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  • Column: Pedophile panic and coming political violence. What the Paul Pelosi case revealed

    Column: Pedophile panic and coming political violence. What the Paul Pelosi case revealed

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    A unicorn costume, a hammer and a belief that pedophiles are using public schools to destroy democracy: The trial of David DePape for attacking Paul Pelosi was strange and disturbing.

    But take away the costume and the hammer, and the reasoning for DePape’s vicious attack is alarmingly mainstream — pedophile panic.

    By that, I mean the outrageous effort not just by hate-mongering conspiracy theorists to frame LGBTQ+ individuals as deviant and dangerous, lumping them in with criminals who sexually abuse children. But also a cynical bid by some politicians, clergy and grifters to do the same.

    Anti-LGBTQ+ attacks are everywhere, both physical and political. Hysteria about pedophiles, driven by conspiracy theories, has trampled truth.

    As DePape explained it on the stand, he is concerned about “groomer schools,” where teachers are “queering the students, pushing transgenderism to confuse children about their identities to make them more vulnerable to abuse and Marxist indoctrination.”

    Sound familiar? It could have been a quote from a Huntington Beach City Council meeting, a Republican presidential rally or a debate on the floor of the Florida Legislature, where the controversial “don’t say gay” bill last year was described by an aide to Gov. Ron DeSantis as an “anti-grooming” law.

    The quote is, in fact, DePape’s summary of what he learned from right-wing podcaster James Lindsay about one of DePape’s top targets, a professor of feminist theory and queer studies whose house seemed, to DePape, too difficult to break into. So he went to Pelosi’s brick mansion instead.

    When a San Francisco jury came back with a guilty verdict against DePape, it was hardly a bombshell. It is fact that DePape smashed a hammer into Pelosi’s skull, a brutal act caught on camera and uncontested even by his own lawyers.

    What was lost with the quickness of the in-an-out, no-surprises trial — and what should be chilling to any supporter of civil rights — was the defense team’s argument about why DePape created his elaborate plot, which was going to involve donning the unicorn costume while interrogating the victim’s wife, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, about government corruption, and, you guessed it, pedophiles.

    It wasn’t conventional politics. It wasn’t even aimed at Nancy Pelosi. The powerful San Francisco Democrat was somewhere down a list that included the mother of DePape’s two sons, Tom Hanks, George Soros, Hunter Biden and performance artist Marina Abramovic.

    DePape was propelled by the hyper-drive conspiracies that have bled out from internet chat rooms onto streets and into school boards — amped-up paranoia about threats not just to the white Christian values that some perceive as intrinsic to our country’s identity, but to the safety of our children.

    “It’s not just that she’s a pedo-activist. It’s that she wants to turn all the schools into pedophile molestation factories,” DePape said of the queer studies professor he was targeting.

    “She wants to destroy children’s sense of identity because it’s her opinion that this will lead them to grow up dysfunctional and unhappy. And if they’re dysfunctional and unhappy, they will be maladjusted to society, hate society, and want to become communist activists,” he said.

    Those kind of beliefs, ugly and untrue, can no longer be considered extreme, or extremism.

    Take, for example, this commentary from earlier this year by Jonathan Butcher, a fellow at the ultraconservative and ultra-influential Heritage Foundation:

    “For parents, rejecting radical gender theory is a matter of protecting their children. The rest of us, though, should reject queer theory’s attempt to gain control of the next generation,” he wrote.

    Or the mugshot meme Donald Trump posted not too long ago insinuating that pedophiles were out to get him.

    Or Trump’s recent sit-down interview with conservative activists Moms for America, in which he lamented that the “indoctrination programs” at public schools are “out of control” and promised quickly to end them if elected.

    Jared Dmello, an expert on extremism and an incoming senior lecturer at University of Adelaide in Australia, told me that mainstream politics is “driving an anti-LGBTQ ideology.”

    Where once conspiracy was relegated to dark corners, it now has a symbiotic relationship with the mainstream, he said, each building off whatever “evidence” or current events play into the narrative with such speed and force that the sheer amount of information makes it seem like it must be true.

    “The whole goal is to introduce so much chaos into the atmosphere that it’s hard to distinguish what is fact from fiction,” he said.

    Mission accomplished.

    A recent Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) poll on threats to American democracy found 59% of Republicans think that what children are learning in school is a critical issue facing the United States. A 2022 poll by USC found that while roughly 60% of Democrats support teaching high school students about gender identity, gay and transgender rights or sexual orientation, only about 30% of Republicans feel the same.

    Of course, parents have good reasons to be concerned about public schools, especially in the wake of the pandemic when teachers are burned out, budgets are tight and students are coping with sky-high levels of mental health challenges.

    But Joan Donovan, an expert in disinformation and a professor at Boston University, told me that while violence remains rare, vigilantes such DePape aren’t the lone wolves we like to believe. She said violence, whether by individuals or groups, is going to increase as the 2024 election nears.

    “I wish it were the case that they were fringe, but they do seem to represent a larger sentiment online,” she said. “Of course taking action in the form of assaulting or attempting to murder people is in and of itself horrendous, but if you look at the kind of discourse that emboldens these people, it’s the natural outcome.”

    Support for political violence has increased over the past two years, with nearly a quarter of Americans now agreeing that “because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country.” That comes from the recent PRRI poll on threats to American democracy.

    That percentage has increased from 15% in 2021.

    But get ready for it: 41% of Republicans who like Trump agreed violence may be necessary, and 46% of Trump supporters who believe the election was stolen also believe violence may be an answer. That’s nearly half.

    By all accounts, DePape was just a lonesome loser, unremarkable and peaceful, until he started delving into conspiracy theories during the pandemic. Living in a Bay Area garage that didn’t even have a bathroom, he spent his free time — hours every day — playing video games while listening to conspiracy podcasters pushing what we were then calling QAnon.

    I won’t go so far as to say he was a victim, but he was a vessel for a fire hose flow of propaganda, holding it all in until doing nothing seemed unconscionable. He is accountable for his violence, but it is clear he has lost the ability to parse truth from that swamp of what he calls research.

    Somewhere along his journey, DePape began believing that a secret cabal of so-called elites was ruling the world and participating in a cult that sexually abused children.

    That’s how DePape came up with his list of targets — most of those on it are somewhere in QAnon lore — a set of conspiracies that QAnon expert and Michigan State University professor Laura Dilley told me “absolutely are endemic now.”

    At its core, the political turmoil caused by these falsehoods is not much different from the satanic panic that ruled in the 1980s, driven by discomfort with more women joining the workforce and leaving their children in day care. Then, too, conservatives vilified the LGBTQ+ community to fuel fear that children were in danger and American society was on the brink of collapse.

    And Donovan points out that even the KKK focused on children and education in the 1920s, with the same arguments about American values.

    So none of this is new.

    But we are capable of not repeating the past. Hate and conspiracy aren’t normal. They aren’t American values, to be debated as valid political positions.

    David DePape was fighting an enemy conjured by lies. That enemy may not be real, but the danger of those lies is.

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    Anita Chabria

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  • Putin hijacks Israel-Gaza war to fuel tensions in the West

    Putin hijacks Israel-Gaza war to fuel tensions in the West

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    The Israeli-Hamas war has given Russia a golden opportunity to sow division among its Western enemies. It’s a chance Vladimir Putin’s disinformation machine was never going to miss.

    Since the outbreak of hostilities on October 7, Kremlin-linked Facebook accounts have ramped up their output by almost 400 percent, with the Middle East crisis now dominating posts from Russian diplomats, state-backed outlets and Putin supporters in the West. 

    The lies spread by Moscow’s digital propagandists now include claims that Hamas terrorists are using NATO weapons to attack Israel and that British instructors trained Hamas attackers.

    The entrenched — and bloody — conflict represents a double opportunity for Putin.

    It allows Russia to foment division in the West via targeted social media activity aimed at splitting those in support of Israel from those who back Palestine. Real-world violence, particularly against Jews, has spiked over the last seven weeks and anti-war protests by hundreds of thousands of people have sprouted up from London to Washington.

    Russia’s Middle East social media onslaught also pulls public attention away from its war in Ukraine, which has become bogged down after a succession of military missteps, a mutiny by Wagner mercenaries, and a long-running counteroffensive from Kyiv.

    “Taking attention off Ukraine is only a good thing for Russia,” said Bret Schafer, head of the information manipulation team and the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ Alliance for Securing Democracy, a Washington-based think tank. “The more the Western public is focused on Israel and Hamas, the less they’re paying attention to the fact that Congress is about to not fund Ukraine’s war effort,” he added. “Shining a light on other places pulls attention away from Ukraine.”

    The Kremlin’s online assault mirrors Putin’s geopolitical game-playing since the Hamas attacks of October 7.

    His government hosted Hamas leaders in Moscow at the end of October — apparently as he sought to play a mediation role on the release of Israeli hostages. Russia and Hamas have a common ally in Iran and Putin himself has warned that Israeli military action in Gaza could escalate beyond the region.

    The Kremlin was quick to weaponize the Israel-Hamas war for its own propaganda purposes.

    In the seven weeks since Hamas fighters attacked Israel, Russian Facebook accounts have posted 44,000 times compared to a mere 14,000 posts in the seven weeks before the conflict began, according to data compiled by the Alliance for Securing Democracy. In total, Russian-backed social media activity on Facebook was shared almost 400,000 times collectively, a four-fold increase compared to posts published before the conflict.

    The most-shared keywords now include many phrases associated with the conflict like “Hamas” and the “Middle East,” while before the war, Russia’s state media and diplomatic accounts had focused almost exclusively on either Ukraine or Putin’s role in the world.

    The near-400 percent increase in posts from Russian government-linked accounts represents a drop in the ocean compared to the millions of Facebook posts about the Middle East conflict from regular social media users over the same time period. But many of the Kremlin-backed accounts — especially those from sanctioned media outlets like RT and Sputnik — have an oversized digital reach. Collectively, these companies boast millions of followers in Europe, Latin America and Africa, even though the EU has imposed sanctions on their broadcast and social media operations.

    Surfing the wave

    “They use whatever they can to spread anti-West messaging,” said Jakub Kalenský, a deputy director at the European Center of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, a joint NATO-EU organization tracking state-backed influence campaigns. “They surf on the wave of the news cycle because they are competing for the same audience that is consuming solid media sources.”

    Such digital propaganda can have real-world effects. Some in the West now openly question how long governments can support Ukraine in its costly war against Russia in a time of economic uncertainty.

    In France, for instance, the foreign affairs ministry accused a Russian-affiliated network of social media bots of amplifying anti-semitic images of Stars of David graffiti on buildings across Paris. French officials blamed Russia for “creating tensions” between supporters of Israel and those who favored Palestine. The Russian embassy in Paris said Moscow had no ties to the covert digital activity. 

    The goal of the clandestine campaign was to heighten real-world tensions — both in France and across Western Europe — over which side governments are backing, according to two senior European officials speaking on condition of anonymity.

    “What happens online never just stays online anymore,” one of the officials said.

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    Mark Scott

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  • Member of Yakyn-Inkar extremist group from Suzak showed police premises where he hid 35 kg of marijuana – Medical Marijuana Program Connection

    Member of Yakyn-Inkar extremist group from Suzak showed police premises where he hid 35 kg of marijuana – Medical Marijuana Program Connection

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    Member of Yakyn-Inkar extremist group from Suzak showed police premises where he hid 35 kg of marijuana

    AKIPRESS.COM – Police in Jalal-Abad region discovered a warehouse with 35 kg of marijuana.

    Based on operational information, the Suzak District Police opened a criminal case against a citizen G.M. for illegally using and storing narcotic drugs.

    The search revealed a lab in G.M.’s house.

    Forensic examination identified the substance as marijuana, weighing 35.581 kg.

    G.M., with a previous criminal record, is detained at the Suzak District Police Department, registered since 2018 for membership in the extremist organization Yakyn-Inkar.

    Investigation is ongoing.

    Original Author Link click here to read complete story..

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    MMP News Author

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  • China is using the world’s largest known online disinformation operation to harass Americans, a CNN review finds | CNN

    China is using the world’s largest known online disinformation operation to harass Americans, a CNN review finds | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    The Chinese government has built up the world’s largest known online disinformation operation and is using it to harass US residents, politicians, and businesses—at times threatening its targets with violence, a CNN review of court documents and public disclosures by social media companies has found.

    The onslaught of attacks – often of a vile and deeply personal nature – is part of a well-organized, increasingly brazen Chinese government intimidation campaign targeting people in the United States, documents show.

    The US State Department says the tactics are part of a broader multi-billion-dollar effort to shape the world’s information environment and silence critics of Beijing that has expanded under President Xi Jinping. On Wednesday, President Biden is due to meet Xi at a summit in San Francisco.

