spokesperson for U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres. “So, we’re not taking it personally.”

    Even without a president or a prime minister in town, delegations still get work done — and the in-person contact helps set the agenda for the year ahead.

    “The really hard work is what happens the rest of the year,” Laatikainen said.

    Many at the General Assembly, and those observing it closely from afar, declined to discuss the substance of negotiations that may never ultimately come to fruition. But they said that the 2023 summit underscored how essential it was to meet in person again, providing an invaluable way to interact that was more confidential and efficient than virtual communications.

    “Technology provides a facility to carry those (interactions) without personal contact, but it’s inferior to personal contact,” said Jeff Rathke, president of the American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University and a retired State Department official who focused mainly on U.S. relations with Europe..

    But the General Assembly week “provides a critical mass that allows you to do all the things that you would prefer to do in person,” Rathke said.

    “You can exchange papers all day and have video calls,” Hamilton echoes, “but it’s all about doing what diplomats are supposed to do: It’s easy to understand people’s positions by exchanging papers but it’s more important to understand people’s interests.”

    ___

    Michael Weissenstein, an editor for The Associated Press in New York, is a veteran international correspondent who has been stationed in Cuba, Britain and Mexico.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • France is rolling out the red carpet for King Charles III’s three-day state visit

    France is rolling out the red carpet for King Charles III’s three-day state visit

    [ad_1]

    PARIS — PARIS (AP) — King Charles III of the United Kingdom starts a three-day state visit to France on Wednesday meant to highlight the friendship between the two nations with great pomp, after the trip was postponed in March amid widespread demonstrations against President Emmanuel Macron’s pension changes.

    Charles and Queen Camilla were greeted by Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne at Paris-Orly airport. They were to attend a ceremony at the Arc de Triomphe in the presence of Macron and his wife, Brigitte.

    The visit shows “the deep historical ties that unite our two countries. It is also an opportunity to showcase France’s cultural, artistic and gastronomic excellence,” the French presidency said.

    At the Arc de Triomphe, both national anthems will be played before a review of French troops and a wreath laying at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier to “mark the shared sacrifices of the past and an enduring legacy of cooperation,” according to Buckingham Palace.

    The jet fighters of the Patrouille de France and Britain’s Red Arrows, the acrobatic teams of the two air forces, will fly above the monument.

    The presidential and royal couples will then head by car to the presidential palace, parading on the Champs-Élysées avenue.

    Macron and Charles will hold a bilateral meeting, because the visit also “symbolizes the relationship of friendship and trust” since they ”have in the past worked closely together to protect biodiversity and combat global warming,” the French presidency stressed.

    They will also have talks on Russia’s war in Ukraine and the migration issue as Italy’s southern island of Lampedusa was in recent days overwhelmed by people setting off from Tunisia.

    While the U.K. royal family long ago ceded political power to elected leaders, members of the royal family remain Britain’s preeminent ambassadors as presidents and prime ministers jockey to bask in the glamor and pageantry that follows them wherever they go.

    The visit comes amid a recent warming in the Franco-British relationship after years marked by Brexit talks and related disputes.

    At a bilateral summit in March, Macron and U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak agreed to strengthen military ties and step up efforts to prevent migrants from crossing the English Channel.

    “We know that the British and French relationship has been difficult at times since 2016,” Ed Owens, a historian of the British monarchy, told The Associated Press.

    “This move on the part of the British state to send the king to France is about reassuring the people of France, but also the people of the U.K. that this is a relationship of significant important and that it is based on history, heritage and that there are many other things in our shared futures that connect us.”

    A state dinner on Wednesday in the Hall of Mirrors at the Palace of Versailles in the presence of more than 150 guests will be one of the highlights of the visit.

    On Thursday, Charles will address French lawmakers at the Senate, providing a new venue for the king to show off his language skills after he wowed his audience by switching seamlessly between German and English during a speech to Germany’s parliament in March.

    He will later rejoin Macron in front of Notre-Dame Cathedral to see the ongoing renovation work aimed at reopening the monument by the end of next year.

