Update, 7/18/2025: On Thursday, Netflix announced its Reality Universe Superlative Awards, and three Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders won big. The awards, which Netflix says are to “celebrate those who do the absolute most,” have 10 categories ranging from “Reality Star on the Rise” to “OMG Moment of the Year.”…
Alex Gonzalez
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Move over, America’s Sweethearts. In the opening moments of Netflix’s America’s Team: The Gambler and His Cowboys, Jerry Jones recounts the moment he turned a $100 million profit on a single oil well…
Simon Pruitt
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These days, boots are made for more than just walking. Returning as this year’s hottest accessory, cowboy boots have sparked a global phenomenon as the obsession with western style (or “Hoity Tonk Style,” as we’ve coined it) has become a wardrobe staple…
Leah Frazier
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The Atlanta Falcons defeated the visiting Dallas Cowboys 27-21 on Sunday afternoon in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The much bigger story was how Atlanta’s defense held Dallas to just three points during the first and third quarters.
Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said his team is still searching for “greatness” and “It’s always nice to play together.”
“The sky’s the limit.”
Ahead 14-10 at halftime, Atlanta took advantage of a short field following a Cowboys turnover-on-downs and scored their third touchdown of the game to go ahead 21-10. On the play, Ray-Ray McCloud found some room in the Dallas end zone and Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins found MCCloud on his third touchdown pass of the game to that point. Cousins came into the game with 14 touchdowns, seven interceptions and just over 2,100 passing yards on the season.
The third quarter ended with Atlanta’s defense almost holding the Cowboys scoreless before kicker Brandon Aubrey made a 57-yard field goal to bring his team within eight points at 21-13. That made two quarters, the first and the third, that the defense didn’t allow a touchdown. In a close game that made all the difference.
The fourth quarter began with a long drive capped by a Tyler Allgeier touchdown run and filled with runs and catches by Bijan Robinson. Atlanta went ahead 27-13 early in the quarter by going to their best offensive threat over and over again. Robinson, the Falcons leading rusher, led the team with seven receptions. It ended with the Cowboys picking up eight points on a touchdown and two-point conversion, but to no avail. With 1:24 remaining in the game, Atlanta ran out the clock on the Cowboys.
Back on the defensive side of the ball, Atlanta came into the game with just six sacks this season. Before the first quarter was over there would be two more sacks added to the tally as the Falcons defense held the Cowboys to just three first-quarter points. Dallas wouldn’t score its first offensive touchdown until the five-minute mark of the second quarter when Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott found running back Rico Dowdle in the end zone after nearly being sacked for the third time. Dowdle caught the ball on his back and brought Dallas within four points of Atlanta at 14-10.
The Falcons offense put together successful drives on its second possession, a touchdown pass from Cousins to receiver Drake London, and on its fourth possession of the first half, another touchdown pass for Cousins, this time to receiver Darnell Mooney. The touchdown was Mooney’s fifth of the season and Cousins’ 16th.
Key Stats:
The Atlanta Falcons moved to 3-3 at home following the win. They remain undefeated on the road this season.
Bijan Robinson went over 140 total yards of offense following consecutive receptions in the fourth quarter. After the game, Falcons head coach said Robinson is an example of what it means to be a Falcon. “He just does everything,” said Morris.
Robinson didn’t score, but found a way to lead the team in receptions and rushing on Sunday. On Robinson’s play, Cousins, who used his time with Dalvon Cook in Minnesota as an example, said, “He’s a big deal. I see a running back as a running back, and I also see them as a receiver.” Sunday was the 43rd time Cousins threw for three or more touchdowns.
Dallas Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush came into the game early in the fourth quarter for Prescott, who had hamstring issues. Rush completed one of his first three passing attempts for three yards.
What’s Next:
The Atlanta Falcons will travel to New Orleans to play the Saints on Sunday, Nov. 10. A victory in New Orleans would give Atlanta a 5-0 record in the NFC South and an undisputed division crown. A victory over the Saints would also mean a sweep of both New Orleans and Tampa this season.
Donnell Suggs
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7 Weeks into the season, and the Eagles sit at 3-2. Good enough for 2nd in the NFC East, and 9th in the NFC.
It might not be the perfect situation, but there’s still 11 weeks worth of football to watch. And with the Saints falling to 2-5 tonight, the Eagles will have an opportunity to make another NFC team 2-5 on Sunday.
While Sunday will be the Eagles first divisional matchup on the season, the Giants have already stacked up losses against the Commanders (21-18) and Cowboys (20-15). Not that the Giants were expected to be fighting for a top seed in the NFC, but dropping their first 2 divisional games wouldn’t help.
Averaging only 16 points per game, the Giants offense has struggled with and without Rookie WR Malik Nabers. Managing to score a season high 29 without Nabers against Seattle, and struggling to put up more than 7 against the Bengals.
The good news is, the Giants defense gives up an average of 20.16 points per game.
Falling to 2-4 on the season was the least of the Giants woes with an inconsistent level of play that rivals the Eagles. Much like in Philly, the Giants injury report was stacking up too.
Both of these teams have thrived off their lines. The Eagles, relying on the high-level of play of the offensive line, will be without Jordan Mailata. With concern if Milton Williams and Jalen Carter will be available for Sundays game.
And on the blue sideline, the Giants have an even worse problem. It was announced on Wednesday that Andrew Thomas would miss the rest of the season with a Lisfranc injury, and on the other side of the ball, with 26 combined Sacks, the Giants defensive line has carried the weight of their success. However with Kayvon Thibodeaux on IR for the next few weeks. The list goes on as both Dexter Lawrence AND Brian Burns have yet to practice at this point in the week.
With injuries on both lines for BOTH teams, running backs could make or break the game for either team. The Eagles know what they have, and what they can get out of Saquon Barkley. If Fred Johnson is able to continue to play successfully as the Eagles LT for the next few weeks, the offense might continue to run smoothly in an offense that has only had its two star receivers for 2 games of the season.
Averaging 21.2 points a game this season doesn’t paint as clear a picture of an offense that still hunts for the big play and refuses to take points when they matter. A wounded Giants team provides a perfect chance to get the offense back in full swing, and hopefully see a high scoring team like we did in Brazil.
There’s multiple reunions at MetLife this weekend. Mekhi Becton’s return to his former home stadium. And Saquon’s return to play his former team – and now divisional rival.
Photo Credit: Bill Streicher / USA Today
Tyler L’Heureux
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In case you have not yet heard, the Detroit Lions absolutely destroyed the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon by a score of 47-9. During the game, the Lions’ offense was so dominant that they didn’t need to punt a single time, rendering their punter, Jack Fox, mostly inactive.
But just when you thought the Lions had completely shifted their focus to their Week 7 matchup against the undefeated Minnesota Vikings, they decided to take one final playful jab at the Cowboys. The Lions’ social media team, known for its creativity, tweeted out a hilarious Jack Fox highlight video — and it’s a must-watch for Lions fans.
Since Fox didn’t punt a single time during the game, the highlight video hilariously consists of him holding extra points for Lions kicker, Jake Bates. With every extra point successfully held, the video takes a tongue-in-cheek approach to celebrate Fox’s “big moments” during the blowout victory.
This light-hearted trolling just further proves why the Detroit Lions’ social media team is one of the best in the NFL!
W.G. Brady
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The Detroit Lions absolutely dominated the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, cruising to a 47-9 victory that left Cowboys fans feeling a bit queasy — literally. In a viral video making the rounds on social media, one unfortunate Cowboys fan, or “cowgirl,” as some are calling her, was seen puking in the stands at AT&T Stadium, overcome with what appeared to be the physical manifestation of her team’s blowout loss.
Adding to the hilarity, a Lions fan, proudly sporting a No. 5 David Montgomery jersey, was captured on video doing the “Gritty” dance right past the nauseated Cowboys fan. The contrast of emotions between the two fans — pure joy from the Lions supporter and despair from the Cowboys faithful — perfectly encapsulated the mood in the stadium as Detroit continued its dominant 2024 campaign.
As the Lions head into Week 7 riding high, this viral moment serves as a humorous reminder of the stark difference between being a Lions fan and a Cowboys fan on a day when the scoreboard said it all.
W.G. Brady
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After a well-deserved bye week, the 3-1 Detroit Lions are set to hit the road in Week 6 for a showdown against the Dallas Cowboys. While the Cowboys currently sit at 2-2 as they prepare for their Sunday Night Football clash with the Pittsburgh Steelers, all eyes are on the upcoming matchup in Dallas.
According to DraftKings, the Lions have opened as 3-point road favorites, reflecting their strong start to the 2024 season and the high expectations for this matchup.
The Lions will have some extra motivation heading into Dallas, given how last year’s visit ended in controversy. During the 2023 season, Detroit seemed poised to leave Dallas with a win until a controversial penalty call cost them the game. Late in the fourth quarter, Amon-Ra St. Brown scored a touchdown to bring the Lions within one point, and Detroit opted for a two-point conversion to take the lead.
Initially, they appeared to succeed with a trick play to offensive tackle Taylor Decker, but the officials called it back due to an “illegal touch” ruling, claiming Decker wasn’t an eligible receiver. The Lions attempted another conversion, but Jared Goff’s pass fell incomplete, sealing a 20-19 loss to the Cowboys.
Next Sunday, the Lions will return to Dallas, looking for redemption and hoping to continue their winning streak with a statement victory.
W.G. Brady
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The Detroit Lions may be getting some good news as they prepare for their Week 6 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. After their Week 5 bye, the Lions are set to hit the road for a pivotal NFC showdown against Dallas. However, they could be catching multiple breaks, as Cowboys wide receiver Brandin Cooks is out this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers and could potentially miss more time, including the game against Detroit.
According to ESPN’s Todd Archer, Cooks developed a knee infection following a procedure in New York, raising concerns about his availability in Week 6. This absence could significantly impact the Cowboys’ offense, as Cooks is a key deep-threat receiver who has played an important role in creating space for quarterback Dak Prescott.
Cowboys’ Defense Also in Question
Additionally, it was previously reported that the Cowboys could be without top defenders Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. Both players have been dealing with injuries, and their absence could be a major blow to Dallas’s pass rush and overall defensive performance. Parsons is a dominant force and one of the league’s premier linebackers, while Lawrence provides a consistent edge presence that anchors the Cowboys’ defensive line.
If Parsons and Lawrence are sidelined, the Detroit Lions offense will have a better chance to establish their running game and keep Jared Goff protected in the pocket, allowing him to exploit the Cowboys’ secondary.
The Detroit Lions’ 3-1 start to the season puts them in a strong position as they head into a crucial matchup against Dallas. With Brandin Cooks’ status uncertain and top defenders Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence potentially out, Detroit may have multiple advantages on both sides of the ball. A win against the Cowboys would not only add to their momentum but also send a strong message across the league.
