WASHINGTON, July 13 (Reuters) – The U.S. government posted a $228 billion budget deficit for June, up 156% from a year earlier as revenues continued to weaken and July benefit payments were accelerated into June, the U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday.
The deficit compares to a June 2022 budget gap of $89 billion. June receipts fell $42 billion, or 9% from a year ago, to $418 billion, while June outlays rose $96 billion, or 18%, to $646 billion.
But some $86 billion worth of July benefit payments were made in June because July 1 fell on a weekend, and without these and other calendar adjustments, the June deficit would have been $142 billion — a 66% increase over June 2022.
For the first nine months of the 2023 fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, receipts fell $423 billion, or 11%, from the year-ago period to $3.413 trillion. The decline was primarily driven by lower non-withheld individual income taxes due to lower capital gains in 2022 and lower year-end salary bonuses, as well as sharply higher individual tax refunds as the Internal Revenue Service cleared a backlog of unprocessed receipts.
The Federal Reserve has earned $93 billion less this year because it is paying higher interest on bank reserves and no longer has positive net income – a situation that a Treasury official said was expected to continue.
Year-to-date outlays rose $455 billion, or 10% from a year earlier to $4.805 trillion. Higher outlays for Social Security this year have been driven by cost-of-living adjustments, while the interest on the public debt so far this year has risen $131 billion, or 25%, to $652 billion due to higher interest rates.
Also driving up outlays were $52 billion in Federal Deposit Insurance Corp costs to resolve failing banks, a Treasury official said.
Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Andrea Ricci
WASHINGTON, May 24 (Reuters) – The central pillar of any debt-ceiling agreement between President Joe Biden and House Republican Kevin McCarthy is shaping up to be “discretionary spending” – the chunk of the United States’ roughly $6 trillion annual federal budget that is set annually by Congress.
Talks are fluid as Biden and McCarthy work towards a deal to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and avoid a default as soon as June 1. But cuts to Social Security and Medicare programs that eat up most of the U.S. budget are already off the table.
Instead, funds for programs from education to rail safety to law enforcement could be cut, trims that economists warn will slow U.S. economic growth.
WHAT IS THE US DISCRETIONARY BUDGET?
Congress sets funding levels for discretionary spending every year, which powers a wide swath of military and domestic programs.
In 2022, discretionary spending reached $1.7 trillion, accounting for 27% of the overall $6.27 trillion spent, according to federal figures.
Military spending typically accounts for roughly half of that total, though the amount varies from year to year.
The other half is devoted to domestic programs like law enforcement, transportation, housing and scientific research.
Estimated U.S. government discretionary spending for fiscal year 2023, in billion US dollars
Discretionary spending as a share of U.S. gross domestic product peaked in the late 1970s, and cuts have served as the backbone for several landmark budget deals since the 1980s.
Reuters Graphics
HOW COULD DISCRETIONARY CUTS WORK?
Biden and Democrats have offered to hold discretionary spending flat from the current 2023 fiscal year, a cut from Biden’s 2024 budget, and then cap spending in future years.
House Republicans passed a plan last month that would save $3.2 trillion by capping growth at 1% annually for 10 years.
Republicans say they will not accept a deal unless it results in the government spending less money than it did in the last fiscal year, and are pushing for cuts to 2022 levels.
Both sides are also at odds over how long any spending caps should last, with Republicans now offering caps for six years, and the White House only two.
Negotiators are avoiding the main driver of U.S. debt: rising retirement and health costs, driven by an aging population.
The Social Security pension program is projected to increase by 67% by 2032, and the Medicare health program for seniors will nearly double in cost during that period, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Together, these programs account for roughly 37% of current federal spending.
U.S. spending on health, retirement and other benefit programs has climbed steadily in recent decades, but negotiators in debt-ceiling talks look to cut other domestic and military spending.
MORE BATTLES AHEAD
If they can hammer out a general agreement on these levels and caps, if could help the United States avoid default, but would likely set up another series of budget battles, as lawmakers would still have to agree on funding levels for everything from fighter-plane construction to border enforcement.
Republicans have said they do not want to cut spending on national defense and veterans’ care, which would require other programs to shoulder steeper cuts.
The Republican-led House Appropriations Committee has unveiled legislation that would boost spending on veterans’ care, border security, and other priorities next year.
That would likely require cuts of more than 13% in other areas like scientific research and environmental protection if they want to keep overall spending at the same level as this year, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning think tank.
The Democratic-controlled Senate is not likely to accept those figures – which could lead to a government shutdown if the two sides do not reach agreement by Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year.
POLITICS OF CUTS
While Republicans on the federal level have generally pushed for funding cuts to these discretionary items and Democrats to increase them, Republican-leaning states tend to benefit more from federal domestic spending, according to a Reuters analysis.
“Spending restraint always sounds good in the abstract and sounds less good when you’re talking about specifics,” said Jan Moller, head of the Louisiana Budget Project, a nonpartisan think tank.
Even if Biden and McCarthy agree to spending caps in the years ahead, Congress might not stick to the agreement.
In 2011, Democratic President Barack Obama reached a deal with Republicans to save $1.8 trillion over 10 years through discretionary spending caps. But lawmakers opted to bypass those caps in the years that followed.
In the end, the agreement only saved $1.3 trillion, according to Brian Riedl, a fellow with the conservative Manhattan Institute.
Reporting by Jarret Renshaw and Andy Sullivan; Editing by Heather Timmons and Andrea Ricci
Andy covers politics and policy in Washington. His work has been cited in Supreme Court briefs, political attack ads and at least one Saturday Night Live skit.
Hit finance ministry, president’s office, spy agency and others
Sources believe Beijing was seeking info on debt
NAIROBI, May 24 (Reuters) – Chinese hackers targeted Kenya’s government in a widespread, years-long series of digital intrusions against key ministries and state institutions, according to three sources, cybersecurity research reports and Reuters’ own analysis of technical data related to the hackings.