    U.K. Ambassador Menna Rawlings, speaking on French news broadcaster LCI, said that Charles was “very sad” after the monument’s spire and roof collapsed in a blaze in 2019. It reminded him of the 1992 fire at Windsor Castle, she added.

    “Of course it’s an incredible moment for him to have the opportunity, with the queen, to look at this (renovation) work and also meet the firemen who were involved,” she said.

    Charles and Macron will also attend a reception for British and French business leaders about financing climate-related and biodiversity projects.

    The king will end his trip on Friday with a stop in Bordeaux, home to a large British community. He will meet emergency workers and communities affected by the 2022 wildfires in the area and visit the Forêt Experimentale, or experimental forest, a project designed to monitor the impact of climate on urban woodlands.

    He will also tour a vineyard which has pioneered a sustainable approach to wine making.

    ___

    AP journalist Alexander Turnbull contributed to the story.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • France is rolling out the red carpet for King Charles III’s state visit

    France is rolling out the red carpet for King Charles III’s state visit

    [ad_1]

    PARIS — PARIS (AP) — King Charles III of the United Kingdom starts a three-day state visit to France on Wednesday meant to highlight with great pomp both nations’ friendship, after the trip was postponed in March amid widespread demonstrations against President Emmanuel Macron’s pension changes.

    Charles and Queen Camilla will be greeted by Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne at Paris-Orly airport, before heading to the city center for a ceremony at the Arc de Triomphe in the presence of Macron and his wife, Brigitte.

    The visit shows “the deep historical ties that unite our two countries. It is also an opportunity to showcase France’s cultural, artistic and gastronomic excellence,” the French presidency said.

    At the Arc de Triomphe, both nations’ hymns will be played before a review of French troops and a wreath laying at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier to “mark the shared sacrifices of the past and an enduring legacy of cooperation,” according to Buckingham Palace.

    The jet fighters of the Patrouille de France and Britain’s Red Arrows, the acrobatic teams of the countries’ air forces, will fly above the monument.

    The presidential and royal couples will then head by car to the presidential palace, parading on the Champs-Elysees avenue.

    Macron and Charles will hold a bilateral meeting, because the visit also “symbolizes the relationship of friendship and trust” between them since they both ”have in the past worked closely together to protect biodiversity and combat global warming,” the French presidency stressed.

    They will also have talks on Russia’s war in Ukraine and the migration issue as Italy’s southern island of Lampedusa was in recent days overwhelmed by people setting off from Tunisia.

    While the U.K. royal family long ago ceded political power to the country’s elected leaders, the monarchy remains Britain’s preeminent ambassadors as presidents and prime ministers jockey to bask in the glamor and pageantry that follows them wherever they go.

    The visit comes amid a recent warming in the French-British relationship after years marked by Brexit talks and related disputes.

    A March bilateral summit saw Macron and U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak agreeing on strengthening the military ties between their countries and stepping up efforts to prevent migrants from crossing the English Channel.

    “We know that the British and French relationship has been difficult at times since 2016,” Ed Owens, a British monarchy historian, told The Associated Press.

    “This move on the part of the British state to send the king to France is about reassuring the people of France, but also the people of the U.K. that this is a relationship of significant important and that it’s is based on history, heritage and that there are many other things in our shared futures that connect us.”

    A state dinner on Wednesday in the Hall of Mirrors of the Palace of Versailles in the presence of more than 150 guests will be one of the highlights of the visit.

    On Thursday, Charles will address French lawmakers at the Senate, providing a new venue for the king to show off his language skills after he wowed his audience by switching seamlessly between German and English during a speech to Germany’s parliament in March.

    He will later rejoin Macron in front of Notre-Dame Cathedral to see the ongoing renovation work aimed at reopening the monument by the end of next year.

    U.K. Ambassador Menna Rawlings, speaking on French news broadcaster LCI, said that Charles was “very sad” after the monument’s spire and roof collapsed in a blaze in 2019. It reminded him of the 1992 fire at Windsor Castle, she added.

    “Of course it’s an incredible moment for him to have the opportunity, with the queen, to look at this (renovation) work and also meet the firemen who were involved,” she said.