W.G. Brady
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Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images
The New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys game will be played today, live from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. Both teams have momentum coming into Week 2 following victories last week.
Keep reading to find out how and when to watch the New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL game today, even if you don’t have cable.
The New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys game will be played on Sunday, September 15, 2024 at 1 p.m. ET (10 a.m. PT). The game will air on Fox, and stream on Fubo and the platforms featured below.
While many cable packages include Fox, it’s easy to watch the game if Fox isn’t included in your cable TV subscription, or if you don’t have cable at all. Your best options for watching are below. (Streaming options will require an internet provider.)
Live TV streaming service Fubo offers the same top-tier programming you can get from your local cable provider at a fraction of the price. The streamer is a sports fan’s dream considering the sheer volume of live sporting events you can watch on it.
Fubo offers a seven-day free trial, so you can watch today’s best NFL games for free.
Fubo packages include access to NFL games airing on your local CBS affiliate, Fox Sunday NFC games via “NFL on Fox,” “Sunday Night Football” on NBC, “Monday Night Football” on ABC and ESPN, and all games aired on NFL Network. There are plenty of channels for NCAA college football fans too, including SEC Network, Big Ten Network and ESPNU.
If you want to give Fubo a try, now’s a great time to do so: Fubo is currently offering $30 off your first month of any subscription tier. That means you can watch every NFL and college football game airing on network TV this week starting at just $49.99 after a seven-day free trial. Once you subscribe, you can begin watching immediately on your TV, phone, tablet or computer.
Top features of Fubo:
If you don’t have cable TV that includes Fox, one of the most cost-effective ways to watch tonight’s game, and all the major sporting events happening this fall, is through a subscription to Sling TV. To watch the NFL Network on Sling TV, you’ll need a subscription to the Orange tier or the Blue tier. We suggest leveling up your coverage to get more NFL games this fall with the Orange + Blue tier.
That Orange + Blue plan normally costs $60 per month, but the streamer currently offers a half-off promotion for your first month, so you’ll pay just $30. It’s your best NFL-watching option for the season, which includes ESPN, ABC, NBC and Fox.
The streamer is also currently offering big savings on four months of the Orange + Blue tier plus the Sports Extra plan when you prepay for the Sling TV Season Pass. The Sports Extra plan includes Golf Channel, Big Ten Network among others. Prepay for four months of the Sling TV Season Pass and spend $219, reduced from $300.
Because Sling TV does not carry CBS, Sling subscribers will want to add Paramount+ to their bundle.
Top features of Sling TV Orange + Blue plan:
You can watch the NFL, including Fox, with Hulu + Live TV. The bundle features access to 90 channels, including both Fox and FS1. Unlimited DVR storage is also included. Watch every game on every network with Hulu + Live TV, plus catch live NFL preseason games, exclusive live regular season games, popular studio shows (including NFL Total Access and the Emmy-nominated show Good Morning Football) and lots more.
Hulu + Live TV comes bundled with ESPN+ and Disney+ for $77 per month after a three-day free trial.
If you want to catch today’s game live on your phone, check out NFL+. The premium streaming service, starting at $40 per year (or $7 per month), offers access to NFL Network. And yes, that includes games being broadcast out-of-market. To boost your NFL experience even further, you can upgrade to NFL+ Premium with NFL RedZone and watch up to eight NFL games simultaneously.
Top features of NFL+:
Amazon
You can also watch sports airing on network TV with an affordable indoor antenna, which pulls in local over-the-air HDTV channels such as CBS, NBC, ABC, Fox, PBS, Univision and more. Here’s the kicker: There’s no monthly charge.
For anyone living in a partially blocked-off area (those near mountains or first-floor apartments), a digital TV antenna may not pick up a good signal — or any signal at all. But for many homes, a digital TV antenna provides a seriously inexpensive way to watch sports without paying a cable company. Indoor TV antennas can also provide some much-needed TV backup if a storm knocks out your cable.
This ultra-thin, multi-directional digital antenna with a 65-mile range can receive hundreds of HD TV channels and can filter out cellular and FM signals. It delivers a high-quality picture in 1080p HDTV, top-tier sound and features a 12-foot digital coax cable.
If you’re anxiously waiting for today’s game to begin, now is a great time to check out Amazon’s NFL Fan Shop. The Amazon NFL Fan Shop is filled to the brim with officially licensed fan gear: You’ll find jerseys, team flags, T-shirts, hoodies and more, including tons of great gear for the NFL fan in your life. There are plenty of great deals awaiting you at Amazon, too, including some must-see deals on TVs for watching sports.
Tap the button below to head directly to the NFL Fan Shop page on Amazon and select your favorite team.
Below is the full Week 2 schedule for the 2024-5 NFL season. All times Eastern.
Thursday, Sept. 12
Sunday, Sept. 15
Monday, Sept. 16
In the waning moments of the Eagles and Packers Game on Friday night, with Green Bay’s offense down 34–29 and needing a touchdown late in the fourth quarter and desperately trying to get into range for one last-gasp hail mary — Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love was sacked by Jalen Carter.
Writhing in pain on the night Brazilian Turf—Love was taken off of the field and replaced by Malik Willis — who was also then sacked to secure the first Philadelphia win in a season where the Eagles are considered a top contender in the NFC for the Super Bowl.
In another season when the Eagles were a Super Bowl contender, the 1991 season they opened with Philadelphia playing at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers. The Eagles began the season with perhaps the franchise’s best defense in team history, coupled with one of the NFL’s most dynamic quarterbacks in Randall Cunningham. In the second quarter, Packers linebacker Bryce Paup landed on Randall Cunningham’s knee — tearing his ACL — an injury that would sideline him for the rest of the 1991 season.
That 1991 team did give us some amazing moments. The defense was number 1 against the pass, the run, and total yards. During an away game at Houston in a stadium designated as the House of Pain — the Eagles obliterated Warren Moon and the Houston Oilers’ Shoot Offense. In week 3, the Eagles sacked Dallas Quarterback Troy Aikman eleven times in a 24–3 romp at Texas Stadium. Against the Cleveland Browns in Week 10, the Eagles would return from a 24–0 deficit to win 32–30.
Unfortunately, without Cunningham and an injured two-time Super Bowl Champion in Jim McMahon — the Eagles had to rely on a carousel of signal callers like veteran Jeff Kemp — and would miss the playoffs with a 10–6 record.
Some will blame the turf at Corinthians Stadium or the Eagles defense for Love’s injury in Brazil. Everyone must expect a physical matchup for two of the oldest franchises in NFL history. In Brazil, that’s exactly what we have.
PHOTO: Kirby Lee/Imagn Images
The post An ACL and An MCL? appeared first on Philadelphia Sports Nation.
Michael Thomas Leibrandt
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The Detroit Lions have never won 10 or more games in consecutive seasons. Will that change this year?
Can anything keep the two-time defending Kansas City Chiefs from nabbing the AFC’s top seed? Will Jayden Daniels’ arrival lift the Washington Commanders? Could Sean Payton’s Denver Broncos or Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers land among the league’s bottom feeders?
Let’s go to our experts to answer these questions, with the help of analytics and our eyes on the beat.
After running 10,000 simulations of the 2024 season, Austin Mock’s NFL betting model has calculated an expected win total for every team, from the San Francisco 49ers (11.4 wins) to the Washington Commanders (5.9). (You can see the AFC teams here and the NFC here.) Now, our beat writers are here to answer: Is the model too high, too low or just right regarding the team you cover?
Win total: 11.4
This feels just right. The 49ers won 13 games in 2022 and 12 games in 2023. Factor in the exhaustion from repeated postseason runs (the 49ers have played 60 games over the past three seasons), and another decline in win total this season would make sense. But the Niners, assuming there’s a resolution to the contractual situations involving Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk, might’ve actually upgraded their roster this offseason. Seven members of their 2024 draft class made the 53-man roster, including a starter at what had been the offense’s weakest position, right guard. And quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to improve with experience. The 49ers’ defense, coming off a down year, has seen a talent overhaul, which could help them stay in the 11- to 12-win range. — David Lombardi
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Win total: 11.3
Projecting the Chiefs to have the best record in the AFC is logical. But they could have more than 11 victories, especially if they sweep their two-game home series to start the season against the Ravens and the Bengals. The Chiefs are clearly favored to win their ninth consecutive AFC West crown. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have dominated the division, and the Chiefs have arguably the league’s best kicker in Harrison Butker, who usually gives them a critical advantage in tight games. The biggest concern is if their defense slides back in the rankings with L’Jarius Sneed, Willie Gay and Mike Edwards no longer on the roster. — Nate Taylor
Win total: 10.5
The case for the Lions exceeding 10.5 wins is that they won 12 games a year ago with a young roster and obvious holes. This offseason, they bolstered their secondary, added D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport along the defensive line and expect their young players to take a step forward. At the same time, though, the Lions face a first-place schedule, and the division is tougher on paper. There’s a world in which the team is more complete overall but wins fewer games. But I have the Lions at 12 wins again, so it’s a touch low, in my opinion. — Colton Pouncy
Win total: 10.2
If you could guarantee Lamar Jackson will play 15 games or more, I’d say 10.2 wins is a bit low, simply because of how good Baltimore has been in the regular season with a healthy Jackson. However, you can’t do that, so 10.2 looks just right to me. The Ravens have a solid and deep team, but they play a really tough schedule and they have legitimate questions in two key areas: offensive line and edge rush. Those factors need to be considered. — Jeff Zrebiec
Win total: 10.2
The Bengals had a fully healthy Joe Burrow for just five-and-a-half games last year. Their defense looked nothing like its previous self without Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell. They played one of the toughest schedules in the league. Very little went right. They still won nine games. A projection of 10.2 is solid, but I’d be more comfortable going over than under. They have questions, no doubt, but they added veteran safeties, the schedule appears dramatically easier, the offensive line is as solid as Burrow has played behind. As long as Burrow is healthy (all signs are good) with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins outside, 10 wins feels like the floor. — Paul Dehner Jr.
Pick up The Athletic 2024 Fantasy Football Guide to read expert evaluations & everything you need to know to win your fantasy football league.
Pick up The Athletic 2024 Fantasy Football Guide to read expert evaluations.