Two of the sources assessed the hacks to be aimed, at least in part, at gaining information on debt owed to Beijing by the East African nation: Kenya is a strategic link in the Belt and Road Initiative – President Xi Jinping’s plan for a global infrastructure network.
“Further compromises may occur as the requirement for understanding upcoming repayment strategies becomes needed,” a July 2021 research report written by a defence contractor for private clients stated.
China’s foreign ministry said it was “not aware” of any such hacking, while China’s embassy in Britain called the accusations “baseless”, adding that Beijing opposes and combats “cyberattacks and theft in all their forms.”
China’s influence in Africa has grown rapidly over the past two decades. But, like several African nations, Kenya’s finances are being strained by the growing cost of servicing external debt – much of it owed to China.
The hacking campaign demonstrates China’s willingness to leverage its espionage capabilities to monitor and protect economic and strategic interests abroad, two of the sources said.
The hacks constitute a three-year campaign that targeted eight of Kenya’s ministries and government departments, including the presidential office, according to an intelligence analyst in the region. The analyst also shared with Reuters research documents that included the timeline of attacks, the targets, and provided some technical data relating to the compromise of a server used exclusively by Kenya’s main spy agency.
A Kenyan cybersecurity expert described similar hacking activity against the foreign and finance ministries. All three of the sources asked not to be named due to the sensitive nature of their work.
“Your allegation of hacking attempts by Chinese Government entities is not unique,” Kenya’s presidential office said, adding the government had been targeted by “frequent infiltration attempts” from Chinese, American and European hackers.
“As far as we are concerned, none of the attempts were successful,” it said.
It did not provide further details nor respond to follow-up questions.
A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Britain said China is against “irresponsible moves that use topics like cybersecurity to sow discord in the relations between China and other developing countries”.
“China attaches great importance to Africa’s debt issue and works intensively to help Africa cope with it,” the spokesperson added.
THE HACKS
Between 2000 and 2020, China committed nearly $160 billion in loans to African countries, according to a comprehensive database on Chinese lending hosted by Boston University, much of it for large-scale infrastructure projects.
Kenya used over $9 billion in Chinese loans to fund an aggressive push to build or upgrade railways, ports and highways.
Beijing became the country’s largest bilateral creditor and gained a firm foothold in the most important East African consumer market and a vital logistical hub on Africa’s Indian Ocean coast.
By late 2019, however, when the Kenyan cybersecurity expert told Reuters he was brought in by Kenyan authorities to assess a hack of a government-wide network, Chinese lending was drying up. And Kenya’s financial strains were showing.
The breach reviewed by the Kenyan cybersecurity expert and attributed to China began with a “spearphishing” attack at the end of that same year, when a Kenyan government employee unknowingly downloaded an infected document, allowing hackers to infiltrate the network and access other agencies.
“A lot of documents from the ministry of foreign affairs were stolen and from the finance department as well. The attacks appeared focused on the debt situation,” the Kenyan cybersecurity expert said.
Another source – the intelligence analyst working in the region – said Chinese hackers carried out a far-reaching campaign against Kenya that began in late 2019 and continued until at least 2022.
According to documents provided by the analyst, Chinese cyber spies subjected the office of Kenya’s president, its defence, information, health, land and interior ministries, its counter-terrorism centre and other institutions to persistent and prolonged hacking activity.
The affected government departments did not respond to requests for comment, declined to be interviewed or were unreachable.
By 2021, global economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic had already helped push one major Chinese borrower – Zambia – to default on its external debt. Kenya managed to secure a temporary debt repayment moratorium from China.
In early July 2021, the cybersecurity research reports shared by the intelligence analyst in the region detailed how the hackers secretly accessed an email server used by Kenya’s National Intelligence Service (NIS).
Reuters was able to confirm that the victim’s IP address belonged to the NIS. The incident was also covered in a report from the private defence contractor reviewed by Reuters.
Reuters could not determine what information was taken during the hacks or conclusively establish the motive for the attacks. But the defence contractor’s report said the NIS breach was possibly aimed at gleaning information on how Kenya planned to manage its debt payments.
“Kenya is currently feeling the pressure of these debt burdens…as many of the projects financed by Chinese loans are not generating enough income to pay for themselves yet,” the report stated.
A Reuters review of internet logs delineating the Chinese digital espionage activity showed that a server controlled by the Chinese hackers also accessed a shared Kenyan government webmail service more recently from December 2022 until February this year.
Chinese officials declined to comment on this recent breach, and the Kenyan authorities did not respond to a question about it.
‘BACKDOOR DIPLOMACY’
The defence contractor, pointing to identical tools and techniques used in other hacking campaigns, identified a Chinese state-linked hacking team as having carried out the attack on Kenya’s intelligence agency.
The group is known as “BackdoorDiplomacy” in the cybersecurity research community, because of its record of trying to further the objectives of Chinese diplomatic strategy.
According to Slovakia-based cybersecurity firm ESET, BackdoorDiplomacy re-uses malicious software against its victims to gain access to their networks, making it possible to track their activities.
Provided by Reuters with the IP address of the NIS hackers, Palo Alto Networks, a U.S. cybersecurity firm that tracks BackdoorDiplomacy’s activities, confirmed that it belongs to the group, adding that its prior analysis shows the group is sponsored by the Chinese state.
Cybersecurity researchers have documented BackdoorDiplomacy hacks targeting governments and institutions in a number of countries in Asia and Europe.
Incursions into the Middle East and Africa appear less common, making the focus and scale of its hacking activities in Kenya particularly noteworthy, the defence contractor’s report said.
“This angle is clearly a priority for the group.”
China’s embassy in Britain rejected any involvement in the Kenya hackings, and did not directly address questions about the government’s relationship with BackdoorDiplomacy.
“China is a main victim of cyber theft and attacks and a staunch defender of cybersecurity,” a spokesperson said.