    Victims face a barrage of tens of thousands of social media posts that call them traitors, dogs, and racist and homophobic slurs. They say it’s all part of an effort to drive them into a state of constant fear and paranoia.

    Often, these victims don’t know where to turn. Some have spoken to law enforcement, including the FBI – but little has been done. While tech and social media companies have shut down thousands of accounts targeting these victims, they’re outpaced by a slew of new accounts emerging virtually every day.

    Known as “Spamouflage” or “Dragonbridge,” the network’s hundreds of thousands of accounts spread across every major social media platform have not only harassed Americans who have criticized the Chinese Communist Party, but have also sought to discredit US politicians, disparage American companies at odds with China’s interests and hijack online conversations around the globe that could portray the CCP in a negative light.

    Private researchers have tracked the network since its discovery more than four years ago, but only in recent months have federal prosecutors and Facebook’s parent company Meta publicly concluded that the operation has ties to Chinese police.

    Meta announced in August it had taken down a cluster of nearly 8,000 accounts attributed to this group in the second quarter of 2023 alone. Google, which owns YouTube, told CNN it had shut down more than 100,000 associated accounts in recent years, while X, formerly known as Twitter, has blocked hundreds of thousands of China “state-backed” or “state-linked” accounts, according to company blogs.

    Still, given the relatively low cost of such operations, experts who monitor disinformation warn the Chinese government will continue to use these tactics to try to bend online discussions closer to the CCP’s preferred narrative, which frequently entails trying to undermine the US and democratic values.

    “We might think that this is confined to certain chatrooms, or this platform or that platform, but it’s expanding across the board,” Rep. Mike Gallagher, chairman of the House Select Committee on the CCP, told CNN. “And it’s only a matter of time before it happens to that average American citizen who doesn’t think it’s their problem right now.”

    When trolls disrupted an anti-communism Zoom event organized by New York-based activist Chen Pokong in January 2021, he had little doubt who was responsible. The trolls mocked participants and threatened that one victim would “die miserably.” Their conduct reminded Chen of repression by the government of China, where he spent nearly five years in prison for pro-democracy work.

    But his suspicions about who was behind the interruption were solidified when the US Department of Justice charged more than 30 Chinese officials earlier this year with running a sprawling disinformation operation that had targeted dissidents in the US, including those in the Zoom meeting Chen says he hosted in 2021.

    It was just one of multiple indictments the Justice Department unsealed in April exposing alleged Chinese government plots to target its perceived critics and enemies, while impugning the sovereignty of the United States. Two alleged Chinese operatives were charged with running an “undeclared police station” in New York City. Last year, another indictment outlined how Chinese agents allegedly tried to derail the congressional campaign of a Chinese dissident.

    “They want to deprive my freedom of speech, so I feel like it’s not only an attack on me,” said Chen, who was ejected from his own meeting during the disruption. “They also attack America.”

    The DOJ complaint named 34 individual officers with China’s Ministry of Public Security and published photographs of them at computers, allegedly working on the disinformation campaign known as the “912 Special Project Working Group.” The operation, primarily based in Beijing, appears to involve “hundreds” of MPS officers across the country, according to an FBI agent’s affidavit.

    The complaint does not refer to the cluster of fake accounts as “Spamouflage,” but private researchers and a spokesperson for Meta told CNN that the social media activity described by the DOJ is part of that network. As part of a mission “to manipulate public perceptions of [China], the Group uses its misattributed social media accounts to threaten, harass and intimidate specific victims,” the complaint states.

    When asked about Spamouflage’s reported links to Chinese law enforcement, a spokesperson for China’s embassy in Washington, Liu Pengyu, denied the allegations.

    “China always respects the sovereignty of other countries. The US accusation has no factual evidence or legal basis. It is entirely politically motivated. China firmly opposes it,” Liu said in a statement to CNN. He claimed that the US “invented the weaponizing of the global information space.”

    A report released by Meta in August illustrates how the posts from the network often align with the workday hours in China. The report described “bursts of activity in the mid-morning and early afternoon, Beijing time, with breaks for lunch and supper, and then a final burst of activity in the evening.”

    And while Meta detected posts from various regions in China, the company and other researchers have found centralized coordination that relentlessly pushed identical messages across multiple social media platforms, sometimes repeatedly insulting the same individuals who have questioned the Chinese government.

    One of those individuals is Jiayang Fan, a journalist for The New Yorker who told CNN she began facing harassment by the network when she covered pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong in 2019.

    Jiayang Fan, a US-based journalist, says the online harrassment against her began when she covered the 2019 pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.

    Attacks directed at Fan – which ranged from cartoons of her painting her face white as though rejecting her identity to accusations that she killed her mother for profit – carry telltale signs of the Spamouflage network, said Darren Linvill of the Media Forensics Hub at Clemson University. Linvill’s group found more than 12,000 tweets attacking Fan using the same hashtag, #TraitorJiayangFan.

    Although she hasn’t lived in China since she was a child, Fan believes such messages have been levelled against her to spark fear and silence others.

    “This is part of a very old Chinese Communist Party playbook to intimidate offenders and aspiring offenders,” said Fan, who questioned what her distant relatives in China may think when they see such content. “It is uncomfortable for me to know that they are seeing these portrayals of me and have no idea what to believe.”

    Experts who track online influence campaigns say there are signs of a shift in China’s strategy in recent years. In the past, the Spamouflage network mostly focused on issues domestically relevant to China. However, more recently, accounts tied to the group have been stoking controversy around global issues, including developments in the United States.

    Spamouflage accounts – some of which posed as Texas residents – called for protests of plans to build a rare-earths processing facility in Texas and spread negative messages about a separate US manufacturing company, according to a report by cybersecurity firm Mandiant last year. The report also described how the campaign promoted negative content about the Biden administration’s efforts to hasten mineral production that would curb US reliance on China.

    Other posts by the network have referenced how “racism is an indelible shame on American democracy” and how the US committed “cultural genocide against the Indians,” according to a Meta report in August. Another post claimed that former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is “riddled with scandals.”

    Chinese government-linked accounts have also posted messages that included a call to “kill” President Biden, a cartoon featuring the so-called QAnon Shaman who rioted at the US Capitol as a symbol of “western style democracy,” and a post that suggested US defense contractors profit off the deaths of innocent people, according to a Department of Homeland Security report in April obtained through a records request.

    The DOJ complaint filed against Chinese officials alleged that last year they sought to take advantage of the second anniversary of George Floyd’s death and post on social media about his murder to “reveal the law enforcement brutality” in the US. They also received a task to “work on 2022 US midterm elections and criticize American democracy.”

    Spamouflage is “evolving in tactics. It’s evolving in themes,” said Ben Nimmo, the global lead for threat intelligence at Meta. “Our job is to keep on raising our defenses and keep on telling people about it, especially as we get closer to the election year.”

    Yet as social media companies race to stop disinformation and the US government files complaints against those allegedly responsible, accountability can be elusive.

    “This is the rub with a lot of cybercrimes, that it becomes very, very difficult to actually put the perpetrators in jail,” said Lindsay Gorman, the head of technology and geopolitics at the German Marshall Fund’s Alliance for Securing Democracy.

    But, Gorman added, that doesn’t mean there are no consequences for China.

    “Even if individuals have a degree of impunity because they are never planning on coming to the United States anyway, that doesn’t mean that the party operation has impunity here – certainly not in terms of public opinion, certainly not in terms of US-China relations,” she said.

    Meta, Google, and other companies that have published reports outing Spamouflage stress that most of the social media accounts within the network receive little or no engagement, meaning they rarely go viral.

    But Linvill of Clemson University argues that the network uses a unique strategy of “flooding” conversations with so many comments that posts from genuine users receive less attention. This includes posting on platforms typically not associated with disinformation, such as Pinterest.

    “They are operating thousands of accounts at a time on a given platform, often to drown out conversations, just with sheer volume of messaging,” Linvill said. “When we think of disinformation, we often think of pushing ideas on users and making ideas more salient, whereas what China is doing is the opposite. They are trying to remove conversations from social media.”

    When Beijing hosted the 2022 Winter Olympics, for example, human rights groups began promoting the hashtag #GenocideGames to bring attention to accusations that China has detained more than a million Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in internment camps.

    But then something surprising happened. Accounts that Linvill and his colleagues believed were part of Spamouflage started tweeting the hashtag too.

    It might be counterintuitive for a pro-Chinese government group to start spreading a hashtag that brought attention to the Chinese government’s human rights’ abuses, Linvill explained. But by using the hashtag repeatedly in tweets that had nothing to do with the issue itself, Spamouflage was able to reduce views on the legitimate messages.

    Jiajun Qiu, whose academic work focused on elections and who fled China in 2016, showed CNN what happens when he types his name into X, formerly known as Twitter. There are sometimes dozens of accounts pretending to be him by using his name and photo.

    Jiajun Qiu, who fled China in 2016, has faced an onslaught of Spamouflage trolls.

    They are designed by the operators of Spamouflage, Linvill explained, to confuse people and prevent them from finding Qiu’s real account by muddying the waters.

    Now living in Virginia, Qiu runs a pro-democracy YouTube channel and has faced an onslaught of homophobic, racist and bizarre insults from social media accounts that Linvill’s team and others have tied to Spamouflage.

    Some accounts have posted cartoons that convey Qiu as an insect working on behalf of the US government. Another image depicts him being stomped by a cartoon Jesus. Yet another paints him as a dog on the leash of an American rat.

    “I tell people the truth, so they want to do anything possible to insult me,” Qiu said.

    Linvill and his team have tracked hundreds of these cartoons across the internet, and said they are a “tell” of Spamouflage. Cartoons, Linvill explained, can be more effective than text because they are “eye-catching” and “you have to stop and look at it.” In addition, these original cartoons can easily be translated into hundreds of languages at a very low cost.

    Beyond the online smears, Qiu says he has also faced threats via other online messages and escalatory calls from unidentified sources who he believes have ties to the Chinese government. One anonymous message told him he would be arrested and brought to justice for breaking Chinese law. An email referenced the church he attends in Manassas, Virginia and said, “for his own safety and that of the worshippers, he would do well to find another place to stay.”

    Qiu told CNN that the FBI has interviewed him four times regarding these threats, and that he has been instructed to contact local police if he is ever followed.

    “Every day I live in a sense of fear,” Qiu said.

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  • Australian prime minister to protest blogger’s detention conditions while meeting China’s leader

    Australian prime minister to protest blogger’s detention conditions while meeting China’s leader

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    CANBERRA, Australia — Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Saturday he would protest a lack of transparency in China’s treatment of a detained Australian democracy blogger when meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing during a trade-focused state visit.

    The detention of Yang Hengjun without conviction for almost five years will be one of the topics raised with Xi when they meet in the Great Hall of the People on Monday.

    Yang is being held in a Beijing detention center awaiting the verdict of a 2021 closed-door trial on espionage charges. The 58-year-old’s family fears he is dying.

    “I’ll be saying that Dr. Yang’s case needs to be resolved and I’ll be speaking about his human rights, the nature of the detention and the failure to have transparent processes,” Albanese told reporters in the northern Australian city of Darwin hours before he flew to Shanghai.

    The Chinese Foreign Ministry this week defended Yang’s prosecution, saying his case had been handled in strict accordance with the law.

    Chinese state broadcaster CCTV announced that Albanese arrived in the Chinese financial hub Saturday afternoon along with his delegation, becoming the first Australian prime minister to visit China since 2016. The visit signals an improvement in strained relations between the two nations since Australia’s center-left government was elected last year.

    “It’s very good to be here,” he told Australian reporters on the tarmac. “I look forward to the visit.”

    He was greeted by China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, and Australia’s ambassador to China, Graham Fletcher. Albanese was handed a bouquet of flowers by a young girl.

    Albanese has been raising the plights of Yang and another detained Australian, journalist Cheng Lei, with Chinese leaders since he first met Xi on the sidelines of a Group of 20 summit in Indonesia a year ago.

    Cheng was freed and deported last month after three years in a Beijing detention for breaking a government-imposed embargo by a few minutes. Her release was interpreted as a Chinese concession ahead of Albanese’s visit.

    Albanese is to meet on Tuesday with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, whose message of congratulations soon after the prime minister’s election victory on May 21 last year raised the prospects of a reset in bilateral relations.

    Beijing has previously refused top-level ministerial contacts between the two countries.

    From the outset of his prime ministership, Albanese had demanded that China immediately lift what he described as “unjustified” official and unofficial trade barriers costing Australian exporters 20 billion Australian dollars ($13 billion) a year.

    Those barriers have since been substantially reduced and now cost around AU$2 billion ($1.3 billion).