Win total: 10.2
Mock writes, “Ultimately, this division comes down to how well Eagles QB Jalen Hurts plays.” I agree. And that’s why I still feel comfortable about my 12-5 prediction from the spring. Hurts was noticeably more polished in training camp. He was decisive, effective and dangerous on deep throws. The Eagles’ wealth of offensive talent could produce, at the very least, a top-five offense if Hurts can command this system properly. Owner Jeffrey Lurie has demonstrated patience with his head coaches so long as there’s confidence in a competitive path forward. But it’s worth wondering whether a 10-win season would be considered a regression under Nick Sirianni. — Brooks Kubena
Win total: 10.0
Despite Dallas’ three consecutive 12-win seasons, the model’s 10-win projection is right on line with what most would expect from the Cowboys. After winning the NFC East, the Cowboys have a tough first-place schedule, which includes games against the Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Eagles (twice), Texans and Bengals. If they remain mostly healthy in all of the key spots, anywhere between nine wins and 12 wins seems like a fair projection. — Saad Yousuf
Win total: 9.8
Mock has the Packers’ win total as the fifth-highest in the NFC. I think the Packers will win 10 or 11 games, so it’s just about right and, if anything, a tick low. Jordan Love and company won’t need the first half of the season to work out the kinks of unfamiliarity, and new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley seems to have his unit firing on all cylinders. The biggest question marks are offensive line depth, the kicker position and youth in the secondary. Shore up at least two of those three and the Packers will be a legitimate title contender. — Matt Schneidman
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Win total: 9.7
This seems just about right. A team led by Josh Allen in his prime should always be taken seriously. I’m sure, even with several questions about the Bills in 2024, Allen is why they have the AFC’s fourth-highest win total. But the questions are legitimate. The defense could take a real step back due to cap-cleaning offseason turnover and a long-term injury to linebacker Matt Milano. Plus, it’s a new offense without wideout Stefon Diggs or center Mitch Morse. The Bills could struggle with a tough early schedule, but don’t rule out a second-half surge once all the new pieces jell just in time for the playoffs. — Joe Buscaglia
Win total: 9.6
It’s hard to argue with this projection — and fascinating how tightly the AFC East teams are grouped. The Jets clearly have the most talented roster of the three from top to bottom, and if Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy, there’s no reason they should fall short of 10 wins. They had a top-five defense in each of the last two seasons, and the unit is still mostly intact (and could be even better if/when Haason Reddick finally reports). The offense should be vastly improved. Rodgers is obviously a major upgrade over Zach Wilson and last year’s rotation of backups, Breece Hall is fully healthy, Garrett Wilson is ready to break out and GM Joe Douglas did a good job rebuilding the offensive line this offseason. — Zack Rosenblatt
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Win total: 9.5
This matches the over/under from BetMGM, so the experts are aligned here. However, the Dolphins are coming off of an 11-win season, and with a light schedule to start the campaign, I lean toward the over here. I expect coach Mike McDaniel to field another offensive juggernaut while unleashing some new wrinkles that most defenses won’t be able to handle. I’m concerned about Miami’s defensive line without Christian Wilkins but also love the system new DC Anthony Weaver is implementing. I think Miami gets off to another hot start but will have to fight to get to 10 wins against what looks like a very tough closing slate (at Packers, vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets). — Jim Ayello
Win total: 9.4
If the Falcons don’t win at least 10 games, they’ll be disappointed, and they should be. They said they were ready to compete “at the highest level” when they fired Arthur Smith. They guaranteed Kirk Cousins $100 million. They traded for Matthew Judon and signed Justin Simmons. Eighty-one-year-old owner Arthur Blank is pushing all his chips in and making an expensive bet that this team is better than 9.4 wins. — Josh Kendall
Win total: 9.0
The Texans were a surprise success story last season, going 10-7 and winning the AFC South. Mock projects them for nine wins this season, but I think they could again surpass that. C.J. Stroud has a season of experience under his belt. Bobby Slowik did well as a first-time play caller but will likely find ways to get even more out of Stroud this season, given the additional weapons (including Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon) acquired this offseason. Adding pass rusher Danielle Hunter in free agency should help both Will Anderson Jr. and the Texans’ defense as a whole. DeMeco Ryans’ squad has a good shot at another 10-win season and a return to the playoffs. — Mike Jones
Win total: 8.9
Nine wins feels about right for the Chargers. I had them at 10 in my prediction in May. Consider the extra game the Jim Harbaugh bump. The players are bought in. Harbaugh has led dramatic turnarounds in all of his head-coaching stops — San Diego University, Stanford, the San Francisco 49ers and Michigan. I believe he will have the same impact in Los Angeles. And, of course, the Chargers still have one of the best quarterbacks in football in Justin Herbert, who looked great in practice last week after returning from his plantar fascia injury. — Daniel Popper
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Win total: 8.8
This feels a little low for a team that exceeded expectations in 2023 and added more resources to both sides of the ball. Injuries will be a major factor early, with the Rams returning multiple key players from absence: Jonah Jackson (shoulder), Puka Nacua (knee) and Darious Williams (hamstring). They should get starting right tackle Rob Havenstein (ankle) back either in Week 1 or by Week 3. Starting left tackle Alaric Jackson (ankle, suspension) will be back in Week 3. No, there’s no Aaron Donald — but a depleted Rams team won 10 games last season. They will go as quarterback Matthew Stafford goes. — Jourdan Rodrigue
Win total: 8.7
The Browns have a much higher ceiling than 8.7 wins, and internally, they’d say the roster is better than last year’s version that went 11-5 despite having to play five different quarterbacks. But just one quarterback matters in the present and future, and Deshaun Watson just had an unimpressive training camp while coming off of shoulder surgery. He hasn’t played a live snap in almost 10 months and has played 12 games in the last three years. The Browns have a lot of talent, but can they count on Watson? I’d say eight or nine wins feels right. — Zac Jackson
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Win total: 8.2
The Saints entered last year as a no-brainer favorite to win the NFC South with one of the league’s easiest schedules. They only won nine games and missed the playoffs. Their schedule doesn’t seem much tougher this season, but the NFC South improved around them and New Orleans didn’t grow enough along the roster this offseason. These are legitimate reasons as to why the Saints aren’t the favorites in a still seemingly weak division. So an 8.2-win projection feels fair. These projections also indicate the Saints would miss the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, which would likely mean a new coach and new quarterback for the 2025 campaign. — Larry Holder
Win total: 8.2
Seattle went 9-8 thanks to narrow Week 18 victories in each of Pete Carroll’s final two seasons. Mike Macdonald inherited much of the same roster, so even if his new coaching staff is better, this projection feels accurate. The NFC West is a tough division, and Seattle has legitimate questions at inside linebacker and offensive line. Plus there might naturally be some growing pains along the way with an entirely new coaching staff led by a first-year head coach and first-year offensive coordinator. — Michael-Shawn Dugar
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Win total: 8.1
The Bears trail the Lions (10.5) and Packers (9.8), but a nine- or 10-win season doesn’t feel like a reach, either. The Bears beat the division-winning Lions last year — and coach Matt Eberflus’ defense should be better this season. Quarterback Caleb Williams will have his rookie moments, but he’s surrounded by talent with receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, tight ends Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett and running back D’Andre Swift. They’ll all help with Williams’ growing pains. — Adam Jahns
Win total: 8.1
I think this is a 10-win team. And if the Jaguars play closer to the version that went 15-5 from late 2022 to early 2023, they might have 12-win potential. Of course, a lot will have to go right for that to materialize. My biggest concern is the Jags start at the Dolphins, return home for the Browns, then visit the Bills and Texans. If they aren’t on point and fall to 0-4, there’s no telling what that could do to their confidence. But barring a catastrophe of that magnitude, they’ve got enough winnable games over the final three months of the season to exceed the projected 8.1 wins. — Jeff Howe
Win total: 7.6
Mike Tomlin has been the model of consistency, never finishing with a losing record in 17 seasons as coach. The biggest threat to that streak is one of the NFL’s most challenging schedules. The Steelers play in arguably the league’s most competitive division. The backstretch is brutal, with three games — at Baltimore, at Philadelphia and vs. Kansas City — in 10 days in December. Still, it would be hard to bet against Tomlin’s history, making the 7.6 win projection a little low. The remade offensive line and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith should help. If Tomlin can get to .500 or better with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at QB, he should be able to do it with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. — Mike DeFabo
Win total: 7.5
The Colts won nine games last year primarily with backup QB Gardner Minshew at the helm. Their schedule is tougher this season, but the belief internally is that a healthy Anthony Richardson can elevate the entire team. I agree that Richardon’s dual-threat abilities make him capable of leading Indianapolis to more wins than Mock’s projected 7.5, though the inexperienced secondary could be a big weakness. Assuming the back end doesn’t completely fall apart, I’ll pencil the Colts in for 10 wins and their first playoff berth since 2020. — James Boyd
Win total: 7.5
Internal expectations and fan expectations are much greater than this. According to Mock’s model, the Bucs are 11th in the NFC and third in the NFC South behind the Saints and Falcons. The Bucs won nine last year, and the general perception is they improved in the offseason with the additions of Jordan Whitehead, Graham Barton and Jalen McMillan. Whether they improve or slide might depend largely on quarterback Baker Mayfield, who had a breakout year in 2023 and is adjusting to new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who has replaced Dave Canales. — Dan Pompei
Win total: 7.3
The quarterback selection of Gardner Minshew over Aidan O’Connell didn’t move the needle much, so it’s no surprise that Mock has the Raiders at 7.3 wins, just clearing the Vegas over-under line of 6.5 wins. The defense should be very good, Davante Adams is still one of the best offensive players in the league, and first-round pick Brock Bowers should have a big impact at tight end. Problems could arise if there are any injuries, as the Raiders are not deep and new general manager Tom Telesco is taking the long view with salary-cap space. And if the Raiders get off to a slow start, Adams might call for a trade, so … 7.3 sounds good, but there is some shaky ground. — Vic Tafur
Win total: 7.1
Local optimism is high. And it should be. Kyler Murray is healthy. The talent around him is better. The Cardinals are trending in the right direction. But coming off a four-win first season under coach Jonathan Gannon, 7.1 wins in Year 2 sounds right. GM Monti Ossenfort inherited a significant rebuilding job, and the worst thing he could’ve done was try to do too much too soon. This is the next step. Maximize Murray. Improve defensively. Develop depth. Learn how to win. Reversals can happen quickly, but for the Cardinals, there are no shortcuts. — Doug Haller
Win total: 6.8
There are days when Mock’s projection feels low — and other days when it feels high. Is it underrating Brian Flores’ defense? Is it accurately assessing quarterback Sam Darnold? Maybe yes, maybe no. If you think it’s too high, it’s probably because of the schedule. The Vikings open with the Giants, then face a gauntlet: 49ers, Texans, Packers, Jets, Lions and Rams. Those six teams have incredible talent and high-end coaching. If you see 6.8 wins as too low, you are probably looking at Darnold’s situation alongside Justin Jefferson and head coach Kevin O’Connell and thinking an explosive offense is in store. Both viewpoints make sense. Anyone who thinks they know how it’ll play out is overconfident. — Alec Lewis