Reporting by Aaron Ross in Nairobi, James Pearson in London and Christopher Bing in Washington
Additional reporting by Eduardo Baptista in Beijing
Editing by Chris Sanders and Joe Bavier
West & Central Africa correspondent investigating human rights abuses, conflict and corruption as well as regional commodities production, epidemic diseases and the environment, previously based in Kinshasa, Abidjan and Cairo.
Reports on hacks, leaks and digital espionage in Europe. Ten years at Reuters with previous postings in Hanoi as Bureau Chief and Seoul as Korea Correspondent. Author of ‘North Korea Confidential’, a book about daily life in North Korea. Contact: 447927347451
Award-winning reporter covering the intersection between technology and national security with a focus on how the evolving cybersecurity landscape affects government and business.
WASHINGTON, May 13 (Reuters) – President Joe Biden said on Saturday that talks with Congress on raising the U.S. government’s debt limit were moving along and more will be known about their progress in the next two days.
“I think they are moving along, hard to tell. We have not reached the crunch point yet,” Biden told reporters at Joint Base Andrews.
“We’ll know more in the next two days,” he said.
Biden is expected to meet with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders early next week to resume negotiations.
The leaders had canceled a planned meeting on Friday to let staff continue discussions.
Aides for Biden and McCarthy have started to discuss ways to limit federal spending as talks on raising the government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling to avoid a catastrophic default creep forward, Reuters has reported.
The Treasury Department says it could run out of money by June 1 unless lawmakers lift the nation’s debt ceiling.
Reporting by Jeff Mason; Writing by Eric Beech; Editing by David Gregorio
LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) – The latest bid by the world’s leading institutions and creditors to speed up debt restructurings and get bankrupt countries back on their feet has been greeted by a mix of cautious optimism and weary scepticism by veteran crisis watchers.
Standoffs between major Western-backed lenders like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the world’s top bilateral creditor, China, have been blamed for keeping countries such as Zambia mired in default for nearly three years.
The somewhat loose framework around sovereign restructurings has seen Beijing seek to influence the traditional rules of engagement in these processes.
The renewed push to overcome the logjams came after a “roundtable” at the IMF Spring Meetings and included pledges from the Fund and World Bank to share assessments of countries’ troubles more quickly, provide more low-interest and grant funding and stricter timeframes on restructurings overall.
The idea is that Beijing would then drop its insistence that the multilateral lenders take losses, or “haircuts”, on the loans they have provided or underwritten in crisis-hit countries.
Beijing has not commented directly on the demand for multilateral lender haircuts, but in remarks published on Friday People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang reiterated China’s willingness to implement debt talks under the Common Framework, the platform introduced by leading G20 nations in 2020 to streamline talks with all creditors.
“If the multilateral development banks are now making real commitments to provide fresh grants to distressed countries this is a breakthrough,” said Kevin Gallagher, director of the Boston University Global Development Policy Center.
But he added that as the new plans lacked specific mention of China’s intentions it suggested the “lack of a strong and clear consensus” in Washington.
The IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva has stressed that with around 15% of low income countries already in debt distress and dozens more in danger of falling into it, far more urgency is needed.
Besides members of the Paris Club of creditor nations such as the United States, France and Japan, cash-strapped nations now have to rework loans with lenders such as India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Kuwait – but first and foremost China.
Beijing is now the largest bilateral creditor to developing nations, extending $138 billion in new loans between 2010 and 2021, according to World Bank data, and some estimates put total lending at almost $850 billion.
Reuters Graphics
HEADWINDS
Global headwinds are about to get stronger too.
Financially weaker countries with “junk”-grade sovereign credit ratings need to repay or refinance $30 billion worth of government bonds next year between them, compared to just $8.4 billion for the remainder of this one.
The rise in global borrowing costs, though, means that many countries under the greatest stress are now unable to borrow in the international capital markets or, if they can, only at unsustainably high interest rates.
The Chinese debt, meanwhile, is often opaque and muddied by arguments about whether the loans have been given by “official” entities – i.e by the government – or by “private” entities.
Authorities in Beijing also prefer to roll over debt payments rather than write them off, and given it is an increasingly dominant creditor, it has little incentive to follow co-operative Paris Club-like principles.
“It would be great to have China on board (with the push to speed up restructurings) but I don’t really have high hopes because there is a lot of geopolitics involved,” said Viktor Szabo, an emerging market debt manager at Abrdn in London.
Select IMF loans to low and middle income countries by date of Board approval
COMMON PROBLEMS
Recent research by Boston University estimated that up to $520 billion in debt needs to be written off to help developing nations at greatest risk of default return to a sounder fiscal footing.
But lengthy delays in Zambia, and more recently in Sri Lanka, have elicited widespread criticism of the Common Framework.
Wednesday’s promises by the IMF to provide its assessments more quickly was an admission that the Common Framework was currently failing, Szabo added.
“You have to make it functional. The fact that it’s been in place for three years and there is nothing to really show for it, that is really appalling.”
Anna Ashton, director of China research at Eurasia Group, said this week’s developments underscored the benefits for China to give some ground on some of its concerns.
“Being willing to compromise and facilitate debt restructuring right now is likely crucial to China’s continued credibility with the developing world writ large,” Ashton said.
Patrick Curran, senior economist with Tellimer, added that China dropping demands for the big multilateral development banks (MDBs) to swallow losses on their loans could also be “a major breakthrough”.
“There is likely to be broad support for the alternative proposal that MDBs mobilize their resources more aggressively, especially at a time when most low-income countries are locked out of the market,” Curran said.
Germany’s finance minister Christian Lindner on Thursday too said all the talk now needed to be converted into action.
The group that took part in Wednesday’s roundtable plans to meet again in coming weeks to address remaining issues, including how various creditors are treated, principles for cut-off dates and suspending debt payments.
Ultimately, whether the new terms help Zambia, and countries like Sri Lanka, Ghana and Ethiopia that are also in the midst of bailout talks, finalise deals will be the only proof of whether the new terms work.