    Charles and Macron will also both attend a reception for British and French business leaders about financing climate-related and biodiversity projects.

    The king will end his trip on Friday with a stop in Bordeaux, home to a large British community. He will meet emergency workers and communities affected by the 2022 wildfires in the area and visit the Forêt Experimentale, or experimental forest, a project designed to monitor the impact of climate on urban woodlands.

    He will also tour a vineyard, which has pioneered a sustainable approach to wine making.

    ___

    AP journalist Alexander Turnbull contributed to the story.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Ukraine’s Zelenskyy is ‘a tough dude … a real Texan,’ says George W. Bush

    Ukraine’s Zelenskyy is ‘a tough dude … a real Texan,’ says George W. Bush

    [ad_1]

    KYIV — Former U.S. President George W. Bush reckons Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is so tough, he could be from Texas.

    Speaking via video chat during a conference in Kyiv on Friday, Bush said he sees Russia’s President Vladimir Putin as an empire builder, who may not stop at invading Ukraine. As for Zelenskyy, Bush joked: “Well he is a tough dude, he is a real Texan.”

    Although Bush was born in Connecticut, he was raised in Texas.

    Bush also said it would be harder and harder to persuade Americans that helping Ukraine is in their best interest. “First and foremost, Ukraine needs to tackle corruption. [A] recent reshuffle in the government showed me that Zelenskyy wants to do it,” Bush said.

    According to Bush, if Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, the U.S. will have to be involved in helping the likes of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia next.

    “The condition in Ukraine matters to the security of the U.S. The U.S. still has to support people like Zelenskyy when they show courage,” Bush said.

    [ad_2]

    Veronika Melkozerova

    Source link

  • Rishi Sunak hopes AI could be his legacy

    Rishi Sunak hopes AI could be his legacy

    [ad_1]

    Press play to listen to this article

    Voiced by artificial intelligence.

    NEW DELHI — With the clock likely ticking on his time in Downing Street, Rishi Sunak wants to secure a legacy on the world stage. The rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) may be just what he needs.
      
    The British prime minister faces a general election next year with his Conservative Party languishing 18 points behind the Labour opposition in the polls.

    But though Sunak told reporters travelling with him to the G20 leaders’ summit in India this weekend he was “entirely confident” he can still win re-election, U.K. government insiders say the PM already has one eye on his possible post-Downing Street legacy.
      
    Sunak takes pride in how he has helped repair the U.K.’s diplomatic standing after the rancour of Boris Johnson’s premiership and Liz Truss’ brief but disastrous stint in power. He sees the Windsor Framework — the agreement on post-Brexit trade checks in Ireland which markedly improved U.K. relations with the EU and the U.S. — as his signature achievement so far.
     
    Now the bigger prize in Sunak’s sights is the opportunity to position the U.K. as the leading authority on the governance of AI.
     
    “He sees it as one of his long-term legacy pieces,” one government adviser told POLITICO. “Shaping the world’s response to a paradigm-shifting technology would be a big deal — and it would be recognized as a big deal.” A second government official said Sunak “never misses a chance” to bring up AI.
     
    There are several existing international forums for governments to discuss AI regulation, including a G7 process and the EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council. Sunak’s challenge is to convince countries to take the U.K. seriously as a place to bring existing initiatives together and fold in unrepresented countries. And that will require some skillful diplomacy.

    From G20 to AI summit

    Sunak used conversations with other world leaders at the G20 to drum up interest in his landmark AI safety summit, which is taking place in the U.K. in November. The invitation list has yet to be made public, but is expected to include a range of countries including China.
     
    The prime minister told POLITICO en route to New Delhi: “So far, the response we’ve had has been really positive, people are really keen to participate and they recognize that the U.K. can play a leadership role in AI.”

    At a technology-focused session of the summit on Sunday the PM made comments on the need to develop AI responsibly. He praised India for “bringing AI to the top of the agenda at the G20” and said that there was “an opportunity for human progress that could surpass the industrial revolution in both speed and breadth.”

    He told leaders that first and foremost, the development of AI had to be done safely to manage risks. “This requires international cooperation,” he said. “The U.K. will be hosting the first ever international AI Safety Summit in November to help drive this forward.”