Win total: 6.8
This is on the low side of the Titans’ range, but six or seven wins is certainly possible, especially with the tough NFC North on the schedule. This is a very difficult team to project considering the changes and unknowns. A first-time head coach (Brian Callahan) with first-time coordinators (Nick Holz, Dennard Wilson) will rely heavily on draft picks plugged into key roles immediately (left tackle JC Latham, defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat), and hope key veteran acquisitions (L’Jarius Sneed, Calvin Ridley, Chidobe Awuzie, Tony Pollard, Quandre Diggs) have best-case seasons. Oh, and the Titans hope they have a franchise quarterback in Will Levis. They just don’t know yet. — Joe Rexrode
Win total: 6.7
It’s wild to say about a team with a projection of only 6.7 wins, but this seems too high. The Patriots went 4-13 a year ago, parted with the greatest coach of all time and brought back a remarkably similar roster to last season. Drake Maye won’t be starting at quarterback, the wide receiver and offensive line groups both rank among the league’s worst, and the defense got worse in recent weeks after losing its top two pass rushers (Christian Barmore was diagnosed with blood clots and is out indefinitely, while Matthew Judon was traded to the Falcons). — Chad Graff
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Win total: 6.7
This is right on target. The Giants won six games last year and, yes, there was a Murphy’s Law element involved with so many injuries to top players. But it’s not as simple as expecting improvement if the team manages to stay healthier. First, quarterback Daniel Jones has a lengthy injury history, so health isn’t a given. Additionally, the Giants are without some top players from last season’s roster (Saquon Barkley, Xavier McKinney, Leonard Williams). They traded for Brian Burns and drafted Malik Nabers in the first round with the expectation they’ll be game-changers on both sides of the ball. But there are enough question marks with the roster to temper expectations. — Dan Duggan
Win total: 6.4
The model was not kind to the Panthers, who sit ahead of only Denver (6.0) and Washington (5.9). But it feels about right, considering I picked the Panthers to go 6-11 when schedules were released in May. It’s reasonable to think Bryce Young will take a step forward in a new offensive system and with improved blockers and playmakers. But with sizable holes at cornerback and edge rusher, the defense could take a step back. — Joseph Person
Win total: 6.0
This is too low. In 16 seasons as an NFL head coach, Sean Payton has never won fewer than seven games. The Broncos went 8-9 last season, then jettisoned a handful of veterans like Russell Wilson, Justin Simmons and Jerry Jeudy. But Wilson’s replacement at quarterback, Bo Nix, looks more ready to run Payton’s offense than I initially expected. A personnel overhaul in the front seven will make the Broncos better against the run. Many players are in Year 2 in their schemes, and it’s been easy to see the impact of that continuity in training camp. It’s fair to sell the Broncos as a playoff team, but seven wins feels like the floor to me. — Nick Kosmider
Win total: 5.9
The broad oddsmakers set the win total at 6.5, a number that many Jayden Daniels believers find shockingly low. Mock’s model went even lower with a league-worst 5.9 wins. What the projections cannot easily consider is the Commanders’ renewed competitive spirit under coach Dan Quinn. Daniels’ upside and more weekly consistency should push Washington above Mock’s number, but it might take injury and bounce-of-the-ball luck (and better-than-expected CB and OT play) to reach seven wins or sniff .500. — Ben Standig
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; photos: Ryan Kang, Perry Knotts, Jaiden Tripi / Getty Images)
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Cowboys fans shouldn’t lack good grub at games this season. Legends Hospitality, which oversees the food and beverage offering at AT&T Stadium, recently unveiled new menu items for the 2024 season…
Lauren Drewes Daniels
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The longest offseason in major professional sports will be over by the end of the week. Five NFL teams have already opened training camp. Twenty-three more start on Tuesday, and the remaining four kick off Wednesday. The Hall of Fame Game between the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears is less than 10 days away.
So we can officially say the NFL is back, and the power rankings are just as happy about that as the rest of you. The preseason rankings start where last season’s rankings ended — with the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers at the top — but there’s been some movement down the line. The Hall of Fame Game participants, for instance, are among the biggest risers because of one young quarterback who has already proven himself and another who everyone expects to soon.
On with the list:
Last season: 11-6 in regular season, Super Bowl champions
The last time the Chiefs failed to make the NFL’s final four, Matthew Stafford was a Lion, Ryan Tannehill was a Dolphin and Ben Roethlisberger was an active player. That was 2017. Since then, Patrick Mahomes has won 15 playoff games (more than all quarterbacks but Tom Brady and Joe Montana) and never finished a season as a starter short of the AFC Championship Game. Mahomes is 28 years old. If he plays as long as Brady, that means 17 more years to pad what could be an otherworldly stat line.
Last season: 12-5, lost Super Bowl
The 49ers are the NFL’s narrative busters. Need a top-10 quarterback to compete at the highest level? Nope. San Francisco has gone to two Super Bowls and two more NFC title games with Brock Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. There are consequences for missing on a top-five quarterback? Not for the Niners. This team traded three first-round picks to draft Trey Lance No. 3 in 2021 and hasn’t missed a beat despite Lance already being off the team. Kyle Shanahan, despite his near misses, might be underpaid.
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Last season: 12-5, lost NFC Championship Game
The Lions have won more games since Nov. 6, 2022 (22), than they did in the previous 1,769 days (18). These are giddy times in Detroit, and the Lions have responded by throwing cash around, extending quarterback Jared Goff, offensive lineman Penei Sewell and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to big-money deals this offseason. Maybe just as importantly, Detroit retained offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who led the Lions to the fifth-best offense in the league last season based on EPA (expected points added) per play, according to TruMedia.
Last season: 10-7, lost in AFC divisional round
For most of the NFL’s history, calling a team the Lions of the AFC would have been fighting words. Not anymore. The Texans are the cross-conference counterparts of the Lions, which is to say they are their conference’s best-vibes team. After C.J. Stroud’s remarkable rookie season, Houston is going all in behind its young quarterback, re-signing tight end Dalton Schultz and adding wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon to an offense that scored 45 points against one of the league’s best defenses in Stroud’s first career playoff game. If the Texans can survive being this offseason’s hot team, it could be a special season in Houston.
Last season: 13-4, lost AFC Championship Game
The 2023 Ravens were the NFL’s best team for long stretches. The 2024 Ravens are something different. Baltimore has added Derrick Henry but lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, linebacker Patrick Queen, safety Geno Stone, defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, three starting offensive linemen and about 10 percent of a quarterback. Reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson appears to have lost more than 20 pounds. Will he be the same player who has led Baltimore in rushing and passing each of the last five years? Probably.
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Last season: 11-6, lost in AFC wild-card round
In the first four seasons of Deshaun Watson’s career, he had a passer rating of 104.5, a 2.4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and was off target on only 6.4 percent of his throws, according to TruMedia. It’s why the Browns sent three first-round picks, a third and two fourths to the Texans to acquire him. In two seasons in Cleveland, Watson has a passer rating of 81.7, a 1.6 TD-to-interception ratio and has been off target on 15.8 percent of his throws. Last year’s Browns still won 11 games. If Watson and running back Nick Chubb (coming off a knee injury) can return to form this year, Cleveland will be a contender.
Last season: 12-5, lost in NFC wild-card round
In the last three seasons, the Cowboys have won 36 regular-season games and one playoff game. Owner Jerry Jones is so fed up that he … did basically nothing this offseason to improve the team. Head coach Mike McCarthy is back (with a new defensive coordinator — Mike Zimmer, who replaced Dan Quinn). Linebacker Eric Kendricks and running back Royce Freeman were Dallas’ only free-agency additions. Plus, quarterback Dak Prescott will be playing with a $55 million cap hit and in the final year of his contract this season because the Cowboys don’t seem concerned about getting an extension done.
Last season: 9-8, lost in NFC divisional round
Green Bay was the fourth-youngest playoff team in NFL history last season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. In the second half of the season, the Packers’ offense was eighth in the league in scoring (23.7) and fourth in yards per play (6.0), and they won seven of their last 10 games. In the playoffs, Green Bay put 48 points on the Cowboys and then lost by just three to the 49ers in the divisional round. Coach Matt LaFleur and 25-year-old quarterback Jordan Love seem to be getting along fine.
Last season: 11-6, lost in AFC divisional round
Only the Chiefs have a longer active streak of double-digit-win seasons than the Bills’ five. Whether Buffalo can continue that streak is one of the league’s most interesting questions. It lost Diggs, Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse, Tyrel Dodson and Leonard Floyd in the offseason. That means more of the load falls on quarterback Josh Allen, who already carries plenty for the Bills. In the last five seasons, no player has averaged more fantasy points per game, according to TruMedia. It’s not an exact match for on-field value, but it’s a pretty good indicator.
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Last season: 11-6, lost in NFC wild-card round
Questions abound in Philly. Will new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s system suit quarterback Jalen Hurts? How will the offensive line hold up without “the other Kelce,” center Jason who, like his brother Travis, is a future Hall of Famer but, unlike his brother, is not dating Taylor Swift and is now retired? But the biggest question is: What the heck happened last season? The Eagles lost six of their last seven games, and their point differential (minus-59) was the fourth worst in the league during that stretch, suggesting something more than personnel fits was amiss with the one-time juggernaut.
Last season: 10-7, lost in NFC wild-card round
The Rams won seven of eight to end the regular season and dropped a one-point game to the Lions in the playoffs. In the offseason, they remade their secondary and fortified their offensive line. And just like that, 38-year-old coach Sean McVay is back in the fray in the NFC. McVay enters his eighth season already in the top 100 of all-time head-coaching wins (70). Just two years ago, he coached a five-win team and the media job offers were piling up. Now, he’s coaching a contender again.
Last season: 11-6, lost in AFC wild-card round
Through Week 15 last season, the Dolphins led the NFL with 31.5 points per game. From Week 16 through a wild-card round playoff loss, they were 30th in scoring with 15.5 points per game. Did defenses figure out the league’s fastest offense? Did injuries catch up to Miami? Was it just that they played better teams down the stretch? Yes to all three, but coach Mike McDaniel has had an entire offseason to adjust, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa should have lots of motivation playing in the final year of his contract.
Last season: 7-10, missed playoffs
Aaron Rodgers is ninth all time in the NFL in passing yards (59,055), and he realistically could pass Dan Marino and Matt Ryan this year to move to seventh. He’s fifth in passing touchdowns (475) and could pass Brett Favre to get to fourth. These numbers are provided here in case anyone forgot Rodgers actually plays football. And usually pretty well. If he can do that again this year after playing only four snaps before snapping his Achilles tendon last year, the Jets will be legitimate contenders. New York returns most of a defense that was second in the NFL in expected points added last season.