    Albanese on Saturday credited his government’s different approach toward China for what he describes as “stabilizing” the relationship, after nine years of conservative rule in Australia.

    “My approach towards this relationship has been patient, deliberate and measured, making sure that both of our interests are put forward because that is the way that good diplomacy works,” Albanese said.

    “The fact that it is the first visit in seven years to our major trading partner is a very positive step, and I look forward to constructive discussions and dialogue with the president and the premier during my visit to Shanghai and Beijing,” he added.

    China is concerned by the level of restrictions placed on Chinese investment in Australia due to growing security concerns.

    Around 400 Australian executives who do business with China are expected to attend a lunch with Albanese in Shanghai on Sunday. Many urge Australia to ease restrictions on Chinese investment.

    “Chinese investment shouldn’t be a dirty word,” David Olsson, president of the Australia China Business Council, told The Australian Financial Review newspaper.

    Albanese will visit Shanghai to attend the opening of the China International Import Expo trade fair where more than 200 Australian companies will be represented.

    During the three-day visit, Albanese will focus on reinvigorating the China-Australia free trade agreement, resolving the remaining Chinese trade bans and finding agreement on how to settle future trade disputes, his office said.

    Trade Minister Don Farrell, Foreign Minister Penny Wong and an Australian business delegation are traveling with him.

    China is Australia’s largest export market, particularly for iron ore, natural gas and critical minerals such as lithium.

    Albanese has signaled that Australia won’t back China’s bid to join the free trade agreement known as the 12-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

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  • Australian premier will protest blogger’s detention conditions while meeting the Chinese president

    Australian premier will protest blogger’s detention conditions while meeting the Chinese president

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    CANBERRA, Australia — Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Saturday he would protest a lack of transparency in China’s treatment of a detained Australian democracy blogger when meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing during a trade-focused state visit.

    The detention of Yang Hengjun without conviction for almost five years will be one of the topics raised with Xi when they meet in the Great Hall of the People on Monday.

    Yang is being held in a Beijing detention center awaiting the verdict of a 2021 closed-door trial on espionage charges. The 58-year-old’s family fears he is dying.

    “I’ll be saying that Dr. Yang’s case needs to be resolved and I’ll be speaking about his human rights, the nature of the detention and the failure to have transparent processes,” Albanese told reporters in the northern Australian city of Darwin hours before he was to fly to Shanghai.

    The Chinese Foreign Ministry this week defended Yang’s prosecution, saying his case had been handled in strict accordance with the law.

    Chinese state broadcaster CCTV announced that Albanese had arrived in the Chinese financial hub Saturday afternoon along with his delegation, becoming the first Australian prime minister to visit China since 2016. The visit signals an improvement in strained relations between the two nations since Australia’s center-left government was elected last year.

    “It’s very good to be here,” he told Australian reporters on the tarmac. “I look forward to the visit.”

    He was greeted by China’s Ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian and Australia’s Ambassador to China Graham Fletcher. Albanese was handed a bouquet of flowers by a young girl.

    Albanese has been raising the plights of Yang and another detained Australian, journalist Cheng Lei, with Chinese leaders since he first met Xi on the sidelines of a Group of 20 summit in Indonesia a year ago.

    Cheng was freed and deported last month after three years in a Beijing detention for breaking a government-imposed embargo by a few minutes. Her release was interpreted as a Chinese concession ahead of Albanese’s visit.

    Albanese will on Tuesday meet Chinese Premier Li Qiang, whose message of congratulations soon after the prime minister’s election victory on May 21 last year raised the prospects of a reset in bilateral relations.

    Beijing has previously refused top-level ministerial contacts between the two countries.

    From the outset of his prime ministership, Albanese had demanded that China immediately lift what he described as “unjustified” official and unofficial trade barriers costing Australian exporters 20 billion Australian dollars ($13 billion) a year.

    Those barriers have since been substantially reduced and now cost around AU$2 billion ($1.3 billion).

    Albanese on Saturday credited his government’s different approach toward China for what he describes as “stabilizing” the relationship, after nine years of conservative rule in Australia.

    “My approach towards this relationship has been patient, deliberate and measured, making sure that both of our interests are put forward because that is the way that good diplomacy works,” Albanese said.

    “The fact that it is the first visit in seven years to our major trading partner is a very positive step, and I look forward to constructive discussions and dialogue with the president and the premier during my visit to Shanghai and Beijing,” he added.

    China is concerned by the level of restrictions placed on Chinese investment in Australia due to growing security concerns.

    Around 400 Australian executives who do business with China are expected to attend a lunch with Albanese in Shanghai on Sunday. Many urge Australia to ease restrictions on Chinese investment.

    “Chinese investment shouldn’t be a dirty word,” David Olsson, president of the Australia China Business Council, told The Australian Financial Review newspaper.

    Albanese will visit Shanghai to attend the opening of the China International Import Expo trade fair where more than 200 Australian companies will be represented.

    During the three-day visit, Albanese will focus on reinvigorating the China-Australia free trade agreement, resolving the remaining Chinese trade bans and finding agreement on how to settle future trade disputes, his office said.

    Trade Minister Don Farrell, Foreign Minister Penny Wong and an Australian business delegation are traveling with him.

    China is Australia’s largest export market, particularly for iron ore, natural gas and critical minerals such as lithium.

    Albanese has signaled that Australia won’t back China’s bid to join the free trade agreement known as the 12-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

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  • The White House Historical Association is opening a technology-driven educational center in 2024

    The White House Historical Association is opening a technology-driven educational center in 2024

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    WASHINGTON — A White House tour is practically a must-do when visiting Washington, but the experience can leave some guests wondering about spaces they didn’t get to see, like the Oval Office.

    The White House Historical Association hopes to provide answers to some of those questions when it opens The People’s House: A White House Experience, in the fall of 2024.

    Situated on three floors of a building a block from the White House at Pennsylvania Avenue and 17th Street, the $30 million educational center will use cutting-edge technology to teach the public about the storied executive mansion and its history.

    “This will be a technology-rich, immersive experience where you will actually go into spaces and, due to the miracles of modern technology, those spaces will become White House rooms around you,” Stewart McLaurin, the association’s president, told The Associated Press before the project was announced to the public on Friday.

    The center will feature a large cutaway model of the White House with rooms that, with the help of technology, can morph into the Green Room, the Blue Room or the Red Room. A full-scale replica of the Oval Office will reflect the incumbent president’s décor. A recreation of the Rose Garden will offer the experience of strolling through its blooms.

    Upstairs galleries will allow visitors to experience the Cabinet Room, the State Dining Room and the movie theater. Another gallery will teach about the many unseen people — ushers, chefs, florists, butlers, housekeepers, electricians, plumbers, carpenters — who care for the White House and keep it functioning in its multiple roles as a home for the president and his family, an office for the president and his staff, a ceremonial stage and a museum.

    People will also learn about the slave labor that went into building the White House.

    McLaurin said The People’s House is meant to be a free enhancement for people who tour the White House, but it also will be an option for those who are unable to land a tour ticket.

    “When you have a tour of the White House, as wonderful as that is, because it is a working home and office, those are rather limited and you go through and you see the spaces and you have the experience of being there,” he said. “But you’re not able to linger there to really understand what happened in this space.”

    Plans for the The People’s House were revealed to donors attending the association’s premiere fundraising gala at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York on Thursday. First lady Jill Biden praised the project before the crowd at the private event., which was also attended by actors Michael Douglas and Martin Sheen. Both have played presidents on TV and film.

    “At its core, this project is about education,” she said. “Teaching our students about our country’s origins, bringing to life the countless people who shaped it and who made the White House into the beating heart of our democracy.”

    “As an educator, I believe that our present and our future are inextricably linked to our past,” she continued. “And when we learn from the past, we come away changed, not just better informed, but with a deeper understanding of the responsibility we hold as citizens of this country, a responsibility to each other, to our democracy and to upholding our freedoms.”

    “I think that’s needed now more than ever, at a time when our institutions are increasingly under attack, and some of our leaders seem intent on burying our history,” Biden added.

    The center will be open seven days a week, McLaurin said.

    The association is privately funded so “people can come to our experience even if the government has to close for whatever situation arises,” he said.

    About 500,000 people visit the White House yearly, McLaurin said. He said he hopes the new center will attract even more visitors than that.

    Besides the $30 million construction cost, the association is raising an additional $50 million for an endowment to fund operations, he said.

    The center will also incorporate a feature that the association has long wanted: an educational wing with classroom space for up to 200 students.

    The White House Historical Association was created in 1961 by first lady Jacqueline Kennedy to help preserve the museum quality of the interior of the White House and educate the public. It is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization that receives no government funding. It raises money mostly through private donations and sales of retail merchandise.

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  • Turkey celebrates 100th anniversary of republic with fireworks and navy procession

    Turkey celebrates 100th anniversary of republic with fireworks and navy procession

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    ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey’s government marked the 100th anniversary of the creation of the modern, secular republic from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire on Sunday with a firework and drone show in Istanbul as well as a procession of 100 hundred navy ships but little else in the way of pageantry.

    The rather muted celebration of the centennial, which included no gala reception, came months after a devastating earthquake that killed 50,000 people and coincided with the Israeli-Hamas war that has roiled the Middle East.

    The low-key celebrations caused dismay among many in Turkey who believe Erdogan’s government, which finds its roots in Turkey’s Islamic movement, is trying to undermine the legacy of the secular republic’s founding father, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

    Erdogan on Sunday observed the traditional protocol of laying a wreath at Ataturk’s mausoleum in the capital and shook hands with a procession of ambassadors and high-level officials offering their congratulations before traveling to Istanbul to watch the navy ships’ procession.

    The Turkish leader later delivered a speech at 19:23 p.m. in honor of the year the republic was proclaimed. He expressed his gratitude to Ataturk and others who helped create the republic but also highlighted his own achievements during his 20-year rule.

    Late in the evening, he posted a statement on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, declaring Monday a school holiday in honor of the centennial.

    Earlier this year, Erdogan invited a slew of foreign leaders to celebrate his reelection for a third term as president but has been criticized for not hosting a reception to mark the republic’s major milestone. State broadcaster TRT announced it was canceling special centennial programs due to the war in Gaza.

    Many in Turkey held their own private celebrations, joined processions holding torchlights and waving Turkish flags, or took part in events organized by opposition-run municipalities.

    In Istanbul, tens of thousands celebrated the anniversary at a concert organized by the city’s popular mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu. In the capital, Ankara, tens of thousands of others flocked to Ataturk’s mausoleum, many dressed in the flag’s red and white colors.

    Many said the official lineup of events did not do the centennial justice.

    ’’The government did its best to make these celebrations forgotten and to trivialize them,” said Gul Erbil, a 66-year-old retired film director who said she would toast the centennial at a restaurant with friends. “The sad thing is … it’s (their) republic too. It’s something that gave (them) freedom, too.”

    Meral Aksener, the leader of the center-right opposition IYI Party, accused the government of not missing the opportunity to ensure the “100th year (celebration) falls flat.”

    “There are those who still have a problem with our republic 100 years later,” Aksener said. She and others believe a mass pro-Palestinian rally on Saturday during which Erdogan escalated his criticism of Israel’s military actions in Gaza was specially organized to overshadow the centennial celebration.

    But Ahmet Hakan, columnist for the pro-government Hurriyet newspaper, says the scaled-back celebration became “inevitable” due to Israel’s actions in Gaza, which have triggered a wave of protests particularly in Muslim-majority countries, in response to Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7.

    A World War I hero who went on to lead a war of independence against occupying forces, Ataturk proclaimed the Turkish Republic on Oct. 29, 1923. He embarked on a series of radical reforms aimed at turning the majority Muslim nation into a secular, Western-style democracy. He abolished the caliphate, replaced the Arabic script with the Latin alphabet and gave women the right to vote.

    Ataturk is still held in high regard in the country where his portraits hang on walls of schools, offices and homes. Traffic comes to a standstill as thousands observe a minute of silence on the anniversary of his death. His signature is tattooed on arms.

    But not all sections of society were on board with Ataturk’s reforms. Erdogan and his religious support base take pride in Turkey’s Ottoman and Islamic past. Erdogan pays homage to Ataturk’s military achievements as an officer of the Ottoman Empire, but rarely praises his republican era.

    The Turkish leader speaks of ushering in a new era he has dubbed “The Century of Turkey,” with a new constitution that would uphold conservative family values and would have no room for what he has called “deviant” LGBTQ+ rights.

    “Today, our Republic completes its first century and sails into its second century, which we call ‘the Century of Turkey,'” Erdogan said in his speech, adding that his government’s aim for the upcoming period was to introduce a “constitution that befits the centenary of our republic.”