    Sunak added that the technology must also be developed securely “to protect the digital economy from malevolent actors and states” and fairly to “ensure inclusivity.”

    UK NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS

    For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

    “Getting this right is one of the greatest challenges and opportunities of our age,” Sunak said. “Let’s work together to make sure we all benefit.”

    Lacking luster

    But to make Sunak’s summit a success — and help secure his legacy — he will be reliant on the buy-in and active participation of fellow world leaders.

    Despite Sunak congratulating his host Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on a successful summit, the G20 was noteworthy for the absence of powerful figures including China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

    Sunak will be hoping to avoid similar ‘no shows’ at his AI summit. He has already been dealt a blow with news last month that U.S. President Joe Biden will not be attending.

    Key European leaders have also failed to confirm their attendance. In comments to POLITICO, one French official questioned the need for U.K. mediation, given alternative international avenues for discussing AI.

    Sunak’s experience at the G20 also demonstrates the difficulties of choreographing the good optics and effective diplomacy required for a successful summit.

    Predictions from U.K. government figures that Sunak would be mobbed by the adoring public did not materialize in a locked-down New Delhi where there were few people on the streets.
     
    There were also hiccups in Sunak’s summit agenda. He had been due to meet Modi at his house on Friday but that was replaced with a 20-minute meeting on the margins of the summit on Saturday. On Friday night Modi hosted President Biden for dinner instead. The two leaders held talks for about an hour.
     
    A planned business reception for Sunak on Friday at the British High Commission was also cancelled, because of transport issues. Sunak’s spokesperson said rescheduling was “part and parcel” of any summit.
     
    Things did improve over the weekend for the British PM. Modi and Sunak were filmed bear-hugging each other when they met. According to the U.K. government’s readout, Modi “noted the warm reception” Sunak had had in India, and the pair had agreed to continue moving towards a free trade agreement “at pace.”

    The Indian government said Modi has now formally invited Sunak for a bilateral visit, after POLITICO reported that U.K. officials were already drawing up plans for a possible return trip for Sunak later this year.

    Additional reporting by Vincent Manancourt.

    U.K. PRIME MINISTER APPROVAL RATING

    For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

    [ad_2]

    Eleni Courea

    Source link

  • North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un to visit Russia

    North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un to visit Russia

    [ad_1]

    Kim Jong Un will visit Russia “in the coming days,” the Kremlin announced Monday following speculation about an upcoming visit by the North Korean leader.

    Kim’s visit will take place “at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin,” the statement said.

    Last week, a U.S. official said the North Korean leader was expected to travel to Russia by the end of September, as an increasingly isolated Moscow is looking to buy artillery ammunition from North Korea for its invasion of Ukraine.

    In a recent letter to Kim, Putin called for the two countries to “strengthen … bilateral ties on all fronts.”

    [ad_2]

    Nicolas Camut

    Source link

  • In Southeast Asia, Harris says ‘we have to see the future’

    In Southeast Asia, Harris says ‘we have to see the future’

    [ad_1]

    JAKARTA, Indonesia — It took more than a day of flying, including two refueling stops, for Vice President Kamala Harris to reach this year’s summit of Southeast Asian countries. And once she arrived, she had less than eight minutes of public speaking time during two meetings.

    But in Jakarta’s cavernous convention center, adorned with billowing flowers and tropical plants for the occasion, Harris saw an opportunity to shape the future of United States foreign policy.

    In an interview with The Associated Press, the vice president said that Washington must “pay attention to 10, 20, 30 years down the line, and what we are developing now that will be to the benefit of our country then.”

    For her, that means working in Southeast Asia. Two-thirds of its population is under 35 years old. It’s the fourth-largest market for U.S. exports. One-third of global shipping travels through the South China Sea.

    “Think about it,” Harris said.

    This was her third trip to Southeast Asia since taking office — Harris heads back to Washington on Thursday — and she’s visited more countries here than any other region. It’s a sprawling constellation of nations, many of them eager for the personal touch of an American leader, and Harris has spent the past few years making the rounds.