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Last season: 9-8, missed playoffs
The defense that quietly helped power Cincinnati to Super Bowl LVI completely fell apart last season. The Bengals gave up 6 yards per play, the worst number in the league. That’s going to have to be corrected if the vaunted return of Joe Burrow is going to mean much. The quarterback played only 10 games last season because of a wrist injury that everyone in Cincinnati hopes is behind him. In the last three seasons, Burrow’s passer rating (101) is the fourth best in the league, and he’s going to need to be special again this year.
Last season: 7-10, missed playoffs
A quick NFL history lesson: This team used to be referred to as the Monsters of the Midway. That’s right. The Bears were once good but have had only one winning season since 2012 and one playoff win since 2006. So why are Bears fans so giddy? No one in the NFL has added more in the offseason. The list includes No. 1 pick quarterback Caleb Williams, No. 9 pick wide receiver Rome Odunze, veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen, safety Kevin Byard and running back D’Andre Swift. They also overhauled their entire offensive coaching staff.
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Last season: 5-12, missed playoffs
Jim Harbaugh won 11 games in his second season as the University of San Diego’s head coach. He won 12 games and an Orange Bowl in his fourth year at Stanford. He won double-digit games in each of his first three seasons as coach of the 49ers. He won 10 games in his first year at the University of Michigan and a national title seven years later. The former quarterback is an odd duck, but he can coach. And now he has quarterback Justin Herbert, who has topped 4,700 passing yards in two of his four professional seasons.
Last season: 7-10, missed playoffs
The Falcons gave 35-year-old quarterback Kirk Cousins the largest total-money free-agency deal in NFL history (four years worth up to $180 million) and then spent the No. 8 pick on University of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. That’s how scarred Falcons owner Arthur Blank and his executives were after two years of alternating Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder as the starting quarterback. Cousins will be playing in the McVay offensive system thanks to Atlanta’s hiring of former Rams defensive coordinator (and before that Atlanta interim head coach) Raheem Morris as head coach.
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Last season: 9-8, missed playoffs
Entering his second season, Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is 15th in the NFL’s MVP odds, according to BetMGM. His odds are as good or better than those of Cousins, Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson and many more proven players. So it seems the betting markets are putting as much pressure on the young quarterback as the Colts, who seem to be expecting Richardson to be some sort of Superman despite playing only four games in 2024 before a shoulder injury ended his season. He averaged 144 passing yards and 36 rushing yards per game in his four starts, during which Indianapolis went 2-2.
Last season: 9-8, missed playoffs
If you allow Seattle to have a mulligan on the 2009 season, when Jim Mora went a forgettable 5-11 before being fired, the Seahawks have had only two head coaches since 1999. Mike Holmgren held the job for 10 years, and Pete Carroll just finished a 14-year stint. Now it’s Macdonald’s turn. The former Ravens defensive coordinator was a college graduate assistant just 11 seasons ago and is taking over a team that could go either direction. The hopes of Macdonald and the Seahawks rest on quarterback Geno Smith, who is on a career-redefining run in Seattle.
Last season: 10-7, lost in AFC wild-card round
After 17 almost maddeningly consistent seasons in Pittsburgh, it seems like coach Mike Tomlin is going one way or the other in a big way this year. He has two new quarterbacks who come from starting jobs — Russell Wilson and Justin Fields — and a new offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith. Tomlin has never had a losing season in Pittsburgh, but this offensive mix might end that. Or it might rejuvenate a team that hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016. Wilson and Fields both bring dynamic talents to the mix, and Smith has a good history with athletic quarterbacks. It should be fun to watch either way.
Last season: 9-8, missed playoffs
The Jaguars and their quarterback are the NFL’s Rorschach test — is this team the AFC South favorite led by one of the league’s best quarterbacks or is it teetering on the brink of a rebuild? It depends on how you squint. Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 pick in 2021, has topped 4,000 passing yards in each of his two non-Urban Meyer-coached seasons, but his touchdown-to-interception ratio since joining the league (1.5) is 27th in the last three years. That’s Daniel Jones and Garoppolo territory. Meanwhile, Jacksonville went 15-5 from Week 12 of 2022 through Week 12 of 2023 and then lost five of its last six to fall out of playoff contention.
Last season: 9-8, lost in NFC divisional round
Most of the Buccaneers’ offseason work consisted of holding on to their own free agents — quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receiver Mike Evans and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. chief among them. The status quo feels fine to the Bucs these days after four straight seasons making the playoffs. That has happened only once before in the team’s 47-year history. A fifth straight trip would set a team record but likely will require holding off a restocked Falcons team in the NFC South. Given the recent history of both teams, the Bucs probably like their chances.
Last season: 7-10, missed playoffs
Jefferson became the highest-paid non-quarterback in the league this offseason when he signed a four-year, $140 million contract extension. That raise comes with heightened workplace expectations because instead of playing with a veteran quarterback in Cousins, Jefferson will have some combination of journeyman Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy this season. Jefferson already has 4,825 receiving yards, the most by any player in his first three seasons. He’ll have longtime Packers running back Aaron Jones to help on offense this season.
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Last season: 6-11, missed playoffs
The Titans will attempt to play a football season without Henry this year. Maybe it’ll work, but it feels like a bad idea. Since being selected 45th in the 2016 draft, Henry has accounted for 24 percent of Tennessee’s yards from scrimmage. In place of the bruising Henry, new head coach Brian Callahan has added running back Tony Pollard and wide receiver Calvin Ridley to pair with DeAndre Hopkins around young quarterback Will Levis.
Last season: 9-8, missed playoffs
New Orleans’ cold war against the salary cap continues. The Saints, who are scheduled to be $88 million over the cap next year, are paying a lot of old players a lot of money this year. Alvin Kamara, Marshon Lattimore, Cameron Jordan, Derek Carr and Taysom Hill, all 29 or older, are their highest-paid players and on the back end of their peaks. If free-agency addition Chase Young can jump-start his career, it will help.
Last season: 8-9, missed playoffs
The Raiders signed defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to the third-largest free-agency contract of this offseason, so they’re not acting like a rebuilding team. Just a thought, maybe it’s time they did. Las Vegas has had only two winning seasons since 2002 and will be quarterbacked by Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew this season. In defensive tackle Maxx Crosby and wide receiver Davante Adams, the Raiders have two of the most coveted trade pieces in the league. The Raiders can miss the playoffs without Crosby and Adams the same as they will with them, and they could restock with lots of high draft picks if they move them.
Last season: 4-13, missed playoffs
The Commanders signed a host of second-tier free agents in March, but the big move came in April when they drafted Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick. It looks to be a long build behind Daniels. The Commanders were 25th in scoring (19.35 ppg) and last in points allowed (30.5 per game) last season. Former Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn was hired in the offseason to fix things after a long courtship with Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson proved unfruitful.
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Last season: 6-11, missed playoffs
Giants fans should keep Oct. 19 clear on their calendar. That’s when the Georgia Bulldogs will be playing the Texas Longhorns, and chances are at least fair the Giants’ next quarterback will be on the field. With Georgia’s Carson Beck, Texas’ Quinn Ewers and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, the 2025 quarterback draft class should have plenty of options. Of course, maybe Daniel Jones (and his $41 million, soon-to-be $58 million cap hit) will be the answer. His career 22-36-1 record and career 6.6 yards-per-attempt average, which ranks 39th in the NFL in the last five years, would suggest otherwise, though.
Last season: 4-13, missed playoffs
The first Patriots season without Bill Belichick as head coach since Bill Clinton was president starts with a question at quarterback. How long can veteran Jacoby Brissett hold off No. 3 pick Drake Maye? That’ll be up to new head coach Jerod Mayo, the former New England linebacker and linebackers coach. Both Maye and Mayo should get some grace as they start their careers because New England is 29-38 in the last four seasons (yes, that’s how long Brady has been gone).
Last season: 4-13, missed playoffs
The Cardinals enter coach Jonathan Gannon’s second season with more optimism than has been earned by the team’s eight wins in the last two seasons. Quarterback Kyler Murray got some help this offseason in the form of No. 4 pick wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., but it’s the defense that really needs a boost. Arizona gave up the second-most points (455) in the NFL last season. The Cardinals have been the most generous team in the league over the last two seasons, allowing 904 points.
Last season: 8-9, missed playoffs
Sean Payton’s career post-Drew Brees hasn’t gone much better than Belichick’s did after Brady left New England. Payton is 17-17 in two seasons without Brees — one in New Orleans and last year in Denver. Payton thinks he’s found the answer in rookie quarterback Bo Nix, whom the Broncos took with the 12th pick of the first round. Not many people agree with him. Nix was widely considered a second-round prospect who padded his college numbers in a quarterback-friendly offense at Oregon. In fact, Denver’s entire quarterback room — Nix, Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson — makes it seem like Payton just wants to prove how good he is as a quarterbacks coach.
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Last season: 2-15, missed playoffs
Maybe the Panthers really, really wanted Dave Canales as their head coach. Or, maybe more high-profile candidates were scared off by the combination of owner David Tepper and quarterback Bryce Young. Canales had a nice year as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator in 2023, but it was his only season as a coordinator. If he can reverse Young’s career track, none of that will matter. The former Alabama quarterback’s 5.5 yards per attempt in his rookie season were the fewest for any quarterback in the last eight seasons.
(Top photo of C.J. Stroud: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
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Along the way, there was almost no contractual drama. The one big extension handed out, which was to wide receiver Nico Collins, came with zero dark clouds or social media salvos needed. It was just your standard, quietly negotiated $72 million contract extension. The closest thing to drama the last two years has come from cornerback Steven Nelson, ever the agitator, going after Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans with personal insults about their attire and appearance. Needless to say, Nelson is gone.
Someday, the Texans will have off-season drama again. All teams, even the good ones do. I might even say ESPECIALLY the good ones do. The Cowboys, Packers, and Dolphins are all good NFL teams, and all three have high drama going on with their starting quarterbacks right now, as all three signal callers are looking for massive new contract extensions.
As we outlined last week, the average-at-best Jaguars QB, Trevor Lawrence, just secured a contract that ties for the highest average annual value in the league, at $55 million. I would submit that the three quarterbacks we were referring to above — Dak Prescott of the Cowboys, Jordan Love of the Packers, and Tua Tagovailoa of the Dolphins — are all better, more productive players than Lawrence. Prescott and Love, for sure.
So now all three of those teams are in staring contests with their team leaders, who all likely want more than Lawrence. Let’s look at all three of these standoffs through a Texans prism. What should we be rooting for in each of these instances?