    “Erdogan wants to see Turkey become (a country) that embraces Erdogan’s values, that is socially conservative, not necessarily part of the West and also, I would say, has a significant role for Islam from education to public policy,” said Soner Cagaptay, an expert on Turkey at the Washington Institute and author of books on Erdogan.

    Critics say the Turkish leader has already moved Turkey further away from Ataturk’s vision.

    Official functions today often begin with prayers. The Directorate of Religious Affairs has been given a large budget that dwarfs most other ministries. The number of religious schools has increased in line with Erdogan’s stated goal of creating a “pious generation.”

    In 2020, Erdogan converted the former Byzantine-era church Hagia Sophia — which was turned into a mosque with the Ottoman conquest of Istanbul — back into a functioning mosque. Ataturk had transformed the structure into a museum in a nod to its Christian and Muslim legacy.

    ___

    Robert Badendieck contributed from Istanbul.

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  • David Lehrer, civil rights lawyer and longtime L.A. Jewish leader, dies at 75

    David Lehrer, civil rights lawyer and longtime L.A. Jewish leader, dies at 75

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    David A. Lehrer, a longtime leader in Los Angeles’ Jewish community and attorney who helped draft the state’s hate crime laws, has died. He was 75.

    He collapsed Wednesday at his Los Feliz home and could not be revived, his family said in a statement.

    Lehrer worked for almost 30 years in the West Coast office of the Anti-Defamation League, joining the ADL in 1975 as a civil rights attorney and later being promoted to regional director.

    He also led legislative efforts to outlaw tax-subsidized discrimination at private social clubs, including the Jonathan Club, and confronted neo-Nazi and other extremist groups in the West.

    Lehrer, a lifelong resident of Los Feliz, was an active longtime member of Temple Israel of Hollywood “and will be greatly missed by all who knew, worked with and loved him,” his family said.

    Lehrer was a first-generation Angeleno, born to parents who fled Europe to escape antisemitism.

    His mother, Gertrude “Trudy” Lehrer, escaped Vienna in 1938 just after Kristallnacht, or “the Night of Broken Glass,” when Nazis burned synagogues, destroyed Jewish businesses and homes and killed Jewish people in Germany and Austria.

    “Had she not gotten the visa for the United States, undoubtedly she would have perished in Austria and [in] the concentration camp,” Lehrer said in a tribute video for his mother’s 100th birthday.

    Lehrer died a year after his mother, who was a week shy of her 103rd birthday when she died in the same home, his family said.

    He was born Oct. 12, 1948, to Trudy and Irving Abraham Lehrer. He decided he wanted to be an attorney around 13, when he read “My Life in Court,” a 1961 memoir by trial attorney Louis Nizer.

    “He never changed his mind — he just wanted to be a lawyer,” his younger brother, Michael, said Friday.

    After graduating from UCLA School of Law in 1973, Lehrer joined a private firm where, a few years into it, he realized he was unhappy, his brother said.

    “He realized, ‘Why am I spending my time working to defend people and things I don’t really care about?’” Michael said.

    As an attorney at ADL, Lehrer appealed to the California Coastal Commission in 1985 to decline the request of the Jonathan Club — which leased 58,000 square feet of public land for its beachfront location — to improve its Santa Monica property unless the club enforced a nondiscrimination policy.

    After a three-year legal battle, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the state court’s decision, which had agreed the coastal panel was within its purview to demand the club enforce such a policy. The decision affected other wealthy social clubs around Los Angeles with a history of accepting only white Christian men.

    “It’s a part of the process of eliminating this last vestige of institutional bigotry, the country club and the downtown club, that are small enclaves of discrimination,” Lehrer told The Times in 1988.

    Longtime Times columnist Al Martinez wrote during the case that he’d known Lehrer many years and observed his fervent dedication to civil rights.

    “He can identify an antisemite in a room full of liberals while blindfolded, picking the racist out by only his vibrations, like a tiger shark selects its next meal,” Martinez wrote in 1985.

    In 1998, Lehrer was one of the first Jewish leaders to work with Muslim leaders and developed a code of ethics with them in 1998 to promote civil debate.

    After 27 years with the ADL, Lehrer was fired in 2001, a controversial move by the organization’s New York leadership — with whom Lehrer had political and personal disagreements — that was decried by many faith leaders in L.A., The Times reported. (He, privately and recently, made up with the man who fired him, his family said.)

    “Probably he is paying the price for the more balanced view he took toward Muslims,” Aslam Abdullah, vice president of the Muslim Public Affairs Council, said at the time.

    Lehrer bounced back quickly, working with community activist Joe Hicks to form Community Advocates, a nonprofit focused on race and human relations. The organization published articles, led programs and helped develop educational curricula aimed at promoting tolerance, his family said in a statement.

    In 2017, Lehrer was alarmed by the rhetoric of President Trump and his travel ban on Muslim-majority countries, and also disappointed that the Jewish community wasn’t raising its voice against the Trump administration’s outrageous policies, said former county Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky, who knew Lehrer for 50 years.

    Lehrer, Yaroslavsky and other prominent Jewish leaders launched Jews United for Democracy and Justice, an organization focused on protecting the country’s constitutional democracy.

    The group produced “America at a Crossroads,” a weekly online discussion hosting prominent experts and L.A. journalists.

    On Thursday, attorney and longtime activist Janice Kamenir-Reznik, his co-host, opened the show in honor of Lehrer.

    Kamenir-Reznik said more than 1,000 viewers emailed her after hearing of Lehrer’s death, noting that many told her that although they’d never met him, they felt as if they’d lost a beloved friend.

    “David was a magnificent tapestry of the most positive human characteristics,” Kamenir-Reznik said. “He was soft yet tough, bold yet humble, always ready to speak truth to power, to call out injustice and false information, and he was wise beyond measure.”

    Lehrer was aware of the enormous threats to the U.S. Constitution and democracy — but unwilling to yield to despair about the future, she said.

    Before every program, he asked moderators and guests to try to end each program with at least a drop of hope and optimism.

    “Because he couldn’t bear leaving you, our audience, depressed and hopeless,” Kamenir-Reznik said.

    In addition to his brother, Lehrer is survived by his wife, Ariella; his children Eli, Jonah, Rachel and Leah; a sister, Shelah; and nine grandchildren.

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    Jaclyn Cosgrove

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  • US warns of a Russian effort to sow doubt over the election outcomes in democracies around the globe

    US warns of a Russian effort to sow doubt over the election outcomes in democracies around the globe

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    The U.S. is warning nearly 100 countries that Russian intelligence is opening a new front in its efforts to destabilize democracies by amplifying doubts about the legitimacy of vote-counting and elections, senior government officials said Friday.

    Russia has long advocated overtly and covertly for candidates it backs to win elections in other countries, but intelligence officials say they have recently identified a new tactic — sowing doubts about the reliability of democracy itself.

    “Russia is pursuing operations to degrade public confidence in the integrity of elections themselves,” the U.S. stated in a cable sent this week to embassies in more than 90 countries to be passed onto those governments. The document was obtained by The Associated Press.

    A message left with the Russian embassy in Washington was not immediately returned.

    Russia appears encouraged by its success in amplifying the lies by former President Donald Trump and his supporters during and after the 2020 presidential election falsely blaming widespread fraud for his loss. Those lies helped spark the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol and continue to resonate to this day, contributing to the paralysis in the House of Representatives, where the Republican majority had been considering placing one of the lie’s loudest congressional proponents, Rep. Jim Jordan, in charge.

    “It is our view that Russia is capitalizing on what it sees as a relatively inexpensive success in the United States in 2020 to take this global,” a senior intelligence official said on a call with reporters on Friday.

    Officials on the call spoke on condition that their names not be disclosed so they could discuss U.S. intelligence.

    The warning comes before next year’s presidential elections in the U.S., where Trump is the heavy favorite to win his party’s nomination, and elections in other democracies, including for the European Union parliament in June of 2024.

    In its warning to other nations, the U.S. said a review of elections between 2020 and 2022 found 11 separate contests in nine countries where Russia “engaged in a concerted effort” to undermine confidence in election outcomes. It found examples in 17 additional democracies of a “less-pronounced” campaign to amplify domestic questions about the reliability of elections.

    During a European country’s 2020 election, the cable states, Russia’s intelligence agency “attempted through proxies to deploy agitators to intimidate campaign workers, organize protests on Election Day, and sabotage overseas voting.”

    In one South American country’s election, the document states, “Russian Telegram channels included false coverage of alleged fraud, and Russian trolls across a range of social media websites sought to amplify concerns about post-election instability.”

    Officials declined to further identify the targeted countries, saying the U.S. has warned them of the attempts and wants to respect their privacy. They recommended several steps to counter the influence operations, including fact-based messaging about election security, public disclosure of efforts to undermine democracy and possible sanctions or removal of bad actors.

    The U.S. has long targeted Russia as an agitator in U.S. elections, saying it was behind an influence campaign aimed at elevating Trump in the 2016 presidential election and accessing voter registration data in Illinois the same year.

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  • What happens next in Poland? 5 things you need to know after a landmark election

    What happens next in Poland? 5 things you need to know after a landmark election

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    WARSAW — After eight years of rule by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, Polish voters on Sunday chose change — giving three opposition democratic parties enough seats to form a new government.

    So now is the way clear to bring Poland back into the European mainstream after dallying as an illiberal democracy?

    Not so fast.

    The country’s likely ruling coalition faces years of very hard political graft to undo the changes wrought by PiS since 2015.

    Here are five main takeaways from an election that will shake Poland and Europe.

    1. Job No. 1 — creating a new government

    The final result puts PiS in first place, with 35.4 percent, according to a preliminary vote count, and 194 seats, but that’s too few for a majority in the 460-member lower house of parliament.

    “We will definitely try to build a parliamentary majority,” said Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

    The first move belongs to President Andrzej Duda, a former PiS member who has always been loyal to the party. He has said that presidents traditionally choose the leader of the largest party to try to form a government, but if PiS really is a no-hoper, Duda could delay the formation of a stable government.

    Under the Polish constitution, the president has to call a new parliamentary session within 30 days of the election. He then has 14 days to nominate a candidate for prime minister; once named, the nominee has 14 days to win a vote of confidence in parliament.

    If that fails, parliament then chooses a nominee for PM.

    That means if Duda sticks with PiS, it could be mid-December before the three opposition parties — Civic Coalition, the Third Way and the Left — get a chance to form a government. Together, they have 248 seats in the new legislature.

    There are already voices calling on the opposition to short-circuit that by striking a coalition deal with the signatures of at least 231 MPs, demonstrating to Duda that they have a lock on forming a government.

    Once in power, the opposition will find that ruling isn’t easy.

    What unites the three is their distaste for PiS, but their programs differ markedly.

    Civic Coalition, the largest party under the leadership of Donald Tusk, a former prime minister and European Council president, is part of the center-right European People’s Party in the European Parliament. But it also contains smaller parties from different groupings like the Greens.

    The Third Way is a coalition of two parties — Poland 2050, founded by TV host Szymon Hołownia, and the Polish People’s Party (PSL), the country’s oldest political force representing the peasantry. Poland 2050 is part of Renew while PSL is in the EPP. The grouping skews center right, which means it’s likely to clash with the Left on issues like loosening draconian abortion laws.

    The Left is in turn an amalgamation of three small groupings whose leaders have often been at daggers drawn.

    2. There’s a mighty purge coming

    A non-PiS government will have a very difficult time passing legislation as it will not have the three-fifths of parliamentary votes needed to override Duda’s veto; his term ends in 2025.

    The new administration’s first job will be cleaning PiS appointees out of controling positions in government, the media and state-controlled corporations. Poland has a long tradition of governments rewarding loyalists with cushy jobs, but PiS took it to an extreme not seen since communist times.

    Most of those people face dismissal.

    “We will fire all members of supervisory boards and boards of directors. We will conduct new recruitment in transparent competitions, in which competence, not family and party connections, will be decisive,” says the Civic Coalition electoral program.

    “We’ll end the rule of the fat cats in state companies,” says the Left’s program.

    The immediate market reaction was positive, with energy company Orlen up more than 8 percent on the Warsaw Stock Exchange on Monday, and the biggest bank, PKO BP, up over 11 percent.

    Poland’s state media became PiS’s propaganda arm — along with a chain of newspapers bought by state-controlled refiner Orlen — hammering Tusk as the traitorous “Herr Tusk” more loyal to Germany than Poland. Not a lot of people in the media are likely to survive what’s coming, if the new government succeeds in its goal of shutting down the National Media Council — a body stuffed with PiS loyalists that manages public media.