    Although addressing migration from Central America was the original task in Harris’ foreign policy portfolio, her more recent travels have put her at the center of White House efforts to bolster ties in Asia as a counterbalance to China. It’s an international parallel to her more prominent role in domestic politics, where she’s been taking the lead on core Democratic issues such as abortion rights in the upcoming election.

    At home and abroad, progress can be slow or hard to measure. Harris’ approval ratings remain underwater, and her announcements in Southeast Asia tend to be counted in the millions of dollars rather than the billions. But she described her work in the region as something that will pay dividends over time as she gets to know its leaders.

    “The strongest relationships will be based on consistency, on communication, on trust, and the ability to work together and to grow the sense of connection,” she said.

    Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, said “many of our best successes in the region were made possible thanks to her diplomacy,” crediting Harris with helping to “move the ball forward on some of our top priorities.”

    “In our administration, she has been a strong advocate for stepping up our engagement in Southeast Asia — and she’s put in the air miles to prove that — in recognition that our work there is critical to our own security and economic growth,” Sullivan said.

    Some analysts believe China maintains an edge in the region, and the Australia-based Lowy Institute issued a report earlier this year concluding that Beijing was still gaining ground in recent years.

    However, Harris delivered a series of messages at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations that were intended to demonstrate American commitment despite Biden’s absence from the summit.

    “The American people have a profound stake in the future of the Indo-Pacific,” she said during one meeting. “We share a historic bond and common values with many of the people and nations here.”

    Harris also paid tribute to ASEAN as an organization, despite growing doubts about its effectiveness for regional diplomacy.

    “The fact that so many leaders are convening in this one place at the same time to address some of the biggest challenges facing our world is a sign of strength of both the commitment that each nation has to the coalition and the potential for collaboration,” she told the AP.

    Others are less hopeful.

    Dinna Prapto Raharja, a Jakarta-based analyst and professor on international relations, said ASEAN is being divided by competition between the U.S. and China, with some countries seeking to bolster their economies through closer relations with one or the other.

    “I don’t see solidarity at this moment, given the rivalry,” she said. “Everybody works their own way.”

    Harris’ travel to Southeast Asia began in her first year in office, when she visited Singapore and Vietnam, but the trip almost didn’t happen.

    Phil Gordon, a national security adviser to Harris, said there was talk of canceling because the administration was in the midst of a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

    “She personally insisted that we can do more than one thing at a time,” Gordon said. “She didn’t want to pull the plug on our commitment to Southeast Asia.”

    During the trip, she repeatedly criticized China for trying to control access to the South China Sea, at one point describing the behavior as “bullying.”

    “She didn’t knock it out of the park. It’s clear she was new to the issues. But she’s put in the work,” said Gregory B. Poling, who directs the Southeast Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

    He described Harris as “an effective avatar for the administration,” an important position when the president can only be in so many places at once.

    David Rothkopf, a foreign policy writer who worked on trade issues under former President Bill Clinton and has met with Harris, said there’s “always a period of adjustment” for an incoming administration.

    “She was new to the team,” he said. “And now she’s seen as part of the team.”

    It’s a role that she’s played frequently. In addition to skipping this year’s ASEAN summit, Biden didn’t attend the 2022 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in Thailand because it conflicted with his granddaughter’s wedding.

    Harris went in his place, and she also stopped in the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally where she’s fostered a close relationship with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

    During the visit, Harris became the highest-ranking U.S. official to go to Palawan, an island adjacent to the South China Sea. She toured a Philippine coast guard boat and spoke with members of a local fishing community.

    Republicans tried to turn it into an unflattering viral moment, clipping a video to portray her as awkwardly as possible as she greeted people with buckets of fish on their head.

    But to her office, it’s an example of how Harris is willing to show up places where others don’t. She frequently participates in events outside the hermetic bubble of international summits or government events.

    In Vietnam, she met with activists working on gay rights and climate change. In Thailand, she sat down with environmental advocates and clean energy entrepreneurs.

    “We have to see the future and think about where it’s going,” Harris told the AP, “and then measure ourselves against that in terms of what we do today.”