“China is a difficult partner to talk to but we need China at the table for the solution of debt problems, because otherwise we won’t see any progress,” Lindner said.
Reuters Graphics
Additional reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York and Joe Cash in Beijing
Editing by Mark Potter
RIYADH, March 15 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan said on Wednesday that Saudi investments into Iran could happen “very quickly” following an agreement to restore diplomatic ties.
“There are a lot of opportunities for Saudi investments in Iran. We don’t see impediments as long as the terms of any agreement would be respected,” Al-Jadaan said during the Financial Sector Conference in Riyadh.
Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed on Friday to re-establish relations and re-open embassies within two months after years of hostility, following talks in China.
“Stability in the region is very important, for the world and for the countries in the region, and we have always said that Iran is our neighbour and we have no interest to have a conflict with our neighbours, if they are willing to cooperate,” Al-Jadaan later told Reuters in an interview.
The hostility between the two Middle Eastern powers had endangered the stability and security of the Middle East and helped fuel regional conflicts including in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.
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“We have no reason not to invest in Iran, and we have no reason not to allow them to invest in Saudi Arabia. It is in our interest to make sure that both nations benefit from each others resources and competitive advantage,” Al-Jadaan told Reuters.
“If they (Iran) are willing to go through this process, then we are more than willing to go through this process and show them they are welcome and we would be more than happy to participate in their development,” he said.
CHINESE LEVERAGE
The deal, brokered by China, was announced after four days of previously undisclosed talks in Beijing between top security officials from Saudi Arabia and Iran.
China has leverage on Iran and Tehran will find it difficult to explain if it does not honour the agreement signed with Saudi Arabia in Beijing, another Saudi official told reporters, separately, on Wednesday.
The official, who declined to be named, said China is in a unique position as it enjoys exceptional relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia.
“China is the first trading partner for both countries so the leverage is very important in that regard. And since we are building confidence, that commitment should be made with the presence of Chinese officials,” he said.
Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran in 2016 after its embassy in Tehran was stormed during a dispute between the two countries over Riyadh’s execution of a prominent Shi’ite Muslim cleric.
The kingdom also has blamed Iran for missile and drone attacks on its oil facilities in 2019 as well as attacks on tankers in Gulf waters. Iran denied the charges.
The most difficult topics in the talks with Iran were related to Yemen, the media, and China’s role, the official said without elaborating.
Both sides have agreed to re-activate a 2001 security agreement, which covers cooperation in fighting drugs, smuggling and organised crime, as well as another earlier pact on trade, economy and investment.
“Resuming diplomatic relations does not mean we are allies… Diplomatic relations are the norm for Saudi Arabia, and we should have them with everybody,” the official said.
Additional reporting by Aziz El Yaakoubi; Writing by Clauda Tanios and Hadeel Al Sayegh; Editing by Christopher Cushing, Jon Boyle and Andrea Ricci
BERLIN/LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) – A Russian scheme to grant loan payment holidays to troops fighting in Ukraine, and for banks to write off the entire debt if they are killed or maimed, has added to growing pressure for the remaining overseas lenders in Russia to leave.
Almost a year since Moscow launched what it calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine, a handful of European banks, including Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International (RBIV.VI) and Italy’s UniCredit (CRDI.MI), are still making money in Russia.
The loan relief scheme has not only triggered criticism from Ukraine’s central bank, which said it had appealed to Raiffeisen and other banks to stop doing business in Russia, but also from investors concerned about any reputational impact.
Raiffeisen and UniCredit are both deeply embedded in the Russian financial system and are the only foreign banks on the central bank’s list of 13 “systemically important credit institutions”, underscoring their importance to Russia’s economy, which is grappling with sweeping Western sanctions.
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Their role in supporting the Russian economy at a critical time for President Vladimir Putin has prompted some investors to go public with their misgivings.
“Companies should be very careful,” said Kiran Aziz, of Norwegian pension fund KLP, cautioning of a major risk that the banks could be used to “in other ways finance the war”. KLP funds hold shares in both Raiffeisen and UniCredit.
At the time the payment holiday law was going through parliament in September, Vyacheslav Volodin, the influential speaker of the lower house, made clear its importance to Russia.
“Soldiers and officers ensure the security of our country and we must be sure that they will be taken care of,” he said.
Eric Christian Pederson of Nordea Asset Management, which has more than 300 billion euros ($320 billion) under management, said he too was concerned about Raiffeisen and UniCredit’s Russian presence and had raised this with them.
The requirement that the banks grant payment holidays to soldiers “illustrates the dangers of operating in jurisdictions where companies can … be forced into actions that go directly against their corporate values,” he added.
“We feel that it is right for companies to withdraw from Russia, given its unprovoked attack on Ukraine,” said Pederson. Refinitiv data shows Nordea owns shares in UniCredit.
Banks restructured a total of 167,600 loans for military personnel or their family members, worth more than 800 million euros, between Sept. 21 and the end of last year, Russian central bank data shows.
Raiffeisen said that only 0.2% of its Russian loans are affected by the “government-imposed loan moratorium”, a sum it described as “negligible”. The bank has a total of almost 9 billion euros of loans in Russia, where it has been for more than 25 years, including to companies.
It made a net profit of roughly 3.8 billion euros last year, thanks in large part to a 2 billion euro plus profit from its Russia business.
UniCredit, which entered the Russian market almost 20 years ago when it acquired an Austrian bank, said that the rule was “mandatory under the federal law … for all banks”, declining to say how many of its loans had been forgiven.
The Italian bank added that its business in Russia was focused on companies rather than individuals. Of UniCredit’s more than 20 billion euro total revenue last year, Russia accounted for more than 1 billion euros.
But despite an initial sharp fall, UniCredit’s shares are now significantly higher than before Russia moved its troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year, while Raiffeisen’s, with a more limited free float, have not recovered.