    Poland’s state media became PiS’s propaganda arm, hammering Tusk as the traitorous “Herr Tusk” more loyal to Germany than Poland | Zbignieuw Meissner/EFE via EPA

    But losing a job isn’t the worst of what’s awaiting many.

    3. Go directly to jail

    When Tusk’s party last won power from a short-lived PiS government in 2007, the winners treated their political rivals with kid gloves and hardly anyone was prosecuted. This time the gloves are off.

    In its political program, Civic Coalition promises to prosecute anyone for “breaking the constitution and rule of law.”

    It aims at Duda, Morawiecki, PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński and Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro, Central Bank Governor Adam Glapiński for mismanaging the fight against inflation, and Orlen CEO Daniel Obajtek for heading a controversial buyout that saw the sale of part of a large refinery to foreign interests.

    Expect prosecutors to track down the numerous scandals that have hit PiS over the years — from the government of former Prime Minister Beata Szydło refusing to publish verdicts issued by the Constitutional Tribunal, to Duda refusing to swear in properly elected judges to the tribunal.

    There are also dodgy contracts issued during the panicky early phase of the COVID pandemic, millions spent on a 2020 election by mail that had not been approved by parliament, state companies setting up funds that poured money into PiS-backed projects, a bribes-for-visas scandal, and many more.

    Many people with corporate jobs kicked back part of their salaries to PiS. Additionally, state-controlled companies directed a torrent of advertising money to often niche pro-government newspapers while neglecting larger independent media.

    All of those transactions are likely to be examined and — if found to be against the interests of the corporation and its shareholders — could result in criminal charges.

    The coalition promises to “hold responsible” people “guilty of civil service crimes.”

    4. Reaching out to Brussels

    Tusk is a Brussels animal — he spent five years there as European Council president and was also chief of the European People’s party.

    PiS’s departure marks a sea change with the EU — which spent eight years tangling with Warsaw over radical changes to the judicial system aimed at bringing judges under tighter political control.

    The European Commission moved to end Poland’s voting rights as an EU member under a so-called Article 7 procedure, blocked the payout of €36 billion in loans and grants from the bloc’s pandemic recovery fund, sued Poland at the Court of Justice of the EU, while the European Parliament passed resolutions decrying Warsaw’s backsliding on democratic principles.

    The European Commission moved to end Poland’s voting rights as an EU member under a so-called Article 7 procedure | Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP via Getty Images

    “The day after the election, I will go and unblock the money,” Tusk vowed before the vote.

    Although Tusk said all that’s required is “a little goodwill and competence,” it’s going to be tougher than he’s letting on. The PiS government tried to unlock the money by passing a partial rollback of its judicial reforms, but they’re stuck in the PiS-controlled Constitutional Tribunal. Passing any new law will require Duda’s signature and without that, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen doesn’t have the legal basis to acknowledge that Poland has met the milestones it needs to achieve to get the money.

    “Perhaps the strategy of Tusk will be to try to reopen the negotiation on the milestones and kind of striking a new deal with the European Commission,” said Jakub Jaraczewski, a research coordinator for Democracy Reporting International, a Berlin-based NGO.

    5. Making waves in Europe

    PiS made a lot of enemies — and the new government will try to undo that damage.

    Relations with Berlin have been foul, with Kaczyński pounding the German government for wanting to undermine Polish independence and accusing Berlin of aiming to strike a deal with Moscow “because it is in their economic interest as well as that of their national character: the pursuit of domination at any cost.” Kaczyński and other PiS politicians have also constantly harried Germany for not coming clean about wartime atrocities against Poland.

    Tusk has been careful not to touch that issue for fear of harming his party’s electoral chances, but he’s historically had good relations with Berlin — although Poland, no matter under which government, is a big and often prickly country that’s not an easy partner.

    Tusk blamed PiS for the downturn in relations with Ukraine after the Polish government restricted Ukrainian grain imports not to annoy Polish farmers and to say it would not send more weapons to Kyiv. Tusk called it “stabbing a political knife in Ukraine’s back, while the battles on the frontline are being decided.”

    While Brussels, Berlin and Kyiv will be breathing a sigh of relief at the change of direction in Warsaw, things are likely to be a little more tense in Budapest. Poland and Hungary had a mutual defense pact, blocking the needed unanimity in the European Council to move on the Article 7 procedure.

    Without Kaczyński to protect him, Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán is much more exposed. There are other populists in Europe, like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Robert Fico, who looks likely to take over in Slovakia, but they don’t face Article 7 procedures and their countries have tight relations with the EU — making it difficult to see why they’d risk that to go out on a limb to save Orbán.

    Paola Tamma contributed reporting.

    This article has been updated with the final election results.

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    Jan Cienski

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  • Poles vote in huge numbers for the centrist opposition after 8 years of nationalist rule

    Poles vote in huge numbers for the centrist opposition after 8 years of nationalist rule

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    WARSAW, Poland — The majority of voters in Poland’s general election supported opposition parties that promised to reverse democratic backsliding and repair the nation’s relationship with allies, including the European Union and Ukraine, according to projections Monday.

    After a bitter and emotional campaign, turnout was projected at almost 74%, the highest level in the country’s 34 years of democracy and surpassing the 63% who turned out in the historic 1989 vote that toppled communism. In the city of Wroclaw, the lines were so long that voting continued through the night until nearly 3 a.m. Young voters particularly came out in force to flood polling stations.

    A so-called late exit poll by Ipsos suggested that voters had grown tired of the governing nationalist Law and Justice party after eight years of divisive policies that led to frequent street protests, bitter divisions within families and billions in funding held up by the EU over rule of law violations.

    It was among the important elections in an EU country this year, and the results have been anxiously awaited in Brussels, Berlin and other capitals by observers hoping that a step-by-step dismantling of checks and balances could be halted before Poland could make a turn toward authoritarianism that would be hard to reverse.

    Another term for Law and Justice would have been seen as a bad omen in Brussels, which has to contend with Hungary, where democratic erosion has gone much further under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. New concerns arose after the leftist pro-Russia and Orbán-ally Robert Fico won an election in Slovakia.

    The outcome could also affect ties with neighboring Ukraine, which Poland has supported in the war against Russia’s full-scale invasion. The good relations soured in September over Ukraine grain entering and affecting Poland’s market.

    The Ipsos poll showed that three centrist opposition parties that campaigned on a promise to reverse the illiberal drift of the government had together secured 249 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, or Sejm, a clear majority.

    “I am really overjoyed now,” Magdalena Chmieluk, a 43-year-old accountant, said Monday morning. The opposition “will form a government and we will finally be able to live in a normal country, for real.”

    The opposition parties faced many disadvantages in contesting the election, said Jacek Kucharczyk, president of the Institute of Public Affairs, a Warsaw think tank.

    The governing party mobilized its administrative resources to help itself, including by controlling the election administration and by an unfair division of votes in electoral districts, he said.

    “This success is even more remarkable knowing that the whole playing field was uneven. The electoral system was really tilted toward the government,” Kucharczyk told The Associated Press. “You could say that the opposition had to fight this election with one hand tied behind its back and they still won.”

    Still, Poles on Monday were facing weeks of political uncertainty. Law and Justice won more votes than any single party and said it would try to build a new government led by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

    “No matter how you look at it, we won,” Law and Justice campaign manager Joachim Brudziński said Monday in an interview on RMF FM radio.

    President Andrzej Duda, an ally of Law and Justice, must call the first session of the new parliament within 30 days of the election and designate a prime minister to try to build a government. In the meantime, the current government will remain in a caretaker role.

    The tradition in the democratic era has been for the president to first tap someone from the party with the most votes, but he isn’t required to do so.

    Duda, during a visit to Rome on Monday, wouldn’t comment on the next steps since final results haven’t been announced. He told reporters that he was happy about the large turnout and the peaceful nature of the election at a time of war across the border in Ukraine and “hybrid attacks from Belarus.”

    It wasn’t clear how Law and Justice could realistically hold onto power, unless it managed to win over some lawmakers from opposition parties, something it did in the past to maintain the thin parliamentary majority it held for eight years. But that seemed unlikely given the large number that would need to change allegiances.

    The leader of the agrarian PSL party, a frequent kingmaker in past governments, ruled out cooperating with Law and Justice, known in Poland as PiS, after running with the Third Way coalition.

    “Those who voted for us want change, want a change of government, want PiS removed from power,” Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said on RMF FM.

    An updated Ipsos poll on Monday afternoon showed Law and Justice with 36.1% of the votes cast; the opposition Civic Coalition, led by former European Council President Donald Tusk, with 31%; the centrist Third Way coalition with 14%; the Left party with 8.6%; and the far-right Confederation with 6.8%.

    The electoral commission said it expected to report the final result on Tuesday.

    On Sunday evening, Tusk declared that it was the end of Law and Justice rule and that a new era had begun for Poland.

    But not all rejoiced over the projected outcome.

    “I am disappointed with the results, but I accept the democratic choice,” said Elżbieta Szadura-Urbańska, a 58-year-old psychologist who voted for Law and Justice. “I think my party is also democratic.”

    Others were concerned about possible obstacles to a smooth transfer of power.

    The public television broadcaster, TVP, was reporting on Monday that Law and Justice had won the election.

    Cezary Tomczyk, vice chairman of Tusk’s party, said the governing party would do everything it could to try to maintain power. He called on it to accept the election result, saying it was the will of the people to give power to the opposition.

    “The nation has spoken,” Tomczyk said.

    Even if the opposition parties take power, they will face difficulties in putting forward their agenda. The president will have the power to veto new legislation, while the constitutional court, whose role is to ensure that new laws don’t violate the basic law, is loyal to the current governing party, Kucharczyk said.

    “Fixing the relations with the EU in particular will require domestic changes, namely restoring the independence of the judiciary, restoring the rule of law, which is a condition for the EU to release the funding for Poland,” Kucharczyk said. “It will be a very, very prolonged and difficult process.”

    ___

    Pietro De Cristofaro, Kwiyeon Ha and Rafal Niedzielski in Warsaw, and Raf Casert in Brussels, contributed to this report.

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  • 6 key questions ahead of Poland’s election

    6 key questions ahead of Poland’s election

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    WARSAW — It’s squeaky bum time in the EU’s fifth most populous country.

    After months of bitter campaigning, scandals, gaffes, attacks and just one debate, the political landscape ahead of Sunday’s general election is pretty much where it was a year ago. Two big parties — the ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party and the centrist Civic Coalition — are far ahead and a clutch of smaller parties are straggling far behind.

    It’s a testament to the very deep divisions in Polish society.

    The government’s backers see the opposition as traitorous sell-outs willing to hand Poland off the Germany (or even Russia) and to turn Poland into an irreligious, gay-friendly dystopia subservient to Brussels and filled with Muslim immigrants.

    Opposition backers warn that if Law and Justice wins a third term in office, it will succeed in throttling what’s left of Polish democracy by completing its takeover of the courts, attack independent media and isolate Poland from its partners in the European Union.

    1. What do the polls show?

    POLITICO’s Poll of Polls currently has PiS at 37 percent while the Civic Coalition is at 30 percent.

    Three smaller parties are also likely to make it into the next parliament.

    POLAND NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS

    For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

    The center-right Third Way is at 11 percent and the Left is at 10 percent. Both have pledged to join with Civic Coalition to oust PiS from power.

    Far-right Confederation is at 9 percent — it’s the only possible coalition partner for Law and Justice, even though its leaders say they won’t do that. The two parties have similar nationalist views, but their economic policies are very different.

    2. Why is everyone watching the small parties?

    The rules are that parties need to win 5 percent of the vote to get seats in parliament, but coalitions need 8 percent.

    Third Way — which unites the Poland 2050 party started by TV host Szymon Hołownia and the agrarian Polish People’s Party — faces that hurdle. If it falls short, the remaining parties in parliament will get a boost, and that would likely put PiS very close to a stand-alone majority.

    “How smaller parties will fare is crucial,” said Ben Stanley, an associate professor at the University of Social Sciences and Humanities in Warsaw.

    3. Are the elections free and fair?

    Free maybe, but not very fair.

    The government is boosting social spending, and held country-wide picnics where government officials got to hobnob with voters — all financed by the taxpayer. It is also promising rewards to localities with the highest vote total — a contest that only applies in the smaller towns that tend to be strong PiS backers.

    The state-controlled media is firmly in the government’s camp, despite being obliged by law to be impartial. A chain of newspapers owned by state refiner Orlen is also backing PiS — and papers are even rejecting advertising from opposition parties.

    Finally, the government has put forward a referendum with four questions that are designed to harm the opposition and don’t actually reflect any real policies. The one on migration reads: “Do you support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa, according to the forced relocation mechanism imposed by European bureaucracy?”