DAK PRESCOTT, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott is in the final season of a long term contract he signed a few seasons ago, and sits on the books right now as a $55 million cap hit. This is on a team that also wants to give big deals to WR Cede Lamb and LB Micah Parsons this offseason. The worst thing for the rest of the league would be for Prescott to hit free agency next spring, because the ceiling for QB salaries would skyrocket, likely past $60 million per year, if there were a bidding war. With C.J. Stroud eligible for an extension in a couple seasons, the lower the highest salary stays, the better. So root for the Cowboys and Prescott to agree to a long term deal this offseason at slightly more than Lawrence is making, maybe $56 million or $57 million per year.
JORDAN LOVE, Green Bay Packers
Love is also in line for a big pay day, after waiting three seasons behind Aaron Rodgers, and in his first season as a starter, nearly knocking off the 49ers in the divisional round of the playoffs. Here’s the wrinkle with Love — his agent is David Mulugheta, who famously helped Deshaun Watson exit Houston and get a record setting amount of guaranteed money from the Browns. Mulugheta is also Stroud’s agent. Thus, I am hoping that Love lands a lucrative, but team friendly that allows the Packers to sign some of his teammates to big deals. That would show me Mulugheta is okay having a client who doesn’t push for top money, but instead prioritizes winning, like we hope C.J. Stroud does in two seasons.
TUA TAGOVAILOA, Miami Dolphins
Go on social media and search “Tua contract” and what you’ll find out is that the Dolphins, at least as of right now, have zero desire to pay him at the Trevor Lawrence/Joe Burrow level of $55 million per year. Tagovailoa has been very vocal about how the lack of a new deal is affecting him mentally right now, so here’s what I am hoping for, from a Texans perspective — I’m hoping that Tagovailoa gets no new deal, that he becomes a basket case worrying about it, and that he throws four picks against the Texans in Week 15 at NRG Stadium.
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast, on Instagram at instagram.com/sean.pendergast, and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.
Sean Pendergast
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The Eagles may have made some drastic changes throughout the roster. But there’s still some uncertainty about the depth chart. But with the new coaching changes and acquisitions made in the offseason (and yet to come), there’s plenty of players who will have their opportunity to make an impact on the roster.
Below are a few standouts to look forward to in the regular season.
The biggest change to the Eagles defensive line is going to be the swap of Haason Reddick for Bryce Huff.
In his 4 seasons with the Jets, Huff put up 17.5 sacks (with 10 coming in his last season), as well as 21 QB hits and 10 TFL in the 2023 season. During that season Huff only played 480 defensive snaps (42.22%). When you look at the workload that Haason Reddick had on the Eagles last year, with 862 defensive snaps (74.18%). Reddick posted 11 sacks, 23 QB hits and 13 TFL.
Huff will have big shoes to fill in his opening season with the Eagles. But with a defense the Eagles have gone all out on, hoping to turn things around from the #26 rank they had last season, and 31st in passing defense.
With the 127th pick in this years NFL Draft, the Eagles selected running back Will Shipley. Shipley had 827 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns in his final season at Clemson. Could the Eagles need to reduce Saquon Barkley’s workload, Shipley should be the best available backup. Fans and opponents saw the Eagles overuse of Kenneth Gainwell last season, with only 364 rushing yards. And unless his offensive woes(4.3ypc) were also due to Brian Johnson’s uncreative offense. He should be on a very short leash as the Eagles longest tenured back.
There won’t be much to expect from Shipley in his rookie season if all goes well. But in the event of injury, the Eagles RB depth will need to come into play. And if Kellen Moore’s new offense can bring out the best in all 3 backs, perhaps they’ll be able to make their way into more top 10 rankings.
Who will be the best offense in 2024? 🤔
📝: https://t.co/ltETwxqNAc pic.twitter.com/Zl0841hg6z
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) July 2, 2024
Something I spent most of last season hoping the Eagles would address, was adding another tight end to the roster.
When they signed CJ Uzomah along with Kellen Moore becoming the new offensive coordinator. The offense was going to get some new looks. Uzomah might not have had much to show for his 2 seasons with the Jets, but joining a backup role behind Dallas Goedert might be the perfect setup for his next season.
Throughout Moore’s OC seasons, his teams 1&2TEs had the following stats:
2019(Cowboys)
Jason Witten – 63Rec, 529Yards, 4TD
Blake Jarwin – 31Rec, 365Yards, 3TD
2020(Cowboys)
Dalton Schultz – 63Rec, 615Yards, 4TD
Blake Bell – 11Rec, 110Yards, 0TD
2021(Cowboys)
Dalton Schultz – 78Rec, 808Yards, 8TD
Blake Jarwin – 11Rec, 96Yards, 2TD
2022(Cowboys)
Dalton Schultz – 57Rec, 577Yards, 5TD
Jake Ferguson – 19Rec, 174Yards, 2TD
Peyton Hendershot – 11Rec, 103Yards, 2TD
2023(Chargers)
Gerald Everett – 51Rec, 411Yards, 3TD
Donald Parham – 27Rec, 285Yards, 4TD
Stone Smartt – 11Rec, 155 Yards, 1TD
With productive seasons from multiple TEs across multiple seasons and including a 2nd team should mean good things for the coming Eagles offense. If Dallas Goedert stays healthy for all 17 games of the season, the Eagles might be able to expect a 1,000 yard season from him, let alone how many yards they’re able to get from their TE2, arguably C.J. Uzomah until listed otherwise.
There’s more than just the 3 players who need to make their impact known. But from the draft and free agency, these are the roles that could help define this Eagles season as a success, from positions they could have been lacking in the last few years.
We only have to wait 19 more days until Training Camp starts. And after that, pre-season will be right around the corner.
Photo Credit: Seth Wenig / AP Photo
Tyler L’Heureux
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Growing up playing high school football in the early 2000s, the dream of seeing someone who looked like me playing at the highest level of a sport I loved was one I gave up on early in my youth. For many, representation at the pinnacle of something you obsessed over can be taken for granted. For Asian American kids in sports at the time, it was practically nonexistent. So when I first saw the “Nguyen” nameplate on the back of an NFL jersey, I was in genuine awe.
Someone with my last name in the NFL? And he wasn’t a kicker (not that there is anything wrong with that). He played linebacker, one of the most physical positions in sports, for the Dallas Cowboys.
That jersey belonged to Dat Nguyen, the All-Pro linebacker, who cemented himself as a legend at Texas A&M. He didn’t just have a spot on the roster, he was one of the best defenders in the league. Not only did it make it seem a little more possible that Asians could play in the NFL, but it also created a different type of connection to pro football that I didn’t have before.
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We aren’t related — Nguyen is an incredibly common last name — but for me and the Asian kids from my generation who got to watch him, he represented us on the field. He broke a barrier we didn’t think could be broken, shattering it with every bone-rattling tackle. May is Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander Heritage Month and a good time to reflect on the history Nguyen made and how he got there.
Nguyen and his family shared a similar experience as many Vietnamese migrants in America in the ’80s. During the Vietnam War, his parents made the harrowing escape by boat as the Viet Cong overtook their homes in Vietnam. They started their new lives in a refugee camp in Arkansas before moving to Texas, where Nguyen would grow up and discover football.
His family took up shrimping, a common occupation among Vietnamese immigrants because they did it in their homeland. Beginning in fourth grade, Nguyen spent each summer on the family boat as his brother’s deckhand.
Nguyen’s junior high school coach, Cliff Davis, discovered him while walking the halls looking to recruit kids to play football. Nguyen was nearly 5-foot-10 in eighth grade and could already dunk a basketball. He stood out from his friends. However, his parents initially didn’t support his playing football and wanted him to focus on academics. Nguyen forged their signatures to sign up for the football team.
He didn’t know much about the sport, but as he learned more, he quickly fell in love with the mental side of the game.
“I was very fortunate and grateful that (Davis) taught me to visualize,” Nguyen, now 48, explained. “We went to the gym before the football game and he shared with us a moment. And the moment was when you closed your eyes and you play the play in your mind, saw the play before it happened, called the defense, adjust to the offensive formation, snap the ball and just see it. If it’s a run, if it’s a pass — what’s your responsibility? What’s your alignment? What’s your adjustment? All that quickly has to be diagnosed or decided within a few seconds. If you played it in your mind and you saw it the night before and you line up in the game, it’s a lot easier when you just don’t have to think … you just react.”
Nguyen’s athleticism and instinctual style of play helped him quickly excel on the gridiron, but his double life almost halted when he broke his elbow diving for a fumble toward the end of his eighth-grade season. His parents found out he was hurt playing football but realized he was passionate about the game and that it kept him out of trouble, so they let him continue to play. As he played high school football, the cerebral nature of the sport continued to compel him.
“I fell in love with the game because it was fascinating to me,” he said. “I was one of the 11 guys every time the puzzle was moved. As I got older, the game was so much more interesting because of the situations in football.”
Nguyen became a star for his hometown team and had people from every background chanting his name, but his parents came to only two games. His mom worked two jobs and his dad was on the boat all day. Plus, entering a crowded stadium full of people who didn’t speak their language was daunting. It wasn’t until Nguyen got a scholarship to Texas A&M that he truly felt they embraced his football career.
When he first got to Texas A&M, he thought he was too small and needed to gain weight to be an effective college player, but then he got too big. He couldn’t move effectively and he slid down the depth chart. He almost gave up on playing college football but recommitted himself in the offseason. He woke up at 6 a.m. every day to work out on his own, went to class at 8 a.m. and got in a second workout at noon before working out with his team at 4 p.m. He got into fantastic shape and surprised the team and coaching staff with his body transformation.
He worked his way up from eighth on the depth chart to No. 2. The only linebacker ahead of him was Trent Driver, who had prototypical size and speed. One day, while running sprints, Driver twisted his ankle on a sprinkler. Nguyen got his shot, and the rest was history. He became an Aggies legend, starting 51 consecutive games and amassing 517 tackles and six interceptions.
Dat Nguyen is one of the greatest defensive players in @AggieFootball history. The @cfbhall linebacker is the only player in @TAMU history to lead the team in tackles four consecutive seasons and still holds school records with 517 career tackles and 30 double-digit tackle games!… pic.twitter.com/6Hvg13Qlb4
— College Football Hall of Fame (@cfbhall) September 25, 2023
His parents started coming to his home games, and for the away games, they would have company come over to watch their son play on TV. They picked up how the game worked, but the magnitude of how big football was, especially in Texas, was hard to grasp. Their son went from helping them on a shrimp boat to playing on national television.
Nguyen had one of the best games of his career in the 1998 Cotton Bowl against UCLA, but when he talked about the game, he didn’t highlight the win or his interception and lateral for a touchdown or the fact that he was named MVP of that game. He talked about the feeling when he found out his parents, who were across the country for a wedding, were gathered around a TV with friends and family hooting and cheering him on in the Cotton Bowl.