    ___

    Associated Press writer Edna Tarigan contributed to this report.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Niger junta’s 3-year transition plan is a ‘provocation,’ says West African regional bloc

    Niger junta’s 3-year transition plan is a ‘provocation,’ says West African regional bloc

    [ad_1]

    NIAMEY, Niger — The West African bloc ECOWAS rejected the proposal by Niger’s mutinous soldiers for a three-year transition to democratic rule, with a commissioner describing the slow timeline as a provocation.

    The door for diplomacy with Niger’s junta remained open but the bloc is not going to engage in drawn-out talks that lead nowhere, Abdel-Fatau Musah, the ECOWAS commissioner for peace and security, told The Associated Press in an interview Wednesday.

    “It is the belief among the ECOWAS heads of state and also the commission that the coup in Niger is one coup too many for the region and if we allow it then we are going to have a domino effect in the region and we are determined to stop it,” Musah said. While direct talks and backchannel negotiations are ongoing, he said the door to diplomacy wasn’t open indefinitely.

    “We are not going to engage in long, drawn out haggling with these military officers … We went down that route in Mali, in Burkina Faso and elsewhere, and we are getting nowhere,” Musah said.

    His comments came days after an ECOWAS delegation met the head of Niger’s military regime, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, for the first time since the mutinous soldiers ousted President Mohamed Bazoum in July.

    After last week’s meetng, Musah said the ball is now in the junta’s court.

    The junta has been keeping Bazoum and his wife and son under house arrest, and ECOWAS has demanded Bazoum be freed and constitutional order restored.

    ECOWAS has used Niger as a red line against further coups after several in the region, including two each in Mali and Burkina Faso since 2020.

    The bloc has imposed severe economic and travel sanctions and threatened the use of military force if Bazoum is not reinstated, but the junta has dug in. It has appointed a new government and said it will return the country to democratic rule within several years.

    Niger was seen as one of the last democratic countries in the Sahel region below the Sahara Desert that Western nations could partner with to beat back a growing jihadi insurgency linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. France, other European countries and the United States have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into providing equipment and training for Niger’s military and in the case of France have conducted joint operations.

    Since the coup those military operations have been suspended while both sides decide what to do. France and the U.S. have some 2,500 military personnel in the country and the U.S. operates two key drone and counter-terror bases.

    Musah said ECOWAS was not discussing military plans with any external partners and everything it was planning is based on the resources of member states. Earlier this month, ECOWAS said 11 of its 15 member states had agreed to intervene militarily if talks didn’t work.

    ECOWAS is banking on a combination of external pressure through sanctions and internal unrest within Niger’s security forces and the fact that Tchiani, the junta’s leader, met with ECOWAS face to face after multiple attempts, is a sign that the coup leaders are feeling the pressure, said Nate Allen, an associate professor at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

    “Nonetheless, it is clear that the two sides remain very far apart and the risk of conflict is high,” he said.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Biden will use Camp David backdrop hoping to broker a breakthrough in Japan-South Korea relations

    Biden will use Camp David backdrop hoping to broker a breakthrough in Japan-South Korea relations

    [ad_1]

    WASHINGTON — Camp David, the rustic presidential retreat in the mountains of Maryland, has been a backdrop for signal moments in U.S. foreign policy, perhaps none more notable than the peace accord President Jimmy Carter brokered between Egypt and Israel in 1978.

    On Friday, President Joe Biden will reach for his own place in Camp David lore, hoping that walks on leafy trails and necktie-free talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol will encourage the U.S. allies, who have been thawing their frosty relationship, to cooperate more given their shared concerns about aggression from China and North Korea.

    It will be the first time that Biden has hosted world leaders at the secluded retreat nestled in Maryland’s Catoctin Mountains, about an hour’s drive northwest of the White House.

    Run by the Navy, guarded by Marines and less imposing than the White House, Camp David was a deliberate choice by a president who puts a premium on face-to-face interactions with his foreign counterparts, Biden aides said.

    “One of the interesting things about Camp David is that it provides a less formal venue for presidents and their visitors to really get to know each other on a one-to-one basis,” said Sarah Fling, a historian at the White House Historical Association.