    The referendum has no spending limit, so state-owned corporations are pouring vast sums into the campaign. The Polish Post Office even sent leaflets to customers explaining the referendum and helpfully showing a mock ballot marked four times “no” — reflecting the government’s view.

    Finally, the vote count will be supervised by judges appointed by the ruling party.

    As of Friday evening, a grouping of foreign election observers was complaining that they still hadn’t received accreditation from the electoral commission to watch the vote.

    4. What are the mechanics of voting?

    All campaigning ends at midnight Friday and media stop all political reporting.

    Polls open at 7 a.m. for about 29 million registered voters.

    More than 600,000 are registered outside the country — a record. However, a new arbitrary rule limits vote counting in foreign locations to 24 hours; if the count is not finished by then all the ballots in that voting precinct are scrapped. Most foreign voters back the opposition.

    The polls close at 9 p.m. and the media will immediately flash the result of exit polls — which cannot be published while voting continues — which historically have been fairly accurate.

    The vote count begins immediately, and the national electoral commission will announce a running total. By Monday morning there should be a pretty good idea of the official vote winner.

    5. How is a government formed?

    The first move will belong to PiS-allied President Andrzej Duda.

    Polish president Andrzej Duda | Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty images

    In line with Poland’s constitution, the president is free to nominate a prime minister. Duda said traditionally the president chooses a candidate from the overall election winner — which is almost certain to be Law and Justice.

    The newly nominated prime minister then has to win an absolute majority of the 460-member Sejm, the lower house of parliament.

    If the nominee fails, parliament takes over and has 14 days to nominate a new PM candidate who then has to win another confidence vote. 

    If that ends in no government, the ball is back in the president’s court and he has 14 days to pick another nominee. This time the nominee only needs a simple majority in the confidence vote.

    6. What happens if no government is formed?

    Running through the efforts to win a parliamentary majority could take a couple of months. If that fails, Duda cuts short the parliamentary term and calls a new election, which has to take place within 45 days. 

    That means a new election — and another bitter campaign — sometime in the spring of 2024.

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    Wojciech Kosc

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  • Guatemala’s attorney general asks authorities to act against pro-democracy protests

    Guatemala’s attorney general asks authorities to act against pro-democracy protests

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    Guatemala’s attorney general is calling for the government to act against largely peaceful protesters, which have taken to the streets for weeks demanding her resignation for what they say are clear attempts to undermine their nation’s democracy

    Commuters have to walk due to streets being blocked by protesters during a national strike in Guatemala City, early Monday, Oct. 9, 2023. People are protesting to support President-elect Bernardo Arévalo after Guatemala’s highest court upheld a move by prosecutors to suspend his political party over alleged voter registration fraud. (AP Photo/Moises Castillo)

    The Associated Press

    GUATEMALA CITY — Guatemala’s attorney general on Monday called for the government to act against largely peaceful protesters, who have taken to the streets for weeks demanding her resignation for what they say are clear attempts to undermine their nation’s democracy.

    Protests broke out in Guatemala two weeks ago following one of the most tumultuous elections in the country’s recent history. The protests are fueled by accusations that Attorney General Consuelo Porras has tried to prevent President-elect Bernardo Arévalo from taking office in January.

    Since emerging as a political contender earlier this year, Arévalo – a progressive outsider challenging the elite who have long controlled the Central American nation – and his Seed Movement party have faced waves of legal attacks. Those only ramped up when he won the country’s elections in August.

    The attacks have included raids on electoral facilities and the suspension of Arévalo’s political party, effectively handicapping his ability to govern.

    Such moves against the incoming leader prompted Indigenous groups and rural-dwellers – long disenfranchised in Guatemalan society – to call for an indefinite strike, which began with 14 blockades. Now two weeks into protests, the blockades have since expanded to block more than 80 roads throughout the country.

    In a video released Monday morning, Porras described the demonstrations against her as “illegal”, and asked for authorities to forcibly clear the blocked roads and allow for the free circulation of people once again.

    “I want to express my complete disagreement and distaste” of the protests, she said, adding that they “clearly violate the rights of all Guatemalans.”

    Demonstrators have largely been peaceful, but her message comes after a handful of incidents over the weekend. People annoyed by the road blockades drove their cars at protesters and were later arrested for causing material damage and making attempts against the lives of the people protesting.

    Porras and other prosecutors have been sanctioned by the U.S. government and had their entry visas withdrawn, accusing them of obstructing the anti-corruption fight and undermining democracy in the country.

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  • Jimmy Carter turns 99 at home with Rosalynn and other family as tributes come from around the world

    Jimmy Carter turns 99 at home with Rosalynn and other family as tributes come from around the world

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    ATLANTA — Jimmy Carter has always been a man of discipline and habit. But the former president will break routine Sunday, putting off his practice of quietly watching church services online to instead celebrate his 99th birthday with his wife, Rosalynn, and their children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren in Plains.

    The gathering will take place in the same one-story structure where the Carters lived before he was first elected to the Georgia Senate in 1962. It comes amid tributes from around the world. But for Carter’s family, it’s an opportunity to honor a personal legacy.

    “The remarkable piece to me and I think to my family is that while my grandparents have accomplished so much, they have really remained the same sort of South Georgia couple that lives in a 600-person village where they were born,” said grandson Jason Carter, who chairs the board at The Carter Center, which his grandparents founded in 1982 after leaving the White House a year earlier.

    Despite being global figures, the younger Carter said his grandparents have always “made it easy for us, as a family, to be as normal as we can be.”

    Celebrating the longest-lived U.S. president this way was inconceivable not long ago. The Carters announced in February that their patriarch was forgoing further medical treatments and entering home hospice care after a series of hospitalizations. Yet Carter, who overcame cancer diagnosed at age 90 and learned to walk after having his hip replaced at age 94, defied all odds again.

    “If Jimmy Carter were a tree, he’d be an towering, old Southern oak,” said Donna Brazile, a former Democratic national chairperson and presidential campaign manager who got her start on Carter’s campaigns. “He’s as good as they come and tough as they come.”

    Jill Stuckey, a longtime Plains resident who visits the former first couple regularly, cautioned to “never underestimate Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter.”

    His latest resilience has allowed Carter a rare privilege even for presidents: He’s been able to enjoy months of accolades typically reserved for when a former White House resident dies. The latest round includes a flood of messages from world leaders and pop culture figures donning “Jimmy Carter 99” hats, with many of them focusing on Carter’s four decades of global humanitarian work after leaving the Oval Office.

    Katie Couric, the first woman to anchor a U.S. television network’s evening news broadcast, praised Carter in a social media video for his “relentless effort every day to make the world a better place.”

    She pointed to Carter’s work to eradicate Guinea worm disease and river blindness, while advocating for peace and democracy in scores of countries. She noted he has written 32 books and worked for decades with Habitat for Humanity building houses for low-income people.

    “Oh, yeah, and you were governor of Georgia. And did I mention president of the United States?” she joked. “When are you going to stop slacking off?”

    Bill Clinton, the 42nd president and first Democratic president after Carter’s landslide defeat, showed no signs of the chilly relationship the two fellow Southerners once had.

    “Jimmy! Happy birthday,” Clinton said. “You only get to be 99 once. It’s been a long, good ride, and we thank you for your service and your friendship and the enduring embodiment of the American dream.”

    Musician Peter Gabriel led concertgoers at Madison Square Garden in a rendition of “Happy Birthday,” as did the Indigo Girls at a recent concert.

    In Atlanta, the Carter Library & Museum and adjacent The Carter Center was holding a weekend of events, including a naturalization ceremony for 99 new citizens on Sunday. Festivities at the museum, which offered 99-cent admission Saturday, were slated to continue Sunday after Congress came to an agreement to avoid a partial government shutdown at the start of the federal fiscal year, which coincides with Carter’s birthday.

    Jason Carter said his grandfather has found it “gratifying” to see reassessments of his presidency. Carter’s term often has been broad-brushed as a failure because of inflation, global fuel shortages and the holding of American hostages in Iran, a confluence that led to Republican Ronald Reagan’s 1980 romp.

    Yet Carter’s focus on diplomacy, his emphasis on the environment before the climate crisis was widely acknowledged and his focus on efficient government — his presidency added a relative pittance to the national debt — have garnered second looks from historians.

    Indeed, Carter’s longevity offers a frame to illuminate both how much the world has changed over his lifetime while still recognizing that certain political and societal challenges endure.

    The Carter Center’s disease-eradication work occurs mostly in developing countries. But Jimmy and Roslaynn Carter were first exposed to river blindness growing up surrounded by the crushing poverty of the rural Deep South during the Great Depression.

    The Center’s global democracy advocacy has reached countries that were still part of various European empires when Carter was born in 1924 or were under heavy American influence in the decades after World War II. Yet in recent years, Carter has declared his own country to be more of an “oligarchy” than a well-functioning democracy. And the Center has since become involved in monitoring and tracking U.S. elections.

    Carter has lived long enough finally to have a genuine friend in the Oval Office again. President Joe Biden was a young Delaware politician in 1976 and became the first U.S. senator to endorse Carter’s campaign against better-known Washington figures. Now, as Biden seeks reelection in 2024, he faces the headwinds of inflation that Republicans openly compare to Carter’s economy. Biden had a wooden birthday cake display placed on the White House front law to honor Carter.

    The year Carter was born, Congress passed sweeping immigration restrictions, sharply curtailing Ellis Island as a portal to the nation. Now, the naturalization ceremony to mark Carter’s 99th birthday comes as Washington continues a decades-long fight over immigration policy. Republicans, especially, have moved well to the right of Reagan, who in 1986 signed a sweeping amnesty policy for millions of immigrants who were in the country illegally or had no sure legal path to citizenship.

    Carter also was born into Jim Crow segregation, at a time when the Ku Klux Klan marched openly on state capitols and in Washington. As governor and president, Carter set new marks for appointing Black Americans to top government posts. At 99, Carter’s Sunday online church circuit includes watching Georgia’s first Black U.S. senator, the Rev. Raphael Warnock, preach at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta. Yet, at the same time, some white state lawmakers in Carter’s native region are defying the U.S. Supreme Court in an effort to curtail Black voters’ strength at the ballot box.

    Jason Carter said understanding his grandfather’s impact means resisting the urge to assess whether he solved every problem he confronted or won every election. Instead, he said, the takeaway is to recognize a sweeping impact rooted in respecting other people on an individual level and trying to help them.

    “You don’t get more out of a life than he got, right?” the younger Carter said. “It is a incredible, full rich life with a long marriage, a wonderful partnership with my grandmother, and the ability to see the world and interact with the world in ways that almost nobody else has ever been able to do.”

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  • What are the threats facing American democracy?

    What are the threats facing American democracy?

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    What are the threats facing American democracy? – CBS News


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    President Biden issued several stark warnings about threats to American democracy Thursday in Arizona. CBS News election law expert and political contributor David Becker discusses what stood out from the president’s speech.

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  • Germany’s far-right ‘firewall’ cracks

    Germany’s far-right ‘firewall’ cracks

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    BERLIN — The political maneuver shaking Germany’s postwar democratic order involves a piece of legislation that is about as mundane as it gets.

    Center-right legislators in the eastern German state of Thuringia wanted to cut a local property tax by a small amount — and did so with the support of the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD.

    The move broke with years of tradition in which mainstream parties have vowed to maintain a Brandmauer, or firewall, between themselves and the AfD, a party many in a country alert to the legacy of Nazism see as a dire threat to democracy. Even accepting the party’s support, the thinking goes, would legitimize far-right forces or make them salonfähig — socially acceptable.

    And so, when parliamentarians from the conservative Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, passed the tax reduction on a late afternoon in September with AfD votes, it sent tremors across the country’s political landscape that still are reverberating.

    “For me, a taboo has been broken,” Katrin Göring-Eckardt, a leader of the Greens who hails from Thuringia, said after the vote. “It shows me not only that the firewall is gone, but that there is open collaboration.”

    For mainstream parties, and the CDU in particular, the question of how to handle the growing presence of far-right radicals in governing bodies from federal and state parliaments to local councils is likely to grow only more vexing.

    That especially is the case in the states of the former East Germany, where the AfD now leads in polls at around 28 percent. Next year, the eastern states of Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg will all hold parliamentary elections. Polls show the party leading in all three states.

    The AfD is likely to expand its presence in the parliaments of Bavaria and Hesse when those states vote on Sunday. In Hesse, the AfD is coming close to overtaking German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party, according to the latest polls.

    The dilemma facing mainstream parties is clear. To work with the AfD means to normalize a party that many believe seeks to subvert the republic from within. But to ostracize the party only alienates its many voters.

    The firewall also serves as an unintended political gift, allowing the AfD to depict itself — at a time of high dissatisfaction with mainstream parties — as the clear choice for those who want to send a burn-it-down message to the country’s political establishment.