“That might be the best game of my career,” Nguyen said. “I still have some records there in the Cotton Bowl, and it’s not like some of those records might not be broken, right? And for them to witness that with relatives and family and gatherings and in another state … yeah, that was pretty cool for them to share with me.”
Growing up in an Asian household, winning the approval of the family sometimes felt like chasing after a carrot on a stick that was tied to your back. When you’ve achieved the status of state legend and get a free education out of it, no parent, no matter how high their standards, could resist cheering.
The next achievement to check off was getting drafted. Though Nguyen had gaudy statistics and accolades, he was still undersized (5-11, 234 pounds at the 1999 NFL Scouting Combine) in an era of football when the prototypical linebacker was 250 pounds. Nguyen was one of Dallas’ top-30 visits, so although the Cowboys were interested, he knew he wouldn’t be a first-round pick.
The draft spanned two days back then. On the first day, Nguyen helped a friend move and went to a kid’s birthday party before ending up at his mom’s house where they would watch the end of day one of the draft together. Nine linebackers with better measurables got drafted before him. He then got the call from Jerry Jones. The Cowboys drafted him in the third round. Nguyen would be playing pro football in his home state.
“I landed in Dallas and I thought, ‘Your family left Vietnam to come here just for freedom and you get the chance to play this game we called the American sport and you get drafted by America’s Team,’” Nguyen said.
He remembered in his first OTAs getting into the defensive huddle, getting the signal and calling the defense — something he’d done thousands of times. No big deal. He then looked across and saw Troy Aikman and Emmit Smith, and to his left was Michael Irvin. When the ball was snapped, Nguyen froze and didn’t move. These were guys he watched every Sunday, and just sharing the field with them caused him to short-circuit for a second. Though there were some historically big personalities in the Dallas locker room, he said they respected his play and he never felt ostracized for his ethnicity.
Bill Parcells was hired as head coach in 2003, Nguyen’s fifth year in the league. Parcells came from a 3-4 defensive background and preferred bigger, more physical linebackers. Nguyen was quick, undersized and made plays because of his anticipation and angles.
The old-school Parcells wasn’t easy to impress. But as Nguyen had done his entire football career, he made his size an afterthought and earned Parcells’ trust. Nguyen had a career year in his first season playing for him and was named second-team All-Pro.
“I learned more football with (Parcells) than my 15 years prior,” Nguyen said. “He made the game very interesting. Situational football was a big part of what he did, and I really learned a lot about the game on that aspect of it. He’s a guy that really cares about you as a person even though at times he doesn’t feel like he does. But I’ll send him a text right now, and he’ll text me back. I feel like I’m in that inner circle with him, and it’s hard to get in that inner circle.”
“He could have played for any of my teams,” Parcells would later say after coaching Nguyen.
Nguyen shined brightly when he was on the field, but injuries took a toll on his body. In 2004, playing the Pittsburgh Steelers, some Cowboys defenders had a bet on who would put the biggest hit on Jerome Bettis. Early in the game, Nguyen saw his chance. The play unfolded in slow motion. He watched quarterback Ben Roethlisberger turn around to hand the ball off to Bettis.
“I was like, ‘Oh, shoot, I’m beelining him. I’m about to win this pot,’” he said. “So I’m about to blow him up. All of a sudden I get blown up from somewhere else.”
Steelers receiver Hines Ward blindsided and de-cleated him. His legs were 6 feet in the air and he smashed his head on the ground. The next thing he could remember was the trainer bringing him to his wife and explaining to her that he had a severe concussion.
He went the next morning to the facility to work out, get treatment and attend his position meeting. In his meeting, he looked down at his grade sheet and saw he was given a positive grade on 63 out of 64 plays. He realized he’d just played one of the best games ever — the problem was, he didn’t remember anything past the blindside hit.
The following season, he prepared hard and felt great. He thought he would have a career year but injured his knee in training camp and had meniscus surgery before the season. During a West Coast trip in which they played the 49ers and Raiders, he hurt his neck against the 49ers but played through it. He completed a Cowboys comeback with a game-sealing interception but knew something wasn’t right.
“I remember calling my wife the morning I woke up,” Nguyen said. “I was like, my knees are bothering me. My neck’s bothering me. I don’t feel right.”
After the Raiders game, on the flight back to Dallas, he sat next to Dan Campbell, Nguyen’s teammate with the Cowboys and at Texas A&M.
“I was like, ‘Dan, man, I can see the plays. I can’t get there.’ Like I worked so hard in the off-season just to get a chance to get the edge, right? I put so many hours into it, but I think my body’s just breaking down.”
The next morning, Nguyen told Parcells he needed to take some time off to recover and regroup, and Parcells obliged. Nguyen tried coming back on Thanksgiving, but his body didn’t respond. His arm went numb every time he got hit.
“So that’s when I knew it was over,” Nguyen said. “I was glad I was able to walk away. And, you know, you miss it. I’m sorry, you miss the locker room. You miss the competition. You miss the four seconds of the game when the ball snaps. I can’t explain this to anybody or share it with people because it’s so unique.”
Nguyen retired in 2005 and went on to have brief stints coaching with the Cowboys and Texas A&M. He’s earned several accolades since his retirement including making the Texas A&M Athletic Hall of Fame, All-Time Big 12 Team and the Texas Sports Hall of Fame. But his seven seasons, a relatively long career, were not enough to get Pro Football Hall of Fame consideration. Though he won’t be enshrined in Canton, his career was truly unique. He was the first Vietnamese player to be drafted in the NFL and the only one to date. Nguyen was a barrier breaker, and he hopes his story can inspire other Asian kids to follow in his footsteps.
“I thought when you broke the barrier back then when I was playing, I was hoping that it was open to people,” he said. “I was hoping that more kids would be participants. It’s hard to find. … I mean, even my nephew, that’s going to graduation tonight, he’s a good ball player. I don’t think he’s a DI player, but I think he’s able to play DIII if he wants to pursue it. And then (many kids wave) off the option, but it’s like, man, you never know how you develop your body. It might be small stature, but man, a lot of times, football teaches you so much. But the opportunity to make it and fulfill a dream, man, it’s like no other, though. And I think a lot of them don’t want to pursue it because the chances are against them, which it is.”
(Top photo: Al Messerschmidt and Doug Pensinger / Getty Images)
The New York Times
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I’m not one for letting good players walk out the door.
I know from experience that talent is too hard to replace, even with the best-hatched plan, without taking a step backward. So I understand that, at least sometimes, proven teams need to overpay slightly for the sake of continuity.
But recent contracts for NFL wide receivers have forced me to at least question my philosophy. And that tells me that general managers and team-builders around the NFL are no doubt contemplating that question as well.
It’s not because these receivers lack talent. They are all really good players. But the contract numbers are making the team-building equation more complicated than ever.
The dilemma is twofold. First, if you’re going to pay a wide receiver more than $30 million per year, are you sure he’s a difference-maker and not just a guy who fits your system? And second, is it feasible to pay big salaries to more than one wide receiver on your roster?
Football GM Podcast is back with a run thru the #NFLDraft & more … @RandyMueller_ & I tie together WR evaluation in the draft, WR valuation in the veteran market & what the #bills are attempting, for example.
Plus a few lesser-known players to watch#NFL…
— Mike Sando (@SandoNFL) May 11, 2024
Ten years ago, the NFL’s top-paid wide receivers made about $16 million annually, equaling about 12 percent of the $133 million cap. Today, A.J. Brown leads the way at $32 million annually on a cap of $255 million. That’s still just 12.5 percent of the cap. But let’s look closer.
In 2014, the two receivers making $16 million annually were Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, the clear standard-bearers at the position. There weren’t enough top-of-the-heap receivers that every new contract would reset the market. Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones and A.J. Green signed new contracts in 2015, but none exceeded $15 million per year. Fitzgerald’s and Johnson’s deals weren’t eclipsed until Antonio Brown hit $17 million per year in 2017 (a year after Johnson retired), just 10.2 percent of the $167 million cap.
The receiver market has already been reset twice in the past month, and we are on the verge of another jump with Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase and Brandon Aiyuk all up for new deals. All four could plausibly reset the market, so we might be looking at $35 million per year — which would be 13.7 percent of the cap — or more. That leaves the Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers with big decisions with implications across their rosters.
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Teams must take a hard look at where this money will come from. How much is too much for a non-quarterback? Does it make sense for a position group other than QB to exceed 20 percent of a team’s cap? How would that affect decisions elsewhere on the roster?
Jefferson is arguably the best receiver in the league, and Minnesota should certainly extend him. But the cost will tighten money to spend elsewhere, like on last year’s first-round pick, 22-year-old Jordan Addison, when his rookie deal ends. Of course, if the Vikings’ assessment of J.J. McCarthy proves accurate, a quality quarterback on a five-year rookie contract might be just what the doctor ordered. If I were running the Vikings, I would pay Jefferson and keep churning WR2 at the end of Addison’s deal.
Jerry Jones and the Cowboys probably need to be much more creative in dealing with Lamb. Jones already has a $50 million-plus quarterback quandary on his hands, with Dak Prescott having all the leverage in an endless game of chicken. As long as Prescott is the QB, the Cowboys’ evaluation skills might be challenged beyond most as they seek value from other receivers to pair with Lamb.
If I were the Bengals, I would probably sign Chase — who still has two years left on his deal — as soon as possible to avoid resetting the market after Lamb’s and Jefferson’s deals come in. Cincinnati already appears to be planning to let Tee Higgins walk after this season, which might necessitate another high NFL Draft investment at the position next year.
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The 49ers have a more complicated situation than the Bengals, having already paid Deebo Samuel ($23.8 million per year, $28.6 million against the cap in 2024) and with Aiyuk ($14.1 million against the cap in 2024) in the last year of his contract. Both players’ names have been popular in trade rumors this offseason. The Niners hedged their bet by drafting Florida receiver Ricky Pearsall in Round 1 last month, giving themselves options at the position.
My crystal ball tells me this group will undergo a renovation after the 2024 season. Aiyuk and Samuel are set to count $42.7 million against the cap this season. Add Pearsall and tight end George Kittle and that’s more than $56 million against the cap (22 percent) for four pass catchers. Samuel is the NFL’s eighth-highest-paid wideout and might rank third in the 49ers’ position room when it comes to route running and ball skills. Something will have to give.
Players deserve whatever they can get — I am not here to dispute this — but even NFL teams with the most creative capologists will eventually be forced to pay for their extensions of credit, just like you and I. So what will they do about the rising costs of receivers?
When players get too expensive, nothing speaks louder than cheaper options.