    British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev and Margaret Thatcher, a successor to Churchill, are just a few of the storied world figures who have spent time at Camp David at the invitation of U.S. presidents.

    President Barack Obama assembled leaders of the world’s largest economies for a Group of Eight summit in 2012, the biggest foreign contingent to ever gather there.

    President Donald Trump tweeted in September 2019 that he had canceled a secret meeting planned for Camp David with Taliban and Afghanistan leaders after an American soldier was among those killed in a bombing in Kabul.

    To produce the Camp David Accords, Carter sought an intimate location, a place away from the press where he thought Egypt’s Anwar Sadat and Israel’s Menachem Begin would be encouraged to talk to one another. Unlike at the White House, where journalists come and go, the news media are barred from Camp David, unless they are invited to cover an event, like Friday’s summit.

    Three days were set aside for the talks, but the summit lasted nearly two weeks. The Camp David Accords were signed at the White House in March 1979.

    Camp David was established in 1942 during Franklin Roosevelt’s presidency and has been used by every president since.

    Roosevelt had liked to relax on a presidential yacht, but the military and Secret Service started to worry about his safety on the open water during World War II. Roosevelt asked the National Park Service to identify sites within 100 miles of the White House that he could use for rest.

    He chose what is now known as Camp David. He gave it the original name of Shangri-La, from James Hilton’s novel “Lost Horizon.” President Dwight Eisenhower renamed it Camp David, after his grandson and father.

    Roosevelt also set the precedent for hosting foreign leaders at Camp David, inviting Churchill to the retreat twice. In 1943, they discussed the Normandy invasion; Roosevelt also took the prime minister along on a fishing trip.

    Eisenhower hosted Khrushchev for two days in 1959, the first time a Soviet leader had come to the United States. They watched American Western movies, among other activities.

    Bill Clinton hoped to replicate Carter’s feat by inviting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat to Camp David for a fresh round of Mideast peace talks in 2000. But after two weeks of talks, the summit ended without an agreement.

    George W. Bush visited often, hosting an array of foreign leaders and spending Christmases with his family. Britain’s Tony Blair was first to visit the newly elected Bush there in 2001.

    When reporters asked the president to describe something that he and Blair found they had in common, Bush quipped, “We both use Colgate toothpaste.”

    “They’re gonna wonder how you know that, George,” Blair responded.

    In addition to the G-8 summit, Obama hosted a group of Persian Gulf leaders in 2015.

    But Camp David is more than just a place for presidents to hold sensitive diplomatic talks with foreign leaders or ponder issues of war and peace. Its primary function is as a place for presidents, and their families, to escape Washington, a place where they can be themselves and where they can rest, relax and recharge as much as a 24/7 president is allowed to.

    The 180-acre (73-hectare) retreat has a cabin, named Aspen by first lady Mamie Eisenhower, that’s reserved for the president, plus about a dozen other cabins for guests. There’s a main lodge with conference rooms, a dining room and an office for the president.

    Guests have a range of indoor and outdoor amenities at their disposal, including a fitness center, bowling alley, movie theater, heated swimming pool, and tennis and basketball courts. There’s also a chapel for religious services.

    Carter liked to run on the trails. Ronald Reagan liked to ride horses and is the president who spent the most time at Camp David, said Fling, the historian.

    “Reagan really enjoyed visiting Camp David,” she said. “He and first lady Nancy Reagan enjoyed just going and spending time together there as a couple.”

    Susan Ford, President Gerald Ford’s daughter, once described it as a place where “you could go and have fun and be silly and not end up in the press.”

    One presidential wedding has been held there. Bush’s sister, Dorothy, married her second husband, Robert Koch, at Camp David in 1992.

    Biden goes to spend time with his family. He first visited in February 2021, weeks after taking office, and trounced one of his granddaughters as they played the Mario Kart video game, according to a post on Naomi Biden Neal’s social media accounts.

    Biden has returned 27 times since, spending all or part of a total of 96 days, according to Mark Knoller, a former CBS News White House correspondent who keeps presidential statistics.

    [ad_2]

    Source link