    At the same time, the controversy over the latest vote in Thuringia seems to have played into the AfD’s hands, allowing the party to depict itself as seeking to uphold rather than undermine democracy.

    The “‘firewall’ is history — and Thuringia is just the beginning,” AfD party leader Alice Weidel posted on X, formerly Twitter, after the vote. “It’s time to respond to the democratic will of citizens everywhere in Germany.”

    Historic fears

    Germany’s political leaders are all too aware that the Nazi seizure of power began with democratic electoral success. In fact, it was in Thuringia where, in 1930, the Nazi party first took real governing power in coalition with conservative parties.

    The “‘firewall’ is history — and Thuringia is just the beginning,” AfD party leader Alice Weidel posted on X, formerly Twitter, after the vote. “It’s time to respond to the democratic will of citizens everywhere in Germany” | Christof Stache/AFP via Getty Images

    That fact was not lost on the CDU’s opponents.

    “German conservatism has already been a stirrup holder of fascism,” Janine Wissler, a head of the Left party, told the German Press Agency after the vote. “Back then, too, it started in Thuringia,” she added. “Instead of having learned from that, the CDU is going down a path that’s as dangerous as fire.”

    CDU leaders in Thuringia deny the vote on the tax reduction means the firewall is crumbling. They say there was no cooperation with the AfD ahead of the vote (though AfD members say there were discussions between lawmakers).

    “I cannot make good, important decisions for the state that provide relief for families and the economy dependent on the fact that the wrong people might agree,” Mario Voigt, the head of the CDU in Thuringia said after the vote.

    Friedrich Merz, the national leader of the CDU, has sent mixed signals on the firewall — or at least on what exactly the firewall means. Merz says the CDU will not form coalitions with the AfD but he’s been less clear on whether the CDU will work with the party in other ways.

    In a television interview over the summer, he seemed to suggest working with the AfD on the local level was all but inevitable.

    Friedrich Merz, the national leader of the CDU, has sent mixed signals on the firewall | Tobias Schwarz/AFP via Getty Images

    “We are of course obliged to accept democratic elections,” he said. “And if a district administrator, a mayor is elected there who belongs to the AfD, it’s natural that you look for ways to then continue to work in this city.”

    After an uproar ensued, Merz walked back the comment. “There will be no cooperation between the CDU and the AfD at the municipal level either,” he posted on X, formerly Twitter.

    After the vote in Thuringia, Merz stood by the CDU leadership of the state. “We don’t go by who agrees, we go by what we think is right in the matter,” he said on German television.

    Even some within his own party do not see things that way. Daniel Günther, the CDU premier of the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein, sharply criticized his party colleagues in Thuringia. “As a conservative, I must be able to say plainly and simply the sentence, ‘I do not form majorities with extremists,’” Günther said.

    ‘Cordon sanitaire’

    It’s not the first time Thuringia has been at the center of a controversy over the firewall. In 2020, a little-known politician in the pro-business Free Democratic Party, Thomas Kemmerich, was elected state premier with the support of the CDU and AfD. Then-Chancellor Angela Merkel weighed in to call the vote “unforgivable.”

    In the furor that followed, Kemmerich resigned as did the then-head of the CDU faction in the state. But given the AfD’s large presence in the local parliament, the issue was bound to resurface.

    It’s not the first time Thuringia has been at the center of a controversy over the firewall | Christof Stache/AFP via Getty Images

    The problem is far from Germany’s alone. Mainstream parties are under growing pressure due to the rise of the radical right across Europe.

    In France, parties from across the political spectrum have formed a cordon sanitaire, or sanitary cordon, to keep Marine Le Pen, a leader of the far-right National Rally, out of the presidency. But with Le Pen’s party now the biggest opposition group in the National Assembly, the cordon is getting harder to maintain.

    In the European Parliament, where a similar cordon has been erected, the center-right European People’s Party has been openly courting the European Conservatives and Reformists, home to Poland’s nationalist Law and Justice party and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy party.

    In Thuringia, the stakes are even higher as the local branch of the AfD contains some of the party’s most extreme members. State-level intelligence authorities tasked with surveilling anti-constitutional groups have characterized the party’s local branch as extremist.

    The leader of the AfD in Thuringia is Björn Höcke, who is set to face trial for using banned Nazi rhetoric. (In 2021, he closed a speech with the phrase “Alles für Deutschland!” or “Everything for Germany!” — a slogan used by Nazi stormtroopers.)

    Höcke railed against Holocaust remembrance in Germany and warned of “Volkstod,” the death of the Volk, through “population replacement.” For such views, German courts have ruled that Höcke could justifiably be referred to as a fascist or Nazi.

    GERMANY NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS

    For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

    After the vote on the property tax in Thuringia, Höcke clearly was pleased, claiming the AfD had helped enact a pragmatic policy.

    “It’s simply a good day for Thuringia,” he said.

    Peter Wilke contributed reporting.

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    James Angelos

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  • Poland’s election: Big hopes but no quick fixes

    Poland’s election: Big hopes but no quick fixes

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    WARSAW — The campaign language ahead of this year’s Polish general election is apocalyptic — painting it as an existential battle for the soul of the EU’s fifth most populous country — but the likeliest outcome is a chaotic stalemate.

    If the ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) hangs on to power for a third term there isn’t much more it can do to wreck Poland without quitting the EU — and there’s little prospect of that. If the opposition pulls off a stunner and wins it will be so hemmed in by PiS-controlled courts and institutions and by a hostile president that it won’t be able to do much more than tweak the optics rather than surgically remove the growths added by Law and Justice.

    Internationally, Poland is too important to be kept in the deep freeze forever; with a fast-growing economy, a big military and a key role in supplying Ukraine, it is no Slovakia. A PiS win will mean greater efforts to find some accommodation with Warsaw; an opposition victory will dramatically improve the atmosphere, but there are limits to even an opposition-ruled Poland’s coziness on many issues that are key to the EU.

    An opposition victory could weaken PiS’s institutional advantages that it’s been using to skew the playing field in its favor — potentially leading to a longer-term shift away from the right-wing party that’s dominated Polish politics for the past eight years. But it’s no quick fix.

    None of this is stopping both sides from claiming that the October 15 vote is the most important in decades.

    According to PiS, opposition leader Donald Tusk is a disloyal Pole who is working on behalf of both Germany and Russia to turn the country into a puppet state by letting in hundreds of thousands of migrants.

    Oh, and he also wants to raise the retirement age.

    Jarosław Kaczyński, the PiS chief and Poland’s real ruler, thundered to his supporters on Sunday: “Donald Tusk had to agree to make Poland subservient to Germany and therefore to Russia.”

    “Stop Tusk. Only PiS can ensure Poland’s security,” trumpets an election ad.

    For the opposition, led by Tusk’s Civic Coalition, another four-year term with Law and Justice at the helm means real danger for the future of Poland as a democratic country, as well as undermining the rights of women thanks to a draconian abortion law and an LGBTQ+ minority subjected to attacks by ruling party officials.

    “Law and Justice is poison,” Tusk said at a campaign rally this summer. “Every day, every month they are in power is a growing threat to our security.”

    Those fighting words are designed to budge the electorate; POLITICO’s Poll of Polls shows PiS at 37 percent while Civic Coalition is at 30 percent — meaning any new government is going to require cobbling together a coalition with smaller parties.

    Polish Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the Law and Justice (PiS) ruling party Jarosław Kaczyński has promised that if his party wins, he’ll continue the judicial system changes that have so distressed the EU | Marian Zubrzycki/EPA-EFE

    It’s not all rhetorical spin.

    “There is always a tendency to say this is the most important election since 1989 [the election that ended communist rule], but this time there is a somewhat stronger case for making that argument. The level of polarization is evidence for that,” said Aleks Szczerbiak, a professor of politics at the University of Sussex in the U.K.

    High stakes

    The outcome is going to be watched very closely, from Brussels to Kyiv.

    For the European Union, the hope is that if PiS is ousted Poland will return to the ways of Tusk, who served as Polish prime minister during a remarkable era of comity with the EU and with Germany before going on to become president of the European Council. As an added sweetener, Brussels will likely quickly move to release €36 billion in loans and grants from the bloc’s pandemic recovery fund held up over worries that PiS’s court system reforms undermine judicial independence.

    The EU court cases, parliamentary resolutions, infringement procedures and Article 7 effort to strip Poland of its voting rights would also likely be shelved.

    The German government would also sigh with relief at seeing the back of a government that has fiercely needled Berlin at every occasion and also called for up to $1.3 trillion in compensation for the destruction caused by the Nazi occupation; although the opposition hasn’t cut itself off from that demand. 

    Poland has been one of Ukraine’s fiercest advocates during the war — sending tanks and jet fighters ahead of most other countries, offering diplomatic support, receiving millions of refugees who fled the early days of the war, and serving as the main transshipment point for weapons and other aid heading east.

    But the election campaign has soured that relationship.

    Warsaw led the charge in blocking Ukrainian grain exports, worried it would undercut Polish prices and harm farmers — a key voting bloc. When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dared to criticize Poland at the U.N., a furious President Andrzej Duda compared Ukraine to a drowning man who poses a danger to his rescuers.

    “We say to the Ukrainian authorities — do not do what goes against the interests of Polish farmers,” lectured Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who said last month that Poland would stop sending weapons to Ukraine while it rebuilt its own stocks.

    Poland’s Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau skipped this week’s summit in Kyiv. Getting relations back on an even keel will take “a titanic effort,” he said.

    Tusk promised a reset: “We cannot allow good Polish-Ukrainian relations to depend on the negligence and chaos created by the Polish government.”

    Polish opposition leader and former premier, Donald Tusk addresses participants of a rally in Warsaw on October 1, 2023 | Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images

    A PiS victory will send shock waves across Europe.

    Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán, Kaczyński’s closest ally, has been building his illiberal democracy for over a decade. With Rome governed by right-winger Giorgia Meloni, Slovakian populist Robert Fico scoring a victory in last week’s election, and the far-right Alternative for Germany party rising fast in the polls, the signal is that the right is gaining strength across the Continent.

    That’s likely to further erode the tenuous hold on power of centrist parties in the European Parliament in next year’s election.

    It will also block any chance of agreeing on a migration pact to tackle the thousands of people crossing EU borders and kill any effort to reform EU institutions ahead of an expansion to Balkan countries and Ukraine.

    “A PiS government will block reforms on issues like taxation and foreign policy that threaten the national veto right. There is also a different approach to migration,” warned a senior Polish government official who spoke on condition of being granted anonymity. “We have another model of the European Union.”

    Reality bites

    However, despite the rhetoric, the reality is that the election is unlikely to mean a radical worsening of relations between Warsaw and Brussels.

    Kaczyński has promised that if his party wins he’ll continue the judicial system changes that have so distressed the EU, after admitting that the reforms made so far haven’t worked. He vowed: “This time it will succeed.”

    But his party has already sent out peace feelers to Brussels, trying and so far failing to backtrack on some changes to top courts to get the Commission to release the blocked funds.

    If Law and Justice wins a third term, EU institutions will have to decide whether they want to continue the confrontation, or else make peace with a Poland that has firmly chosen a populist course.

    “It takes two to tango. Maybe there will be a will to compromise on both sides,” said the Polish government official.

    Permanent ostracism is also untenable, as Hungary showed this week by playing a skillful game of getting the EU to release blocked funds to avoid Orbán vetoing aid for Ukraine.

    Despite opposition charges that PiS wants to pull Poland out of the EU in a Polexit — a cry from parts of the far right — Law and Justice says it has no intention of following the U.K. out of the bloc.

    The results of the Polish general election could influence the upcoming European Parliament election and Poland’s presidential election in 2025 | Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images

    “PiS’s direction has always been toward the EU,” said PiS MP Radosław Fogiel.

    And an opposition-led Poland would also be no easy partner for Brussels. After the initial flush of warmth, perennial problems will return like Poland’s continued addiction to coal-fired power, its reluctance to join the euro, and a suspicion of large flows of migrants — also voiced by Tusk during the campaign.

    “Even if there is a change of government, there will still be very strong public opposition to a change in migration policy,” said Jacek Czaputowicz, a former foreign minister under the PiS government, speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum.

    Poland’s large and powerful farming sector will be a huge issue for Ukrainian grain exports and for future efforts to recalibrate the EU to accommodate new and poorer members.

    Ukrainian politicians hope that the war of words with Warsaw will die down after the election.

    “War is exhausting for Ukraine and for Poland too, so emotions are felt on both sides, in addition, the election campaign in Poland, that tends to politicize everything, even economic issues,” said Andriy Deshchytsia, former Ukrainian ambassador to Poland, adding: “However, the Russian threat is still here, just like a year ago … so we don’t have any other choice but to sit and search for a compromise.”