Teams selected 35 wide receivers in the 2024 draft. That’s not unordinary, but the total of seven picked in Round 1 grabbed my attention. Sure, it might just have been a year with several special talents available. But it also might speak to a few other factors:
1. With experienced receivers becoming more expensive, teams need more cheap talent.
2. In this era of seven-on-seven competitions and wide-open passing offenses in college, receivers have more advanced skills at a younger age.
3. Good talent evaluators can identify and sequence receivers properly, with smoother projections to the NFL.
If you can identify the traits — beyond stats, height, weight and speed — that lend to a reasonably high hit rate on prospects, you can find value. These would be my top three traits, which you can find if you watch enough tape, for a receiver to fit any scheme:
• Create separation at the break point and/or change gears while underway in a route.
• See and distinguish coverage with your mind and reactions (or instincts), pre- and post-snap.
• Consistently extend to catch with your hands near defenders, allowing small guys to play bigger and big guys to be great.
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The last few draft classes have been rich in receiver talent. Even in a watered-down free-agent pool this year, there were several good values. In short, you don’t have to pay top-notch to get value at wide receiver.
Some teams, such as the Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, have already picked a lane. (Of course, having a talented quarterback makes it easier for them to consider this road.)
The Packers and Chiefs traded Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill before the 2022 season instead of paying them. Adams got $28 million from the Las Vegas Raiders, and Hill got $30 million annually from the Miami Dolphins. The Bills traded Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans this offseason, two years after signing him to an extension worth $24 million annually.
Though the Adams trade has not exactly worked out for the Raiders, Packers GM Brian Gutekunst has reworked Green Bay’s receivers via the developmental route.
Christian Watson, drafted in the second round in 2022, is a straight-line-fast long-strider who can eat up a cushion, take the top off defenses and catch when he’s covered. His game is similar to that of Jameson Williams, whom the Detroit Lions drafted 22 picks earlier. In Round 4 that year, the Packers took Romeo Doubs, who will make $1.1 million this year after catching 59 passes in 2023. Doubs’ ability to find soft spots and distinguish coverages resembles that of the Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown, at least stylistically.
Last year, the Packers took Jayden Reed (64 catches as a rookie) in Round 2 and Dontayvion Wicks (39 catches, 14.9 yards per catch) in Round 5. Given his acceleration off the ball and out of breaks, Wicks might have more upside than any of the above.
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Sure, it requires conviction in your evaluations, but Green Bay should be lauded for overhauling this group almost entirely with draft picks (none in Round 1), as those four receivers will cost a total of $6.3 million against the cap in 2024. Other teams should try to copy this economic model.
I’m not saying the Lions are wrong, but it’s a useful comparison. They reset the market by paying St. Brown $30 million per year even though he ranked 71st in the NFL in average air yards per target (7.75) and 39th in average yards per reception (12.7) last season. I understand the importance of keeping peace in the locker room and rewarding hard workers and leaders. He fits their system. But that signing might have ruffled a few feathers outside of the Lions’ front office and fans, who think it is money well spent. The Lions did let 29-year-old wideout Josh Reynolds walk, so they have shown they are willing to make tough choices, too.
The Chiefs, no doubt aided by Patrick Mahomes’ presence, have thrived since bailing on the market and going young, like the Packers. The Bills, with Josh Allen, have taken a similar route this offseason, choosing quantity over quality with reasonably priced veterans in Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Chase Claypool and second-round rookie Keon Coleman, after trading Diggs and letting Gabe Davis walk.
Of course, there are still teams on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Seattle Seahawks paid DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett a total of $41.3 million annually (they restructured Lockett’s deal this offseason), then drafted a receiver (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) in Round 1 in 2023. The Philadelphia Eagles paid Brown and DeVonta Smith this offseason a combined $57 million annually (22.4 percent of the cap), even after signing quarterback Jalen Hurts to a record deal last offseason.
The Eagles made those investments after struggling to draft and develop receivers, missing on top-60 picks in Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor, JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Jalen Reagor. I can’t help but wonder: Was paying Brown and Smith a reaction to their previous struggles at the position?
There’s not necessarily a correct way to handle the rising costs at wide receiver. If there is, I’m not sure we know it just yet. Many theories are still being tested.
But here is something to consider: Teams will always have to pay great money for good players at positions where there is true scarcity, like quarterback. But I don’t see wide receiver, especially in the modern NFL, as a position of true scarcity. As a result, the sticker shock of recent contracts has given me pause.
I’m still not for letting any good player walk, but with each market-setting deal, the costs are getting harder to justify.
(Top photos of Amon-Ra St. Brown, left, and Justin Jefferson: Cooper Neill, Grant Halverson / Getty Images)
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Philadelphia’s severe regression to an 11-6 record by the end of the season was a pretty wild scene, and it obviously took them out of contention for the one-seed.
Acquiring it might not have changed their fate, which ended up being a one-and-done finish in the postseason, but having it is essential in the NFL. Once they didn’t, there was little chance for a run to be made.
Since the Eagles didn’t win the NFC East, they get the benefit of having a somewhat easier schedule than they did in 2023. They face the entire NFC South (which might be the weakest division in the conference), the entire AFC North, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Los Angeles Rams, the Green Bay Packers, and every single NFC East team twice.
There are obviously some pretty good teams here, but there are very few that the Eagles aren’t better than. They should be able to handle themselves, especially considering their upgrades in the offseason. There is no true ceiling or floor for Philadelphia, but getting 13 wins is not out of the question. It’ll be a challenge, but achieving this would set them up nicely.
Since they were the top seed in the NFC in 2023, the San Francisco 49ers don’t have the easiest schedule. While they could certainly do some damage, they face five teams that won at least a playoff game (Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Packers, Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers). In addition, playing the Rams twice, the Dallas Cowboys once, the Miami Dolphins once, and the New York Jets once isn’t exactly the easiest set of games, either.
That said, the 49ers are quite possibly the best team in the NFL entering the 2024 season. Sure, they play some tough teams, but they should also win most of them. At 12-5 last season, they were the NFC’s best team. Having a potentially tougher schedule this time around, just matching that campaign would be a likely success for them.
Even though the 49ers are a very good team, the Eagles can expect them to be at 12-5 again. If that ends up being the case, that should be beatable for Philadelphia.
The Lions are a fascinating team to analyze, considering the massive jumps they have made. When the Eagles had a 38-35 showdown against them in Week 1 of the 2022 season, even then, it was obvious that they could be a special club. After going 9-8 that season, they had their first 12-win season since 1991 and their first playoff win since that time in 2023. How much further can they go?
Just like the 49ers, they are being punished somewhat heavily for their success. Considering this is something the Lions didn’t really have to deal with in 2023, their breakout was made just that much easier. They have the Bills, the 49ers, the Packers twice, the Bears twice, the Houston Texans, the Jaguars, the Buccaneers, the Cowboys, and the Rams, which could all give them issues. It’s hard to see a world where they improve upon their 2023 campaign, especially considering they didn’t make any major upgrades in the offseason.
The Lions are certainly a team to look out for, but an 11-win season seems to be about right. Depending on how well some of the younger teams on that list develop, 2024 could be a seriously challenging campaign for Detroit.
The Cowboys are probably the biggest team for the Eagles to look out for, and they will remain that for a long time. For as much as Eagles fans don’t want to admit it, Dak Prescott played sensational football in 2023 and was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Dallas didn’t do much of anything in the offseason, but their core is formidable.
As for their schedule, it is pretty similar to Philadelphia’s, with some slight changes. They take on all of the same teams, minus the Packers, Jaguars, and Rams. Instead, the Cowboys have to face the Lions, Texans, and 49ers. Considering the Eagles are in the same tier as the Cowboys, if not better than them, in terms of where they rank in the NFL, making Dallas suffer just a little bit more is a good sign. It’s a big reason why the NFC East is notorious for never having repeat champions.
Overall, a 12-5 record seems right for the Cowboys. Other than the Eagles, they consistently have their way with the division’s bottom feeders, the New York Giants and Washington Commanders. No team beats the rails off of bad NFL teams quite like Dallas does, so it would only make sense for them to do it again.
There will surely be another team in the NFC that emerges as a legitimate threat. In 2023, the Rams, Buccaneers, and Packers were all surprisingly competitive.
In 2024, a team like the Atlanta Falcons could see some improvement now that they have a solid quarterback in Kirk Cousins, and perhaps the Bears could see their young core see a progression like the Texans did in 2023. Still, the true top-end regular season contenders are minimal in the NFC.
The Packers are another team that could build off of what they did, but they still only had nine wins. Seeing a boost of three or four would be possible but unrealistic.
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Justin Giampietro
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This time around, it’s completely different than the last two years, though. After a 2023 season in which the Texans played 16 games at precisely noon on Sunday, until a prime time finale in Indianapolis, the 2024 schedule will look a whole lot more like the schedule did at the peak of the Kubiak and O’Brien Eras. Expect lots of prime time games, lots of late afternoon Sunday games, and maybe even some international intrigue.
In short, this should be the most exciting schedule release in Texans history! If there is a genie out there who will listen, I have four wishes for the Houston Texans’ 2024 schedule. Here they are:
No opener in Kansas City, please!
Every season opens with the defending Super Bowl champion hosting the season’s first game. The rumors are already flying that the Texans will be opening the season in Kansas City to face the Chiefs. Personally, I’d rather let someone else handle this bit of business. Perhaps I still have PTSD from the Texans traveling to Kansas City in 2020 in this same scenario, a blowout loss, but I’d rather start the season with an easier opener than this one.
Cowboys on Thanksgiving, YES PLEASE!
Now, as far as nationally televised games that I am here for, give me the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving. Of course, the Cowboys, along with the Lions, are traditional Thanksgiving hosts every season. It’s very rare that we get the Texans and the Cowboys playing each other in the regular season, let alone in Dallas. Add to this the budding C.J. Stroud-Micah Parsons comedy duo that’s emerged this offseason, plus the two Diggs brothers, Stefon and Travon, going against each other, and this has real big viewership potential.
Give us a London game!
The league named the hosts of the international games several weeks ago, and two of them are Minnesota and Jacksonville, both of whom are hosting games in London. Both happen to be slated as road opponents for the Texans. This is one that I would bet on, the Texans playing in London. They ;last traveled overseas in 2019, where they beat the Jags by a score of 26-3.
No Christmas Day game, please!
After the success of last season’s Christmas Day broadcasts, the NFL announced a couple months ago that they would be televising two games on Christmas. The big difference, though, is that Christmas falls on a Wednesday this season, which means that the four teams that play on Christmas Day will be playing on Saturday the previous weekend, which also means that they will have two short weeks in a row, six days between a Sunday and Saturday game, and for days between Saturday and Christmas. Keep in mind that this is in the last month of the season, where a playoff push is going on. NO THANK YOU!
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Sean Pendergast
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