“Any profiteering on the ongoing war is not acceptable or aligned with our view of responsible investments,” said a spokesperson for Swedbank Robur, one of Scandinavia’s top investors, adding that reputational risk was a worry.
Swedbank Robur said it has stakes in both banks, but did not disclose figures.
Larger institutional investors, including France’s Amundi and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, which advocates responsible investing, declined to comment when asked for their views.
WINDOW CLOSING?
Some foreign banks have made relatively quick exits.
France’s Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) severed its Russia ties in May by selling Rosbank (ROSB.MM) to businessman Vladimir Potanin’s Interros Group.
But the continued presence of two of Europe’s biggest banks is attracting the attention of regulators at the European Central Bank (ECB), one person familiar with the matter said.
Andrea Enria, the ECB’s chief supervisor, said the window to quit was “closing a bit” because Russian authorities were taking a more “hostile” approach. But he also voiced support for any bank wanting to reduce their business there or leave.
Raiffeisen and UniCredit confirmed they were in discussions about Russia with the ECB.
UniCredit said it kept the ECB “fully and regularly up to date on our strategy of orderly de-risking our exposure to Russia”.
But with money still to be made, Raiffeisen saw profit from its business in Russia more than triple last year.
Meanwhile, Russian savers lodged more than 20 billion euros with the bank, which offers a place to deposit funds with fewer sanctions risks.
This means there is no great impetus for banks to leave Russia, despite regulatory pressure.
And in Austria, which has close historical and economic ties to eastern Europe and Russia, politicians are largely silent on Raiffeisen’s continuing Russian presence, which in recent months prompted protests outside its headquarters.
Johann Strobl, Raiffeisen’s CEO, has said he is examining options for the Russian business, although points out that any move is complicated, having earlier said that the bank is not “a sausage stand” that could be closed overnight.
For some the question is more about morality than money.
Heinrich Schaller, head of RBI’s third largest shareholder Raiffeisenlandesbank Oberoesterreich and deputy chairman of Raiffeisen, is among those to have aired doubts about staying.
“Of course it is a question of morals,” he said recently. “No doubt about it.”
Whatever shareholders may say, a decree by Putin is likely to make getting out of Russia difficult. It banned investors from so-called unfriendly countries from selling shares in banks, unless the Russian President grants an exemption.
($1 = 0.9376 euros)
Additional reporting by Alexandra Schwarz-Goerlich in Vienna and Tom Sims in Frankfurt; Writing by John O’Donnell; Editing by Alexander Smith
Feb 13 (Reuters) – India’s Adani Group has halved its revenue growth target and plans to scale down fresh capital expenditure, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday.
Listed companies controlled by billionaire Gautam Adani have lost more than $100 billion in market value since Jan. 24, when U.S. short-seller Hindenburg Research accused the conglomerate of stock manipulation and improper use of offshore tax havens.
The group has rejected the allegations and denied any wrongdoing.
The Adani Group will now shoot for revenue growth of 15% to 20% for at least the next financial year, down from the original target of 40%, Bloomberg News said citing people familiar with the matter.
Holding back on investments for even as little as three months could save the conglomerate as much as $3 billion, the report said, adding that the plans are still imminent.
A spokesperson for the Adani Group said the report was “baseless, speculative”, without elaborating further.
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The group has also been a part of India’s market regulator’s investigation into its links to some of the investors in its scrapped $2.5 billion share sale.
Earlier this month, India’s ministry of corporate affairs started a preliminary review of the group’s financial statements and other regulatory submissions made over the years, Reuters reported, citing two senior government officials.
Reporting by Mrinmay Dey in Bengaluru; Editing by Kim Coghill and Savio D’Souza
Market rout deepens in Indian tycoon Adani’s shares
Adani Enterprises loses $26 bln in value since report
Falls after Adani pulled share sale, investors spooked
Analysts say signals confidence crisis in Indian market
NEW DELHI/MUMBAI, Feb 2 (Reuters) – Adani’s market losses swelled above $100 billion on Thursday, sparking worries about a potential systemic impact a day after the Indian group’s flagship firm abandoned its $2.5 billion stock offering.
Another challenge for Adani on Thursday came when S&P Dow Jones Indices said it would remove Adani Enterprises from widely used sustainability indices, effective Feb. 7, which would make the shares less appealing to sustainability-minded funds.
In addition, India’s National Stock Exchange said it has placed on additional surveillance shares of Adani Enterprises <ADEL.NS>, Adani Ports <APSE.NS> and Ambuja Cements <ABUJ.NS>. read more
However, Adani Group Chairman Gautam Adani is in talks with lenders to prepay and release pledged shares as he seeks to restore confidence in the financial health of his conglomerate, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday. read more
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The shock withdrawal of Adani Enterprises’ share sale marks a dramatic setback for founder Adani, the school dropout-turned-billionaire whose fortunes rose rapidly in recent years but have plunged in just a week after a critical research report by U.S.-based short-seller Hindenburg Research.
Aborting the share sale sent shockwaves across markets, politics and business. Adani stocks plunged, opposition lawmakers called for a wider probe and India’s central bank sprang into action to check on the exposure of banks to the group. Meanwhile, Citigroup’s (C.N) wealth unit stopped making margin loans to clients against Adani Group securities.
The crisis marks an dramatic turn of fortune for Adani, who has in recent years forged partnerships with foreign giants such as France’s TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) and attracted investors such as Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company as he pursues a global expansion stretching from ports to the power sector.
In a shock move late on Wednesday, Adani called off the share sale as a stocks rout sparked by Hindenburg’s criticisms intensified, despite it being fully subscribed a day earlier.
“Adani may have started a confidence crisis in Indian shares and that could have broader market implications,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank.
Adani Enterprises shares tumbled 27% on Thursday, closing at their lowest level since March 2022.