    As bad as it gets

    At home, the election is also unlikely to have the earth-shattering impact that’s being voiced during the campaign.

    PiS has done a lot of damage over the last eight years, and it’s difficult to see how much more it can do while still remaining a member of the EU. The state media is a Euro-lite version of North Korea, state-controlled corporations are stuffed with party hacks, the highest courts are firmly under political control, much of the Roman Catholic Church functions as a PiS acolyte, the police don’t mind clubbing the occasional opposition protester, the prosecutor’s office has become a political plaything — dropping investigations of the well-connected while fiercely pursuing the regime’s opponents.

    But expanding that control will be difficult in an economy that has a large and vibrant private sector, a strong civil society and hefty private media.

    Non-government media operators are owned by foreign companies that have shown no sign of backing out of the Polish market; an earlier effort to tangle with American-owned TVN, the country’s largest private television network, was quickly slapped down by Washington.

    The EU is also working on a rulebook that aims to secure media independence against political pressure and foster pluralism; Commission Vice President Věra Jourová warned it “will be a major warning signal for member states.”

    An opposition win would dramatically change the optics with Brussels, and a new government would scrap further legal changes to courts. But any effort to roll back those reforms, and any other PiS legislation, will run into a significant hurdle: President Duda.

    There is a chance that Poland’s President Andrzej Duda will cooperate, as Tusk has threatened to prosecute him for violating the constitution | Leon Neal/Getty Images

    There is no poll predicting an opposition win so gigantic that it would gain a two-thirds majority of MPs needed to overturn presidential vetoes. The country’s top courts are filled with judges appointed by the current government, meaning legislation will also be caught up in endless litigation.

    “Even if they win an outright majority, which doesn’t look likely at the moment, this is an internally divided opposition and they face a president who will be able to veto their legislation,” said Szczerbiak.

    However, there is a chance that Duda will cooperate, as Tusk has threatened to prosecute him for violating the constitution.

    “Duda is a dealmaker,” said Wawrzyniec Smoczyński, a political analyst and president of the New Community Foundation. “Tusk is a big risk for him and the way to lessen that is to strike a deal.”

    If Duda doesn’t play ball, a non-PiS government could be limited to purging state companies, the government and the media of PiS loyalists.

    “Overnight you will get the public media back. Everyone will be booted out of there,” Tusk pledged.

    Those small steps are unlikely to satisfy opposition backers yearning for revenge against Law and Justice and a clean break with the last eight years.

    “For Poland, it’s all fucked up,” said Paweł Piechowiak, taking part in last week’s massive opposition march in Warsaw while waving huge Polish and EU flags, his cheeks painted in rainbow colors. “You can’t wreck this country any more than it is.”

    But those personnel changes may have longer term consequences by switching public media away from backing PiS, which could undercut that party’s base of support in rural and small-town Poland.

    That could change the political dynamic, especially if the next government is short-lived and there is an early election; it could also influence the upcoming European Parliament election and Poland’s presidential election in 2025.

    “The parliamentary election could be viewed as the first round of a longer campaign,” said Szczerbiak.

    Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting from Kyiv.

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    Jan Cienski

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  • Biden making defending democracy a touchstone in his reelection campaign — and a rejoinder to Trump

    Biden making defending democracy a touchstone in his reelection campaign — and a rejoinder to Trump

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    PHOENIX — On the anniversary of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, President Joe Biden stood in early 2022 at the literal epicenter of the insurrection and accused Donald Trump of continuing to hold a “dagger” at democracy’s throat. Biden closed out the summer that same year in the shadow of Philadelphia’s Independence Hall, decrying Trumpism as a menace to democratic institutions.

    And that November, as voters were casting ballots in the midterm elections, Biden again sounded a clarion call to protect democratic institutions, warning that their underpinnings remained under threat.

    Biden on Thursday will make his fourth in a series of presidential addresses about the state of democracy, a cause that is a key motivator and a touchstone for him as he tries to remain in office even in the face of low approval ratings and widespread concern from voters about his age.

    The location for this speech, as was the case for the others, was deliberately chosen: It will be near Arizona State University, which houses the McCain Institute, named after the late Arizona Sen. John McCain — a friend of Biden and the 2008 Republican presidential nominee who spent his public life denouncing autocrats around the globe.

    Now, as Biden slowly ramps up his reelection campaign, his core focus on democracy is increasingly intertwined with the political dynamics that are confronting him. His likeliest 2024 opponent, former President Donald Trump, continues to spread falsehoods about the results from the 2020 election and is battling unprecedented criminal charges stemming in part from those lies.

    Those challenging Trump for the GOP presidential nomination have largely avoided challenging his election falsehoods and his allies on Capitol Hill are only becoming more emboldened as Trump eggs them on, including toward a looming government shutdown that appears all but inevitable.

    In closed-door fundraisers, Biden has opined at length about his case for reelection, imploring supporters to join his effort to “literally save American democracy,” as he described it to a gaggle of wealthy donors earlier this month in New York.

    “I’m running because we made progress — that’s good — but because our democracy, I think, is still at risk. And I mean it,” Biden said. “I don’t think it’s hyperbole to suggest that. Because our most important freedoms — the freedom to choose, the freedom to vote, the freedom to be — the right to be who you are, to love who you love — is being attacked and shredded today, right now.”

    Advisers see Biden’s continued focus on democracy as not only good policy, but also good politics. Campaign officials have pored over the election results from last November, when candidates who denied the 2020 election results did not fare well in competitive races, and point to polling that showed democracy was a highly motivating issue for voters in 2022.

    Candidates who backed Trump’s election lies and were running for statewide offices with some influence over elections — governor, secretary of state, attorney general — lost their races in every presidential battleground state.

    A senior White House official, granted anonymity to preview Biden’s Thursday remarks, said his Arizona address will highlight the “importance of America’s institutions in preserving our democracy and the need for constant loyalty to the U.S. Constitution.” His appearance at the center that honors McCain will also tie into the theme, with Biden set to urge Americans to “never walk away from the sacrifices generations of Americans have made to defend our democracy.”

    In few states does Biden’s message of democracy resonate more than in Arizona, which became politically competitive during Trump’s presidency after seven decades of GOP dominance and later became a hotbed of efforts to overturn or cast doubt on Biden’s victory there.

    Republican state lawmakers used their subpoena power to get ahold of all the 2020 ballots and vote-counting machines from Maricopa County, then hired Trump supporters to conduct an unprecedented partisan review of the election. The widely mocked spectacleconfirmed Biden’s victory but fueled unfounded conspiracy theories about the election.

    Later, the GOP-controlled board of supervisors in one rural county refused to certify the midterm election results, forcing a judge to intervene. The state has seen an exodus of election workers.

    And last November, voters up and down the ballot rejected Republican candidates who repeatedly denied the results of the 2020 election. Kari Lake, the GOP gubernatorial candidate, has never conceded her loss to now-Gov. Katie Hobbs and is preparing a bid for the U.S. Senate next year. Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters and Mark Finchem, who ran for secretary of state, also repeated fraudulent election claims in their respective campaigns.

    Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., who defeated Masters, appeared at a campaign rally in November alongside former President Barack Obama, who in his remarks framed the race in Arizona as a battle to protect democracy. That message, Kelly now says, not only resonated with members of his own party but independents and moderate GOP voters.

    “I met so many Republicans that were sick and tired of the lies about an election that was two years old,” Kelly said. “They were just done with it, and they did not appreciate folks who were running for high offices just lying about it.”

    Indeed, Republicans privately concede that the election-denialism rhetoric that dominated their candidates’ message — as well as the looming specter of Trump — damaged their efforts to retain the governor’s mansion and flip a hotly contested Senate seat, according to three Republican officials who worked in statewide races last cycle.

    The issue of democracy resonated more in Arizona than in other competitive states, and to have candidates deny basic facts on elections helped reinforce claims from Democrats about GOP extremism on other, completely separate issues, said the Republican officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to candidly describe the party’s shortcomings last year. Though Trump-animated forces in the party dominated public attention, many Republican voters were concerned about other issues such as the economy and the border and did not want to focus on a past election result.

    Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego, who is seeking the Democratic nomination in next year’s Senate race, said a democracy-focused message also is particularly important to two critical blocs of voters in the state: Latinos and veterans, both of whom Gallego said are uniquely affected by election denialism and the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection.

    “You know, we come from countries and experiences where democracy is very corrupt, and many of us are only one generation removed from that, but we’re close enough to see how bad it can be,” Gallego said. “And so Jan. 6 actually was particularly jarring, I think, to Latinos.”

    On Thursday, Biden is set to speak at a performing arts center on the shore of Tempe Town Lake, a once-dry riverbed that has become an oasis for outdoor recreation in the desert. The lake is the centerpiece of the Rio Salado Project, a riverbed revitalization plan that McCain advocated for until his death.

    ___

    Cooper reported from Phoenix.

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  • Heather Cox Richardson: Trump’s Strongman Turn “Happened Really, Really Quickly”

    Heather Cox Richardson: Trump’s Strongman Turn “Happened Really, Really Quickly”

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    In September 2019, Boston College historian Heather Cox Richardson wrote a short essay on her Facebook page after news broke that Donald Trump’s acting director of National Intelligence had withheld an urgent whistleblower complaint. It was the first domino to fall in what would later become a full-fledged impeachment probe into the former president’s now infamous call with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The country was entering unprecedented political territory. And Cox Richardson’s observations left readers hungry for more.

    What grew out of her pithy essay was “Letters From an American,” Cox Richardson’s daily newsletter on politics and US history that made her one of the most widely read commentary writers in the country. Now boasting over a million subscribers on Substack, Cox Richardson was named one of USA Today’s Women of the Year, and last year, was even invited to interview President Joe Biden in the White House.

    But while her public persona has changed, Cox Richardson’s intellectual goals have not. She aims to historicize America’s political absurdities with a fundamental question: Whether, as she wrote recently, “the rule of law on which the United States of America was founded will survive.” This question lies at the heart of her latest tome, Democracy Awakening: Notes on the State of America, which bookends the Trump years with two sweeping, methodical accounts of US history: While one traces attempts to undermine democracy, the other chronicles attempts to protect and expand it. “Once again, we are at a time of testing,” she writes. “How it comes out rests, as it always has, in our own hands.”

    This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

    Vanity Fair: The middle third of your book offers a blow-by-blow account of the Trump years. Reading it, I realized how many specific episodes or scandals I’d already forgotten. Are there any events or moments from Trump’s time in office that you wish were more widely remembered than they are?

    Heather Cox Richardson: The piece that I think shocked me most was how quickly in 2020, after the pandemic really began to sink its claws into society, Trump assumed the language of a strong man, of a dictatorship, and how quickly that escalated until the day he walked across Lafayette Square with the Bible in his hand. If you remember those few days, things were coming at us really quickly. There was that picture of the law enforcement officers at the Lincoln Memorial with their badges covered, and it took us a while to figure out who they even were. All that happened really, really quickly.

    What really jumped out to me was how crucially important it was that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley came out afterward and said it was a real mistake for him to be there at Lafayette Square, and that the military does not stand with a person; it stands with the Constitution. And then there was a whole cascade of military leaders reaffirming that. That was incredibly important. It’s important that we know how close we came. It’s important that we know that the military—all the branches of it, really—stepped forward and said they were not going to be part of this.

    What’s so important about that moment?

    People now tend to forget that after that moment, a number of figures in right-wing media—certainly people like Tucker Carlson—really started going after Mark Milley and trying to destroy him. I think that echoes in the present when you look at Alabama senator Tommy Tuberville’s refusal to allow military promotions. The unwillingness of the military to back Trump is very much in the minds of those who would like to overturn our democracy even today.

    In a similar vein, the last few years have seen many attempts to mine American and even world history for moments that can help us understand both Trump’s presidency and the small-D democratic resistance to it. Are there any historical moments you returned to for the book that you feel are underappreciated as guides to the present?

    The answer is an emphatic yes, and that is the creation and the tactics of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP). What really jumped out at me in this book is no matter where I was digging after 1909, which is when the NAACP officially organizes, I found the NAACP.

    What was fascinating about the NAACP is that they were multifaith, multiracial, and multipolitical, if you will, from the very beginning. And while they certainly challenged segregation through the law, they also recognized very early on that in order to change the law, you had to change public opinion. It’s no accident that W.E.B. Du Bois, who can do anything he wants with the NAACP—what does he decide to do? He decides to run The Crisis, which is the NAACP magazine. They insisted on educating ordinary people, making clear what was really happening.

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    Jack McCordick

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