Other group companies also lost further ground, with 10% losses at Adani Total Gas (ADAG.NS), Adani Green Energy (ADNA.NS) and Adani Transmission (ADAI.NS), while Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone shed nearly 7%.
Since Hindenburg’s report on Jan. 24, group companies have lost nearly half their combined market value. Adani Enterprises – described as an incubator of Adani’s businesses – has lost $26 billion in market capitalisation.
Adani is also no longer Asia’s richest person, having slid to 16th in the Forbes rankings of the world’s wealthiest people, with his net worth almost halved to $64.6 billion in a week.
The 60-year-old had been third on the list, behind billionaires Elon Musk and Bernard Arnault.
His rival Mukesh Ambani of Reliance Industries (RELI.NS) is now Asia’s richest person.
[1/4] Indian billionaire Gautam Adani addresses delegates during the Bengal Global Business Summit in Kolkata, India April 20, 2022. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri
Reuters Graphics
BROADER CONCERNS
Adani’s plummeting stock and bond prices have raised concerns about the likelihood of a wider impact on India’s financial system.
India’s central bank has asked local banks for details of their exposure to the Adani Group, government and banking sources told Reuters on Thursday.
CLSA estimates that Indian banks were exposed to about 40% of the $24.5 billion of Adani Group debt in the fiscal year to March 2022.
Dollar bonds issued by entities of Adani Group extended losses on Thursday, with notes of Adani Green Energy crashing to a record low. Adani Group entities made scheduled coupon payments on outstanding U.S. dollar-denominated bonds on Thursday, Reuters reported citing sources.
“We see the market is losing confidence on how to gauge where the bottom can be and although there will be short-covering rebounds, we expect more fundamental downside risks given more private banks (are) likely to cut or reduce margin,” said Monica Hsiao, chief investment officer of Hong Kong-based credit fund Triada Capital.
In New Delhi, opposition lawmakers submitted notices in parliament demanding discussion of the short-seller’s report.
The Congress Party called for a Joint Parliamentary Committee be set up or a Supreme Court monitored investigation, while some lawmakers shouted anti-Adani slogans inside parliament, which was adjourned for the day.
ADANI VS HINDENBURG
Adani made acquisitions worth $13.8 billion in 2022, Dealogic data showed, its highest ever and more than double the previous year.
The cancelled fundraising was critical for Adani, which had said it would use $1.33 billion to fund green hydrogen projects, airports facilities and greenfield expressways, and $508 million to repay debt at some units.
Hindenburg’s report alleged an improper use of offshore tax havens and stock manipulation by the Adani Group. It also raised concerns about high debt and the valuations of seven listed Adani companies.
The Adani Group has denied the accusations, saying the allegation of stock manipulation had “no basis” and stemmed from an ignorance of Indian law. It said it has always made the necessary regulatory disclosures.
Adani had managed to secure share sale subscriptions on Tuesday even though the stock’s market price was below the issue’s offer price. Maybank Securities and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority had bid for the anchor portion of the issue, investments which will now be reimbursed by Adani.
Late on Wednesday, the group’s founder said he was withdrawing the sale given the share price fall, adding his board felt going ahead with it “will not be morally correct”.
Reporting by Chris Thomas, Nallur Sethuraman, Tanvi Mehta, Ira Dugal, Aftab Ahmed, Sumeet Chatterjee, Anshuman Daga, Summer Zhen, Ross Kerber and Bansari Mayur Kamdar; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Jason Neely and Alexander Smith
TORONTO, Dec 4 (Reuters) – As the Bank of Canada considers ditching oversized interest rate hikes, it is dealing with an economy likely more overheated than previously thought but also the bond market’s clearest signal yet that recession and lower inflation lie ahead.
Canada’s central bank says that the economy needs to slow from overheated levels in order to ease inflation. If its tightening campaign overshoots to achieve that objective it could trigger a deeper downturn than expected.
The bond market could be flagging that risk. The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond has fallen nearly 100 basis points below the 2-year yield, marking the biggest inversion of Canada’s yield curve in Refinitiv data going back to 1994 and deeper than the U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion.
Some analysts see curve inversions as predictors of recessions. Canada’s economy is likely to be particularly sensitive to higher rates after Canadians borrowed heavily during the COVID-19 pandemic to participate in a red-hot housing market.
“Markets think the Canadian economy is about to suffer a triple blow as domestic consumption collapses, U.S. demand weakens and global commodity prices drop,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay.
The BoC has opened the door to slowing the pace of rate increases to a quarter of a percentage point following multiple oversized hikes in recent months that lifted the benchmark rate to 3.75%, its highest since 2008.
Money markets are betting on a 25-basis-point increase when the bank meets to set policy on Wednesday, but a slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll expect a larger move.
RESILIENT ECONOMY
Canada’s employment report for November showed that the labour market remains tight, while gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the third quarter.
That’s much stronger than the 1.5% pace forecast by the BoC and together with upward revisions to historical growth could indicate that demand has moved further ahead of supply, economists say.
But they also say that the details of the third-quarter GDP data, including a contraction in domestic demand, and a preliminary report showing no growth in October are signs that higher borrowing costs have begun to impact activity.
The BoC has forecast that growth would stall from the fourth quarter of this year through the middle of 2023.
The depth of Canada’s curve inversion is signaling a “bad recession” not a mild one, said David Rosenberg, chief economist & strategist at Rosenberg Research.
It reflects greater risk to the outlook in Canada than the United States due to “a more inflated residential real estate market and consumer debt bubble,” Rosenberg said.
Inflation is likely to be more persistent after it spread from goods prices to services and wages, where higher costs can become more entrenched. Still, 3-month measures of underlying inflation that are closely watched by the BoC – CPI-median and CPI-trim – show price pressures easing.
They fell to an average of 2.75% in October, according to estimates by Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics. That’s well below more commonly used 12-month rates.
“The yield curve would not invert to this extent unless investors also believed that inflation will drop back down toward the Bank’s target,” said Brown.
Like the Federal Reserve, the BoC has a 2% target for inflation.
“The curve is telling us the Bank of Canada will be forced into a reversal by late 2023, with rates remaining depressed for years to come,” Corpay’s Schamotta said.
Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Andrea Ricci
Nov 4 (Reuters) – U.S. Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett on Friday again declined to block President Joe Biden’s plan to cancel billions of dollars in student debt, this time in a challenge brought by two Indiana borrowers, even as a lower court considers whether to lift a freeze it imposed on the program in a different case.
Barrett denied an emergency request by the Indiana borrowers, represented by a conservative legal group, to bar the U.S. Department of Education from implementing the Democratic president’s plan to forgive debt held by qualified people who had taken loans to pay for college.
Barrett on Oct. 20 denied a similar request by a Wisconsin taxpayers organization represented by another conservative legal group. The justice acted in the cases because she is the justice assigned to handle certain emergency requests from a group of states that includes Indiana and Wisconsin.
The St. Louis-based 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Oct. 21 put the policy on hold in yet another conservative challenge by six Republican-led states while it considered their request for injunction pending their appeal of their case’s dismissal. That request remains pending.
Biden’s plan, unveiled in August, was designed to forgive up to $10,000 in student loan debt for borrowers making less than $125,000 per year, or $250,000 for married couples. Borrowers who received Pell Grants to benefit lower-income college students would have up to $20,000 of their debt canceled.
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office in September calculated that debt forgiveness would eliminate about $430 billion of the $1.6 trillion in outstanding student debt and that more than 40 million Americans would be eligible to benefit.
The policy fulfilled a promise Biden made during the 2020 presidential campaign to help debt-saddled former college students. Democrats hope the policy will boost support for them in Tuesday’s midterm elections in which control of Congress is at stake.
Friday’s case was filed by two borrowers, Frank Garrison and Noel Johnson, represented by the conservative Pacific Legal Foundation, and claimed they would be irreparably harmed if some of their student loans were automatically forgiven because they would face increased state tax liabilities.
Soon after they sued, the Department of Education created an opt-out option for borrowers. U.S. District Judge Richard Young on Oct. 21 dismissed the case, finding that the debt forgiveness program did not injure Garrison and Johnson.
The Chicago-based 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Oct. 28 declined to block the plan while Garrison and Johnson pursued an appeal, noting that the program is “not compulsory” and that the plaintiffs could avoid tax liability simply by opting out.
Caleb Kruckenberg, a lawyer at the Pacific Legal Foundation, in a statement expressed disappointment that Barrett declined to block the plan while his clients pursued their appeal but said they will “continue to fight this program in court.”
“Practically since this program was announced, the administration has sought to avoid judicial scrutiny,” he said. “Thus far they have succeeded. But that does not change the fact that this program is illegal from stem to stern.”
Reporting by Nate Raymond in Boston; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Rosalba O’Brien
Big Wall St turnout at flagship Saudi investment summit
RIYADH, Oct 25 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia decided to be the “maturer guys” in a spat with the United States over oil supplies, the kingdom’s energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Tuesday.
The decision by the OPEC+ oil producer group led by Saudi Arabia this month to cut oil output targets unleashed a war of words between the White House and Riyadh ahead of the kingdom’s Future Investment Initiative (FII) forum, which drew top U.S. business executives.
The two traditional allies’ relationship had already been strained by the Joe Biden administration’s stance on the 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the Yemen war, as well as Riyadh’s growing ties with China and Russia.
When asked at the FII forum how the energy relationship with the United States could be put back on track after the cuts and with the Dec. 5 deadline for the expected price-cap on Russian oil, the Saudi energy minister said: “I think we as Saudi Arabia decided to be the maturer guys and let the dice fall”.
“We keep hearing you ‘are with us or against us’, is there any room for ‘we are with the people of Saudi Arabia’?”
Saudi Investment Minister Khalid al-Falih said earlier that Riyadh and Washington will get over their “unwarranted” spat, highlighting long-standing corporate and institutional ties.
“If you look at the relationship with the people side, the corporate side, the education system, you look at our institutions working together we are very close and we will get over this recent spat that I think was unwarranted,” he said.
While noting that Saudi Arabia and the United States were “solid allies” in the long term, he highlighted the kingdom was “very strong” with Asian partners including China, which is the biggest importer of Saudi hydrocarbons.
The OPEC+ cut has raised concerns in Washington about the possibility of higher gasoline prices ahead of the November U.S. midterm elections, with the Democrats trying to retain their control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Biden pledged that “there will be consequences” for U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia after the OPEC+ move.
Princess Reema bint Bandar Al Saud, the kingdom’s ambassador to Washington, said in a CNN interview that Saudi Arabia was not siding with Russia and engages with “everybody across the board”.
[1/3] Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud speaks at the Future Investment Initiative conference, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 25, 2022. REUTERS/ Ahmed Yosri
“And by the way, it’s okay to disagree. We’ve disagreed in the past, and we’ve agreed in the past, but the important thing is recognizing the value of this relationship,” she said.
She added that “a lot of people talk about reforming or reviewing the relationship” and said that was “a positive thing” as Saudi Arabia “is not the kingdom it was five years ago.”
FULL ATTENDENCE AT FII
Like previous years, the FII three-day forum that opened on Tuesday saw a big turnout from Wall Street, as well as other industries with strategic interests in Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter.
JPMorgan Chase & Co Chief Executive Jamie Dimon, speaking at the gathering, voiced confidence that Saudi Arabia and the United States would safeguard their 75-year-old alliance.
“I can’t imagine any allies agreeing on everything and not having problems – they’ll work it through,” Dimon said. “I’m comfortable that folks on both sides are working through and that these countries will remain allies going forward, and hopefully help the world develop and grow properly.”
The FII is a showcase for the Saudi crown prince’s Vision 2030 development plan to wean the economy off oil by creating new industries that also generate jobs for millions of Saudis, and to lure foreign capital and talent.
No Biden administration officials were visible at the forum on Tuesday. Jared Kushner, a former senior aide to then-President Donald Trump who enjoyed good ties with Prince Mohammed, was featured as a front-row speaker.
The Saudi government invested $2 billion with a firm incorporated by Kushner after Trump left office.
FII organisers said this year’s edition attracted 7,000 delegates compared with 4,000 last year.
After its inaugural launch in 2017, the forum was marred by a Western boycott over Khashoggi’s killing by Saudi agents. It recovered the next year, attracting leaders and businesses with strategic interests in Saudi Arabia, after which the pandemic hit the world.
Reporting by Aziz El Yaakoubi, Hadeel Al Sayegh and Rachna Uppal in Riyadh and Nadine Awadalla, Maha El Dahan and Yousef Saba in Dubai; Writing by Ghaida Ghantous and Michael Geory; Editing by Louise Heavens, Mark Potter, Vinay Dwivedi, William Maclean
BoE’s Bailey says agrees with Hunt on need to fix finances
Some Conservative lawmakers say Truss will be ousted
LONDON, Oct 15 (Reuters) – Britain’s new finance minister Jeremy Hunt said on Saturday some taxes would go up and tough spending decisions were needed, saying Prime Minister Liz Truss had made mistakes as she battles to keep her job just over a month into her term.
In an attempt to appease financial markets that have been in turmoil for three weeks, Truss fired Kwasi Kwarteng as her chancellor of the exchequer on Friday and scrapped parts of their controversial economic package.
With opinion poll ratings dire for both the ruling Conservative Party and the prime minister personally, and many of her own lawmakers asking, not if, but how Truss should be removed, Truss is relying on Hunt to help salvage her premiership less than 40 days after taking office.
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In an article for the Sun newspaper published late on Saturday, Truss admitted the plans had gone “further and faster than the markets were expecting”.
“I’ve listened, I get it,” she wrote. “We cannot pave the way to a low-tax, high-growth economy without maintaining the confidence of the markets in our commitment to sound money.”
She said Hunt would lay out at the end of the month the plan to get national debt down “over the medium term”.
But, the speculation about her future shows no sign of diminishing, with Sunday’s newspapers rife with stories that allies of Rishi Sunak, another former finance minister who she beat to become leader last month, were plotting to force her out within weeks.
On a tour of TV and radio studios, Hunt gave a blunt assessment of the situation the country faced, saying Truss and Kwarteng had made mistakes and further changes to her plans were possible.
“We will have some very difficult decisions ahead,” he said.”The thing that people want, the markets want, the country needs now, is stability.”
The Sunday Times said Hunt would rip up more of Truss’s original package by delaying a planned cut to the basic rate of income tax as part of a desperate bid to balance the books.
According to the newspaper, Britain’s independent fiscal watchdog had said in a draft forecast there could be a 72 billion pound ($80 billion) black hole in public finances by 2027/28, worse than economists had forecast.
Truss had won the leadership contest to replace Boris Johnson on a platform of big tax cuts to stimulate growth, which Kwarteng duly announced last month. But the absence of any details of how the cuts would be funded sent the markets into meltdown.
She has already ditched plans to cut tax for high earners, and said a levy on business would increase, abandoning her proposal to keep it at current levels. But a slump in bond prices after her news conference on Friday still suggested she had not gone far enough.
‘MEETING OF MINDS’
Kwarteng’s Sept. 23 fiscal statement prompted a backlash in financial markets that was so ferocious the Bank of England (BoE) had to intervene to prevent pension funds being caught up in the chaos as borrowing costs surged.
British Prime Minister Liz Truss attends a news conference in London, Britain, October 14, 2022. Daniel Leal/Pool via REUTERS
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said he had spoken to Hunt and they had agreed on the need to repair the public finances.
“There was a very clear and immediate meeting of minds between us about the importance of fiscal sustainability and the importance of taking measures to do that,” Bailey said in Washington on Saturday. “Of course, there was an important measure taken yesterday.”
He also warned that inflation pressures might require a bigger interest rate rise than previously thought due to the government’s huge energy subsidies for homes and businesses, and its tax cut plans.
Hunt is due to announce the government’s medium-term budget plans on Oct. 31, in what will be a key test of its ability to show it can restore its economic policy credibility.
He cautioned spending would not rise by as much as people would like and all government departments were going to have to find more efficiencies than they were planning.
“Some taxes will not be cut as quickly as people want, and some taxes will go up. So it’s going to be difficult,” he said. He met Treasury officials on Saturday and will hold talks with Truss on Sunday to go through the plans.
‘MISTAKES MADE’
Hunt, an experienced minister and viewed by many in his party as a safe pair of hands, said he agreed with Truss’s fundamental strategy of kickstarting economic growth, but he added that their approach had not worked.
“There were some mistakes made in the last few weeks. That’s why I’m sitting here. It was a mistake to cut the top rate of tax at a period when we’re asking everyone to make sacrifices,” he said.
It was also a mistake, Hunt said, to “fly blind” and produce the tax plans without allowing the independent fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, to check the figures.
The fact that Hunt is Britain’s fourth finance minister in four months is testament to a political crisis that has gripped Britain since Johnson was ousted following a series of scandals.
Hunt said Truss should be judged at an election and on her performance over the next 18 months – not the last 18 days.
However, she might not get that chance. During the leadership contest, Truss won support from less than a third of Conservative lawmakers and has appointed her backers since taking office – alienating those who supported her rivals.
The appointment of Hunt, who ran to be leader himself and then backed Sunak, has been seen as a sign of her reaching out, but the move did little to placate some of her party critics.
“It’s over for her,” one Conservative lawmaker told Reuters after Friday’s events.
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Reporting by Michael Holden, Alistair Smout and William Schomberg
Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Helen Popper, Ros Russell and Diane Craft
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